The Ringer NFL Show - Power Ranking the 10 Best Season-Long Prop Bets

Episode Date: September 7, 2022

Welcome to another season of Power Hour, where we rank something fantasy football or NFL related every Wednesday throughout the regular season. To kick things off, we power rank our favorite season-long prop bets. We finish the episode with another edition of Fantasy Court. (5:53) - Lamar Jackson, Ravens (8:06) - Diontae Johnson, Steelers (10:10) - Justin Jefferson, Vikings (12:25) - Courtland Sutton, Broncos (14:38) - Russell Wilson, Broncos (19:36) - Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs (21:50) - Rashaad Penny, Seahawks (24:00) - Darnell Mooney, Bears (26:12) - D.J. Moore, Panthers (28:16) - Mike Evans, Bucs (31:26) - Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars (34:32) - Kyler Murray, Cardinals (37:30) - Fantasy Court Check out The Ringer’s Fantasy Football Rankings for tiers, sleepers, and more! Email us! [e-mail]. Hosts: Danny Heifetz, Danny Kelly, and Craig Horlbeck Producer: Craig Horlbeck Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Mac Jones is ripped. Matt Patricia's calling plays. The Celtics are title favorites. And The Ringer has a new Boston show. I'm Brian Barrett, host of Off the Pike, the show covering all things Boston sports. I'll have shows multiple times a week covering your favorite teams and with your favorite ringer and local guests.

Plus, maybe Bill will stop by to rant about the socks. Follow off the pike with me, Brian Barrett, now on Spotify. Welcome to the Ringer Fantasy Football Show. My name is Danny Hype. I am joined by Danny Kelly and Craig Quirlebeck. And today it is power. hour every week we will be power ranking something on Wednesdays during the season and this week we are power ranking our favorite season long bets on Fandall Sportsbook. I had my favorite

season long props from Fandall Sportsbook. Craig and Dika sent me there as I power rank them all. They don't know the order of it. I do. So we're going through all our favorite season long prop bets. And if you're not familiar with power hour, it's very simple. We're going to power rank our favorite bets. And after two minutes, you will hear this sound. Tom Tom, Tom, Maybe. It's back. It's courtesy of Tom Tom. If you haven't heard us to Power Hour before,

we wanted the sound to be from fantasy by Mariah Carey, but we couldn't get Mariah Carey to respond to our request to use the song. So we just used the song that she samples in fantasy, and it's a whole thing. I mean, we'd love Mariah Carey's fantasy to be the theme song of our entire show, let alone this episode specifically. Right.

So if you know Mariah, talk to us. Someone just get Mariah into fantasy football. This show is getting more and more popular, which means the odds of us getting, Mariah's cousin to listen to this show are increasing. Do you know how many emails I got about people listening in the shower? There's a lot of people that listen to the shower. And it just made me realize a lot of people listen to this podcast.

We have to be weird at the end, not the beginning. Let's keep going. Let's keep it moving. Also, important announcement. We're going to have in-season rankings, start-sit rankings at fantasyf football dot the ringer.com this year. If you liked our draft guide, hopefully it did. Every week, I know we get a lot of starts-sick questions.

We're going to have our rankings right there. that we'll have super flex rankings. We can also sort by position. So you can see our quarterback, running back, wide receiver rankings, all that jazz, tight ends to everything. And so you can sort by position. You can see everything. And it's going to be great.

So we'll have that every week for you. You can combine running back receiver and tight end. So if you're trying to fill your flex spot, you can also see who we've got ranked ties there. So yeah, it's very, very useful on Sunday morning. Fantasy football. Dot the ringer.com. Before we get into the bets, one big overarching note on gambling. And before you listen to anything we say is,

don't bet overs. They're dumb. Like we're going to just, we're not very good at this. So we're going to just recommend overs and overs. Here's a good thing to know. I got the good note from Connor Allen

over at Bet Spurts. If you had just blindly bet every single season long prop bet, like a player bet, how many passing yards, receiving yards, whatever, every single under, you would have won two thirds

of your bets last year. Wow. Two thirds. Now, obviously, because you have to give juice on those bets, you know, you're giving 10% you're not going to win two,

like, you know, 16% money, but you'd be in the positive. However, this one also from Connor Allen, incredible. If you had just bet the under on rushing touchdowns last year for every individual player, those hit at a 77% clip and then passing yards and passing touchdowns. So both of them, for individual players, the under on players passing yards and passing touchdowns hit three out of four. So that was 74% unders. This is the year they all go over, though.

That's how I can feel it. It's a hard year. Yeah, betting overs is like picking that one tight end in like the 10 to 20 range that you think is going to hit. That's like betting it over for a wide receiver. Because the inherent truth is that for an over to hit, you need your player to probably play every game in the season, which is already a difficult bet in it of itself.

So unders, uh, boring, but safe. Yeah, well, what Craig said is key because there's two reasons. One, as Craig just said, like, if you're, if the guy gets injured, you're screwed. Yes. Not to mention all their teammates. could get injured. Like stuff happens. Like success requires a lot of little things to go right. And sometimes that just doesn't happen. It doesn't matter. Like even like this year, Cooper Cup, if Matt Stafford's arm isn't working like that, Cooper Cup can stay healthy and it could go wrong.

Not to mention, we talk about this all the time, but since it's a new season, it's always worth hitting again. Like, it sucks to bet the under. Who wants to bet against the player doing well? That's not fun. So the lines are already artificially kind of propped up because you're always trying to be positive. It's really just dumb and kind of just a giant exercise and self-control. Unless you hate the player for some... Yeah, that's true. So with that said, we're going to go recommend a bunch of overs. Right.

I think we know how high-vitz's power ranking is going to go. I can't imagine there's going to be an over in the top five. Although my over is pretty good. So, yeah, with that said, we're going to power rank our favorite bets for this coming season. And again, Craig and D.K. submitted their bets to me that they like. They gave me no context. And I ranked them along with mine. If I'm being honest, I liked all of mine better than theirs.

but I thought that would be like that content. So I jumbled it around. But before we begin, should we commit to actually betting all 10 of these? Or should it be the top five? How should we do it? I will commit to like the top six. And then we'll go from there. Okay.

All right. I already don't like where this is going. Anything after like five, I'm like, I definitely like as I progressively go down this list. I'm like, uh, all right. But with that said, power rank. our top prop bets, season long on Fandall Sportsbook for this season. You can start the clock, Craig. Number one, Danny Kelly, Lamar Jackson, under 3,500 passing yards. Under, D.K., why did you want to bet this? I can't, I just still can't believe. I was expecting all mine to be at the very bottom.

Lamar Jackson, let me get into it. So, as we know last year, the Ravens basically had all of their running backs get hurt. They had many of their offensive linemen get hurt. They ended up being, far, far different stylistically and philosophically than they had been in the previous years. They basically were pass heavy relative to them. And Lamar Jackson ended up passing a lot more than we expect it. I think that they're going to regress back to like sort of their normal style this year. They're going to be more run heavy. We're not going to see Lamar Jackson pass as much.

They just got rid of his top receiver and Marquis Brown. Yeah, so under 3,500 passing yards. That's what I'm betting on here. I think he's just going to be a lot more run heavy. What do you think? Well, more importantly, you kind of buried the lead. He hasn't even sniffed this number. I was going to say, how did you say all that, not mention that. Well, here's the deal. He got hurt last year. He was on pace for 4,000 yards passing last year. So I think that's why it's... But that's factored into Lamar Jackson. He runs it 15 times a game. Yeah. In 2020, he was on pace for 3,1,25 yards over 17 games. In 2019, 3,500 and 44-yard pace. So just over what this number is. So I think there's a reason that this number is. So I think there's a reason that this number is this number. But I think just if everything goes right for the for the Ravens,

or at least a lot of things go right for the Ravens, they're going to be much more run heavy this year. So if everything goes right for the team whose mascot already tore their ACA, yeah. Here's the thing, though, like you have to also probably bake in maybe Lamar gets hurt and misses a couple of games. He is like- Well, if he doesn't get hurt, do you like this bet? I still like it, yeah. I think it'll be close if he doesn't get hurt, but I still like it. Okay. Well, we're actually early on Tom Tom, because, Tom Tom's going to play right now. And that's never going to happen again.

This is the greatest start to a power hour of all time. I'm number one? I'm now nervous that high if it hates all my bets. I feel like that has to be the game. No, he's softening me up now. I can tell. You know, we can do that right now. Actually, my number two, Craig, Deonté Johnson under 950 receiving yards.

You can tell I wanted to respect that you guys choosing unders. You did. Craig, as soon as I saw this, I was intrigued. Yeah, I mean, he had last year. year he had 1100 yards the year before they had he had 960 but the key metric here is that he tied for second in the NFL in targets last year and he only had 1160 yards second in the entire NFL in targets he had the same amount of targets as devante adams who turned that into 1500 yards uh i mean the offense is not the same in so many ways right they obviously have a new qb and

mitch travisky they're going to have a different offensive scheme uh they're going to be way less focused on these little checkdowns to dante johnson uh there's going to be a way higher yards per attempt, which I know may kind of make you think, well, wouldn't he catch more balls for a higher depth of target, which may be true. I think he's going to have less catches for sure. And there's also just a lot more competition this year. We obviously have George Pickens is in the mold and could be the best receiver on the team. Chase Claypool seems to be healthy. Another year of Pat Friermouth. Yes. And not to mention that Deonti Johnson has always banged up. I mean, he actually has been relatively healthy in terms of like starting games, but he doesn't finish a lot

of them. And I'm willing to bet that, that, you know, if he needed the second most targets in the NFL to get to 1100 yards last year, I don't think he's going to get close to that this year. I think what made sense to me is when you, when you're looking for a bet like this, sometimes I think you, I've been increasingly thinking about luck as like surface area. You just want the most surface area to get something right. And as soon as I saw this list, I thought about how you always say how Deontay Johnson just is always leaving the game for some reason. He left the game in the preseason. He cut one pass, and he left the game with a shoulder injury.

And it's like, Deiote's always leaving the game with the injury, not to mention the George picking stuff, the working quarterback. And I was like, now it seems a little crazy to bet against Deontere the talent. But I was like, you know what? There's a lot of ways for him to get under 950. So I like this one, Craig. I think it's a good job. Thank you.

Agreed. Wow. On time again. Two for two. All right. Next one. I kind of like this better than yours too. And maybe I should have put this number one, but it felt.

really knowing to put my own number one. I have Justin Jefferson over 99 receptions. Now, is this stupid to bet on anyone to have 100 catches? Yes, don't care. He had 108 last year. Admittedly, you just yelled at us for five minutes about vetting unders and then you do this. Yeah, but this one's right. That's the difference.

It's like you're not getting it. Like everyone else is wrong. It's like the Tobias Fugkeke quote. What is it, D.K.? All these people delude themselves into thinking that it'll work, but it never does. but I think it just might work with us. I'm butchering it, I'm sure. It might work for us.

No, it's like he had 108 last year, and now they're doing the past first offense, and he's getting the Cooper Cup role for the guy who was the Rams offensive coordinator last year. I know that title's kind of a lie because McVeigh, the offensive coordinator. Who cares? Like, the whole thing is they're getting layups.

Like, they're going to move Justin Jefferson all over the formation. They're going to just get them all these quick passes, these basic things that just get ball into Justin Jefferson's hand. More. That's the point. And if he plays the games, I don't know how he doesn't hit 99 catches. Well, that's the thing.

It's like, I actually think we're probably overblowing the number of passes they're going to throw just a little bit here because I think it, you know, they still will be pretty balanced. And the Vikings were also pass balanced last year. They weren't an incredible, they weren't the Titans, you know. They were still like a relatively pass heavy offense. But I think it's the type of balls he's going to get. That's what I was going to say. That being said, like him moving into the slot where he's going to get more of the layup

throws, if you hit it on the head, I think it's just going to be. the volume is going to go up for him in terms of number of targets, number of catches. It's just getting him more involved in the offense instead of having him win with higher degree of difficulty plays. I think just getting him in the slot and getting those easy dump-offs, easy throws, is going to be huge for him

in terms of the volume of past as he catches. So I like this one a lot, actually. Yeah, I mean, I think the truth of it is, like, a lot of these overs will hit if these guys are healthy. Like, do I think, there's Tom Tom. Do I think, you know, Jonathan Taylor's going to rush for over 1,300 yards if he plays the whole season. Yeah.

Is Jamar Chase going to catch over, you know, over 1,125 yards if he plays the whole season? Yeah, this is essentially a bet that I think Justin Jefferson's not going to get hurt. My fourth one, I'm going back to back on myself here. I have Cortland Sutton for the Broncos over 65 catches. Oh, that's pretty low. I know that, that's exactly it. I know that like, you know, again, you know, again, overs are dumb, whatever, don't care. Corlin Sutton had 58 catches.

his last year with Teddy Bridgewater. He's now going to be the guy. Wow, that's a very juicy number. Yeah. Isn't it? And the other part that's underrated, obviously, Coralton Sutton, Russell Wilson,

big quarterback upgrade, et cetera. I do think Cortin Sutton's going to be the number one for Denver, not Jerry Judy. But the underrated part of Denver, they're going to be up-tempo. They're going to run more plays. Like last year, Seahawks dead last in place,

as you always said, D. Denver was like 28th. Like 28th, 28th in pace. The Broncos with Russell Wilson are going to be way fast. And so they're just going to have way more plays, way more throws. I love Sutton over 65 catches. There's a world where he does this by Thanksgiving.

I like your confidence. The Broncos ran a lot of plays last year with a different head coach. But now that they have Nathaniel Hackett, and Hackett's coming from Green Bay. And they are like notoriously one of the slowest offenses in the league. You don't think that plays a role? No, because they're doing everything how Russ wants to do it. Russ wants tempo.

Dude, believe me, as someone who's heard during the offseason, during the preseason and training camp, it's been a yearly talking point. Like up tempo, up tempo, up tempo, getting a two minute offense style thing, but like all quarter. Like Russell Wilson is obsessed with this. And after forcing his way out of Seattle,

forcing a trade, coming into Denver, like they are going to, I think the odds are that they're going to, you know, placate him and actually do some of the things they want to do. There's already all these reports about how he has like this mystic connection with Nate Hackett and all this stuff.

Mystic? give me a record. Aaron Rogers is the monopoly on mysticism this offseason. Mystic is maybe not the word that they use, but it's like a magical relationship or whatever. It's a shame that Russ couldn't have Nathaniel hack it over to his house to spend a night because he doesn't have enough bedrooms. He can sleep in the pool house.

What was it, 25,000 square feet and four bedrooms? Yeah. I should have asked Russell Wilson about that. I can't believe I didn't. Oh my God. This is a great bet, though. Highfit. 65 is low.

It is. Well, speaking of the fifth, I actually have D.K.'s bet. Wilson most regular season passing touchdowns. The only thing I don't like is it's 16 to 1, which feels low. But I see, DeK, why do you think Russell's a serious job? You don't think that's good enough odds? I was going to say, tell me how confident are you that Russ will lead the league and passing touchdowns?

All right. So last year he broke his figure. Let's throw last year out just for the sake of argument. Two years ago, he threw 40 touchdowns on the Seahawks when they were trying to be like, you know, run balance, all that stuff. That was second most in the NFL. He did that on 558 passouts. attempts. For comparison, last year, this is granted one more extra game or whatever, but Brady

led the NFL with 43 passing touchdowns, so three more than Wilson did in 2020, on 719 attempts. Herbert threw 38 touchdowns on 672 attempts. I think Wilson is going to easily hit his career high in past attempts this year, and I would bet there's a strong chance. He also hits career high in touchdowns. Like, this is a good team. This is a good offense. They have good skill players. He can spread the football around. It's in a gauntlet of a division where there's probably going to shootouts. As much as it's going to pay me to watch this, I think there's a very solid chance

Wilson is the leader in touchdowns this year. He's just so fission. Well, here's my question. Because I've been thinking about that 2020 Seahawks season for a long time. The problem was it was the story of two halves. In the first eight games of that season, 2020, Russ actually had almost

30 touchdowns in eight games. And then in the second half of the season, they started playing too high, the whole too high thing. They did it to Russ first, honestly. And then he had like 12 in the second. So he went from 30 touchdowns in the first half to like 12 because the way to beat the two high, like more checkdowns, more middle the field stuff, more easy throws.

But like Russ doesn't do that. And I'm curious, D.K., how you think Russ is going to respond in Denver to just needing to take the easy stuff when, whether it's his height or just his habits or whatever, he just doesn't take easy stuff. He just demands on doing the hard stuff and deep throws. Right. Well, that's part of the reason. I'm actually like the fact that he just refuses to do that is actually probably a good thing

and the fact that he apparently has the support of the coaching staff here which is going to I think have a longer leash for him to do the let rest cook stuff and then like be high volume be up tempo all that stuff because like in the past with the Seahawks like if Russell Wilson starts turning the ball over even a little like Pete Carroll's like hits the eject button on anything that's going like he's stopped like he puts a stop to it immediately. So I think he will have more turnovers and maybe it won't be quite as efficient, like, insanely efficient as it was with the Seahawks, but I still think he's

going to have way more passes, and that's going to translate into more touchdowns. So I think that's a valid. I think it's definitely a valid point, but I still think just the volume is going to be there for him to like really go off. By the way, I forgot to run the timer on this round, so I probably went over two minutes. I was debating whether to say anything or not. I was like, do I call him out? Now we'll just rev it up for the next round here. here. Well, since you forgot the timer, it's not disrespecting Tom Tom. I don't know how I feel about 16 to 1 on anyone to like lead the NFL and touchdown passes. Let me pull up the other odds here

the other guys. I think it's pretty solid. Like if you look at some of the other ones, I like Wilson a lot more. Let me see here. Wilson is tied with Derek Carr, Aaron Rogers, and Kirk Cousins. They're all 16 to 1. Then there's a huge drop off to guys. God, Kyler Murray is plus 3,000. There's no one really below that. That is that, that, that, that, that piques my interest. There's, you got, you know, Matt, the top seven are Herbert, Josh Allen, Mahomes, Stafford, Burrow, Dack, and then Russ. But passing touchdowns, he's 16 to 1.

Do you have any interest in that, D.K.? I mean, I guess so. That's interesting, but he's always been, like, a big play guy, not necessarily, like, I don't know. Maybe things are different now, and, like, that's what matters, and maybe he will be up there in yards this year. No, I think the touchdowns make more sense. I still feel like the offense is going to be more balanced,

but, you know, Russ has always been the guy who has 230 yards but four touchdowns. Right. Like the moonshot touchdowns down the field? I don't know. Hold on. Trey Lance is 100 to 1. Like,

I mean, I know that like Trey Lance might not be good at football, but remember literally two years ago, Lamar Jackson just went from like barely being a player to just leading the NFL touchdowns? Is it crazy to go out on Trey Lance at 100 to 1? For, for yards or touchdowns?

Touchdowns. Is that insane? 100 to 1. If this season happened a hundred times, Trey Lans can't leave the league. So sane. Is it so sane? Are you crazy?

Am I? Or am I so sane that you just blew your mind? It's impossible. Is it? Or is it so possible that your head is spinning like a top? It can't be. Can it? Or is your entire world just crashing down all around?

I mean, it's insane, but sure. It's insane. I'm out on that. Okay. I thought that was going to be tricky. All right, fine. Restart the clock. All right.

Next one I've got, Craig. Yeah. Clyde Edwards Allaire over four and a half rushing touchdowns. This is a fucking gimmy. Four and a half is wild. He had four last year and he only played in ten games and he lost 30 pounds from gallbladder surgery. He had four touchdowns.

Oh, man. He also had four in his rookie season and he played only 13 games that year and he got stuff like six times in week one right in the end zone. This year he's healthy and his team is likely to shift, although maybe not very much, but their offensive approach this year

a little bit to a more power running style feature the run a little bit more. Clyde could beat this total in half this season, in my opinion. He shouldn't have any competition. They didn't bring in anybody who's a real problem for him. Ronald Jones made the team. They have Jerk McKinnon, who's a third down guy. They have Isaiah Pacheco, who looks like the third stringer right now.

I mean, there is not a lot of competition going on for Clyde to dominate goal line work. Well, that's the question. Is Ronald Jones going to be the short yardage guy? That's the question. Yeah. Well, the obvious, I think, retort to this would be he hasn't gotten opportunities around the goal line since he was stuffed like five times in a row, his first game in the NFL. And then since then it's been like, they just use other guys. I do, I still like this bet because I think they just, this is his year to be like the starter, to be the guy in this offense.

And I think like there's not a lot of competition from both Jones or Pacheco or McKinnon, like for his specific role. the other thing that I liked here, Craig, which is very similar, but Clyde Edwards later over under on brushing yards is 650.5. Like, he had 500-something in 10 games last year. I think it'd be really funny

if Clyde played all 17 games and didn't hit either of these numbers. That's kind of what I'm thinking. I keep thinking, well, what if Ronald Jones gets all the short yardage and blah, blah, blah, and I'm like, Clyde has to get five touchdowns, right? This is how people lose money,

what I just did right there. That's how we just keep losing money over and over. He almost got cut like during the off-season. He just barely made the team. I like this bet. I'm going to lose money on it, but I like it. The reason why I like touchdowns over yards with Clyde is because like even if he gets hurt in week 12, like he could have three touchdowns in a game. I don't know.

Yeah. Yes, screw it. Let's do it. All right. The next one, this is doing long shots here. D.K. has Rashad Penny most rushing yards in the NFL this season at this one. I threw out the long shot. I wanted to do a couple long shots.

I like 50 to 1 for a shot penny. The guy behind him, Ken Walker has already had, like, hernia surgery. Here, let me get my pitch. Yeah, let me get my pitch. So last year, he finished seventh in the NFL in rushing yards per game. Granted, he only played in 10 games. However, three of those 10 games, he totaled 8, 9, and 7 yards. His other six games, he averaged at 134 yards a game.

So obviously, that's a small sample. I get it. But now, if he could stay healthy, and of course, that's the biggest. if, but I'm 50 to 1 that he can stay healthy. I think there's a chance that Pete Carroll's just going to ride this offense on Rashad Penny. Like he's going to be the heart of the offense. Like this is what Pete Carroll wants.

They traded away Russell Wilson. Geno Smith is going to be, I think, a game manager, but not necessarily like a high volume passer. And by the way, last year, if you remember, Jonathan Taylor, who was the rushing champ of last season, their team basically gave up on passing in the second half of the year and was just like, fuck it, we're just going to let Jonathan Taylor carry us, like, for good or bad. And that was the big part of the reason. He won the rushing title.

He averaged 106 yards per game. Like, the rushing title is not what it used to be. That is an excellent point as a part of this. 134 yards a game. And also, Craig. Like, yeah. Well, Craig went to San Diego State, and I'm like, four years ago, like, Rashad Penny straight up led the entire America in college in wrestling yards.

The entire America. And we're like 50 to one. that he's just, the lead back in Seattle will just not lose his job to the rookie who had hernia surgery and like maybe he'll just do it. Yeah, Penny, I mean, he was like fourth or fifth in Heisman voting that year.

But yeah, I mean, other than Jonathan Taylor who had 1,800, you're right. It's like Nick Chubb, Joe Mixon had 1,200. That's kind of it. So I'm basically saying like if Jonathan Taylor sprains an ankle could Rashad Penny win a Russian title. Yeah, we're not saying he's better. We're saying that 50 to 1 shit happens.

What if it stays healthy? Pretty much. All right. This one's not as fun. My next one, I'm calling my own number. I like this one. Bears receiver Darnell Mooney, over 925 receiving yards. What?

Did you like, did somebody take over your brain? You're all over. Well, I think that the, I think that what I was trying to do, look, all the unders are just the right bet. And that's why I let off with it. These are the overs that I like. And they're all going to lose, but it's fine. Under, just bet unders.

But if you're going to throw on overs, these are the overs I like. that like overall, you should don't want to 100% unders. You want to throw some in. I like this one for a reason. Like, darn. That's good. Cons? Yeah, thanks.

Cons, obvious. Bears, bad. Darnel Mooney. Probably like the worst number one receiver in football. I get that. However, he is the number one receiver for the Chicago Bears. 925 yards is like not that many yards, man. I mean, he had over 1,000 last year.

And Alan Robinson was on the team. That's the thing. So I guess that the argument here is, Alan Robinson leaving will mean defense is just blanket Darnel Mooney and just hope that the Bears other guys are so bad. But like, I don't know if I buy that. Like, Alan Robinson leaning, leaving means his, Darnel Mooney's total went down by a hundred yards this year.

Like, this doesn't compute. I feel like double teams in the NFL happens fewer, like less often than people think. Like double teams are, it's not easy to double team because like, then you're giving the opposing team like a huge advantage somewhere else. You know what I mean? Like, so I don't know. Here's the deal. Mooney last year, I saw this from FantasyPoints.com. They had 20, he has 26% target rate last year, which was sixth most.

And that was with Alan Robinson. Like, who else do they have now? And also, I think Justin Fields is going to take a jump this year as a passer. Like, it's not going to be a massive, massive jump, but he's going to be more comfortable. And I think in theory, they're going to have more plays that, like, allow him to do what he wants to do, which is throw the ball down the field, you know, boot out. He's not going to be, he's not like a really quick processing, you know, short, pass or that's like what they tried to turn him into last year.

I think they're going to let him be him this year, so he's going to be much better. It's going to be a messy 1,000 yards for Mooney, but it is still going to be 1,000 yards. It's calories. You know what I mean? It doesn't matter if it's healthy, but it's calories. Speaking of 1,000 yards, I'll go back to D.K. one more time. D.K., you have DJ Moore over 1,100 yards. All these overs. Well, the, oh, yeah, I've mixed feelings on the wrecks of the bat. I know. This is me sort of doubling down on my DJ Moore, uh, hot take or whatever.

or take purge. But if you look at his over-under, he's achieved this number. So his over-under is 1100.5. He's gone over on that the last three years with a combination of late career Cam Newton, Sam Darnold, PJ Walker, Teddy Bridgewater, Kyle Allen, and Will Greer at quarterback.

I can't overstate... Will Greer. Like how bad of passers all that group is. Like, they're bad passers. Still, he's averaged 75 yards a game over the last three seasons. If he plays a full year, again, this is basically betting

that he'll not get hurt. he'd go, at that rate, he'd go for 1,275 yards. So he'd go way over. He could still miss two games and still go over if he has this average of 75 perceiving yards game-ish. I just think Baker Mayfield is much, much better. I think DJ Moore is starting to hit, you know, the prime of his career. He's 25 years old.

Panthers aren't going to be good, so it's going to be a lot of pass-heavy scripts. It all just kind of adds up to him going off this year. This is exactly what Vegas does, guys. This is the black magic that they work. Like, yeah, if DJ Moore plays all 17 games and everything's decent, yeah, he probably will have like 1,200 yards. But like, he can play 15 games and so go over. Yeah, it's, I think Vegas factors in that people think, oh, God,

this line is 90 yards lower than he had last year. Like, what a steal. And it's like, well, yeah, he played every game. Being like, looking at these lines and being like, well, shit. I mean, he could probably hit this over if he's healthy. and like Baker plays the whole year and things are fine. Like that looks great.

But to me, it's like this is the trap that Vegas sets for you is that in your head, everything has to work out for it to happen and that's easy to imagine in your mind. And then by week three, he has a twisted ankle and Baker's shoulder hurts and you're screwed.

So Craig, I agree, but I don't really like the other bets you had. So I want to ask you, the last one you got, you had Mike Evans under 1,000 25 yards, which I kind of like is a hot take, but Mike Evans is like the thousand yards guy. so I wanted to know why did you pick Mike Evans to go under a thousand yards.

I mean, he's kind of the 1,000 yards guy. I mean, yes, he's done it for every year of his career, but let me, here are totals. That's the 1,000 yards guy. He has four seasons with 1,051, 1001, 1,0006, 1,035. So I don't think it's that hot of a take. He played 16 games in each of the last two seasons. And like I said, he had 1,06, and 1,035 in those two seasons. I think the buck's offense is going to be the worst

It's been with Brady He's also banged up right now He's always banged up. He's getting older. The Bucks O'Line is in shambles. There are once again a lot of wide receivers on this team. Julio is there now. Russell Gage is there. Chris Godwin seems relatively healthy.

Another year of Brady with the most awkward off season The Bucks have had. I think everything has to go right for him to reach 1,000 yards, which it has the last few years. I don't think it's going to happen this year. But my concern is, you know who's probably like the most aware person that Mike Evans has had a thousand yards every year of his career.

Brady? Mike Evans or Brady? Mike Evans. Like Mike Evans, like, let's be real. Sometimes players care about their stats. Like, part of quarterbacking does involve some politics. I'm not saying it's the main part of any quarterback's job, but like, let's be real. Like, Mike Evans is extremely aware that he's 1,000 yards and Brady's going to help him get to

a thousand. And so unless he gets hurt, Tom Brady's going to get Mike Evans to 1,000 yards. And you're betting on him between 1,000 and 1,025 or his hamstring just actually. up too much. But like Mike Evans wants to get a thousand. He had a thousand and six and you're like, dude, how are you nervous right now? He had a thousand and six and then a thousand and thirty five. No, I get what you're saying. I'm just saying I saw this and I was like, Mike Evans won't let himself get under a thousand. I was like my honest first reaction. But I believe it's true. I mean, the guy has like, he's averaging like 70 catches a year. I mean, I, I just think a lot

needs to go right for the bucks this year. And I guess it has in the past, but I think things are a bit grimmer and nobody wants to really realize it in Tampa. I'll say this. I actually like it more than the DJ more over 1100. I'll give you that. Yeah, how are you like the Baker Mayfield Panthers? And we're like, oh, that I'm always going to do it. Well, it changed my mind.

You're right. I changed my mind. I like the Mike Evans. Again, all unders are better. I'm just, yeah. All right. Damn it. Speaking of which,

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You had Trevor Lawrence to lead the league in interceptions at 10 to 1. Didn't he do this last year, too? Yes, he tied with Stafford. Yeah. Yeah, he's 10 to 1. He's not even in the top four. He's fifth in who will lead the league in picks, which I don't understand at all. Here's what I like about Trevor Lawrence leading league and picks.

He has two things that I think is necessary to make this bet. He has a long leash and he takes risks. And if you want to add a third component, they lose a lot and they're going to be down a lot probably. Here are the guys with worse odds than him, aka the guys who the Vegas thinks is more likely to lead the league and picks. Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, who could get benched and who's hurt. Davis Mills, who could get benched. Baker Mayfield, who could get benched. Trevor Lawrence can't get benched.

He's not going to get benched. He's going to play all 17 games. pretty much no matter how bad he is, and they're going to throw it a ton. The guys after him, James Winston could get benched. Trey Lance could get benched. Like, Trevor Lawrence is the only guy,

I think, that has a 17-game lock on the season. Warren Sharp went on Bill's pod last week and just vehemently made the case for Trevor Lawrence's under on interceptions this year. So Craig sent this in and I was like, ah! Craig, Warren Sharp!

hitting them against each other. Are you just saying, oh, Sharp said no, so I'm saying no. No, I think Warren had two really good points which is why I bring it up, which is his point where it was, one, Doug Peterson actually limited the Eagles to 15 picks or fewer every year of his career. And like even with Pete Carson Wentz and bad decision making, like even Carson Wentz's pick percentage was like half of what Lawrence's was last year.

And basically the fall from Urban Meyer going to Doug Peterson, I think the turnover is going to be cut in half. And Warren didn't say this, but I think the most obvious part, Trevor Lawrence threw seven picks in his first three games. Like he just wasn't ready for the season. And then after that, it kind of buckled down. He had one bad game against the Titans, which in retrospect, Urban Meyer was fired shortly after you had four picks.

But otherwise, Lawrence wasn't really bad after September. And so, I don't know. I guess 10 to 1 is not terrible. I don't really think it means he has to be bad. I think it just means he has to be throwing a lot, taking a lot of risks, and they're down a lot. You know, it's like a lot of quarterbacks throw a lot of interceptions. Like Matt Stafford tied for the league leading interceptions last year.

That doesn't mean Matt Stafford is bad. I was going to say this is sort of a misconduct. leading stat category because like if you look at the top 10 guys in the NFL and interceptions last year it's like a lot of the best quarterbacks in the NFL like Matthew Stafford number one Herbert number three Josh Allen number four Derek Carr six borough seven Patrick Mahomes nine like this is a good list of very good receivers quarterbacks because they're throwing a lot I think it's like Brett Farve is the most interception of his career. Saw Young like had the most losses Eli Manning has led the league in interceptions like three times.

I like where Craig says that because Lawrence does have sort of a underrated yolo philosophy or like personality. Like he's not afraid to let a rip into like triple coverage. All right. We can do Trevor Lawrence 10 to 1. While we're doing long shots here, D.K., you also had Kyler Murray most regular season passing yards. Yeah, this one's super long shot. This one super long shot.

34 to 1. here's the deal every single season in Kyler Murray's career he's increased his yards passing yards per game he wants to run less he's told us this many many times

I think this year he's going to have the best group of offensive talent around him granted DeAndre Hopkins is going to miss six games but I think once he comes back like this is going to be a pretty loaded offense with Hopkins Zach Ertz Marquis Brown in theory hopefully Rondo Moore

kind of like makes a jump and is a service slot receiver. You know, I think there's a chance that he ends up getting better as a passer in his fourth year again. And by the way, he's gotten hurt every year. So that's like a big variable, I think that has to go into this. Like if he can stay healthy for the first time in his career, he has a chance to, like, exceed expectations by quite a lot.

If you go back to last year prior to injuring his ankle in week eight, he was averaging 285 passing yards a game, which is around, like, in any given year, it's like a 4,800-yard pace, which is like around third or something like that. If he makes even a jump from that, like he could break 5,000 yards in theory. Again, this is like a long shot, but I kind of like it because I think he's talented. I think the situation is he's not going to want to run a lot. He's going to try and, you know, carry the offense with his arm.

They have more weapons. Again, their defense, I don't know what their defense is going to be, is going to be good enough to like make it a, you know, like protecting a lot of leads. I think they're going to be like playing in shootouts more often than not. So, yeah, again, it's a long shot, but I kind of like the odds there. 44 to 1. I'm really proud of you for getting through that whole thing and not mentioning the video game stuff with Kyler Murray. He has something to prove. Chip on his shoulder year. I'm all in. Yeah. Chip on those tiny, tiny shoulders.

I do like it though, but like I guess the only issue is that is that the Cardos are kind of a balanced team, you know, they're not as running gun as you kind of think they are. With James Connor and Kyler running, like they actually are a bit more balanced than a team like, you know, Tampa Bay, who's just like throwing it at a 66% clip. Yeah. I think that's why you're getting 34 to 1. Right. If you look at some of the guys around here, Matt Ryan is 34 to 1 also.

Carson wants is 50 to 1. Ryan Tanna Hill, 50 to 1. Like it drops off precipitously. This is the, he's basically the last guy that I could see in this like entire group, really, to have like sort of a prolific passing season. So I just pick the guy with like the longest odds. Okay. Those are our season long prop bets.

Check those out on Fandall Sportsbook. All of them are going to hit, especially the overs, even though, again, like 75% of passing Yardage under his hit last year. Except for this year. This is our year for the overs. Yeah, put your paycheck on these bets and then send it to us and we'll shout you out on the pod. Don't do that. No, don't do that.

Emails. We got a great email from Kieran. Kieran. My 12-year-old nephew got into fantasy two seasons ago with his dad's help is now in the league manager for a family league. many of us had played before and this league was originally set up to be simple and kid-friendly, but as Kieran's gotten more into it, it's gotten just as competitive as our other leagues. This year, Kieran expanded the league to 12 teams and invited one of his good friends to join.

The friend even came over to his house for the draft. When we were about 50 picks into the auction draft, Deonté Johnson was being bid up to $42. That's a lot. Just as time is running down and we were all laughing. about the price of Deontay Johnson in the Zoom call. His friend reaches over and clicks the bid button on the nephew's computer. So the nephew's friend hits a bid on the computer. My nephew then wins the bid for Deonti Johnson at $43 for a player.

He did not want. This also represented most of his remaining money and left him with $30 to get a quarterback, a third receiver of flex, plus all of his individual defensive players and his bench. we still don't know if the friend did this to be funny or to get out of the $42. I mean, aside, just reading this, obviously both. My nephew was super mature about it. It did not throw a fit like I probably would have done in his shoes.

And I don't think he wants any compensation. Most of us only found out about this after the draft was done. But if this happened in your family and the nephew is more upset about it, what would reasonable compensation be now that the draft is complete and on the books or is no compensation needed since the Deonti overpay isn't that bad? What a king. I love that he's not even freaking out. Like, that's the type of person I want to be in a fantasy league with.

I think he should be rewarded a player of commensurate value on this other kid's team. Like, who did this other kid bid $40-something dollars on? Give him that guy. He gets to just steal a $43 player from his other friend's team. They trade him. I mean, that sounds crazy. But yeah, he does because the friend just did that. You can't just reach it to someone's computer and it did.

Maybe, do we force him to give him Deontze Johnson? So Kieran wrote in that his, Kieran's suggestion was, that the nephew should automatically get the first waiver pickup. But I actually think D.K's right. Just the kid gets the swap the player for anyone, $42 or less. Yeah. Ish. 42-ish.

This would have caused a riot in my family. If this happened, if my, like, brother did this to me. So he said his nephew was 12 years old, and he got into fantasy two seasons ago. So he was like 14. This is an age that is just perfect for losing my mind. and, you know, ruining a friendship, perhaps. Impulse control wasn't strong at this point in your life. Yeah, if my brother did this to me, I think that, like, I mean, I would end up in family

therapy. I don't even know. I don't even know what would happen. But this is a good life lesson. Never auction draft right next to somebody. You got to have your head on a swivel. Yeah. My question is, was the kid who ended up winning Deonté Johnson, was he even involved in the bidding

at all? Like if he was bidding it up to like in the 30s, that's less of a big deal. Oh, I see. Like if the nephew was the one at 41 and then his friend up it to 42. Yeah. No, that's still annoying if you stop. Oh, it's still annoying, but it's not as bad. Yeah.

The funniest thing would be it was like, oh, this is too expensive. I'm going to like dip away for a second and like, I don't know, go get sick from the kitchen. And then you just walk back and you have them. I'm like, that's bullshit. But if he wasn't bidding at all, that's a bit more severe than if he was like, okay with getting him at 30. Yeah. He didn't want Gianzzi Johnson at all. Yeah, like, who knows?

Maybe he was off, like, getting a slice of pizza, and his friends saw that there was an open keyboard, smashed them. That's such a big button. Did I ever tell you guys, one time in high school, somebody's computer was open? I think, I don't know where I heard about this. Some friend of mine or somebody's brother or something,

there was a computer open in a high school class, and I think it was like some type of break, or it was like, I don't know. And somebody walked by and saw a fantasy league open, and it was when Demerius Thomas was, like, one of the best players in the league. And this random person just goes up to this computer and drops to Mary's Thomas. Dude, that's so mean.

Oh, my God. That if you don't play fantasy football, I have to admit, is super funny. That person is an anarchist. That is, what do they get out of it? This is always something that I have found fascinating from the human psyche point of view. It's like, what does this person get out of, like, doing that? you know, just the rush of being alive

the rush of being a total fucking asshole. Some people just want to watch the world burn. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, that's basically it. Yes. I understand that now. But like, yeah, imagine Phanos in your fantasy league.

He would have sucked. Just disappear half the players. You know, Thanos could have just doubled the resources. That also would have worked. Oh, that's a bit harder, don't you think? No, he has all those freaking stones. He can do whatever he wants. He was like, there's not no stuff.

Got to kill everyone. Could it just doubled the shit. shit. He can't like double the amount of land. Yes, he can. Yes, he can. He's literally, that was the... Stones. How would that work, though? Don't we need the amount of water we have on this planet to like, you know,

to facilitate our ecosystems. You can't just add more land. Yes, he could. He could totally have done that. Then everybody would probably die and perish. With a snap of his finger. Then the animals would die, the food systems would all be out of whack. It wouldn't work. How? He's just duplicated everything. Like, yeah,

if he can kill half the people, he could just double something instead. No, I think he had a point. Craig, Craig, you're the asshole that went here on this person's computer and dropped DeAndre Hopkins. Yeah, what if I was just hiding the fact that it was actually me?

You wanted to see our reactions. It wasn't made. I promise. All right, that's all we got. And remember, our weekly rankings are going to be up at fantasyf football.org.com. So every week you start the questions, you can check out fantasyf football.org the ringer.com. Check out our rankings there.

Thank you, D.K., thank you, Craig. Thank you to Kieran. Thank you to the nephew. The calmest 14-year-old on the planet. Thank you, Lauren. Lauren. Thank you, Iggy Pop. Iggy Pop.

Yeah. Do you have a favorite Iggy Pop song? I can't name one, to be honest. I know what it sounds like. I don't know the name. Here, let me pull it up here. Oh, the passenger. How's it go?

Very popular one. Also, the name of the season finale of Westworld Season 2. Oh. You will recognize it, Craig. I guarantee you that. I'm sure I would. I feel like every time I give you a song that you don't remember or can't think of, and I tell you that you remember it, I get people tweeting at me and saying,

oh yeah, definitely did not know about this song, but recognize it for sure. Yo, if you Google Iggy Pop and just Google Images, the first one is so funny. It's like the Yorkshire. The first picture is unbelievable. Iggy Pop. Oh, wow. It's just him squeezing his nipple. It's ridiculous.

It's kind of a great photo, though. Really high quality. Like, that was on like a legit photo shoot. Yeah, it's the New Yorker. It's just with, yeah, it's wild. It's a wild thing. He's got chains on around his neck. It's pretty sweet.

Pretty badass. I didn't know he was designated the godfather of punk. I didn't know that was his kind of nickname. Same here. All right. Okay, that's all I can handle. All right, goodbye to me.