The Ringer NFL Show - Finding the Ja’Marr Chase of 2022

Episode Date: July 12, 2022

The overwhelming majority of elite fantasy receivers come from real-life playoff teams, or teams that are at least in the playoff hunt. So, a good way to find a breakout WR is to try and figure out which team could make a surprise playoff run. Ja’Marr Chase was going in the sixth round of fantasy drafts last year, and after a surprising run by the Bengals he ended the year as a top-4 player at the position. We map out our playoff picture, and come back around to figure out—based on our playoff feelings—which players we think are a good fantasy value. Check out The Ringer’s Fantasy Football Draft Guide! Email us! [e-mail]. Hosts: Danny Heifetz, Danny Kelly, and Craig Horlbeck Producer: Craig Horlbeck Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What's up, everybody? Are you tuning in to the Challenge USA on CBS? Well, tune in to me, Tyson Apostle, as I break down each and every episode with my co-host, Amelia Weddemeier. I'm also a contestant on the show, which gives you all the insider scoop. Amelia, how stoked are you to do this? Tyson, I'm freaking excited. I cannot wait to sit my butt down every single week to watch the show, then come here and recap it with you on The Ringer Reality TV podcast. Welcome to the Ring of Fantasy Football Show. My name is Danny Hyphins and I am joined by Danny Kelly and Craig Coralbeck.

And today we are looking for this year's Jamar Chase, which is kind of disingenuous because he's a one-of-one player and you're probably not going to find literally. Clickbait. Good hook, though. Got me. Figuratively. You already spoiled it.

Yeah, usually do that later. No, no serious is. So Jamar Chase was going in like the sixth round last year. And he ended up being a top four receiver. Although that kind of underplays how good he was because he finished by, Cooper Cup, Devante, et cetera. But he had like 50 fantasy points in week 17 when you're in your championship. So if you had Jamar Chase, you probably won your league.

He was good. Yeah, it's good. It's good at football. You want to find that again. And I don't mean like 50 points in week 17. That's a little hard to find. But what you want is that receiver who's going in the 30s, the 40s, the 50s, maybe the 60s, who is going to end up with the top five, top 10 season because that's how you get your value.

And long story short, last 10 years you look, it's way easier to find a receiver. is going to do that in that range, then a running back. So that's why we are aiming at receivers in the middle rounds. But specifically, how do you find those dudes? It's hard. So I want to shout out Rich Rebar. Rich Rebar is at Sharp Football Analysis. He's one of the best fantasy analysts out there.

And Rich last month had a really great insight. So Rich did some research and to grossly, disgustingly oversimplify what Rich was saying. It's that over with, like, the great fantasy receivers come from good teams. just about mostly. Like 10 plus win teams. Yeah. Eight plus win teams. To look at the number.

So what Rich did is he looked at the last 30 NFL seasons. And he just looked at the top 12 fantasy receivers in each of the last 30 years. So it's the top 12 from 30 years. I think that's 360 players, if I can do math. And what he found was really simple. Three quarters of those guys in real life were on a team that won eight games. Their real life team was good. or at least, like, they're a playoff team

or in the playoff hunt, three quarters of them. And half of them were on a team whose real team won 10 games. Or more. Again, or more, yeah. So if you're talking about the top 12 receivers each year, nine of the top 12, their real-life team won eight games,

and half the top 12, the team won 10. I think that's pretty stunning. I don't know if you guys, like, I thought that was shocking. It is shocking. I don't know if it's, like, incredibly surprising because usually good teams score points. And when there's more points, that's better for fantasy.

I think the more surprising thing is like finding the team that's going to make the lead that you don't expect, which leads to our Jamar Chase conversation because the Bengals, no one really expected obviously to go where they did this year. And when they do exceed expectations, you find these Jamar Chases. So that's what we're going to try to do here. Exactly. So as Craig said, you can either try to find a team who has a win total that you think is off and they'll be better than the win total.

Or you can find a team that has a win total at eight, nine, or ten. or above, but doesn't have a receiver in this range of drafts. And so you can find one or the other that way. So that's like we're reverse engineering this. Yeah. So instead of just looking at all the receivers, we're going to look at the teams. And honestly, we're going to do, to find this, we're going to do my single favorite NFL exercise.

I always start and end my NFL prep every season with you look at the last year's playoffs and you're like, I have to pull out half the teams. Because every single year, like clockwork, half the teams that made the playoffs just don't make it back and it's really fun to go through and be like, well, who's going to make it who's not. So here's what we're going to do. We're going to go division by division and we're going through every team and we're going to put them into three buckets. Teams that were like really confident will make the playoffs. Teams that were really confident will not make the playoffs. And then the teams in the middle who basically are fighting for like that wild card, like the loose

of the playoff race, the teams that could be in it, but we're not really confident either way. So we're just going to go division by division. Does that work for you guys? Yeah. Let's do it. This is a great thing to do over the summer, by the way. It's fun. I'm enjoying this kind of thing. Yeah. So, without further ado, let's just get into it. So who's going to make the playoffs on the team level? Starting with the AFC East. The bills. Bill's obviously going to make Win the Division, right? You don't have to have a conversation

there. The Jets. Very probably. Jets are not making the playoffs, right? We don't buy. Although do we have to discuss this Zach Wilson thing briefly? The, is real? It's certainly fascinating. A lot to chew on there. I'm trying to say this in a way that Zach Wilson won't sue us. Can you be more explicit? Well, Not like sexually explicit, but just like be more specific about what you're talking about. Is the objective explanation that Zach Wilson's ex-girlfriend implied that they broke up because Zach Wilson was sleeping with Zach Wilson's mom's best friend? Correct.

Did she imply that or did she say it? She stated it plainly. She just said it. Yeah, you're right. Okay. She said that Zach Wilson was sleeping with his mom's best friend. Correct. So they broke up.

Got that dog in them. But Zach Wilson's ex-girlfriend is now dating Zach Wilson's best friend from BYU, who's now a receiver on the commanders. Dex Milne or Milne. Does this mean that Jets could make the playoffs this year if Zach Wilson is maturing into year two? He's maturing rapidly, apparently. Yeah. Do you get, okay. Do you guys actually think back to last year, I don't actually remember.

Did anyone think that the Bengals were going to be not only a playoff team, but like a potential Super Bowl team? I can't for life of me remember what the impression was going into the season. Of Cincinnati? I mean, no. All we talked about us, how bad their line was. And we weren't talking about them,

certainly not as a Super Bowl team, but probably not as a playoff team. So like maybe the Jets, I don't know, like a massive, massive jump from Zach Wilson. I don't think Joe Burrow was doing what Zach Wilson has been accused of. No.

Joe Burrow had a lot of signal as a rookie that he was good. Like there was a lot of numbers, even though they were bad and like overall his numbers like just like the counting stats were not very good. There was a ton of signal within Burroughs like numbers. His deep accuracy, like just everything that you could like all the like little stats,

the deep deep dive stats like all pointed to like being pretty good like based on rookie seasons over the last 20 years. There's like none of that with Zach Wilson. Like Zach Wilson's numbers. Craig and I were talking about the Zach Wilson mom thing and you just went to a very serious analysis of whether he's like Joe Burrow. You're comparing Zach Wilson to Joe Burrow. player and we're like, is Zach Wilson

trying to be Joe Burrow off the field? Like in coolness. Does he want Joe Burroughs life? Like, can we say one thing? Like, a lot of people are like props to Zach Wilson. If Burrow did this, he'd be elected president like next week. That's so true though. People would be like, oh, that's cool. It's Zach Wilson

does it. We're like, oh. All right, so we had to address that. Okay. The memes are great though. The memes are flying around. The memes. If you actually, honestly, if there any good memes, just email us at Ringer fantasy football at gmail.com. Any memes you've seen on the sack Wilson stuff. I just want to make sure I don't miss any. Anyway, Bill's making the playoffs. Jets are not making the playoffs. Patriots and

Dolphins, is it fair to put them in the middle? Like the wildcard? I would not be surprised. So the Patriots did make the playoffs last year. The dolphins did not. I would not be surprised if both didn't, but I wouldn't rule them out of the race. Yeah. Yeah, they have the same odds to win the AFC East and I think that's fair to put them in the middle. So they're in the middle bucket. Okay, AFC North. This one's tough. Ravens, Bengals, Brown Steelers. I think the Ravens are going to win the division and they are actually favored.

They're basically tied with the Bengals. The Ravens are the slight favorites. I think the Ravens are going to win the division this year, but I think this is one of the tougher ones to figure out. I think that's crazy. I think the Bengals are getting zero respect. They went to the Super Bowl last year, and you're like, what?

Respect. It's very tough to make. Nothing changed. They got better, and now they're not the favorite in their division. Their offensive line is like the big thing, and it got way better. Everybody gets better in the offseason except the Cowboys who just cut their best player. Not everybody gets better in the off season.

The Packers didn't get better. Plenty of teams didn't get better. I find fair. Well, I guess the way I look at it is this. The Bengals had two things going for them last. And again, all the caveats in the world, like Joe Burrow is amazing and will stay amazing. Jamar Chase is amazing. Like, they're very hungry players.

Like, I'm not saying that the usual Super Bowl hangover arguments, I'm not arguing. I'm saying that they also did have to get lucky to get to the Super Bowl. even the Raiders game in the playoffs, the Bengals almost didn't do it. Joe Borough was the most sack quarterback in playoff history, and he probably will keep that record forever because they gave up so many sacks. So here's all I'm saying with the Bengals.

They had this, I believe, the second easiest schedule in the NFL last year by Warren Sharps scheduling, and they also were like the healthiest team, and they won 10 games. Meanwhile, the Ravens were the least healthy team in the NFL and lost all three of the running backs before the season began, and they still won eight games.

Okay, here's my name. next question. What have the Ravens ever done in the playoffs when healthy? Well, that's the suddenly whether you believe in Lamar or not. Well, this isn't the discussion, though, is it? It's who's going to make the playoffs? Not who's, what are they going to do in the playoffs? Who's going to win the division? And usually the team that wins the division is the better team and usually goes further in the playoffs. So my point is, is that yes, you could say the Ravens are going to get the running backs back and they're going to be healthy again. And I'm like, great, what have they done when they're

healthy? The Bengals went healthy, went to the Super Bowl. I know. I agree. I'm just saying, but that was also the top end of what they're capable of. Like, I just think that the, I just think the Ravens are going to win the division? So that's the thing is, are we able to confidently put any of these in? Are they all in the middle here? I think you got to put the Ravens and the Bengals in the playoffs. I, yeah, I, I, I don't say, or less you got to feel good about both of them going to the playoffs.

The Browns at plus 280 to win the division is insane to me. The Browns, can we, can we take the Browns as a not making it period? Like, we don't think Deshawn's going to play. Like, let's just put the Browns out of the playoffs. I don't know why they're plus 280. And then the Steelers, you know, probably not. Could I see the Steelers like winning seven or eight games?

Yeah. So the whole division's just in the middle or he's putting the Ravens in? I think the Ravens win. If the Browns start Jacoby Verset, it's not happening. All right, how about this? D.K., you be the tiebreaker.

I think the Ravens win. Craig thinks the Bengals are in. You be the tiebreaker. One we're going to put in and the other we're just going to put in the middle. Okay, I'm going to put, I'm going to put the Bengals winning the division and then I'm going to put the Ravens

being the wild card. But they could, I mean, yeah. I just think it, like, we got to build in a little bit of respect to the Bengals, man. Like, they're not, like Craig said, they didn't get worse. They got better in the off season.

So, um, the Ravens are getting better because they're getting their players. I mean, I like the Ravens too. I really like the Ravens too. I'm not like hating on the Ravens, but. We don't get bogged down. AFC South. When I was going through this exercise,

the first team I pulled out of the playoffs was the Titans. Titans were the one seat last year. I think the Colts are winning this division. And they're also actually, favorites by a lot to do it. implied odds are actually 55% the cults win the division. Do you guys have any issues with that?

No, none. All right, so we're going to put the cults in. Get ready for the Titans to be eight and two to start the season now. Titans fans are screaming at us, but I'm like, you know what, man, getting me at agey, but I get the Titans fans are going to have to scream

in a lot of people because I feel like this is pretty much the consensus by now. Yeah, it's fine. Okay, so the Jaggores and the Texans we're not going to entertain, right? They're out of the playoffs. We're not, no.

So the Titans will put in the race, right? for the AFC? Yeah. Yeah. Okay. And then AFC West, this one's very difficult. We're willing to put the Chiefs in, right?

Yes. At least there's a wild card. I would argue, I want the Chargers in. I agree. And we're not eliminating any use from the playoff race, but I think the Chargers are making the playoffs.

I agree. I'm willing to say that. I would bet them to win the division. I mean, it's the Chargers, but yes, I agree. I think this is the year like Herbert I know look everyone's gonna say

like oh seven years of Chargers hype the Justin Herbert years are not the same as the Philip Rivers year like they're not It's a new era And like again they would have made the playoffs last year If they could stop the run The Chargers defense got way Like they added Khalil Mack

It's kind of an underrated story somehow I know that how is how are we not talking about that They had a Julio Mac They had a J.C. Jackson at Corner Like they're stacking up And low key they also got Sebastian Joseph Day who was like one of the key offensive defensive lineman the Rams had other than Aaron Donald like Joseph anyway we don't have to

get in all that but I think that the Chargers I am so confident will the the Broncos and the Raiders are really interesting I we're both wild cards taking them out of it yeah the reason because so many people I think are probably listening to wondering why the Broncos with Russell Wilson are not in I think the Broncos are pretty top heavy man it's like because at first you're like Russ and Judy and Cortland Sutton, but like, well, the Broncos have a great secondary. I don't know. Like, their defense of line probably one of the weaker ones in the division. And then you've also got Randy Gregory they signed as like the shoulder injury and he's not playing.

And I don't know. I just think the Broncos are of all the teams are the ones where I wouldn't be surprised if a few injuries kind of derail them. I think my opinion of the Broncos is like you just have to do more projecting with the Broncos than you do with the other teams in this division. Because we don't exactly know what Russell Wilson's going to. look like in this offense. And like you were saying, there's some guys on the defensive line that I think are going to have to make a jump if they're going to be an elite defense.

So, you know, there are some, I guess, just more variables there that we're not really sure of. That's why in this stacked-ass division, that's why you'd probably not have them as a favorite. The tough part about the AFC man is just the AFC North and the AFC West might be the two best divisions in football. It's like not everybody's getting in, you know? So that's what makes it tough for like the Patriots. or, you know, the Titans in particular,

because, like, these other divisions are just going to produce a lot of good teams. But at the same time, they could just beat up on each other and let other teams sneak in. So this is going to be fascinating in the AFC. AFC, what we've decided here, teams that are in, bills are winning the AFC East, Bengals are going to win the AFC North, Colts are going to win the AFC South, Chiefs are going to win the AFC West. We're pretty confident Chargers get a wildcard. I actually agree with Craig.

I think the Chargers actually will win, and the Chiefs might get a wildcard. Either way, we're probably. putting those teams in. And because there's three wild cards now, so just a reminder, there's seven teams in each conference, 14 playoff teams, three wild cards.

And we're giving one of the wild cards with the Chargers, essentially. We're saying that, I can count math, two, four, six. We're really saying seven teams are fighting for two spots. And those teams are the Patriots and the Dolphins,

the Ravens and the Steelers, the Browns, if you want to count them, the Titans, the Broncos, and the Raiders. Jesus. And so to all the fans right now who are mad that they didn't make it, just remember, five of those teams,

are not going to make the playoffs. Like the Patriots might not, the Titans, the Broncos, the Raiders. Like, I understand, I'm sorry. People probably like, well, the Raiders didn't even get mentioned the NFC West. A lot of good teams won't make the playoffs in the NFC. So that's the picture. NFC. On the other hand.

Yeah, on the other hand. There are no good teams in the NFC in the other hand. NFC East, we're going to put the Cowboys in the playoffs, right? In the NFC East? Yeah. I mean, I don't even feel strongly about that, but yeah, sure. Well, you know what I've described, you know what the NFC East is this year? You know that's saying that you don't have to be faster than the bear, just faster than your

strongest friend? It's just like that's the East every season. If the Cowboys were in the AFC West, would they be the fifth best team? I was literally just thinking that, Craig. I think that, yeah, they probably would. The Cowboys, are the Cowboys better than the Raiders? I think they're probably around each other in terms of quality, when you think. The difference is I feel like Josh McDaniels would be such a better coach than Mike McCarthy.

Totally. I still can't get over. all the, like, Cowboys, I think the Cowboys have a solid roster even despite they just cut Marry Cooper and Lell Collins. The thing I can't get over about the Mike McCarthy stuff is he doesn't call the plays on offense and they had 14 penalties and a playoff game after leading the league and penalties during the regular season. And he's bad at clock management. I'm like, dude, you don't call plays. Like, what are you good at? I'll never forget the DAC Prescott scramble. That's like when Andy Reed gets made fun of for the timeouts,

Andy Reid's calling plays. He has to come up with a new play every 12 seconds. I haven't thought about that a long time. The scramble. With how many seconds left? It was 19 seconds. And then was it the next day or this? No time. But the next game or was it,

was the Chiefs bills the next day when the Chiefs then scored the touchdown in 14 seconds from 90 yards away? 13 seconds, I got a field goal. 13 seconds they got the field goal. But the Cowboys couldn't need it in 70. Anyway. I think Dak Prescott's though

the best quarterback in the nation by a lot. And that makes it. Yeah. Cowboys are there. Eagles will put as the middling team, right, in the middle. Yeah, I think, like, no one's going to be surprised with the Eagles win this division, I don't think. Washington is also in the hunt. We're not ruling them out. Sure, yeah. Yeah. Man, the Giants are we really, I'm not objective. What do you guys think? I'm willing to put the giants in the mix if Washington's in the mix. Yeah, I feel the way. So, High Fitz. High Fitz, you're the NFC East expert. Like, hasn't this, like,

division been won by like a different team like every year in the last like 25 years. Yeah, there's no continuity. Yeah, it's a, I mean, if there were a couple that have back to back, it's like very rare. It's like this division is always the toss up. The argument is that the Giants have the easiest schedule in football this year and the Eagles also have like one of the three easy schedules in football this year. And so the Eagles just getting A.J. Brown and just having a way easier schedule and a pretty surprisingly like deep roster.

I think the Eagles could win it. but the Giants, it would require a lot. And put them in the mix, but they're the worst team to be nice. All right, NFC North, we're going to put the Packers in, right? Packers are in the playoffs? Yes. Can we take the Bears out of the – although – I was going to say, if I wanted to get a lot of value, if I'm value hunting,

I'm taking Minnesota to win the division. Oh, man. So the Vikings – Yeah, I still think the Packers are clearly the best team. They have a really good defense, too. The Vikings are three to one to win the division. vision. It's crazy because the Packers are the first team to win 13 games in a row, three years, three years in a row. It seems insane.

Back to the MVP. Yeah. All right. So we're going to give the Packers the playoff spot. We're going to put the Vikings and the Lions in the hunt. And then the Lions out of it. All right. I think the lions go in the hunt. The Bears are not making the wild car. Well, I think that's the weird thing with the NFC. It's like these teams are so bad that it's like, it's easier to imagine the Lions wouldn't be in the hunt in the ASC. Yeah, we have like the Patriots and Russell Wilson in the hunt in the AFC. AFC and here we're putting the lions and the giants. But it's true.

When we go through the numbers at the end for the NFC, you're going to see what I mean. NFC South, are we going to put the bucks in? Yes. Yeah. We'll take the Falcons and the Panthers are just out, right? Yep. We're not putting them in. Yeah.

Okay. And then the Saints I'm going to put in the hunt. Yep. Yeah. Jay in this season. Okay. NFC West. Rams.

Okay. Also, just betting wise, this is crazy to me. The Rams are plus 1 and 25 to win the division. What am I missing here? doesn't every year the Super Bowl winner, unless there's been a big change, just come out and just start like 10 and 1, like every year?

Also, like, I would argue every single team got worse in this division other than the Rams. The Niners got a rookie quarterback, pretty much a rookie quarterback. The Cardinals are imploding and the Seahawks lost Russell Wilson. So the implied odds for the NFC West

or the Rams are plus 125. So again, that means if you put down a dollar, you would win back $1.25 in profit, which implied means the Vegas thinks they have a 44% chance of winning. For perspective, the Colts have an implied chance of 54%. I'm like, I understand that NFC West is a good division, but like the Niners are going to Trey Lance, this completely unknown commodity, and the Rams just, I don't understand.

Doesn't this feel like the best bet on the whole of the all 32 teams to you guys? Yeah. For the Rams to win the West? The Rams to win the division is plus money. That's crazy. They're saying it's under 50% chance. They're saying it's more likely that one of the other three teams wins than the Rams. like it's it's rams for the field for the nancy west that's crazy to me i agree the colts are minus

115 and the rams are plus 125 maybe i'm wrong maybe it's just implying i don't know i just think there's a good amount of parity i think in this division it's just the seahawks fan okay anyway we're going to put the seahawks i'm not saying the seahawks i'm just saying the 49ers and cardinals are both getting the seahks out we're putting the 49ers and i feel like the cardinals are going to be pretty bad they're in the mix though i think they're in the mix we'll put them in the mix okay So to recap the NFC right there, we got the Cowboys winning the East, the Packers winning the North,

the Bucks winning the South, the Rams winning the West. We're not really confident enough in any of these other wildcard teams to put them in. And then the teams we have just out are the Bears, the Falcons, the Panthers, the Seahawks are just out.

So I love doing that. I think it's really fun. This is going to be, man, the more I look at the NFC, I'm like, there's going to be some funny teams in the playoffs this year. That's the thing.

That's the thing. So in the AFC, we read that list of like the teams going, realistically, the AFC had like seven really good teams going for two spots. The NFC, three of these teams will make the playoffs. Eagles, Washington, giants, Vikings, lions, saints, 49ers Cardinals. That's eight teams. Three of those eight are going to make the playoffs. And I just feel like the obvious, I think the Saints are the one that,

jump leaps out at me but then after i mean we can talk about which one of these guys but i i the quality of the nfc i know that we're going to be talking about this all year but it is so apparent how much work like every level of it the best teams of the nFC are not as good as the best of the nFC the middle isn't as good and then even the worst teams are just so much worse than the worst teams the fs it is bizarre how did this happen so quickly it feels like it's just all the quarterback movement it's the quarterbacks all went to the a fcc right it feels like all the a fc teams Except for Brady. And it's impossible to hit on quarterback in the draft,

and the AFC hit on Burrow and Herbert in the same year. Exactly. Exactly that. Okay. So with all that said, just to recap here what we're doing, since so many of the top 12 receivers every year are on teams that won at least eight games and so many are on teams that won 10, now we have a pretty good idea.

And so we're either going to be looking for teams that are probably going to win eight or 10 games that don't have receivers going at the top end or number one option on a team that we think could be much better than where we're projecting them, right? So you guys want to look at some of these teams, you want to start with like the confident teams we're looking at and anyone that could emerge

or the middle? Yeah, start with confident and then we'll work away into the middle. The middle is probably more meaty in terms of like the potential steals or value, but like there's, I think there's still a couple guys we're just mentioning

in the confident playoff teams. So we're going to look, so these, Like the teams that were very confident making the playoffs. We're looking for top 12 guys, but like out of like, again, the Jamar Chase is the guys going 30s, 40s, 50s, 60s. So the bills are out here. They have Stefan Diggs, but he's already priced at that point. Yeah.

And then it's basically could Gabriel Davis join it. That's tough. So we get the bills, the Bengals, but Jamar Chase is already there. Yep. We have the Chiefs where they have Kelsey. They have Kelsey, but is that kind of mess with the receiver thing? Because they have Kelsey. I still, I still think there's a chance that, I mean, someone's going to have to replace,

I mean, it's probably going to end up being a combination of like three guys that replaces Tyree Kill's, you know, volume. But like, the Chiefs historically have been very top heavy in terms of like where their target rate goes. Like, it's all to Tyree Kill and Travis Kelsey over the last few years and then none of the other guys are worthwhile. If that happens again, obviously we don't know if that's going to happen again. But like, is a guy like Juju Smith-Schuster, the guy to target? is he have the potential to, you know, get 120 targets or whatever it is. And vastly, vastly outplay.

Right now, I was looking on underdog their ADP. This is best ball during the offseason. But he's the wide receiver 27, 55th overall. So right in that fourth, fifth, sixth round range probably when we're talking the beginning of the season. And I mean, he's done it before. He's done it before in his career, which is, you know, obviously he's been kind of rough over the last few years. to me, he's the guy that kind of stands out there. What do you guys think of the Chiefs? My gut is that Travis Kelsey kind of spoils this because he's not listed as receiver, but spiritually.

You're basically banking on it being like what you said the year with Antonio Brown and Juju were both top five or when Mike Evans and Chris Godd were both top five. But that's a lot to expect, I think, from these dudes on one-year deal. Yeah. I don't really expect it, but it's also like I really don't expect it from Valde Scalienle or Miko Hardman. If anybody, like the weird out of nowhere player could be like Sky Moore. Yeah, he certainly has like the

physical profile of potentially replacing Tyree Kill the best, the most. He's already screwed up my bingo card though because he has a hamstring injury. And like when the rookies get the soft tissue injuries in like July or June, I don't love that. I don't think there's anybody here I feel super confident about.

But I think it's juju if you need to pick. Although he's not cheap right now. But going through this list, the next team I think is really interesting because it's the cults. And we're all on the same page. Again, they have a terrible division, Dormat division where they can, I mean, the Titans are formidable. They're very well coach. But then you got the Jags and the Texans. Michael Pittman is so head and shoulders above all the other players on this roster as a receiver that if there's any guy that you're like, who's the obvious candidate among these good teams?

It kind of feels like Michael Pittman's the guy, right, D.K.? Yes, absolutely. however, he's already priced like that. Like, he's not a sleeper. Right now I'm looking at again, underdog ADP. He is 30th overall. But it's not really who's a sleeper.

It's who's going to join the elites. And I think this is the most quintessential example of what this episode's purpose is today. I think it's Pittman. I think he's like the number one choice of like he is the clearly defined number one receiver on a team that we think is going to win the division. And if that is the case,

they have a brand new quarterback, a four member VP. like the other receivers on this team are Alex Pierce and Paris Campbell like Alex. Alec Campbell excuse me, if this team is going to lay know Alex Pierce. Alec Pierce. The point is he doesn't know the name.

The point is that these, yeah, there's nothing going on. In Pittman at 88 catches last year he had over 1,000 yards. It's got to, Pitman I think, is my top choice to join a top 12. Like the top, like, I think if you're, you have to say like he has the most opportunity

to join like the top five at receiver because I just think he's already priced really high. And so, like, this isn't a Jamar Chase situation where he's in the 60s or whatever. But I agree. Like, he has an amazing opportunity as the number one with a good quarterback, finally, for the Colts. And so I don't disagree with you. I just think he's already kind of being priced like the potential breakout that he might be. Yeah, I think you're both right.

But Pittman's opportunity is clear. The other thing I think is crucial to understand about the Colts last year. is I'm not wavering on Jonathan Taylor at number one, but I think that it's not as clear cut as people think, in large part, because Jonathan Taylor got such an absurd number of goal line carries last year. I mean, I'm talking like 25 plus. And basically, I think JJ Zacharisen mentioned this,

that every, like seven or eight players have gotten 25 goal line carries in the last decade, and literally no one's ever repeated it. And I'm not just talking about regression. The reason Jonathan Taylor got so many goal line carries was midway through the season, Frank Reich, the Colts head coach, just gave up on Wentz.

They were like, this guy is just not doing, he melted down, and they're like, we don't trust him anymore. And they built their entire offense around Jonathan Taylor, including not trusting Carson Wentz at the goal line. They were so afraid of Wentz

screwing up at the goal line, they just gave all the balls to Taylor. Yeah. That's just not going to happen with Matt Ryan. And so I just think it's not that Jonathan Taylor's not good. It's just that when you have an actual quarterback, you trust, they're going to throw more.

And I think that leads right to Michael Pittman just having this each year. It's a good point. In the first five games of Wentz's year with the Colts, he had over 30 attempts in each of the first five games. The last five games of the season, he didn't even go over 30 once. Yeah.

It's just how the season went and they just gave up on them. And that context is always important. So we like Michael Pittman. The next one's super interesting. The Chargers. We love the Chargers. The Chargers,

I think the Chargers a prime for an incredible season. They're my favorite team in the league. That's not the Steelers. If I could somehow not be tied to the Steelers, I would pick the Chargers. So here's the thing. There's this meta question then of like,

do you want Keenan Allen or Mike Williams? Because Keenan Allen is probably safer and catches more balls. But we saw Mike Williams for the five weeks where he was the number one receiving fantasy. But then he went back to being Mike Williams and was just like really heartbreaking and disappointing. But is it staring us in his face

like we talked about the other day? Mike Ryan is just going to be great. Well, I mean, once again with pricing, Mike Williams was the number 10 wide receiver in fantasy last year. Yeah. So right now they're the wide receiver 12 and 13 in 80P. So they're going high. Like this isn't. Mike Williams is being drafted in the, on average, if you look at fantasy pros, he's being drafted in the 50s.

We have fantasy football.org the ringer.com. We have them at 46. The answer is Mike Williams, right? If you expect, the chargers are, got really. weird basically in the middle of the season. They stopped letting Herbert like throw the ball deep and it completely messed up Mike Williams' like season.

And if... God damn cover two. Yeah. And then they kind of got back to it at the end of the season. But Herbert's like yards per attempt went way down in the middle of the season. And if you believe that, you know, they can get, they can write the ship a little bit.

Williams is probably another behind Pittman likeliest candidate to actually join like a top seven group. Yeah. There's so many ghosts yelling at us right now that Mike Williams cannot be trusted. It ain't me. Trust that name with your life.

All right. The other teams were confident to make the playoffs. The Cowboys, go to the NFC now. Cowboys, but Cidie Lambs already priced as if he's going to be great. So it doesn't really count. The Packers are really interesting.

Oh, Siri's talking to me. Oh, the cowboys. She thought I had some of the Cowboys. She's Australian. Yeah, I do. Well, because, oh, yeah, because the Australian. Why did Siri start talking to you there? What prompted that?

She gave me the Cowboys play the Broncos. She gave me the preseason schedule. Oh, she's doing it again. She's Australian because of all the Australian list. Not now. Not now. Is your girlfriend jealous that you set your Siri to have an Australian accent? I don't think she cares.

She's not intimidated to play Siri. Okay. Trouble in Paradise? Have you seen the movie Her? Maybe you guys should watch that. I'm in love with Siri? I'm just saying. Yeah, just throwing it out there.

Why would you change the voice if you don't care? I don't get it. What's your voice like? Just whatever the iPhone gave me, whatever Siri was programmed with. That's the voice. We did this last year. I changed my Siri to Australian when we got all the Australian emails. Yeah, well, you didn't have a girlfriend last year now, did you?

Wow, I did. Well, I'll check the tape on that. I'll check the numbers. Wow. Thank God she, she, like, doesn't listen to this podcast. And I'm fine. there we go. Okay, Green Bay. Yeah, Green Bay.

Packers are also one that kind of screams on this list. Because again, what we're doing here, like, a lot of these receivers come from good teams. And the Packers just don't have anybody. I mean, obviously lost Devante Adams. But I don't know if everyone was like Robert Tunyon, like tight end. Like he is recovering from injury. He doesn't even know if he's going to be healthy to begin the year. So they just got like Alan Lazard, Sammy freaking Watkins.

I mean, this team, like there's no one here. But I don't know if Alan Lazard, do you think Alan Lazzard has like the skill set to be the main receiver? Like who is catching passes in Green Bay? He doesn't feel to me like he's a high volume fantasy superstar. And I know that's not a bold statement whatsoever. But it just doesn't feel like realistic to me. I think he is going to be. So weird if Alan Lazzard was?

There's a world in which he is because like, again, it's who else is going to be catching passes? and this is Aaron Rogers, he's the two-time MVP, you know, defending MVP. He's obviously very good, and he has historically gone with guys he trusts, and he trusts. And he trusts Lazzard. He's talking Luzard up already. Zanzard has tons of experience in this system. He doesn't have the Sammy Watkins' history of just totally disappearing. I think Watkins is clearly, you know, skill set-wise, like, talent, the more talented, the most talented. I don't think Lizarre has, like, the explosion and the speed and all that.

But, yeah, I don't know. tough. It's like I almost rather take a just take a flyer on one of the much, much further down the line guys like Romeo of Dubs or Christian Watson, the rookie Christian Watson and just see it like see if one of those guys pans out then like

I don't know. I just don't know if I can believe the Lazard hype. I think we all none of us want it to be Lazard. I think it's for some reason that we feel bored by it. I think we want it to be Christian Watson or we want it to be Sammy Watkins. But I think it probably is going to be Alan Lazard. If you look at

Lizard's like numbers with Rogers. He's actually a pretty strong red zone threat. He like finished the season really strong last year. He was like a top 15 guy in the last five weeks of the season. To me, he's the easy choice to replace Devonte Adams's red zone production because Alan Lazard is big. He has size.

The chemistry matters in the red zone more than anywhere else, I think. So like, it's got to be Lazard. It's a boring pick and no one's going to ooh and awe on draft day, but I think it's Lazard. I actually kind of agree. I don't, yeah, and like I don't really, I don't have a strong opinion on it.

And I just don't like, I have a hard time believing Lazard is going to be like a top 12 receiver. The part I agree most is that we don't want it to be Lazard. No. But the reality is the Packers always have this kind of, it's like the Alabama running backs. It's like there's always this line of succession in Green Bay. It went from like Donald Driver. I might get the order wrong, but like went from like Donald Driver, did the overlap from Farf to Rogers. And then, I mean, he had James Jones.

Great Jennings. Yeah, sorry, it was Donald Driver to Greg Jennings to Jordy Nelson to Devonte. And now it's like Lazard. but the reality is, I don't know if any of those guys were obvious guys to emerge until they did. Like, Devante Adams' first two years in the league, I think people thought he was going to be out of the NFL. I will never forget every fantasy analyst

in the beginning of Devante Adams' career after his first two seasons hated him. They thought he was so bad. The Green Bay fans hated him. They wanted him to get cut. Yeah. Yeah. So I keep that in mind with Lazard,

and let's do the thing we always, I'm going to make a rule from now. It's a quick age check. Oh, he's 26 is. Lizard, Samarkins is 29. Again, he's not Devante Adams, but I mean, Lazard, I guess let me reverse it.

How many good games in a row would Alan Lazard need for you guys, for you guys to realize, oh shit, it was Alan Lazard. It's just the number one receiver in Green Bay. Five. Five? I feel like it's two. I need two, and then I'll be like, I'm an idiot. Can I just say, Devante Adams' first season with over a thousand yards came when he

was 26? Oh, shit. Are you serious? Yeah. Oh, shit. Albeit he had he had a lot of touchdowns leading up to that like he had 997 when he was 24 Oh so you're cheating okay okay but you know can I throw out well here's a curveball What if the Packers sign Will Fuller or Julio Jones before the season or O'Dell?

I'm not they already have shitty walk in you can't have like week 10 probably Odell's not moving to Green Bay you also can't have true more than one real like much more famous older broken down receiver Like if you have Sammy Watkins, you can't also have Julio Jones. Like how many, you know what I mean? I'd love it if they had Julio, Julio, Will Fuller and Sammy Watkins is just like

three versions of the Spider-Man meme. They're all just like, we're super unreliable. Can we sign them all? Sign them all. Because only one will be healthy each week, but that kind of works. There you go. Well, Bill had the rule if you can't have two crazy guys on a team because they'll hang out together.

And it's like it's kind of the same, you know, with the receivers you can't, you can't have too. They'll all lubricate their muscles together. Yeah. They're just in the, they're in the cold tub together. Talking about God does what? Hot tub club. Hot tub club.

All right. So, Luzard, I'm running down Lazzard on this list. I like Lazzard and Pittman. Two boring guys. You guys are fucking talking me into it and I hate you for it. You know why? It's not going to work. Al-Lissard's just Mike Davis.

We need to have an episode called the most boring fantasy lineup that will make the playoffs. That will absolutely make the playoffs. We do. This is like, Robert Maze does the most, like, fun fantasy team every year. I want to do the opposite. The most boring fucking fantasy team you can put together. No one will make a Pee when you draft each one of these players, but your team will be 10 and 7.

Yeah. I was going to say, let's do it now, but no, you're right. Let's make that a whole episode. This is an episode. Let's do it. Are we keeping this in this episode? I'm already excited about this. This is what you call in the biz, a tease.

And we're going to get it. Yeah, we're going to get them. I love that. Yeah, you're right. Okay. Bucks. Okay, Buccaneers, they have Mike Evans. So I think that kind of destroys this exercise for them.

So. Yeah, but what about Gage? Yeah, well, Russell Gage is, I think, going to be good, but probably more in the beginning of the season. And then, like, when Chris Godwin comes back, I think, I don't think Russell Gage has any chance to be, like, a top 10 overall receiver when Chris Godwin returns. I think the Russell Gage has the Godwin role and would still be useful, but, like, startable for your lineup. But I don't think it's realistic for Russell Gage to be like a top five, top 10 guy all year when Godwin only did that once himself. He is a LSU alum. Russell Gage.

Jamar Chase parallel there. Justin Jefferson. He could be him. Should we like enroll in LSU summer classes and then try to like see if we could get the LSU? I try out for the bucks and I take one LSU class, yeah. Okay, we're going to move on. Rams, they have Cooper Cups.

So that kind of, I mean, maybe Alan Robinson, but I don't think that. No, they're not going to both. The offense spreads the ball out too much. I mean, Cup and Woods. Yeah, they're both. Like Woods was borderline. wide receiver won before he got hurt.

Yeah, the Cinderella of the fantasy community, Robert Woods, was like a borderline fringe top 12 wide receiver every year. I think it's easier to project the number one receiver like the Jarmar Chase. Jermar Chase last year, Stefan takes the year before that, Cooper Cup last year. I think it's easier to project the number one receiver and a team to go bananas than a team where one guy's already going bananas to have a second guy join him unless they're throwing a ton of passes.

Yeah, I don't disagree with that. I just don't want to leave him off this list. All right, we'll include him, but I'm giving an asterisk. It's not quite, I think it's tough to be like the second guy will also do good, because then you kind of have to lop off a lot of yardage off Cooper Cup necessarily. I mean, he had 2,000, so. Well, yeah, but then, all right, but are we committing to Justin Jefferson being our top receiver? Because I think we should.

I think we should, too. I'm big on the Vikings. So those are the teams that we're really confident that we're pulling guys out. So the teams that were like confident to make the playoffs. Michael Pittman, Mike Williams, Alan Lazzard, Alan Robinson. I don't adore us, but those guys are pretty interesting. You're into Alan Lazzard, but not Alan Robinson.

Alan Robinson, I think, he had two top 12 finishes before last year. Last year he fell off of map. You realize that Alan Robinson is younger than Cooper Cup and is like one of the best talents in the NFL. I forgot he's younger than Cooper Cup. That's weird. Cooper Cup is Sammy Watkins' age. Isn't that the weirdest thing of them all?

That's very weird. You might be older, actually. How old? Is Cooper Cup 29 or 30? He's 29, I think. Yeah. June 15th, 93. When was Sammy Watkins born?

Sammy was born June 14th, 1990. Oh my God. You said, damn age. Sammy Watkins is one day older. That's crazy. Oh, my God. Okay, that was like the Austin thing from Friday. Yeah, the Austin versus L.A.

One mile off. Equidistant. Yeah. This is the part of the exercise, I think, is really fun. or not fun, but the fun was before when we're talking about Zach Wilson's mom. This is the part that's like informative. The team's in the middle. And again, I think it's pretty crazy that two, really two of these teams are going to make the playoffs in the AFC.

It's Patriots, Dolphins, Bengals, Steelers, Browns, Titans, Broncos, Raiders. Only two of those are going to make it if we're putting the charges in it. And then I know, it's loaded. And then the flip side, the NFC, it's like, three of these teams are going to make the playoffs. and it's the Eagles, Washington, Vikings, Lions, Saints, 49th, Seahawks. I think you put Giants in there and then take the Seahs out. Oh, yeah, I took them out of the, I protect my own soul. So out of these teams that jump out of you guys, looking at these, and again, we don't have to go into like, well, the Raiders of Devante Adams.

We don't have, the Raiders aren't really part of this. You look at these teams, is their receiver that jumps out at you? that could make a huge leap. I think there's two to me that really stand out. We're just a team you think could be better than you think on this list. And then we look at the receivers from there. So, Hyvitz, I'll go with what you were saying,

alluding to earlier, and the Ravens being really good. I think Rashad Bateman is the guy that kind of stands out on this group in this list. Former first round pick, flashed as a rookie, looked really good at times, has that sort of,

of size, speed, route running combination. And crucially, he's a really good route runner. I think that will be something that can set him apart this year. And he's going to be, I think, the question number one receiver, certainly. He's going to have to split targets with Mark Andrews,

but the number one receiver after Marquis Brown has gone. So he's going as the wide receiver 26 right now in best ball at underdog. But to me, like, he's the guy, as I'm just looking through all these teams that stands out the most as like, in, you know, seven or eight months or whatever it is,

when the season's over, we're like talking about Rashad Bateman being a wide receiver one, and we're like, we should have seen this coming. I just have reservations about a team that throws as little as they do. Just that he'll have enough volume to even be in that conversation. He'd have to be so efficient. And that Mark Andrews is the real number one in that team. So I guess do you think that Rashad Bateman could be more of the number one

than Mark Andrews or that, in reality, it's the Mark Andrews at the top and then it's Rashad Bateman. I just think even if it is both, like they're going to be funneling so many of the passing game targets to those two guys particularly. Like there's just not anyone else really. And he, and Lamar Jackson

doesn't really pass to running backs. So there's not like a running back that's going to get like 100 targets either and kind of like siphon off volume. I mean, I'm just like, you know, the Seahawks have been very run heavy and past like, not run heavy, but like they don't run a ton of plays.

Their play volume, their past volume is low. They're slow. Yeah, they're slow and they don't pass they don't, like, or they just don't run a lot of plays. And they still, at times, obviously, I'm not comparing Lamar Jackson's deep passing prowess to Russell Wilson or whatever, but like they're so efficient offensively that these guys can come in. And you can have like two wide receiver ones, like D.K. Metcalfe and Tyler Locke, potentially.

So I still think there's a chance. The efficiency shines through and he's getting, you know, they're just funneling so much of the passing game through those two guys in particular. That's where, that's where like the lack of volume, the last. of past volume, it's going to maybe not matter as much as you think. But it is a valid point. Like, you know, it's definitely not going to be like the chiefs or the bills where they're just passing a ton and airing it out or whatever.

So, but this is why he's priced where he is, I think. Yeah, a couple of these, I mean, just to get away from like just pure receiver talk for a second, just team wise, I think the Vikings leap out to me as a team that surprisingly I just want to put in the playoffs. And I think that the Vikings going from like Mike Zimmer, like hard-ass defensive coach and like having more of an offense combined with like the NFC I mean the bears are so bad it just feels like the Vikings or the lions are so primed for one of them to get a wild card that the Viking like I'm not going to put Adam Thiel in as a

top-ton guy I know he missed a lot of time but I think that he has no one wants to admit it but it's a top three red zone connection like Kirk Cousins targets Adam Thielan in the red zone is as well as any it's it's it's two notches below what brady had the gruncowski and probably three notches but regardless is top three in the league i don't know i think that i'm feeling if he stays healthy the problem is he hasn't but he's on the wrong side of 30 but i mean who among us isn't these days but i think thelan is a great one i think thelan's a great one i wonder if that's more dalvin cook than anything they wait what what just that i think the viking is going to be good i think the viking's his offense is going to be surprisingly good this year

and no one's really talking about it. No, I agree with that. I think one guy to keep your eye on who I am in love with heading into this year is Cortland Sutton. Yeah. I know there's kind of a lot of mouth to feed in Denver, but listen,

like, Sutton was kind of set to explode, like his career, and then he tore his ACL in week one of 2020. So he missed that entire year after like a really strong 2019. Then last year, the team was a disaster. quarterback situation was a mess. They ran the ball a ton,

and he just didn't really get an opportunity to succeed. And now, I mean, he just signed $35 million guaranteed the Broncos paid him. He's going to be on the field more than any of the wide receiver than the Broncos for the Broncos. You have Tim Patrick. Jerry Judy looks like he's going to be in a slot. And I think if anyone is going to become the DK Metcalfe in the Broncos offense, it's Sutton. They have similar profiles. He's huge.

He's fast. He's the deep threat. Russell Wilson is best deep. and this team, even if they're a past balanced offense, I think Sutton easily has a chance to be a top 12R receiver this year. I'm in lockstep with you on that. I think here's where I'm going to throw out like a wild card. I think it would be funny if Tim Patrick emerged as like the best of all these receivers.

I've been wondering that too. Like Tim Patrick, I think could straight up outperform Jerry Judy the show. I love Jerry Judy. I just, I think Tim Patrick is good. I think he's following victim to the... They just gave him. three years 34 million. He's falling victim to the, his name is Tim Patrick.

When two wide receivers are on the field for Denver this year, I think there's a strong chance that it's Sutton and Patrick and not Judy. Right, right. So do that what you will. But I love Sutton this year. I think he is, he is the new D.K. Metcalfe for Russ. Yeah, and I said this on a previous pod like a couple weeks ago. Would it surprise you whatsoever if Corlin Sutton scores 10 plus touchdowns?

No. Like not even a little. It would not surprise me. So I'm with you on that one. The other team that leaps out at me here, just in terms of making the playoffs, it's a little crazy to say, but it's the Saints. And in theory, I think the Saints are not a popular team right now. And I mean, look, obviously, Sean Peyton retired as their head coach.

And they've made a bunch of, like, wildcat moves. But, like, their defense still projects to be pretty incredibly good. And the division's so bad, like the Falcons and the Panthers. I feel like the Saints are going to go four and O or three and one in that right there. They've also beaten Brady in the playoffs all four years. They're four and O, I believe, in the right. the season against Brady. And it's not crazy to say that the Saints could go five and one in the division.

And at that point, why couldn't the Saints be a 10-win team? As crazy as is to say, they're always selling out for this season. And suddenly, I start thinking about the receiving core, Michael Thomas has been hurt for two years now with this mysterious ankle injury that none of us understand how it's still being rehabbed. Jarvis Landry's signed there, but like I really don't know what Jarvis Landry has left. I genuinely don't know what he has left at this point in this career. and I keep wondering about Chris Olivae, the rookie out of house state.

Seriously, yeah. He might have been the most polished guy coming into the draft. DK, do you feel that way? Yeah, and he, I would say, yes. He was certainly the most polished as a route runner. I think there are concerns about, like, his play strength and things like that,

but if you get him a clean release off the line scrimmage, he's elite speed, and he's a really good, he catches the ball really good, really well, and he's a great route runner. So, like, he's the type of player, stylistically that could like hit the ground running and just be really good right away. And he falls into an offense where like honestly, if Michael Thomas isn't playing, he's the number

one. That's the thing. What I keep coming back to is, look, it's always a little straw man to be like, well, if this guy gets hurt and it's like, okay, well, you could say that for anything. However, since Michael Thomas has barely played football in the last two years and Jarvis Lanchry just always seems to be dealing with something, it doesn't seem crazy to think that Chris Olavé might just have to be like the superhero receiver on this team pretty early in this season. And that's the one guy I kind of look at and I'm like, he's going outside the top 100. I mean, forget 30s, 40s, 50, 60s. It's, you know, it's not like you're paying very much to acquire him. Yeah. And I know there's a lot of ifs and what I just said, but that's the other guy that I really wonder. It's like, you know,

he's not even quite the number one yet, but it's not very difficult to imagine that happening. Yeah, I mean, yeah, he's not, he doesn't have the same profile as Jamar Chase even remotely. Like, Chase was an all-timer in terms of, like, college prospects, but a lot of it has... We said that that was clickbait at the top to get people to click DK. It's a metaphor. Can I toss two names at you guys, and I want you to tell me which one grabs you, if any? Yeah. Two more receivers. Devante Parker and Robert Woods.

Yeah. For the Titans? Yeah. And the Devante for the Patriots? I wrote down Devante. I think both Devante and Jacobi Myers are kind of interesting because all we've been reading about is how much they limited Mac Jones in his rookie season, how much they held back, how great he looks right now.

You know, I don't know if that's all fluff. Have you seen him? Mac Jones, he's skinny. He looks like... Chisled. Yeah, like just chis. Just agreed. Strong jawline.

Double standard. When Zach Wilson got ripped, and now we know why he got wanted to get ripped, but once he got ripped, we were like, that's bad. And now Matt Jones is ripped and we're like, that's good. He's not ripped. He's spilted up. Mac Jones cut down. So he's pliability.

Mac Jones did the Luca Donchich. He thinned out. The jaw line got more pronounced. Stop drinking the sweet tea. Zach Wilson thickened up. The jawline went away because he bulked up. He's too full of creatine right now. He can't even throw up.

Too many creatine shakes. Yeah. He's too busy looking at all his friends' moms. That's why he's bulking up. He's trying to get a dad bod for all the moms out there. How do you think that went down? How do I think Zach Wilson slept with his mom's? best friend.

Yeah, I don't think that went down. There's a lot of pornography out there that you could like figure out sort of a general storyline. If it's, you could do your research and find it out pretty quickly. Yeah, maybe that's,

you think that's what Kyrie means every time he's like, do your own research? Yeah, probably, yeah. But he's had a lot of time in a sense. Can we go back? Like, if the Patriots win, I don't know, 10, 10, 11 games, and Mac Jones takes another step

because he was the best rookie quarterback last year, I think. I mean, we have, we got Jacobi Myers, We've got Kendrick Bourne and we have Devonty Parker. I think the problem is that what we're saying is the good teams usually have a great receiver one and we just saw the Patriots go. How long has it been since the Patriots really had a good receiver? I don't know, like a thousand, two thousand years.

Well, Edelman. Yeah, you know what's weird about the Patriots? I've been thinking about this. I thought of this the other day because I was trying to think of, you're trying to, like, this is the time of year you challenge your assumptions. Like the running Joker has had with Jonathan Charks, one of our NBA writers is like, it's NBA Summer League. It's like Summer League, NFL preseason.

It's just for your own confirmation bias. It's like you ignore it unless it helps what you already think. But in all seriousness, like you do want to challenge your assumptions. And I was like, what are the most deeply held assumptions I have about the season? And I realized that number one on the list was that Matt Patricia will be a terrible offensive point for the Patriots. Like there's, I have not even considered for one moment that he could be good at this job. But what if Matt Patricia was good at his job? Can we entertain that for a moment?

I mean, I don't even think so like, yeah, I like that. I like where you're coming from. I like where your head's at. I don't even really think about it that way other than I just think there's a lot of signs that the Patriots offense could be a lot better than everybody thinks they are. I don't think the Patricia angle in particular is like compelling. I think that's more like hand-waving it because of Patricia running it and it's more of a meme. It's like Joe Judge and Patricia are co-running the offense.

Ha, ha, ha. And that's kind of the end of a lot of analysis. But that's, I think, the compelling. part of what Craig's saying. Just like the problem is who's the number one, I think. It's like you got to pick the right guy. True. But they're all very cheap, so it really doesn't matter.

And Craig mentioned Bobby Trees here for a second. Yeah. We're all out on Treylon Burks already. This is what we did with freaking Jamar Chase last year. Is it not the same thing? Jamar Chase was dropping balls. Traylon Burks is having trouble. I mean, his ass is picking up.

Yeah. So it's not actually practicing. This is a difference to me not practicing. and just, you know, catching the ball. Also, Jamar Chase's... I'm exaggerating, clearly. But I will say, going back to last year, he was dropping passes,

he had, like, multiple drops in those preseason games, and there was off-season reports in training camp, I believe, that he wasn't separating, and he wasn't really doing anything in training camp. And then we all got kind of, like, cold feet about it,

even though we, like, hyped him up all off-season. I'm not saying that it's exactly the same with Trayland Berks, but you guys are going with the guy that's coming off in ACL over the first-round rookie. I don't know if Robert Woods is guaranteed even be ready for the, beginning of the season.

That might be true, but I'm saying if he is, I mean, if he is healthy and him and Traylon Berks, I guess, are the two out receivers? Like, are you really going to be surprised if Robert Woods is putting up five catches for 80 yards every single week? No. A little, a little. What? I love Bobby, but, like, I think they got him because he's a willing blocker.

Like, I think D.K's probably right. If we're really in the spirit of this exercise, I don't, I think Traylon Burks will probably be overdrafted because. people will just do the one-for-one connection of like, well, A.G. Brown was good as a rookie, so Trill and Burks will replace him to be good as a rookie, and it just isn't good. I think the Titans will be downhill this year.

But I think Berks is more likely to be a top-10 guy than Bobby Trees, as much as I love Bobby Trees. That I agree with, but I guess I would say Woods is more likely to be like a fantasy starter on your team this year. That is, yeah, yeah, probably. Okay. So the list we've got here, so pulling through this list. And again, the whole point of this was that.

You're trying to find a top 12 receiver. Nine of the 12 come from a team that are in the playoff on or in the playoffs. So with that said, pulling from teams that we think will be in the playoffs. We've got Michael Pittman for the cults. Mike Williams for the Chargers. Alan Lizard, maybe for the Packers. Sure, sure. Alan Robinson for the Rams, maybe behind Cooper Cup.

Rashad Baton for the Ravens. Cortland Sutton for the Broncos. Chris Olavi for the Saints. and then we got Devante, some asteris guys toward the end, but to a lesser extent, Olave, Devante Parker, Robert Woods, Trillenbergs, if I told you two of these guys did end up finishing as top 12 receivers this year in 2022,

I want you to pick those two guys right now, the guys who did it. Pittman and Sutton. Yeah, I mean, I think the easy answer is Pittman, but again, I'd go back to like he's being drafted basically like he is already. We're just talking about when they finish. So let's think it's not Pittman.

Okay. We'll agree in Pittman. Let's take Pittman out. Mike Williams and Sutton? And then my dark horse would be Rashad Bateman. I agree. The Alan Lazard thing is probably going to plague us. You already said it.

He's Mike Davis. You're going to do this with Alan Lazard. You really want to depend on anything Aaron Rogers does this year? Well, you know what we should do? We should figure out if Alan Lizard has. this star sign for the, oh, I speak it to which, what a perfect segue, actually. So we were talking about Aaron Rogers' tattoo, and we implored Tatum, who is one of our, one of our wonderful listeners, and also, I believe self-identifies as a witch.

And Tatum, we asked Tatum for help. And like the true hero she is, she responded with an analysis of Aaron Rogers' tattoo, which if you have not seen, you should go to Instagram and see it. but it's basically like a mix of like astrology with like planetary galaxy stuff with like lions staring in the mirror and it's just there's a lot going on.

It's a very shilling woodly tattoo. So Tatum has, can I read this to you guys? I'm very interested, yes. Okay. And I encourage you if you're able to, if you have not seen Aaron Rogers's tattoo to pull up the tattoo at Instagram see.

And by the way, to establish Tatum's bona fides here, she, I believe correctly guessed all of our signs. I think she was two for three. Two out of three. Okay. Still very good. She was very close on the other one, I think.

It's pretty on the nose. Okay. Tatum says, Aaron Rogers tattoo, it looks like a tattoo of a birth chart and upon first glance, not knowing whose arm this was on. I would think it was a person who's big three,

the sun, the moon, the rising sign are Scorpio, Sagittarius, and Aquarius, given the three symbols at the top of the tattoo. But the two lions are puzzling. So maybe I'm thinking they just got a lot of Leo placements

in their chart, or maybe it's a Gemini thing with the twin symbologic his lines leaving each other. And then you tell me this tattoo is on Aaron Rogers. He's a Sagittarius son and for reference,

D.K. is a Leipers son. Hyfitt's is a Pisces son. Craig's a Leo son. Rogers is a Sagittarius son. His moon is a Scorpio. So that explains those two symbols but he's a Taurus rising and he has absolutely zero Aquarius,

Leo, or Gemini placements. So the tattoo kind of makes no sense given his birth chart. maybe it's representative of important people in his life and their astrological signs. Tatum says, I don't know, but I do know that Aaron Rogers is dating a new girl who looks like she is deep, deep into astrology and spirituality stuff. Her name is Blue of Earth, BLU, Blue of Earth. Oh, God, I love it. No, I know her.

Oh, you know her? And so Tatum says, wasn't he like a Disney adult when he was with his ex-fiance, Shiland Woodley? Aaron Rogers is just in his astrology ho era now. I love that. You know what else? It's funny is that usually astrology experts can make sense of anything and attribute anything to anyone. And the fact that Tatum as an astrology expert looks at this and goes, yeah, I don't know.

I can't make this one out. It doesn't make any sense. It's like perfect. She also asked if he'll start wearing crystals in his pads. And I was like, ha, ha. And I thought about it. I was like, I bet, I kind of bet he might do that. Yeah, I could see him putting them in his helmet or something.

Or in a necklace or something. Yeah. Okay. Oh, she ends it with something. This is totally something a Sagittarius would impulsively get tattooed on themselves. There it is. So that is some very important research. Shout out, Tatum.

Well, Tatum, if that tattoo, if you can kind of figure out by looking at that tattoo, which receiver is going to take off this year, please let us know. What is Lazard? What's his saying? Where is Lazard on the tat? Where is Sammy? Oh, yeah, wait. Let's figure this out.

When is Alan Lizard's birthday? Alan Lazard birthday? December 11th. So that means, I can't do this on top of my head. December 11th, he's a, he's a Sagittarius. Interesting. It's that good or bad, though. Rogers.

Rogers is the Sagittarius. It's something to note. Oh. What's Sammy? He's in June? Yeah, he's June. Oh, boy. Interesting.

No wonder Lazard and Rogers had that connection. He's a Gemini. I just guessed that. Did you guys even hear? figured that out ahead of time. All right. No, I didn't notice. Sammy Watkins is such a Gemini.

All right. That's score one for Alan Lazard. Okay. Thank you, D.K. Thank you, Craig. Thank you to Tatum for that email. Thank you to Aaron Rogers. Thank you for Alan Lazard,

top 10 receiver in 2022. Thank you for listening. Thank you, Lorne. Lauren. Thank you, a tribe called Quest. Nice, D.K. Solid pick. I was going to go with,

who sings the age of Aquarius? Oh, yeah. I have no like... But I couldn't think of a band name. I don't know who does that. Age of Aquarius is sung by... Oh, goodness. Fifth Dimension.

I literally only know that song from the end of the 40-year-old version. Same. I also think the end of the 40-year-old version is like... They don't completely land it, but I think that they do... It's what they wanted to do.

Like, the end of this is the end. Where, spoiler... They, you know, have the greatest scene in movie history, which is when they bring the Backstreet boys. is in heaven. I feel like that's what they were going for in 40-year-old Virgin, but they landed it.

I think it's impressive that they were able to get the studio to sign off on that ending in 40-year-old Virgin. Because, like, Apatow and them, they were largely unproven at that time. This is the end, I get it. These guys are all established.

Can you remind me what happens at the end of the 40-year-old version? Because I'm blanking. They have sex. Steve Krell had sex with... Spoiler alert. I should have seen that coming. Yes.

The Virgin is... no longer virgin and then he literally starts singing in bed the age of Aquarius and then it transitions into like a field and the entire cast is like dancing around singing the age of Aquarius. But it's not like a cut like in his head this is what happening. It's he literally just starts singing in bed. Yes. It's great. Okay. Got it. They let Apatel cook. Say goodbye. Say goodbye. Say goodbye. I think oh well I was going to ask you yes. I seriously, I'm going to put the Rams bets in on the Rams to win the division and the Ravens. Chargers too. Chargers too. Chargers.

I think the charge. I kind of, you know why it's because the chief schedule is just harder than the Chargers one. Yeah. And they're going to have to figure out their offense. Totally. Give me Vikings too. Yeah. Well, for the division or playoffs?

What are the Vikings? I actually don't know what the Vikings, because they have just the playoff odds. You want to look that up? No, we should go. All right, fine. Goodbye, everyone.