The Ringer NFL Show - ‘Shark Tank’ Prop Bets - Week 6

Episode Date: October 15, 2021

The Ringer’s Ben Solak joins us as we run through the top injuries from the week and discuss how they will affect your lineups before pitching one another on our favorite prop bets for the weekend��s games in the style of ‘Shark Tank.’ Later, we offer up our favorite long-shot bets of the week, give our Bad QB League picks for Week 6, and answer some listener questions. Injuries (1:46) Prop Bets (4:19) Long-Shot Bets (43:45) Bad QB League (50:36) Fantasy Court (58:19) Sign up and compete against us in the Bad QB League on FanDuel here.  Email us at [e-mail]. Hosts: Danny Kelly and Craig Horlbeck Guest: Ben Solak Producer: Craig Horlbeck Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, it's Craig Horlebeck from the Ringer Fantasy Football Show. If you're a fan of this show, there's a new Spotify feature that lets you automatically follow the show. Just tap the bell on the show page to get notified as soon as new episodes are released. By turning on new episode notifications, you'll also automatically start following the show. Pretty nice. And for all the latest episodes from shows that you follow, you can easily access them on the what's new feed on your home page. You just hit the little bell in the top right corner. You'll see all your new episodes.

All right, now let's get to the show. Welcome to the Ringer fantasy football show. I am not Danny Hifitz. What could I ever be if I tried? That's right. Highfitz is out today. He's slacking off somewhere. But today I'm joined by Danny Kelly and the ringers Ben Solak,

who you can listen to on the Ringer gambling show on Wednesdays with Warren Sharp as well as the Ringer NFL show on Fridays. Ben, do you play fantasy football? Poorly. I learned what basketball was this year, and that was sick. Because my problem with fantasy is that I... do a lot of like thinking and I'm like I know how football works. I'll start Kenyon Drake over Derek Henry because of DVOA.

And then it's just always wrong. I'm a chronic overmanager and overthinker. So best ball is sick. I think I'm going to like best ball forever. As Danny can attest, I missed the ringer fantasy football draft this year. And subsequently drafted Derek Carr, Cooper Cup.

I had a really good draft. It's been great. I think your team is pretty good still, isn't it? I think, yeah. So basically as little, as I can influence my own teams, the better. On today's show, we're doing our shark tank bets as usual, and Ben is going to join us for that.

But first, we have some news. D.K., you want to run us through that? Yeah, a couple things to monitor going into the weekend. So Damien Williams of the Bears was placed on the COVID-Ir list. He tested positive, I believe. And so he has to now have two negative tests before the weekend in order to play. It's looking unlikely that he'll play if it's this way late in the week. So Khalil Herbert is a late-week pickup.

If you haven't already grabbed him, He's definitely a guy to go grab. He was already splitting time almost 50-50 with Damien Williams last week. And so going forward, I think he can definitely be like a top 24 starter at running back going forward. So that's just one thing to monitor. Definitely go pick him up if you can. Another item, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones both on track to play the bills. So that's exciting because this has the potential to be sort of like an uptempo, high, high volume passing game with both Brown and Jones.

CMC still out as of Thursday afternoon. So it's looking like one more week of Chuba Hubbard versus Minnesota. And then finally, something to monitor as we're going into the weekend as we're going into Sunday. There appears to be a small COVID outbreak with the Cardinals, according to Dan Graziano from ESPN. There were three COVID tests with the team this week. They're getting increased testing. I know that DeAndre Hopkins was out with an illness on Thursday, unclear. yet if that was related.

But it's just something to monitor as we go forward. So, yeah, those are the main things to kind of keep in mind right now. Yeah, AJ Brown, man, we're all waiting. The usage has been strong. The output has not been strong, but I know that he's been dealing with injury, so hopefully now he's healthy and good to go.

Okay, let's get this started. So Ben has not done Shark Tank with us, but we essentially pretend that we're on the show Shark Tank. I don't know who's who. You could be Mark Cuban today if you want Mr. Wonderful. So I've never seen an episode of Shark Tank. My full exposure to Shark Tank was listening to last week's episodes that I understood what the concept here would be. And so I didn't know why we were calling people sharks for a while.

Googled that. I generally liked the music, though. The vibe was great. Excited to participate. Clearly, your economics teacher in high school never missed any time because when you had a sub, man, they just fired up Shark Tank. What high school were you going to? Were you teaching economics to 16-year-olds? We had an econ class.

We had social studies, man. that's wild. They didn't even teach us how to write checks when I was in high school. Yeah, exactly. I don't have at home economics.

That was about it. Ben, here's the deal. Shark Tank, it's not a Discovery Channel show. It's about investing. That's different.

I'm trying to get you invest in my deal or in my bet here and here's what I'm going to offer you. Sharks. Okay. I want a $5 bet.

I'm looking for a $5 bet on Terry McLaren hitting the over 77 and a half yards this week. Going up against the Chiefs, we've seen this chiefs defense.

Ben, you wrote about it. the Chief's defense, even before they completely fell apart against the bills. So you were definitely on top of this one. And there's a couple of things that are really like pointing towards Terry McLaurin this week. Number one, obviously, going against the Chiefs defense, which has been very, very bad against the past. In fact, they are 31st in past defense DVA this season so far. Not great.

Curtis Samuel, he had a groin injury. He's still out. Diomi Brown, still dealing with the knee thing. he's kind of like limited all week. Logan Thomas is out. Dick Seals Jones is kind of like the only other past catching weapon in this offense other than obviously the running backs in this offense. However, it's all McLaren.

It's a funnel to McLaren. He's a target hog right now, 29% target rate on the season. That's fifth most among receivers. Going back to since week two, here's his targets. 14, 7, 13, and 11 in that stretch. So from week 2 on, he has 45 target. It's second only to Devante Adam. So he's going to get a ton of targets in this game.

Heineke is kind of just this fuck it. I'm going to throw it up type of quarterback going up against the chiefs who are bad. I think the chiefs are still, they're still a very good offense. Washington offense or Washington defense is not good. So I could see this being a high scoring game. All that together. I think there's a solid chance that McLaurin goes over the 77 and a half receiving yards. And the other thing to keep in mind, the times that he's gone under that number of this season,

it was against Buffalo, who's number one in defensive devoe. Sorry, defensive past DVA. New Orleans, who's fourth, and the Chargers, who are 11th. And again, KC ranks 31st. So, Sharks, what do you think? All right, so my opening question is this. Why not the receptions line? Why the receiving yards line?

What is the receiving, what's the receptions line? So the PFF player prop tracker has it at six and a half, which he's hit the over. over on, I think, every single time this season. And your whole argument is predicated on targets. So why not receptions over receiving yards? Wait, the, it's six and a half catches? Yeah.

That's what the, yeah, it's what the PFF tracker has it at, which I know they pull from different books. So they have it at six and a half. He's had under six catches in three of five games this year. Has he? I thought he's been over and every single one. The idea with me with the amount of volume is I'd be worried about how far they can get down the field because I'm worried about how long they get bass protect,

which is why I would rather take the receptions. But this is your problem. You can do whatever you want. Well... No, no, no, no. That's not what this is, Ben. I'm trying to convince you to buy in, buddy. He needs an investment.

I'm sticking with the receiving yards. And here's the reason. I think... I don't have it in front of me, but I saw Kansas City, one of the worst in the NFL in explosive passes allowed. I don't know.

I just think all things considered, like, the shoot-em-out-style game that's going to be... The reason I brought up target, is just because he's going to get like the vast majority of this offense. He's fourth so far on the season in Air Yard. Sorry, in Team Air Yard Share. He's getting 44% of the air yards in this offense.

So I just think all those things together are going to add up to a lot of volume and a lot of yards. I do like, if you guys want to do a side bet on the receptions over too, like I'm totally down with that. But I was sticking with my receiving yards one here just because I did all the work for it. And I don't know it off the top of my head what you're asking me. I do like that he beats up on bad teams against the Giants. He had 11 catches against Atlanta.

He had six for 123 and now they're going up against the Chief's defense that has been terrible over the past few weeks. So 77 does feel a little high. It does. But considering this is one of the highest totals of the week,

I like to shoot him up potential. D.K., I'm in. Let's go. Hell yeah. Hell yeah. I'm down. There's no Traverius Ward this week as well if members of observes.

At least we're not expecting it. I know he didn't practice on Thursday, which means he's getting Rashad Fenton on the outside. Mike Hughes. Yeah. I like Terry in all matchups, but especially in those matchups. What's going on with Washington's

defense, Ben? So we have five very good defensive linemen. Yeah. And because they're all very good, we never want to take them off the field. So we're going to live in five down fronts. And then so they're trying to run like tight bear stuff, which is like

you know, it's a good example. It's a little bit like Brandon Staley inspired, but not really. But anyway, so they're trying to run all these five down fronts. They're not getting dominance from those guys. And then they signed William Jackson to be a number one corner. And that was

a little bit worrisome from the jump and their secondary is not like physical. They don't want to play. Jackson Fuller right now looks like he's just like bribing. You know what I mean? Like Cam Curl is nuts. Everybody else, chilling. So if you're not moving the quarterback off his spot, these guys right now aren't playing

as solid in man coverage. You need somebody some of the big money guys, whether it's young and Montesville in terms of draft picks or Fuller and Jackson in terms of contracts to start showing up. So the reason I ask is I do think this is, I mean, Chiefs are going to probably play anybody good in terms of their offense. But I do think this is going to be like a high volume, high scoring game. So I think that's good for like the game script for Washington.

I was looking at a bunch of Kansas City, Patrick Mahomes props, but I was like, those are boring and lame. Taking it over on Patrick Mahomes because he's Patrick Mahomes is not fun for a podcast. That was an unwitting dig at Haifitz there, yeah. Yeah, what Hyvitz likes to do. Yeah, Hyvitz likes to find these lines with terrible juice. It'll be like Patrick Mahomes over one and a half touchdowns. It'll be like minus 230 and he'll run that out as his prop bet.

We'll be like, cool, that's why you have an inflated percentage of hit rate. You can't just track the win loss. You've got to track the units. That's where it is. If you look at my win loss this season, horrible. Look at my units? We're doing okay. Yeah, we call it pulp.

How much juice a bed has? What's the pulp? A ton of pulp. Okay, so that's a group chat. Hell yeah. When we all agree, it's called a group chat. because then we create a group chat and talk about and we just track Terry McClellan's targets and receptions.

I hate it. Okay. All right, sharks. Yo. I'm looking for $5. That's it. $5 from each of you. You could even combine for $5.

That's okay. For Aaron Jones, over 53 and a half rushing yards versus the Chicago Bears this week, I think the bears are going to try to make Green Bay run the ball, limit the deep ball, keep everything in front of them. And throwing out week one when they played New Orleans,

Green Bay I'm talking about, Aaron Jones has averaged 75 rushing yards a game on 16 carries a game. I like the over on his 13 and a half carries too. I think that we've all gotten a little bit too hot on the AJ Dillon thing in the last two weeks. I think that's been a little bit more game script dependent and the carries are still there for Aaron Jones.

The yards are still there for Aaron Jones. He's still one of the best running backs in the league. Fifty-three and a half seems really low for a guy who's like a top five back in the league in a game that has a low total that I think they're going to run a lot. So I like 53 and a half over for Aaron. So I accidentally stepped into a

high fits dig. I have been trying to predict this Packers backfield for five weeks, and I'm like, oh, for five. I cannot do it. I missed a very large parlay on the, who's the Packers play in prime time the other week, the Bengals it was, the last week game,

because A.J. Dillon got his first ever red zone target all season. Just, yeah, we're not going to throw to Aaron Jones this time. Oh, my gosh, I can't get them right. So you don't want me in on this. But what I will say is that off of the. way I understand how they divvy out their runs. If they want to go between the tackles, they want Dylan. If they want to stretch, they go Jones. When you look at where you're going to beat this Bears defense, they play with light personnel. The linebackers are very, very fast. It's

through the tackles. So to me, this is the game I expect heavy Dylan and not heavy Jones. So I'm out. But again, I have not been correct on this Packers backfield at all. It has been my nightmare this season. So you do not want me in on this investment product. Shark. Nice throw in there with a shark. Nice job. DK, what do you think? So, oh, man, this is tough, too. I feel like I've been, like, the guy, the only, well, not the only guy, but, like, one

of the few people that's super excited about A.J. Dylan. So I'm like, my heart is telling me I want A.J. Dylan to have a bigger part of the offense and, like, be a big part of it, which is why I'm actually going to be in. Because kind of along the same lines as what Solok was saying, it's like, I've always just been sort of wrong on this run game. And since my heart wants me to have a big A.J. Dylan. date, I think I'm going to hedge here. Go with Aaron Jones.

Think about Jones is like it takes this, this is like, you could get three quarters the way there with like a big run from him. And he's always like down for like a nice 30 yard run or whatever. So I'm going to say, I'm going to go with this one. I'm going to say I'm in because I just think Aaron Jones is a super explosive runner. I don't think that like the utilization really didn't change all that much in terms of the ground game last week. I mean, yeah, you can look at his short down and distance snaps A.J. Dillens, and he had 100% of them in week five, but there was one of those snaps. Yeah. So it doesn't really mean as much, you know.

Aaron Jones is still, so this is from the PFF utilization report, which is, again, invaluable. So he had 61% of Aaron Jones, 61% of the rushing attempts, A.J. Dillan, just 35. I mean, it's still definitely Aaron Jones's backfield. Dylan is more of like a change of pace guy, which is funny because he's like 247 pounds. he's just like throwing up. We changed the pace by jacking the pace up. Just making it very difficult for you to tackle this guy. So anyways, yes, I like this one. I'm going with Aaron Jones.

Every time I've doubted Aaron Jones, I think. Like every time we've literally ever talked about him on this podcast, I've been wrong. So I'm going with you. Always underrated Aaron Jones. Okay, cool. All right, Ben, hit us. All right, I'm excited.

Okay. Hammerheads and Great Whites. Here we go. I want Henry Ruggs over 44 and a half receiving yards. That's what I'm hoping to get the five bucks. investment into. And here's why. Broncos defense, big Fangio defense, we're going to be a quarter style defense. We're going to build a roof on top of you, whatever. They've actually given up a fair number of explosive passing plays this year. We even saw that in their loss to the

Steelers where the Steelers were able to get Deonti Johnson 101 on the outside sideline route. And that was their first score. It's where they generated their lead. So they're at 9% explosive passing play surrender this year. It's right about league average. Meanwhile, Ruggs is fifth in the league in targeted air yards at 16.4. So only four players in league get targeted downfield more than Ruggs does. His lowest yardage market of the season was 46, which would be over this number. His lowest target market of the season was three. It was last week, and he was still over this number.

He had 51 yards because he has a completion of at least 23 yards in each game this season. So he's going to get halfway there at least on one play. So I'm asking basically, will Henry Ruggs be able to get 22 yards elsewhere in the game beyond his one big deep target, a minimum, or excuse me, a maximum of 22 yards? So because of how explosive Ruggs is and because this Broncos defense is willing to give up those plays, I think that Ruggs is a good shot to go over this number. If you have a book that has like longest reception over under,

it's usually set around 23.5, sometimes 24.5 for Ruggs right now. To me, that's an over as well. I expect him to be an explosive part of this passing game. I think this is going to be a tight game. So I expect the Riders to be down in the fourth quarter, need the opportunity for some shot plays. I think that Ruggs makes a lot of sense going over his total. This was a hard.

This game is hard for me to kind of, wrap my mind around because, you know, you got like the John Gruden thing that happened and, like, what effect will that have on this team? Like, on one side, I could see them completely falling apart. On the other hand, I could be like, you know, it's been an emotional week for the players and therefore they come out, like, playing hard and all that stuff and like Derek Carr lights it up. I don't know how to feel about this. I do like this one, though. And again, with the utilization, like, he's still running a ton of routes and he's still getting, generally speaking on the season, he has had a really good target rate.

Just last week, it just was kind of a blip. It wasn't good. And I think he's going to get back to how he was, like, kind of earlier on in the season. So I like this one. I like the ones that are like, you can get, like, a big play and get really close to, like, where you're wanting to be.

So I kind of, at the end of the day, and I'll talk about this a little bit, one of my props, but I think this is going to be kind of like a higher scoring and more past game-oriented games. then it might feel like on paper. So, yeah, I'm going to be in on this one. Yeah, coming out hot on a Henry Ruggs bet is bold, I will say.

Ruggs has burned us in the past in fantasy. But yeah, you're right. All the underlying numbers are there. His routes have gone up every week. And everything you pointed out makes a lot of sense. I can't believe I'm investing my capital in Henry Ruggs, but I'll do it. Let's go with over.

I will say, so from a pure film perspective, Ruggs looks better this year than he's ever looked in the NFL, right? I think last year we wanted him to be like a top 15 drafted wide receiver, and he was just volatile, right? Like there were moments who you were like, yeah. And then there were moments who were like, God, no. This year, there's a lot more steadiness. There's a lot more, that's how it's supposed to look over the middle of the field.

It's how it's supposed to look in short areas. Like, he feels like he's rounding out his game a lot. The other thing that interests me is I think that Kareem Jackson's maybe out for this game, which means that Fangio's got to figure out what he wants to do with Waller, because Cream Jackson is their box safety. He's usually the guy you'd like over Waller. And so if they have to get clever with how they defend Waller, it gives Ruggs good matchups on the outside.

If it's like Patrick Sotan, he's got the ability to burn Surtan and get downfield. Former teammates, right? Yeah, got a lot of reps against one another in practice. Problem is that Sertan's a big boy. And Henry Ruggs pretty quick. Yeah, yeah. That's never like the greatest...

We talked about that in the past with Richard Sherman. Like, he just doesn't play well against like the shifty little guys, the speedsters. So that's a good one. You mentioned this, but he hasn't hit the under at any point this season. I think that's kind of crazy. Anyway, I like that bet. Let's do it.

That's how you know it's going to hit this week. Had to say it. Sorry. James and a field goal kicker right here. Yeah. He has not missed from this range all season. All right. Sharks.

Sticking with that same game. I'm looking for an investment in Melvin Gordon under 47.5 rushing yards this week. So there's a few reasons that I like this bet. I mentioned it before. I just kind of for whatever reason, I got this gut feel that it's going to be more of like a past game oriented, like script or whatever. It's going to be sort of back and forth.

I think that the Raiders are going to come out inspired or whatever because they've gone through this emotional week and they're just going to be sharper than we thought. On the other side of the ball with Gordon, he's been dealing with a hip injury this week. They said it was like a lower body injury coming out of the last game. It's been revealed. It's a hip injury. He did not practice on Wednesday and he was limited on Thursday. They've had a 50-50 time split, but basically right down the middle, more or less, with Giovante Williams going throughout the season.

And Gordon hasn't looked bad, per se, but Javante's looked really good. It feels like he's really kind of coming on. And I could just see this be a game where they let Javante handle a little bit more of it. Don't try and push Gordon too much because of the hip thing. And honestly, like, well, it depends on the game script, but Gordon has just nine carries, and you the past two games. So it's not like he's getting a ton of volume. He's definitely been more like, he's been utilized in the passing game,

things like that, but he's not getting a ton of volume. So I don't know, all things together, I think there's a chance that Denver has to play from behind, which goes against what Ben was saying, but I just, I don't know.

It's just tough to read this game. I just ultimately don't think they're going to lean heavily, heavily on Gordon. So I'm going with the under here. Yeah, when it's a close line, you expect, like,

you know, both teams will be in past heavy scripts at the end of the game, right? Like, that, like, one of the things that, like, you know, I do when I build out player props

is you look at the total, or excuse me, look at the total, but you also look at the spread, because if I think right now that Broncos game is like minus two, minus three, okay, well then it'll probably be tight late, which means both teams are in past mode late. And so that does lend itself to that. It worries me a little bit just because I, and this goes to where I am

personally, I just don't love Giovante Williams in terms of how he's playing. Actually, talking about rugs is a really good, rugs where he sees it in comparison to Javantes is interesting because Javante is volatile right now. There are runs where you're like, holy spokes. Like, this is like the, but those are movement skills, right? Yeah.

I remember when the Broncos released their video, their other scouts talking, they were like, oh, he's got some chub in him. He's got some Ezek in him. You see those best Javante runs. You're like, yeah, I see it. But then there's the standard runs where he should be picking up three yards and he's picking up negative one and whatever, right? And so those lend me to believe that the Broncos will continue to wean him on,

but at the same time, like, they clearly want him to be the guy. so I understand why we're going there. So are you in or out? I might be. Give me more time to think. All right, Craig, you answer first. I'm not going to force you to say it right away, Shark, because I want you to think about it.

Think long and hard. See what Craig does. Maybe we can figure something out. I don't know if it's going to happen just yet for Giovante. Yeah. You know what I mean? Like, it's still truly an even split. And I think Denver is going to beat Oakland.

I mean, Las Vegas. I don't really think the Raiders are that good. And I think if Denver gets an early league, lead here. They're going to ride Melvin more than they will Giovante, and that's what we've seen so far this season. So 47 yards is not too much. I think he's hit the over on that.

60 or 80% of the games he's played this year. So I'm going to take a slight... I'm going to be slightly out, Shark. Yeah. I'm also slightly out. I feel bad for you. It was a good pitch. I like the cut of your jib. I don't know what they say on this show. Well, really what I'm

looking for is for you guys to feel bad. For you guys to feel bad about. bad for me. That's really what I'm going for. Just, yeah. Pity. What, pity is really what I'm looking for. What's the deal? What's going, what's been going on with the Broncos, though, of late? Because they just lost the Ravens and Steelers. I mean, the Ravens I get, like the Steelers, what happened there? Yeah, their run defense was quite poor. They're trying to figure out how to get, like, what bodies they want to get up front where on early downs. On late downs, it's fun. Yeah. And I mean, we're going to blitz like crazy. We've got Draymont Jones. We got Shelby Harris. Got Von Miller. Malik Reed. Like, these guys can

penetrate. First down, second down. All right, well. They're struggling to figure out what linebackers they want and how to defend the run. Also, I hate to say this. I think we all want, we do this all the time in fantasy football where we want the new young guy to take over for the established veteran,

but it never happens as soon as we want it to. Melvin Gordon is a perfect example of that. Touches hate us, yeah. Melvin Gordon actually looks good, to be honest. Like when you watch him, he's been good his entire career in my mind, but you never wanted him to be. You wanted Echler to take over, and now we want Chimte Williams to take over,

but he's just not letting it happen. Even with the hip injury, that's really been, it's not necessarily, that I think he's playing poorly. I think he was back to practice today. Yeah. That's fine. We still got a couple group chats

that we can lean on here. What happens when someone's a loan, no support? They're like a green bubble. They just got no, nobody wants to be in a chat with them. We haven't labeled that yet. We don't know what that is.

We have to come up with that. We should, yeah, we should keep track of like when it's just one person on their own and then like what the hit rate is on those because that would be fun. Lone wolf. Okay.

The lone wolf. That's a good one. Lobo solo here. All right here. Sharks. I'm looking for five bucks on the Austin Echler over 39 and a half receiving yards versus Baltimore. The Baltimore Ravens have given up a league high, 342 receiving yards to opposing running backs.

A lot of running backs hurt on the chargers, not named Austin Echler. He's been averaging six catches for around 48 yards per game over the last four games. The Ravens are just really struggling with running backs. Their linebackers aren't doing a good job. The Ravens also blitz a lot. I think Herbert will be dumping off to Echler.

he has been dumping off to Echler in the past. I think this is kind of, I think 39 and a half is really low. This is all kind of the perfect confluence of things I need to happen for Echler, who I think could have 80 yards receiving this year. Yeah, I'm, and on this bat, then on this one, I love this one.

I think as O'Rondor for Pure Receptions is that four and a half, I want to say, which is quite high for running backs, but still with the way they target him, if Herbert drops back on first and 10, doesn't like what he sees right away, he just drops it off to Eighty. That's like a very clear point from the coaching staff to the quarterback.

Like we're going to stay ahead of the sixth on first down. You can tell that's how they're trying to play it. That's why he holds the ball so much later on like third down and fourth down. It's trying to be aggressive early. They're very cautious. And it makes it a lot of sense, right? Ravens right now are like 29th in the league and DVOA when defending running running backs in the passing game.

They do not have the personnel to do it. It's a smash spot. Yeah, I'm in too. I like this a lot. So he's been playing on, so like for instance, last week, according PFF, he had, he played on 81% of the long down and distance and 100% of the two-minute snaps. So he's getting opportunities here for passing game usage. I mean, he's like playing.

He's almost at McCaffrey level, kind of. Not really, but he's close. He's definitely like one of the main focal points of their offense. We thought that it would be like a bigger rotation with whether it was like Larry Roundtree or Joshua Kelly or whoever. It's just like Echler is the guy. And then like those other guys are basically in there just to like spell him for a few snaps here and there. Yeah, and he's getting the short down carries too, which is kind of always the big knock on him, that he wouldn't get the ball when it's a short down in distance.

But he has. He got 100% of those carries last week. Yeah. So I'm in. This group chat, this baby. This is a good one. He's a lot of fun, man.

He's just a straight, good player. Like, I think there's a lot of figuring out and finagling like, oh, Philip Rivers and how he plays and yada yada and like the size, whatever, just good, good ball player.

It's not dissimilar to the conversation around like Camara, right? It was just like, the guy makes dudes a miss. What do you want? What's his nickname? What do they call Camara? Or what do they call Echler? It's like,

it's like something about pound strength per pound pound for pound that's what they call yeah yeah oh that's cute like I think he's like the best pound for pound running back in the NFL or whatever what this game is gonna be fun by the way who do you guys like in this game

I think I like L.A I think the Chargers win it yeah Baltimore doesn't match up well on defense right Marlon Humphrey takes away Mike Williams hypothetically you got to deal with Keenan Allen against like Anthony Averitt nightmare they play with multiple titles

ends. That means Patrick Queen and Malik Harrison on the field and pass down's nightmare. And then the other side of the ball, oh, like, you know, the Chargers run defense is bad, running on them. Ravens run offense isn't what it was, man. No back. The offensive lines beat up. It's all Lamar making stuff up, which, listen, that's problematic for everybody. I don't dispute that. But the Ravens aren't built, you know, for all the Lamar discourse, they aren't built to do what they did against the Colts. And I think the Chargers past defense just has a little bit more teeth on the Colts past defense does. I don't see them being able to pull it back if they go down early.

I almost had, I almost pulled out a Keenan Allen prop this week, but it's just like, do I really want to be betting against Mike Williams? Like at this point time, like, come on. Ben. This is me. I have been very trepidacious of the Jacksonville Jaguars and the way that their team is run because the things that I think are smart, they don't do, looking at Leviska-Chanalt mostly.

But with that said, we expected James Robinson, the running back to have a big volume early. He did not. And now all of a sudden he's back on the up swing. And so the line set for him this week against Miami Dolphins is 15.5 rushing attempts. I like the over on that. And I like the over on 73.5 rushing yards. But focusing mainly on attempts, Miami is 21st right now and run defense DVOA.

So you can run the football successfully on them. Again, going back to what we were talking about earlier, this is a three-point line. So we expect this to be a close game throughout. It's not going to be a situation where the Jaguar's necessarily sitting on the ball, but it won't be a situation where they're not able to run the ball in the second half because they're losing by so much. We saw when the dolphins had to a Tungaviloa healthy that that was the model they wanted to follow.

They wanted to be a team that won close games tough that relied on their defense. Meanwhile, we know DJ Chark isn't available for this game. Marvin Jones is nursing an injury and he's potentially out. So the more we're taking away their passing options, the more we expect them to be run heavy early, try to control the game scripts, try to put together some long drive. every James Robinson dose in the first half. He was at 16.5 for his prop in week one against Houston. He was under that.

Immediately, his prop number cratered. I went to 9.5, 12, 13.5 in subsequent weeks because people thought this was a committee. But the way he's in playing means it's not a committee. He's had 18, 18, and 15 carries in each in the last three weeks. He's had over 73 yards in each of the last three weeks. He's coming off of the best performance, perhaps of his career, 18 carries 149 yards, and a touchdown against the 10. Tennessee Titans, and Carlos Hyde had a bad goal-line fumble,

which means if they get inside the 10 and they're running the football, I think Robinson has probably earned a few more of those carries over Carlos Hyde. So to me, over 15.5 rushing attempts for James Robinson, who we now can all officially trust because the Jaguars will do a smart thing on offense. You buy it? This is like, it's so funny because, like, I love everything about this, but however, it's the Jags, and I just like, my God.

Exactly. And you know Carlos Hyde will get 13 carries. Seriously, this is what I'm worried about. So difficult. By the way, Viska's over. was 53.5 receiving yards last week, and he had one catch for 58 yards. I hate that team so much.

Ben, I talked last week about Marvin Jones over three and a half catches, I think it was, or four and a half or whatever. It's like, because, you know, like, whatever. And then I remember joking, like, ha, ha, they've got Jamal Agnew and... Yeah, maybe he'll lead them in targets for this game. And of course he fucking did.

And they've got Liviska playing outside receiver on 90% of his snaps, and they're giving Agnew every target that would make sense from Lvica. It's disgusting. Yeah. Anyway, James Robinson. Is this the game?

Is this the game that's in London this week, right? It is. Yes. I'm just calling shenanigans on this whole game. I like everything you said. I'm going to be out just because it's in London. And it's Irvin Meyer and the Jaguars. And I just don't.

Something weird is going to happen. You know what I mean? Something very weird is going to happen. I can't trust this team. So for that reason, I'm out. However, I don't disagree with anything you said. Um, I don't know. The Carlos Hyde game.

The Carlos Hyde game is coming. He already had five carries last week. Robinson snaps took a dive, but his rushes didn't. He kept up with his rushing attempts. Oh, God, they're in London. Will Urban even make it to the game? Who knows? If Irvin doesn't make it to the game, that helps James Robinson, in my opinion.

Right, right, right. Yeah, maybe I'll send Urban some places he can go in London so he won't make it to the game. All right. I like it. they're feeding Robinson so much, and he's just such a talented player. He's so much better than Carlos Hyg James Robinson's really good. 73's not that much.

I'm in, I'm in. The worst thing about betting props is you take something that's good in a vacuum, but then you expand it out to be like Jaguars in London, you're like, I hate how I feel inside. Props are the worst for that reason. I'm definitely not getting up at 630 to watch this, though, that's for sure. Just check the score sheet from bed. See how we did.

Right, yeah. Okay. Who's up here? Okay, last one for you. All right. So I go into this, Sharks, with the knowledge that I am going to be betting in favor of one Ben Rothesberger. However, I still like this bet. Ben Rothesberger over 256.5 passing yards.

256 just on its nose feels like attainable for an offense, for any offense going up against the Seahawks defense. But I do think that the Steelers in general have been trending in the right direction. Like Ben Rathsbrugger's A-DOT has gone out. in each the past three weeks. He's averaging 288 yards per game at home passing versus 210 passing yards on the road. They're at home against the Seahawks. Seahawks defense is incredibly bad, you guys. They've allowed 321 passing yards for game.

They've gone four straight weeks with giving up 450 plus yards of total offense, which is tied for the longest in NFL history. They might not do it again, but they're really bad is the point. and I don't see really honestly I don't know how they're going to get better part of me is like oh this is the week they figured out because the Steelers offense has been very clunky and all that stuff

like Ben Roth's were good arm getting ready to fall off when I watch the Seahawks defense it's like guys don't know where they're supposed to be the communication is not there the scheme is so boring and bland it's like teams can just like if it's a zone they just run a zone flood and then just get an easy

first down if they're playing off they just run like a five yard stop route or whatever and like pick up the first down It's just so easy to play against the Seahawks right now. They've had three sacks in the last four games. They have very little pass rush, which is probably the most frustrating part, I think, because I came into the season thinking

they had some underrated guys that could get it going. It just hasn't happened. Daryl Taylor is basically the only guy that they got going, and they don't have Jamal Adams blitzing hardly at all. I kind of see this game, potentially even being the Jamal Adams game, where they start blitzing him a lot, which I think is actually bad,

which is actually good for Ben Rathustrager and bad for the shots. You've got to walk me back through that last, bit. I lost you there. So, Jamal Adams, sorry, Jamal Adams being more involved in blitzing is bad for the Seahawks, and it's good for Ben Rothsburger.

Because I think they're going to dump it off and do a lot of screens. The Seahawks have been getting screened to death. They suck at screen, like defending screens. Seahawk fans are just going crazy because KJ. Wright was like on free agent, like, market till like week three or two or something or whatever it was.

And like, everyone was just like, why the hell have we re-sign KJ right? The CX just refused to do it. KJ wants to come back. He's the screen whisperer. He's so good at blowing up these plays. And now they just get gouged and gouged and gouged on screenplays.

Like we watched the Vikings do it with Madison, like all game long. Or I don't remember if Dalvin play. I think Madison was in that game. So regardless, I think in any case, I think it, I think that Rossburg has a very, very strong chance of going over this unless like gets hurt, which, you know, could happen. But the Seex defense sucks. Listen, you gave me the vibes were off on James Robinson and the Jags offense.

And then you want me to bet on Ben Rothesberger over passing yards? In primetime? Absolutely not. I always even entertain this notion. Absolutely not. What's the primetime aspect have to do with it? Is that worse for him? Because optimally, he's very bad and everyone's watching it

so that I can tweet all my Ben Rothensberger takes to the highest volume. That's my primetime aspect. That's fair. Because if it's a bad Rothensviger game at 4 p.m., nobody cares. This is a good hedge for you then.

It's a win-win. Even if he plays well, then you're winning this. Sidney Jones is playing good. Jordan Brooks is fast. No, he's not. He's playing. I will say,

I do have Chase Claypool over in this game. I remember that for sure. I can't remember if I think the line was around like 65 or something like that. So I do have that. So, okay, fine, whatever. I'm going to say that emotion. I'm going to say that emotional.

you're there, you just don't want to do it because I just rejected your James Robinson one. Yes, I cannot believe... Listen, if the vibes were off about James Robinson, again, there's no way the vibes are correct for Ben Rothesberger and Matt Canada. I own that. I own that. I fully recognize that and acknowledge it. So that's fair.

Craig, you're the Steelers fan, so this probably isn't going to go over well with you. Yeah, I'm not going to join you on this either. I'm going to sit out, Big Ben. Damn it. I got two solos. Jesus, this is brutal. Yeah, I mean, the Steelers play a lot. Ben plays a lot better at home.

They are at home this week, I believe, right? They're in Pittsburgh. Yes. Man, but no, I just can't do it. The primetime situation terrifies me because I can just see it. We're in the early in the third quarter, and Ben's like nine for 21 for 80 yards in a pick, and we're all tweeting about how we need Mason Rudolph or Dwayne Haskins in,

and everyone's like, this is it for Ben. This is his last primetime game. It's over. I don't like this at all. And even if the Steelers play well, like they, did against Denver last week, they ran the shit out of the ball because they didn't want bend to throw. They bent through it 25 times last week. So even if they get ahead and they beat up on Gino, I'm not sure they'll even throw that much. Yeah. And I feel like if anybody gets a lot

of extra targets now with Juju out, it becomes Najee Harris probably because he's the quick underneath guy, right? Like the short stuff, I should say. And like that's not conducive to a high passing game total unless Naji's really playing outside of his mind, which is possible. He looked great against the Broncos. He's got, Naji's going to pick up 100 yards of Cesar. on screens. Just wait. Seahawks have given up the second most passing yards of all teams this year. So just saying...

I love that D.K. always goes against Seattle's defense. It's a funny bit. I've faded the Eagles, I think, in the last four weeks. Love in Tampa Bay minus six and a half tonight. We're recording on Thursday, so I'm buying the scenes there for it. Yeah, we'll see if that worked out. That's fair.

You know what? That's fine. I get it. I definitely wasn't pandering to my audience here, which is my fault. My fault. You never know. You do your flying.

solo on this one. Good luck. You'll be texting yourself. I don't know what that is. Yeah. We just don't have a name for that. Okay, sharks, my last bed here, my last over under. I like Dak Prescott under 273 and a half passing yards this week versus New England. Dak has thrown for under 270 yards in three of five games this year. He's actually thrown for less than 238 yards in three of five games this year. They've been leaning on the run a lot, Dallas has, and it's been working. They've been winning. And they look really great. They put up 36 points against Carolina and 41 versus the Eagles. through the ball 22 and 26 times in those games. The Patriots have been really good against the past.

They've allowed the six fewest yards to opposing quarterbacks. They limit big plays. I think this game might hit the under. I think the total's around 51 right now. I just think the Cowboys are going to continue to play this balanced offense. They're in Foxborough on the road. I like Dak under 273. Yeah, with you on this one.

The Patriots are the takeaway what you do well defense, right? Like, that's kind of how they always are. We've seen Prescott just be so, so, so good. so far this year, finding intermediate windows. It's always been his strength. He's such a good field reader. He's such a good processor. Patriots are playing a lot of drop bait.

They're playing a lot of rush three, a lot of drop zone, a lot of put a roof on top of you sort of a defense. They're allowing most of their targets, most of their receptions right now to running backs disproportionately, right? Guys behind the line of Skirm in the quick game. So I like Pollard and Zique in terms of their receiving performance and the rushing yard performance. I think the Cowboys can move the pageants off the defensive line, excuse me, off the ball.

All of this takes away from press. Scott really airing it out. So I think Prescott plays a good game, but in that he plays a good game, he doesn't really push the ball downfield too much. This makes a lot of sense to me. Yeah, I like this one too, actually. I think that they're going to be leading.

I think they're going to, so that game script makes sense. They are actually the fifth and heaviest, sorry, the fifth run heaviest team, fifth most run heavy team. I don't know how the hell he said. There you go. Fifth most run heavy team in the NFL, according to PFF stats,

28th in the past, which is weird because, like, you know, we didn't think necessarily they were going to keep up the torrid pace of passing that we saw last year. But, like, that is very dramatically different than what I think fantasy people were hoping for. So this is a smart one.

I like this one a lot. I'm in. Let's do it. We've got a group test then. All right. Yeah, there's my strongest one. This one I say for last. This is my favorite prop so far this week.

Justin Jefferson and the Minnesota Vikings are visiting the Carolina Panthers. It was a game that opened Panthers minus one. Small favorites. Minnesota right now minus two. So a small favorite, but the line crossing over to favor another team. is pretty significant. And that's the thing is. Minnesota's a hard team to figure out.

They're a hard team to bet. They were a field goal away from beating the undefeated Cardinals, and they were a field goal away from losing to the windless lions. So betting them on a large scale is tough. What you can rely on is that Justin Jefferson's doggone good.

Right now, his over, under for receiving yards is set at 76.5. It's a hefty number. I generally like to take those big wide receiver one numbers and go under them. But Carolina right now is

32nd by DVOA against wide receiver ones this year. This defense has been amazing. They're really bad against wide receiver ones. And it's because even when they had J.C. Horn, they were asking a rookie to man up in those situations. You can pick on that guy. Now, without J.C. Horn, Stefan Gilmore, not yet available.

This is a game where it's going to be like A.J. Bouillet or Dante Jackson in-man coverage of Rajas and Jefferson. That's a huge Jefferson advantage. He's averaging 92.4 yards for game this season. That's a little bit of a misnomer because he's had two very, very high, 120, hundred, hundred, 30-yard receiving games. But still, he's gotten, I want to say, at least, seven targets in each of the games he's played so far this season. Again, we expect neutral

game script throughout. Dalvin Cook absent may push them into a slightly heavier passing game script than we've seen when Dalvin Cook is available. We saw that in previous weeks when Alexander Madison is playing. They're happy to run him, but they do pass it a little bit more than they would if Dalvin Cook was back there. Your major concern is that he is an ankle injury. He didn't practice on Wednesday. He told reporters on Wednesday, I'm going to get a limited practicing on Thursday, and then I'm going to play on Sunday. Then he didn't practice on Thursday. So he still said he's going to play. And I would imagine that, you know, he has some input there. So worst case scenario, he doesn't play and you don't get this, this bet just pushes.

You get the money back. But Adam Thielen's also banged up and also hasn't played practice Wednesday and Thursday. So best case scenario, there's no Thielen. And if there's no feeling, Jefferson's going to get 15 targets because that's all they got at wide receiver. So this is a spot where, yes, you're running a little bit of a risk of a gimpy Justin Jefferson, but the upside here is tremendous. If you get him out there with no feeling, then it's going to be very hard for him not to hit this total. Jefferson's one of those receivers that's like,

he's cool because he has a lot of utility in the short and intermediate area because he can get off the line. He's really shifty. Like he can juke a, like, a corner out of his socks or whatever, but he's also a big play threat down the field, like wins and jump ball situations. So you can bank on like one or two big plays a game it feels like from this guy. 76 feels high, honestly,

but Jefferson's that good that I'm in on this one too. I like what you're saying about just like the game script and everything. I think it could come down to that. I don't think, you know, I think that Carolina's defense has not been exposed necessarily, but obviously they're not as good as we thought like they were early in the season where it was just like they're beating up on really bad teams. Like I think that the Vikings offense is actually really good,

at least when they're full strength. So yeah, I'm in on this. I kind of like this. I kind of feel like this could be a high-scoring game and like a high pass-rate game. So, yeah, I'm in. The Vikings have been close in the fourth quarter in every single game they've played this year

except for one, which was the Seahawks game, sorry, Danny. And in that game, he had 118 receiving yards. So, like, even if he's close, he's still going to be getting targeted in the fourth quarter more likely than not. This is like a funnel pass offense, too. Like, there's, you know,

it's either going to be him or Thielen. And he's even started to separate himself from Thielen. Yeah. At the start of the season, it was everyone was hot on Thieland. he was catching all those touchdowns, but I mean, Jefferson sees 7% more targets than Thielen on the season, which is pretty significant, actually.

So I like this one. What was it, 76 and a half? Yeah, it's a group chat. Look at that. Hell yeah, I did it. You got a lot of these. Okay, here, before we let Ben go from our shark tank, we're going to do our long shot specials.

D.K., what you got? You guys have all these parlays. I'm just doing, I've yet to, like, do any of these parlays. I'm just going Mark Andrew's first touchdown score in the Chargers Ravens game. I'm going with the hot hand approach here. He's just playing, like, he's super confident, feeling good.

Lamar's like, you know, feeling it. This is a vibes bet. This is a vibes bet. It's like, you know, like in NBA Jam when like he's on fire thing, like, I think there were, you know, look, hey, Lamar Jackson didn't play on Thursday, or he didn't practice on Thursday.

Don't know what's going on with that. So, you know, who knows. So, vibes. I'm still going with the vibes from the last game because that's really what matters. I think that he's probably going to play again. This is Thursday afternoon, so we don't exactly know what's going on. But, yeah, ride the hot hand.

Also, the chargers have been bad against tight ends, opposing tight ends this year for whatever reason. They've given up a league worst four touchdowns opposing tight ends. Their third in yards allowed to tight ends. And I think just Lamar trusts him. We don't want to have any of these near the five-yard line fumbles from Lamar. Like, they're going to get that cleaned up. They're just going to pass the ball. Mark Andrew's first touchdown.

It's plus 850. Luckily, Ben, we don't have to say whether we're in or out on these because they're long shots, so we can just let that one sit there, you know? I appreciate the logic. He had two touchdowns plus vibes. However, pretty good. Yeah, first touchdown odds are the worst thing in the entire world. Yeah.

They're so stressful and so irritating. The only reason I do it, literally I just picture, like, being in a bar and I want to, like, have fun the first drive. Right. Or, like, the first, like, few possessions and not have to wait the entire game for, like, my bets to play out. So, like, this is why I do these. Yeah, that is the nice thing about them is that you don't have to stress, stress them for as long, which is a great relief. And then you can panic and tilt and make another bet after that one failed. Very true.

Always setting yourself up to tilt. Very important part of that thing. Okay. All right. My long shot, I got a Texans cult, same game, parlay, baby. Here's what I'm doing. I'm doing Davis Mills over 270 and a half passing yard. Speaking of a hot hand. Speaking of a hot hand, okay, Davis Mills, he's started three games. He's played the Panthers, the Bills, and the Patriots. Not the easiest start. Now he gets up by the Colts who are a bottom, bottom tier past defense. I'm parlaying that with Brandon Cook's over 66.5 receiving yards.

He had a slow week against New England. But like Ben said, New England takes away what you're good at. They took away Brandon Cooks, who is literally the only good player on the Texans. He's still averaging 78 yards a game receiving Brandon Cook says, still sees a third of the team's target. So I'm going over 66 yards for him. and then I'm going Carson Wentz over 233 and a half passing rights.

I learned on the Wednesday ringer gambling show with Ben and Warren Sharp that the Texans have not blitz a single time on third down this year, which is like usually a great way to stop Carson Wentz. This game has kind of a low total. I think it's going to go over. And Wentz has gone over 233 passing yards

in three of five games this year. I think he's a little bit healthier now, too. He looked pretty good last week. So if you put all those three together, Mills, passing yards, cooks receiving yards, whence passing yards, it's plus 320. A little over 3 to 1. This is fun.

Dude, so building same game parlays is a lot of fun. And one of the best things about it is that it's a good exercise in figuring out game script. And like, how will something work in the event that it happens, right? So for me, like when I have a feeling on an underdog, like I had a big same game parlay on the Niners over the Cardinals last week. And if the Niners hadn't gone one for five on a fourth down, we would have been freaking close. I missed on Elijah Mitchell's rushing yards by five, and he had it. He went over and then I got called back for a hold, and I had a spiritual experience. But anyway, this week, that's the Packers and the Bears for me.

The Bears right now are five and a half point dogs. I think that's too much. The Bears' defense has been legitimately solid over the last few weeks. Now, they've had Cincinnati and Cleveland and Detroit, and some teams that are not as concerned about on the offensive side of the football, but this is the style of defense that we proliferating across the league. Sean DeSye is a Vic Fangio disciple. And it has pissed off Aaron Rogers before.

Like when Rogers was having those bad games against the Bears, that was Vic Fangio coach defense. Sean DeSci was a defense coordinator. Or was the defensive backs coach, excuse me. Like they knew what they were doing in terms of what they were taken away with Rogers. And right now with Marcus Baldus Scantling out, with the offensive line banged up, it's a good matchup for the Bears. So if you like, Bears plus five and a half and under 44.5 points,

because if you think that the underdog's going to be able to cover, usually that means you're coming in underneath that total. You can build out a parlay off of those ideas. So right now you can't find player props as we're recording because the Daryl Williams, the COVID news that we brought up at the top of the show. But Justin Fields rushing our props in most places around 13.5, the over makes a lot of sense because of how often he boots out, how often he scrambles on third down.

Devante Adams right now receiving yard totals placed at 98.5. That is extremely high. And yes, Devante gets funneled targets. And yes, Devante is a very good receiver. But second year corner, Jalen Johnson, can legit play a 21.7% forced-te completion rate, which is tied for fourth, 90.6th grade in single coverage, tied for fifth. Those numbers are from PFF Brad. Brad is a Bears fan. So take the under on 98.5. And then if you are a fan of, I think it was Craig's bet with Aaron Jones.

You want to toss that on there as well? Yeah, okay. Craig and Aaron Jones, over 53 and a half. You can make this at about plus 230 plus 240. So I like Bears, same game parles. I like plus five and a half of the Bears. under 44.5. I like Justin Fields over rushing yards.

Devante Adams under receiving yards. This is, yeah. It's a great way to use Fandall. Same game parlay. You can get this bet in. You can get my Texans Colts one in and definitely, definitely win some money. Yeah, and also Mark Andrews

first touchdown plus 850. Yeah, I love it. Vives bet. Send it, baby. All right, there you go. Ben, you entered this podcast, a minnow and you left a shark. So congrats.

Feels good. I'd like to be one of those goblin sharks with the weird jaws. You know what I'm talking about? Like the freaky ones live in the dark. That's my... No, I don't. Still the wrong thing. I'm on Shark Week and not Shark Tank.

Craig, it kind of feels a little bit like he's the shark and we think we're sharks because he's actually on the ringer gambling show. If you saw my spreadsheet this year, you wouldn't think I was too much of a shark, unfortunately. But we'll be all right. We'll do it. We'll announce how Ben did on next week's show and we'll see if he's a shark. Yeah, there we go. If it's good, announce mine.

If it's bad, announce them as if they were hyphidses and just be completely perplexed when he claims he wasn't on last week's show. Like, no, this is what you said, man. 100% we will do that. Sounds good. All right, thanks, Ben. Thank you, Ben.

Of course, fellas, y'all be going. All right, let's get to the bad quarterback league. You can play against us on Fandall. Fandle.com slash bad QB. It's fun. You can bet on bad quarterbacks and they win you money. So this week, going through Tier 1,

the worst quarterbacks, we got Mike Glennon or Daniel Jones. first the Rams. We got Davis Mills against Indianapolis. Gino Smith against Pittsburgh and Justin Fields against the Packers. D.K., who you like. So this is tough because, obviously, I think the obvious one would be Gino Smith, since he's a backup going up against Pittsburgh's pretty solid front.

However, I just, man, number one, I kind of just hope Daniel Jones doesn't play. But if he is, he's according, like, it's Thursday. He's on track, apparently, to play. He was a limited participant coming off of a concussion in practice. so it looks like he's tracking towards playing. However, he gets to play the Rams in Aaron Donald this week, which seems like the least ideal thing that you could possibly do for a young quarterback coming off of a concussion.

So, you know, ultimately, I'm just, this is a choosing which defense to go against bet, and I'm going with Daniel Jones against Rams. I'm going to go with Gino. I feel like you can't go wrong betting against Gino Smith. He hasn't played in like four years, and he's going up against T.J. Watt. In Pittsburgh.

Yeah, speaking of props, there was a Gino Smith, over under on interceptions. I think it was 0.5, so basically you just need to throw one pick to hit the over. And I was like, that seems like a pretty easy one. Was it pulpy? Was it a lot of pullp on it? I'll try to pull it up, but when we go ahead and I'll pick it up when I find it.

All right. So, for tier two, we have Big Ben versus Seattle, golf against the Bengals, Burrow against the Lions, and then Carson Wentz against Houston. Who do you like out of that one? So it's actually kind of tough. Shoot, who did I have? I got, oh, I have

Carson Wentz. How dare you? I've been my same game parlay? I know. This one is kind of tough, actually, because I don't think anyone here is obvious, and there's really not, like, a dominant defense in this group that you're talking about. So I'm just going with Wentz, basically, because here's the thing. We bought into the whole Wentz thing before when he has, like, a hot game or, like,

a couple of hot games together, blah, blah, blah. Like, he threw for over 400 yards as, it was, like, one of his better games. Maybe it was his career, honestly, last week. I don't think that's who Wence is. I think I'm betting on him kind of like turning back into a pumpkin this week. And he's still the guy that fumbles a ton and takes a lot of sacks. So I'm just banking on a fumble or two here against Houston,

even though I know that Houston's defense isn't anything special. I'm going to go with Gough because the Bengals' defense has secretly been pretty good. And Gough, if you look at, if you go into the bad quarterback league, you can click his name and see how he's been scoring. Gough has just been really kind of consistently average, which is nice. All I want is for him not to explode. and I don't think you will. I could see Big Ben throwing for 300 yards.

I could see Joe Burrow throwing for 300 yards. Even whence against Houston. Gough, I'm just like, man, he seems like a lock for 230, 240 yards, touchdown and a pick. Yeah. It's safe. 100%.

So you were right. It is pretty pulpy with the Gino Smith over. 0.5 interceptions. It's negative 200. Oh, okay. Minus 200, I should say. All right. Tier 3, Mac Jones.

Yeah, Mac Jones versus Dallas Darnold versus Minnesota Heineke against the Chiefs, Derek Carr against the Denver Broncos and Teddy Bridgewater versus the Raiders. Shit, this is a tough one too. I went with Derek Carr, ultimately because I think

I have the most faith in the Broncos defense in this group here. This is probably not like a great strategy for me, but like I'm really just going with the defenses here. And I think that Derek Carr, with a new offensive play caller, always this chance that they could go off the rails. I know that I talked about earlier that it's

going to be maybe like a past heavy closer game than we think. But I still think, you know, with Gruden gone and a new offensive play call or new system, it could just kind of go off the rails for him. And so, yeah, that's why I'm with Carr. But I think there's some, I think Darnold is a pretty good one here too, though. That's what I'm going with. Donald's been really bad without McCaffrey. McAfree didn't practice on Thursday. Doesn't look like he's going to play again this week. They're playing Minnesota. Darnold, yeah, in bad game scripts this year, Darnold has been pretty bad. This is like a famous thing after I think

three weeks. They hadn't been trailing by at any point in any of the games. And then as soon as they start playing better teams where they're trailing, they're having to come back. They're basically leaning on Darnold to lead a comeback. Like that is not a recipe for success for them. He throws too many picks. That's what he's done his whole career. So yeah, I like the

Darnold one too. Okay, tier four. Only three quarterbacks. Baker, because remember, we got buys now, so it's getting small. Baker against the Cardinals, Kirk Cousins against Carolina and Matt Stafford against the Giants. I think I'm going to Baker here. I am too. Actually, I think so number one, it just

makes sense, I think. Like, Baker's the least prolific passer of this group. But also, I was looking at the weather report. It's supposed to be like 20 mile an hour winds on Sunday in Cleveland. Remember last year when there was just like this period of time where it was like, Gale Force wins for like a full

month every time they played in Cleveland? I don't know if it's going to be that big of deal. But yeah, it's supposed to be, as of now, this is Thursday afternoon. I saw 20 mile an hour wins in Cleveland this weekend. So that could be a factor. And they could end up just running the ball a lot. Okay. Tier 5 here, we got Aaron Rogers against the Bears, Lamar against the Chargers, and Herbert against the Ravens. I'm not betting against Herbert, especially after seeing what Wentz just did to Baltimore. To, uh, Baltimore. God, based, you know, after talking with Ben and what, how he feels about this Chicago game, I think I'm going to go with Rogers. I did too. That's

what I had. Yeah, I mean, they're a good defense. I think they're solid. And, you know, I think they're, at their, at their core, I still think that the, the Packers want to, like, run the ball and be balanced and, like, you know, smash mouth and all that. Like, they're not going to necessarily lean on Rogers to throw the ball a ton in this game, especially against a rookie quarterback.

This is going to be a game, I think, where both teams are trying to shorten the game. And it's going to be, like, a low-scoring slog with not much passing and not many points. Of course, I'm saying that now, it's probably going to be like 60 to 50, but whatever. That's how it looks on paper. All right. Final tier here. These are the best guys. Dak against New England, Mahomes against Washington, and Kyler against the Browns.

Are you going to go Kyler just because of the weather? And he's kind of got a shoulder thing? Yeah, I went Kyler. Like he said, because of the weather, he's got a shoulder thing. Also, there's a COVID outbreak, apparently, with the cardals right now. So he could end up losing a couple of his skill players. So there's a lot of question marks around there. I'm never going to bet against Mahomes.

I don't think even if there. The team has been struggling and he's been throwing picks. So yeah, Kyler is my pick here. Yeah, especially with Mahomes playing Washington. Yeah, I'm going to go with Kyler as well. So that makes my lineup, Gino Smith, Jared Goff, Darnold, Baker, Aaron Rogers, and Kyler. All right, and I got... Hold on, I got pull it up here.

Lost it. Lost it. All right, I got Daniel Jones, Carson Wentz, Derrick Carr, Baker-Mayfield, Aaron Rogers and Kyler, Murray. This is my week. I feel good about this one. I won money two weeks ago. I need to get back out of it.

This one feels good. We had the same final three guys, so hopefully we made the right decisions. Yeah, yeah. All right. So, by the way, our tally on the props, we're still doing well as a show. We're 58%.

It's still pretty good. High Fitz is definitely holding up his end of the bargain here. I'm the caboose. I'm trailing, you guys, but that's all right. It's all right, though. You know, it's all about as a show. If you followed us as a show blindly, we are doing well.

You'll make you money. All right, I wanted to get to one fantasy court here Before we get out of here This is from P jabber This is a person's name, P jabber P jabber P jabber P jabs, okay

He says Similar to the rich eyes and trade mentioned last podcast In my family league a couple years back At peak Antonio Brown Steelers years My cousin dropped Antonio Brown Intending to drop kicker Josh Brown My uncle on a different team

added Antonio Brown from waivers And was adamant that this was fair Clearly an accident, our league held court in a group message to vote on the outcome and ultimately decided to re-add Antonio Brown to the cousins team. My uncle, who added Antonio Brown, was so mad that in protest he benched his entire team for the rest of the year. Keep in mind that draft order is based on the reverse order of how the league finishes the year before. So 12th place gets first pick. What are your guys' views on both tanking and accidental drops? So we talked about this last week, I believe, or whatever, a couple episodes ago.

I believe as a commish, it should be the spirit of what happened, not the technicality of what happened. So if you accidentally drop Antonio Brown, peak Antonio Brown, and you tell the commission, I think the commission should just add him back to your team because it was clearly a mistake. This is not like a strategy thing where you're dropping Antonio Brown for a kicker or whatever. Like, it was just clearly a mistake. So that's how I commission my leagues. Like if it was an honest mistake, I fix that mistake because, you know, you can fat, finger stuff. You can accidentally hit the wrong button, whatever. You can read it wrong. Also, by the way, why do so many fricking fantasy platforms just list the initial? Is there something

wrong with listing the entire name somewhere? Like, I just don't understand that. I guess it's making it like easier to read on mobile or something like that, but like... Yeah, I think it's so it doesn't cluster up the screen. Just like put the entire fucking name. Because it always confuses me. So, especially with a guy like last name Brown. Like, there's so many Brown. So I would say that is how I feel. That's where I would rule as a commission. That's how I do it. You know, because whatever, it's like... Yeah, this isn't the SATs. Yeah, like, who cares about that? Like, this should be like this, like, it should be fun for people. And it's along the same lines. Like, if you're tanking, like, just get... Yeah, that's what we...

Kick him out of the league. Like, we haven't talked about tank. He's his uncle. He's going to kick out his uncle? I don't know. It's a family league. That is like a infantile, like, a infantile, like, Like, sorry, juvenile. Like, he's throwing a hissy fit. This is like something my two-year-old would do. Like, you know what, though? Grow up, Peter Pan. I do agree, grow up.

We've never talked about tanking, though, and if we, like, think it's okay. At first, I was like, that shouldn't be allowed. You should be forced to compete in some way. But then again, a lot of sports tank. And, like, if this guy wants to bow out and give me a now 1-11 chance of winning the title this year instead of a 1-12 chance, like, fine, cool.

he gets Christian McCaffrey next year I don't give a shit like that doesn't ensure he's going to win or anything next year if he wants to be that guy and be a baby

I'll take a free win when I play him Okay I think What are you going to do making? I think generally speaking like I think

if there are rules pre-established in your league against tanking then that's your answer you can't do that however in this case like if there was no

official rule or whatever then yeah you'll just have to basically be like what you said, Craig. Like, you're taking out, you're actually increasing the other people's odds of winning. Fine by me.

Because like at the end of the day, look, you have a one in 12 chance or one in 10 out, depending on your league, of winning the league. And they're just basically taking one giant variable out of it. So I would say if there is a pre,

you know, agreed upon rule against taking, tanking, in some of my leagues, like in the league I commish, there's just, you can't tank. It's part of the rule.

And we have our whole playoff set up, put together against tanking. So you have to actually play for the first pick the next year in this dynasty league that I'm in. So it basically makes you continue to set your lineups correctly throughout the rest of the rest of the season. And if someone,

we actually had this happen last week, if someone sets like a really shitty lineup and like benches all their like good players for shitty players, I just go in and pick a lineup based on what I... What? Wow. Yeah, because this is an already established rule that everyone knows. And so if people are trying to like skirt that, This does only happen like twice.

It's not like a big thing. Yeah. But anyways, but I think, like I said, if there was a rule, then you have to like enforce that rule. If there was no rule, then I guess like whatever. You just go with it. It already takes so much luck to win a championship one year that if you want to take a year off

because you're pissed, fine by me. Like, sure. You can put it to next season. I have no problem with that. Also, you should never base your draft order on the reverse order thing. I like that. I'm not a fan of that.

The next year. You like just random? I like random. Or like do some type of fun competition that doesn't have to do with fantasy football, something where everybody has an equal shot. Even picking out of a hat,

I just like that more than the guy who got 12th gets first. Because then it becomes a tank battle at the end of the season. That's so fun for anyone, I feel like. Yeah. Yeah.

Yeah. We do the picking names out of a hat thing in the Ringer League. David, David Lara is our commission. He actually records himself picking names out of a hat. So it's kind of fun.

Yeah. I'm a fan. of that. All right. Well, that will do it. I'm trying to remember. What is all the things high if it does in the end of the episode? He says, thank you, Craig. Thank you Danny. Thank you, Ben Solac, who's not here. Thank you, the ghost, the podcast, Ghost of Ben Solac for coming on today and imparting your wisdom on us. What else we got? Thank you, sharks. We talked a lot about sharks. Thank you, hammerheads. Thank you, Shark Tank, the show for being a good show. Thank you, Mark Cuban. Thank you, Lorne.

Thank you, Slay Bells. Slay Bells. Yeah. I wait, what is Slay Bells? It's a band. Are they Christmas music or no? No. So there's a famous song.

Real Real is a good song. Also, Crown on the ground, I think it's called. It was popular a few years ago in movie trailers. You'll recognize the intro. It's like music. It's really discordant and loud and cool and like gets you jacked up. By the way, as long as we're talking about it, if I was a professional baseball player

and I had to choose my own walk-up Walk-up song. Crown on the ground. Is it crown to the ground or crown on the ground? Hold on, I'm going to look this up. I think it's crown on the ground. Crown on the ground by slave elves would be my jam. If I were, if I had my choice of a walk-up song,

I would sell out and read an ad as I walked up and make money. Like me-undies? Then you like pull up your like jersey and show your me-undies. It's my voice being like, today's at bat is brought to you by Miandis. I love Miandis, and I bet 345 in them. Manscaped. There's no worse feeling than being a little too uncut before a baseball game.

That's why I like manscated. Oh, God. I mean, this is like where we're going in the world, so that's fine. Very true. Okay, we will see everybody on Sunday.