The Ringer NFL Show - ‘Shark Tank’ Prop Bets - Week 13

Episode Date: December 3, 2021

We pitch each other on our favorite prop bets for the weekend’s games in the style of ‘Shark Tank.’ Later, we offer up our favorite long-shot bets. Join our FanDuel daily fantasy contest andsSign up to play against us HERE! Prop Bets (2:44) Long-Shot Bets (33:36) Don’t forget to sign up and compete against us in the Bad QB League on FanDuel HERE.  Email us at [e-mail]. Hosts: Danny Heifetz, Danny Kelly, Craig Horlbeck Producer: Craig Horlbeck Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

I'm Derek Thompson, long-time writer with the Atlantic Magazine on tech culture and politics. There is a lot of noise out there, and my goal is to cut through the headlines, loud, tweets, and hot takes in my new podcast, plain English. I'll talk to some of the smartest people I know to give you clear viewpoints and memorable takeaways. Plain English starts November 16th. Listen for free on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Your fantasy football show. My name is Danny Heifitz. I am joined by Danny Kelly and Craig

Horlbeck and it is we're recording Thursday you're listening this on Friday so we're doing Shark Tank Prop Betts baby coming to you for week 13 doing an instructing style I love it I love your energy yeah well I got it I got to do the energy

I have very little energy left like I got my booster yesterday and I'm just absolutely destroyed today so you're getting the absolute last of my energy They shouldn't call it a booster that's kind of a you know it's an oxymoron it makes you feel the opposite of a boost the immune system. I know.

Well. It's like the whole point. I'd just say. To be clear, it's a very good thing to do, Craig. I don't know. You know what? Enough people shitting on the vaccine, Craig. You know what?

You got to pile on. You're like the late hit. Ruffing the vaccine. Craig Coralbeck. Just do your own research, you know. Well, speaking of which, what a great segue, Craig. Antonio Brown has been suspended, along with, I think, a couple other bucks. Antonio Brown's been suspended three games for, quote, unquote,

misrepresenting, a forged vaccination card. So he's been suspended for three games. Can you cut him? Unless you actually have already made the playoffs and are getting a first round by. He's not going to play the next three games.

If you're like fighting for a playoff spot, I don't know. I don't know. I think he probably, if you've been hanging on for this long, because he's going to be back and he's still got that. He'll be back week 16, which is the fantasy semis.

you'll probably still play him honestly won't you yeah probably yeah i am just tired of this guy yeah he's losing like a hundred he's losing like a hundred eighty five k for this suspension the vaccine's free folks just saying all right uh what else we got oh adrian peterson seahawk how excited are we dude why is this a thing with that said let's get let's let's kick off shark tank because my first bet has to do with the seahawks oh let's do it yeah Craig need us away. Sharks. My first bet today I'm coming to you a simple request,

$5 investment on Russell Wilson to throw for less than 220 sorry, less than 230 passing yards. I'm in. Oh, free money? Oh, yeah, I'd love some free money. Thank you. Russ has done this one time in the last five games. He's also played the Niners this year, which he didn't throw for 230 yards.

He actually threw for 149 yards in that game. The Seahawks signed, Adrian Peterson. It's so money less than 3. That's like 80 yards less. Not to mention that the Niners are healthier and better now defensively. They're a top 12 team

and way to DVOA defensively now. The Seahawks are crumbling. They're establishing the run. Pete Carroll said, we're going to establish Adrian Peterson. He said that? Oh my God. Pete Carroll just tried to hire the guy closest in age to him and it was Adrian Peterson.

So, listen, the Niners have played the last three games the Niners have played and they've really kicked it up in their three-game win streak. They've played Kirk Cousins, who they limited to 238 yards, Trevor Lawrence 150, and Matt Stafford,

243 and two picks. 230 for Russ is high, considering he hasn't done this more than once in the last five games. It's kind of incredible that the oldest coach in the NFL is signing what is now the oldest running back in the NFL to play.

He needs somebody to talk to about the good old days. What was the war like? But in the number of, well, we're in win now mode for 3 and 18 with the top five draft pick that they've given a one. way. Oh my God, that got me. What was the war life? This is a great back, Craig. I mean, Russell Wilson, it is so clear that he came back from this finger injury, like, way too early.

And it's like, it almost get RG3 vibes where they're like, all in for week one. They're like, I'm going to be back. I'm spent 19 hours day rehabbing. And they're like, wow, that was a terrible idea. You like kind of need your finger to throw. I, I, all those reasons I'm in. So, yeah, let me, let me, I'll say, okay, I'm going to get to it. I'll get, I'll be in, but let me just explain my one concern here, Craig. Bill actually, I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm This is a reverse psychology bet. I'm jingsing this because I'm starting him in fantasy and I want him to do well.

I need to win either way here. I'm either going to win money or win in fantasy. That's fair. Bill actually texted me and he was like, why are the, why is the line three? Like, why aren't the 49ers favorite by like 12 points? Because every show's games within three points. And I was like, literally this makes no sense,

but also look at the history of Seahawks versus 49ers. Like Russell Wilson and Seahawks, I think in the Russell-Wilsa era, the Seahawks have lost to the 49ers like three times in like 10 years. Yeah, I mean, they beat them this year. It's bizarre. But Seahawks games are always close at the end. Like, isn't it that simple?

Like, they're always within a field goal somehow, no matter how terrible they are. The NFC West is like this weird circular thing. I'm not going to say circle jerk because that's not really what's happening here. It's the 49ers, sorry, the Seahawks beat up on the 49ers. The 49ers beat up on the Rams and the Rams beat up on. the Seahawks. It's like, if you look at the last like 10 years, that's how it goes. And I don't know what the Cardinals do.

They're just kind of in the division. But they're just around. They've been the little brother in that division for a while. They're like the best team in the NFC. But whatever, you know. The Cardinals could win the Super Bowl and nobody would admit they're good. So I won't admit they're good. Yeah.

All that being said, though, Craig, I do think that the Seahawks are just like in a state of disarray right now. and this passing game is not working. Like, nothing's working. 230 yards? That's a lot. On this note, so I'm in, I think we got a group shed here. We're all in on Russell Wilson under yardage.

Can I give you guys an even better bet than Russell Wilson under passing yards? Yeah, also, we're switching this up here. We're making it where we don't have to always bet player props now. So heads up, folks. Oh, cool. We're doing weird shit. Let me give you a better one.

Spanding our horizons. Yeah, we're growing. It took us 13 weeks. Sharks, there have been some elite investment opportunities in our lifetime. Uber, Apple. The advent of the internet. Yeah, Uber, Google, Apple, Amazon. This is the

greatest one of them all. I present to you the lock of the 21st century. Wow. Seattle punting more than the 49ers on Sunday. What's the line? The line, I almost thought it was a typo. You get

plus juice. It is plus 1.15. I have looked at this over, under, sideways. I actually think it's in the thing. The team that had five straight, three and outs? the team, the Seahawks have the most punts in the entire NFL. The 49ers have almost half as many punts. The Seahawks have punted 62 times the season is the most in the league.

The 49er says 35 punts almost half in the same number of games. This is fishy. And if the Seahawks punt more than San Francisco, then you actually make more than what you put in. You put in a dollar, you'll get back like $1.15. This is one of those lines though where it makes so much sense. actually wary. Why is Vegas doing this? What do they know? Who punts more doesn't get any attention from, I don't know who would, you know, these sites is setting the punt line. It just, they just throw it out there. They got a thousand

things to do. They're busy. We're too busy to research the pun one. That's pretty funny. Ben Baldwin on Twitter always posts these. I'm actually scrolling through here. I think that their offense, I think I saw their offense punts. And maybe it's actually the worst out with their offense punts, the second most. relative to like their actual first down possessions or whatever. Not possession, series. They pointed on a higher rate of series than all but the Texans, I believe. And a series is like every set of new downs.

Every fresh set of first downs. Like for instance, put in more plain English, the Seahawks have had three and outs. They had five three in a row against Washington. And they've done that twice this year now. The only team to do that twice. five straight three and outs. And also, if I can remind you, DK, they have the most puns in the league.

Yeah, I mean, that's, I was just trying to add on someone. I appreciate it. 27 more puns this season than the Niners. So anyway, I mean, my only question for you guys is, do you guys want to invest in this? Or should I just forget giving away equity? Maybe I'll just go take a loan out and put it all in this bet and I'll just, you know, make my own money. I'm going to do the Haralabobu. I'm just going to put my whole paycheck on this bet until it loses every week.

Well, listen, I'm already on the Seahawks are going to suck bandwagon. So, if I'm going Russ under 230 yards, I'm going Seahawks more punts than SS, so I'm in. I mean, it makes sense. Here's the deal. With Russell Wilson struggling, with D.K. Metcalfe, like not being able to figure out, like post-forsome era, D.K. Metcalfe, he just hasn't really figured it out, you know. He's really struggling. You could make the argument. Ask me if I'm wrong here.

or tell me if I'm wrong here. Michael Dixon's the most exciting player on the Seahawks. That's their punter. The punter. I was like, who's that? Michael Dixon, aka... The guy who did the double punt. Dude, everything comes back to Australia in this podcast, but he is an Australian.

Wow. And he is like one of the most exciting punters in the NFL. Just put it that way. He's the most exciting thing to watch on the Seahawks team right now. He was born in Sydney. I don't really care, to be honest. Like, no disrespect to Michael Dixon. He had the double punt that was.

cool. The only punter I will ever actually give a shit about is this getting college who's going to be like the 90-yard punter. Michael Dixon was this a raising. What's his name? Matt Ariza. Matt Ariza. Dixon was Arisa before Arise. He won the Ray Guy award. I couldn't do a shit about your punter. I'm sorry, D.K. Like, I won't watch this. Hifitz, give me this. I'm searching for something fun to watch with my team

and that is the reason. The fun part's winning the money. That's why I'm going in because I want to root for this. This guy, Michael Dixon, won was the MVP of the 2017 Texas Bowl. Yes, he was the MVP of a bowl game. Have you ever seen that? More of an indictment of like the other players in the team.

Hyphitz is just the booster. It's taking you down. Matt Arisea should be top 10 in Heisman voting. I actually think that there's a real argument. I actually, like, I'm not kidding. Like, I actually think you could make a very lucid argument for that punter. San Diego State's 11 and one.

I'm not fucking kidding. Yeah. Like he's, he has changed the profession. Like, like, don't they have, aren't they like 130th in offense? Oh, they're horrible. Ranked? because they're first in field position.

That's crazy. And they're just great on defense. So all they do is just line up Matt, he punts, we stop them on defense, and then score. That's our offense. It is not crazy to me that if you actually took away

one player from every team, that San Diego State would be the worst team if they lost that guy. Like, that's not crazy to me with the field position he gives them. Be like 100% genuine. He's worth like two or three wins. He should get a Heisman votes.

Like, he's not outside the top 10. Where's he going to get drafted? Second round. I think he goes in the second round. I actually, D.K., this will be a very big obsession of ours, like, as we do a draft pod, like, where this kid goes. Oh, that's awesome. I don't think he's a first rounder. What's the earliest a punter's ever gone in the last, like, 30 years?

Well, a punter was taken ahead of Russell Wilson like eight years ago, so it's not crazy. Yeah. I mean, I think Sebastian Janikowski, the Raiders took a kicker in the first round, like 20 years ago, which everyone forgets about. I was thinking about this today. Robert Aguil. I'm starting to do on my draft research and stuff. I do the top 100 for the ringer every year. And I'll just be 100% honest.

Like, I've never actually studied the punters coming out just because I don't care. Until this. And none of them are going to be in the top 100. I think this guy might be in the top 100. I'm not a hundred prospects. But, like, if he actually can't, like, I want to know the answer of, like, how his field goal kicking and how much that will translate. But, I mean, dude, if he can actually punt the ball, like 85 yards, like, he will go before the third round ends. It's going to be confident about that.

The Cucks are for sure taking him. All right. For the Patriots. Honestly, I actually think the Patriots take him, dude, and everyone will like... That would be kind of fun, but he'll be there for 12 years with Bill Belichick. The only thing is I think the Patriots have the best punter in the league right now, or one of them. Do you think Bill Belichick's going to pass... No, Bill Belichick's taking this guy. He'll trade up. He's going to... He's going to be the first time Bill Belich trades up for a guy.

Okay. Let's keep going here. D.K. Yo. Now that we've talked about the Seahawks for however long. All right, gentlemen. I have a bet proposition for you here. I want $5 on Derek Carr going over... Six and a half rushing yards.

Six and a half, number one, doesn't sound like a lot, which I like. Also kind of sounds like a lot. Six and a half, come on. That's not very much. How many times have you done that? I don't care. Can I ask why? I just, you know, it's a little left field here.

Yeah, I can tell you why. Because when Derek Carr runs, he lifts his knees up really high. And he looks like one of those dancing lip-is-onar stallions. Do you know what I'm talking about? The white style? The Portuguese horses that they shove the electric rods up their asses? Oh, I don't know about that. that. I don't know about it from that scene

in the, in the, the crimson in the red tie. I've been watching too many Lisa and videos high fits. Goddick. No, what's that Denzel Washington movie? Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Sure, yeah. Oh, Craig's just like, I see it every move in the world, and the second I talk about

electric rods up a horse's ass, he pretends not to have seen the Denzel Washington Gene Hackman movie. Do you guys see what I'm seeing, though? He like runs like that. Yeah, he does. High knees. He high steps. So why does that make me? He's a very proud runner. Okay. So that's why.

I'm basically just rooting. So he runs weird. So he'll get many yards with the run. Listen, I haven't had a lot of success with my props this year when I'm trying to like actually find things to root for here. So I'm just going for just fun stuff. That's what I'm doing. I was one for four. No, you, no, because you bet like the Devonte Smith over catches and yards.

He only had one of them. That's a missed bet. Yeah, so I give four bets. I'm one for four. It's pathetic. But I did it. Anyway. Here's some actual reasons besides him.

looking like a lip is on her stallion. Washington football team has given up the fifth most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks this year. They give up 95 yards to James Jones in one game. 17 to Matt Ryan. But Daniel Jones is like faster than Derek Carr. Matt Ryan. You didn't let me finish.

I met Ryan slow. Okay, that's good. 17 to Aaron Rogers, who's 39 years old and he looks haggard. Well, Rogers is faster than Derek Carr. He's haggard. They gave up to 16 to Russell Wilson, who runs like he's trying to take a dispatch to the general across like the battlefield. field. It's just like hunched over

the ball. First of all, when guys do that, like 1917, like they look, they run pretty fast when you're doing that. Oh, he tries to run fast. He's just not physically capable of it anymore. I feel like the whole stat about like this team allows X amount of yards to quarterbacks rushing. That usually just is all dependent on if they've just played

mobile quarterbacks, right? There's nothing to do with like... That's why I brought up to Matt Ryan, Karen Rogers, Russell Wilson. I remember that play, but like, D.K., I respect you a lot as a colleague. I also just have very little interest in being like, Derek Carr, run the ball.

So I, for that reason, I'm out. He has gone under this number twice in 12 games this year. I would have led with that if I were you. That's not, wait, that's not right. Oh, sorry, I was like that's the wrong thing. Were you looking at Daniel Jones who else? Wait, okay. Craig, thank you for that.

I'm so out on this right now. I can't even tell you. He's definitely not gone over it. He's gone over it. four times this season. I was looking at the wrong number. Derek, DK, you have lost my faith and not for that reason. I'm out. I'm telling you.

None of this makes sense. It's all logical. It's all illogical. I'm out too, DK. I think we broke in DK. All right, let's pivot here. All right. My new thing that I'm into is just when somebody plays really well, I just hammer it the other way, the next game.

I try to with Derek Henry. So Leonard Fournette had a four touchdown performance last week. Everyone's all on Lenny. We love Lenny, happy for him as a player. The line for him on total yards, sharks, total, rushing and receiving, is 102.5% Atlanta? He's hit this number once in the last five weeks, and it was last week when he had his big game. And I just think the 4 TD game kind of inflated his value a little bit.

The last time he played Atlanta, 15 touches 76 yards. That feels like a normal leaded 4-9 game to me. 15 touches 76 yards. Ronald Jones is even getting in the mix a little bit here. Brady's on the MVP campaign. He wants to throw as much as he can. I firmly believe that. I don't think 102 yards,

that's a lot of yards for Leonard Fournett. I'm going to take the under. I think this is exactly how you should be doing prop bets. It's like, oh, Leonard Fournett had a huge week last week, take the under. I think that's honestly why we had a bad couple weeks since we started taking overs. I think this is perfect.

I'm in. I like it because I think that you are right that they're going to pass a lot in this game. and that they're going to have success passing. The one product I was looking at, but I don't remember if I actually put it on here. I did not, but there was, I believe Brady's over under on completions

is 26.5. And I was like, that one looks pretty good to me. I think they're just going to have a ton of efficiency. They're going to move the ball, and they're never going to stop passing in this game. And I think that Atlanta's defense, they have no pass rush.

Yeah, like the worst in the league. They're like a terrible pass. defense. So for all those reasons, I like it, and I'm in. Sorry, Lenny. I want Lenny to do well, though. Late season playoff, Lenny. Sticking with this game, Matt Ryan, over 0.5 interceptions. Look, I know this one's going to be, this one's kind of pulpy. You want my Ryan over rushing yards? I mean, he did, he did have 17 rushing yards against Washington. It's a big deal. It's, it is pulpy. It's minus 185 for him to throw a pick. That feels like a little heavy.

What do you mean? Like you don't think it's going to happen? Well, it's just, I guess I need to see like, how pick friendly has he been this year? So he has at least one pick in every, in, sorry, he has not thrown a pick in only one game at a last six. Oh, wow. And several of those games, he has two picks. The Buccaneers are tied for fourth in interceptions this season with 14. Their pass rush, I believe, is going to get home.

It's going to force bad decisions. It's going to force him to get on the move, all that stuff that you don't want from Matt Ryan. the Falcons are going to be playing in trailing scripts, so they're probably going to have to pass a lot. I would imagine. And also, just throwing us out there, Matt Ryan, has a 0.0 on the matchup strength metric for pro football focus, which is not good.

0.0 is bad in that. How is that possible? That almost makes me feel like the matchups. You tell me about what is, like, a 0.0. So what was Luke Falk making his first start for the Jets in Foxborough and Sunday football two years ago? Negative 6? Yeah.

I don't have that off the top of my head, but yeah. something like that. I don't think it actually goes into negative. How on earth is Matt Ryan in 0.0? Because the pass rush advantage, I believe, is like going to be bad for him. And generally speaking, the Buccaneers, I don't know.

It is kind of interesting because the Buccaneers' defense hasn't been as good as you think it is, but this is just a bad matchup. I don't want to be anti-lytics guy here, but I feel like the PFF matchup score doesn't know that along with Antonio Brown, like the Bucks primary slot defender also just got suspended for having a fake vaccine card.

Yeah, that might be slightly different now. This was pre-vaccination thing. I think minus 180 just isn't appealing to me to root for Matt Ryan to throw a pick and for that reason I'm out. All right. Fair enough. Do you guys think the booster just got to me? Do you mind just in a cremaging mood?

I just think I don't honestly like I'm like, if you guys don't want to be in anime bets, I get it. Like, just go. That's fine. I'm required by contract to give you my, my pitches here. You don't have to take them. And I don't blame you. Yeah, 185 for a guy to throw a pick

against kind of an average secondary. I'm also, I'm going to lay off this, D.K. Okay. This is the week you go three for three, though, I bet. I guarantee it. You know what's funny about this? Is D.K.'s basically saying from Matt Ryan, you know what's going to happen?

They're going to get down early, and they're going to start pressing, and they're going to make a mistake. And ironically, I think that's what D.K.'s doing here. He's down early on the process. Now he's pressing. I get a 0.0 matchup rating. I think that's bullshit.

No offense to pro football focus. But like, maybe I don't get the metric. But a 0.0 is not possible for Matt Ryan. There's no way that Matt Ryan's a 0.0 against the box. Here's how they've got Kurt Cousins with a 10 going against Detroit. Wait, can you send me the link to this? It's just under the rankings for PFF fantasy. Send me the link to this right now.

I need to peruse this. I really genuinely want to know how Matt Ryan's is 0.0 against Tampa Bay. The same guy who does these rankings is the same guy who does the punt lines. We're too busy. That's exactly it. All right. They're busy. They got a lot going on.

Okay. I'm sticking to this game, though, I'm going to go Cordial Patterson over 37 receiving yards. Because, I mean, again, last week had a high ankle spray. And I was, I was concerned about how much Patterson was going to be able to do. And then it's 16 carries for 108 freaking yards and two catches for 27. He's obviously like the only way the Falcons can move the ball. But the difference is the bucks have a top three run defense in football.

So I just think that Patterson, he's not like a running back or receiver. He's like, this just a playmaker. But the plays won't come against Tampa Bay. in the running game. I do think we'll be passing. And like 37 yards for what is ultimately the best actual player

on the Falcon just seems pretty low to me. Craig? I'm thinking, I generally like this. I mean, he's hit this number more than he hasn't on the season.

The last two weeks he hasn't done it, though, but they got destroyed by Dallas. That game was a mess. And they didn't really use him in the passing game against Jacksonville because they were kind of ahead most of the game

and then Jacksonville made a late run. But pretty much when they're in games or when they're behind, I don't see why this bet wouldn't make any sense. So the game I would point to is the Saints game because those are similar. Like the Saints have a run defense

that's about as good as Tampa Bay. Like you can't run in the Saints, you can't run in the Bucks. And against the Saints, Cordell Patterson had nine carries for 10 yards, but he had six catches for 126 yards. Well,

and you could also point, I mean, they have played Tampa already this year and he had seven rushes for 11 yards so they couldn't run and he had 58 yards in the passing game. Yeah, that was in week two

when he was not even had the role he had now. So yeah, he almost doubled this number in week two before he even was playing as many. snaps. So, and now we're, you know, after they're by, they've kind of changed their offense for him. So I think 37's just too low. I like this one. And Calvin Ridley still doesn't look like he's going to be back this week. Cordarral, over 37. I am in.

Sounds like Quadriolson is healthy again after being sick last week. Maybe they'll give him more carries this week too. And yeah, but like, I do think overall just the idea that the logic that they're not going to be able to run the ball. They're going to use Patterson in the past game instead. Like that makes sense. That checks out. So I'm in for those reasons. Group chat. All right. Deke, I'm setting it back to you.

All right. Do you want me to even give my pitch? Or should I just go ahead and make these bets like by myself and sadness and despair? Okay, cool. Jalen Hurts, guys, over 47 and a half rushing yards. I am guessing this number is this number because he has been having, he's had an injured ankle this week. But it sounds like he's going to play. He's been downplaying.

It doesn't sound like it's that big of a deal. He wants to play. I think he's tough. He's going to go out and play. think he's not going to change the way he plays either. He's gone over this number, gentlemen, six straight games. He's averaged 66 yards per game rushing in those games. He's averaging 11 and a half rush attempts per game in that stretch.

So not only, it doesn't feel fluky, in other words, that he's getting a lot of rushing yards. Also, this stretch generally coincides with the Eagles' decision to kind of just switch gears and be a run team, base their offense around Jalen Hertz and the run game, how he can be an extension of the run game and do read option, things like that. He's still scrambling a lot, too. So I just think all the things point to that Him having just kind of like his His typical game and going out there and running a lot

I think that's like the strength of their offense They have to like they're going to make the playoffs They have to play the way that they've been winning And they're playing the Jets Who have been atrocious against opposing quarterbacks In terms of running the ball and their defense is just terrible And so and I also think they're going to have a leading script in this game So for all those reasons I think that hurts

is going to have a good game on the ground Yeah, I mean, the Jets absolutely suck. Yeah. And they can't stop anybody. I completely agree with your point that I don't think Jaila Hertz feels pain. I don't think he'll let pain stop. He's tough as hell. I'm half getting.

I'm half serious. He's tough. I really don't think that Jailen Hertz is going to be running significantly less because of the ankle. I think this is a really good one, Dek. Let's just say I'm more into this than the Derek Carr over six yards. The Derek car one, look, the Derek car one, I just want to be totally serious like it was just sort of a joke one.

But, okay, let's go. my only worry here is that his ankle is a little slower they just hand it off a ton and he runs off five times. Here's a couple of pieces of... It's an RPO, it's a read. It's based on what the defense does.

I know, but... That plus, I want to point this out, Miles Sanders banged up. Jordan Howard. I don't think... I think he might not be playing. He's still banged up. I don't think Jordan Howard's playing.

And I think Boston Scott was sick this week. I could have misread that. They're really banged up at the running back position, too. So they might not want to just be like, hey, here's a bunch of carries for our running backs. We're all Hurt, too. Yeah, Boston Scott and Jordan Howard did not participate

at practice today. Today's Thursday, so we've noted what's going on. Jalen Hurtz was limited with the ankle, but, I mean, it seems like he's going to play. He said he was going to play. What, Craig? Hertz said he was going to play. Yeah, so Hurtz is going to play, but yeah, to D.K.'s'clock, we'll see illness what that actually means.

Who knows? It's 20-21. But Jordan Howard seems unlikely. I think 47 yards is pretty. I like this bet, D.K. I'm in. DK. Yeah. I've been out on your first two bets. I don't want your pity, Craig.

But... You being in the group chat out of pity is worse than you not. I'm not doing it out of pity. I just want to let the music build. I'm waiting for the music to build. And I'm in! The shots of me and Craig, back and forth, back and forth. The tension.

Yeah. Yeah, that's good. Cool. Okay, folks. Sharks, sorry. Sharks. Sharks. You're not folks.

You're shark. Shark folk. I'm coming to you I'm out huge mistake you got to start strong can you imagine a guy walks into shark tank he's like

um sharks I mean folks shark folks he's like the fuck out of here shut it down he just hit like the escape patch and he falls through the floor

he's like I want to make pizza delivery easy again and I'm like I'm back in Okay, Joe Mixin, running back on the Bengals, over 86 and a half rushing yards feels high. 86 and a half. They're playing the chargers who have given up the single most rushing yards to football teams this year. To football teams.

First of all that's not true. To football teams. True. So I'm already, you're already. To NFL teams, sorry. Strike two. Professional football teams. Also might I add that since Joe Mixon has been healthy, he kind of battled some ankle injuries in

middle of the season. Last two weeks, he has received 28 and 30 carries in the last two weeks. They like to run the ball. Zach Taylor keeps the script balanced. He has not really gone away from that. We've always wanted the whole, the burrow explosion, the 2020 Bengals to come back. They have not. They have been extremely balanced. Even in negative game scripts, they run the ball the third most in the league. They're playing the chargers who are terrible on the ground. They're going to let the Bengals do what they want to do, which is run the ball. I like 86 and a half yards for Joe Mixon. I feel like I've seen this movie before

where we're like this running back will hit this really high number and then they never do. Okay. No, we did it once against we did Najee Harris against the Steelers

and what we failed to realize was that the Steelers suck. The Steelers are a dumpster fire and just can't move the ball. The Bengals are actually a serviceable team and also they commit and have a better line somehow than the Steelers do at this point

running the football. 2830 carries last two weeks? I think that's actually correct. I think that Mixon is like at this point the way the Bengals want to play and I think he's wanted to be for a few years but now their lines, I'm not going to say the one's good, but it's certainly the best their offensive line

has been like what feels like in four or five years. You know what? It's such a high number and that makes me want to not do it. But okay, how many carries would you need to know that Mixon is going to get that you would bet this number? 18. He's going to get 18 carries.

All right, you're right. All right, you know what? I'm in. Yeah. I'm going to remember. regret this, but like, I think you're right. When he has 28 yards at half. A high number.

Even though we went 0 for 10 last week betting all overs, and that's why we lost because we just should bet only unders. To be clear, we should only bet unders, like just to be totally clear here. My first two bets were unders, guys, so. I'm pretty sure if we check the numbers that we are betting.

I actually think our win rate in unders is 80% and our win rate in overs is the time. Holy! Wow. Yeah, just thrown it out there. But sure, I'll do the over on 87 yards. Why not? It does seem like a lot. It does seem like a lot. Fuck it, I'm into.

Yeah, let's do it. Throwing it. Throwing a fiber on it. He just needs, what, 12 times more rushing yards than Derek Carr is supposed to get this week. That was good math off the top. Was that correct, though? Is it? Oh, 80 almost basically. We'll never know.

Yeah. I'm not going to check. What are we going to do? All right, this is good. I'll give you one last one. You know what? Enough of the prop bets. I'm just giving you an actual regular ass bet.

Okay. I'm just giving you a regular ass two-team teaser, man. Eagles giving one of the Jets, bucks giving five to the Falcons. Like the Jets are awful, and the Eagles seem awful last week, but like the Giants, I know that maybe this is my Giants privilege talking.

The Giants are better than the Jets. Like the Giants' defense is James Bradbury and Adory Jackson. They do have good cornerbacks. The Jets don't, man. Like the Jets don't. The Jets are a, dumpster fire in defense. Their cornerback group is awful.

And they can't stop the run. I do not think the Jets are going to be able to beat the Eagles. So you move the line down to one. The Eagles just have to basically just win the game. And the Bucks just have to beat the Falcons by five. I think both those are going to happen swimmingly. I like the Bucks won a lot. I got weird vibes about the Jets game.

Don't you? They're in New York. The Eagles suck. J.1 Hertz has got a bulky ankle. This to me is like one of those like survivor pool weeks where you're like, oh, it's going to be the Eagles. and it doesn't work out. Everybody's hating on Zach Wilson.

Yeah, because he sucks. First of all, it's important to remember the Eagles D-line's going to manhandle the Jets out line. Yeah. And the Jets beat the Texans. They beat the Texans. Who cares? Like, the Texans can't manhandle the Jets. The Jets got, the Jets are able to compete when they don't get destroyed up front.

The Eagles are going to destroy them up front. Don't get me wrong. Like, this looks good to me. You know what I mean? Like it looks like a solid bet. But to my feeble little nascent brain embedding. Your smooth brain. I'm probably wrong.

For all the reasons that Craig just said about brains, I'm in. How about it? I just really think that... I think the bucks are going to dominate, first of all. I do too. And then I just can't... I can't see the Eagles losing to the Jets here. Could you see the Bengals losing to the Jets?

Because they did. could you have seen the Titans losing to the Jets? Because they did. But the Titans didn't have like seven of their best. That was like they didn't have any players. That's a fair point. Who cares? They're the Jets.

All their good players were out. I don't like your tone when you say, because they did. Ryan Tannahill was playing in the game. All right. Well, you know what, Craig, when we win this bet,

then you know what? I'll appreciate the nice little I got weird vibes. I got weird. This happens all the time. His spidey senses are tingling. You know what? It smells fishy.

It's too easy. I'm going to sit this one out. Good riddins. Didn't want them anyway. I just want to say, the bet makes sense to my head. It looks like a great bit. Looks like a great bet.

Let's do some long shots here. Craig. You should give us something better, huh? No, I just want to, God, I got a frog in my throat. Hold on, folks. I'm going to take a drink of water. Not cutting this.

This is like what I do. I would really prefer no one had to hear the sound that you just made. And it's literally at your control. Can we bleep it out? Like a curse word? We curse in this podcast. Can we bleep out?

like the coughs? No. Sorry. He's not going to do that. Because a cough that much worse. A bleep is kind of harsh to yours. Okay. I've hit on these in two straight weeks.

Two straight shark tanks. I've gone two and oh on who's going to score the first TD in the game. You love these. I love them. I'm going to ride it until I fall off. I'm going with Pittsburgh. Or you can just take the profit and leave. But I guess it's not the point of gambling now, is it?

No, to my little, my little fresh. My nascent. It's kind of like when Janice sits a three I mean, not anymore because I guess he's better, but it's kind of like when teams would be like, yeah, we really hope that Janice would hit the first two threes of the game, so we'd keep shooting the whole game. That's basically what Vegas hopes. They hope you win your first two bets like these, so you make the

next eight, and you're like, oh, I can't believe him two and eight in these. Yeah, you know, it's like the Tal Diga Nights, that's my brain. That's my brain. Newborn, baby Craig's sports betting brain doesn't know anything. Five pounds, eight ounce? Five pounds. That isn't your, how much is your brain way? Showdown time. Post-Vax? I have no matter.

who could say. Your head has got to be heavy, man. Some people's brains are heavier than others. All right, so I'm going to go Pittsburgh to score the first TD the game against Baltimore. They're at home. They're getting plus odds to do so. The Steelers are straight up somehow a better first quarter

scoring team than Baltimore. The Ravens start slow. Yes. And I know, like, TJ Watts not playing. He's at COVID, but I like following this metric. I like looking at first quarter stats and how these teams perform, and it's worked both times. I like the Steelers at home.

Getting in a touchdown. A little Chase Claypool 40-yarders get the game going. Before Big Ben gets exhausted. That's honestly how it goes. The Steelers have one good drive and they never do anything the rest of the time. Do you think they can win this game, Craig?

No. Because isn't this the exact kind of game the Steelers usually win the game where everyone's like, there's no chance? But man, Ben's getting worse. So, you have to be a job or anything? Like, you think he work?

out? I think he rides a bike for a half hour. Could you imagine if he didn't work? He goes walking. He walks. He's a walker. We have no T.J. Watt. Our offense is hurt. The lines hurt. Those are the games the Steelers win, dude. I feel like Washington and Pittsburgh are the two underdogs

I'm kind of looking at. Pittsburgh, it's entirely a vibes thing of just like no one expects Steelers to win. That's when they're close. And then Washington, I kind of think it's just as good as the Raiders. And like, Washington actually think is oddly well suited to beat the Raiders, straight up. I think Washington's a really, well-coached team. They're very

well-coached in the running game. Like Washington running the ball down their throat is like a very good way to beat the Raiders defense. I don't know. I was thinking about parlay in Washington. I don't want to parlay the Steelers. I'm just going to bet on Washington's an underdog. What is that? So you're just betting on Washington Yeah, yeah. I was thinking about it, but like the

Steelers, it's like, I'm intrigued in the Steelers as an underdog, but I don't want to parlay them. Washington plus 115, Money Line. Yeah, I think that's solid. I like that. All right. Do you want to hear my Moonshot? Because it's related to this. Yep. This is the bet $10 when a MacBook bet. Very unlikely to happen.

We acknowledge that. However, it's fun, and we want to do it. So here's one. Terry McLaren, there's three ways, three legs on this. Terry McLaurin, first touchdown score. It's 8 to 1. For Washington or in the game? In the game.

Antonio Gibson last touchdown score. Salt in the game away. Just controlling the clock, running. Gibson's getting better as the game goes on. He's getting better as the year goes on. That's 7 to 1. And then the Washington money line. All that together,

it's plus 12,500. So 10 bucks wins $1,260. What do you think? I'm going to make, I'll make this bet. I'll do this with you. It will lose, but I actually like this a lot. I mean, yeah, it's why it's the moonshot, but still. I like this one a lot.

What's frustrating is that like the whole point of like a $10 to win $1,200, dollar bet is you want to have it possible in the day, whereas this one if McLaurin doesn't score the first touchdown would just be immediately distraught. However, if he does, we're going to be freaking out. Yeah.

I'll do it. I'll do it with you. I'm in. Okay. And we can skip over last week's best. We kept the winning bets. We didn't do last week. It was two weeks ago, but still. Yeah, it's still painful. It still hurts to talk about. I don't want to think about this. Yeah, we couldn't do it last week because we literally didn't have any money.

So we had to wait for another. We had to wait for the, yeah, like the direct deposit to land. We're thankful for all the family members we're begging for money far from. Okay. Geez, I think last week really destroyed us. We're really tough. Okay. When we ring or listener league?

Yeah. Yeah. We got two folks. Ring or listener league. Go to fandal.com. I think it's, uh, we'll just, just Google, ring or listener league fandal. It'll be the first thing that comes up. Go to the fandel app.

We also still have the bad quarterback league. It's NFL game styles right at the bottom. We got bad quarterback. The ringer listener league. Do you guys have any specific players you like this week? I got two I like I want to talk about real quick. Okay.

Brandon, Brian and Iyuk. Have Waddle too. There we go. No, I'm not taking anyone against the Giants. The Giants are just incredible. You know what I mean? The guy I like this week is Jamal Williams for the Lions. I think Jimal Williams is a really big week.

Oh, that's a good way. Andrew Swift's probably not going to play. Honestly, Jamal Williams's numbers have not really, the price on Fendell's not reflected how much he will play. I think Jamal Williams could pretty easily be a top seven, top eight running back this week. He's not even close to really reflecting that. So I like Jevon Williams, baby.

Craig, what do you got? My thing isn't exactly like a risky bet, but I like the Brady and Mike Evans stack this week. I think this is like a three touchdown Mike Evans game. I think he did that the last time he played at Lennon. Mike Evans is always like a division killer. He always puts up huge numbers when he plays division teams, unless it's Marshawn Lattimore, and then it gets a little testy.

But Brady's going to have a really clean pocket this week, and that's when he's been the best this year. Atlanta has a really shitty pass rush. I just think Brady's going to have like four or five 10 cents this week. I do too. And I think he'll be the MVP frontrunner at the end of the week. It's up for the grabs.

And it's him, I think. Like, as long as he doesn't throw it away, I think he's the MVP. Can I give you guys a take or maybe I should save this for this take for later? No, go ahead. Because you know what like the thing is like, oh, everything's up for grabs

and MVP, the parody? I don't think there's any parody. I think the parody we're going to look back on as a giant freaking myth. So who do you think is good? it's like this every year? I think that the only good teams are the final four from last year.

So it's bills and chiefs and packers and bucks and then you're adding in the Patriots and the AFC and the Cowboys in the NSC. There's six teams. I don't think any of the other ones are legit. You don't like the Cardinals or the Rams? I do not think

I think when the Cardinals and Cliff Kingsbury get washed by a better coaching staff in the playoffs will feel very silly for being like, oh yeah, Kyler and Cliff in their first playoff games are going to be like great. They're not going to go win a Super Bowl.

I just don't think Cliff Kingsbury is going to win a Super Bowl and it's like first playoff. What about the New England Patriots? I put them in. It's the final four from last year plus the Patriots and the Cowboys. There's six teams. That's totally normal.

I think Hyphitz, I kind of agree with you about the AFC. I think the NFC has a lot of parody though. Also, I don't think it's necessarily, I think what you're saying, Hyfitts is not that controversial, but it's more that the records and the wins and losses

on the schedule are what's really spread out. The wins and losses are, but I'm also, saying like by the end of the season we're going to look back at it isn't like this because I think the cream is going to separate like the MVP is going to go to one of the teams probably they got to buy and just think it if the bucks or the packers get it it's probably going to be Rogers or Brady if the Cardinals get the buy and Kyler missed the month I think that'll be interesting but I also just don't think they will do you think there's any way they give Rogers the MVP I don't think there's

any way they give you no I think he will I really don't yeah yeah he fucking fake getting a vaccine anyone last year. You think they're going to give him it again? Oh, man. I don't think it would matter. I think him winning last... Dude, I don't think people are voting on the vaccine stuff. It's on Twitter. In real life, like, no. The real, the reality of MVP is people get bored, right?

Like, Rogers winning last year, but... If the Rogers thing came out right before the vote, maybe. But it's like in the Ruby mirror at this point, I feel like... No, I don't think... I think it's going to be Brady. Craig's going to lobby for it. He's going to be like...

I think it's Brady-Roddy. Just whoever came Keep bringing up the whole immunization thing, the whole quote, like immunization. Just like throwing it out there every week to keep people

plugged in. All right. And then lastly here, very important thing we have to discuss. We talked about what is upside down mean. Wait, we didn't talk about the bad QB league.

Make sure we're doing bad QB league. Yeah, check out the bad QB league. It's Fandle.com slash bad QB. Go to GameStiles NFL or NFL game styles. We're right at the bottom. Do bad QB. You can play against us.

Yes. But a lot of people point this out to us today. So today we're recording this on December 2nd, 2021, which is 1202-2-0-2-1 when you spell it out fully. And so not only is that a palindrone of 1202-2002-202. Double, like 1202-1. It's the same thing backwards and forward. It's the same thing back-wind forward.

It's also the same thing upside down, which reignited our conversation of, What does upside down mean? Crucially, it's upside down if you'd use rotational, whatever it's called. What is it called? The rotational. What's the actual technical word? Symmetry?

Symmetry, yes. Rotational symmetry. If you use reflectional symmetry, which is what you guys think in, that's like your main, that's your mother tongue, that's your language. Yeah, okay. It doesn't work because then the twos become S's. I've realized what I think of upside down I think of it like a calendar

like a physical calendar where you flip the page like top to bottom people were mad that I wasn't bringing this out by the way if you write on a piece of fucking paper the only way it's going to be upside down is if you rotate it if you flip it over you're not going to see anything well I think Hyvitz and I are almost thinking

digitally because we're millennials and you're thinking that actually could be something this actually makes a ton of sense you guys even know how to write can you write I haven't written in a decade Oh, you want my best take? My only take that's correct.

Okay. I have one take that's right, which is everyone who's a writer now, it should be called a typeer. Yeah. No one fucking writes. Yeah. Everybody knows that. But if you call people a typer.

Yeah, but if it was like, oh, I'm Danny Hype. If it's staff typeer for the ringer, that would be really demeaning. Roger Sherman's title on his Twitter is internet'sman. Internet's men. That's correct. Who writes? I'm like, yeah. that actually makes a lot of sense.

We just live on the internet. Anyway, yeah, Craig and I have internet brand. Okay, I think we've officially run out things to talk about. All right. Survive the Boosted show. Do we have Fendell odds boosted? I don't know. I guess that's only, we have to be at the Bill Simmons level,

like actual Fandler odds. One day. It's right. We got the Ringer Listener League. Check it out. Check out the Fendell.com slash Bad QB. Play against us. A lot of bad QBs out there.

Thank you, D.K. Thank you, K. Thank you. All the people pointed out rotational symmetry. Reflectional. That was really crazy. And thank you again, everyone who had us on our Spotify rap. That was really cool. Thank you to people tweeted us and put us in Instagram and emailed us. Yeah, that was awesome. It actually means a lot. We really appreciate it. Somebody tweeted me saying like, hey, I reject the fact that only people, you're only counting the amount of minutes listened on Spotify. Like I listened to every episode on Apple. Oh, that's fair. And my response to that is, I don't know what to tell you. I, I, Apple doesn't track your numbers like Spotify does. So that's just one of the prices you have to pay. Got to bump the numbers. that was the rookie numbers? Those are rookie numbers. Hop on over to Spotty.

Come on Spotify. Water spot over here. Come on. Come on in. Yeah. There's room. Give it those stars. Come on in the waters.

Give us those stars. Give us those stars. Love that money. Goodbye, everyone. Whoa, whoa, whoa. Oh, my gosh. Oh, my God. Oh, I got caught up in the thanking real people.

Thank you, Lauren. Lauren is as real as it gets. Hyphids. Thank you. Why? That's so embarrassing. Well, no, it's not. I was just so caught up.

in the moment of thinking people put us on the ramp. She doing Y? Yeah, W-H-Y question mark. Oh. Good music, good songs. I don't know that. Look up the song, George Washington by Y. Okay.

First thing came up was Sabrina Carpenter, the song named Why. What do you want me to go? Why, question mark, what song? George Washington. Why George Washington? But if you Google just why question mark George Washington, it's like, why is George Washington important? Why did he die?

This is like when we were named the Dantasy podcast and anytime anyone types it in, it's just, did you mean fantasy? Yeah, it wasn't our finest idea, was it? I can't get this, D.K. That's fine. Go to Spotify. I just, you have an account?

I think you have an account. I'll pull it up on the old spot. Check that spot. Craig. We're testing the limits for what Craig will leave in. Yeah, how long can we go here? None, we're done. Goodbye, everyone.