The Ringer NFL Show - ‘Shark Tank’ Prop Bets - Week 7

Episode Date: October 22, 2021

We pitch one another on our favorite prop bets for the weekend’s games in the style of ‘Shark Tank.’ Later, we offer up our favorite long-shot bets, including our new moonshot bet of the week. Finally, we give our Bad QB League picks for Week 7. Prop Bets (5:39) Long-Shot Bets (44:22) Bad QB League (51:11) Sign up and compete against us in the Bad QB League on FanDuel here.  Email us at [e-mail]. Hosts: Danny Heifetz, Danny Kelly, Craig Horlbeck Producer: Craig Horlbeck Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, it's Danny Hyfitz. Before we start the show today, I want to you let you know, there's a new Spotify feature. On the show page, there's a bell. You can hit the bell, and you're going to get automatically notified as soon as our new episodes are out there.

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and then all the podcasts that you follow are in a new, nice, like chronological feed. so it's easier to use. So there's a bell on the homepage. You can hit that, see all your pods, and you can hit the bell on our show page, right where it says Ringer Fantasy Football, hit the bell, and you can follow us.

All right, let's get to the show. Welcome to the Ringer Fantasy Football Show. My name is Danny Heifitz. I am joined by Danny Kelly and Craig Coralbeck. It is Friday. We are watching it. You're listening to this on Friday. We're going through Prop Mets,

Shark Tank style, but first, we got to discuss the bipocalypse real quick. I mean, there's six teams on by. I mean, look, It's bills, chargers, Steelers, Cowboys, Vikings. It's a disaster. There's like basically 20 really good fantasy players on by, not to mention everyone's hurt.

This is, I mean, Matthew Berry said this week that in 23 years of covering fantasy professionally into the worst bi-week he's ever seen, I feel like forget who to play. It's like, we, don't we, all three of us, I think, have a situation where you might have to start an empty slot or cut a good player? I'm starting to empty, dire straits.

Dyer Straits. If Gronkowski doesn't play this week, which it doesn't look like he's going to, I'm starting two empty spots. So who is the person you would cut to have to fill an empty spot? I would have to cut Michael Gallup and either Gronk or Schultz.

I don't think I'm going to cut out any of them. Jeez. I feel like, I don't know what D.K. thinks. I'm so torn about this, because in one hand, it's like, it's one spot, whatever. I'm part of, part of me is like, fuck Michael Gallup. You got to go get a win.

Jesus. What are you holding on a Michael Gallup for to get you a win? This is his moment. But here's my question. So like replacement level player, right, who I add off the waiver wire, he's going to get me seven, eight points.

Like, is losing Michael Gallup forever worth seven points? I don't think so. I don't think he is. I mean, if Amari Cooper gets hurt, which he's hurt every day, like Michael Gallup becomes like a legitimate, real-time option, and you want to win the war,

not the battle. Plus, the team I'm going up against is also decimated by buys. So I feel like, okay, I don't have the seven points that this replacement guy would get me, I still might win, I don't know. So I want to mention something, and it's hilarious that you said the word, you literally just said it, he's decimated. Do you know where the term, I'm putting on my dad cap right now.

Do you know where the term decimated comes from? No. One out of ten. In the old, like Roman armies, so like in the old, you know, like legions or whatever, if the army was getting unruly, acting up, like mutinous, they would decimate their own units which in other words, the commanders would like tell one of their leaders

they'd have to like choose one guy to kill and they kill one out of ten guys and based on how many ever units and it was like basically like to keep them in line and keep them from being unruly. In this case, you're potentially having to kill one of your own guys to keep the team going

or you can just start a zero. It's kind of like decimation. Holy shit, that was dark. Yeah, sorry. Oh my gosh. God. It's like a really extreme version of putting one of your children on timeout. You just kill one of your surgeons.

Those are the same thing at all. I said it's like, clearly doesn't have children. Here's how it. No, it's like, it's like Egypt and like they're like, kill the first board.

That's what that's like. Craig, here's how it applies. In this case, I think if you're starting a zero, if you're starting an empty roster spot, yeah, you're doing it for the good of the army to keep your team together.

Yes. You're going to take that zero and you're just going to go with it. It's like killing one of your own guys. I think that's the exact. exact opposite. Not really. That would be releasing Michael Gallup. Well, either way that you want to look at it, I think it's fine. I get Craig's point about winning the war, not the battle, but like, you also want to win.

Like, you want to win and the record helps you get the buy in the playoffs and all those things. Like, I don't know. I'm not, this is very tricky and everyone should do its best for their own team. But I totally think, if you think you have a better chance to win this week, racking up a win is racking up a win. They all matter. I also like, I also think that, Because most teams in the league are decimated this week. So like... But that is only more reason why one marginal waiver player could be the difference between winning and losing.

But this is a league where you can make the playoffs by having high scoring points. And I know you'd be like, well, then that's why you need to start the extra guy. But every team is going to be low scoring this week. I feel like it's going to be a wash across the board. And that keeping the better player long term is the more prudent decision, honestly.

Can you make a trade? I've tried. Nobody wants to. No one actually cares about Craig's team. Let's be clear here. We're trying to help the masses. I don't care about Greg specifically. Okay.

Yeah, so we probably, this is what we're going to be doing green room on Sunday at noon Eastern. Probably will be the worst start sit we've ever got like the actual things we're getting thrown at will probably be the most disparate, disgusting starts sick questions that we've ever gotten. But you can download the green room app by Spotify and join that room for us on noon Eastern on Sunday. But want to get to the prop bets?

Let's do it. Okay, let's get to Shark Tank. If you don't know how this works, it's, Really simple. It's like Shark Tank, the show, pitching us on bets. So we're the sharks. We're the investors. We're the Mark Cubans, the Mr. Wonderful's.

I should learn who the other people on Shark Tank are by name, but I really can't remember anyone. We've been doing this six weeks now. Yeah. TK., what is your first prop bet for this week? All right, sharks. Look, my family, it's starving. I need your guys' investment on Matt Stafford under 32.

32.5 pass attempts this week against the Lions. here's the deal. The Rams, they are 15 and a half point favorites. It is looking like it's going to be a blowout. This is one of the best teams in the NFL versus one of the worst, if not the worst team in the NFL. It's, we got a low-key revenge game narrative going on here with Matt Stafford. This is the highest key revenge game after Brady and the Patriots. Yes. And so obviously, I think that they're going to pass early and often. I think they're going to be explosive. I saw this per Hayden Winks. The Rams have the best EPA per dropback on offense in the NFL and the RAM. And the Lions have the worst EPA per dropout per drop back. I think this could be like a first half blowout type game. And then basically from there, the Rams will just try and shorten the game, run a bunch, basically just try and get out of there without getting hurt, blah, blah, blah. But at the end of the day, I think they're going to start hot and get a big lead.

And then he's not going to have to pass a ton. In the Rams, two blowout wins this season, he's had, so he had 26 attempts in a 34 to 14 win over Chicago. He threw 28 times in a 38 to 11 win over the Giants. They're so efficient and so explosive. He's not going to have to dink and dunk down the field like, you know, you see some teams do. So that's why I looked at this pass a time and I just think it's going to be, I think he's going to hit the under because I don't think they're going to have to pass a time in the second half. What do you think?

I still can't believe you said that it was low-key when the two quarterbacks in this game were traded for each other this year. Okay. Well, get past that. I wanted to ask, Jared Gough is the one who should be, I mean, like Stafford, I mean, is it revenge for Stafford against the Lions? I mean, I guess, like, they didn't surround him with the necessary talent. But, like, I don't know, the second he asked for a trade, Brad Holmes, the GM, who was formerly with the Rams, he's like, sure, go to the Rams.

And then he did, and now he's having a great, like, I don't know. And they traded him to a good team, too. Is Matt Stafford, like, in search of revenge? I get that Goff would be. It's worse out of Jared Goff has literally never won an NFL game without Sean McVeigh as his head coach. And now facing Sean McVeigh is kind of like a miniature referendum on Jared Goff's career. But I also think McVey kind of wants to be.

this team for that reason. Didn't Jared Gough win games with Jeff Fisher? No, I don't think he won a single game with Jeff Fisher. Not as a starter. Not as a starter. Not as a starter. Not as a starter. Jared Gough has not won a game

without Sean McVeigh. Craig just laughs. Fun fact, I'm going to be at this game. Oh, nice. Yeah. Okay, so Mr. I'm getting tickets, you know, courtesy of, you know, just being boys with Sean McVeigh.

What do you think, Craig? First of all, I'm not saying that's how I got tickets. So second of all, this is too close for me I don't know 32 seems just right in the wheelhouse of what's standard for Matt Stafford I don't feel like

when I saw this line I wasn't like this is great value seems a little bit dicey the lions have been a team in the past that's kept things frisky Matt McVeigh is not the type of guy to ease off the gas so I think I'm out on this

unfortunately so my issue with this is that it's personal you know what I mean like there is a personal element and I wonder genuinely about the Rams my only concern is do we think the Rams let off the gas

well again I guess I don't see that why would McVe like McVe is the guy who broke up with the girlfriend who he didn't like who he feel like he wasn't getting enough from and then found a way better girlfriend and is now going to go show

the first girlfriend look how good I got it now is that what we're expecting how to McVeigh here so I think so Craig you're actually I feel like strengthening my argument. So you're saying it's not much of a revenge game for Stafford, which only strengthens the argument that he's not going to have to pour it on in the second half. I just think

the Rams are going to be the Rams and they're just going to play how they play normally. So I just think 32 is like a little close for me. I don't know. I understand, yeah, and I get that. That's fine. You don't have to be in on this. However, I would say the Rams have been reasonably run balanced when leading. 40% early down run sorry down, 40%

early down pass rate this year when leading by 8 plus. So they pass 40% of the time, runs 60% of the time when leading by 8 plus. So it's not like there's still, like, in the converse of that is like the Buccaneers who just pass, pass, pass, pass, despite whether they're winning or losing. And even if they're like blowing a team out, they're still going to continue passing. Like the Rams have actually been like sort of in the middle of the league.

They're not slow necessarily. They don't slow it down to a slog. But they have been sort of middle of the pack in terms of that area. So that was another one of the reasons where I'm just like, I don't see them just continuing to, like, pour it on in the second half. They didn't do that against Chicago. They didn't do that against the Giants, 26 and 28 attempts. So I see what you're saying, how it's kind of close.

But I just think this is the type of game where, especially with the offensive line versus defensive line matchup, mismatch that they have against a bad Lions team, they're just going to pound Darrell Henderson all game long, and it's going to be fine. They'll just want to get out of there and not have any more injuries. So what I like about this is at the court, like, look, This is a 15 point spread. Betting the under on past attempts in a 15 point spread when it's 32. As Craig said, this is right in the ballpark.

Well, the Rams haven't been a 15 point favorite so far this season. It's right in the ballpark. For that reason, I'm in D.K. Hell yeah. Craig played the sound. And I'm going to do so. I'm going to turn this right around and say, D.K., if you're in on the Stafford under 32 and I'm in with you under past attempts,

I want you, D.K., to come in on the over with me for Daryl Henderson, rushing yards for the exact same reasoning. If we're saying the Rams going to blow them out, I think Daryl Henderson having 78 rushing yards is kind of simple. Like it's not an elaborate pitch. The Rams are really good at blocking. The Lions are not. The Rams, the Lions at the trench matchup here is as big of a, like a mismatch in the

entire week. The Rams offensive line is probably going to dominate the Lions defensive line. They're probably going to win by a lot. Daryl Henderson 78. He's messed around with that. number each the last few weeks, but I think that this is just like a very easy game for Henderson. This is a classic. Daryl Henderson gets 100 yards and the Rams win by three touchdowns. Dekha, will you come in on that with me since I just went in with you on the same game script?

You know, there's a lot of pressure there, but I will say you mentioned the disadvantage or sort of the advantage that the Rams offensive line has against the Lions defensive line. In fact, per PFF, they have the number one, like most biggest advantage over a defensive line. this week. Boom, there you go. In addition to the fact that I think that Darrow Henderson's running really well, he's really seemed to come along in terms of like fitting in that scheme and what he can do. I could see him having a few explosive plays here and there.

I think that they're going to continue to utilize him in the second half. And isn't Sony Michelle on the injury list anyway this week? I feel like they're really banged up at the running back spot this week. Like Jake Funk got hurt. They already lost a couple of other guys. Craig said, I don't remember which episode this week. Craig said, like, jokingly, it's Jake Funk time, baby. And Jake, Jake Funk, it was, came out that he tore his ACL, like, like three hours after Craig said that.

That's the third Rams running back this season, and he's cursed. The third? Who's the other one? You, uh, it was Cam Acres. It was the same day. Like, people actually found out about that while you were, while they were listening to the podcast. Yes, I'm aware. Yes. Then Xavier Jones, who you touted, it was the same day.

And then it was Jake Funk the same day. Did the Xavier Jones thing happen? I don't remember that. I think it was at least the same week. I don't even remember touting him. All right. I don't think we can blame Craig for that one. Yes, we can. Of course we're going to blame Craig.

Sure, do it. I mean, as much as I want to. Here, Sony Michelle did not practice. Craig's the Zodiac killer. Sonny Michelle didn't practice on Wednesday. I haven't seen him for Thursday yet, but he has a shoulder injury. So that is another thing.

I think they're just going to lean on Anderson in this one. So for all those reasons, I am in Hyphitz. I'm with you. Well, Hyphitz, there's no need for me to tell you whether I'm in or out because I, for the first time in our Shark Tank's history, I have the exact same bet written down here. Darrell Henderson, over 78 and a half rushing yards. Has this ever happened on Shark Tank? This is like a... I was going to say, what's the Shark Tank version of this? Is this like when they have to divest because they have the same company?

Or like, oh, we've secretly been working on the same company all along? Yeah, Cubans like, I actually already got my own guys on this. I don't know. Or is it more like, by the way, this is a Mark Cuban company? Is it two guys back-to-back pitching the same pizza delivery app? I don't know. But I have this as well So obviously I'm in We don't have a word for when two people Bring the same bet to the table We have group chat if everyone's in on one bet

If we bring the same one is it a FaceTime It needs to be more intimate For what it should be called Email ringer fancies A pariscom If we come to the same A more intimate level of communication It needs face time room

Mind meld Like when Lockett and Russell Wilson They got the mind melt Devante and Rogers How about I faceTime you When Henderson gets like around 70 yards rushing I'll FaceTime you and then we can watch it together.

We can call to FaceTime. I'm kind of, we can do better than FaceTime. When you guys were kids, did you have the thing where you could merge calls on like the landlines? I don't know. Yeah, you can still do that on a cell phone, you know. Right, but I'm talking about landlines. I feel like there's a name for those.

Maybe it's just merge calls. Anyway, never mind. Anyway, yeah, we're all in on this. So Craig, but if we're in the rushing arts, why are you not in on the Stafford under for past attempts? I'm just, I don't think I need to choose one or the other. It's too close, he thinks. I mean, Henderson has had over,

Henderson, I think it's had 78 yards or more each of the last three games, and there has been times in those last three games where actually two of those three games, Stafford has gone for more than 32 passing attempts. So both are capable of happening in the same game. All right. Well, if I robbed you of the Daryl Henderson pitch, Craig,

you give us a pitch all your own. All right, sharks. I'm coming at you. Asking for a $5 investment here, for the waiver-wire darling of the fantasy season week one, Eli Mitchell, he's back. The Niners are rested off of a buy week.

I'm asking for $5 to invest in Eli Mitchell to run for more than 62 and a half rushing yards. Sunday night versus the Colts. I get it. The Colts have a good run, D. That's fine. But the Niners have had two weeks to prepare. Shanahan has had two weeks to prepare. There is going to be serious rain and wind in this game.

The forecast is dreary, which is important. Jimmy Garoppolo will likely be starting, not Trace Sermon, which bodes very well for Eli Mitchell. The first time Eli Mitchell and Jim Midgee played together. Eli Mitchell had over 20 rushes for over 100 yards. Shanahan clearly, by example, has shown that he does not like Trace Sermon. I like that Mitchell's had two weeks to recover and get back to full health.

62 and a half seems really low in a game like this. This is one actually, Craig, that I had circled too. And I was excited that you put it on there because, yeah, I agree. You know, the sermon thing, you know, obviously our preseason expectations aside, Like, Sermon is irrelevant at this point in this backfield, right? Like, I know a lot of people are still holding on to the idea that he was the third round pick. They're going to end up using him, blah, blah, blah. But, like, there's actually not really any reason to believe that he's going to be a big part of this offense going forward.

Like, I think I saw it was like he out snapped him 40 to 2 in the last game that these two played. I think with Jimmy Garapolo starting, Trey Lance is not going to be in there. He's not going to be stealing rushing attempts, blah, blah, blah. He's going to have a good, healthy workload in this game. So for all those reasons, I'm in with you on this one. I like it. Bang. Hefitz is very thoughtful on this one.

He doesn't look convinced. He's ruminated. I can't think of a reason not to go in on this. You were trying to, though. You were trying to. I tried. I was like, yeah, okay. Cool.

Okay, great. Look at us. Group chat. Wow. We're just agreeing on everything. What a happy Friday this is. Before we get to. You're up next or is am I up next?

Do you want to go? There's no rules. We can do whatever we want. Sure. What were you going to say? Do you want to go or not? I'll go. go. Okay, you go. All right, sharks, I got one for you. I'm out. Hi, Fis, hi Fitts.

Jesus. I mean, that's fair. Hi Fitts, I want to say how you feel about this one. It's about your giants. I'm looking for, shit. I'm looking for. All right, moving on. All right, my turn. I'm trying to think of one on, like, on the fly here. No, Sterling Shepard, over 64.5 receiving guards in this game, uh, going up against wait, who are they playing this week? Carolina. Carolina, that's right. So, Sturling Shepard.

The Giants do not have Cadarius Tony most likely in this game. Saquan Barkley, not expected to come back. Kenny Golodey out indefinitely. John Ross even out? John Ross is out. Frickin Dante Pettis came in here and got 11 targets or something this last game.

It's going to be the Sterling Shepard's show, which is kind of hard to say, it turns out. I don't actually think that the Giants' offense is going to be all that great in this game. But I think just based on volume, that's why I looked at this and I said, I think he's going over. Sterling Shepherd has a 30,

he got a 30% target rate last week, so he's going to get tons of looks. He was number one in fantasy usage among all receivers last week, according to Hayden Winks's fantasy usage model. He was just getting tons of targets. He had 25%, 31% and 30% target rate in his three full games this season. And here's a key one that I like.

I saw this out on Twitter. He has a 34% target rate when his quarterback is blitz this season, which is 11th in the NFL, and the Panthers blitz a ton. They're the second highest ranked blitz team this year. 30-something percent of the time they blitz. So Surring Shepherd is Daniel Jones' outlet on those plays.

I think it's going to add up. I don't think he's necessarily due for like huge, big, like, down-the-field plays, but he just gets so many targets, so many catches, those yards are going to add up. When you look at his production, when he's been healthy this season, week one, 113 yards receiving.

Week 2, 94 yards receiving. Week 6 last week, he had 76 yards against the Rams. Yeah, I just think he's going to go over and I don't even think it's necessarily because the Giants' offense is going to be good. I just think his target rate is so absurd. He's going to be the guy that Daniel Jones is looking for

just about every time he drops back. This is another one I have trouble, I have trouble trying to argue. I mean, his target shares are ridiculous. 9, 10, and 14 in his three full games. so, you know, even if he catches like half of those, that's like five, six catches. He's kind of getting guaranteed.

I like this one, D.K., I'm in. Sweet. I'm way too close to this emotionally, but you put, look, you put Giants in over in the same sentence. Look, D.K., if you mentioned earlier, I don't remember when, you mentioned the offensive line, defensive line matchup. If you check that same chart,

I bet that the Giants, the Giants offensive line and the Panthers defensive line, me just pull it up because this is such a, this is such a crazy mismatch in this game. It is a miss. It is a mismatch here. It's basically the, the Panthers defensive line is really good. The Giants offensive line, I believe is one of the four or five worst pass block in the entire NFL. It's actually even worse than it seems because Andrew Thomas is out. The second worst? Okay. They're actually they're worse than second worst because they're second worst with Andrew Thomas, who's their left tackle.

Andrew Thomas is not playing this week. So they're actually worse than second worst. I don't want to bet on any kind of passing, receiving over in a week where I kind of think Daniel Jones is under pressure the whole week. I get what you said were, oh, Sterling Shepard's the outlet, that's cool. You know how this is the outlet? The sideline. Or like getting stripped out. That's also what Daniel Jones does under pressure. I get the appeal, but I'm out. I think I definitely understand where you're coming from, but I feel like you're doing the thing where it's like someone's got it, like, you know how you're poo-pooing the Texans because somebody has to catch passes? It really is, this is to me that somebody has to catch passes for the Giants this week.

You think they're going to have like less than 100 yards passing? I mean, maybe I'm being an irrational. It's in the realm of possibility, certainly. Perhaps I'm being an irrational Giants fan. No, I get that. I get that. That's fine. I'm glad Craig is at least on board with this one.

But yeah, let's do this, Craig. Yeah, sorry I couldn't get in on the Rams one. I just don't want to be at the game being like, stop throwing, Matt. You know, I want to be just kind of having a good time. No, you can't. If he's at the, if he's on the sideline to Sean McVeigh, since Craig's being invited to be Sean McVeigh's get-back guy. He can't be texting like,

D.K. and I be like, oh, we hope the Stafford stops throwing. And like, Craig's there and Sean sees the phone, and it's like awkward. Like, that would, he can't be in the good job. And then I'm like, Sean, and I'm so sorry, I put $5 on Matt Stafford going under. And Sean's like, ah! And Sean's like, Craig, do you think we should stop throwing? And I'm like, yeah, frankly,

do you guys get more emotionally attached to your props or to your fantasy teams going into these games? Fantasy. Okay. Just checking. I found that the prop bets, I get overly excited about, like, hitting them. And then, like, I'm counting down. You know how I was telling you guys about how I don't like to root against players during the Sunday games?

Yeah. Just because I find it, like, frustrating. I find it annoying. Like, don't pass that guy. Don't pass that guy. And it almost always is like the opposite. It always happens. This is why I have 22 teams.

This is why I'm always just, I want everybody to do well. I don't care if you do well. It's great. I found that in these prop bets, I hate it because it's like I'm actively rooting against a guy getting it. I'm actively rooting against like someone passing. Well, I have bad news, GK, because if you want to root against the guy, I have a great, great bet for you. Oh, yeah?

Sharks. Perhaps you, like me, are sick and tired of the Miami Dolphins. Sick of them. Is the Miles Gaskin roller coaster making you want to throw up? Do you lie awake at night and wonder if you'd be a happier and more fulfilled person? if Miles Gaskin could do anything, and I mean anything of value for your team. Because if so, let me tell you something.

Come with me into the land of Miles Gaskin under 33 and a half rushing yards this week. You'll be a better person for it. Come on, D.K., come on. Root against the player with me, D.K. Yeah, Gaskin is on my burnbook list, and I'm in automatically for that reason. In addition to the fact, like,

I just do not want to trust what this dolphin's offense is going to do. They clearly do not want to run the ball and or they're completely incapable of running the football. Even Gaskin's good game to season, it was mostly coming on the back of 10 catches. You know what I mean? So I kind of like this one too. What is this? It is 33 and a half. 33 and here's thing.

Miles Gacken is on the worst rushing team in the NFL. Yeah. And he's at the bottom of a three-way committee on the worst rushing team in the NFL. It's like the dolphins are a minivan. They're like a Chrysler Pacifica. Miles Gaskin's the third row of a Chrysler Pacifica. It's like the over and... is 33 yards.

And Craig's sitting here and I can see what he's going to say. Craig's going to be like, 33's not much for running back. Miles Sanders... It's not Miles Sanders. Miles Gaskin in his last three weeks has 37 yards total. This week it's 33. Oh, is it my turn now? First of all, how dare you be so presumptuous and presume what I'm going to say?

I was not going to say that. I was going to say this is a ridiculous line. 33 is so high. He had nine rushing yards on five carries last week. He had 25 the week before that. He had three the week before that. I'm in on this, Danny. Grudging way.

I haven't mentioned the best part is there's like no pulp. I believe it's even with the over under, which is kind of incredible. Good. Nice. Wow, look at us. Easy group chat. All right.

Completely lost track of the order. Who wants to go next? Just throwing it up to the wolves. I haven't gone in a while. I'll go. Yeah. All right. I was kind of hoping D.K. would go.

All right, Shark. I'm only speaking to D.K. now. This is a bit of a controversial take. You pronounced the I in controversial. Controversial. He did, didn't he? Well, I'm a classy man. Rich.

All right, listen. It's time to talk about Derek Henry. Wow. They're playing the Chiefs, and I know we've talked about... I don't like where this is going already. And I know we've talked about, Why don't we just take the over on Derek Henry every week until it doesn't work? Yeah.

We haven't bet that once yet. I don't believe. We haven't done it. We haven't done it. Okay. So his over under on rushing is like 126. But his over under on total yards is 148.5. That's so many yards.

150 yards. First of all, him having the rushing line being at 126 and the total being at 148. So that's 22 and a half rushing yards, which I think is kind of a lot for him. Anyway, his value currently, it'll never be higher. I don't think the line will ever be this high. The Chiefs have such a shitty run defense. He's been so incredible lately. I'm zagging when everyone else is zigging here.

And I would like to grab the under on 148.5 yards. I know even if this game is a shoot out, whatever, the Titans like to run to get back in it. I'm almost not even like factoring in the game or the game script. I'm just like playing the odds on a human being get 100, getting 148 and a half yards in a game and saying, I'm going to take the under. So I have, we made the joke about to get the Memento tattoos. And I wrote, so I wouldn't do the profits with you guys last week because Solac had to fill in for me. So I have been meaning to do the Henry rushing lines for two weeks in a row or three.

And I wrote down this week, take the Derek Henry over on rushing yards no matter what. Don't care what the members. Then I checked the line and it was 126. And I was like, that's so many yards. that's so many that's so many yards but that doesn't mean I want the under

though I can't bet I can't bet against Derek Henry is that what you want to be do you want to be on Sunday like rooting against Derek Henry I'm just saying I think this line is inflated that's all it's as inflated as it will ever be

he is peaking but he's going to get 170 like here's like the argument's correct he's only gone under this scrimmage yards twice this year out of six games. I understand. Okay, okay. Just checking.

I feel like this is, you know what? This intellectually, it's correct. Spiritually, it's ridiculous. Right. A computer would bet with me, probably, but humans would not, because they watch the game. I'm in. Fuck it. You're in? I'm in. I'm in. Whoa.

And like, mostly, because you know what, run me over, Derek Henry. I want to be hurt by you. You're just Micahe hiding it today. I want to feel like an idiot I feel like I can't be a part of this mostly just for like I mean like you said

it's like spiritual reasons it's like we can't all go against Derek Henry and this like that would be folly there was a point in time earlier in the season where we kind of almost talked ourselves like on a green room we almost talked ourselves into like letting a guy bench Derek Henry

and then we were like whoa we came to our senses we were like that would be stupid let's not do that start him and then he immediately went out and got 182 yards and three touchdowns. So I'm sticking with no on this one,

but I like your Hutzpah. Go for it. I'm looking at how he's hit this. Yeah. A line. He's hit this every week, basically. He said it a lot.

Holy shit. But the lines are always a bad week. He's receiving, he's doing more receiving yards lately. He's hit this four of the last five weeks. Here's what I'm saying here. I want to,

I want to lay out one more. argument for my for my rationale. So there's there's 32 teams in the league. There's like, you know, five players, fantasy relevant players on each team in terms of like who's catching passes who's getting rushes. That's 160 players each week

that play football and are kind of relevant fantasy. 160. Every week, I would bet the under that 159 of those 160 will go under 150 yards in a game. 99% of those players would never even...

But he's not Derek Henry. we just have we have made very clear that he's different than everyone else. I'm just betting that one more player will also not have. Okay, you know what? I'm changing my mind. I'm out. That's the stupidest argument I've ever heard. That is like Craig speaking like he has no fucking eyeballs.

Like what would the Craig of two weeks ago say to what you just said? Like he's one player. He's Derek Henry. He defies logic. He doesn't defy logic. What are we talking about? He's a good running back. He doesn't defy logic.

What the fuck? Am I taking Craig? crazy pills? He definitely defies logic. Why? He's big and fast and he's hard to tackle. Why does he defy logic? If Craig wasn't the editor, I would say, let's pull the clip of some shit Craig said on this podcast like three days ago where we all agreed that, you know what's crazy?

Derek Henry had 2,000 rushing yards last year and is actually on a higher clip this year. You know, I don't know. I think Adrian Peterson rushing for 2,000 yards after tearing his ACL in like week 13. That defies logic. Derek Henry just being really good again does not really defy logic to me. Derek Henry is going to lead the NFL and rushing yards for three years in a row and touchdowns and carries, which is, I don't, I believe, never been done. Uh, all right. I'm, I'm taking the under. I'm just betting that a player's not going to have 150 yards. I don't think that's

that crazy. I don't, here's the thing. You had me until you were like, it's just one other player of the, of the, of the one's 59. It's just, no, no, it's, you're betting against Derek Henry. You had me when you're like, this is the highest is over under on yardage, total yardage will be all season, because it's like everyone's hyped up on Derek Henry and everyone's going to bit the over. Yeah. That's all still very part of the argument. I'll begrudgingly be in with you. Oh, now you're back?

You're back in? Yeah, you just pissed me off. How many times I was like to play the music? It was like it was underhanded. You're like, I'm just saying, 159 won't do it. But like this guy, like, don't tell me he's like other running backs. Don't trick me. Oh, I don't know.

After week one, we were all like, eh, I don't know. Is it is the run over for Derek Henry? seven weeks ago. You guys are going to be, you guys are going to have trouble working together. I've had to play the freaking music three times here for Hyphids because he can't make up his goddamn mind. Oh my God.

I'm going to be watching this so closely now. I can't wait for this. This is my best part. What's good, nice is that no matter what happens, I'll claim that I was in or out. So you are in or out, If it's right now. I'm in. He won't have to go out.

You're such a piece of shit. After all that, you're like, but I'm in, though. I get it. I just, it was an intellectually dishonest argument. This is the key to, this is who hyphids is a human being. He'll argue for 20 minutes and then at the very end be like, but you're right. D.K. knows what I'm saying, though. All right. Let's move on.

All right. Let's just calm down, sharks. Everybody, uh, you know, get back to neutral. Take a deep breath. I'm just looking for $5.5. That's it. Five measly dollars on Jalen Hertz over eight and a half rush attempts this week. against the Raiders who are kind of looking pretty good offensively. I feel like this is going to be a higher scoring, like positive game script in terms of like past heavy game script for the Eagles because they're going to have to be coming back. And or I think it could be close.

So he has hit the over on this, four out of six games. He's one of the- Jaylen Hertz. Jaylen Hertz has hit the over on eight and a half rush attempts and four out of six games. One of those other games was eight. So it's like he rushes a lot.

He's very consistently taking off and running. scrambling. The other thing I like about these, especially with Jalen Hurst, but like, why I like these quarterback rushing ones is like they could like scramble forward and dive for like half a yard and that counts as a rush attempt. You know what I mean? If he's like trying to evade pressure. So in a pass every script against a good Raiders team on the road, I feel like there's going to be a lot of dropback opportunities. The Raiders have given up the ninth most rush attempts to opposing quarterbacks this season. The eighth most yards rushing yards, rushing yards. to opposing quarterback.

So they're a little bit vulnerable against rushing quarterbacks. And again, just like the way that the Eagles play, I feel like he's going to have a good combination of scrambles and designed read option style plays with Miles Sanders. I just like this bet. I think he's going to, you know, and especially in this game script,

I think he's going to have to take off him run a bunch. So Jalen Hertz, looking for eight and a half on the over and rush attempts. Go ahead. I have sounds so high and it's hard to get over, but you have to get over it because he just really has just been in this ballpark the entire season. He's basically got eight, nine, ten, or eleven rushing attempts at every single game. I think it just comes down at what you think about how the Raiders are going to play him. So I'll begrudging.

I'll go, you know what? I'm NDK. Let me ask you something, because I'm actually kind of curious about this, just philosophically. The Raiders are not a very blitz-heavy team. do you think that would do you think that would encourage more quarterback rushing or not? I kind of feel like it would encourage

a little bit more rushing because he's not getting just completely taken out of the play by a free blitzer coming up like the, you know, the middle of the line or whatever. They're basically rushing with forward, dropping back. And I feel like it just,

it doesn't clog up the interior defensive line quite as much. I feel like that could potentially lead to more rushing. But I really don't know. I'm just sort of like guessing based on how I'm picturing. What do you guys think about that? Well, this is definitely one of those questions

that has an answer because you could look it up. You know what I mean? Should I Google machine it? Yeah. Well, no, no. Ben So, Sulek wrote about this. When, when, so Ben Selleck read this great story

for the Ringer about like what, how teams have stopped blitzing Patrick Mahomes. And basically they just hope that you dink, like you put more men in coverage, give him time in the pocket, hope he gets bored to dink and dunk and he doesn't want to Philip Rivers. Because when you blitz the quarterback,

they have like a hot read that they can make. that's why Joe Burrow does the like you can't go cover zero and me on Thursday of football but when you but Patrick Mahomes has like started rushing more

with now that he's not blitzing as much and I think Hertz would probably have a similar when the first second third read isn't there I could totally see Hertz bailing the pocket earlier Craig so are you saying I should have done more research before doing the podcast no no I was just joking I just thought of it I really just thought of it as I was like

as we were going through this but I was like I wonder if that makes a difference no yeah I'm just saying I'm sure there's probably a stat out there that's like Do quarterbacks run more often against the Blitz or against like an easy pass rush? But that's kind of the problem with nowadays. There's like, I forget what comedian does the joke, but... They probably pass more against the Blitz because the Blitz opens up. Yeah, I don't know.

But you know that joke where somebody's like, doesn't it suck now that nobody can have any conversations because there's an answer to everything? Like, nobody can wonder about anything anymore. There's no sense of discovery. Like, weeks later, you read it in a newspaper. And you're like, oh, my God, that thing we were talking about a month ago. Now it's just like, you know immediately.

Yeah. Yeah. But I think, D.K., so you were talking about his rushing totals. The lowest amount of rushes he's had in a game is seven. The most is 10. So it's very kind of packed in there in between seven and 10. But you're right. He's hit it four out of six times.

So yeah, I'll go in with you. Why not? Sweet. Group chat, DK. The overrunners on these are always just like, you almost feel like they're, like, how does Vegas do this? They're very good at, like, setting the overrunner. And then like when the game is on the line, there's like two minutes left or one minute left,

and they're like one away from the over. I'm like, son of a bitch, these guys can see the future. It's crazy. All right, who's up? Hyvitz? Indeed. Sharks. Yes.

Sometimes math isn't everything. I come to you here today to give you DeAndre Hopkins over 67 receiving yards. Interesting. The underlying numbers, maybe don't think I'm so smart. Who is target shoes going down? new advanced math he's not going to oh the forfeverts offense facts enough of your facts let me tell you about feelings deandra hopkins is playing the houston texans it's what we call a real revenge game i understand his target share has gone down i understand that part of that is because the cardinals

are a great offense and they're spreading the ball around i also understand that what the spreadsheets won't tell you is he's going to ask for the ball in this game like receivers want the ball. Receivers want the ball when they're going against their older employer who they who now hate. He's going to ask the ball. Kyler's going to give it to him. 67 yards is pretty modest. Oh, and on top of that, it's actually a really good matchup.

This is actually one of five receivers this week, Hopkins is one of five receivers this week that Pro Football Focus gave like a green light to. Hopkins is mostly going to be matched up with Vernon Hargraves on the left side. That's like a really good matchup for a cornerback for a defense. Andre Hopkins, like a good for Hopkins, bad for the cornerback. So not only is it actually a great matchup organically, it's also they're going to forfeet him this ball this week, as much as any week all season, 67 yards, very modest

for one of the best receivers in the NFL. Give me Hopkins, petty, over 67 receiving yards all day. So I like this one. Like you said, one of PFF's top rated matchups in terms of receivers versus corners, he's actually the fourth highest on here, among all receivers. And the other thing I think that's interesting, and Dewey McFarlane from PFF has been smart to point this out a few different times.

Like, we all are very worried about Dandre Hopkins' target rate this season. However, it's worth noting that Hopkins actually saw seven targets last week, and three of them were negated by a penalty. So he's, and McFarland notes, like, if he had actually seen those targets and those plays had counted, his target rate would have been 23%, which is like great.

So I don't know. It's one of those things he had a 32% target rate the week before that, 24%. Like his last three weeks altogether have been pretty solid. Like when you look at the actual raw numbers, including the fact that three targets got negated by penalty last week. So I'm still trying to stay like very bullish on Hopkins just because I think he's so goddamn good. Like he's still one of the best receivers in the NFL. He's like up there with the Andre Hopkins in my mind is like just pure skill.

his ability to win at the catchpoint, all that stuff. I think Kyler's still a very good quarterback. And so the other thing that I think is interesting is Kyler hasn't really been running very much the last couple of weeks. He's like under 10 yards rushing the last like two weeks both.

And so maybe that's partly due to his like shoulder injuries just trying to take it easy on that. You know, it's kind of like a replay of last season where he just stopped running halfway through the year because he hurt his shoulder. It feels like that's kind of happening again. So maybe that ticks up their passing. rate a little bit.

For all those reasons, I'm in. I totally understand the Houston Texans thing. Like he's playing the Texans. They're going to want to pepper him with targets. He's going to ask for the ball. Do you think, and this is,

I'm just purely asking, I don't believe this is true. Do you think that the Texans are like, we're going to try and limit DeAndre Hopkins in this game specifically? No. So I thought about that. I think the simplest answer is like,

I don't know how many of the Texans defenders are even left over. from Hopkins? I don't know how personal it is for the Texans because, like, how many of those guys are even left? Also, I don't know if they're necessarily going into this like, oh, we're going to limit this guy. I think they're just going to, I think

it's much more personal for Hopkins going against that team than the team going against Hopkins, like, by a lot. Yeah, I think you're right. I mean, I'm in on this bet, 67th low. And all the reasons you laid out make sense. Can I just point out that I was trying to argue that the numbers don't make sense for Derek

Henry and that's why I'm doing it. And then High Fitz got mad at me and then on the next thing, he's like, listen, guys, numbers aren't everything. No, no, no, no. What happened was, I was with you and then you said, if all the other running backs can't get this number, why should Derek Henry get this number, which was to me intellectually, dubious. Right.

Okay. Sure. I just didn't like her for two minutes you briefly pretended Derek Henry was like not that good. I didn't do that. But all right. You guys are seriously like... We have like three group chats this week where we're all in

that are just gonna be really awkward. Have you guys noticed a pattern that in every episode it's either myself arguing with Danny Hyphitz or Danny Kelly arguing with Danny Hyphitz? It's almost as if there's like... There's a constant. Interesting.

So I didn't hear you guys there. You're breaking up. Yeah, yeah. He's a... He's the youngest child. I think there's a reason here. That's true. Hyvitz would have trouble doing improv

because he would have to yes and. Instead of no but, which is his preferred method. Oh, man. All right, so do you want to recap our bets real quick here? Yes, someone else do that because now I'm just thinking.

He's trying to come up with the retort. I mean, I'm stuck in inward thought. Yeah. All right, so I've got Matthew Stafford under 32.5 pass attempts, Sterling Shepard over 64.5 receiving yards, and Jalen hurts over

eight and a half rush attempts. Craig has Darrell, well, actually, High Fitz and Craig have Darrell Henderson over 78 rushing yards. Craig also has Eli Mitchell from the 49ers over 62 and a half rushing yards and Derek Henry under 148.5 scrimmage yards. Is that what we decided on? Yeah, total yards. Receiving yards together, correct.

Okay. And then High Fitz has Miles Gaskin under 33 and a half rushing yards and DeAndre Hopkins over 67 receiving yards. There we go. Craig just hit me with that dagger because I'm realizing there was no possible comeback because what am I going to do? Say, no, I don't argue anything. No.

That's just, wow. That wasn't really an option. Painted you into a corner there, high fix. You guys want to go to long shot bets? Yeah, let's do it. You guys, for the first time ever, I actually have a four-leg parlay, and you guys just did random one-offs. It's sort of like the tables have turned.

Oh, how the turn tables. Okay, I've got, I'm doing a four-leg parlay on Carolina versus the Giants and I did this basically for High Fitz. Why? Why would it be for me? I don't know because you're a Giants fan and I just like to talk to you about the Giants. It's fun. Those giants give me enough Adjada? Yeah, you get kind of

upset about it. It's like, it's just kind of fun to see how you react. Anyway, here we go. I think Carolina is going to cover the spread. It's negative three right now. Minus three. Good call. I still always say negative instead of minus. I don't know. I'm never going to give that up.

All right. Carolina covers the spread. Chuba Hubbard over 74 and a half rushing yards because I think they're going to run the hell out of the ball in this one because Matt Ruhle fucking hates Sam Darnold with a fiery passion. Wow.

Sam Darnold under 236.5 passing yards. I don't know. Did you guys hear what Matt Ruhle was saying this week? He was like, we're completely rededicating ourselves to the run. No more fucking turnovers. Like you could see him seething about Sam Darnold just like live press conference. He just hates the guy.

Sam Donald, so, sorry, again, Carolina covers the spread, Chuba Hubbard over 74.5, Sam Donald under 236 passing yards, 236.5, and then the total under 43. And that you can get, with all those together, it is 8 to 1.

Yeah, I guess you're implying that the Giants will suck, so yeah, I'm in. Yes, correct. Okay, mine is much, a lot more simple. I like it, though, D.K., I like the I like your gumption. Thank you.

So I'm doing, I found this bet. Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins combined over one and a half rushing and receiving touchdowns. It's plus 125. So you get a little money on that bet. And listen, Kyler is essentially a red zone running back at this point. He's not really scrambling at a time. But when they're in the red zone,

he's such an easy threat to have some little fake handoff rollout for a one yard score. And then DeAndre, we just talked about why we like him this week. He could do this. He could, you know, win this bet on his own with two receiving touchdowns, which he's already done like three. times this year. So this is pretty nice. One and a half combined touchdowns out of the two of them plus

125. I feel like you could have put this in the other section and I would have been like fine with it. Yeah. This is a good one. I like that. Mine, mine what did you say the odds were on yours, Craig? 125. Okay. I got one that's

actually, it's just simple. It's just Matt Stafford to throw an interception. One interception or more, any interceptions from Stafford in this game, which is probably not going to happen but it's plus 145. So you're basically getting $1.50 if you put down a dollar, which just seems like good odds. Matthew Stafford's thrown three,

like a pick in each of his last three games. Obviously, it's a little dicey. It's why you're getting the odds. Like, I'm not saying, like the Lions might not be able to get a pass rush. This might be very stupid. He's probably going to shred them. But like one pick to throw,

like to get $1.50 back on a dollar. I mean, he's going to be emotional. This is Stafford back against the Lions. I mean, I don't know. I don't know. It's one pick. He has one pick in four out of six games this year. Yeah, I just like, I don't know.

It just seems like good odds. All you need is like a tip pass, a batter pass line. Yeah, I don't know. It just, shit happens. It's not like a, oh, Stafford's going to throw a pick. It just you don't usually get odds that high. Anyway, but that's kind of still, it's not that much. It's one and a half. You guys want like a real moonshot.

I got a moonshot for you. Yeah, we're going to start doing this every week because we got an awesome email from somebody saying that they want bets that they could win a computer off of a $5 bet. So we're going to start incorporating a moonshot bet every week into the show. This bet buys me a computer. Okay. So this was easy. Honestly, I think this is the easiest moon shot we're going to put together all year.

Like simple. It's simple. So this week you got three crazy games. The Lions are giving 15, it might be 16 points by the time you're reading this. They're listening. 16 points to the Rams. The Bears are giving like 13 points to the Buccaneers this week. And the Texans are giving like 17 or 18.

points, depending where you look to the Cardinals. If you take all three of those teams to win outright, like to win the game. So Lions beat the Rams, bears beat the Bucks, and the Texans beat the Cardinals, all three parlay together. And you put down $10. Do you guys know what you would win? Oh, $10. Let me think.

This is your trivia question. Everyone listening. Figure out what this is. So the Texans getting 18, the Bears getting 13, lion's getting 16. line's getting 16 those are the spread but no the point spread doesn't matter it's the money line they all have to win if you tie those together what do you think you win with a ten dollar bet i think it's got to be like 30 or 40 to 1 i'm gonna say you win 3 500 bucks so 4500000000 4 and a half thousand dollars that's a new macbook right there baby four and a half thousand dollars this is great i mean it's never going to happen but i mean fuck 10 so my actual recommendation if you actually want to do this because isn't it kind of easy to see?

Like doesn't one of these games happen every year where the Texans beat the Cardinals? A version of that happens every NFL season. Like the undefeated team drops it to like the worst team on their schedule every year it feels like. And then also the Lions beating the Rams would be so funny.

You know it's in play. So I actually, what I'd really recommend is probably round robinning like two bucks a piece on all, like you put together, it won't be quite the same. But if you do lions and bears parlay, bears Texans,

you just do like a little rod robin, a dollar on each of these will actually still get you like pretty good odds on a parlay. Because I do think two of these happening is like in the realm of reality. All three is probably negligible, which is why there's the reason we're calling it at the moonshot. Yeah. Wait, it's 450 to one odds for a reason. This is the Wizard of Oz parlay. Lions and Texans and bears.

Oh my. Oh my. So there you go. There's your for cock to bet. Okay. Last week I was in here. Yeah. Solek filled in for me with three for three.

So I think that since he filled in for me, that goes into my record, right? I'm giving you, yeah, we decided before the game that that would be fine. Bottom line is like we kept a team record up. We're now 31 for 54 on the season, which is 57%. I'm definitely dragging down that average.

I'm dragging it down. I'm going to try and get my average up a bit, guys. Just in a little bit of a slump. But we'll see how this week goes. Well, thank God we got so lucky. You're going bad at 8,000. All right. Bad quarterback league time.

Again, bad quarterback league. You play with us on Fandul. Fandle.com slash bad QB. Or you go the Fandle app. It's under games, NFL. Then you get game styles. Then we're at the bottom. And it's like bad quarterbacks are good.

Good. Quarterbacks are bad. And you have to pick one from every tier. It's a lot of fun. It's also just, it's just great. It's like perfect. It's just, who doesn't want to just root for bad quarterbacking? All right.

So looking, let's get into this here. Tier one, which is the, worst of the worst. We have Zach Wilson against New England, Davis Mills against Arizona, Justin Fields against the Bucks, Jimmy G against Indianapolis, and then Trey Lance as well, even though I think Jimmy G is going to start. The easy answer here would be Zach Wilson against New England, right? Because last time Zach Wilson played New England, he threw four picks. I want with Davis Mills, though. I don't really know why. I mean, other than just the obvious, like Davis Mills isn't very good.

but I just didn't think like lightning was going to strike twice and like Wilson's going to throw four picks again I don't know maybe it could I played the hits now they're in New England so that's rough it's rough and you know it's rough New England's playing better lately

and Davis Mills honestly he's been playing a little bit better lately but yeah I mean yeah not a lot of thought put into this other than it's Zach Wilson against Bill Belichick maybe it makes sense to like Zagg to win this contest but I just I still want Zach well yeah

it's Zach Wilson against Belich I'm not going to think of it All right tier two we got Mac Jones against the Jets. We got Goff against the Rams, Tuah against Atlanta, and our man, Danny Dimes versus Carolina. I went with Danny Dimes. I don't really blame me on that one.

I was very close to picking that one. I went golf ultimately because I usually just like to pick the team that's playing Aaron Donald. Yeah. Rule of thumb. I really thought about Danny Dimes here, but I actually went with Mack Jones because I just kind of think this Patriots Jets game

is going to be really freaking ugly. Okay. Are you expecting like turnovers or just like a kind of an average slow day for Mac? Both. I want the Mac Jones shine to come off this week. And I think the Jets defense. I like I just think it could happen. Wow.

All right. All right. Tier three here. It's funny. There's so little options now because there's a million buys this week. Tier three only has three choices. Sam Darnel against the Giants, Taylor Heineckee against Green Bay and Wentz against the Niners. I went with Wentz because he's flying a little too hot for me.

There's going to be bad weather. The Niners have two weeks to prepare for him. So I went with Wentz. Is your strategy basically whence is playing well and that can't sustain? Exactly. I went with Heineke.

Dude, I'm going with Darnold, man. Do we do three different options, three different picks? Wow. Here's why I went with Heineke over Darnold. My first, like, obvious instinct was to pick Darnold because he's just been so terrible lately.

I really don't think they're going to let him throw it very much in this game. Assuming that they can get out to like an early lead or at least like take care of business early in the game, not fall behind really far. I think they're going to run a ton. I don't think they're going to ask Donald to do much.

And so I think, Heineke, on the contrary, is going to have to be playing from behind against Green Bay. He's going to throw a couple of picks. He's going to do his wild thing where he's like falling back and tries to chuck up a pass into the end zone, all that. So yeah, I want with Heineke.

He's really had to fall from Grace. I feel like everybody kind of thought he was frisky in the playoff game last year and he's kind of just not been good. No. Okay, tier four. We got Ryan Tanyhill against the Chiefs, Joe Burrow against Baltimore, Matt Ryan in Miami and Derek Carr at home versus the Eagles.

I went with Joe Burrow against Baltimore. I did too. It also kind of makes me a little bit worried, though, because Baltimore has been blitzing a lot lately, and like the whole Burrow beating the blitz thing, maybe there is actually something to that. However, I just think all these other options are just, like, better to me

in terms of, like, the offense explosion that they could have. So, yeah, I went with Burrow, just because I think they play slow. Baltimore runs a lot. It's going to, like, slow the game down. That's going to shorten the game, fewer plays, fewer chances for points, all that stuff. I won't with Tannahill against the Chiefs.

I just think he's not going to do much. Yeah. Okay. I'm scared of Burrow. That's kind of a reverse psychology pick there. All right, tier five. Burrow has looked pretty good lately, I will say. He has.

I'm just worried about, yeah, the offensive line, the blitzing, he's going to get hit once and just kind of be like a little bit. No. He'll just try and run it a bunch. Yeah, I don't know. All right, tier five. Rogers against Washington,

Matt Stafford against the Lions, Jalen Hertz against the Raiders and Brady against Chicago, I went with Tom Brady. Ooh. Really hoping that moonshot pays out, huh? I just like that. I think the game's going to be really low scoring, and Chicago's defense has been, like,

actually really underrated and good. And Jalen just murders you on the ground, so I didn't want to go with him. Stafford against the shitty lions. I don't see a lot happening there. And same with Rogers against Washington at home. Shit. I kind of want to change my answer.

like to change your answer? No. Oh, man. I think I'm going to go, I think I'm going to change my answer to Brady too. I originally had hurts, but like I agree with you, like the running thing really kills you. And I think he's going to run a lot in this game. He's the most consistent quarterback in fantasy. Yeah, that's true.

I got Aaron Rogers. Because I can see Rogers doing like a week after the, I own you, like having a bad game. And everyone's like, oh, well, maybe maybe it's the mortgage the Bears ownership. I don't know, I could just see it. All right. Last tier here. Final three, Mahomes against the Titans, Lamar against Cincinnati, Kyler against Arizona.

I mean, sorry, Kyler against Houston. I went with Kyler because of the reasons I stated earlier, number one. He hasn't been running very much lately. And again, he's like, I think he's under 10 yards per game in the last two games, rushing. And he's got a shoulder injury. So maybe that's like, you know, just like ask that maybe they'll just run a bunch in the second half and try not to ask him to do a whole lot.

Basically hoping for like the least bad situation here. And I think Mahomes and Jackson could. to go off. Who'd you go with Hyphitz? Well, with Mahomes, because it's like, Kyler, I mean, look, they're so good in this tier. I think the difference is Lamar with the running, you don't want him. I think the difference is just like if Tyree Kiel is limited, it doesn't play or gets hurt in the game.

Not that you want to root for injuries or anything, but it kind of feels like you're either picking Kyler because he's a little banged up or the Chiefs because they're, like, Kelsey and Hill are a little banged up. I'm just going to go with Mahomes, but I'll probably just get just blown into Smith of Reins for doing that. This is funny. We all did a different thing again.

I went with Lamar against Cincinnati, whose defense has actually been kind of good and underrated. And the last time these two teams played, they played in week 17 last year, kind of a nothing game that didn't matter, and Cincinnati got killed. But they played in week five last year, and Cincinnati held Lamar to two attempts in three rushing yards,

and they've done a really good job historically, like limiting him rushing. And even if he, like, dices you up throwing, I'd rather bet on that than I'd rather want him to beat me in the air than beat me on the ground. And I'll just take the guy playing the best. best defense. Cool.

Fair enough. So that's it. Last up, I just want to, we talked about loan trades last episode. I think we got more feedback,

email, Twitter, everything than we've ever gotten for any discussion we've ever had. Overwhelmingly on D.K. side that loan trades are bullshit.

Yeah. Hyphiz and I are on the kind of the chaos side. Yeah. I think. You're on the side of collusion, you mean.

All right. Collusion is a ridiculous. Collusion is to deceive. If people announce it to the group chat, that's the wrong term. but Dan and like

so I'll just summarize Dan and Leah sent an email I like but basically they just said overall a loan trade feels against the spirit of the game

I think that's kind of the core point I'm open to that I just think that it should be black and white whether they're allowed or not somebody described it as insider trading

that's better than collusion yeah which I kind of thought made a little bit was a little bit more apropos but I agree what everyone's saying

I do I do get it You know how they say, like, you should just do what the defense doesn't want you to do, or that's a good way to tell what's going on? You can kind of think of a fantasy court as you tell yourself, what if this happened in your league, how would you feel? And if this happened in my league, I think I'd be pissed. So I kind of go against what I said on Wednesday. Okay, so is this a, like, appellate court overturning one other court or whatever? Like, I don't know how the courts work, by the way, but did we decide on something? I can't remember, actually, at the top of my head.

We hung jury. Did you come to a ruling? I think this is the high court punting it back to the lower court. Yeah. Maybe this is the thing we did on the shadow docket. Now we've got to undo it later. Right, right, exactly. So we're changing our answer, basically.

I was always, I was always vehemently against this idea. And turns out I was right. And I convinced you guys to do it and or the public uproar pressured you guys out of it. The judiciary is supposed to be strong against populism, but here we are just absolutely buckling. Yeah. It's almost like we're not. It's great. heavily.

Yeah. It's almost like we're the opposite of a court. That's tough. No, I agree. I think it comes down of this. Like, I,

everyone is against this. And I'm kind of like, all right, like, that's, sometimes I feel strongly where it's just like, this is what's right. And I'm sorry,

people are pissed off. But I think in this one, it's so strange that I'm kind of down, just roll at the tide of like, wow, you guys are mad about this. All right, whatever. You're just rolling over.

I stand by the fact that maybe by the letter of the law, technically it's legal. but it's just incredibly lame. I think that it's, yeah, it's one of those things where if you've allowed them in the past that allow it,

I just basically think you should address it in the off season and be like, we are going to have a rule on this. No long. Yeah. I think that is a good idea. That's our recommendation is make us, make an explicit rule that says you can't do this.

I know we had, in one of our leagues, we had a rule is like you had to, if you traded anybody, you couldn't trade that player back to any team for in less than four weeks. I think the idea was. Yeah, something like that.

That's a good, something like that. Yeah. But yeah, I just, I just be clear about it. It's just, you don't want things to pop up. Middle of the season.

Okay, beautiful. Right, that's all we got. Thank you, D.K., thank you, Craig. Thank you to everyone who emailed us at ringer fantasy football at gmail.com to yell how Craig and I were wrong. We heard you, even we could not get back to all of you.

But thank you. Thank everyone tweeted us. Emails to ringer fantasy football at gmail. For showdown time, we will be doing the green room on Sunday at noon eastern nine Pacific. I always get so salty when I have to say, I'm Pacific, you two Pacific people.

But I'm sure that this is the most brutal starts that you'll, many people have ever had to deal with. Or maybe it's easy because you have literally no options. Either way, we'll be talking on noon, Eastern green room. You can not just type in the chat. You can also actually come up on stage and talk to us. That's fun. And then also I'm doing Green Room on Monday Night Football or after Monday

and football. So yeah, all right. That's it. And most of all, thank you, Lorne. Lord. Thank you for the zombies. Ooh. Nice, D.K.

Very nice. That's a good one. Are they Irish, Scottish? What are they? Zombies, any culture can be zambified. No, I think you're thinking of the song, zombie. Oh, by the cranberries. Yes.

I mean, they might be Irish. I think they're British. I think they're from England. But I could be wrong. Yeah, they are. They're English. I was thinking of zombie by the cranberries. That's a good song, too.

Zombie. Zombie. Zombie. Then we could also go with like the Rob Zombie thing, which is really different. You remember that one? More human than human? Was that what's the name of the song?

I don't know. Hyfitz? Wait, you don't know Rob Zombie? I know of him. He's like the guy with the crazy hair and the face paint. He's like nuts, right? Yeah, yeah.

Is that it? I have nothing to add about Rob Zombie. Not one thing. I think we should say goodbye. Goodbye to everyone except Rob Zombie. I don't know who you are.