The Ringer NFL Show - Nine Gut Predictions for Week 1

Episode Date: September 10, 2020

We preview the Chiefs-Texans game, give our Super Bowl and MVP picks, and offer up our gut fantasy predictions for Week 1 before closing the show with a listener-submitted question. Keenan Allen (12:20) Aaron Rodgers (14:30) Kyler Murray (18:40) Jared Goff (24:54) Rookie RBs (27:31) Jaguars defense (29:40) Zach Ertz (34:09) Travis Kelce and George Kittle (37:08) Zane Gonzalez (38:28) Hosts: Danny Heifetz, Danny Kelly, and Craig Horlbeck Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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with it or in Colorado call 1-800 522-4-700 and today's episode is brought to you by Heineken Heineken original lager is made with pure malt and their famous A-Yeast which makes Heineken in all season all the time kind of beer. I love drinking Heineken while watching basketball.

I found that there is nothing quite like drinking a Heineken and watching LeBron James yelling at J.R. Smith. It soothes me. It calms me. So pick up a packer have it delivered today and drink responsibly. And it is footlong season at Subway, and that means making good calls all season long, starting with your game day order. Because take it from us when we say that eating too much fried food is a bad call. Like these 17 quesdias that D.K. had for breakfast today or the cheeseburger I housed yesterday at 11 a.m. 1112, to be specific.

There are repercussions for those decisions. But this week, why not make a good call instead like a sweet onion chicken terriaki from Subway, which, I mean, you can't beat the sweet onion. chicken terriaki. Do you guys do sweet onion chicken terriarchy, turkey breast, black first ham or veggie delight? I like a classic turkey on wheat. D.K. rank those. Oh, man. Rank them. DK. mock drafts. Sweet onion, terriarchy, turkey breast, black first ham,

veggie delight. Turkey breast, ham, and then the other two. You pause, so there's a tier. Okay, tier is turkey breast and black first ham. Tear drop. Another good call is ordering and paying contact free in the subway app for quick pickup or delivery. Just tap, tap, boom. Love a tap, tap, boom. Delicious foot long. This is the Ringer Fantasy Football Show.

I am Danny Heifitz here with Danny Kelly and Craig Horlebeck. It's football season. Crazy. I can't believe it works so far. You know, knock on wood. Everything's going okay. Hard knock on wood. Are you guys superstitious with that?

Like, I'm a little stitious. Oh, good one. Are you guys? Well, that's a Michael Scott. I am superstitious. A little bit. I mean, when I was growing up, like when the Giants were on defense, my mom would stand by the second panel on the refrigerator for a sack. And the dog could be out on defense.

Yeah, do you ever like get up at half time and move seats and stuff? Oh my God, all the time. The Giants won the 2007 Super Bowl because I was in my exact chair with my feet on this bench that had made when I was a kid of the Giants logo that I had brought back out for that year. The Giants won the Super Bowl entirely because of how I sat in that chair. Man. So, yes.

They owe you a debt of gratitude there. It's only weird if it doesn't work, dude. All right. So if you're doing all that and you're a Browns fan, then that's, you're clearly wrong because you've been doing something. something terribly, but it worked for me twice. Anyway, we're recording this before the Chiefs Texans game, but I guess we can still talk about it because this is going up Friday.

So yeah, the game, remember when what? This is going up today. It's going on Thursday. It's going on Thursday, baby. All right. Well, if you're listening to this after the game, then guys, like, remember the thing when that happened with the person. That was awesome.

Let's all predict the score of the game right now. 3420, Chiefs. 32 to 27 Chiefs. I'm going to go 41, 28, Chiefs. Oh, I love it. We're all going over, I guess, right? Yeah, the over this game is ridiculous because I'm just, when the game like this where the teams have had like nine months to think about their game plan,

the Chiefs always come out strong in week one. They always drop 40 in week one, I feel like. And then the Texans have been thinking about the 24-0 lead they dropped. So the Texans, I feel like this is like their waking nightmare if they lose this game again. So anyway, who knows what happened? I feel like it's like you do that thing once, like, like the Bill of Brian's like they're just going to plan for like a really killer first drive and that's all he's going to plan for like the entire offseason he's just been planning on how to score in the first drive but he has no plan for the rest of the game just so they can be up seven zero and he's like yeah see we're good it's certainly how the last one went the over under is 53 and a half in this game all right well maybe we'll do something the fandal sports book okay so we're going to do some antilitic analysis for week one gut checks these are gut beliefs we have precious few numbers back up but these are things we actually think are going to happen. happen in week one, even if we don't really have, you know, stats.

It's just the stuff you feel in your bones. You know, you've been, you've been prepping all offseason. You drafted your team. And then week one's coming. You're like, you know what? I know what's going to happen. Like just, just the gut calls. It's inevitable. But before we get into that jet, well, first, important, fun fact. Did you guys know? Wait, wait, wait. Before we do the fun fact, I want to do this game. So we're going to do a fun fact. Okay. I don't know how many shows a week, but we're going to do at least one show a week. I'm thinking we do Fridays. And I want, every time we do a fun fact,

High Fitz has to segue it to football at the end. No matter what we talk about, he has to segue to football. And now all the listeners can listen to the fun fact knowing, how's he going to do this one? Can we veto his bad segways? Yeah, he'll get a point or no point. So do you think, okay.

So what do you think I'm going to bat over under 50%? I bet you'll go a little slightly over. Yeah, I'm confident in you. I'll be like Charlie Blackman. Like I'm going to try to like, I'm going to try to hit four. 400 this season or 800. I don't know what the check.

Doing this with you for like a couple years now. You have you pull some things out of your ass. So I'm confident. Speaking of pulling things out of your ass, Dung beetles roll their little poop balls in straight lines. Oh my God. By navigating by the light of the Milky Way.

Shut the heck. I swear to God. I didn't believe this when I first saw it. This, so from that National Geographic, I'm quoting National Geographic. All of us are so animal related. Moving in... Animals are crazy, man.

Moving in a straight line is crucial to dung beetles, which live in a rough and tumble world where competition for excrement is fierce. And it goes on. A symmetrical pattern of polarized light that appears around the sun. We can't see this pattern, but insects can,

thanks to special photoreceptors in their eyes. Wow. Wow. That blew my mind. That reminds me of something, Danny. I just thought of another fact that you don't even know about. So I don't know if, you've seen the video, it's like a very famous nature show where the snow foxes jump really high

and dive head first into the snow. And like for some reason they can find this prey underneath like three or four feet of snow. Yeah, they hear it, right? They were baffled about how these foxes can find the prey under all this snow. And the theory is foxes can follow the sound of prey beneath the snow, but they search based on the angle. The sound matches the planet's magnetic field. Oh, that's crazy. That's how I found the Dung Beetle thing. Because I was reading about electro-magnetic fields last night.

I cannot believe you brought this up. Isn't this wild? There is a story and wired that ran this week that is titled like the oysters that could tell time. And the whole premise of the magazine, the article, it's so cool, is, you know, everyone knows like you have a biological clock, circadian rhythm, whatever. Basically, is that something in your genetic code? your DNA, like you can tell time innately?

Or are we like in subtle communication with the earth, the sun, the moon, in either gravity, which we don't, or electromagnetic fields, the same way sharks have a six sense and can do electricity. Are we in communication with electromagnetic fields with the premise being, we don't have evidence of this, but there were these oysters this guy took from the coast of Maine, brought him to Indiana, put him in like complete darkness for like a month. And like, and there's no reason they should know. and they changed, not only did they keep up with time,

they changed their time in line with the moon. Because if Indiana was on the coastline and the tides are controlled by the moon, they would be in the correct position if Indiana was on the ocean, which is inexplicable if they weren't in communication with some kind of electromagnetic field. Why is every animal so much more complex

and have all of these cool things that humans don't? Elon Musk's whole life is basically figuring out ways for us to do the things that like a dung beetle already does. Life is crazy. That's very meta. That's very meta, Craig. I don't even know what to say to that. Anyway, that was a lot.

I can't believe you. Yeah, electromagnetic fields, it's what, dude, oyster stealing time, dung beetles, Milky Way.

It's just absolutely nuts. Anyway, I love the fun facts. We're getting a lot of good fun facts. It's a good fun facts. Who sent that in? Did we get a name? I'm not going to lie.

I read that last night. That didn't come from the reader. I read this. And it was the most unreal fact I've heard at a while. No, Please keep emailing as fun facts at ringer fantasy football at gmail.com. We've gotten some good ones. That one was just out of control.

Okay. Let's just talk about football since it's actually football season now. Bad segue. No segue. Oh, no. Well, actually, sorry for that shit, but let's roll into the next thing here. Oh. With our guiding light.

I'll allow it. I'll allow it. Do I get a point? Yeah, you get a point. Point. It's a week one. All right. You get a point.

Yeah. Easy dub. Okay. We actually haven't done this yet, but real quick. D.K., who do you think is going to win the Super Bowl and who do you think is going to win MVP? It occurred to me, we haven't actually talked about that. This is the most boring answer, but the Chiefs and Mahomes. Those were my official predictions.

That's why we haven't talked about it. Those were my official predictions for the ringer, our prediction page. So what did you do? I picked the Saints and Mahomes. Mahomes because the MVP is, the MVP is not an individual award. We tell ourselves it is. It's a team award. 12 of the last 13 MVP winners have been the quarterback for a team that got a first round by.

And in reality, we talk about teams through the lens of people, but like the quarterback just gets the credit if they win, the quarterback gets the blame if they lose. So you want to pick a team that's going to get a first round by and the quarterback's the best player. Like Jimmy Gropel wasn't going to get it last year because the Niners' defense got the credit.

If the quarterback is the main person who succeeds or fails for the team and they get a first run by, that's the person. So it's Mahomes. I like it. The powers of deduction. Well, it's just all these awards are stupid because it's more about the narrative than reality.

I also think it's the chiefs in Mahomes. Cousin Sal had a great point on Bill's Pod. He was like, you should just bet the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl every single year because they're probably going to win like three of the next eight. Or like they're at least going to get there for three of the next eight. And their odds are like seven to one. There's seven to one odds every year they're going to be. You can bankroll the next few years.

Yeah. This year, Kevin Clark made a good point that either people expect either of the season to be, have a lot of parity because of the weirdness around COVID. I am definitely of the mind that this will have halves and have not. will get wider. Like most of life has gotten football is no different. So I think it's not an accident. I think everyone at the ringer picked the chiefs or the Ravens to make the Super Bowl.

I think that's totally accurate. And then I also, I think four of the six of us pick the Saints. I think it's the same thing. Good teams will be better. Anyway, those are my suit. I picked the Saints to beat the Ravens, but any of those three teams to me is fine. Okay. Gut calls.

Advanced antilitic gut calls. Let's just, let's go into this. So these are just things we just know we're going to happen in week one, even if, you know, there's not science. Like, we don't know if these are guided by the Milky Way or whatever. But, like, you know what? These are still things we feel. Electromagnetic fields are telling us these things.

Yeah, and we haven't talked to one another yet about these. Like, we don't know each other's good calls are yet. So, you know, you got to keep those to yourself. What is, what, what is the Earth's electromagnetic field telling you about week one? I'm sinking up under the snow that Keenan Allen is going to have 10 catches on 20 targets this week. this is such a classic like we've all were like oh philip rivers is gone is keel and all good anymore and then he's just going to have 13 catches and we're like oh keenan allen's really good yeah so to be to be clear this is the this is the hard knocks bump for me he looked

awesome in hard knocks um you know he got this big new four year 80 million dollar deal he's feeling really good about everything um there's just a lot of good vibes working in his favor also vibes i don't think that i think that this is going to be able to a game where like both teams have to throw a lot. They're going up against the Bengals. So there's a chance that Tyra Taylor is just going to look to him over and over and over again in the slot. Analytically, if we're actually talking analytics, this probably doesn't make a lot of sense. New quarterback.

You know, he could end up getting shadowed by William Jackson, which would not be good for him potentially because he's a really good corner. You know, we just don't know like anything about this offense. But for whatever reason, I'm feeling Keenan Allen. That hard knocks just made me confident enough that he's just going to go off. So, yeah, Keenan Allen, 10 catches. I think Keenan Allen's underrated. I'm serious about this. I think Keenan Allen is underrated in part because people think he's old

because he's been bald for like five years. Yeah, he's got a big beard. But he's 28 and he has the beard. He's the old man, like, honestly, the LeBron of like almost shaved head beard look. He's 28 years old. He is in the core of his prime. He's four years younger than Julio Jones. But people don't traffic because they think he's old.

And it's because he's been good for so long. Like he got good pretty quick and has just stayed good for so long that we think he must be old now. I love this take, D.K. I think this is a good. All right. There's no way this could go wrong. No, I mean, it's impossible. What could be wrong about this?

Craig, what's your week one? Are you the fox hearing the mice? Are you the oyster telling time? Are you the dung beetle rolling straight? Jesus. I don't know what I am. I'm the dung beetle because I got my shit in line, baby. I got my shit in order.

Okay. So this week we have the viking. and the Packers playing against one another, which is the battle for the 10 questions with Kyle Brandt Crown. Oh my God. Nice. Aaron Rogers versus Kurt Cousins. And Aaron Rogers is going to win.

Both these guys got something to prove. Rogers was the darling of that podcast. Wait, before you get it, do you produce this pod or is this just your company man? No, I'm just a company man. I mean, Kyle Brandt had like five episodes. Kyle Brandt said like five episodes and his two guests, Aaron Rogers and Kirk Cousins. And when Aaron Rogers did the podcast, it was the premiere episode. he was the darling of the show, right?

Made a lot of buzz, got a lot of traffic on social media. Wow, he got Aaron Rogers. And then Kirk Cousin walks in and goes, I see your, I drank four fingers of tequila after they drafted Jordan Love, and I raise you and if I die, I die, masks annoying me. And everything blew up. And they were both these massive social media things.

So now it's like, all right, who's going to win, you know? Let's put it on the field. This is a battle. I think Aaron Rogers is going to win. This is more fuel to the same. spite machine for Rogers of like, dang, I could, I had the Kyle Brant crown for two weeks and then Kirk walks in, I'm not giving him the NFC North either. So when you say win,

you mean he's going to score more fantasy points or the I think the Packers are going to win easily and we're all going to be like, oh, Aaron Rogers, we talked way too much shit about Aaron Rogers. He's like back to where he used to be. I think Rogers is saying all the right things because, but inside he, there is a fire brewing. And we're just adding more and more to it. There's been articles written about on this offseason.

Kurt Cousins. I wrote an article about him. Me, me. I wrote a huge, yeah, no, it's, I think it's just,

it's not rocket science. It's like, yeah, the coaching was worse. Yeah, the receivers around him were worse. Also, Rogers is worse.

It's not that complicated. He has the best throwing talent maybe we've ever seen until Mahomes. And so he never had to learn proper footwork. It's like, you know what I mean? It's Tom, like you wouldn't show a high school quarterback,

Aaron Rogers tape, because he throws off his back, foot, he can do whatever he wants. You show him Tom Brady. Tom Brady's fundamentals are perfect. Aaron Rogers, it's cool. Like, these best highlights never necessarily had great fundamentals. He's 36 now.

And I don't think it's insulting to Aaron Rogers to be like, his arm at 36 is not his arm at 29. I don't think that that's mean. And I think that just there are just basic throws he misses. Deky laugh because that's how old you are. But you're thinking about you're lecturing him on what's mean or not. Look, I'm just saying, I'm protecting my ass. Your arms sucks.

I'm not saying it's mean. Covering my ass from the Packers fans. I'm just saying that if you watch Aaron Rogers, he just misses basic throws when he's throwing off his back foot for no reason because he used to be able to put it exactly where he wanted on a doorknob. And now he can just get it through the doorframe

throwing a terrible footwork. And he doesn't have the basic fundamentals left. So it's like, you know, step in your throws, Aaron. And like, it'll be great. It'll be 29 again. So are you disagreeing with my gut call that Rogers is going to be good? I'm agreeing with your gut call.

Okay. How do we feel about, Kirk Cousins this year. Are we just out on that? I mean, the book on him, his whole career has just been like, can he improvise? Can he go off schedule? Like, can he? I feel like it's been five years of this of like, okay, here's your option one. Here's your option two. Here's your option three. None of those are open. Where are you on a skill of Nathan Peterson to Deshawn Watson when the play breaks down? And like he's, he just throws the ball away. And now the digs isn't there, I'm very curious

if he can spread the ball around and get people like Irv Smith Jr. more involved. I would like to see. I mean, he's getting paid a lot of money. He should take more command, honestly, just be better late in games. And hopefully that game at the end of the playoffs against the Saints was Harbinger of that. Harbinger? I'd say Harbinger. I can't say that word, right? Do you think the Vikings are a little bit, are they that happy with Kirk anymore? You think they're like, this is the right move we made? Yeah, I think so. He's plannedness personified. And if they don't get to the second round of the playoffs, like, you know, I think that the Saints win they had was the first moment, one of like three moments, Vikings fans have been like, yes, Kirk is the guy.

It's really been few and far between where Vikings fans are excited about the guy. All right. Let's keep rolling here. Hi, Fitz. I believe you're up. Okay. I got check. I think the Cardinals beat the 49ers this year, this week.

And I think that Kyler Murray looks unreal. I think the Kyler Murray is one of the two highest scoring quarterbacks of the week. And the, the antelitic thing to me of this is that's underrated is, you remember the Levar ball? Like when he went on that show and was like, I could beat Michael Jordan one of one. and they're like, are you serious? And he's like, I've never lost. Never lost at one-on-one. Like, and he just kept screaming, never-lawed.

Kyler Murray, wait, can you play that clip, Craig? One-on-one, never lost. Never lost one-on-one. Everybody lost one-on-one. Never lost one-on-one. Kyler Murray has like never lost in his life before until last year. This dude lost more games last season than like the rest of his life combined. Like, Kyler Murray's a high school quarterback was 40.

43 and 0 at the highest level of Texas state. Like, Kyler Murray might be the best quarterback in the history of high school, Texas football. He won three championships, 43 and O. Then he went to college, went 12 and 2, including a loss to Alabama. And then he went to the Cardinals, and he said before his rookie year, they were like, are you worried about losing? He's like, I don't think about losing. And then during the season when, like, again, it's like three losses.

He's lost three games total since he was like 13 years old. And he said this quote that I just keep thinking about in December. after their worst loss of the season. He said, quote, it's just a disgusting feeling. I'm sure you were disgusted watching it. I was disgusted being in it. It's not a good feeling.

You just don't want to have that anymore, end quote. And like, I've been thinking about the lot because we always talk about the jump from year one to year two. And we always talk about like it's trees. Like they just grow.

It's no, it's the product of hard work and effort and like how much effort guys are putting into the off season now they know how to be a pro. But you have to be driven by something and driven by like pettiness or like, you know,

the haters. or whatever, disgust, underrated motivating factor. Like, like Kyler Murray having never lost and now tasting failure for really the first time in his adult life on top of what we're already talking about with Cliff Kingsbury and the offense being better, better protection. Hopkins is there.

I'm just, and also the Cardo's played the Niners really good twice last year. I think the car, I think Kyler, I love his offseason. I love it. I was actually going to add that. It's like, he had two pretty solid games against 49ers. And the 40, if you remember, the 49ers defense last year was like elite, one of the best defenses in the NFL. He had four touchdowns, no picks,

completed like 71% of his passes in those games. He was like pretty damn good. I mean, he didn't throw for a ton of yards, but still. Cardinals looked better against the Niners than the Chiefs did. Like, the Cardinals were really good against the 49ers last year. Kyler's definitely like the darling quarterback pick this year.

I mean, like everything lines up. Like he's now year two with his coach. Like, they added DeAndre Hopkins. You know, they have a strong running game now. Like, it's all coming together. I didn't like him for fantasy this year because he was, the hub side was so already built into his like his draft stock.

But to be clear, there are going to be weeks where he's really fun. And I think that this is actually one of them. Two of his four highest, two of his five highest scoring games last year against 49ers. He's probably third on the like all fun league for fantasy quarterbacks. It's probably Mahomes, Omar and then him. Oh, yeah. Yes. I think that's exactly.

And Russ. Russ is a boring person. But Russ is, I think, the most magical person though, or underrated magical person. They have a fun offense because it's like deep shot. Well, it's DIY. The Sealks are DIY. It's just Russell's just like, I'm just going to do it up until my own. It's just, it's unreal.

All right. Kyler's magical. You know what else is magical, guys? You have to guess. It's not rhetorical. Heineken. Heineken. He figured it out.

Today's episode is brought to you by Heineken. Heineken would like to remind you that it's time for seasonal beers again. That's right. If you thought a cold, crisp summer Heineken and something, just wait until you taste the Heineken fall lineup. Is it a new product? No. because Heineken doesn't need to change.

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all the time kind of beer. So pick up a pack or get it delivered, whatever your style, and please drink responsibly. And today's show is also proud to be presented by Fandil Fantasy. Sports are finally back. NBA playoffs, hockey playoffs,

baseball, golf, and more, and football is here. I mean, we're pretty jazzed. Football's back. It's been a while. Yeah, I mean, the last three months of our working careers have been leading up to this very moment. Do you guys get that butterfly, like the butterflies in your stomach for each game? I still do. I don't. Craig, yeah, you just, you just don't care.

I got butterflies like when I played football. I don't think I've ever gotten butterflies. Well, I got butterflies in the Giants. You get butterflies before, like, kickoff week one? Yeah, I think it's fun. Not like a nervous butter. Not like nervous butterflies. That's very sweet. Are those butterflies or is that the electromagnetic field of the earth?

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Fandul more ways to win. And don't forget the free ringer mega contest where you pick five games every week. And that's fandle.com slash mega contest. DK. What are you feeling for week one? What's another gut call? So I'm all over Jared Goff this week. Last year, if you remember, he had a pretty disastrous week one.

I think that's going to flip on its head this week. I'm expecting a lot of offense. They're going up against the Cowboys, which I think is actually a really fun game. A lot of offense in that game. That game's just a four-hour commercial for SoFi Stadium. Yeah. They spent $5 billion to build that stadium.

The next most expensive state, it's literally more than twice as expensive as the next most expensive stadium. Yeah. Jerry Jones, was like, yeah, sure, we'll bring the Cowboys there. Yeah, I'm from Los Angeles. I brought the Rams here. Do you think Jerry's going to be like a little bit jealous?

No, Jerry shepherded the Rams two. Jerry Powerbrokered the whole Rams Chargers deal. And part of it was like, yeah, sure. When you build that stadium, the Cowboys will play week one Sunday to football. It's a commercial. I'm dead serious. Can you imagine paying $5 billion for stadium and then no one showing up for the opener? Yeah, that's brutal.

Yeah, it's not a deal. This is a stat from J.J. Zacherson from Numberfire. A reminder that the closest recent cop we had of this 20, 2020 NFL season is the 2011 season when the lockout ended in late July. Week one saw 12 games at the over. Strongly believe defense is going to suck this week. And I'm with him. It's just really hard to build the type of communication,

the chemistry you need on defense to be, and to get into shape you need to be on defense to really battle some of these good offenses in the NFL. I think both of these offenses are going to go off in this game. The over under is 51.5. It's going to be a shootout. both teams have continuity on their offense, play caller, QB receivers,

and I think they both have a lot of offense, like explosive potential. So yeah, Goff is kind of like everyone's forgotten guy, but I think this week he has a chance to go off. I'm not going to lie. I'm still just blown away, but you're saying that we could just parlay

like 10 overs together and make like a million dollars. I know, maybe that's the move. Are you serious? Forget Jared Goff. Like, let's make some Fandle sports book, like, no, seriously, 12 overs,

over in week one of 2011? Yeah, that's what he says. That's what Zach Rosen said. Let's talk to Warren Sharp, baby. Let's get a bankroll going here. I think like 60% of overs hit in the season or something crazy. Okay, we'll talk about this later. But that's crazy.

It's good enough for week one. Do you buy that though, that like defense is at a disadvantage overall? Absolutely. Absolutely. Because at 100% because defenses have to react. Offences act. Defenses react. Yeah.

That's just harder when there's less practice. So, Craig, do you have another gut check for this week? Gut call? Antilitic. Yeah, we do this every year, but the majority of the rookie running backs are just going to disappoint the hell out of us week one. Yeah. I'm already dreading this.

This is good. I'm already dreading this. So this is how I feel about it. You know, we get all excited because it's like new faces. It's like, you know, you compare class schedules with your friends when you start a new grade. Oh, I have classes with you or I've never had a class with you before you get all excited. But you know who you're actually going to sit next. to when the seating chart comes out, Carl.

Weird Carl. And you've been stuck with Carl for the last... The last three years in English, you're stuck with Carl, Stephen Glansberg, and your best friend is sitting across the room. We just heard about a Carl yesterday in the news. Marlon Mack on the Colts is a Carl. We got all excited about Jonathan Taylor. And then Frank Wright comes out and goes,

oh, well, Jonathan Taylor's only there to spell Marlon Mack. And we're like, great. Oh, AJ Dylan, he's third on the depth chart. Oh, J.K. Dobbins, he's fourth on the depth chart. Just soul crushing. Beware of all the Carls this year. There's a lot. Mark Ingram.

Well, I think the issue with this is Clyde Edwards-Ollarous. You don't think he's going to have a big game? Well, I think there's the exceptions are like the Josh Jacobs of last year, where they really get drafted into a situation. And Clyde got lucky because Damien Williams opted out pretty much. But there are a few exceptions, but there's just this massive group of Carl's every year where Carrey-on-Johnson, Malcolm Brown, Marlon Mac, Mark Ingram. They're going to screw all of us.

If Adrian Peterson out touches DeAndre Swift in Week 1, I swear DECAL will be very kind to you. I won't even bring it up. I'm telling you, Peyton Barber is going to get 15 carries this week, and we're all going to be pissed because Antonio Gibson is doing anything. Because he's the early down back, because he's the starting running back for Washington. I think this is a good one.

I'm already dreading. Everyone's going to be all excited to start DeAndre Swift, Cam Acres, not going to work. Yeah, I think you're right. Okay, so to recap so far, Craig says the rookies will suck in week one. The rookie running backs will suck in week one. I said the Kyle Murray's, they're going to beat the Niners,

and he'll be really good because he hates losing. What was yours, D.K.? I already forgot. Goff. Goff. Goff's the guy. What's your first one?

Keenan Allen is going to have 10 catches. Okay. Wonderful. That's so specific. Mine is, I love it. Mine is, I think, that the Colts are going to shred

the Jaguars this year, this week. And the takeaway people are going to have is, oh my God, add Philip Rivers, add Paris Campbell. And the takeaway you should have you want to start all your players against the Jaguars this year.

Because think about all the cliches of being on a team, not just an NFL team, like any team you had in your childhood, like shared sacrifice, accountability, teamwork, all sacrificing for a common goal where you can achieve more together

than if you could than you were as individuals. The Jaguars have none of that. Nothing. none of that. Like at the pro level with grown-ass men being paid money

to do this for living, it is just assumed that they're all buying in and to some degree they all have the us against the world like they're together. It's all they have.

That is just an assumed premise. I don't, the Jaguars may not have that in a way I can never remember hearing before a season. I can, like the quotes that have come out, we already knew Jalen Ramsey called, like things that have happened this month,

this month or September. So last month, August, Ronnie Harrison, who was a safety when he got traded, said, quote, I'm so relieved to be out of Jacksonville and around a new team who wants one common goal. Thank you, God. Yonnik and Gakway said, I really, God. He said it he was traded this month. I was like, I'm not going to talk about it. But in April, he said, I really want to be part of a team that has great culture and winning is a habit.

I don't want to be part of a team that losing is a norm or anything of that nature. And then he put his money where his mouth is last month. He took a $5 million. pay cut this year to go to a different team. He was like, I will literally rather work somewhere else for five million less dollars. Then Leonard Fournette said, I've been playing the same game for 25 years. I mean, for the first time in my life, I really have a quarterback. So that's eye-opening for me.

And then this month, Jalen Ramsey said that the day he got traded from the Jaggores was, quote, probably one of the best days of my life. I can't believe there's so many examples. That all happened in the last five weeks. that is astonishing. My reaction is I want to just poo-poo this whole argument, but it is striking.

And here's the thing. Guys are just like, fuck that. I know it sounds like I'm meming a little, but in all seriousness, like, there is something to be said for like, when everything goes virtual

and you're spending less time together, it's like existing dynamics kind of like accelerate. Like, you know what I mean? Like people who are, and the Jaguars, when people are just openly like,

I hate this, I think that affects something. And football at its core, you're asking people to, like, put their lives on the line. Like, people are, like, hitting each other. Like, you're risking your physical safety in multiple ways this year. This is a problem. And I think it's astonishing to hear a football team so many guys in one month be like, I hate playing there. And I think that, I don't know.

I've never really gone into a season questioning if any of the teams want to be there until this Jaguars team. I think that they're going to play hard, though. I mean, these guys have their careers around the line. You can't not play hard at football. Yeah. What are you going to do? And look, again, important to note, the guys I'm quoting are gone. So, like, the guys there might be like, screw those guys.

But I just, I am so against the Jaguars this year. And I think that they're going to get wrecked by the Colts. And I think that this season, they're going to be a team you can target because they're probably the least talented team in the league. And I think that you're going to be able to rack a point streaming against Jacksonville. Well, and what do you think that, like, the conversations are like in the locker room in Jacksonville after reading all of these comments from Jalen Ramsey and Gokway and all these people, Are they just like secretly like, damn, man, this does suck.

Well, I think a lot of it was like residual stuff from Tom Coughlin who was just tried to be a hard ass, but without a day-to-day interaction. Because he tried to be a hard ass from the GM, which you can't do. He fined Lenniferne at $100,000 for like sitting on the bench when he was inactive, like crazy stuff. But they fired him, but they still have Dave Caldwell, who was the GM and they still have Doug Marone, who was the head coach. So it's like, it's changed, but it also will see. So I just, I don't, that's a lot of, I don't know, it's wild.

I agree that they are going to be a target. Kind of like how, remember how the Cardinals were kind of like a target for tight end, or definitely a target for tight ends every week last year. I can see the Jags being that team this year for multiple positions. So, D.K., last gut call. My last gut call is Zach Ertz is going to have a middle finger game to the team this week, to the Eagles. There's a little bit of bad blood happening right now.

So this is Thursday. Today, Ertz came and talked to the media. He said, I want to play my whole career in Philadelphia, but I'm not sure the feeling is mutual. Quote, I'm an emotional guy when it comes to football. It's been frustrating at times. It's been difficult. I said all along, I want to be here for the long run.

I don't know for sure if that feeling is mutual. I'm going to play this year like it's my last year. So he's going all out. He's going to give this front office, the little finger. The front office actually, the negotiations went bad per Ian Rappaport. negotiations between Eagles and Zachards came to an abrupt halt when Philly made an offer that had less guaranteed money than their original offer. So they kind of, they're like low-balling him essentially. And so he's pissed in this specific situation this week, too, like Jalen Rager is still banged up.

He's probably not going to play a big role. He's going to get funneled. I think he's getting a lot of targets. So I think Zachers is going to have a big game this week. No, Alshon Jeffrey. Miles Sanders is beat up. And they're going against Washington, who's back seven is very, very, young and lacks talent.

The front seven is very good, or the front line is very good. But I think that they could definitely exploit that back seven. I think it's funny. It's you reminded me of our colleague Jonathan Sharks wrote a great piece this week on the Milwaukee Bucks and Janus having more power than he thinks. And basically he was explaining him NBA coaches or middle managers who really just have to, you know, if they're beholden to Janus, whatever Janus can dictate his minutes and things. And ironically, there are actually NFL quarterbacks who actually sometimes have to deal

with the responsibilities of NBA. coaches in that if a receiver or a star player wants more touches the way NBA player might want more minutes like they can dictate that sometimes like even star quarterbacks like Eli Manning have discussed like you have to just distribute the ball in certain ways sometimes now you can't really predict that too often it's like we can't come into a week and be like oh yeah this guy's unhappy to the contract and he's going to tell but Zachert's this week 100% might go to Carson Wentz and be like I need 12 catches this week like I need to dominate and especially this is the perfect storm of other people are hurt they really

really do need to rely on him. The game plan will be around him. And Washington seems like it's going to be really bad. Like, this isn't just hot noise. Like, I agree with you. Like, I really think Zachertz will probably talk to Carson once about this. Yeah, this is a great call. And like, Zacherts isn't a diva, but like you do see this happen with divas. I mean, like, Antonio Brown and Ben Rathesberger. Like, it was a thing where Ben was like, I knew I needed to give Antonio the ball or he would get mad. I think Odella had a little bit of that. It's, you know, we've talked about how there's like personal agendas at play with like the Bill Brian, David Johnson thing.

I think Wence is behooved to keep Ertz around. He's been like his most reliable target for several years now. So, I mean, I love Dallas Goddard too, but like Wence is going to want to keep him around too. So I think, you know, all that put together. Let's let's see how I play it. I think that's a really good one. And now they think about it in an Ertz touchdown this week is probably a really good bet. Craig, do you have another gut check?

Yeah, like I do every year, I'm going to immediately regret not drafting Travis Kelsey or George Kittle. Yes. Kittle, dude, Kittle is going to go off. Week one's going to conclude, and they're each going to have, you know, 132 yards and one or two touchdowns. And my dumb ass tight end that I spent like $14 on, Hayden Hurst, Evan Ingram. One of them will pull a hammy, the other got five targets. And I'll be like, God damn it.

Dude, Kittle has had touchdown regression, positive touchdown regression coming for like two years. And it's all going to come to a head this week. Every year we trick ourselves into being like, you know what? I'm going to take this tight end who I, think might be good. And then it's like Travis Kelsey has 100 yards every single week. Yeah. Especially this week. George Kittles playing Arizona. Kittle against the funnel, the funnel tight end defense for the for the Cardinals. Plus they, like, Ayuk and Debo have been kind of like have been really banged up all camp. Yeah. I do it every year. I talk myself into the analytics. Oh, you're not

supposed to draft a tight end early. It doesn't make any sense. And then you watch Kittle and you're like, God, I don't enjoy having Irv Smith. You should have listened to your heart, even though it's buried beneath all that snow and ice. You should have listened to your heartbeat, like the Fox. You're kind of wasting all your good segways here. Actually, keep it coming. There's no waste. I'm like Kyler Murray. I don't think about losing. It's a bottomless pit of segways. Speaking of which, punted in the next one, Arizona. So usually I don't draft a kicker or I cut them and I just add a running back because, you know, something always happens like the weekend

before the season and like, oh, like, oops, I, Dalvin Cook's holding out after all. And like, I have Alex Madison. You know what I mean? You never know. So, But now I have to cut my kicker. I cut the guy and add a kicker. And I've put a lot of thought into this. I think this is the first time we've mentioned kicking on the show. So you have a kicker you like this week?

No, the season. Oh. And I'm not picking Butker, Will Lutz are the people who are definitely rostered, Justin Tucker. I'm picking someone who's probably available. And it's,

I've given a lot of thought to this. And by a lot, I mean, 20 minutes max. But I'm going, I'm going, Zane Gonzalez for the Arizona Cardinals. Okay. For first of all, I like it because underrated offense could be a good team, but also my-in-dor Red Zone.

It's kind of like horse racing. It's like the fools bet on the horses. It's more people bet on the jockeys. No, it's at the Kentucky Derby. Yeah. No, I mean, just in general, the Cardinals are indoors. Yeah, exactly. But also, you know, Arizona, it's a dry heat.

I'm sure that helps. I don't know if it's a fact, but it sounds true. Sure. And then it's just, I don't know, he's named Zane. I love Zane. Isn't there some famous person named Zane? Billy Zane. This is a cool name.

Zane from One Direction. Yeah, that one. Listen to your friend Billy Zane. He's a cool guy. I think Zane Gonzalez. So that's my official kicker recommendation. So it took you 20 minutes to come up with. Zane is a cool name in Arizona's hot.

It's dry hot. Yes. That's the dry heat, guys. How many kickers? Now, that might be a mistake because he's kicking in the 49ers this week and that game literally might get canceled because of poor air quality from fires. What is? The 18th show of the Ringer Fantasy.

football show or something like that. And all of our research has concluded to the last point before week one is Hyphitz has a sleeper of a kicker. That was the crescendo. Yeah, thank you for that. Zane Gonzalez, kicker for the Cardinals. How many kickers can you name in the NFL? That would be a fun game.

Should we do this or would we just reveal that you don't really know anything about kickers? They all change teams so easily. I don't know where anybody is nowadays. There's only 40 kickers and they play musical chairs. Yeah. Every year's only... Zerline is still in the NFL. It's like Bachelor in Paradise.

They're just like swapping in and out. I got no idea what's going on. They're on the circuit. Yeah, they're on the, they're on the circuit. They just, you know.

And you both still, they all know each other, but they also are in competition with each other because they all want the same jobs, but they've no one else to talk to about their stuff. It's a whole fraternity. Yeah. It's bizarre.

We should, we should get a kicker out here once. I'm looking at, I'm looking at the Patriots step chart right now. It doesn't, they don't have a place kicker. I'm sure it's just like a, like he's just,

I'm sure they have a defensive lineman who can kick. I to this day have no idea why they haven't taught a quarterback how to punt. Ben Rathusberger. But like every time, like, you're telling me Cam Newton couldn't figure out a punt every fourth down? Did that happen with the high school football game that was on ESPN and everyone watched because they were bored? And then the kicker quarterback was the punter. Oh, I don't know. But like, why isn't that a thing?

Like, I feel like you could really give yourself an advantage. If we want to go into why is that a thing, I actually think football would be a better sport without kicking or punting. I mean, I agree. All right. Hey, guys, foot long season is at Subway. They make it easy to make a good call on food. So here's a little segment called Good Call,

bad call where we'll look at some of the good and bad plays from last week. This week's bad call. Again, DK. Too many casadias. That was a mistake. You got to chill with those, my dude. Stop eating the cassadias. You know what cheese does, man.

What kind of cheese do you put in the casadia? Mexican cheese. Yeah. Mozarella loki is really pretty good, too, because it's not oily. Well, you can get mozzarella on your subway sandwich. Damn straight.

This week's a good call. Chicken, sweet onion terriaki. You throw a little mozzarella on there if you want. Another bad call from last week. Craig, what's a bad call you had last week? I had straight up just four hot dogs on Labor Day and I didn't get it after that. Jesus.

You guys ever done a 9-9? What's that? No. Nine hot dogs and nine beers and a nine-in-basket game. Wow. That's a mistake. That's a bad call.

That was one of my friends did that as the punishment for losing, for being last place in the fantasy league. It's a bad call. It's a very bad call. But a good call is a Subway sandwich. Again, Sweet Onion chicken terriaki's mind. D.K. says that the top tier is turkey breast and black forest ham.

You love the top tiers. I mean, I like them all. I like them all. Getting a free foot long when you buy two at participating subway restaurants, great call. Please, everyone, make good calls this week.

Order and pay contact free in the subway apps for quick and easy pickup or delivering game day or any day. day. It's footlong season at Subway. Eat fresh. Freshly prepared in front of you. I have some friends who are in a different league and they do this thing every year where they basically, the guy who won the year before that comes up with how they decide the draft order. And they do a competition. And this year they did the 8-6-4-2 challenge. 8-6-4-2? So they had to eat eight donuts. They had to complete eight donuts, six beers, four miles on a scooter and two shots.

Like a razor scooter? Yes, a razor scooter. And the first one to complete all of those wins. And you have to hold them on your person. So like all of that's in a backpack. Like if you drink the beers, eat the donuts, do the shots, you'll be lighter for your two-mile scooter. Beer and scooter?

Is that even legal? They were up at like a lake. They were away. It was all right. That's fun. I like that. This is... I think quietly, secretly the hardest part of that would be eating

ate donuts as quickly as you can't. I know, that's so much sugar. Oh, my God. I don't like donuts because donuts, it's like I can rationalize most of the bad calls I make, bad food, except donuts. I can never justify to myself, oh yeah, you should eat this fried cake in the morning. Donuts are still good. I've yet to spin a web of lies in my own head that can make sense to me on that. All right. John Ballas wrote to us, I reached a bit with my last few draft picks and picked Jerry Judy and Henry Ruggs in the eighth and ninth rounds of my Dynasty League. I also have those two players in my dynasty league. So great job, John. But that's left in me a bit of quandary for my last starting spot,

which is a flex spot in a PPR league. Who would you feel more comfortable starting week one? Judy Ruggs or should go someone on a waivers look for someone? So I think this is an interesting question because you've got the Broncos and the Raiders, which both have gone the same tact of like we're going to just blatantly rip off the chief's plan to have fast players and hopefully we'll win the division by copying them, which, you know, sure, okay. But they're also really interesting, Matt.

I think this is actually an interesting question of one. I talked earlier about the Jaguars being. a team this season of like they might just be awful and you want to stream against them this week or every week this season. The other one's the Panthers. And the Raiders are playing the Panthers this week. D.K., what do you think about Ruggs versus Carolina? Yeah, I mean, I was, I was just going to say exact same thing. It seems like a pretty good matchup for them. The team starters at corner are Dante Jackson, who got benched at times last year for apparently freelancing and coverage, giving up too many big plays. So that sounds pretty damn interesting

to me going up against a guy like Ruggs. The other starter, Troy Pride Jr., potentially. you know, they got, they got a bunch of young guys in that secondary. We don't, you know, exactly know, what we're going to get from them. I don't think it's going to be a good secondary. Danny, you've been talking, like, all offseason how the Panthers are just going to have the worst defense in the NFL. I mean, the list of guys that left that defense over the offseason is incredible. And obviously, Luke Keakley is the big one.

But, yeah. So, again, it's just important note. I mean, again, I think people were doing other things over the off season. So, apologies, like, please don't feel any shame if you didn't remember the Panthers gave Matt Rule, the Baylor head coach, a seven years. contract for like $8.5 million a year. He's basically being paid more than like most head coaches other than like Belichick and Sean Payton and Andy Reed.

And it's really something. Like it's a rebuild. Matt Rule is a rebuilder. He saved the program at Temple. He saved the program at Baylor. Like he has been rebuilding programs and he's on for a multi-year project. And this year is basically a tryout to make the team next year. And their defense is just abysmal.

Like they have young, inexperienced people and the season is about getting those guys reps and it's going to get ugly at first. And the Raiders are fast. The other thing to keep in mind with this matchup in particular is I think both teams are stronger on offense than defense. I don't have a ton of faith in the Raiders defense, especially they're sort of young, secondary still kind of coming together. And so the Carolina offense might quietly be pretty fun to watch, pretty good under,

Teddy Bridgewater and this new scheme that they got going. So I could see this being a higher scoring game. The overrunner I saw yesterday was 47. a half so it's like upper third like a pretty high number um yeah i mean it could just be kind of like a high scoring game lots of yards rugs like we talked about previously he's not just a deep guy you know he's going to catch a lot of screens a lot of little slants he has that ability to take a short pass and make a huge play out of it that was like kind of his mo at alabama touchdown machine so yeah i like i like the rugs one i mean i actually honestly i like both i would i'd be fine starting judy as a flex

i think smart i also think because of the limited practice time we talk all the time about lines will be affected. It's also an interesting year to target bad cornerback groups. Like the Falcons have, the Vikings don't have a cornerback over 23. The Falcons, I also don't think they have one, or at least one's getting significant playing time over 22, 23 years old. The Panthers are kind of, like just bad cornerbacks is a really intriguing thing to target, especially when it's like a guy like Ruggs who could go off. So. Ruggs is a really, really great pick. I feel like he's had a surge in the fantasy community in the last like two weeks and everyone's figuring out that he actually might be the best rookie

wide receiver to pick this year going into your drafts and I think he was probably going third or fourth. Yeah. There was a stigma around him in the dynasty community and the draft community. You know, he didn't have a breakout age that we've talked about because he never had a breakout season where he was like, you know, 20% of the team's passing yards and all that. He's small, which is a concern to a lot of people. He's kind of like wiry, but yeah. All right, before we get out of here real quick, you guys think Tom Brady's going to be good

in the bucks this week or no? The Saints going to wreck him or the two best quirey? quarterbacks in football going to be in their 40s. It's a really good defense. I think he's going to be efficient. Well, Mike Evans might not play too. Yeah, that doesn't help. Scotty Miller season?

You guys got him. Does Scotty Miller know? DK., I have a listener question from me, Craig, right now. If Mike Evans doesn't play, do I start, I know this sounds crazy, do I start Cam Acres or Scottie Miller? I mean, I would still start Acres, but. Okay. I don't know.

If Evans doesn't play. you'd rather start this is no i guess that's juicy i like this you'd rather start scotty miller i think that acres is guaranteed well not guaranteed nothing is guaranteed but he's gonna he's gonna get more opportunities um scotty miller it wouldn't surprise me if he got like he had like a like two or three big catches but i don't know if he's going to get pepper targets you know what i mean i just don't want it to be the the second quarter and cam acres has three touches and they're like they're looking to get him going in the second half and then malcolm brown gets a red zone carry and then we're just like this sucks.

It is written because you just said it. I know. Trust your spidey sense. So the main point of this episode as we're going to start sit season is, you know, same way we tell you to like just get a player.

Like we've got a lot of questions from people being like that I reached this person in the draft. And the rule is like if you're going to, you want a player, get the player. Like it's a game. Like get the team you want.

Similar approaches starts it. You can build a logical case all you want. But if you just have a spiky sense that some player is going to go off, you want to play that person? Go for it. There is scientific evidence. You know what? You might have more extra sensory perception

whether it's all the way down into your genetic code or you're connecting literally looking up to the Milky Way and finding a guiding light. Believe in yourself. It's the Malcolm Gladwell book, Blink. You know what I mean? Just go with your gut. Look up to the stars and

they'll tell you what to do with your shit. All right. We'll be back next week. Guys, seasons here. We'll be here on Monday. Oh, so we should probably explain this. We're going to be coming to you guys on Mondays for waiver ads. We're going to be about more big picture, big player stuff on Wednesdays. I think those will be fun. And the Fridays, we're going to be talking, looking at the week. Looking forward. Yeah. So, yeah, previews, reviews and some fun stuff. So thank you guys for sticking with us, the whole off season, preseason that didn't really happen. But before the season, it's been a lot of fun. We really

appreciate everyone listening. And it's going to be fun now the season's here. Football is actually going. So I wanted to add real quick before we sign off. Thank you for everyone who's email. We apologize if we didn't get to your emails. We actually were flooded with a lot of emails and we appreciate that. So we just didn't, we weren't able to get to all of your questions about, you know, drafts and stuff. But thank you again for emailing. People from all over too. Yeah. Germany, Malaysia is cool. Ringer Fantasy Football at gmail.com. Thank you to everyone for listening. D.K., Craig, thank you. Thank you to Dung Beatles. And no, really, thank you to everyone for listening. You guys are the best. Peace. All right, guys, we made some bad calls and good calls

this week. But remember, it's full long season at Subway. So let's try to keep a mainly You can start by grabbing a delicious, freshly prepared footlong with all your favorite toppings. And you can order ahead in the Subway app for contact-free ordering and payment to make pickup or delivery quick and easy. So forget about that fried, greasy food and grab a tasty footlong on game day or on any day because it is foot-long season at Subway.