The Ringer NFL Show - The 2021 No. 1 Pick Debate

Episode Date: June 14, 2021

We are back for the 2021 season and begin our preparation with the age-old question: Who is the no. 1 pick in fantasy this year? We discuss who should be drafted first, who could be drafted first, who definitely shouldn’t be drafted first, and who could be in the 2022 no. 1 pick conversation after this season. Christian McCaffrey, Panthers (6:25) Dalvin Cook, Vikings (10:28) Derrick Henry, Titans (13:16) Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys (19:58) Saquon Barkley, Giants (24:58) Alvin Kamara, Saints (32:24) Jonathan Taylor, Colts (38:57) Cam Akers, Rams (43:26) Joe Mixon, Bengals (50:50) Najee Harris, Steelers (52:51) Check out our new top 150 half-PPR 2021 fantasy rankings here! Email us! [e-mail] Hosts: Danny Heifetz, Danny Kelly, and Craig Horlbeck Producer: Craig Horlbeck Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What if the Len Bias story hosted by Jordan Ritter-Kahn is the Ringer's latest narrative podcast. You can find new episodes every Wednesday on the Book of Basketball 2.0 feed. Here's a quick trailer. You've heard his name, Lynn Bias, 1980s phenom, second pick in the NBA draft. And then, cocaine, tragedy, one of the most shocking deaths in sports history. 35 years later, Bias' legacy is still making an impact. From Spotify and the Ringer Podcast Network, this is What If, the Lynn Bias story. I'm Jordan Ritter-Con.

Welcome back to the Ringer Fantasy Football Show. My name is Danny Hyfitz. I am joined by Danny Kelly and Craig Coralbeck, and we have some news. Podcast news up first. We are back. We are here at the Ringer Fantasy Football Show. We will be coming to you on Mondays and Thursdays for the next month. Is that already not true, Craig?

It's true. You nailed it. Good job. Great. Then we'll be going to you three times a week at some point in July or something. But for right now, for a month, we are doing Mondays and Thursdays. That is when the Ringer Fantasy Football Show will be here for you. And then more news. We have released our initial top 150 rankings on the ringer.com.

You can look at our top 150. It is the half PPR rankings of what we did. So you can check that out. If you want, you can pull it up and peruse it while we have our episode today or any episodes in the future. I'll put it as the link in the description of the pod. You can click the rankings. A link in the description. Look at that.

You know what? That's what synergy is. Extremely helpful. Unbelievable, Craig. What would we do without you? We've grown. We've grown. We're growing.

We're growing, boys. All right, later this summer, we will also be releasing our full-fledged draft guide at fantasy football. Dot the ringer.com. That's where we're going to blow it out with all our player bios and everything. The one that looks beautiful. It's going to have a top 200. It's going to be amazing.

That will be later July. Listen, folks. thought last year's fantasy show slash guy was a lot this year. I mean, we got, we're going full fledged here. We got everything. No COVID this year, you know, knock on wedged. There is going to be an NFL

season. We don't have to worry about that. We're fledglings. Yeah, we're fledglings. It's a weird. It's a weird. I think we're more than fledglings. I don't like the term. Honestly, the word fledge is weird. I regret using it already. Anyway, and then also, if that doesn't weigh your appetite, Danny Kelly has, I said that

we're Danny. Danny. He's not Danny. He's not Danny. like the chain. Danny Kelly has the his rookie rankings top 60 for dynasty. If you like dynasty, you know how addicting that is. And if you don't like dynasty, you probably will once you start doing it. So check the rankings out because they're really fun to peruse. And also he's 100% correct and everyone else is wrong. So that's always exciting. Get back at me in like four years and we'll confirm that statement. But yeah, I think it's exactly right. We already sent your rankings to freezing cold takes and we're just waiting for the how good. a little 2024 tweet.

Okay, so with all that said, again, our top 150 is out there. Today, we will be talking about the top one pick, all the people you could like even reasonably take with the first pick in drafts this year, basically who you could pick first with a straight face. We're going to go in the order of the guy, of the running backs that we ranked.

Sorry, there's no receivers we're going to take first. But we're going to go in the order of the running backs as we rank them and we're going to just go through, really just how obvious is this pick? how realistically you're going to make it. So we're going to, but before we do that exactly, just to kind of zoom out for a second, DK, what are you looking for in a first overall pick

instead of just a dope-ass running back? Like, what do you actually want out of that player? I kind of feel like, so the question I think is, are you going for ceiling or floor with this pick? Because... Yeah, risk or safety? Right, because, like, you can't miss on the number one pick and do well, probably.

Like, I guess you, could maybe like luck into a guy later, but like odds are if you if you really strike out with your first overall pick, it's going to be very difficult for you to like win your league because of the opportunity cost loss there. Your other like league mates are going to get these elite guys in the first round. And so I think I lean like really high floor because I don't want to miss on that pick. But at the same time, like if you want to win your league, like you're trying to win your league. You're trying to be number one in your league. You're not trying to be like top five, right? If you want to win your league, really you probably should be chasing ceiling. And therefore, you know, I think I kind of fall

right in the middle. I think you're probably better off chasing ceiling, though. Like, go for the guy that you think is going to just absolutely wreck shop week in and week out and have these spike weeks that are going to win you weeks and have these weeks in the playoffs that are going to win you your league. So I would say go for ceiling. Does that make sense? Don't you kind of think that this is basically just a health question? I mean, any guy you're going to take in the top five, like when you say safety DK, you basically mean like whatever running back you take, as long as he finishes as a top six running back at his position, you'd think that's worth it, ish? Yeah.

Top five, maybe? Top six or seven or eight or whatever. Just like as long as he doesn't suck, he's like not going to fuck you over essentially. I mean, if you go back and look at all the top four picks in the last 10 years, like, it's kind of rare that these guys don't finish as a top six or seven or eight back unless they get hurt, you know what I mean? So it's like, is health the number one factor? I know it's hard to predict health,

but should that just be like, who's not going to get hurt? I'm going to take that guy. Yeah, but how do you predict that? Well, I guess past history, you know, guys like Dalvin Cook and Zeke are like on opposite sides of the spectrum, you know, Sequin on the opposite side of the spectrum.

This actually, this is a really good segue to the kind of the most obvious no-brainer, top pick going into 2021. That's Christian McCaffrey, obviously, who is coming off of a major injury. He missed most of last season. He hurt his ankle, had shoulder injuries. does this worry you going into 2021 with the amount of volume that he's had

and coming off an injury that maybe we're overrating this? Maybe we actually think, maybe we are too sure that he's going to get this volume. Does that worry you at all because of the injury, like situation that happened last year?

Well, I mean, he's going up against two other guys in his class who have more of an injury history in Saqueline Barclay and Dalvin Cook. Yeah. And then we can get into Kamara and Zeke later, but with McCaffrey, I mean, to me, he's the closest thing to having two players at the same time on the field. I mean, he's the biggest threat to run for 1,500 yards and catch 100 passes.

And there's no other guy who I think is really in that conversation. I would say the only devil's advocate for McCaffrey is like, I guess we've only seen him in three games with Matt Rule and Joe Brady. And we have Sam Darnold now. Like, are there more unknowns? That part does not bother me. The Matt Rule as the head coach and Joe Brady is the offensive coordinator, does not bother me because when McCaffrey went down, Mike Davis, if you only count the weeks McCaffrey missed, Mike Davis was a top five running back.

No one's out here being like Mike Davis is an elite player. And Mike Davis was an elite fantasy player when he was gone. 80% of CMC is a joke. Actually, when I was going through and like thinking about this, this exercise or whatever, I kind of had forgotten just how freaking absurd McCaffrey's volume has been over the last few years. He plays 97-ish percent of the play.

plays. He's like two players. He's like, he had over a thousand yards receiving in 2019. The last time he was like a last time he was healthy and on the field. Over a thousand yards. So basically Craig, what you're saying is what is absolutely true.

He's like having two, he's like having an extra guy in your starting line because he's a receiver and of running. It's crazy. I mean, listen, if you go back to 2019, he was in first place in points with 413 and the next guy had 290. People don't need us to tell.

Yeah. No one needs us to tell them. McCaffrey's. Well, you need a reminder. I feel like you have recency bias, you know? I mean, yeah. Like, I'm, I'm freaking, I live in the fantasy world and I'm just like, I couldn't it even surprised me like looking back. I was like, holy shit. Like, this is insane how much how much volume he'd got. The points per game gap, and I think we'll talk about this all off season, but points per game is a more, is a better way to look at things generally than

overall because it can be skewed easily. The points per game gap between McCaffrey and like the second guy a couple years ago was basically the gap between the gap between the. the second guy in like 15. Like it was out of control. Like it was like a full ass, like starting player was the difference. It was like, it was like 33% more points per game than the next guy. So having said that, my concern is this is offensive lines pretty bad. Does that bother you at all?

And just generally for like a number one pick, what are you looking for? Because we have a, if you're talking about safety, we have a variable quarterback with whatever you think of darnold at quarterback now. And then you also have a good right tackle in Taylor Moten, Moton, Moton. I can't say his name. But the left side of the Panthers offensive line is maybe the worst in the NFL. They have two dudes like Cam Irving and Pat Elf line

that were cast off by teams that need offensive linemen. So, D.K., does that bother you when a top pick might just have a bad line or who cares McCaffrey at 1,000 receiving yards and plays every snap? I mean, I lean towards the ladder. It's one of those things where, like, it'd be nice if it was the elite Cowboys' Offensive line

of the, you know, the Zeke era or whatever, where it's like, you know, he's just going to freaking eat behind this offensive line. However, you're like, you're just chasing volume. And that's exactly what you're doing.

You don't really have to worry about the offense line because you know he's going to get 130 targets in the passing game. Like, it's absolutely absurd. So especially in half PPR and PBR, it's something that you maybe like can look at and pay attention to, but it shouldn't actually push him down your, like your list.

I think if Dalvin Cook, and we can pivot to him maybe, I think if Dalvin Cook was guaranteed to play every game, I think I'd pick him first. Okay. So McCaffrey's the first. in our rankings, I think unanimously, unanimously two in our rankings.

So why do you feel that way, Greg? There's just so many less variables with the Vikings in Dalvin Cook than there are with McCaffrey and the Panthers. Like all this stuff you just said, the offensive line, we have Sam Darnold. Like, we know what we're going to get. Like it's Kirk, it's Zimmer,

it's two strong receivers, they're going to have a good offense, they have a good offensive line, and he's so dominant every single week and he's like a really fantastic receiver. When he's at his best, I think he's just as good as McCaffrey and might even be better on the Vikings.

D.K., you would not take Dalvin Cookover McCaffrey first. But if you saw someone else in a draft do that, are you going to laugh and be like, what an idiot? Or are you going to be like, oh, yeah, okay, sure, I don't know. No, I don't think I would laugh. I think he's, like Craig lays out a good scenario where it's easy to see him being, you know, the top running back in fantasy this year. There's a lot of variables in Carolina that we just don't really know, especially coming

off the season where he only played like three games. He's only healthy for two games. Chris McCaffrey, I'm talking about. Cook is just so explosive. He's very good in the passing game. Like Craig said, he's, like, awesome in the screen game. He's a really, really good running back. He's going to get the volume.

FantasyPoint.com does this thing where they have the expected fantasy points per game. And he was second in the NFL last year in expected fantasy points per game. Behind Christian McCaffrey. But, yeah, Dalvin. Sorry, I think it was behind. Hold on. Let me check that.

I think maybe it was behind Derek Henry. I'm just saying it's an argument. You know, like, I think, I think it is, he's firmly the only guy I would say, yeah, I could see taking him over Christian McCaffrey. I mean, he had 360 touches last year in 14 games. He had 16 rushing touchdown, 1,600 yards rushing. I mean, every week, he, maybe it's just because McAfrey didn't play last year, and Cook kind of assumed that role.

Like, he was the guy dropping like 220 yards a game. But the reason he bias of it all, I think I would maybe take Delvin if he played every game. Yeah. And it was, it was, he was. second only to Christian McCaffrey and expect fantasy points per game. He's second only to Derek Henry in rushes per game. So obviously he's a huge part of their ground game, but he's also very good in, you know, in the air attack and everything. So there's no competition for him really to get targets. Like they draft a guy in the fourth round this year. I think Alexander Madison is kind of just a guy. Sorry for all the Madison truthers out there. But I don't know. I just think, yeah, they're going to, they're going to, as long as he can say healthy, and this is the same argument you have with Christian McCaffrey. But I think we know. know more about what Cook is going to do in this offense than we do with what McCaffrey's going to do in the Panthers offense, right? Or at least there's a longer established history anyway.

There's a weird dynamic here, which is that even though we have Dalvin Cook at second, we have Derek Henry at third. And I think way more people will take Derek Henry first than Dalvin Cook. I think that 80% of drafts McAfee's going to go first or 75%. And then everyone else, if you're not taking McCaffrey, you're going to take Derek Henry. And part of me, the question is we're talking about McCaffrey injuries up top. Dalvin Cook, if you'll play 16 games, I would take him over McCaffrey. But Derek Henry is like this workhorse tank. I constantly have FOMO that I don't have him on my team.

And I'm just wondering if, like, am I crazy for not really putting him in this, in the same conversation at the level of Dalvin? Like, are we all, like, that, I don't know. Like, should Derek Henry be more on this conversation? Listen, I doubt Derek Henry every single year. Every single year he's doubted. There's always a reason to, like, fade him, yeah. I wrote them down.

Here are the reasons why we've doubted Derek Henry every year. In 2018, it was always splits time. And it was like, okay, okay, and then he took off. And the next year, it was like, okay, cool. He got hot at the end of the 2019. Remember that he got hot for, like the last five games in season? He was like 200-yard game against, like the Texans or whatever they were trying. He's his big, brilliant.

Can he do it for a full year? Then he does it full for a full year. And then we go, okay, cool, he did it full for a full year. Well, I can't do that for a full year. But the Titans office. Or it's rusty, we're back. But the Titans offense, it was completely unrealistic. You know, he doesn't catch past.

His regression is coming. Then regression doesn't come. And he does it again. They do it for a full year and just prove the regression. And now we're like, well, you know, I mean. And we're like, well, I mean, can he keep this up? We're in tear? He's a big guy.

That's where I'm at right now. This is the Travis Kelsey thing that we do every year. No, he's the Jacob de Grom of football. Like, Jacob de Grom for five years in a row has just added a mile an hour to his fastball. And he's just getting better. And it defies all logic. Derek Henry has ran for more rushing yards every year of his career.

It is unbelievable. He literally has gone from 500 to 750 to 1,000 to 1,000 to 1,000. And we're out here like, why is he not the number one thing? He has increased his touchdowns basically every year of career. He went from 5 to 5 to 12 to 16 to 17. and I understand the regression thing but sometimes when you're the absolute best in class that doesn't actually matter

right listen it's like days and confused like I keep getting older Derek Henry's stats stay the same like it's just not changing To me I see him as Marshawn Lynch Every year in fantasy I never drafted Marshawn Lynch I don't know why I was just like hey he's not going to do it again this year And he just continues to do it over and over and over

32 yeah In addition I'm with you guys like in addition to all the things that you just said like, you know, I doubt him every year and he still like does it. He's the outlier of outliers. He's no one's built like him. You know, everyone's always like, oh, he's going to wear it down. Look at all his, look at what he had in college, like his workload in college.

He's going to wear it down. He's going to wear down. Dude, he's not wearing down yet. And you want to bet against this guy that's like basically been like one of the biggest outliers in the NFL? I don't know. 378 rushes last year is absolutely absurd. that's 66 more carries. If you're chasing, if you're chasing volume,

like we always talk about chasing volume. Like, Derek Henry had 378 rushes last year, which is 66 more than the second place guy. That's like him having, in reality, like three extra games of like most of the other, like most of the other type guys. Like say, okay, maybe like one other guy. It's closer to four, really. Right.

Like, how many rushers get 20 plus a game? Like only like a very few, 20 plus carries. So, like, he's had, he basically was, like, maybe three extra games. It's like having three extra games of rushing attempts. Derek Kennedy has an extra month of work. Obviously, the downside is he's not involved in the passing game. That's obvious. Like, we get that.

I don't, but I think throwing that as like, but he doesn't pass. He just has four extra weeks of running. I think the actual problem is they have a new offensive coordinator. Yeah, I was going to say, can we play? What is the excuse of 2021 for Derek Henry? Like, what is the Arthur Smith thing? It's he went to Atlanta. and now we're like, well, are they going to be able to have this offense?

Because it's not just Henry, it's the whole Titans, right? No one wants to call Ryan Tannahill an elite quarterback, even though if you just sort any efficiency stat of any choosing. Yards per attempt, quarterback rating, passer rating. It's Patrick Mahomes and Ryan Tannahill, basically, for like all of these stats with a dash of Drew Brees. And like, no one wants to call right. No one wants to put Tannahill in the same sentence as Mahomes.

In fantasy somehow, Derek Henry is the most fun player to own. and yet no one wants to rank him first. Many places don't want to rank him second, including us. I feel dumb for doubting him. And part of me knows that in like September 30th, Derek Henry will be almost at 1,000 yards or something. And Dalvin Hook will have a hamstring pole. And I'm going to feel like a moron.

Derek Henry, I'm just looking at this more. Derek Henry had... Doesn't catch passes, though. He had over... Dude, he had over a hundred more carries than the third place guy in terms of total carry. last year. Over a hundred. So, but seriously, though, Dika, how much do you think, so the new offensive coordinator

is Todd Downing for the Titans? How much do you think that matters in terms of getting Henry work? Because obviously, like, Derek Henry had, I don't know, twice as many rushing yards under Arthur Smith than he did the rest of his career. Yeah. It's a variable that creates a lot of uncertainty. However, you have to, I mean, I feel like you have to assume he's going to know, like, what the calculus of, like, their offense is. after he spent the last couple years there, right? Like, it's not like you're going to come in and completely change things.

Like, they've been one of the most efficient, explosive offenses. So I would assume, however, you can't assume anything with NFL coaches. Hopefully Arna Smith left his, like, binder on the desk, and he can just open that up.

Just play the style that you've been playing. I think we, I think it's safer to assume that that's going to be the case than like to assume it would change drastically. Yeah. All right. Let's keep rolling here.

So we have McCaffrey first. We've Dalman Cook second. We've Derek, 3rd. I think I just talked myself out of that in the previous segment. No one's going to bat an eyebrow or eyelash eyebrow. No one's going to bat an eyelash if any of these guys go first, right?

People will be like, oh, okay, so you've got a good feeling about this guy. That's fine. I think so. I agree. I think there is a miniature tier drop here where if you take the next few guys first, there is a little bit of like a hmm. The text chain starts blowing up. You're like, oh, bold.

Yeah, the group check gets a little more feisty. Did you mean? Did you to do that? Yeah. Yeah, exactly. All right, so we have fourth. We have Ezekiel Elliott. So, Elliot was bad last year, D.K. Why do you have him fourth?

I'm actually still pretty bullish on Elliot, even, and because a couple of reasons. Number one, I think he actually looked pretty good when everything was going right for the Cowboys' offense last year. In fact, through four games, in other words, before Dak broke his ankle and everything fell apart. Zeke was the RB4 in half PBR, 19.2 points per game. And he finished the season six. than expected fantasy points. So it's not like he really fell off. He's still getting the volume.

I think he's going to come in pretty motivated this year for whatever reason. Maybe that's just a hunch. But I think this, I just want to bet on this Cowboys offense. I think they're going to score a ton of points. Even if Elliot maybe doesn't carry the ball quite as much, I think he's still going to be very involved in the passing game. And I think he's just going to have a good bounce back.

I think people are like, people are talking like he's kind of washed up, and I'm not buying that yet. I still think he's going to be, you know, an elite fantasy rusher. And if this offense looks like we think it will look like, he's going to score a shitload of touchdowns. Well, here's the thing with the Zeke Elliott. I think it's kind of a trendy thing to say, well, Tony Pollard was better than Zeke at certain times last year. Which is true, kind of. But the problem is, you know who doesn't probably really super care about that are like the people who run the Cowboys?

Like Jerry Jones does not care. Like, is Zeke Elliott is playing? That's the guy. Pollard's playing receiver. Paulard is playing receiver in training camp. He's like lining up and running as a receiver. Like, he's not going to be their starter. It's Zeeke.

So, like, Zeke is going to play for this team. He's going to play three downs every game. And one, there's only a small handful of dudes that I'm like, that dude's playing three downs. And the difference, as Craig mentioned, Zeke just doesn't have the injury history of these other dudes do. The other dudes do. I know that he did miss some time last year.

But this was a worst case scenario. Like, think about what happened to the Cowboys last year. Their defense was so bad. Just knocked my desk. We are rusty. So do you see that? That was hilarious. I'm keeping all that.

Keep going. That was fucking hilarious. I was knocked my computer over. I was so excited to, I was just so excited to recount how bad the Cowboys were. I just couldn't control myself. But think about what happened. Their quarterback got hurt. Their left tackle got hurt.

And then their right tackle got hurt. That's a nightmare, right? Then the backup quarterback got hurt, the backup left tackle got hurt, and the backup right tackle got hurt. That is unbelievable. And he got COVID. Ben Danucci? And they got COVID. Wasn't Ben Danucci starting games last year?

I feel like. He sure was. I can't remember if that was a fever dream or what, but like. Wasn't that like Sunday or Monday night football? It was. Yeah. Against the Steelers, this poor kid who met Mike McCarthy in an elevator and then he drafted him. It's unbelievable.

Anyway, I think that Zeke, at the end of the day, this offense won't be as good as last year because obviously, like for the four weeks that sample size is small. Oh, like the 450-yard passing games every week, yeah. This is the safest bet for a top five offense, and he's the three down back. And if we're talking about floors, oddly, I think Zick has one of the highest ones. Yeah, I mean, to back that up,

I think you can make the argument that Zique has all the qualities you want in the number one overall pick more than any of these guys, maybe even McCaffrey. I mean, he's never really been hurt. He's in a good offense. He's got a good quarterback. He's the goal line back. And he catches.

He's had 61 catches a year, the last three years. Like, he has everything. All the other guys are missing. He just, I guess maybe doesn't have the ceiling. I think, I agree with you guys. And I'm actually, like, way more bullish than maybe the consensus is on Zieg. But I think right now, the consensus is like this would be like a donkey pick. Like, you look like an idiot if you make this pick.

Don't you think? I don't know No I think it's Recy bias I think the Cowboys were just so bad last year Julio Jones is on undisputed like being like

No they suck I don't want to play for them Like it's just so trendy To make fun of the Cowboys fan I'm a Giants fan Also I think people think Zieg is older than he is He's 25 Derek Henry's 27

Just to let everybody know Yeah no Because Zik has been around so Zika didn't even really have An integer history in college either man Like it's just It's just recentcy bias He sucked last year

And everyone who drafted Zick was mad about it But that was a perfect storm of problem for the Cowboys. All right, here's the flip side, though. We're talking right now about how high Zeke Elliott's floor is. I want to spend an hour on this person.

We have Sequin Barclay Fifth. I think that everyone understands Seekwon's ceiling as, like, one of the craziest athletes in a league of crazy athleticism. I feel like Sequin has a sneakily low floor and is, like, quietly a very risky guy to take in the top five.

DK, am I just a neurotic giant? fan or what? No, I don't think you are. I think he is among maybe this group of guys, like you said, essentially the wide, like the widest variance player in this group because there's already talk like he's coming off this major, major knee injury, ACL. I think he tore his MCL too, which is, makes it a little bit more worse. He had ACL and meniscus surgery. Yeah. And so there's already talk about limiting him early on in the season. Now, that could just be talk, but it's not like you can ignore it. This is the same team. I don't know if the same coaches are in place, but this is the same team that basically rushed back to put him in the lineup and give him like a full workload

after he had a high ankle spray in like two weeks after this. So it's not, you know what I mean, it's not like maybe. I think what happened was he pushed to play and they listened to him and they regretted it. Well, maybe I guess my point is like we don't know for sure that they're actually going to limit him. Once game start, once these teams like have to win, are they really going to take him off the field? It's my point. Like, you know what I mean? So we'll see. to your point, we can look at what they're doing. They've signed a lot of veteran guys. They have Devante Booker and Corey Clement and Raikwell Armstead behind it.

They are loading up on like veteran guys to get reps in camp in their beginning the season. And they have all but admitted basically that they're not, they're not saying the things they usually say. They're not saying the, he's on schedule. You know, all those cliches we make fun of. Like, oh, yeah, he's on time. He's had his schedule. They're not saying that. They're saying, we have no timeline.

We're not rushing them. They want to sign him to a contract extension. and they don't want to screw him up for what they want him to be the face of the team for like the next five years. And I think that they're very much going to scale back from the McCaffrey workload

of Sequin being on the field 90% of the time. I don't know if you're going to see him on the field 90% of the time once in the first two months of the season. So then it's like, how do you feel about the Giants as an offense? What do you think, Craig? I really got to figure out what the hell I think about Seekwan. I've already zigged like and zagged nine times in my head in the last week.

I'm like, I'm like, this is the real. the riskiest pick you could make. I should rank him 10th. Or I'm like, but after I did that, I'm like, well, maybe I'll zag and you grab him. And if you really want to win your league, Sequin, might be the best running back in football, could have this crazy season, finally put it

all together. He's still really young. And he completely blows it up. I have this fatigue with him a little bit, because it seems like it's been every year now. I made a list. It seems like there's about a four-year cycle for top four picks. There's always four guys. They last for about four seasons, and then you move on. And we're

kind of at the end of our Zeke, Camara, McCaffrey, Sequin cycle. This is year three for some of them, year fours for others. So I honestly just, I really just wanted to have an open, honest discussion about Saigon with my guys here because I have no idea what to think about him. Obviously, he has the raw talent. I'm literally talking myself in and out every day. All right. Can we, can we, can we, can we, is this a safe space?

Yeah. We can do a little therapy here. Can I tell you something I don't really talk about other than tell other Giants fans? Yeah. Go. Sequin is quietly overrated. Are you going to do the thing about how he just tries to hit home runs every day? Yeah, yeah, yeah.

It's like the bouncing thing. So there's two things. The name value is he belongs in this top five. Talent-wise, but production, there's two things. The Giants have a bad offensive line, and it was not addressed this off season. It's a bad offensive line. Quietly, he kind of works behind a bad offensive line because he just loses yardage and plays where he should gain four. But he's trying to hit a home run, so he just loses two.

A lot. the other problem is I can't stress this enough. Jason Garrett is running this fucking team and that never gets discussed when you're making the argument for the number one pick. Whatever you want to say about Sequin and whether he is like worth this

or how talented he is, at the end of the day, no players succeed if their coaches don't put them in a position where they can succeed. I have zero faith that Jason Garrett can accomplish. that. And I understand all the stuff about Daniel Jones. They have more receiving stuff. I think when you're in a bad offense, the things you want to hear are like McCaffrey, where he's going to get like 130 targets or whatever. I don't think Sequin will.

Yeah, remember all the stuff I said about how Zeke has all of the qualities you'd want and number one pick? I think Sequin's the opposite. However, still something kind of intriguing about it. You know what I mean? Maybe you do say. I think it's like because the name is unreal. His name's Sequin. You want Seekwan on your team. It's a one-name guy. There's not many one-name guys. So is he going to be the guy that potentially falls in dress where he's like somebody has a seventh pick and they're like, ooh, Sequin's here. Do I do it?

No, because he's so exciting. And this is a little contrarian from me. Like I don't, it brings me zero joy to doubt Seekwon. I'm just saying if we're talking about ceilings and floors, the ceiling is inherent. Like he's the coolest freaking guy to watch. But like he also just has these knee injuries and is just not in the timeline

that you kind of want to hear from the guy you're going to take with a top five pick. As you said, you can screw up your first round I don't know. He's a daily fantasy guy. Maybe don't draft him. Just do daily. I just don't want my running back

to be on load management in June. Is that so much to ask? That's all. I think that's fair. I think the other question that we have to ask with Barclay, and you alluded to it just now, are you worried that like there's,

now the offense is actually good enough where they don't have to just dump it off to Sequin all the time? You know what I mean? Like they got Kenny Gallaudet. Sterling Shepherd is still there. Evan Ingram is still there. They went inside,

or they drafted a guy in the first round, Kedars Tony. who could end up stealing some of the style of passes that Barclay got in 2018 when he went off. Is that a worry to you? I'll follow that up and I'll explain kind of like what happened, or not I'll explain, but I'll look at what happened in 2018 with this offense. And to be honest, looking at the 2018 offense of the Giants, it doesn't worry me now kind of thinking. Like they had Odell, they had Shepard, they had Ingram, you know, and he still got 91 catches.

Am I worried about the Giants offense being good? no, because the thing with the Giants offense is that, oh, there are there too many weapons? They're always like, well, these guys have never played together. Yeah, it's because they're all injury prone. Evan Engram, Sterling Shepard, Sequin, Kenny Gallaudy now, all these guys get hurt. And so the thing is,

well, once they're all on the field together, I give it four games max, they're all on the field together. It's just a collection of injury prone people. Yeah. So I came into this kind of thinking, oh, maybe this is a detriment to him, but I actually kind of think if their offense is better,

that's like rising tides raises all ships. Like if Daniel Jones has a good season, it's actually good for Sequin Barclay because they're going to score more points. For all my doom and gloom, he's still like a very clear like top eight running back to me. I just have the audacity to say maybe he's eighth instead of fourth. That's all I'm saying here.

I think that might be right. It's all very rough. And the words of Matthew Berry, you have to nitpick at the top. And there's only one guy in the top 10 that will, that is the team. The owner is publicly speaking about we're not rushing him back. Like, you know,

anyway. All right, let's go to another guy. We have out, so we have Christian McCaffrey first, Dalvin Cook second, Derek Henry third, Zeke Elliott fourth, Sequin, fifth. Alvin Camara is sixth. If Saquan doesn't have the highest range of outcomes this year, I wonder if it's Camara.

D.K., what do you think is Alvin Camarrier? Yeah. I mean, yeah, that's the big question is it's not a talent question. It's not even really an offense question so much. It's a quarterback question. Like, who's going to be playing quarterback for this team? If it's, if it's, uh, Taysom Hill, if he ends up winning the job or if he ends up like playing a pretty major role, whether that means like, you know, he's coming in and like

doing red zone stuff for them. He could really hurt Alvin Camara's bottom line, I think. And I saw this, uh, tweet from Michael Florio, Alvin Camara with Drew Brees last year, 29.23 fantasy points per game, 8.3 targets per game with Taysam Hill, dropped all the way down to 14.2 fantasy points per game and four targets per game. He was targeted. So his fantasy points and his targets got cut in half. Hav'd.

Without Briss. He was targeted 10 times in Hill's final start. So maybe that is a, you know, foreshadowing. Like, maybe like Sean Payton was like, hey, we got to get him more involved in the passing game. Like, we absolutely have to do that. However, I think there's a lot of risk. And this is probably, he's actually probably more has higher variance than even Sequin. Because if Taysam Hill starts and if the same kind of thing happens,

Camara's scoring 14 fantasy points per game. Like, he's falling far in terms of, like, his overall value. So I think it's very, very difficult to project who the quarterback is going to be. I think, you know, right now, sort of the thought is that James Winston, among Saints beat reporters, I think it's generally people think that James Winston's going to win the job. However, I don't think they invested all this time and Taysan. They started TASM last year and, you know, gave Taseom all this money to have him,

not be like legitimately in this competition. I think there's a world in which Taysam wins his job outright. I also think there's a world where James just throws like seven picks in the first two weeks and gets benched. I'm so confused about that as well. I was surprised to learn that there is not consensus, but the beat writers do lean towards saying Jemis will get the job when James is being paid less than half of what Tayson Hill is being paid this year. But James is the one who's doing the workouts with the receivers.

James is flying receivers out to throw together. James is working with Drew Breeze's trainers. Why is Taseom not doing this? Seems like a bad idea. That's what I'm wondering. Maybe he is. We just don't know about it. I don't know.

Or is it kind of like there's like a divorce and they kind of like this is James's month and then like the other like I'm confused. like genuinely. How is Taysam not going to pay twice for money to not be the quarterback? I don't understand. Taseom gets weekends and James gets, you know, weekdays.

Yeah, I don't know. It's going to be, it's very, it's impossible to predict, and I think it's also impossible to predict Camara's usage. I think really, Camara is, like, the biggest leap of faith. If you really believe in Camara, if you believe that Sean Payton is going to be like, hey, we have like three weapons in this offense, and I'm just going to force feed Camara targets, whoever's playing quarterback. I'm going to make him get Camara involved.

I think if you have faith that that's going to happen, then you can go back and be like, Camara's going to be an elite fantasy guy. if you don't believe that's going to happen and if you believe that Taysom is going to be the starter and he's going to steal a lot of goal line looks, he's not going to dump it off because he's a mobile guy, he's just going to run instead. That's like legitimately concerning.

So I don't know. Yeah, I'm not as bullish. I mean, I love Camara so much, but I have him 11th overall right now in my rankings and maybe he'll go up a little bit. But it's been, it's always been the efficiency with Camara. It's never been about the touches. It's about the efficiency.

He was so damn efficient with the football. And now he's going to be quarterbacked by the least efficient quarterback, perhaps ever. After going from the most efficient quarterback. You're talking about James? James. Yes, he's going from Breeze, perhaps the most efficient ever to James, perhaps the least efficient ever. James does not seem like a checkdown kind of guy. He's a hucket down the field to Mike Evans' wrist-taking kind of dude. You know what I mean? Plus, there's much more incentive now for Sean Payton to use Tayson Hill in the red zone in the running game. Now that there's no Breeze, putting Taysom Hill in the game instead of James is a lot less risky than taking

Drew Breeze out of the game for Taysam Hill. So I see a world in which Camara has five less carries every game, three less catches every game, and whatever, five less touchdowns of the season, which I think he's just kind of a low-end RB1 now. That is my thought, unless they completely redo the offense to make sure he gets the ball 10 times a drive. I don't know. I agree with Craig. It wouldn't stun me if James was the quarterback between the 20s and Tason was basically the Red own quarterback, which is worst case scenario. Camaro, there's only one number you need to know. He has played 60 NFL games and he's 58 touchdowns.

58 touchdowns and 60 games, which is basically the fourth best number ever. Like, that's more than Ladanian Thomason had his first 60 games. That's more than Barry Sanders had his first 60 games. Adrian Peterson, Emmett Smith, Walter Payton, whoever you want to name, he has more touchdowns. If they, Saints' offense can't keep that up, Camero will not be who he has been. If? I mean, they're fucking not. Exactly. That's the thing. It doesn't even seem like it's possible. No, this makes me sad.

It depends. Honestly, it depends if Sean Payton gets James Winston to play differently and or that Lasic surgery actually worked. You said 58, whatever, touchouts in 60 games. James has 88 picks in 76 games. That's crazy. That doesn't even include his fumbles either. Yes, correct. though that's actually the most underrated part of James's game is that everyone focuses on the 30 picks from the 30 30 30 season he also like led the league and fumbles in that span like that is unbelievable to lead both of those you know the you know the 50 40 90 90 club there needs to be like a 30 30 10 club or whatever James entered there see so I understand that the beat reporters who are much more plugged into the organization than anyone outside like us but I still have just like so I just doubt that he's going to win the job. I don't know. I'm still very like, I just don't believe it. I can't see them going to Winston. He just turns the ball over

so fucking much. How can you win with that? You can't win with that. We'll see. The only upside I think is that we will learn who they're thinking about by who gets the reps in training camp. We'll have to wait until July, honestly. All right. The last guy here who's in this tier, and really he probably should not be.

But I wanted to throw him out there to you guys. Because really there's a bunch of guys that are not in this conversation, but very well maybe the next. number one pick next year, as Craig alluded to, there's kind of four-year cycles of who's the top pick, and the McCaffrey, Sequin, Camara, Elliott thing might be coming to an end, maybe soon. I want to throw out some guys that maybe will be, like, we'll look back on and be like, wow, you wish you could add him.

Jonathan Taylor for the cults, who was basically a top three running back for the end of the season. D.K., what do you make of Jonathan Taylor? Where do you have him ranked? We have him as seventh overall. where do you have him and why? So I'm actually a little bit lower and quite a bit lower on Taylor than consensus. However, I will say like if someone took him first in the draft, he's that talented and that explosive and he was that good at the end of last year that I really don't know if people

would be like, whoa, that's like the stupidest pick. Like I think people would be like, wow, okay. So you're really bullish on him, but it's not crazy to think about. I mean, last year, if you look at from week 11 on, he was the RB3. and a half ppr, 23.1 points per game. Like, 23.1 points per game is, like, overall RB, like, the overall RB1 ballpark,

if, like, if things fall right. So, like, there is a world in which I think Jonathan Taylor could be the RB1. However, I don't trust the Colts. I don't trust the Colts to give him that workload. I don't, like, if, with guys healthy, with Naim Hines healthy, even

Marlon Mack got re-signed, I think that they want to be a like a committee, like he's going to be a full-on committee, but I just don't know if he's going to get, like, the workhorse-type workload that you need to be the overall RB1. I don't know if they're going to, like, feed him a lot of targets.

Last year, he was in an offense with Philip Rivers, who was famously, like, the most checkdown heavy quarterback ever. And, you know, he just relies on that checkdown. And he got 39 targets. He caught 36 of them, which is great. 29 yards and a touchdown. He looked pretty good in the passing game. However, I just don't know if he's going to get the volume.

Like, again, Christian McCaffrey had over a thousand yards receiving in 2019. Seicorn Barkley had 91 catches and 700 something yards in 2018. You need elite receiving usage, I think, in an

offense like this where I think he is going to be in a bit of a committee. You know what I mean? So, it's not like he's going to get 350 carries. At least that's like my personal, you know, opinion. Maybe that ends up being completely wrong. The other thing, I think that you have to worry about a little bit with Taylor is

the same thing that you worry about with David Montgomery. A lot of people are like, oh yeah, David Montgomery, he's going to fall off a cliff this year because last year he faced all these shitty defenses down the stretch. Like, I called it. If you guys remember, like, they had the easiest schedule of running back defenses in the NFL going in like the second half of the season. I think this is like a great opportunity to buy low on David Montgomery.

And sure enough, like, he just like went off against these terrible defenses. Jonathan Taylor actually did the same thing. he went off against a bunch of pretty bad run defenses in the second half the year. You know, there was a few good ones sprinkled in here, Pittsburgh. But for the most part, like, he feasted on bad run defenses. And so the worry is, like, are people looking at that and being like, oh, yeah, over a full season, he can just go off. Like, he could average 23, 25 points per game, you know, blah, blah, blah. When you really should be like, well, what's their lineup of defense is going to look like?

How good is the run defense is going to be that they play? How good is Carson. when's going to be? Are they even going to score very many touchdowns? Is it going to be a committee? There's just so many questions I have with Jonathan Taylor. I'm not questioning his talent. I think he's one of the best pure runners in the NFL. But he's kind of like Nick Chubb. Like his upside is capped, at least until he proves that he's going to get really good usage in the passing game. You know what I mean? So Naheim Hines seems kind of like a cream hunt type impediment to elite fantasy usage in my mind. Until that changes, I'm just not willing to go number one with this guy.

I think he's awesome. Like, don't get me wrong. But it just worries me. Nick Chubb is a really good comp for Jonathan Taylor because they're both some of the best runners in the NFL. Yeah, pure running. Great offensive lines. But the odds they play three downs for, like, they're not going to play as much and their teams are just not committed to giving them that workload. Craig, is there a guy that you think might be in the conversation for the number one pick next year we have not talked about so far?

Yeah, I think it could be Cam Acres. I'm really high on Cam Acres this year. And for the ram, oh, because you just start doing Sean McVeigh's podcast and now you're like, oh, all in on the Rams. Shocking. Well, listen, I am going to root for the Rams this year. That is for sure. For those you don't know, we have flying coach is a podcast here at the ringer with Sean McVeigh. And Craig is the producer and Sean McVeigh is referred to you multiple times as a brother.

So I feel like this is a home of their best friends now. Right. Yeah. You know, we're buds. Sean McVeigh is a great guy. so is Peter Schrager. I'm enjoying it. What can I say?

I'm going to be a Rams fan now. Did you go to vacation for like two weeks and you come back and you're just like with McVeigh all the time? Yeah, we're going to start our own fantasy pod. Just doing flying coach full time. No, I actually agree with you though, Craig. I think Akers is the type of guy who, if someone picks him first overall, he's going to get laughed at and there's going to be group chat, like hoopla, all that stuff. However.

Well, not Craig because Craig's in the group chat with Sean McVeigh. Right. I'll tell McVey I took him first and he'll be like nice. Yeah, smart. I mean, listen, the elephant in the room is like fucking Todd Gurley, right? Like, if Cam Acres is just anything close to Todd Gurley, the last four or five games of the season, whatever it is when Acres was healthy and actually like played, he got like 20 plus touches a game. He was fantastic. He passed the eye test. He can catch. Like, he can do everything. And most top tier running backs are on good offenses. Dalvin Cook, Derek Henry, Camara. Like, the Rams are going to be really good. They might be the second best team in the NFC. And they have Matt Stafford now. And I think the offense is going to be. better than it's been in the last three years. So if they actually commit, I think that's the question to Cam Acres fully and not split between him and Daryl Henderson, I think why wouldn't Cam Acres be a top six-back this year? I don't know what's standing in his way.

Another line isn't great, but I mean, he checks every box in terms of like what he can do. So I think Camerakers is a really good chance to be top three, four guy next year and enter that new cycle of top four picks. Link twice if Sean told you something. Dude, okay, so Acres is definitely like a more boom bust player, I think, than a lot of the guys on this list. But like the boom could be massive, straight up massive.

I mean, look at how he was used down the stretch last year, just getting basically all of the offensive workload. And then this is with an offense, that was an offense with Jared Goff at quarterback, where defenses were crowding the box. Defenses were not respecting the deep pass. They were not, it was, everything was condensed. They couldn't, like, the Rams offense couldn't pass the ball very well with Goff. Like, he lost it. And with Matt Stafford under center, I think that's going to change a lot. Like, I even looked this up the other day, I think it was, I don't know, off the top of my head, I think, I think that Acres faced the fourth most loaded boxes, so eight plus men in the box among running backs last year.

And that's going to change, I think, this year because of what Stafford can. doing the passing game, it's going to just stretch defenses out, force them to be, to respect the past more. And it's going to, I think this offense is going to look a hell of a lot closer to the one that was like so elite and so dominant in 2017, 2018, when Gurley was going off. I think the big question, well, there's a couple of questions. With Acres, obviously, the use is just a big question. Is he going to be in a committee? But part of that is how much is he going to be used in the passing game? If he gets involved, like Gurley was, in the passing game, where he's being used in screens, you know, the occasional wheel route of the backfield, things like that, like, wheels up.

Like, this guy could go completely bonkers this year. So, but I also think that there's a, it's very easy to, like, paint a picture where they just do, like, a committee and, like, everyone's frustrated the entire year. So, like, you know. The Rams were not the Rams last year. They used, like, 12 personnel, like, more than any other team in the league, which is completely opposite. In 2018, they ran, like, 11 person. when their offense was amazing more than any of the team in the league. They were completely different.

Acres, like you said, D.K., he, like, faced eight plus members of the box more than anybody in the league. So I think the Rams' offense with Stafford is just going to be a complete shift from what we saw in 2020. Yeah. Wow. Hefeits. High Fids.

Flying coaches, Craig Rollback right there. That's the most quiet I've ever heard. Hyfitts in my life. Well, I mean, I can't add it. Sean McVeigh hasn't personally told me anything about Cam Acres's used to this year. So why would... If a guy takes Sequin. at four and I'm sitting there at like 11

and I get acres, I think I'm happier about that. I think you're right. Like, I can't, a lot of drafts, I don't think you can trade down a lot of people's like redraft leagues. You can't really trade down. Like, if I have the top pick, this is like the overall point. I'm trading down. If I can.

That right there is an interesting thing, though, because basically what we've determined through going through these dudes is what we're saying is like McCaffrey feels like a lock. And then Cook and Henry, I think, or various degrees of locks. And then we have a lot of questions from Zeke to Sequin to Camara, to Taylor, to Acres. Like, it feels like there is a really large tier, so to speak, of like second tier running backs.

And that within that pool, you're kind of happy than any of them. But, like, you'd almost rather have a lower pick this year if you don't have, like, if you don't have top two, you kind of almost want like eight or nine this year than like five. Yeah, maybe like four, five and six are the worst picks. Yeah. In a snake draft, then you're getting two for one almost. It's like, yeah. I'd rather trade down.

So you don't want to be in the middle of the round. You want to be high or low. Wouldn't you agree that it's more fun to have like pick nine than pick two? This year, yes, because you can get acres and Chubb for the, or like you could acres and Aaron Jones, maybe. Right. Yeah. Yeah.

I always am more interested because you're drafting the guys who could make it to number one next year, you know? You're not drafting the guys who already were number one. Can I throw out one more guy? We got to throw out a few more guys because I think there's a few more guys that could be in the conversation like midway through the season where we're like, this guy should have been the top pick. We should have seen this coming, you know?

There's one big hype guy, I feel like, that everyone's going to be really into this year, but Hyford's hit yours. No, no, no, you already, you just did your guy. You could do yours. You can't just, like, say, there's one big hype guy and then ask me to do a different guy. I feel like this is the year that,

it's kind of happened every year, but this is the Joe Mixen year, I think, in a lot of people's minds, because it's like, oh, Burroughs finally healthy. They got, like, Jamar Chase, the offense is going to be the best spin. Mixing is all the talent in the world. He hasn't been super healthy.

The Bengals have sucked. Like all the stars are aligning for this is the year. Mixing is like a top three back in the league, right? I mean, I'm already reading the articles. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And there was, so like there's been conflicting comments from the coaching staff too. Like I think earlier in the off season, one of the coaches was like, there's no reason to take him off the field. And everyone was like, yes, yes.

You know, and then I think like Zach Taylor the other day. It was me. I don't even know. Zach Taylor the other day was like, oh, no, you know, we got to keep him, you know, we got to, we can't like overuse him or something like that. he's like, he's not going to play 70, 80% of the snaps or something like that. And everyone's like, fuck, shit, no. So we'll see. We'll find out.

But like, honestly. Can we just talk about how the entire crux of fantasy football revolves around a position that the rest of the math-based football world is like, does it, it says, doesn't matter. And we're just like, who are the Bengals going to play a third down? Like, if one coach just accidentally says something that he may not even believe, everyone's like, write that down, write that down, oh, change your rankings, change your rankings. But if fantasy football did exist. Is there anything that's like less interesting

than who the Bengals play at running back on third down? Is there a single thing you can think of that's like less consequential? Will Minton be involved in the passing game on third and longs? It's a weird sport. But no, he probably will have a huge year. The other guy I wanted to throw out. Well, we'll get to a couple first.

You mentioned Nick Chubb, who I think is quietly the most talented running back in the NFL, but just the fact that Cream Hunt's there, I don't think we'll ever get the volume, even though he almost part of me thinks that he's the guy, but he's just, you don't want to mistake the most talented for fantasy football.

He's just not going to lead the league and stuff, but down for down is as good as anyone. Aaron Jones should be this conversation, but honestly, it's not worth even talking about so we know what's up with Rogers. Yeah, because Jamal Williams is gone. It's not worth even discuss it. Like, if Rogers isn't there, Aaron Jones is about it.

So the guy that I think could be there is Najee Harris for the Steelers. Yeah, yeah. This is the three-down running back that is just not getting respect. He is going to start for this team in week one, he is going to be a three-down running back immediately. I understand that the Steelers' offensive line is kind of bad.

I understand Ben Rathesberger may or may not be able to throw very far anymore and that this offense was more or less hot garbage for the final two months of the season. Having said that, we have no problem with bad offensive lines and quarterback questions for like, you know, McCaffrey and Derek Henry. well, that's not a bad offensive line, but we have a lot of questions about that offense. The Steelers are going to give this kid, like, 400 touches. Like this guy, I would not be surprised if Najee Harris led the league in touches.

Like, if Derek Henry does not, I think Najee Harris is right there for the second candidate, because he can catch, even though he's like almost Derek Henry. No one's Derek Henry size, but he's a big back who can catch. They're going to use him all the time. I feel like he's the one just. hiding in plain sight that you can slide in the second. In some league's even the third or fourth round that could win you your league.

Yeah. He's, dude, he's Levyon Bell. He's like the second coming at Levyon Bell, I think. He might be more talented, honestly. It's one of those things where... Less of the dick, too, probably. A lot of it... You don't know if Najee Harris hates Andy Reid.

TBD on that. Noggi seems like a good dude, so that's fun. Everybody's coming to the defense of Andy Reed like he needs us to. Yeah, no, I think it's the deal... If it's you laid it all out, we don't know because he's a rookie and you just never really know what to expect. But yeah, he's going to be the guy. He's going to be really involved in the passing him, I think.

Rothberger can't throw the ball far, which is a variable. He's going to be checking down a lot. I think that's going to be a big part of it. The only question I think you'd ask is, like, are the Pittsburgh Steelers not going to throw as much this year? And that's like still not even a bad thing because, you know, that means he's going to be getting more carries. So I don't know. I think like in any case he's going to have a really high floor. And there's a, there is a, you know, there's plenty of worlds where I could see him being

like a top three guy, honestly, in year one. Yeah, you know, they have a new OC this year, Matt Canada, who was with the team already, but Matt Canada, McVeigh actually talked about this on the show, that he like stole a lot of plays from Mac, not stole, but, you know, like was influenced by Matt Canada's play calling in Pittsburgh. He was like a big Jet Suite guy. So like, maybe Pittsburgh gets more creative to offset this. this terrible offensive line.

Maybe they're doing weird West Coast offense stuff, and it gives Naji Harris a little more room. Because I think the worry would be that he's going to have 24 carries for 72 yards and no touchdowns every week. Right. And by the way, when I said Pittsburgh, I meant University of Pittsburgh for when McVeigh was influenced by Matt Canada. That's the fear is, will the touches be empty

because the Steelers' offense sucks? Yes. I don't think it's going to suck. I don't think the offense is going to suck. they got too much talent in that offense. Even with Rathsberger, like, on the decline, you know, I think they just have too much talent in that offense. We have to address what Ben said about his elbow.

So he had the elbow injury in 2019. He came back. He had the surgery. And he kept saying last offseason, like, it's not a problem. I feel better than ever before. I'm in the best shape of my life. This is the best marms felt in years. And then obviously, like, really struggled down the stretch of last season.

Rathesberger said this was a couple of years, a couple weeks ago. The exact quote is, they asked them basically how, like, why did you have such a tough season? And he said, quote,

I had total reconstruction on my elbow that might have something to do with it, but no excuses. Listen. God, man, listen, Ben Robertsburger ain't exactly a walk in the park either,

all right? But no excuses? Yeah, I respect it, I guess. I'd probably say the same thing, to be honest. If I had elbow reconstruction,

and I think I'd probably say the same thing too. I'd be like, I'm 40 and my elbow doesn't work. Cut me some slack. Anyway. Yeah, man. Who knows what to do there? Yeah, I love the Naji call, though, High Fitz. I mean, I think it's, I mean, so where do you have him ranked?

I mean, let's, I can go to your specific rankings here. You had him 10th. I think that's. Honestly, I wanted to swap him in Sequin, and I just had, I just, I just didn't have the, as Bill would say, the testicular fortitude to do. it. I wanted to put him over Sequin. I'm way too low on Najee. I'm way too low. Adjust.

We'll have to adjust for the next one. But yeah. The second I see some tweet about like getting every rep or it looks great in the passing game, I'll just knock him up to sixth. I'm not going to move him higher. Well, he's a first rounder to me. He's a borderline first rounder. He's the kind of guy that if you get him with your comeback pick

in the second, like you're cooking in my mind. I'm going to take him in the second round every time I can. Yeah. Except if everyone's in my leagues are listening. All right. So we are... Can we... We need to mention a few other guys, I think, one, before we go.

Really quickly. As potential, like, next year, number one overall category, guys? Yeah, and or halfway through the season, why didn't we see this coming and why didn't we pick him first overall? I think the first guy, the most obvious guy is Austin Eckler, who I think is going to... There's buzz right now that he's going to have, like, that Camara role in the Chargers' offense.

He's attached to a good quarterback. He gets a ton of work in the passing game. He's, like, basically the Camara of... the Chargers and obviously Joe Lombardi, former coach of the Saints, taking that offense to, I almost said San Diego, to Los Angeles. So there's that idea that he has,

number one, he has the talent, and I think he's going to have the same sort of workload slash role as the Camara to, in fantasy. So there's like this thought that he could all of a sudden emerge as like a top three guy this year. I think it's not like that wild. So he should be in this conversation. The other guy that I think is in the conversation,

but I'm not nearly as excited or not nearly as confident about is Antonio Gibson from Washington, who basically came into the NFL as a slot receiver, like a 230-pound, 4-3 running slot receiver, and then they didn't want to put too much on his plate, so they made him a early-down grinder, and he looked really good doing that.

And then they gave J.D. McKissick, like 100-plus targets in the passing game. What if Gibson just is the three-down back this year? He gets, like, 90 to 100 of those targets, and J.D. McKissick sits on the back. bench, he's all of a sudden a top three guy, Antonio Gibson is. I'm not as bullish on this because, number one, he's already talking about how his foot, he's still got lingering effects of a toe injury that happened like months ago.

So that's worrisome. And then I just basically just don't trust that quite as much as the other guys. He hasn't done it. His pedigree is quite a bit lower. Obviously, like a third round pick. Like he was a receiver at Memphis in college. Like, I'd like to see it before I really like put all my chips in on Gibson. however, I am going to be like not that surprised

if he's just putting out elite numbers halfway through the season. That's really interesting. I mean, Dika, we've been doing this podcast for this is our third or fourth season or something and I don't think I've been as wrong on any single player as I was at Antonio Gibson and you were right.

Well, he was the ultimate outlier. I mean, he really was. He had more carries in like his first two or three games in Washington than he did in his career at Memphis. And I just was like, if he's going to play, he'll never see the volume because he'll be a third down gadget scatback. And as you said, it was the exact opposite. He got the early down work.

So if there's any guy that's not being discussed as someone who can make the leap to a three-down player, it is Antonio Gibson. And then Fitzpatrick being the quarterback there makes it more exciting too. McKissick led the NFL in targets last year among running backs, 110 targets. He had more targets than Alvin Camara. That's freaking bizarre. I don't think that's going to happen. again, and maybe their offense isn't going to be nearly as checked down heavy because they don't have Alex Smith. They don't have Dwayne Haskins or whatever. Like, you know, Radfitts Patrick is a

vertical attack down the field quarterback. So this is not apples to apples. However, I do think he's going to get a way bigger chunk of the passing game. And, you know, we could be talking about this guy as maybe like a top five guy. I'm not, I'm not probably ready to say he's going to be like the number one guy in fantasy, but it wouldn't be that surprising to see him involved on all three downs and like see his value, skyrocket this year. I'm also just high in Washington having a great defense that needed to run in the fourth quarter a lot.

We think of Fitzpatrick as a gunslinger in part because Fitz has not really ever had great defenses. It's always having to do the magic. Great. Yeah. Yeah. The thing with Fitz is interesting is like I feel like Ryan Fitzpatrick

has always been the guy who nobody believed in and then half it through the season he comes in and defies the odds. This is the first year, I feel like where they're like, oh, well, they got Fitzpatrick, they're fine. Like no one has said that in a really

long time. He's always been like the backup who comes in and says the day. So I'm a little dubious that like 38 year old Ryan Fitzpatrick, everyone's like, oh, well, Redskins, I mean, Washington's going to be great. You know what I mean? I think Fitzpatrick has a little of the Sequin thing where it's the only time they'll ever be compared as athletes, but they're so perfectly suited for like highlight plays and then like funny off the field things that like get pushed to your notification by the ESPN app that you're like, I didn't need this to be sent to my phone. But like they just kind of stick in your consciousness longer, but when you're watching the play to play, there's more ugly stuff than you think. But like, it doesn't get talked about because that's not

fun to like critique a popular person. Yeah, I don't know. I love that. That's the first time that they've probably ever going to be compared athletically. Probably the last one too, unless I say he could grow a beard, which you probably can't, but like until then. Oh my gosh. Oh, no, he does the jolette commercials, can't? I kind of think he can't grow up here. I think he's the only jillette guy who's like there's no way he needs to shave. no running backs have beards, huh? Oh, that's it. Zique does.

Zeek does? Oh, yeah, Zeeke does. Ziz had a beer since he was, beard since he was like 17, I feel like. Didn't Fournett? Didn't Fornett, didn't Fornett have a beard last year? I can't remember. Frenet looked like a retired running back

before he went to college. Yes. Frenet looked 40. Really? Like a running back's coach. He looked like a running back's coach. He looked like the coach. Oh, man.

Oh, my God. All right. Let's get out of here. Is there any, anyone else in the radar, DK? Is that it? Yeah, elephant in the room. Lenny Fornes is not on this list. Playoff Lenny.

Super Bowl, Lenny? Oh, you're fine. How is he not on this list? He's the coach of these guys. He's coaching a little. Geo Bernard is ruining his shot. Damn it. It's the Rex Burkhead signing with the Pats.

That's the, or signing with the Texans. We didn't talk about that one, but we're going to devote a whole episode to remember that. Yeah, that's what's Thursday. We're coming back on Thursday morning. To be clear, that's absolutely a joke. Please come back and listen to the next episode. On Rex Burrck.

We're going to tell you his life story. That will be, it's not what we're going to do. Maybe. All right. But we are coming back to you Thursday. Again, Mondays and Thursdays for the next month here in Ringer Fantasy Football Show. The draft, the top 150 rankings are up at the ringer.com.

And we were later in July, we will have fantasyfutball. Dot the ringer.com. We'll have our whole draft guide. Thank you to everyone. We're really excited to get going on this season again. Also, email us if you want. We're bringing the email back. Email us.

Anything you want us to talk about over the next couple months? Any draft preview stuff? Anything you want us to put out? in the world. Fantasy football. Sorry, Mike, I got the email. It's been a while. Ringer Fantasy Football at gmail.com. It has been a while. Ringer Fantasy Football at gmail.com.

Email us. And most importantly. Yep. Thank you, Lord. Lord. Thank you, Usher. Ooh. Osh, good one, D.K.

DK's back. The start of season three. Literally never once, never once in a recording remembered to like try and think of an an artist that I've never said before, but this time I did it. Well done, D.K. Yeah. Yeah.

Yeah. We're back. We're back. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I get it. All right. I get what you're doing.

Very good. Yeah. All right. Bye, everyone.