The Ringer NFL Show - ‘Shark Tank’ Prop Bets - Week 14

Episode Date: December 10, 2021

We pitch each other on our favorite prop bets for the weekend’s games in the style of ‘Shark Tank.’ Later, we offer up our favorite long-shot bets. Join our FanDuel daily fantasy contest andsSign up to play against us HERE! Prop Bets (1:05) Long-Shot Bets (32:14) Don’t forget to sign up and compete against us in the Bad QB League on FanDuel HERE.  Email us at [e-mail]. Hosts: Danny Heifetz, Danny Kelly, Craig Horlbeck Producer: Craig Horlbeck Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

I'm Derek Thompson, long-time writer with the Atlantic magazine on tech culture and politics. There is a lot of noise out there, and my goal is to cut through the headlines, loud, tweets, and hot takes in my new podcast, plain English. I'll talk to some of the smartest people I know to give you clear viewpoints and memorable takeaways. Plain English starts November 16th. Listen for free on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Your Fantasy Football Show, my name is Danny Hyphitz. I am joined by Danny Kelly and Craig Worldwick. It is Friday.

Not really what we're producing this on Thursday, but your list of this on Friday. It's Shark Tank. We're doing prop bets. We're diving right in. We're doing it. We're going right in it. Woo. DK.

Yo. Give me a prop bet right now. Wow. Okay. I got one for you guys. Bring it. A $5 investment. Mike Evans going over 59.5 receiving yards against the bills this week.

Let me lay it out for you guys. Okay. Number one. I don't know. I just looked at that. That number didn't feel super high, especially compared to some of the other guys in this game. The bills are without Trudevius White, the rest corner. Evans has gone over this number this year, eight of 12 games.

Last week, Evans had 133 area yards and a 41% area chair. He's getting a lot of looks, especially downfield, deep shots. I think that's going to continue with Antonio Brown still out. And more importantly, I think the big thing here, Craig, I'm pandering to you on this one. Oh. I'm riding the Brady for MVP. train. Brady wants this MVP baby.

What just happened? I'm pandering. Why are you pandering not to me? Because I know that you don't get pandered to. You want to get pandered to? If I tried to pander to you, you'd probably reject me anyway. I love pandering. Craig has a softer heart.

That's fair. Maybe I should offer you actual money. Also, what is Brady MVP train have to do with Mike Evans? I actually genuine question. I'll pay you $5 to go in on this bet with me. Why aren't you taking the over on Brady then? Okay, so here's why. I think there's going to be a lot of passing yards in this game.

Number one, I mean, apart from the whole Brady thing, the Bills and the Bucks are the NFL's two highest neutral situation passing teams. So in other words, both of these teams want to pass the ball all over the yard. The overrunner on this game is 53.5. The Buccaneers implied total in this game is 28 points. I think they're going to pass a ton. I think, and that also is kind of like this whole Brady thing. Like he's going to want to have like three, four touchdowns in this game. You know, it's a big game.

Two really good teams. I don't understand that part. Like, are you saying that Brady wants to win MVP so he will throw for more yards? Yes, correct. I don't think that's at all how he thinks. He's going scorched earth. Are you serious?

Or is this like a bit? What are you talking about? Uh-oh. We've actually think Brady cares about a several times. Mom and dad are fighting again. No, what is your question? I'm basically saying that I don't think Brady cares about his stats.

I think he wants to win the game. Oh, no. I completely disagree. Craig and I have talked about this multiple times on the podcast. Now you're disagreeing with it. I thought it was like a half bit. I mean, no. The first part you said I love.

I love like the neutral situation pass rates. Like the bills throw a lot, the bucks full a lot, throw a lot. This is how they want to win. But the passing is the means to winning. Brady wants to win MVP so he's going to throw more is I don't think that has any credence. Okay. Fair enough. Craig, thoughts?

With all that said, I'm in. I pandered to the right person this time. I actually thought about Mike Evans putting him down as well. He's gone over this total like the last three games, and obviously they're still without Antonio Brown, Bill's missing Trudevius White, with such a high total, 59.5. I mean, that's what the second highest total of the Bucks receiving core.

I think the Brady line's like 307. If Brady's thrown for 307, excuse me, Mike Evans is going to have more than 59.5 yards. So I do like this a lot. And I'm with you. on the Brady. You know what I think? I think Brady will check out of a run on third goal to throw a touchdown. Because I think he wants to lead the league in touchdowns at fucking 44, whatever he is. And I think he wants to win the MVP over Rogers.

Brady's a psycho in a good way. Convinced D.K. of it in real life. This is what I think happens on the internet. Like 14-year-olds fuck with people and then they don't get the sarcasm translation. So I'm the version of like a little shitty kid playing call of duty against like an adult and I'm 14. I'm talking shit to him. You're the 14 year old on Reddit and DK got converted to Q and that's what just happened here. to my family because Craig is trolling me on on like the gamer shit basically like this 14 year old kid so I think there will be a lot of passing this game but honestly I'm just

zooming out here for a second guys we we've not been doing well on these prop bets and it's because we got away from the unders the overs the overs are more fun to bet but like the overs we didn't get away from the unders we never went for the others I did I started one week we started 14 of 15 on the season doing unders somehow got shamed into doing overs and here I am. I'm going back to the under's this week and honestly I'm out because this isn't over. Oh, you just out on all overs?

I told you. I have to be really convinced to go back to overs. I'm serious. Wait, wait, I explained to me why you're not convinced about Mike Evans getting 60 yards against the bills at home. Because Mike Evans is just really volatile, man. And I just, seriously, this is, this is austerity

season. Like, I, we got to stabilize. I'm going back, I'm going back to underseason. Like, I need a break glass in case of a urgency over. That's what I need to hear. All right. Hi Fitz. You'll like my next one, but we'll talk about that later. You want his role with it right now? No. Is it about someone who really wants the MVP? So they'll try harder. Let's move on.

Craig, you're up next. All right, guys. I actually knew that Hyphiz was going to, he wants us to start with Under, so I moved my under to the first one. That's pandering. That's what it looks like. That's right. I'm courting you. All right. Matt Ryan. We all know and love him. Pretty average. Next Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback, Matt Ryan. 243 and a half yards is his line against Carolina Panthers in Carolina. I'm taking the under.

I'm in. I've been to say, Carolina's got a really good secondary. They've given up the fourth U.S. fantasy points to quarterbacks this year. They have also a phenomenal pass rush. Their second in the league in sacks. Ryan's last four games,

297 against the bucks last week, which everybody does against the bucks. And then after that, 190, 153, 117 team. This offense is rudderless. They have no one to throw to. Kyle Pitts has been terrible because teams are keying in on him. They have nobody else to go to.

Pretty much 250 is what I'm taking the underrun from Matt Ryan against Carolina on the road. Give me it. I love this one. It's related to another one of my props. But yeah, I agree. It's like the mismatch between the Panthers' pass rush and the Falcons offensive line, I think,

is going to be a big factor here. So I can have a lot of time. This game is in Carolina. I don't know. I just, the Falcons offense, they were humming along there pretty well for like two weeks, but the wheels have completely fallen off at this point.

Their best receiver at this point is Cordarral Patterson, and he's like they're running back. So, I don't know, it's just a messed up situation with this offense. I'm in for all those reasons. I like Matt Ryan going under here. Bang. Yeah, Falcons are bad. I love unders. I'm in. You know what, though? I will say

I actually, DK, get to your next bet, actually. We'll talk about it now. Okay. Related to this. So we were talking before the show. There's just not very many good props, so we were also looking at lines. like the Panthers to cover here against Atlanta. They're favored by two and a half. I think there's going to be,

this is going to be an interesting game to watch. The Panthers just fired their offensive coordinator, Joe Brady. So I think that they're going to try and come out and like showcase their new identity. Sounds like the new, which will be what? Like run heavy, dominate. And that also kind of has to do with my,

why I'm going on the Matt Ryan thing is like, I think they're going to try and control time of possession. I think they're going to try to run. Like Cam Newton, utilize him in the run game. I just think it's going to be hard for Atlanta to score points in this game. And I think Carolina, or I think Carolina is going to try and, like, debut this new smash-mouth identity that I think Matt Ruhle wants. Like, that's why apparently one of the reasons he fired Joe Brady because Brady wasn't running

enough. He promoted one of his, like, I guess there's, like, childhood friends is like the new offensive coordinator, like one of his cronies. So, like, he's going to run this offense that Matt Ruhle wants to run. Okay. And so. A childhood crony being promoted? it isn't like a great sell for me, D.K.,

I'm gonna need to know why you have such confidence at a childhood crony running in office. I don't. What I'm saying is this new guy is gonna do exactly what rule wants, which I think is to dominate like on the ground in the trenches, you know, control the clock.

And I just think that Atlanta's gonna have a hard time scoring in this game. So I'm taking the Panthers covering in this one. So I have a long shot coming up that involves the Atlanta money line, which I like. So I do think Matt Ryan's gonna go under. But I,

there's only, there's two reasons why I'm not, betting on the Panthers. Christian McCaffrey's not playing and Cam Newton's the starting quarterback. I'm never going to bet on Cam Newton laying points. I'm just not. Even if it's on the road and I think Matt Ryan's

not going to throw for 240, I still think that this is going to be like a 17 to 14 win for Atlanta. I don't want anything to do with Cam Newton laying points. So unfortunately, I'm out. You want Atlanta to win. That's surprising. Okay. That's fair. Yeah, I mean, I get what you're saying with the Panthers' defense giving the Falcons offense problems.

And I get the Falcons defense is bad, but like, I also cannot have the Panthers laying points in any scenario. So for that reason, I am out. I don't know why, but I have more confidence in Cam Newton this week than I did. I think Cam is just so bad. I think he's volatile. And I think against this Atlanta defense, it will be fine. Volatile is polite.

Yeah. I polite indeed. Okay, well, speaking of volatile, let me guys give you a bet. Sharks. Yo. Let me talk to you about a minnow. I got Davis Mills under 221 passy votes. dare you i mean this i you know i don't think i have to say very much again the line is under

221 passing yards i thought i read this wrong but it's true the texans seven had 221 total yards in three weeks oh my god like what am i missing here this line is wrong that's rough um the searchs defense has been better not exactly world renowned for its quality right now um it has the jets d because the texins had 202 yards against the jets total. That's so rough. Well, Tyrod is playing in that game most of it, right? I get that, but like, I don't exactly have a ton of confidence in Davis Mills. Basically, Davis Mills has only gone

over 220 when they get absolutely blown out and gets it in garbage time. The Seahawks are not capable of blowing anyone out. So you even think, like, this is like a nine point spread. You don't like that? No, no, no, no. I actually think the Texans in a teaser is actually kind of interesting if you're like a sadist like me. You want to bump the Texans like eight and a half. You want to move them to

14 and a half, go for it. But like, I think this game is close enough that the Texans by cover, but I do not think Davis Mills gets too much. Leave it to the Seahawks to play a close one against Houston. The one, here's one variable, which could be actually an argument in favor of you. High Fits is Jamal Adams is out for

the season with a shoulder injury. That's in favor? No, I was, the player you traded two first round picks for, you know what? He's just too predictable on defense. I was joking. I was joking. He has been playing pretty well this year in the role that they have him playing, which is more just like of a traditional

box safety versus like a pass rusher like X Factor kind of guy, which I guess he's not super happy about, but he has been playing well and the Seuax defense has been playing better. However, like taking him out, going with a guy like Ryan Neal who has very little experience, that is a potential red flag. However, all that said, it's Davis Mills. Like, he looked great against the Patriots and that's it. Like, otherwise he's been really, really bad. So for all those reasons, I'm in.

Um, you know, know what? Okay, let me ask this. Is there a chance that once again the Seahawks run way less plays than Houston in this game and that Houston actually gets like 67 snaps? Is that possible? I mean, it's happened like, I think how many games did they play? 13, 12? It's happened in 11 out of the 12 games where the Seahawks have been severely out, like, numbered in terms of plays and total like yards and everything. This Seahawks, Texans game is a chance to be the most disgusting football game of the entire season. And that's saying something. I guess just, I'm like, like, huge Houston has no running game.

And if Seattle gets any kind of lead, I actually think, I think I'm out. I think Davis Mills might just garbage time at till like 240. I think there's actually, you know what? Here's an interesting issue that I just kind of thought of.

Like the Seahawks, like their philosophy on defense is Ben don't break. And they've actually been really good at this this year, like surprisingly good, especially in last few weeks, where they give up a fuck ton of yards, but then they sort of stiffen up in the red zone and make stops and force teams into field goals

and things like that. So that is also sort of in the back of my mind here a little bit worried. I'm staying in high fits because I want to believe in the CX. When you said Ben don't break as a philosophy, is that a philosophy? Or is that just what defenses who kind of sucks say, because they're not good enough to get stops earlier on drives? No, well, a little bit of both. But it has been a consistent thing the CX do over the years.

Like, don't get beat over the top, keep everything in front, rally and tackle. Like, that's been a big part of their philosophy identity. And then once they get into the red zone, like, you know, there's just less room for offenses operating. And they do their thing. but no like generally speaking they're always like keep everything in front like don't keep you over the top does every defense do that but that sounds like what the every other defense does every news in the world now is like we keep things in front of us no deep balls like maybe i don't know

if it's just we figured it out because of this number two thing that's been so prevalent this year is like why you're like hearing that but like there's dude there's other teams like a lot of teams do like really heavy heavy blitz looks a lot of teams like seven on the line like like you know trying to make the confuse the defense trying to confuse the offense trying to confuse the offensive line. Really blitz, like exotic blitzes, all this stuff. Like the TX, I mean, generally, over the years, haven't done this. Like, now this year, their defense is a little more complex, but like for, I think philosophically, they're still sort of, and the numbers bailed out. Like, they've given up a ton of yards, but then been much better in the red zone than they

have rest of the field. So I was saying my fault, but we've talked too much about Davis Mills. Let's move out here. Okay. Fair. All right, hi, Fitz. I got an under for you. Five dollars. I'm in. I don't care who it is. All right, so Josh Jacobs going under 58.5 rushing yards against the Chiefs this week. My initial instinct and High Fitz, you'd be glad that I ignored it,

would have been take the over because Jacobs is going to get a lot of volume in this game in theory because he's the only guy left in this backfield. However, there's a couple factors here working against him, I think. Number one, the Chief's defense has been really heating up of late. Like, they just been a lot better over the last four or five weeks than they had early in the season. In fact,

they've been one of the better defenses in the NFL in that stretch. And number two, I don't think the Raiders still have any way of stopping what the Chiefs actually want to do on offense. You know what I mean? And like, we saw this a couple weeks ago. The Chiefs threw the ball 50 times. It was like the one game. They were the one team who was like, you know what? This whole too high thing that's been working?

That's because they're incapable of running it, I think. Like, they just don't have the personnel. And so I think the Chiefs are going to have more offensive success than we have seen with most of the other teams that I've been playing them lately. And so I think that the, I think the Raiders are like Jacobs is just going to get. get game scripted out of this game on the ground. I think he'll have pretty good value in fantasy because he's going to be utilized in the passing game some. But the last time

they played, he had seven carries for 16 yards. Drake had four carries for 16 yards. This was a few weeks ago. I think that Jacobs will do most of his damage in the air. The Vegas offensive line is not a good matchup for the defensive line right now for the Chiefs, I think.

And so, yeah, I just think mostly it's just game script I'm going with here. I think they're going to be playing from behind. They're going to have to like go up about pass more and things like that. The Raiders. The Chief's defense over the last month, like they got their players back. Like people are healthy.

Chris Jones is back. The last month, they held the Packers to seven points. That was like Jordan Love, but whatever, they still held them to seven points. They held the Raiders to 14. They held the Cowboys to nine points.

And they held the Broncos to nine points. The Chiefs, like the Chiefs are like a defensive team now. It's kind of ridiculous, but they are. Yeah. So I like this, DK. I like this a lot.

I also love your first instinct was an over. And then you went under. I'm in. Doing this, the Costanza, just go on the opposite of my initial instinct on this one. Yeah, that's really what I want here. The summer of D.K. His normal sandwich is like, tuna salad on rye, you know what? I'll get chicken salad on wheat and a cup of tea.

That's what happened to. A cup of tea. I'm going to go in on this one with you as well. Woo! I just, one, the Raiders offense is so uninspiring these days in the way that Kansas City's been playing. I like this a lot. Also, Jacobs hasn't hit this in many of his past few games anyway. Also, he's always nursing an ankle injury, always a candidate to just like miss a quarter and a half.

Yeah. I mean, that's, I think that alone is like a reason the hyphids wants us to bet unders. It's like the injuries get hurt. We'll just think win more than overs. Well, yeah, I mean, but that's what I'm saying. I think that's part of the reason why is like guys get hurt, you know? I mean, this game, maybe this will be an old takes exposed because this will, this pud will release after the Viking Steelers game. But like, if you want to grab Dalvin Cook unders, if you,

he plays, I mean, shit. I can't believe he's playing this week. It's like two weeks after a major shoulder injury. He's like a game time decision. If he plays, I don't know. People are listening to this on Friday after Dalvin Cook had like 20 carries for 145 yards. Yeah. Do you know that he did dislocate his shoulder two years ago and then he had 27 carries? Honestly, the real struggle is what do you do with Alexander Madison? Again, this is all in retrospect.

I think you play both of them. I think you play both. Again, let me, wait, let me pull it up for quick. I mean, this is kind of a pointless thing to talk about because it's over, but again, I just want to throw this out. Dwayne McFarlane tweeted this earlier today. Should we do a segment called Thursday Night Football Predictions? Friday morning. Again, Dalvin Cook dislocated his shoulder,

played again within two weeks, just like this week, and then he had 28 attempts for 94 yards and two touchdowns. Just throwing it out there. I know, I don't know. Okay, Craig. I like the Bengals. getting points versus the Niners at home.

They're plus one right now. And I'm only going to bet this if Debo and Elijah Mitchell missed time. Because if they do, and Debo didn't practice and Elijah Mitchell didn't practice, Elijah Mitchell's got it, he's in concussion protocol, and he's got a knee thing that just flared up. They have literally one running back. They signed some guy recently. But Jamichael Hastie is the only healthy running back they have.

They just lost Emmanuel Mosley, their best corner. They have literally no cornerbacks. And they're just going to play without anybody? Like nine guys on the field. They're signing us three. Yeah, okay. And I just like, I don't know. I like the Bengals.

I like Joe Burrow. I think their receivers are going to tear up the Niners secondary. I think Jimmy G's going to have to, like, throw a lot in this game, which I don't like. So I think the Bengals getting one at home, and again, they have to win. I know Burroughs got the Pinky thing, but he's already indicated that he's in a play. He kind of was playing okay. He's a gamer. He's playing okay with it last week.

He was, like, still thrown for, like, 10 yards in attempt. So I like, since he's getting a point at home a lot against the beat-up Niners. I'm into that one. So, like, yeah, the 49ers have been really getting hot lately, but part of that reason is because they had been getting healthy. You know, they got Debo back, they got Kiddle back. Ayuk was starting to come on and all that stuff. Like, everything together was really helpful for them.

Is Fred Warner playing in this game? I haven't seen if he's getting healthy yet. I think he's not expected to miss too much time. So anyway, but like I think part of the reason they were so bad earlier in the year, or at least losing games, is because they were so injured. And so, yeah, I think this is like something we have to keep into or take into account here. This injury situation is not good for San Francisco. I was listening to Solac talk about this game on the ringer gambling show on Wednesdays,

which everybody should check out, Ben Solac. And he was talking about how Jimmy G is a decent quarterback when he can kind of see what the defense is doing. But when defenses kind of get creative and tricky, he has trouble reading that. And he said that, you know, that's what Cincinnati does really well as they kind of disguise their defensive packages. And if they have literally no running game, I don't know if Trey Lance is going to play a little bit in this game or what. but I even if Debo plays like are they going to run

with Debo that's how he hurt his groin like I don't know what they're going to running is their game and they don't have anybody so I don't know I like the Bengals

I'm into it I'm in I think this is convincing Craig there's you're right there's just so many players that are important for them to be injured that I agree being able to get points

I'm also in nice it's kind of fun doing the lines guess the lines we should start a bit called that that's good idea We could really build something around that.

I like that. It's pretty good. You guys want to guess my next bet? Under and under? An under? I'm going over. Shut up. No, I'm just kidding.

Nick Chubb under 68 rushing yards. What am I missing? He had, the Browns played the Ravens two weeks ago. He had eight carries for 16 yards. One six, not 60, 16 yards. Now the over under 68. Am I taking crazy pills? well I think we I don't know I mean if you look at four out of the five games before that

game he had 130 hundred 37 16100 yeah he's playing awful one of those was like the lions they're like the worst run d in the NFL they there's no team chubb is worse at in the entire league than the ravens he did not play well against he's had one good he said one really good game against the ravens in his entire career and other and also the raven's secondary is depleted like I just also the browns don't have their right tackle jack conklin like I know he got hurt in that Ravens game, but like I just, this is a high number for 68. And like, it's easy to look at the over because he's been going over, but against terrible run, D's. I agree. And also like, like, if the Browns want to win, maybe throw the ball against the worst secondary in the league against Baltimore.

Like, that's probably the way to do it. I actually like Kareem Hunt a lot of this game. If Baker doesn't have a good week this week, like, if Baker is another like 140 yard week this week, uh, case keyedom time, baby. Brough. Not good. Anyway, but yeah, Nick Chubb, 68 like if he beats me whatever but like I just you know he literally had 16 against this team two weeks he dies he dies um I am going to be out on this one simply because Nick Chubb is I don't know he just seems like one of those guys he could rip off like an 80 yard run and it wouldn't surprise me um so they get you DK that's how they get you I am going to be out although I think the the logic here is fine I don't have a strong argument against it I just think Nick Chub's feet grip the ground

differently than everyone else on Earth. And he's more explosive than anyone else I've ever seen. And I just love Nick Chubb. So I think he's going to have a 60-yard run in this one. So you take the over on longest run. Yeah. D.K. is like over 68 longest run of the game.

I am in with you on this one. Highfitz. I want to ride the under train. All aboard. All aboard for the people who want a winning record. Thank you, Mr. Horleback. We'll take your ticket. Now, let me pitch you on. and over. God damn it!

Tyler Lockett! Over 65 and a half receiving yards, first of all, Lockett is the only player who's been consistent on Seattle this entire year somehow. And even more so, he's mallet fingerproof.

His last three games, he's been amazing. He's hit the over on this line easily in each of the last three games with Russ and his messed up finger. They're indoor playing the Texans. The Texans can't rush the passer, which the Seahawks give up a lot of sacks.

That shouldn't be a problem this week. I think he could get this by half time. He's getting a ton of targets since Russ has been back. This seems really easy to me against a really shitty secondary in a game that I think to see how should win by 14.

I like this one. So, yeah, it's tough because obviously... Who's gonna catch back? Like, if they win this game, that's a nine and a half point spread. They have like seven running backs who all suck.

Like, who, I don't understand who's gonna have the yards if they're a 10 point favorite. Like, how are they going to win this game? Who's putting up the yards? Yeah, not Freddie Swain. And the D.K. McK.

Hickoff is now getting five targets a game, and Lockett's getting like 10. I am going to go in with you on this one. I think, so this is probably going to come back to bite me, but I think the CX offense could finish kind of strong down the stretch. Like, I know we've talked about, like, how volatile they are and how we don't trust Russell Wilson. In fact, did we put Russell Wilson in the Burnwick? I can't remember.

I don't think we did. I think we did. But, like, their schedule down the stretch is really nice. And this Houston game, in particular, is like a get-right opportunity. last week, quietly, it was kind of like overshadowed by the fact like Gerald Everett had these egregious

turnovers, but like Russell Wilson completed 81% of his passes. He would have had four touchdowns and no picks. I think if those, if Everett hadn't dropped the first one, then he dropped a shovel pass by the goal line. And we'd all be talking about how Russ is back, you know, against the San Francisco defense.

Now, obviously it's a little different because that didn't happen and, you know, the mallet finger thing. think he's like the offense really did look different in this last game they're also getting healthier i would imagine every week yes it's another week to he probably should have came back last week or this week in reality also like i i think i mentioned this when he was hurt but like he also regardless of the injury he also seems to have like two or three games every season where he just looks like dog shit um for whatever reason like he just he just goes into the game and he sucks um but for the most

part he's been one of the more consistent pastors in the NFL over the last like decade so um betting on that against this terrible Houston defense, I feel good about that. To be honest, I should look and see if I can find it. I would like to bet this over for the first half alone. I wonder what odds I could get on that. I really do feel like this is the type of game where in the first drive,

and Lockett does this all the time where he's like three catches for 71 yards in the first drive. And you're like, oh, it's one of those games. Yeah. Hi Fitz. I think this is a very convincing argument from Craig, and that's why I'm out. No!

Because no, because this is how the overs get you. Everything about it makes sense. And that's why they keep building casinos. If it's this new philosophy, literally never going to go in on an over again. So they get a fantasy football podcast sponsorship money. It's all these things, sounds so great. And you know what?

What are they doing casinos? I'm putting, there's no windows anywhere. You don't know what time it is. I'm giving you free drinks. You can't find your way out. Yes. No, I'm out. What I'll give you is,

you know what else I'm out on? The New York Football Giant. Let me tell you guys about another bad guy. The Chargers giving nine and a half. Have you guys seen Mike Lennon play? I think it's 10 now. Give it 20. I don't give a shit.

Mike Lennon play. I have a thought. It is 10. 10? Okay. Fine. Give the Chargers 10 points. Give them 15. Like, you know how there's, you could argue that the most valuable player,

the simplest way is like if the quarterback was taken off the board, how much does the line move? And that's probably the most valuable player. Salas talked about that. Like, Rogers is probably the MVP this season because the line moves the most if he plays. Is there an LVP, the least valuable player based on how much the line moves if they play? Like, if Jake Fromm has to start this game for the Giants on a week notice, would the line go to 18? That's a good point.

Who skews the line the widest because they're so bad? Yeah. Yeah, like how I remember I was like, oh, Mason Rudolph should actually improve the Steelers line? Yes, he should. It's like that. Anyway, I think Jake, I don't think Jake Fromm's going to. to start this game for the Giants. I think that it's probably going to be Mike Lennon, but regardless, that's concussed

Mike Lennon, who hasn't practiced. We'll see if he actually does return to practice. We're recording his Thursday, but like, the Giants are not in the Chargers class of teams. I know the Chargers are doing with their own issues, but I actually think they're going to net be getting more players back this week than they've actually lost. Your beloved Mike Williams is probably going to miss this game, Craig.

Maybe not, though. Now, there's news that he might... It's conflicting information. I think Net, though, they're actually going to get more players back than they will actually lose. And, dude, I I just think the Giants are going to be completely outclassed by this Chargers team. And it will be embarrassing. All the Giants' tinge will be pissed that they didn't take Ray Sean Slater in the draft.

And I'm not looking forward to it. And if you don't want to lay 10 points, I also would throw out a teaser of like maybe I'm crazy. Chargers giving three and a half and throw in anybody. Any other thing you want. I'm a sadistic person. So you can be Texans plus 14 and a half because I just kind of don't think the Seawks are capable of beating a team by two touchdowns. You literally read my mind I don't think there's been a sexier teaser option

than this Chargers Giants game The entire year This is the most teasable game I've ever seen But at that point I'm like just take the goddamn line Somebody needs to lock my checking account Because I honestly Freezes assets

Exactly what you just said Like grab I'm just also grab the Chargers money line And put it with anything else Like I'm doing the Chargers money line With Cowboys minus 4 slamming that together Just use it as a little A little sprinkle on your Sunday

on any bet you make tossed into a Chargers T's or the Chargers money line. For all those reasons, I'm in. I have never, like, been one of those people that would put, like, a substantial amount of money on a money line that's, like, minus 400, like, for 25% return. It's never really appealed to me. I am thinking about it for Chargers minus nine and a half. Sorry, the Chargers to win this game. It's only minus 400. Like, I, I've never really contemplated until this week with Mike Lennon.

Do you think that means we should put money on the Giants? kind of right like Mike Lennon beating Justin Herbert God that seems about right for this year maybe I'll put $10 in the Giants just to hedge it all I'm gonna I'm gonna go in on this high fits with you for one simple reason

and I think this is maybe like the distillation of the Giants problems over the last few years they have a very hard time scoring touchdowns like they can't score touchdowns is one of the main problems for the Giants.

Is that why? Is that because their last and touchdowns over the last two years? Is that what gives you that idea? Yeah, that's one thing. I also saw this from Josh Norris, which blew my freaking mind.

No Giants running back or wide receiver has scored a touchdown in their last five games. Holy. Holy. Zero running backs or receivers. This is why I was down on Sequin.

Like, like, before the season, I know Mike Davis, I was bad. I do want to give myself some props for a couple things. Like having Nadja Harris over Sequin, everyone thought it was nuts.

And it's like, Everyone forgot, like not only was Sequin's injury thing underdone and he didn't play like really well the first couple weeks. This team's fucking awful. It sucks, man. Their left tackle scored a touchdown. They're fucking running backs and receivers. He has more touchdown at five games.

They play, they pick Kenny Gallaudet at $18 million a year. They're allergic to the end zone. They can't get into the fucking end zone. Wait, I think there's another stat. What was, does Jonathan Taylor more touchdowns than the Giants this year, the Giants offense this year? I don't, I have to look this up. Probably.

I think there's a player. What is Taylor at 18, 16? Yeah, Taylor has 18 touchdowns total this year, I think. I don't know if the Giants have 18 touchdowns. Let me look that up. You mean offensively or just like total as a team? I honestly, period. They have 11 touchdowns this year.

Wow. Offensive touchdowns. They have 11 passing touchdowns. They have 19 total. They have one pick six. No, they have a fumbles. Oh, no. I forgot John Ross like recovered like a touchdown for that.

Anyway, yeah, they have 19 touchdowns. touchdowns as a team. Jesus. Dude. It's so bad. Oh, my God. Yeah, so anyways, for that reason, I'm in. Fantastic.

All right, glad we can agree on the Giants being awful. All right. Long shots? Yeah. Boys, it's Favorites Money Line Week. I love all the favorites this week. This is a really, like last week, there was like one game with a spread over four and half points.

There's a million this week, and I like all of them. A lot of them are at home, too. So I'm doing a big moneyline. favorites parlay. I'm doing Packers at home versus the Browns, Broncos at home versus the Lions, charges at home versus the Giants, and the Chiefs at home versus the Raiders, and I'm going to sprinkle in the Seahawks versus the Texans plus 156. I know it doesn't sound like a lot. I just want to interject here to say that at home needs to be retired as like a thing that they'll win. Like home teams are win like 50.1% of games now. No, I know. Basically

a coin toss. No, I know. But I feel like as you get later into the season, like when you're playing at home and weather becomes a factor. Like, you're more comfortable in your arena. Like, the chiefs playing at home versus the Raiders. Like, I actually think that matters. Like, it's going to be freezing cold in Kansas City and like Derek Carr, who's used to playing in a dome out there. Like, I do factor that in a little bit.

But regardless, Packers, Broncos, Chiefs, Chargers, Seahawks, Moneyland Parlay. Love it. What do you think, D.K.? I love it. I'm in. Mine's someone. Wait, can I give it quick? Can I give the exact opposite of what Craig's saying?

because Craig's throwing out like five teams I was going to win to win one let me just throw out if the exact Craig got every single one of these wrong let's see here the payout would be we'd have to put this in so if the Raiders beat the Packers if the Raiders beat the Chiefs if the Bears beat the Packers

the Chargers lose to the Giants which would be absolutely incredible the Broncos beat the Lions or sorry sorry the Lions beat the Broncos and the Texans beat the Seahawks Yikes

the payout would be if you put $10 on that you would get $22,000. That's a mood shot right there. Or you could put $10 on Craig's bet and win $15. Your choice. Sure, okay, yeah. Then do both, honestly. What's more likely? Put $1 on the underdog and then put $10 on that.

I just think who, I mean, who screws you? Is it Seattle, I guess? I honestly don't see a scenario. The lions aren't winning two in a row. the Bears aren't beating Green Bay in Green Bay. Well, the Bears playing Green Bay. I want to throw this out. Roger's saying this week he doesn't regret saying he owns the Bears.

The Bears have to win this game like for any and all pride. They're not going to. I'm just saying like, they're not going to. Like, if you ever believe a cliche of teams playing more emotional, like, that's crazy. Like if a guy screams at your fans,

I fucking own you and then says, yeah, I don't feel bad about saying that. And then comes out and beats your ass again, all of you have to retire. Aren't the, Bear's already there. I mean, it's going to happen.

Basically, but I think the economy of Chicago is going to shut down at this point. It's such a cliche to be like they take it personally and stuff, but like I do think that they will do trick, like they'll do everything to win this game. This is the season to me. I'm serious for Chicago. All right. Okay. Okay.

Craig, I got a three-leg parlay that's sort of zinging while you're, where you're that. You're taking all the favorites. I got three underdogs I like in this one. Is this moon shot or is this just long shot? This is just a long shot. Okay. Not a moon shot. Well, I don't think it's a moonshot.

Anyway, I like the Ravens over the Browns. The money line on that is plus 125. I like what we talked about before, the Bengals or the 49ers in CINC. That's plus 105. And then the third one is Rams over Cardinals. I understand the Cardinals beat up on the Rams in this last game they played.

But if you look back at the history, so like we've talked about this on the pod, like the NFL or the NFC West is sort of like this circular like they just beat up on each other the Seahawks uh the 49ers the 49ers own seahawks or sorry the 49ers own the rams the rams own it's just a circular thing the rams also by the way have owns yeah the rams have also own generally speaking the cardinals over the last few years in fact this win the cardinals win over the rams was their first in the last nine sorry in the first nine games they played yeah So the Rams had won the last eight

before this one that they won. And I think the Rams are good. Like, I don't think the Rams are crappy. I think they're going to get their mojo back. I think they're going to be fine. I think that last game with the Rams and Cardinals was like a few big plays didn't go the Rams way and then just got away from them.

I think I like all three of these. Can we quickly have a brief aside and talk about, did you guys see the thing I sent you on Instagram about Van Jefferson and Sean McVeigh? That was so good. That was the most horrible interaction. Yeah, tell us. I didn't see it.

Van Jefferson catches like a touchdown on some route that McVey was really happy about. You see McVan the sideline like, yes, way to go, Van. And then Van runs up to him and he grabs and he goes like, hey, come back. Look at me. Look at me. And he goes like, you did a great job. Like I'm really proud of you. Keep it up. Like you're playing so well.

And then Van Jefferson goes and sits down on the bench. And like a minute later, gets back up and goes back to McVan and goes, hey, coach, I just want to let you know, like, that stuff really gives me a lot of confidence. Like the positive words you're saying to me. It makes me feel really good as a player. Like, thank you so much. And I was like, wow. This is just coaching and teaching.

Hell yes. Is that what McVey was like as a podcaster? Like he's just saying, hey, Craig, Craig, look at me. Look at me, Craig, look at me. Look at me. You're doing a really great job producing this. I appreciate the home setup you had. You're working really hard.

Thank you. And you just, like, sat there and, like, we're like, whoa. Can I just say, I've never worked with anybody in the, you know, the professional higher-end space nicer than McVeigh and Shrager. They were both the coolest guys. They let me read the emails and do the mailback stuff with them. Like, I didn't have to do that. I didn't have to do that.

The emails and the voicemails. they were consummate professionals. They were great guys. This reminds me of like this like I guess like the argument between football guy like benching a player if he gets like if he fumbles the ball. Like for instance

obviously James Robinson this last week got benched for like two quarters or something like that because he fumbled. And so like I don't know like I guess honestly like it does matter who the person is like every player is a little different like coaching styles

are should be tailored towards certain like personality so like in Van Jefferson's case like he responds really well to positive affirmation I get that some players you have to like

true tell them they suck and they'll get mad at you and then they'll play really well but you know DK was DK was being polite about the Jaguar so Urban Meyer who has multiple times like not really explain

like they're like hey why'd you sub this guy out at the time he's like I don't know I don't I just delegate that I wasn't pay attention it doesn't do what does he do

what would you say you do here I was high when I said that And they're like, you don't delegate. They're like, well, James Robinson's really banged up. Why did he play, like, eight snaps in the fourth quarter when you're down 30 points when he's really hurt? And he's like, uh, uh, uh, I don't know. And then this week, Robinson gets benched because he fumbled.

And Trevor Lawrence just said, like, Trevor went to the whole thing, right? No, I think he's fumbled a couple of times last few weeks. Oh, he fumbled once in this game. And Trevor Lawrence is like, we have to play James Robinson because, like, he's our best player. And, but he fumbled in the game at Urban Meyer's like, look, you know, we, we, we don't bench you, you bench yourself. You put the ball on the ground, you go to the bench.

That's how it works. Except Carlos Hyde replaced him and fumbled and didn't come out of the game. Or when he came out, he came back over for the next series. So it's like, James Robinson fumbles misses like three series. Carlos Hyde fumbles and is right back out there.

And it was like bizarre. So to your point, there's ranges, perhaps. Yeah. I mean, look, I understand like Bill Belichick generally known as the greatest football coach of all time.

Like he does this. So like, obviously there's something it, but I don't like it personally. Like, I just think it's, you know, I just don't think it's, I don't think it, I think, I think it, I think it, I think it, I think it. I think it. That's like some coach Herman Boone, remember the titan shit. You drop the ball, you run a mile. Dude, I know how many feet are a mile because of that. Like, when I have to, like,

whenever that comes up, how many feet are mile, I hear that 5,280 feet. And I'm like, that's how I learned it. You go run every one of them. You kill me, Pedy. There are certain facts you know, because of movies. You know what I mean? That's my favorite sports movies of all time. Oh, same. Well, because we, there was, when I was growing up, there was this. Remember the Titans?

I've never seen it. Oh my. Are you serious? Jesus Christ. I have like a running bit with my buddy who like is very upset with me that I've never seen it. And so now I just refuse to watch it. And so that's kind of like, why. I'm not going to go out here and be like, you have to watch this movie because there's a lot of cool things I've not seen.

I'll just say this. It was a favorite of mine growing up. And also there was a storm that took out power where I lived for like when I was growing up. for like eight days. And so I, and I had like an iPad and we had one, we had one movie downloaded the iPads, remember the Titans. So my family,

we just watched Remember the Titans for five nights and got us through that story. And it was like an event. It was we all quoting it, like psychos to each other. It also came out of the perfect time for you and I, High Fits. I think, you know, we were like seven years old when it came out.

And so it's just like really was the seminal sports movie. And the soundtrack is still incredible. It's an incredible soundtrack. I'm, oh, ain't no mountain high enough. Just. Oh, it's so good. Like, young Ryan Gosling is in it. Obviously, Denzel's the head coach.

It's just, it's crazy. I know that, I know the line knife or Craig that you did. Like, you're killing me. You're killing me, Pedy. You've seen them. I've seen that on the way. You guys, every time you guys take it over.

I'm like, you're killing me, JK. You're killing me. You know how many times over is what? 40%. All right. You know, waters for washing blood off that uniform and you don't get no blood on that uniform. What is pain? What is weak?

Do the whole money? You going to keep going? I don't know, are we? Okay. God. Oh, she's got me going. All right, let's just do ring or listener league real quick. You can play with us on Fendell on the bad quarterback. Wait, wait, wait.

I got a moonshot. Can I give out a moonshot? Okay, yeah. So I basically, I bet those favorites that I laid out, those five favorites I like, because there's more of those heavy favorites. But I didn't like those. So I grabbed the opposite of that for the heavy favorites I didn't like. So I'm going to do a Bill Simmons underdog parlay

with a lot of these dogs who I think can win. So I'm throwing together Falcons over the Panthers. The Jets. over the Saints. I don't trust Taseham Hill and Mallet Finger. And the Jags over the Titans. So, and I'm sprinkling in a little charger packer, or odd boost because I like their money lines.

But I think Jets, Jags Falcons is my underdog parlay of the week. $10 won you $3.50. Man, if the Jets beat the Saints, rough going in New Orleans. Dude, they're only five and a half point dogs. Yeah. It's kind of weird. It's kind of fishy. No one.

I don't throw up my underdog parlay last week did win. Did it win? The Washington Steelers won. Oh, right, yeah. And you know what, Hyvitz? We also liked... Oh, no, we liked Washington. That's what we were talking about.

I chickened out on parlaying them, but I liked Washington and Pittsburgh individually, but I chiqued out on parlaying them, like, as an official wreck, but I did do it in my own personal life. All right. As I was saying, before Craig so rudely interrupted. Sorry.

It's okay. It was a joke. You actually were just very enthusiastic. All right, Fandall, you can play with us on Fandle, Bad Quarterback League, Ringer.com. Sorry, not Ringer.com. The ringer, though, great website. Fandle.com slash bad Q

be. There's also the Fandle, the Ringer Listener League on Fandle. Check that out. Honestly, do we have the link in the episode description, Craig? Yeah, yeah. Yes, we do. Check it out there. You can play with us. Do you guys have any DFS strategies you're rolling with for this contest

this week? I like T. Higgins in this one. 6,800, assuming he plays, going up against a cornerbackless San Francisco team. And if you look at the numbers over the last six, seven weeks, like he's been outperforming. Jamar Chase. Target rate, targets, well, I don't know, air yards, but he's been, he's definitely

been outproducing him in a lot of, like, key metrics. He's just been bawling right now. Yeah, I like, if you want a really cheap tight end, Dick Jones, maybe. Dick Seals Jones. Dick Seals Jones. A lot of, like, we'll see if these got people play this week. Yeah, true. I like Lockett, obviously, he's one of my bets of the week. I like Diggs a lot to bounce back against Tampa. I've been hearing a lot about Cole Beasley against Tampa Bay this week because Tampa Bay plays zone primarily, I believe, and Beasley just tears up zone coverages. So that's an interesting one. He's $5,900.

That's a good one. I think Tasem Hill is like the obvious pick of quarterback this week. And then also just like the, well, Tony Pollard is also banged up now along with Zique. If Tony Pollard doesn't play or if he does, like Zeke Elliott, he's not himself either. But like, Zeke Elliott's prices drop by like $3,000, basically. Zeke is just a very good value. as is Giovante Williams. Yeah, I'm starting

Giovante Williams against Detroit. Can I say about Zeke? I don't think I've ever seen a player look more physically hurt at running back and play through games than I... He just limps the entire game.

Zeke is literally limping, like as he runs. He's not even like, like, you know, biting down, running, looking fine, and getting up and limping back to the huddle.

Like, he limps on the runs. I can't believe he's playing. I don't know what they're doing, to be honest. Hallard has planter feschia. I think is what I heard. Oh, does he? That's bad. I thought it was an ankle injury. Foot strain, but I guess is that what Plano Fasciatus technically is.

Yeah. Actually kind of is what it is. That tendon under your foot, right? Foot strain. Yeah, all right. Well, that's not good. He tore his left planter fascia. He tore it? Did that just come out? On the 58, yeah, like this afternoon it came out. Oh, shit. He's going to be game time decision on Sunday against Washington.

So that seems risky. Dude, a torn planter fascia? that's... It can't feel good. So, Pollard says, they say, once you tear it, it actually heals better

and you don't feel it as much. I'm waiting until, I'm waiting until I get to that point, which means I think he can still feel it. Yeah. He's waiting for his planter fascia to tear, so it can heal it. My instinct on this one is don't play Pollard.

Obviously, wait and see, wait and see a little bit what they say, but that doesn't sound good. That's good advice, T.K., all right. Well, I guess I'll be playing limpy Zeke Elliott. God. Okay. Thank you, D.K. Thank you, Craig. Thank you, Remember the Titans. Just incredible.

You're killing me. Shout out, Remember the Titans. Shout out, Bertier. Shout out Julius. Strong side. Left side. Thank you, Lord. Lord. Oh, God. Shoot. Let me think. No, go. Hurry up. Thank you.

Meriv. Credence Clearwater Revival. Oh, Remember the Titans. Your favorite. Are they in that movie? Yes. Wow. Nailed it. was sound like that was the case. Unreal. The movie soundtrack is like ridiculous.

It is so good. It's like Marvin Gay, Cat Stevens, the Hollies, Norman Greenbaum. You can't watch that movie and sit still. Is it set in the 70s? Oh, yes. Virginia in the 70s, I believe. The 50th anniversary of the team is this year.

It's 50 years ago to like this. Yeah, yeah, 1970. They won the championship like 50 years ago to like last week. Guys, I got to be honest, I don't remember the Titans. Get it? All right.

We're done. We're done. We're done. Do this.