The Ringer NFL Show - ‘Shark Tank’ Prop Bets - Week 9

Episode Date: November 5, 2021

We pitch one another on our favorite prop bets for the weekend’s games in the style of ‘Shark Tank.’ Later, we offer up our favorite long-shot bets, including our new moonshot bet of the week. Finally, we give our Bad QB League picks for Week 9. Long-Shot Bets (3:59) Prop Bets (14:49) Bad QB League (56:46) Sign up and compete against us in the Bad QB League on FanDuel here.  Email us at [e-mail]. Hosts: Danny Heifetz, Danny Kelly, Craig Horlbeck Producer: Craig Horlbeck Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hello, I'm Mallory Rubin. And I'm Van Leithen. Check out the Ringerverse podcast from The Ringer for all things, superhero movies, nerd culture, and fandom entertainment. We have instant reviews and fun takes on all the latest news and more, available now on Spotify. Welcome to the Ringer Fantasy Football Show.

My name is Danny Heifitz. I am joined by Danny Kelly and Craig Horlebeck. It is week nine, which are we halfway through? I don't know how to do this anymore, because there's 17 games and 18 weeks. I don't really know when the halfway point is. It used to be a little easier, but it's week nine.

We're doing prop bets. We're doing Shark Tank style. Do we want to talk about Aaron Rogers? Like, uh, new news. Aaron Rogers is not playing this weekend. And apparently he lied about being vaccinated or just kind of was trying to be sneaky. He's not vaccinated,

but he is immunized. Well, did he lie or does he believe that his, what is it, the alternative homeopathic treatment. Perhaps, I mean, if he believes it, it's not a take if you believe it, right? It's like... Right.

It's very true. I mean, he used a very, very specific selection of words there. Here's the deal, though. He's not planned. It's the bottom line. That is the, that's the underrated part of it. It got so thrown around that like, you know,

did he say he was vaccinated as he lies? He's been doing the press conference without the mask, called the other unvaccinent players were doing him with masks. that I'm kind of interested in like, did he throw a Halloween, or did he attend a Halloween party the week before this Chiefs game?

There are a lot of questions like that. So apparently the teams are in charge of enforcing all the COVID protocols. So it's like opening this whole canon worms where apparently like a bunch of guys who are unvaccinated. Like some of the main characters and the whole unvaccinated thing,

like Kurt Cousins. We almost did a main characters of the 2021 season about unvaccinated players, but we decided not to. Cole Beasley, yeah. They've been doing their press conferences indoors without a mask,

which apparently I think is against the rules, against the protocols. And so now the NFL is like, hey, what the fuck? All these teams are not enforcing the rules because they don't want to, like, bring them extra heat on their quarterbacks or whatever.

So anyways, it's this whole can of worms. The funny part to me, look, it's not funny. I hope Aaron Rogers is okay. But the part that tickles me a little bit is that Aaron Rogers leaned so unbelievably far into telling us exactly what he was doing this weekend.

Like with the John Wick costume and the Halloween party. It's like we all knew what he was doing this weekend before any of this happened. Maybe, you know, if he really wanted to be John Wick, he would just stay at home alone with his dog. Maybe he did that, you know. There you go. And he can just keep all his gold coins underneath his floor, which... Hammer into cement all night

as his workout. It doesn't feel that far-fetched. No, it doesn't. All right. move on. So what is that, first off, before we move on, I don't think it means anything for Devante Adams, or at least you're still starting to Monta Adams. Yeah, you're still going to play.

I think you could play worse, but you're playing him. Sure, that's not, I misspoke. It doesn't, it doesn't mean nothing. However, you're still starting him is kind of what I meant to say. It's one of the worst spots to be in in fantasy football is when you have a stud player in their top level quarterback is out, like your Hall of Fame quarterback is out because you have to play him. Like, you're going to play Devonte Adams.

You're going to play whoever, DeAndreux. You're going to play whoever, DeAndierre Hopkins. But there's a, there's like, a realistic possibility that. that DeAndre Hopkins, I mean that Devante Adams has like three catches for 37 yards. And you're like, well, that's sucked, but I had to do it. Yeah, I don't think it changed anything because it's Devonthe's going to play. Aaron Jones is a play for you. And really, AJ Dylan was kind of a good flex either way this week because the Chiefs Rundee's so bad.

So it's like, yeah, it's exactly the same. Fantasy is weird. Yep. Should we get to the prop bets? Well, you know what? I'm just going to stick here for a moment. I'm going to completely go out of order. Okay.

While we're on this topic, though. My long shot for the week. I don't think the Packers win this game anyway. money line Packers is it's like two depending where you look it's like 250 to 1 so basically 2 and 1 half to 1 to put a dollar down you win 250 I kind of think the Packers win this game they're like a touchdown underdog

yeah I like it 7 and a half point favorite are the chiefs I'm in charge of the moonshot this week hyphitz and I'm just going to say that's part of my moonshot but I'm not going to do it until the very end here well we're just talking about it now good teaser talk about it now yeah go ahead do it let's just go backwards this episode It's, it's, we'll do it, memento.

No, we're talking about Aaron Rogers. Ignoring the rules, ignoring the doc, this is like, I'm just saying, I feel like the- You're the Aaron Rogers of the show, just blatantly flaunting the rules. Is that the word? No, that's not the word. Flaughting? I don't know, who cares?

The point is that I think the Packers are a better team. I think that they're a pretty good running team. I think the Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon combo, I actually do think the Packers will be able to kind of run the ball on the Chiefs. The Packers, like, play like, a complete. team. This is one of those games where Matt Lefleur might get his shine, and we might be like, oh yeah, he has like one of the best records for any

coach to begin his career literally ever on like 75 years. And the offense, the defense, the special teams all play is like one team. They're not like three different units, like they're one team. I know it's a cliche, but also the Chiefs are playing awful right now. The Chiefs barely beat the Giants in a game. The Giants were playing horribly.

And I just kind of think also take-wise, you know, this is the take dream, right? If Jordan Love and beats Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs on Sunday night football. Or it's not Sunday football. It's like afternoon football. But like if Jordan Love and the Packers beat the Chiefs

because Aaron Rogers is out with COVID because he's not vaccinated. That's every offseason storyline in one neat little bow. Yeah, then I bet Aaron will be upset that he injected himself with olive oil or wherever it was. It's like the bow. But it's like the bow flex. It's like that's every offseason story in one place. I got to. So the Aaron Rogers thing came out on Wednesday, correct?

Wednesday morning isn't everybody found out? Yeah. I think so. Yeah. Was that for, it feels like. like three weeks ago. Right. It was yesterday.

So does that mean Monday and Tuesday the Packers were under the assumption that Rogers would be the starting quarterback? So that's two last days that Jordan Love got to take

first team reps, right? That kind of sucks. Not really because they put, basically teams do the install days on Wednesdays. So they probably found out, I mean, they probably found out at six in the morning

on Wednesday. Yeah. So you think Love's got enough time to like really kind of prepare as the number one QB? Yeah. Well, I liked what Kevin Clark said as a joke,

but he's right, which is they have five days to tell them Daniel Sorensen is, which is true. Chief's safety, who just keeps getting picked on on national television. Okay, so, hi-fits, my moonshot is somewhat related to this. I did here. So the idea behind our moonshots every week is $10 bet.

Win a computer. New computer. I'm going for a tricked-out fucking MacBook on this one with all the, with all the bells and whistles here. It's a five-leg parlay, and it's all money lines. And a lot of these are just like, I feel like teams that they're definitely not favored,

but they could certainly win. The Texans. So first of all, the Packers beat the Chiefs is one of them. That's one. The Texans beat the dolphins. Therod Taylor is back. The dolphins have been hot,

flaming garbage. Wow. And I kind of like that one. The Broncos beat the Cowboys. This one is probably not going to happen, clearly. But the Broncos are one of those teams that can slow the game down

and turn it into like, something where the last few possessions can determine the game type of deal. They still have a lot of skill players. As the old boss would say, this is a Von Miller Ewing theory game. There we go. Maybe they're going to like rally because they lost Von Miller. They're pissed off. Yeah.

Who knows? Yeah. And also, by the way, DAC is still, yeah, that's going to happen. Dak is still a little bit questionable. Yeah. You know, I don't know if he's going to be 100%. Vikings beat the Ravens, which I can just flat out see happening.

It doesn't seem that wild to me. The Vikings have a really good offense when. is clicking, and so who knows? So that's four. And then finally, this one is the one I feel by far the least confident about, but it's in the realm of possibility. The Titans beat the ramps. D.K., this is the Patrick Ewing Parley,

essentially. What are the odds? Yeah, Derek Henry and, yeah, this is the... This is Aaron Rogers is out. Derek Henry's out. Von Miller's out. Wait, what are the odds in... Okay, first of all, what are the odds in this bet, DK? So it is 6,800 to 1. So in other words, A $10

$10 bet wins you $6,824. You know what, though, DK, what I'll give you here is that you're right in the sense that the only really shitty team you chose to win is the Texans, but they're playing another shitty team in the Dolphins.

Every other team here in Minnesota is like a top 10 offensive team this year. Tennessee, a team that's kind of rounding in a form, obviously, the Los Eric Henry. They just beat the Chiefs. I mean, we know now

the Chiefs aren't that good, but they like fucking dominated the Chiefs. I get that they're without Henry. Right. And while Denver's not a great team either, they're not a bottom five team in the league. So I, I kind of see where you're coming from here. I want to see

what the odds are in just the Ewing theory parlay. The Ewing theory is for people who didn't read old Bill Columns is basically that Bill's friend was convinced that the Georgetown was better without Patrick Ewing or just the Nix. I don't remember which I was in life. I don't know. Okay, so giving it's like certain teams are better without their star

players. I felt this way about the Rockets at one point with James Harder. So you're talking about the Broncos, the Packers, the Titans, and the Broncos. And I think that just those odds of all three of those teams win, just Packers' So the Packers without Rogers, the Titans, and Broncos is... That's still $3,000 to $1. That's still $10 for paying $300.

Yeah. It's kind of funny. $333.33. Bill's lucky number is 33, so that's kind of funny that pays $333. Anyways. Yeah, I've got that $68 to 1. Oh, 68 to 1. So you get $699 for a $10 bet.

Cheap computer? 69 to 1. Lenovo think book? 69 to 1. That's a nice bet. guys. Okay, let's see here. So that's my money line. That's my moonshot parlay. And I honestly, like, this is obviously not going to happen, but you can make a pretty

good, like, argument that each of these other, each of these teams could win this weekend. I wanted to do one with the Jaguars beating the bills because it's like, I don't know, it's a ridiculous line right now. It's like 14 and a half line or something. But I just don't see that happening. the Jacks are just too good So, or the bills are just too good What kind of good is this? It's a five-leg

Parley. It's a moose-up. Okay, I was going to say, you say parley like Jack Sparrow or like the Pirates of the Caribbean but the Palet. You pronounce the way. I should say parlay.

Oh, I say like I like elongate the syllables. You say like a pirate. You emphasize the way. Parley. Yeah. Paulet. Pauley.

I hate palet. Anyway. A parley. If we're going to stick here in the long shot category, I might well go. Oh, we just, okay, yeah, we're just going back. I mean, we did you two. Might as well, right?

Freaking hyphets, just messing it up. We're starting with the big, the big money bets. So I actually am also sticking in the spirit of, of both of you picking underdogs to win. I just like the Falcons to beat the Saints straight up. Oh, I always added this in. Shit, should we just add this into the fucking moonshot? I have mixed feelings about this. So I know Calvin Ridley is likely not to play. Or, you know, we actually, we have no idea, but it seemed as though he's not playing. We haven't heard anything. But so it's like we have, we have, we have, Trevor Simeon, Tayson Hill,

Taysen Hill's practicing again. They've been pretty cagey about who's starting. We don't really know. And the Falcons had a bad game

last week, they got a letdown game, but like all of their underlying, like they just had like a couple bad important plays that caused him to lose the game. Like all their EPA,

success rate, all that bullshit. All that was still good. And the Falcons have been trending upwards. This is a letdown game scenario for the Saints. They just geared up

for the bucks, beat them, had a huge, resounding victory with Trevor Simeon. I think Matt Ryan's the best quarterback on the field. This is a divisional game.

This shit happens all the time in the NFC South. Six and a half point dogs are the Falcons, and they're plus 240 to just win the game outright. I don't know. I like it. So here's my one thing. I think on the surface, I hate this. Because Sean Payton is, to me, such a better coach than Arthur Smith.

And, like, I just hate betting against Sean Payton because I think he's proven that he can really get the Saints ready to play and win games. You don't think they can win. but here's why I also thought about this bet, Greg, is that if Taysam Hill starts, Taysim Hill only started like four games last year, a quarterback.

Two of those four were against the Falcons. Now, I don't know how much that's worth because the Falcons are different coaching staff, but still, I'm kind of just interested in that Taysam Hill, this is basically going to be his fifth start as a quarterback, and this will be his third time against Atlanta. And, like, I'm kind of interested,

interested in like if the falcons remaining defensive players or even Matt Ryan, I don't know, like they have some kind of thoughts on like what he can and cannot do. That's very rare. I can't think of another situation where three of a quarterback's first five starts are against the same team. Yeah. Maybe they figured him out or maybe he figured them out. Well, I just don't know how much it's worth because of the coaching staff.

So I didn't know what to do. But I also thought about this for that reason, Greg, for the Falcons being the same. It's honestly more of a, I mean, I feel like a lot of these long shots are more gut calls. Like, well, I just looked at the line and when I see Falcon Saints and it's Tason Hill versus Matt Ryan, I'm just like, why is it six and a half points? I know that the Saints have a really good defense

and that they've like, Sean Payton has been scheming up a lot of good stuff for the Saints this year. But I also go on a quick tangent for a second. Sure. So obviously it seems like Odell Beckham's going to get released from the Browns because they were just putting him in time out like indefinitely.

And it just seems like they're going to have to cut him. And everyone's kind of thrown out there that he wants to go to the Saints. I get he's from like Louisiana. if he wants to catch passes, why would you go to the Saints? How on earth are they like, Baker Mayfield can't hit Odell

so they're going to have Tassum Hill throw to Odell Beckham? How is that going to make Odell Beckham Senior happy? Yeah, that makes no sense. I don't understand anything anymore. Anyway, that has nothing to do with this game. I like this as a part. I kind of like the Falcons Packers as a parley.

You could also call Falcons, Patrick Ewing, without Calvin Redley. Yeah? Well. I don't think I buy that, but yeah. Yeah, I probably don't either. Yeah, I don't buy it either, but it's interesting. This is just a game where it's, it's going to be 17 to 14 Falcons in the fourth quarter.

And you're like, what the hell? Falcons are hanging in there. I just know it. Yeah. Yeah. All right. Okay. So those are the long shots, moon shots.

We're completely out order. It's Mimeno style. You want to go Shark Tank? Yeah. All right. I'm going to just continue to hijack this. And I'm, because we already talked about cheese packers. I'm just going to throw the ball,

myself right now. God damn it. And I'm just going to button this whole conversation back to the beginning. Okay. Which is my first sharks. Yes. Every single week since week one, Patrick Mahomes has thrown an interception in a game. And yet somehow, some way, Patrick Mahomes, to throw one or more interceptions against the Packers

is more than even money. It's like plus $1.15. For him to throw one or more? To throw any amount of interceptions. Patrick Mahomes is plus money. Yeah. So I think this one's very fascinating because how many of these have just been total

like insane, terrible luck and how much do we think that bad luck is going to continue? This is kind of like this is one of the things that people were worried about when he was coming out of college. He tries to do too much at times. You know, he gets out of the pocket and he'll throw it sidearm into traffic or whatever. And like he's never ever had an issue with that prior

to this season because he's just has such elite arm-taunt. But for whatever reason, this year, and I'm not saying none of the interceptions were just bad luck, because he certainly has made some bad throws in this season. But

there's been an incredible amount of ones that were just like, it bounced off a guy's face and like into the other team's hands or whatever. You know, like this was that happened last week. He threw a pass, it hit off of someone's face mask and was deflected up into the and intercepted in the end zone.

And so, like, what are the odds of that? Well, that one was picked, but he also had a couple balls go through Giants' defenders' hands that went right to them. And so those were dropped. And look, I understand what I'm coming. Like, Joe Pahomes will throw a pick. Basically, what I'm saying here is it's roulette.

And, hey, it's landed on red eight times in a row. You guys, it's got to land on Red 9, right? Like, that's the 9th time. I get that that's basically what I'm doing here. However, man, red has thrown a lot of picks, guys. It's like basically like the circumstances that lead to these picks I'm not convinced will immediately change is basically my point. Like the chiefs clearly are just going with who they are. I if they couldn't change against the Giants, I'm not really convinced they're going to change very quickly.

It's like a philosophical change. I just think they're just going to keep taking shots. I just think like again, you're getting positive. You're getting pulp here. You don't even have to give pulp. Hi, Fitz, this reminds me of something that PFF was talking about a bunch last year is that

Mahomes got really lucky in the interception department last year too. In fact, so I'm just looking at the stats. In 2020, Mahomes threw six picks total. However, he threw 22 turnover-worthy passes, which is basically a pass that

either went through a defender's hands or could have been picked easily or whatever. I don't know exactly how they graded, but that was third most. Sorry, tied first. for fourth most in the NFL. So there is something to, like, he's just sort of regressing to the mean,

he's getting less lucky in terms of... The Chiefs have always been this team. Yeah. They've been the same team for a while. It's just... And also, the one thing I hate is, like, everyone's, like, criticizing Patrick Mahomes' mechanics.

Now that, like, he's throwing some picks. I'm like, no one had any problems with the mechanics. The last... I don't remember any criticism of the mechanics on the 70-yard cross-body throws across the field for a touchdown. 100,000 percent. Like, I

Are you guys out on Mahomes? Are you just, he's flashed? No, I'm defending him. Like, let him be him. I thought it was very telling the Monday night football broadcast before the Giants game. Alex Smith joined ESPN as a broadcaster.

And basically everyone's like, he's got to change, he's got to, can't do too much. And Alex Smith is sitting here like, what are you guys talking about? Did you get, he's going to defend him no matter what, but still he's like, what are you guys talking about? Patrick Mahomes has just gone on one of the best runs in NFL history by the, the eye test and by the numbers and by making two Super Bowls back to back winning one. And you wanted to change how he's playing because he had a bad two months. What are you talking about? He's got to take shots.

And like, don't forget, Alex Smith basically made his entire career by not turning the ball over. And he's the one being like, screw it, whatever. Okay, turn the ball over. That's the price of doing business if you're Patrick Milam's. Yeah, like if Steph Curry goes cold for a month, no one's going to tell him to stop shooting threes. Exactly. It's like this, he has, he is literally one of the most special and incredible.

players we've ever seen. And yes, he's thrown some picks that were his fault and dumb. No one had a problem with the no look passes before. Also, like, their defense is horrible. They can't run the ball. The offensive line isn't playing great. Like, there's a lot of other factors that are kind of... It's, yes, there are some dumb plays he's made.

But there are also, as D.K said, just so many times, like, his receivers have dropped the ball. Overall, though, I just think he's going to throw a pick, man. I just think they'll do it. Okay, so I just want to make it clear that I'm not piling on to the Mahomes, hating that we've seen some happen in the media. However, because of the style of their offense, because of Mahomes' style as a passer,

and because of the turnover-worthy play numbers, and just generally speaking, the state of this offense, for all those reasons, I'm in on this. However, I'm still 100% confident in Mahomes going forward. We're really excited for this opportunity, D.K., we're really excited to have you on as an investor. We're really excited to get you a board of chairman,

I don't know, what are the board of directors meetings. But Craig, we'd love to bring you on as well. You know, with all of the slain there about Patrick Mahomes these past few weeks, everybody was on board with this Monday night game. We thought they were going to trounce New York. And it feels like now that that didn't happen

and they squeaked out of victory, we're off them now. We were all in on them having this great comeback this week. I'm going to say it's going to happen this week now. And I'm going to lay off. I'm going to root for Patrick Mahomes to not throw an interception. I don't think he will. I think he's going to have a great game. and they're going to beat up on Jordan Love.

So I'm out. Dude, D.K., get a load of this guy. It's been red eight times in a row, and he wants to bet on black. Right. It's like you don't even know anything about roulette, Craig. I'm fine with it. Let's just do this.

All right. Who wants to go next? I'll go next. I feel like we talked a lot about this Packers' Chiefs game, so I'm going to switch gears. Sharks. I'm looking for a $10 bet on Jalen Hertz. going under 239 past yards this week against the Chargers.

Okay, so the Chargers right now, sort of the book on the Chargers defense is very good, past defense, very bad run defense. They're fourth and past defense DVOA, and they've given up the fourth fewest passing yards to opposing quarterbacks this year. I'm going to run through the last few weeks in terms of the numbers of yards,

the quarterbacks that they've got, the number of yards passing, they've given up to the quarterbacks over the last few weeks. last week Mac Jones they gave up 217 passing yards week before that Lamar Jackson 167 the week before that Baker Mayfield 305 so that was over this number that we're talking about the week before that Derek Carr 10096 yards Derek Carr one of the most prolific passers this year the week before that Mahomes squeaked it out 260 yards week two deck Prescott 237 yards and then week one heinicky 122 yards they've been very stingy against the pass um but but By the way, Jalen Hertz hasn't been super prolific as they passed for this year. He's gone under this number six out of eight games the season, including a lot of those instances were when the Eagles just straight up didn't run the ball. Like they were pass heavy at an insane level.

Remember, we were so frustrated about Miles Sanders early in the season. They've started running the ball a whole bunch more over the last few weeks, and I think that what they're going to do is probably try and take what the defense is giving them. In this case, the chargers are going to be begging them to run the ball. So I can see them accepting that challenge and doing it. Even if it's a close game, obviously last week they had a leading script almost the entire game. But I do think this will probably be a somewhat back and forth,

close-ish game. Chargers are favored by one and a half on the road. Their offense hasn't exactly been clicking. So I just think more or less, like they're going to be run heavy in this game. I don't think Hertz hasn't been particularly past prolific this season. And a lot of times when he drops back, he starts to run anyway.

So that's helpful in this area. And yeah, I think just all those things combined, especially with the Chargers, just wanting opposing teams to run it. I think this is going to be a low-volume passing game for the Eagles. What do you think? I like the Chargers to just win this game in general. Like you said about, you know, the wrap on the Chargers is you've got to run against them. And that's definitely true.

They're dead last in the league in Rush DVOA. And this is how teams have beaten them. And the Chargers also have been specifically good against mobile quarterbacks. Against Lamar and Dak Prescott this year. I think Lamar was the quarterback 21 on the week and Dak was the quarterback 29. So they're really good at bottling up these mobile quarterbacks and bottling up deep plays.

So I think the Eagles are going to do just with the last week and try and run 45 times and keep this game close and keep Justin Herbert off the field. So for all those reasons, Daniel Kelly, I'm in. Oh, hell yeah. Thank you, Craig. Hi, Hyphitz. I don't like the look.

on your face right now. What are you thinking? I mean, the Chargers D is just good against, like, the exact kind of receivers. I mean, I don't think this is a good matchup for Devante Smith. Jalen Rager is playing, but was carted off last week. Yeah, he's slow, he's hurt by a, was an ankle injury, I believe? I'm not a Quiz Watkins believer. I mean, I think this is a really tough matchup for hurts to throw much. I am, I am in. All right.

Dang. Group chat, baby. That's what I'm talking about. Well, I like Quas Watkins. I feel bad. I said it wasn't a believer. But I'm not a believer in him this week. Sorry, Quayz.

That's fair. That's fair. Okay, Sharks, I'm going to keep the short and sweet. We're going back to Kansas City, Green Bay. We have to go back. We have to. I'm like, what's his name from Lost? I'm going to keep the short and sweet that we talked about this game a lot. Aaron Jones, I'm looking for a $5 investment on Aaron Jones to catch more than three and a half passes,

which means four. or more. He has done... Is that what's over three and a half? It is. He can't catch 3.8. I checked.

Oh, okay. He's had four catches or more in each of the last four games. Listen, Jordan Love is playing quarterback. I love to bet on running back catches

getting inflated when quarterback's come in. The Chiefs have given up the NFL's fifth most receiving yards to running backs, the seventh most

catches to running backs and Aaron Jones ranks third in running back catches this year. They are not using A.J. Dillon like they were Jamal Williams

in the passing game. So it is all going to Aaron Jones. Checkdowns are easy plays. They're confidence building. They're safe. Mike White-style offense. I like Aaron Jones getting over three and a half catches this week.

Craig, I think I almost put this exact one. For that reason alone, I'm in. Wow. I also have an Aaron Jones bet. High Fitz, I'm going to let you do your answer first, but my God, we're talking about this game a lot. No, just give your other Aaron Jones bet. And then you will... Decide on on both of them.

All right. However, Craig, I just want to say, great one. Love this one. I like this one a lot. All right. I feel like that's like you're complimenting yourself. I'm buttering them up a little bit here.

No, I want to, I want to admit them on my bet too. All right. Had some success last week with the longest run prop. So I'm going back to the well on this one. It's probably ill-advised, but I like it anyway.

Aaron Jones. Sharks, can you go in with me, $5 bet on Aaron Jones going over 14 and a half yards for his longest run against the chiefs. Look, we've been over it. The chiefs,

they have terrible run defense. They are 29th and run defense DVOA this year. They have the fifth worst rate of, sorry, they get up the fifth most explosive runs, 26. It is, according to PFF, Jones has a 10.0

on the run defense strength of schedule, which is the best you can possibly get, according to PFF. Jeff. And Jones has nine runs of 15 plus yards this season with one in at least five of eight games. So just like he's an explosive guy, I think they're going to lean on him a little bit more in this game because of Jordan Love. I do think that they're going to utilize him in the passing game too. But I think we'll see his utilization in both the ground and the air tick up a little bit because he's one of their best players. They want to get the ball to their best players. So yeah, I think all those reasons together. Plus I just think, in this game in particular, they might lean on him a little bit more than AJ Dylan

just because they need that explosive element against this Chiefs defense if they want to keep up with, you know, Patrick Mahomes and what the offense can do for the Chiefs. And so all those reasons, I think he has at least one explosive run in this game, 15 plus yards. What do you guys? Let me ask you guys. Do you think that the Chiefs could employ the same strategy they used against Tennessee where they essentially agree to bottle up Derek Henry, in this case, AJ Dylan and Aaron Jones, and force Jordan Love to beat them with his arm?

Is that possible? It's my exact concern for this bet, is that it's basically, that is my exact concern. That they're just going to load the box. Well, they're basically just going to go in the first quarter and see, like, let's see how good Jordan Love is. And if he burns us early, sure.

Okay, we'll respect him. But we're not going to respect Jordan Love until he beats us. And then, like, if they have to adjust, they adjust. And I still think Jordan Love could be good, but I'm concerned that he, if he sucks, this won't happen. I also still like the idea of getting

like some type of money on Aaron Jones, maybe carries, something like that. The 14 and a half thing, I mean, Aaron Jones is prone to making big plays. Like he actually, I mean, once a game, he usually seems like he has a 40-yard run, so I like it. And D.K., you hit on the Eli Mitchell one last week,

and now you're all hot on these longest rush plays. I said that. Come on. I admitted it. The funny thing about you guys talking about the stack box, which is a very valid point, but part of me, part of my brain is also like, if they're crowding the line of scrimmage,

if you get one guy out of position, he can bust that run into the second level. It's almost like a plus. It's not. Yeah. I'm probably rationalizing. But you're incepting us to think that that's a good thing. It's like on those fourth and ones,

those fourth and ones where it's like everyone, I actually see what you're saying where like, in a weird way, the eight-man box helps you break a longer, like I actually see what you're saying. For this specific bet, that can help you. If you break through that first layer, it's much easier to get a long game.

But if you break... That's a funny one. If it's a normal defensive front and you break through that first layer, then there's a safety waiting for you. Can I counter you guys? Yeah. So you got over 63 for Jones?

No, no. You're saying over a run. And Craig, you're saying over three and have catches. The one I'm surprised no one put here is A.J. Dillon over 35 rushing yards. I'm surprised no one put that. To be quite honest, I didn't find it. I didn't see it.

Yeah, that's a good one, too. A.J. Dillin, I mean, So the Bears game, he had 11 carries for 59 yards. Last weekend, the Cardinals he had 16 for 78 yards. And the Chiefs have a terrible run day. And Dylan is getting more work. And I think they're going to have to sub Aaron Jones at him, like, out like more frequently. I think Dylan will have to get more of a workload on this that the Packers want to run more.

And I don't know. I kind of, if I had to rank your bets, I actually like the AJ Dylan over 35 yards the most. Wait, but this is, isn't this backwards, though? isn't this going against your argument against mine that they're going to crowd the box and try and shut down the run? Yeah, but 35 yards. I guess my point is, I think, the workload in rushing

between Aaron Jones and AJ Dillings, even enough that if Aaron Jones is over under 65 and A.J. D.N.L. 35 with the 35 with... I'm in on yours, D.K. I like that. Okay. Even though it's ill advised. And I shouldn't do it. I mean, sure, I'm admitting that. I'm going back to the well because I got a dopamine hit off of last week. My problem is we're going to see a 17-yard play from Aaron Jones.

This is going to be a catch. That's my real issue here. My issue with Craigs is that, generally speaking, I love this kind of bet. The over-on receptions, when you go down to a backup quarterback, is just a winner. My issue is that Aaron Rogers was already force-feeding Aaron Jones the ball. Okay. And so I'm wondering, is there actually an increase coming? Or is it actually going to go down?

Why would I go down? I suppose it wouldn't. Aaron Jones long the prop for Aaron Jones longest reception is exactly the same 14 and a half yards I'm sticking with I'm sticking with I'm sticking with run because I think he's going to have the double the amount of run attempts as he will catches. I think one thing that's interesting about the way Aaron Jones catches passes is it's not often checkdowns they design plays for him yeah you know so that's why I'm like he's going to have like four or five targets that are designed passes to him as well as Jordan Love potentially finding no one

open downfield and checking down to him, which is more likely to happen than with Rogers. All right, I'm in, I'm in. I'm in. I'm in all around. You're in on both? All right. I'm in two, D.K., I'm in on your 14 and a half. Wait, can we all collectively, I want to bet the AJ Dillon bet. If I would have found out, I would have bet that. I also just...

Let's add it. Tech it on. I also just really kind of think the Packers win this game. Maybe Jordan Love sucks. Maybe Jordan Love is great and they still lose. But I don't know. It's just saw it's the great wild card. I'm like... The State Farm Bowl. So wait, D.K. Or, Hifitz, I'm doing the, I will bet

if you want to make it mine, if you want to make it yours. I want to do the AJ Dillian bet. You want to do it? You can swap out. You want to just make it a fourth one? Or like, I don't know. Even if we don't do it on the show, I'm going to bet it. Didn't we say we need to give DK an extra one?

Because he just, all his players keep getting hurt between when we give these other ones. I had an extra one last week. I had an extra one last week. Okay, I'll give me an extra one. I'll take it. It doesn't matter. I'll raise the boy. Just go for it.

Hyphitz is breaking all kinds of rules today anyway. Who cares? Just go for it. All right. I think it's my turn. I want Chimar Chase under 75 receiving yards. How dare you? You're interesting.

You shall not. Come at me. Come at me. It's just the hype is too much. It's too much. I love Jim R Chase. He's really fun. I have him in Dynasty.

It's the best thing I've ever done with my life. Like, it's fantastic. The hype people are just trying to fly. The best thing you've ever done with your life. It is. They're flying too high. It's just 74 yards is a lot of yards. He had 32 yards.

last week. Yeah, but the week before that he had 200. Yes, he had 200 because he's great. But like, all these crazy yards... And then the week before that, he had 97. And then the week before that, he had 159. And then the week before that, he had 77. Yes, two things. One, a lot of those yard-aids are just like he's kind of doing wild shit. Right.

Like, he's just bouncing through three guys, or he's just breaking crazy tackles. And it's just things that are really cool. And I kind of think, you know, as a... We all know. You can't just bet on red because it's been red the last eight times. We all know that. We all know that. Patrick Mahomes interceptions.

We know that. But I think the real thing that skews me out here is that this is one of the bigger trench mismatches of the week. The Browns have like the best pass rush win rate of the entire league, which, you know, Miles Garrett bears the eye test. And the Bengals have like a bottom quarter pass block situation. I know they're not like the worst in the league anymore. And Burroughs been a little bit.

But they're not good. And I got Jonah Williams is going to have to block Miles Garrett. I'm not, let's just say I'm not enthused about the Bengals' overall passing situation. This isn't just like they lost to the jets and I'm overreacting. This is just like, I just don't know how much time Joe Borough has. I am concerned about that. And then you combine that with, I'm not saying Jamar Chase is bad. I'm not bad.

I'm just saying that 74 is pretty high. Jamar Chase can have 50 yards, two touchdowns, an incredible fantasy game. And we can still win this bet. not to change the subject but Joe Burrow pass attempts over under is 34 and a half he's gone over one time this year

that number no sorry he's gone over twice he's gone over two times out of eight games this year that's kind of a good one anyway what was yours again anyway I was thinking of my own bet I just thought like did you like ever listen to what we say

no I was the reason I thought of it is everything you just said about Jamar Chase in this mismatch in the trenches. I was like, oh, this is actually kind of good for. The past attempts one is interesting. The past attempts is 34. No,

he's always, recently they've ticked it up and he's been right around there. Yeah, the average isn't any good for him. Because really what I want to see this joke, you know, let me look,

because they have increased their past. Well, my problem is that he's beaten that number three, yeah, see, he's been that number each of like three of the last four weeks, which is more representative of his season.

I recognize that, but also everything you just said about that's, you know what? Yeah. But I'm not This is not my bet I'm just saying

But you're right though So which do you I'm curious which do you like But you like the Joe Burr Under and pass attempts More than Chase under 74 yards Because also the Browns I can totally see the Browns running

And controlling some of this game I'm not a yeah I'm not a huge fan Of the Jamar Chase under in this case So I think I'm going to be out For everything we've said about Jamar Chase Over the last few weeks How great he is How he's always good for like one or two big plays a week

For all those reasons since I'm out. And I do agree with you, though, the more I think about it, like they have their pass rate and their speed of offense has really ticked up over the last few weeks. So you only can look at

kind of like how they've been playing lately. And the over-under is a risky one in my mind. So anyways, I'm out on the Jamar Chase one, and I'm saying, never mind on the Burrow one. I do think it is an interesting one, though. I got to say, Hyphitz, the only thing

making me consider this bet is the Browns defensive line and the Bengals' offensive line. The Bengals' offensive line is terrible. Whatever the numbers say are what they say, but watching the game, like Miles Garrett going up against that offensive line terrifies me, and it makes me think that

they're either going to need to adjust and they can't chuck balls down the field to Jamar Chase or they're just going to get pummeled and Burroughs going to get hurt or this game's going to be a disaster for them. So, like, I kind of do like what you're saying here. So you know what? I think I'm going to invest

my money with you today. I'm in. Craig, I'm so glad we're bringing you on as an equity investor. I think we're going to plaster your name over our website. We're going to put you in the About Us section. I'd eventually like my own building on campus. You're going to have to donate a little more than that. Then $5? All right. 15 minimum. Okay. So, so D.K. was out? How much do you think you have to donate to a college to get a building named after you? Did you just see that thing about the Santa Barbara, University of Santa Barbara building? Oh, was this the Charlie Munger thing? Yes. I have to say, I, I, I, I have to say, I saw just enough to see the controversy, and I was like, I don't really get what's going on here.

He donated $200 million to the school. Did you say $200 million? $200. Charlie Munger? A lot of millions of dollars. Like Buffett's right-hand man guy? Yeah, Berkshire Hathaway guy. Anyway, he basically donated this money and said, there's only one stipulation.

I get to design the building all on my own. What a great retirement project. He's 97. And it's a shitty-ass building, isn't it? Oh, there's like a million fire hazards. Like, there's like two exits and there's like 3,000 kids in this in the building. It's a nightmare. Oh my God.

That's how you get a building named after you. Okay. Sharks. I want to stay in the spirit of offensive line and defensive line disparities here. I want to talk about Chicago, Pittsburgh. And I want to talk about Justin Fields' passing yards. I'm seeking a small investment of $5, potentially $10. For Justin Fields.

Do you have to design a building? No. the stipulation. I want to design a building. That's my stipulation. You honestly could probably design a better building. Just a death trap building. Yeah.

I like Jamar, I mean Jamar. I like Justin Fields under 185 passing yards today. Wow. He's only done that. He's only passed for more than 185 yards once this season. And this is one of the worst offensive line defensive line matchups of the year in any, between any teams.

He hasn't gone over 185 in the last four games straight. He's in Pittsburgh on the road, Monday night football. Sunday night football, but same vibes. No, it's Monday night. Oh yeah, Monday night. I'm an idiot. I'm actually doing a green room on Monday night after that game. So there you go.

Listen, tune in. That was just green room. There you go. He'll be talking about the wrong game, but you should still tune in. Jayzee Goff, Ryan Shezier will be talking about some other game. Is that, is our golf and Shazier come on? Goff and Shazir come on Monday night green room. So come on.

That's awesome. I mean, I hope Monday or Sunday. We've got to get the day right. No, it's Monday. It is Monday. Please tune out on Monday after the game. But the talent disparity here is just enormous. And the Steelers' defense is playing really, really well. And T.J. Watt is playing, like, defensive player of the year level good. And I think this is just a nightmare matchup for Justin Fields.

185. I don't know if he's going to get there. Yeah. So I hate to pile on to the field thing even more, but I'm with you on this one because the one thing I actually did kind of notice about how they were playing last week is he was much more decisive and willing to take off and run. than he had, then he seemingly had been earlier on in the season. Like he kept trying to hang in there. And that was one of the, you know, faults for him coming into the NFL was a little bit too slow processor, weights a little bit too much in the pocket for guys to get open and that he really need to kind of like speed up his internal clock and things like that.

In this last game when they played the 49ers, who by the way, also have some really good pass rushers. He was just much more willing to like take off right away. And that was huge. And that was why he had 10 rushes for 108, 100 and something yards. And by the way, I think like nine of those were scrambles. It wasn't like he was running. It wasn't like they were designing runs for him.

So I could see it being on the spectrum of like a Jalen Hertz type game where they drop back plenty, but he ends up just taken off and running and trying to create that way. So for all those reasons, I'm in with you on this one. Also, one of the better arguments to why you should side with me is Matt Nagy is likely back. He's going to be at the game. So that sucks. hopefully he gets the date wrong and shows up on Sunday Hi Fitz is ruminating

Craig yeah I'm in Nice Pittsburgh baby Craig if I had to ask you a question Sure if I had to set the over under on T.J. Watts Sacks at 1.5 what would you take? Oh That's very close I mean that's a good line

Uh I can see this one here's my point you had to think about it And this just leads into my bet about the same game, which is that TJ Watt tackles. Oh, wow. Combined tackles. So assist a count at three and a half.

Three and a half tackles for T.J. Watt. Like, I know that's like a weird, I know I'm throwing a defense to play right now. But it's doing defense now? I'm doing defense, but like, wow. This is Monday Night Football. First of all, have you ever known the Watts to pass up an opportunity to like kind of make it all about them? No. Come on. Let's be real.

I mean, like, but also, I mean, it's T.J. Watt against Jason Peters for the Bears. Jason Peters is 39 years old or whatever. Jason Peters is the oldest freaking offensive. He's one of the oldest offensive. He's too old. I mean, look at him.

He's old. He's too old. But T.J. Watt, first of all, he just needs four tackles. He has hit that every game this season except twice. And then now you're going against this Bears team. I like how you put that. Every game is a better when I said that, right?

Every game in the season except twice. It's like it sounds way better if you put it. it that way. I was like the best. Well, because you could have also, like, the worst way to say this is this is, he's hit this 60% of the time, which is also the same fact. You're like, hey, that doesn't satisfy. But that's not as convincing.

He's hit it every game this season, except twice. And he missed the game, so they only played six games, right? I don't care. I still like this bet, but that was great. I like it, too. The last two games, he's four tackles. He had six tackles and seven tackles in the last two games. I love it.

He's playing great. He seems healthy. Yeah, of any team in the NFL that this is going to work against, it's the Bears. Like, I hate to say it, but this is the perfect matchup for them. There is nothing more scary than when you think the Steelers are going to win a game in 2021, because that means it's a nightmare set-up scenario. So do we have a group chat? So we have a group chat on Watt and Fields?

I think we have a group chat on fucking everything. Do we have dissent beyond Craig didn't like my Mahomes one? I was out on one of them. I was out on your... Chimarchie. He didn't like chase. Yeah. Yeah.

Yeah. Dynasty Brain. What happened to the Commandment, D.K.? You're getting Dynasty Brain right on that bet. Well, part of it is I just want him to do well and I don't want to root against him. That's totally fair. I actually think that's a super valid reason for these things. Yeah.

I actually think this is a, I think it's a solid bet because he's been out producing well past his expected production because he's just creating these massive big plays. He's an outstanding playmaker. But, like, I actually think it could be a T. Higgins game too in this one because he's been getting more targets underneath and in the intermediate short area blah blah blah regardless i just want chase too well so i didn't want to bet against him sharks pitch us looking for ten dollars on this one corduro patterson 10 is a double what what craig's been doing or you're trying to double up crack right now yeah yeah we've been doing five or 10 whatever it's a round a good round number do 20 tell me you're

confident i'm not doing i'm not going that hard come on uh you guys have seen my record this year Let's be honest. Cortero Patterson over 32 and a half receiving yards this week against the Cowboys. Saints. Sorry, against the Saints. Yeah, I don't know why I mix that up. Regardless, Calvin Ridley is taking away time from football. That makes Cal Pitts, I guess, the number one receiving option and or the 1B, 1A, 1B with Patterson in this passing game, in my mind.

because the other guys in this offense, Russell Gage, Taji Sharp, Elamadez Zechias, Zekeas, and Christian Blake, among maybe a handful of others. I think that they're really going to funnel their targets funneled their offense

through both Pitts and Cordorale Patterson going forward. And I think the last... Sorry, do you hear Calvin? I do. I think this is tremendous content right here. He just woke up from a nap. Nice.

Dude, I am such... I am such a mess when I wake up from a nap too. Honestly, like, same. I sound like that. Full disclosure. Calvin had a cough this week. So he's been home all week. He does not.

Hey, we got him a COVID test. It's negative. Thank goodness. But he's been at home. So we've been doing the work while trying to take care of a kid thing all week. And I'm at my wits end. How is that, D.K. What should Craig and I have know for when that happens?

You should hit up Rogers and get Calvin immunized. Yeah, naturopathic. Some alternative home meal boost his platelets or something. Yeah, no, it's not fun. I wouldn't say it's fun to try and do a full-time job and take care of a child all day long. He's been watching a lot of Bluey.

For all the dads and parents out there, Bluey, greatest cartoon ever, really. It's an Australian show about a Blue Healer and their family, and it's great. It's funny. Good lessons. Australian what? A blue healer?

A dog. What's a blue healer? Oh, a dog. Dogs. It's about... Forget the bet you're recommending. Would you recommend having a child? Zero out of ten?

Would you recommend? Oh, yeah, absolutely. I would say nine, because if you're not ready for it, maybe don't. Or if you don't want to do it, don't do it. Okay.

If you're ready for it and or think that it sounds cool, go for it because kids are great. Calvin's the best. I like have no regrets whatsoever. I'm just saying, when he's sick and I'm trying to do my full-time job, it sucks ass. However, what was they talking about?

Craig, you said your friend has a red healer? Yes. So half of the family is red healers in this show, Bluey, and half the family. So the dad and one of the daughters are Blue Healers. The mom and one of the other daughters, Bingo, is a red healer, I believe. They're also called Australian Shepherds, I believe. Oh, I love Australian shepherds. I think.

I don't know they're called Red Heelers. Bottom line, it's a great show. They're not the same thing. Australian Shepherd, they're Australian Cattle Dogs. Oh, my God. Yeah, that. I love that. Okay.

When I watch the dog show every year, it's in, oh my God, I love the Australian Cattle Dogs. Got the little patch on the eye. What's the difference? I think the difference is a red healer is like an Australian Cattle Dog and a blue healer is who Aaron Rogers went to to get his immunization. Good segue. All right. Should we get back to the football thing?

All right. What was I talking about? Patterson. Over his last six games. Sorry for the little break there. No, don't apologize. People can now go. Oh, my God.

There's Australian catalog puppies. There's incredible pictures. D.K., why is his line so well? Looking at Patterson's, like, whole season, he's had, like, one game below this number. The line's low because the Saints' defense is incredible. But, like, we're talking about, like, check-down passes to Cordarell Patterson.

The Saints defense is incredible. Did you not hear me the first time? I used the same inflection and everything, just case you didn't hear. No, I'm just saying, that's the answer. I mean, that's good. It's not like... Here's my real question.

Is Marshawn Lattimore cover Kyle Pitts in this game, D.K.? Like, why wouldn't he? I think that he will at points, yeah. I don't know about, obviously not all the game. And I don't think Lattimore comes into the slot all that often to, like, follow guys into the slot and pits get around out of the slot. I think Patterson is going to be running receiver routes and catch passes out of the backfield,

which is why I like this one a lot. The over under is 32 and a half. The last six games, he's averaging six and a half targets of games. So out of those six games, he has gone under this number, 32 and a half one time. And he's gone over by a lot,

like, you know, over in that stretch of time. So I think he is going to be one of the focal points of the offense. I think he'll have an opportunity, like Craig said, kind of like dump off stuff over the middle where he can pick up yards after the catch. I saw this from the utilization report at PFF. Last week he played outside or in the slot on 41% of snaps,

and he saw 30% target rate on those plays. So when he's lining up as a receiver, he is a big focal point. Like he's getting a ton of targets in those looks. But also, like I said, he could get utilized as a past catcher out of the backfield, too. So, yeah, all in all, he's one of their best weapons. He's been playing really, really well.

I think that they're going to need him to step up with Ridley out and Pitts potentially being shadowed at times by Marsha and Lattimore. So yeah, I think all these things together, like it adds up for Patterson. Why should I bet on Correll Patterson when I could just bet against Mike Davis? Because it's more fun, more positivity in your life. That is underneath. That's a weekly mantra to live by High Fitz. Good point.

I'm in. My long shot's already about the Falcons. and they're just, I mean, Ridley's likely not going to play. They need to bet on Cordarelle, who hasn't really slowed down. I mean, I guess he has a little bit. He hasn't had like 30 points a game,

but like he's just actually a guy. Like, he didn't go away. He just is good now. So, yeah, I'm in. He's good. Plus, like, the whole problem early on was he wasn't getting a snaps, right? Like, there's no way he can continue at this rate

with touchdowns, all that. This is what we were saying earlier in the season. Like, there's no way he can continue at this rate because he's not playing enough. However, now he's playing a lot. So I think he can continue at this rate, in other words. So, yeah, I'm all about this one. Okay.

That's a group chat. I'll blow through this next one here. So, Sharks, this is the last bed of the day. Feels like everyone's going to be tired. Keep your energy up here. Dig deep into those pockets. Yeah. So I would like...

I feel like I'm at like a fundraiser here. I know. I should be like one of those auctioneer types. You know what the best auctioneer trick is? it's the last person to put their paddle up wins a fifth of really nice whiskey. So everyone's always trying to be like the last one to like donate 100 bucks or whatever.

It's fucking brilliant. Wow. I don't care how much money I have to spend. I'm getting that whiskey. Anyway, continue. Okay, the last one to put their paddle up doesn't have to babysit Calvin today. Yeah, that's good.

D.K's like, I'm in. Okay, so guys, sharks, I'm looking for a small investment, $5. on Darren Waller over 59.5 receiving yards. This is the second best titan in the league. He's coming off a bye to heal his ankle. He's to heal his ankle. He's practicing. Henry Ruggs, obviously, no longer

on the team. They're playing the Giants. Darren Waller leads the league is point one behind leading the league in targets. He's averaging nine targets a game. Fifty-nine and a half he pretty much has only hit this total. Sorry, he's pretty much only not hit this total in one game this year.

He has a, he's almost averaging around 65 yards a game receiving. He's I think he's gone under and hit 57 a few times. He has no duds. That's what I like about Darren Waller. They feed him. He doesn't have any duds. There's no two-catch 12-yard games out of him.

59 and a half, I think that much like the Derek Henry line that we bet two weeks ago or last week, it feels like it's kind of fizzling out. This is about as low as it's going to get for Waller, and then he's kind of going to bounce back and have one of his big games again. So 59 and a half feels really low

for a guy that I think has a realistic shot to finish this season as the number one tied-in in fantasy. I like this one a lot. actually, we'll put this too. We're on the same page today. Wow. I was looking at all the Raiders props that I could find because, you know, obviously with rugs out of the equation,

someone else is going to have to step up, whether it's Brian Edwards, who I just don't really trust at this point quite yet. And then Hunter Renfro, who it kind of more feels like he's already been playing sort of at his max in terms of his production. I don't know if he's necessarily going to be like a big boost in production. I think it's ultimately going to be Waller.

that ends up being you know, the guy that steps up for this offense and turns into, you know, the big play threat for them. So for all those reasons, I mean, I love this. I think Waller has been the by-low guy for the last few weeks and he's going to go off and everyone's going to remember kind of like

where he, like, why we liked him so much coming in this season. I am not going to bet against Darren Waller because, I mean, I can just very easily see him running roughshod over the Giants. Having said that, my concern is, first of all, I think James Bradbury saw a lot of Travis Kelsey against the Giants of money of football. I'm not sure exactly how much.

I don't know if it was quite a shadow. But I mean, Waller's just so obviously the number one pass catch from this team. I feel like the Giants can put Bradbury on him and basically be like, okay, cool. Who else can you get open? Well, that was, okay, Haifitz, that's a good point because my, when I first looked at this, I was like Brian Edwards, like his receptions over under right now is three and a half. It seems like a Hunter Renfro game to me. That seems like the Brian Edwards one.

I almost think you can see it in the line, right? Like you can see this in the lines they set that Vegas kind of sees the same thing. Darren Waller's 59 and a half. That's the number. Hunter Renfro's 58 and a half. That's why I didn't like it. I was like, I get it, you're right.

You can kind of see what they think how the game is going to play out within the line. But it's like, God, I'm going to bet on Hunter Renford to get 60 yards instead of Darren Walker. No, I think that that's why I stayed away from this because I thought the same thing of like, oh, Waller, but in reality, why are the Giants going to let Darren Waller be open?

In reality, you let everyone else be open. Is that the argument against the Raiders every week? How does he get yards then? That's my point. Waller doesn't get yards. Waller hasn't hit this number. How many times does Waller hit this number in the last five weeks? Well, three out of six games this year he's hit it.

But in the games, he hasn't, 54, 50, and 45. Like, he's right there every week. He's right there. Think about last year and how many times. Like, last year was a year when Ruggs was not really a huge factor in the offense. And this is when Walder was at his best taking off. And now this year it seemed like Derek Carr's spreading the ball around more because they have more talent like Brian Edwards and Henry Ruggs. And Waller's production has gone down.

So my thinking was maybe this reverts back to, hey, all we have now is Darren Waller again. I'm not betting against Waller, but I'm not betting on him either. I'm just staying away from this because I just think the fact that Renfro and Waller have the same over under is to meet a red flag. I get it. I thought the same thing. But ultimately, I was like, they have. have to throw to somebody. Someone's got to catch passes.

Someone's got to catch passes. All right. I'm out. All right. Okay. Fine. Bad quarterback time, baby. If you don't already know, you can play in Fandall.

You go to NFL game styles. We are there at the bottom. You can compete against us. It is fun. You can also go to fandole.com slash bad QB. You want quarterbacks to do bad. You don't want quarterbacks to do good. So, you know, you want Davis Mills when he has like,

you know, 50 passing yards and you don't want Davis Mills when he's got like 300 against the Patriots or whatever he had. So like that's, that is the key. So we break it in tiers. Okay, tier one, big tier one week. P.J. Walker and or Sam Donald against the Patriots, Davis Mills and or Tyra Taylor against the Dolphins, Tassum Hill and or Trevor Simeon against the Falcons, Dak Prescott and or Cooper Rush against the Broncos. There you go. This is like the backup quarterback backball right here. Yeah, this is bizarre. Obviously not taking Jack Prescott. He's not a bad quarterback. He's a good quarterback. So I wanted to point out that sometimes you can bet on a player who might not play in the game, depending on if it's a game time decision. Like you could bet PJ Walker

and Sam Donald would play. I think the guy who won last week started a player who ended up not playing. You could do that. He'll get you zero points, which is a decent performance. However, you're risking, you know, a tier one guy like a Davis Mills throwing four picks and you get 20 positive points. If you're risking that by starting somebody like PJ Walker. So while you could do it, it might not be as fun. Well, with that being said, I chose PJ Walker. I think it's trending. I don't know.

Look, it's Thursday afternoon. I thought it was trending towards Walker starting. It sounds like Darnold is kind of slow to come back. Plus, he has a ankle or a knee injury in addition. Yeah, I think PJ Walker is probably going to play. They might just look to not get him involved too early. Plus, I guess with the way he's been playing, his inability to protect himself,

there's a chance he could re-injure it. So I don't know, I'm going to PJ Walker. He's, look, Donald has not looked good, but PJ Walker has not. He's really struggled when he's come in, in relief of Donald of late. So I'm going PJ Walker just because I think, you know, he has a chance to score a lot of negative points,

score a lot of plus points here. I totally agree. I think PJ Walker against Bill Belichick is a shoeing. I think I did not pick him because, I actually want Davis Mills to break the system like Craig did. My issue is, I think the whole reason they're playing PJ Walker, like they benched Donald for him a few weeks

ago because they don't think he's going to turn the ball over. And I think that's his only job in this game. So you're going with the guy who's not going to play? Yeah, you convince me. After all that. Yeah. Okay. Tier two. Tier two is Trevor Lawrence against the Bills, Jimmy G.

and or Trey Lance against the Cardinals, Mack Jones against the Panthers or Teddy Bridgewater against the Cowboys. I want Trevor Lawrence because I think he actually should be a tier one guy against the bills this week because they're going to have to throw and the bill's defense is so good and I just feel like bills D against the rookie against the rookie quarterback I think will have a pick maybe 100% agree dude they've been running their offense through Carlos Hyde Dan Arnold and Jamal Agnew I went with Trevor Lawrence also and the bill's number one and weighted DVOA this that's incredible all right

Tier three is Matt Ryan against the Saints, Tua against the Texans, Baker against the Browns. Baker against the Bengals and Danny Dimes against the Raiders. I wasn't that Ryan, man. The Saints DeSons is playing really well. So did I. I feel like we're all on the same page here. Give me Baker.

That's a good one. Do you want to take Baker in revenge mode? Baker got called out within the family. Baker without Odell Beckham on the road in Sincey with no arm. No one believes in him. What is Baker's record when people? People doubt him. His brain doesn't believe in his left arm to work.

I actually think the whole reason the Browns are bad is because everyone started believing in the Browns, and Baker's literally never had that experience in his life. Baker's only been doubted, and the second people were like, we think you're going to win the Super Bowl. He had no idea how to motivate himself. See, now back in the game,

I'm not bet. You can't bet against them when everyone's betting against them. I'm happy to play the game, Greg. I'm happy to bet against Baker-Bee. I'm happy to bet against them. This is like a reverse-reverse psychology. Reverse, reverse. There's definitely SpongeBob reference in there.

Okay, Tier 4. Joe Burrow against the Browns, Derek Carr against the Giants, Kirk Cousins against the Ravens, Jaylen Hertz against the Chargers. Oh, God. I don't know why I did this, but I went Burrow,

and I think it's because of everything we talked about earlier, the offensive line, defensive line thing. Wow. I think Burrow is the only quarterback to throw two touchdowns in every game.

I don't know, though. Yeah, I'm like regretting my choice already. No, I'm taking Burrow for that reason. I think Burrow, you have to go, you have to zig a little bit when people's ag.

Burrow's like been playing the best of the guys in this tier, and I want him for that reason because I think he's going to not be great. I will go with Jalen Hurtz, who I think could get benched this week. Minchu time, baby. D.K.

I want to burrow. I'm sticking with Burrow, even though it's probably ill-advised. Tier 5. Tanna Hill against the Rams, Justin Herbert against the Eagles, Rogers, and or Jordan Love against the Chiefs, and Matt Staffer against the Titans.

Well, you could choose Rogers here, and it might actually be the smart move. Absolutely, let's do Rogers. He's not playing. Guarantee yourself a zero? Hell yeah. Fandle with the glitch in the system. All right.

Definitely not playing. Tier 6 is Mahomes versus the Packers, Kyler versus the 49ers, Lamar against the Vikings, and Josh Allen against the Bills. Got to go Kyler here, don't you? 100% banged up against the Niners on the road?

Yeah, he's probably not going to play. Bulky ankle. We're just choosing guys that we're going to play. I mean, honestly, in Tier 5 and 6, that's the smart play. Love that money. Lo that money. Love them stars.

Give us them five stars. No, really, give us the five stars. We love the star. We're thirsty. It's a thirst trap, a podcast thirst trap. Give us the stars in Spotify. Hit the little three dots on the show page. Hit the three dots.

Rate the show. Give us the five stars. We love the stars. I still can't see the stars. You can't see the star. Hopefully you weren't chosen. Yeah, I know. I used to see them.

I don't get it. I don't know what happened. Maybe one day. I lost them. They took them away. All right. Thank you for listening. Thank you, D.K.

Thank you, Craig. Other people think? Oh, we're doing green room at noon Eastern on Sunday. we do start sick green room it's app we tweet out the link right around noon eastern check it out and we start said advice it's not just a chat like you can actually come up stage and like talk to us we go through as many starts sits as you can we do that every week we try to get as many as you can please check it out we tweet the link out right at noon where you can download the spotify green room app and yeah we go through all the start sit

stuff so you can talk to us there and um i also am doing that mondayette football green room after my football jason gohs joseph from the full go our chicago podcast and ryan shazir who obviously was on the Pittsburgh Steelers for the Bears Steelers game. That'll be after the Green Room. That's fun. And thank you, Lord. Lord. Thank you, Norman Greenbaum.

Ooh, spirit in the sky. Classic remember the Titan song. My favorite movie soundtrack of all time. That is the, dude, ain't no mountain high enough. is a is like just I actually think

it's my favorite song the whole album Cat Stevens is on it everybody it's a great it's a great soundtrack Ain't O Man High enough is kind of a good

karaoke song because it's short it's kind of a hard song to sing though but yeah oh yeah I'm a terrible singer but if you're good it's like two minutes

that's not bad I like tequila for karaoke you just go nah nah nah nah you just don't do anything the whole time dance

Just go tequila, 175 bars. That's really funny. I can't sing. And I was doing karaoke earlier this year, and I thought to myself, what is a song where you don't need to be able to sing?

And I was like, oh, I'll do photograph by Nickelback, brought down the house. Oh, that's good. Anytime you do like that kind of raspy little pearl jammy style song. Look at this photograph.

And it's like great. Even if it's bad. The worse it is, that means you're doing great. Very true. Or you just get a song that everybody will sing in on immediately like Mr. Brightside and then by then everyone's singing

then it barely even hear you. Shout out to Sean Yu, who had the best former producer here who had the best karaoke performance I've ever seen. What song? Full bar. Follow me. And he literally gets up there

and after an hour of making friends with these giant table of nurses there who were there for Children's Hospital event literally gets up and it's like, shout out all the nurses, the Children's Hospital. All these drunk nurses go, and then it was like, all right, everyone clap along with me.

You ever heard someone in a full bar karaoke, like, please clap, and then everyone does? People ordering drinks at the bar clapped. I couldn't believe it. Is it Follow Me by Uncle Cracker, or who are you talking about? Yeah, that one. Okay. Good song. Anyway, it's a great karaoke song.

All right, there you go. That's your real advice. If everyone, if we're still listening, and or this makes it the podcast, that's the best advice you're going to get the whole time. Tequila's good. Follow me is good. You're good. Goodbye, everyone.