The Ringer NFL Show - 'Shark Tank' Prop Bets - Week 3

Episode Date: September 24, 2021

We pitch one another on our favorite prop bets for the weekend’s games in the style of 'Shark Tank.' Later, we offer up our favorite long-shot bets of the week and give our Bad QB League picks for Week 3. Prop Bets (3:23) Long-Shot Bets (34:24) Bad QB League (40:06) Sign up and compete against us in the Bad QB League on FanDuel here.  Email us at [e-mail]. Hosts: Danny Heifetz, Danny Kelly, and Craig Horlbeck Producer: Craig Horlbeck Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What's up, everybody. I'm JJ J.J. John T. Stramski. And I'm Jason Gough, and if you haven't heard, the ringer has gone local. I'm bringing the fire. I'm bringing the rain from the Big Apple with my show, New York, New York. And I'm reping Shy Town with my new show The Full Go on All Things Chicago. We've got episodes three nights a week with all the reaction to the local teams and guests. Plus bonus episodes around all the big games and storylines.

So whether you're uptown, downtown, downtown, in the burbs, or a transplant. Make sure you follow New York, New York, and the full go on Spotify or wherever you get your podcast. Welcome to the Ringer Fantasy Football Show. My name is Danny Hifitz. I am joined by Danny Kelly and Craig Coralbeck and I am sick. It is not COVID, but I am not feeling well. I sound awful. I am in a terrible room.

There are a lot of noises around me. So this pod, if I sound bad, I'm sorry. Just deal with it. With that said, we're going to do prop bets. Craig is glaring at me because he's going to have to edit this and I sound awful. Yeah, if this pod sounds normal and great, that's incredible. Yeah, well done, Craig. Okay, we're going to do prop bets.

We're going through the bets we like for this weekend. Hopefully that gives you some insights in how we're feeling about certain players for this weekend. You can use it for StartSit. Obviously, you can also use it to place actual prop bets with that said. We're obviously going to do it. Shark Tank style. Okay, also, can we address something to the listeners? We've got a lot of tweets.

We were like, oh, wouldn't it be funny if we called it Sharp Tank, Sharp with a P? We're like, we're not going to do that because Warren Sharp now works with us here at the ringer. and that everybody was like, dude, cousin Sal's pod, they do a Sharp Tank bit at the end of some of their shows. How did you not know that? Listen, we don't know everything. Wait, guys, I was saying very important. I was saying very important to say it.

People don't own puns. Punts are puns. Everybody thinks of puns, okay? Sal's not the first guy to probably think of Sharp Tank. He's not going to be the last. Wait, also, it's something important to say. My dad just called me. Should I put him on speaker?

Oh, boy. What does he have to say? Hey, dad, you're on the podcast right now. you're literally on the pod right now. We're talking about prop bets. What bets do you like this week, Dad? Okay, well, that's tough then. Dad, we're going to have to cut you off the line.

All right, I'll talk to you later. Love you, Dad. All right, bye. All right, well, glad we got that out of the way. Next time, tell your dad to always have prop pets be ready when you call you. At all times. When it's Thursday, be ready for a phone call about profit. My head on a swim.

All right, let's just get into it. Shark Tank, first up. wait can we say that we are nine for 18 so far this year 50% not good not bad just flip a coin or listen to our pod whatever you want to do right whatever you go that's fine no actually we're 10 out of 18 Craig oh sorry yeah yeah is it true that if you flip a coin it's like the head one side's heavier than the other it's technically like 50 point like 3% I think so I think that I think tails is more likely to show up because the head side is heavier so it lands on the bottom well that makes sense okay all right also we're going to be doing

in Bad QB League later. Oh, yeah, sorry. Don't forget. Yeah, sorry. It's the head cold. Okay. All right. You want me to get going?

Please. Sharks. Yes. I'm looking for a $5 investment in my bet that James Winston's going to hit his 228 pound, sorry, under 228 passing yards versus the Patriots. Now, Winston, week one, 20 pass attempts for 148 yards. Week two, 22 pass attempts, 100. 11 yards.

You cannot say the man has been he's been terribly explosive so far this year. They're definitely catering the offense around trying to like make it easy for him, not ask him to do too much. He turned back into yolo ball

James a little bit last week, which makes me worried that they're going to pair it down even more going forward. And they're playing a very good defense, a multiple defense, a defense that likes to create a lot of turnovers in the Patriots.

And so I'm just thinking this is going to be Sean Peyton taking things off of James Winston's plate, maybe even getting Taysom Hill a little bit involved here and there, especially in the red zone. So I'm basically just betting the under because I don't think that they're going to be a very heavy volume team here passing offense this week. And also, the Patriots defense is really good.

They held 202 yards week one. They held Zach Wilson to 210 yards and four picks last week. Matthew Judon and Josh Ushay are number one and number two in pressure rate through two weeks per PFF. Number one and number two overall in the NFL per PFF. Pressure rate, not total pressures. So anyways, yeah, I just think overall this offense, it's struggling. They're still coming back from having multiple offensive coaches on the COVID list last week.

The offense doesn't have very many difference makers, especially at the receiver position. James, volatile, Tase them. I don't know. What do you guys think? I don't know what the, like, when people have bad games, they refer to the next game as a bounce back. What's the opposite of a bounce back where you just continue to play? terribly. That's kind of how I I see this going stay.

It's either a bounce nor back. It's inertia actually. It's Newton's second law. It's an obvious Newton's second law is what it is. I do like this, D.K., I mean, the weird thing about the Saints is that they have a good old line, but James, he's been hit at a league high 30% of his dropbacks. Really?

Like, he's really not playing well. And they have no targets other than Alvin Kamar for him to throw to. We just saw what New England did to Zaki Wilson 228 feels really low it's a little

scary because a couple big passes and he gets there but who am I to bet against Bill Belichick and bet on

James Winston and Taysam Hill might be playing a lot more after James just laid a fat egg in week two so for those reasons Danny Kelly

I'm in yeah wow wow dude 228's really low man I mean we just you guys just

said like Zach Wilson, Zach Wilson, Zach Wilson, Zach Wilson. Because Zach Wilson just had by far the best, the worst quarterbacking of the season, right? Well, he still had 210 yards. So you're telling me that if Zach Wilson, even in the thing where he throws four picks, has 210 yards,

James just needs 18 more yards than what Zach Wilson had. I think I am out. I think it's the attempts rate, though, that is much more telling. James hasn't thrown the ball more than 22 times. also he had five touchdowns in week one and he threw for like 150 yards or something. So they're just like very conservative right now offensively. So that's my thinking.

But the only thing that worries me about this a little bit is that they get behind and then they have to kind of like play from behind and like speed things up. But I don't think that's necessarily going to happen in this game because I think the Patriots are going to be looking at kind of the same style of ball where they're conservative, try to run the ball, trying to control the clock with their rookie quarterback. they have not opened it up much with Mac Jones so far. So I feel like this is going to be a sloggy game. Defensive battle. Sloggy. I've never heard that word before.

It's going to be a slog. It's how you feel right now. High Fitz, you feel slog. Your brain's in a slog right now. New Orleans was losing the entire game last time. James had 11 completions. They were down the whole game. By the way, if you want to parlay something with this,

Alvin Camara, over 35 and a half receiving yards. I think he's going to be their number one receiver in this game. That's not my actual official. take, but I think that's a good bet. Hi, Fitz where are you at? I'm out. I'm out. I'm out. I mean, enjoy. I'm totally out. I'm 22. 28 for James. I will, can I give you guys one? Yeah. Yes, that's what the show is. That's what the shows. Okay. Well, it's more like, it's my, okay. You know what, Craig? Sloggy. I'm feeling sloggy. All right, dude. All right. Okay, all right. Sorry.

Kenny Gautiladay, over three and a half receptions. I like this one. Sometimes we come to you with math. I'm going to coming to you with common sense. Did you see Kenny Ghalady screaming at Daniel Jones, or sorry, we'll call it Jason Garrett on the sideline last week. Did you see him screaming? Yeah. I think he wants the ball more or than to suck less.

Do you know when he was, that game where he was screaming? You know how many catches he got in that game? How many? Three. You know what the over-under is for this week? What is it? Three and a half? Squeaky wheel, baby.

If we had advanced analytical. on like the before-after of like when a receiver screams at their offensive coach and then whether they get the ball more, I'm pretty sure that treadline would just be a hundred percent like diagonal up. Like that's it. The odds that like, not to mention

that they had 10 days to get this right because they played on Thursday. Basically what this means to fail is Kenny Gallaudet is nothing would have to change in the 10 days after he screen publicly. Like it's just so obvious to me. I actually think that he gets two catches on their first two drives. No, that's a bet.

Did you see the thing where someone was pointing out how in that video where Galladay is screaming at Daniel Jones slash Jason Jason Garrett? There's a guy just like a trainer or whatever on the sideline like polishing a helmet or something. Yeah. He's like, he's like, oh my God, just keep polishing. Keep polishing. Keep polishing. It's like mom and dad are arguing and you're just like doing your homework and you're just like, yep, just just move the pencil. Just move the pencil. I like this one though. I'm in because number one, I think Kenny Galladay is better than what we've seen. and I think he's starting to get on the same page with Daniel Jones, coming back from his injury.

All these things are trending in the right direction. They are playing Atlanta, who does not have a great defense, as far as I can tell. And so, yeah, I'm liking all of these. Yeah, 25% targets here last week. A fourth of the targets in that game

went to Kenny Gallaudet. He just didn't catch a lot of passes. So I think that bodes well for the future. Maybe I'm just like a Pollyanna, but I'm just kind of in on all these. So for this bed hyphids, I'm in as well. He's in a good mood. Let's do it.

Craig's like, Craig just throws these, it's like penny stocks. He's just like, just let me get in on all of them. One of them will buy. $5 bet. It's like whatever.

Sharks, like I'll give you, like I'll give you my money. Okay, sharks. Yeah. I'm staying in this game. All right.

To piggyback off of our power hour episode on Wednesday that people should check out talking about the buy low players for week three. Sequin Barkley, over 20 and a half receiving yards. I looked at this too. Last week, week two, he didn't have a great fantasy game, but he pretty much saw every down-back utilization.

He played 84% of the snaps. That's really high. Not a lot of running backs do that. And he ran 72% of the routes in passing place. Again, that is really high utilization for a running back, way higher than it was week one. Maybe the touches weren't there. He only saw 15 touches,

but they're clearly gearing him up for more and more. They're coming off 10 days rest. They're a favorite in this game. I think he's going to see the ball a lot. I don't even mind his 61.5 rushing yards. but I like the 20 and a half receiving even more. In all of the games he's played in 2019 and 2020, which is only 14.

But in those 14 games, he's had over 20 receiving yards in 11 of them. That's 78% of the last two years of games he's played he's had over 20 and a half receiving yards. I like that. I think this is a really good bet. I mean, you know guys, I was down on sick or another in the year,

but like I do think that week three will be the week that he's, I think this is great, Craig. Remember when he had a 41-yard run and then the rest of the game, his like seven or eight carries went for negative yardage. Yeah, that's every Sequin game. This is one of those things. Like, Sequin is like a highlight house of highlight Instagram level player because like he has the one play.

But the Giants fans also know how often he just loses yardage. Having said that, the screen game is so obvious against the felt like Craig, I'm in. I mean, I like this bet too. So yeah, I'll throw my weight around on this one too. We got ourselves a group chat Are I the only one who's even rejected a bet so far Someone someone on Twitter Or in our emails I can't remember said that

When we have all three it's a feeding frenzy Because of the sharks Because of the sharks, yes I like group chat Craig Vito Pat That's fair Okay thank you sharks All right, hit us DK

All right here we go Sharks I'm looking for a $5 bet on Darno Mooney over 43 and a half receiving yards this weekend. Justin Fields, ladies and gentlemen, is starting for the Bears. It's the moment we've all been waiting for.

Andy Dalton, knee injury. I'm not sure exactly what's going on there if he's going to be out long term. Matt Nagy has said that this is only a one-week thing. We'll see how it goes. I think this is Justin Fields' opportunity to seize the job and run with it, keep it. Darno

Mooney, by the way, is one of his favorite targets. This last week, when Fields took over for Dalton. Darnell Mooney had a 36% target share in that offense. Eight targets, six catches, 66 yards. He accounted for roughly half of the team's air yards.

So Justin Fields was looking for him downfield. There was one play where I think he had a deep shot that he probably could have caught, but it just glanced off his fingers. I just think he's going to have an opportunity to create a couple of big plays in this. Justin Fields is a very aggressive downfield thrower. He has a very accurate arm.

you know, so all things to consider, I'm excited about this. Plus, I think Alan Robinson, with across from him, is going to probably attract a little bit more attention from the Brown's defense. So I think Mooney's going to be, like, have that opportunity to just kind of like sneak behind the defense on a play and just get this all on one shot. So 43 and a half, that feels low to me for a guy with a 36% target share last week. How do you feel that, Hyvitz? He's baffled.

He's flabbergasted. my concern is just how do you feel about the breakdown between Alan Robinson and Donna Mooney? I mean, I think that Robinson is clearly still the top guy in this offense but like I said, I think you know, any defense is going to try

and take away your best player or at least the smart thing would be to at least have him in the back of your mind. Alan Robinson is just an awesome player, multiple pro-bowler, all that stuff. He's the number one target. But I think Mooney, like I said, Mooney has the ability to get behind a defense. Also, they use

them all over the field. It's not just deep shots. You know, they're getting him opportunities in the short and intermediate areas too. So he had a huge opportunity last week. I mean, Robinson dropped the 35-yard touchdown, but Mooney also had, I think it was like a third or nine in Moody dropped like what would have been a 20-yard gain, which is not blaming him. I'm saying like he almost had a much bigger week. Like speaking to the air yards, I guess I'm just concerned that the Bears make it their den against Cleveland with his own read with Montgomery. But I'll go in with you. Yeah, all right. I'm in. All right. This is a lot of unknowns for me.

This is his first game. They're going up against a Brown's defense. That's not bad. They kind of, you know, they even made Mahomes struggle for a little bit. I think I'm in wait and see mode with fields. I just want to see what it looks like after one week. I'm not ready to invest my capital just yet. And a guy in his first start with a young player like Mooney.

So for those reasons, I'm out. You know what actually Craig convinced me the other way. I want to go back. I'm out. Can you play that sound in reverse? You already signed the contract. This is bullshit. I'm suing.

I'm suing. Breach of contract. That's a verbal agreement. I waffled in. I'm waffling out. Fine. I'm taking my money and he's feeling sloggy. I'm going to do it anyway.

I'm slogging. I'm just slogging around. All right, here's a slogger for you. I got a slogger. Melvin Gordon, that's a slogger. Melvin Gordon over 10 and a half carries. Interesting. Shout out Adam Levitton for this one,

establish the run. Melvin Gordon over 10 enough carries. To be clear, he's already hit that each of the two weeks. So that's first off. Second, they're playing the Jets. Like, they're probably going to win. They're, what are they, 11 point favorites? I think it's the biggest spread Teddy Bridgewater is there, if I can speak, slogging. I think it's the biggest spread Teddy Bridgewater has ever had in his career. That would make sense. Any 11 point favorite is on track to run like 25 to 30 times. Melvin Gordon's getting an even split. 10 and a half is pretty

conservative. It's not like Javonte Williams that they're not dominating the backfield yet. He's already hit it against who the Broncos played. The Giants and the Jaguars, like the Jets are just as bad as those teams. So I kind of think this is just, this is a mistake more than anything. Ten and a half is really low.

Yeah, another reason I like this is because Melvin Gordon has been dominating the kind of like end zone, red zone rushes. So I mean, so you don't have to get worried about that. When it gets tight and it's a goal to go situation, like Melvin's their guy right now

and you know that could be worth an extra two three carries a game that he gets over Javante Williams so 10 and a half I mean the fact that he's already done it twice and they're playing the Jets this seems like easy money to me I'm in baby let's ride

There we go DK I'm out I'm out What what? You're just doing this to spite me Yeah pretty much That's it That's it

No I mean Is it's the deal With a 50-50 split, it still just worries me that Giovante Williams, for whatever reason, is going to get a handful more carries than you're going to miss this. He's going to have like 9 or 10, and you're going to miss out on this. I mean, in today's NFL, guys getting over 10 and a half carries, 11 carries is like, especially in a 50-50 time split.

It seems like a lot to me. I don't know. It just doesn't seem like that enticing to me. So I'm out. Well. All right. Your loss. Fine.

I'm hypo-knocked up. equity in my company to you. If you don't a believer, it's fine. I wanted to take that money and put it on Giovante Williams. Just oppose him directly. Short me. Sharks, I'm looking for a $5 investment on

the best sleeper of 2021, Mike Williams. Over 66.5 yards. Listen, they're playing the Chiefs. This is easy. They're playing the Kansas City Chiefs. Mike Williams has already had 82 and 91 yards this year. The over-under 66 and a half. It's the highest game total of the week. Through two weeks of the NFL, Mike Williams

is fourth in targets. He's fifth in fantasy points amongst all wide receivers. So all the preseason high about Joe Lombardi being like, oh, I want to get Mike Williams more involved. It's happening. It's happening. The chiefs are allowing a whopping 10 yards per pass attempt. This game totales 55. I mean, 66 yards from Mike Williams. If he doesn't get hurt in the game, I don't see how he doesn't reach this number. That is the worry, though, isn't it? Yeah, I guess it is. I mean, that's screwed me over last week a couple of my props both Tyra Taylor and Jarvis Landry got hurt last week screwed me over so that's the that's always the risk when you haven't over but all that said I really like this one I like Mike Williams's role in this offense you talked about how Joe Lombardi

basically talked it in the offseason about this is going to be the Mike Thomas role the Michael Thomas role that he had in New Orleans where you're getting him in a short and intermediate area and over the middle of the field he's the outlet pass last year was like he's running down the sideline and they're hucking it up. It's like prayer yards for him. And honestly, that's probably, you know, that bodes well for his health because I feel like he used to get hurt on those 60-yard kamikaze chucks down the field and he'd lay out for it. Yeah, he's constantly, like, jumping as high as he can and landing directly in his shoulder. Like that is-speaking of shark take, Mike Williams' style basically looks like a shark breaching to, like,

get seals. Like, you know, shark week, when they come up out of the surface and they come, like, that's Mike Williams going for a ball. Yeah. I mean. And now he's like sitting over the middle in a nice little open zone pocket. He catches a ball. He goes down. It's a little bit more of a long-term safer style of play. It's a bear waiting for a salmon. Like it's just coming in.

Yeah. That's a good visual. How. Anyways, for all those reasons, I'm in. Does that sound you? That was a bear chomping on a fish. I thought I was the one making weird sounds. By the way, I definitely used to watch those live bear cams from.

Oh, I, yeah. Up in Alaska, I forget exactly what river it is. but man, that's a lot of fun. Dude, now the people are working from home, if you have, like, a second or a third monitor, like, sometimes it is so blissful to just throw up, like, a live stream of, like, exactly that.

Like, bears coming out of hybridation and just waiting for salmon. I do this. I'm not even kidding. I do this all the time. It's the best, but Fat Bear Week. You ever watch Fat Bear Week?

Oh, yeah. Oh, my God. Craig is like, what is that? My second monitor has stats. Craig's just grinding stats. The third monitor. It's like it's always, sunny with the cats in the wall, like got two monitors. I was thinking a third. I was

thinking a fourth. Okay, wait, sharks, I'm sitting here. Oh, right, Mike Williams. Is that how we got from here to there? Because Mike Williams, Bayer, chomp? Okay, I see what happened. I'm in on this bet. Bang. Yeah. Let's ride, boys. We got ourselves a group chat. Okay. I was wondering how we got from there to hear. Okay. D.K., speaking of third monitor, third bet. All right, sharks. I really want you to invest in my dream, which is that Matt Stafford is going to go over 300 and point five passing yards this weekend against the Buccaneers. Look, I understand the Buccaneers have a good defense. However,

I think this is going to be a shootout. This game is two very good offenses, two very good quarterbacks, schematic guys just going back and forth at each other. The Bucs have scored 30 plus points in nine straight games. I'm guessing they're going to make it 10 against this Rams

offense or against this Rams team. And the Rams are going to have to go punch for punch with them the whole game, which means I think they're going to be passing a lot. The Buccaneers have a ridiculously awesome run defense. So I don't think that McVeigh, I don't think it's just going to be like, I'm going to slam my head against a wall for 17 times in this game. I think he's just going to be like, hey, we're going to pass hell out of it. We're going to exploit this and we're going to go for it. Stafford in week one at 321 yards, week two, 278. So yeah, I can kind of understand

where this 302 number comes from. But I'm just going the over because I think this is going me one of those games where it's just offense like haymaker, hey maker, hey maker, hey maker. And I think that the Rams offense has it in them. Craig, did brother Sean tell you he was not going to slam his head against the ball 17 times? Brother Sean did tell me that, yeah. Over under 17 head slams. Under, way under. Yeah.

This one is a little tough, but, you know, the shootout potential, I mean, every team that's played the buck so far, you essentially have to abandon the run. It's just too good of a run defense. That's what Dallas did and DAC through for what it was at 400 yards. So this does feel like it's going to be a shootout. I misspoke. The Chief Chargers game is the second highest total of the week. This game is the highest total of the week at 55 and a half on Fandall.

Yeah. So yeah, you know, if everything goes according to plan in terms of how everyone is projecting this game, Brady and Matt Stafford will probably have over 300 passing yards. So I'm certainly not going to go against my boy, Sean. So I'm in. Here's a small amount of context. Matt Ryan. Have you guys seen his arm? Matt Ryan went for 300 last week. Just throwing that out there.

I agree with what Craig said about teams abandoning the run against the bucks because they're so strong on the interior. And then you throw on, we don't know if Darrell Henderson practiced today for the Rams. It's Thursday afternoon. I feel like he's not going to play this weekend with the rib injury. Sony Michelle doesn't really seem to have a role. Like, I agree. I feel like this is just, a pass for a second, third down game for the Ramps.

So let's do it. Stafford over with the rendered. Wow, no dissent in this pod. Is it a group chat? Group chat. This is not like sharks. We're just like... Minnows. I was going to say like whale sharks where you just open your mouth.

Like, we're just kicking all the grill. I was out on Mooney. We were both out on Mooney. Yeah. Yeah, you're right. Don't forget. Don't forget. All right, Hyphitz.

I got Calvin Ridley under 83 of 7 yards. Is this the first under we did today? Yes. That's irresponsible because, geez, generally unders win more than over. It's human, though, you know? I said James Winston under 228. Oh, there you go. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.

Life's too short to bet the under, except, you know, they win more because Vegas knows that no one likes to bet the under. So that's what I'm taking the under, Calvin Ridley. It's 83. Betting against Calvertly sounds stupid. Having said that, the Falcons offense has not looked good so far. Calvardley, not 83 yards yet. Going against James Bradbury, say what you want about the Giants.

James Bradbury is a very good cornerback. The Giants defense did not look great last week, but they've had 10 days to prepare. It's just high. 83 is like Tyreek Hills over undersers are in the 80s. Devante Adams over undersers are in the 80s. DeAndre Hoppk, well, he's hurt this week, so I don't think there's any figures in Hopkins,

but like 83 is like the elite of the elite receivers. And Ridley, like, fantasy, like, maybe is there, but, like, the Falcons have not, Calvinley has not looked as dependable as Devonte or, or like Tyree Kill this season. It's just like, it's just a high number to get to. This offense just isn't there yet for me.

Like, I think that it's just an inflated number and a bad matchup. Like, I'll take the under on that. That's fine. I'm on the fence about this one because, I don't know. I'm like still trying to figure out

if I'm absolutely out on the Falcons offense or not. They've looked pretty bad. And going back to the preseason, I've been like anti-Falcons vibes. Like the vibes have just been terrible around this offense. Matt Ryan's arm might be toast. at this point he might be like

Rothesberger level and you know I think you know the defense for the Giants is actually pretty solid can I put this number in context for what how big 83 is because I think you're thinking about Calvin Ridley yeah can put 83 yards in context

Tyreeks Hill over under this week is 78 I know that is Kelsey's 88 Keenan Allen is 78 you know what I mean like that 83 is like much bigger than it sounds yeah and they only only thing I, so here's the thing that's holding me back. Did you, there was one point last week,

someone pointed this out on Twitter where Calvin Ridley literally like threw up his hands and disgust because Matt Ryan threw the ball over his head. And I'm thinking there might be some squeaky wheel narrative happening this week with Ridley and Matt Ryan. So for that reason, I'm out. That's fair because I pitched the entire Kenny Gallaudy thing on squeaky will, so it's okay.

If you go, if you look at his games without Julio last year, the second half of the season, 90, 108, 128, 123, 130, 52. It was with a different head coach and a different offense. I think the coach is better now. Not yet. I don't know.

And the James Bradbury thing, I was listening to Ian Hardett's on PFF and he was talking about how Bradbury thrives more against bigger corners, or bigger receivers. I think that I was on that pod, Craig. It was not that one.

Oh, is that different? Yeah. Okay. Just flexing on us right now? Wait, did D.K. just wait so much to be like, that was my podcast. No, but it's just funny that you said,

listening to Ian Hartets. I was listening to Ian and only Ian, not Danny, who was on the same pod. It was not the one that you were on. I'm so sorry. Holy shit. What just happened? All right. The three of us, all right. To be clear, what just happened is Craig was referencing a pro football focus pod that DK just went on. And apparently, D.K. was so excited to be like, my episode. I can't believe. You were just ready to pounce right there. It was funny. Anyway, it was funny. It's funny. It's a big hat. It's funny. It's bigger than a normal hat. Turned Ferguson. Funny name.

All right. Ian Hartett's was talking about how James Bradbury has more success against bigger receivers. He can body them. Like Cortland Sutton

in week one who didn't have a great game because he can like get physical with them. But against more shifty route runner guys like last week against Terry McLaren,

Terry McLaren had 11 catches for 107 yards. Ridley definitely falls in the category of the shifty route running savant the route type of guy. Yeah,

he's only like 180 pounds or whatever. whatever, 185. And I do believe that it's coming for Ridley. He's extremely talented. This is the easiest defense they faced probably this year. Or, you know, it's not the bucks. I think I'm staying away.

I'm out. I like, we're fault ignoring the only under. I guess it's just, but like, to be clear. We're like, no, I can't bet an under. Come on. I can't bet an under. I just going to throw this out again. Devonta Adams is four yards more than this.

Tiger Kiel is five yards less. Just want to throw that out. Hi Fitz, come back to us when you have something better. Come on. Okay. All right, fine. Up your game. All right, sharks.

You know what? They're out, but you know, it's okay. Like, you know what? I really believe in my company and I'm really excited to maintain equity. You know, we have outside investors. So, like, I have plenty of opportunities. And I'm just really grateful for the opportunity. I'd love to be on this show.

I'm a huge fan. So really just getting the opportunity to be in front of these two is just, you know, that was all worth it in the end. Yeah. If you were in Shark Tank, they would have been like, all right, loser, get out of here. But it's good enough to make this pot, I guess. Okay, Hyvitz, don't let the fact that D.K. and I just shit on your under-influenced my next bet and how you feel about it. I'm taking Justin Fields over 43 and a half rushing yards.

Sharks, he ran the ball 10 times last week, and he didn't play the full game. He played 65% of the snaps, and he ran the ball 10 times. For context, only six other quarterbacks have 10 or more rushing attempts in both games combined this year. He did it 10 times in one game in 65% of the snaps. He did it for 31 yards.

Even if this game is kind of ugly in the Brown's shit on the bears, I still like him running for over 43.5 yards. He holds onto the ball a lot if this turns into him scrambling because he misses a read or he doesn't like his first read and his next choice is to scramble after that.

I like that a lot. 21% of the Bears rushing a 10th last week were designed for fields. That's like elite numbers. That's like Jalen Hertz numbers. So I love that. 43 and a half on what I think is going to be more than 10 rushes out of fields. Feels like a good bet to me, sharks.

My only concern is that this is such a weirdly bad matchup for Fields to, like obviously, look, Fields runs a 4-4 that's faster than Alan Robinson or David Montgomery. Like, he's, and he's huge. Like, it's an incredible, he's going to be a good runner. My only concern is like,

the Browns have such. absurdly athletic defensive ends, like Miles Garrett and Clowny, to the most athletic dudes. Like the whole cliche about the NFL is that like college quarterbacks who are fast, come in and guess what? The defensive ends are, well, Miles Garrett and Clowny or as athletic as it freaking gets at the position, I'm a little concerned the whole idea of like the read option. You got to, you know, well, if the defensive end cuts in, you take it out, the defense event goes out, you cut it. Doesn't super work against those two dudes specifically clowning Garrett. That's my only fear with the 43. What do you think, D.K.?

Well, why did you bet that? the over, why did you agree with D.K.'s bet about Patrick Mahomes hitting the over on rushing yards against the Browns in week one, which he did. Gotcha. That's different because Mahomes is Patrick Mahomes and threw 50 touchdowns in 2018.

Like, Patrick Mahomes is an incredible pocket passer. Justin Fields making his first career start, the Browns are sitting there and like, well, don't let him beat us with the running. Obviously make Fields pass. You can't just look at Patrick. The Browns would rather Patrick Holmes run

than throw out a Tyrie Killer Kelsey. Fields, they're just sitting there like, don't let them zone read us. That's like the number one priority for the Browns. I think last year, or last week, you sided with D.K. for Tyraud Taylor over on the rushing yards versus the Browns too.

Yes. So this is the third straight week. That's scrambling. That's scrambling and a pass rush. It's different when I would say, like not letting Fields run against you is the primary. emphasis.

But even if it's just scrambles, I mean, 20% design runs. Like, even if you cut that in half and it's 10% of the runs are designed, you don't think he's going to scramble for 30, 40 yards and as a rookie in his first game? What do you think, D. I guess I'm just, I'm not saying it's a bad bet.

I'm just saying, what do you think, D.K., considering the Brown are probably going into this being like, this is our number one thing. It's not like Fields run. What do you think, D.K.? Yeah, I like this bet. I'm on the fence a little bit because sometimes almost to have fault fields

holds the ball in the pocket and tries to let his guys come open and wait for the play to develop and all that. That was like one of the big knocks coming in to the league in the draft and one of the reasons I guess that he fell a little bit in the draft is like that processing speed where he's just kind of sitting in the pocket and waiting for the routes to come open or whatever. Against a defense like this, that could lead to a lot of sacks. That could obviously hurt, you know, the ability for them to string together drives,

all that stuff. However, I do think he's special as a runner. Like, High Fitz, you mentioned it. 4-4. This dude is special as a runner. He's like a mini-cam Newton, but faster. Yeah, I guess it only takes a couple jukes to actually hit this number, doesn't it?

I was just thinking of it as like the Browns are all week being like practicing zone read, whereas they're not doing that with Tyra. But yeah, you're probably. So at the end of the day, one of the reasons I'm aggressively starting fields this week is his rushing floor. And I think he's going to have,

I mean, honestly, like 50 plus, I'd still probably take the over. Because I think he's going to be scrambling. I think they're going to have design runs for him. And even against a good defense like this, I think he's still going to get free. And bottom line, you know, same exact reasoning I had for the last two weeks. I love that we're doing this third straight week against the Brown's defense. They're going to flush him out of pocket.

And he's going to take off and he's going to need to do things on his own. And, you know, I think that ultimately is just going to lead to that rushing floor. So that's why I like him in fantasy. That's why I like this overbet is because that floor, the foundation, is going to be there for him. in this offense and against any defense, really. For those reasons, I am in. Mr. Hyfitz? I mean, I've been talking Justin Fields for five months.

I'm not going to get out now. I'm in. Nice. Yeah. Group chat. On that note about Fields, long shot bets, this shocked me. Justin Fields, any time to score a touchdown is two to one, which I had that written down as well. That's a surprise. rising value. I really like that one.

You know, it's a better one. Well, not a better, but a good one, solid, good one is Justin Fields two touchdowns anytime, and that's 19 to one. Oh, wow, that is really good. That's fun. Spicey. So, if that's your long shot, Justin Fields? Yeah. Justin Fields' first touchdown score is 12 to 1.

There's all kinds of good rushing, like Fields rushing props this week. A lot of goodies. TK., what's your long shot? All right, so my long shot, we've kind of already covered this, but Daniel Jones, anytime touchdown, it's plus 3.30. Hi, Fitz. Motherfucker, that's why I was going to, I was on mute. Motherfucker.

That's why I've been doing it. It was especially funny because you keep that one. You took the video, you turned off your video, but not your audio. Because that's Craig said to leave the audio on. A picture of your seed. Yeah, but I don't know why you have to turn off a video. It's okay if we see you cough. Okay, whatever.

Fine. You can watch it too. We're all human. I'm going to keep that cough, so people are going to hear that one. All right. Back to Daniel Jones. Is this just so people know, like, you can go back and be like, look at all the other thousand costs. I edit it out.

It's like proof. Exactly. You're welcome. All right. So, Daniel Jones, last week, he had nine rushes, 95 yards, and a touchdown. Plus, that included another rushing touchdown. I think that got called back. He had another rushing touchdown in week one.

It really does kind of feel like they're embracing his ability to change the math as a runner. I don't know if that necessarily translates to a Russian touchdown every single game. But I think the opportunity is there. I think he's fast. I think he's sneaky fast, if you will. I know that's a cliche, but he is sneaky fast. We've talked about this. Like, defense is not a cliche.

It's a trope about white players. Defenses don't seem to be. Jesus. Yes. Okay. I'm just saying. It's loud. White guys aren't fast.

They're just sneaky fast. It's just like sneaky means fast even though he's white. That's what sneaky means. I mean, the man is fast, is what I'm saying. saying. And I don't know, it just all, it only takes one play. So I'm going on that one and I like that one. I think they're just not going to be prepared again for it. Plus it's Falcons. Who knows? Hi Fitz, what do you think about that? Yeah, I mean, I've talked about this a lot. I mean, Daniel Jones is,

Daniel Jones, don't Daniel Jones's rushing touchdowns kind of feel like failing upward, like embodied? Yes. Yeah. You know what I mean? Every zone read where it works, you're like, what? It's so bad. They didn't account for it. happening and it works? I don't know. And it's just going to happen every week. The scheme is sound, you guys. The scheme is sound.

He said about Jason Garrett's offense. I'm betting the Falcons this week. Can we clip D.K. saying the scheme is sound? And we just play that in a loop every time Jason Garrett does anything dumb ever again. Yeah. The scheme is sound.

I'm talking about read option. The read option thing is just not like, it's not a gimmick. It's sound. It makes the defender wrong no matter what happens. Okay. My special prop of the week. It's Tom Brady to throw two plus touchdowns and the bucks to win.

You can get that as a package as a special prop on Fandle. It's plus 134. So I'll read that again. Tom Brady to throw two or more touchdowns and the bucks to win plus 134. So the money line on this game, the bucks are minus 126 to win straight up. So that no spread. That just means if you think the bucks are going to win, you have to lay a little cash. Minus 126.

They're the favorite to win the game. But here's my thing. If you just think they're going to win, Tom Brady is going to throw two or more touchdowns if they're going to win. So you're essentially just getting an odds-boasted money line. You're going from minus 126 to plus-134 just to pick the bucks to win.

Tom Brady's thrown two or more passes in a two or more touchdown passes in a game, and every game since week nine last year. This is essentially just a money-line odds boost, and I love it. Right now the bucks are favored by a point and a half. I think it's going to be a close game.

But listen, like, if you think the bucks are going to win, might as well use this bet because you're getting plus odds rather than minus odds. I love this. This is smart. I'm in. Yeah, let's do it.

I really like, so first of all, love this, let's do this, put my, I'm backing behind you on this. I really liked the Tom Brady

and Matt Stafford over under on touchdown passes is two and a half. I like the over on both of those two. But this one is better because it's only two.

Yeah, two plus. That's nice. I mean, I guess it doesn't make a difference because he can't pass a half, can't pass a half a touchdown.

But, you know, still. No, it does make a difference. A huge difference. Oh, it's two plus. two plus. Yeah, two is not a push. Two is successful. Got it. Okay. So, yes, that does make sense. Sorry, I'm catching up. I'm catching up. So, Craig, you want to recap all those bets? Yeah, sure. So the sharks, we bet on James Winston under 228 passing. I'll just do them by person. D.K. likes James under 228 passing. He likes Darnel Mooney over 43 and a half receiving. And he likes Matt Stafford over 302.5 passing. High fits. Like, like, Kenny Galday over three and a half catches. He likes Melvin Gordon over 10 and a half carries and he likes Calvin Ridley under 83 receiving yards. For me, I like Sequin over 20 and a half

receiving yards. Mike Williams over 66 and a half receiving yards. Justin Fields over 43 and a half rushing yards. For our long shots, D.K. likes Daniel Jones anytime touchdown. High fits like Justin Fields anytime touchdown. And I like Tom Brady to throw for two or more touchdowns and the bucks to win. Boom. Bad quarterback's league. Again, plenty of leagues were good quarterbacks. are good. We wanted a league. We're bad quarterbacks. We're good. So points, yards, completions, all negative. Interceptions, fumbles,

positive. Zach Wilson, unbelievable pick for me last week. Doubled my money. A couple weeks in a row. Betting against Zach Wilson's gone well for me. So how it works, there's five tiers, six tiers? Oh my goodness. Six tiers. Six tiers. And you have to pick one quarterback per tier. Tier one is all the bad ones. Tier six

is all the good ones. We're going to go through each tier. We're going to pick which ones we got. Takes advantage of quarterback tiers, if you get it. Tears taking advantage of real tears. That's actually funny. I actually didn't put it together. This is usually how I like to have people respond to my jokes. That's actually funny.

I was surprised you could hear it in my voice. You know, that's actually funny. That was actually funny, D.K., wow. Okay. With that said, that was awkward. All right, tier one. I'm going to go through all the quick. Zach Wilson at Denver, Jacob Eason at Tennessee,

Trevor Lawrence against the Cardinals Jacobi Preset against the Raiders There's some juicy ones in here Yeah Mason Rudolph and or Ben Rothesberger Against the Bengals and then if Easton is to play Wentz against the Titans Let's like leave out the juiciness of like Whether Easton or Wence starts

Who are you picking here, DK? I went with Jacob Easton And so part of the reason I did this And this is probably like hedging too much You really want to just go for the gusto more likely But he might not even play because apparently Brett Hunley is taking starters reps in practice like this week.

We don't know what Wences's situation is. There's talk that they might alternate. I don't know what the hell is going on with this Colts offense. So basically, you know, if you've played this last couple of weeks, a lot of times these guys can really screw you over if they have a good game because it's like negative 30 points.

Well, for the purpose of this, though, let's say that whoever you pick is going to play. Let's say that the guys that aren't playing get eliminated from the field. Well, this is why I think it's brilliant is Jacob Eason's not good. And so if he does play positive points, if he doesn't play zero and I'm happy and I'm moving on. I agree. I have to say any of these Colts players are in a terrible spot.

I don't care if the Titans defense is bad. Once with two sprained ankles, Jacob Eason or Humley? Yeah. That's, yeah, that works for me. What about you, Craig? I'm taking Mason Rudolph, who I don't think is going to play. I think Ben is going to play. And even if Mason Rudolph does, Mason Rudolph does,

Mason Rudolph's terrible. You don't know what happened. They're playing the Bengals. Last time he played the Bengals, he had 85 yards, no touchdowns in a pick. I disagree. I think Mason Rudolph will straight up

make the Steelers' offense better because there are no manned thing right now where it's like Rathusberger wants to do what Rothesburg wants to do. Matt Canada wants to do his offense. I think Rudolph running one offense will actually be better than Rothesberger kind of freestyling.

I'm so out on Mason Rudolph. Have you watched him play quarterback? He's awful. He's not good. I won't give you that. I'm not saying he's good. I'm saying he'll be better. It's a low bar.

Okay. So we're basically taking cults and Craig's basically taking... Who did you have high fits? I agree. I'm Jacob Beeson. Oh, tier two.

All right. Justin Fields against the Bears, James Winston against the Patriots. Wow, I just said that out loud. That's crazy. Taylor Heineke against the pills. Mack Jones against the Saints. Jared Goff against the Ravens.

I'm just going to say James against Bill Belichick. That was easy. Yeah, same. We don't have to spend a lot of time on this one. No discussion needed there. Tier three. Matt Ryan against the Giants, Joe Burrow against the Steelers, Baker against the Bears, Jimmy G against the Packers, Danny Dimes against the Falcons.

This screams Burrow. I'm going Burrow because that offensive line versus defensive line matchup seems really, really not great for the Bengals. Completely agree. All right, unanimous. We got a group chat. All right, Tier 4. Tanna Hill against the Titans, Matt Staff against the Bucks, Derek Carr against the

Dolphins, Teddy Bridgewater against the Jets, and Kirk Cousins, against the Seahawks. This is tough. This is a tough tier. I went with Derek Carr, and I think I'm just kind of trying to go against the grain because Carr is like two really strong games. He's real hot right now.

That Derek Carr is so hot right now. I mean, he's just playing out of his mind. Derrick Carr, so hot right now. Dolphins just got annihilated. So I'm like just going against the grain completely here, hoping that things work out. The Dolphins defense is better than they looked last week against the Buffalo Bills.

And I think Derek Carr, Bless his heart. Bless, like, he's done great this year. But I think regression could be coming. You just did a bless your heart on the guy who leads the NFL in passing yards? Yeah, yeah. Are you saved those for Jacob Eason?

This is a, I'm just going for the gusto on like the opposite here. I'm playing, you know. It's like week one when Rogers was like the top score. You're just like, I'm, I'm zagging. Exactly. I'm also going to zagging here. I'm going to take Matt Stafford because they're playing the best defense in the league. it's not like Stafford is exactly risk averse.

Like the guy likes to sling it and he doesn't run. And you need turnovers in order to earn points in this league. And somebody like Teddy Bridgewater gets the Jets, he may not be as good as Matt Staffer. He may be a worse quarterback than Matt Stafford and better in theory. But the guy doesn't make a lot of mistakes. He can scramble it a little bit. Like I don't think Stafford's going to run.

I think Stafford could throw two picks and have, you know, 250 yards in one touchdown if it doesn't go well, which would net you some positive points. So I'm going to go with Stafford. This would hurt my over, but yes. Did you think about Kirk Cousins against the Seahawks here? I did not. I did not.

Okay, well, in that case, I'm just going to... I'm not very trustworthy of my favorite team. You're going to go on Tanna Hill? I'm going to Hale. I get what you're saying, but like, I don't know. Tanna Hill just hasn't looked good. Going Ryan. Yeah.

All right. Tier five. Herbert against the Chiefs. My dad just texted me saying, um, he's sorry he didn't do his homework for this pod. That's okay. We'll tell me to be prepared of props. Okay.

Say apology, not accepted. God damn it, dad. All right, tier five, Herbert against the Chiefs, Rogers against the Niners, Josh Allen against Washington, Brady against the Rams. Another tough tier. Another tough tier. What did you do, Craig? Aaron Rogers.

I like it. I'm going Herbert against the Chiefs. I'm going to Herbert. Herbert? Yeah. Why did you Herbert? You know, there's a lot of reasons, but I just think you guys went contrary to too early. I think you got a contrary with the quarterback first.

It's probably true, yeah. Also, like, he's made some rookie mistakes. He's, like, feeling out what's actually doable. Yeah, I mean, this is impossible. I think Josh Allen's going to have a big week. He is running upside is huge. Brady, I'm done, betting against. Yep.

I don't know. The Niners have a good defense. I just, I don't know. It's really hard. I'm just picking Rogers just because I think he might have a normal game. I went with Josh Allen just because he's so volatile. He's like one of the most volatile quarterbacks like just

I know that last year Last year he was so Last year he was so efficient And so like almost mistake free However this year it's just It's been a little rougher He hasn't looked quite as sharp I think that their offense overall

It's going to be fine But this Washington defense is pretty solid Especially our front four So that's kind of why I went with Allen But yeah you're right He does run a lot so that that could hurt my chances But I feel like I've come into this Every week with logic

And it hasn't worked for me So this week I'm going illogical. Okay. Logic. Overrated, according to Danny Kelly. All right. Tier 6. Lamar Jackson against the Lions.

Kyler against the Jags. Mahomes against the Chargers. Russ against the Vikings. What do you guys think? I'm going with Lamar. Same. He's got a hip injury. I don't know.

I mean, I'm certainly not going with Kylie Mary. He's been the number one quarterback in fantasy each of the first two weeks and they're playing the shitty Jags. Mahomes is another tough bet, regardless of who he plays. not had a bad week yet. And Russ, I mean, hasn't had a turnover. He has, you know, what is it, seven touchdowns, eight touchdowns in his first two weeks. They're playing Minnesota, who's been getting shredded. I'm taking Lamar because, you know, maybe they run in a couple plays without him and they get up big and they just kind of coast and his hip hurts and they pull him

in the fourth. I mean, I echo everything you just said. I want to Lamar. Also, can we talk about how he hurt himself doing a back, a front flip into the end zone? Can we stop doing flips into the end zone? everybody please. That should be a taunting flag if the NFL really wants to step it up a notch. This is like, I've always felt like a Jewish mother

when I'm like, don't flip, you could hurt yourself, Lamar. But like, he did, didn't he? Your mother was right. But he did. But he did.

Yeah. Do you think him and Harbaugh have a conversation about that or no? Yeah, he's probably like, hey, man, don't do that. Harbaugh was like, don't flip, Lamar.

You could hurt yourself. You could have. Tell yourself. Oh, my God. Your skin and bones. Okay. Enough of that. All right.

I think that's all we got. Get better. I hope you feel better, man. Don't tell me what to do. No, thank you, guys. I appreciate you. Okay. Thank you, D.K.

Thank you, Craig. Thank you, everyone who slogged through that with my slogginess. Thank you, Lord. Thank you, Craig, for editing all that. Thank you, Charlie Crockett. D.K. Just fucking allergic to mention. somebody current.

What? No, this guy is current. Is he? Yeah. What the fuck is... D.K. is a father. Don't be like... I found him.

What's he going to do? Shouted Olivia Rodriguez. He's a father of a child. Yeah. What is... I don't listen to that. Yo. You know, I just typed him in on Google.

Get this. He is a distant relative of Davy Crockett. Shut up. Do you know I almost said that as a joke? And I was like, don't be an idiot. That's amazing. He is.

I found him on the... So, Spotify has this thing called Discover Weekly. It's dope. And I'm not just saying that because this is a Spotify podcast. It's really good. I've been listening to that for years now. It's like basically the algorithm of like all the things you listen to. And then it like gives you this example of 20 songs that you should listen to. Anyway, I found it on there and it's good. Check it out.

All right. Craig was debating. I could see Craig debating whether he should tell D.K. that everyone already knows about it or no. I was like, I'm going to let him have this. Not everybody doesn't know about it. You're right. Come on. Sorry, D.K.

I appreciate your answer. Goodbye, everyone.