The Ringer NFL Show - Josh Allen’s Decline, Sell High on Calvin Ridley, and More Second-Half Predictions

Episode Date: November 4, 2020

We break down how to handle the Green Bay running back situation after several players have been placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list before revisiting our season-long predictions and doling out our bold predictions for the second half of the fantasy season.  Bold Predictions: David Montgomery, Bears (14:30) James Conner, Steelers (19:15) Josh Jacobs, Raiders (22:45) Leonard Fournette, Buccaneers (24:30) Antonio Gibson, Washington (27:40) Chase Edmonds, Cardinals (30:00) Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers (31:00) Josh Allen, Bills (35:45) J.K. Dobbins, Ravens (38:00) Calvin Ridley, Falcons (40:20) Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins (43:10) Bad Beats (47:30) Hosts: Danny Heifetz, Danny Kelly, and Craig Horlbeck Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On today's episode, we run through the Packers' running back situation and what to do there, and then we go through our bold predictions for the second half of the season, including the return of Lenny Fornes, the demise of Josh Allen, and whether Calvin Ridley is the ultimate sell high. Stick around. Welcome to the Ringer Fantasy Football Show. I'm Danny Hyfitz here with Danny Kelly and Craig Horlebeck. Are you guys ready for a fun fact?

Hit me. Yeah. This is from Klein in Canada. Did you know? that the lighter is older than the match. I did not know that. Explain that. Yeah, I don't understand that.

Did you do like a background check on or anything? I did a background check. The lighter was invented in 1823 and the match was invented in 1826. Isn't that crazy? All right. All right. So we're going to spit some hot takes today.

So there you go. We're the third iteration of fire. Nice. We're doing bold predictions. All right. You'll get the ding, but it wasn't like a specific pun but it was associated.

Yeah, well I think we can spark. You know what? Honestly, I'm not going to lie like there probably was a stronger transition there. And I left some on the table. I left some meat on the bone there, yeah. But we're not leaving any meat on the bone for this segment because we're doing bold predictions. We did this in the preseason.

It was a lot of fun. Now the season's halfway over, depending how you count. But, you know, week nine moving forward. So we're going to give, we're going to look back at some of the ones we did, see what went right, what went wrong and why. but we're also going to give our bold predictions for the second half.

And to be clear, these are 100% guaranteed to be right. Right? Is that what we're going with? Totally. Yeah. Why would we make wrong predictions? I mean,

I'll be honest, when Craig told me that we were going to do a revisiting our bold takes from the preseason, I had a minor panic attack because I was like, oh, God. You're like, wait, what have I done?

There's accountability? I thought I could just say shit. I looked at them in there, all right. So we'll get into those, but. All right. We're going to get into all that.

First of all, if you have more fun facts, questions about your team, or just thank you for all the people who sent me yogurt advice. Ring your fantasy football at gmail.com. Never thought that would be a sentence that was said. I didn't know that yogurt subculture was such a big deal. Oatmeal, too. But whatever. Thank you for all that. But first, before we get into all that, let's just talk about the Packers running back situation for Thursday at football, which is a disaster.

So Aaron Jones is out with a calf injury. That injury is either more serious than it was made it be at first or they're being very cautious with it. Jamal Williams has been very good in his absence. but Jamal Williams has been designated a close contact of third string running back,

AJ Dylan. AJ Dylan has coronavirus. Jamal Williams is a close contact of him. The Packers playing Thursday so now Aaron Jones is probably almost

definitely not playing Thursday. Jamal Williams is not playing. AJ Dylan is not playing. So that leaves the Packers with Dexter Williams who was on the practice squad and Tyler Irvin

who is really like a receiving back. They've been lining him up in the slot to play on two or three days notice for this Thursday night football game. Yeah. So, Deky, what the hell do you do if you have Jones or you've been leading on Jamal Williams?

Like, should you play Dexter Williams or Tyler Irvin? Yeah, I think you can play Dexter Williams if you're really desperate to get a fill in for this. The hard part about all this is that the Packers, I believe, only had one running back on their practice squad, and they can't just bring a guy in at the last second in this scenario because they have to go through the Corona protocols, and it takes a while.

You can't just sign a guy off the street. So basically, I don't think that the Packers don't really have any other options right now. Other than just getting creative with the way that they use personnel. Tyler Irvin, like you said, Danny, he's not really a running back. He's listed as a running back, but he's basically a receiver. So I think that de facto Dexter Williams becomes their starter. And I'm not like, I don't think it's that terrible of a situation. Dexter Williams, I believe was a six-round pick last year for them out of Notre Dame.

you know, he didn't impress or anything like that in the preseason, but he has him experience. He's a bigger guy. He's athletic. You know, he's not like just some Joe Schmo type of player. I think he'll be fine to fill in and he knows the system and all that. So I don't think it's the end of the world for the Packers. It's a risky start in the fantasy realm because I could see the Packers just passing more in this game.

And apparently Aaron Jones was like limited in some capacity on Monday in practice. So I think he could play. But the best thing that's happening is that this. on a Thursday because you can just go add somebody else. It's just, it's more unfortunate than it is like going to actually really make you start Irvin or Williams unless you're really strapped. Yeah, I think you have to be really desperate to start those guys. If you're in a terrible spot, yeah, sure, Adam, go for it.

But I think the fact, here's, I think there's a couple things they might do. One, they might just do screens that act as the running game. I mean, we've already seen for five years now. Teams are just, you know, calling pass plays. They're really run blocking for past short. passes. I think he might see that to the outside with Tyler Irvin. And I think Dexter Williams might get some inside stuff. But the reality is, I think there's going to be questions about him past blocking. He gave up a punt block. The Packers allowed, like,

one of their puns to be blocked. And he blew the block. So I think there's going to be some doubt about his blocking for Aaron Rogers. But really, I think this is why you have Aaron Rogers. Like when they get to the one or two yard line, you have, I mean, one of the smartest quarterbacks in football, one of the best quarterbacks in football. I just don't think they're going to trust these guys to, like, get goal line carries. How many targets is Devante Adams going get 30? How high can you count? I don't know. I love it.

So, yeah, I think it means Star Al-Nazard more than it means Dexter. Not Alan Zard, because he's hurt. But it means start Packers, receivers, and Robert Tunyon more than it means the running backs. Okay. That's Thursday night football. Bull take time? You want to just do like the lightning review

of our preseason takes? Each of us can go through them. Yeah. And to be clear, the bar here was, they have to get into Salty Spatoon. If you've seen SpongeBob, you know, you have to be tough enough, you have to be bold enough to get in the salty spatoon, because if it's like wimpy, wimpy, wimpy, then... Weeniehah Jr. Exactly, you're Winiah Jr.

So, with that said, should we shepherd Dek's takes for him, or is Deka going to... I can read him. Because I think there needs to be some subtle lightning defense of each one, so we'll let the person who made them talk about them. Yeah, again, to reiterate what Haifis just said, these were bold in the preseason. All of these made it into the spatoon. Some of them might actually not sound as bold as you think now, based on what we've seen, but at the time, at the time,

how right we were. So I'll just start it off. My first bold take before the season was that Tom Brady would lead the NFL in touchdown passes. This was when a lot of people thought he was completely washed up, didn't really know what was going to happen. He is currently third in the NFL touchdown passes. So that thing is still alive right now, I feel like. And now he's getting Antonio Brown, so the arrow's pointing up.

Yeah, you could say that's, still alive. I think there's a chance that happens. My second bold take, which was very closely related to the Brady one, was that Mike Evans would finish number two in PPR points per game. That is not going to happen. I don't think. He's currently the wide receiver 31. I will say, in the defense of my vision for how this was going to go, Evans does have, he is tied for the league lead in touchdowns this year. The only problem is all of his touchdowns are like one or two yards long. Yeah, he's just the first wide receiver fullback, and no one predicted that. He is 43rd in the NFL in receiving yards, tied for first in receiving touchdown.

That's probably the largest discrepancy there's ever been between the leader and touchdowns in years. It sounds like Jimmy Graham. It's Jimmy Graham when he was on the Seahawks. He had like 10 touchdowns or something that year, and he was just, that was the only place they used him at all. So that one I would say is definitely a miss, and it's not going to happen, but at least Evans is still usable in the fantasy realm. My third, my third bold take is the worst by far. Cam Acres finishes ahead of Aaron Jones. This is the one I was like, oh God, do we have to rehash this?

Just move on. Yeah, let's just move on. Obviously, that one was preposterous. It's not happening. Number four, Rahim Mostert finishes, and Hifitz has me saying Mostert. Rahim Mostert finishes as an RB1 this year. Obviously, the injury kind of fucked me on this prediction. But on a per game average, he is the RB7.

technically not a terrible prediction. Joe Burrow, this is number five, Joe Burrow finishes of the top six quarterback. That is still in play too. Currently the QB8. So, you know, on the whole, some definite misses, some hits, I say, or at least on track to be potential hits.

So I don't hate, I don't really hate everything that I kind of like threw out there. These were bold. Remember, these are bold takes in the preseason. No, but yeah, no, that's good. Craig, do you have a lightning round first? DK's lightning rounds are more like thunder. Okay, yeah. Ready?

Sorry, sorry. My first bold prediction was that Tom Brady would be a top two fantasy quarterback. He's currently the quarterback five. So I don't think I even expected the Russell Wilson explosions because he's not catching him in touchdowns and he's probably not catching him in points either. My number two was that Aaron Jones will have the same year as last year, fantasy points-wise.

And you know what? Last year he was the RB4 in points per game. This year he's the RB4 in points per game. Oh, wow. So thank you very much. My number three, he has been hurt, which sucks, but number three is that Austin Echler would be a top five back. He was the RB8 before getting hurt. That one kind of sucks.

Number four was that David Johnson would lead all running backs and tight ends. The leader has seven. David Johnson has four. Yeah, did you say tight ends instead of touchdowns? Oh, maybe I read T.E. Nat TD. David Johnson, that'd be interesting if he led all running backs in tight ends. Think about that.

So yeah, sorry, touchdowns. He has four. The leader has seven. They do have a lot much easier schedule remaining. They had a really rough first four weeks. I'd say it's still alive. It's alive. I'm just not over you saying tight ends because you wrote it down.

You're like Ron Burgundy. Right. And my last one isn't my biggest miss. Evan Ingram would be a top two tight end. He is the tight end 16. I think it's fair to say that the Giants' offense has been supremely disappointing based on expectations. So there you know.

I think that that's, I agree. Supremely disappointing is the correct way I would put it. Supreme is the right word. Quick aside. I just got to say it. I saw the stat from ESPN or NFL on ESPN or something like that last night. Daniel Jones has, whatever it is, 29, turnovers, 31, turnovers in his first, whatever, 23 games. That is the most since Ryan Leaf.

Ryan Leaf. Oh, Jesus. That is not good. That's not good company to be in. So did you guys watch the Monday football game last night? Yeah. So first of all, I was shocked. The Giants played so well.

And I think that was the most shocking. part of the whole thing. The line like outplayed the Bucks line. I thought their play calling was pretty nice. That was the best play calling Jason Garrett's had in what feels like 10 years because he designed four shot plays that all should have been touchdowns on like seven drives. It was kind of amazing. But the Daniel Jones thing, when my brother was teaching me to drive and we're on the highway the first time, he told me like, you have to always know you're out. Like if someone cuts you off or the car ahead of you stop short, like, do you know where you like go left, go right? Like, do you know how you can avoid an accident at all times?

times. And Daniel Jones has no idea what his out is on any given play. He has no clue. It's like he not only, forget missing the touchdowns, which is its own problem. Forget the timing on the two-point conversion he missed. When Daniel Jones has pressure in his face, he doesn't realize it at first, and then he panics, but he doesn't know where the checkdown is to spike the ball in the dirt. He has no sense of what he's supposed to do when he's in danger. He's like that Simpsons kid who's like, I'm in danger. sorry, I know that no one cared about that, but I'm just so mad. No, you're right. I mean, he has really no idea what's going on except for what's immediately in front of him. Yeah, he's like a small, isn't that like a stage of like developmental learning? Object permanence. Object permanence. That's Daniel Jones.

My God. It's, uh, anyway. Let's just go into my bull predictions. Yes, let's do that. My bull takes. So I said Devante Adams would break the catch record. Obviously not going to happen because he got hurt. his per game pace if it were applied to 16 games is like he'd be on pace for like 138 or something

obviously it's still 10 short but he is the wide receiver 1 in terms of points per game so every week that he's played he's been unbelieve so that one i think spirit is correct letter the law is wrong then i have christian mcalfrey won't be a top five back no he got hurt that one i think is technically correct but the spirit of the of the rule is wrong because yeah because he was like Based on what he did in two weeks, it was... Yeah. He was doing an elite production in the two weeks that he played. My concern was the Panthers' offense wouldn't be good.

Joe Brady's been one of the better play callers in the NFL. So technically correct. I actually think that one's spiritually wrong. DeAndre Hopkins, I said, would not be a top 15 wide receiver. Oops. He's like top five. Vaughn into the windup in his first offering. Just a bit outside.

He tried the corner and missed. Oops. There's still time. Sure. There's still time for him to be bad. the other one I said half the tight ends being drafted in the top 10 would not make it to the top 10 that one's actually right so far

that should be that should be a bold prediction every single season yeah that's a given yeah that one is right so far and then I'm the I have one that's already punched I have levy on bell will be bench for frank or by Halloween that's amazing he was cut for frank Gore by Halloween so there you go that's a win the okay bold predictions for the rest of the season so we're recording this on Tuesday afternoon So the trade deadline has not gone through yet.

It seems like it's kind of boring so far. Maybe some crazy deal. There's not a lot of buzz right now around it. So if Will Fuller ends up getting traded to the Packers, then we'll revisit. But for now, we're doing these bold predictions before the deadline. D.K., are you ready to go into the Salty's Patoon? I'm ready. And honestly, I feel like these are pretty bold.

I've got some bold ones for you guys. Nils for breakfast, no milk. They go against my better judgment, I think, which makes them bold. I love that. Yeah, I would say, like, when I was writing these, it's like, this doesn't make sense, but I'm going to do it anyway. Number one, David Montgomery of the Bears,

will be an RB1, and I'm going to specify a low-end RB1, so like RB12, in half PPR over the second half of the year. I didn't want to do this. Believe me, I realized that he's been one of the most underwhelming and inefficient running backs in the NFL this year,

and I realize Craig and I both kind of talked him up a few weeks ago. I'm backtracking. off that take a little bit. Like, the amount of volume that he's gotten and the efficiency that he's had with all that is just not great. However, I will say a couple of things working in his favor for the second half of the year. Number one, the bears have the second easiest slate of defenses from week nine on, according to sharp football stats.

And digging a little deeper, it's the fifth easiest in rush defense efficiency. So he's got a really easy schedule coming up. Taking a look at that, it's the Titans, Vikings, Packers, Lions, Texans, Vikings. and jags. Are there any good defenses in there? There's like the ghost of a few good defenses. No. And then secondly, I think the thing that's really important here is that Monty is getting like unquestioned volume. As long as he stays healthy, he's going to get that volume. If you look at the last five games, he's gotten 271 of 340 running back snaps.

So the vast, vast majority of the running back snaps. He's gotten 19 out of 21 of the team's red zone looks at running back. Seventy four of the 85 running back carries over the last five games and a 15% target share, which is 10th most among running back. So no matter how you look at it, the volume is there. And I just want to like take a step back real quick and kind of talk about Montyby because Craig and I, I think both went to bat a little bit for him a couple weeks ago. The overarching narrative on him is that he just fucking stinks right now. Like everybody, if you just look at Twitter, like everyone's like, this guy sucks. I will say though, I want to I want to point out,

PFF's elusive rating and broken tackles metrics and yards after contact carry, all those metrics, generally speaking, are very sticky in terms of these are very good players. These are good players. And Montgomery, for what it's worth, is pretty high in all these metrics. He is ninth right now in PFF's elusive rating, tied for first in avoided tackles on the ground, 29, second in avoided tackles on catches with 10. Among all running backs this year, only Mike Davis has broken. broken more tackles.

So... Wait, so I'm confused. Are you... Why does this go against your better judgment? Because the bear's offense is bad? Because the eye test, I think, just says he's not good. But, like, there's underlying numbers that say he is good. So I'm just like, I'm very...

Like, my logic would say, like, give up this take. Don't die on this hill. He's not a good player. You know, he's very inefficient with the amount of volume that he's getting. So that would be why it goes against my better judgment. But at the same time, I'm like... secretly kind of sticking to this take that he's like actually good

he's gonna have a really good second half. So I guess what I'm saying is like there's some cognitive dissonance happening right now. Hi Fitz. Is this prediction get into the Salty's Baton? I feel like I feel like if D.K's hedging in the middle of said bold prediction.

Let me just say this. He's the RB 28 in points per game. And you're saying he'll be top 12? Yeah, okay. That is, I mean, that is bold. I will say he's the RB 15 straight up. Okay, well, do you want me to amend it to per game? Honestly, maybe.

I mean, he's the RB-15 straight up, and we're just saying he's going to be three spots better. Okay, well, that's fair, and that's a fair critique. However, I was looking at his points per game when I was making this thing, and I was like, Jesus, he's so inefficient. I mean, that's like that more accurate way to talk about it. Yeah, let's say he'll be the RB-12 or better

in points for game over the second half of the year. Okay. That's Petuny. I feel like we got through that, and I still don't know whether you, whether, should I trade for David Montgomery or trade him away? I still don't know. You want to trade for him?

Maybe you should trade Zeke for Monty. That is a bold move right there. The point is, the bottom line for me, Hafeitz, is I feel dumb making this, making this bold prediction. So I feel like that makes it pretty bold. Okay. You know what?

You screw it. Yeah. You know what? You're in the spatoon. If you're going against all the narratives. That works for me. Yeah. Okay.

I have one that I feel strong. stronger about. I My bold one, I think James Connor is a top five running back in November. If you guys don't think that's bold enough all up at the top three, my point is that Well, this is a second half prediction. I'm doing for a month specifically, and here's why. Sure. If you need to make, like if you're on the edge of the playoffs and you're just like, you know what,

I need to, you know, finish three and one, four and oh, whatever it is to make the playoffs. Like, I need to go on a run, but my team doesn't really have the juice. and you need to think about a move. I think maybe the top guy I'd go after is James Connor because it's kind of simple. Number one, he is just owning that backfield. We always talk about James Connor would be so good if he's healthy and stuff.

Benny Snell, who had vultured him a couple times earlier in the season, I don't think had a single carry against the Ravens last week. James Connor took 15 of the 16 carries for Pittsburgh last week. He's owning that backfield is number one. Number two, the Steelers schedule in November is so, favorable. They play, the next five games, they're playing against the cowboys, the Bengals, the Jaguars, and then the Ravens. Ravens is obviously a tough matchup, but the Cowboys, Bengals, and Jaguars are all top, or sorry, bottom five in rushing yards allowed. Those are three

of the worst five run defenses in the NFL, and the Steelers are lining them up like ducks in a row. So if you kind of are a little weak at the running back position for whatever reason, and you need to win because your playoffs start by Thanksgiving or the first week of December, or whatever. Conner is the guy, and the best part is that he hasn't been so dominant yet that the team manager who has him is necessarily going to charge your top dollar for him, but I think he's going to produce like a top end running back for the next month and probably get you into the playoffs. So to me, I think that that's really important to me. So I think that he's top five running back for November. I like it. Can I ask a random question while you were

saying that, Highfits? It occurred to me that I, and I've had people tell me this on, Twitter before that I say the name of the Jacksonville team incorrectly. Craig, how do you say the name of the Jacksonville team? The Jacksonville Jaguars. Say it again? The Jacksonville Jaguars. Jaguars. Jaguars. Because I say Jaguars. You say, oh, you're one of those? Jaguar. Jaguar. Like there's a, like, U-I-R-R-E? It's almost like, it's like J-A-G-W-A-R, I feel like it's the phonetic Like Mark McGuire. You say Jaguar. Yes. Yes. Why do you do that? And people have been upset with me on Twitter about this.

I don't know, that's just how I said. Jaguar. It's close. Anyway, now I can't hear it. That's neither here nor there, but I'm curious what you guys think of that. Hi, Vitz, this take, and I think you guys are going to say the same thing about mine. This is fine. You can sit on the patio of the spittoon.

Good. I'm not trying to go indoors to any bar right now. Not only is it not really that hot. It's not really what we talked about doing. It's this is supposed to be the second half of the season. No, yeah. I'm trying to get actionable information here.

Top three is better. You're basically like, oh, James Connor is playing the Bengals and the Cowboys in November, so he'll be good. Cool. I'm trying to help people

make the playoffs here, man, all right? Just sitting here like, just fire off bowl, trying to do a little mix. Yeah, fine. Top three. Top three.

I don't care. Top three. Fine. Okay. Okay. Cool. Sure. Okay, I'm up. I think Josh Jacobs will not be a,

top 15 running back in the second half of the season. Yeah, I can see that. What is he right now? He's RB 10. You just gave me crap for the Connor thing, and now you're like, Jacobs will move back five spots for the second half. But didn't I preface this by saying,

you guys are going to feel the same way about mine? Oh, yeah, that's a good point. That's a very good point. So are we going to make Craig go mend it top 20? I could potentially do that. Yeah, he's the RB 10 in points for game and just straight up. But aside from his week, His week one three touchdown performance, he's the RB 23,

and he's pretty much non-existent in negative game scripts. Anytime the Raiders lose, he's just like, he's like Tyler Irvin. So, except the opposite, because he doesn't catch passes. So their next eight games to finish out the season, four of them are against top eight defenses, and the other games are against the Chiefs, presumably will be a high-scoring game with not a lot of running, and then the Dolphins and the Jets,

which maybe those two games are fine. But I just don't love his schedule the rest of the way out, and I kind of see him a little bit in like the Todd Gurley range. I've debated putting Todd Gurley in this same prediction where they're very touchdown dependent, very game script dependent. And I think, you know, if you want to give some actionable advice to this, I would maybe try and shop Josh Jacobs after his 31-touched 128-year performance in which he only scored 12 points because he didn't cut him for James Carter.

Yeah, if you could do that, absolutely do it. Would you trade Jacobs for Montgomery in this scenario? Oh, that's... Probably not. That's the least exciting trade I can think of it. I didn't convince you enough, apparently. Damn it. All right.

That's fair. All right, D.K., what's your next bowl take? All right. So, after watching the Buccaneers game last night against the Giants, I came up with this, Leonard Fortett, low end RB1 in PPR over the second half of the year. Oh. And this is...

I'm just happy to hear his name. Yeah, I know. I had to do something with Lenny Fornes. He was kind of like... He became a Stephen Glansberg. unspoken I thought about Lenny Fornes for a second here but then I was like

Ronald Jones fumble that's why he played so much I don't know I will say though however even if they're splitting carries and splitting the backfield work Fortnight is still getting the more valuable touches

he's involved in the passing game you know he wasn't a huge deal last night but the week before he had six catches for 47 yards if he could average like four or five to six catches per game plus get some goal line work I think that could make him really in play for like a low-end RB1, high-end RB2. I'm saying my bold take is RB1, but in reality, I do think he's going to be startable every week going forward in the second half of the year.

I think he has that high-end RB2 potential. And again, like Montgomery, the Buccaneers' second half schedule is pretty promising for him. They've got the Saints who, on paper, or like the first thought with the Saints is that they have a good defense. Their defense has not been good this year. They have the Panthers whose run defense has been one of the worst in the NFL. They have the Rams and the Chiefs who do have good defenses. So those two games are maybe a little sketchy. But then it's Vikings, Falcons, and Lions.

To me, there's basically two good defenses in that group. I think they're going to be happy to give Four Nett, again, those like Red Zone carries. He's sort of the power back for them. And as much of a Ronald Jones truther and believer as I've been, I still think Jones's main problem is he's not very reliable. Like he's a little bit, like he might be a more talented runner than Fournett, but to me he's not very reliable. He makes like,

it seems like he makes a mistake or two every game that really just kind of like builds on itself. And we saw that again last night after he fumbled, he was like basically a non-factor. You know, I know that he's had issues with pass pro. He's had issues catching the football. So, you know, as we get into the second half of the year,

as we get into the crunch time, I don't know, I'm just kind of betting that the team is going to trust Fournette a little bit more. And Brady in particular is going to trust Fornet a little bit more. So that's why I'm betting on Fournette in the second half. You're seated at a booth in the Spatoon after this one, I think. This is good. You got a nice corner booth. I'm just seeing him as the James.

He's like a big James White. I can't believe Leonard Fornett's career has transformed into like a receiving back guy. I know. Same here. It's weird. but he yeah he's not like he's not like a classic you know he's not like a Danny Woodhead an Echlear where he's running you know vertical routes or anything like that but he has been pretty reliable on dump-offs little routes over the middle things like that whereas like

rojo is straight up unreliable he can't he's terrible in the passing game yeah we always we always get so frustrated when coaches bench someone after fumbling but I get it because Craig made a mistake earlier this season and then we benched him for the pod and pretended he went to Lake Tahoe. So, you know, we, you know, I get it. Okay. Craig, do you have another bull take? Antonio Gibson will be a top 10 running back in the second half of the season. Ooh. He is currently the running back 20. You said top 10? Yes. Oh, wow. He's currently the RB 20. I love Antonio Gibson. Talk about the eye tests. Passes the eye test and passes the nerd stat test. He has forced a mistackle on 26% of runs the most among all running backs in the NFL. He is the fifth

best rated running back in general in the NFL per PFF. And since week one, he's led the team in running back snaps. I just think it's going to continue getting bigger and bigger. In week seven before the buy, he had his first game with over 20 opportunities. And what I love the most about Antonio Gibson is that week's 14, 15, and 16, the fantasy playoffs. He plays the Niners, the Seahawks, and the Panthers. I love it. We do all this prep of, you know, being like, we can predict the future. and then Jonathan Taylor, who was what, the sixth month college rushing yards ever, we're talking about, can he see holes? Can he like re-blocks?

And then Antonio Gibson comes in, gets more touches in the first five weeks than he had in all of college, and is like exactly as elusive as he was in the SEC. What the hell? How does that even happen, D.K.? No one knows anything. That is an amazing contrast. That is, yeah. How does anyone get anything right ever is the question?

I just can't believe. No, really, though. The fact that we're down back-to-back episodes like, Taylor, does he suck? Gibson. It is so crazy how the translation between the college level and NFL, I guess any amateur than any pro thing is just completely and utterly unpredictable until you see it happen. Yeah. Anyway, now that we've just cleared this entire exercise is futile, I do think that gets in

the salty spittoon, Craig. Thank you. Thank you. Yeah. My God. Is it my turn? Yep. All right.

I think Chase Edmonds is top five running back rest of the way. Oh, top five. Top five. And not only is that little nuts. This is what Drake did last year. Yes. I love it. I love it.

You beat me to it, D.K. And I think this sounds bold if you're like, oh, Kenyon Drake will be out the rest of the season. The reality is Kenyon Drake's injury, which looked really bad. The Cardinals don't think it's as bad as it seemed. They think he'll miss. So they're on by. They were on by last week. He'll probably miss week nine.

He might, Kenyon Drake might come back as soon as week 10. I don't care. When Kenyon Drake's been healthy, Chase Edmonds has been. so obviously better by any number you want to pick, any play you've watched. Chase Edmonds is just the better player in almost every facet of the game. And I think that the injury is going to be the excuse

for the Cardinals that, you know what, we're going to play our best players. We know we gave Kenyon Drake $14 million. I don't care. Chase Edmonds is going to get the rock. I hate that term. But he's going to get the ball for the rest of the season. And the Cardinals have a good schedule.

Like November the PIN. So he's getting the ball. The Cardinals next few games are against like Miami, Buffalo, Seattle, Patriots, teams that don't have a great front seven presence, quite honestly. And I just... How dare you say that about the Seahawks? Yeah, right?

Well, at least they have a presence. But no, I just, I think Chase Edmonds is... I mean, you beat me to it, but he's the guy that if you're like, oh, someone's gonna score a touchdown in each of the next eight games, I'm like, Chase Edmonds. You got a seat by a window in the Spatoon for sure.

Thank God. You need flow. To be clear, the Salty Spatoon, no one's allowed in the Salty's Patoon yet. Outdoor only six feet sputoon. facing at all the picnic tables. No one's allowed in the spittoon. In is a metaphor.

Right. You're allowed in the picnic area, and your drinks will be delivered to you. Correct, correct. Just got to be clear about that. Okay, D.K., another bold take for us? Prediction? Sorry, we're not doing takes here.

We're doing predictions, please. We would never do bold takes. Yeah. And now that I'm looking at it, this one maybe doesn't feel quite as hot or bold as the other ones, but Brandon Ayyuk of the 49ers outscores basically every other rookie receiver

except for Justin Jefferson. I'm saying T. Higgins, C.D. Lamb and Jerry Judy, you know, at minimum, plus Mims and whoever else. I think Brandon Ayuk has a really strong chance to have like a blow-up second half of the season, basically, is what I'm saying. If he's still out there, go grab him. He's had 18 targets, 14 catches, 260 yards, and a touchdown over the past two weeks. He's really starting to find his groove in this offense. Now, Jimmy G is out. So that is a factor. However, if you believe that Mullins and Jimmy G. are approximately equal, if not Mullins is better, then this could, actually be sort of like a blessing in disguise for iuk regardless i think that shanahan is going to devise ways to get him the ball get him the rock every game um whether that's on sweeps end around

screens you know rpo slants you know you name it and i think they'll probably end up getting a little bit more involved on like deep shots too but bottom line is i think i yuk has looked really good Kittle is out for potentially the whole season. If not, you know, if he's not out for the whole season, it'll be like five, six weeks. Debo is out at least for a couple more weeks probably. Mosert is out. The Niners are completely just banged up in the running back group. I think they're going to have, and as you mentioned this, like Ayuk is sort of going to be an extension of the running game.

So all those things together, I think he's going to get the volume. I think he has the talent to exploit that. And I think he's going to be the big name rookie receiver. over the second half here. I still think Jefferson has the volume to outscore him, so I didn't quite, I wasn't quite ready to go all the way and say he's the top ranked rookie.

I think this is Weenie Hut, Jr. I think the fact, your analysis is spot on. The fact that you won't put him ahead of Justin Jefferson to me, I think he's the top rookie going forward, period. Yeah, I think if you put him ahead of every rookie, you're in this platoon. Can I cut D.K. in line, and you'd be like, Ayuk is the number one rookie receiver for the rest of the season

and be like, I get in, and he doesn't? you swoop in and steal his prediction. Yeah, I just take his spot in line. I'm sorry, I was with my friends. My friends were waiting. I don't know. I felt like this was pretty spicy, but yeah, let's go for it.

So he'll outscore all other rookie receivers. Well, because here's why. I think CD Lamb... You're sitting at the bar at the Spatoon. C.D. Lamb, it's like, who knows what's going on there with the O line the way it is and Andy Dalton, the quarterback,

and God forbid, if Ben Danutius to come back. Jerry Judy is good and could have a good second half, but I think pretty uncontroversially Ayuk is better than Judy. So really, you're just saying he'll outscore T. which to me that's weeniehut Jr.

And Mims, which is pretty spicy. And Mims. I forget Denzel Mips. And Rugs. Mims. No, I get that. Yeah, that's fair. I'll go ahead and say it then.

And honestly, Jefferson's very like going to be high variance, I think, the rest of the year. That's just how the Vikings' offense works. So the reason I thought it was spicier is because they have that quarterback situation. But I agree. This is a little more fun if you make it more absolute. That might be like a Kenyon Drake Chase Edmund situation. We'll see.

Ayuk is interesting though. People should try and trade for him now because I bet you with all of the Niners, injuries, I guess mainly just Jimmy G's. I wonder if there's people who don't think the way you are thinking, D.K., about this and maybe you could get branded Iyuk. We didn't even mention Claypool. Claypool, too. Oh, yeah.

Oh, yeah, that's good. Forgot about him. Ayuk is the confluence of, I don't know, that's one of those words that used to sound smart. He's at the middle of like an elite act. athlete who now has an unbelievable opportunity is just like to be the focal point of an offense, which is so rare for like an hyper-etholic rookie so soon. But they don't have a lot else going on there. So I really like how you.

Craig, another bold prediction for us. Russell Gage top two wide receiver. I'm just kidding. Mine is Josh Allen will not be a top 12 quarterback in the second half of the season. I'm mad at you because I asked if Josh Allen was a cell high, like a, month ago, and you were like, no, obviously not. And then he heard his shoulder. Oh, wow.

And then he hurt his shoulder. Okay, so one, I do think he's kind of injured. But his last four games, since he got hurt, he's put up 18, 16, 16, and 14 points. But this is mainly a weather call. I had to work weather into this season in some way. I love weather. I think it's very important. Well, it's because you're from California and soft, to be clear.

Right. But my bones are in Pittsburgh, you know. Marin Morris once said, if the bones are good. Wait, what is your, what is your connection? My mom and all of my extended family were born and raised in Pittsburgh. But you were not. So you were not born in Steelers. But he's got Pittsburgh, good Pittsburgh stock.

My Italian family bones are in- Your bones of Silicon, not steel. Anyway, the average high, I'm like a fucking weather, man. The average high in Buffalo in December is 34 degrees in the lowest, We got, I mean, I'm just going to say it, like flu season, COVID season, who knows what's going to happen in the winter. It's going to be freezing cold. I'm just going to say it. Listen to the bills week.

This is the fantasy playoffs if you have Josh Allen as your quarterback. They play Pittsburgh in Buffalo in the freaking snow. Then they play at Denver, and then they play at New England. Including those, but for the rest of the season, Josh Allen has the third hardest strength to schedule for QBs. I don't think he'll be a starting quarterback in a 12-team league. going forward. Ooh, this is definitely, this is salty. I'm hearing that the Rona has an easy strength of schedule this winter, and therefore

benched Josh Allen. That's what I just heard. Absolutely. I don't get, okay. Yeah, sure. What I mean, sure? This is good. He's the quarterback like four right now.

Yeah. This one to me is very salty spittoony. It's a to tune. Yeah, this is good. You're going to have, the Bills fans are going to come down on you hard. You're going to hear from the Bills fans. The Bills Mafia. You cross the Bills.

mafia, you get whacked. I mean, I just thought of one, and this is like, this is very much my brand, but J.K. Dobbins, RB1, second half of the year, finally happening? Is it happening? The, like, number one or top 10? No, no, no, A. R1. We could even say, we could say, like, RB7 or better. That's actually quite spicy. That's where I hate the term. You just use them interchangeably. You're like, RB1 to mean top 12, and then you said RB7 to mean seven specifically. It's confusing. Yeah, I get, I get that's confusing. I didn't even use, I don't, I don't even use an article there. I was just like,

he's RB1. He is going to be N. R.B.1. How about that? How about that, Hyvitz? Hyvitz. You actually have one left, though, right? Yeah, but to the Dobbins thing, I think the only issue with the Dobbins thing is that it's just, no matter who gets the majority of those snaps, they're still going to be rotating

the running backs every drive. And so not only do you have to be on the field, on the scoring drive when the Ravens score for an offense that isn't as good, but Lamar might vulture it. There's a, like, Mark Andrews might vulture. There's just more variables of even if he's getting the snaps to be like that top tier production.

So I think that he's kind of like stuck between a cap of like top 10, top 50, just because unless Mark Ingram last year has so many touchdowns, it's hard to get the volume. What needs to happen is Ingram needs to stay hurt and then like Gus Edwards needs to get a cramp and then Dobbins needs to have like two really good games and then maybe they stick with them.

No, I actually think they'll rotate no matter what. Justice, I think they would not, they're not giving any 180. I think it's part of their analytics. Like it's just, They're just want cycling out people. They want fresh running backs

at all times. But the spirit of what you're saying, and Dodd's going to play. It's part of their analytics to play the worst players. Like, that just drives me insane. That doesn't make any sense.

Let's put out, let's toss out a 30-year-old guy who can't make anybody miss because that's what analytics say. I don't think that's right. No, I'm not saying that. I'm saying that I think that Dobb... Well, no, also,

don't just blame Analix. I'm also saying, but I also think John Harbaugh just philosophically is a guy who wants to rotate running backs. that I buy for sure it's just like old school coach think it drives me insane

Gus Edwards and Dobbins to me is a classic Thunder Lightning really reminds me actually of the Giants like 07 like the earthwind and fire when they like Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw and Derek Williams anyway yeah no one cares

okay my last bold prediction I don't think Calvin really is a top 10 receiver rest of the season he's got a foot injury does this assume that he's playing yes no it assumes he's playing. Got it.

Okay. So, yeah, I'm not saying like he's going to miss time with the foot. So do you mean top 10 per game played?

I don't, is he even projected to miss this week? It's like up in the air, but like he might be able to play. I think he is because they have a buy the week after. So I think,

so here's the thing. The foot sprain obviously does not help. Like I'm not saying, but I'm not, it's not about that. It's actually the Falcons. If you look at Warren Sharp

of the NFL show, has a fantastic site called Sharp football stats and you can look up the strength of schedule for a certain offense and defense and not just how much teams give up in situations, but also explosive. The Falcons, one of the reasons to we like the Falcons so much coming into the season was their

schedule, especially the first half of that schedule, which was just littered with bad pass defenses. The second half of this schedule for the Falcons is like the opposite of the first half. The first half was like a go. Like these are all terrible teams. The second half, the Falcons are playing, they have to play the Bucks twice still, and they have to play the Saints twice still. and they also get the chiefs in the Chargers. They have one game against the Raiders,

which is probably, you know, going to be amazing for the Falcons. But if you look at every team in the NFL's remaining schedule against past defenses, the Falcons is the worst, as in it's the hardest. And if you focus on explosive plays, like big plays,

the Falcons is still the hardest. Admittedly, the fact that the Bucks could have given up like five explosive plays last night, but just didn't probably would mess with those numbers. But the overlying point is, this is just an awful situation for the Falcons. and it's just every week,

it's not like you're going to bench Calvin Ridley. That's not what I'm saying. You're not going to bench him. But he's not really going to have a good matchup the rest of the way, other than that Raiders game, and he's got the foot sprain. So, considering he's the top receiver in all of fantasy football right now with a great schedule,

I actually don't even think it's nothing to say he won't be top 10. And if you could trade Calvin Ridley to someone who thinks, oh, I'm obviously getting a top 10 receiver, top five receiver right now, I would do it because if you can convince someone, the foot's going to be fine, the schedule is secretly really hard going forward. This is good. I like it. In the same logic, I assume you'd trade Julio too, if you get the chance.

Yeah, I mean, if you could. I think Ridley's more cute because he's literally the number one receiver in fantasy. So I just think that, again, and it's not so much like trade someone straight up. It's the idea that you're getting value of like, you're charging someone, hopefully, he's the number one receiver. But in your mind, you know that you're really giving away, like, you know, maybe someone will be top 15. So anyway, that's how I feel about that. So am I in this platoon?

You're in this platoon. Wonderful. All right. Can I give one spicy one before we move on? Better be spicy, though. Tua will get benched for Ryan Fitzpatrick. I like that. This is my nightmare.

But yes, this could happen. I think that the dolphins were, I think that Tua was supposed to play week 12 because the dolphins originally had a week 11 by. And I think that the schedule changed that pushed their buy up to week seven accelerated their plans when they kind of didn't want it to

but it was their only option because they wanted them to have two weeks to prep for whatever game they were playing and now that they have a legitimate chance to maybe win the AFC East I think if two is like terrible for the next game or two

that Fits could come back you know someone I apologize I don't remember who reported this but someone said basically that something that might have calculated into their thinking was that the Texans who they have the first pick

started what are they one and seven or whatever, some awful record. And they're like, well, if the Texans get a top three pick, the dolphins have so many draft picks, in theory, if they want to go get Trevor Lawrence, they could. Or at least if they're in the running to get him, Justin Fields, whoever, they need, they can't just see four games of Tua and then be like, do we have to punt them or not? They want to know if they need to pull the Kyler Murray and trade away Josh Rosen. They want to see what they have.

I actually, I don't know if that's what they were thinking, but it would make a hell of a lot of sense. But yeah, DK., do you think that to it? Like, what did you think of his debut? because he was fine. I don't imagine that they were going to, regardless of how bad he plays for like seven games, I don't think they would go draft Justin Fields

if Tua was bad for seven games. I think they're a little bit in the longer run than that. Yeah, so his first game, I was watching multiple games, like at the same time on Sunday. I haven't gone back and watched really closely. He was up and down. He had a couple of good throws.

His receivers definitely did not help. He had a couple of really bad drops on some good passes. But, you know, numbers weren't good. His PFF grade was pretty poor. You know, so it was like what you'd expect from a rookie going up against the Rams defense, which, Hyphids, as you mentioned before, like the Rams defense and their defensive coordinator are doing some really interesting things, like really high level, like forward thinking stuff. And it made it really hard on him. The pass rush got to him. And so,

again, you can't really judge too much on his debut. But it wasn't, it wasn't great. And I do think that they have to do like the due diligence in the sense that, like, Like, they don't want to do, they don't want to get second like a Josh Rosen situation where, or they, they could find themselves in a Josh Rosen situation where even though they drafted two last year, they still go out and get a Kyler Murray. And Fitz was also just great. Well, yeah. And here's the thing, though, like the, the dolphins are still, at least according to football outsiders, projections like on the outside looking in for the playoffs. I think I saw yesterday they're like 37% odd, like, chances for the playoffs, which is not, I mean, whatever, probability. probabilities it doesn't mean that they're out of it but you know they're still probably on the

outside looking in and i think they have like a multi-year plan in place here and they're going to stick to it but i could definitely see things changing if if two are really sucks like the next few weeks i like this i think you're i think you're in craig i like this one a lot thanks any other like spicy ones but want to fire off i imagine the sputoon is like you know when you go to like an old diner in l.a and on the wall there's like actors no one's ever heard of and they have their signatures on the wall. I imagine it's all of our predictions with our signatures all around the restaurant. Shout out Nick's coffee shop in Los Angeles. Oh, I know Nick. Are you talking on Pico? Oh, yeah. I love things. I've been there. I hope they're doing all right amid the pandemic.

The guy, Nick, or if that's, if it is Nick, who's the guy who's always there, lovely man. It's Clint. Clint is the guy who's always there. And then major shout out to Clint, who, oh my God, what a fountain of wisdom. And then Hannah, who's the way, who's just the best. lovely story, lovely establishment. This applies to almost nobody who's listening. But I just love the feel of a diner so much. Even D.K. Hey, look, it only applies to one-third.

It doesn't apply to you, but your odds, your percentage of the podcast is the same as the Dolphins playoff chances. True. Oh, there you go. Okay. Wilker, of those takes, though, which of your predictions was the favorite?

You can't pick your own. Which prediction did you like the most from that list? I think the spiciest is Josh Allen, but I like the Gibson one the most. I'm going to go with Gibson. I like Leonard Fornett. You know I love Letter Farnett. Just back and Fulntz.

I like Chase Edmonds. Yeah, you do. I knew it. Okay. Bad beat time? Yeah. All right, this is from Brian. Hey, Brian.

Hi, Brian. Jens, I actually won, but it's still amazing. My friend Andrew was up by 0.04 points, and then Tom Brady took a knee on the last play of Monday Night Football. Oh, no. Wow. which... The knee lost him

like one yard or whatever and that was it? So this is number one that sucks ass, that's terrible. Number two, have you ever noticed that Brady refuses to back up on his kneel downs at the end?

I think it's because he wants to have X amount of rushing yards at the end of his career. Oh, he's stat patting. Yeah, so he like, he did this in the game and then he ended up still losing a yard, I guess, but like when he did the kneel...

instead of take knees. Seriously, he almost did. He was like banging into the center. He literally was like, I'm not going to back up anymore. He's like, he's like pinballing around in the pocket, like on the final maybe he had zero rush yards and he didn't want negative. Yeah. Did you start paying attention to this in the Seahawks Super Bowl when the Seahawks, they had one like one play left on the one yard line and like if they got a safety like they would have won the game and then there was a whole fight at the end of the Super Bowl? I mean, no, that's, he's been, I think he's been doing this for a couple years because he like wants to keep those those rushing stats for whatever reason. Okay. And Brian writes as a postscript, I just want to say that my biggest fantasy-related

evolution has been to fully embrace how hilariously random and nonsensical it is. I used to get upset or want to make leagues, quote, reward the better player, but now I love the chaos. Let it all burn. A 2020 opinion right there. Yeah. Fuck it. This is how human beings adapt to, you know, ever-changing situations in the world. You just let, you know, you sit on the river and just let it take you.

As the French said in World War II, Say Laguerre. I don't have French. I can't do a French. What does that mean? You can't say Jaguar, you can't say anything in French. What is Seligat? What does that mean? I can't do it in a French accent.

It just means that's the war. I have a math fun fact for you guys. Perhaps you knew this, perhaps you didn't. It's very useful. I saw it on TikTok. He's not kidding either. Okay. percentages can be flipped, and here's what I mean by that.

50% of 36 is the same as 36% of 50. You know how I feel about math. 50% of 36% of 36% of 50. They're both 18. Isn't that just like fractions? So part of me is like absolutely mind-blown by that. And part of me is like, isn't it just like numerators and like... It's just, but when you think about it, if somebody was like, what is 36% of 50, you'd be like, I don't know.

but all you got to do is flip it and go, oh, 50% of 36, 18. It's just a way easier way to think about it. Oh, that is helpful. It's pretty crazy. I don't know. Here's the thing. I'm not even going to try and fact check that because I don't want to even try. It hurts my brain.

Okay. Well, that's for you guys. That's for the audience out there. If you ever, you know, stuck in math class, can't use a calculator, even though I don't know what the whippersnappers are doing these days. You get calculators now in math class? there's like classes now where you get your phone you notice that

I mean I think kids are just going to school on laptops now did you have Ti-85s and stuff yeah yeah we had those you know what a TI-85 is that's actually shocking I had TI-84 is back in my day the calculator yeah we used to have those

I thought that was just like a my generation thing from like I was in high school in the late 90s so okay well before 18% of the remaining audience just all tunes out on this conversation. We should probably get out of here. All right.

Thank you, Craig. Thank you, D.K. Thank you, Lorne. Thank you to everyone for listening. We will be back to you guys on Friday.