The Ringer NFL Show - Bouncebacks and Busts

Episode Date: July 29, 2020

We nominate the players who are set up for a bounceback or a bust season and tell you which side of the coin we land on. WR JuJu Smith-Schuster and RB James Conner, Steelers (3:16) WR Odell Beckham, Browns and QB Baker Mayfield, Browns (9:16) QB Jared Goff, Rams (15:26) QB Matt Ryan, Falcons (18:16) RB David Johnson, Texans (20:42) RB Le’Veon Bell, Jets (24:55) QB Aaron Rodgers, Packers (30:44) QB Phillip Rivers and WR T.Y. Hilton, Colts (35:13) RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs (38:49) WR Adam Thielen, Vikings (43:11) For more fantasy rankings, sleepers, and draft info, check out the Ringer Fantasy Football Draft Guide. Hosts: Danny Heifetz, Danny Kelly, and Craig Horlbeck Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What's up? I'm Danny Hyfitz. I'm here with my co-host, Danny Kelly and Craig Horlebeck. How are you doing, D.K.? I'm doing pretty well, man. How are you doing? You know what? Bad. We've always asked each other how you're doing. How you're doing? And no one's ever like the question. And now that it's the year of 2020, we need to stop pretending to say good. I'm bad. And you know what? It's okay to be bad. That's fine. All right. We're moving on. That's fair. I respect that. We're doing bouncebacks and bust today. First of all, Craig, are you doing bad? You doing good? I'll hop on your bandwagon. I'm doing bad too. Great. You know what? If this podcast has one legacy, it's not fantasy.

It's, you know what? It's okay to say you're doing bad. That's all right. But we're doing bouncebacks and busts. Do you guys have any busts you remember, like an all-time beat that just kind of broke your heart? So, 2013 fantasy draft, me and my friends in my longtime league, I had the last pick in a 12-team draft. And I went back-to-back Stephen Jackson, Stephen Ridley. and it was Stephen Jackson's first year on the Falcons,

and it was the year after Ridley was like great. He had like 12 touchdowns on New England, and they both sucked, and I got like 11th. And people are like, how's your team doing? And you're like, bad. Yeah, bad. Deke, do you have any bad beats or you're always right every year? I mean, my bad, my worst beat that I can remember,

and there's been many along the way, but it was just James Connor last year. I feel like he just kind of let me down. No, that's a cop out. The Steelers sucked. Ben got hurt and he got hurt. Like, that wasn't like a bad pick. He would have been good. I mean, it wasn't a bust in the sense that he, I thought he was really good player and he was a bad player.

But, you know, I picked him in the first round and he just didn't do hardly anything all year. The real Steelers bust of running backs is Richard Mendon Hall, who just fell off a cliff. Yeah, what happened to that guy? He's now a writer for ballers. I guess which is now over. He was a writer for HBO's ballers. Really? I did not know that. That's amazing. He's listed on the credits as like a story contributor. Pretty good second career, I must say. Unlike Elizabeth Warren, I've actually never seen ball.

I have seen ballers and then I chose not to watch it. I don't know if that makes me more or less qualified. I'd like to have the inverse career of Richard where I go from kind of like media guide to football player. You just can be a running back? If you could be a position, if you could, what position in football do you think you could actually play for? Like, where do you think you could be on a team and actually no one would notice that like,

oh, a ringer fantasy co-host? Literally. zero. Yeah, I guess punter or kicker is the only two options. I feel like you could be like the third string quarterback for the Chargers and nobody would notice. Like it would just be like Tyrod Taylor, Justin Herbert and then just Craig Horlebeck's the third stringer and no one would catch on for a long time. Yeah, remember Ryan Linley? He went to San Diego State. I could just be Ryan Lindley. Craig, you're tall. You kind of look like a quarterback honestly. I could see it. Sure. I'll take that. I'll just beef up a little bit. I'll put on 10 pounds. quarterback of the Los Angeles Chargers, Craig Horrobeck. All right. Are we going to, should we get into these? Yeah, let's just, yeah.

I mean, we're going to do bouncebacks and bust, but let's just start with what you were just saying about James Connor and then the Steelers last year because James Connor was the first round pick for most leagues last year. Juju Smith-Schuster was right on the cusp of first round. He was basically what, top 15, early second rounder. They both were awful. And a key part of being a bust is it's not just an injury thing.

because if you have like someone who's out in week one, like David Johnson was out like week one of 2017, missed the whole season. That's not like a bus. He just got hurt. A key part of being a bust is you're still playing. Like there's an injury, but you can't get you,

you have to be on the team. If you can be released, that's not the same as like someone who's riding your bench either hurt or they're terrible and you're being constantly reminded that you pick this person. That's a huge aspect. You don't think that's a bus part?

Like a key part of being a bus? Like you have to be on the team the whole season. I feel like being a bust is very, it's a subjective term. A lot of people will include people who get hurt as busts, I would say. Oh, I don't know. I don't know. That's not really fair. Like, so Ben Rothesbner.

Not fair. Life's not fair, Craig. Yeah, okay, sure. Well, that's what, like Ben Rothesberger, yeah, to me, is not a bus last year. He got her in week two and was out for the season. And then by extension, James Connor and Juju became bust because they were not producing for you, but you had to start them. That to me is like the real conundrum.

I have to play this guy because I have no choice, but he's killing me. That's a true buff to me. Juju is essentially the entire example of what this episode is. He was bad last year. Will he be good this year? So I'm going to step out and say absolutely, and you guys want Juju and James Connor on your team this year. I love both these dudes.

Again, they were basically both going in the top 13 last year. There is one stat you need to know about the Pittsburgh Steelers in my mind for like this year with Connor and Tsu, and it's, they were like 30. They were 30th and drive success rate last year. The year before that with Big Ben,

they were fourth. If you want bounce back, what is it? That's about as big of a drop as you can go. If you're hoping saying bounce, you can't hope for more force than going from fourth to 30th. Like,

you got Mason, Rudolph, and Duck Hodges, manning the ship. And it was an awful team. It was kind of like the defense every week just had to be like, really, really?

like you had one job and put the team on the back and Minka Fitzpatrick is scoring more touchdowns by catching passes than most of the Steelers receivers are. And I just think that this year with Ben Rothesberger back, again, like the Steelers didn't go get us backup quarterback. They kept those dudes even though they were basically as bad as Washington and the Jets every week. They did not improve their backup quarterback situation,

which makes me think they believe Big Ben when he says he's perfectly healthy. James Connor is saying that he's got, Ben's got zip on his passes. I don't know if they should be working out. together, but they are. And I just feel like this is what Gregory talks about, the recency bias. There's no more recency bias than Juju and James Connor were toxic last year. But a year ago, everyone had them peg this first rounders now. You don't have to pay anywhere near that price for basically the exact same team. So I agree with you on Juju. I think Juju's going to come back. I think the Steelers in general are going to be good. I think that James

Connor is a really good value right now. My only question I guess would be, was Juju so bad that that actually makes you really worry about his overall future. Like, he got outplayed at times by Deonti Johnson, even James Washington down the stretch. I know he had, he only, he missed four games, you know, so there was that sort of aspect to it. But, I mean, he kind of disappeared it during stretches. And my question, I guess, and I'm just playing devil's advocate, really, because I like Juju. So what were you doing when you were 23? I know, it is kind of crazy.

He's only 23 still. I am going to go out on a limb and say you disappeared for stretches when you were 23. Try like my whole 20s. When Juju was 21. I don't remember my 20s, Danny. Yeah. When juju was 21 or 22, I can't remember. The point is he was like a top eight fantasy receiver.

Like he had one season where his quarterback went out in week two. A guy named Duck was throwing him passes. What is more on the nose than he was literally catching passes from a guy named Duck? this was what we're all excited about Deontay Johnson I don't know it's to me I'm again I'm playing devil's advocate but no but I get that but in 2018 Antonio Brown and Juju were both top five in targets so it's not like this offense can't support two receivers juju and Antonio Brown both top 10 receivers and if they go anywhere near leading the league in passing again and like they did two years ago then Deontay and Juju Smith-Suster could definitely be worth I mean all right Antonio I almost said

Antonio Brown there he is a bum So I got a question. So I agree with you about Juju, but is he as certain as the other guys going in his range? On our ringer fantasy football draft guide, he's with Amari Cooper and DJ Moore and Calvin Ridley and Adam Thielen. Do you trust him as much as all those other guys? So that's an interesting group because all those guys have been hurt. Like Amari Cooper has had just a lot of foot injuries. I think he played through Planner fashitis for a lot of last season.

Adam Thielen had a lot of soft tissue injuries last year. And Juju also dealt with, I believe. quad injury. So at the end of the day, you've got to bet who do you think is going to recur? Amari Cooper has just been hurt a lot and has been inconsistent his entire career. Juju basically had like a bad six week stretch, but Thielen has dealt with injuries and he's older. And Juju is a lot younger, is less wearing tear on him. And at the core of this, though, guys don't do what Juju do at 21 or 22 years old. There is a threshold for if you can perform at a high level in the NFL when you're 21 or 22, there's basically a 90% hit.

rate. It's like Randy Moss, Odell, Jujuj, like those guys, if you're that good, don't miss. And that's really hard to find. And I'd rather bet on that when someone who's 23 than a guy like Camari who's sneakly 26 or Thielen who I think is 27 or 28 already.

Okay, so you just mentioned someone that I wanted to talk about, Odell Beckham, because when you're talking about Juju being in the same class as Odell Beckham, that begs the question, like, is O'Dell Beckham still? You know, is he is he going to have the career that we all thought he was going to have a couple years ago, or is he kind of is going to fade into the background this year?

That is the question for me. I am bullish on Beckham. I'm bullish on overall the Browns, their overall offense. And we'll just lump together Baker Mayfield and Beckham together because they're going to be playing in the same offense. And I think, you know, if Baker Mayfield has a good season, Beckham's can have a good season and kind of vice versa. So let's just talk about these two real quick. Yeah, well, we had huge Super Bowl accent. We had Super Bowl expectations for the Browns last year.

It's like trust the process and then they went all in. And then they went. They won the Super Bowl and they proved everyone wrong that they overturned the organizational rot in Cleveland. So coming off that Super Bowl win, what do you think? So are you saying, are you telling me we're not going to do a Browns week this year, is that what you're leaving to? I sure hope not.

But no, obviously, I'm kidding. The Browns did not win the Super Bowl. But the whole team is terrible. So why are they? Yeah. Why will they or will they not be terrible this year? sure. You know, there's, there's no one thing that you can kind of put your finger on that, that kind of explains why Mayfield struggled last year, but he did, he threw 15 interceptions

from a clean pocket. In other words, he wasn't being pressured on those 15 interceptions. He just tossed up bad throws. I think he was just really forcing it. He was trying to play hero ball, like their team was not living up to expectations. He wasn't living up to expectations. I think he started pressing. And I think overall he just ended up, you know, like I said, trying to do too much. And that was kind of... Like too many progressive commercials? Yeah, maybe.

Like, you know, have you seen him in any new commercials lately? Hopefully he hasn't... No, well, that's why I... That's why I agrees. They're going in on the quiet off season. It's like when you... A guy like Baker... Post type.

He was not in... He's never been in the position where everyone's like, yeah, you're going to be great. He's like the transfer. He needs everyone to be against him. And then he said the commercial thing was a mistake. And now they're going into quiet mode. But like, you said there's no one thing that you can point to

to explain the... the Baker thing. There is one thing you can point to with Odell, which is Baker revealed, Odell needed hernia surgery in August and that the Cleveland training staff mishandled the situation. You never hear these stories come

out. Usually when players, if they ever come out, players leave a team. I can't remember a star player ever having a teammate reveal. Oh yeah, by the way, the team messed up the quarterback situation, but he played all, O'Dell played 16 games with a hernia injury. It's extremely painful. So, and I mean, Baker

said, and I'm quoting Baker said, he said, I'd say that wasn't handled right, he's not able to run as well as he should be able to. It wasn't handled the right way in our training room, end quote. So, I feel like that's just an undercover story. Like, when you look at O'Dell,

people look at so many things when they see O'Dell, but they forget he played through the whole season in constant pain and he's healthy now. Jarvis Landry is coming off hip surgery. We don't know if he's going to be ready for week one. They don't really have a good third receiver. They're two tight ends. David and Jokey wants a trade.

Austin Hooper, I don't think he's ever met Baker Mayfield before. He's definitely met Craig, though. Oh, now you have one degree of separation from Baker, Craig, and you're the third string quarterback in the charges. But I just, O'Dell could get a lot more action here than I think people realize because there's this idea of like, oh, there's a lot of mouths to feed in Cleveland. Not really if Jarvis Landry isn't as ready as we think. So I like O'Dell.

I was kind of, I think I kind of see Beckham being one of the top target guys in the NFL this year, potentially. Last year, he actually quietly ranked 12th in targets. He was 18th in receptions. Everybody kind of talks about how he had a terrible year, how he's due for a bounceback. That kind of by definition means he had a bad year. But I mean,

he still had decent numbers, 18th in receptions in the NFL. And the other thing that's really important to think about is positive TD regression is coming for him. I think he's going to be one of those guys that has potential to score double-digit touchdowns this year. I saw this stat per Ian Hartett's at PFF.

only seven receivers had more than 20 incomplete targets that were deemed to be their QB's fault last year and Beckham led the way. So Beckham was definitely, you know, affected by Baker Mayfield's struggles. He was affected by randomness in terms of the touchdown category. So I think that is going to regress to the mean positively and he could kind of like get back up there and where we expect him to be with touchdowns. It's also just expectations. You know, it's like there were such massive expectations in the Browns and people think that when you trade for O'Dell Beckham, he's going to be good immediately. We've talked a lot. Receivers and quarterbacks can't just establish a connection immediately. It takes time. You can't just

do that in one off season. I'm like everyone was in on O'Dell last year. A lot of those reasons still exist. I'm in on O'Dell this year now that everyone's out. And to me, it's an example of the DeAndre Hopkins thing. I'm out on DeAndre Hopkins this year. I think he's going to be bust, not because he's any different than he was when he was Houston Texan, but because to say that DeAndre Hopkins will just be the same in Arizona as he's. he was in Houston kind of diminishes all the work and practice that he put in with Deshawn Watson. Him and Kyler Murray can't just establish that. It's like taking a charger out of one outland putting into another one. It takes time to develop that connection. And DeAndre Hopkins

price has no give. It's like a best case scenario. Right, right. I will be, I'm in on O'Dell this year and I'll be in on DeAndre Hopkins next year when everyone's out on DeAndre. What do you think, Craig? It just depends how many commercials Kyler Murray does. So we'll have to see. Ooh. Baker, man. Too many commercials. It was like the first season. Remember Chevy Chase on SNL?

Just nailed it year one. Everyone thought he just thought he was the fucking B's knees. And he leaves to be the next whoever. Paul Newman didn't work out. That's a way, that's a really way back like reference there. I like it. Well, I think that he kind of gave it away that he has no idea what he's talking about

with the Paul Newman reference. I think Chevy Chase thought he was going to be the next Clark Gable or something like. Is Paul Newman the salad dressing guy? Yes, but he's also the actor. that's why he's famous, Danny. Butch Cassidy? Craig, you got another bounce back boss candidate for us?

Yeah, so I want to talk about Jared Goff, who had a rough year last year, but man, Goff was looking good his first two years with McVeigh. He wasn't, like, picked defenses apart good, but he was good.

You know, he was like a quality fantasy starter. He was like a spot-up shooter on a basketball team where maybe he couldn't bring the ball up, you know, and beat a press with his handles, but he could hit an open three,

you know, if he got the ball. I mean, he could knock him down. And last year, the Rams just sucked. Are you projecting yourself onto Jared Goff? Like your basketball game onto Jared Goff? That's interesting. I'm like a stretch too. So, yeah, Goff sucked last year, Rams sucked last year.

But they were so good two years ago. They had the 11th most yards ever. And they had the second most points behind the Chiefs that year. We all remember that crazy Chiefs Rams game. Oh, my God. So one stat that I just thought was interesting for Goff to consider if you're thinking about drafting him this year is Goff threw the ball the most in 2019.

I don't think people know that. He threw the ball the most more than any other quarterback in the league last year, but his TD rate, which is the percentage of passes you throw that turn into touchdowns, was 28th. He threw the ball the most, but his TD rate was the 28th. I mean, that's not going to happen again. It was 3.5%, which is basically one in every 28 passes he threw a touchdown. Lamar Jackson's was 9%.

Which is basically one in every 10 passes Lamar Jackson threw it was a touchdown. and Lamar threw the least in the league. So 2018 and 2017, golf was top 10 in touchdown rate. And I think it's a lot more likely for that to happen again than for last year to happen again. Golf will be better.

That is another stat that tends to hover towards like the career average. It's one of the ones that you have these outlier seasons and you can typically bank on regression to the mean. Goff's touchdown percentage the last two years under McVeigh, 5.7 and 5.9. So put it back at that area.

I'm not saying golf's going to be a top five quarterback or anything like that. But if you had him one year, if you like him, if you're comfortable with him, I think he'll be a quarterback one. And he's being drafted as the quarterback 19. So I think he's a steel, like, in the late rounds. I think he's going to be a QB1 too. I'm right there with you. I think that makes sense because the Rams offensive line sucked last year and Jared Gough sucked too because he was running around. And I don't know if you've ever seen Jared Gough run, but he looks like a newborn giraffe. That kid is maybe he was born to be a quarterback, but not to be on the run. And the Rams, like there was a specific reason. They had so many injuries in the middle of their

line. They traded for the interior linemen. They shuffled around. And they didn't really figure out what their line was going to be to like week 11. And then they kind of Jared golf got a lot better. And I think this year they have the same group. And without those injuries and with a year of like actually knowing who their linemen are going to be, there's so much deeper than last year. I think they're going to be a lot better. And Jared golf with under pressure is bad. And Jared Gough under with time being told in his ear what to do by Sean McVeigh before the play is really good. So that's a good one, Craig. Dekid, you got a quarterback this year? You think he could bounce back or be a bust?

Yeah, I think that Matt Ryan is a good bounce back candidate this year. And it's funny because, you know, he was a QB. He was a QB1. He was a QB11 to be precise last season. So it's maybe a stretch called a real bounce back candidate. But if you look at the last few seasons, he basically alternates between elite level quarterback play and middling quarterback play.

And he was a QB2 in 2016, the QB 15 and 20. 2017, the QB2 in 2018, the QB 11 last year. So, I mean, if you do the, if you do the math, and I'm not doing the actual math here, but he's going to be the QB2 again in 2020. The offensive line, which had a lot of injuries last year, should be solidified a little bit. Guys coming back from injury, you know, he's got two of the best receivers in the NFL. Julio certainly one of the top receivers in NFL. And then I think a lot of people, including everyone on this podcast,

I think Calvin Ridley's stars rising. The Falcons have a really tough schedule, so it seems like they're probably going to have to play in a lot of shootouts. And, yeah, I mean, I just think he's this veteran guy. He's been around. He has that connection with his receivers. And, you know, there's that continuity factor that's involved here. I just think overall they're going to have to, you know,

score a lot of points, throw the ball a lot, and Ryan could really benefit from that. Wait, you're telling me Matt Ryan's like the San Francisco Giants who win the World Series every off year. Matt Ryan is like the number two quarterback in fantasy every even year. I'm not not saying that he's not. Wait. That was too many knots. Put it all together. Matt Ryan, the most boring MVP in recent memory.

Matt Ryan is just, I mean, even down to the name is just the most boring, forgettable name. It's every on the most boring, forgettable team. I mean, even the Falcons fans listening to this are like, yeah, like they're not even mad. They're just kind of like, yeah, the Falcons are forgettable, which we could forget them. So everything about his career, it's weird because. He's really good and will be really good and no one cares. Yeah, he's like, okay, have you guys seen Sleepless in Seattle? He's like when he's like the first boyfriend of Meg Ryan, Bill Pullman.

He's like a great guy. There's nothing really wrong with him. But like she's going for Tom Hanks. Like he's just better. I just got an email from Sean Fettis say I'm fired because I have not seen Sleepless in Seattle. Oh. Can you guys finish the podcast? D.K., have you seen it?

I mean, yeah, I've seen it. I've seen it a long time ago, to be honest. I don't remember exactly. Well, you have a newborn child. So you're literally sleepless in Seattle. Wow. I know, DK. I'm surprised as a Seattle guy. But I wanted to talk about a guy who also has an equally boring name as Matt Ryan, David Johnson, who I think is just a prime bounce backer bust. A prime bounce backer bus candidate for this year. He's been all of them. He's been everything. He's been a hot topic on this pod, but he really works for this for this episode. So I want to reiterate that this does work on paper. He's 28 years old. He's not 38 years old. He was the best player in fantasy when he was 25. Now he's the best O-line and the best quarterback of his career, and he has a coach who's perhaps his very own career

could rely on David Johnson's success. He hasn't been fired for this far that he's golden. He can't get fired. He's unfriable. He's omnipotent. First of all, he's just making unilateral. First of all, Bill O'Brien has mastered this thing of like,

he doesn't have anyone qualified under him to like take the role so he can't be fired. Anyway, I'm sorry. I keep going about David Johnson. So I think he's one of the last three down backs you can draft. Texans like to run the ball. And he basically just has to do what Carlos Hyde did last year for him to return the value of the spot you draft him in this year. So I was just kind of perusing the internet about David Johnson.

And I landed on last year's rankings of a lot of experts. Matthew Barry had him at number five overall, not just for running backs, players. Evan Silva had him at number six. Scott Barrett had him at number four. So at age 27, after an injury riddled shitty year, everyone had him as a consensus top five guy. And it's just been one more year. It's not like he's too old now.

Did his talent completely disintegrate? Everybody was so in on him last year. And now that's just all gone. He's on a better team now. I don't know why the difference is so large. Craig, don't yell at me. Jeez. But I mean, you make really good points, honestly,

because I'm in that camp where I just am like, I've completely stopped believing in it and believing in David Johnson being that like caliber of fantasy players. So you're speaking to me directly in that and I hear what you're saying and I actually respect quite a bit of it. It's true. Like he is the perfect post type sleeper because, you know, he did like nothing in reality really changed all that much. He's in a new offense. So that's like a factor. But he's going to get volume.

It's also worth explaining what happened to him last year, which is he had nine carries for, sorry, 18 carries in the final nine games. And basically what seems to have happened is he had a combo of back and ankle injuries that the Cardinals just kind of lied about very politely. But they didn't list them on the injury report, but I think we can all agree.

He was not himself and there is a weird, because the Cardinals were not very forthright, but his health, I think that's contributed to us writing him off, right, D.K.? Yeah, absolutely. I mean, there's like a GIF online that I think is really, really contributing. to David Johnson's like overall just reputation.

There's this like stretch play. They run to the left. And he like in, in his defense, like he was waiting for the blocking to like line up for him. But he looked so slow. He was just like laboring to get like to the line of scrimid. His ankle was like pulsing with pain.

That's the thing. But it was like that play in particular just made him look really bad. I just, I wish I could do an experiment. I wish we could get every fantasy expert across the world. to just all agree to be like, let's make, I don't know, Tevin Coleman are number seven running backers. We're all going to do it.

Just a conspiracy. Yeah, Kevin Coleman, top 10 back. Well, this is the year because the season's not going to happen. So if there was every year for everyone just say, fuck it. We weren't wrong. So that's my spiel on David Johnson. I think he could be a balance. One last thing on that, the Cardinals had the most injured offensive line in football

for each of the last two years. So that's crazy. Probably won't happen again. It's good. like, that's also good. Matthew Barry's number five guy last year, just saying. I am fully invested in Duke Johnson this season because, just because I'm taking the anti-David Johnson, like, angle.

I guess I'm just, I'm all in on Duke. Anger. All right. We've been too positive. There's been too much niceness and breakout, bounce back, whatever stuff on this podcast. Let's get into the bust, man. Levy on Bell. This whole Levi-on-Bell jet's tenure has just been a bit.

It's just ridiculous. From him signing there, which I was actually very supportive of him signing. there. And then almost from the beginning, it was like Adam Gase, the Jets head coach apparently didn't want him. The GM who signed Levy on Bell was fired two months later. And then Adam Gase distanced himself saying he wasn't like, like a, you know, a report in his story saying Adam Gase didn't want Bell. And then they went into the season and Leviom Bell looked good, but the numbers were awful. Now we're coming into this season. And Adam Gase has already said, this was in May, quote, I do think we have some guys that can help maybe lessens

the load on Levion to where it's not all about him. Hopefully we can get some of the younger backs to where we can make a good one two punch to where we can really excel instead of feeling like it's all on him all the time. First of all, Gase hates all his good players. Gase hates the good players, number one. Number two,

he said, let's give some of the younger guys the reps when they signed Frank Gore, who's the oldest freaking player in like NFL history. He's like 70. That's just to the off the top. But mostly, I cannot express how much I don't believe in Adam Gase. It is hard to even explain. And we don't talk about defense much on this thing.

But for a moment, let's linger on Jamal Adams getting traded to the Seahawks. What Jamal Adams said a couple days before to the New York Dilley News, there was a lot going on in the world. And this went under the radar because of that. but the best player on the New York Jets said about the Jets head coach, quote, I don't feel like he's the right leader for this organization to reach the promise land. As a leader, what really bothers me is that he doesn't have a relationship with everybody in the building. At the end of the day, he doesn't address the team.

If there's a problem in the locker room, he lets another coach address the team. If we're playing shitty and we're losing, he doesn't address the entire team as a group at halftime. He'll walk out of the locker room and let another coach handle it. end quote. That's not like just talking shit. That's a specific thing to say. Our coach doesn't ride with us when times are tough. That's like one of the football like 10 sins. You can't do that. And it's also dovetails with all of the criticism with Gase, which is when the times are rough, he shirk's responsibility. The offensive line last year, every time there was something went wrong, he just made people switch positions. The guard will play tackle this week. That's kind of the book on Gase.

when he was the coach in Miami, Devante Parker's agent was openly feuding with him in the media. When have you ever heard an agent go on record to antagonize a head coach in the middle of his season? It never happens ever, except with Gase.

Why do I say all this? Because the times will be rougher in 2020 this season than ever and relationships and asking players to buy in this season will be more important than like any other season. and Adam Gase has like the worst relationship with this team of anyone.

And it seems like his relationship with Leviad Bell is poised to be like the worst one in the NFL. I have no idea how this could possibly work. This has been a passionate episode. Dude, the Jets. This is what I'm going to say about the Jets. There's such universal disdain and non-belief in Gase that it's like almost a given that he's. going to be really awesome this year. This might sound unfair.

No, this might sound unfair. Can I give you a window and guess why I don't, why I believe the relationship thing? Like when he says that the interpersonal skills aren't great, may I read you the best thing that's ever been reported on Theathletic.com? Yes. Oh, I know where you're going. I would not, I don't mean to talk. I'm just saying like, this is a real thing.

I would not believe this story if it were not from the athletic reported quoting his wife himself. Adam Gase in the delivery room as his wife was delivering a baby. This is quoting of the athletic. Gase told his wife to schedule the operation for 10 a.m. Quote, so they pull, this is his wife speaking. So they pulled the baby out of me and said, it's a boy. They didn't even put my organs back and sew me up before he says, you good? I said, yeah, I'm good. He said, all right then, I'm out. They said, do you want to cut the umbilical cord? He said, no, I'm good. And then he left and had a meeting with Peyton Manning who was surprised because he's like, isn't your child born today? So I don't say that to make fun of him. I'm saying that because

I believe when there were like a half dozen people who say this guy doesn't have the interpersonal skills, I believe it. And then I just truly believe that the guy antagonizing his players in the year of 2020 is not going to have a good team. And Levy on Bell is not going to be the running back. Maybe that was way too much. I don't know. We should have a therapist on and talk about the Bert, like the whole baby situation with him. I feel like he's got a lot we could dive into with Gase. She hadn't even, they hadn't even finished putting my organs back in. That is, that, that fucking hits.

That hits hard. Dude, his child is literally connected to his wife. He's like, I'm leaving. Jesus. I like that he said, you good. So you know what? When Jamal Adams says, he doesn't address the group, the team as a group at halftime, I think he's right.

I think that's true. Didn't even make it the half. Half time of the birth. Oh, my God. Anyway. So anyways, the bottom line is Leveon and Bell's going to go off this year. You're saying Levion's a bus?

Yeah. I think Leveon Bell's a bus this year. That's what I'm trying to say. Invest in La Michael P. Ryan, right? Not Gore. Invest in... Invest in no one except Chris Herndon. Invest in...

Anyway. Someone else give us a bust this year. All right. So my next breakout bus candidate is Aaron Rogers. I feel like we haven't talked about... I feel like the fantasy community just pretty much doesn't talk about Aaron Rogers anymore

because he's kind of had a weird. last two years. He hasn't really been fantasy relevant, but he still, I think, wouldn't, would you say he's still considered like a top three, four quarterback in the NFL? I wouldn't say that's the consensus anymore. You don't think so? Thanks to Ben Baldwin's valiant efforts. No, I think you polled America, absolutely. And if you pulled NFL Twitter, no. Yeah. Maybe Twitter's just a different world than the NFL world. It's probably actually

the case. So here's the thing. I feel like everyone thinks that Aaron Rogers, It's like, is the question is, is like, is Aaron Rogers washed or is it Matt LaFleur? Is it the offense? Because I think that we've all, the general kind of public assumes that the last two years, Rogers just hasn't thrown the ball as much. It's a different offense. He's not given the opportunity to kind of put up the same numbers that he used to like in the mid-2010s. But so my stat on Aaron Rogers is that he's actually thrown the ball more in the last two years

than he did during his four best fantasy seasons. His four best fantasy seasons are 2011, 13, 14, and 16. He threw the ball 546 times on an average in those four years. The last two seasons, he threw the ball 583 times, which is about 40 more passes. The only difference was his TD rate, which is what we talked about with Jared Goff. Everyone thinks the LeFleur scheme is holding him back,

but he only threw 28 less passes with LeFlefx than he did in the last year with Mike McCarthy. He actually threw more touchdowns with LaFleur than he did with McCarthy as well. And the biggest difference I've seen is that it's just been his rushing touchdowns are down, not necessarily his attempts or his yard, but he just ran for less touchdowns. And it kind of seems like he's just been bit by the unlucky bug. And then he just kind of hasn't had enough touchdowns. But as we all know, like you said earlier, DK,

TD rate kind of climbs back to the middle over time. So, I mean, like we said, Gough had one bad year. Maybe Rogers just had two bad years. I mean, the guy was like a top two fantasy option for like five straight years. I don't know. I'm kind of starting to think Aaron Rogers might be a bounceback. And not to mention the biggest reason why he's a bounceback

is because of fucking spite because they drafted Jordan Love. And I can't underestimate that. You could have just skipped to this bite. This is the year of like when LeBron in 2012 hadn't won a title yet. And they were down three, two to Boston in the Eastern Conference Finals. And everybody was just ready to bury his ass. And he like did that.

He like didn't blink for the whole game and scored 45 and 15 and played like 45 minutes. I think that could be Rogers' year this year. You ever get like shoved by accident by someone or on purpose by someone at a bar and you just like have a moment of like rage for like one second that you have to harness? I think that Aaron Rogers walks around like that for the rest of his life after this Jordan Love pick

Yeah and like Now he's got to look at him in the locker room every day Every time he makes a good throw And all the coaches are like lauding Jordan Love he's gonna be pissed He's got the same name as his brother I don't know you know I was gonna say

Isn't the one thing that's holding this theory back Is I feel like Rogers has been pissed for a while here Well no he had to invent slights Like there was that whole story Bleach Report about Aaron Rogers still has to pretend to care like Mike McCarthy was on the 49ers when they took him in 2004 when they passed out on him from Alex Smith. Now it's like, no, this is real right now in your face. He's saying all the right thing. Conjuring up reasons to get pissed during the game. That's a whole other thing. All the guys who watch the Jordans. I am in on angry Aaron Rogers. That's a stock I want to own. It's like Apple stock. I can't imagine it's going to go. I think I like him as a bounceback. For the record, since you guys made fun of me for the Matt Ryan thing, Aaron Rogers. I am in an angry. was the QB10 last year. So bounceback is a relative term. I agree, but he, he's not fantasy relevant.

Like, no one talked about him last year. The quarterback 10 is not what you expect that of Rogers. There's a big tier drop from like the top tier quarterbacks and then. He's just like one of the guys now. But there's a lot of similarities with the guys we're talking about here. James Connor, David Johnson, Aaron Rogers, guys who were drafted at their positions pretty highly and then burn you. And then you kind of overcorrect, even though,

if you look at the evidence with fresh eyes. You're like, I don't know if Aaron Rogers should be going so late. But then people are like, oh, well, he doesn't rush. So, but no, I love Aaron Rogers this year. Also, he just won Aaron Rogers in your team. And he doesn't cost you anything. That's amazing. And he kind of does rush.

Yeah, average just like 250, 300 yards a year and like four touchdowns on the ground. Like, he does rush him. He's a scrambler. D.K., do you have any last bounce back or bust for us? You know what? So, like, I was looking at Philip Rivers and T. T.Y. Hilton last night. And I kept going.

back and forth on where I wanted to land on these guys, where I want to land on the Colts offense, because on one hand, Rivers looked pretty much shot last year. I mean, 23 touchdowns, 20 interceptions. He was not good. Such a bad hand. It's just he didn't look good. And he was playing in an offense with legitimately good talent. Like there was guys around him. There was not a huge amount of, well, there are excuses. Their offensive line, you know, was not awesome or anything like that. I don't know. I just think it's very, very difficult for me to figure out exactly what to believe of Rivers this year. He's going to an offense with less talent, but a much better offensive line, which could benefit him greatly. He's going to a team with a easy slate of defenses that he's facing, which on one hand could be really good.

Or on the other hand, they might just run the ball a lot and play a ball control offense, not pass that much. So I don't know. I actually don't exactly know where I land with Rivers until I Hilton. and I tend to say I'm fading both of them. I'm not really having any of these, having them on any of my teams this year. But I'm interested to hear what you guys think of Philip Rivers and Ty Hilton overall, that Colts offense in general.

I don't want Rivers and fantasy, but if the Colts are really good and Philip Rivers has time to throw for the first time in like, what, seven years because he went from one of the worst offensive lines in football to possibly the best. We'll all feel kind of dumb,

won't we? I mean, that would make a ton of sense. Like, he's with his old coaching staff with a better line than they had at the time, I wouldn't be shocked if the culture basically have the most continuity of any team

from last year except for quarterback, which is the most important position. But he's working with coaches that he used to know. He knows the system. So I'm not as worried about that. And then everyone else around him has been there. And then Ty Wighton, I think, is extremely underrated. I mean, he was hurt last year.

He hadn't missed a game years before that. So I really like this team. I kind of think Jack Doyle, could be like Antonio Gates Light. Yeah, you love Check, though. Insane for that. It's a good one. But I'm not at all going to be surprised if Jonathan Taylor is a better Ryan Matthews, Naheem Hines

is like Danny Wooded, Darren Sproles, and T.Y. Hilton, okay, I don't know where the comparisons keep going, but the point is they're really good. And you mentioned, you know, that Phil Rivers is going to have a lot more time to throw this year? You know what he's going to have more time doing also? Relaxing, studying. He's 2,000 miles away from his nine kids now. He doesn't have to do

the daily commute from San Diego to LA. On like a Wednesday night, he's helping his kids with fractions and state capitals. And now he can be studying the playbook every night in his quarantine hotel room. He's old enough that he doesn't know how to use the Zoom. So he's going to, like, he's going to lose all the time he was saving because he's going to have to learn how to use it. You know what it's like to have to keep track of nine different kids on Zoom? I can only imagine. Like, can you, like, DK has one, DeKK, can you imagine if you had eight more Calvin's?

Having one kid completely messes with your entire lifestyle. I don't know what having nine kids would be like. It's insane to think about. Is it like cheaper by the dozen that movie where eventually like the kids start taking care of each other? So it's like eventually it's like a positive margin of returns. You know, I don't know, but I've heard that a lot. I feel like people try and nail that into your head that the kids just.

It's going to have some time to breathe this year. Honestly, my hottest take is that Philip Rivers is doing life right and everyone else is wrong. Who makes fun of him is wrong. that's how I really feel. Fair enough. Let's move on before I have to defend that. Craig, you got another bounce back or a bus?

Yeah, so my next bounce back or bus candidate is Clyde Edwards Hilaire on the Chiefs, rookie running back. The offseason is different. There's no preseason. Clyde is getting drafted as the RB12 in Standard League. He's getting drafted as the number one running back on your team. He's never played a snap. He's on the Super Bowl winning Chiefs and has to protect Patrick Mahomes.

And we don't know if he can do that. and also the guy behind him who's getting drafted away later than him was fantastic in the playoffs in which they won the Super Bowl. I know that everyone's like, well, the only other running back that Andy Reid ever drafted in the first round was Lashon McCoy. Lashon McCoy had 600 rushing yards in his first year. And people compare, Andy Reid compared him to Brian Westbrook. Brian Westbrook had 200 rushing yards in his rookie season.

I just think it's a little rich for my blood to be drafting, Clyde Edwards-Hillair, amongst all these other established guys as the RB12 bust. I'm always happy to make my thoughts on this. It's going to be, yeah, it's going to be me against you guys on this one, I think. It's not like the chiefs don't use rookies. Kreme Hunt was like a top three running back in 2017. That's the only example. It was a different offense.

And again, Andy Reid said, we're going to use multiple guys. Damien Williams was the starter. It's a shortened off season. Everything you just said, like, it's not so much that Edwards O'Lear is going 12th. To me, it's Damien Williams is like outside the top 30. That's what's blowing my mind. It's like I'd rather have the guy. Those two guys, in my opinion, are going to 80 plus percent of the snaps.

The breakdown is TBD. Give me the one going in the 70s or the 80s instead of the 20s or 30s. And D.K. is sitting there so smug. He's like, how do I explain to them that Damien Williams sucks? And Clyde Edwards-Ailare is made for the Chiefs offense. Edwards-Hillair is getting drafted right after the guy who scored 19 touchdowns last year, Aaron Jones. Have you guys seen the Chief's offense? I mean, look, I understand your guys' concerns.

I understand the history behind it, Craig, and I get all that. But, like, I don't know, I'm still very much like, I'm chasing that upside. I'm chasing the fact that he could just go scorched earth. And it wouldn't surprise me at all. I think we saw what Creamhound could do in the Chief's offense, how he's so good at, like, running those vertical routes as a pass catcher. I think Edward Slayer can do that. I think it's a little overblown to talk about running backs,

being able to kind of like figure things out as rookies. Like it's not, I don't think the past protection is that important of a thing. It's like the way that they use him in past protection. You can use him as a scat protector or whatever. Just go out and a route and they can dump it off to him. So I'm just not as worried about it as you guys are. Bust. I'm going to say that I understand that Clyde Edwards-Helair is a rookie,

so he can't be a bounce-back candidate. But he falls in the bus category. And I don't know if he'll bounce back from being drafted as the R.B. 12 or 13 in drafts. Fair enough. Fair enough. D.K., would you rather have Clyde Edwards-Aler at 25th or Damien Williams 80th? Edward Slare.

Easily. I want to ask, I want to ask a general question. It's a philosophical question to wrap up to Edwards-A-Layer discussion. And Danny, it's like you asked me that, would you rather have Clyde at 24 or Damien Williams at 80? And that's kind of, that's a strategy I think some people use, like, in an uncertain running-back group take the cheapest one. Do you guys buy into that theory? Is that something that you use? I'm not saying that it's the wrong theory, but is that something that you guys actually do

consistently? Not consistently. Completely depends on the situation. Sometimes it's like you have to admit ignorance and be like, I don't know this situation. So like I'll grab the cheap guy. Sometimes it's a strategy. So like for me, the Patriots this year, give me Damien. Like no, the only way to completely mess up with the Patriots, yeah, is to think you know. what Bill Belichick thinks. The second you think you know what the Patriots are thinking you're wrong. So with me, I just like to bet against the certainty of, oh, everyone assumes don't, Sonny Michelle is the job. Let me grab Damien Harris with my last pick. Other situations like this year with, like the Niners is a good example, Rahim Mastard, who got the contract extension

today, this is Monday. That's a good situation of if you want to grab the cheapest Niners running back, I get that, Shanahan. But it's very to me, that's a coaching thing more than anything. This is just so unpredictable, yeah. All right, Dick, give us the last bounce back candidate. So let's just quickly go over Adam Thielen and the Vikings. Obviously, he dealt with injuries last year. So that was the main reason that he was, quote, bust in terms of fantasy football. But going forward, you know, not having to compete with targets with Stefan Diggs next year.

I think it's going to be a big deal for him. I think he's going to be the unquestion number one in that offense. He has that really, really strong established connection with Kirk Cousins in that offense. That's not the shortened off. season. The chaotic off season is not going to affect, I think, that connection. And he's just in line for potential, you know, he's, he's one of a few players who could literally lead the NFL in targets. So, um, I think I'm just really, really bullish on him. His, I think his price isn't as, you know, he, he, I think he was a little bit cheaper at the beginning of the off season than he is now.

People are starting to kind of like get on the Adam Thielen train a little bit. But, um, he, he just has the chance to get so much volume. He's a really good player. People kind of forget that because he, you know, had to battle injuries last season. And a lot of people are talking about how Diggs is a better overall receiver than him, which we don't need to get into right now because they're not on the same team anymore. So who cares? In seven games with Stefan Diggs not on the field, Dillon has averaged more than a full PPR point more in those seven games.

He has 1.6 more receptions in those games than he does in games with Diggs. And then two more targets per game. So, you know, there's a clear focus on getting him to ball more when Diggs isn't in there. And I think that's going to be especially true this year. Yeah, we love him. We have him as 11th on our ringer, fantasy football draft guide. And I think I even personally have him higher. We may all have him higher.

Maybe it's just Riley or a couple other guys bringing him down. But we love Thielen. Yeah. I think this is the Adam Thielen pod. Yeah. This is a David Johnson pod. Apparently an Adam Gays pod. That's obviously true.

Wow. All right. So should I take a page out of Adam Gase? Like, I'm good. You good? I'm good. I'm out. Should we cut the ambillical cord of this podcast?

Let's cut the core to this podcast. Thank you to everyone for listening. Thank you to D.K. and Craig. Thank you to Adam Gase for the endless fodder. And all apologies to Jennifer Gase. You are a trooper. Thank you. We'll see you guys next week.