The Ringer NFL Show - Drafting Our Favorite Super Bowl Props

Episode Date: February 9, 2023

Live from Phoenix, The Ringer NFL Draft Show runs through their favorite prop bets of Super Bowl LVII, ranging from in-game bets like Travis Kelce’s total receptions and A.J. Brown’s longest recep...tion to the number of TikToks Jackson Mahomes will post and Rihanna’s opening halftime-show song. Click here to donate to the Turkey and Syria Earthquake Relief Fund. Email us! ringerfantasyfootball@gmail.com Hosts: Danny Heifetz, Danny Kelly, Ben Solak, and Craig Horlbeck Producers: Craig Horlbeck Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 When you're lost in the darkness, look for the pod. Specifically, the Prestige TV podcast on the Ringer Podcast Network, where we're breaking down every new episode of HBO's The Last of Us. On Sunday nights, grab your battery and join Van Lathen and Charles Holmes for an instant reaction to the latest episode. Then head back to the QZ on Tuesdays for a deep dive with Joanna Robinson and Mallory Rubin. From character arcs to video game adaptation choices, story themes to needle drops, we'll parse every inch of this cordyceps-coded universe.
Starting point is 00:00:27 Watch out for mouth tendrils and follow along on Spotify or wherever you get your podcast. Bring your NFL Draft show. I am here in person with Danny Kelly, Ben Solick, and Craig Horlebeck. Hello. Hey there. We are usually coming to you every Thursday to talk NFL draft, but we're in Phoenix for the Super Bowl.
Starting point is 00:01:03 And so we're just going to talk draft as it. We're going to just draft NFL prop bets because it's our favorite show of the year, just doing my favorite show of the year, just doing prop bets. And then Salk's here. And Salk is it gambling? Savant? I was thinking Sivant, but yeah, let's not say Adet. because my mom
Starting point is 00:01:17 connoisseur. We'll use a different word. Well, your mom will love you no matter what. We're going to just go one by one and draft Super Bowl profits. I got to tell you the truth,
Starting point is 00:01:28 I don't totally know how this works. I'm just going to say off the bat with transparency. It's a very loose format. We're just going to go around and talk about our favorite profits. Yeah, but we're drafting. But it's for her drafting, yes.
Starting point is 00:01:40 Okay, so we're going to, we have a lot of fun of profits. Honestly, honestly, it's my favorite two days of the football year. It's not actually a game. It's the Thursday, Friday, Saturday, like going to the weekend where I can just look at the props for three consecutive days going to the game. I think it's the most joy I get all year to football season.
Starting point is 00:01:55 Before we do that, though, I want an extreme potentially irreversible tonal shift in the show. And I actually want to be like serious for a moment. As many people listening probably know, but in case you missed it or just saw a headline, there have been these catastrophic earthquakes along the border of Syria and Turkey this week. And the latest death toll is like 15,000. And it's likely even higher than that. and, you know, people, children trapped under rubble, it is horrific. And so we figured we're doing this podcast. It's very silly.
Starting point is 00:02:20 We're talking about very stupid bets and putting a dollar or $10 on Patrick Pomas's passing yardage. Or will Andy Reid wear a Hawaiian shirt to the Super Bowl? Not the most serious fair we discuss here. So we were basically thinking, you know, whatever amount of money you were going to bet on the Super Bowl, take whatever chunk of that, whatever percentage you're comfortable with. And we just ask you to kind of throw it to some of the organizations that are trying to help
Starting point is 00:02:42 all these people. We've got one organization linked in this episode description, and we can put it on social media as well. I'll make sure to tweet it out at Danny underscore hyphitz. That organization is the Turkish philanthropy fund. It's specifically, it's their earthquake relief fund. That money provides food and emergency medical supplies, the displaced families. It also just helps the frontline workers. So we have a link in the episode description, and then obviously there are also plenty of other worthy organizations as well.
Starting point is 00:03:06 So any amount is a generous amount, and you can see that again in the episode description. And with that said, we can go back to our incredibly pre-executive. privileged and frankly very silly, very silly jobs and discuss whether Andy Reid will wear a Hawaiian shirt to the Super Bowl, which is minus 15,000. So it's kind of like compound insurance. It is. Well, no, no for no. No is like minus 15,000. So it's like, obviously he won't, but like should you just put that in like the S&P 500 or take your stocks out and just put it on that and just make 3% return? Does that, is that like good finance? I've bet on yes at those. on. Give me that kind of odds, right? I mean, like, think about it. We're going to be sitting in the
Starting point is 00:03:47 stadium, like, six hours before kickoff and be like, why are we here? This is boring. Like, well, I'm really dialed in on when Andy arrives and what he's wearing. We just hand him a Hawaiian shirt. This is what you do. Right, exactly. Andy, put this on. That's what prop bets are for. They're for filling in excitement and times in the gaps of things. Okay, so we're going to do the draft. We're going to go in order. I was going to figure out the draft door ahead of time, and I forgot. So you don't know. Does anyone want to go first?
Starting point is 00:04:15 Okay. Yeah, I'll go first. All right, Craig. Let's go in ascending order of who loves the Wopper song the most. Oh, we got to talk about how the Wopper song is now remixed to what was it again? Burger cheese, burger cheese, burger cheese, burger cheese, burger cheese, burger cheese. Burger cheese, as alluded to on our podcast. We scoop.
Starting point is 00:04:34 We're the Adam Schaefter of the Burger King advertising market. It's amazing. I'd love it if we could just have everyone who makes jingles on our pod. like once a month and just break jingle stories. Right. We're the jingle guys. Well, they said that they're doing the burga cheese ad and I was like, oh, and then I was like, oh, that's a joke.
Starting point is 00:04:49 KFC's like, God, we got to get on the fantasy pod. We're doing a jingle. We need to get that out there. And they released it on Spotify too, which is great. Shout out. I mean, it's all coming together. All right, you want to just go clockwise, counterclockwise, the way we're sitting in this lovely hotel room?
Starting point is 00:05:02 Yeah. So I'm last? Well, depends which way we go. You want to go clockwise. You're the guy who didn't get the order ready. Go clockwise. All right, we'll go clockwise. All right.
Starting point is 00:05:09 My first prop bet is just everything Travis Kelsey related. I'm just taking all the overs. I'm not messing around. I like it. We're using Fandle on various sites. You can get his number around, his receiving yards number around like 79.5 to 80 and a half. I'm just taking the over.
Starting point is 00:05:22 Catches around 7.5. If you parlay this together, 79.5 receiving yards, seven and a half catches. It's plus 147. He's gone over. If you look at him in the playoffs, like Travis Kelsey in the playoffs is a completely different beast. He's actually played 17 playoff games,
Starting point is 00:05:36 exactly, a season's worth. And he has 127 catches in those. in those games. But in the playoffs, he's been over 95 yards in the last seven of eight games. Yeah. Over 95. And the line's like around 79, 80 today. He's had over seven catches in six of his last eight games.
Starting point is 00:05:50 Like, you can even, you can even like tie it together more. There are props where you can get like Travis Kelsey to have nine or more catches, 85 or more yards and a touchdown. It's like plus 340. I'm hammering all of that. I was going to say that Kelsey is like Apple or Amazon stock. It just keeps going up. But didn't Google lose $100 billion yesterday? so maybe that's a bad example.
Starting point is 00:06:09 Yeah, now is not the time to mention tech stocks. Craig, last time the Eagles played Kelsey, four catches, 23 yards, and six targets. Concern? Was that in the playoffs? That was 2021, week four. Okay. No concern.
Starting point is 00:06:23 Doesn't bother me. Travis Kelsey is a machine in the playoffs. I'm not worried about that. Craig said I consume no data from the regular season. No football from September to December. I mean, starts in January. Why did Kelsey only have?
Starting point is 00:06:34 What was the line again? Four catches for 23 yards. the reason is because Patrick Mahomes only had six incompletions in the entire game. He could throw basically whoever he wanted whenever he wanted, and Tyree Kiel had 11 catches for 186 yards. There we go. Did the Eagles get a new defensive coordinator? No, same defensive coordinator, Jonathan Gannon.
Starting point is 00:06:55 They have changed how they play coverage. They have much more talented players, and Vic Fangio consulted with the team this year. So last year they played a ton of cover two against the Chiefs. It was like 29% of their snaps. It's the highest single game number of any game. in Gannon's career. Say that again? They played cover two on 29% of the snaps.
Starting point is 00:07:11 That's the highest single game number of the last two years for the Eagles defense was against the Chiefs week four cover two. This year they play about a third as much cover two season long as they did last season. They're not a cover two team anymore.
Starting point is 00:07:21 They're quarter's team now. So there's more room for Kelsey underneath and I think that Kelsey's going to be a higher volume player than he was. So I don't mind the props with Craig. I just definitely think that this Eagles team is going to say,
Starting point is 00:07:31 hey, we had a nice game plan. We had a lot of eyes on Travis Kelsey. A lot of zone players on him last time. They're going to do that same approach this time. It's not going to be the easiest game of Kelsey's life, but who else you're going to throw the ball to? Skymore? Like, yeah. Kelsey is a safe bet in that way.
Starting point is 00:07:45 You wrote about Kelsey this week, D.K. Yeah. I mean, it's like nothing that really is novel or whatever, but I just think it's so striking how he is legitimately the only number one receiver who's a tight end. You know what I mean? Like he Mark Andrews, I guess you can kind of say
Starting point is 00:08:00 is, but like he fell way off this year. Obviously there was a lot of issues in Baltimore. But like Kelsey's legit. The the number one receiver on this team and that just doesn't happen at the tight end position very often. He's, I wouldn't say unique, obviously, because there's been number one receiving tight ends in the past, but he is really, really rare as like what he does, how he can move, how he can run routes. He can get open from the slot and on the outside just like so easily. He's just such a good route runner.
Starting point is 00:08:26 Such good awareness of where the defense is going to be, where the defenders are going to be. And he like, will like, you know, drop, step away from them right when he catches his ball and like picks up extra. yards. He actually led the NFL in yards after they catch this year. So I love this. I'm all about the Kelsey stuff. So shameless plug, Solic and I, we also do the NFL show on Fridays. We're doing the Super Bowl preview recording that later today. And I was talking to Stephen. Basically, one of the things we're talking about in the show is, why don't they just double Travis Kelsey all the time? But the interesting answer is like, she just to make it really hard to double Kelsey and also the Eagles don't necessarily even want to do it. And yeah. And also, like, there's a misconception
Starting point is 00:09:03 about double teaming, which is that if you double team a guy, he isn't open. It's not true. In order to double team a guy, you have to have rules, right? Like, Belichick would run like one double 87, like two guys in man coverage. But you can't just play like-old code. One double-ease. Yeah, yeah, right. But you can't just like, okay, two guys in man coverage.
Starting point is 00:09:20 They have to play with leverage. Like, okay, I'll be underneath him and to the outside. And you'd be on top of them into the inside. If you breaks your way, you got him. If it breaks my way and I got him. One of the things the Eagles will do in zone is they'll have like one guy on Kelsey's left, one guy and Kelsey's right. And it's like, okay, both their eyes are on him.
Starting point is 00:09:33 Let's double team him. And then Kelsey will just turn around. And the ball will be in his chest the moment he turns around because Mahomes and Kelsey are same brain fusion dance, right? So like double teaming a guy makes it seem like he isn't open. But because you have to still play with rules, there's still ways to break the rules, especially when Mahomes and Kelsey see the game so similarly.
Starting point is 00:09:49 So yeah, double Kelsey as much as you want. Malm's still going to throw it at him. It's Mahomes to Kelsey. There's inevitabilities in the NFL. This is one of them. It's kind of like a car chase where it's like the fast and the furious and like two cops are chasing like Dom Torreto. And it's like, okay, but like he just stops.
Starting point is 00:10:04 It just like drives off the road. like that. Yeah. I like a fast and furious analogy. Speaking of Travis Kelsey, there's a couple of props that I outlined that I'd like to bring up. Great. Number one, tight-end position to be the first to score a touchdown. It's plus 3-10, so 3-1. Oh.
Starting point is 00:10:21 I think this is a pretty good bet. Like, Kelsey is number one, like their number one target, scores a lot of touchdowns. How many does he have in the playoffs? Do you remember? Like a thousand? I think it's 11 or 12. Nobody knows. And- Nobody knows. In addition to that, I mean, like, Dallas Goddard is a good player, too.
Starting point is 00:10:37 And let's not forget about Jack Stoll. It's 15 and 17 games. 15 and 17 games. There you go. So, I don't know, I just looked at this one. That's almost won a game. Obviously, you know, the Eagles could be the first to score a touchdown. But I think Goddard is a big part of their offense also.
Starting point is 00:10:50 So, I mean, that kind of like helps out. But obviously, Kelsey, to me, is the favorite to score touchdown for the Chiefs first. He also, I'm sorry, he's also run for one. So it's 16 in 17 games. Jesus. somewhat related to this. Well, first of all... 16 touchdowns and 17 playoff games.
Starting point is 00:11:08 Yeah. So, first of all, yeah, thoughts on that. So what do you think? So I really like that. One of the ones that I have later, which I'm, you know, spoiling now and maybe I'll draft it later, is Noah Gray to score a touchdown plus 850.
Starting point is 00:11:19 I literally had the same one. Noah Gray is the second string tight end for the chiefs. There we go. And this game very much projects for the chiefs to be in multiple tight end sets. They've played a lot of multiple tight end sets this year. They're six in the league. in the rate of plays in which they have at least two tight ends on the field.
Starting point is 00:11:34 Last year, they weren't a multiple tight end team, right? They still had Tyreek Hill. They had like Byron Pringle. You know, they had a wide receiver room that they really liked. There was one game last year where they were really high rate of multiple tight end sets. Week four against Jonathan Gannon's Philadelphia Eagles. Interesting. The Eagles are a very light personnel team.
Starting point is 00:11:51 And so the chiefs say, okay, we're going to put two tight ends out here. But you mean like literally like they don't weigh much. Like literally they're light. The Eagles don't have a four three defense. They don't have, they don't play. they don't have one. They can't get four defensive linemen and three linebackers on the field. They don't do it.
Starting point is 00:12:05 They'll do five two and they'll do like a four, two, five. And they'll put three linebackers on the field and goal line, but they do not have a four three defense. So you put tight ends on the field. They're like, here's a safety. Or they're like, here's Linvold Joseph. Maybe he solves this problem for us, right? I'm going to ask you this again in five hours.
Starting point is 00:12:19 We do the NFL show. Why don't they just treat Kelsey like a wide receiver and just like, oh, they have two tight ends in the field. Screw it. They have one tight end in the field. They do. They are treating Kelsey as a wide receiver. The problem is every so often that wide receiver lines up right off the hip of the offensive tackle and block somebody.
Starting point is 00:12:32 And somebody he's blocking is a 205 pound corner lighter for the Eagles. Avanti Maddox is like 190. Chaunceyarner Johnson, who is their strong safety. He's also like below 200. And now Kelsey looks like rock block. Clyde Edwards-Alaher 14 carries for 102 yards against the Eagles in that game. And the thing about Clyde Edwards-Alear is he's not great at this. And drive-by for Clyde.
Starting point is 00:12:56 Just catching straight. It's like the arrested development of beauty passion with Ann and he's like, oh, Anne's going to be his beauty pageant. What are you doing here? She's like working on the set? Stage hand or? Clydes at the Super Bowl? Yeah. So they have Isaiah Pacheco, who's been a better runner than Clyde Edwards O'Reary,
Starting point is 00:13:12 one of the best runners in league this year in rushing yards over expectation. They have a really good rushing offensive line. Like, they're going to put multiple tight ends on the field a lot. And because of that, you have, you know, have this chance for Noah Gray to go over his receiving yards, which is something I have legitimately in the real world. Noah Gray touchdown, which I have legitimately in the real world. This, though, tight end to score the first touchdown really nicely gives you exposure on just like Travis Kelsey first touchdown, which is a great bet, but also picks up guys like Noah Gray and Dallas Godder. I think that's really good.
Starting point is 00:13:37 I didn't see that one. I love that one. Literally, all right, this is, well, this worked out really conveniently for me having no plan. But it's like a metaphor for my life. But I also love Jody Fordson. Their other tight end for a touchdown. And I had this down. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:13:48 I had this circle the day the props came out. And then Sal picked it as his like Gary Russell, like random player to score a touchdown bet he does every. year, which made me feel great, but Jody Fortson's 14 to 1, just watching the Chiefs, I feel like they do try to get Jody Fordson, the ball in the end zone all those. It's like 14 to 1 from the touchdown. I love like, the
Starting point is 00:14:07 Kelsey Discord touchdown is basically like a dollar for dollar almost. Noah Gray 8 to 1, 14, 14 to 1. I'm going to do all of those. Yeah, absolutely. It's a fun day for sprinkling the tight ends. And if you play DFS, don't go in my tournaments, going to other tournaments. But Noah Gray and Jody Forton are those
Starting point is 00:14:23 cheap guys that you want to drop into the roster. And if they a touchdown. You have a huge edge. So absolutely. It's a day to commit to the third tight end of of the Kansas City Chiefs, baby. Welcome to the Super Bowl. Speaking of this, though, I wanted to add one more, which I just thought was ridiculous and funny, and I don't know why it's on here, but fan duel. Both Jason Kelsey and Travis Kelsey to score one plus touchdown each. What are the odds? 200 to one. Describe to the scenario which Jason Kelsey scores a touchdown. I know. It's very, it's very sad. Like a lot of people have this Jason Kelsey touchdown score thing, but an order to do that, the Eagles would have to make a rookie, Cam Juergens come in cold to snap the
Starting point is 00:15:01 football in the low red zone. In order to get Kelsey somewhere where he can be eligible, they have to change who's snapping the ball. You almost need to bet on him like recovering a touchdown in the end zone. I was going to say, oh, I like that. The one, the one, my job in theory is supposed to know most of the NFL rules. The one rule I've never understood is what are the rules of offensive linemen advancing the ball? I don't actually, I still don't understand when they can, cannot pick up a fumble and run it. If it's cool, then they can. Let's consult the 90-page rollbook.
Starting point is 00:15:28 Yeah, they ask the Russian judges. I don't remember. I don't remember. I do have one of my props that I like to draft is adjacent to this, which is a Fandall. Adjacent Kelsey to this. It's adjacent to this conversation, which is Fandle has a big man TD prop. Any offensive lineman to score one plus receiving touchdown is plus 3,000. Earlier in the week, it was plus 2,500.
Starting point is 00:15:49 It's been bet down. People are on to this one. Yeah. Who's the lineman it would be? Right. Well, the Eagles, they're all like actually athletic, right? Exactly. Like the Eagles threw a touchdown to Lane Johnson in 2021.
Starting point is 00:16:00 They don't have a offensive lineman target this year. The Chiefs have an offensive line target in 2020, scored a touchdown with Eric Fisher, and then an offensive line target in 2021 to Mike Remmers. That one did not score because they're thrown on Mike Remmers for some reason. Oh, no, once he, oh, the alignment doesn't drop it. And they're like, oh, well, he's Mike Remmers. I mean, I just like, you know, it's more fun when it's like a guy who lives like an athlete, not like a 35-year-old vet.
Starting point is 00:16:22 anyway, the Chiefs don't have an offensive line guy target touchdown yet this year. And the Eagles don't. The Eagles obviously under different coaching staff, but rolled out the Philly Special last year in the Red Zone. It's not last year, last year, ball in the Red Zone. And the Chiefs tend to come out with really weird stuff in the Red Zone. This is not a prop I recommend in terms of making money. It is a prop I recommend. Just for fun.
Starting point is 00:16:45 In terms of when you're watching the game and you, you know, like, we all at the stadium, we will hear like 72 is reported eligible. And everyone perks up. Right. But when you're watching the game at home, you're looking, you're like, that's a really big tight end? What's that guy doing? And you realize, like, the sixth offensive lineman?
Starting point is 00:16:59 That's a fun moment. The adrenaline, you feel. Come on. Hold on. You're just watching. You just, you just see Andre Diller jogging in. You're like, is this it? Is this it?
Starting point is 00:17:08 Yeah. So I very much like in my, in my portfolio here for our prop bet draft plus 3,000. Big man touchdown. Yeah, those are super fun. I like that. All right. Who's next? I don't even know what's turn.
Starting point is 00:17:20 High fits? I actually think Craig's up. Okay. I like Mahomes' longest run to be under 10 and a half yards. Okay. Oh, wow. So you're calling him a bitch. So no running for the foul ball and the, no, what is it?
Starting point is 00:17:33 Well, I still think he'll run. Like, I don't mind taking the over on his yards. I just think an 11-yard run as far. No, he's running. He's Pablo Escobar holding a beer. Running for a foul ball. His longest run has been less than seven yards in six of his last eight games. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:17:46 Except is the exception literally last week? No, he didn't, his longest run last week. That was like an eight-yard run. What was the, was that eight yards? Well, it counted for like 20 something because of the penalty. Yes, but it was like that long. It was like a third and four or something like that when he scrambled. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:18:00 But 11 yards just seems really long to me for his ankle. I feel like he's going to be either sliding, ducking out of bounds, like not taking hits, not trying to get the extra yards. I don't mind you betting the over on his, on his totals, which is like 18, 19, 20 yards. But I think 11 on one run is a little high for my blood. 10 and a half if you take the under is minus 125. So like, hold on. What you were talking about the defenses that the Eagles,
Starting point is 00:18:22 play, right? Like, do they play a lot of just like man, like cover one, cover zero? They play a decent amount of man. And it's tricky to understand what exactly they're going to play in this game, right? They can man up if they want, Darius Slay on Travis Kelsey, but really only when Kelsey is aligned outside, right? If he's lined in the inside, then they're not going to play man because they don't want like a Bonte Maddox living with the Kelsey matchup. The thing is like, when you go back and you look at defenses that have historically been successful against Mahomes, cover three, cover two, quarters, man, whatever they do, they really trying to make sure they have second level guys of their eyes in the backfield.
Starting point is 00:18:54 Yeah. Dudes who are looking at the backfield because it's just you cannot have your back turn. I think the Eagles are going to play that way as well. So under 10 and a half makes a lot of like makes sense in that logic. I do like the overall Mahomes over just because this is going to be a game where Mahomes is constantly asked to manage the pocket, escape the pocket, get flush out of the pocket. The Eagles pass rushes, he's going to move them off the spot. The more he moves off a spot, the more rushing attempts he has.
Starting point is 00:19:17 And so you are kind of trying to hit a window where you're like, all right, like this makes sense is a lot of rushing yardage games, but I don't want him to, you know, break a tackle and get down the field. Can I ask you about that? Because I feel like defense is, I mean, you have to play in the chiefs talk about both sides of their mouth. I feel like they always say two things. We got to keep them in the pocket, but they're also like, well, we got to get them off their spot. Aren't those like the opposite things? I don't think that people say too much that they want to get Mahomes off of his spot. I think that in general, you would want to keep him in the pocket. Mahomes is the best quarterback in the league in terms of turning a pressure into a play that is not
Starting point is 00:19:50 positive for the defense. The bogo, the buy one, get one free. Exactly. You run the play, and then it goes to shit, and then you get another play. Like Mahomes, his pressure to sack ratio, right? So, like, how often he takes a sack on a pressured play is about 12% this season. League average is like over 20, right? He's the best quarterback in the league at getting pressured and not getting sacked. Sometimes that's a scramble. Sometimes that's a pass attempt, right? Even it could be like a throwaway. It's still erasing the negative. And so you can go about it as a defense one of two ways. you can say, all right, he really kills us with the scrambles. Let's just kind of, you know, slush rush him, right?
Starting point is 00:20:21 Let's just kind of, you know, condense the pocket slowly and not let him escape. Or what you see other smart teams do is they say, let's rush him with the intention of getting him out of the pocket in a direction we know, right? When he threw the game losing pick against the bills. Yeah, when he threw the game losing pick against the bills, wait, earlier in the regular season, the bill's rushing with the intent to move him to his right. And then you have a fourth son. Where Matelana was waiting for him, right? So you can do it a multitude of ways. the Eagles, they're going to try to sack them.
Starting point is 00:20:49 Like the Eagles are, this is strength against strength. Like I said, Mahomes is the best quarterback in the league at not taking sacks on pressures on pressures, gets through the best defenses in the league and turning their pressures into sacks. The Eagles, the Eagles, the eagles, just on all downs is like 11%. The difference between the Eagles
Starting point is 00:21:03 and the number two ranked team in terms of sack rate is the same as the difference between the number two ranked team and number 29th rank team. This team is ludicrously talented at getting the quarterback down. Yeah, they're just, they're leading back country line. On that one. Do you imagine they just tore his UCL ligament like on the first split drive?
Starting point is 00:21:16 again. Don't even say that. What the hell is wrong with you? I don't like anything. Do we have a prop on that? Well, there's a prop on how many players will throw a pass in this game. The line's two and a half on that. I had that one written down too.
Starting point is 00:21:29 That's Loki one of the best props that. Yeah, those are always fun to root for. Because Kelsey throws passes sometimes, right? Like, no, Cadarius Tony apparently has like a really strong arm. Tony, all right. I will give him that. You know how I feel Catarious Tony? It's like the fourth strongest arm in the NFL.
Starting point is 00:21:42 Cadres Tony had the best arm on the New York Giants. That is not in question. Yeah. So I had that one run down. Hit and Henneas to come in for like a player to. That's the, yes. I think that's honestly the, the fact that you can get the line in two and a half
Starting point is 00:21:57 when both quarterbacks are injured. I know. It's just they literally need one, they need to leave for one drive. Because if it's one play, they'll hand the ball off. Minchu. Oh boy.
Starting point is 00:22:06 So yeah, that one's plus 154. That's really good. The over on two and a half of passing attempts for players to make a pass. Yes. Yeah. I mean,
Starting point is 00:22:13 at the face of it kind of forget all the details. you're like, well, both quarterbacks hurt. How was that like a bad bad? Yeah, yeah. I have a couple related to that I want to bring up to. Any quarterback to have one plus receiving touchdown. So any quarterback to catch a touchdown is 50 to one. Philly Special.
Starting point is 00:22:28 Philly Special. So it's got to be hurt. Is in this game. He's part of this game. Like, no, why not? But Mahomes got, he dislocated his kneecap doing a quarterback sneak. And the chiefs were like, cool, cool. We're never doing that ever again.
Starting point is 00:22:43 So I feel like the Holmes is not. It's a receiving touchdown. So it's like a trick play. Yeah, yeah. So Mahomes is never running a route again. So it has to be Jalen Hertz basically, though, right? He got a broken knee doing a sneak? He wasn't running a route.
Starting point is 00:22:55 No, Mahomes. No, no, I know. I'm just saying, but now that he is a high ankle sprain. Andy Reed's not going to run him on the route. Like what they want you to think, baby. Exactly. This is why I'm all in. But yeah, it's probably more likely Jalen hurts.
Starting point is 00:23:09 They zig, I zag. Well, that's like Craig. Craig was saying that you get your adrenaline when you when like you play hurt and really the more injured teams actually do have the advantage. That's the real, that's the margin. That's almost as dumb as the Eagles are frauds take. Never corner an injured.
Starting point is 00:23:24 Oh yeah. So like all the Eagles fans, I think you had the Philly special probably got a big influx of listeners this week, not just for the Super Bowl, but because I think all the Eagles fans that listen to our podcast, um, hate our guts now
Starting point is 00:23:35 because we talked about whether the Eagles, is it bad that they've been winning basically every moment of every game they played this year? No struggle. No adversity. Yeah. 100%. I mean, Rocky like, worried are you now?
Starting point is 00:23:45 Rocky didn't just win every round. Yeah. It's okay. The Eagles fans who listen to the special are not thrilled with Sheila and I. We've got a lot of hate this week. People are really upset.
Starting point is 00:23:54 We keep saying Mahomes is good. And I'm like, how dare you? I got news. He is. I can't. I don't know what you want from me. The guy's really good.
Starting point is 00:24:03 They're always like, the Eagles are so much better than the Chiefs and all the Ben and she'll talk about is how good Mahomes is. Like, yeah, the Eagles are so much better than the Chiefs. And they're also in this game.
Starting point is 00:24:12 So, yep, that's what we got. I love that. Speaking of how great Mahomes is, sorry to go out of order here, but there's, how many TikTok videos will Jackson Mahomes post during the Super Bowl? Over one and a half. Over one and a half is a darned a half on. So is this kickoff to zeros? Yeah. Which again, you're getting like a four hour.
Starting point is 00:24:30 Which again, first of all, he's still doing the content thing, right? Well, so I was looking at his TikTok this morning and scouting. I love this. I was scouting. So the under is a favorite. Under one and a half is minus 190. Over one and a half TikTok is plus 140. but I'm still taking the over.
Starting point is 00:24:46 Sane juice for props. No, but $1.90 plus 140? Here's my biggest like 11% on Jackson Mahomes, TikTok. He actually doesn't post a lot during games. He does a lot of like pregame on the field. And like after the game as Mahomes
Starting point is 00:25:00 is running up to like kiss his child and his wife and doesn't even acknowledge Jackson Mahomes, which is really funny. However, like you said, this game is so long. What is this? It's like a four, four and a half hour game. Rihanna is performing at halftime.
Starting point is 00:25:13 He's guaranteeing. doing it during the halftime. That's one for sure. So I'm basically just have to bet that he will do a TikTok during the game during the three-hour actual football game in addition to Rihanna, which seems like a lock. I think that's going to happen. And because it's a four, four-and-a-half-hour game, can anyone
Starting point is 00:25:28 in their 20s not post something twice for four hours? That seems pretty different. I'm really worried about these new Twitter rules with how often we can tweet and during the game, I can't be live-tweeting. I got to decide whether I want a live-twee to play. That's very anxious for me. Wait, there's new rules on Twitter. I didn't see this. You can't live tweet? No, so like, you know how like Twitter went down yesterday?
Starting point is 00:25:46 Yeah, yeah. One of the reasons why is because they put like new limits on place for non-Twitter blue users. So you got to like subscribe now. So you can't, you can't do that many tweets in a day. Oh, buddy, it's a Super Bowl. I'd be tweeting. What is the point of this website if we can't tweet? I bet Jackson Mojones doesn't even know what Twitter is.
Starting point is 00:26:03 Yeah. So I'm taking, did you take the over? Does that, was that what you liked as well? I mean, it's one of those where it has to be the over, but also like, man, that's how they get you, right? You know, Vegas knows. What are you up to base? People like betting overs, yeah.
Starting point is 00:26:15 Roger Goodell's like, hey, little shit. You do an under one and a half TikToks today. No, it's not Roger Goodell. It's his dad. Did you see Pat Mahomes' father after that championship game? I think that he rained him in and was like, hey, stop fucking coasting on your brother during the games. But hasn't this been going on for years?
Starting point is 00:26:31 People have been making this joke? You think now is the time he's actually going to rein it in? No, I'm wondering if it's been that all season where he, like, has he been posting TikToks during the games all year? No, but he has been posting much more at the game. in the playoffs. Okay. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:26:44 I think that at the end of the day, the Super Bowl, it's 100 million people. It's a huge, you know, content opportunity. Yeah. It's like,
Starting point is 00:26:50 it would be a huge mistake. I just know that the Rihanna concert is a guarantee. So I just need one more TikTok and the other four hours of the game. That's a good take. Okay. I got one.
Starting point is 00:27:00 Okay. And I'm burning through mine pretty quickly. Let's back up a little bit. Let's go back to the beginning of the game here. Pass on the first offensive play of the game is plus 140. With these two teams, Especially the Chiefs. That's an excellent bet.
Starting point is 00:27:16 So I look back in the last few games. The Eagles are about 50-50 pass run. So they're like, you know, pretty even keeled or whatever. What's balanced? Okay. The Chiefs are not, the Chiefs are pass-heavy. Like, that's just who they are. So I just look at this as like, we're 50-50.
Starting point is 00:27:33 The Eagles, the Chiefs, like, I think it would be heavily favorite to pass. Have you looked at what the Chiefs do in the playoffs on the first play of the game? I haven't looked at like the Super Bowl. No. I looked at the last like eight games. and it was, I think it was like 70% pass. But they have two weeks to figure out their script. And it's like, I feel like the Chiefs like always, like that Chiefs bengal's game.
Starting point is 00:27:50 Didn't the both teams just come out and just like cart? Like the, I don't know. I feel like the first game with the offensive coaches, they always come out. I'm trying to get like into the brains of these like play callers and they have two weeks to like write their script. Are they really going to just be like, oh, let's just run it on first down. Yeah, they're like eight yards immediately. It's like fucking boring. I don't know.
Starting point is 00:28:05 I'm just like they want to come out with a bang maybe. That's all I'm saying. I actually kind of love this. I think this is an excellent. it's tricky I think both teams It could also be a run And there's a
Starting point is 00:28:17 What if it's not a path? There's another option They could go They could hand it off I'm overwhelmed By the potential here But what is Here's the thing
Starting point is 00:28:29 It could be a run Have you thought about the fact that it could be a run Plus 140 though It's better than a coin I mean put it this way The odds of that are so much better Than the coin toss odds It's like unbelievable
Starting point is 00:28:39 Anyway that's going to be my version of like the offensive line thing like I'm just going to be like zeroed in really really hyper focused on what the first play is I think you're going to leave after the first play the game I feel like that happens to me a lot though in these games they're so long you kind of lose like
Starting point is 00:28:54 the plot you lose like the excitement of some of these props like as the game goes along it's just you know oh extremely bad day couldn't disagree more before we get to the next bet it's the biggest game of the year and there's no better time to get in on the fantasy action on Fandle
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Starting point is 00:29:56 Jody. I'm trying, I want to ask the Fandle people to give me Jason Kelsey MVP, like get post odds for it. And then I want to walk around the press box and just be like talking really loudly. I mean like, it's crazy that that, you know,
Starting point is 00:30:10 Peter King is betting Jason Kelsey for MVP, or is voting Jason Kelsey for MVP. Crazy that, you know, insert incredible NFL sports writer who has a bet here is betting, or not a bet, a freaking vote.
Starting point is 00:30:23 I'm stuck on betting right now. It's voting Kelsey for MVP. And just see if I can juke the stats a little bit. I'm thinking about doing it. I think that you not only just implicated yourself in a crime, but then accidentally also implicated other people at times. I'm thinking about doing a crime this weekend,
Starting point is 00:30:35 just for fun. Doing crimes. Yep, that's Ben's next pod. doing crimes is so like this is criminal wow are you going to leave that in yeah for sure okay
Starting point is 00:30:46 I said on the philippad you already have said that before this week I'm gonna rig the voting so I can profit yes because I don't think they're actually gonna give me a Jason Kelsey MVP on just a fun story all right I got one do it
Starting point is 00:31:01 time for some next gen stats a.J. Brown ever heard of him real good I really like your pitches. Yeah. AJ leads the league this year in yards per round against press coverage, 4.5 yards per outrun, which is like insane. Right.
Starting point is 00:31:21 The league leader in like overall yards per run is usually around like 2.2, 2.3. So banana's number. It's the highest they've ever charted in the NGS era, which is six seasons now. The Chiefs are second in the league in their usage of press coverage. Interesting. Wow. A.J. Brown Down the field. You do the Brian Winhorse.
Starting point is 00:31:41 Now, why would that be? No, what is this? I can't see it, but we're all putting our fingers up. I got it. Now, A.J. Brown also leads the league in receiving yards on tight window throws this season. Now, why would that mean? Why would that be?
Starting point is 00:31:57 The Chief's defense is last in the league, and yardage given up on tight window throws. Oh, boy. 605. So the long and the short of it is this. I just can't play the ball. Can I ask you a stupid question? Hit me.
Starting point is 00:32:09 Does being last in the league in tight window throws mean you're bad at guarding tight windows? Or does it mean you're good at coverage? So right, this is what it is. It's the Chiefs play press coverage. They get tight to receivers. And then they don't have very big cornerbacks. And so the ball just goes up to guys of AJ Brown's sides. So just jump balls.
Starting point is 00:32:25 Right. And Trent McDuffie is like, you know, what was the T-Rex and Meet the Robinson say? I got little arms, right? It's just like he doesn't have the ability to get up to the ball. And so the chiefs, the chiefs play man coverage and they try to discourage these routes. But the Eagles throw it to AJ Brown a ton when he's in tight coverage. And he wins a ton when he's in tight coverage. And that's pretty much all the chief's got.
Starting point is 00:32:46 They're going to try to press him at the line. And AJ is incredible against that. There's two different ways you can look at this. You can look at this as an AJ Brown just receiving yards over game. What I prefer is AJ Brown longest reception over. Which you can find at different books at different prices. I want to see what it currently is at Fandall. So you can get at Fandall over 26 and a half yards for the longest reception for AJ Brown at minus 114.
Starting point is 00:33:10 Jail Hurd has been a little bit shaky throwing the ball deep since he came back from injury. But that's largely a noisy stat. It's only been like 10 attempts. And also, AJ doesn't just need to do it in the air. He can also do it with a catch and Rod Brown is unbelievable after the catch. So I like, I like a lot the potential for Asia Brown to get some jump ball targets deep down the field. He's really going to bring those down over 26 and a half for his longest reception. Can I ask you about the age Jalenhaired shoulder?
Starting point is 00:33:34 No. What? It's a pot. Yeah. So I, I guess you always ask. He has rhetorical questions. So I ask, so those, I guess, Deakin's say, it's, speak English. Dek and Craig, I think this week, it's just boiled over that they're like, we're tired of you fucking segueing with goddamn rhetorical questions.
Starting point is 00:33:50 Just say what you want. They're just like, four years. Just ask the question. Stop. He's like, what's that field of dreams line if they build it? They will come. And I'm like, why did you ask if you know the quote? Uh, okay.
Starting point is 00:34:00 14 floors just jump out okay uh Jesus is that too much yeah too far oh okay what was the question so have you heard the no um so he had six but I mean again how you categorize it blah blah blah but by true media he had six deep passes that were considered an overthrow in the first 15 weeks of the season yeah and then he heard a shoulder yeah and he's played three games and it's in those three games
Starting point is 00:34:28 he's had another six overthrows, as he did in the first 15 weeks of the year. And I'm like, isn't that just more like, I know it's a small group, but I think he's just overcompensating for the shoulder, he's just overthrowing shit? Because there's a little bit of after it, therefore, because of it
Starting point is 00:34:44 where it's like, oh, my whole life. Yeah, he's missed a few throws and he had a shoulder injury, so it must be because of the shoulder injury. Really, it's just like hard to throw the ball down the field. Like, Jaylen Hertz had six overthrows on downfield throws in the first 15 weeks of the season because he's so ludicrously good downfield thrower, but it's like a regression heavy thing.
Starting point is 00:35:01 Like it would be very unlikely for him to stay that accurate down the field, independent of a shoulder injury. But wasn't that the essence of why the Eagles offense was improved, like so much more dangerous was that Jalen Hertz became this more accurate deep pass? Wasn't that a huge part of it? He was always a really, really good deep passer. He's become a lot better throwing short and intermediate. But like deep bombs has always been what he kind of builds his house on, right?
Starting point is 00:35:18 Like he throws the ball well down the field. He played in those three games, he played the Giants, the Niners. Those teams were great teams in the Niners. Yeah, those teams walked up on the line of screen. image, they press the receivers, right? They try to challenge and force the Eagles to throw vertical. The Eagles, like, check in a lot of situations when, like, they get in a bad look against the defense, just be like, all right, well, AJ Brown, Devonte Smith, ah, you know, and they
Starting point is 00:35:41 just kind of like chuck it. And they let their star receivers make a play. Hertz is leading guys away from man coverage. He's a little bit over the top of them. It doesn't concern me too much. Like, I think, I thought Hertz looked a little bit like jumping and skittish against the Niners. I think he could look jumpy and skittish again, early Super Bowl, you know, whatever. But in general, A.J. Brown is going to get targets down the field.
Starting point is 00:36:02 You can take your watch to that. And while Jalen Hertz hasn't been the best version of himself last few weeks, I'm willing to trust that at least a couple of those get within range of AJ Brown, who's, as I talked about, unbelievable at the catch point. Okay. I have a prop. Do it. I think that this is like the easiest money that could ever be made in American history.
Starting point is 00:36:25 I'm not saying this is like the biggest ROI. I think it's the easiest money. that could ever be made. Okay. How many times will the Kelsey brothers facing off against each other be mentioned on the broadcast
Starting point is 00:36:35 over under 1.5? What? Are you serious? It's minus 320. Yes. That's insane. It's the easiest money that's ever been offered.
Starting point is 00:36:43 Now, okay, how do they classify a mention? I think probably in the least charitable terms possible, I don't think it matters. The overrunner should be four and a half. I was thinking when you said
Starting point is 00:36:52 it was going to be three and a half. I would want to know how they characterize a mention, but there's going to be a thing on the pod and there's going to be a shot of the parents in the stands.
Starting point is 00:37:04 And they're going to also the first time Travis Kelsey catches a pass they're going to show the little graphic and his brother and then Jason Kelsey will also get the graphic and they're like and his brother and like that's it.
Starting point is 00:37:12 They have to do, they each have to make one play and they're going to say it. The only thing I'd be worried about is if they have one of those packages where you come back in from commercial and they do like 30 seconds like they go down on the sideline report
Starting point is 00:37:20 and the silent report is like Jason Kelsey Kelsey and Travis Kelsey Kelsey have a podcast and they live together in Cincinnati and their brothers and they like to make each other smile and their mom's wearing a jersey Does that not count?
Starting point is 00:37:28 This is not worth this count. I'm just worried they're going to try to do it all in one. But I do think over one and a half is absolutely the side to be on, even with the juice. Can we give some context here? So at Media Night, they actually make it a whole production. And they introduce it like it's like at some live event. There was a boxing ring. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:37:43 Boxing ring. Yeah, they treated like their mom like she was a WWE star. She like came out and was like handed them cookies. Like it's little jailing hurts. Mahomes. Travis Kelsey. Travis Kelsey's mom. Like those are like the eight.
Starting point is 00:37:56 people on the stage. Like, okay, I don't know about your moms, but if my mom were in this situation, my mom would be on every radio show. Like, you know, Topeka, Kansas, 300 listeners. My mom be there 6 a.m. being like, I raise these boys. Like, you know, this is a, this is great mom energy. Well, here's my conspiracy theory. I don't think she made those cookies. She handed them cookies on the stage. She didn't make those cookies. Probably not. She should probably stop by insomnia cookies down the street here. I like, Popston. I like the Topeka reference. I don't know why. Topeka caught a stray. What's up with Topeka? Just like Clyde. I agree. I don't think she made the cookies.
Starting point is 00:38:29 No, I mean... Far be it from me to call the Kelsey's mom a poser. She seems lovely. I mean... No offense to your mom, but like her cookies, fraud. I like that one. Just like the Eagles. Okay.
Starting point is 00:38:43 I'm getting low on mine, but I got a couple more. Well, Warang clips, though, just being mentioned. They also have the... Will they mention or show a clipper picture of Andy Reed competing the punt pass kick, which is the best video. I was telling Craig about this. day. It's my, it's my Twitter. It is my Twitter header picture.
Starting point is 00:39:00 Is that it? Yeah, it's literally just like Andy Reed's torso because it has to be like one of those like longer pictures and then there's just like it's like he looks like the mountain standing next to like Tyrion or something. It's just like the smallest little kid. It's so freaking great. Also they spell his name wrong
Starting point is 00:39:16 but it's funny. Andrew Ride. I think they have to. He's the biggest kid in the world. Biggest kid alive. Have they done it before? Did they show it during the last people? That's where he gets it from. They play it a lot in the big games. It's worth it, man. It's so funny. It's the funniest clip ever. I went to Google. I just don't want to see it again. Have you not seen this? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:39:38 Yeah. And somebody in 2020 dressed up as Andy Reid from that photo for Radio Row and walking around wearing a big jersey and a helmet that doesn't fit. That's elite. That's so funny. Next year next to go to, I'm doing costumes, man. The costumes are the best people. Some guys are in a bucket this year. No, we're doing that for the combine because you said if Bryce Young shows up to the combine the show at 210. You're going to go to next year's combine at 210. Yeah, but not a costume. It'll be legit.
Starting point is 00:40:02 Okay. Who wants to go next? Who just went you? Yeah. All right, I have to do it. Obligatory Cadarius Tony. Yes. God damn it.
Starting point is 00:40:11 Get a phone call. Is it James? Is Kelsey's mom coming from? Campbell, California. I don't know what that is. The FBI heard that you're betting Cadarius Tony over again. It was like, Craig. Enough.
Starting point is 00:40:25 God? Is that you? Two plus touchdowns. You sicko. God loves a camel's like, well, sicko. Two plus touchdowns plus 2,200, aka 22 to 1. Nice.
Starting point is 00:40:36 I just think they're, Tony, he says he's playing. He's definitely playing, according to him. Two plus touchdowns. He says he's playing is the first part of the argument. We take people at their words, listen, I just think the chiefs use him like a closer now.
Starting point is 00:40:48 He's like Edwin Diaz. They just like get in within the 10 and it's like, but, like Tony's coming. Like, I don't know what they're doing. He's got his entrance music. But in some way. And like Edwin Diaz, he's there for like, I don't know.
Starting point is 00:40:58 Yeah. Nine pitches. Nine pitches, but in those nine pitches, he throws like a hundred miles an hour eight times. I like the way they use him in the red zone. They like they always disguise him. Use him in interesting ways. He runs out of the back field. Like, and he's the most dynamic like open field tackle breaker at wide receiver in this game.
Starting point is 00:41:13 So do I think it's possible that like every time they're in the red zone, they try and get Tony in there and give him the ball? Yeah. I'm taking two plus touchdowns. So like we, the three was, we went on Warren. We just did a video with Warren Sharp yesterday. And he was like, give us bets. And I was, Craig did the two touchdowns for Tony.
Starting point is 00:41:28 And I was like, I actually wanted Cateria's Tony under five snaps. And Craig was like, yeah, I don't, he could totally do two touchdowns. That changes nothing. I got no problem. I got a problem. What I will say, if you are looking for Tony exposure. And I am. No, I just want him to be exposed, period.
Starting point is 00:41:48 I like, there's no straight rushing props. There are rushing and receiving yards. his receiving guards is set around 25 and a half, 26 and a half. His rushing plus receiving set around 32 and a half. So you're looking at like seven to six rushing yards there. I like that a lot because I think he's going to get carries. The Chiefs like to use wide receiver carries to take the wind out of the sales of elite pass rushes like the Eagles. And they don't have Michael Hardman, who's their typical wide receiver carry guy.
Starting point is 00:42:13 Cadarius, Tony, and Skymore are the two players that make the most sense for that. And I think Tony's going to get more usage than more in that regard. Truly a unique player running the football. Um, you also, this seething right now. Yeah. I'm like actually furious. I'm also disappointed in all of you for a reason. Listen,
Starting point is 00:42:30 Tony is more theory than he has practice. Rout's question mark ability to be where he's supposed to be in a past concept. High quite, highly question mark. There's a reason he only gets like nine snaps. That dude's made out of rubber bands, man. I mean, he's incredible. He's blue. I'm also disappointed in all of you.
Starting point is 00:42:48 You're not thinking big enough. Three times. There's Tony. There is Tony's Super Bowl MVP is 150 to 1. Oh, done. Oh, shit. 150. He's literally tied with Gardner Minshew and James Bradbury.
Starting point is 00:43:01 That is actually so disrespectful and ridiculous. That's awesome. Quez Watkins for the Eagles is like 120 to 1. Oh, that's really bad. So I have one that's related to that. Are we done with Tony or we want to keep talking about Tony? I want to stop talking about him like six months ago. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:43:17 Okay, this is related and I like this Tony one. So maybe like these are close. but the Super Bowl MVP award, any position except quarterback is plus 260. So if any other position wins the MVP, you win this bet. It's eight out of the last 20 Super Bowls have had a non-quarterback winning the MVP.
Starting point is 00:43:36 It's usually receiver, I think, like most often. Cooper Cup, just won. Yeah. But the other thing I think that kind of goes into this is like if Jalen Hertz is banged up still and his shoulder's just not like doing what it's supposed to do, they're probably going to try and pound the ball, run the ball a ton, you know, engineer ways to like get the, get A.J. Brown and those guys the ball. I think there's more, it's more likely that,
Starting point is 00:43:59 like, a non-quarterback will be the MVP of this game for the Eagles if they do win. But I would, but I don't know if that's, I don't know if it's more likely, but like, there's a good chance, I would tweet that. I think it's weird that Kelsey's odds are 16 to 1. Like, it's like, it's like, I get why Mahomes is one third. And again, let's be real. If the Chiefs win, Mahomes is probably the MVP. Right. But if Chiefs is not, if he's not, if he's, not the MVP. It's either some defensive player where you probably can't predict it where it gets a pick six or something, but like
Starting point is 00:44:25 Travis Kelsey should 16 to 1 just seems like what if it's like 190 yards. Yeah, that's the thing is like I agree that there's a good chance as a non-quarterback MVP. I do think it's better to get exposure on like three guys just at their straight odds and probably hit that. Interesting. Yeah. Just because
Starting point is 00:44:45 the funneled, right? Like, the chiefs throw to Kelsey. Yeah. The Eagles throw to, like, A.J. Brown, a whole game or Devonda Smith, the whole game. Right. You don't see a lot of, like, balanced performances. Even, like, with, like, the Jalen Hertz case, they'll funnel, like, Hertz because they'll run him in the red zone. And, like, you know, okay, like, AJ's having a good day. God is having a good day. But Hertz is two touchdowns. Like, this is going to Hertz. You know what I'm saying?
Starting point is 00:45:10 So it's tricky. We're, like, getting the exposure on everybody is nice. But I do think, like, it's probably better EV. Don't quote me on it. it was probably better mathematically to just be like a little bit of Miles Sanders, a little bit on AJ Brown, a little bit on Travis Kelsey. And then if it ends up being Devanti Smith, sucks to suck. Also, it could be a pass rusher. The other MVP, dude, because you said not quarterback, Chad Henning is 100 to 1. At the end of the day, like, if Mahomes leaves the game in the first half and the Chiefs win, Chad Henning's going to get the fucking MVP.
Starting point is 00:45:38 Ben, can you explain, you told me this at dinner last night and I had no idea. Can you explain how betting for finals or for Super Bowl MVP works? Yeah. So there are, I want to say, I want to say it's 80% of the vote. Oh, you wait, betting or voting? Sorry, voting. Voting. It's like, you have to vote before the end of the game, right?
Starting point is 00:45:56 Betting on Super Bowl MVP is an interesting endeavor because of what Ben told me last night about how they actually vote for the award. Yeah, yeah, we were talking. Well, it's the votes in by like the two minute warning. That's really the lead changes. Like last year, Cooper Cup won the MVP. Those votes were in before Aaron Donald ended the game. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:46:14 So the winner is chosen, this is from Wikipedia, but I think we can trust it. The winner is chosen by a panel of 16 football writers and broadcasters. Their vote counts for 80% of the total tally. Viewers electronic ballots count for an additional 20%. Oh, I didn't know that. Most voters are asked to vote within about five minutes remaining in the games. Five minutes in the fourth quarter. That's insane.
Starting point is 00:46:35 So in other sports, they have to get the cabin before the ceremony. But in other sports, you've had like five, six, seven games, the NBA five. finals for NHL. The NFL took one game and it's not over. Yeah. Now it continues. They are allowed to change their mind when the game ends. They can nominate one player for each team with instructions to count their vote for the player of the winning team. So in the event that it's like 24 24, they can say, hey, if Eagles, Jaylon Hertz, hey, if Chiefs Travis Kelsey, and then whoever wins, that player gets the MVP. So they are allowed to change. However, you know, peep behind the curtain here, I don't know how they're submitting the ballots. I don't have an MVP voting ballot,
Starting point is 00:47:12 but five minutes left in the game, you know, they don't care as much as you think. Yeah, you send it to, you know, the PFWA. I have no idea who gets it.
Starting point is 00:47:21 I'm not, you know, you send it to whoever gets it. And then you're like, I want it to be Cooper Cup. And then, or like I want it to be, you know,
Starting point is 00:47:26 Nick Foles. And then Brandon Graham has a game winning strip sack. But you're in the elevator going down to the field. Right. And you're trying to get a good position or whatever. And you're texting. You don't have service. You're not on the wife anymore.
Starting point is 00:47:36 You're texting your editor saying, yeah, this is what we're going to do an update. You're like, It does skew the voting a little bit where you're like, you wish it could just be like, hey, who makes this game winning play with two minutes left? But it is,
Starting point is 00:47:48 sometimes, you know, it isn't always that. I'm not trying to act. I'm not trying to act like the people who vote don't care. It's more like if you care a lot about your friends and you're at a football game and you go to like the concession stand, you're like,
Starting point is 00:47:58 text them, do you want anything? And it doesn't go through and you're like, oh, well, it's like you can't update your ballot. And so the game ends and you're just like, oh,
Starting point is 00:48:05 like I submitted Cooper Cup. Uh, well, uh, okay, cool. but that if really unless the game if joe borr had gone down and scored they would update their ballot but the point being yeah sometimes the MVP already get wet in yeah that's so interesting i had no
Starting point is 00:48:19 idea i don't know why they can't figure that out or right after the game everybody votes electronically and you get it in time but well it's not a jingle that's why yeah maybe you need to get the bk guys on it super ball suit yeah i can't say so okay uh who's next we have not discussed fandles kick of destiny props which is this is not actually an ad. But you know, Gronk's kicking at a field goal? It's the giant thing is on our building currently.
Starting point is 00:48:44 Like there's a 500 foot tall ad for it on our building right now. I can't see through my window or like it's like distorted because there's this giant post in front of it. What is the deal? So if he makes this field goal, they're going to give out like $10 million.
Starting point is 00:48:58 That's not, I actually don't know. You should have done some research because I should have. I don't know. I always find those things funny where it's like if Gronk kicks this field goal, $10 million is getting donated to.
Starting point is 00:49:07 That's like, well, what if he misses that? No one gets that money. Sucks for you. I always think that with the college kids who have to shoot at halftime, it's like, hey, if you make this, get your tuition. If not, fuck you.
Starting point is 00:49:17 You're going to be straddled with crippling debt for the next 10 years. Did you ever know this? Craig, you have the opportunity to make a shot to win tuition? Yeah, I made a half court shot in college and won a car. Flex. Whoa. Half court. Half court, Toyota Tacoma.
Starting point is 00:49:33 The video I will give Craig credit is very cool. He's hammering. Yeah, he's right. Dude, he's having it up. No, no, no, no. The only question I have is, what did you do immediately afterward? Like, how immediate, like, after I left the stadium? Ball hits the nylon.
Starting point is 00:49:45 What happens? Hands up, walking. It was like LeBron after he broke the score. I have to tell you the truth. I don't like, I don't like being nice to Craig. He's like shooting. Throwing the putter. He acted like he was, like, expecting to make it.
Starting point is 00:49:57 It wasn't like, oh my God. It was like, that damn right. Wait, we have to pull this video. You have to hit it and then immediately act like you've been there before. Tacoma, whatever. I'm doing this in the, in the, in the park on Saturdays, baby. He pretended to shoot it.
Starting point is 00:50:09 You got mob to play a bunch of people too. He had the players came out. Wait, wait, wait, wait. We had a granny style first. Wait, so this is the video. All right, tilt that my way. Wait. All right.
Starting point is 00:50:18 I forgot. Go Aztex. That's right. State. Top 25 this year in basketball. Oh, wait. Look at the showmanship. He actually, like, he pretends he's going to like granny underhand it.
Starting point is 00:50:27 And then he's like, no, no, no, no, not, no, not. And then you get the crowd engaged. And then you get a little bit. And then he's like, and then he's like, swish. It wasn't even a bank, and he's just like, yep, he's like Maximus. He's like, oh, we're not entertained. Oh, well done, Craig.
Starting point is 00:50:42 Bravo. I'm proud to know you. I forgot you switched it. You didn't even bank it. No, funny. You can't bank it. You know what I'm saying? I didn't get the car because I was like, before I walked out, I was like, so what
Starting point is 00:50:53 happens if I win? The guy was like, I don't know, man, nobody ever makes it. And I was like, okay, it was like, win a Toyota Tacoma, a truck. And I was like, cool. So then after I made it, like, the fine print actually said it's a two-year lease. And I don't want a fucking lease. Yeah. So it's like we like threatened litigation essentially saying like you promised a car outright and now you're offering just a two year lease.
Starting point is 00:51:11 So we ended up like settling on a cash prize instead, which is better because I was on a campus that didn't require a car. But that's okay because now if we can get the burger king guys, we can get anyone. Toyota, if you're listening, this is your opportunity to make it up. Yeah, that's right. Send me a free car. You already give me money. You want a truck. I made a half court shot eight years ago. Give me a car. All right. So anyway, gronk, here are the things if gronk misses the cake. If he makes the field goal, it's like minus 100. Missing short is plus 200. Wait, how long is the field goal?
Starting point is 00:51:44 Like 30 yards? 35 yards? How long is the field goal? I think it's 35. Yeah. This wasn't part of my Super Bowl prep to tell you the truth. I feel like that's 25 yard field goal. Oh, chip shot.
Starting point is 00:51:55 No, I can't miss that short. Even with Gronks, I'm presuming lack of preparation. I'd be shocking. Is it my golf? What would blood alcohol level be when he kicks his ball? match. The old run under breathalizer.
Starting point is 00:52:10 The, is it like golf where if you try to swing really hard, you're going to pull it left? Yeah, probably. So the,
Starting point is 00:52:16 because wide left is plus 350. It's pretty good. That's actually not bad. The perfect prop. I like this. Hit left up. Oh, that's terrible.
Starting point is 00:52:24 What are other options? Hit the crossbow. The uprights, this is how they get you. The upright, the odds are like plus eight. That's obviously terrible. It's like I hit the upright.
Starting point is 00:52:33 Now that it's said it. Probably well. But wide left's, plus 350, wide rights plus 350, and shorts plus 200. I mean, short is if he just miss it. Like, if he, like, misses half the ball out of the short. Under short. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:52:44 There's the chance that he just like, he's not making a field goal, is he? 25 yards. Do you think you can make a 25-yard field goal? Is it 25 or 35? I was Rob Grancowski, and I also had like two months notice to not embarrass myself in front of 100 million people. Like, yeah, maybe. He's also like one of the most athletic people.
Starting point is 00:53:01 I keep thinking about the thing. He has a lot of weight. He looks like more. But the thing I try to remember about athletes is like if someone's athlete, Athletic goal 1A is like, I would like glory to win a Super Bowl, right there at 1B is don't embarrass yourself in front of all these people. And like, I don't, you know what I mean? That's probably always been thinking about.
Starting point is 00:53:20 He's shameless. I didn't care about being embarrassed. He's like the last guy who gives a shit. He does not care. He said he was more nervous for it than the Super Bowl, like playing in the Super Bowl. You believe that? We have been taking. You don't think that's hyperbole for television?
Starting point is 00:53:30 We have been taking players after word. I think he's more nervous than the fucking Super Bowl? well he's I mean probably not he's probably lying for but at the flip side he's doing something he's never done as opposed to saying he's done as a life he'd always been good at so what are you betting what are you betting what do you recommend give me the wide left
Starting point is 00:53:44 wide left plus 350 wide left plus 350 that's so lacking so like it's like a hundred percent confident I think I think he makes it in the first play no one knows that's the value yeah yeah I think that's right did you guys have any thoughts in the national anthem
Starting point is 00:54:02 oh yeah who's singing it it's Chris Stapleton to not forget a word is like plus 900 which I don't know what limits you can get down on that but that's a free roll. He's a country singer. He's got a singer from Tennessee. What if he kind of like mumbles?
Starting point is 00:54:16 Does that count? He's got to forget a word. But it's bad for the brand. Country singer has to get all the words. Is he playing? I wanted to try and find this. Is he playing with a guitar or not? Because a guitar, you kind of,
Starting point is 00:54:29 you can't hold as much. You kind of kind of keep pace, you know? I kind of feel like he's usually singing with a guitar, but I don't know for sure. Have you guys ever seen the Chris Stapleton, Justin Timberlake Tennessee whiskey Drink you away. I have. That's my favorite Chris Stapleton's wrong. I like Stapleton's
Starting point is 00:54:43 great. I couldn't pull Chris Stapleton out of a lineup right now, but he's not going to figure out of a word in a national anthem. He's a country singer from Tennessee that looks exactly that way. He's great. It's also mainly been women. I think like 14 and the last 17 national anthems have been women. And I feel like women hold notes longer than men. Especially Chris Stapleton. I will say that he's a line
Starting point is 00:55:01 speaks with a drawl, so it's going to take longer. Drawls are long? That's like a A very coastal elite. No, it's like actually a thing. That's why it's called a drawl. Oh. It's like onomatopoeia.
Starting point is 00:55:16 Drawl. You're saying drawl longer. You can just say drawl. Draw. Draw. I don't actually know if I don't actually know if I'm right. The word draw means to speak in a slow, lazy way. Thank you, Craig.
Starting point is 00:55:32 And it's kind of on a monopoeia. You can make it on a monopoeia. Drawl. actually it's not on the money I don't know I lose the national anthem every year just just do the anti-trail immediately took immediately took longer money
Starting point is 00:55:49 took over money so I don't know about the under there like whatever I take the second they begin I'm like I was such an idiot there why did I ever bet the over so what's your instinct let's go against it my instinct to stand to this there's also how long will the word brave be over under five seconds that's also here
Starting point is 00:56:05 my I think my my gut says under. Okay, so we're going over. Yeah, going over. Speaking of weird stuff, I have a bet on, I would be remiss if I didn't mention the ratings as a producer of the town. The ratings prediction is 114 million.
Starting point is 00:56:20 The record is 114.4 in 2015. Well, this is how I have to ask you how ratings work in the streaming era? That is factored in, but why I'm taking the over. The over is plus 120, the under's minus 160, and I consulted Matt Bellany on this.
Starting point is 00:56:36 So do we clear, 114 million viewers Correct. Like 100, like you would make $120 if you bet 100. Correct. Okay. Nielsen is now counting out of home viewing for the first time. On your phone? No, it's like bars, restaurants, hotels.
Starting point is 00:56:53 Oh, wow. Okay. For the first time. So that's going to go way up. They didn't count that before. No, Nielsen never used to count that. So if a thousand people were at the bar, they counted that as one person? Or nothing.
Starting point is 00:57:03 I don't, I'm not sure. What are you talking about? It just didn't count it. Look it up. It's true. They didn't even try to guess? I don't know. For the first time,
Starting point is 00:57:12 Nielsen this year is now counting. They didn't count it out of home viewing. They didn't count all the people watching the Super Bowl and the bars? I would come up. I would love that job. Where there's like, hey, like this was on in this bar in Topeka.
Starting point is 00:57:24 We'll keep doing Topeka. How many people watched it? And I just like Google the bar. I just look at it on Google images. I'm like, 100 20. And like, I bet.
Starting point is 00:57:32 And that's what I do the whole day. But I'm taking me over for that reason. I like that. And Matt agrees. Okay. I think that might be actually, this might be the most scientific that we do all day. Am I the only one thinks this is weird?
Starting point is 00:57:45 What's weird? They just didn't count bars? I mean, I think the whole Nielsen thing is a total fucking sham, but like, that's fine. I've been saying this forever. I used to be one of the...
Starting point is 00:57:55 No offense, but maybe elaborate for the people who haven't just been following your Nielsen takes for 50 years. I was a Nielsen, whatever, ratings person back in the day. What? Here's how it works. You had a Nielsen? Are we going to get sued by Nielsen if I tell this story?
Starting point is 00:58:08 Did you sign something? No. I don't know. I might have. It's fine. Whatever. Spill it. Honestly, it'd be good for context.
Starting point is 00:58:13 Literally, it's probably way different now as Craig has illuminated. But back in, uh, it was probably 2006 or something like that, 2004, they come, they sign up, you sign up for this thing. They actually come door to door and ask you if they can do this. What? And they found out that we're like the demographic that they, like, were trying to fill, like, the hole for. Like, basically it was a group of, there's like six of us living in this house.
Starting point is 00:58:34 We're all like 20 to 25 year old or whatever. And so they put this thing, they attach this thing to your TV. This was back a long time ago, so it's probably way different now. And then you're supposed to like press the button for how many people are in the room watching. And then it tracks what channels you're watching for how long. And you have to like actually do all this like manual stuff where you do it. But then literally for the entire like two years we did it, we just put one and turned on the TV. So it's just like we completely fucked up like number one, our job.
Starting point is 00:59:04 And then number two, we were representative of like 60,000 people. Like, we represented the entire demo for like 60,000 people. So it was just like, they're fudging the numbers. Like, these are not remotely close to like accurate. Well, I don't know how this never come up. I think I've told you guys this story. You have. I remember you saying you worked with Nielsen.
Starting point is 00:59:26 This is, wow, that's wild. They probably do it. I think it's actually way different now because we had like literally one of those giant TVs. that had like the big back on it and like emails at ringer fantasy football email email email.com if you have any experience with nielsen and um if you are alike or not alike with dk's experience and listen to listen to thursday's episode of the town it's about rom-coms however the end the call sheet segment where matt gives a prediction he's going to give uh his super bowl prediction about the ratings and he'll give insight on how that works a little bit more specifically nice
Starting point is 01:00:00 okay um most important part of the show Rihanna props we have odds on the songs Riri On the song she stings First song And keep in mind that it doesn't have to three minutes
Starting point is 01:00:14 Like Bruno Mars came out once Were you right? What was your guess? This is what you came for? Is that the best? Odds are not what I thought The first song odds It's diamonds is plus three
Starting point is 01:00:26 Is three and a half to one Lift Me Up which is the song The new song from the end Black Panther is 7 to 1, which if she came from the stage, maybe lift me up. Believe it is 6 to 1. I don't think they do. Hyvitz is so literal with the song choices. But it's not a banger.
Starting point is 01:00:39 Like, why would they start with it doesn't build, like it's not like a hype song. It's more of like a emotional song. Not all the songs in a halftime show or are we talking about the first song. This is the first song. I just don't think they're like, what if we started with Lift Me Up because Rihanna will be getting lifted up into the same. Not everything has to be like a metaphor. I don't know.
Starting point is 01:00:57 A metaphor. song of Black Panther too. Very literal. I don't know. So don't stop the music is the favorite. Plus 150. Oh, nice. Umbrella's 6 to 1, work is 9 to 1. We Found Love is 9 to 1.
Starting point is 01:01:10 Wait, they don't even have some of these. Wow. I think umbrella's going to be later because they're going to bring Jay Z on in like some dramatic fashion. I think they do the whole like umbrella or like three minutes of umbrella. I'm thinking it's going to be like room bars. That was the song that like she got famous for, right? Are they going to do Disturbia?
Starting point is 01:01:28 I love that song. Sixth grade band was ripping up the dance. Let's hear you sing it. My mind's in Disturbia. Beat up. Bap. That's a banger. Yeah,
Starting point is 01:01:38 it is. Oh, dude, we were talking about Kesha the other day. Solak's wife loves 2014 Kesha. And when they got married, he was like, we have to change the playlist. And we were like, we were shaming in last.
Starting point is 01:01:48 You don't like Kesha. No, not I don't like Kesha. Mayor, my wife would be like, I'm going to make dinner trying to put on some tunes. They would put on like, brush my teeth with the bottle of Jack. Yes. We're going to die, yo.
Starting point is 01:02:00 And I was like, why? And she was like, well, I made this, you know, workout playlist at high school. And I was like, and then nothing sense? TikTok on the clock. In order to be like married to me, you have to be like a very like patient and enduring an affable person. And she's that way with her music taste. But she's like, I decided I liked the song and that's just going to be fine forever.
Starting point is 01:02:18 And I'm like, they're still making music. New people are making music. It's good. And so, yeah, it was a big thing. I'm going to, I'm going with please don't stop the music. Because that song begins. with her just like saying with no music, please don't stop the music. That'd be like a really cool starting.
Starting point is 01:02:35 Like if there's no music yet, it's just her. It's like all dark. Yeah. Nothing. It's just her vocals. And then they'll have like the crowd like, you know how every person in the crowd gets like a little light thing? Yeah, she goes, please don't stop the music.
Starting point is 01:02:46 And it's like, bomp, bum, that'd be sweet. That's my bet. I don't know. I don't know what's going to be. What are the other options hyphitz? Give me the odds. So wait. Now I'm all confused.
Starting point is 01:02:56 I've read so many Rihanna songs in a row. I now forgot the name of the Rihanna song that I thought was going to start. It was... This is what you came for? Yes, it's not even listed. This is what you came for. It's the first song.
Starting point is 01:03:07 Guess you don't know what you're talking about. Maybe. Fine, but if that is the first song, I'll never let you together. Okay, that's fine. Okay. Do you guys have any other actual football props? The only one I was looking at...
Starting point is 01:03:21 You know, why I have it's probably... I think it's a Calvin Harris song. It's not a Rihanna song. Yeah. Yeah, so she's probably not going to start with a song that she's featured on. But to your point, my favorite halftime show is Bruno Mars, which I always forget, like the first minute of it was just like a rave. And the first song of it, Archie Domey the second. But he did billionaire, which is a Travis McCoy song where he just did the chorus.
Starting point is 01:03:42 But he just did the chorus to the song. Yeah. But that was the opening song? I think in retrospect, it might have been second. I don't think you opened with a song you're featured on. What was the first one last year for Drake? I'm going to turn it on. Hold on one sec. Is this okay if I turn it on real quick? Sure. I love that we're just all bill now where we just play songs out of our computers.
Starting point is 01:04:06 The best part was in 50 Cent. Came down upside down. Yeah, I was in the light. New double cheese. Snoop. Snoop. Good beginning to a halftime show. That was such a good show last year, man. That's a good way to start the podcast show. What are your favorite I love the Bruno Mars one?
Starting point is 01:04:30 Last year was my favorite. It's the only one I've ever seen live. But I was just, it was so cool for the stadium and for the people and for the variety of artists. I loved last year. I agree. I liked when Katie Perry was on that giant elephant.
Starting point is 01:04:43 Dude, the left shark, right shark thing? So funny. Did we ever tell you that our first person we ever wanted as a guest on our show was we wanted left shark? We talked to him on email.
Starting point is 01:04:50 We talked to him over email. I think we scared him off. He'd stop responding to us. He was like our personal jaws. He said, Please stop referring to me as Left Shark. Please start to contact. This is such a good origin story from the guys who got the Wopper, Wopper, Wopper, dude.
Starting point is 01:05:04 My name is Jeremy. Stop. Shut up, left shark. Come on our show. He blocked our email. It was like, Josh. He was like, he shot him with them. We just kept seeing the barrels.
Starting point is 01:05:13 And we're like, come on. We got to get him. Dude, the Left Shark phenomenon was the only thing that, like, kept me saying after that whole Super Bowl ending. Like, just the left shark thing for like the next week. That was the one with the sales lost. That kept me alive. Yeah, because the Russell Wilson Wilson
Starting point is 01:05:27 Interception at the one yard. Dude, honestly, you could convince me that those are the two best Super Bowl modes of the last 10 years. It's just that Malcolm Butler pick and the left shot. That's like the best thing that happened. This was Arizona.
Starting point is 01:05:37 So we're back, baby. Maybe we're gonna have some crazy thing happen. Well, we even mentioned fucking Kevin Durant got traded here to the city that we're at the stadium without our hotel or looking at it. Kevin Durant now should, he's just like rent a ring. He really is.
Starting point is 01:05:49 He should do like, he's 33, right? He's 34 years old. But like, I feel like now it's just like, he should just do like local car ads and be like, need a finals MVP? Call me. JG went, you know, 877 ring now.
Starting point is 01:06:02 Well, we were talking. So, like, I'm curious to you think. The numbers were. That's seven, did you? That actually works. Well, Craig was like, just come back to the Warriors. And I was like, if Durant, this was literally also before he got traded, it was like, if Durant went to the Warriors or now that he just joined the sons,
Starting point is 01:06:16 how many rings does Durant need to win in a row? So people are like, yeah, I respect you. Well, it doesn't matter. They won't respect him if he wins this either. No, but if they won't, if this, if this, if, if, if, if, if, if, if, Somehow, Devin Booker, Chris Paul, and Kevin Durant stay together for 10 years. And they won 10 rings in a row. People would be like, okay, I respect you.
Starting point is 01:06:31 So what, one ring? That's what I'm saying. One ring? No, no one will respect Durant. How many rings does Kevin Durant have to win in a row? My point is that's an obvious... How many would you have to win in a row? So people are like, actually Kevin Durant?
Starting point is 01:06:42 I said last night at dinner when Huyves was yapping about this. I said four. I think three was my thought, right? Where if he goes and wins a ring, it's like, man, screw you. And then if he wins the ring back to back to back, it's like, oh my gosh, I can't believe this worked for him. And then if it's back to back to back, it's like, ah, that's pretty cool. But if it's three, it's four, I think it's the four.
Starting point is 01:06:58 It's like, well, Jordan did three and he did. Three Pete's a super-sars. Four no one's ever done before. I think, well, maybe Bill Russell did it, but four in the modern era. Isn't that fucked up that he has to, like, four in a row? And yeah, sure. You guys are holding him to an impossible standard. Well, as someone who doesn't follow the NBA, did he ask for a trade after the-
Starting point is 01:07:16 Well, Kyrie got traded. I know, but like, did he ask for one? He signed an extent, he had three and a half years left at his contract. I think it was, you know, I'm sure he did, yes. Yeah, okay. All right. Well, after our cutting basketball analysis, I don't have to transition back to, do we want to do any more football.
Starting point is 01:07:30 My football, the only football ones I'd left, I mean, that I think are actually good. Marcus Valdus Scanling is 10 to 1 for the longest catch of the game, which just seems like, I know he's like more of a short guy in like short yardage guys. Are those the lowest odds for anyone? Not lowest for anyone, but it's like A.J. Brown's like not like one and a half to one for the longest catch or something. So like MVS being 10 to 1 just kind of leaped out. I'm like, I mean, one year ago, this guy was known for 70-yard touchdown.
Starting point is 01:07:56 So I don't know. And then the other one just, Warren Sharp gave us Patrick Mahomes over four and a half rushing attempts and kneel downs are included in that. So it's like three scrambles and two nail downs. And that's like, needle downs are. Yeah. Yeah. Four rushes and downs are, you know, like Mahomes rushing prop under hit in the Niners Super Bowl
Starting point is 01:08:14 when it was like over by like 13 yards because he was taking yield downs. He was backing up a lot. Right, right. Because they have like one. The betters are like, oh. They have like a minute 42 to. get rid of so he literally had to like try to stay up for a few seconds and kneel down one of the worst breaks of all time oh that's that's brutal yeah i think was it sal who gave out the mohamas under
Starting point is 01:08:30 and then like he was 13 over and then at the end and sa i was just like never and out yeah i'm so betting is easy dude um the other one just also fourth down opportunities um like chiefs to convert a fourth down's like yes is like minus 120 you know what i like is uh will either team convert a fourth down conversion in their own territory yes is plus 120 so it's like 49 or less great like yeah There's definitely going to be an instance where it's the second half and they're on their own 30 or 40 and it's like a fourth in inches or a fourth and one and they're like we have to go for it. Yes. Because you parley that with will there be a chain measurement in the game? Sure. Are they going to break chains?
Starting point is 01:09:05 Yeah, there's a does Jalen Hertz rush for a fourth down conversion prop that's like he's like minus 140 or something? Which is just like, yes, he will. They're going to sneak. Like what are we talking? What are we fourth down inside the one? They're going to do it. What other Jalen Hertz quarterback sneak props? I didn't even see any actually.
Starting point is 01:09:20 I mean, like, that's the one sneak prop. It's not explicitly a sneak profit. It's implicitly won, but that's the one that I've seen that I think is good. Yeah, in terms of actual serious bets, right? One of my favorite ones is chiefs over 0.5 rushing touchdowns minus 125. The chiefs have thrown a ton of touchdowns in the playoffs, but overall have been one of the best rushing teams in the league in the low red zone. Isaiah Pacheco is a great short yardage back.
Starting point is 01:09:46 They have a great short yardage line. Tony. And the Eagles are, Tony, obviously. And the Eagles are one of the worst red zone rushing defenses because they don't like to put heavy personnel in the field. And so, Chiefs over 0.5 rushing touchdowns, you protect yourself from getting Jareth McKinnon. If you take Isaiah Pacheco, who's plus one tiny to score a touchdown. To me, that's ludicrously low odds. Throw on Mahomes.
Starting point is 01:10:07 I know they don't sneak, but they ran like a speed option against the Niners in the Super Bowl a couple years ago. Mahomes can take it himself. He can scramble and go for it. That to me is one of my biggest positions of the week. I want to ask you this one. So like because you I think because you have a good feel for the offensive line for the Eagles. So maybe this maybe this isn't a great one. But both Chris Jones and Hassan Redick, two sacks each, two plus sacks each.
Starting point is 01:10:30 It's 30 to 1. He didn't even have a sack in his career in the playoffs to like to the last game. Yeah. I struggle with that one. Hertz and Mahomes are so good at avoiding sacks. And the downs on which Hertz get sacks are typically blitz downs. And you're not going to see a defensive tackle. I'll think of the blitz on a, a sack on a blitz down.
Starting point is 01:10:47 You're going to see either the blitz or. or the edge when the quarterback tries to escape. I just don't think Chris Jones is likely to get to two. Fair enough. He had two last week, zero. Both these guys are just sons of guns to tackle. Like, you could be pressing like crazy and just you're not going to get in the quarterback.
Starting point is 01:11:00 Yeah, the quarterback variable is a very good point. Yeah. Okay. Any other props? I just like the one I wanted to throw out, which is literally just a gut thing. It has no like, I don't know if there's any reality here, but Jerich McKinnon over 22 and a half receiving yards. I just feel like, where is it?
Starting point is 01:11:18 McKinnon gone. Why did they stop like giving him the football? The first prop I took this week was Jerich McHenon over 22 and a half receiving arts. Thank you. Is that your favorite prop of this week? I just want to do everyone's favorite prop. I don't know. For whatever reason, I just have a gut feeling that he's going to be like a big part of this game plan after basically doing nothing. At least with the football the last few weeks. Last few weeks, he's actually outsnapped Pacheco just barely. But he hasn't like been touching the football for whatever reason. If you narrow it down to the five games before Mahomes got hurt, he was averaging five catch. He was averaging five catch. just for 53 yards. Does McKinnon was? Yes. Yeah. So if you,
Starting point is 01:11:52 really cool stat, from the guys at 4-4-4 football who are awesome, Connor Allen, Ryan Noonan, games in which Mekyll Hardman is playing. Jaredek-McKennon
Starting point is 01:12:01 averages 2.3 targets, 1.6 receptions, 13.2 yards. In the nine games in which McKin has been active for the Chiefs, and Mekle Hardman hasn't been. Five targets,
Starting point is 01:12:10 four receptions, 40 receiving yards. There you go. The Chiefs, when they need yak, they press the Mekle-Hardman button. When the Miko Hardman
Starting point is 01:12:17 button isn't available, they press the Jerich McKinnon button. And the Eagles are going to put a deep blanket on you. They're going to put an intermediate blanket on you and force you just check the ball down. McKinnon is going to have a volume game receiving. I'd be shocked to you. I love this.
Starting point is 01:12:27 Okay. So the best bets I think we discussed in this episode, Jerich McKinnon over 22 and a half yards. She's passing the first play. Jody 14 to 1 for a touchdown. And then if I may say so myself, maybe the greatest prop ever been given. Kelsey Brothers facing off against each other mentioned over one and a half times.
Starting point is 01:12:47 Also, don't over think it. Travis Kelsey overs. Yeah, and all the Travis Kelsey overs. Chiefs over 0.5 rushing touchdowns minus 125. And just as a reminder, if you're going to put, you know, 10 bucks on Jackson Mahomes over under TikToks, you could take two, five bucks, send it to the earthquake relief fund, five for the kids, five for the Jackson Mahomes over under TikTok.
Starting point is 01:13:12 There we go. Whatever you want to do. Yeah. So, and that is in our episode, in all series, that is in our episode description. so you can, you know, just take something throughout up. We'll tweet it out. It's also in the link for this episode description. Also, I just want to say shouts out to just all these betting websites and the weird bets that they put on there.
Starting point is 01:13:26 I found one today that was will Tom Cruise parachute into the stadium and hand deliver the game ball to the referees? No, it's minus 15,000. Right. Because there's the thing. He parachutes in, but then he drops the ball when he lands, Rob doesn't hit. And that's how you win to it. That's how you get it. It's a patty right there, yeah.
Starting point is 01:13:45 So. Dude, I know I mentioned this, this is two pods in a row, but the Avatar 2, the beginning, like where they're showing the video is IMAX, and it's just him doing the parachute, the bike off the cliff in Norway. That's him into the stadium. Yeah. That's the end of the video. It was the craziest thing I've ever seen.
Starting point is 01:14:04 Yeah. Have you seen all those Mission Impossible? I actually have missed the last. That video convinced me to watch the last three. Oh, they're great. Rogue Nation, Fallout. I watched the bad one. I don't like what just happened there where you just started naming them.
Starting point is 01:14:15 That worries me a lot. I know them as 2, 3, 4, 5. I didn't love the subtitles. It's funny. It's just named 5, 6, and 7. But yeah, they're good. They're great. I'm going to go through them.
Starting point is 01:14:26 Okay. Thank you, D.K., thank you, Sulek. Thank you, Craig. And thank you, honestly, again, thank you to everyone who actually go through and donate to the earthquake relief fund for the earthquake victims in Turkey and Syria. And that is in the episode description.
Starting point is 01:14:39 Thank you, Lorne. Lauren. Thank you, Burger King. You're not going to do Rihanna? He's like, fuck, Brianna. That's Spotify. Be taste actors, bun burger cheese, burger cheese, burger cheese, burger cheese, bacon, bacon, bacon.
Starting point is 01:14:57 It really slaps, actually. It does. He's great. The songbird. I've been called the songbird of my generation. Sounds like a combination of Fergie and Jesus. Craig, that was actually a great point by you asking where they got the actual guy who's saying this. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:15:14 Because he's like sort of an everyman singer. Yes. It's like the Bismarkey, just a friend where you're like, oh yeah, this is me. Yeah, he has an everyday kind of sound, which is great because Burger Kings for an everyday kind of person. You rule this day. You. You do. Thank you.
Starting point is 01:15:29 Have it your way. All right, goodbye, everyone.

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