The Ringer NFL Show - Players to Avoid in 2020

Episode Date: August 12, 2020

We break down the players we don’t like at their current draft value in 2020. RB Leonard Fournette, Jaguars (5:12) QBs Lamar Jackson, Ravens/Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs (8:22) WR DeAndre Hopkins, Cardinals (11:27) RB Sony Michel, Patriots (14:03) RB Le’Veon Bell, Jets (16:52) RB Derrick Henry, Titans (19:10) WR Cooper Kupp, Rams (22:53) WR Deebo Samuel, 49ers (26:59) WR Courtland Sutton, Broncos (29:02) WR Stefon Diggs, Bills (34:26) WR T.Y. Hilton, Colts (35:46) WR Brandin Cooks, Texans (38:25) TE Zach Ertz, Eagles (39:52) TE Jared Cook, Saints (41:11) RB Antonio Gibson, Washington (43:14) Check out The Ringer Fantasy Football Guide for our updated rankings, tiers, mock drafts, and more. Hosts: Danny Heifetz, Danny Kelly, and Craig Horlbeck Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Ringer Fantasy Football Show. I'm Danny Heifitz, and I'm here with my co-host, Danny Kelly and Craig Horlebeck. D.K., you're excited to work Saturdays this year? Yeah, I was just thinking about this. We're going to potentially have the NFL on Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, almost every day of the week. Screw it. Let's just toss in Tuesday and Wednesday.

I mean, why not? So we are coming to you from the very recent past. We are recording this on Monday afternoon. The show is going up Wednesday, so God knows what could have happened to the... college football season in the next 48 hours. So we're not going to talk about that at length, but we're seeing what you're seeing. Do you guys like at the end of the season when they play a couple

Saturday games in the NFL? I love it from a fan perspective. I mean, from people who already sacrificed their weekend. Oh, sacrifice is not the word, but don't have weekend lives during the season. To lose Saturday, too, is a little annoying. But overall as a product, I think it's like the Saturday games last year, which I think was Bill's Pats and then Niners' Rams, Those were three good games.

I just think socially, as a social person with friends, it sucks. Because even if you don't work in football and you just like watching it, it's just, you're like, damn it. I got Saturday, there's a great game Saturday night and a great game Sunday night. Like, I guess I'm not doing anything. I'm a creature habit too, man. I, like, I have a ritual. I love getting up on Sunday and getting ready for the big day of games.

I don't like when they spread it out as much, honestly. I like kind of the chaos of having all the games at the same time. trying to keep up with everything and keep up on Twitter and all that. I don't know. I'm just not a huge fan. Hyviz, you have lived on the East Coast for a lot of your life, right? Oh, yeah. And then I lived on the West Coast.

I've been watching football for years now on the West Coast. I lived in New York for a year, and I despised that it started at 1 p.m. It is the worst thing ever. So I grew up as classic Eastern Time Zone football fan as you can imagine. Giants games 1 o'clock. It was like a ritual. and so moving to the West Coast to work for the ringer. It's so jarring to have football start at 10 in the morning

because there's this whole whatever your pre-morning ritual is, I mean, starting usually with waking up hungover. And then the fact that football just starts, it feels like earlier than normal, but any possible downside of football beginning early that you can think of is completely washed away by Sunday night football ends, and it's like 9 o'clock,

and you can go to sleep. And it is amazing. I cannot describe what it's like to be. Or how about the 18 inning Red Sox World Series game that it's like, wow, this is crazy. But it's, you know, on the West Coast, it's like 1130. You're like, this isn't that weird. Like, it's so great to watch a game. And then, oh, I'll watch the Sopranos and go to bed by 10.

Like, going back to East Coast sports sucks. Yeah. I mean, imagine if you were an Oakland A's fan or a Seattle Mariners fan. The game started 10, 15 p.m. on the East Coast. What are you supposed to do? Everyone works in the East Coast. has this silent play that no one wants to complain about. But when it gets to like the fourth quarter and you have to get up early and then it's like

11 o'clock and it might go to overtime and you're like, I'm half interested in this Patriots game. I'm half not. Or baseball when it's extra innings. You have to make this decision of like, do I go to bed and miss something cool or do I stay up and the game sucks? And then in the West Coast, it's like, no, it's fine. I miss the first two innings. And then I watch the game.

It's just, it's the best. Also, I'd argue that a 10 a.m. game helps the hangover. I like to be hungover at 10 a.m. You get up, you feel like crap, cup of coffee, games on. You just kind of sit there and squint your eyes for an hour until 11. Waiting until 1, it would be excruciating, man. Yeah, what do you do then? It helps the hangover at 10 a.m.

You listen to Kishon Johnson and Tom Jackson, all the ESPN guys talk about football. No. You actually watch the countdown shows. That's the biggest difference. You watch the countdown. You know what? Look, you know what? All right, let's talk about fantasy football.

All right, today we're talking about guys who we're avoiding and drafts this season. Because you know what? You can talk about sleepers and play people you love, but you know what? We all just want to not make mistakes, right? The goal is to just not step on a landmine. Yeah, sometimes I think in auction draft specifically,

I almost like players to avoid more than I like players to target. Yeah, it's like you want to try and bid these guys up a little bit so people don't get them too cheap, but then no intention of actually taking it. These are the guys you talk up before to your friends, but then you actually don't care. Yeah.

You actually don't like them at all. So, yeah, this is kind of self-explanatory. We just don't like these guys. I mean, obviously there's an element of value here of, well, it's not that we would never draft these guys, but the value they're currently going at, we don't have any interest in. I think that's obvious. Okay. Yeah, so we encourage everybody to make your own rankings and eventually if somebody falls too far that you don't like, you should maybe end up getting them. Having said that, you know, if we don't like you don't like you indictment on your character and, you know, that's just be a stamp you carry with you like a scarlet letter for the rest of your life. So, no pressure. D.K., do you have someone that you are avoiding this season? I mean, you better. That's the whole premise of the episode. He's like, no one. I love everybody. He's like, no, I just love everybody. Yeah, I'm going to start with our guy, Lenny Fornes.

Unfortunately, after we touted him all of last year, I'm kind of off that train. Right now, he's the RB14th 30th overall in 80p and half PPR leagues per fantasyprose.com. So to me, that just feels really risky at cost. Like, that cost is just too much for me. He's not going to get the 100 targets that he got last year. I think Chris Johnson's probably going to be playing a pretty significant. can't roll on passing. Sorry,

Chris Thompson, yes, on passing downs. And then, you know, we don't even really know if Recwell, Armstead is going to have a role.

Farnett could be in a full-blown, you know, committee type approach. There's new offensive coordinator, Jay Grude, and we just don't really know how heavy of a workload he's going to get. He just hasn't really shown

that he has the ability to put up elite numbers. Even if he does get early down work, he was terrible in the red zone last year. He does have a little bit of, touchdown, like positive touchdown regression, working in his favor,

but I don't know, this is just going to be a bad offense. They're going to be playing from behind a lot, so they aren't going to be able to run the ball probably as much as they want to. I don't know, man. I just, to me, that spot right there, 30th overall, the RB 14,

there's just so many other players in that range that I'd feel so much more comfortable going with. And you're leaving out the elephant in the room here, which is his job security is in question because they spent three months trying and failing to trade him. Right. He's expensive. They took him,

the fourth pick. I mean, they could have had to show on him homes, which is neither here or there. But they've been trying to move him, which means to me that I would not be surprised if they trade him or if they'd be comfortable benching him down the stretch, which otherwise would be unthinkable. Do you give any credence to the fact that he had like two touchdowns last year despite seeing a lot of carries and then could pretty easily have nine or ten touchdowns this year and just almost make up all of his value right there? I mean, the regression, the positive regression is probably going to come. but I just still don't know if that's enough to make up for him being on a bad offense in a potential committee

and or not even being the lead guy in this offense anymore. I actually was really surprised I saw this the other day. Vegas has the worst expected win total. The Jags do in Vegas have the worst expected win total four and a half. Do you think they're the worst team in the NFL? I don't know if I look at... Jets. Yeah, I think it's the Panthers.

The Panthers, really. I think the Panthers are the worst team. Because they have by far the worst defense. But the Jaguars, to me, are right there. Yeah. So, I mean, regardless, the point is worried about the volume, worried about that overall effectiveness of that offense, and worried about him not getting involved in the passing game as much.

I just think, you know, you're really looking at a guy who's kind of going to be dependent on touchdowns. And he hasn't been an efficient guy. So, I don't know. To me, that's just really, really pricey to have that type of player. And nothing makes. you doubt this even though his Twitter heading is literally God creating him. Like this is Dean Chapel. No, that was why we loved him so much last year.

This is a new year. It just doesn't carry as much weight anymore. Hivitz, drop your big take coming up. This will be a breakout. Do not draft Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes because they're terrible at football. No, they're very good at football, but that's kind of the problem. They're so much better in real life that they're not that good in fantasy football. We obviously, we love Lamar here.

We love Patrick Mahomes. But they're being drafted in the second round. That doesn't really make any sense because fantasy football, like a trade secret of fantasy football. The rules are kind of dumb. You only start one quarterback in the NFL or in 32 teams. 27 of them are pretty good. Fantasy football, the standard league's 10 teams. That means there's basically twice as many good quarterbacks available as there are spots in a standard league.

So using a second round pick on Lamar or Mahomes this year just doesn't make a any sense. It doesn't matter how good they are because there's two problems. One, they're probably going to be slightly worse than they were last year. Or Mahomes was from 2018. Lamar was from 2019. They're probably going to get a little worse. And we can go into those underlying numbers. But basically, Lamar led the league in touchdown passes while throwing the fewest passes. That's not going to happen again. And even if it does, the marginal difference between a quarterback and a running back in that spot or a receiver in this spot is so big because you have to start roughly about 25 running backs in your whole league every week versus 10 quarterbacks.

The difference between getting the second quarterback and the 10th best quarterback is like a few points a week. The difference between the running backs you can get with that marginal value is like seven or eight. So really, which combo do you guys rather have? If you use your second round pick on Aaron Jones running back for the Packers, you can use your ninth round pick on like Aaron Rogers. So you can have Aaron Jones and Aaron Rogers or you could have like Lamar Jackson and

like Marlon Mac. or you could have like Travis Kelsey and Tom Brady or you could have Patrick Mahomes and you could have Jordan Howard. So it's Lamar Jackson and Mahomes both going the second round it just doesn't make any sense. Yeah, I mean it's about opportunity cost. You know, you can get,

and this has happened almost like every year going back the last few years. You can get really high scoring quarterbacks later in drafts. Last year it was Lamar Jackson. Dak Prescott was another guy you could get relatively late. I think we should make the Fantasy 10 commandments and I think that on it,

one of them is draft a quarterback late. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, it's just, it's been proven over and over. A new god or an old god? Because if we're trying to be a jealous god, it's like, do not draft one early or it could be like virtuous,

like do draft one later. Interesting. So what kind of gods are we? Yeah, that's, I mean, we're spending this whole episode passing judgment. I think we'd be virtuous. We have to stay nice.

Yeah, virtually. We need positivity in 2020. The 10, the 10 commitment, yeah, it's like all, you hear all this about the seven sins. you guys know that there are also seven virtues, right? Hit me with one of them. I don't know.

I'm not a good person. Okay. But they exist. It's like we should talk about them more and then I know them. All right. You can look it up. That's your homework for the next episode, Danny. Seven virtues.

Okay. The point is, you know what? We got to focus on the Ten Commandments of what to do and what not to do. You should focus on who to be, who not to be. That's neither here nor there. Who not to draft? Keep going. Correct.

That's true. You should not draft DeAndre Hopkins. We should just start saying these crazy definitive statements, so they just make crazy hot take breakouts. Do not draft DeAndrehead. Any round. In any round. It doesn't matter.

Let him go. So he's getting drafted as the fourth wide receiver off of the board, which normally when he's on the Texans the last five years is fine. He was the wide receiver five last year. So this is essentially drafting him as if he's still on the Texans. The only problem is he's not on the Texans. He's on the Cardinals on a team that spreads the ball out. Their receivers include Larry Fitzgerald and Christian,

Kirk, who both had 100 targets last year, and that may make you think, oh, well, that means DeAndre Hopkins can get that, too. But DeAndre Hopkins averaged 159 targets when he was on the Texans for the last few seasons. So that's not going to happen again. And if that's not going to happen again, I doubt he's going to be able to return the exact same numbers he put up with Deshaun Watson, not to mention the lack of chemistry and this office he said, blah, blah, blah, we all know about that. And him and Kyler Murray just might not get off to a strong start.

So I'd rather have guys like Tyree Kill, Julio Jones, Adam Thielin, Alan Robinson, who are much more likely to return their draft value just because they're in a situation that's stable that they've been in before. I just trust it more. Would you rather draft Lamar at the 15th pick or DeAndre Hopkins? DeAndre Hopkins. There you go. See, there you go. That's the ranking of the commandments. See, the quarterback one is above the other one. Are the commandments ranked? I really don't think the commandments are. We're going to rank our commandments. All right. Our commandments will be ranked because fantasy. The other ones definitely aren't. I really hope not. Craig, I want to ask, where are you willing to start drafting him?

I got Hopkins in a best ball league at the 20 spot last week, and that to me felt okay, but now I'm seeing people who are like really fading him. Like, Evan Silva has him super low. I think he has him as wide receiver 14. So my initial impression was like, oh, I got a relative good value for him in late second round, but now I'm thinking maybe I didn't. Like, I'm having second thoughts about it because, you know, there's just so many factors working against them this year. The new team, new offense, new quarterback. COVID-19 is, there's no time to, like, get up to speed with these guys.

So, yeah, now I'm, like, second-guessing it. Specifically this year where I'd kind of been, I know I, like, touted zero RB like two months ago, but now I'm actually really going the other way. I really want to get at least one running back in my big wooden sock move. Yeah, I want to get at least one running back in my first two rounds, if not two. And in that 20 spot, like you said, like that's where Kenyon Drake is going and Miles Sanders and Clyde Edwards-Hillard. I'd much rather have those guys than hot.

Oh, yeah. Hey, everyone. I just wanted to let you know for this next part that we recorded this episode on Monday before the news broke that the Patriots signed running back Lamar Miller. So keep that in mind for this discussion about New England running back Sony Michelle.

And we will address Lamar Miller on our next episode. Thank you. And let's get back to the show. Dika, do you have another fantasy player we should avoid? for this season. Yeah,

I'm out on Sony Michelle, the Patriots. This one's not like a huge secret or very, you know, it's not like,

I'm giving you this great, great tip. He's coming into the year, you know, there's question marks about his knee. There's question marks

about his role in the offense. He, so last year, Sony Michelle, tied for ninth in the NFL in carries. He had 247 carries. And then he finished

in terms of total fantasy points. He finished 28th. So he was like, And this isn't half PBR. He was one of the least effective, probably the least efficient running back in the NFL last year. He was the definition of low value carries. This is a stat that Ben Gretch over at CPS does a lot, the trap yards or whatever. It's like if he's only being used inside the 20 or in between the 20s, he doesn't get those high value targets.

He doesn't get like in the passing game. He doesn't get a ton of red zone looks or at least he didn't convert his red zone looks last year. So I think he has a chance not even be the starter. Like Damien Harris could end up being the starter for the Patriots. Well, it's the unholy Trinity. It's the, he has low, like the trap touches between the 20s. And he's not a versatile player. So because he can't be a receiver that he's not like, he's very predictable.

And he has a lot of injury concerns. Yeah. Teams knew the Patriots were running last year when Sony Michelle was on the field. It was like 80, 90% or something like that. Not to mention that their quarterback is now a goal line back, essentially. Yeah, so Cam is going to probably be the one that's stealing those. I don't buy that Damien Harris is going to steal Sony-Michel's job and that Damien Harris

in the last round could win you your league if he actually holds on the starting job. I think Damien Harris is a really great last round pick just because he's a good player. We don't know exactly how that backfield is going to shake out. That's exactly what you want to be targeting. Damien Harris is the all-time leader

in yards per carry at Alabama, which for those of you who remember the before times used to be this school that played college football. The before times. It was really good. And he was like the best most efficient runner in the history of that school from the before times. So good at football. I think he's going to take Sony Michelle's job. Craig, who else are you avoiding this year?

You don't want to go with your hot take? You got Levi-on-Bell next up. I did, but I went out of order and I was just going to roll with it. No, why don't you start? We'll keep it smooth. All right, fine. I don't like Levy on Bell this year. I think he's a name classic example of like the name brand guy used to be in the top five that you get around to like the fourth fifth round.

You're like, oh, right, I could get Levy on Bell. And then it's so easy to talk yourself into like how he could be really good. And there's just so many reasons here that I don't like him. But forget the health, forget age, forget all that stuff. He breaks two rules. The coach doesn't seem to like him, which is a problem. because Adam Gase, aside from all the rumors of, I didn't want to sign him.

And I remember the GM who signed Levy on Bell was fired two months later and that M. Gase was like, I never wanted Levy on Bell. So that's like strike one. And then strike two is when he said a couple months ago, I do think we have, this is quoting Levyon Bell to Rich the Media of ESPN. Sorry, quoting Adam Gase about Levyon Bell to ESPN. Quote, I do think we have some guys that can help maybe lessen the load on Levion to where it's not all on him.

Hopefully we can get some of the younger backs to where we can make a good one-two punch. So that's not good. That's strike two. And then strike three is probably going to be week two when Levyon Bell plays like 40% of the snaps. I don't want to get there for strike three. And then also just the Jets have no continuity. They're the second worst team on returning snaps on offense. They're 31st among returning snaps on offense.

They're four new offensive linemen for this season. They just cut Brian Winters. They're going to have an all new offensive line in a year where they essentially don't have any time to practice. This is such an important concept of. like, oh, they're just doing training camp and missed the OTAs. Training camp isn't real. Sean Payton said a couple weeks ago that this year's training camp is being called training camp, but this is not training camp.

Last year, teams were putting padded practices on in late July. This year, they're not going to do potted practices until between August 17th and like the 22nd. Offensive linemen don't really practice at all until batted practices. So when you've got an offensive line that has to gel themselves with four new guys and then Levi-on-Bell is to learn it a run behind them, also they never should have signed Levi-on-Bel because he worked between a good offensive line

and was all patient. And he's got a terrible offensive line. Every layer here is just something that I don't like. So I'm staying away from Levion and the guys around him being drafted around like the 40th pick or so. Calvin Ridley, Juju Smith-Schuster, James Connor, Tyler Lockett. Those guys are all way better and way more exciting to me. Higher floor and higher upside.

All right, Craig, who's another guy you're avoiding this year? So avoiding is a bit of a stretch, but I am tentatively avoiding Derek Henry. In the first round, You're basically splitting hairs. So fantasy pros, half PPR leagues, which is what we go by, has him going as the sixth player overall, number six. I think that's like three spots too high for me, which I think counts for this episode because it's the first round. Well, we will summon the council, DK, does this count? We'll go through the normal arbitration process.

What does it count as? I'm dropping, I'm dropping him by like 30%, 33%. I'm just confirming with the council. Decad, does this count? What is it, what are you asking me? Does it count as part of the episode? Well, Craig was hesitating on if it counted. So I thought there was a little opening, but then you weren't paying attention.

Is moving the first round? We're keeping all this. Is moving a first rounder from spot six to spot nine count as like, like players to avoid? Oh yeah. I think so. Because I think if you're sitting there, if you're sitting there at number six. If you're sitting there at number six and you don't want to take a guy, like you have no He's not going to be there at your next pick.

Okay. You're fading him. All right. That was painful. Craig, please continue with your Derek Henry takes. I regret interjecting. It meant. All right.

I think, first of all, Derek Henry needs a nickname. I don't know what it is, but he needs a nickname. We'll come back on that later. So it's not that I don't think he's going to have a good year or anything like that. I just think last year was the best year he's ever going to have. And I'd rather have Michael Thomas.

I'd rather have Devonte Adams. I think I'd rather have Clyde Edwards Halear maybe, Joe Mixon, even Kenyon Drake. It's his lack of everyone. receiving. It's the ridiculous Tennessee Titans year last year where they scored touchdowns on 77% of their red zone trips, not just field goals. 77% of their red zone trips, they had touchdowns, which is nuts. The next best team was 10% lower. And Derek Henry's weird because he starts slow every year he's been relevant. The first eight weeks the season last year, he was the RB10,

which is fine, but he was one point ahead of David Johnson. So I just want to toss that in there. just will screw you to all the people who hate David Johnson. And then he kind of has these like three week explosions that like jolt him up into like the RB2, RB3 category. If Derek Henry didn't have his like ridiculous 75 yard catch last year, he would have gone from the RB2 to the RB3, which I actually think is kind of funny. But yeah, Derek Henry had that stretch of 180 yard games,

which had never happened in NFL history before. But the problem is what happens is it's kind of like putting your head in the freezer and your feet in the oven and calling it room temperature. And it's like in reality, you have these extreme spikes. Hyvitz is going to be a great dad. That was a really good analogy. Thank you for that. I've never heard that one.

I've never heard that either. But I just don't like him right next to Dalvin and Kamara. I just think he should be a little bit later. His lack of receiving upside, he has to basically hit that same thing again last year. The Titans were nuts efficient. I just don't think they're going to do it again. If he's there at number 10, are you grabbing him, though? Yeah, I think that's right around.

I'm good, 9-10. So this is like draft specifically where you're in the, six, seven spot around. You're just not taking him there. The bizarre thing about Derek Henry, and I think the reason that we all agree that the top tier of running backs is McCaffrey, Saquan, Zeke and Kamara,

and then we kind of all have Cook there. The reason that those guys are at the top is that the bizarre thing about Henry is that every given week, you're not actually confident he's going to go off. The first four guys every week, almost no matter who they're playing, they're really great matchup.

And Derek Henry could easily get you 20 carries or 60 yards. Yeah, and it's like Kamara Kamara could have eight carries but he'll have four catches for 40 yards that'll completely save your day. Terrick Kendry needs a touchdown and he needs 20 carries and it's just, I don't know, it's kind of scary.

DKed, do you have another player you're avoiding this year? I do. Let's talk about Kuber Cup for a minute because he just, right now he's the wide receiver 13, ADP of 35th overall. Again, that value just scares the hell out of me. I mean, last year from week nine on, so essentially the second half of the season,

he was the Y receiver 30. And that had a lot to do with the fact that the Rams changed their offense around. They went two tight-end sets more often. They were basically trying to just jumpstart things and they had to change things up completely. We don't exactly know how they're going to do it this year. If they're going to go back to that 96% of the time, they're going to do three receiver sets or whatever. But I don't know. It just makes me nervous.

I think, you know, we've talked about Bobby Woods on this podcast a lot. I just think he's so much better play at his ADP. then Cup. And yeah, I just think he's also due for negative touchdown regression. He had 10 touchdowns last year. So, you know, that could potentially regress in the wrong way. And so, yeah, just right now in that area where he's getting drafted, I'm just not really interested.

I mean, there's just guys in that spot, DJ Moore, AJ Brown, O'Dell Beckham. I mean, I just would rather take my chances on those guys than go with Cup. And, you know, just because we don't really know what the Rams office is going to look like. Yeah, this is really simple to me. in the first half of the year, Cooper Cup was third in the NFL in receiving yards. And then he fell off.

And then in December, the tight end, Tyler Higby, led all players in receiving yards for December. Like, that includes, like, Michael Thomas. So I'd rather, like, basically Higby's role came at the expensive cup. I'd rather bet that Tyler Higby is going to continue that

and take him in the ninth round than bet that Cooper Cup will do the first half in the fourth round. Yeah. So let me be the devil's advocate here just because there's three of us and two of you agree. And I actually do agree, but I'll be the devil's advocate.

What about Brandon Cook's gone? How is that not going to help Cooper Cup? Well, I think that Josh Reynolds or whoever ends up playing on the outside is going to take that Brandon Cook's role. So it's not like a one-to-one replacement. I don't think he's going to get all of Cooks's targets necessarily. The thing that makes me worried the most, I think, is crucially, the Rams offense was way better in the second half than it was in the first half overall.

And that makes me a little bit nervous that they're going to try and kind of follow that blueprint this year. A big reason, I think part of the reason at least, was because their offensive line just wasn't able to do what it had been doing the last two seasons. Like they went from the best offensive line in the NFL maybe, or at least one of the top offensive lines into a bottom tier offensive line.

And that really, really affected what they were able to do. So they had to switch things up completely, do much more two tight-in set, things like that. So it makes me worried because they didn't really upgrade their offensive of line over the out of season. They could just go right back into that kind of what we saw in the second half of the year where Cup is not the number one receiver on the team, but just

a part of that offense. So it's valid if you're a big believer in Cup that you look at the first half of the season and think that they're going to go back to doing like a three-receiver set. And he could, if they do do that, he could absolutely go off. But I'm banking on them following the blueprint of what they were able to do in the second half of the season last year. And that is not a good thing for Cup, in my opinion. And Cups going 25 picks higher than Robert Woods, who, by the way, Robert Woods played a hundred more snaps than Cooper Cup did last year. We're legally obligated, Craig. Do you want to get your infomercial in for Robert Woods? Well, I've done it so much. I mean, I could just do like a 15-second one. He's the ugly stepsister of the Rams.

Robert Woods is, and his time of reckoning is coming. He scored two TVs to Cooper Cups 10, which doesn't make any sense. He played more steps. He played more snaps. They have the same amount of catches every year. They have the same amount of yards every year. And Robert Woods runs the ball for about 100. yards every year. He's just a more complete player for the Randolphins. Cinderella. Okay, someone who's not Cinderella, I don't know how that story ends. What, there's a pumpkin or something? His character ends. You don't know how that story ends? She finds Prince Charming and they drive away

in the pumpkin, the glass slipper. All right, well, someone, because pumpkin's also like a bad thing. Like, if you're like a pumpkin, it's, I always get the mixed metaphors confused. Anyway, the point is Debo Samuel in the 49ers, I would not draft him. That is where I'm going here. Really simple. He broke his foot this offseason, had a Jones fracture. Might return for week one,

but the injury has a high risk of re-injury. The orthopedic journal of sports wrote in a study a couple years ago that 50% of all players of the previous Jones fracture demonstrated incomplete healing. It's just not a great injury, even if you return on it, that it just saps the kind of player that Debo Samuel is. Trent Taylor on the Niners had a foot injury last year at five surgeries and missed the season, not to compare, but just to show that the Niners understand the risk of these kind of injuries going wrong.

Debo's still going like top seven or top 80 I wouldn't take them inside the top 100 and 20-130 he's a purely upside thing to me but I would much rather grab Jalen Hurd or Brandon Ayuk who both of whom were former running backs and have that same kind of yards after catch potential that Debo Samuel unfortunately

it's not a 20-20 guy to me I feel like haven't they already kind of conceded that he's going to miss some time yeah but I'm saying it's not reflected in draft position it's not reflected even in some rankings it's just I just wouldn't I don't really want Debo Samuel unless he's one of my last two picks before taking a defense.

Right. And I was agreeing with you. I'm saying, yeah, that he's going to miss some time. It's almost like a given at this point. We got to talk about who on the Niners you want because it's like someone, who do you want? That's a pass catcher, obviously besides George Kittles. This is the number one thing to watch for me in training camp. To me, there's this assumption that the first round of rookie Brandon Ayuk is going to take the job.

Jalen Hurd has a very similar skill set and missed the whole year last year with injury, but he's a second rounder. He's good too. This is something that you just have to pay attention to 49ers training camp and see who's getting reps. I think reps are currency this year even more valuable than usual. So this is just sending a watchin training camp.

But, Dekad, you have another person you're trying to avoid this year? You once again, screwed up the order. I'm up. Fuck me. Oh, my God. I, honest to God, what happened is I saw Cortland Sutton

and I was like, wow, DK loves Cortland Sutton. And I just was like, DK, they're just tired in my mind. Craig! Yeah. Do you have another player you'd like to avoid this year?

I do, and he is another Stephen Glansberg of the 2020 offseason. It's Cortland Sutton. What, so I got to sit here and you dessert alone like I'm fucking Stephen Glansberg? I get. Yeah, I mean, what do you want me to do? I don't know. No, then. It's fine. Relax, man. I'll see you later. It's fine. I'll be fine. No one's talking about Cortland Sutton. However, I'm going to talk about why he should avoid him.

So, Sutton is a receiver on the Broncos, first of all, just in case you don't know. My dad listens to this pod. I don't know. Maybe he doesn't know what team everybody. he's on. So he's on the Broncos. What's up, Dad? Did your dad have any embarrassing stories? Would he like to come on the podcast and talk about Austin Hooper bullying you? Yeah, you know, he actually did coach me in Little League, so he does that, yes. Wait, for all those stories, your dad was the coach? He was like the assistant coach. He was always there, or he was at the game. All right, we're going to return to this topic. Keep going, and Cortland Sutton. So, yeah, Sutton was a sophomore last year. He had a really good

year he had a breakout year. We can officially say he had a breakout year. He was rated really low last year. Matthew Barry had him at 120. Evan Silva had him at 74, which is higher than most. And he finished as the wide receiver 18. Sorry, he finished as the wide receiver 19. This year, he's being rated as the wide receiver 18. So they're essentially asking him to do the exact same thing this year. That's where people predict. I don't think that's going to happen, and here's why. Last year, he came into the season next to Emmanuel Sanders, who was recovering from an Achilles injury. A lot of people didn't even think he was going to start the season. Emmanuel Sanders has then traded halfway through the year.

He also was competing against a rookie tight end, Noah Fant, who struggled early. And the only other person he really competed with was Deshawn Hamilton, who fizzled out as a slot player that never really worked out. And there were two non-receiving running backs, really, in the backfield. Now, this year, he's competing against year two Noah Fant, who is expected to make a huge leap and had a strong second half of the year. Maybe one of the best wide receiver prospects we've had in the last. years in Jerry Judy, and that they also spent their 46th pick in the draft on KJ Hamler, as well as acquiring Melvin Gordon, who is one of the most competent wide receiving backs in the league.

So I just think there's a lot of malice defeat in Denver this year, and he's going, Cortland Sutton is getting drafted with guys like Calvin Ridley, Juju Smith-Schuster, and Tyler Lockett, and I would rather have all of them by a landslide. There's a stat called Air Yards, and we love Air Yards. And Air Yards is basically if every pass a quarterback throws was caught, and then the player was immediately tackled. Basically, it takes yards after the catch out of it. It's about how far things are thrown downfield.

Every team has a certain amount of air yards. Obviously, you'd think, so Michael Thomas led the Saints and the percentage of air yards, right? And that was the number one in the NFL? Just kidding. No. Cortland Sutton had the most air yard percentage of his team in the NFL. He had 43% of Denver's air yards,

which was number one in all of football. and he still wasn't a top or barely a top 20 guy. I don't really understand how he's going to get 20% again. Lead the league. That's preposterous to me. So I agree.

DK, your rebuttal. DK is making facial... Your cheeks are contorting in ways I have never seen. That was me pondering the abyss. I was wondering if I disagree. I don't really disagree, actually. I think you guys make good points.

And I do think there's just a lot more amounts of feeding that offense now. and Jerry Judy's probably going to get a ton of targets. We don't know KJ Hamler's role. No fan. I think he could have a breakout year. So, I mean, I do agree with all that stuff. I guess the devil's advocate, you know,

rebuttal would be, you know, if all those guys are drawing the defense away and giving Cortland Sutton more opportunities to kind of like get one-on-one's downfield or something like that, maybe that could help him be more efficient. You know, he may not get as many air yards or targets or whatever, but he might, you know, do more with those targets.

So I don't know. I do agree with you though. He's probably a slightly overpriced and I'm probably not going to get him because of that. But I do think he, I mean, he's a really good player. He was basically quarterback proof last year.

Very, very consistent game in, game out. So I think you could do a lot worse. He's like sort of the anti- Mike Evans. He's like this big like go-to guy downfield. But he scores the same, like almost the same amount of points every single week.

You might not get like the 30 point like bursts or whatever, but you're going to get like 15 points a week. Yeah, I just think he's around too late or too early. I think I would just take him around later with like T.Y. Hilton and D.K. Metcalf The issue is receiver is really deep and you have to be really picky with receiver this year because it's really easy to make a case for like 15 of the top 17 guys. And if there's so much you don't like, I mean, they stand out. Everybody loves game shows.

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DK. Is there any other receivers you're trying to avoid this year? Yeah, I'm not, not going to have very much Stefan Diggs this year. He's going as the wide receiver 24, so low-end wide receiver 2, ADP of 60. I'm just worried about it's all the same stuff that we were talking about with the D'Andre Hopkins pick. And it's very much applies to Stefan Diggs. And specifically, his style and his main talents, I don't think necessarily mesh really well with Josh Allen. And, you know, not to harp on it, but it's something that we really have to consider going into

this year. But Alan was really, really bad. last year, throwing deep. He was the second worst quarterback in the NFL, second only to Kyle Allen, who is not going to be a starter this year. And adjusted completion rate on his deep pass is 30.9%. So less than a third of his deep passes got completed. 64 passer rating on those throws was fifth worst in the NFL. Diggs got half, more than half of his yards on passes of 20 plus yards last year from

Kirk Cousins. And all six of his touchdowns came on those plays. So I'm just a little bit worried about Diggs getting the type of volume, getting the opportunities on those deep passes to really make a big, big, big factor in fantasy. And so I'm mostly just avoiding him. He's just not a guy I'm excited about taking in that range. All right, Craig. Any other receivers you're avoiding this year? Yeah, two guys.

Ty Y Hilton on the Colts and Brandon Cooks on the Texans. Hilton is going to be 31 this year. he's already got a hammy tweak, which seems to be perennial with old TY. He's really good, and he often placed their injuries, I feel like, and when he's healthy, he's pretty solid, but he's got a new quarterback. I know it's Phil Rivers. I just don't think he's got the upside that other guys have. I don't think his best season is in front of him. He's getting drafted around guys like DJ Chark, Robert Woods, Devonte Parker, and even Terry McLaren, I think I'd rather have all of those guys over TY. He may end up, you know, seeing a lot of balls or a lot of

targets and stuff, but I'm just kind of worried about his longevity, his size, his age. I just, I would rather have a younger guy. Well, it's the oldest person here at D.K., do you have any qualms with that? D.K., how's your hamstring? As the resident old person, I agree with Craig. My body is just completely falling apart. I can't, you know, I can't do anything. Can't barely move around these days.

So, yeah. I am a few years older than two-a-time. Yeah. Imagine 10 years in the NFL. Oh, my God. I mean, I'm picturing what it's got. to be like to be Philip Rivers at this point. I mean, Philip Rivers is actually about my age.

Or his poor wife. I know, Jesus. So, yeah, no, I would agree with that. I don't think I'm going to have any Hilton this year. I think they're going to be probably a low-volume passing offense. I don't know if I trust necessarily Philip Rivers anymore at this point. You know, he just looked kind of shot last year. I don't know.

It's just one of those guys I'm not really excited about. It's not a lot of sexiness and a T. T.Y. Hilton pick. No one's going, wow, great pick. Yeah. Would you rather have AJ Green or T.Y. Hilton? Yeah, Hilton. I think I might have, I think I might go green. I mean, they're the same age. Actually, I think, yeah, I think they're the same age. We've already heard whispers at a Cincinnati that A.J. Green looks like his old self.

So I'm buying, I'm buying AJ Green this year. From what training camp? Was it like him on a Zoom in his backyard? I don't even know if they're actually practicing. Yeah. I don't, yeah. So that might just be total bullshit. I think when people say those things to listen to the actual quotes from players because sometimes the question is, does A.J. Green look like his old self? And the guy's like, yeah, AJ looks like his old self.

And sometimes they're like, how's A.J. Green looks like, dude, A.J. is unbelievable this year. He's cutting. You want to look for specificity in those comments? Instead of vague, nice things to say about their coworkers. Right. And you also want to look for actual tone because sometimes they're just kind of saying,

you want enthusiasm. That's like the two keys to tell which of those stuff. Sometimes you're saying nice things about coworkers. So somebody I'm not enthusiastic about is Brandon Cooks and the Texans this year. Obviously, it was on the Rams last year, got traded. Texans got rid of DeAndre Hopkins. That was kind of a lot of cooks in the kitchen this year for Houston. Oh, you're better.

Like that. So in the year where chemistry is key, blah, blah, blah, blah. I want Will Fuller because, one, he's got the chemistry with Deshawn Watson, and they're going right after one another in drafts. They are right next to each other in drafts. Wide receiver 36 and wide receiver 37. Cook's was not good last year. He played 14 games,

and he had 42 catches for 500 yards, two touchdowns. His 16-game pace was not much better. He's had three confirmed touchdowns. I've seen people say he's had, I mean, three confirmed concussions. I've seen people say he's got four or five. He had two last year. He's only going to be 27,

but that scares me a lot. And if I actually want anybody on the Texans that's not Brandon Cook's and Will Fuller, I think I would take Randall Cobb before I took Brandon Cooks from like a value perspective. I'd rather have... Raygobs is going as 236 right now. Obviously, I would rather have him

than freaking Brandon Cooks at wide receiver 37. I'm just not trusting of his new team, his injury history, and he was terrible last year. I don't really know what's to get excited about. He's fast? I agree on Cobb and I agree on Fuller because you've got to respect the chemistry.

There you go. All right, let's look at tight ends real quick. D.K., are there any tight ends you're avoiding for this year? Yeah, I'm not going to have any Zach. Kurtz at his price. I mean, it's late third, early fourth round. In that range, there's just so many other really, really

interesting enticing receivers and potentially even running backs. I mean, Odell Beckham, AJ Brown, DJ Moore, J. Moore, Juju, Ridley, Sutton, right in that range. Zach Ertz has been bitten by the boring bug. He's just boring this year. Absolutely. So, in leagues where you only have to start one tight end.

I just think it's a value question. It's a opportunity cost question. If I'm not getting either Kittle or Kelsey early on, I'm waiting a bit. on tight end. I just, I can't pull the trigger on Zach Hertz

that early on in drafts. I just think your opportunity cost is too great. Plus, I mean, like, what if Goddard absolutely just like, comes on really strong

this year, eats into his bottom line. At some point, Ertz is going to start falling off a little bit. You know, he's been, he's been,

you're the, you're the Zach Hertz and I'm the Dallas Goddard. You better be worried. I'm coming for you. By that, you mean someone named Dallas

is playing against Dallas because you're someone who was with the wrong name on a podcast about Danny, so you and I have a name Danny. Tushay. Are you going to change your name or not? I'm thinking about it.

Okay, cool. We already changed the pod name. We gave in. I'm going to change my name to fantasy. Yeah. So I don't know. Zach Hertz, he's one of those guys.

It's like a high floor option, but not super exciting in that range. Who else? A tight end, the person I just keep scoffing at is Jared Cook. I look down my nose at him. No offense to Jared Cook, but I don't think he cares what I think.

I look down my nose at him. He's being drafted as a top 10 tight end because he was a top 10 tight end last year. He had nine touchdowns last year. He had nine touchdowns in the previous four years. Like before last year to go find double digit touchdowns, you to go back to when the Rams were in St. Louis. So that's unlikely to repeat. He's 33 years old. And they signed Emmanuel Sanders. So who knows what his receiving role is last year? So not only is he going to lose stuff within the Saints passing offense, but overall the Saints are probably going to be passing less throwing less

touchdowns because Drew Brees had a career high touchdown rate last year. So there team-wide, they're going to pass less thrilless of touchdowns. And then within the passing game, Jared Cook will get less of it. Smaller pizza, fewer slices, don't like Jared Cook. Taysom Hill quietly is going to ruin Jared Cook's fantasy stock. There's a take. Nice. There's my take.

Where are you drafting Taysam? I mean, you can get him really late. I would take him like in the last round, second to last round. I think he's actually super interesting. Him or Kamara? At the number four spot in the draft, I would go Camara. Yeah. All right.

Well, you know, any position. You know, he's kind of like the Ben Zobrist of football. You could put him in anything. Get both. I'm actually writing. I'm writing about Taysam Hill right now, and I'm kind of like super intrigued with him this season. I think they're going to,

they gave him freaking 16 million guaranteed. I think they're going to use him a lot this year. Down the stretch, they used him quite a bit more during the last part of the season. So if they expand his role, the problem is he's a quarterback. So, oh, that'll do it.

I'm just kind of. banking they're going to make like Yahoo or ESPN or whatever's going to make him like a tight end or a running back or whatever and then that changes everything so stand by he is a flex he just be called flex that's fun actually I'm going to start doing that now wow there we go all right this isn't this is

we're not going to we're not going to veer into taste of middle territory quite yet but we'll see we got one more person that we want to avoid this year one other person I'm avoiding in drafts this year is running back Antonio Gibson for Washington obviously running back darius geis for Washington was released on Friday a couple hours after he was arrested on charges related to domestic violence.

He was arrested on one count of strangulation, which is a felony, and then three counts of assault and battery, according to the Washington Post. There are a half dozen or so backs that might replace him in the Washington backfield, but the one that is kind of getting the most hype around him is Antonio Gibson, who's the rookie from Memphis. It doesn't really make any sense to me why he's going to be an important fantasy person for 2020. I don't really get it.

He had one game in college where he had more than nine touches. He had, I mean, not counting. Yeah. I mean, he went to East County. Carolina Community College, but I mean, in the Division I football, one game of more than nine touches. He gets 77 touches in two seasons. For context, Adrian Peterson had more than 80 touches in December.

So I don't really understand where the NFL workload's going to come from. And then running back coach for Washington, Randy Jordan said this week that, quote, he is still clay when it comes to running back. Clay is in moldable, like isn't a set firm person, not been in the kiln. And then John Kime, he is for ESPN reported that Gibson is currently in meetings with both the running back and receiver rooms, which means he's not even getting full-time stuff with the running back. So he's like a gadget flex player, but he's not going to be getting significant carries. So I don't really, I don't, Antonio Gibson's going way too high. I don't really think.

So are you saying once again, it's going to be Adrian Peterson leading the backfield? Yeah, so Peterson's a veteran guy. Peyton Barber is actually a veteran guy in a coach's favorite. And then J.D. McKissick's the third downback. And you have Bryce Love there. So I would avoid this field, but I would avoid Washington for several reasons. But Peterson and Barbara seem like they're going to get most of the carries here. But I would stay away from this backfield. Why did, D.K., a question for you. Yeah.

Why the hell did they draft Antonio Gibson then? It just sounds like he's bad and there's no experience. Or not he's bad, but like, I don't understand. He's really talented. It's just he's not going to get a lot of touches now. Let's lay it all out. So, number one, yeah, he's not bad. He's inexperienced.

He didn't get a ton of carries in college for some reason. Like, primarily in 2018, he was behind Daryl Henderson. So Henderson was like going off. Memphis that year. So he was stuck behind a good player who did get drafted in third round, obviously. And is now Lance Dunbar. Right. We'll see. So he's never had more than nine touches in a college game

and everybody was like, let's draft him in the third round. Well, that's how talented he is, but it just goes to show in fantasy, it's about volume. He's not going to get volume. Like, maybe he'll build up. But in the shortest off-season there is, that's not the one year. He's going to ramp up from 77 to 200 touches. It's unlikely or

I would maybe probably bet against it. but I do think he's intriguing. And right now, I mean, like, if you can get him really late in your draft, like I think he's worth it, if he, if his, if his ADPs, like, jumps up a significant amount in the next few weeks because of this Darius Geis News and all that, then I can understand being nervous about it. But from like a measurable talent, skill level type type thing, he is essentially the same athlete, size, speed, explosiveness, all that as Jonathan Taylor.

I mean, he's like, he's, he's, he's, he's, he's, he's, he's, 230 pounds runs a 4-3-something, 4-4. You can jump out of the building. He's really, really athletic, really versatile. You can almost look at that talk about him cross-training with the receivers is a good thing, especially in PBR League because maybe he's their de facto slot receiver or whatever on, you know, early downs. No, but that's my point. So he's never going to start.

Never? Or just this year? No, I mean, in the year of 2020, he's not going to start anywhere if he's splitting time positions. because if they wanted him to be a running back, they'd be, well, you need all the practice you can get at running back. If they want him to be getting multiple disciplines, that means he'll be a jack of all trades, master of none,

except he won't be a jack. He'll be more like a seven of hearts. And then later in his career, he'll build it up. But him making an impact as a rookie to me would be shocking. An impact not like, oh, he's got a couple touchdowns, but in a way that you can predict and put him in your lineup ahead of time,

I would be shocked. Yeah, so for context, here are the guys going where he's going right now in draft, the other running backs. Naheem Hines, Boston Scott, on the Eagles, Antonio Gibson, and then right after him is Damien Harris and the Patriots.

I think we'd rather have all those other guys, right? To be clear, I'm not saying he's not talented. I'm not saying he can't be a really good pro. I'm saying that he's one of the least experienced players I've ever seen being projected to have a significant role as a rookie. Right. That's all.

It's a huge barrier. I'm just saying, you know what? Maybe year one isn't the year to buy Antonio Gibson. That's all I'm saying. All right. All right. Now you know who to hate. Now you know who to write down.

and just cross them out right before the draft even starts. And it's not people to hate. It's people to socially fantasy distance from. That's what you can think of it. Exactly. So we're socially distancing from these people. All right. Thank you to DK.

Thank you, Craig. Thank you to everyone for listening. We'll see you guys on Monday.