The Ringer NFL Show - Our 2021 NFL Prop Bet Picks

Episode Date: September 3, 2021

We preview the 2021 NFL season by offering up our favorite season-long player prop bets of the year. QB Matt Stafford, Rams (2:00) QB Kyler Murray, Cardinals (5:16) WR Amari Cooper, Cowboys (7:21) WR CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys (8:49) WR Keenan Allen, Chargers (10:32) WR Justin Jefferson, Vikings (12:23) WR Terry McLaurin, Washington (16:16) WR Tyler Lockett, Seahawks (17:03) WR Antonio Brown, Bucs (19:35) QB Jalen Hurts, Eagles (20:36) EDGE Joe Tryon, Bucs (24:46) QB Justin Herbert, Chargers (26:04) RB D'Andre Swift, Lions (30:18) RB Najee Harris, Steelers (35:17) RB Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys (37:41) QB Sam Darnold, Panthers (40:15) RB Mike Davis, Falcons (43:37) RB Javonte Williams, Broncos (45:51) Listener emails (47:12) Check out The Ringer's 2021 Fantasy Football Draft Guide here. Email us at [e-mail]. Hosts: Danny Heifetz, Danny Kelly, and Craig Horlbeck Producer: Craig Horlbeck Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey everybody, this is Warren Sharp, NFL analyst over at Sharp Football Analysis. I want to welcome you to The Ringer Gambling Show. Join me on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays each week during the NFL season with guests Chris Vernon, Ben Solac, and Joe House to guide you through the NFL betting landscape. We'll be talking spreads, game totals, parlays, player props, futures, and much, much more. Be sure to follow the Ringer Gambling Show on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to the Ringer Fantasy Football Show. My name is Danny Hyfitz.

I'm joined by Danny Kelly and Craig Coralbeck. Today, we're going through season-long prop bets. There are prop bets. We're using FanDuel, Sportsbook, and we're going to go through the bets, and we're going to say the ones that we actually like, these are not things we're just thrown out there. These are ones we are ones that we believe. They represent how we feel about players this year,

but also things that we actually think will be profitable. Real hard-earned capital. R-O-I, baby. Skin in the game. Skin in the game. Skid in the game. We're also going to be doing this every Friday. So we're giving our season longs for right now.

But every Friday, we're going to be coming to you. We got prop bets for the weekend ahead. And we're just going to have, again, it's going to be, what, an indicator, a benchmark? So I was going to say, sure. But it's how we feel about players, but also things we actually think we'll hit. It's adding a little paprika, a little red pepper on start sit, essentially. You know what I mean? It's the guys we like, but this time we're putting some money on it.

Beautiful. Okay. Let's just get to the pepper. What an intro. Do you even like pepper? We're not good. I don't actually care if you like paprika. I think paprika has its time in place.

Yeah, okay. Let's get to the pepperyka. Bold. Just get to the chase. Get to the paprika. Give us your top of the list. What's the prop bet you got circled with the most circles? I was perusing the list of like most passing yards, most rushing yards, most, you know, receiving touchdowns, blah, blah, blah.

One that stood out to me was most passing yards, Matt Stafford, 14 to one. So a couple of things to, you know, a couple things to. think about the Rams, number one, finished fourth and fifth, respectively, in 2019 and 2018, in passing yards in the NFL, with Jared fucking Goff at quarterback. Okay?

They fell off the rail, like, everything fell off the rails last year. Goff lost his confidence. They had to do checkdowns. Like, they had to do all this stuff to, like,

try and just keep this offense running and keep it going. Like duct tape on the carburetor, all that stuff. I mean, that's coming from someone who absolutely knows nothing about cars. So I'm sure people like,

Can you put duct tape on a car? Sure, car people are probably just, like, seething right now, but anyways, it's a bad. It's a bad metaphor. Anyway, this year, actually, I think it's going to be game on for this passing offense, like, more close to what we remember, if you remember seeing in, like, 2018, when the Rams were just, like, changing the NFL and everybody who was remotely close, that Craig would have got a head coaching job in 2018, because he's so close with McVeigh now. And I think we're going to see something closer to that this year.

I think that, number one, staffer. is a perfect fit for this offense. He's always been really good in play action. We saw this last year. When Darrell Bevel started doing more play action, he was really able to push the ball down the field. I think it's going to be that times, you know, 11 this year. And so I'm really excited about that.

I think they have really good receivers. They have a lot of depth that receiver. I think Stafford is going to kind of like open up the offense and open up the whole playbook. And also this Cam Acres injury, the uncertainty we have at the running back position there. I think that's all going to kind of combine, and I just think the Rams are going to pass a lot,

and Stafford has that outside shot of leading the NFL in passing yards. I may or may not have already a month ago invested some money in Matt Stafford MVP in Rams' best record in the NFL school. McVeigh-Sush Fund. The D-K, so Matt Stafford's over-under, which obviously just pays like one-to-one, is 4,500 passing yards. So you would smash.

the over is what you're saying and then also do yeah yeah unfortunately i don't think you can parlay props like this but if you could that would be the move so he's passed so his career high in passing yards he's he passed for 5,000 38 yards in 2011 4967 in 2012 he's hovered or he's hovered in like the four thousands the last few years he didn't play full season in 2019 um and his career low is 3,777 so i don't know i mean i'm just looking at at this, like, I think he's going to have, like, this renaissance in L.A. He's going to look closer to, like, what we saw early on in his career

where he's just slinging it. My only concern is the Rams hype has taken, like, a lot of the odds out of 14 to 1. Are there any other, like, good ones on the quarterback list that draw your eye? I had, I was thinking at 1. I'm curious, I was looking at Joe Burrow 38 to 1 to lead the NFL and pass the yards. I think that one's good.

Number one, because they're just going to have to pass a ton. But I am a little bit worried about his knee and just, like, all that. Like, maybe they're going to... But 38 to 1. Yeah, that's absolutely Are there any other long shots on the passing yardish? Burroughs leaped out to me. The one that caught my eye, Kyler Murray, 41 to 41, what is it?

41 to 1. To 1. Yeah. It was like 41 nil. 41 to nothing. 41 to 1. So last year he finished 8th and pass attempts. The Cardinals run the fastest neutral situation offense.

They're going to run really fast again this year. They're going to have a lot of plays. By fast, you don't mean running fast. You mean like they're running plays with a lot of time on the clock? hurry up, they hurry up, they don't huddle a lot of the time. In terms of like the number of seconds between each snap, the Cardinals are consistently under Kingsbury, like one of the fastest offenses. And so that obviously translates to more plays, in theory, more yards.

I think if Murray can take a jump, and this is why it's sort of a long shot, a longer shot bet, is because he wasn't like super efficient last year as a pastor. But if he can make a jump this year, they got AJ Green, who I know he looked like dust last year, but he's gotten rave reviews in training camp this year. They got Rondell Moore. You know, all the other depth guys on their team kind of have another year under their belts. I just think there's a chance that we see like this huge jump from Kyler Murray and they're going to like just throw a ton. So I kind of like that one. Air raid and gauge, maybe. We'll see. I like that one a lot. I think 41 to one for Kyler makes a lot of sets.

I like that. I like that better than stuff. Especially if he like pulls back on the running a bit, you know, they lost Kenyon Drake. Like there's a chance they could throw. the most in the league. Absolutely. You're probably going to lose the bet, but the point is, over the course of, like, 10 years,

if you put enough Kyler Murray 41 to 1s to, like, lead the league of passing yards, that's going to work. Eventually, that's going to pay out. D.K., you should throw Calvin's College Fund on Kyler 1st, 41. Think about that.

I'm going to try. I'm looking up. He can go to college 41 times if you win that bet. You should tell Kyler Murray that you put your son's college fund on it, and that will motivate him to succeed. Great plan.

He needs that motivation. All right. The one, this is like a, downer. I got the number one bet I was looking with all the ones

the props on Fandle. This is kind of a downer. But I'm doing the unders. Nice. Amari Cooper under 1,200 receiving yards. I saw this one too. So, boring.

First of all, yeah, it's like, oh, it's an under. No one likes to bet the unders, right? Like, no one, like, like, the whole point of looking at a prop

is because you think a player would do well. No one's looking at, I fucking hate this guy. I'm going to bet the under. But there's one thing to important to remember with the prop over unders

for the season long, the guy gets hurt, you're screwed. over in your projecting for a 17-game season, and the guy misses three games, you're absolutely host. Amari Cooper under 1,200 yards. Do you guys know how many seasons

Amari Cooper has gone over 1,200 yards? How many? Zero or one is my guess. He has never gone over 1,200 yards in his career. I kind of can't believe it's at 12. Now, there's an extra game this season, which is part of why, but he still essentially needs to hover around his career highs for yards per

game to do this. That's assuming he plays 17 games. Amari Cooper, is, I mean, among all the elite receivers, this is good or better as anyone to miss, like, a couple games. I mean, he always has these ankle injuries, these foot injuries. I mean, if he misses any time, you're good. If Dak misses any time with this weird pitcher injury, you're good. And again, he's never gone over 12 before.

I think this one's pretty. This is, high fits, you're forgetting there's more one extra game this season, by the way. I just said there's an extra game. He's, so saying he's never gone over 12 before is just like, no, but he's an extra game for receiving yard is 74. Even with 17 games, he still needs to get to like, 71. It's still around his career high is what he needs. Four set for it to play a full season.

Fair enough. I have one that's very related to this. I saw that one. I thought that I actually agree with you. I'm just kind of like trolling you a little bit. But the CD Lamb over under his 10, 150. 150. He had 935 yards last year with fucking Ben Danucci and Andy Dalton and etc. at quarterback for much of the year. I think C.D. Lamb hammer the over on that one. I think he has a chance of going over 1,200 yards. Yeah, I mean, you should bet these against one another. Bet them both. Bet him already under or CD over.

Yeah, and again, extra game definitely helps. He had 935 yards last year. I like CD-LAM a lot this year. I just think, number one, I think he could end up being like the go-to guy in this offense. And we've heard so much of them moving guys around in the formation this year.

I think he's extremely talented. And with DAC back, you know, just like wheels up for this whole offense. also the other thing that I think that's interesting is that we this offense could support multiple thousand yards receivers maybe even three last in 2019 both amari and michael gallop went over 1100 yards so like it wouldn't even necessitate lamb being like the clear cut number one like i think he could still do this and another guy in this offense could go over 1100 yards yeah i think more than betting on cd's talent here you're betting on health of dac prescott and kind of banking that his

shoulder's going to hold up, his legs are going to hold up. But yeah, good value. I like it. So are you out of my Amari over, under 1,200? You got shitting on me? No, I like that. I think they're both going to hit like 1,100. Okay. All right, Craig, you haven't pulled any weight. We're trying to make money here. You're not getting your cut.

What's going on? I've been waiting. I'm backloaded. I'm going to finish this pod strong. My first bet that I really like is Keenan Allen to lead the league in catches is 17 to 1. That's good. And last year, he was the second most targeted player in the NFL, both on the season and per game.

And they didn't add a ton of wide receivers to the team, not a ton of talent around him. And that's usually how it happens. Last year, it was Stefan Diggs who led the league in catches. Didn't have a lot going on around him. The two years before that, it was Michael Thomas. Not a lot going on around him. It was Jarvis Landry and the crappy dolphins.

It was Larry Fitzgerald and John Brown. Like, this is typically how it goes. You have the second year leap, and not only that, the offensive coordinator for the Chargers is the guy who was the quarterback's Coach, when Michael Thomas led the league and catches for those two years. So 17 to one for Keenan Allen. I think he's the seventh highest player on Fandle

in terms of odds to lead to the league and catches. I love it. The guy's ahead of him right now. Stefan Diggs, Don Dre Hopkins, DeMonte Adams, Kelsey, Calvin Ridley, Darren Waller, and then he's tied, actually he's died with Darren Waller and Tyree Kill. Tyree Kill's ridiculous. I don't know why. That one's, I don't think you're going to win that one.

He's all about efficiency and like explosive plays and stuff. Yeah, listen, obviously Diggs Hopkins Adams' fine bets, but 17 to 1 for Keenan Allen, who had the same targets per game as Devante Adams last year is amazing. Absolutely. I'm trying to think, I'm looking at this list now of all the receptions leader. I'm trying to see if there's a dark horse here of who else could do it.

CD Lam's 44 to 1. We were just talking about him. I guess that there's too many other Cowboys receivers there to actually pull that off. Yeah, it's usually on teams where there's not a lot going on. Terry McLaren, Alan Robinson, but I don't know. Deontay Johnson. Alan Robinson at 23 to 1 is also a little intriguing. Yeah.

Okay. But Keenan Allen's 17 to 1 I like. All right, let's go to yards. Deke, any receiving yard things catch your eye. I was looking at this a lot. So these are tough. Most receiving yards, I got Justin Jefferson of the Vikings at 14 to 1.

I think it's kind of interesting because on the surface, it feels a little ass backwards because, you know, the Vikings are typically sort of a balanced offense. They like to run the ball a lot with Dalvin Cook. However, I think this year, Jefferson has a few things working for him. Number one, I think people think he's going to regress based on what he did as a rookie. I mean, he had 1,400 yards as a rookie receiving. And I think people are like, oh, he can't keep up that efficiency, blah, blah, blah.

I actually would put myself in that camp. Yeah. However, why can't he make a second year jump? Like, a lot of very good receivers make a second year jump. Like, maybe we haven't even seen the best of him. By the way, he was barely playing for the first, like, two or three weeks of the season. He was playing behind B.C. Johnson for the Vikings.

This is a full season. Extra game this season. I think he could outdo what he did last year. It's definitely in the realm of possibility. The other things that's working for him here are, again, it's a concentrated offense that's going to basically run through three people. It's Jefferson, Thielen, and Dalvin Cook. Those are the three main pieces in this offense.

Irv Smith, out for the year. You know, Tyler Conklin or whoever is going to be the second, whether it's him or Herndon. Obviously, it's Herndon, thank you. I don't know if they're going to be highly, highly involved. I think that Jefferson is going to be a huge, huge focal point of this. Thielen's not getting any younger. And then additionally, it's kind of like a bet,

such a hedge that the Vikings are not going to be that good, and they're going to be playing from behind a lot. And if you look at Kirk Cousin's numbers last year, and I think throughout his whole career, when they're playing from behind, Kirk Cousins actually kind of like goes nuclear a lot. Oh, he's a garbage time king. Absolutely.

So last year, when they were trailing, 25 of his 35 touchdowns came when they were trailing. He had 106 pass rating when they were playing from behind, which is better than either leading or tied. He averaged 8.3 yards per attempt. Again, 25 touchdowns, 2,700 yards. This is when they were trailing. So a lot of Kirk Cousins' production came, like you said,

not garbage time always, but like when they were trailing, when they need to come back. If you think the Vikings are going to be really good, maybe don't make this bet, because I think then that would change their philosophy and their style on offense. But I'm not quite sure that they're going to be like the type of team that's leading most of the time.

Well, no, but that's actually why I disagree is what you said. I don't think we actually disagree at all about Justin Jefferson or his talent. We disagree about why he succeeded last year in part, which was Kirk Cousins was throwing all the time because he was leading. When they were leading was when he was being productive. But the Vikings had the worst defense.

No, no, when they were trailing. Sorry, yeah, when the Vikings were behind. Right. But that's because their defense sucked. Mike Zimmer has been a defensive coach in the NFL for like 40 years. He said this. Like, last year was the worst defense of Mike Zimmer's ever had in 40 years. He was pissed.

So they did all their draft, all their free agency, everything's been about getting defensive players. They just re-signed Harrison Smith. Like, the whole thing is about getting their defense better. Mike Zimmer doesn't want to throw. Mike Zimmer doesn't want to be behind. He's not, that's not the offense he wants to run. It's not like they were throwing a tonne last year.

But even then, it was too much. I mean, I think Kirk Cousins basically threw like almost 100 more passes in 2020 than 2019, even though he played one fewer game. Like that's just, I don't think the Vikings want to play that kind of football. So if the defense gets better, I'm a little worried about the offense. But the flip side, I think to your point, if Justin Jefferson has the value this year, which is why I still think he's like a top 25 player in fantasy, is that Thielen had like 14 touchdowns or whatever, and that I think Jefferson has fewer yards than last year.

I do not think he gets 1,400 yards again. I don't think he's close. but I do think he probably has more touchdowns. This is going to be one to watch. I don't like your attitude. I'm all about Justin Jefferson this year. But I understand where you're coming from, though. Let me throw out one other guy to potentially leave the league in receiving yards.

Terry McLaren is 19 to 1. That's a great one. That's a really good one. 1,200 yards last year with no quarterback with me throwing to him, and I'm the third string quarterback of the charges. And now he's got Ryan Fitzpatrick, who gave Tavonte Parker 1,200 yards two years ago. I guess the worry here is that the team is really good and they're not down a lot and they're not throwing a ton.

But I do like what Fitzpatrick brings, that kind of volatility that could get Terry McClure in, you know, a big year. I like that one. I have a question for D.K. Gun to your head. Yeah. This season has played out 10 times. How many times does Tyler Lockett have more receiving yards for the Seahawks than D.K. Metcalfe if it's played out 10 times. How many times does he have more yards?

Probably like maybe four. four of the 10. Okay. So in that case, if we're talking about most regular season receiving yards, D.K. Metcalf is 13 to 1. Tyler Lockett is 44 to 1. Tyler Lockett, this is because he's not like, he doesn't look like Adonis or whatever. Must co.'s biased. He's like a short guy. Yeah, I think that's hilarious. That's like a vibes bet right there. He just, yeah, I don't know. I guess. I mean, he's had a thousand yards, I guess, each the last two seasons. But his yards for Target are always pretty low. That's probably for money. I have a Tyler Lockett one.

Do you want to talk about it right now? Should we skip to that one? Yeah, dive in. Yeah, Tyler Lockett. Okay, so Tyler Lockett, I'm looking at the most receiving touchdowns props right now. Wow.

And Tyler Lockett, I think, is a sneaky, sneaky one. I'm going to pull it up here. So right now he is 17 to 1. That's pretty good. He's like 15th on this list. And it's like most of the, you know, the usual suspects, Travis Kelsey, DeMate Adams, D.K. Metcalf as third.

Stefan Diggs. However, let's not forget, Tyra Lockett has ever so quietly scored 10-plus touchdowns twice in his career. I don't think anyone realizes this. Well, when you say 10-plus, you mean 10. Sorry, 10, not 10-plus. That's a really clever way to say.

What I meant was double digits. It sounds better. 2018 and 2020. He was third in end-zone targets in 2020. It was 16. he was fourth in end zone targets in 2019 with 13. Do you remember that year that Doug Baldwin randomly led the NFL in receiving touchdowns? You know why this happens?

It's because Russell Wilson likes to huck it deep into the end zone more than any other quarterback pretty much in the NFL. He's throwing it into the end zone. And Tyler Luckett is his 1B receiver. I get why I absolutely understand why D.K. McCaff is third in odds here because he's D.K. McCaff and he's really, really impressive. He can run a 4-3. However, Lockett is still one of Russell Wilson's favorite targets, especially in the end zone.

He can get deep. Defenses are going to be focused in on DK MacGav. I'm telling you, this is just, this is obviously more of like a long shot, but I think it's like a really good one because, yeah, I'm looking at Russell Wilson's numbers right now. He led the NFL and passed his thrown into the end zone in 2020 with 61, 2019, with 59, and he was third in that metric in 2018 with 48. dude's hucking it into the end zone. That's how you score touchdowns. If we're looking at long-should while we're on the receiving touchdown long shots,

the other one in this list that kind of jumps out to me, Antonio Brown is 75-1 to lead the NFL and receiving touchdowns. I'm not exactly like rooting for Antonio Brown to succeed, but, I mean, he caught four touchdowns and like five appearances or whatever for the bucks last year in the regular season, and then he had played in three games

and got two touchdowns from Brady, caught a touchdown in the Super Bowl. Brady brought him to the bucks to play with him. And now they get an off season together. And he hasn't exactly fallen off the field. Like on the field, Antonio Brennan's not actually falling off that much skill-wise. Like 75 to 1 is kind of good. I don't know if I actually want to root for that, though.

It's hard to figure out, I guess, or guess how the touchdowns are going to be divvied up this year. I think there's going to be a lot of them in Tampa Bay. Maybe it's just everybody is going to score six. Like, Gronk, Evans, Godwin, whoever, like Antonio Brown. Or maybe it's just going to be concentrated. Like, how do you guess that? How do you even guess? I think that you're right, though, like the odds are,

it's worth taking a shot on. Another one that I saw, this is switching gears a little bit. Another one I saw that I kind of did a double take on. Maybe my favorite one. I got Jalen Hertz, the quarterback for the Eagles, over 625 rushing yards. This is easy. I thought that was a mistake.

Easy. Hertz ran for 300 rushing yards in five games last year. So he has to double that number, and he's got 17 games to double the number. Yeah. like am I missing something? No. What are they doing?

It's the fear that like he'll get benched and Gardner Mitchell will come in? Or I guess the offense is worse or he's not like a surprise. I can't really explain it. I mean 600 yards, 625, but 625 yards 17 games for Jalen Hertz. I don't think. I mean, that seems easy, doesn't it? If he plays. Yeah.

Yeah. That seems like the easiest hammer that. Yeah. Speaking of that, I got one for Jalen Hertz. Actually, hold on. Before we move on, so I'm looking at the leaders and rushing yards last year. Lamar Jackson had 1,05 rushing yards. This is among quarterbacks. Kyler Murray had 819. Cam Newton had

592. I think this is so this is such a smash. How many games did he was out for like him had a he played 15 games. Oh man, it felt like he was out for longer than that. It did. Regardless, I think this is an easy bet. The other one that's one of my favorites on this whole list and I was going to get to it later but we might as well talk about it since Jalen Hurts. most rushing touchdowns in the NFL Jalen Hertz is 100 to 1 on Fanduil right now

What? I'm going to actually double-check this, makes sure, hasn't changed since yesterday. Most rushing regular season rushing touchdowns, we've got Holy shit. Yeah, he's 100 to 1. Obviously, this is a long shot

because most of the time you're not going to see a quarterback lead to NFL in rushing yards. In fact, I don't know if it's ever happened. 100 to 1 long shot. Cam Newton when he was a rookie he finished second in rushing touchdowns. He had 14 rushing touchdowns that season.

Dude, he's talking to make the Saints. Right. Well, he is, he did make the Saints. But he's like, really as thickly is the third string running back for the Saints. Him being, he has the same odds as Latavius Murray. And A.J. Dylan, James Connor, Rehom Oster. Wow.

This is a sweet value here. He's the same odds as Tassim Hill for rushing touchdowns. Vegas hates Jalen Hertz. That's what it seems like. Michael Carter. Maybe they are baking in the idea he's going to get benched or something. Josh Allen's 100 to 1-2 for rushing touchdowns.

Josh Allen's nine rushing touchdowns every year. It's bizarre. So here's my pitch on Jalen Hertz. I think Hertz is the best red zone weapon in terms of his rushing ability and passing ability since Cam Newton in the sense that he's like a running back. He's built thick. He's strong.

He's physical. He can be used on power runs and things like that. Built thick. I like that's like the new Ford slogan. Yeah. New Ford F-150. Built thick. Just drop Jalen Hertz onto like a slab of concrete and it smashes everything, it just crumbles.

Dennis Larry is just like narrating in jeans. Anyway, so Hertz scored three rushing touchdowns and four starts last year. Clearly you can't extrapolate that to a 17 game season, but I'm doing it right now. I'm doing it right now. He's going to score 15 rushing touchdowns this year and maybe just with the way that teams used running back by committee, all that stuff. Like last year, Derek Henry led the NFL with 17 rushing touchdowns. So 15 might be enough. So we just got to get these in before they change these odds.

Yeah, Jalen Hertz scored 43 rushing touchdowns in college. He had 20 rushing touchdowns his final season at Oklahoma. This guy is an incredible, incredible runner as a like a red zone threat, like the read option stuff, all the stuff they can do with him in the red zone. I don't think we should underestimate this. I think both these bets are. really smart. You don't have to sell me on this. It's a hundred to one. Like, it's a long shot. Obviously, it's a mistake. But I love it. I think that and the rushing yards one, the second we get off, I'm going to place these back. These are great. We have to put

those down. Okay. Anyway. Can I give you a boring one on defense that I'm going to do the second we get off this call or defense, but it's whatever. They're going to make money. Yes. Okay. It's a little deep cut, but dude, Joe Tryon, defensive end for the bucks, 33 to 1 to win defensive rookie of the year. Oh. So 18 of the last 20 defensive rookies of the year were edge rushers. Are you serious? 18 of the last 20.

So it's like, sorry, front seven players. But like, trial looks great for the bucks. And he's got like talented teammates. Like they got Shaq Barrett. They still have JPP. So like he's going to be getting one on one matchups. Like a lot of these top defensive ends that come and don't just get the one on one matchups.

And also it's the bucks. They're going to be winning all these games in the second half. Salt in the way. Yeah. Just be rushing the final 20 minutes of the game just riling up sacks. I think Trion could pretty easily. easily lead all rookies and sex. 33 to 1 to win defensive rookie of the year.

This is good. I like this. He looked awesome in the preseason, too. Like, he was explosive off the edge. He's very strong. Yeah, this is a good one. I'm going to be honest. I have no thoughts on Joe Tri. The angle, I think the angle that Hyatt's spread up, though,

that they're going to be leading, and then teams are going to be forced into, like, only throwing situations, like trying to come back. Like, that's smart. Here's their first-round pick. He's good. And him having a lot of one-on-one matchups because there's guys like Devin White and other people across the team.

Yeah. You know, soaking up double coverage. Vita Vaya is going to be back, clogging up the middle. Craig, you got another bet? Yeah, so I like Justin Herbert over 4,550 passing yards this year. Over how many?

4,550. So you're bullish on Herbs. Listen, last year he threw for 4,330. He threw for 230 less yards last year than they're projecting him to throw this year. And that's as a rookie. That's as a rookie. He didn't start week one.

He only played 15 games. Now he gets 17 games to throw 20 more yards than he did last year. And a team with real coaches with a real offensive line that he didn't have last year. I think Herbert's going to make a huge second year leap. And I think this is, I mean, as long as the guy doesn't get hurt, I don't see how he doesn't throw for more than 4,500 yards. So it's the same number for Josh Allen, too. And I was going to bring that up. Like, Josh Allen's also sitting there 4,500 passing yards.

Oh, over. That's the thing. through for more than 4,500 last year, it's kind of very similar to Herbert, where it's like Herbert did 42 and change in 15 games. Alan broke 4,500 in 16 games. Now they get a 17th game. So basically this just comes down to if they play the whole season.

Yeah, I guess you could, there's a chance that the bills are really good and sit him week 18 and stuff like that. That's true. Which you have to factor in. That's why I like Herbert, because I don't think that's going to happen. That's the problem with the overs,

is that any injuries just totally screw up the whole thing. Dude, so did you guys, watch the bill's final preseason game last week against the Packers. Brian Dayball is a maniac and I love it. So he obviously last year changed the offense, really helped

Josh Allen take this giant leap. He's the offensive coordinator for the people who don't just know Brian Dayball is tough they heard. He basically turned the bills into like the Chiefs offensively like stylistically. They were incredibly run first. Sorry, false. They were incredibly

pass first. Like Pat, like they went all in on passing, like tons of shotgun stuff, like basically air it out, spread the ball out. Yeah, they're Warren Sharp's favorite team because they literally just

never run the ball in first down. Yeah, they don't care about running anymore. The bills in this game, which I guess was like kind of like their dress rehearsal game, 28 out of 33 first half plays. So they ran five times

out of 33 plays in the first half. And it was like 17 out of 18 of their first place. First like 18 plays were passes. And like the vast. majority of them were a no huddle shotgun. These guys are going to just, it's like they're about ready to go off on the NFL this year. Like it's going to be incredible.

What are the odds that Brian Daibel is actually just like an 11 year old playing madden inside of a 45 year old man's body? Dude. And this is like the NFL's going to be so sad that they didn't hire Brian Daiball away as like a head coach somewhere because I think like this is setting up so perfectly for them just to go nuclear on everybody. So I love that one. I love the over. But I also love the Herbert one too Just because I think yeah Like they're gonna have

He's gonna have that second year jump too I think potentially He had 4,300 and 15 games And they're asking them to have 4,500 and 17 A whole season to prepare as the starter versus last year we came in There's like not really a preseason And they threw him in because the doctor

You know stabbed Tyra Taylor And the in the long I watched 20 minutes of Justin Herbert highlights last night I'm so in I think he's I think he's a good maybe like sleep for MVP bet as well as Stafford. I like it.

Somebody in Sofyes win an MVP. I wish you could bet SoFi MVP. By way, speaking of Herbert, read Meena Kimes' article on Herbert. It's really great. He's like this introvert guy,

but he's just like also Michael Jordan-esque as like a competitor. Like he's not going to let you fucking win at board games, buddy. Really, it's a great profile.

Do you guys play board games with your families? Yes. We play Uno religiously. Nice. I do not. I'm not really, no.

My film was, not a board game family, but now I've been kind of brought into a board game family. It's quite the experience. Like, it's really competitive. Yeah. Yeah. Maybe I'm naive. I just didn't realize how competitive families get over board games. It's like, it's a lot. It can get, it can be bad. A third of our family fights have come from Oona. If you have family fights that you want to email to us, please email about your board game family disputes at ringer fantasy football at gmail.com. Other, okay, other bets. Craig. Yeah, so DeAndre Swift, Sorry to D.K., this is going to upset him,

but I like DeAndre Swift under 875 rushing yards. Oh, okay. I have the same under on touchdowns. I'm under seven and a half touchdowns. Just, you freaking haters. It's a lot of rushing yards for Dandre Swift. He's already hurt. The last time, D.K., the last time a lion's running back had 875 yards was Reggie Bush in 2013.

Ugh. Listen, you can tell me that perhaps DeAndre Swift is the best running back they've had since Reggie Bush, but I don't know. I think we're underestimating Jamal Williams. Not me. I've been talking about him for a month and a half. Can't get Hyphus to shut up about him. Jamal Williams might be the second best running back they've had since Reggie Bush. Essentially, DeAndre Swift ran for four and a half yards to carry last year.

He would need about 190 carries at that clip to get him to 875. The last time somebody got 190 carries on the Lions was Joyke Bell in 2014. I don't think it's what they want to do with him. Yes, the Lions, they also have that like three-year stretch where they didn't have a hundred-yard player get 100 yards. But like, this is different now because now the whole- The whole coaching staff is, like, obsessed with running. This is also the lines of a good line now. Yeah, but the team's going to be losing every goddamn game.

And DeAndre Swift is more valuable as a wide receiver than he is a running back. I don't think they're going to give him 200 rushes. I don't really see how that's beneficial for them long term. I don't think, D.K. and I just fundamentally disagree on how this line's backfield's going to go. But even if we, even if D.K. is right and I'm wrong. I still just think the fact that DeAndre Swift is, like, already dealing an injury in August that just kind of pop. But it's a groin injury. Like, I don't love what a running back is still in the groin injury.

I'm mostly joking. I like Don't J. Swift because he has receiving skills. I don't really, actually don't really care about his rushing. That's why I like the under on the 875 rushing yards. I'm not completely disagreeing with you guys. Like, I know that's sort of like a bit because I love Dandre Swift, but I like Johnjoy Swift because he's a really good pass catcher. Not because I think he's going to, yeah.

I totally agree with that. Do you think 200 carries? I mean, do you think there's a chance he gets to 200 carries? That feels pretty high. And that's essentially what he'll need to get to around 900 yards. I mean, honestly, probably not. I think they're going to probably split it up pretty, pretty, evenly with Williams.

Hell, Williams might actually have more carries, honestly. Exactly. Yeah. Dude, I love the Williams. This sure been. Yeah, it wouldn't be totally surprising. However, I still think Swift is a good fantasy option because he has that past catchability, because they're going to be behind a lot, and because they don't have anyone else in this fucking offense to throw it to. Like, Hawkinson is the guy.

And then I guess, you know, like, Amon Ra, St. Brown has looked pretty solid as a rookie, but he's going to be a part-time player because he's only in the slot. I don't know. I just, I'm still bullish on Swift in the fantasy world. But I see where you guys are coming from in rushing. I'm looking at the latest average draft position. Jamal Williams is going behind Devin's Singletary in Buffalo, Kenyon Drake in Vegas, A.G. Dillon Green Bay. James Connor in Arizona. He's going behind Zach Moss in Buffalo,

Michael Carter for the Jets. Let me tell you something. Jamal Williams is going to be better than Michael Carter. This year is going to be better than both the Buffalo running backs. Like Jamal Williams. Border is starting running back available 114th. I agree. He's just boring. But that's, I mean, I guess. I totally agree with you guys, though. Yeah.

Yeah, so under 875 for DeAndre. I like that. And like you said, it's under seven and a half rushing touchdowns. Yeah, sorry, it's the same. It's the same conversation, basically. It's just even when he's healthy, I just don't think the lines are giving him the ball

at the two-yard line enough to get eight touchdowns. Do you guys remember my butterfly effect question that I posed the other day or like a couple months ago? If he catches at the touchdown with the game in week one? How different is the world if Deandre Swift catches that week one pass in the end zone that would have made the lion, that would have won the game to the lions. Instead they lost.

The wheels fell off. He got sort of relegated to the bench for most of the rest, like, not the rest of the season, but like for a few games. Everything changed. The world changed. Who did they lose to?

I'm not sure, but it was like, it would have been the game winning catch. And he dropped it. We'll never know. I think it maybe was the Packers. I think it might have been the Packers. It might have like totally altered the freaking NFC North.

I mean, let me look at it up. Well, you said butterfly effect. I would, hesitate to even bring this up, but the Wall Street Journal literally reported it, so I'm just going to roll with it.

The ultimate butterfly effect is the fucking, the 49ers Jimmy Garapolo throwing that deep pass to, oh, yeah. Was it Emmanuel Sanders? Yeah, it was. And he was talking about,

like a yard, and Amy Andersoners would have just streaked in the end zone and the Niners would beat the cheese. Forget the Mahomes stuff. Trey Lance isn't on the Niners, no, no, forget all that. The Wall Street Journal, like,

reported this. It's like COVID. Yeah. The parade for the Niners, would have been in mid-February, and they look back, like research, not like me, researchers at,

I think one of those colleges in the Bay Area basically were like, COVID was in the area. So the Niners parade in early February would have completely changed the trajectory in America.

So that would have been a super spreader event. Yeah. Yeah. Well, okay, so that first, that game with DeAndreau Swift was against the Bears. So,

just something to think about. Just don't think. Or more likely, just don't think about it. Enough butterfly. effect. Another one, Steelers. Dude, Najee Harris, over under 1,000 rushing yards. Give me a thousand rushing yards

for Najah Harris. I like this one. Every day. This one's easy. Three down back. He's going to get like 350 touches. He's going to get 1,000 rushing yards. Hey guys, do you know how many rushing yards you need? Do you know how many, let me rephrase that because I don't know how to speak. Hey, guys, do you know how many rushing yards you need

per game in a 17 game season to hit 1,000 rushing yards? 58. Oh, he could do that. 58 a game? Here's the problem. Are they going to be losing too much? Not to get... Is that why it's set at 1,000?

No. Steelers have a top five defense. I kind of think the Steelers are going to be good. I don't know. The hate has gone too far. The only problem with these is just injuries. It's just that if you put enough overs on running backs, it can burn you. Just because they get hurt, missed five games.

Harris's backup, his primary backup, Anthony McFarlane, started the season, is now starting the season on the IR. So he's out for at least three weeks. Harris is not coming off the field. He's going to immediately be the 85. They're going to just freaking ride this guy. Yeah. Yeah, that's a great one.

I like this one. Is the rookie wall a thing, D.K., while we're on that, it's like the only thing with Harris, like, is the rookie wall like these guys have never really played 113 games in their careers? And now you've got to play at the highest level for more. I mean, I don't know what the magnitude of the effect that it has, but I think it actually is a thing that, you know,

these college players are used to playing what, like 11, 12 games, like 13 if you get like deep into the playoffs or whatever, playoffs into the bowl season. And so, yeah, I mean, I think it is. the thing. Plus, it's like the NFL is just a different, a whole new ball game. It's a whole new level. On the flip side, though,

like, they don't have to go to school and stuff. Like, I think I've heard players talking about, like, how going into the NFL is nice because you can just focus on football. You don't have to actually go to class and shit during the week. Like, being a student athlete is low-key really hard because you still have to be in school.

So, I don't know. I doubt it's like that big of a deal. I think teams definitely try and protect against it because these guys can wear it down. Like you're playing 16, 17 games. Like that's the longest college season of all time. You know what I mean? It's like that is not what they're used to.

So yeah, I think it is the thing, but I don't think it's going to affect Najee Harris. Luckily, Najee Harris is always used to go and through the playoffs and into the championship in Alabama. So he's had a couple more games. Yeah. Perfect. Okay, DK, get another propit for us?

Here's one that I was a little confused about. Most rushing touchdowns in the season. I like that Jay, Hurts one is the long shot, but this one to me is like juicy. 20 to 1, Ezekiel Elliott lead the league in touchdowns. Like, shouldn't he be one of the favorites? He's 10th on this list. Zeke is averaged, averaged 10 rushing touchdowns per game.

No, sorry, per 16 games. Because he hasn't always played a full season, but he's averaged 10 rushing touchdowns per 16 games in his career. He had like 15 as a rookie. He's 10th on this list. And we're talking about the, the, the, Cowboys becoming like this juggernaut offense. Now they got Zeke back.

Now they got Dak back. Like the passing game is going to be incredible. It's just they're going to be impossible to defend in the red zone. By the way, and I think this is, I don't think this is sticky. I will say like maybe their offensive line is just not as good as it had been in the past. But Ezekiel Elliott had 22 rush attempts inside the five yard line last year, which is the second most of all players. He only scored five times. But in my mind, that is like a regress to the mean stat.

still going to be getting all their goal line carries or like the fast majority of their goal line carries and I think he's just going to score on more of them this year and he's scored up so for for reference he scored on nine of 12 rush attempts inside the five yarn line in 2019 I'm just looking at this it's like how is he 20 to 1 how is he 10th on this list among all running backs I don't get that I can't explain that we should bet that I got a question about Zique to you guys so I feel like you know we said this on Bill's show about Hyphitz, you did like the 85% you want these running backs

who play like 85% of snaps. You and I, Hyfitz, are both really into Zieg. I mean, we both have him third overall this year in our rankings. So last year Zeeke played like 68% of the snaps, but years prior, he played north of 80, usually. Do you see that coming back? Does that worry you at all? Yeah, no, it's because

he had the hamstring thing last year. Like, Zincke's never really been hurt college or NFL, like... And the fumble Ruskis. Yeah, but no, I'm not worried about him. I mean, first of all, I'm not worried about him. I mean, first of all, how much hard knocks do they just keep talking about how he looks better in shape? No, I'm not worried about.

He does look better. He's felt. No, I think Zick gets about to 85. I think it was because he was hurt, and also the season was borderline lost, and what was the point of pushing Zique when he's not 100% behind third string lineman when DAC is hurt. Yeah.

It didn't make sense to push him, but they just signed him this huge contract. Okay, you guys got a couple more bets and then get to some emails? Yeah, so Sam Darnold, baby. I'm taking Sam Donald over 3,850 passing yards. Let me set the stage for you. So 3850, 3,850 passing yards.

Last year, Teddy Bridgewater on the Panthers for 3733, 3,733. 125 less, essentially, is what Teddy Bridgewater did in 15 games. This year, Sam Donald, fourth year, he's only 24. It's better prospect than Teddy ever was. Obviously, this is the best talent he's ever had around it. and we cannot underrate the Adam Gase effect. This is, there's such a long history.

I needed to find a way to bet against Adam Gase, even though he's not a coach in this league, and I found a way to do it this year, and it's Sam Darnold's over. Ryan Tannahill, when he was in his final two years with Gase, was on pace for 3,200 yards on the season. That's pretty much exactly what Darnold was on pace for last year. Tannahill threw for 3,819 yards

in his first full season with Tennessee on a team that ran the ball the third most in the league. Like, this makes so much sense to me. I know everybody, it's tough mentally, you know, the anchoring to get past the recency bias of Sam Darnold. But 3,800 is really low on a Matt Rule offense with DJ Moore, Robbie Anderson, Terris Marshall, Christian McCaffrey. I think he could easily eclipse what Teddy Bridgewater did last year. I like this one. So I'm riding on Donald for next week.

And so I went back and watched the Panthers' last preseason game. Like he played basically the entire first half. He was like a little hit and miss, but I actually thought he was pretty sharp. Like there was a couple plays where he looked like Darnold. There was one play where he threw what should have been a pick. And there was another play where he got gobbled up in the pocket and almost fumbled. But like, for the most part, I think that there's a reasonable chance that Joe Brady can get the most out of Darnold. They did a lot of stuff that was just like quick hitting, get the ball out, like layups, get him comfortable, get him going.

it was a lot of sort of lower A dot stuff, but like, that's fine. I just don't want him to like revert to throwing tons and tons of picks. That's the main thing. I think he can become Bridgewater plus in this offense, distribute the ball. Clearly they think he can since they got rid of Bridgewater and traded for Sam Darnold. They think he has better, like arm talent, all that stuff. So I don't know. I think obviously the decision making is like the big thing with Donald.

And that's going to be like what makes or breaks the season. It's kind of like the James Winston thing, decision making. If he starts to see ghosts or whatever, like he saw it like he had in New York. But, I mean, like watching him play, I thought like his arm looked good. Like he was slinging it. You know, not slinging it, like making incredible plays,

but like good velocity on those passes. He's got a canon, right? Good accuracy, which I thought was important, especially on a lot of these outbreaking routes. There's a couple third down throws he made where he just put it in the perfect spot, outside shoulder of his receiver, and the guy was able to turn up field

and get a first down, blah, blah, blah. I was somewhat, like, encouraged by that performance. Now, that's clearly preseason, and there's a million caveats. But I'm starting to, like, have some optimism about this. 225 yards a game. That's all he needs to eclipse this number. 225 yards a game. And also, I think they're still probably a year away on defense, I would say.

So they're probably going to be trailing a lot. And so they're going to have to throw a lot. I'm going to counter D.Ks. He's dubious. Well, no, no, just these are. really nuanced and really thoughtful takes and I'm just going to counter with my bet and my next long shot is just Mike Davis

55 to 1 to win the Russian medal. God damn it. Stop. I do like that one actually. Fifty five to one, baby! What if it... Do you believe or not? What's Corterill-L Patterson? The fact that Jalen Hertz is 100 to 1 to lead the league in rushing touchdowns and Mike Davis is half that. No, it's a yardage. 55 to 1 for yardage. Whatever, whatever.

So the problem with this, I like, this, this is a great one and this is very on brand. No, I'm saying it's great because it's on brand. However, we will separate the believers from the non-believers. Heif, Fitz, basically, you're betting that the Falcons are going to be really good. Mike Davis is the best running back in football. You're betting that the Falcons are going to win like 11 games.

Hyvitz, how many yards do you think gets you that title? Oh my God. I don't know. 16,700? That's what you're predicting for Mike for Funk. Probably needs at least 14, 15. Yesterday, I thought of a new nickname for Mike Davis, guys. yesterday I was listening to

somebody talk about Mike Davis and they were like, you know, you're not drafting him for his skill. You're drafting him for workload and his situation. You're drafting him for his situation. He's Mike the situation. Davis. Oh, that's good. Holy shitty is the situation.

Mike Davis, baby. The situation, 55 to 1. There should be a whole category of guys we call the situation where it's not their talent. It's where they are. Who are the other situation, guys? Oh my God Moster to that Rih Mostered is Oh he's good

Actually I think Mike Davis is fast Like we're underrating his talent But I think this is amazing Are we? So we are underrating his talent I am Daryl Henderson The situation

Daryl Henderson No Sony Michelle's the situation So Mischel's the situation Jamal Williams Situation By the way The situation What a nickname

What a name The situation Jim Tan Volume Anything He also kept the the right as Facebook dropped it. Yeah, anything with a the on it is great in my opinion. The situation. Unbelievable.

Okay, do you guys have anything to top Mike Davis at 55 to 1? Are you going to get to some emails? I have one more bad. It definitely doesn't top Mike Davis, but one more I wanted to toss out. Chivante Williams, the rookie running back on Denver, over 775 rushing yards this year. I like that a lot. I think they really like him. He didn't play in the third preseason game because they said that we feel good about

where he is. So they played Melvin Gordon a lot. The new GM didn't draft. Melvin Gordon. They drafted Giovante Williams. He's a really good pass protector. He's PFF's top broken tackle per attempt rate, the highest they've ever seen. I just think he's going to finish really strong. Denver's D is really good. They've stable QB. Like, I think they're going to be in games. They have the second easiest schedule against running backs this year, according to PFF.

They're going to play that way too, I think. Like, you know, try and control the ball. They're good defensive team. I think that's going to be Vic Fangio's like style. Yeah, I like this one a lot. Yeah, like Warren Sharp hates that Pat Shermer runs a lot on first down. Hey, that's great for Javonte Lee. Last year, Jonathan Taylor, who was barely involved in the first few weeks, he rushed for 1,169 yards. Yeah, exactly. A lot of rookie running backs have strong second halfs of the season. Yeah. And 775 is just, that's just low. How many is that, do the math, how many is that over a 17 game season per game? Forty-five yards a game. He could do that. I could see that. I could see that. Yeah, that should be a good one.

Okay, let's get to some emails. Last episode, we compared players to different drinks at bars or whatever, and people emailed in, I got to read one from Trey. That was particularly great. Trey. So he's got some more. So the screw it, we're having fun, let's do it, of drinks is the taking Mahomes in, like, the first or second round.

Like, you feel great. You get the best player in football. And then you start chucking shit. And then you look at your wrong. Boster and James Conner's in your flex and you feel like shit. But the other, he's got some more, he says, Chris Carson is PBR because you're laughing at your friends and saying, I have a top running back too. I just paid less for it.

But then you like sip the hynican and you realize that, um, no, this is not the same hysterically. It won a blue ribbon. High fits. Come on. Dude, that was a hundred years ago. They got to stop talking about it. Like, fucking get over it. Just resting.

Talk about resting on your laurels. Unbelievable. He says, Taysom Hill is Long Island ice tea because you. You can play them at tight end or quarterback, and there's like three different types of drinks in here. I can't lose, but you actually don't like any of them. They're all bad. I can't lose.

I can't lose. It turns out you can only lose. Odell Beckham is the edible you got from your friend at the store, and you have no idea what's in this, but it's either going to be great or a disaster, but it's five bucks, so like, you know, whatever. That's good. Or it's almost like an edible in that in the first three weeks.

You're like, this isn't working. I need to take more. And then week four, it goes insane. He has 220 yards. Like tapping it like, hey, do something, do something. It's like every O'Dell story is the same story. Like it just wasn't doing anything. And then later it did a lot.

Lastly, Derek Carr's Old English, because we've all had that night where you're like, I just need something for the night. So you grab something cheap and it sucks and it makes you feel bad even in the moment, but you have to have something. Old English, baby. Malt liquor. Yeah. I've had a 40 in a long time.

Yeah. I was just thinking of Edward 40 hands. never done that thankfully really no i've done it once it's pretty fun do we need to hear that the hardest part is peeing yeah yeah well i mean you can just you know smash the the bottles and then oh that seems dangerous yeah glass shards uh we also got email someone to email branded emailed talking about how i suggested the decision-making framework of like when you're between two things think about making each pick and imagining it goes wrong and you lose

and then comparing how you feel in those situations and Brendan emailed me a link and he said it triggered distinct memories from my days at a Jesuit university where they talked about the concept of consolation and desolation essentially where you role play in your head whatever you're concerned about

assess how you feel and pick the other option so apparently I have like a whole complex or something that people study. I mean that sounds right that definitely sounds right. There you go. One of many probably. Yeah, probably. All right.

That's all I got. Of all the bets we went through, are you guys most excited to put it on a 55-to-1 and Mike Davis to win the rushing title? No. Listen, I think the biggest winner out of this episode is Jalen Hertz. Yeah. I think so.

Okay. Everyone go bet on Jalen Hertz, and hopefully the odds didn't change while we posted this episode. We're going to go do that right now. Thank you, Craig. Thank you, L'K. Thank you, Lorne. Thank you, Les Paul.

I'm going old school. Old school guitarist. Okay. Literally has a guitar. named after him. I didn't know that. We'll see you guys next week. Okay, move on from that quickly.