The Ringer NFL Show - 'Shark Tank' Prop Bets - Week 5

Episode Date: October 8, 2021

We run through the top injuries from the week and how they will affect your lineups before pitching one another on our favorite prop bets for the weekend’s games in the style of 'Shark Tank.' Later, we offer up our favorite long-shot bets of the week and give our Bad QB League picks for Week 5. Injuries (1:26) Prop Bets (5:43) Long-Shot Bets (50:00) Bad QB League (55:52) Sign up and compete against us in the Bad QB League on FanDuel here.  Email us at [e-mail]. Hosts: Danny Heifetz, Danny Kelly, and Craig Horlbeck Producer: Craig Horlbeck Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, it's Danny Hyfitz. Before we start the show today, I want to let you know, there's a new Spotify feature. On the show page, there's a bell. You can hit the bell, and you're going to get automatically notified as soon as our new episodes are out there.

So you can find out right away. You hit the bell, and then you'll automatically start following the show. So that'll be more helpful. And then also, on the home screen of Spotify, there's another bell. There's a lot of bells now. You can hit the bell on the home page,

and then all the podcasts that you follow are in a new, nice, like, chronological feed. so it's easier to use. So there's a bell on the homepage. You can hit that, see all your pods. And you can hit the bell on our show page, right where it says, ringer fantasy football,

hit the bell and you can follow us. All right, let's get to the show. Welcome to the ringer fantasy football show. My name is Danny Hypertz. I am joined by Danny Kelly and Craig Horlebeck. It is Friday. We're doing prop bets.

We're doing Shark Tank. Yeah, I was going to say more. But like that's, I were doing the bad quarterback league. And it was getting something, which you can do on Fandul. You can go to Fandul. dot com slash bad QB.

You can go to the Fandul app. You go into NFL game styles. We're there at the bottom. You can play against us. You can beat us if you think you knew more about bad quarterbacks than we do, but we know bad quarterbacks. But first, we're going to get to news before we do all that.

Real quick, just Calvin Ridley is not traveling to London for personal reasons. So he's out. And then Russell Gage is out. So Kyle Pitts blowup game. Is that what's happening here? You know it should be. That's what we keep hearing.

It's about time. He's only, I think he, is his 21 birthday to this week? Did he just turn 21, Kyle Pitts? Like, today? I don't know his birthday off the top of my head. It was yesterday. We missed it. Oh, my God.

He has my mom's birthday. You and your mom are born the same, sorry, Kyle Pitts and your mom the same birthday. Yeah, October 6. Happy birthday mom and Kyle. He was born in the year 2000. This is just bizarre. No. The first NFL player who was born.

like after 9-11 is going to be the one that I'm like, oh, I'm from like a different era of like the world. Yeah, that's not good. I'm sure there already is one, right? No, I think Carl Pitts is the youngest NFL player, right? Ready? Is he? Well, he's got to be right around there.

Yeah. I think next year we're going to get the post, uh, the 2002, the 2002 kids. Ugh, I don't, I'm not excited about that. Anyway, Washington tight-end Logan Thomas is on injured reserve. I think you can drop Logan Thomas if you have him. I don't think like he's minimum of three weeks, probably four.

With the buy, it might be five. I don't think Logan Thomas is worth holding on two for five weeks unless you have an IR spot, put him there. But if you don't, I actually, do you guys have any problems cutting Logan Thomas? I mean, I don't know, because there's just no good tight ends. So I might hold on to him. But I mean, again, like, it just depends on your team. Pick up Ricky Seals Jones as a potential fill-in.

No, I don't think Ricky Seals Jones is the guy. I feel like, you think Ricky Seals Jones just comes in and has his role? Blow-up spot now. High-Fix just hates Ricky Seals Jones. Highfitts just hates Ricky-Sales Jones because of that. I've never felt so confident in Ricky Seals Jones in my life because of Hife, it's just pissing all over the idea. He caught that corner touchdown and just buried your dreams. Wow, you guys are coming out from my throat today.

Jeez. It's Shark Tank. It's not Minotank. What's up? Well, if you're going to do Shark Tank, Ricky Seals Jones, I think is a terrible pick. Like, it's not wanting back. You can't just step in and, like, play. It's like, Curtis Samel's way more interesting to me.

I wouldn't, like... I wouldn't drop Logan Thomas. I wouldn't either. I kind of think, I think if you, like, need... Like, unless you, look, if you're four and O and cruising and whatever, like, sure, keep him. But, like, I think if you're two and two and you need to, like, win, like, I think the next five weeks are more important than Logan Thomas's theoretical contributions in week. And we're talking about, like, November. We're talking about, like, week 10.

He might come back in week 10. I know, but, like, tight ends are just so important. Like, is it really worth keeping Nelson Agilor on your team? No. Just keep Logan Tom. Like, do you need to add Nelson Agilor and drop Logan Thomas? Probably not. I don't, well, not Nelson Agilor, but like, there's, like, many players that might be useful to you.

saying if there's a player on waivers that you want, I say you can cut Logan Thomas and I wouldn't really think twice. Hyfitz really wants you to cut Logan Thomas and Elijah. Fire him because he got hurt. It's an indictment of his personal character. If you cut Logan Thomas screenshot it, send it to Hyphins directly because he really wants to see him. I just, I just want him fired. He's adamant. Just fucking cut him already. Yeah, all right.

AJ Brown is practicing for the Titans. Julio is not. Although I don't know if that means he will play or not because Julio isn't really going to practice, even if he's going to practice. even if he's going to play. So, congrats on having Julio on your team and this will be your life forever.

How many other players are there that are more frustrating than Julio to have on your team like the last three years? He's really tough. I would have said Michael Williams. I mean, Marquis Brown? Mr. Mike Williams.

Getting up there? No, but what about the injury with injuries? Because Julio's hurt every single week but plays usually 75% of the time? Will Fuller. God, is Julio in the Fuller zone now? Jesus, that's bad.

That's tough. Okay. We should make a little group called Fuller House, like Fuller House, and it's all the players. Like the Heisman House, but it's just the will,

the guys of the injury for it. It's the most annoying injury players. That's incredible. Speaking of which, Joe Mixon might play on Sunday, but if he does not, Simagia Piran and Chris Evans will split time,

according to all head coach, Zach Taylor. So a little air to the Simaji. That's the last thing you want to hear. Unless you're desperate, I don't think you're starting P. I agree. Mm-hmm.

Tough to hear. All right, one is we want to get to the shark tank let's do it absolutely dk lee so no no no we got can we we hyphen you have to start you're absolutely red hot you got to go first you get every prop it right you need to get it out there okay well all right let's go lead it off i'm i'm 11 for 12 i'll too too too uh sharks yo yeah come to you today uh i have been 11 for 12 but i'm not here to talk about the sharks today I'm here to talk about the dolphins, which actually kicked the shit out of sharks.

If you know anything about the ocean, you know what's up. Dolphins beat sharks every time. Jalen Waddle over four and a half catches this week. Tampa Bay defense. So the dolphins are playing the bucks this week. Let's talk about the bucks defense for a second. Nobody runs on the bucks.

Nobody. It's like you got Vita Vaya and they're Dama Kung Su. No one can get yardage. And then the bucks take the lead and then you have to abandon the run anyway. So teams are throwing against the Buccaneers more than any team in football. I will say that again.

teams throw against Tampa Bay more than any team in football and then subsequently receivers have more fantasy points against the buck's defense than any team in football. So good matchup and then on top of that you get the injuries. You watch Sunday football. Everyone on the Buccaneer's secondary is hurt. The Jamel Dean has this knee injury. Carlton Davis is out.

Sean Murphy Bunting is out. Antoine Winfield Jr. has a concussion. That's their top three cornerbacks and their best safety. Richard Sherman played all every snap in this game except two, all but two steps. Richard Sherman was not on the Buccaneers a week ago. That is what the state is the second year. It was like three days later that he started for that team.

That's bizarre. The point being, don't be afraid of the Bucs defense as a matchup anymore. It's actually like embrace it. It's actually something to exploit. The Bucks are a good matchup for receivers. In every way, yeah. In every way, the Buccaneers are funnel pass defense, right? So not only do they have an amazingly good run defense that forces other teams

basically give up on the idea of running, but they're also jumping out to early leads, most likely. Yep. Which means the opponent is going to have to pass to keep pace, blah, blah, blah. It just like all goes together, snowballs on opponents. I'm just looking at the stats right now. So the Buccaneers have given up 84 catches to receivers through four games, which is the most in the NFL.

They've given up 974 yards to opposing receivers, which is the most in the NFL. and they've given up eight touchdowns, which is tied for the most in the NFL. So yeah, I mean, I love this. I think this is a really good one. The one that I was also looking at was Mike Gisicki over 41.5 yards and or, let's see here,

where's this, receptions? Over three and a half receptions. That looks like a really good value too. My buddy sent me this one. Thanks, Evan. I like this one a lot. It's not going to be my official one, but I think Gisicchi over three and a half

is also a great one. I like all the dolphins props. So I was actually between two this whole time, which is, so Jalen Waddle and Devante Parker basically have the same lines. It's over four and a half catches, over 50 yards. I thought a lot about the Devante Parker 50 yards one. I think the dolphins are going to make a point to get Devante Parker the ball. We're recording this on Thursday.

He's a little shoulder thing. It's probably nothing, but I kind of just didn't want to plug it. And then he doesn't practice on Friday or something. So I'm going with Waddle over four and a half catches. They're going to have to get the ball out fast. I think this is like a lot closer to the 13th, game that Jill and Waddle had. Again, Dolphins only have five receivers on the team.

I guess six you count because Sicky, but it's like, Will Fuller's hurt. He's on IR. They just traded away Jakeem Grant. I think Waddle gets the ball a lot. But having said that, I almost equally like Devante Parker over 50 yards or Devonte Parker over four and a half catches too. They're just going to have to throw it on. I like the Waddle one more just because I think they're going to get him

involved on like screens and little quick stuff like, you know, trying to get the ball out of the quarterback's hands. I think that's exactly what they're going to do. So he, in my opinion, has a greater odds of just hitting this in terms of the catches thing. I think that's a pretty solid bet. So I'm in on this one. Yeah, I like it too. I was also looking at Devante Parker over on yards.

He had like 77 last week and Will Fuller's obviously out. I guess the fear here is just that it's Jacoby Brissette. It just doesn't work out at all. Sometimes you think betting on the shitty team will work out because of garbage time. But oftentimes that doesn't really work and the team just gets absolutely. just a bunch of three and outs. Yeah.

Yeah. But four and a half, you know, what is Waddled on that like every game that he's played, I think, or no,

he had three last week, but before that, he said three, 12, six, and four. Yeah, I think I'll go in on it. I think I will.

You sounded like you were just chomping at the bit to get it on this, Craig. Should I have done Devante Parker? Would that have gotten you going?

How do you guys feel about this? Do you guys like betting catches or yards more? It depends on the game. But like, general, you know, like, do you feel like it's more likely that the guy's consistent yards hit or that his consistent catches hit? So my thinking with this was that Waddle will have to almost replace the run game for the dolphins in this in this game. That's the quick passing and that the Bucks no

longer have the cornerback personnel to just stop them from doing that. Because Sherman's really more of an off quarter at this point in his career, I believe. I don't really though if he has the recovery speed to do as much press. Like, I don't, like, I don't think the Dull the Bucks can really stop them from just doing these short quick passes to Waddle. So that's what was the tiebreaker for me, but I'm also really confident in the Parker Yards one. I mean, if Waddle gets matched up with Sherman,

I'm guessing the Buccaneers will probably try and avoid that because this is like a massive, massive mismatch. Even when Sherman was in his prime, like all pro future Hall of Fame level, blah, blah, blah, with the Seahawks. Like, it was never that great when he got matched up against a really shifty fast guy like Waddle. because Sherman uses his length and his strength and all that stuff.

He's just, he's not as fast as a lot of these guys. So, I mean, now especially, I think this is a massive mismatch potential if he does get lined up against Sherman. D.K., you know, if we want to play the odds, we should fade all three of Hyphids his bets, because odds are he will regress back to the mean, right? We should just pick against them every single time. How's that going for you? We're trying to, I think we should approach this. Which is the Derek Henry of this pot.

We're trying to approach this as sort of a team. effort because we want to look good collectively, right? High Fitz says holding he's the glue guy right now. I feel equally about Waddle and Devante Parker. I would actually, if you guys want, I would have switched to Parker. I think Waddle's stronger,

but I actually am totally down to parlay both of these in the same game parlay if you're able to do that. Let's do that because I have another one that we could do two different guys on the same team, and this might be a good little segue. Craig, are you in on the both guys, Devante Parker, and Waddle?

we're going to parlay them? Can we do the same game parley? I believe we can. I think we have the technology. I mean, we've been to the mood. I'm out on the parlay. I don't want the parlay, but I'll do Jalen Waddle four and a half.

Okay. All right. Dika, I like to do four and a half for Waddle, 50 yards for Parker. Overs. All right. Dancing with fire. All right. Deca, what's your little two-gamer or one team,

two-player one? So I couldn't decide which one I liked more on this. So I'll just give you the one I went with. My official pick. Sharks seeking an investment of $5 on Marvin Jones going over 4.5 catches this week. DJ Chark, by the way, Sharks is out for the year. Broken ankle, unfortunately. And weirdly enough, because I actually, coming into the year, it felt like the,

the Jaguar's had like a really solid, pretty deep group of receivers, but then they ended up, like, cutting all of them. Now, Sharks' replacement is, I guess, like, Tavon. Austin? Is Jamal Agnew a guy on this team? Or did I make up that name? I feel like I wrote it down and now I'm saying, now I'm thinking like this might not actually be a player on the Jaguars.

You're right. He is. I also hate Tavon Austin so much because the, obviously, I would imagine half the people listening right now were like Taven Austin still in the NFL. Let me tell you something. The reason I hate Tavon Austin is the last touchdown he scored was against the New York Giants. Tavon Austin basically had not. It just is done scoring in the NFL.

And the last, like the last time Tavon Austin was relevant was the Giants did not realize that Tavon Austin would go deep. Couldn't think of it. Sorry, I'm not over it. Okay. Well, that's fair. So anyway, Marvin Jones, targets over the first four games of the year, 9, 11, 8, and then three last week against the Bengals. It was just kind of a weird game. You know, I saw him get rolled up on a little bit, too, a very kind of similar way that Chark did.

So Chark basically got hurt because he was blocking on the outside, and the ball carrier slash tackler both kind of rolled into him on the edge and broke his ankle. I saw it happen to Jones. I haven't really seen anything about an injury, but I saw him get rolled up on. He was kind of like limping around. So that might have had something to do with the fact that he only had three targets and three catches. But his catches over the first four games are also five, six, six, and then three last week. they're playing the Titans who, like the Buccaneers,

are not a very good pass defense. They've given up the second most points to fantasy receivers, eighth most catches to receivers this year, second in most yards to receivers. Not that yards and fantasy points are necessarily indicative in this actual bet, but I do think the catches thing. They've given up eighth most catches to receivers.

Also, I saw this from Jared Evans at PFF. I thought that was pretty interesting. Titans' defense on deep passes of 20-plus yards. the most completions and the most yards and most touchdowns allowed. So they're vulnerable deep. And that's Marvin Jones's game. I think that... Go ahead.

D.K., you know, this is Shark Tank. And I, you know what? We have a high standard here. And I can't help but think that you kind of buried the lead here, which is that you have the words, Jaguars and over in the same sentence, the week that Urban Meyer is getting openly laughed at by his players in practice. practice.

Okay. Did you guys see the video? And this is like, like, you think you should be under? I think, I actually think the Jaguars have a 50% chance

of just quitting on Urban Meyer this week and he's fired on Monday morning. Do you guys not feel this way? When I was looking at these props, I was mad. None of the Titans props are up because we don't know

Fulio Jones or AJ Brown are technically in a play. I just want to bet against the Jaguars in every possible different way I can. I don't really think they're going to parlay every under in Jacksonville. I don't really think the whole, quitting on a coach thing happens in the NFL.

These guys have like careers to think about. Did you see the video this week? Which again, it's one of those like you hear the audio and sometimes you just hear it wrong, but that the Jaguars players in the huddle got together and it was like, three, two, one, grind. Like they were making fun of Urban Meyer. But like, do you think that means they're going to throw less? Like, I don't really get that. I just can't bet on this team this week is what I'm saying.

And for that, I'm not betting on Urban Meyer's team to do anything good this week. I'm not saying D.K. stats are wrong. I'm saying I'm not betting on the Urban Myers football team this week in any way. And for that reason, I'm out. All right. Just to get to my other point, Leveska-Schanal also at four and a half receptions. I think that's another good one, especially because Darryl Beville came out this week and said that with Charkout, Chanel's going to get more opportunities.

He's the type of guy like Waddle who gets a lot of passes around the line of scrimmage. So I think this is an interesting one, too. So I like Marvin Jones and Leviska-Shall, both guys over four. and a half receptions. Yeah, I'm gonna, I'm in. DK., I'm in on this. Thank you, Craig. Thank you.

Marvin Jones has, he played the Titans in week 15 last year. So what is it, like seven games ago? He had like 10 catches, 120 yards. And there's not a lot of options going on in Jacksonville. They're probably going to throw the ball a ton. It's going to be a shitty game, but there could be some points. Yeah, I don't really, but I think that what Hyphitz is kind of preaching, I think,

is the correct narrative. But I'm not sure it's actually going to take place. Like, Trevor Lawrence is the best. quarterback prospect of the last 10 years. He's just like, he's just going to stop playing well. I know you're saying where it's like you can't just turn headlines into predictions of the field, but like you don't just get bad vibes from this team right now? Of course I do.

But like, I still think Lawrence is going to throw the ball 42 times. Well, on that note, actually, my other question for D.Ks, I love Marvin Jones. I said before the season, I thought Marvin Jones would end up the number one receiver in this team, obviously because I knew DJ and Shark would be out. However, I guess my question of DKs, why, why actually Marvin'B. Marvin Jones over Levisca, if the number's the same? Oh, he's playing way more snaps. He's also the de facto number one.

Like, Levisca Chanel's relatively limited in terms of like the routes he's been running. Like it's been, number one, he's been running a lot of routes out of slot. It's been sort of around the line of scrimmage. I think Jones is going to be the de facto go-to guy, if that makes any sense. So if hypothetically I have Leviska and Marvin Jones in my Ringer League, and I think I'm, am I playing you? I don't know. All our names are each other's names. Are you playing Craig Horlebeck's team?

I don't know. Because that's Danny Kelly's team. I changed my name to Craig's name this week. So Craig and I are both in Danny Kelly's team. And I have the, we have the same logo. So I actually don't, I don't even know which one's my team sometimes. You can't jump on my bit. That's my bit.

No, but it's funny because now there's two Danny Kelly's teams. No, that's not as good. Wait, you changed your name to Danny Kelly or to Craig Horlebeck? Dude, it's so complicated. I don't even really didn't do it. There's a horse on the ground and it's absolutely bludgeon to death because what you just did. Okay, so Craig is in. All right, Craig, why don't you give us your props? Craig?

How's those been doing this year? Equally as DK. We're normal people, all right? You're cheating somehow. Okay. Yeah. Sharks. This is my favorite bed of the week. I'm putting it right up top.

I want to get it out to you guys. I want to start positive. I want to feel good. Joe Burrow playing the Green Bay Packers. I like the over on 35 and a half pass. He has not thrown the ball more than 32 times this year. I know, so it's a little alarming. However, I think that's going to change this week.

They've either played bad teams where they got ahead early, or it was very early in the season, and you could clearly tell that they were limiting Joe Burroughs passing attempts to protect his knee. It's now week five. They're playing Green Bay, by far the best offense that they've played this year. Every game they have played this year, the game total line has never been higher than 47.

Right now for Green Bay, it's 51. T. Higgins will be back this week. Joe Mixen is unlikely to play this week. Jair Alexander, Green Bay's best. Cornerback is out. I think this is a week where it kind of all comes together. Burroughs been playing better each week. I think this is going to be a high-scoring game,

and I think they're going to open it up more this week and for the rest of the season for Joe Burrow, 35 and a half passing attempts. I like the over. This is a good one because I think you nailed it with the mixing thing because it feels like Mixin has been, like he's been playing pretty well, but he's been creating a lot on his own.

And I think if you go from, it's a big downgrade to go from mixing to like P. Ryan. And I think P. Ryan would be the guy who's getting like the early down work. And then Chris Evans, who is not an actor, he is a running back, a rookie running back for the Bengals. He is more of like a passing down guy. He's actually sort of a de facto receiver. So yeah, this is a smart one because I think maybe hopefully they won't like just continue to bang their head into a wall and try and run the ball. When they're not having success, I could see that their running game kind of strong. struggling this week. So this one seems smart to me. Plus, game script-wise, it feels like they're

probably going to be playing from behind. I'm in as well. This is smart. Group chat. The passing attempts. I like the passing attempt one. I don't know. Have we done one of these yet this year? I don't think we have. That's a good one. I, it makes sense. I like that. It's good. I'm sold, Craig. All right. Group chat on Joe Borough. Yeah. Okay. Well, oh, wait, no, we were all in a model. Okay, so that's two. Craig, Craig wasn't enthusiastic. I I got Craig's vote, but I didn't get the spirit. He's like, he has equity in the bet. He's like, yeah, I'll get in the company, but he's like, he's not, he doesn't have the passion.

We're leaving him off the group chat. I don't think he's going to text us back in the Jalen Waddle group chat. No, I'm like a shadow investor. Like, you don't really know I'm there. You're not, you're not Carl icon here. There's no activist. You're not an activist. You're not trying to get in the board.

Can I stick in the same game? You mentioned Bengals backers? Yes. Sharks. I come today to talk to you about Aaron Rogers over one and a half touchdowns. I like it already. I have a process. The process thus far has done very well for me.

It's 11 for 12 on the season. Why are you not telling us your process? What, what? Why don't you tell us your process? Don't you want us to succeed? Because I did. It would be our process. What are you a magician? Well, I'll probably go one for my next 12.

So like, you know, but having said that, the process has done me very well this year. I'm 11 for 12. I am going, this bet's like a departure from the process. I had a dream last night that Aaron Rogers bawled out in this game. He's dreaming about Aaron Rogers. I literally, I can't tell you why. It's weird. It's not like I was thinking about it a lot.

But I actually had a dream that Aaron Rogers was going to crush it. And I looked up the over under and I was like, one and a half. I'm like, give me it. The odds are like not that good. Don't care. I'm not coming to you and saying, I think this will probably happen. What I'm saying is I have seen this happen in the future. And now you two can then follow up and then see it with me on Sunday.

This is like conception. All right. Here's my problem here with Raven Simone's bet. It's minus 200. It's a fact, though. It's minus 200. I'm not coming to you and being like, this is a good value.

What I'm telling you is I had a dream that Aaron Rogers had a great game. And then I was like, I have to go find the one and a half to. I can't explain why I don't actually dream about football very much. Justin Herbert's line is also over. I didn't have a dream about Justin Herbert. Correct.

What did I say? It's a departure from the process. The point of this bet is to make people, you know, some significant amount of money where they can buy more than a stick of gum if they win it. And you're going to have to lay like 50 bucks to win anything significant for Aaron Rogers. I mean, it's a fine bet. Yes, I'm in. Sure. And when it's all said and done, I'm just, oh, I'm three for four again this week. But like, this is minus 200. But like, whatever. It's a departure. I'm just, I had a dream. What am I supposed to do? Not go with the dream. I had a dream. I had a dream that my son started speaking to us in complete sentences, like very, very, you know, advanced stuff. He's saying some words right now, but definitely not stringing together sentences. For those reasons, I'm in.

There you go. Can I also tell you guys something there? Obviously, I'm into. I'm in. No, no, you're upset. Be out. You can't criticize it and then be out in. You're in or you're out.

You're clearly out. That's okay. No, no, no. I think it's minus 200. So yes, like I guess, I like the bet, but you didn't even have minus 200 written in, it's a factor in the odds. Or the odds, you think it's... I said it's bad odds.

Like, the third thing I said. Sometimes we're not facting in the fact that it's not just whether you're right or wrong, it's that you make money and you have to assess the risk involved with that. Do you think this bet at minus 200 is a good bet? I'm talking about a fucking dream I have. Obviously, this isn't like based on like actual goddamn logic. All the props we usually have are, like, look, Props, obviously, they take more juice than usual.

I think most of the props we have, the over-unders, are like around 10 or 20. Obviously, this one's not good. It's 200. Like, mine is 200. I'm telling you, I have a fucking dream. All right. I don't have any problem with this. I think it's fine.

No, I don't either. But I'm just saying, if you want to, like, maybe we should go back and check and see who's had the worst odds in all of our best. Oh, this is what this is about. You think the 11 for 12 is because I've been hedging on props that have terrible. Perhaps Hyphitz is just taking odds with the most juice because they're the most likely to I think we just figured out the process, Craig. I'm just saying.

He's taking a lot of minus 180 bets and forgetting to mention that in the pitch to the sharks. Please, wow. Craig just thinks he cracked the code here. Oh, man. We'll see. Go back and look at all of them. Go back.

Wait, can I actually, wait, actually got to tell you guys about my dream. I didn't see the game. My dream was I scrolled. Were they playing the Bengals? Yeah, no, my dream was I scroll from Twitter on my dream. my brain is recalculate like I'm not this has happened like five or six times in the last two years

my my brain my dream recreated a subconscious version of my Twitter timeline did you have more followers has that ever happened to you guys and like I had like people I follow and like it takes the counts that I merge that I must subconsciously associate together and it merges them into like one person I'm impressed that your brain knew and your dream that the Packers are playing the Bengals yeah pretty good Wow, no comments on, okay. Well, I guess I'm just diseased. I just with this line was like three and a half and you were like,

I had a dream, Rogers was going to go nuts. We're like, well, let's do it. Four touchdowns for Rogers. Like, yeah, two. Okay. Sure, obviously I'm in. All right. Well, D.K., since Craig's so salty, why don't you go next?

Actually, no, Craig, you got the fire. Why don't you give us one next, Craig? You're on one. You know how there's adjusted lines? You know how you can like inflate lines and then the odds get worse? You could be like, Derek Henry over 62 rushing yards, like minus 400. I'm going to start doing that. be like, well, I got it right.

Okay. Here's my next pet. I feel like the sharks are against me right now, but I'm going to try and push through it because I've been a little bit... Oh, it's all business. It's okay. Argumentative.

Okay. I like Michael Carter. Yeah, that's right. I'm going Jets. Michael Carter, the rookie running back for the Jets. I'm going over 11 and a half carries. Week 2, 8.11, when they got killed by the Pats. Week 3, he had 9 when they got killed by the Broncos, 26 to 0.

And week four, he had 13. in their close game against the Titans. Last week he played the most snaps he's ever played. It seems that Ty Johnson and Tevin Coleman are getting phased out. They are playing Atlanta, who is a bottom 10 defense pretty much across the board this week. It's going to be in London. London games are always weird. I like over 11.5 carries for Michael Carter.

And I actually think Michael Carter, they have a buy-the-week after this. I think Michael Carter is going to be a good buy-load trade option for the rest of the season. Yeah, I agree with that. I agree with that last part. I think he's definitely over the last three weeks. His usage has gone up and up and up. He's starting to separate himself, I think, as like the clear, clearly the most talented guy in this offense.

It was a big surprise to me and to a lot of people that he went in the fourth round. He was an early fourth rounder, but still, like, he was expected to be a day two pick. He has that kind of talent. I guess the only thing I'm wondering, I do like this one, but like, do you think, so do you think the Jets are, like, their offense is, like, fixed now? Well, I mean, they've played the Broncos. They've played the Patriots. And last week, they finally played like a normal team,

and they looked decent. They're a really good second half. And they're playing Atlanta. It was terrible. So I think there's just going to be, even if they're underperforming, I think they're going to be fine. I think they're going to have a decent normal,

below average office. The Ridley thing, the Ridley being out thing kind of makes me like this one, especially, too, because I think if the jets can get ahead, they'll do that thing where they try and just like control the clock, control the game, run a lot.

Well, we've learned already that when they get to, destroyed, he averages 10 carries the game. And I don't think they're going to get destroyed this week. That's my point. Yeah. It's a good one. 11.5 carries. I'm in. Bang. Whoa.

We're going to know this early. By the way, this is a little bit of a tangent, but be sure to set your lineups on Saturday. Oh, yeah. 6.30 start, a.m. Pacific time. I guess that would be 9.30 Eastern. If you live in the West Coast, you should really handle this on Friday at work. Yeah. Yeah. London game. I barely heard anything.

anything Craig said because I was so mad that he called me out that I kind of just blacked back in in the middle of his point and then I just heard DECA say I agree so I'm just kind of being like he wants me to bet on the Jets and I don't I can't do it so Hyfitz refuses to bet on Urban Myers, Jaguars

or the Jets I guess this is actually probably smart you guys are like what's the secret I'm like this is the process rub me the wrong way we figured out the process actually Jets over don't bet on dog shit teams I think is the idea. He's betting on the dolphins. Betting against the worst passing defense, the bucks.

They're not the worst past defense, but you know what I mean? Yeah, I mean, I bet on Corey Davis. I said over four and a half catches last week. I was so close to picking his yard. This is my thing. I had trouble deciding between yards and catches. I went with catches. Corey Davis had four in the line that's four and a half,

but he had 111 yards. Well, on that, no, why over 11 have carries? What's the rushing total for Michael Carter? Well, see, I'm not confident that, I like 11 and a half. I like carries more for running backs that, like, I think are going to get the snaps because you can't guarantee how the line's going to block,

but you can guarantee that he's going to get the ball. It's going to get a handoff. Yeah. So it's like, I mean, with Michael Corden and the Dolphins, like I feel nothing about how well they're going to actually run against Atlanta, even though their bottom five team. I'm more confident that he's going to get the touches. I don't know what his yards per carry is going to be.

All right. I'm making a rule, Craig. You go yardage on receivers and touches or carries for runs. running backs. Well, isn't it so hard? Because you try and rationalize it and you're like, all right,

well, catch us for a receiver makes sense because it can just be like four little out patterns. That's super easy. But then you're like, well, yards, he only needs one big play

and then he gets it. So it's like kind of hard to decide which one you like more. Anyway, I digress. DKs in, hyphids out, whatever. Hit us DK.

Uh-oh, we have an under alert. Yeah, I kind of, I felt like we were going a lot of overs. I'm going Clyde Edwards, Hillare, under 51.

5. rushing yards. So the bills have given up the fourth fewest rushing yards this year, which actually is probably majority, like, majority based on game script. Like, they've been dominating games like the last three weeks. However, even in week one, they held Najee Harris to 45 yards on 16 rushes is a good rush defense. They are number two in rush defense DVOA thus far.

And more importantly, and more to the point, CEH, it's like a 50-50 rotation. now, basically, with Daryl Williams. Last week, Clyde Edwards-Laird did not play in the two-minute offense. He hasn't been the primary guy in long-down-and-distance and short-down-and-distance situations. Last week, he only played on 52% of the snaps, only got half of the team's rushes. So, I don't know, to me, it's just like a usage thing combined with the fact that they're playing a Bill's team.

That's very good against the run. And also, I think this could be a shootout type game where both teams are looking to pass, both teams are like trying to play, you know, catch up with each other, whether, you know, it's like a back and forth game or whatever. I just think there's a chance is going to be like a mostly pass heavy game. And I don't know, I just, it's hard to trust Edwards-Aler after despite the fact he has had two straight 100-yard games. I mean, yeah, it's hard to trust Clyde. That's... And I'm going with the anti-trud. I'm going on my lack of trust here. under 51 and a half rush yards.

This is really hard, to be honest. I get you intellectually, but I don't feel on my gut that I want it on this. Although just generally, I'll do it. I'm in. I'm in. You guys.

I stumped you. This must not be a great one if I stumped both of you. I appreciate it, hyphids, that you're in. Intellectually, anyway. I'm going to need a little bit more, D.K. What else you got for me? What else you got from me on this game here? I'm trying to have they played the bills before.

How many subscribers do you have? I'm trying to look at what they've done and like big high-scoring games against Baltimore this year. He had 13 rushes, 46 yards. In the Super Bowl last year, he had nine carries, but they were for 64 yards.

This is really tough, guys. So last year, going back to the ASC championship game, the Chiefs won 38 to 24. Now, of course, this is last year, different game, different players, blah, blah, blah. And he had six carries for seven yards. Yeah, but he was, I believe he must have been hurt at that time. And Darrell Williams had, let's see here, he had 13 carries for 52 yards.

I don't know. To me, it's just like the chiefs are always just going to rely on Mahomes in big games like this. They're going to ask him to pass the ball a lot. I don't think that they're going to be trying to establish a run. And if they fall behind in this game at all, I mean, are they going to be running a lot? I just don't see that happening. Yeah, and it does feel like, you know,

when the Chiefs playing these big games, they get all horned up and they just don't want to run the ball. You know, they just feel like, bucket, let's go, let's ride. Josh Allen thrown 50 times? Well, well, well, I mean, I feel like we did leave that one thing here,

which is when the Chiefs played the bills in the regular season last year. Okay. And the Bills just did too high the whole game, and the Chiefs ran for 260 yards. Oh, he had 26 carries. How many yards did they rush for? I believe it was like the second most

in Andy Reid's coaching career. It was 161. Like did they have like 260? But that was like a choice the bills made defensively to like just play too high the entire game. And Patrick Bum said it was like

the only time he'd seen that since he was at Texas Tech. But obviously the bills didn't do that in the UFC championship game so we don't know what they're going to do. I think I got to be out. I'm sorry. No, fuck.

I hate Clyde to be honest. I'm in. I'm in. I hate Clyde. You can be out. You can be out. You can let me go down. go down with the ship here.

I'm out as well. I'm out. I changed my mind. Can we play the sound in reverse? No, we're not doing it. That sounds terrible. But, all right. D.K., unfortunately, I'm out as well.

All right. Is this the first time that we've had no one on board with anything? I'm just going to be leaving with the tail between my legs here. All right. I think I've had you guys reject both of mine before. All right. Well, all right. I guess I'll still make the bet.

Here's another probably a bat. Here's a bad one that I also want to just throw out here. And this goes against kind of what I was just saying, but Zach Moss, over 37 and a half rushing yards, kind of feels like a good bet to me. I just don't want to be rooting for a running back in a Bill's Chiefs game. I agree.

I think there's a, like, there's a logic that like the bills, because I looked at that at first too, because, but in theory, like, oh, well,

the Chiefs give up a lot of rushing yards so the bills can attack them there. And it's like, the bills are looking at this game and are like, I bet the bills pass more than they usually do. Yeah, that's possible. All right,

I'm going to take my, I'm going to take my Edwards, Delear bet and like put money on it begrudgingly even though I don't feel great about it. You guys talked me out of it, but it's too late. Wow. Yes, do you go stick to your guns?

All right. All right. Speaking of sticking to my guns, I have one more bet here, and this is like, this is all terrible timing for me because I don't really do bets that have awful juice, but this is actually another one, so Craig can just stomp on my grave right now, but I don't care.

It's Damien Williams, the Bears running back under three and a half catches. Adam Levitton shout on him again and established the run he has great wrecks every week this one I love again as Craig will happily point out it's bad juice and this is minus 150

what is the juice it's minus 150 it's not good but it's because three and a half catches is a really high number like to put that in context three and a half Alan Robinson or Darnell Mooney are four and a half three and a half just a high number

especially since he's not going to play as much as Dave Montgomery was probably and then also on top of that like Justin Fields is trying to throw to Alan Robinson and Darnell Mooney. He's not trying to throw a Damien Williams. Justin Fields is not a checkdown guy.

Ben Solex says this all the time. Justin Fields running is the checkdown. So I just feel like Damien Williams, three and a half catches that's a very high number. Like realistically, Justin Fields is not a checkdown guy. So yes, Craig, the minus 150s bad juice.

But that's, you're getting the bad juice because three and a half is very unlikely to hit. Yeah, okay. No, I mean, I like it a lot. I do. With Justin Fields, it's like I don't want to depend on him checking down to a running back and having him catch four passes. So for all that, including that heavy, heavy juice, you know what we should start talking about? It's how much pulp does the juice have? There's a lot of pulp in this juice.

There's a lot of pulp. Well, if you don't like pulp that, Craig, then you know what? Maybe we don't want you in here. They don't want you to get in the group. Maybe it'll remove you. No, you know what? I'll slug down that pulp and I'll make this bet with you. I'm in.

Three and a half catches. That's interesting. I think I'm going to be out. I think I'm out. Mostly because I think I'm just too excited to get in all these bets and I need to be out on at least one or else, come on. Can't just join every bet. Well, if you like the bet, you should be in it. That's it.

You just don't like the pre. I mean, you're out on a bet because Urban Meyer got grinded on this week. That's like real. That's about the team. Your bet is about your bets. Like insanely arbitrary. But that's fine. I just think that they're going to be in situations.

Players are laughing at the coaches, that's all. I just think, like, in two-minute situations and long-down-distance stuff, like he's going to get a couple targets. I think he could do it. I think he's going to go over three and a half. You want to go, you want to challenge me? We haven't done that yet.

No one's saying. I'm not getting in on your bet here. No one has done that yet and looked at the bet and be like, not only my out, I actually will bet directly against you, and I think you're going to lose actively. Well, being out essentially is a bet on the other side.

I guess no one's ever just saying that I don't not necessarily yeah I guess it's like I'm nervous I don't want to yeah I don't feel confident okay wow Craig I you know what I didn't expect Craig to look at this one to be like yeah give me all that pulp I'm an objective man I can set aside emotions I can let bygones be bygones who's up here me I can go yeah you're bygone Craig it's DG all right okay we got to talk about Sam Darnold the what is it QB5 on the season so far just freaking Rear comeback guy, whatever you want to caught. Sam Darnold over one and a half past touchdowns this week. What's a Pult? Minus 160. So this is like... That's pulpy. Yeah. Whatever. I don't care. I just think he's not going to keep getting rushing touchdowns at this ridiculous rate.

Like, I think they're going to start scoring some passing touchdowns. I think so Darnold by game, he's had one touchdown, two passing touchdowns, zero, and then two passing touchdowns. And of course, he has five total passings. passing touchdowns and five rushing touchdowns. I don't think that's just going to, I don't think that's going to keep up. Also, there's a couple other things here. I think the Eagles are not a very good pass defense.

They gave five touchdowns up to Mahomes last week. I know that I'm not comparing Donald to Mahomes. However, he gave up three passing touchdowns. The press got the week before that. They have a bottom third pass defense and DVA. They only have one interception. And I just really trust this, like, offense, the receivers, DJ Moore,

Robbie Anderson, Terrace Marshall, If Christian McCaffrey comes back, you know, that could help too in terms of like a screenplay or whatever. I just think we're not going to see Donald continue to like run the ball in for these touchdowns. I think he's going to have two touchdowns, two passing touchdowns in this game.

So yeah, Sam Donald over one and a half passing touchdowns against the Eagles. We really, I know it was in the power power hour, but it's actually pretty crazy how quickly all of our narratives have shifted and just how we feel about Sam Donald. It's like, it's insane that he's just like good and we're like yeah no same donald he's pretty solid quarterback but okay do you want to rehash it because

i feel like i talked about this ad nauseum over the summer like darnold it has you'll like this crack it's my favorite comparison for the thing is it's like being in a movie you could be heath ledger in the joke like as the joker like one of the best acting performances ever but if instead of christopher nolan a great director you have adam gase who's like Tommy whizzo or whatever you have like the worst director with the worst actors and the worst writers and the worst editors and the worst and the worst lighting. And also, because he's a bad director, all those people are changing out

because he thinks he doesn't know he's the problem. So he's switching all the players. You'll never know that Heath Ledger was a good joker. So then suddenly he's in a new movie and you're like, oh shit, he's great. He was always fine. It was just, he was in the, without exaggeration,

the worst possible place to succeed in the entire league. And now he's in a good one. It's honestly like what Quentin Tarantino does. He grabs random actors and puts them in his movie. He grabs people who have, you know, a little bit and he puts them in his movies and everyone's like oh my god this guy's amazing joe brady's

quentin tarentino no but for real though again like my favorite stat is like the um well one just the jets had the most points given to them in that era for darnald and they also were the worst against the spread which is mind boggling but part of that's again he had like i think oh my god i don't want to mess it up but i think you have 40 different combinations of offensive lines and 48 games for them i mean it's it's like you can't win like that yeah brutal i don't I don't know. I'm trying to think of an actor who Donald is in a Tarantino movie. Honestly, he's not, he's not this at all, but John Travolta was kind of like falling out, and then they put him in Pulp Fiction, and it kind of turned everything around again.

And everyone's like, oh, wow, John Chavolta can go serious. And thank God, because we wouldn't have the, the giff where he comes into the room and looks around. Like, what would the world be like without that meme? I'm not sure. I think it would be fine, to be honest. I think it would be almost indistinguishable from today. Thank you, Craig, for, like, earnestly considering that, that, like, scenario. I appreciate that.

High Fitz did not do it. I guess, sorry. So I'm in, by the way. I'm in on Donald, on one and a half over. It's pulpy, but I'm in on it. Did you say one and a half or two and a half? It's one and five past E's. Okay, good.

Yeah, too. Yeah, I'm over. I'm in that. That's all right. We got group chat. Donkey. Sweet. Craig.

Okay. This one kind of confused me. I can't stop betting Cardinals running backs, even though I missed last week on the Edmonds. I have a problem. Never stop stopping. I love, I think Chase Edmonds is my favorite running back in the league. I have no idea why.

I love him. Anyway, my bet this week, Sharks, thank you for meeting with me. It's Chase Edmonds and James Connor to each have over nine and a half carries versus the Niners. So this kind of confused me. They have the same rushing total line, and I went back and I looked at their games this season.

They've each had over nine and a half carries in three of the four games this year. The only game they didn't do it was in the same game. They have each gone over nine and a half three times together. And I'm looking, you know, I think there's going to be a lot of plays

in this game. You know, the Cardinals run a lot of plays, the Niners in the top half of the league in plays. And these teams run a lot. I know people think of Kyler Murray. They think of airing it out. Arizona's six highest

in rush percentage this year. And San Francisco is right up there with them at ninth. So I'm like, why wouldn't both of these guys get over 10 carries a game? James Connor had 18. team carries last week, and Chase Edmonds had 12.

The week before that, they each had 11. I don't remember. I'm wondering if that includes Kyler's scrambling. Oh, well... The Cardinals' rushing numbers are quite different if you remove Kyler's stuff. But are they designed runs? I guess it's still, I'm just like, they're a team that likes to run the ball. And even if Kyler's design runs are RPOs that he decides to keep, like, those could

also go to the running backs, you know? My point is that these teams run a lot of plays and they don't hate running the ball. And nine and a half seems low. I'm going to say when I watch the Cardinals play, it's very confusing because they've got all these single-digit skill players. And it's really, like, hard to keep track of who's who. James Connor, every time he gets the ball, even if he doesn't leave the game and he gets a carry and then another carry, I'm still confused if it's James Connor. He's number six. I believe.

Edmonds is two. Edmonds is two. And then Rondell Moore is four. And every time one of those guys touches it, I can't tell who's who. And he obviously, like, Connor looks different. because he's like taller and bigger, but like it's still just so confusing to me. How long until it's not confusing anymore? It's like a year.

I'm serious. Like Chase-Hubbins also gets me every time. I know. At least a year. So to be honest with these sharks, I came here really for your expertise. I wanted to talk this out because I'm not overly passionate about this, but it just stood out to me as a number that 75% of the time, both of these running backs have hit this. And they're playing the Niners in a game that will be probably close.

Or I think the Cardinals could win this game. If Trey Lance starts, they could be ahead. they could run a lot like they did last week against the Rams. I don't know. I'm just a little bit surprised by nine and a half. I think my issue here isn't even so much about the X's and O's, but what I don't like is the double exposure to running backs for an over because the unspoken problem with all overs is that if the player gets hurt,

you're fucked. And I don't like having two different running backs having to be healthy. Like, I don't know, that kind of, I'm already on the fence and that tips it kind of over for me. Because if either one leaves... I'm happy to just pick one running back. It's the same line. I think you go Edmonds. Connor has 10 more carries this year than Edmonds.

That's surprising. But again, they've both gone over 9, 75% of the time this year. Both of them. I think it's just so weird. And they run the ball a lot, or, you know, a decent amount. They run a lot of plays. Like, it all kind of checks out. So if you have to pick, Craig, which one would you pick?

To be honest, I think, I guess James Connor is more when they win big. So I guess I would pick Chase Edmonds to put respect on the Niners. But if you think the Cardinals are going to win big, then James Connor seems like a fucking shoe in. I'm looking at the injury report here. What about Chase Edmonds for the over three and a half catches? Oh, you were out on Chase Edmonds last week on that stuff.

You're in now? I'm just throwing it out. You know, I was out on the Chase Evans yardage. He did do very well. Why do you like three and a half catches? I'm just throwing it out there. I don't know. I do think there's,

As Bill calls them, the cocaine cardinals, they're hard to figure out, but I really do think there's something here. I think, you know, if both these guys get 11 carries, 12 carries tomorrow are on Sunday, I'm just going to be like, yeah, of course, they've done this. That's what they do.

D.K., you've been quiet. Mr. Wonderful. So I was just looking at the injury report. Chase Simmons did mispractice yesterday with his shoulder injury. I don't know if it doesn't look like he's going to be out, but that's something to consider also. I mean, that's obviously the tiebreaker.

let's roll with Connor then. You want to do Connor over nine and a half? Here's the real question. Do you guys think that Cardinals are going to win this game? Yeah, I think so. Then we should do Connor. Okay, okay. I'll do that.

Connor it is. All right. Group chat on Connor? God, we're on James Connor guys. We're doing the carries. Lots of the carries ones this week. Dude, just a group chat on James Connor. I just thought with the wire line when Bunk is like,

makes me sick, motherfucker. How far are we done, Phil? All right. That'll do it. Should we run through real quick? Let's do it. Yeah.

Okay. Marvin Jones, D.K. has over four and a half receptions. Hyfitts has Jalen Waddle over four and a half receptions. I believe that was a group chat. Then we go to Joe Burrow over 35 and a half passing attempts. That was also a group chat. Aaron Rogers over one and a half TDs at minus 200 pulp. Thick orange juice right there. We all took it.

Clyde Edwards Hilaire. Under 51-5 rushing yards. D.K. was alone on that one. Hyphitz and I stayed away. Then Hyfitts has Damian Williams under three and a half catches. I was in. D.K. was out. I took Michael Carter. For no reason. Michael

Carter over 11 and a half carries. D.K. is in. Hyfitts was out. Darnold, over one and a half passing yards. I believe that was a group chat. A little pulpy, but it was a group chat. And we got another group chat on James Connor over nine and a half carries versus the Niners. Boom. Let's get to some long shots. Yeah, let's do some long shots.

My first long shot. Justin Jefferson, two plus, touchdowns against the Lions this week. It's plus 650. And one of the main reasons I went with this is PFF has Jefferson with the single best cornerback receiver matchup in the NFL this week. It's like a 99.9 according to their ratings. So I'm liking that.

And I also just think it's going to be a good bounce back game for Kirk Cousins and the Vikings offense. You know, going up against the Browns defense last week. It's just tough. Like the Browns have now just made. two offenses look completely, completely worthless two weeks in a row. I think the Vikings get back to their high-flying ways this week. Justin Jefferson is ridiculously good, and he has a great matchup.

So I'm in on two-plus touchdowns from Justin Jefferson. I just want anybody to catch two-plus touchdowns on the Vikings. That's not out of dealing. That's crazy. I had two-plus touchdowns for Thielen. There you go. Did you? I can't believe you just said that. Honestly, the odds kind of suck because it's only like eight to one. and like the touchdown odds are never good.

It's like they know that's like the first thing people check. So like the touchdowns always suck. But I had the exact same thought process. Like the Brown's defense is so good that I wanted to actually instead of, all right, let me, you know what, give me one second. Let me come back to another long shot instead of just throwing out.

You want me to go? Yeah, you go. I'm going to put Sunday together based on the same logic. All right. This one, I wouldn't call it counterintuitive, but it's really sleepy. This is kind of a dark horse special, but I guess that's what these long shots are for.

Ronald Jones to score two plus touchdowns versus Miami is plus 1,500. It's 15 to 1. I think the Bucks are going to kill Miami. I don't think Leonard Fordnet is going to need to be that big of a factor in this game. I don't know if G. O'Brienard is going to play. I don't particularly care.

But Ronald Jones is good. I know he fumbled. He, like, missed past protection, whatever it is. I know he's good at running the football. And we liked him a lot in the offseason. I don't think he's going to be in the doghouse for the entire season. and also the Bucks haven't destroyed anyone really since he's been in the doghouse.

The games have been close. They've been using Fournette a lot. I don't think Fournette's going to need to be in the third and fourth quarter when they're up 35 to three on the dolphins. I think Ronald Jones could get like 10 plus carries, and I think two plus touchdowns. He could run his way out of the doghouse this week, I think. And I kind of like it. He had a touchdown last week. Man.

I will no longer ever support anything that has to do with Ronald Jones doing something well. So I'm out on this one I don't know if we actually Join in these ones Have we been in and out On the long shot ones We're just kind of like talking about them I think it's

I think they don't trust Ronald Jones I don't think that it's More than just being in the doghouse Like they just don't trust him at anything And Fournet has gotten The workload that I envisioned Ronald Jones is going to get before the year I agree with you

I think like he's a better pure runner But I just think he's making so many mistakes And like the little things that they really want From a running back like pass pro, you know, choosing the right rush lane, just simple stuff like that. Like he just has been really bad about all that stuff, which I didn't really see happening because he's a pretty good runner last year. So anyway, I'm out because I just think Fournet is the guy.

I just think Fournette, I think Fornett's like Ray John Rondo where I think he's play. He truly is playoff plenty. I think he only shows up in big games. Like he's important when they're on prime time. And I think Ronald Jones is going to be the guy who gets like eight to 12 shitty fourth quarter. quarter carries when they're out big. I like it. What's the payout again? 15 to 1. That's fun. I like that.

This would be one hell of a call. Okay. All right. So instead of the feeling 8 to 1 for the touchdown, can I give you guys one? So based on the same logic, though, which is that the Vikings looked off last week, but really, the Brown's defense was incredible. Yeah. Eye on that logic, the Brown, just the Brown's offensive line versus the Chargers defensive line is a huge mismatch. Chargers Offensive Line

versus Browns' defensive line's a big match I'm just going to throw this one out at you This is kind of the The Brown's Kickass Herbert has a bad game special Like betting against Justin Herbert To have a good game against Cleveland

Herbert Under 1 and a half passing touchdowns So basically Herbert does not have multiple touchdowns. He does throw a pick under on 290 yards and then Austin Echler under 55 rushing yards

is 12 to 1. So basically Justin Herbert is a bad game. Doesn't throw for 290, doesn't have multiple touchdowns, does throw a pick, and then I'll throw on Austin Eccler under 55 rushing yards, 12 to 1. Wow, I like it.

I don't. I'm never betting against Justin Herbert. Well, shock, in the third string quarterback. You know who you're Charlie Batch defending Ben Ralph's Burger this week. Damn straight I am. Let the man call plays now. The Gazette, yeah. That's you. You're Charlie Batch. I actually, I thought I'd get more of reaction. I like that one a lot. Well, I, I like it too because I will get to it in the bad QV league, but I've got Herbert circled.

Me too. I do too. Yeah. Shame on you both. So I'm in technically. Okay. Even though we're not doing in and out. Craig, what if I told you that if I pair that with Nick Chubb over 85 yards, it goes to 90, 19 to 1? Oh, 90 to 1 I'm in. No, not, not, 90. That would be no pulp. That would be like negative pulp. Listen, you know, it's kind of like a look at me through the Zoom. Like, I think it's a good bet, you know?

Like, I'm blinking twice if it's a good bet, but like I'm not going to openly disparage Justin Herbert. So I'm out. Just, yeah, just blink twice if you want to abandon your starting quarterback. Okay. Bad QB League. Bad quarterback league time. It is time. Again, bad quarterback league.

You can go to fandle.com slash bad QB. You can compete against us. You can also go to the app under NFL game styles. We're at the bottom. And yeah, it's like, it's, there's, we, aren't you sick of hearing about how Patrick Mahomes is good? We're going to talk about how Patrick Mahomes is bad because you don't want Mahomes in this league. Like, we're trying to get more Davis Mills in our lives, right?

It's honestly kind of fun to root for like picks and stuff. I actually think it's fun. Yeah. And these leagues are filling up every, every week, which is fun. Yeah. So you actually have to get in like before Sunday because they fill up sometimes. Okay. So there's six tiers.

You got to pick one quarterback from each tier. Tier one this week. Some dozy's. I'd actually don't. Did you guys have Davis Mills? I did quite well last week based on my Davis Mills. I had Mills, I believe. I can't remember.

Anyone who had Davis Mills did well. All right. So this week, Davis Mills against the Patriots, Drew Locke and or Teddy Bridgewater against the Steelers, Andy Dalton and or Justin Fields, Justin Fields, against the Raiders, Jacobi Percet against the Bucks Jimmy G against the Cardinals

Trey Lance against the Sorry I am just all over the place Jimmy G's not playing Trey Lance against the Cardinals That's the tear I feel like you just gotta go With Davis Mills against England He looked like

Incredibly atrocious last week Yeah against New England Against Belichick and his famous rookie Taking rookies out of it thing Yeah like come on This is the easy one I did have Davis Mills last week. I won seven bucks last week, by the way. Thanks to David's Mills.

All right. Tier two is Trevor Lawrence against the Titans, Ben Rothesburg against the Broncos, Mack Jones against the Texans, and Baker against the Chargers. Baker has a labrum tear. And like has been bad. Like, Baker has not played well. Yeah. I want Baker. I get that with the laborant tear. I want Rathesburg against the Broncos. I mean, the Broncos are, that's a good one. This is going to be tough. I mean, Von Miller is playing out of his mind. Yeah, that's a good one. I want with Chargers. I want with Chargers just because Chargers

have been making offenses look really bad this year. I bet on Vaughn for a defense player of the year this year. Ooh. I'm going to do Ben. Like, obviously I'm going to do Ben. Show me something, Pittsburgh.

It is a bad quarterback league. It's like, you want Ben Rothesburg. I mean, he's objectively the worst quarterback on this list, so that makes sense. And like, so like, you want positive points

in the bad quarterbacks league because when they play bad, you get positive points. He's had positive points in two out of four games. Like, that's really bad. Baker Mayfield hasn't done that.

He's been negative all three games. He still hasn't played well, but Ben has been actually bad. Yeah. All right. Tier 3. Joe Burr against the Packers, Jared Goff against the Vikings,

James against Washington, Taylor Heineke against the Saints. What do you think, D.K.? I went with Jared Goff. I did too. Against Minnesota. I'm not really sure why. I just didn't like any of these guys,

really, but I think I just went, well, number one, Detroit's offensive line is super banged right now. Like they may not have Penae Sewell. I think there's centers out as well. Yeah. So their offensive line is just really banked up. I think that they're going to have some trouble protecting.

And Goff, you know, he's always good for a ridiculously terrible throw here and there. So I'm looking at his stats. Yeah, he has not scored in the positive yet this year, which is surprising. But I think this could be the week. Going back to Tier 2 real quick, Trevor Lawrence has scored in the

positive three out of four weeks. I don't think it happens again, though, this week. I'm going to go with you guys in Goff. I feel like he's kind of the safe pick here. I almost want to trade him for Lawrence now just because you guys gave me such shit for betting against. Well, Lawrence is in the tier before. I just wanted to mention it because I know, but I feel bad now. Yeah.

No, I'm stick with Rothsburger. Okay, yeah. So I have Mills, Rothsburger, Gough. Do we have the same team? I have Mills, I have Miller, Baker Mayfield, golf. I've, it's you and I do. Great. How original. Our lives have been lived 10,000 times apiece. Okay. Tier four. Tanna Hill against the Jaguars, Derek Carr against the Bears, Sam Darnal against the Eagles, Kirk Cousins against the Lions, Danny Jones against the Cowboys. Who'd you go? So this is a fascinating week for Derek Carr because, like, the Raiders just lost them to charge money at football.

And then you saw what Joey Bosa said, where Joey Bosa was like, he's soft. Like he gets rattled after he gets hit. Like, great guy, great guy. But like, you know, really folds after you hit him a couple times, which what an all time. Like, just pivot. So obviously it's like, let's be real here. Like these are NFL players like the only thing you really can't say about them that they take personally is like calling them soft or like question their toughness. So like it's a huge week for Derek Carr to like be physically tough, right?

But what's crazy is Khalil Mack is the guy that's going to be hitting him this week against the writers. That's rough. Yeah. Calil Mack is who they have to bounce back against. I went with Daniel Jones. This is sort of an emotional hedge based on what I said the other day about Daniel Jones. starting to, like, heat up a little bit. Also, just, like, the way that Trayvon Diggs has been playing lately,

like, I could see him throwing a pick. Yeah. I don't know. I went with Jones, even though this might not be the most logical. He certainly scored... He scored the most points in the negative. Like, he's been the best out of this group of players. But I think this could be a bad week for him.

I think they just do Tanna Hill because I just feel like this is a Derek Henry game. I feel like Derek Henry owns the Jaguars. He's, like, average is. over 110 yards against them a game or whatever. And I just feel like this seems like a 30 carry day for Derek Henry. I went with Tanner Hill because I just, I just hate London games. Like, Taino having to fly from Tennessee to London, like, just like... Do you think Urban Meyer will skip the flight?

Yeah. He'll stay in London. Yeah, he's going to stay in London. He just, yeah, is this the London game? I thought the Jets were playing in London. Oh, yeah, wait, the Jets Falcons. Oh, you're right. I think I just programmed that only Jacksonville plays in London.

In my head, right. Oh, yeah. It is the Jets. Oh my God! I saw stat this morning. They've never had a London game between two teams with winning records. It hasn't happened yet.

It's a bummer for the British. I think the real answer to that is that they don't... I think they do it on purpose because they don't want to take a game that would get good ratings away from CBS or Fox. 100%. But regardless, isn't there like sort of a variable like you don't want playoff teams

having to fly to London and like that variable ruining their shot at the playoffs or whatever? Honestly, yes. I don't think they give a shit about that, though. Like, I think what they care about is not pulling high-rated games from CBS or Fox. And don't they usually only want to send

to East Coast team so their timing doesn't get all effed up? Yeah, yeah, I think so. Because if you're flying from L.A., it's like a, you know, it's like a 12, 14-hour difference or whatever it is. Like, that's a lot. But New York to London is, what, five hours? Like, it's like going to California. Mm-hmm.

So, I don't know. But I'm just, I'll stick with Daniel. His numbers and bad quarterback, like, he gets like single digits every week. Like he has not been terribly great. Okay. Tier 5 is Justin Herbert against the Browns, DAC against the Giants,

Tom Brady against the Dolphins, Jalen Hertz against the Panthers. I went Herbert for what I've said before. I just think the Browns, I think the Browns beat the charges this week. Yeah, I want Herbert too just because that defensive line, my God, has just made offenses look like JV teams.

I mean, I know that Herbert is better than Kirk Cousins, I assume, and then obviously also Justin Fields. but like, I don't know, just the way that they've been able to dominate games makes me a little bit nervous for her with this week.

I'm gonna go with Dak. Cowboys haven't running the ball a lot. Maybe this game. Yeah. You know, they stay away from it. He throws a couple of picks. I'm sticking with Dak.

On that note, we recorded this on Thursday. So I didn't get to, the lines for what the Cowboys are, the props aren't up, but I really was just really holding out for like seeing something about C.D. Lambs props.

He has just been, doing very poorly recently, but like I feel like this is a big, big, big game for CD Lamb. I just want to shout that out. Also, Amari Cooper's banged up. And James Bradbury is probably going to guard him if he plays. And CD, he still got great numbers

under the radar. I think CD is a big game. Don't bench him if you're thinking about it. Tier 6 is Aaron Rogers against the Bengals, Josh Allen against the Chiefs, Kyler against the Niners, Mahomes against the Bills. Obviously, I had the dream about Aaron Rogers, so I'm not picking him.

I won't with Aaron Rogers. I don't have a strong opinion on why. I think maybe it's just like I could see this being like a slog of a game, like not very many plays, not very much scoring. And kind of just like, I think all these are very good quarterbacks and they could, and all three of them could be in shootout type games. Like Josh Allen versus Mahomes,

like there's going to be a lot of scoring in that game. Kyler versus San Francisco. I just don't want to bet against Kyler, really. And then so like I'm just going with the, lowest volume quarterback, I think, this week, and that's Aaron Rogers. I went with Kyler. Anytime you think the Cardinals are... Anytime you think you know the Cardinals, they turn around and shoot you.

Turn around and shoot you. These division games are always weird. I think the Niners have a really good defensive front with Bosa coming at Kyler. Kyler is mistake prone. This is the time. Week five, the Cardinals are the only undefeated team. This is when they're going to let us know, like, oh, we're going to. the Cardinals. Just want to let you guys know, we're going to remind you.

Like, we're still Cliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray. So I'm taking Kyler. I feel that. I'm taking Mahomes. Wow. Which is not really what you ever want to do in a bad quarterback league. But I actually think, like, I think the bills just been playing a lot better than the Chiefs. The Chief's been sloppy. Part of me, like, I'm never actually really going to bet against Mahomes, but part of me thinks if the Chiefs are like ever going to get like dressed down on national television, it would be this weekend. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but I wouldn't be shocked

if the bill's won by like a lot. And like, just kind of been like, we're actually better than you. Again, it's what D.K said. It's like the bills are up 118 to 21 or whatever over the last three weeks. And it's like the chiefs, the chief, what is the, the chiefs threat 12, and I guess they beat the Eagles

by a lot, but before that, they were at like 12 straight regular season games that were decided by like a touchdown. They've been skating. If you want to ask the question of kind of who wants it more, I know that's a little bit like of a flimsy argument, but, you know,

I think this is a prove-it game for the Bills much more than it is for the Chiefs. It's nice when the Who Wants it, more thing aligns with who's been playing significantly better over the last three weeks. And the Bills, like,

it's not close. The Chiefs just, the Chiefs just are sloppy, man. Even Mahomes has been very sloppy. I mean, obviously, look, they dominated Eagles last week, but they're a much better team than the Eagles.

I think the Bills... So I got Mahomes. Okay, so I got Davis Mills, Rothusperger, Jared Gough, Ryan, Tainel, Herbert, and Mahomes. I got Mills, Baker, Mayfield, Jared Goff, Dale Jones, Justin Herbert, and Aaron Rogers. And I got Davis Mills, Big Ben, Gough, Tandahill, Dack, and Kyler.

There we go. Beautiful. Okay. That's all we got for this week. We'll circle back on next week on our argument about Pulp with Craig. We'll check in there. So a lot on the line. Thank you.

Do we have anything? The five-star rating. Sunday. Sunday, Greenroom on Sunday. Green Room on Sunday. We start at noon. If you start sick questions, you can hop on Green Room,

we download the app, and we're there live at noon, or you can just follow us on Twitter. 9 a.m. Pacific. noon Eastern, yes. You can follow us on Twitter. We'll be tweeting out the link right at noon. So Danny is Danny B. Kelly.

I am Danny underscore Hyphist, which you can find the spelling on this app. And then Craig is, what is your Twitter handle, Craig? Just my name at Craig Horlebeck. So you can follow us on Twitter, and then we'll be tweeting out the link. So you can do start sit up. It's not just like comments.

too. We can actually bring you up on stage. You can talk to us. Like, it's just like this. There's no magic to it. We can just like have a conversation about your team. It's a lot of fun. We do that at noon. And then we also do green rooms around seven Eastern,

four Pacific. Kind of like midway through the fourth quarter, we kind of just watch the end of these games together, talk about the day so far. So download green room. We're having a lot of fun there. And then, yeah. Thank you, Craig.

Thank you, D.K. Thank you, Lorne. Lord. Thank you, Wilson Phillips. Okay. Also, I do the green rooms on Monday, football, which I meant to say. Yeah, yeah.

But later. Plug that. Okay. Beautiful. Wilson Phillips, D.K. I actually don't know who that is. Like a, like a, like a, like, 80s. No, I think they're like 90s, aren't they?

90s, maybe. I was like, is that Wade Phillips's brother? No, they're like a, they're like a group of, are they sisters? Are they related? Like a pop group. I mean, you know, I don't know like the, I don't know their real bio that well. Well, fun fact. The, the, I just read the.

this is actually nuts. The group consists of of Carney and Wendy Wilson, the daughter of Brian Wilson, who's the lead singer of the Beach Boys, and China Phillips, the daughter of John and Michelle Phillips of the Mamas and the Pappas.

Yeah, they're like, they're like 70s music, uh, legacy people or whatever. Wait, the Mamas and the Pappas that actually had like,

like became Mamas and Pappas. And, like they're actually like a mom and Papa band. That's kind of funny. I knew the Beach Boys one, but, uh, I did not know that about the Mamas and Pappas.

That's interesting. Yeah, John and Michelle, Phillips. That is cool. Look at that. We're learning things. Beautiful. All right. I was going to thank you guys again, but I already did that. So I'm going to say goodbye. Best of luck to everyone do this weekend.