The Ringer NFL Show - Bold Predictions for the 2021 Season

Episode Date: July 19, 2021

We are joined by The Ringer’s Kevin Clark to offer up our boldest predictions for the 2021 fantasy football season. We answered listener questions about the upcoming season in the first part of our conversation, which is available on 'The Ringer NFL Show.' Be sure to check out The Ringer’s 2021 Fantasy Football Draft Guide here! Email us at [e-mail]. Hosts: Danny Heifetz, Danny Kelly, and Craig Horlbeck Producer: Craig Horlbeck Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Gene and Roger is the story of the two most powerful, influential movie critics of their time, Gene Siskel and Roger Ebert. You can find Gene and Roger on the Big Picture feed on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Here's a quick trailer. It seemed like a crazy idea for a TV show. Take two rivals and let them duke it out about movies. But Gene Sisko and Roger Ebert quickly became the most popular film critics in the country. Millions of viewers tuned in to see whether they vote thumbs up or thumbs down.

This is the story of two unlikely superstars. stars who changed the way we argue. From Spotify and the Ringer podcast network, I'm Brian Raftery, and this is Gene and Roger. Listen on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to the Ringer Fantasy Football Show. My name is Danny Hyfins and I'm joined by

Danny Kelly, Craig Horlebeck, and Kevin Clark, a very special guest here. This is part two of a two-parter. We're running one on the NFL show, one on Fantasy Football Show, because it is a special occasion. The Ringer Fantasy Football Draft Guide is live,

for 2021, go to fantasyfootball. Dot the ringer.com. Check it out. We spent a lot of work on it, and we are just, we're celebrating. It's the first perfect guide. All the rankings are correct, which is pretty cool. Everything is right. 100%. So check that out. Check it out of fantasyf football.org.com.

We just did on the NFL show. We just went through some, how would we describe it? Some mail bag? It's like tweets. Yeah, it's tweets. I don't know if there's a bag of tweets, but we went through the whole bag of tweets. Went through that here. We're going to give our

our hot takes, our bold predictions. I don't know if it's going to be like Salty Spatoons style. Wait, I had, I have, I did hot takes and not bold predictions. Oh, that's fine.

It's the same thing. Same spirit. My hot take is that it's also a bold prediction. So I, usually last year we did this with like SpongeBob and like whether your take was Saltis Patoon or Weenie Hut Jr. But now that.

So I'm sorry. I missed that one. You are we out. Thank you, Kevin. Has Kevin ever watched SpongeBob? Kevin, you're young. I are SpongeBah Millennials.

There's no way, Kevin. We already did. Danny and I already did this on the NFL show a couple weeks ago, where we talked about how they're saved by the Bell millennials and SpongeBob millennials. Yeah. And I guess I'm a Save by the Bell, but I'm not like sitting around waiting for the reboot here. Reboots are already out, I think. I think it is.

Dude, there's like 12 reboots, I feel like. I've saved by the Bell. Yeah, there's like the college years. There was, there's a bunch of weird shit. You love Saved by the Bell. I mean, I had to. I'm a saved by the Bell millennial. Mario Lopez is a is around if you go to a Los Angeles boxing match doesn't matter what level it is he's really into it

the underground ones like the fight club ones I mean kind of yeah he was that uh he was at uh he's sports night a couple years ago went to a just like a workout for triple G and uh and Canello like just kind of a small thing couple thousand people there and he was just there for some reason just taken in the workout he's there he's in the scene he pivoted podcasts. He's still in the reboot, I think. He does reboots and boxing and boxing nerd stuff.

Yeah, he's a big IG boxing guy. It's a big workout thing for him. Loves the box. It's a big workout thing for me, but I'm not going to put it on IG. You should. Maybe that's your mistake right there, buddy. Maybe you'd be on Save by the Bell.

All right, so we're going to end this with a Mario Lopez hot take. You all have however much time it takes this to record this, we need a Mario Lopez tie and hot take by the end. But we're going to start out. So we're doing our bold predictions for the season. And if you're wrong, what's the punishment? Being tried and quartered? Sure.

Okay, cool. D.K. Isn't the point to just have a hot take that can't be proven wrong? That is like the highest level is that you're just always correct. But the benefit of coming on this show is that it's 100% correct. There's no way we're going to be wrong. Guaranteed. We're perfect so far.

So two years in, we haven't made a mistake. Exactly. Zero. Chris Herndon's name is never to be mentioned on the show, though. Dek, do you want to go first? Yeah. So I think this is kind of a funny one to do with, with the release of our draft guide

because some of these takes, these are hot and so they don't really match up with our actual real rankings. And that's where I'm going with this first one. That is Lions running back Dandre Swift will finish as an RB1. We don't have them ranked like that. And RB1?

So you're saying top 12? Top 12, yes. It's top, oh, we're not going to go to this. Okay. High Fitz, just give it up, man. This is for another time whether top 10 or top 12 is RB1. However, I'm going top 12.

and for several reasons here. Look, Dandre Swift, everybody's freaking out about how much Detroit sucks, about how Anthony Lynn has called Jamal Williams a classic A-back, which apparently will take Dandre Swift out of the running in fantasy and make him irrelevant or whatever.

People are going a little too far with it, in my mind. However, you might remember, you can still get elite fantasy seasons from running backs on bad teams, like Christian McCaffrey, Saquine Barclay. You don't have to be on a good, elite team to have a good fantasy season as running back. And number two, I think that Swift's role with this offense is going to be pretty much what

you, like, ideally he would be a three down back. But if you're not getting that, him coming in and being the spaceback, the past catching back, it gives him that Austin Echler type role that Anthony Lynn just coached last year. So going back to last year, Swift as a rookie, he finished as the RB18, which is actually a little bit surprising, concerning he played in only 30. games and he started only four games. And he only averaged 8.8 rushing attempts per game.

So he finished in ppr, half ppr, I should say, as the RB 18, despite all those things against him. And going forward, I think, number one, that past catching ability, his role in the passing game is going to give him a really solid floor. I think

he's actually going to run more than we think he's going to run, probably just because Detroit, I think, is going to be a very run-heavy team. You know, Dan Campbell coming in talking about bite and kneecaps, them using their first pick, this new regime using their first pick on Pne Sewell, who is going to solidify an already good offensive line. PFF ranked this offensive line number 10 in the NFL going into the season. So you're going to a run heavy team, and by the way, I saw the stat from Graham Barfield at fantasy points. He said that Anthony Lynn

has only called plays once in his career, and that was in 2016 from week three to 17 with the bills. He was the second highest run rate when the game was within his score. So neutral situation run rate. Um, third highest rate when they were leading and the highest run rate when they were trailing, which is probably going to be a lot this year. So regardless of situation is the bottom line. Anthony Allen likes to call runs. Um, I think that's going to carry over here in this offense. That's probably a big reason that they like him. When you have a quarterback, excuse me, when you have a quarterback like Jared Goff, I think you're going to want to rely and lean heavily on that run game.

And so all in all, I think there's going to be enough volume to go around with Chmall Williams and Dandre Swift in Detroit, despite the fact that they're not going to be very good. And I think, honestly, if they're trailing, that's going to lead to more receptions for Dandre Swift. So I think the situation isn't as bad as people are making it out to be. I think that D'Andre Swift is really talented. And I think his upside is much higher than maybe the narrative and, you know, impression is right now. So I'm going, again, top 12. He's not ranked that high. This is a little

bit of a hot take, but I'm going against consensus right now. And I think Swift is going to do better than people think. I think it's a little weeny hut junior to be top 12 instead of like top six, but I'll allow it. Kevin, what's your hot take for the season? Fantasy hot take. You got one? I have two. Number one. And this comes down. Danny said something earlier and it's another bullet point on this. And maybe I'm just coming at it from a completely insane viewpoint. Maybe I'm just, you know, just is just trying to cause controversy, but I'm not. I'm not. Touchdown shouldn't count in fantasy.

Oh. Okay. So Danny says that Nick Chub takes a knee on the one yard line, obviously, cost people things. It's all so random. We talked about on the previous episode how Maurice Jones drew once accused Greg Jones of sabotage the one yard line because of fantasy football, perhaps consideration. I just think that we talk so much about. goal line carries. We talk so much about opportunities, red zone targets, whatever. And I kind of

feel like Danny Haifitz, to your point in the last episode, we need to get a little bit closer to the idea of just talking about who the best football players are. Now, I'm totally in favor of Josh Jacobs in some weird corner of football being more important than Patrick Mahomes in some some weeks, right? But I also think that taking the actual touchdown part of it takes, the word randomness is not correct, but just makes it a little bit more about who's actually the best player between two players. Am I

crazy? You're right. It's less volatile, perhaps, is the word. This is an awesome take, Hyfitz. This is in the Spatoon. This is in the salty spatoon. I don't agree with it, but it's a great thing. Do you ever think it's weird, by the way, since we're talking about touchdowns? Do you ever think it's odd that

passing touchdowns, quarterbacks and receivers get credit for passing touchdowns. It's like, it's one touchdown. I think it's kind of... Yeah. That makes sense. But that's how passing yards and receiving yards work.

How are you supposed to do that? That's also how many stats work. Look, I'm not offering a solution here. I just think it's... You're basically saying either receivers should get the points or quarterback. Yeah. That's it.

Now you're just questioning the point of football, Danny. Now I'm just going in the rabbit hole, baby. Like, what else can we do? Here's the thing. If touchdowns count in real football, I think they should count in fantasy football. But they count for the team, not for the player. Hear me out.

Touchdowns don't count in real football either. It's just whichever team gets the most yards, so they win the game. Yeah. I don't know. I just think every time, every time I'm talking to a serious fan of football player, I mean, like, hearing Danny Kelly talk about,

um, run rate percentage in one score game, stuff like that, there are so many considerations and so many edges you can get. Obviously, year over year, the guys who are so smart, I'm like, I'm in awe.

someone like Evan Silva when he comes on the podcast and just talks about certain things, number of dropbacks, you know, front of offensive coordinator or whatever. I love that stuff. And I just kind of maybe the touchdowns are kind of the equalizer because as you said, Craig, it's a little more volatile. But what I would say is that I just think that if you want to reward the best and smartest players like fantasy players, you would do it more on yards. Okay.

What about this? What about this? Just tossing this in. So we stick with Kevin's idea. touchdowns don't count in fantasy football for the players. However, you can draft a coach and you get the team's touchdown in that game for the coach. Now, now you just made my idea worse. I think you're not allowed on my take.

Get off his co-tails. You're not allowed to go on onto this take now. Coachers are more important than kickers. Well, the kickers thing is a different. The things that should be worth points are the things that are valuable. And I reject the idea that things that are more predictable should be worth points. Like I like that's why I love kickers. I will also say this.

You know, one of my favorite things, one of my favorite gambling things, I'm in like 20 different random fantasy leagues across all sports, all sports. One of my favorite things is I'm in like a soccer goals league. And it's just goals. And it's a separate skill.

It's a separate skill from everything else. I don't play fantasy soccer. Like I'm not trying to do assists. I'm not trying to do whatever. I'm not trying to pick a team captain like to do in primary league. I'm just trying to pick the poachers who are going to score goals. you can do a touchdowns league it's just a separate deal it's a separate thing give me the touchdown guys the mike tobert league the mike tollbert league give me the touchdown league and give me the other fans football league

they are two separate skills isn't that less fun isn't the randomness part of the fun do you want to be able to predict what's going to happen i agree uh i mean do you i mean danny sounds like he knows dandy sounds like he wants to win and you sound like you want to just have a good time and and not know what's going to happen just want to hang out with some friends what really is the goal of fantasy football. Is it the friends we made along the way? It's to talk shit in group chats. That's it. That's the whole... Yeah. I didn't know how philosophical this is going to lead us to.

Yeah, that happens sometimes here. Okay. Craig, you got a hot take? All right, I will stop back as you've got one. If you don't have one, you should leave the podcast. Mine is that Kim Acres will finish as the best running back in fantasy football. And that next year, we will have an entirely new top four at running back. I like that a lot. That's good.

That's good. I went back and looked at the last like 10, 11 years of who we draft first. And there seems to be roughly a three to four year cycle with these guys. And we're, I think, at the end of a cycle, the McCaffrey, Sequin, Zeke, Kamara, and Cook. I think that is ending. Zeke and Kamara are entering year four of this cycle. McCaffrey and Dalvin are entering year two and three.

I think there's a chance that next year it's like, Cam Acres, Jonathan Taylor, Antonio Gibson, and Najee Harris. and because it's just the way it goes. The lifespan of these guys, you know, there are some freaks like Antonio, sorry, Adrian Peterson from 2010 to 2016 was in the top four. He's still trying to play. Right.

So those guys like him. But I think Acres is the one where after this season ends, we could be like, yeah, we should have seen this coming. I mean, I don't think we're still giving enough credit to the fact that Matt Stafford's on the Rams and how good they could be. I mean, on flying coach, when Kyle Shanhan was on, he talked about how when he found out that Stafford was available, he started researching him and looking into him,

and he was like, oh, he was even better than I thought he was. And I was surprised at how good he was. And he wanted him, and there's this whole Cabo story that you should listen to about the Niners inquiring about Matt Stafford. But I don't know what's to not like on the Rams this year. I mean, the same 50 linemen are coming back. They have a good defense. This is year five for McVeigh.

They have great wide receivers. And I think Cam Acres has a potential to just be Todd Gurley again. Honestly. Right. I mean, they drafted Daryl Henderson, and then the next year they drafted Cam Acres. The biggest question is Cam Acres' workload. But the last five games of the season when he was healthy,

last four games, sorry, he had 21 and a half carries a game, which would have been third in the league. So, like, I think we know that when he's healthy, they're going to commit to Cam Acres. And as D.K.'s draft guide pointed out two years ago, Camakers is a good receiver. He excelled at Florida State.

They had a shitty-o line, and he was still really good. I just think, I actually don't know why Camakers. He's in my top eight on my personal rankings, but I think KMakers has an equal chance as Sequin Barclay. He'd be a top four back this year. Kevin needs some context here. Craig launches a podcast with Sean McVeigh's house, and now he's just like,

Rams, baby, he's like the number one Rams fan. I was into Kenmakers prior to flying coach. I want to put that out there. Are you friends of Sean McVeyer now? Sean calls him brother. Are you qualified to being an NFL head coach now? I am the next. in line of the McVeigh

coaching treats. No, the Cardinals said Cliff Kings were his friends, but McVeigh calls Craig a brother. And I think that that's a higher level. Did he basically buy a team? No.

Yes. Not like when we talk. 100% called you a brother of the first episode. Is it possible to be eating? But did he call you Craig, my brother, or did he say,

hey brother? Because those are two very different things. I believe it was like Craig's like a brother to us already, is what exactly what was said. Oh, okay. that you are, wow. Congratulations, Craig.

Well, Sean's a great guy. That show is phenomenal. And the Kyle Shannon episode is one of the best things we've ever done here at the ringer. I just really enjoyed them talking football. I'm being so candid about Shanahan getting his Cabo vacation ruined and all that. Nice problem to have, I will say. Yeah, I guess everyone just goes to Cabo in the NFL at the exact same time a year. I mean, they have like two weeks to do it.

So, yeah, I guess it kind of makes sense. Yeah, but yeah, the final episode is on Wednesday. And it's two really good guests. So stay tuned. Check out flying coach. I like this steak, though, because number one, when it comes to like ADP and predicting, I think there's always this fear that it's going to really blow up in your face. Like the acres, so like last year, for instance, the Clyde Edwards-Hleir hype ended up being, you know, a miss,

a huge miss for a lot of us, especially like the three of us on the show, we loved him. It didn't work out. But sometimes, like, guys do take that jump. I think the thing that's keeping Cam Acres ADP down and, like, the hype around him is he just hasn't done it yet. You know, there's this fear that we're just making it into a narrative. It's not going to actually happen. There's this fear that they're going to do a committee or that Acres will get hurt or something like that. There's just so many unknowns, so many variables in this thing that makes it difficult to predict.

Are there, though? What are the variables? Isn't it just, it's just Darrell Henderson? It's just that he hasn't done it. I think that's the big thing, right? And then once he does it, everyone's, like you said, next year, it's like, oh, he's going to be the top three pick, whatever. And it's not going to be that surprising. But I think that the big things here are, number one, he's talented.

Number two, he's going to have the opportunity we think because Sean McVeigh has shown the propensity to lean heavily on a guy for all three downs. He did that last year at the end of the season. They obviously liked this guy. He was the top pick of their draft that year. So, yeah, I mean, I think that there's plenty of signs pointing to, yes, he is this next breakout superstar and fantasy. Just as many signs that would kind of lead you to, you know, be a little bit hesitant about it. Todd Gurley was good. K-makers could be good.

Yeah. Wait, is mine in the Salty Spatoon? Yeah, KMakes would be number one running back? You're in this spout. There's no question. That's not Weennaut, Jr. DeAndre Swift, top 12 is a little winning out junior. Top six, maybe.

Fine, make it top six. Oh, yeah. You're in this platoon. You talked me into it. So my hot take, I just don't think Seekwan's going to be a top-10 running. back to the shirt and I wouldn't take him in the first round. This is something I've been on for a couple weeks now. Now it's like a news cycle because he said like he was asked to feel be ready for week one and he's like, maybe we'll see. Nothing changed. I don't know why this is some

big news story. He said the same thing he's been saying for weeks, which is, I don't know, I'm going day by day. I'm just trying to get one percent better every day and we'll see and I don't look too far into the future. The most standard of standard athlete speak non-answer, but just for some reason today, it was a bigger deal than when he basically said the same thing a few weeks ago. My problem is that the giants are taking the correct long-term approach here, which is we are going to sign Sequin's contract extension, so why would we rush him back? That seems dumb. So that's smart if they're going to keep him as the face of the franchise. It doesn't make sense to take him as a top 10 guy in fantasy because Sequin's been good when he's

getting like 85, 90% of snaps. And like, we don't know if he's going to play in week one. If he does, I think he's going to be in way more of a time share with Devante Booker. And even if he does come back healthy, which fully healthy, this is still a Jason Garrett offense. It's like the idea that if he's healthy and if the Giants are good and if Daniel Jones is better and if Kenny Ghalty stays healthy and if Jason Garrett puts together a good play, there's just a lot of ifs for someone who's just automatically like a top three pick. It's crazy to me. I almost thought about shorting Sequin with you, Danny. I had a different take, which was to eliminate a huge part of fantasy football. But I think that there's a lot of, as much as I love Sequan's,

individual talent, like the Jason Garrett thing is weird. The offense, as you said, it's just not going to be all that special. Daniel Jones could be a very weird year if things go south from the first eight weeks of the season. I just don't think that there's a lot of there there. Hyphids, what do you think the odds are that Jason Garrett is fired by week three and Freddie Kitchens is calling place? Low, because I believe the reason Garrett's on staff is that the Giants' ownership is very in on him.

Like, I believe the organization likes Jason Garrett's leadership, which I mean, I'll just say that again, the organization likes Jason Garrett's leadership. So, but I also don't think the Giants like, rather I'll rephrase, I think the Giants hate making big moves in season. I really don't think that they want to be the organization. They like to see themselves like the Steelers is like a traditional and they,

you know, it's very much a family run team and they want to be teams that make big decisions in the offseason. They don't want to be rash. So I actually think that the odds of that are kind of low. That's a bummer. Yeah. I just don't like sick one of his value. Like he's just someone who's like the name brand has like way surpassed the reality of just his knee injury.

The surgery was way delayed. The recovery's been delayed. Everything about the timeline is unknown. And you don't want uncertainty in your first run pick. But Kevin, what's your next hot take, Kevin? I think when you consider positional scarcity. And again, this ties back to the first episode on the NFL show of feed. And we talked to the 10 position and how much it can be a wasteland and how top heavy it is.

and the debate in the last episode was whether or not it should even exist. I think when you consider a handful of factors, I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that Kyle Pitts could become one of the most valuable tight ends or players in general in the history of modern fantasy football. We're all in on this on this show.

We were out at the very beginning and then immediately we were like, nah, we're back in. Craig, wasn't your hot take that Pitts is going to be fine? He'll be fine. Well, then they tried to try to. Julio. Right. Okay.

So it's Ridley and Kyle Pitts. And it's still Matt Ryan, who can still get the ball in the hands. It's Arthur Smith, who is a really good offensive mind. And listen, I don't think that Kyle Pitts in 2021 is in the upper upper echelon.

I saw a couple of people, smart people had it maybe T.E. 6, maybe something like that. It seems right. Maybe five. I don't think he's on the, the kiddle, Kelsey, even Darren Waller level in 2020.

but he's going to get there quickly. He's going to stay there. And those guys are older than he is. And so I think you're looking at a, at one point at least, a dominant stretch, historically dominant stretch for Kyle Pitts in his career as the most valuable tight end.

Danny Kelly, am I wrong? No, I don't think so. I think Pitts is going to end up kind of like LeBron. Like, you know how is there always so... Oh, my God. Oh, my God.

Let me explain that tape. Let me explain this tape. But can he get it done in the final? Let me explain this. take because LeBron had an incredible amount of hype around him right? Like from a very young age and I would say he absolutely lived up to it more right

and I think Pitts is facing the same problem there's an incredible way over the top amount of hype I would say around him like he's the greatest tight end prospect of all time is the highest drafted. Can I tell you right there real quickly? Can I tell you right there? There's a huge difference. Huge

difference between being on the cover of Sports Illustrated when you're 16 and he's the chosen one tatted on his chest versus like versus like Scott Barrett saying your T.E.3. Okay? There's a huge difference in those two things.

Is there? I don't know if Scott Barrett said that, by the way. I don't know. I just wanted a name drop Scott Barrett because I like him. Okay, so maybe I shouldn't evoke LeBron James when it comes to Cal Pitts. But the bottom line is he's getting like incredible, incredible amount of hype. And I think he's going to live up to it is my point. I think he's not going to like he's not going to be a disappointment. He's not going to come in and be like good,

not as good as everyone thought. I think he'll live up and maybe even better. So here's the thing. I think both of you are on par here. I never got the subpar thing because you want to be below par in golf, so I never understood that phrase. The reason I think you both are right is that Kyle Pitts is one of like two or three players I can even think of, where the question wasn't, is this player the best player

in the draft? The only conversation that draft heads like D.K. had was, is this the player, best player I've ever scouted at the position. That was the entire conversation. And guys like Mel Kiper were just like, yeah, 40 years, no question, the best. And the only other guy I can even think of that had that was Quentin Nelson actually at Guard. That was the only other guy I can even remember where it was like, no, ever.

Even Andrew Luck, it was like, yeah, since John Elway, since Peyton Manning. And that's, I don't can't miss prospect is an oxymoron. But I think when everyone's just debating, is this the best I've ever seen? Yes. I think that, yeah, it's, there. there's no chance, right? We have a Mazzar fourth or fifth tight end, I think. Well, the best thing Craig said was like,

are you really going to take T.J. Hawkinson over Kyle Piths? I was like, no. It's kind of like Otani, which, again, I don't want to compare him to what he's atani's doing. But the fact that Otani surpassed expectations, like he's got 34 home runs. If you had finished the season with that, we'd be like, whoa. That Kyle Pitts does have that potential where it's like,

imagine if he's like third and receiving yards through like halfway through the season. That wouldn't be crazy. If you're staring at Hockinson and Pits in your fantasy draft, there's literally 0% chance you're picking T.J. Hawkinson and selecting the draft button. Dude, T.J. Hawkinson was the top 10 pick. Who cares? Why is Jared Goss? Like 400 yards in Iowa.

This is what I'm saying, though. Like, Pitts isn't a whole new stratosphere. Generally speaking, I think sound fantasy advice is you should not go off emotion or hype and like you should just, you know, go with value. Except what it's like this is. Except the Kyle Pitts of the world. Like, take it. It's no fantasy.

No one's fantasy is to have T.J. Hawkinson. My fantasy is stuff, Kyle Pippin. I can't believe I started this take. Not knowing where he was going to go and ended with LeBron and Otani. He regrets this. You regret this take already, I feel like. No, I love the take.

You guys, you guys put it on a, you guys, like, we have expanded the take. We've expanded the take. It's like what people say about Trey Lance. He's a scheme expansion. This is a take expansion. I started out as one take that I liked. Craig liked it. and now we've expanded it into Kyle Pitts's Otani and LeBron combined.

But still, but still TE4, but still TE4. Yeah. How many, how many games in a row just Kyle Pitts have to have like 38 yards to then we go like, okay, maybe this isn't it? How long does it have to happen for? He could do that for the entire first season and I would just blame other people. I was going to say, because everyone just was just a bill, he's a by low. He's a by low.

Yeah, we're going to be on this for three years minimum is, before we give up this goat. I would say the fantasy, the draft community is kind of over leveraged because if Trevor Lawrence or Kyle Pitts sucks, no one's going to listen to anything ever again. Yeah. Like, those guys better be good because that following up the Josh Allen thing would be really tough. As someone who follows college football recruiting extremely closely, and it was probably my favorite thing in the world for like two years from 2008 until 2010, being hugely wrong on

prospects is there's no penalty for that whatsoever. Yeah. There's none. There's none. Miami, the Miami Hurricanes in 2008 had the number one class in the country. And I was at Miami at the time. And I'm looking at these guys like five stars out with the way. I'm like these guys like Marcus Forson's the next one.

Sapp, like that's all you heard. And then it turned out they took seven guys from from the same high school, Miami Northwestern high school. None of them made it to their second contract in the NFL. Most of them didn't make it in the NFL at all. The eighth guy on that team, the one D1 guy we did not take. was Levanté David. And not one person. Not one person was like,

oh man, we should really take Levanti David like he's pretty good. There was no chatter about that whatsoever. It was like, oh, man, Sean Spence is the future. That's incredible. Everybody watched them. Everybody watched the tape.

That team played against my high school in the state championship. We're sitting there and nobody was like, yeah, that guy is going to be the best defender on a Super Bowl champion in 15 years. We should keep an eye on that guy. Nobody said that. Anyway.

Kevin, do you still watch, Do you still watch a lot of, or do you still pay attention really heavily to all the, like, recruiting like four and five star guys? I try, but you get out of it when you realize that the wisdom of the crowds matters. So like, generally having good classes means you'll have a good team.

And there's a certain, like, Angu's Bud Elliott has this thing where essentially, like, you have to have a certain threshold of talent to win the national championship. But that does, A, that doesn't guarantee anything. And B, on an individual process, level, it can be wrong more than the NFL. But you do need in bulk a lot of four and five-star guys to compete nationally. Yes. So I don't sit here and look at the top 100 players and

project them anymore like I used to. I have a lot. I love this version of Kevin. I like picturing. It was just 2008. A lot of college football tape and Johnny Walker is what I would say about that. My favorite version of Kevin is just the naming random places in Florida. That's my real favorite, Kevin. Yes, seriously. But those two things are connected. Those two things are connected. You think I'm not sitting around talking about the Lakeland High School team that got all those guys to Florida, the Pouncy Twins out of Lakeland High School. Are you kidding me?

Ahmad Black was on that team. What's Old Smar looking like in terms of four? Oldsmar. The reason I knew Old Smar is because they used to play hockey there because I think the junior lightning used to play there in Oldsmar. Oh, my God. But, you know, you go over to Tampa. You got a lot of it. You got, you know, Sefner Armwood, you know, Plant High School, Robert Marv.

Wasn't this whole thing to rename Marquise Brown? That's why we did that. Yeah, we were like, we wanted a different name for Hollywood. And we started naming it in L.A. And then we realized that he's named for Hollywood, Florida. And we were like, wait, Kevin, we need random places in Florida. We need Kevin. He doesn't deserve Hollywood as a name.

If you're a Florida sports fan, you have to have a command of the geography because you have to know where these kids are coming out of. Yeah. I can tell you about Pahoki. I went to a Pahokee game. Janoris Jenkins was there. Who's playing? Can we just do a whole podcast where we name random towns in Florida and Kevin?

No, Pahokie is like a thing. Yeah. Yeah. Guys, guys, it's called the Muck. And it's three high school. Fred Taylor's from there. Janoros Jenkins is from there. Santonio Holmes is from there.

It's Belglade and Pahokie. And Anquon Bolden is from there. It's a really small, Pernell McPhee, Redo Anthony Alfonzo Smith Vincent Smith I could just keep going

Andre Waters from there I love that I could just keep going but it's essentially two high schools where it's in Western Palm Beach County it's really small area

and they produce Kelvin Benjamin is from there yeah so I could keep going but it's some of the best high school football per capita in the world my favorite thing about Florida

and I think Kevin you and I and Roger Sherman maybe we're talking about this at one point. When we were at the Super Bowl in Miami two years ago, we were on the third level having a hot dog or something. And I think Roger was like, is this the highest point in Florida right here, like where we're standing?

I looked up 324 feet is the highest point in Florida, I think, off the top of the top of it. It's just insane to me. Also, the other thing, I will never forget this moment, Kevin. We were on the bus to the Super Bowl, and there was like some crazy car race going around us and Kevin just smiles, looks at me and goes, welcome to Florida.

Just like the people who drive in Florida are absolutely insane. I had a bit of a speed problem when I was younger and had to, I think it's kind of a thing you have to get it. I was one incident away from being uninsurable. Drop that in there. Love that. What is the fastest speed you've ever gone in a car? I fast shouldn't go.

like 110 or 120, whatever it is. Love it. Is that why you like Formula One so much? Because he grew up in Florida driving in Florida. Because I grew up in the hotbed of Formula One racing, Orlando, Florida. Why is a lot of reasons I like Formula One. Okay, good to know. Yeah.

What, who, you guys have not gone as fast as you can in a car? No. Okay. I've never. Like, pedal to the floor? Yeah. It goes as fast as you can. Not for an extended, not for an extended period of time.

My brother's a firefighter. I hear too much of a car crashes to speed. Well, that's fair. You know what? I'm going to leave that take alone. Craig, did you want to talk about the Jaguars? Should we stick to locations and whether they should move to London

or you want to talk about players? Just players. We can get into the London stuff at a later date. My hot take is that Travis E.T.N. becomes the next Alvin Camara and that the Jags offense is pretty good. So... Love it.

Trevor Lawrence, my theory is, I think people aren't excited about him. because he's been the end disputed number one pick for so long, and I think we're just bored about it. COVID happened, like, nobody was talking about it, and I just don't think we care. I think he's kind of boring, but I think maybe in a different year,

if he kind of surged late, he'd be a lot more of it. He'd be a sexier topic. I don't think anyone cares about it. But they drafted his running back. Like, has it ever happened before where they draft a running back and a quarterback in the first round in the same draft?

I don't think that's ever happened before. But I went back and I looked at the list of running backs taken in round one in the last 10 years. I will quickly fly through this list because there's a point at the end, I promise. Last 10 years, running backs taken in the first round. Mark Ingram, David Wilson, Doug Martin, Trent Richardson, Melvin Gordon, Todd Gurley,

Zeke Elliott, McCaffrey, Leonard Fournette, Sonny, Michelle, Rashad Penny, Sequin, Barclay, Josh Jacobs, Clyde Edwards, Halear, Najee Harris, and E.T.N. All those guys besides David Wilson, sorry, High Fitz, and Rashad Penny, sorry me. God damn it.

They weren't good. Sorry about me, too. awesome. Yeah, sorry to you, DK. But if you look at those running backs... So the three guys that are... We're affected by all sucked and every other first run running back

was good? Correct. Right. Correct. Good to know. So my point is, though, is I went back and I looked at all their touches. If you add up all those guys' touches

in the first season of their career, it's 17 touches a game. And like, Travis ETS is going up against an undrafted guy and James Robinson, who Urban Meyer has no connection to. And E. E.N. is literally going to be Trevor Lawrence's safety blind.

They have such a connection together. The average rookie running back in the last eight years gets 197 touches a game or a season in their rookie year. That would be sweet, yeah. I just love the middle round running backs are really hard to get through. And ETN to me seems like one that could really take off. I love this take. I love this too.

I mean, I'm just going to throw mine out here too just because it's the cousin of this, which is I think Najee Harris could be like a top three running back drafted next year and he'll be top three this year. Because for everything Craig just said, I think Najee Harris leads the league in touches this year. or at least could be because he's got three down back for the Steelers. Like he's a first rounder for the Pittsburgh and exactly to Craig's point, obviously Nogueros is a very different player from ETIN.

But an organization, unless they're the Seahawks of the Patriots, don't take running backs in the first round to not have them playing all the time. Yeah, I was going to say, there's like a little bit of recency bias, I think, around the first round running back or whatever. Like, CEH was disappointing as rookie, even though his rookie season wasn't actually that bad. You know, we're in the Josh Jacobs. part of his career where everyone's fading Josh Jacobs you know Rashad Penny all that stuff

I say recency bias you'd forget just how important it is when running backs going round one they are going to get tons of volume like the vast majority of the time so you know the idea that Travis ETIN is going to be this slash player for the for the Jaguars I think it's scaring some people off

but if you actually really list. He's running routes at OTAs and then the reporter tweets it and everyone's like oh no he only ran the practice is like three hours so that could have been 20 minutes. So I think, yeah, and I think that's helping us lose side of the fact, helping the general public lose side of the fact that, yeah, he was the first run running back. They're going to use this guy.

He's Charles Lawrence's former teammate. He's one of the most explosive players in the draft. He scored like 78 touchdowns in college. Everything, you know, adds up together. Like, he's going to get a good amount of volume and he's going to do, like, he's going to be efficient with it. I think that there's just like all these narratives right now about Irvin Meyer that's like pushing him down.

I like this take, Craig. Yeah, Jake is Zachoreson, who's very, very smart. He had this whole thing last week about how the most lucrative running backs to draft are basically when there's two guys who go in the middle rounds and they're on the same team. And you want to take the better of the two. And it's like Chase Edmonds and James Connor and you want to take Edmonds. And it's like E.N and James Robinson and you want to take E.N. He's like, those are the running backs that pay off the most every year in fantasy.

So try and find that when you can. And there's not many teams each year that have that. Maybe it's like Swift and Jamal Williams, but they might be a little too far apart. But ETN, to me, seems like a perfect fit. We're really underrating the fact that fucking Trevor Lawrence and him are on the same team in college. And now they're both first round picks on the same team in the pros.

I don't remember who pointed this out, Albert Breer or someone, but like Trevor Lawrence has less pressure now than he did at Clemson. Like he's less famous. He's less, like Joe, who was more, when was Joe Burrow more in the public consciousness? 2019 or 2020. Like 2020, it was like he didn't exist. And then he tore his ACL.

Treve Lawrence is kind of in the same, like the same thing. He went from the face of college football to like he's like the 12th most interesting quarterback right now. So I actually completely agree. Dic, you want to finish this off here with, uh, last bowl prediction of hot take?

So speaking of rookies, I'm going with Devante Smith. He's going to be a wide receiver too. Right now he's being drafted or he, like we've got him ranked at, hold on, sorry. and pull it up. We've got him ranked at wide receiver 39, 85th overall.

I think that's above consensus right now. I think he's immediately going to come in and be the number one receiver for the Eagles. As I've said on this podcast and several other podcasts, I believe in Jalen Hertz, I think Jaylen Hertz, even if he isn't a super efficient passer, he's still going to pass a good amount, and I think he's going to create big plays because he's aggressive, he pushes the ball downfield. I think Devante Smith comes in and is immediately the number one guy, like I said, on this team and he's going to get the most

targets. I think he's a really good player. I think that the weight and overall slim build thing is definitely driving him down. People are very unsure what to do with that. Historically speaking, it's not a good thing. But I think this guy can come in and immediately be like a Calvin Ridley style player for the Eagles.

Kevin, Kevin, what do you think of Nick Siriani as the Eagles head coach and what that means for the Eagles offense? I don't think he's as good is Doug Peterson. Well, that's the...

Yeah, that's the point. I mean, I don't expect much of a step forward. I don't think Nick Siriani was exactly a home run higher. I think that I understand wanting the continuity of being on Frank Wright staff or whatever. I just kind of feel like there was a little bit of panic in Philadelphia last year. And I don't think that this was a solution to anyone's problems. And I'm not expecting all that much. If you're asking what I think about Nick Siriani as like a head coach, not much.

Listen, I'm happy to be surprised. Doug Peterson was not considered an incredible hire when he was brought on. And then they won a Super Bowl. And not only that, they did one of the best coaching jobs, whether that's assembly and the staff, whether that's having Frank right there, John DeFilippe. Everything worked there. And so not only was Peterson better than I thought that he was one of the best coaching jobs the last decade. So I'm happy to be surprised.

I do think Holly Roseman has a capability still be a good GM. I do think that Jeffrey Lurie has shown himself to be over the course of the past 20 years a good owner.

Again, I'm just not optimistic for 2021 and beyond. Can I ask you guys a quick question? Who led the Eagles last year in receptions? Greg Ward

or Travis Fulgum, maybe. I mean, I think that was sort of a rhetorical question because either of those, it is Greg. But like the way you answered that was perfect. It's like, I don't know. Greg Ward or Travis Fulgum or...

What was the number? What was the number? Greg Ward, he had like 50-something catches. Hold on. I'll pull it up. But like the point is they had, they were down to, you know, four, fifth, sixth guy on their death chart when they started this season. Greg Ward emerges as like the go-to guy.

Travis Fulgum was it for a while. And I think it's like the point is now, number one, the offensive line is going to be a lot better. I think that will be beneficial for the passing game. and just overall the offense. I think they're going to have much more talent in the playmaker area, like in the skill positions with Tavonte Smith, with Jalen Rager and going into second season.

I don't know. I'm just, I'm bullish on Tvante Smith. I think he's going to be a good pro. And like I said, I really do see sort of like a Calvin Ridley style player with him, like a good route runner, a guy that doesn't,

the lack of bulk just doesn't really affect him. And I'm looking at the rankings right now, like Calvin Ridley was a wide receiver one or sorry it was a wide receiver two 20th 20th overall among receivers when he was a rookie and a big part of that was because he had 10 touchdowns but I and I not necessarily right. Correct. That's true but he was not the number one on that offense. He was clearly the number two behind Julio and so you know I think that there's just some variable here where I think he's going to get a good amount of volume. I think he will score five six touchdowns and he's

just going to have the amount of looks to produce that in fantasy. Like if you're looking for some context last year, Robbie Anderson was the wide receiver 24 and a half PPR. He caught 95 passes for 1,096 yards and three touchdowns. I don't think he's, I don't think necessarily Smith is going to catch 95 passes. But like somewhere in like 70s wouldn't surprise me. And I think he would,

he does have a chance to have more touchdowns. So like it'll even out a little bit. DJ Moore, who was the wide receiver 22, 66 catches, 1,193 yards and four touchdowns. So that's like the ballpark we're looking for. He might not crest 1,000 yards, but I think he could have a few more touchdowns to really get him into that area

in terms of like the fantasy world. And you don't care that he's a little, little guy? It's not that I don't care. I don't think it's going to be as big of a factor as people are afraid it's going to be. I think it is a factor. I'm not saying it's not that it's a non-factor, but I don't think it's going to be as big of a deal

as people think it is. He needs to hit up Priscilla. Yeah. No, you think we're still- How quickly do you think Rasilo could get DeVonte Smith over 200 pounds? Two months.

Let's get him in that Manhattan Beach garage. Let's get it going. Just get a squaw rack in your living room. That's the key. That is the key. Okay. I think that's all we got. Thank you to Kevin for coming on.

Thank you, Craig and D. Fantasyfutball. Dot the ringer.com or draft guys up. Thank you to Ben Glicksman and Riley McAtee and all the dozen people that worked so hard to get that thing going. Please visit it. We worked very hard.

Very proud of it. Part one of this podcast is on the NFL show. Kevin, what do you got coming? You got pods to plug? Yeah, ring her NFL show, Ryan Rusillo podcast later today. Trying to think what else. I mean, camp starts next week. That's crazy.

Yeah. Well, Kevin, hang on because here's the thing. Usually Dika gets to think a band, but first of all, thank you, Lauren. And then Kevin, you want to think a band? Do I want to thank a band? You would pretend we're SNL. I want to thank British post-punk band idols who I was listening to all this morning. Boom.

Current, incredible band. Perfect. Best current rock band. Not for everybody. Don't, don't like play it expecting some, like, good times jam music. Kevin, one last question. Do you know anyone or do you have any connection to Mariah Carey? Do I have any connection to Mariah Carey?

I don't think so. Damn it. I don't think so. Random Town, Florida. Why would I? We're trying to get her. her song fantasy to be our intro song. And we won't be able to do that unless you kind of give us some signatures.

Right. I feel like you'd have to go through the record company. Yeah, I know, but we don't really know anybody. We kind of feel like we go well. Did we ask? Well, no, we didn't reach out to Columbia, I think it is. We do. Wasn't she married to the head of Sony for a while?

All I know about is for Nick Cannon days. I would guess that the point people to ask would be the huge music distribution company that we currently work for. Listen, an email may have already been sent in regards to that. We did that. We asked you. Yeah, we'll see. So you're asking, you're appealing, we work for the biggest user company on the planet.

And that was your ask is if I know somebody, you know what you're the most connected guy I know. Thank you to everyone for listening.