The Ringer NFL Show - The Kelce-Kupp Catastrophe and Our Favorite Fantasy Over/Unders of 2023

Episode Date: September 6, 2023

Welcome to another season of Power Hour, where Danny Heifetz, Danny Kelly, and Craig Horlbeck rank something fantasy football or NFL related every Wednesday throughout the regular season. First, the g...uys discuss the fantasy implications of Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce's hyperextended knee at practice and Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp's visit to a specialist for his hamstring issues (1:49). Next, they kick off this season’s first Power Hour by power ranking their favorite season-long over/unders (14:55). Finally, the guys close with emails (50:55). Check out our 2023 Ringer Fantasy Football Rankings here! Kadarius Toney, Chiefs WR (16:04) DK Metcalf, Seahawks WR (18:34) Geno Smith, Seahawks QB (23:00) Bryce Young, Panthers QB (26:15) Anthony Richardson, Colts QB (28:42) Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins QB (33:00) DeVonta Smith, Eagles WR (35:12) Dalton Kincaid, Bills TE (38:22) Kenny Pickett, Steelers QB (40:32) Mike Evans, Buccaneers WR (43:07) Josh Jacobs, Raiders RB (45:23) Deshaun Watson, Browns QB (47:27) Email us! ringerfantasyfootball@gmail.com The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please check out theringer.com/RG to find out more or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Hosts: Danny Heifetz, Danny Kelly, and Craig Horlbeck Social: Kiera Givens and Jack Sanders Producer: Kai Grady Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, it's your boy Johnny Bananas, and I'm going to be covering a brand new season of the Challenge USA on CBS that, of course, I will be completely dominating on my podcast, death taxes and bananas on the Ringer Reality TV podcast. Head over that feed and follow us on Spotify, so you never miss an episode. Fantasy football show, my name is Danny Heifitz. I'm joined by Danny Kelly Craig Horleback, and I know, I know. Travis Goals got hurt.
Starting point is 00:00:47 I'm sorry. I'm sorry. You know, what are you on for me? I'm sorry, okay? DeKay and Craig are mad at me. Like, come on, you think I'm like a sorcerer? I think I did this on purpose? Well, you have been saying,
Starting point is 00:01:00 I think I counted 367 instances over the last 30 days that you've said. Travis Kelsey hasn't been hurt in about six years. He's played every single game. It was 10 years and that was a fact, so it's not supposed to say it. You know what's great about this is I gave the take on the take purge that,
Starting point is 00:01:18 the Chiefs were going to miss the playoffs because Travis Kelsey was going to get hurt and everything was going to be screwed. But because it was the take purge, that was consequence free. So it's on hyphids. Yeah. I, we were going to get into all this. So today it's power hour. We're going to be power ranking, our favorite bets for the season.
Starting point is 00:01:35 But we got so much to get to before we even get any of that. Obviously, news, if you haven't heard, sorry, you'd have to find out like that. If you haven't heard, as we're doing this, I just got a text from my girlfriend's dad saying, what did you do to Travis Kelsey? So that's a great start. Um, incredible. Okay, Travis Kelsey injured, hyper extended his knee Tuesday afternoon. We have basically no information beyond that. Hyper extension can meet a bunch of things. It could mean like he plays in week two and is totally fine. It could mean like a month.
Starting point is 00:02:03 We don't know. Again, once again, I will admit bottom of my heart. I'm sorry for saying like 200 times that he hasn't missed a game due to injury. Oh, I'm getting another text. Noah who used to shout out ringer films. You screwed me. I have my homes and Kelsey. Wow. We need somebody to blame hyphins. It's incredible. Everyone who is like, what is Hyphins is Josh Jacobs this year? It's Travis Kelsey. I know it's a little different, but it is Travis Kelsey. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:02:28 I've heard more from the people who love me and now hate me in the last like two hours than I have. Anyway, okay. Let's do two things. One, we'll get to Kelsey injury replacements if you've taken them in a second. But first, I also want to mention, in addition to Kelsey, we have Cooper Cup. is now update on that, seeing a specialist to his hamstring injury. So Cooper Cups went to Minnesota
Starting point is 00:02:53 to see hamstring, basically like a hamstring specialist. And Sean McVeigh said, Cups day to day. I think it's crazy to say your day to day. If you're going to see a specialist in Minnesota on Monday, I don't know, it feels like it's week to week. So here's my first question right off the jump. DK. and I had this conversation last week, Craig, you weren't there. Right now, if you were drafting today
Starting point is 00:03:13 and you had one fantasy team, would you rather have Travis Kelsey or Cooper Cup? Kelsey. I agree with that. I think that's, we don't know much right now. I think that's totally true. The question is, where do we move these guys right now? So we have Travis Kelsey.
Starting point is 00:03:27 We're going to do an update. Here's my question. Just a little name game here. I want to jump all the way down to like we have CD Lamb 15th. I feel like you have to still take CD Lamb over both these guys. Are both you okay with that? Yes. We're doing both Cup and Kelsey here versus these guys.
Starting point is 00:03:43 You're nominating? Yes. Yeah, let's go. Let's have both guys and I want to just like, how low can you go? So it's C.D. Lambs on the, okay, he goes. Josh Jacobs goes. Amon Ross St. Brown. Garrett Wilson's on the clock. Garrett Wilson's there. You're going to take Garrett Wilson or Cooper Cup or Kelsey. I'm still on team Garrett Wilson. Yeah. I am too. I'm sticking with Garrett Wilson here. Okay. Jalen Hertz or Jalen Waddle. Any of the Jailens. I'm still taking a Jailen's. I think that's where it gets close for me. Would you take Kelsey or Cup first? I would take Kelsey first.
Starting point is 00:04:14 I think the Cup situation is still too cloudy in terms of we don't know exactly what's going on. He already was hurt before he reagravated it or whatever. I guess you could just say aggravated. And so I think there's more uncertainty and probably wider range of time out for him right now. Honestly, again, we're recording this on Tuesday, so we don't know exactly the extent of it. But Travis Kelsey could miss no time. Like it could just be a false alarm. We don't know exactly quite yet.
Starting point is 00:04:39 So we have to bake that into. I also think with Cooper Cup, like if you don't draft Cooper Cup, there are plenty of other wide receivers that can get you by. You know, Travis Kelsey is such a one-of-one at his position that to me, I would rather take the risk on getting the best tight end in fantasy football by far leaps and bounds ahead of the next guy. Cooper Cup, yeah, you know what? You could just take Garrett Wilson, Amonaro St. Brown, C.D. Lamb. There's a ton of guys who could probably just replicate what Cooper Cup is going to do this year. know, obviously, the best version of Cooper Cup is irreplicable, but in general, the opportunity cost of Kelsey is so high that I would still rather go with Kelsey. I totally agree. So right now,
Starting point is 00:05:21 we've moved Kelsey down to 19th in our rankings. We have them right around the Jalen Hertz. And then, but we have Cooper Cup down to 25th, basically sandwiched between D.K. McGF. and Tvante Smith. And that's kind of really the question. It's if you already have Cooper Cup, if someone came to you right now and was like, or maybe the other way around, if you had D.K. Metcalf, D.K., you love D.K. We had this conversation last week. Now Cooper Cup's going to see a specialist. I'm asking the same question. You have D.K.K. Metcalf. Someone comes to this says, hey, I got Cooper Cup. He'll probably be fine.
Starting point is 00:05:47 How about we just swap Cooper Cup for D.K. Metcalf? What do you think, D.K. I think that's a very close call on that one. And it just depends on how scared you are about this Cooper Cup thing. I think I probably go right now. Right now, D.K. McC., probably just by a hair. Just because right now he's healthy. And we don't know exactly how long Cooper Cup is going to go out. But again, like Craig
Starting point is 00:06:06 said, when he's healthy, when he's out there playing, Cooper Cup, there's almost like no receiver in the NFL like Cooper Cup, the connection he has with Matt Stafford. There's a lot of variables here at play, but sometimes you have to chase that upside too, I think. And so it is a calculated risk to stick with Cup. But I probably in this case,
Starting point is 00:06:23 just because we still don't know anything about Cooper Cup, I'd go DK MacKF. I'm just out on Cooper Cup for all the reasons we talked about last week. Again, I just don't think he's going to make it to the outside the first 25th picks. It's let it be someone else's problem. I just don't want to deal with a player who, we were already wondering the biggest issue with Cooper Cup,
Starting point is 00:06:39 I think that there's like force for the trees getting blinded by a 30% target share where it's like, okay, but are they going to shut him down in December with a fake injury? Now he's a real injury to start the year. Okay, I'm just like, let this be someone else's problem. I just, again, you're jumping to a lot of conclusions here, though. Like, you know what I mean? Like you're so far ahead of yourself on, I think, what happens late in the season. To me, that's just, that's taking a little bit too far. But I understand where your fear's coming from.
Starting point is 00:07:04 It's like, how many conclusions are we going to jump to when we're deciding whether or not to take a group of cup up? I guess it's not a, but I don't know if I'm jumping to a conclusion as much as Cooper Cup ended last year with a high ankle sprain. And he required tightrope surgery, came back, had a hamstring injury immediately in practice. And then once he came back, within a week, aggravated the hamstrings now seeing a specialist. And I'm like, I just, I don't know, at a certain point, I don't know. The third, like, the second round seems pretty freaking risky to take a guy where I'm like, is he going to play in the first month? I don't know. But to be honest with you, Hyphitz, I don't think many people are taking him in the second round.
Starting point is 00:07:35 It's easy advice to say, let him be somebody else's problem in the second round. but everybody is going to be hesitant and scared about Cooper Cup. So the question isn't, is he a good pick in the second round? I don't think anybody in a normal draft is going to take him in the second round. I have him 30th overall. Would you actually take him there? Or are you saying no matter what, let somebody else draft him? I have Cooper.
Starting point is 00:07:54 Well, no, not no matter what. I mean, I have Cooper Cup 30th overall because I think that's the point where like the upside comes tantalizing to me. So again, like there's about 30 players that I think are fantastic this year. Like Devante Smith, D.K. Metcalfe, even Mark Andrews, who himself, another 10, I missed five days of practice a week, but he returned at least. Patrick Mahombs, Remandria, I'm like, I want all those guys. But once you get to the range where it's like Keenan Allen, that's honest, Keenan Allen,
Starting point is 00:08:17 Amari Cooper, I think Jemir Gibbs was the guy that was hardest for me. I think Jemir Gibbs and Cooper Cup. And once you get right around Gibbs and I start looking at Amari Cooper and Kenan Allen, I'm like, oh, well, freaking Keenan Allen could get her. Like, he had a hamstring injury last year. You know, he missed freaking two months. And so that's where I start to get a little like, okay, maybe I should just like kind of take Cooper Cup.
Starting point is 00:08:35 And like, what if he does come back in two weeks? kind of starts floating in my brain. That's about the range. Travis Kelsey, I agree with you. I think that Garrett, like Garrett Wilson is in Jalen Water and Hertz. So the last players,
Starting point is 00:08:46 I get like FOMO. Otherwise, Kelsey, I think you're worth the risk. So I'd say, and honestly, if you want to go earlier, that's fine too. I will say, if you want to do Kelsey over like Derek Henry
Starting point is 00:08:56 at like 15th or something, that still makes sense to me if you want to be optimistic about it. Kelsey officially was listed as limited and practice today. He's questionable for the game on Thursday. So that doesn't help us at all. Austin Gale, who works at the ringer, our resident smart guy, he tweeted a couple hours ago. He went back and looked at it.
Starting point is 00:09:15 He basically just Twitter searched a hyper-extended knee in the NFL. He goes into the lab. Yeah, it goes into the lab. He came around with five guys who have hyper-extended their knee in the last few years. So Justin Fields did it missed a week. Zeke did it missed a month. Kenny Galday missed a month. And Logan Thomas and Chris Godwin both got hurt in December and they were out for the rest of the year.
Starting point is 00:09:35 So it can really vary. I don't, this is terrifying, to be honest. It's just there's nothing harder to do in fantasy football than drafting a guy who just got injured in your draft. There's nothing harder. It's the biggest mental hurdle of all time. Kelsey, again, Kelsey could miss a month. I will say, didn't Mike, I think Mike Evans hyper extended his knee in like the last week of the regular season, the year that Bucks won the Super Bowl. They came back and had like 100 something yards in the wild card round if memory serves.
Starting point is 00:10:02 It's not like he could, Travis Kelsey might miss the game basically because. it's on Thursday, it's Thursday night football this week. It's the first week game of the season. He might miss this, take 10 days and come back in week two. That's why I'm kind of more open to the idea of just grabbing Kelsey in the second round. Cup, I don't know. Cup, again, I don't think it's insane to point out that Cooper Cup is coming off a season ending injury a year ago and this is downstream of that.
Starting point is 00:10:25 That's the big difference to me. And that's why I'm like, I'd be much more cautious with Cooper Cup. I agree. I agree. I'm less intrigued by it. If you do have already drafted Kelsey, unless anyone else on the drafting with these guys. I want to shift gears to replacements if you have Kelsey for week one.
Starting point is 00:10:40 Yeah. One, I'm sorry. Again, you know what? I'm sorry. You probably have Travis Kelsey because I was like, do this. Like, uh, like, it's like, die hard. He's not going to get hurt. Come down.
Starting point is 00:10:51 Also, you apologizing for telling people to draft Travis Kelsey's kind of fucking stupid. Sorry, excuse me for cursing. But come on. He's the best player in the league every single year. You should not be at fault here for being like, I think he's going to continue to be the best player in the league. The way that I look at this is like, Hyphitz is saying, sorry, even
Starting point is 00:11:09 if he misses a game, Travis Kelsey is still going to be the tight end one. Like, sorry, you got the tight end one. You took him around too early. Sorry, I got another text and said, I hate you. What have you done to me? Sorry. Anyway, How dare you, Hyfitz? I would have never drafted Travis Kelsey had you not said any name. I didn't even heard of this guy.
Starting point is 00:11:28 Who is this guy? I will say, it's funny that it's like, sometimes you take a tight end because you're like, I don't want to deal with these tight end waivers. well, Mark Andrews was banged up this week. George Kittle by quietly miss week one. Like there's a world where Mark Andrews, George Kittle, and Kelsey all don't play in week one,
Starting point is 00:11:43 which would be absolutely incredible. So if you need a tight end, I think the obvious guys we've been talking about for a while, if they're on, I don't know who's on your waivers. Sorry if some of these are very obviously rostered in your league. But Dalton Kincaid for the bill is the rookie that we like. Gerald Everett for the charges who we like.
Starting point is 00:11:56 If for some reason Tyler Higby for the Rams is out there, I don't think he is. But those are guys we like a lot. I would say, I mean, Dalton Shultzsche the Texans is definitely rostered. otherwise, if those guys are all gone, and they probably are, the other people that I would recommend off the top of my head here, if you have Kelsey and you're just perusing, and you guys feel through the throw in. I would say Juan Johnson for the Saints is probably someone I would throw in if he's there. I would say Sam Leporter for the Lions, who's a rookie, little dicey, but as D.K. said, like, he's probably going to start, like, all the plays for the Lions.
Starting point is 00:12:28 Starting from day one. Yeah. Shago Conquo for the Titans, he's probably roster, but I wanted to mention him. if Mark Andrews misses any time, Isaiah likely for Baltimore. Honestly, even if they have to put Mark Andrews on a time share, Isaiah likely is like the only person that counts as a handcuff in fantasy. It's like Isaiah likely filled in for Mark Andrews and it's like a top five or six tight end every week. Mark Andrews is out.
Starting point is 00:12:47 Luke Musgrave for the Packers. Again, it's a rookie tight end. But like what if he's good? His ceiling's higher. And then the weird one is Noah Gray, who is probably like there's no replacement for Travis Kelsey. But he would play if Travis Kelsey wasn't there. So worst case, I know Noah Gray is a very. available in all these leaks.
Starting point is 00:13:04 So worst case, you can go out there, get Noah Gray and just pray. And if he doesn't catch any passes, just, I don't know, just be sad. It's a tough situation. I think a lot of those are pretty interesting to me, though, especially guys like Everett Higbee, Kincaid, Musgrave. I mean, those guys are worth rostering anyway, so you might as well go pick them up right now. It's like your tight end, too. Or go get Hunter Henry for when Juju Smith-Schuster's knee inevitably explodes, according to
Starting point is 00:13:28 that report. Who wrote that? Doctors don't speak that way. They basically said Juju Smith's knees like a weapon of mass destruction and at any moment it could detonate. Who speaks like that? He's going to be all right.
Starting point is 00:13:41 I don't know. It's going to be all right. That was the weirdest report I've ever seen. I could explode. Who says that? Other tight ends who are just quietly starters. Dawson Knox for the bills. Again, Dalton Kucate, he's a rookie kind of plays a different position.
Starting point is 00:13:59 Dawson Knox could just catch a touch. touchdown this week. Tyler Conklin for the Jets, just a dart throw like going to play for the Jets. Aaron Rogers, I don't know. Greg Dahlsons for the Broncos. I don't know who Sean Payton likes, but Greg Dulcich,
Starting point is 00:14:10 maybe Jake Ferguson just randomly. He used to start and tied in for the Cowboys. So some of these guys are going to be out there and Hunter Henry as Craig said. So I would add those dudes. And yeah, I guess this is kind of like an aim for the bushes thing, right? Like you know that people out there are just like aim for the bushes.
Starting point is 00:14:25 And they ended up with like Cooper Cup, Travis Kelsey, Jonathan Taylor, like two weeks ago. And now, yeah, email us if that was how you started your draft. What it would be Cooper Cup, Kelsey, JT?
Starting point is 00:14:35 Jonathan Taylor. I mean, I guess it'd be hard for everybody to start with those three, but if it happened, we want to hear from you. You could have gotten Kelsey. No, I guess Jonathan Taylor overlap with Cup. Tough. Maybe in an auction, you could have done it. Right. Like recently, maybe?
Starting point is 00:14:49 You could have gotten Kelsey in like third round. Or sorry, Taylor in third round. Yeah, yeah. If you drafted this weekend, maybe. Okay. It's time for a much anticipated return of power hour, baby. we're going to power rank our favorite bets ahead of this NFL season. And we're going to do it power hour style.
Starting point is 00:15:10 So if you're not familiar with power hour, it's very simple. Power hour style after two minutes, you will hear this sound from our beloved Tom Tom Club. Yes. It's a great song. And full disclosure, we couldn't really get Tom Tom for, you know, if you're watching this on Fendell TV, we couldn't really get it cleared because the law is really complicated. So we have to add a different song. We're not lawyers. We don't know what that song's going to be yet.
Starting point is 00:15:35 So we're just like awkwardly like dance or something to a song TBD unnamed. So that that's fun. But otherwise it's going to be Tom Top Club. Before this even starts while we're on Kelsey, should I mention Cadarius Tony's 100 to 1 to be the offensive player of the year? Oh, I have that. I have a Cal I have a Cadarius Tony bet here. I snuck it in at the very end hype.
Starting point is 00:15:55 Should we just do that first? Is that just vaulting to the top of the power rankings? I'm just, I'm just, I'm just, all right, you know what, screw,
Starting point is 00:16:03 guys, start the clock. So yeah, Kedaris, Tony, is he just going to play 17 games now and just like
Starting point is 00:16:08 win an offensive player of the year? He is practicing. He's good to go, quote unquote, good to go, according to Andy Reed for week one.
Starting point is 00:16:15 We'll see if that actually pans out. I had, so what did you have? You had 100 to 1 for offensive player of the year? I mean,
Starting point is 00:16:22 it's pretty stupid. Obviously, don't bet that. It is stupid, but I love it. It should be 100 to 1 play 17 games. Mine was 100 to 1 most receptions in the NFL.
Starting point is 00:16:33 He could play 50% of this now, so he could still do this, Craig. Don't you think? I'd love to find, I wish there was fantasy. I wish Fandle did fantasy like props. I want to know what the odds would be for Cadarious Tony to be the highest scoring fantasy player on the Chiefs. Because I don't know how he's going to score his points, whether it's catches, runs, more touchdowns versus yards. I don't know how, but he might. I mean, if Travis Kelsey does not play in week one against the Lions on Thursday night,
Starting point is 00:16:58 If you guys had to bet your life, who has the most receiving yards for the Chiefs in that game? Oh, God, the idea of betting my life on Cadarius Tony sounds terrible. Yeah. You would just die. Decease. So it's either going to be him or Skymore, I would say. Or NBS. Yeah, I guess.
Starting point is 00:17:19 No, I think it has to be MVS. It's incredible how we were just talking, as you said, Craig, on the take perch about what would the Chiefs do without Kelsey? And then Kelsey's gone. and you're like, oh my God. So they got Marquez Valdez Scantling, Skymore, Kedaris, Tony. So you got two dudes who can't line up right with the Super Bowl on the line.
Starting point is 00:17:37 Marquez Valdez, Scantling, who was like the fifth receiver back for Aaron Rogers when they only had Devante. Oh my God. Justin Watson, who was like the star pupil for Jackie's mom at high school.
Starting point is 00:17:47 You ever seen a Chiefs offense without Travis Kelsey on its own? Not for me. Not for me. I feel like Mahomes is still going to pass, like he's going to throw for like 400 yards and three touchdowns. It doesn't matter.
Starting point is 00:17:57 unfasable. So was that bet a part of the power hour? Not really. Because we're not, no one likes that bet that. No, don't actually bet that. Honestly,
Starting point is 00:18:07 well, actually, Craig, that's a good note. While we're on it, don't bet any of these things. You should bet the under on every single player. Like all they bet the unders on everything because intrinsic in anything of like, oh, this player's going to get 10 touchdowns is,
Starting point is 00:18:18 well, they won't get hurt. So you just bet the under on every single thing. You'll probably win. But where's the fun of that? So what that said, all right. Real power hour now because obviously Kaderston 101 is a great, uh,
Starting point is 00:18:28 great bet. and everyone's going to put their mortgage on that. Craig. It's a great appetizer. Yeah, it's a moose. Start us out here. The real first power hour of the season. Kai, start the timer. We're betting to overs, baby.
Starting point is 00:18:37 It's over season. D.K. Metcalf, these lines all courtesy of Fandle. D.K. Metcalf, over seven and a half receiving touchdowns? Come on. He had six last year. Cool. I get that. But this is all based on recency bias.
Starting point is 00:18:49 The year before that, he had 12. Year before that, he had 10. Seattle last year ranked 30th and play success rate inside the red zone. They were terrible there. And D.K. Metcalf led the end. NFL with 22 end zone targets in the red zone. The next closest player had 14. And he only caught five of them, which was 22%. The years before, he was at 42%, 46%. He was catching pretty much half of his end zone targets last year. He caught a fifth. And he caught 90 balls last year, which is the most most of his career. I think DK Metcalf is, I mean, as long as he's healthy, obvious caveat, this is a breeze. He's easily going to get to eight, nine touchdowns. I love this one. I think D.K. Metcalf, one of the most talented receivers in the NFL. He's a little volatile. And I think, The obvious counters to this, Craig, would be that what was the difference last year between the rest of the seasons in his career was that Russell Wilson was not.
Starting point is 00:19:36 Variance. Well, that or Russell Wilson was no longer throwing him moonballs from, you know, 50 yards away and capitalizing in that way. But at the end of the day, I do agree with you. I think it's probably closer to variance. I think the type of player that D.K. McHaff is, he's going to score touchdowns. He's going to create big plays because that's what he is. He's 228 pounds.
Starting point is 00:19:55 He runs a 4-3 and he's bigger than everyone that tries to defend him. And so... Look at them. Just look at them. It's like, you know, sometimes you just got to get the ball in the post. You know what I mean? Absolutely. To get the ball in the post to your biggest guy.
Starting point is 00:20:05 And that's what you do with DK Metcalf. Like, it is saying something, despite the fact that Russell Wilson is no longer tossing him those moon balls, that's like what they are known for and why they work so well together. Like, it is very promising. Gino Smith is still targeting him a ton in the end zone, which is exactly what you said. Like, he is getting those targets. It's just, it's a similar argument to the whole Deonté Johnson thing. He's going to positively regress. He's going to catch more of those passes.
Starting point is 00:20:28 it's just going to happen. Great song. Phenomenal bet, Craig. I'll actually take you one step further. I'm going to go one step further for you, Craig. All right. Okay. D.K. Metcalfe to lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns 25 to 1.
Starting point is 00:20:48 Okay. Okay. So what do you think he's? I love it. What's a number? Throw out a number for me. 14 to 1. Oh, well, so that's the thing. It's like, Devante Adams, 14, led the NFL in receiving touchdowns last year.
Starting point is 00:21:01 Dickie McHuff had 12 two years ago. Like it's not even a stretch. You know what I mean? He literally had 12 two years ago. That would have been second place last year. And as Craig said, again, he led the NFL on end zone targets. And now he's 25 to 1 to lead the league. And essentially end zone catches.
Starting point is 00:21:18 I just feel like this is a mistake, to be honest. Like I don't know what I'm missing. Fandel, Claire, Claire. We're all in on DK McHaff this year, which I love. Do, does the fact that Tyler Lockett is still there and Jackson Smith and Chick is now in this offense, scare you off at all. No,
Starting point is 00:21:33 and also you're the biggest D.K. McK. Defender in the world and now you're playing devil's advocate. What do you know? What are you hiding? What is going on?
Starting point is 00:21:40 D.K. I don't know. TK., you're playing your dad right now. You are. You've turned into your father. Too many drops. Too many drops.
Starting point is 00:21:47 You know, it's, I can't watch a guy who drops to football, even though he scored like more touchdowns over his first three or four seasons than in the NFL than like, how does he see the ball through that dark visor? I don't like that.
Starting point is 00:21:59 Yeah. I mean, yeah, you know me. I'm the biggest D.K. Beck-Kaff defender. High-Fitz has texted me. High-Fitz texted me one time during the off-season, trying to tell me that D.K. Mac-Kaff is overrated.
Starting point is 00:22:11 And I wasted, like, three hours looking up all these stats to, like, just get in an argument. Back and forth pacing in his apartment. Dude, I saw a tweet, and I sent it to D.K. And he sent back, like, these, like, searches for a football reference. And, like, that clearly had taken, like, 20 minutes. He triggered me big time on that one. So, you know, I'm the biggest.
Starting point is 00:22:29 D.K. McCaff defender, I'm just, like you said, I'm playing devil's advocate. Is that, that's not a reason to be scared off because the Jackson Smith and Jigba then? No, it's 25 to 1. Like, all this is priced in. Like, I don't understand. Again, maybe they'll get mad that we're going to bankrupt them. But again, like, just seems reasonable. Man, that's a good song. Love that song. It's a great song. I also love the post-TBD song that we have, like, I just, that's also, I'm sure that's a bop as well. Yeah, yeah. The copyright-free song really bangs. It's incredible. DK, give us your favorite bet for the season.
Starting point is 00:23:00 If you haven't been able to figure this out yet, we got a theme going here. And I'm going with Gino Smith, most passing touchdowns in the NFL. 20 to 1. Among all the top guys in this category, Gino Smith kind of stuck out to me because, number one, he finished fourth in touchdowns last year quietly among quarterbacks. 30. He threw 30 touchdowns. And if you look a little bit deeper than that, it was a very reasonable average 5.2% touchdown rate.
Starting point is 00:23:25 when you see guys lead the NFL in touchdowns, it's typically either because their team throws like a million passes, like Tom Brady a couple years ago, or they have sort of an outlier season in terms of touchdown rate. And so you get see guys pass a touchdown on a 7%, 8%, 9% of their passes. And so if we can see Smith, like we've been talking about, connect on a few more of those DK Metcalf end zone targets. We could see his touchdown rate go up.
Starting point is 00:23:51 I still think the Cocks are going to throw it a lot. I don't think their defense is especially great this year. and they're probably going to be in a lot of shootouts, which is always good for fantasy and scoring and touchdowns and all that. I think he's going to get a year-two jump from his offensive line. He's got a full off-season as the starter. Remember last time this year, he was basically going into camp as a,
Starting point is 00:24:09 it was a competition with Drew Locke. The team, I think, wanted Drew Locke to be the starter. Gino-Smith just said, no, I'm starting. And basically, you know, he didn't get a whole off-season to work with everybody in his offense. So this year, I just think he could really even be better than he was last year. And so at 20-to-1, I'm willing to take those odds. I think the Seahawks offense is going to be really good.
Starting point is 00:24:27 I mean, look at his competition. This bet aged really nicely with Travis Kelsey getting hurt. That obviously hurts Patrick Mahomes. You have another touchdown thrower, Joe Burrow. His health is kind of in question heading into the start of the season. You know, Josh Allen, Stefan Diggs, does he even want to play for the bills? You know, Justin Herbert? Can he take the leap?
Starting point is 00:24:48 Gino Smith might be a nice pick here, D.K. The vibes. The vibes are immaculate with the Seahawks offense right now. Everybody loves J.S.N. obviously we love Lockett. We love D.K. Metcalf. And yeah, I think Gino Smith with Shane Waldron, the offensive coordinator in year two is like the starter.
Starting point is 00:25:04 I think it's going to be. Incredible. Also, the Seahawks were terrible in the Reds, unless you're running the ball. They like ran the ball a ton in the Red Zone and were really inefficient. So perhaps switching to throwing to, you know, Tyler Lockett and D.K. McCav, two of the better receivers in the league is probably the smart move.
Starting point is 00:25:22 Absolutely. The NFL is back and the best place to celebrate is unfair. Because right now all customers can get a no-sweb bet for week one. Just place a bet on any week one NFL game. You'll get bonus bets back if you don't win. Ravens are giving 10 points to the Texans. CJ Straves' first game in the NFL. It's against the Baltimore Ravens.
Starting point is 00:25:45 I got to tell you, I will take the Baltimore Ravens. I'll lay all 10 points. I don't care. And on Fandle, you can bet on spreads, player props, over unders, and more. So visit fandle.com slash ringer fantasy. Kick off the NFL season with America's number one. Sportsbook.
Starting point is 00:25:58 That's fandle.com slash ringer fantasy, 21 plus and present. States refund issue is non-matured, but bonus bets that expire seven days after a seat, max refund $5, unless otherwise specified restriction supplies. See terms at sportsbook.fandal.com. Power hour. Craig, give us number four, give us your second favorite bet for the NFL season. I hate to say it, but Bryce Young, 16 to 1 to lead the league in interceptions. First of all, rookies throw a lot of picks, right? And what I like, what you need to focus on with this bet is that you need to be positive
Starting point is 00:26:29 that the player will not get benched. So a lot of other quarterbacks you think might be, you know, very interception friendly. They could get benched. Like Anthony Richardson could get benched for Gardner-Minchu. I don't think Bryce Young is getting benched. Over the past 20 years, there have been 16 rookie quarterbacks to start at least 16 games. All but one reach double-digit interceptions. Interesting.
Starting point is 00:26:52 Frank Reich's the coach now. I think this team's going to kind of air it out. Frank Reich was there in Philly when Wentz through 14 picks. He was the OC with Rivers when Rivers led the league in interception. You're like Frank Wright's the Meltdown Master? He kind of is. And Thomas Brown, the Panthers OC, he was in L.A. when Stafford led the league in interceptions.
Starting point is 00:27:11 So, look, last year, 15 was led the league. Dak and Davis Mills led the league with 15 picks, which is kind of rough for Dak, considering he played like 12 games. But, I mean, 15 picks for Bryce Young in this offense and his team is going to be terrible. They're going to be behind. They're going to be throwing a lot.
Starting point is 00:27:27 And I don't think he's going to get bench. So I kind of like it. I like this one, too, Craig, because your point. initially where he's not going to get benched is so important. The reason no one's ever going to match the Jamis Winston 30 and 30 club, like 30 touchdowns and 30 picks club,
Starting point is 00:27:41 is because guys are just getting benched way before they even approach 30 interceptions. I'm not saying Bryce is going to throw 30, but there is a like a rate, there are a volume element to this for sure. Like guys are going to be out there all season. So I like that a lot. I think that's good.
Starting point is 00:27:57 And if you watched the Panthers offense in the preseason, again, I'm not saying the preseason is the end, all be all. It doesn't necessarily translate to the regular season. But the Panthers offense looked atrocious in the preseason. And so I'm not super bullish on this group overall. They don't have a good group. They didn't have a good group of receivers. The offensive line was really shaky. Yeah. It's not looking great. Dude, did you see the first six quarters of the Panthers when they actually had their, the preseason is preseason, whatever? The first six quarters, the New York football teams outscored the Panthers like 48 to like six points. Yeah. Like the
Starting point is 00:28:30 Panthers looked abominable. I think this is a really good bet, Craig. I like this a lot. I was trying to time. This is Tom Tom really well, but I failed. Oh, wait, there it is. Tom, Tom, okay. The only thing I like more than this, Craig,
Starting point is 00:28:42 Anthony Richardson is also 16 to 1. And again, I don't know why. Like, maybe I'm an idiot, but 16 to 1, maybe I should be better at math, but that almost implies, I don't know, there's not really even 32 quarterbacks up for this because the guy like Desmond Ridder's probably going to get bench before he can lead the league in Bix.
Starting point is 00:28:59 Why are the rookies starting week one? The only thing I quibble with with your bet, Craig, is I don't think Richardson's getting Benched either. I don't think any of these quarterbacks in starting week one. If you're starting these guys in week one, the philosophy is the only way to learn to swim is to throw them in the pool. They're not going to get thrown in the pool and make mistakes and get taken out of the pool.
Starting point is 00:29:17 Like they're going to have to learn to swim. Anthony Richardson, the entire draft process, what did we say? We said, yeah, probably legally leaguing picks, probably a couple years in a row. But then it'll be great. And I'm like, how is Anthony? Like, never mind the fact that the guys in this team. I mean, there hasn't been exactly great hands out of like Alec Pierce that received this season. That's the top.
Starting point is 00:29:34 Richardson, D.K., you studied all these guys. Why is Anthony Richardson not the odds-on favorite to lead the Lincoln picks now that we know he's starting in week one? I mean, wouldn't you say that they're not going to be the most past heavy team, right? They could be like the Navy Bears of last year, right? That's what I was going to say. Your first point? My first, yeah, my first impression would just be that. Like, they're not going to have the past volume that you need to lead this stat in the NFL.
Starting point is 00:29:58 But at the same time, he is, like, I think it's notorious. He's been off target and a little bit erratic throwing in a short intermediate area. He's actually really accurate, like when he's throwing it deep. He can just air it out. But I think he still has a lot to learn. There's sort of this Tray Lance effect here where he has just not thrown very many passes at all in his college career. And so, you know, he's going to take his lumps early on. They're going to probably be playing from behind a lot of this team is.
Starting point is 00:30:26 And so there's some elements here, but I would say, yeah, Yeah, the only thing that kind of makes me pause is the fact that they're probably just going to run the ball so much with him that he's not going to throw enough passes to lead the NFL in picks. But yeah, I mean, I still like this because, again, he's not going to get benched. And this is a volume stat. So, you know, keep him out there, let him take his lumps. Boom. I think Richardson and Bryce Young to lead the league in picks at 16 to 1 is like stealing. Baker Mayfield's 10 to 1 to lead the league in picks, which makes no sense to me.
Starting point is 00:30:54 Because Baker Mayfield could get benched in week four. before we continue here. Little shout out to YouTube TV. We are supported by NFL Sunday ticket on YouTube and YouTube TV, if you're a displaced fan. NFL Sunday ticket is an absolute must have. And now that it's on YouTube and YouTube TV, it's easier than ever to keep up with all your favorite teams on Sunday afternoons. Since you can watch four preset games at once on multi-view, I don't know. I'm wondering who you guys are like most excited to see in week one.
Starting point is 00:31:20 For me, I kind of just like now that we're here and it's incredible like, oh my God, we talked about the season for six months, seven months now. And now we're here. I'm like, oh, my God, I'm finally going to get to see Bijjan Robinson play football. I remember three years ago, I was talking to our former colleague, Jonathan Charks, who's since passed away. And Charks was telling me, we were talking to the pandemic. And he was like, oh, my God, University of Texas is awesome. Like, we just got the best running back recruit since Adrian Peterson. Like, you know, he hasn't even stepped on campus yet.
Starting point is 00:31:48 And we're all calling by his first name. We just call him Bejohn. And I think now he's going to, like, play in the NFL. I cannot wait to just see Bijjohn, like, get out there. And his first run. the preseason was like incredible. Yeah. Everything about this guy is super excited.
Starting point is 00:32:01 I cannot wait to see how they utilize him. Can't wait to see what they do with him on the field. I'm really excited about seeing the Russell Wilson comeback tour this year potentially with the Broncos. Sean Payton kind of like pulling no punches. And so I think that's going to be really interesting to see if he can, you know, revive his career because everybody has left him for dead at this point. Yeah, I'm excited for two of versus Herbert week one.
Starting point is 00:32:22 I'm excited for the shootout potential of this game. I'm kind of like getting back to the two a high octane Miami offense. It obviously ended on a weird note last year. So I'm excited to see what that looks like when everyone is healthy and on the field. And then there's Herbert Kellynmore offense. We've been waiting for years now
Starting point is 00:32:37 for Herbert and the Chargers team to fully put it together. So I'm pretty excited for that week one. All right. Thank you to NFL Sunday ticket on YouTube and YouTube TV for sponsoring this segment. It truly is the best place to keep up with all your favorite teams out of market Sunday afternoon games. And right now you can get $50 off your subscription
Starting point is 00:32:53 when you sign up at YouTube.com slash ringer fantasy. Terms in blackout restrictions apply all for end September 19th. All right. DK. Number six on our power hour. Give us another one of your favorite bets for this season. All right. Here we go.
Starting point is 00:33:05 Tua, Tagovaloa, most passing yards in the NFL. It is 18 to 1. If you go back last year, obviously the concussion issue was a big story last year. And, you know, he came back this off season. He's been practicing, like, Jiu-Zitsu to learn how to fall and all this stuff. But if you look at the, the 12 games he started and then played most of the snaps last year,
Starting point is 00:33:27 he averaged 286 passing yards per game. Over a full season, that would be almost 5,000 yards. It would have ranked second to Mahomes only last year. And we've talked about Mahomes. If they have no Kelsey, is Mahomes getting to 5,000 yards? I don't know.
Starting point is 00:33:41 And so I think this is a good bet. This is the fastest offense we have ever seen put together in NFL history. The Vibrations! Yeah, Tyreek Waddle, Mostert, Devon A-Chane. So I don't know, I just like this. This is a, you know, they're going to pass a lot. I think they're going to pass it deep. These receivers all have a lot of run after the catchability,
Starting point is 00:34:01 which also makes it easier on Tua. And yeah, bonus one here is Tyree Kill. Most receiving guards is nine and a half to one. The reason why I like this bet is because the only thing standing in the way is health. We know that if this team is on the field, we've seen it and we know what they're capable of. It is just health. There is no scheme issue. no fit problem. There's no new coach that could mess things up. It is like wheels up if everyone's
Starting point is 00:34:30 on the field. Yeah, the dolphins are just two will thorough movies. They're just the coaching of kicking and screaming. Just pass it to the Italians, Tyree Kill and Jail Loddle. And then their GM is just doing the Talladega Nights like, hello. This team is like Al Davis and Mark Davis is like what wet dream. This is like what they always wanted. You know, like I wonder if Mark Davis is like, damn it, they stole my thing. Can we get Darius Hayward Bayback? I mean, is he still kicking around? He played in the NFL for like 10 years.
Starting point is 00:34:59 Put him on his roster. That was my thing, by the way. The fast player thing was me. Turns out it's actually a smart thing to do. So who knew? All right. My next one here, dude, Eagles receiver Devante Smith,
Starting point is 00:35:14 45 to 1 to lead the NFL on receiving yards. Oh, wow. Wow. Now, mind you, Alabama, Heisman, Devon. Smith first husband receiver in almost three decades. Remember he had like 200 yards at halftime in the national championship game? Just reminding who Devonty Smith is.
Starting point is 00:35:29 So, Devante Smith had the second most receiving yards in the final six weeks of the season last year. Like, final third of the season, Devonty Smith had more yards than Justin Jefferson. And yet, to lead this season in receiving yards, Justin Jefferson is four to one and Devante Smith is 45 to one. Riddle me that. quietly, Devante Smith finished eighth last year in receiving yards. I didn't actually know that. That's just one of those things because he's the number two on his office. And so I think there's a lot of people probably just assume it's going to be A.J. Brown that does this.
Starting point is 00:36:03 But this happens sometimes in the NFL. This is 1A and 1B in terms of the two top receivers on this team. And I mean, I'm a huge Devante Smith believer. The Slim Reaper. They call him the Slim Reaper. One of the best nicknames in the NFL. That's DeRand. That's Kevin Durant's nickname.
Starting point is 00:36:19 Oh, did he steal it? Well, I still like it. Come on. Think of something else. Be original. Come on, Philly. Jesus. Well, let's be real.
Starting point is 00:36:28 All right, Warriors fan. Be careful about being like, oh, he stole Kevin Durant's nickname. You stole Kevin Durant's nickname. You stole Kevin Durant. So, like, just chill. We didn't steal him. He signed with us Fair and Square on July 4th.
Starting point is 00:36:38 Best Day of my life. He was drafted by the Sonics, and then the Sonics are no more at this point. So don't talk to me about that. Wow, I never realized Kevin Durant was like the fiber of the show. what's going on with his weight? No one's talked about it this offseason. It was such a narrative last year.
Starting point is 00:36:53 Has he put on weight after his first year in the league? Is he heavy? I think he was just good. So I think he was just good at football. And then we were like, all right, well, we can't. We were like, you can't do a headline that's like, is he too skinny? Well, he was good. So it's fine.
Starting point is 00:37:06 If there was a report that came out that he put on five pounds, I would literally move him up like five spots in my rankings. I think this is that point, though. interrupted. But what I was going to say real quick before we move on, Devante Smith, very skinny,
Starting point is 00:37:24 but also incredibly, incredibly long, like long arms, really tall, spindly type guy. He has like the reach of, he actually has the reach of like Kevin Durant almost.
Starting point is 00:37:34 No, he definitely does not. No, he does not. He does not almost. Kevin Durant's wingspan is like seven four. 100% not true. Jeez, I was exaggerating.
Starting point is 00:37:45 Okay. Kevin Duran is a foot taller. But there's a lot of guys that have come into the NFL that are skinny. But they're also tiny. He's going to get hurt in week five and everyone's going to be like, well, he's pretty skinny. We always thought this. Guarantee it. Someone, I had a friend who took like C.D. Lamb and Devante Smith with their first two picks.
Starting point is 00:38:01 And I was like, you have the thinest team in the history of football. I was like, you have like, we need to get, we need grandmothers or grandmothers to feed your team. Vante Smith has the reach of Manute Bowl. I said it. You guys are so upset with me for saying that. All right, moving on. All right, whatever. DK, just give us a new freaking bet, man.
Starting point is 00:38:20 Jeez. So we're going with most rookie receiving yards. So most receiving yards from a rookie pass catcher. And I'm going with Dalton Kincaid. And that might sound weird because he's a tight end. But I think the important thing to hear is it would be a mistake to think of him as a tight end. I think he's essentially just going to be a receiver for the bills. This is an offense last year that finished second in points scored.
Starting point is 00:38:42 Top 10 in both passing yards and passing attempts. per game. And I think there's still a lot of, there's just a vacancy in terms of the overall number two receiver in this offense. Like obviously Gabe Davis is still there. He could end up being the guy. There's a couple other players that could emerge. But after Stefan Diggs, Dalton Kincade could end up being the number two receiver in this
Starting point is 00:39:04 offense, you know, especially maybe like a month down the line where things start to like really click for Kincade. And I think he could end up leading all rookie receivers in and yards. I mean, if you look at all the other rookie receivers and rookie receivers and rookie. tight ends. A lot of these guys are kind of stuck behind players. Jordan Addison is stuck behind Justin Jefferson. We don't really know if he's going to play a huge amount of snaps even at this point. Jackson Smith and Jigba, who is the top receiver taken. He's stuck behind
Starting point is 00:39:29 D.K. McCaff and Tyler Lockett. It kind of goes, go down the line. We don't even know if Quentin Johnson's going to play. We don't know what this offense for Baltimore is going to look like was Zay Flowers. And so I think Kincaid is like with the one guy who stands out who's going to have a big role early on, I think. I like everything about this except you texted me a couple days ago that Luke Musgrave was 60 to 1 and I'd read Luke Musgrave for the Packers another rookie tight end is starting I'm like dude
Starting point is 00:39:53 Luke Musgrave 60 to 1 I mean I like that one too 20 to 1 for Kincaid make it a trifecta 12 weeks later Sam Laporta is 40 to 1 he's also playing on a good offense it could be the number 2 receiver on that team one of them's got a hit right I love that rookie tight ends are like yeah at least one of them worst bet ever and we're like well what if you just bet all of them that you can't lose Just three terrible bets parley.
Starting point is 00:40:18 We're basically saying, we're basically saying, well, if you just bet on red, black, and green, and roulette, you have to win. All right, Craig, give us another bet here. Kenny Pickett, over 17 and a half passing touchdowns. Justin Fields through 17 passing touchdowns last year, I rest my case. That's it. Craig, you have two minutes. Is there anything else you want to have? Okay, all right, fine.
Starting point is 00:40:45 I'll expand. No, no, but for real. anything else? Like, Craig, I know you're doing like a renovation in your house. Like, should we, I'm in. We have free time. Say less. But for real, right? The Steelers were like the most anemic offense. They were the least explosive team in the league last year, literally dead last year. They scored two touchdowns outside of the Red So last year. Two. Which is so... Yeah, they were. But despite their best efforts. They were the second most explosive team in preseason this year. When I said that, you yelled at me.
Starting point is 00:41:12 Look, I'm trying to make a case here. Pickett is obviously, you know, one of the major candidates to take the biggest leap this year. 17 and a half is disrespectfully low. Like I said, Justin Fields through 17 in 15 games last year, he threw 17 touchdowns. Davis Mills threw 17 touchdowns last year. Andy Dalton threw 18 and only
Starting point is 00:41:31 14 games. And we're putting Kenny Pickett at 17 and a half. That is disrespectful. Davis. It's so disrespectful. The second is at the fourth hardest schedule in the league last year. How dare you? The seventh easiest this year. Come on. Andy Dalton at 18?
Starting point is 00:41:46 Davis Mills. Who is the other name? You said, Justin Fields and Davis Mills. Fields through 17 touchdowns and 15 games. And we're giving Kenny Pickett 17 and a half. The Bears offense last year, Craig, as we've said many times, was like, what are the run heaviest offenses in the modern era?
Starting point is 00:42:03 Like, legitimately the Navy offense. And he's, he did that many. I have a bone to pick with Fandall. Fandall, call me. Why is he at 17 and a half? Explain that to me. Do they think he's getting benched? What's going on there?
Starting point is 00:42:15 He's not getting benched. It, none of it makes any sense. So this is the easiest bet of the day. I can't believe High Fitz ranked this at nine. I'm insulted by that as well. Craig did add on. If you don't like you ordered this, I rank them. Ah.
Starting point is 00:42:29 Okay. I want to add one thing on. Kenny Pickett's over under on passing yards. 3,300 and a half. That's like a hundred and ninety four yards a game if he plays the whole season. Come on. It's like Fandle made this line in February. and hasn't checked it since.
Starting point is 00:42:47 Come on, Fandall. Actually, you know what? This is great. This is free money. So my boy picked it. What can go wrong? Remember when we found Jalen Hertz to lead the league
Starting point is 00:42:57 in rushing touchdowns a couple years ago it was like 100 to 1 and we were like, is this a mistake? And we were like, don't tell Fandall. We all made, yeah. Feels like that. All right. While we're talking about bets,
Starting point is 00:43:06 that I can't believe that waited this long, Mike Evans, having a thousand receiving yards is plus money. It's plus 130. So you put a dollar down. You'll get $1.30 back. plus your dollar. And then Brandon Cook's to have a thousand yards is plus
Starting point is 00:43:20 230. So these are literally, again, entering last season, the only receivers that had had a thousand yards in six of the previous seven seasons were Mike Evans, Brandon Cooks, and Travis Kelsey, RIP to Travis Kelsey. Both these guys are getting hurt immediately. Yeah. Oh yeah, I know. Sorry, I'm plugging. Yeah. You guys should be careful, by the way, now that I have this newfound power. You lumping these two in with Travis Kelsey is insane.
Starting point is 00:43:44 a crazy move out of you to be like, look, come on, the most consistent players in the league like Travis Kelsey. Is Mike Evans going to play? Is he playing? He might get traded. Yeah. Which might be good for him. Mike Evans will do anything to keep the 1,000 yards streak alive.
Starting point is 00:43:59 No one cares more about the 1,000 yards every season of Mike Evans's career more than Mike Evans. I'm telling you. Does he have the record? What is the record for most consecutive? To start a career. Yeah, like eight seasons in a row. It's insane.
Starting point is 00:44:12 That's not really a thing that other people. done. But he's in a contract thing. I don't think Mike Evans is going to do anything to disturb the 1,000 yards. We did the all boring fantasy roster like a month ago, just like all the best players who are boring to draft, but will be successful on your team. This is like the all boring bit where there's just nothing sexy or exciting around us. While we're here, fine, that'll give you something better. But the Buccaneers are plus 600 to make the playoffs. The Buccaneers are plus 750 to win the division. They won the division last year. I like, I know Tom Brady's gone. It's a tough division too. It's tough.
Starting point is 00:44:44 Sarcasm. Is it? Yeah, okay. Oh. I was like, what? Dude, the NFC South, I get, again, the Bucks, they lost Tom Brady. They still have seven of their starting defenders from when they won the Super Bowl. Yeah, but you're just washing over.
Starting point is 00:44:57 I get it. They lost Tom Brady. But the Panthers. Okay. Put it this way. The NFC South is famously a crapshoot. If you bet on every team, the Bucks would be twice as profitable as the Panthers if they won the division. How does that make sense?
Starting point is 00:45:13 You're saying the buck's... That doesn't make any sense. No. The Panthers are plus 360. I'm saying the buck shouldn't be plus 750. I'm with you on that. All right. Give us another couple bets here, Craig.
Starting point is 00:45:23 Josh Jacobs, over 1,000 rushing yards. The line is 1,000.5 rushing yards. Josh Jacobs ran for 1,653 yards last year. This line suggests that he is going to run for 40% less yards. That's it. That's my whole argument. He's going to run for a thousand yards. I love how succinct you are today.
Starting point is 00:45:46 He is playing. There is no competition creeping up behind him. I'm not buying any Samir-white BS that we tried to convince ourselves of last year. One thousand yards for Josh Jacobs. That's like 62 yards a game. 40% less than last year. That is ridiculous. This is essentially just betting that he's going to get hurt.
Starting point is 00:46:07 If you go, if you don't take that. I think you can do it in 12 games, which he did last year. I have, yeah, I have no notes here. This is, what are the odds? What are the odds? What are the odds? Like, 1250 or something. A thousand yards?
Starting point is 00:46:20 I think, Craig, your point to there's not very much competition is so true to. Like, I just don't think they have anybody out. That's why they were able to get a deal done to, like, keep him in Las Vegas and give him a little bit extra money to come back. And they just, I think the raiders don't feel they have like a ton of talent behind him right now. Zemir White is just fine. Josh Jacobs is now underrated. I can't.
Starting point is 00:46:41 This guy had two. thousand yards last year. He had 400 touches. He's 25 years old. And no one cares about him. No one gives his shit. How is he only 25? That's wild. That's again, like how Sam Darnels is a year older than Kenny Pickett. Like Josh Jacobs being the same age as
Starting point is 00:46:56 Kenny Pickett's kind of hilarious. It really is. He doesn't, I mean, literally this whole season, he's 25. He turns 26 in February. February 11th, so the Super Bowl. Anyway, I just that's how I feel about. We have 10 seconds left. The Raiders gave him 23 touches
Starting point is 00:47:13 the game last year. That's second only to Derek Henry. They're going to feed him again. I like this one a lot. Any other bets you guys like? Do a little clearinghouse right now? A quick one here. D-K., do you want to combine for a two-minuteter? Let's all do a minute. You do a minute?
Starting point is 00:47:32 Sure. Okay. Deshaun Watson over 23 and a half passing touchdowns feels low. I get it. He threw for seven last year. It was a disaster. The three years before that, 33, 26, 26. And again, his line this year is 23 and a half. Dishon Watson completed 8% of his passes in the end zone last year.
Starting point is 00:47:51 I mean, like, every stat is just horrific. 8% of his passes in the end zone, he completed. Eight. That was the worst red zone completion rate of any quarterback in the last decade. Who is worse than that outside the decade? My bet here is just like, look, even if he's decent, like 23 and a half is not a lot. You know, it's a touchdown and a half a game, essentially. Less.
Starting point is 00:48:17 Do you want me to run through a few here? Yeah. All right. Here's a couple I like. Derek Henry, most regular season scrimmage yards is 10 to 1. That's insulting. Last year he was second to Josh Jacobs. So it just feels like that they're going to feed him again.
Starting point is 00:48:34 Nothing is going to change. Here's another one I like. Lamar Jackson, most rushing yards among quarterbacks is three and a half to one. Oh, wow. It feels like he could absolutely win that. I feel like there's a chance. Justin Fields isn't going to run quite as much as he did last year. year. It was like a little bit of desperation last year.
Starting point is 00:48:49 Another going to try and actually develop him as a runner or as a pastor this year, I think. Another one I like. Chris Godwin over 800.5 receiving yards. I just think he's going to be the number one guy. Chris Evans might not even, sorry, Mike Evans might not even be there. Chris Evans might not either. I think Chris Evans might not be. Chris Godwin is sitting there as one of the sneakier bets in fantasy drafts. I really do believe that.
Starting point is 00:49:12 I think there's a, like he could have an 100 catch season and actually be Baker's go-to guy and put up a really solid season. Again, this is a guy who's the year after the year after the ACL. He's still young. He's really talented. People are off him, but I like it. He's their go-to guy. All right, we're going to disrespect, Tom. Tom. I got a couple more.
Starting point is 00:49:32 I got a couple more real quick. Run through him. Darren over 650 receiving yards. That feels ludicrously low. Maybe it's just because of his hamstrings. It's his injury history. I get that. But this is a guy who's, you know, he's got a thousand-year potential.
Starting point is 00:49:45 And then I got a couple commanders, for you. Sam Howell over 3,075 passing yards again. This is a very low number. I guess you're just banking. They're maybe expecting him to get benched at some point. And then related to that, Jahan Dotson, 725.5 receiving yards. I would bet you over on that one. I just think he's going to have a breakout year. He's going to be Sam Howell's go-to guy. So I like those two together. That's why I got it's over. It's over season, baby. Love overs. I would just say if you're a Jets fan, if you're a Jets fan bet Aaron Rogers to have 4,000, over 4,000 yards is like plus 130.
Starting point is 00:50:18 The Jets 7 had a 4,000 yard passer since Joe Namath. So I just thought that was endearing. Wow. But then other than that, the only endearing that truly caught my, my fancy. Do you guys remember the Jaguars Chargers game? The playoff game were the first half of it,
Starting point is 00:50:31 when Asante Samuel Jr., the cornerback, who also made me feel really old because I remember Sante Samuel. But you remember he had three picks in the first half of that game. Yeah. Yeah. Asante Samuel Jr. is 95 to 1 to lead the NFL in picks this year.
Starting point is 00:50:45 like it. I don't know. Just caught my eye. All right. That's our first power hour of the season. Let's do some emails. Loved it.
Starting point is 00:50:56 Every Wednesday power hour. I got into the text. Someone mad at me about Travis Kelsey just now. People are pissed at me. I just love that you're just taking this in the chin that you recommend that people draft Travis Kelsey. Well, I think it's not a jinxed because I just said how healthy he'd been for 10 years.
Starting point is 00:51:13 Yeah, you leaned in too hard and knew the health thing. would have just stuck with you, I have no problem with you taking him one overall. Yeah, yeah. The irony is the thing I was like, you know, Cooper Cup missed time last year and then other both Hifitz is the guy in the dugout who's like, oh my God, we're so close to a perfect game. We're in the ninth inning. Like you don't talk about it. Just don't say it. Yeah, I'm the announcer. Don't look at the picture. Do not look at Travis Kelsey. Don't speak to him. You jinxed it. All right. We got an email. We got an email from Eddie. Eddie. Eddie. I was listening to draft prep shows and Danny Kip,
Starting point is 00:51:48 encouraging those users to not draft a kicker. Over and over, Danny would say, don't draft a kicker, pick one up later. But he never once went on a rant about how rules are stupid requiring us to have kickers, even though any mention of rushing versus passing yards since Danny on tangent, why should we have kickers? We don't talk about this enough. I don't you guys feel.
Starting point is 00:52:03 I like kickers. I like kickers a lot. And I think that people who want to remove kickers, I actually, I don't, I just like randomness. Are you guys that on kickers? You know what? Here's what I'll say. I actually, I do think, just objectively, rooting for a kicker on your fantasy team to nail a 50-yard field goal and get five points in one kick is actually kind of fun.
Starting point is 00:52:24 I think kickers are dumb. I think it's stupid. I don't want any part of it. There's two things that I come back to. One, the main argument for kickers or getting people get rid of kickers, what they say is, well, kickers, it's all random. You can't predict it. Yeah, well, that's life.
Starting point is 00:52:40 Sorry. Like, you have to keep one element of that. And the other thing is, that's how they decide the real game. games. Like, I got a quibble with that, too. Get kickers out of my football here. I just think it's incredible that people like John Harbaugh,
Starting point is 00:52:54 who like genuinely like live and die with the outcome of their games still have to depend, even when they have Justin Tucker, still have to depend on this guy to go out and just kick a ball through the up rates. That is nothing to do with the rest of the game. It's like their entire livelihoods depend on it. I'm with it. But I believe you, it's where, look,
Starting point is 00:53:11 if we have to suffer through kickers in real life deciding games, I'd as well have them decide your fantasy match. Exactly. Here's where my biggest pushback is like the best advice you can give on kickers is to wait until your last pick to take him. Like that alone is like, who cares? Why are we, why do we care about this? Well, teams don't even pay running backs. We take them in the first round. I'm just saying like if it if you're like, if our advice is to wait until the very last pick, that implies these kickers don't matter. It's stupid. Why are we doing this? This is dumb. You know what I mean? I love it. Like, I think it's stupid. Just, I don't know.
Starting point is 00:53:47 That's where I am. I'm in a lot of leagues that don't have them. Just put a flex there. You know how once a year, like Robbie Gould or something just has 32 points in a game? Yeah. I would argue there is no better feeling in fantasy football than your kicker having one of those random 30-point games. It is better than any other outcome.
Starting point is 00:54:05 It's better than your quarterback throwing for seven touchdowns than Camara running for five. Your kicker putting up like 28 points is the best feeling in fantasy football. I have never at one point in my life. seen a kick during an NFL game and thought, hey, he's on my team. I have no idea who my kicker is. Like, I don't, I don't, I don't, 23 leagues.
Starting point is 00:54:24 You have all the kickers. No, I'm talking about redraft it. None of my dynasty leagues have kickers. Like, I think I'm in like two leagues that have kickers. I still don't know. I want to be in a kicker only dynasty league. Yeah, Craig. That sounds similar.
Starting point is 00:54:37 That's a trillion dollar idea. You might have to cut that and just like start a business. All right. We got an email from Tom. Tom, Tom, Tom. All right. So, D.K. Last week, DK defended Josh Harris, the new owner of the Washington Commanders from his awkward handshake.
Starting point is 00:54:51 Because DK himself did a really awkward handshake with me and a coworker of ours. Tom said, I'm at that vein. I'm at a cocktail bar a couple months ago, and I'm at the bar and I order a drink for myself and my girlfriend, Flex. Flex. Nice. Tom. The bartender finishes the drinks. Bartender puts them on the bar, proceeds to describe what is in the drinks.
Starting point is 00:55:11 And the bartender with an open hand points to which drink is which. I instinctively reach over the bar and shake his open hand for two to three seconds. I then noticed the bartender's brain break. I also noticed the other bartender's staring at me. And I realized he did not intend to shake my hand, at which point I pull away and yell, oh, God. You stick your hand out, I'm shaking it.
Starting point is 00:55:37 Luckily, at a bar, hopefully it was crowded and you can just like recede back into the darkness and never order a drink again. Slink back into the crowd. He also says that it brought up childhood trauma if he was six years old. And Joel Presbilla, I'm not going to lie, I don't remember I pronounce his name. He was on the box, an NBA player. And he shook his hand.
Starting point is 00:55:55 He was six years old, but he forgot that he had like a tuts, a chewed tutsy roll in his hand. And he just like let it stick to Joel Prisbillazan. He was six. That's like one of those like, that's like a prank. Like we have like the buzzer in your palm and shock somebody. I did it by accident. Oh my God. I feel like there's a lot of trauma.
Starting point is 00:56:14 in there's a lot of collected trauma in our society of people just fucking up handshakes. Handshakes are hard, man. They're high pressure situations. I think that's your best take. I really think that. Handshakes are hard. There's too many.
Starting point is 00:56:29 There should be one kind only. Email us in regular fantasy football at gmail.com. You ever seen Donald Trump? Donald Trump shake a hand? Jesus. That's a journey. All right, bad band names. Got a lot of emails from bad bad names.
Starting point is 00:56:44 Ethan shouted out that there was one called The The Oh geez Oh God I remember this They tried to learn with that Also we got a long list from somebody named Joey Who sent to
Starting point is 00:56:54 Joey Imagine dragons Yeah Yeah I think about that Okay I'm done imagining him Move on A limp biscuit
Starting point is 00:57:04 Yeah that's bad And then Miles sent it Maroon 5 What is that like a die That was like an AI generated name the room five. Think about it. That's like the dye they put in Coca-Cola.
Starting point is 00:57:19 But, yes. Oh, God. That red five died that like kills you. Yeah. Whatever that's called. It's like in like red velvet cupcakes. You get at Ralph's.
Starting point is 00:57:38 Yeah. But the music we got the most emails about this week was our own, our own intro music. We got, I'm not kidding. we got hundreds of emails. Hundreds? That basically were hundreds of that were basically a derivation of, wow, I'm not crazy. You really do have two different versions of the intro music.
Starting point is 00:57:53 This is amazing. So if you listen to this right now, we do have two versions. I think Craig said it to Kai. We Kai started producing and then there were two files. I don't know what happened. I don't know why there are two different versions, to be honest. Because this song is like a,
Starting point is 00:58:07 it's like in one of those like copyrights, you know, royalty free banks that we pay for at the ringer. I found it. I thought it was good. So I don't know why there are two different versions because I'm pretty sure I just downloaded the only version available. There's just one on the site.
Starting point is 00:58:21 So there's a mystery. We got an email from Franco who said, I'm going to try to be, I'm going to try to like do my best to explain this over text. He said, primarily the notes in the intro song go, be boop, be boop, be boop, be boop.
Starting point is 00:58:36 But the other version is beep, beep, beep, beep, beep. No, but I actually know exactly what Franco's saying. It's B-boop. Be-boop. Be-boop. That's how the show should sound. And then sometimes now it's just, you just get rid of the boots. There's no boots. There's no boobs.
Starting point is 00:58:57 Oh, my God. What is this conversation? This is like the people out there right now, like Charlie Kelly, they get it. Dude, it's like the massive conspiracy board. And then the guy behind the counter is like, hey, can you just order it, man? Pepe Sylvia. I'm like, you don't get it. It was B-boop, B-bo, B-bo, B-bo, B-bo, B-bo, B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-Cat.
Starting point is 00:59:18 Can you just order your coffee? Bebe, B-B, Carol. There is no Pepi-Sylvia. I take full responsibility for the fact that there is a random second version of this song that I don't know where it came from. That's unbelievable. Release the boop cut. This is truly one of the best things I can remember coming from this show. Like, when I saw that email,
Starting point is 00:59:40 I was like, oh my God. Like I totally realized it was like subconscious, but I had noticed it before, you know? I think there were a lot of people who noticed this but thought they were crazy. But now everyone listening who did notice is like, oh my God, now I do know. Here's what I want.
Starting point is 00:59:58 I want you to hold this accountable. I want people to tell me when they hear it. The last time you heard it, if it was a month ago and you think you heard it, let me know. Email so ringer fantasy football atchima.com. This reminds me of like someone who plays the long, term prank on someone where they're like every third day they shave a quarter of an inch off
Starting point is 01:00:15 someone's table and then with after like a dwight true gym thing in the office that's exactly back when men knew how to do tools exactly right you have to commit to it over time he like puts a he puts a literal quarter inside of dwight's phone every single day so the phone is a little bit heavier every day and then at the very end he just takes them all out hits himself in the head with the phone. Oh, God. Move your table an inch every day. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:00:46 All right. It's good shit. I's been removing one boop from the theme song every once a week for the last 12 months. It is. Thank you, TK. Thank you, Craig. Do we thank Guy? Absolutely.
Starting point is 01:01:01 All right. Thanks, Kai, for all the, we'll figure out what we're going to do with all those boops and the beeps. Thank you. Tucker. Thank you, and Jack. Thank you, everyone. It's like. Like the SpongeBob quote with Mr. Crabs.
Starting point is 01:01:13 Be, boo-boo-bo-bop, boob, bo-bo-b-b-b-b? No, no, I think it went boo-bib-boob. Be-boo. It's the most unhinged conversation. People will know it. There's a thing on TikTok. Craig, there's a thing on TikTok that's like, I don't know who needs to hear this, but pee-pee-poopy, pooh-bo-pee.
Starting point is 01:01:33 It's like the fucking weirdest thing. And then there's back to go, we, woo. Oh, my God. Thank you, Lauren. Lauren. Thank you, Jane's addiction. Dude, no. Oh, D.K.
Starting point is 01:01:46 I'm actually, how did you not go Jimmy Buffett? Oh, Jimmy Buffett. Smash mouth, yeah. Jimmy Buffett. Oh, Smash mouth. Both of them. RIP. Very sad news.
Starting point is 01:01:59 Smash mouth, I would argue, High Fitz. Tell me what you think about this. Is one of the most influential bands of our generation, mainly because of Shrek? That song AllStar has an insane staying power. We put it on our playlist for our live show. Yeah. Well, and not only also, I believe I'm a believer is also on that soundtrack. That's not really their song, though.
Starting point is 01:02:23 I know, but it's why we know it. It's why my generation knows I'm a believer is because of Smash Mouth. And specifically from Shrek. Are you guys parrot heads? I don't know what that means. No, but we just like, it means Jimmy Buffett. We like Jimmy Buffett. Oh, yeah, I like Jimmy Buffett.
Starting point is 01:02:41 My favorite, it was circulating Twitter, but that shot from Jurassic World, the first one. The large new one. Drinks. Running with the margaritas is really good. He runs with two margaritas in the same. That's just freaking classic. I love shit like that movie.
Starting point is 01:03:00 All type bit. We're just going to have some super like weird reference that has nothing to do with the world. Dinosaurs. The hell of it. Teradactals are flying, descending on you, and you pick up your two margaritas. And there's a Margaritaville at the park. It's just so good.
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