The Ringer NFL Show - Are the 49ers Really Drafting Mac Jones?

Episode Date: March 31, 2021

A week after the 49ers traded up for the third overall pick in the NFL draft, rumors are circulating that San Francisco wants to draft Alabama quarterback Mac Jones. We ask ourselves three burning questions to learn why the 49ers may do this. What does Shanahan see in Mac Jones? (0:54) Is a quarterback's landing spot more important than his talent? (27:02) Is a rookie QB ever worth drafting in fantasy? (45:22) Email us! [e-mail] Hosts: Danny Heifetz, Danny Kelly, and Craig Horlbeck Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Baseball season is right around the corner, and Jake Mintz and Jordan Schusterman will serve as your guides to the good, the bad, and the utterly bizarre corners of the baseball world on baseball barbecue. In the run-up to the season, they'll dive into the rabbit hole on some of their favorite fascinations, from the home run derby to baseball brawls and more. Once the MLB season returns, they'll break down the latest news and developments with their trademark wit and irreverence. Check out baseball barbecue on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to the Ringer Fantasy Football Show. My name is Danny Hyphitz, and I'm here with Danny Kelly and Craig Quirlebeck. We have breaking news. There's been a trait.

Uh-oh. I don't know if you guys know this. The 49ers have moved up to the number three picks. I know, right? Like, everyone is probably hearing this for the first time. I think we beat Adam Schaefter to the bunch here. I think he has to drink for that, actually. Does this qualify as an emergency pod?

It's an emergency pod. We're just very slow response. So, okay. So the actual trait is. here. Niners go up to three. Dolphins move down. It's a whole thing. They're picking it six. Eagles are picking 12th. You guys have had a week to digest this for five days, whatever it is.

We're recording this Tuesday afternoon. DK, do you like this deal for the Niners? They trade basically three first round picks to move up to number three in the draft. I mean, it depends. It depends on who they pick. I think in theory, I love the move because basically what it says is

and I think that it's probably true, the 49ers feel that they're a good dynamic quarterback away from being a champion. And If you look at the roster, very good roster. I think Shanahan's a good coach. They were just in the Super Bowl two years ago, last year, whatever, however you want to say it. With a quarterback who is pretty average. Yeah, super average guy.

And that's like maybe being generous. I mean, I think people maybe, I guess, like change history or whatever, like a little bit on Garapagos. It's not like he's terrible. Listen. If the pass was two yards shorter, he's a legend. My dad's a diehard Niner fan. And he was talking to me about the trade the other day on the phone. and he was like, oh, you know, I'm happy.

Yeah, I guess it'd be cool if we got Fields and I just want to get rid of Jimmy G. You know, he's just not doing it. His 24 and 8 record is the starter, I just don't care. And I was like, Dad, if he completed that pass to Emmanuel Sanders in the fourth quarter, do you think you'd feel differently about him? And he was like, 100%.

He's like, but he didn't. Yeah, I was going to say, here's the thing, though, Craig. He didn't. He did not complete the pass. He didn't hit that pass. I just love that we're all aware that if he completed that pass and they won the Super Bowl and beat Mahomes.

But it's not just that. Don't forget. that the previous round of the NFC championship game, he threw like eight passes in the entire game. Right. Like literally eight throws. It was like, Kyle Shanahan's like, you know who's not going to lose us this game? Jimmy. But Jimmy does,

he isn't a different tier if he wins that Super Bowl. Like we now, he's probably just, I know. That says a lot about like the narratives of the Super Bowl, I feel like. You know what else is keenly aware that Jimmy didn't hit that pass? Kyle fucking Shanahan, because he just gave way three first rounders to go get a freaking quarterback. So, okay, as

D.K alluded to, I don't know what you guys, When I first heard this, tray, I get the little push notification. I'm like, oh, my God, Niners going to get Justin Fields. This is amazing. And then, like, the whole Mac Jones thing trickles out. He becomes the betting favorite Chris Sims tweets about it. It's like this whole thing. D.K., you're the person who studies this stuff.

What the hell was your reaction when you started realizing that Mac Jones is like, the betting favorite to be picked third? Yeah. I think still, my reaction is this is a smokescreen. This is a very elaborate. it smokescreen. And even though Occam's Razor is basically

look, they really like Mac Jones. And I mean, look, he was on a championship team, led a really good offense to a championship, blah, blah, blah. Accurate, decisive, good decision maker, puts the ball where it needs to be,

distributes the football, all this stuff. Like, I feel like we're being overly critical of Mac Jones, the prospect, because he's actually a pretty good prospect, you know, based on all the things that he does. but I think the big thing is the ceiling with Justin Fields is so much higher for like what they could do on that offense.

I mean, Justin Fields today had it. So we're recording this Tuesday. He had his pro day today 4-44 in the 40. No, get rid of the 40, DK. We talked about this. I'm just telling you the point is. What about all the times when quarterbacks run 40 yards in a straight line? Whatever.

When they get open on a read option and they just blaze past the entire offense. It would be the second fastest of quarterback's. ever ran at the combine if it were at the combine. RG3 being the fastest. Yeah, that's pretty incredible. Do you think that Mike Vic didn't run that? I don't know what Vic ran. Maybe he didn't run at the combine.

I mean, look, bottom line is he's one of the fastest quarterback prospects. And he's big, tough. He looks like, he has like the body type of Cam Newton. He's a little bit shorter, but, and he's doing that like 4-4-4. So the bottom line is what you can do with this guy in the run game is really, really intriguing. Mac Jones brings none of that. Mac Jones is on the spectrum of quarterbacks, there's like Justin Fields, who is more like a Lamar Jackson meets Dak Prescott.

And then Mac Jones is like... Matt Ryan meets Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan meets game managers more. Like on the spectrum of game manager, if that makes any sense. So I think people are still trying to figure out whether this Mac Jones smoke is real. I think my like bottom line I do think it is real like at the end of the day like if I had to guess I think it is going to be Mac Jones. Wait, you started up saying it was a smokescreen.

What do you mean? You think it's going to be Mac Jones. That was his initial reaction was a smoke screen. My heart wants to believe that it's a smokescreen. My head is telling me it's not. So whatever that means, I don't know. I think that they're going to probably end up taking Mac Jones. But I really want to believe it's for Fields.

DK, you are the draft expert. So I want to like run through a series of quick questions. I want quick answers about Trey Lance, Justin Fields, and Mac Jones. I'm sick of this. I just want to know definitively what you think. Sick of it. You have a month ago.

In brief responses. Okay, I'll try. Who's more accurate? Mac Jones or Justin Fields. And if it's close, say it's close. It's close. Okay. Who is a better arm?

Fields by a mile. All the physical stuff like, like, you know, agility, it's Justin Fields by a mile, right? Yes. Probably two. What about like reading defenses? Who's better? Mac Jones or Justin Fields.

I think that would be where we start to have disagreements. Mack Jones, I would say, gets the nod there. However, and this is like this, sorry, I know you told me to be quick, but here's the context. Here's the context of why Justin Fields is like purportedly falling down draft boards or the NFL doesn't like it as much. In Ohio State's offense, Justin Fields frequently sits there in the pocket and waits for, basically, they run these vertical option routes

where you get like 10 to 15 yards down the field or whatever, and then you make your break. And he's waiting for those routes to develop so he can hit his read. And what that looks like a lot of times is that he locks on to receivers and he can't go through his reads and he's like a slow processor.

That's what it looks like. However, that's what he's being coached to do in some cases, maybe not all cases, but at least in some cases. And so there is this perception and it might be partly true that he's just not quick, he's not as quick of a processor

to go through his reads as some of these other quarterbacks, particularly Mac Jones, He's a very quick processor. He doesn't have any less frequently. He'll sit there in the pocket and take a sack or whatever. That's kind of like the main concern with Justin Fields is his ability to quickly go through his reads, make decisions, get the ball out, or take off. Like he takes too many sacks, basically.

And so I think that is really the big question. And that like that is where people start to diverge. Because like on those first few, it's like clearly fields. But the processing thing is like where Mack Jones kind of starts. to catch up. I also do want to just throw it. There's also the intangibles, and I do want to throw out while we don't get to talk to these guys

who don't know them as human beings. Like the quote unquote grit that feels displayed when his organs were liquefied in that playoff semi-final and then comes out, it just wrecks Clemson. Is the kind of thing scouts freaking are obsessed with, guys who would literally die to play football, is whether you like it or not, what they want. I'm not saying Mac Jones doesn't have that.

But that's also very much a box that they feel. has checked. I just kind of wanted to know if like if these guys were on paper and there, you know, there's a lot of external bias and everything, but it's like if these guys were just written on paper as math equations and you didn't know anything about them, who would look better on paper? Fields. Field.

I think. I think the tricky part about this conversation that makes it pretty hard actually to talk about it is that the actual real concerns teams might have about fields of what D.K. just mentioned of like, is it Ohio State system on House state quarterbacks? Is it like what he's being asked to do on offense and processing? Is he a slow processor? Kind of perfectly overlaps with a lot of the history of like judging black quarterbacks and some conscious or subconscious racism.

And it makes it really thorny to talk about and really, it's a much more complicated thing to dissect than Fields is falling or whatever. So there's a lot going on here. And then you add in the fact that Kyle Shanahan just seems to be obsessed with Kirk Cousins and Matt Ryan, which is also weird. And Kyle Shannon is the guy really in. charge of that organization. Most teams, it's the team president, the GM, employs the coach. The Niners are among the small handful where Kyle Shanahan's kind of in charge. Like, he's running that

team. He seems to want a guy to be his eyes and ears on the field, to be kind of doing whatever Shanahan would do on the field. And apparently I was listening to Tim Kawakami, who's like this long-time Bay Area reporter on the Niners. And he was saying, every time Kyle Shannon starts going on a quarterback tangent, he starts talking to Kirk Cousins all the time. And it's like the idea that Kirk Cousins, this is an ideal quarterback. The idea that Matt Ryan is one of his favorite quarterbacks. Well, who are the comps for Matt Jones? You compared him a Matt Ryan, right? D.K.

Yeah, yeah. Before this whole 49ers thing started. I had him my Matt Ryan as my comp like way before this all started. And Matt Ryan won MVP under Kyle Shannon. Who's the other cop for, and who's the other comp for Mac Jones? Believe it or not, Tom Brady. And obviously, what makes Tom Brady is the mental.

That's not the comp. It's physically. He's tall. He has like the Brady thing. He's slow. Mel Kuiper has compared him physically not like, you know, championship-wise, but physically to Tom Brady. Guess what? The Niners wanted Tom Brady instead of Jimmy G. The reason the Niners got Jimmy G was because they called about Tom Brady. The Pats said no, and then they got Jimmy G out of it. It was like a Coke Pepsi situation. Exactly. It's like we don't sell that here. Yeah, exactly. So a couple things. I want to address this though real quick before we move on from Kirk. because Kyle Shanahan actually addressed this.

I think this was from the other day. And my buddy Kyle Madsen tweeted this out. So in response to like everybody sort of connecting the dots and saying Kyle Shanahan wants a Kirk Cousin-style quarterback, here's what he said, here's what Shanahan said. Quote, to say that my prototypical guy is someone like Kirk cousins, I mean, that's just everybody knows my history with Kirk. We drafted him in the fourth round at Washington.

I got to coach him for three games. We were fired. I left. I thought we'd have a chance to get him here in free agency and I would have loved to have him in free agency until Jimmy came along the year before because I thought we could have won with him, just like Minnesota has.

I think Kirk does a good job for whatever team he plays for every year. There's a number of quarterbacks like that, but that's the only one I've been associated with because people thought I was trying to bring him here, which I was at the time. It's not because that's how you draw it up. Did you say I was at the time or was not trying to bring him here at the time?

He was. But he's the only one I've been associated with because people thought I was trying to bring him here, which I was at the time. It's not because that's how you draw it up. If you're going to draw it up, you're going to drop the biggest, fastest, strongest, and best quarterback in the pocket.

So I think that's pretty ridiculous to say that. I think that being like Kirk Cousins is his kind of guy. But I also tell you, I love Kirk. I know I'm not allowed to talk about other players, but Kirk's a hell of the player, and a lot of people will be lucky to have a quarterback like that. So I think he basically was like, this is a bullshit media narrative, like more or less.

Maybe it is. But speaking of bullshit media narratives, where did the Mac Jones thing even come? come from. I feel like the biggest driver of this is because Chris Sims tweeted out like, this is probably for Mac Jones. And Chris Sims, as we've learned this week, which I did not know, were so close with Kyle Shanahan. I think they went to college at Texas together. They have each other's initials tattooed on them. Yeah. Which blew my mind. They're like best friends going way back. into this?

Yeah. Where is the tattoo? I don't know where the tattoos. They just each other's initials. I don't remember which one of them had never gotten a tattoo. The other one. Apparently they got each other. Isn't this crazy?

Chris Sims, Kyle Shannon, each other's initials on their bodies. So they are like the best of friends. You don't do that unless you guys are like blood brothers. So that's kind of what started. This is Chris Sims is like Mac Jones. This is for Mac Jones.

This is Kyle Shanhan wants a Mac Jones. He doesn't want a Justin Fields. And that's like I really believe one of the key drivers here. Why is that for Kyle Shanahan? How is Chris Sims doing Kyle Shanahan a favor by saying it's for Mac Jones? This is what D.K. was bringing up. I don't know. DeK. What does this do for your conspiracy corner? Yeah, like, is Sims throwing people off dissent of fields or Lance?

By the way, we're like now like 10 minutes into this podcast and I haven't really mentioned Trey Lance. Trey Lance might actually have a better chance of being the big. That was going to be my next question. He didn't go to Ohio State or Alabama, so I feel like nobody knows what to fucking say about him. He also played one college football game last year at the FCS season. was moved to the spring. But before we get to Tray Lance, I just want to make it clear

that he's like on our radar. We're not completely forgetting about him. Today is the, is the Mac Jones versus Justin Fields Day because they both had the same day pro day. And Kyle Shanahan went to Mac Jones's pro day. It's like middle school, dude.

It's like you got to go someone's party, but your friend's got to go to the other party. It's like, this whole thing's ridiculous. We're like at a cafeteria trying to find out who likes who. And you're like, I don't know, but his friend said this. I'm starting to have like major anxiety about what this pick is going to be.

and I don't really even have skin in the game. It's just like, I think this is like one of the biggest intrigues for the last couple of years, who they're going to pick because they gave up so much to go up, three first round picks to go up and get this guy. And logic, I think, would tell you that it wouldn't be for a prospect like Mac Jones. Now, again, that's not saying, I don't, that's not me saying I think Mac Jones is a bad quarterback, but the type of prospect he is is very different from like a Justin Fields or Trey Lance where you have this really incredible dual threat potential

where you can really change the offense in a major, major way. I think basically you can talk yourself in circles. I don't know what the fuck it's going to be. But Chris Sim said it's Mac. What I've been hearing is that it's Mac. Daniel Jeremiah confirmed on the athletic show the other day, he said, quote, of the people that you want to believe

and put your faith in, the overwhelming majority of them believe that this is going to be Mac Jones with that pick. So it wasn't just like, oh yeah, I'm going with what Chris Sims is saying, this is like multiple people in the space, in the draft media space, are like, yes, this is what I'm hearing. The overwhelming majority of like the smoke, if you want to call it that or whatever, is like, this is real. So I'm kind of just going, like I said at the beginning, like I'm kind of just going forward. Like, it's going to be Mac Jones. My heart wants it

to be Justin Fields because I love Justin Fields. And I think he'd be perfect for that offense. And I actually like Trey Lance for that offense more, too. But I think it's. probably going to be Jones. So we can get to Trey Lance in one second, and I do want to talk about him. But I want to stick with Mack Jones for a moment, because I think that this is stunning to people who do this for a living,

and I want to ask you specifically about Matt Jones was fairly consensus kind of the fifth quarterback, or at least outside the top three. We went from Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields as like one, two, to then

Jack Wilson passed him. Now it's Trey Lance passed him. Now it's Mac Jones is moving into maybe third quarter. Right, right. Is this a difference within the NFL, like the 49ers are among a small handful of teams? Again, this is assuming it's real. And they actually, let's just say they take Mac Jones third. Is this the Niners are among the small handful of teams who would prefer Mac Jones for whatever reason?

Or is the NFL either higher on Mac Jones or lower on Justin Fields than the outside people in the media who cover this and that we're now just finding out? I think it's probably different for every team. There's no one answer. I mean, you know what I mean? Like some teams may love Justin Fields. In fact, I saw Dane Brugler said this on the athletic show the other day, and I also saw Gil Brandt tweet this out.

So it's in multiple areas. The great, like, according to people that they've talked to in the league, scouts and whatever, decision makers, Jones. Fields is like expected stockers grade among D. teams ranges from like a top five pick to a round four pick, which is absolutely just. I feel like there was one team who put forth and then you can technically say that, but everybody else hadn't been first. I want to know which team this is.

Show yourselves. But anyways. That one I straight up like, I'm not even getting it. I think that's ridiculous. But it just tells you, I think the bottom line is it tells you there's probably very, like, widely varying opinions on not only fields, but just like overall the top five guys. Like, there's probably, like, a whole bunch of different teams have this order very different. And, you know, like, shake it up and throw it out.

Like, you'll have a different order for every team. So, yeah, I think that's what makes this draft so interesting. You know, and we could legitimately see five quarterbacks go in the first five picks, which was never having before. You've never even had four going the first four picks. Three going in the first four picks has only happened, I think, twice. And so this is just a weird year. You know, it's obviously weird because of all the COVID stuff and how that's changed the evaluation, but also just a weird year because you have all these, like, high-end quarterbacks potentially going in the first round.

Next year's class, apparently, is not very good, so you're going to have teams maybe be a little more desperate to move up and grab one of these guys. And so, you know, all that does is just combined to create chaos. I love it. So I don't buy the next year's class isn't good because Joe Burrow went first and that always heard of him before. And then Zach Wilson is about to go second maybe. And like no one would have picked him to go in the top three. rounds like a year ago. So I think guys do crop up now.

But one more question about Mac Jones. Mac Jones versus Trey Lance. What do you make of the basic framing that Mac Jones is going to go third because he's polished while Trey Lance is a raw guy who needs seasoning? I think you mentioned it earlier, Hi Fitz. You alluded to the... Perhaps there are some racial elements. Yes.

I think that's part of it. The other thing, though, there is a big difference between like the teams they played. Mac Jones played, I saw this from Hayden Wings, Mac Jones played a 98th percentile strength of schedule. He was going up against the best defenses in the country and shredding them, whereas Trey Lance was not. He was playing at the FCS level, you know,

didn't play any good teams, essentially. To be honest, that makes sense to me. But didn't they play the same amount of games in their careers? Yeah, but it's the strength of schedule. I believe they both have 17 starts under their bell or whatever. And so the polished versus raw thing is it gets tricky. But I think what I think if we're talking about like people making good faith arguments, it's like that that Jones has played a much tougher schedule at a much higher level.

It sounds really cool when it's like, well, Matt Jones shredded LSU and Florida and all the SEC defenses. But you're going to say he had an all pro offense. He has Devante Smith. I know Jeline Waddle got hurt. He still has how many of the Alabama offensive linemen are going to be like day, like first? Two days of the draft picks, two or three? Several, yeah. And Steve Sarkesian, parlayed offensive coordinator,

one of the highest scoring college offenses ever. How many of Mac Jones is throw? I get that, like, shredding Florida's cool. But, like, are those yardage totals really due to him? Or is it like, weren't a lot of those guys open that he was hitting? He's underthrowing wide open people. Hi, Fitz. This is, like, why it makes the Mac Jones evaluation is so difficult.

Because, and I think why he, generally speaking, like a month ago, people would have been like, oh, he's lucky to be in the first round. Now he's not going to get out of like top seven probably, you know, if all, if everything goes. So I think this is what makes it difficult. The other thing I want to say about Trey Lance is everything we've heard.

And I've heard Lance zeroing from NFL.com, has mentioned this a couple of times. Like when he gets on the whiteboard and draws up plays, he is like advanced from a football IQ, pro style, all that. Like he's very, very smart, very, very sharp. And so, like, the raw thing that gets assigned him, I think, is based on the number of starts he's had. But he's also very advanced, like, as a football mind.

So I think... This is Trey Lance, not Mac Jones. Correct. Trey Lance is who I'm talking about. At North Dakota State, they've, like, apparently prepared him as if he was on an NFL team. Like, they basically go through every day of practice is, like, what an NFL team would do in preparation for an opponent that week. So he's, like, pretty prepared to hit the ground running. And also, this also, like, makes...

Tray Lance, like throw Tray Lance in there. I think he's actually probably got a better chance of being the pick than Justin Fields at this point because I think a lot of people initially were like Trey Lance is a perfect fit for San Francisco because he comes from this offense where it is very run heavy, very boot action heavy. He's got that running ability.

He's very sharp mentally knows that like he can learn a pro system probably pretty easy hit the ground running. There's all this smoke that they want to keep Carapolo for another year, which would I guess point to the idea that you give Trey Lansom. Lance, who's coming from the FCS. He's coming from a lower level competition with 17 starts under his belt and a year to get ready.

So, like, connecting the dots. And hyphus, we were talking about this in Slack the other days. Like, we're Charlie Kelly, like, putting, like, trying to, like, connect all the, like, yarn on the, on the board. Carol! There is no buffet Sylvia. Yeah, like, this is what we're, like, this is what we're doing right now for the next, we're going to be doing this for the next month, basically, until the draft. But, yeah. end of the day, this is great.

This is great for content. It's great for, yeah, we're the winners of this trade. Content is the winner. So, wait, can I get my ducks in a row here? DK., I want to ask you about Trey Lance because I don't really, I still don't really know anything about him. So I want to do the quick four question game again. So if you do his arm.

It's Passover. Passover's the four questions. You guys don't know anything about this. No, I don't. I don't. I fit, sorry. We're both just like, what? It's very appropriate.

Just keep going. Got it. Got it. Why is this quarterback prospect different from all the other quarterback prospects? Can Tray Lance pass over the defense? No, okay. Here's my first question.

So do you want to do like Mac Jones versus Tray Lance? I want to do all three of them. So if you do Arm, where's Tray Lance? One, two, or three? Two. Behind fields. Accuracy.

Three. Okay. Processing. That's tough. I still think I would put Mac Jones like in a tier by himself and then I'm not... Processing is such a difficult thing to like

see... You have to know the process. You have to know what their coach to do. I'm reticent to like give that a great or like put that those guys in ranks because it's very tough to know. But I would say Mac Jones stands out because he's a quick processor. Okay. And then lastly, physical ability. Two.

Fields and then Lance, I would say. Like I think the reason this is like a punchline and people are like astounded that Mac Jones would be it is because he's not, at least on tape, he's not a good athlete. He did actually run like a 4-7, which was pretty shocking. But, like, he's, he's not a fast mover. He's very much in, like, the Matt Ryan mold of pocket guy. You're not going to kill any defense with your legs. If you look at the last, like, 15 years of football, most of the great quarterbacks are Matt Ryan styles. I know.

But, like, the last five years of football, the best quarterbacks are more like the Dak Prescott style. When we were growing up, the mobile quarterbacks were, like, a spectacle. They were rare. And now the large majority of quarterbacks who are successful are, can, run for third and 10 and you're not shocked. Like if Matt Ryan runs for third and 10, you're like have a heart attack. Oh, I'm worried about him. At like yard three, I'm like, oh God, he is going to get lit up.

But like, now it's if you just pull up the 32 teams and you're like, who is the quarterback? I'm worried. They're like, you're not surprised at all. They can do it. It's a huge change. So, I mean, just think about it from a defensive point of view. Like, obviously, obviously you want a guy.

Like, the first priority is always going to be a guy who can pass. But Fields can do that. Like, that is, I think that is like the. people like me who I love Fields because he can do both. However, I will say, get you a man who can do both. Like, it is definitely the priority, a guy who can pick a part of defense with his arm. It still is, it's always going to be. The one thing that I could see NFL scouts getting freaked out about is the Justin Fields' argument about like, well, he didn't have to do that much.

Like, he didn't have to do that, have that much processing ability. The NFL, you have to do all of that. Like, I could see that being the number one thing that sticks out to them. like arm strength you can get over that like oh he's immobile so is matt ryan so is a million guy so is peyton manning like but i feel like if you start to say like oh he has trouble processing on the field everybody freaks out and all the red lights start to flash and you go just take that chance it's true yeah for sure for sure so i want to put a button on this and i want to just kind of zoom out for a second sure this might be a little bit a hit spong take but i'm serious about when it says

this whole conversation kind of made me reflect on like quarterbacks and picking them and I have two main thoughts. The first is Kyle Shannon wants to take Mac Jones third. Like, who the fuck am I to say, Kyle, you're an idiot? Lull. You should talk to you. You know what I mean? Like, doesn't Kyle know what he wants to the offense?

But the other thing, much broader zoom out is like, I feel like we talk about quarterbacks in the draft completely wrong. Or at least we tell at best half the picture. Because I feel like talent is completely overrated in all of this. And landing spot is completely underrated. I don't care who the 49ers take. They will probably be the best quarterback, even if they take Matt Jones, who I don't think will be a great quarterback.

But if he goes to the 49ers, I feel like it is a coin flip that Mac Jones has a better career than Trevor Lawrence. Or Zach Wilson. Oh, okay, yeah. I thought you were going to say that he's successful. I think if he goes to the 49ers, I'm like, this guy lock it in, he's going to be good.

Literally any quarterback the Niners. Because the infrastructure around them is they're already a successful team. Again, my favorite stat to keep in mind with the Niners and Kyle Shannon. Because everyone says the Shanahan offense, the Shanahan offense. What the fuck does that mean? Here's what it means. Here, the list of players who had the most passing yards ever in the first 16 starts. Patrick Mahomes, Nick Mullins. This is all the time. All time, ever. Every quarterback in NFL Street, first 16 starts, most passing yards. Patrick Mahomes, Nick Mullins is two,

Andrew Luck is three, Kurt Warner is four, and Tony Romo is five. Like, that is what a quarterback-friendly system means, is that Nick Mullins from like Southern Mississippi, whatever college he's from, like comes in and outpasses Andrew Luck in his first 16 starts. Yeah. Yeah, because Andrew Luck went to the shittiest team of all time.

that's the point. That's the freaking point. So here's the thing. What happens if, like I get your talented. What happens if talent goes to the New York Jets? We don't talk about, we talk about these like, here are the quarterback rankings. You know what we never talk about?

What if like the great quarterback goes to a bad team? What are the odds you can actually turn around? Turns out it's really low. Am I crazy? No, I mean, I think your point makes sense because it's like, honestly, Justin Fields, Trey Lance and Mack Jones, they're all probably good.

You know what? The difference between the three of them probably not that crazy. So the only thing that really matters is where they go. And that's what's more interesting. Are they going to have continuity? Are they going to have good coaching? Are they going to have a good support system?

Are they going to have the time to develop? Look at Ryan Tannahill. Yeah. Totally. Look at Ryan Tanniel with Adam Gase and going to Miami. Great example. So, Hyphitz, and to speak to the 49ers, it's more than just Shanahan, too. Like, they have a good skill group.

Yeah, they have a good offensive line. They got one of the best tight ends in the game. game. They have Debo. They've got Iyuk, a really good run game that will support, like the passing game, the play action passing game, all that stuff. I was trying to remember Kittal's name, but it's like, Kittle. They've got Kittal. Best tied in the game, one of them. And all those guys can pick up yards after the catch. They're all versus a pile. Take some pressure off. Yeah, take some pressure off of the quarterback, you know, gives them some layups. And so like, it's more than just the scheme. It's also the supporting cast. They've got, they've, they've sunk a lot of

resources in the offensive line. So it's almost like, I've been thinking about this a lot too, like from a point of view of like me doing scouting reports on these guys because I agree. It's like, these guys are all good. How do you pick who you like the most? It's almost like I wish I could tell you. I wish I could know now which team they're going to be on and then I could tell you like how good they're going to be.

You know what I mean? Because it's like let's just rank, we should just rank the supporting cast of teams that are in need of a quarterback. That's like probably going to give you a better hit rate than the actual quarterback. And so I think it's just like, Haif is like you said earlier, it's like hits from the bomb ticket. It's a very fascinating like chicken or egg

sort of like discussion because all these guys have talent. It's just what are you going to do with it? How are you going to like nurture that talent and, you know, give it a good chance of succeeding or whatever. It really is just nature versus nurture. That's the whole argument.

I think it's nurture. Like nature is if you're even being considered at the top of pick in the NFL, the nature's probably there. Yeah. Like if 30 out of 32 teams are pretty much in consensus, yeah, that guy's going to be like a top five pick, you're probably good enough. Now, they can't know your internal makeup, blah, blah, blah, whatever. But I went through this.

And I was so intrigued by this question. I went through the last 10 years of the draft. And I just kind of looked, who are the guys that are, the quarterbacks that are basically considered good pick. That's a good pick. So just here's the list. Patrick Mahomes goes 10th. Unbelievable. Yeah, that's a good pick.

Well, the Chiefs, everyone gets he's good. Well, the Chiefs made the playoffs three of the four years before they had Patrick Bomes. The year before they drafted Patrick Bomes, they went 12 and 4 before they even had him. They were balling out with Alex Smith. Yeah. Without. So it's like he didn't make the team. He put them over the top.

The other one, Deshawn Watson, obviously that's gone off the rails. He's in a world of shit. But before a month ago, that was considered a good draft pick. The Texans won the division two years in a row before taking him. Lamar Jackson. The Ravens went nine and seven before they took Lamar Jackson. Josh Allen. They're a well-known, like, very well-run franchise.

Yes. Famously smart franchise. The Bills. They made the playoffs for the first time in 20 years before they took Josh Allen. Very good defense. They've done well at drafting. Dak Prescott. That team was stacked. They had a bad record the year before, but like that was the most talented roster in the entire NFL.

Yeah. Great offensive line. They've done really well at drafting, like, skill players, for sure. Russell Wilson. You wrote here best defense the last 10 years. you could argue best defense ever. If they had won, if the Malcolm Butler interception

and that happened, a play that defense was not on the field for and they'd beat their legacy. And Tom Brady and back to back years in the era of passing, they're probably known as the best defense ever. That's what Russell Wilson walked into. The only quarterback of the last 10 years

that I was able to identify that actually is considered like, oh, great pick, that actually turned a bad teamer into a good one was Andrew Luck. Andrew Luck took over a garbage team and made them competitive. not just season to season, but like every game.

It's like you were watching Andrew Luck. He was really as good as promised. Obviously, the totality of his career was upsetting. Right. And they squandered it with a terrible front office that really put no talent around him. The GM blamed him for them not being able to compete. It's unbelievable. But he was...

Because they were paying him too much. It's unbelievable. Like, but here's the thing. Doesn't that list kind of radicalize you? And so when I look, like, like, all... You know what this says to me? The guys who are good, the guys who are completely, competing for Super Bowls.

The tail is wagging the dog. You should look for the competent quarterbacks that go to a good team that's already building something. Who are the good teams that are going to take a quarterback that are building something? The Jaguars taking Lawrence, however you feel about Urban Meyer. I'm kind of not on this bandwagon.

The Jets, I understand Joe Douglas is good. If you squint like enough, you can see them being good, but they have a ways to go. They have a ways to go. When I look at this, I'm obviously going to take the Niners and the team that was in the Super Bowl two fucking years ago.

14 months ago, they were in the Super Bowl. Yeah, like a great defense two years ago. Yeah. Whoever quarterback goes there is my number one quarterback. Yeah, I think that's totally right. Look at Josh Rosen going to the Cardinals, the worst team of all time. Sam Darnold going to the Jets, the worst team of all time. Like, it's not, you know, the only argument you could maybe make high fits is,

what about Stafford? Stafford went to a pretty shitty Lions team. That's fair. You could throw Stafford in. You could throw Stafford in because he took a team that was historic laughing stock. and made them like, like, almost like a fringe playoff team, which is not a competition, but like that seems almost as big of a lift

as taking like a slightly above average team to like the Super Bowl. Like obviously Super Bowl's bigger deal. Yeah. So, 0 and 16 to like 9 and 7's massive. So that's Stafford's fair. Yeah, you need to build the race car before you find the driver.

And there's a lot of teams out there who are missing a quarterback and that's just about it. And those are the teams that like if you want to, know, if you could buy stock in a team that you would want for the next five years. Like somebody like Washington, like they are one quarterback away. Like if they could finagle their way into getting a top five pick, like that's a team where it's like, I could see them in the Super Bowl three years from now if they got Justin Fields. Well, now, but they did just take Dwayne Haskins and that didn't work out.

Well, yeah, but two years ago, I don't think they were in the same spot. It's different. Yeah, for sure. I agree. And that's one of the rare situations where there was like actual seems to be a problem with maturity. And those kept cropping up over and over. And that obviously is real because they freaking released him. So we never got an answer.

This line of thinking, though, Hyvitz, we've talked about this a few times. We talked about it on the NFL show a little bit. But it's kind of changed my thinking a lot on how to view quarterbacks coming into the NFL. It's almost a good thing if you fall a little bit. Yes. Norah was right. Yeah.

It's like not good to be that high of a pick. We went on the NFL show. We're doing the big board for people who don't know. We're doing the big board on Fridays. We're on the NFL show, D.K. and I. And we talked with Nora Prysati about number one picks, the history of number one picks, because what started this thinking for me was our editor Ben Glickspin pointed out that who's the best number one pick in the NFL of the 21st century?

And I argued it was Eli Manning. And everyone laughed at me. And I was like, well, Eli Manning is two Super Bowls. The only other number one pick, does the Super Bowl is Eric Fisher, who's a tackle for the Chiefs. Like, isn't that wild? and then you extend it out to top 10 picks. Think about this. There's been like 51 quarterbacks

drafted in the top 10 over the last 30 years. So 51 quarterbacks top 10 last 30 years. Only three won a Super Bowl with their team. And two are the Mannings. Eli, Peyton, and Mahomes. Those are the top 10 quarterbacks to win a Super Bowl.

By the way, and people are going to point out, Eli wasn't even drafted by the Giants. That's very fair. And so, and there's a caveat there. Trent Dilfer was like technically draft like, well, number one pick, but I think they get a second contract.

A lot of number one picks have actually, like, or not of top 10 picks have actually lost the Super Bowl, but regardless, it's a team sport. You're one of 53 players, and I think we don't think of it that way.

It's almost like it's a job. One person can't change an organization, but one person can help put an organization over the top. There's a fine line. I think there is a fine line because I would never argue that quarterback isn't that important. Or a quarterback is easily the most important position on a team.

However, unless you're like freaking Brady, which I don't even know if you could make that argument. Like, he's always had pretty decent supporting cast. But like, most quarterbacks aren't going to elevate a team enough to make them Super Bowl champions.

It has to be like a number of different variables in place. But I want to pump the brakes a little bit. Like, quarterbacks are very important to a franchise. Yeah, what's the Galaxy Brain take here? If you are a shitty team and you need a quarterback and you have the first pick

in the draft, you should not take a quarterback. You should take an o-linman and get your team. to seven and nine, and then you can drive the quarterback 10. Figure out a way to trade up. Yeah. I mean, it's so hard to get a good quarterback, too. Look at what the 49ers are doing.

I mean, they have a Super Bowl roster, and they're mortgaging their future to go get a guy. You know what I mean? They're trading two future first round picks plus their first round pick this year. So, yeah, it's interesting. I don't know how, man, who is it going to be? This is going to kill me the next month.

Well, you know, one interesting conversation that people were having about Mac Jones, you know, Bill on the NFL show last week, was complaining when Kevin was like, oh, he's, you know, he might be Matt Ryan. And Bill was like, I don't want that. Do you want that? Yeah. I don't want Matt Ryan's career. And Kevin was like, well, you know, MVP, Super Bowl appearance. And Bill's like, cool, don't want Matt Ryan. I would not take Matt Ryan's career. Right. Which is a really interesting conversation, to be honest, because how do you guys feel about that? You know, I think it's fun to grab a quarterback's career and think,

would this career be the number one pick in the draft right now? And Matt Ryan is the comp for Mac Jones. If you knew Mack Jones is going to be Matt Ryan, would he be the number one pick in the draft? To you? Or the number three pick? No, let's say number one. Number one? Oh, man. I mean, yeah, I think so.

He's had a really good career. He helps make his team very competitive every year. I'll have people probably complaining to me about this on Twitter or something like, oh, you want a guy who's going to lose in like the fourth quarter or whatever, blow two quarter elite? Like, I get that. I get all that. Well, Craig started this podcast with three minutes about Jimmy Garoppel missing that pass. Yeah.

True. Give Jimmy that. Give Matt Ryan the Super Bowl. Like, Garapolo's like always hurt, man. Like,

I feel like that's the common theme there on both those teams that choked. Kyle Shanahan, maybe he's the problem. Let's really, let's really dig deep here. Yeah.

What I wanted to ask you guys is, what current quarterback, what's the worst career that you would take is the number one overall pick in the draft? Oh, that's a good question.

Yeah. Like, you can have their career. Right now I got it at Matt Stafford. If you know you'll get Matt Stafford, Stafford, are they going number one in the draft? I think so. Absolutely, because the lines were bad, and he made them good.

Is there anybody worse? Kirk Cousins? Wow, that's a good question. Yeah, throw out a few names. Cousins, no. Derek Carr, no. Dirk, no. I think, I would take Dach Crescott.

I mean, the annoying answer is it depends who's available, but, like, it would be disappointing if you got Kirk Cousin or Derek Carr's career as a number one pick. It would certainly be disappointing. Yes, correct. I think you're right. I think I would roll the dice. Taste some Hill? What about Cam Newton?

He's not even a starter probably. Yes. See, Cam is a tough one. I say yes on Cam. I think yes on Cam. Although it would leave you frustrated to be fair. Right.

But I think you have to take that. But honestly, it might be the kid. Cam's hard because he was so injured. But, wow, this is close. What about Matt Ryan? Would you rather Cam's career or Matt Ryan? They both lost the Super Bowl

and they both won MVP. I think Matt Ryan is more. been more consistent. Cam's had higher highs and lower lows. And the lows have been pretty low. But Matt Ryan's anonymous. Like, there is something intangible about your guy being cool and famous and like he's on your team. Matt Ryan, not only, Cam Newton was the most exciting player in the NFL for brief periods of his time. Right. Matt Ryan is, in my opinion, the most, maybe the most anonymous player in it may be any major sport of the last 20 years for someone who's actually been around for a long time.

Starting quarterback who's never missed a game. And he's won an MVP. Like he's got to be the most... MVP. Do you know one thing about Matt Ryan? He plays for the package. Literally one... No, other he won a VP.

He went to Boston College. Other than things you could find in like the first two sentences of his Wikipedia, do you know one thing about Matt Ryan? He was on a commercial. I can't remember the commercial, though. You know the thumb people

from Spy Kids? He kind of looks like that to me. I'm just saying, is there like... You don't even know what his voice sounds like? Is there like another... Even in NBA, NFL, whatever. Is there like... an MVP that you know literally

nothing about in a sport you follow. It's crazy. You can't pick an anonymous guy number one. Who wants that? Have you guys ever heard of face blindness? There's this condition where people can't recognize faces. It's actually a real thing. I'm not joking about that.

I will say though, Matt Ryan as a person, there's like person blindness. Like, I'm trying to think of the fact that he was in a commercial like doesn't speak well to the company that made him like his, but their spokesperson because I can't remember who he was like,

who he was sponsored by. I can't remember what the commercial was. That's not a good thing. You're supposed to remember commercials. You're supposed to remember personal details about players' lives if they're like a superstar. I'm person blind to Matt Ryan, like his throughout his career.

I have face blindness. As Craig alluded to, there needs to be a line of like, what is the worst quarterback you would take? I don't know who the worst quarterback that I would take number one, but to me, Matt Ryan's definitely the best quarterback that I would not take number one. Really?

Okay. I think I would still take him, but I think he's the line. He's the line. I was going to throw out Teddy Bridgewater, so you wouldn't take him number one. Oh, no.

No. Well, I guess I would have, I mean, it's annoying. It depends who's there. I mean, if you don't have a quarterback,

you'll take Matt Ryan, but it's also 12 years of like, just so boring. But the whole point is, is regardless who's there, if you can snap your fingers and say, Trevor Lawrence will be Matt Ryan

and have his career, would you take it? No. Oh my God. No. I would roll the dice. I think I would. I would roll the dice.

That's so boring. He won MVP. It's like the opposite of love is in hate. The opposite of love is indifference. And I am just more indifferent toward Matt Ryan than any professional athlete. But if somebody was just like, he'll win an MVP and blow a Super Bowl

in the next 10 years for the Jags? Like, you don't think the Jags would take that? No. I think they might. I think they would. I think they would too. All right, maybe it's the Matt Ryan line. That's what we'll call it.

I feel like you get a lot of, like, as a franchise, earn a lot of capital by just going to Super Bowls. You don't have to even win it. Email, you have to win it. Email us at ringer fantasy football at gmail.com. Craig, what's the actual prompt here? Put it in a nice concise sentence.

It's like the Mendoza line or whatever. Yeah, who is the worst quarterback whose career you take first in the draft? Alex Smith. Oh, God. No, I'm not taking it. Yeah, I wouldn't either. So with all that said, should we look at the fantasy impact here

of whatever the hell the Niners are going to do? With all that said, I think that we're pretty down on whoever. The point is that whoever the Niners take a quarterback is probably going to be pretty good. And, like, we're into him. So, like, I'm curious where you guys would take a Niners rookie quarterback. Obviously, there's a massive gap here, whether it's Fields or Lance or Mack Jones. But I'm curious with all that said, what you guys would do with the Niners rookie or any of these rookies in fantasy this year.

And they're like a one quarterback league. D.K., let me ask you, is there a massive gap? Does it matter who goes to San Francisco? Are they the number one quarterback in fantasy drafts? No, I think there is a huge gap. So in my mind, if it's either trade, well, first of all, we got to ask the question whether anyone is going to be starting in year one for San Francisco. It's a good point.

Let's assume whoever they draft, whether it's Mac Jones, Tray Lance, or Justin Fields, they will start in year one. Which is not a given. It's not a given, but let's just assume it for this exercise. I 100% am way more excited about Justin Fields than Mac Jones. Because of the rushing thing, and we've talked about this agnosium, you know, the Konami code, the ability to run. I really think Justin Fields has like Cam Newton-esque upside.

Cam Newton as a rookie rush for like 10 touchdowns or whatever it was. And I think he brings that kind of potential to like be a game-changing player in the fantasy realm. I think Mac Jones could be a very, very good quarterback for the 49ers. However, he's just not going to be the same kind of prospect from a fantasy point of view because he's not going to be a runner. So I think that is like the big thing in my mind. Oh, Cam Rush for 14 touchdowns as a rookie. I kind of forgotten. What if it's Tray Lance?

14. I mean, Trey Lance is in the, he's a tier below fields in my mind. But like from the same point of view, he has that skill set. He did a lot. He ran a lot in college. He was like a very good, powerful runner in college. And so I think I would put him in sort of like the same group, sort of the same maybe like tier as.

As Justin Fields. I would just be more excited about Fields because I think he has a higher ceiling. Mac Jones, I think, you know, he could probably run the offense pretty efficiently and be a good quarterback, but the ceiling is just different with that guy. Is there a landing spot for any of these quarterbacks in the draft

that would make any of them a starting fantasy quarterback and a redraft team this coming year? I think if Fields or Lance goes to either the Broncos or the Panthers, yes. Or the 49ers, clearly. You think they would be one of 12 starting quarterbacks on a fantasy team? Yeah, I do.

I mean, look at what Hertz did last year and his limited ability to start. The rushing thing is so big. I think that, yeah, I think they have a chance to be. I agree if Fields goes to San Francisco or Denver. I want Fields. Not Carolina. I just have less faith. Obviously, Joe Brady, like, it's really exciting, like, in theory.

Yeah. But I just kind of want to see it. Like, I can't imagine playing. the Panthers quarterback in week one of, but like I could envision playing Justin Fields in week one of like with Kyle Shannon getting a whole season to scheme up stuff. Maybe. I don't know about Back Jones,

but like I, and then Broncos, they're just so talented. The Broncos sneakily have an amazing roster. They do. They do. The Broncos are that team then that we were talking about earlier. The Broncos really,

the Broncos are actually right there with the Niners in terms of like, landing spot because the receivers, I mean, they have no offense the first round pick. Jude is a first round pick. KJ. Hamler is like a high end, I think, end second round pick. Second round. Courtland Sutton's coming back. Their offensive line's pretty good.

Their defense is like, I mean, you got Vaughn Miller coming back. Amazing secondary. They just pull up Kyle Fuller. Vic Fangio is like one of the best defensive coaches. Like, it is sneakily maybe the best landing spot for a rookie quarterback. I mean, if everyone wasn't so obsessed with Kyle Shanahan, it would be

right there with San Francisco. Right, right, pretty much. So if whoever falls to Denver is also just, I look at San Francisco. Francisco is like a Willie Wonka golden ticket for whoever's whoever gets there with a quarterback. But Denver's not like a bad consolation prize. I'd way rather be in Denver than Jacksonville or the Jets. Yeah. Also just in life in general.

It seems really nice there you can hike. So we were talking about this subject basically offline. And I think I really was just like, am I getting too excited about the potential for your, you know, Justin Fields, Tray Lance on, you know, a rookie contract? Really even like talking about Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson. should I be excited about rookie quarterbacks? Because I feel like I'm very excited, but maybe I'm like just stuck in rookie zone

and I'm like, you know, I'm doing the draft guide and in that like color. You got tunnel vision. Yeah, exactly. I've like a little bit of myopia. I'm just like, these guys are awesome. And then lo and behold, when the season starts, it's like, you know, they're going to have,

they're going to take their rookie lumps. They're going to be, you know, maybe not as good as you were hoping or not quite as efficient as you were hoping. So I, so we were talking about this. So we went back over the last 10 years because I think we can all acknowledge like over the last 10 years, NFL has changed. And we looked at basically the history of rookie quarterbacks in fantasy and kind of like tried to decide what the hit rate was, what the expectation should be, maybe.

So do you want to, Craig, should we just go through it or how do you want to do this? Yeah, sure. Yeah, basically, if you're thinking about drafting a rookie quarterback in a redraft league, their first year, pause. No matter how cool or exciting they are, you probably shouldn't do it. And here's why. In the last 10 seasons, 44 quarterbacks have started

four or more games in their rookie season. 44 quarterbacks, seven of them have finished in the top 10 in fantasy points. Seven out of 44? Not a great hit rate. 15%. So literally a dice roll.

Because that's a six. Literally. Cam Newton, RG3, Andrew Luck, Dak Prescott, Deshawn Watson, Jalen Hertz, and Justin Herbert. And Jalen Hertz is close

because he played four games. So it's like, is that really helping your fantasy team? Like maybe it'll win a playoff. That probably doesn't even count, yeah. And you can expand it to It goes from seven quarterbacks to nine If you want to make it the top 12

And so the top 10 Then you add Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray But yeah I mean Of those nine quarterbacks The average NFL draft position Of those nine is 31st in the draft It's not like all these guys are first second pick Here's how they go

Cam Newton went one As did Andrew Luck and Kyler Murray RG3 went two Herbert 6 DeShahn Watson 12 And then you go really low Jalen Hertz 53 overall Russell Wilson

75th overall and Dak Press got 135th overall. It wasn't like super skewed to the last few years either. It was Cam, RG3, Luck, Dak, Deshawn, Hertz, Herbert. It's almost like, I don't know what the line would look like over the years, but that's like, and then you add Russell and Kyler Murray. It's not just like a bunch of guys in the last few years, is what I'm saying. It's basically spread out over the last decade.

And a few of those were just unpredictable. Yes. No one fucking knows. Dak, Deshawn, and Herbert were all really good immediately as fantasy players, and it was really hard to, it was just, I mean, quite frankly, very few people saw that coming. No one saw Dak because he was a fourth round pick and he was Brian Romo. Yeah, that's a fourth round pick. Yeah, exactly. And Herbert, it's not like Herbert was, people were like, yeah, Herbert, you know. Oh, speaking of Herbert, I want to speak to this Herbert

point right now just because I think it's interesting and funny. Basically, Herbert was, in a lot of ways the Mac Jones of last year's draft he was the forgotten guy he was the guy that draft Twitter kind of shit on you're right and people were low on him I'm speaking in generalities obviously there's some people that really liked him but like overall

I'd say draft Twitter was like this guy's a joke not a joke necessarily but he's not nearly as like good as these other guys nothing he showed us in college just like makes us get excited he comes out and lights it the fuck up like he was really good and honestly you could go back and watch his tape

from college and be like, what, where did this come from? But I need you to define draft Twitter for people who are mentally healthy and don't know what that is. I mean, draft Twitter is just basically like a little bit of an echo chamber on Twitter of guys that study the draft and women that study draft. And basically, you know, there's a lot of group think that goes on. And you get, you got a lot of people that are sort of like the tastemakers, you know, the really smart people, Dan and Jeremiah, Dan Brugler, Lance Eerling. When they say things, those things catch on quickly among basically everybody else.

And I mean, it's very difficult, I would say it's very difficult to, like, be completely objective when you see the NFL. And, like, it's very hard to be, I think, completely objective. When you see people in the NFL love Mac Jones, you're like, what do I not see? You know what I mean?

It, like, makes you, like, think, well, maybe I'm missing something, even though, like, the NFL's wrong all the time, too. You know what I mean? It's just like, we're all just out here guessing. But I think it's hard to, like, maintain objectivity. or like full confidence that you are seeing it fully clearly, I guess.

If, and Daniel Jones is another example. Like, I was really low on Daniel Jones, the NFL, Dave Gettleman, clearly very high on Jones. And then somewhere in the middle. I think he's landed somewhere in the middle. He was clearly much better than I gave him credit for. I'm going to say that because I think it's absolutely true. However, he's definitely not, or at least he hasn't been yet, as good as like the Giants thought he was. So, you know, it's one of those things where I'm just,

like I'm pumping the brakes on being like Mac Jones. This is a fucking joke. Three overall. You know what I mean? Because I think everything we just talked about, like landing spot is so huge. It's very, very difficult to like separate scheme from talent from teammates, from competition, all that shit.

So basically, Herbert, I think was a good lesson to be like, all right, well, you know, like just pump your brakes. Like these guys are all different, like human beings. Like everybody develops at a different speed. Everyone has a different skill set. it's all very unique situations and we shouldn't just immediately assume we're guys going to suck at the NFL level.

I know that makes me kind of want to buy into Mac Jones to be honest. And that's the point. That was exactly what I was going to say is like the easiest way to like get value in fantasy is to like go against like basically if everyone in draft Twitter and everyone on Twitter

in general agrees on one thing then you know it's going to be wrong basically. Draft Twitter thinks one thing and then you and Kyle Shanahan think the other. I'm going to go with Kyle Shanahan and said some moron And by the way, I'm including myself, I'm including myself in draft Twitter. I'm not like saying they. I'm just saying like, you know what I mean?

It's like if the overall consensus is one thing, it's like, that's like the surest sign that it's incorrect. So I think one notable thing about these, these nine guys who had a strong rookie fantasy season, literally every single one of them is mobile. The least mobile guy on here is like Justin Herbert, I guess, Andrew Luck. Herbert's pretty mobile. But he's not like a Konami code guy. Herbert can run. But to temper your expectations here, so those nine guys finished in the top 12, their rookie season. The remaining 35 quarterbacks who made up that 44 quarterbacks who started four plus games in their first season.

These are rookie starters, right? Rookie starters. Okay. Say those numbers again? 44 quarterbacks have started four plus games in the last 10 years. Nine of them were good. The other 35, their average finish, their first year was QB28. So it doesn't work, and it doesn't work.

Worse than a backup in a one quarterback league. So my recommendation there would be, don't draft a rookie quarterback unless they're mobile. But based on all this, it's also look for them in free agency and on waivers because the ones who are good seem to be good immediately. Jalen Hertz last year, like puts a 25, go get them. Because if they can do it, they seem to be able to keep doing it. So it seems to be the theme here is don't draft rookie quarterbacks,

but pick them up if they're scoring really quickly. Yeah. So let's get back to the 90s here for a second. Who do you think they should take? And what's that fantasy expectation for them? And who do you think they're going to take? And what's the fantasy expectation? I think they should take Justin Fields.

He's my number two ranked quarterback, my number two ranked player in this draft, which is only behind Lawrence. I think he's really, really talented. He has that pure blazing speed as a runner, but he's also a very good passer. I think they should take him. I think they're probably like right now, if I had to put money on it, I guess I would say Mac Jones

because that's like what everyone is saying. But in my heart of hearts, I feel like it's a smokescreen. Yeah, they're spreading disinformation like it's the internet research agency or something. I guess that's how it's how well. I mean, let's be honest. It's probably Akron's Razor says it's Mac Jones because there's like they went to his pro day. All these reports are that they love him. He's just like, you know, coming off of a national title, all that stuff.

but I don't know in my heart of hearts I think it's maybe Justin Fields So there's one option here that's not been discussed and that's what they spent three first round picks

to move up they could have just tossed out like a third or fourth rounder to the Los Angeles Chargers and traded for backup quarterback Craig Horrell Thank you Thank you

He's a NorCal guy I don't know if he Instagrams a lot with the jackets but I think he can plop he's probably not a cold weather guy but still it wouldn't cost much his Shanhan system if Nick Mollins can pass

for the second most yards ever I feel like Craig Horrell back to crack the top five. He could beat Romo for sure. So I feel like that's really just the missing link here. Craig, is he that much worse than Mac Jones? No, certainly not. Listen, I mean, like, I got the intangibles one. We obviously know that. Like, you can hear me talk for hours every week. Like, if you want to know my personality, like, how many other quarterbacks can you hear their thoughts? Yeah. And you've got grit. Like Fields played through that injury. You played through an eye thing today. I got to, I went to the eye doctor's day. I have a great frame. Listen, I'm from the bay. I'm six to, I got a

Six-four wingspan. My dad's a die-hard-niner fan. I'll come in whipping out the word hell-a, left and right. Born and raised. Got a six-four wings, fan. You can whip that thing. High school basketball, high school volleyball. What else do you really need?

Do you have Jared Goff hands, like little baby hands? No, I got large, average to large hands, I would say. Average to large hands. Oh, my guy. I think I'm a sure bet. I wanted to say one thing here. Did you guys listen to Rosillo last week? Did you hear him do that thing where he went back and looked at like draft picks from five years ago and saw if any of them were still on the team that drafted them?

Yeah, do the recap though. Because he was talking about Aaron Gordon getting trade to the nuggets. And everyone's like, ooh, Aaron Gordon, lottery pick. Like this is cool. We're getting a lottery pick. And he's like, yeah, none of these lottery picks work out. None of these guys get signed to a second contract on their team. They're literally always on different teams.

So you shouldn't get excited that you're getting a used lottery pick because there's a reason why they're used essentially. So just looking at this list that we've put together from all these quarterbacks, if you go back five years from now, there is one quarterback in that draft who's on the team that drafted him, and that's Dak Prescott. 2015, zero quarterbacks are on the team that drafted them. 2014, the only one is Derek Carr. 2013, zero. 2012, Russell Wilson. 2011, zero. There have been three quarterbacks from 2011 to 2016, still on the team that drafted them.

That's only 10 years ago. I mean, there are a lot of quarterbacks who are on a team for 15 years. And from 2016 to 2011, only three, I don't know what that tells you. I think it just tells you never draft a quarterback and just trade for Matt Stafford like the Rams did. Yeah, I was going to say, this is like, so the old philosophy on tight ends and fantasy

is like, in dynasty, is let other people draft tight ends and then when their stock drops after a miserable first year, go trade for them because then like they're going to break out in year two. This is like maybe after their first contract for a quarterback or whatever, and like they're talking to their team and the team's threatening to franchise tag them and they're starting to get like a little chippy with their team that drafted them

and that's when you go and trade for a guy like that or like when they're like in Matt Stafford era like 30 years old trying to get that one last big contract then go get them. No, I feel like if they're letting no one lets good quarterbacks go. I think the answer here is nobody knows anything

that's not true anymore though. And this is really hard and like succeeding as a football team is honestly, you mentioned, it's like building a freaking Formula One car. It's like there's a lot that can go wrong. And you mentioned the driver thing, Craig. It's like you need a driver, but like, it's really hard to find these guys.

Who did you go win in a race? We got Jeff Gordon in my high school 1999 Honda Accord or me in Jeff Gordon's car. Who's winning? Wow. Jeff Gordon, because you couldn't handle that. Like you couldn't do that. You would just crash immediately. It's like an Air Force pilot.

You would pass out. Like you would literally just like Zon. He's like fucking ever given in the Suez Canal. He would just crash immediately, run into the wall. We have not talked about the boat in the Suez Canal. How did we not talk about this yet? It's been an hour. All the news happens after we put this podcast up.

The Mike Tolbert of ships. Just plugging shit up. The Suez Canal memes were my favorite thing that's happened to me this year. Yeah, can we like acknowledge that apart from the fact like there were animals on some of these boats and they need to be protected? This is hilarious. Like, it just plugged up the fucking world trade, like the entire world economy because one ship ran aground. There are two, there's a lot that's funny about it, obviously just because sideways ship. But I think the thing that's important is the memes.

Because sideways ship. You've seen those photos of like big ship and like the one little backhoe and it's like, you know, my depression and anxiety versus like taking walks. That's a good one. And like, the memes are funny, but here's the thing. I think that this is maybe the first truly global meme. Because how many time does a meme actually affect like 190 countries? Every country that participates in global trade, everyone everywhere had heard about this. And it's like, hey, toilet paper's going up.

Like, everyone heard about this. And I like that those photos transcend language. they transcend culture. It's like there is like 95% of the countries on Earth can see that picture and laugh. That's pretty good. The first global meme? Yeah, that was crazy, man. So I was following this the other day when they got the ship loose or whatever.

Did it actually literally get loose and then run aground again? Because I feel like there was conflicting reports that after they'd gotten it loose, it like ran back to ground because of high wind. I'm not going to lie. I haven't been following the exact flow of like the beginning of lodge. I've been looking at the memes. Like, the memes are what I'm here for. DK's got the live cam on CNN.

He's just watching it for 24 hours a day. They should have charged pay-per-view. They should have turned it, and then you could have raised back the $100 trillion that this cost everyone. But here's how I feel about laughing about it. I know it's somewhat of a serious conversation, but who's going to pay for this?

Us, because the costs are going to go up on everything. So it's fine. We get to laugh about it. Unbelievable. All right. We need a stimmy check for the Suez Canal blockage. Look, it was Passover. And it's, you know what?

The ship escaped Egypt. Happy ending. Craig and I are both still like, what? What is going? What is going on? Thank you, D.K., thank you, Craig. Niners really should have just traded for Craig Worldwick. Thank you to everyone for listening.

This was a lot of fun. We'll see you guys next week. Thank you, Lauren. Yeah. Oh, yeah, you're sorry. You get the music. Also, DeK and are going on the big board on the NFL show. So, like, check out the ring or NFL show.

Thank you, 50 cent. Oh. What did you said? Liquid descent. 50 cent. 50 cent. my god. Liquid descent.

I was like, what is that? That's a pretty good band name. All right. See you guys next week.