The Ringer NFL Show - Rookie Rankings and Post-Draft Winners and Losers

Episode Date: May 4, 2021

With the NFL draft in the books, we rank the rookies based on their outlooks for the 2021 fantasy season. Then we look around the league at the biggest fantasy winners and losers after the NFL draft. ... Rookie RB rankings (3:18) Post-draft RB winners/losers (17:50) Rookie WR rankings (21:58) Post draft WR winners/losers (31:57) Rookie TE rankings (38:19) Post-draft TE winners/losers (39:26) Rookie QB rankings (43:38) Fun fact (53:56) Email us! ringerfantasyfootball@gmail.com Hosts: Danny Heifetz, Danny Kelly, and Craig Horlbeck Producer: Craig Horlbeck Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Chef David Chang and the members of the recipe club sift through millions of search results to find the very best way to make the food you want to eat. Each week, they cook three recipes for the same dish, debate them, and ultimately declare the winning recipe. Check out Recipe Club on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to the Ringer Fantasy Football Show. My name is Danny Heifitz. I'm joined by Danny Kelly and Craig Coralbeck. Holy cow, the draft is over. And we actually have things to talk about. D.K., how excited are you? I'm very, very excited. I'm very glad that the draft is over. Now we can kind of finally start talking about real stuff
Starting point is 00:00:46 and where these guys landed, what they're going to do in the next few years. Real stuff, fantasy. This podcast has meaning once again. It's so nice to talk about where guys play instead of, who, where might they play? I was so excited that the draft was over that I went out into the sun
Starting point is 00:01:00 and had a great day by the pool. And he just was like, you know what? Sunscreen is not a real thing. And I got really burned and I'm recording this podcast in a tank top covered in Vaseline. No one needed to know that.
Starting point is 00:01:13 We could have kept that in this little circle of trust right here. No one needed to know that. No, I'm having a skin hangover from the draft, you know? Ouch, out of the grossest thing I've ever heard, and we're going to move on immediately. Let's just go through, let's just go through all the positions and talk about them. Yes, both sets of things.
Starting point is 00:01:31 Good plan. So good, good, good plan. P-A-L-L-N. Sergeant Bilko reference, you guys ever seen, you know, Whatever, it's almost this summer. You should see Sergeant Bill. Anyway, we threw in some rankings.
Starting point is 00:01:45 I will call them half-hazard at best, and then we average them of like basically where we would take the rookie dudes in redraft. Did you say half-hazard? It's haphazard. Oh, it's not. Are you serious? Half-hazard.
Starting point is 00:02:00 If you pronounce the P? Yeah, haphazard. You do not pronounce the P. Are you serious? I believe you do. Hap hazard. It's not like a graph, but like half-hazard. no no way
Starting point is 00:02:12 that's crazy okay all right haphazardly Jesus yeah yeah just blowed away
Starting point is 00:02:20 now we've just like knocked it we've knocked him off course here the point is we're gonna go through running back you can tell it's like almost nay or it is May see there you go yeah we did like a quick little mini consensus ranking we all ranked our like
Starting point is 00:02:32 each position of rookies and kind of combine them and we're going to see where we land here and talk about how they're going to play in 2021 It's an excuse to get our thoughts out. We have not actually really spoken how we feel about any of these dudes of fantasy yet. So I'm excited to like just kind of just fire off the hip right now.
Starting point is 00:02:46 So let me just read the rankings. We averaged them out. Our rankings are for the rookie running backs. Again, this is for redraft. We've got Najee Harris first with the Steelers. Travis E.T.N. second for the Jaguars. We've got Giovante Williams for the Broncos.
Starting point is 00:03:01 Trey Sermon for the Niners. And then Michael Carter, the running back dude, not the Michael Carter safety. They drafted in the next round for the Jets. So, D-K, you've been studying these dudes for literal months. Yeah. Naji Harris for the Steelers. I think we all had him as the number one dude. Where would you take him in drafts this year?
Starting point is 00:03:19 I don't know. I feel like I would take him pretty early. The way that the Steelers have always kind of used their running backs, it's like they like guys that are going to come in and play three downs. I know that there's a lot of Leveon Bell comps getting thrown around, and I actually kind of do buy it. in fact if you go back and you remember when Levi-on-Bel was drafted
Starting point is 00:03:40 they said a lot of very similar things to what I think that people would say about Harris he's very shifty big physical tall guy good pass-catcher but not very fast and I think that was the same sort of book on Levi-on-Bel so yeah but I mean the only difference is the Steelers very well could have the worst
Starting point is 00:03:57 offensive line in the league they drafted a center in the third Kendrick Green who's like supposed to be good and then like one other guy but they didn't draft a no alignment for the first two picks in the draft They got a tight end. Maybe he can block a little bit. But like, there might be a lot of 24 carries for 89 yards in a touchdown at a Naji Harris. You could say the Steelers rebuild their line haphazardly.
Starting point is 00:04:19 You certainly could say that. Yeah, but I guess my response would be you're chasing volume more than you're chasing like efficiency, right? Like he's going to get a lot of volume. They don't have anyone else really that's going to like challenge him. I guess maybe Anthony McFarland might, you know, come in and do some things for them. But for the most part, I think he's going to be the guy there.
Starting point is 00:04:40 So I'm very excited about what he's going to do this year. I'm just worried the Steelers are going to suck. I have no idea. You know what I mean? Yeah, I'm so torn on Harris, dude. Like, I agree with both of you. Like, volume, yes. Like, Mike, they drafted, like, why draft a running back in the first round?
Starting point is 00:04:54 It seems that Mike Tomlin is one of the last coaches left who really believes in the three down back, even the last couple years where it hasn't quite been the case. It seems like they really want the three down back and they want to get back to it. So he's going to have a lot of touches to your point, TK. But my God, the quality of these things are going to suck. I mean, they're always in shotgun because Rathusberger can't move.
Starting point is 00:05:15 You can't even drop back anymore. So, I mean, how much of a running game can you even have when they're in shotgun? The line was bad last year. It'll be worse this year because the entire right side's gone. They lost center guard, tackle. Like, that's a bad offensive line that's always in shotgun. They're always passing. I feel like the value for Harris is in PPR because Rathus,
Starting point is 00:05:34 Berger's basically out here, like leading the league in attempts are almost close to it. So I have such mixed feelings. And I feel like that he has to be the third downback. And if he's not playing on third down, there won't be any value there. My hope is that Ben was like still recovering last year and he was hurt and he goes full TB12 off season this season. And we hear about how he dropped 20 pounds in like July and he's doing great. And his elbow has had a lot of time to recover.
Starting point is 00:06:01 But he like the league in attempts, either 650 or the Steelers through 600. 56 passes last year. Yeah, but he threw them in like 1.9 seconds. Yeah, because he can't move. They have to get the ball out so fast because he's a statue. I know. I'm hoping that that maybe was a thing of the past and like Ben does some yoga
Starting point is 00:06:18 in Pilates this off season. I hope he's a new guy. He needs to, Ben is still living like he's in a fraternity. Like he needs to understand that he's an old man now and change his diet and change his body like Brady has done. I'm not sure if he's going to,
Starting point is 00:06:31 but that's what we need to do for the Steelers to win like 10 games. D.K., you're not as old as Rathesberger. Am I not? I'm pretty close, I feel like. No, you're close. Do you expect to get suddenly much faster in the next year or two of your life? Oh, my God, no.
Starting point is 00:06:45 By the way, this is... What if you did yoga? Would that make you faster? I'm not a professional quarterback. I'm not a professional athlete, but I was... I had to try and jump off my porch to try and grab a dead limb from a tree the other day. And it was a humbling, humbling experience. Wait, you jumped off your...
Starting point is 00:07:02 You just jumped and grabbed down to the limb, I was trying to jump off the stairs to my porch to grab a limb that was dead, but not like it hadn't fallen to the ground. It's like, you know, probably about 10 feet up in the air. And it was a humbling experience, I'll tell you that much. What was the plan if you held onto it and like it didn't break off the tree? It's not like a huge branch. It was just like a branch.
Starting point is 00:07:23 I would grab the branch and the branch would come down with my hand. Yeah, I'm envisioning a very thin branch. You wouldn't jump if there was a chance you hung on. From like 10 feet up. How do you not understand this? What are you talking about? It's a very understandable scenario. Wait, you jumped off your porch.
Starting point is 00:07:38 You're missing the point. The point is, I can't jump very high, okay? Don't worry about the fucking branch. I couldn't understand the logistics of what you were explaining. I want to, getting back to, getting back to like, where are you going to take him? Like, obviously, it's really early. It's May. We don't really have to worry about rankings quite yet.
Starting point is 00:07:55 But if we were drafting tomorrow, I'm going to throw out a few names here. Naji feels late second round to me. Go ahead. Late second round? I think that's probably a little bit early. Based on the rankings I'm looking at right now, like at Fantasy Pros, he would be more like in the third or fourth round.
Starting point is 00:08:12 But let me throw out a couple names here. Would you be taking him over Chris Carson? Yes. No. Really? Yeah, because he's ranked well below Chris Carson in these rankings. I mean, this is a consensus ranking. Chris Carson's always hurt.
Starting point is 00:08:24 Rashad Penny is actually maybe a thing this year. Petty fucking sucks. First round. I think I might take Harris over. I think I might take him over Carson. honestly, I'm with you, Craig. Carson can't stay on the fucking field. Oh shit.
Starting point is 00:08:35 Well, if Deakin doesn't want to do. This is not like, according to the rankings. J.K. Dobbins. Dobbins. I think I gotta take Dawkins. Jacob. Oh, Jacobs. Oh, dude, I don't fucking know. I think I might take Harris.
Starting point is 00:08:48 The thing is, here's the thing. I think you're taking Harris. Harris does have the best chance to be a three-down back immediately as much as like any running back in like recent years. like really, I guess since Sequin where it's like they're coming in,
Starting point is 00:09:04 they will be a three down back from week one. Like it's not like Jonathan Taylor wasn't that. Clyde was not that last year. Like I could see week one he's just doing everything. Which how many people do that? They love him. They love him. Not how many dudes do three downs.
Starting point is 00:09:17 So that would kind of change everything. So I guess the answer is we kind of want to see if he's doing that in the preseason. And if so, he's probably going to, yeah, maybe I would take him more Chris Carson. I bet he'll go quite a bit higher than these rankings might have him. I bet you people are going to be very excited
Starting point is 00:09:31 about it. Yeah, I could see him creeping up. Wait, do you want to finish out the rest of the RB rankings? Yeah, on this note. So the question about third down, so Travis E.TN, we got second for Jaguars. So the Jaguars took him with the second with the, sorry, their second first round pick. Urban Meyer throughout his press conference
Starting point is 00:09:47 that he envisioned him as like the third downback. Just fucking kill me. Just kill me right now. And not only that, he said he sees Carlos Hyde and James Robinson as a one-two punch and then E-TN. Just kill me.
Starting point is 00:10:02 Is that bullshit? Or is... I don't know what to make of that. That's CoachSpeed. It's so annoying. It's so annoying. Incredibly annoying. Why would you use the first rounder?
Starting point is 00:10:12 Okay, so first of all, we can get into... We could talk about for a long time their decision-making process here. I think it's... I agree, though. I think it's Coach Speak. I think they're just like, this is everything... This is what coaches always say at the draft. Oh, yeah.
Starting point is 00:10:25 We just traded a future first rounder to trade up and grab Justin Fields, but he's not going to be our starter. Like, shut up. under promise over deliver you know what I mean so like I kind of see that as this isn't the same vein like he's going to be the number one guy there I think it
Starting point is 00:10:42 it will be a split though I think you know you have to expect he's not going to be a three down guy who gets all the carries maybe it's a 6040 split or 65 35 whatever it is but I think he's still worth drafting and he's going to get the majority of those touches there
Starting point is 00:10:59 poor James Robinson man he's a seventh round pick. He plays incredibly well. No, he was undrafted. Undrafted. Oh, sorry, undrafted. Plays amazing. Then they go, we're going to bring in Carlos Hyde, who is literally the murder of all other players' fantasy values. And then they draft Travis E.N. Trevor Lawrence's best friend to be a third downback. James Robinson's going to get like seven carries a game and he needs to be traded already. The life of an undrafted free agent in the NFL is rough. Like they get no respect. It's the whole, you know, the whole bit like I get no respect. They really don't. It's really rough to be an undrafted free agent because you're going to have to hold off
Starting point is 00:11:31 guys every single year, you know, day three or undrafted? Undrafted guy to 1,070 rushing yards. Do you think ATN has more or less than that this season? First round pick. Less. What's the question? Who's going to say it again? Are you doing something else? TK. D.K. D.K. fell off. He just jumped for another branch and fell. So he's all shaking up right now. My knees are killing me. My feet hurt. No. What did you say? Sorry, I was reading something.
Starting point is 00:12:00 No, James Robinson had 1,070 yards. Do you think ETN, first round pick, is more or less than that? Scrimmage yards? Yes. No, rushing. Rushing yards, no. I mean, James Robinson had 1,400 scrimmage yards. Is ETN could get to 1,400 scrimmage yards? No. No, because he had like 98% of their touches last year. It was ridiculous. Robinson is a huge loser, though. Like, Robinson, where do you? even draft him. He was seventh among all running backs last year.
Starting point is 00:12:30 He only played 14 games and he was still seventh in the entire NFL. So like, do you even, where do you even, because it's a different coaching staff, D.K., like, where do you take it? I mean, so I wouldn't think, I don't think he'll be in like the handcuff range. That's, I think he's still going to get plenty of playing time. But I would say, like, put him in the Jamal
Starting point is 00:12:46 Williams sort of tier where you're talking about a guy who's going to be the 1B or the backup more or less or the rotational guy, I guess. Like, I can't see a world. Maybe in the beginning of the year, they'll go with Robinson more just because he's more experienced. But by the, like, week three or four, it's got to be ETN, right? I kind of see this as like a Daryl Henderson situation where Kim Makers came in.
Starting point is 00:13:08 It was like a high draft pick. And then it was like, well, Henderson could still have value. It's like JJ Zacharyson's whole thing about like, what is it, like uncertain backfields you should invest in. So maybe like James Robinson can end up being a value. But yeah, I mean, it's, I think he's in Daryl Henderson, Jamal Williams range now. Yeah, we have no idea, whatever I was going to do. Okay. So third here, we got Giovante.
Starting point is 00:13:26 Williams running back for the Broncos. Craig, you said you had a take? Well, no, I just wanted to get through. Can we read the whole list here? So we ranked Harris. I already did. I said, Javante Williams for the Broncos, Trey Serbun for the Niners, Michael Carter for the Jets. I want to talk about Javante Williams behind Melvin Gordon and why you guys both had him three and then guys like Michael Carter, who might just like straight up start for the Jets. Why is he fifth?
Starting point is 00:13:51 I put, so I put Williams ahead of Sermon and Carter because, well, number one, the Broncos traded up in the second round to get Williams much better draft capital Trace Serman I think is going to get stuck in a rotation with Moester with Jeff Wilson and so like you have to deal with that And so basically all these guys are going to be the guy All these guys are going to be a rotation
Starting point is 00:14:14 I don't know I don't think he'll be like a no I don't think he'll be the three down back I think he could work his way into the rotation very early and maybe be like the quote unquote starter but I mean all they have is Kevin Clinton a rotation in college. I don't think he's like 200 pounds. I don't think he's like a three down, like a workhorse back type guy. I think he's going to be a rotational guy. All three of these
Starting point is 00:14:35 guys are going to be rotation. So that would be why I, and really like maybe the gap isn't like huge between all these, all these guys. I think the 49ers will probably be a better rushing team. And Sermon will probably have more efficiency as a rusher. But I'm not, I'm not convinced Sermon from day one is going to be the starter with the 49ers. I think come the end of the year, Trace Sermon will be the number two running back, the number two rookie running back in fantasy. Like over the second half of the season, he'll score the most points.
Starting point is 00:15:04 Is that what you're saying? Yeah, I think he's going to like come alive and he'll be the guy you want to have on your team because I actually think the way that, I mean, Rahim Moster, once again, another guy who can't stay on the field and the Niners have the best run game amongst all these teams.
Starting point is 00:15:14 Like, why would you not want Trace Sermen? I mean, that guy freaking came alive at the end of the college football season, looked unstoppable. And like, Rahim Moster's like turning 30 this year, 29 this year. And then you got like Jeff Wilson. Jr. I'd rather have him way over
Starting point is 00:15:28 Giovante Williams who's behind Melvin Gordon, who's like signed to an $8 million deal this year. I don't know that it's even true that he will stay behind Melvin Gordon because Melvin Gordon's in the last year of his contract and the contract was given to him by John Elway and now the team is being run by George Payton, so I think that I guess and then you'd pay him $8 million and said on the bench, but yeah. That's not eight, it's four, is it? I don't think he's making like $8 million.
Starting point is 00:15:48 But the point is when you're a new GM and you come in, you don't have to care about that anymore. You know what I mean? And also since this last year of his deal, they're probably not going to resign him. I think that Javante is a better chance to be a two-down back midway through the season than these other dudes do. Like, Tray Sermon,
Starting point is 00:16:01 I just hate playing roulette with the Kyle Shane and running backs. Like, obviously, like, you always want to do it as a lottery ticket, but I'm not confident in doing it. Like, you want to try to get value with that backfield. So I'm not confident that, like,
Starting point is 00:16:12 a rookie's going to come in and just run that 49er system so well that, like, he just takes over, right? It just kind of, like, the 49ers are perfectly content to give it to, for example,
Starting point is 00:16:24 they had Kevin Cole, Coleman and paid him a lot of money. And then Rahim Moster, who's undrafted or his seventh round pick, takes the job. Like, it's just who can execute that offense best gets the job. And until Tray Sermon kind of gets it, I'm not going to still have any playing time. So I'm just willing to take Javante over him. But the point is, though, that these guys are all really uninspiring. This is a bad running back group.
Starting point is 00:16:46 Like, Nage is good and ETIN is good. And even ETIN's thing is, like, this is not an exciting group of people. Like last year, we had so many guys. We had DeAndre Swift. We had Clyde. We had Jonathan Taylor. We had, and Camakers,
Starting point is 00:16:59 there's so many good running backs in exciting situations. This is the least exciting running back group we can remember. Right? Is that not fair? As long as our memory only goes back like a year, but yeah.
Starting point is 00:17:11 Yeah, well, I mean, definitely not, that's exciting as last, it's definitely not as exciting as last year. Do you remember the before times? Because I don't. Not at all.
Starting point is 00:17:19 Not even remotely. Honestly, like if you want to get to like the other running back winners from the draft, it's a bunch of guys who are like, pretty boring? Like, we have, like, other winners
Starting point is 00:17:29 out of the draft are like, Mike Davis, the Falcons did not draft a running back. Is Mike Davis going to be a top 10 back this year? Dude, I was going to say, so if they don't, so here's the caveat to the winners. The winners are the teams
Starting point is 00:17:40 that did not sign a running back. So Mike Davis for the Falcons, Miles Gaskin for the dolphins, who don't sleep on him, was Mike Clay threw this out. Miles Gaskin was the running back eight, the eighth best running back when he was active.
Starting point is 00:17:52 So they didn't add any help. And then I guess Chase, Edmonds and James Connor in Arizona and then I guess Zach Moss for the bills. Those teams didn't really add a ton of help. But the caveat to this is that we're recording this Tuesday. I think it's May 3rd. This is when the compensatory picks
Starting point is 00:18:08 come in. High Fitz is just half-hazardly picking the date of the month. What day is today, man? May the 4th. May the 4th, dude. I don't know. May the 4th be with you. Time has lost all meaning. Point being that now that it's May, teams can sign players and it won't count against their compensatory
Starting point is 00:18:24 picks for next year. So, Some of these teams will sign Todd Gurley or like Leveon Bell is still out there. Devante Freeman like Rex Burkhead. Some of these guys will sign those guys and screw everything up. Having said that, if the Falcons don't sign any of those dudes, is Mike Davis like a like a third round pick? Sure. I don't know about third round, but he's definitely going to like,
Starting point is 00:18:47 he's going to have a chance to finish a lot higher than anything. I think he'd be a high-end RV2. Dude, can I make the case from Mike Davis like top 20 player? Sure. Sure. If they don't sign a guy like a Devante Freeman or someone to eat in whose carries, and they go into the season, the only guys behind him are Corderel Patterson and, like, Quadri Allison, and then they've also got like a guy named Tony Brooks James who's an undrafted dude with 11 career carries.
Starting point is 00:19:11 That's it. People are getting excited about JV. and Hawkins, the undrafted free agent. I'm not. Mike Davis was a top five running back when McCaffrey was out. What? I said, is this like your Antonio Gibson, you're going to deny it? eye into die and deny until he starts producing thing. For Javian Hawkins, he's an undrafted free agent.
Starting point is 00:19:30 Who cares? My point being, Arthur Smith is now the coach of the Falcons. The Titans led the NFL in rushing yards the entire time. They were under Arthur Smith. I know Mike Davis isn't Derek Henry, but like, is it insane to think that the Falcons might be top five in rushing? Yeah, I think so, right? They have Kyle Pitts, Julio Jones, Matt Ryan, and I don't know that.
Starting point is 00:19:50 Yeah, that's tough. I think they're going to, I still, like, the Arthur Smith thing is valid point. and I do wonder how different they are going to be, but I still see this team as being super pass-heavy for whatever reason. Like, I don't know. I don't know either. Arthur Smith is a smart guy in this 2021.
Starting point is 00:20:08 I doubt he's going to be like, well, I had Derek Henry, so I ran a lot, and now I'm going to run a lot on every team. I feel like they brought him in. They're like, we want to run with Derek Henry, and he's like, okay, and then they did, and he probably didn't get this job being like, I'm going to run with Mike Davis.
Starting point is 00:20:20 Right. Mike David. They literally sign one guy, and that's it. it. They're good. All right. Receivers. You want to look at the receivers here? Okay. So our rookie receiver rankings, we have. We have Jamar Chase for the Bengals at number one. We have Devonte Smith for the Eagles number two. Jalen Waddle for the dolphins at number three. Rashad Bateman for the Ravens at number four. Rondale Moore for the Cardinals at number five. Elijah Moore for the Jets at number six. Taras Marshall Jr. for the Panthers at number seven.
Starting point is 00:20:49 Cadres Tony for the Giants. Number eight. Amon Ross St. Brown for the Lions. Number nine, that's the best name in the entire draft. Amari Rogers for Greek. Green Bay at number 10, and then Dwayne Eskridge for the Seahawks at number 11. Okay, what stands out to you, guys, when you look at these 11 wide receivers? Is there one pattern that you can notice? Yeah, they're all the top guys drafted except for Cadarious Tony, the Giants guy's number eight, even though he was a first rounder. That's what I jumped out to me as a Giants fan.
Starting point is 00:21:18 Not that, but that is tough. That's fair, yeah. The overwhelming majority of these guys' quarterbacks kind of suck. Yeah, that's true. So, like, Borrow. Chase is like the clear cut number one, right? There's really no question, I think. There's no arguments.
Starting point is 00:21:33 I haven't seen anybody that says Chase isn't going to be the number one guy this year in terms of the rookie receivers. Devante Smith seems to be among most or at least among a lot of people, the consensus number two is the 10th overall pick. He goes to a team where he's probably the number one receiver from day one, right? Like he moves Jalen Rager over and I think Jalen Rager will be the number two and then they'll see what happens. But like, again, like Craig says,
Starting point is 00:21:57 said, Jalen Hertz, very unproven as a passer. How do we know this isn't going to be like a massively run-heavy team? Right. Not in the, not in the like Lamar Jackson sense, but like, Hertz is definitely more in the dual threat quarterback range where they're going to probably like want to use him in the run game a lot, all that stuff. He didn't exactly light it up as a passer last year. No, I shouldn't say shitty quarterbacks. Maybe you should say unproven.
Starting point is 00:22:23 Like we have Burrow, Hertz, Tua, Lamar Jackson, who like they don't. They don't throw the ball a lot, and he's, you know, kind of has in and out accuracy. We have Kyler, who's good. Then you have the Jets with Zach Wilson, we don't know. You have Sam Darnold on Carolina. You have Daniel Jones. You have Jared Gough.
Starting point is 00:22:37 Like, it's pretty rough for a lot of these guys. Our top 10, yeah, that's a good point. You're right about that because unfortunately, like, Rondale Moore, I think, would be so much higher on this list. Or, sorry, Rashad Bateman would be so much higher in this list if he went to, like, the Packers, but instead to go to the Ravens and, like, again. Right.
Starting point is 00:22:53 The winner here to me is, like, Lamar Jackson, who gets receiving help, because they also had, what's the name, Tyler Wallace. But you're right. I mean, there's just the question marks are quarterbacks who can pass. So that's super tough.
Starting point is 00:23:06 I feel like in terms of region, the only guys I really want here are Chase, I kind of believe in Devante Smith. The guy here that I actually think is the best value is Rondale Moore for the Cardinals, because I think that Rondell Moore is the most slippery dude.
Starting point is 00:23:20 I would not at all be surprised if we're a month into the NFL season and Rondale Moore leads all rookies. in receiving yards just based on how like the Cardinals are going to go. The Cardinals are going to have to feel the Cardinals defense will be very bad. I just, that one seems the most likely
Starting point is 00:23:34 to me. And I think the one guy who could fall the most is Jalen Waddle, who's going to be kind of like the number three on his team with Tua, who we have no idea how he's going to be. There's a chance that Jalen Waddle kind of has a Henry Ruggs-like start to the season. He's better
Starting point is 00:23:50 than Rugs, but I think that when it's Waddle, Will Fuller, Devante Parker, I think the idea that Waddle, I don't think will be consistent. I think that he will have probably many highlights, but, you know, maybe a punt return touchdown or four, but, like, I don't know if he's going to be someone that you throw him in and then you get, like, two and a half points, and then you keep him on your bench, he gets 18, and then there's seven consecutive weeks under five. And, like, it won't be, he's not a willful or player, but he will be the willfuler experience. Yeah, like, maybe how we
Starting point is 00:24:17 need to think about this is who's going to get the most targets per game. Like, Jamar Chase, by far will probably get the most targets on this list in the first, like, six weeks of the season. But then after that, you could see Devonte Smith getting his fair share of targets because he'll probably be the number one on the team. Like Bateman Moore, maybe Elijah Moore could get if they get rid of James and Carter. Yeah, I think Elijah Moore is the sleeper here. Let me ask you guys this question. So last year at this time, you know, I think that Justin Jefferson was getting a fair amount of hype, but not anything too crazy. And then early on in the season, he was not even really a part of the, like, he was outside the top two rotation on the,
Starting point is 00:24:54 the team, right? Like, they had Ola B.C. Johnson playing ahead of him for, like, a couple of games. And so, but then obviously he came on strong after that, somehow works his way. I can't remember exactly how he ended up in the starting lineup. Maybe B.C. Johnson got hurt or something. Or they just started playing it more. And then all of a sudden, he was like the
Starting point is 00:25:12 greatest freshman receiver of all time, freshman, the first year receiver, rookie receiver of all time. Who in this group, and we'll, like, look past the top three, because the top three guys are all like, you know, top 10 picks or whatever. Who in this group has the best chance you think or would be like the sleeper to be this
Starting point is 00:25:31 year's Justin Jefferson? The guy that maybe we're not talking about enough in the preseason that comes on and just lights it up. My pick would be Terrace Marshall probably. Who can immediately fill in as kind of the number two with what's his name gone, Curtis Samuel gone. I know they have Robbie Anderson, but he's like six three. He can be their red zone threat if Donald's good.
Starting point is 00:25:49 And that offense kind of like continues to roll. Terris Marshall would have been a first round pick if it wasn't for health concerns, right? There's a strong chance, yeah. Apparently he had some knee stuff come up on the medicals that teams were worried about made him fall a little bit, but I saw him in a ton of mock drafts before that came out
Starting point is 00:26:07 in the first round. So there's a smaller solid chance, I guess, that he was a first rounder. Because a lot of these other guys are like five-nine speed guys on teams with questionable quarterbacks. I think Ron Dale, I mean, I think Terrace Marshall could be the guy maybe. In terms of who's the next Justin Jefferson I'm looking at a few things,
Starting point is 00:26:23 and it's like you kind of want to check a few boxes of either really talented or in a offense with a lot of volume or in an offense with not a lot of competition or in an offense that is a bad defense and we'll be shooting a lot. And I look at this list, we take those top 10 picks out.
Starting point is 00:26:37 Rashad Bateman, it's like, I don't really know how, even if he's really good, I still think the Ravens just aren't going to pass it on. Like, even if they pass way more this year, they're still going to go from the lowest passing team to what, below average? Like, that's not what you want.
Starting point is 00:26:50 I think Rondo Moore, checks that box. I think the Cardinals of a bad defense. I think Elijah Moore, maybe, because I don't think the Jets will have a good defense, at least not in year one. And I think if the Jets' offense is better, I could see that. And then I think, to Craig's point at Terrace Marshall, I mean, the Panthers have only drafted defensive people,
Starting point is 00:27:08 basically, until him. And because I look at the other ones, like, Cadres Tony with the Giants. Like, we don't believe in Daniel Jones. I don't. But also, there's so many people on that offense to spread the ball around. It's hard to see guys getting the share that, like, Tony will. I think that, yeah, I think Terrace Marshall's a good pick, and I think Elijah Moore is the other dude.
Starting point is 00:27:25 So I'm just, I agree with you. I think I'm definitely with you guys on all that. Like the one that really stands out to me that I think is the most fascinating of this group. And like, by far, to me, the most emotion evoking pick of the entire draft was Rashad Bateman going to the Ravens. I was extremely disappointed because I really like him. I've done a bunch of dynasty drafts already. I have a bunch of him already.
Starting point is 00:27:51 I'm like really excited about it. But then him going to the Ravens, it's nothing necessarily against Lamar because I do have faith Lamar is going to develop and become a better passer as he gets older. But the volume and the inaccuracy that he's already had, the fact that he's going to be like fighting with, you know, Sammy Watkins, Marquise Brown, and Mark Andrews for targets.
Starting point is 00:28:11 Like to me that was the most depressing one. Is there a world in which he could be the surprise guy that kind of emerges? So I'm looking at last year's situational run-pass ratios from sharp football stats. The Ravens threw the ball 406 times, but the Vikings weren't exactly a pass heavy team. They threw the ball 516 times total, which is 27th
Starting point is 00:28:30 in the NFL. They were one of the, I would say, more run heavy teams. Like that's like how I would define their offense and their style and philosophy. That's like over a full season, that's like a difference of like seven passes a game. Like I could see the Ravens
Starting point is 00:28:46 passing seven more times a game, maybe five more times a game. Yeah. Is there a world where Bateman is just like way more, goes off way more than we think he's going to? Are we like riding him off way too early is kind of my question? Because I kind of felt like I wrote him off when he landed in Baltimore. I was like, fuck.
Starting point is 00:29:04 Like that is the worst possible landing spot. I mean, maybe he's got a contempt of Sammy Watkins, but I mean, when has Sammy Watkins been anything more than he did? Right. True. You know, that's a good point. So maybe like my point, I guess like my argument wouldn't be that Bateman is going to be that guy because I don't think that the odds are very strong that it's going to be that guy.
Starting point is 00:29:21 But if you go back at this time last year, I remember thinking, you know, he's going to, Justin Jefferson, he's in like a heavy run offense. Like they're going to feature Dalvin Cook. You know, we don't even really know what Justin Jefferson is going to be because he played only in the slot.
Starting point is 00:29:36 So, like, I'm just trying to, like, paint a picture where is it possible that we're going to underrate Bateman? I feel like fantasy football, recency bias, plays such a factor into fantasy football. And it's why, you know, I think that, like, Josh Allen, and like everybody thinks their quarterback
Starting point is 00:29:49 can become Josh Allen now because of what he did, even though it's super rare. I think like what Justin Jefferson did last year and kind of what the entire rookie wide receiver class did, like down to like people, guys like T. Higgins had like great years. My recommendation would be to not over draft
Starting point is 00:30:04 rookie wide receivers this year. Like don't expect Rondale Moore and Elijah Moore to be T. Higgins because he's not going to be. So like your answer to my original question would have been this year there isn't going to be a Justin Jefferson because Justin Jefferson was like the rare, like literally the best
Starting point is 00:30:20 rookie receiver of all time. He was like, yeah. He was like a top five wide receiver this year. My recommendation would be if you don't get your March H. or Devonthe Smith, just punt. I think that's probably fair. Let's look at some veterans who kind of won based on how this draft unfolded,
Starting point is 00:30:32 basically receivers who didn't get competition or got better quarterback. I feel like the biggest winner in terms of fantasy was A.J. Brown. They, currently the Titan didn't really draft a receiver. They currently, their number two guys, Josh Reynolds, which is wild.
Starting point is 00:30:46 D.K., does A.J. Brown probably the favorite lead the NFL in targets this year? Yeah, I think A.J. Brown is going to be one of the, look, it's May. By the time we get to August, he's going to have so much hype, it's going to be insane. Like, he's going to be everyone's favorite, I guarantee you. But yeah, I mean, he's going to get a ton of targets in that offense. Like, they did draft a guy in the fourth round, Des Fitzpatrick, who I think most people thought it was going to be like a six or seventh rounder. So I don't think he's, like, necessarily going to come in and steal a whole bunch of targets from A.J. Brown. They also
Starting point is 00:31:15 lost Johnny Smith. So they're going to force feed him. I saw this stat from PFS E. and Corey Davis today. And Corey Davis is gone, obviously. And then Adam Humphreys is gone. Also, John O'Smith is gone. So, like, he's by far the number one guy in that offense. Well, I see, I'm, FERC, sir. The FERC, the FERC daddy.
Starting point is 00:31:34 But do we think that Tannahill can still be good without Arthur Smith? Like, how much of TANHill's existence was like just, that's what I'm really curious about, you know? Well, that is the question. That is a good question and I don't know the answer of that. I would say any smart offensive coordinator, who is it now? Todd Downing? I can't, I don't even remember who is like their offensive coordinator now, but whoever it is in Tennessee, I think would be smart to just run a very similar scheme because it clearly gets the best from Tannahill.
Starting point is 00:32:06 Like, you know what I mean? You're right. It's Todd Downing. So I think, you know, it'll be a similar offense. I don't think he's going to fall off the map and like completely fall apart. I doubt he will be nearly as efficient. Well, I doubt he'll be as efficient. I don't know if it's going to be a huge drop-off, though. I think if you want to get ahead of the curve, you should just draft A.J. Brown as the number one wide receiver this year because there's a strong chance he is next year.
Starting point is 00:32:31 And like basically, all right, if you go to, like, fantasy pros and look it up, it's like Tyree Kill, Devontah Adams, then A.J. Brown. You know, I guess the Rogers thing matters. That's like all that matters for Devonta Adams. But I think it's honestly very reasonable. come August that people will be taking AJ Brown as the number one wide receiver. So I wanted to say this stat earlier.
Starting point is 00:32:50 AJ Brown, this is per Hartett's, Ian Hartett's. AJ Brown has six games in his career with more than eight targets, which is number one. That's insane to me. So six games with more than eight targets. In those six games, it's like 10 for 151 in a touchdown, eight for 114 in touchdown,
Starting point is 00:33:07 seven for 112 in a touchdown. Like every one of those, basically if you give him targets, he's going to go off. like the point here. Every time he's got more than eight targets, it's been like an absurd game. He had a thousand yard season after he was told in a week two, you're out for the season. And he's like, no,
Starting point is 00:33:22 I'm not. And it kept playing. If there's a game, if there's any one game where he gets less than 10 targets, you're failing. So, give him 10 targets. But Craig mentioned Devante Adams. And in terms of just losers or winners of draft weekend, I maybe
Starting point is 00:33:38 it's dumb to do this hypothetical. But if Aaron Rogers wasn't on the Packers, what the fuck would we do with Devanti Adams? Because if Aaron Rogers shows up to training camp, Devant Adams is the number one receiver. If Aaron Rogers does not show up to training camp, I have no idea what I would do.
Starting point is 00:33:51 So I guess we're assuming, Jordan Love is going to throw to Devonthe. Jordan Love is the starter. Oh, boy. That's tough. He, I mean, he's not, I don't think he's top 10. I don't think, I, I can't even imagine taking him because I feel like someone else is going to take him in the top 20.
Starting point is 00:34:05 I don't think I would take DeVonton Adams in the top 20. It's like, look at huge stakes. He tweeted the other day, Devante Adams was like, yeah, appreciate what you got while you have it. I appreciate it, Devante. Wait, speaking of Devante, potentially losing Rogers, I want to talk about just a quick temperature check on Michael Thomas.
Starting point is 00:34:21 How do you guys feel about Michael Thomas without Breeze? I don't feel particularly excited about it or confident that he's going to ever be what he was with Breeze. What do you think, Hyphitz? I think that you have a fun theory, Craig, that's like bad quarterbacks over target, their number one receiver, and that you could convince me that,
Starting point is 00:34:42 like Thomas will make up for in just sheer volume because they have so little behind him. But it's hard not to think that the name brand will eclipse the fact that he is going from like a all time great NFL quarterback who excelled in the areas of the field that Michael Thomas is a great receiver at to, I don't know, Tassum Hill. Like how reliable is that? Like it's kind of like he used to be the 12 target of game guy and he's going to be that A.J. Brown where it's like, oh, Michael Thomas, like how much of those targets can be worth? At the end of the day, what you're paying for in the top 10, top 20s, certainty. And then you start looking for upside as you go down. Michael Thomas just nothing about that state's offense seems certain.
Starting point is 00:35:25 So that seems really concerning. Real quick, other, I just want to shout out the other winner, Alan Robinson. Yeah. Getting Justin Fields, who might already be the best player. He's quarterback he's ever caught passes from in the NFL, even though Justin Fields has not played yet. I want to shout Lamar Jackson. who just got two good receivers and then that's good for him.
Starting point is 00:35:45 Yeah. Treyquan Smith, who I guess will be the number two receiver for the Saints team, who's always been really like interesting, but... Tricon Smith is going to be the post-type sleeper for a lot of people this year, right?
Starting point is 00:35:56 Because we've been talking about him. We've been talking about him for years and it just hasn't happened. So we'll see. I hope James, I hope James starts and Treyquan Smith and Michael Thomas are the new Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
Starting point is 00:36:08 You know who my real sleeper is for the Saints this year? is, and now I completely am forgetting his name. What about little Jordan Humphrey, Craig? Calloway. What's his name? Damn it. Oh, yeah, Marquez Calloway. Yes, yes. Oh, that's a good one. Not a strong sign that I couldn't remember his name. However, I think he's good, right? He showed some stuff last year.
Starting point is 00:36:29 If that, there's ringing endorsements, then there's vibrating endorsements. That was a vibrating endorsement. That was bad, my bad. So the same caveat applies for the receivers, though, is that there's free agents that I think teams will, that will, that will probably find work this month. So Kenny Stills, Golden Tate, Alshan Jeffrey, those dudes probably, like, if they go somewhere, that'll fuck everything up and it'll be annoying. But if they don't, it'll go for trick one Smith. Okay. Tight ends. So Kyle Pitts, and then there's this other guy, Pat Frymerth, and then I don't think any of the others are worse. It's Fryer Muth. It's Friar Muth. It's Friar Muth. It's, Mewth. No, I don't know if you said it
Starting point is 00:37:04 wrong, but I just wanted to point out that it's Friar Muth. Mewth. It's a tough one. It's a game of Thronesy. It's maybe the, it's maybe the, it's maybe the, the grossest name in the NFL. Friar Meuse. Kyle Pitts already lucked out that this is such a shitty tight end class. Dude, so the loser here is obviously
Starting point is 00:37:21 Hayden Hurst who just got absolutely bodied out of it. It's so tough for Haydenhurst. Imagine being Hayden Hurst and being a first round pick and having like a decent year and then they're like you know what? We're going to draft the greatest tight end prospect of all time to replace you. So he's a good dude
Starting point is 00:37:37 and he has a fun story and he like overcame a However, he is just absolutely destined to be a bar trivia, Tuesday night, trivia night of like, what player was drafted by the Baltimore Ravens before Lamar Jackson? And it's like, that will be it. I guarantee you if you remember that fact, you will get a trivia at a bar night, probably every rest of 10 years. Having said that for winners, I feel like T.J. Hawkinson for the Lions is like going to be the other, like the cool sleeper. Cal Pitts will be like the no But Hawkinson is going to be the guy D.K. Do you feel like it's Hawkinson?
Starting point is 00:38:15 Absolutely. I can see it already. People are going to get super excited about him. And there's a good reason for it. Look, they signed the Lions did, signed Prashad Perryman, Tyro Williams, and a couple, a handful of other random dudes in free agency. This is after letting,
Starting point is 00:38:31 yeah, it is a motley crew. After letting Gala Day and Marvin Jones, and then on a much lower level, Danny Amindoll. are out. They're gone. And people are going to get excited about Amon Rae St. Brown, who they picked him the fourth round. I think that's legit. He could be a good
Starting point is 00:38:46 rookie sleeper or whatever. I'm not going to get too excited about that because I think they're just going to feed Hawkinson instead. He's more experienced. If you look at, if you remember and think about Jared Goff, like Goff compared to Stafford is like night and day in terms of like arm strength,
Starting point is 00:39:03 aggressiveness, all this stuff. I could just see Goff like checking down to Hawkinson like 10 times a game. Yeah, I I meant on Hawkinson. I think, I mean, Kyle Pitts is going to go so goddamn high in drafts that, like, you'll get such a steal if you just lay back and take Hawkinson. By the time
Starting point is 00:39:16 ADP actually sorts out, and again, like, unless the lines add, like, a good receiver, Hawkinson, again, what do you want in a top-tight end? You want me the number one guy? Yeah. As much as hype as there will be for Pitts, the reality is, I think that by the time we get to actual drafts in August, everyone's rankings will be Kelsey,
Starting point is 00:39:32 Kittle, Waller, Hawkinson, and that you'll probably have to spend a top 50 pick together. Hawkinson and honestly he might be worth it. I get I do actually like a Monroast, same friend, he's a real test for like Craig's name theory because he's literally named after a sun god. And if his name was Cooper tough, he probably would be so excited.
Starting point is 00:39:54 But you know what? I kind of want the sun god on my team. Like huge fan of the sun. I know Craig isn't with the sunburned, but I've got to respect the sun. Me and the sun are on rough terms right now. Like the metal draft. Did you guys watch the metal draft? Chris Ryan. Chris Ryan.
Starting point is 00:40:07 He goes, Hamon Ra's like Egyptian for the god of the slot Or something No slot god is the Twitter handle for Nicole Roby Coleman Is that right? We buried the lead by the way How have we not talked about the Jets Not having drafted a tight end?
Starting point is 00:40:25 Oh yeah you got Chris Herndon Is he the real winner? Craig What the hell is going on? Are you ranking Herndon ahead of Kyle Pitts this year? Potentially. You know what's weird about the Jets is they have like five receivers
Starting point is 00:40:36 who I all think are like pretty good. They have Corey Davis, Denzel Mims, Elijah Moore, Jameson Crowder, Keelan Cole, and Josh Doxon even. I literally like six receivers on the Jets. That is a lot of like this show's core like favorite players. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:40:52 We all have a crush at Keel and Cole. But yeah, no, Herndon, are we allowed to recommend Herndon this year after how much everyone listening was just absolutely burned by him in 2020? I honestly think it's the only thing you can do is you have to just get right back on the horse. You have to double down.
Starting point is 00:41:07 Get back on the horse. I mean, hey, we got the Gase argument. We have the darn old argument. You're right. The only thing worse than doubling down on Herndon and being wrong would be getting off the Herndon bandwagon and then him being like, yeah,
Starting point is 00:41:19 and then like week six, he's like the number one tight end. You're like, yeah, no, Adam Gays didn't know how to use me. Like that would just be absolutely heartbreaking. That's way more embarrassing. You're totally right. How old is Chris Herndon? Let me see. 25.
Starting point is 00:41:30 Young at heart. Yeah, there we go. He just turned 25. That's a tight end. that's prime. All right, you want to go to the quarterbacks? Yes, sir. Okay, so this is a weird conversation because like rookie quarterbacks, there's such a big gap between like what they do immediately. Our rankings are Trevor Lawrence first, Justin Fields to the Bears second, Zach Wilson on the Jets third, Tray Lance on the Niners fourth, Mack Jones on the Patriots fifth. I do we have Lance too low there?
Starting point is 00:42:05 That's the question. So I rank Trayette. Lance fourth. I did it because I don't know if he's going to start. That's the problem. Trey Lance, I think, has so much upside because he is able to he's basically, the Niners' offense obviously is really good. I will trot out the
Starting point is 00:42:21 stat 10,000 times this year, but of all the quarterbacks to make their first 16, like your first 16 career starts in NFL history, the most passing yards any player has is Patrick Mahomes, number one, first 16 starts. And number two is Nick fucking Mullins for the four.
Starting point is 00:42:37 49ers. And then the rest of the list is like Andrew Luck, Rome or Kurt Warner. Like this Kyle Shanahan offense is like a spaceship. It can fly on autopilot. You just sit there and you don't really hit any of the buttons. So Trey Lance running this offense, I think has an amazing amount of fantasy potential also with the legs.
Starting point is 00:42:55 But I feel like Jimmy G actually just ends up playing like more than half of the season. Don't you read it that way, D.K.? Yeah, yeah, because I think he's going to play until he gets hurt. So how many games are they going to be like four or five games based? I love that. That's a guarantee. Columbus Day, I don't know. There's a chance that if Jimmy's healthy come week eight,
Starting point is 00:43:14 there's a chance, Kyle kicks him down the stairs to get Tray Lance in the game. It depends if they're winning or not. And like, for all the new ones, we're going to add to this discussion. It's like, what's their record?
Starting point is 00:43:22 It's seven and one. He's not getting benched. Are they three and four? Yeah, he's going to get bent. You know what I mean? It's like, that's all it matters.
Starting point is 00:43:27 Jimmy Grubolo hurt his knee the other day while getting into his car somehow. Weird. It's like a Nancy Kerrigan's situation. taking adult actresses to dinner at the four seasons in Beverly. They're gonna hire the guy who stabbed
Starting point is 00:43:43 Hyrod Taylor. Like, oh, nineers hire Chargers doctor. Oh, weird. I mean, there's plenty of ways. Jimmy's the real life viti-chaise.
Starting point is 00:43:52 Let's be real. Okay, so otherwise, I kind of feel like Mac Jones. I have him fifth here. Because even if he starts from a week- What is his upside? Massive mistake on your part.
Starting point is 00:44:04 Are they really going to ask him to do anything more than not fuck up? No. Mac Jones is going to throw for 250 yards and two touchdowns every game for 17 games. Do you want that? I'm just saying, I'm not sure if Trey Lance or Zach Wilson will do that. I'm going to do the points by the end of the season. I bet you Mac Jones is like the second or third best quarterback. So there's going to be 17 games? Oh, man. By the way, this is weird. It was 17 games.
Starting point is 00:44:31 The 17 game is going to suck so much. Okay. It's so annoying. It's, It's going to officially make everyone just do a points per game, yards per game. Only per game stats will be how people talk about things. It's so frustrating. And I already am mad at all the little records that are going to get broken. And then the caveats. And everyone's going to get mad. It just, it's, I feel like they didn't really think about how it would affect me personally.
Starting point is 00:44:57 Going back to like the 16 game thing. Like, let's say Mac Jones play 16 games because that people can understand these, this context. I mean, he was a 4,000 yard passer. Two touchdowns obviously would be what? 32. I can do that math. 32. I did it right and Craig got it wrong.
Starting point is 00:45:14 He said 16 games. He said 16. Oh, sorry, sorry, sorry. So 32 touchdowns, I mean, dude, he would be, where does that put him? I wonder. Pretty damn high. We're just going to this ridiculous idea that he just those two touchdowns every game. I don't know why he would just agreed on Craig's baseline.
Starting point is 00:45:32 It's like, oh yeah, he'll obviously do that, which would have like led the fucking NFL a couple years ago. anyway I the question to me is how do you guys feel about fields because I think the only ones you're really drafting here in a redraft one quarterback league is Lawrence and Fields DK is fields like the guy that you probably want because the upside of the rushing or do you want Lawrence because he's Trevor Lawrence?
Starting point is 00:45:57 Both. Okay, so look, I think Lawrence is guaranteed going to be the starter right? So I think he is a guy that's drafted. He's a draftable, he's a draftable, quarterback. I still think, I don't know, like, we'll see what happens in training camp and all that. Like, I think Justin Fields will end up being the start. I don't know if it's going to be week one. They're probably going to do the stupid team thing, like a lot of stupid teams do where they like try and start Andy Dalton for a couple games, like the Chargers did last year with Tyrod Taylor. I could see that happen. Um, so I don't know if you necessarily draft Justin Fields, but I mean, look, what we saw what Jaylen Hertz did last year in a few games, his rushing upside, what that brings. Jalen Hertz was like, what, top five quarterback in the time he was starting just because of what he did as a rusher. Yeah, top three.
Starting point is 00:46:44 So I'm all over. Like if Justin Fields or Trey Lance are even remotely getting close to starting, I'm all over it. I think both of those guys are. So this is just further radicalizing me against the ridiculous scoring in fantasy football. Like the idea that like Justin Fields yards are yards. I just hate this so much. Like, why are passing yards worth less than rushing yards? It's insane.
Starting point is 00:47:05 It's dumb. I don't know. High Fitz. I'm sorry. I don't know. Are you okay with a field goal being three for 30 yards, four for 40 yards, five for 50 yards? Are you like points or points?
Starting point is 00:47:14 Three points is three points. No, because that does make sense. Maybe the actual gaps in yardage are not like perfect, but the idea that a longer field goal is a better thing is no different than me than a 10 yard passing touchdown is worth more than a 30 yard pass. Or worth less than a 30 yard passing touchdown. You bridged yards. What you're judging is yards and touchdowns.
Starting point is 00:47:34 And my feelings of fantasy. it should be yards, touchdowns, and first downs, because those are the three things that are inherently valuable, and then that should probably be it, and that there should be no gap between them. What about a win, Hyphitz? What about a point for a win?
Starting point is 00:47:50 I would... You know that I have long felt that part of me wants fantasy football to your players get zeros if they don't win the game. I think that I still think that that should be a thing. I don't think that should get zeros. I'm into the idea like in baseball,
Starting point is 00:48:02 like fantasy baseball, where you get like three points extra if your team wins. That's kind of a thing. That's a pitcher. QB wins. No, I don't think so. Anyway, I think that Lawrence is fun. And you probably want him, and it's one of those, like, you know what?
Starting point is 00:48:12 Maybe he sucks, but the reality is, you know what, it's fun? Having Trevor Lawrence be good on your team. Lawrence is like Herbert. I think they are similarly styled. I think that he's going to be awesome this year. I think the most interesting quarterback on this list is the guy who went second in the draft and we're already not talking about him. And he's been second.
Starting point is 00:48:29 Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. D.K., what's his, realistically, what's his ceiling year one? What's his ceiling? Yeah, realistically. Like a QB2, I would say? I don't know.
Starting point is 00:48:42 Ceiling? Okay. He could be like a low N-QB-1, I guess. Yeah, but like what's his stat line? Like, how many rushing yards is Zach Wilson going to have in year one? Well, shit, I don't know. Like, I'll stop in my head. Let's look at what...
Starting point is 00:48:54 Let me look up what... Was it the ceiling that the... So the Jets' offense this year, we expect to be a discount version of the Niners' offense. So the ceiling is that it's really like a pretty good imitation of the Shanahan. that Zach Wilson's really good in it, right? So, like, it's not nothing. I'm going to pull up, I want to pull up the stats from last year to look at, give me some good, like, comparisons here.
Starting point is 00:49:17 What do we call Zach Wilson on the Take Purge pod? Kids for, what is it? Is kids Bob Jim McMahon? His Bob Jim McMahon, QB1. Okay, so here's some context. Lamar Jackson led the NFL with a thousand and five rushing yards. Keller Murray, 819. Cam Newton 592
Starting point is 00:49:36 Russell Wilson 513 And from there It was like Taysam Hill Deshawn Watson Daniel Jones 423 yards Do you think, let me ask you this Maybe this is the Daniel Jones line because most of it was scrambling
Starting point is 00:49:49 Do you think he's more athletic than Daniel Jones? Yeah I would say yes Well He's in the same range I think Daniel Jones is more I think Daniel Jones is more athletic Not for the scramble Drafting a fucking quarterback
Starting point is 00:50:03 Is like buying a car the second you drive it off the lot, it loses half its value. Like, Zach Wilson was so cool a week ago and now he's in the chess and we're like, eh, I don't know, Daniel Jones probably a little bit better than him. Dude, he's like 207,
Starting point is 00:50:18 210 pounds or something like that. I don't know. Like, is he going to be a big time rusher? I don't think so. I would say he's probably closer to like... But at the same time, Kyler and Lamar are not big people, but you just don't get hit.
Starting point is 00:50:28 That's the answer. You just duck it, dip out of bounds, three yards before you get hit and don't get touched. I think the thing of Zach Wilson that is the argument, The sneaky argument here is that the Bears defense will probably be good. But Justin feels at the rushing. I think the Jets defense,
Starting point is 00:50:42 I know they hired Sala. I don't think that the offense will be good. I have no idea is playing cornerback for them. They invested all their picks in offense. I think this is the year they're like, let's get the offense together. And I'm not convinced their rushing game will be very good. I think that they might have to be passing quite a bit.
Starting point is 00:50:58 And I think that's kind of the interesting thing with me with Wilson, whereas the Patriots, I think their defense will be a lot better. they will be trying to win every game, like 17 to 12. And that's why I don't really think Mac Jones has a high ceiling. I think that Zach Wilson's ceiling is like, shit, you've got to throw like 30 times every freaking week. And I think that that's kind of the interesting thing.
Starting point is 00:51:18 Same with the Jaguars in Lawrence. Last year, Justin Herbert, let's just say, Zach Wilson is like an incredible passer, like Justin Herbert was as a rookie. Justin Herbert threw 31 touchdowns to 10 picks. I don't think anyone was expecting that. I know, it's fucking crazy. For the degree of difficulty that Herbert was doing,
Starting point is 00:51:38 it's not like he was checking out. That is so impressive. And that was also in 14 games. How many games do you play 14? He played in 15 games. Oh, 15. So I would say that would be like the best case scenario is something around that.
Starting point is 00:51:51 Because like Herbert had one of the best rookie seasons ever, right? And so I would say that would be my best case scenario, like a low-end QB1. And then like realistic scenario, I would say he's probably, going to be like the QB20 or something like that. You probably know a thing of redraft, but in Dynasty, I think you probably want Lawrence Fields.
Starting point is 00:52:11 I think Lawrence Fields, Wilson, Lance Jones is kind of an interesting order for Dynasty, too, honestly. Although I think I might want Lance higher in a Niners Dynasty. Lance, yeah, I was going to say Lance is like arguably the QB2 in Dynasty. Maybe the QB1 because of being attached to Shane again, the rushing upside, all that stuff. Yeah. I don't know, this is an interesting class, but I think Craig's point is very well made.
Starting point is 00:52:31 Like, no, I don't think people are getting all that excited about. Jack Wilson and fantasy this year. I don't think it's going to happen. It's like a 2021 Toyota Corolla. Can I take a victory lap? What for? Yeah. For Medina Spirit, baby?
Starting point is 00:52:46 Oh, that was good. Pick that paid out and thank you to all the loyal, loyal people who've had faith in Medina Spirit and, you know, the courage to take the Bill Belichick of horse racing with the best jockey alive at 13 to 1. Just absolutely, just very impressive
Starting point is 00:53:04 I just love Jockeys. Yeah, we got to give that to you. That was well as I was just absolutely beating. Also, if anyone bet something because Danny Hifitz recommended it in horse racing, good for you. My friend did. My friend did that and he made money.
Starting point is 00:53:20 A truth degenerate. If you're like, I heard this guy in a fantasy pod talk about Medina Spirit and the Kentucky Don't bet on horses, bet on jockeys, baby. Oh my God. All right. You want to do a fun fact? Craig, you got a fun fact? Yeah, yeah.
Starting point is 00:53:32 So we haven't done fun fact. in a while. I feel like this is the first real fantasy episode of 2021. So we're back. We're going to get back to our regularly scheduled. Yeah. We're not getting back to regular schedule. We're going on a hiatus for like the rest of May. If you listened, I said regularly
Starting point is 00:53:47 scheduled segments, so. Oh, why would I listen to you? Right. You cut people off for they finish. You can't hear the other sentence. Okay. I was talking to my girlfriend's sister is about to become a doctor. She's graduated in med school and her friend is visiting. So we were just like
Starting point is 00:54:03 talking about medical stuff one night. And I found this out. And you know what? Maybe I'm one of the few people who don't know this, but did you know that when kidney transplants happen, they add a kidney, but they do not take out the diseased kidney. You have three kidneys now. Did you know that? No way. They keep the kidney inside you and just add a new one in like the lower belly area. Yeah. You knew that, D.K.?
Starting point is 00:54:30 I knew that. That blew my fucking mind. I don't know a lot about it, but I think the old organ, when it's not being used, like, shrinks quite a bit. They don't, they just leave the kidney in there. I had no idea. They said it's more of a risk to take it out than to just leave it. So you just got like a fucking kidney sitting in there. And the new one's in your stomach.
Starting point is 00:54:47 Pretty much, your lower stomach. Whoa. How weird is that? That's crazy. So if you ever hear somebody say, I have three kidneys, that means they got a transplant. I know what? I've never heard that, but I'll keep my ears out. I'll keep my ears open for that, the old three kidney.
Starting point is 00:55:03 If you had a trivia night and they're like, like, if you get a kidney transplant, how many kidneys do you have? Be like three. Hayden Hurst. Hayden Hurst and three kidneys. Those are the two takeaways you need to leave today's episode with. There we go. A third takeaway is that we will be going on break for like a monthish, something like that.
Starting point is 00:55:20 We need to go to the beach. Summer vacay. Thank you to the people who have been listening to us for so long. And this has been amazing. We'll be back in June. We're going to have a lot of fantasy stuff to say. But, yeah. Deacon, what are you going to do?
Starting point is 00:55:34 gonna do the beach you need some sun i'm not i'm gonna do absolutely nothing you know the uh the office space thing where he's like what would you do if you were just like had a million dollars and rich and didn't have to work i would do absolutely nothing i'm gonna literally just sit on my ass and do nothing it's gonna be amazing but what does nothing mean because that you watch yeah you're to read books yeah movies yeah like read go on walks oh you're a dad now you read books about world war two yeah dulae it's reading books about like the cia ancient rome yeah oh What emperor are you on now? Yeah, we're just going to be talking about like, yeah, so what's, what's Jamar Chases?
Starting point is 00:56:12 What rounds you take to Jermar Chasing? You're like, well, I was reading about Diocletian and, mm. It's very interesting stuff. You guys did a lot of draft coverage this year, so you were taking well-deserved time off. Big Board was a resounding success, so congrats on that. Thank you, Craig. Is this your way of saying, I'm not taking vacation in your chair? I'm not taking vacation.
Starting point is 00:56:32 I don't take vacation Craig you should just do this do the solo pod for the next few weeks by yourself dude that'd be so funny Just do the Rosillo Just like talk for like 40 minutes Can you imagine next Tuesday You guys are like at the pool
Starting point is 00:56:50 And you just pull out your phone And it's like you get a notification that the ringer fantasy show It's a new episode Craig's going solo Let me tell you Let me tell you about Chris Herringen Okay here's what people don't understand
Starting point is 00:57:01 Fucking Harry Styles over here. Craig's favorite offseason guys, part one? I can just imagine it. Craig is, Craig I just, by the way, it's perfect that you have a cutoff shirt with like bright red arms right now. Yeah, just to show you're wearing there.
Starting point is 00:57:14 It was so little already. Oh, man. Craig's favorite offseason guys part one plus best 2010's comedies. Yes. Wow. That's amazing. Really explore, really explore a lot of different.
Starting point is 00:57:32 Top five protein bars with Craig, part one. All right, well, we can look forward to that next week. All right, yeah. So we'll be back, what, mid-June? Well, we're going to have Craig's Rusillo episode. And then, yeah, mid-June-ish, and we'll talk, yeah, fantasy. Yeah, we'll be back mid-June. I'm going to be working on a special project that we can't announce yet,
Starting point is 00:57:51 but people will find out within the next week. That'll be going on in May and June and July, I think. So stay, stick around for that. And that will be really awesome. And keep emailing us. Don't stop emailing us just because we're not around. Yeah, ringer fantasy football at gmail.com, people. send us our way. Thank you again, everyone for listening. Thank you, D.K., thank you, Craig.
Starting point is 00:58:11 But most of all, the person who's gotten us through, I mean, this draft, this season, this really troubling year. Thank you, Lorne. Lauren Michaels. Thanks to the Mamas and Pappas. Shout out to Craig. Mamas and the Pappas, baby. Monday, Monday. Wow, I kind of wanted to go Brock Hampton. I don't know there's any Brock Hampton people in. Also, Porter-Robics, a new album. Unbelievable. Check it out. Maybe the Beach Boys. Beach Boys. I feel like. I was trying to think of something good summary. I don't know if Mama's in the Papa is really summary. Nurture. We all need nurture.
Starting point is 00:58:42 Hyvitz is trying to flex and say Brock Hampton so everybody thinks he's cool. No, they're just great. Very talented. They're like, DK sticking to the classics. Mams and the Papa's. Mama Cass, baby. Let's get out of here.
Starting point is 00:58:54 Goodbye, everyone.

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