The Ringer NFL Show - Ranking Draft Value at QB, RB, WR, and TE

Episode Date: June 23, 2022

We take a look at the QB, RB, WR, and TE positions and debate how we feel about each as we head into fantasy football draft season. We look at the scarcity, depth, and potential value of each group to help understand where and when to select someone during your draft. (1:30) — QB (8:44) — RB (22:26) — WR (29:33) — TE Check out The Ringer’s Fantasy Football Draft Guide! Email us: [e-mail]. Hosts: Danny Heifetz, Danny Kelly, and Craig Horlbeck Producer: Craig Horlbeck Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

From the host that brought you to Coding Westworld. And Westworld, the recapables. Comes the Ringer Prestige TV podcast on Westworld. I'm Joanna Robinson. I'm Danny Heifitz. And I'm David Shoemaker. Welcome to Westworld Season 4 in the Prestige TV podcast feed, where we're going to break down every episode of Westworld season four.

Every Monday, the day after the show comes out on the prestige TV podcast feed. Wherever we get your podcast, but get them on Spotify. The Ringer Fantasy Football Show, my name is Danny Heifitz. And I am joined by Danny Kelly and Craig Warlbeck. Today we're going to talk about each position in fantasy this year. It's June. Like, you know, how depth we're going to go. We're doing a little zoom out.

We're going to go through quarterback, running back receiver, tight end, kickers. Just kidding. We're not doing kickers. We're going to do the other four. And we're just talking about how do we feel about these positions? Like, are they deep? Are they shallow? Who do we trust?

I feel like there's going to be a lot of trust issues. But I'm excited to do this. How does this make you feel? This is like a little bit of therapy session. It's kind of just a vibe check on each position. Yeah. It's exactly what it is. You can see our exact rankings at fantasyfutball.

Dot the ringer.com. We're going to be updating that through the summer, but you can kind of peruse fantasyfutball. Dot the ringer.com to kind of peruse our rankings and see what we're talking about here. I think we should just start a quarterback and just kind of dive right in here. Let's do it.

The theme for me with quarterback this year is it is deep as, I'm trying to curse less, but it's very deep. Like Aaron Rogers, who is the back-to-back MVP, is 11 for us. And he's 11 in most places. I mean, I don't even know what else to say. Like, if you kind of just tick, tick, tick, go through the quarterbacks,

it's kind of insane who's available at each spot. You know what's funny is my thought used to be that the gap between the best and mediocre quarterback is widening, so you need to grab an elite one. But now it's actually like, there are actually so many elite quarterbacks now that you maybe don't need to grab

like the first second or third one. Like, Lamar Jackson put up 21 points a game last. year and that was the eighth best quarterback. Like, that's pretty sweet. You know what I mean? So I actually think like the breadth of elite quarterbacks, there's like eight to ten truly like could be the number one overall quarterback. And even if they aren't, they will be really solid.

So once again, I thought I wasn't on this train, but I'm back on wait for QB. Yeah. I think it is and always has been the opportunity cost of taking a quarterback early on. Like if whether you're talking in the third round, fourth round, fifth round, whatever, there's always going to be, to me, at least, like, way more exciting skill players at those spots. Like, of course you're going to have the, I guess, reliability of Josh Allen, a Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, whatever it is. But when you can look at ADP and you can get a guy like Matt Stafford, who I still think is going to,

you know, have a really good year, like much later, like four or five rounds later, to me, the opportunity cost of grabbing a guy is still too high. It did feel last year at this time, though, like if it was starting to shift, like the, the late round quarterback wasn't necessarily like the only way to go because that's something that we've been talking about for years. But I feel like I am still sort of just back on the late round quarterback, especially in one quarterback leagues, two quarterback leagues, it's a whole different ball game. Well, the quality is stunning, and I want to go through it.

So Josh Allen's like the consensus number one. And you go through the rest of the top five, it's in whatever order you want to put admit, honestly. Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray. It's an pretty incredible top five, especially you could take the fourth quarterback out of the board. still get like Lamar or Herbert. And then the rest, that's like clearly the top five.

Alan Mahomes, Herbert, Lamar, Kyler Murray. And then the next tier, Jalen Hertz, Tom Brady, Joe Burrow, Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott. That's 10 players. Think about that. If you are the last person to take a starting quarterback in a 10-teen league, the last person take a quarterback, you're going to get either Dak or Russell Wilson or Joe Burrow or Tom Brady.

Like, like it's so deep. year to the point where my real advice for fantasy this year, my real actual true honest to God advice is if you are not in a two quarterback league, like if you're a main league with your friends is still just you can start one quarterback. This is the year to start the group chat and just ask people like, do you want to do a two quarterback league? Super flex. It doesn't even have to be two-flex. Yeah, super flex. It's like super flex. It's like there's a quarterback and then there's a flex spot where you can start it. You can start it. Not spark. I don't know what sparting is. But you can start a quarterback or running back receiver tight end so that it's a two

quarterback league, you always want to start a quarterback if you can because they score the most points. But if it's like bi weeks get involved, you can still throw another player there so you're not screwed if you don't have an extra quarterback. But in a world where Aaron Rogers, the back-to-back reigning MVP is not in the top 10. He should be a, he should not be in a bench player. Never mind talking about like Derek Carr and like all these other quarterbacks that could have good seasons. Yeah, Kirk Cousins. So I saw Trey Lance if he's good. There are so many quarterbacks. I just think it's time for it to kind of. it become like maybe almost the standard

that everyone should really be in two quarterbacks. We should definitely be pushing for Superflex. I love Superflex. My like long time high school league switched to Superflex last year. There's just too many good quarterbacks now. Like we are no longer in the era of like, Peyton Manning puts up 55 touchdowns while other teams in the league are like stuck in the 90s.

There's just too many good offenses, too many prolific quarterbacks now. Like literally like Hyatt said, last year 11 quarterbacks averaged 20 or more points a game. 11. I mean, think about the players that if you just, let's say you're in a 10-team league and everybody drafts a backup quarterback. Aaron Rogers is a backup.

Matthew Stafford's a backup. Derek Carr, who has Devante Adams now as a backup. Kirk Cousins, the Justin Jefferson and Thieland's a backup. Trey Lance, if he's really good as a backup. Like, I mean, it's kind of astonishing the quality of the guys. So I guess I also just fundamentally, again, not to get all on my high horse, but I also feel like it's fantasy football. and in a fantasy football draft,

the entire premise that, well, you know, you just quarterbacks, you know, who cares? Just take the last one. It doesn't matter. It's so ludicrous. When you're in a two quarterback league, the first five picks, two or three are usually quarterbacks. Like you can take Josh Allen number one

in a super flex draft and it's fine because the scarcity means it's really important to get quality. And so it just feels spiritually way closer to football itself when the first quarterback got, the conversation, I would be pretty happy if long term we stopped talking about like, should the second pick be Christian McCaffrey or Derek Henry? And if it was more like,

do you want to take Patrick Brooms with Josh Allen this year? Like that just seems more representative of actual football. I don't even really, yeah, I don't even really care about that. Like, I don't think fantasy football has to be really close to like real football necessarily. But when you get to the point where I'm thinking about which quarterback I need to get in a one quarterback league about as much as I'm thinking about what kicker

to get, That's where I'm like, we should probably, these should be more important. Quarterback shouldn't be an afterthought. No, I like playing a game where Patrick Mahomes is irrelevant. That's fun. Okay. Which is at one point, like Tom Brady's going behind Josh Jacobs in a draft. This is fantasy fucking football.

And what person's fantasy is Josh Jacobs on your team before Tom Brady? It's ludicrous. We should fix this. And like a two quarterback league or a Superflex or whatever, it adds, all it does is it adds another position to the mix of things to care about because it was pretty much just running back wide receiver and tight end. And adding quarterback doesn't take away

from any of those three. Those are still there. Now you can just debate which quarterback should I take in the first round because you're going to have to if you're in a Super Flex league rather than just like

it literally doesn't matter I'll take Matt Stafford in the eighth round and be fine. That's over. Now there's another position to debate about. I think Superflexes are way better. So I really, it's your play.

Check in with your group chat and like ask people to do a super flex league. However, majority of leagues are still one quarterback league. Yes. And in those cases, I still think right now what you should do is, bundle together the quarterbacks that you love, your top tier, even maybe top two tiers of the guys who you're like, I'd be happy with any one of them.

I truly think any one of them could be the number one quarterback in fantasy. Put that list together and in your draft, take like the guy who ends up at the bottom of that list. Don't reach for the one at the top. Grab the bottom two or three of those. and whenever around it comes or whatever price in your auction draft, and that's my recommendation. I agree with Craig.

Okay. You guys want to talk running back? Yeah, baby. I don't know. I feel like DK. Yeah, DK. I feel like you have a lot of trust issues with the running backs this year. I was telling you guys off the air, like, I genuinely just, I don't trust any running backs this year.

Name a running back. I don't trust them to play a full season, be exactly what we thought they'd be. There's red flags and or question marks around literally almost every court. Did you hear Craig say Jonathan Taylor or are you just choosing to ignore him? He might be the only one. I think even with Taylor I could make up reasons to be nervous. Like the touchdown regression thing or whatever, you know? Like he is by far the top guy, but there's still enough like, I don't know.

I'm just still like, oh, well, he might get hurt. You know, like that's kind of where we are running backs. What's the happy Gilmore thing? He's like, it's so old. He's too old. And it's like all the running backs are old. No, you keep saying that. That's not from Maffy Gilmore.

Which one is? That's big daddy. Oh, yeah, my God. So old. Yeah, right, I keep confusing that. So Christian McCaffrey and Derek Henry, obviously, are coming off injuries, and that's weird. But if you just, talk about the age. Christian McCaffrey and Saquorn Barkley are both 26.

But, like, you know, they've both gotten hurt a lot, 26. Alvin Camara, Dalvin Cook. Sequin's 25. What? Sequin just turned 25. Is he a guy? He's, oh, Deiqon is like the guy that I'm actually, like, most confident in this year, which makes no sense. That's bizarre.

But, well, you should, I want to reevaluate your confidence in the decks. But Alvin Camero, Dalvin Cook, Zeke, Echler, Fornett, and Aaron Jones are all going to be 27 by the beginning of the season. And it's not like old, old, but that is when you start getting to that spot where you're like, should you be investing in younger talent? And I think that there's just such weird questions about all these guys. I kind of agree with D.K., and I'm at the point where somehow, some way, after Jonathan Taylor and Naji Harris and, the running back I'm like most confident in is Cam Acres who tours Achilles return in five months and averaged like a yard and a half per carry

and I'm somehow like well that's that's the guy I believe and I'm like what's going on? I'm big on post Achilles year two after Achilles guys Yeah this is the Clay Thompson It's called a market inefficiency Corollary I want to throw my word to put you guys

on my thoughts on running backs this year and you can try and like clean it up So basically don't you agree that looking at the numbers is still, despite all the shit we talk about running backs, there's still nothing more valuable than having that guy at running back. Right. If you hit. I agree. The 2021 Jonathan Taylor, 19 McCaffrey, 17 Gurley, 2016, David Johnson. Like, if you could have anything, that is your, that is the elite choice, right? Number one, by far. Because the receivers, usually there's not as big of a gap. Like,

Cooper Cup kind of had an outlier season, but most of the time, like, the wide receiver one is just like a little better than the wide receiver too. The 2019 McCaffrey's in the 2016 David Johnson's like sometimes there's guys that just kill everybody else like Jonathan Taylor. But the problem is, so that would make you think, right? Well, then you should draft a running back in the first round. But the odds of selecting that guy is so fucking impossible. And if you just select any of the wide receivers in the first round, you know what?

Odds are they're going to be really good. They're going to be the wide receiver one, two, three, four. But because running backs gets hurt so often. I'm actually like, I don't even want to try and find the 2021 Jonathan Taylor. I'm good. Like, I'll take the running backs in the second and third round and hope that they become the 2021 Jonathan Taylor, which was Jonathan Taylor. I mean, he was selected in the second or third round.

So I'm like, dude, I'll take Cooper Cup, Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson, because I know exactly what they're going to be, even though they're not going to score as many points as like the 2021 John Taylor. I don't care. I want the security. But the guys you just said, literally the three guys, you said Cooper Cup, Jamar Chase, and who? Justin Jefferson.

Oh, well, I think about those guys. Cooper Cup was a mid-round pick last year. Jimar Chase was going in like the 50s. Cup was going in 30s or 40s. And then Debo is also going in that range. And so you're talking about guys going in like the fourth or fifth round. And part of him is like, don't you want to find those receivers? Because that's the flip side is why don't just take a running back early and have him be like your main guy, your lead singer.

And then you kind of fill out the rest of your band with either like a Travis Kelsey who somehow was like lower in fantasy, even though Tyree Kill is gone, and then also just loading up on all those younger receivers and hoping that one of them pops. Because to me, it's not worth risking spending $68, $72 in an auction draft on Derek Henry, and then it gets hurt, and your whole league is torpedo.

That's like, just take Justin Jefferson. You will be fine. I think this is like the question for fantasy entering this year. And I'm half kidding about this, and I'm half very serious. I almost want, when we put out the full fantasy guide this year, our full fantasy rankings in late July, we're going to have all the bells and whistles.

I almost want a setting on there that's like aggression, aggressive or conservative. Because for like years, we've always said this thing. It's a Matthew Barryism of just like, you can't win your draft in the first round, but you can lose it. That is the question of whether that is still true this year. Because like, if you're aggressive and you go into a year being like, well, if you're a 10-team league, I have a 90% chance of losing.

So go for it. Take Christian McCaffrey, who points per game is maybe the best player in the history of fantasy. And if Christian McCaffrey does stay healthy, I'll probably win. Or at least I'll probably make the playoffs. I'll probably make the championship game. Same with Derek Henry if you actually stays healthy. Or you can actually be like, actually, no, I want to be conservative. I want to just get on base with my first run pick.

I don't want them to get hurt. Then it's like, well, then maybe Najee Harris. Maybe it's like you should take Taylor, Najee Harris. And then it's Cooper Cup, Justin Jefferson Chase, as you just said, Craig. But it's less about like analysis. and it's way more about your philosophy and like risk tolerance of what you want to do.

But let me ask you this. Don't you think the odds of, like let's say you take a first round running back like Austin Echler or McCaffrey, don't you think the odds of those two finishing as the number one running back in fantasy is honestly no different than taking Alvin Camara and hoping he becomes the number one running back in fantasy?

To me, there's no real difference. So it's like, all you're doing is rolling the dice that none of these guys get hurt and running backs get hurt all the time. I'm literally basing. my entire philosophy this year off running backs get hurt a lot. So I think I'm just going to take a wide receiver in the first, maybe a wide receiver in the second, and then be like, you know what, I'm going to live off of Clyde Edwards,

Helares, DeAndre Swift's, Javante Williams, Sequin Barkley. Because I think the odds of Sequin and Javante Williams being like a top of three running back in fantasy is honestly pretty damn similar to Austin Echler being the number one. This whole conversation is another reason just to play Superflex because then you could just take a quarterback and I have to have this thought process. I think it's, to me, it's funny because, you know, when I'm doing drafts, a lot of times I'll follow pretty closely ADP, but then like tweak it to my ranks and how I feel about certain guys specific or whatever. But like, there is this pressure in the first round to not

fuck it up, not just that one in particular. Like, you can, you can take swings in the second, third round, but like, don't fuck up your first round pick. So, like, when, when you're sitting there and it's a running back, it's like the highest guy on the ADP list or on the list of, like, what you're drafting off of. It's just like, man, that is just so hard to make that call. So I think this is the year where I'm just going to be like, you know what? Fuck this. I'm just taking a receiver.

Or I'll just going to play Superflex. But I think that says more about like you going into a draft than it does about the players, honestly. I feel like you can look at McCaff-like, we always talk about, well, you can look at the same thing come over with a completely different takeaway as someone else. I almost feel that it's like in a different way. You can look at McCaffrey with someone else and come to the exact same. about what their odds are of getting hurt versus being the number one running back.

And someone's going to be like, I'll take them first. And someone else will be like, I don't know if I'm going to take them in the first at all. You know how they say like the stock market isn't math. It's psychology. Like I think drafting and fantasy football is almost the exact same thing. It's like it's a study of psychology. Also, sidebar, the difference between a, like a snake draft and an auction draft, don't you feel like your first round pick feels way different when you actually have to spend

money? Like to me, drafting a running back in the first round and a, the snake draft feels like nothing. But the second someone's like, 70 bucks, Derek Henry, I'm like, ooh. Let me go a step further. Let me go a step further. You know how when you pay for something on a credit card, it feels completely different than when you have to hand over cash?

Yeah. You ever pay for like, you go out with your friends? You ever had to pay for something like that with cash? You know, like, oh my God, I just spent like $75? What the fuck am I doing? And like, imagine if you're doing an auction draft or a side-kept draft, another we're calling it, but you had actual, had just, you know, a bunch of bills. And you had to actually hand over $80.

for Jonathan Taylor. It's also the, it's the psychological thing. Like Craig was saying, like when the auction starts getting bit up really, really high, and everyone else in the room is like, oh, oh, and then, like, people are starting to, like, look at you, like, oh, God, this guy better not fuck it up for you. Like, that's, like, the psychological pressure.

Whereas in, like, a snake draft, you're just like, yeah, I'm going to, I have to take a player here before. It's like shooting a free throw in an empty arena versus shooting a free throw in the NBA finals. It feels very different. I still maintain that, like, the single best draft advice I'll ever get. anybody ever is just like if you guys do a salary cap like that kind of auction draft it's kind of

boring to say this but the best way to crush that is you get everyone else drunk and just don't get drunk because when people start spending money when they're drunk it's just oh my god it's just a badanza i feel like yeah the leagues i've been in though some of the drunk guys do the best it's because they throw caution to the wind they're like fuck it i would have bid $75 on christian mcalfrey and he's going to score 27 points a game for me I still have, I have no advice for an option draft. I have no advice. I don't know how to do it.

Can I tweak my advice? Thanks, great. You have to be the drunkest girl at the party or the soberest, or the drive, the designated driver. Just don't be in the middle. Because it's just, to me, it's all a crapshoot based on your friend group. That's why I think it's really hard to give auction advice. Because sometimes the first person who gets nominated,

Kyler Murray's up on the board, sometimes that quarterback goes way more than he should or way less than he should, and you don't know how the market's going to be set. And it also is like how many people here are NFC West fans? Like it is very, very specific. Each auction draft is a case study. Also, you have personal rivalries. Every time I try to find value in an auction draft, my team sucks.

Well, so, yeah, you try to do like vague stuff and I'm like, oh, here are my people. In reality, every single year, my brother does basically no prep and then just like sees who I'm bidding on. It just bids me up a dollar out of everybody. Because he knows it's win-win for him. pisses me off, or he gets a player that I like. And so now I have to do this thing, where now I have to elaborately bid on players I don't like just to throw people off the set. Wow, that sounds like a lot of work. Yeah. That's what the whole Mike Davis thing was. Yeah. So, wait, I need to, what do you guys think about? So where do we lie? My philosophy is a second and third round running

back, in my mind is just as good as a first round running back. So might as well take a first round wide receiver. Where are you guys at? That's where I am. I'm not. quite there. I think that John, I'm, I am grappling with this in my mind, and I think that where I'm at is, it's about your risk tolerance in a league where I think, like, if I'm in an expert league with like a bunch of people who are like really good at this, like, if I'm in a league with like, well, not correct, if I'm a league with like D.K. And like, I won the fantasy league in the radio last year. But in a league like that, that's more competitive. I might be more risk tolerant and like, you know what? Give me McCaffrey. In a league where like a home league where I'm probably going to win the waiver wire because it's my job to follow the waiver wire and I'll probably be the best at it

just because I have paid to like spend time on that. I'm kind of like as long as I hit and get on base in that first round pick, I'm going to be in the playoffs. And that's kind of how, you know what I mean? I'm looking at underdog ADP right now, which is best ball rankings, best ball ADP during the off season. There's a lot of sharp people drafting and money's on the line. And some of the second round running backs based on the current ADP right now, I think I'd like, honestly, just more straight up than the first round.

What I'm saying? Like, Sequan Barclay, I think he's super underrated right now. Aaron Jones could catch like 70 passes. It wouldn't be surprised. Dandre Swift, same deal. And this is, I think this is a happy. Cam Acres is the three down back that no one wants to admit is a three down back. But I agree on that front.

Four net. I think that the real question we're talking about is do you trust Echler, Derek Henry, and McCaffrey, these older guys who have been really good to stay really good? I think that you're right that if you can get those receivers, but I kind of look at it. If you get Jonathan Taylor, I like Najee Harris a lot. You too. Joe Mixon might not play in third downs, but like that group, Dalvin Cook, who's in a new offense and is could be, I mean. Could be suspended. He could be suspended, but could catch way more passes this year.

I mean that Dalvin, Cam Acres, Sequin, round. But here's the thing. I want one or two of those guys because I don't really want to pick another running back for like 60 picks. I want to have, like, if I'm taking one or two of those guys, I want five receivers before I pick my third running back.

Do it anchor. I'm like down with that, but to me I'm just like, take those guys in the second and third rounds and then also have Cooper Cup. Yeah, that's the thing is like the James Connor and so-and-so. The Segoan-Barkley and so-and-so is greater than just

Austin Eccler only, who is already talking about how he doesn't want to have as much volume this year. So we're bleeding into receiver, though, here, but same thing, but look at the receiver position. It's like, I feel like it's the most first-round wide receivers we're even considering at least five years.

We had an argument about this yesterday, but, I mean, you can make an argument for Cooper Cup or Justin Jefferson at two. And you got Cup, Jefferson, Chase, Stefan Diggs, maybe Devante Adams could all go in the first round of drafts depending on how your lead feels about it and that there's also so many good young players and also I think typically in the first round

it's common that the wide receivers go in the back end right it's usually from 6 to 12 is where our receivers start to go I think this is the year where we're starting to be like I don't know maybe they should be in the first six picks of the first round you know wouldn't you I just like feel better picking like a cup or a Jamar Chase because it's what you were saying earlier It's just like you know that, you know, barring injury, these guys are going to produce big time.

And barring injury is a key point there because the likelihood of it, I know like predicting injuries is very difficult, but it's not in terms of historical data. Like receivers just get hurt way less. And I think that is so important. The problem is instead of getting Cooper Cup or Jamar Chase this year in the first round, it's you want to get those versions of those guys last year when you could have got them at like pick 40 or pick 50. Well, that's fantasy football in general. Yes, obviously. Yeah, but I think that you want receivers later. in the draft because there's this range kind of like the breakout receivers from like 30 to 60 roughly

where you can find those guys who could pop and you want to be throwing darts at those spots and that if you have one if you have it's just it's hard I mean obviously you could try to do both but ideally the teams who win are probably the teams who unearthed debo a Jim R Chaser a cup and I guess my point is that if you don't get lucky enough to find that guy the Cooper Cup fifth round who turns into the best player in the league, taking one of the top wide receivers is your safest bet to not fuck up round one. It's also important to remember that last year, I think a weird thing coming out of last year was like that second tier receive.

Like last year the top tier receivers was basically Devonte, Tyree Kill, I think Hopkins was in there and who's the fourth? But then like the guys after that just ghosted everybody. Like the guys in that second tier, you know, like Calvin Ridley. Like C.D. METCAF, C.D. Lamb. The guys in that second group just really ghosted everyone. And I think, AJ Brown had the very up and done season.

And, like, I think that's kind of the shadow looming over it of... That was specific, though. Very injury. Like, Russ got hurt. That's why D.K. went down. Dak got hurt. That's why C.D. went down. AJ Brown got hurt.

But, yeah. If I'm being honest, too, I think it's just so non-traditional to take those receivers up top. But I'm also fascinated by... if you're at the back of the first run, just taking two receivers. Yeah. So I keep thinking, and while we're having this discussion, I keep coming back to like the discussion or the argument of positional scarcity, which is you could, it's very easy to say like there's very few elite running backs in the NFL anymore.

So therefore, you should take them early on because you're just not going to find a guy like that in all probability later. Whereas you can do the same, you can get a guy who breaks out a receiver later. However, I'm also just like of the mind that this is the direction. We need to pay attention to the direction the NFL is going. Number one, there's more passing. There's more three receiver sets. And teams more and more have devalued the running back position. So they're using, you know, multiple guys.

Up to three guys, four guys sometimes at running back throughout a game. They don't want to like wear these guys out, run them into the ground. You know, every time there's like reason for optimism about our, running back, like a post-type sleeper like Clyde Edwards-Hillard, who first-round pick in the best offense in the NFL or one of the best offenses in the NFL, like attached to Patrick Mahomes. Like, there's so many reasons to think this could be the year that he really goes off. But then the freaking chiefs go out and sign like multiple guys. They sign Ronald Jones.

They sign Derek McKinnon. They've got a couple of undrafted free agents that of, you know, people are getting kind of excited about maybe making the team. And it's just like, there's so many reasons for me to just be like, I don't want to waste my pick on Clyde Edwards-Lair right now. He doesn't even get goal-line looks. So to me, it's like the direction the NFL is going stylistically and strategically with the way that they use their running backs. It just doesn't, I don't know.

It just doesn't make any sense to like gamble, I guess, that early on taking a running back, at least in my mind. I know that like you have to have a lot of the time you have that elite running back to like win your league. But it's also like if you waste your first round pick, there's like no chance, you know? That's kind of how I feel. because in my mind, there is quote-unquote first round running back talent for like two rounds. So I'm just like, I'll just take... It's just flat. But don't you want to vacuum that up then?

So in that case, though, don't you want to get two of those and then just load up on receivers and everything else and not worry about running back later? Well, the only reason I say no to that is because of, okay, cool, I took Derek Henry. Oh, his foot snapped in half week four and now my everything's ruined because I spent $78. Yeah. That's kind of where I'm at. I'm just, maybe I've been personally burned too many times. I think you've been personally burned. I think that's really what I'm hearing.

I think that you two are just like, you know what? You got like dumped and you're just having trouble like put, you know, being vulnerable again. It's probably, yeah. I mean, this is definitely, again, psychological. This is probably going back to things that happened last year. I keep listening to podcasts where it's like talking about some of the injuries and the probability that these things reoccur. The Derek Henry foot injury, there's like, I think I heard somewhere there's like a 20% chance based on historical, you know, data that he could re-enter that. It's like, that sounds like a high number. In addition to the fact

there's like other injuries that can happen. Yeah, right. He can also get hurt in different ways. He's got hamstrings. It's got gigantic quads that you could injure or whatever. You know, it's like, so I don't know. It's just like, I think I'm just getting scared off by all these guys. High Fitz is like last year, you were trying to convince us not to take Sake Juan and we didn't listen to you and we fucking regretted it. And, you know, obviously now he's kind of like the post-type sleeper that I really like. Yeah, but you know the difference. between him and Christian McCaffrey, you can get him 20 picks later. Right.

Yeah. So I don't know. To me, it's just like... This is really easy. Just take Cam Acres. Take the guy coming off the Achilles injury. He's the safest guy. Yeah.

That's very easy. I can't believe you're on Acres after telling us not to draft Seqon last year. Because I'm not even going to go into this again. The whole point was that the Sequan... No, no, listen. I get it. I get it. I get it.

Okay. Everyone just wanted to pretend that Jason Garrett wasn't his coordinator. Okay. And then they scored few touchdown. And then I had to hear about people making fun of me for that too. Anyway, oh. I think the bottom line is like we are just as a as a podcast, like very leery about this running back.

No, the bottom line I think for the, for is that you should have two quarter, you should have a super flex spot for quarterbacks. And then for receivers, I think you should have three receiver spots. Maybe that's too big for league. But quarterback, running back, running back, three receivers flex and a super flex. And a tight end, obviously. We'll talk. Obviously.

I kind of think there's so many wide receivers. No, tight ends. Everyone get over it. But let's talk tight ends for a second. So Travis Kelsey in full PPR, or half PPR, I forget which, was not the number one scoring tight end for the first time in like seven years or six years. Since 2015 in full PPR, he had been the number one every year. Mark Andrews Dthrown him.

So those are the top two tight ends this year. It's kind of weird because both Tyree Kiel left the Chiefs and then Marquis Brown left the Raven. So the number one receiver, well, so to speak, on the number one wide receiver on both their teams left. kind of interesting. And then you've got this other two of Kyle Pitts, Darren Waller, George Kittal. And then I would argue there's Dalton Schultz,

T.J. Hawkinson, and Zach Hertz, Dawson, Knox, Dallas Goddard. And then it's just everyone else. And I'm curious how you guys feel like, are you, would you do the dance of taking a tight end early this year or just,

you're going to plow through the morass once again? Trundle through the morass of tight ends. Dude, I'm taking one early. I don't want to have to fucking deal with, like. I'm at that same point. Musical chairs of trying to find a fucking tight end that'll catch three passes. No, DK.

My guy's going to do it this year. You know? I am so with you. The tight end 14 who I'm into, this is the year. Dude, I understand that we all just wish we could go back 10 years

and find Jimmy Graham in like the 13th round again. But it's going to be Albaidot for the Broncos this year. I'm telling you right now. However, I'm so sick of just, can we find last year's Pat Fryer? on waivers. Just don't do it. Like we called last year, we called streaming. You're trying

to stream defense. And we started calling streaming tight ends buffering. Yeah. And it's just like, it's penny stocks. Everyone thinks they know the company that's going to explode. And they never do. Gerald never. Just give me Travis Kelsey in like the 22nd pick. Just give me him with like the back of your second rounder. Just give me Travis Kelsey. And the peace of mind, I don't care if you're like mathematically maybe giving some like a small edge. I don't give a shit. I don't have the time to think about whether I should be starting like, I don't even know. No offense, catching passes from Gino Smith or Drew Locke, like in Seattle.

Who wants to, no offense, D.K., who wants to think about that in week nine? Don't you think tight end has this weird spell cast on all of us where we like, we look at the tight end 15 and we're like, this could be Mike Gassicki's year. I like Mike Gassicki's year. Man, can you imagine if I hit on the guy who suddenly became the top three tight end and I got him in the 10th round? Everybody does that.

Yeah. Cole commets, someone's got a catch pass as in Chicago. Gerald Everett? He's talented. Now he's with Herbert? This goes exactly to what I was talking about earlier with like the way that the NFL is going. And more than ever, teams are passing

like at a higher rate than ever. There's more three receiver sets on the field than four receiver sets and five receiver sets, whatever, than ever before, you know, maybe not in history, but like in the last 10 years, it's all trending forward for that. And I think the question you have to ask is like, as a quarterback and as a play caller,

like, would you rather pass it to your, like, elite, speedy, shifty receiver or this lumbering oaf in the middle of the field who's going to, like, catch the wall and fall down? A lumbering oaf. And the other thing is, like, in most offenses, this is a really big generalization, but, you know, I think it's generally true.

the tight end is not going to be like the primary in any play. Like if, unless you're talking about like Kelsey Andrews, Pitts, Waller, Kittle, like they'll be like third or fourth option on any given play. Like if you throw it to the tight end, you're giving up. Um, because they're like, you know,

all the other good options are covered or whatever. So, um, my point is to round it all out is like, I'm going for those guys that are either the number one or number two in their offense and then I just don't really care about the other guys. I think you're going to have to get really, lucky.

You know, like, a guy like Friarmouth, for instance, is kind of a popular take right now because he's blowing it up in in minicamps and OTAs and all that. But if you look at the offense, you've got Claypool. You've got Deonti Johnson. Even Naji is probably like a better option in the passing game. And then like if you're passing it to Friamuth, it's because like you're dumping it off over the middle. And he's going to need, he's going to have so many of these games where he has like four catches

for 38 yards. and he's going to need a touchdown to save your ass. And is he going to score 10 touchdowns? Like, I don't know. Like, it seems unlikely in this offense with this quarterback, whoever the quarterback is. So, like, these are the things that worry me. You know, even the guy like Hawkinson is like now that it seems like the third

or fourth option is offense because the lions are getting a lot better at receiver. And so, I don't know. To me, none of these are really that exciting. And I just would rather, like, spend up on one of the guys I know is going to to be like a big focal point in the passing game rather than like a dump off option that's going to catch the ball and fall down. You know when you're scrolling through and you're like, I got some food in the freezer, but like I don't really want to eat it and you're like, you scroll through Uber Eats and you kind of scroll and scroll and you're like, oh, maybe that, maybe that. And then you go to

postmates. You're like, oh, maybe that, maybe that. And then you kind of look and you're like, I don't want any of this. And you just begrudgingly eat what's in your freezer. That's every week I think about streaming tight ends. And I'm like, I'm going to grow up, I'm going to go to the supermarket, get some vegetables and just draft Kyle Pippet. This is why when you guys were like obviously tight in I think Hyvis was like

an obviously tight end in its position I'm like I don't even care like if you want to make a tight it just replaces tight end with a flex position I don't care also this is another reason

why I like tight end premium because you can get away you can get away with a guy catching three passes for 58 yards explain what Titan premium is and then let me make fun of you

it depends I suppose on what league you're in but like 1.5 PPR versus 1.0 They get a booze over a boost, therefore they're more valuable relative to the receiver. Like, basically they can hang as like a start. One and a half points just for catching the fucking ball.

So a 15-yard carry. What's the actual reason why this exists? Like I don't, it's just because like, oh, man, no one cares about tight ends. It widens the field of players that you can realistically start and get like a good output from. I think that this is the worst combination of socialism and inflation. So why don't you just get rid of the tight-end position then? Because, oh. I don't know.

I like it. It's an offensive position. Draft ones that you think are going to play with. They don't get a boost. Give it what there's like five. One and a half PPR. The idea that like, it's like five good ones.

I get so triggered by this. You know what actually would help tight ends again? Two tight ends. I can't believe we're having this argument again. Points per fucking first down. Okay. I'm fine with that. Like instead of one and a half PPR, it's like every time the Cowboys go to Dalton Shultz

and third down, that's worth the point. I'm actually not against this. I like this idea. I think points per first down is, like, while we're just throwing out big changes. Oh, geez. We don't know. I'm not going to do my whole.

This is only our second episode back. And he's already doing it. Look, I have come to peace. I think PPR is a little silly. I think that if you catch a ball for zero yards, you shouldn't get more points than running for, you know, six yards at a first round. How many people are rolling their eyes right now?

They don't have to be mutually exclusive. I'm saying even in PPR leagues, I think people should add points per first down. You should root for your players to get a first down. Tideend premium should be points for first down for tight ends. Only tight ends? Listen, I don't think it makes any sense to give any position some weird advantage. They are all players on the football field.

Pick the ones who are going to play the best. Also, because then we're going to start doing this shit for running backs. Where does that end? You're bringing out the slippery slope argument. Yeah, this is crazy. Dude, all I'm saying is the Tide Premium thing, it makes, it widens the field of players that you can start and have, and field a competitive starting lineup with. But it also makes Travis, but literally it's something people introduced because

tight ends were like, oh, it's hard to stream them. We'll just like, now you can get Gerald Everett. But then Travis Kelsey's like a top three pick because he's a receiver who is a tight end label and it's ridiculous. So Kelsey's awesome. Why would it matter if he's the top three picks? Because he's awesome. He shouldn't, his catches shouldn't be worth more than the other chief players' catches. Yeah, but he's 2505 pounds. Like, these other guys are 210. It's like, this is a, this is, I don't, I don't even see the difference. I don't care.

Like, I think it's cool. Is this a convincing? I don't, I think it's insane. I'm with Craig. I think it's insane. They're big lumbering oafs in the middle of field. You got to give them an advantage. You just said, Travis, you know what? Travis Kelsey, can we contact him and be like, D.K.

called you a lumbering oaf. Would you like to come on the podcast? Who falls down to the middle of the field? No, not him. I'm saying the guys after the top five are a big lumbering. Kyle lumbering oaf pits. No, I'm just looking down the list here. When do we go into lumbering oaf territory?

Cole Komet is a lumbering oaf. Hunter Henry. Is Dalton Schultz a lumbering oaf? Oh, he's the biggest lumbering oaf there is. Oh, can I give you guys another take on tight ends? I don't even know what we're talking about anymore, but I just, I can't believe we've never discussed this. I have a take on specifically running backs and tight ends.

Not really quarterback receivers, specifically for running backs and tight ends. You know when a player, like a deep sleeper, but like a lot, like a hyped guy is like maybe coming up. They're like athletic, obviously. And they don't have their like player profile picture yet. Yeah. It's just like that outline of like a silhouette. Yeah, the gray silhouette.

Those players are so much more intriguing than the guys with pictures. It's the unknown. It's the unknown. It's the box analogy. The family guy. What is it? It could be a boat or something. I don't know.

Yeah, exactly. You could either have a boat or you could have what's inside this box. And he goes, hey, it could be a box. boat inside that. And you're like, Albert O, I'm like, who is this mysterious character? Then you see his face. Like, oh, he's a person. I really do think, though, it just boils down to

the main thing is, like, teams don't want to throw these guys because it's like a you're just not having his plus EV or whatever. It's like you're better off throwing to like the guy that runs a 4-3 than the guy who's a lumbering oaf in the middle of the field. I love this take out of D.K.

What is where D.K. go, we have gone on this podcast from saying all tight ends are athletic, almost otherwise noted, so they're all lumbering oaks. You're missing the point. The good tight ends are super athletic. That's the point. No, the bad tight ends are also athletic. All I hear about Mike Gisickey and Noah Fance and Albert O

and these other guys we won't draft are how athletic they are. Okay, do you want to look at the guys who score the most points? They're also athletic, but I'm just saying. No, they're more athletic. Look, the point is, my bottom line point is, like, teams are teams are better off. You're going to do better if you're passing to the guys like Jamar Chase than CJ Usoma, no offense. D.K.

Just cutting edge analysis. I think your original point makes a lot of sense. You want to draft tight ends who are the number one and at the very least number two option on their team. Like when the Niners drop back to pass, odds are it's going to George Kiddler, Dibla, Samuel. That's what you want. Same with Kelsey and Mark Gangers and whatnot. I will say, I have a bone to pick with auction salary cap pricings, even ours on the Bringer, I'm a fancy football guide. Travis Kelsey, 35 bucks.

Mark Andrews 28, Kyle Pitts, 27. You are out of your fucking tree if you think you're getting Travis Kelsey for 35 bucks. I always tell myself, you know what, this is the year. By the way, I've never done this. I'm always like, this is the year

I'm going to draft a top two tight end and just skip down the street happy with my life. And then the draft begins and like the opening bid on Travis Kelsey is like 37. And I'm like, oh, that's a bit steep. And then the guy ends up taking him

at like 48. And I'm like, that is why I never take Travis Kelsey. All of the auction totals that you see online are fraudulent. It's just the floor. You have to pay them at least that much. Well, it's an average, but the problem is the person that gets them is the guy who wanted them the most. And so it's- You have to spend 50 bucks to get Travis Kelsey.

So you're going to tell yourself, oh, 38, 37, ain't going to happen. You prepare 50 plus and then tell me if you want them or not. That's why you should get people drunk. So to bring this all home. home, do you guys see yourself more likely to take Josh Allen, be the first person to take a quarterback off the board, or the first person to take a tight on off the board? I'd way rather have Kyle Pitts than Josh Allen. So basically, if I can broadly generalize our conversation, we're basically all in agreeance

that you probably want to be the last person to take a quarterback in your draft last year, or this year. Maybe not the last person. The bottom end of that elite tier, they'll be cheaper. for me the one person is if Lamar Jackson falls, I'm pretty into it because some places have him ranked fifth and I kind of look at it as he gets zero rushing touchdowns last year. So I feel like that could be good. Otherwise, if Herbert's the sixth quarterback you get, I would do that.

I agree. But you can just be extraordinarily patient because the worst thing that happens is you're the 10th person, take a quarterback and you get fucking. Just be QB agnostic. Just be like whatever. They're all fine. Tight ends. We're kind of sick of it and take a good one.

or you know play your dart lottery and pray alberno and russell's in a great connection and then running back side i think we kind of agree and kind of disagree i think we agree that running back i feel like you can look at it either way we're pretty hesitant but also we also agree that there's a lot of depth to the running back position like when we say we almost like the guys in the second round more than the first round we're also kind of saying that there's a lot of really good running backs this year. We're very wary of putting our chips onto one specifically, but the roulette board of like, there's a lot of, like, talent here. And we feel like it runs out kind of quickly after the first 30 picks or so. And receivers just absolutely loaded. And there's this larger question of,

does, in a loaded field, do you just go get the better safe players? And just, you know, rather than just try to beat everyone else to the punch of like those mid-round values. And like, why not both? You can start four, sometimes five wide receivers. So it's like getting Cooper Cup in the first doesn't preclude you from taking a ton of guys in the fifth, sixth, and seventh rounds either. No, but it might preclude you if you want a running back from getting a Kelsey.

You know what I mean? Those are the decisions that have it all in place. We have a whole offseason to argue about this. But I thought this was illuminating. I think I got just the right amount of mad at D.K. What did you get mad at me about? I forget, what did you get mad mad at me about? Calling tight ends lumbering oaths and that they should have premium points.

Okay I just I'm talking about like DK were you a tight end When you played college football Briefly No No

Here's the deal Maybe all of them are pretty athletic Relative to like the average person But if you look at like The style of routes that they're running The style of plays that they're making Where I'm going with the guys That are running vertical routes

Getting yards after the catch I don't want to fucking deal with Catch it and fall down guy That's what I'm saying I like this take. It's a good take. The button hook players. I don't want those. I don't want the guy who's running a five foot hook route and just waiting over the middle of the field and then fall down when he gets when he gets the football. I want that on my team. I want more effort after the catch. Yards after the catch. You're really calling out the coaches, right? Coaches and the players are like, hey, send these guys deep.

Send Dalton Schultz on a go route every once in a while. That's the point is they have receivers that can do that. They slumbering oaths in the middle of field can't do it. Oh, now there's slumbering oaths. No, I said lumbering. I might have slurred my words a little bit. I think you're slurring your words. All right. Should we get out of here?

Yeah, sure. Dickey's like, I'm getting out of it. I'm going to jinxed it because I was like, I'm just the right amount of mad and he's making me angry. So it's okay. Let's get out of here. Okay, we're coming to you every Tuesday and Thursday.

Ringer Fantasy Football Show. Thank you, everyone for listening. Check out our draft guide, Fantasyfobball. DotterRer.com. We'll be updating it. Maybe we'll have like a little lumbering oaths section. Like we can just call the tears.

A little tag next to the lumbering oaf players. Everyone after, we're just going to let D.K. Just be like lumbering oaf. And like we could just have like a little Shrek emoji. You know what we should call them? They're like couch. The second they eat, they just fall down on the couch. You know what I mean?

No, that missed. All right. A rare just whiff from Greg. At least you have the self-awareness. Everybody says, oh, let him eat. So I was like, oh, getting the ball is eating. Sit down. Like Leonard Frenet, this podcast is playing itself into shape.

That honestly is super true. Yeah. All right. Thank you, D.K. Thank you, Craig. I almost said Lauren second. That's how out of shape I am. Okay.

Lauren is important. Thank you, lumbering oaths. Thank you, Shrek. Thank you, Lorne. Lauren. Thank you, Otis Redding. Craig, what percentage of people under 25 to your 30 do you think learned who Otis Redding was from the Watch the Throne album?

Yeah. Like, I think 97%. It's not a bad thing. I kind of like when people who have, you know, someone was famous 15 years before they were even born get to introduce to them. I think samples have gotten too subtle these days. Maybe they just don't want to pay like the Otis Redding estate or whatever. But I love when old music is sampled in modern music.

Like do more of that. Like when Kygo just like grabs a fucking Whitney Houston song, that shit is the best. I was literally thinking of that. It is the best. That's also the perfect example. Donna Summers. I don't care. Just pick somebody.

I told you that one of my first things, my first bits I pulled out the ringer was I convinced people, someone asked me about Paul McCart. It was like, is he the guy who did that song with Rihanna and Kanye West, the guitarist? That's really good. Yeah, I love that stuff. Oh, Elton John, that's the guy who did that Duolipa song. Yeah. We should do this with Solac when we bring Ben Solic back in the pod.

Just like he just, yeah. Remember the time he didn't know who the Beatles were? No, he didn't know. He didn't know if it was, Harris. He didn't know the names of the Beatles. Ringo. He thought, oh, he called, and then he called him Ringo. Ringo.

Ring-o. Ring-o. Ring-o. That's good. Ring-o. All right, thank you, Ring-R-Star. Goodbye, everyone.