The Ringer NFL Show - The Worst Bets for Wild-Card Weekend

Episode Date: January 13, 2022

Betting is more fun when you ignore the stats and go with your gut, right? We discuss the bets that have caught our eyes, offer our takes, and use all the wrong reasons to wager on Wild-Card Weekend. Worst Picks (2:14) Emails (56:21) To compete and play DFS against us on FanDuel during the NFL playoffs, click here! Hosts: Danny Heifetz, Danny Kelly, and Craig Horlbeck Producer: Craig Horlbeck Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

I'm Derek Thompson, long-time writer with the Atlantic Magazine on tech culture and politics. There is a lot of noise out there, and my goal is to cut through the headlines, loud, tweets, and hot takes in my new podcast, plain English. I'll talk to some of the smartest people I know to give you clear viewpoints and memorable takeaways. Plain English starts November 16th. Listen for free on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Fantasy Football Show. My name is Danny Hyfitz. I am joined by Danny Kelly and Craig Horlebeck,

and this is the worst bets for Wild Card Weekend. I mean, look, if you want good bets, you can go to Warren Sharp. That's where we have the ringer gambling show. If you want fun bets, here we are. We have a whole fee dedicated to making money. That's not what we're here for. We're here to have a good time. Yeah.

We're trying to have a good time. We're going to have a good time. Sometimes you want to bet on a team. That's bad because you want to root for them. That's why we're here. We got this. So we're recording this on Wednesday. It's before final injury reports or anything.

things. Keep that in mind. Again, these are the worst bets. If they were the best bets, we'd probably be recording it after the injury reports, but alas, here we are. We're going to toss out what we think about the weekend's games. We're going to give our takes. We're going to circle back around at the end. We're actually going to figure out what we are betting with our own actual money. We're going to put them on this weekend. First, we are also doing the Fandul.

Listener League again for the playoffs. So every round of the playoffs, it's like the whole playoff slate, DFS on Fandul. We have the link in the episode description, but if not, Fandle.com slash ringer slash I'm sorry. I was wrong. It's Fandul.com slash ringer listener league.

Yeah. If you go to fandle.com slash ringer listener league, you can play with us. It's five bucks to enter DFS for the whole weekend. Okay, check that out. It's in the episode link. With all that said, let's just get to it.

Easy, peasy. DK. What do you want to bet on this weekend? I want to bet on something Josh Allen. Something Josh Alleny. I feel like Josh Allen is, is one of the people to watch this weekend. You know what I mean?

He's just, I actually wrote about this week. He reminds me of like Achilles. Like he has a few little vulnerabilities here, here and there. But like if you watch the movie, Troy, I think it was called Troy. I love Troy. Brad Pitt played Achilles. I don't know. It just reminds me of Josh Allen, the way he can like, if he's on, if he's like motivated,

if he's not like he's an unmotivated guy, but like if he's like clued in and keyed in, Like he could just put the whole army on his back. He could just go out there and like kick some ass by himself and take over a game. I want to bet on Josh Allen because I just think he's going to be the most fun guy to watch this weekend, the most fun player. And I think he's going to run a lot. So the first bet I was looking at was under 243 and a half passing yards. That's just where I want to start out. What do you guys?

Okay, just to be clear, just to be clear, you're like, Josh Allen, he's Achilles. He's like a Greek myth. I want to bet his under. Is that what I'm hearing? Because. High fits. Yes, that's a good point. That is a good point.

However, my point was, because I think he's going to be running all over the place and scoring touchdowns with his legs, trucking people, jukeing people,

like keeping it on read options and bootlegs and things like that. Also, by the way, it's going to be like nine degrees. And it might snow. Again, whether if we were better at betting, we'd probably bet closer

to the game and know the weather, but it might snow. And I'm going to, for these purposes, believe it will snow because that'd be way cooler. Yeah. Yeah. So bottom line is, I know that I just hyped up Josh Allen a lot. I don't think it's going to be a big passing game for Josh Allen.

I think, and in fact, I saw Mina Kimes posted this the other day. Josh Allen has a 50% completion percentage when the weather is freezing in his career, which is 40th out of 41 qualifying quarterbacks over the last 15 seasons. Wait, 40 to 41? Is that skewed, though, because of how bad he was in the first two years of his group, probably. Maybe. So here's the thing. I actually agree with you a lot

that the bills are going to start running more. Like the Bill's offense, I think, has gotten way better as they've started running. And I think they've been saving Josh Allen's running for the playoffs. Like Bill Simmons always used to talk about how the Patriots as Groncat older would keep him in the garage. And then they take them out of the garage and warm up the engine for the playoffs.

I think that Josh Allen's the same thing because they don't want him to get hurt in the regular season. But like, they are at their absolute best when Josh Allen's the goal lineback. And I actually agree with you on that front. My only concern is like, I don't want to bet against Bill Belichick in the playoffs and I kind of don't care about

Mack Jones being a rookie quarterback and I kind of just like you can get Belichick, Belichick and four points in the playoffs and I kind of just want to do that. And I don't know. Like, am I being a coward? I kind of want to bet against Bill Belichick in the playoffs. I got a Bill's bet. Yeah.

I don't know why. I got a Bill's bet in the arsenal here. I got a tease. I like, I just feel like, or sorry, not a tease. I got to just a straight up parlay. I just want to put the bills and Niners right together. Ooh.

Really? Yeah. You know what? Like, Mac Jones has been sucking. The Bills have beaten the Patriots three weeks ago. Josh Hound had a great game. And like, I understand that like Belichick can do anything in the playoffs. But I kind of want to bet on the best quarterback in the league right now.

Well, wait, no, no. Over, you mean in the round, not counting Rogers. You got to feel alive. You got to bet against Bill Belichick in the NFL playoffs. That's where I keep coming back to. I keep coming back to like the, I guess here's the problem with this Bill's Patriots game. This feels like it could, it should be a division. round game, and it feels like it could be

the AFC championship game. And instead, you're getting like one of those, like, third time they've played wildcard weekend game. But, like, this is easily to me the best game of the weekend, right? Saturday night. Like, this is a crazy game to get to watch. You know how Bill like always, Bill Belichick, like, gets rid of players a year early? I want to bet against

Bill a year early. I want to bet Simmons or Belichick? Belichick. I want to bet against Phil Simmons. I want to bet against Belichick a year early. I think it's the opposite, though. The Patriots are incredible. I don't know.

I think the second you actually, the game starts, one Josh Allen turnover, everyone's going to be like, oh shit, it's Bill Belichick in the playoffs. Okay. Wait, I want to, Craig, you mentioned the Niners too. I'm curious why you want to bet on the Niners, because I have thoughts on this game, too. The Niners Cowboys, that's on Sunday, right?

Sunday Day. Okay, Bill's Patriots is the night Saturday game, which, ugh, and the Niners Cowboys, yes, Sunday at 430. Why do you want to bet on the Niners? So, Niners are kind of hot, right? Obviously, they just beat the Rams, but I mean, they beat the Bengals in OT a few weeks ago.

They lost the Titans by three. They've been playing good. Jimmy G's been playing good. They're kind of rounding in a form health-wise. Trent Williams is back. Debo's healthy and playing great. Kiddle's healthy and playing great. Eli Mitchell's back.

But also, one, this is a really cool game. Dallas and the Niners is like such a historic. It is such a throwback. So I got to get money on the game somehow. But, dude, Dallas, listen to Dallas's last five games. They beat Washington, who sucks. Then they beat the Giants. Then they beat Washington again, who was,

riddled by COVID. Then they lost to the Cardinals who had been floundering, and then they just beat the Eagles' backups. That's the Cowboys' last five games. And then before that, they lost three of five to Denver, Kansas City, and Vegas. I'm not, to be honest, convinced that Dallas is that good of a team. They lost Michael Gallup. Zeke is hobbled. I just think the Niners, getting plus odds for the Niners to win this game, I just like it. I like the coaching matchup. You're making good arguments. I would like to interject one thing. look right? The Cowboys finished number one in DVOA this year, number one.

Their last five weeks, yeah, they put in like 50 points against Washington and against the Eagles. Like, if you watch them play, DAC doesn't look right. Remember those games mid-season where they were putting up like nine points against KC and zero against Denver? Yeah, but their defense is really good, too, though. The defense is great. I wanted to ask you about this, though, DKK.

I lean toward what Craig's saying because in one hand, I think the Cowboys are as talented as any team in the NFL. The thing Craig didn't even say is Mike McCarthy's the coach. And like, as well as the Cowboys offense played early, as incredible as the Cowboys defense has been, I don't know many Cowboys fans who are like happy with what Mike McCarthy does managing games. Like Mike McCarthy isn't calling the offense and yet somehow he doesn't manage timeouts well. He doesn't seem like Cowboys fans are not confident in him.

And like part of me does wonder about, I'm curious what your ex is and those answers, DK. It's like how does the Cowboys defense match up against the, like the Niners because Kyle Shanahan is so good at what do you were saying it's like Shanahan because he worked on defensive side of the ball kind of understands the rules of defenses and how to break them. I'm curious what that means with like Trevon Diggs who is obviously as a ton of cornerbacks but it's a huge percentage gambler and like in a given one or two plays. I don't know. I'm kind of part of me does envision a world where like the Niners can

ball control, run game and then also get their big shot plays in, which actually the Cowboys haven't had a ton of big shot. I don't know. Do you kind of see, like, if the Cowboys lost this and Mike McCarthy got blamed, like, wouldn't that be the most classic Cowboys thing ever? Also, the Cowboys are 22nd in yards per play allowed. Like, it's not like they're not, it's not it's not like they're stopping you. Yeah, they just produce turnovers. Right. Exactly. They're so good up front. They're so explosive with their pass rush group and the way that they can deploy, you know, their different pass rushers, Marcus Lawrence, Randy Gregory. And then obviously Mike Parsons is like kind of a, he's a, you know,

Joker piece that they can kind of use wherever, like linebacker, pass rush, blitzer or whatever, he's so good. And then obviously, Trevon Diggs, he's been this interesting sort of contradiction because he's given up a ton of yards. He's given up a lot of touchdowns. But he's also, I think, leading the NFL in picks. A lot. Double-digit picks are a very long time.

Yeah. So to me, this is such an interesting matchup because, number one, like, what's the first thing you think of when you think of Jim McIgaropolo? like boneheaded stupid turnovers. I know that he doesn't necessarily deserve that because he has been pretty good. And like what he did last week in the second half and in overtime, he was amazing.

But it also masked like an atrocious interception he threw in the first half. He still got a broken thumb. They're still dealing with that, dealing with that. They also have a long history of Jimmy G just making terrible throat. Like it's one of those things where he, you know, go up the stairs.

down the elevator because he puts together like some really good plays really good plays really good plays and then bam back breaking pick. Is there a hot take where the broken thumb is a good thing or the thumb injuries a good thing because he won't try to do the dumb stuff usually does? Possibly, possibly. No, I do think this is a, I think that a couple games this week and I have like a really hard time with and this is one of them because I could like the Niners having very little confidence in their quarterback is bad, right?

And if you actually look, there's actually a pretty competent quarterback play for the wild card round compared to usually. There's no Mitchell Trubisky this year. Garoppolo is one of the less confident quarterbacks. But the flip side, I don't know. I guess I'm intrigued about exactly what Craig's saying, where cowboys have dominated bad teams in the last month, which is what you want to see.

But I don't know. I just kind of do wonder is the Niners run game and like what they have with Debo Samuel in the backfield and their kind of attack, isn't it kind of designed to mitigate a lot of what the Cowboys do well on defense? Sort of. Like, you still have Jimmy G. back there is the problem. But yes, I understand what you're saying. I don't, Craig, you're the one who brought this up.

Do you really want to bet on Jimmy Garoppel and Wild Card Round? Like, do you really, at the end of the day, when Jimmy Garoppola is there and he's struggling and they're down to 10 and Michael Parsons is hounding him and Trevon Diggs his pick six to him, are you going to feel good about this? You're going to feel good about betting on Jimmy Garoplo. Jimmy G was a foot and a half away from being the Chiefs in the Super Bowl, and I bet you we speak about him very differently. I'm totally out, though, because Craig just had to go back to that.

And that's how I know Craig is changing his mind. That's weak. I'm not changing my mind. Here's why I'm not. I drafted every Dallas Cowboy this year in fantasy and they all disappointed me. Every week I watch this team hoping. Which ones are going to be this week?

Zeke, CD, Gallup, it was none of them. Every week. They always disappointed. And the Niners, I'm picking up random dudes like Eli Mitchell and he's a top 10 running back. I think the Niners are better. Also, this is Kyle Shanahan versus Dan Quinn. Reuniting.

Oh, wow, yeah, doesn't even think of that. Yeah, the foul. Falcons coaches. The Falcons coaches. At the end of the day, Craig, I definitely understand where you're coming from. Like, you present intriguing arguments to me. I do want to reiterate, the Cowboys are not only number one in DVOA. They're number one in weighted DVOA, which accounts for recent play.

It's because they're playing a bunch of shitty teams. They're efficient. I will say DVA doesn't know that. DVO accounts for opponents. But it does not know that the Eagles bench their starters when they gave up the 40 whatever points, but still, I understand what you're saying. Who was the guy starting for Washington when they won by 50? Can we even remember?

Heineke? No, Heineke was out. I don't even remember. Exactly. It doesn't really know how bad Jake Fromm was, and it doesn't really know how bad Mike Lennon was the Giants. But regardless. Can we not move on until we think of the quarterback

who started for Washington that game? It was, okay, yeah. Garrett Gilbert? The Washington, no, no. Is that a thing? Is that a person? Kyle Allen. No, he was her too.

He was out, too. It was a third guy. Oh, my God. Do we actually truly have to guess? Do you want me to look at it? No, no, no, don't look at it. by Craig's right I want to figure this out don't tell me

what week was this 14 it was three games ago two games ago man this is really hard it's got to be Kyle Allen no it wasn't Kyle Allen he for sure didn't play

all right I'm looking it up it's Taylor Heineke what are you guys talking about are you looking at the first time they played three weeks apart twice Dallas oh yes sorry I'm looking at December 12th you're right incorrect

however he's played in the other game too. When they won 56 to 14, Taylor Hineke, he started. Oh. No, Craig's right. Garrett Gilbert did start a game for this team. Ah! Not in the Dallas game.

No, he started against the Eagles. What are you talking about it? You started the Eagles Week 15. Whatever. Garrett Gilbert, no. You said it. Garrett Gilbert started in Week 15. No, you're right.

All right. So, okay, congrats. Dallas beat Washington with Hanakeekekeyekee twice. Anyway, okay. So Craig kind of like won the battle and lost the war right there. Right. anyway, let's table the Niners for a second. I understand what you're saying, though, and it is compelling.

So ultimately, what do you want to bet on? We'll table this. I think we got a, we're going to circle back. I got a whole bunch of other things from the game I want to talk about. Do you have other Niners things or what other games you want to talk about? I have other Niners things. Do you want to focus on one of the other here? Hit the Niners.

Okay. Curious you other Niners thoughts. Well, the first question I wanted just to ask you guys, because we did talk about this extensively, is do you think this is going to be a defensive slug Fest or a shootout or somewhere in between I guess there is a gray area but where do you lean in terms of like stylistically what this game is

going to be because I think there's some juicy over-unders with Garapolo, Eli Mitchell and then I have a fun long shot that I want to talk about with Devo Samuel. Well Vegas was suggested it's going to be a shootout. It's the highest total of the week. It's 51. Yeah. Yeah.

So the one that I was looking at is Jimmy G and I know that I just said it's not a great matchup for him however, I think just the way this game could go, he's going to be forced to throw it a lot. And by the way, I just love his skill players. Like, his skill players are insanely good. Yeah.

So there's an over under 250.5 passing yards for Jimmy G. I thought that looked pretty good for the over. I know I said all that stuff about his thumb and everything. Yeah, I'm getting such mixed signals. He's a walking contradiction this episode. So you're basically saying that cowboys are going to get a lead and the Niners are going to have to throw, but you don't like the idea of the Niners actually.

winning. Correct. I think it's going to be a shootout. Would you just want the Cowboys giving three points? Would you prefer that? I mean, I think that's boring, but yeah, sure. Or what you can do on Fandals, you can move, you can, like, choose alternate lines, like you can move that game total down, and then parlay it with Dallas if you want to do that. But the point is, D.K., you think the Cowboys are going to win,

and you do think it's going to be a shootout. Like, you're saying, Jimmy's going to pass a lot, and then I imagine you're also saying that the Cowboys are going to throw a lot because the Niners' Secondary is pretty weak. I mean, yeah, the Cowboys are going to throw up. I think this is the game. game I'm the most excited for this week. It's gonna be really fun. You're in the Bay Area. Yeah, this is a throwback.

Okay, so here's why, here's why I picked the Jimmy G over under. He's gone over this number four out of his last five games. The one time he did not go over was against Atlanta when they blew him out and then they just didn't really ask him to pass that much. Yeah, but what if the Niners go full? Remember that thing they did last playoffs or two playoffs ago where Jimmy G threw it like eight times? I think it was the, was it the A?

Packers. Oh, yes. NFC, yeah, NFC championship or division around. Yeah, he threw it like eight times. They ran the ball the entire game, kept the ball out of Rogers' hands. I feel like that would be

what you want to do is you're like switching off between Eli Mitchell and Debo, short passes, like, burn the clock, keep the ball out of Dax's hands. That's what I'm wondering about. It's the Niners running game in this. That's why I'm a little surprised

to hear you talk about Garoppola's over. But I didn't know he really, he had hit that number. You said what, here's kind of, so again, like, I understand this sounds like a walking contradiction.

However, the skill players, Devo Samuel, Kittle, even Joanne Jennings. Ayuk. All incredible after the catch. Sorry, I even forgot about I. Juan Jennings had one good game. He's above a Yucke already. Well, I was thinking of the guys that are like going to freaking truck stick people when they try and tackle them. So you mentioned it like screen games, endarounds, things like that extension of the passing game, or sorry, extension of the run game, even though they are passes.

I think that's how you can get Garapolo to do. 250 because those guys are so good after the catch and Shanahan is always so good at scheming up guys with space to run. However, maybe we want to like put something together here with Eli Mitchell is over under 77 and a half rushing yards. He also has gone over this number of four out of last five games. His rush attempts in his last five games that he's played, 21, 21, 22, 27, 27. he is getting almost all the carries in that backfield, unless it's Debo Samuel back there. Like, Michael Hacey, he's not really a part of it.

Jeff Wilson's, like, gone. Not gone, but he's, like, not getting anything. So maybe there's a way we put together, like, if we do think this is going to be a shootout, Garapolo and Eli Mitchell. Well, if it's a shootout, you still think Mitchell would get over 80 yards and Garapolo it over 250 passing yards?

Yeah, because, like you said, this is maybe the letter skill players win the game. type performance here. I'm not going to lie, you're losing me there, and yet you've overall convinced me, which is really confusing to me. I understand why it sounds like I'm contradicted myself. What I'm saying is Grappolo is going to throw a lot of quick hitters

and they're going to run after the catch and pick up yards that way. Not like Garoppolo is going to take over the game. So you would take the under on Garapolo air yards. Yeah. The thing that I'm writing down from this that I think is the takeaway is that D.K. has been more convincing to me than Craig. I think Cowboys minus three of the Cowboys winning the game. but within that Jimmy G.

over or an Elijah Mitchell over. I like the idea of one of those. Did you also mention you a Debo Samuel thing? If you're getting wacky, go with both. Well, we can talk about both. But you mentioned a Debo Samuel thing too? Yeah, this one's stupid. This is the true dumb bet.

There's a bet on Fandul. I think it's one rushing touchdown and one receiving touchdown in the game. You get seven to one odds. That's horrible odds. He's done it twice this year. and he's Debo Samuel That's one in every eight games

More than that one every eight and a half Didn't he miss a few games? True, but they are playing like the Cowboys I know I'm just I said it was dumb I prefaced it was dumb he did say it was dumb It's fun I want to root for Debo Samuel And I want to root for Josh Allen That's the passion I like I'm writing that down

I like that's the passion I want I have a question for you guys Do you enjoy betting props Or betting like game total spreads Non-specific player bets What do you like betting the spreads more I think DK likes the props more I like the props because I think

It's too stressful for me They feel dumber I get so dumber to me So they're just like this is more for fun Than like me trying to be like Notatramas and figure out who's gonna win a game And by how many points like Instead you're just like I try to guess

Over under 77 and a half yards I feel like that's Nestradamus I like a spread because like all right If I bet the Niners to win the game Or money line like if I bet the Niners to win the game Like I don't give a shit what happens I don't care how they score like I kind of enjoy that.

Like they can block a punt, they can run it, I don't care. As long as they win. So here's my question. Doesn't it just make you sweat it out till the very end of the game too? Like, oh God, they're going to backdoor cover here. It's going to be so fucking annoying. Yeah, that's gambling, D.K.

That's gambling. That's how much. As opposed to props, which is what? A walk in the park. Prophs are just dumber, is my official take. Did we want to talk about Dika? Did you want to have more on the bills? So I mentioned Josh Allen under in the passing

because I think they're going to run a lot. And along those lines, I think Devin Singletary is going to get a chance to, like, go off in this game. Again, it's cold. It's going to be nine degrees. And although it does sound weird, the Patriots have actually not been very good against the run lately. They just got done giving up 153 yards rushing to, sorry, they've given up 153 yards rushing over the last four games average. They just gave up 157 to Dolphins, Duke Johnson and Philip Lindsay combined for that much. Singletary did only pick up 39 yards last time they played.

What's the number though? What single tarry's number right now is 59.5. I like that. That's a good one. His average in the last four games is 19 attempts and 81 yards. You like over 16 and a half rushes? No, I said over 59 and a half rushing yards. Oh, 59 and a half rushing yards.

That's interesting. Okay. We'll come back. We're going to circle back. Do you guys have anything else in these other games? Yeah, I have one massive thing I need to talk about. Okay, let's get it off your chest, Craig. I'm betting, it's already decided.

I'm betting the cheese minus 13. All right. Is this emotional hedging, or you just angry at your team or what? It's not emotional hedging. This game happened three weeks ago, and they lost 36 to 10, and Travis Kelsey didn't even play in that game. Like, what are we doing here? That's a good point.

We got to bet something on. on Rothensberger, right? Are there anything? I didn't even see anything out there with him. Dude, since? First of all, did you guys see Ben's quote talking about this game? Oh, this was ridiculous.

Okay, I saw the quote in text on Twitter and I was like, oh, this must be a joke. And then I saw a video of it. And it was like a real Ben-Rothsburger press conference and I'm like, okay, he must have been joking. I pull up the full press conference because I'm like sure there's some context I'm missing. And I'm like, it's still ridiculous.

And I'm like, maybe this is a deep fake. Well, what's the code? didn't see it. Oh my, can we, we have to play it. I have it. He goes, we're probably 20 point underdogs and we're going to the number one team. I know they're not the number one seed, but they've won the AFC the last two years, arguably the best team in football. We don't have a chance. So let's just go in and have fun. I must have been joking. But like, it's not, he doesn't say it's sarcastic. Like he's kind of like, like he's, um, it's dry. It's very dry. I have a friend who doesn't get sarcasm, no matter how obviously you make it. And that was

how I thought of Rothersberger in this moment. Like, he was just like, yeah, we don't have a chance. And I think in his head he was like, ah, this is funny. But it just came out like, yeah, we don't have a chance. We're going to have fun. And I'm like, you're the playoffs, dude. The Steelers, guys, since Thanksgiving,

the Steelers have averaged 18 points a game. That's twice what the Giants averaged. On the road, it's 16 points per game, which is only better than the Jags and the Texans. And they're playing the Chiefs. They're playing the Chiefs who've given up 19 points a game since Thanksgiving. I think the only. The only thing I can say for the Steelers is that they have a bad run day and the Chiefs can exploit that.

Having said that, like, I don't, Rathlisberger has to be the worst quarterback in this round, right? Like, even Jalen Hertz is a different guy. Like, I think Jalen Hertz is probably better. Like, Rathesberger is so useless. I mean, it's not close. So, like, I actually think this is a good call. I think my only thing with the Chiefs is, what is it's, it's minus 13. Yeah.

I, I, I, or 12 and a half right now, Fandlesport. I'm bored. I have to bring that down to five, right? You want to talk about a worst bet a worst bet a week? Can I bet minus 13 just for the first half? What odds can I get on that? Dude, 14-0 at the end of the first half is extremely likely.

The first half line is the chiefs are 4 to 1 to win it. What's the line? Minus 7.5. The overrunners 20, oh, 7 and a half. I think... I might take that too. The only thing I'll say, I found this crazy stat. What is it? There's been 18 wildcard games that the last four years.

and 15 of them have covered. Like the underdog is covered 15 of the last 18 wilds. So like that's my only concern with a lot of these. If you guys weren't going to let me do this, my second bet, which is probably going to be the most teased bet this week is just Chief's Bucks tease. I think that is going to be the most.

Okay, that leads me to my other thing with the Bucks. I'm going to be watching this Eagles game with two Eagles fans. And I kind of just want a way to put money on the Eagles. Oh, you want to bet on the Eagles? I want, I do because at eight and a half, it's so easily teases with six points for the two-team teaser

you can put that to 14 and a half quick explanation in teasers because no one ever explains gambling things if you just combine two teams you get six points to move each line and you have to win both bets but they kind of also take attacks for letting you do that

but eight and a half points I kind of liked Eagles getting 14 and a half like that's kind of like the perfect number because I don't think the bucks are going to blow them out Craig's making a face like you don't like that do you guys know what the Eagles record is this year versus playoff teams? They have like no wins

I'm aware of that. Yikes. This is against Tom Brady in Tampa. I mean, honestly, I haven't, I don't mind that. If you can hit 14, that's nice, right? 14 is nice. And also, like, I actually think the Eagles are going to be able to run on the bucks, honestly.

Like, Vita Vaya is, like, a monster on the D-line. But, like, the other, like, the run-dey isn't as good as it's seen. They're kind of a coasting as good as late. And I don't know if Levante David is going to play in this game. That's the thing. The bucks are so hurt, and, like, the guys might come back, but, like, that doesn't mean they're fully healthy. and I just think the Eagles actually excel

at something the bucks is struggling with right now and I think if you want to do props I actually think gronk all the overs will probably hit it's hard to bet on gronk overs you don't get any like juice like to get a touchdown and he's like

you know one to one which is terrible odds but like the Eagles defense in the middle probably will be carved up by gronk but like I don't know like Cyril Grayson and Mike Evans against Darius Slay and them in the outside like I kind of I put it this way I'm going to be watching

a two Eagles fan so I'm going to be betting on the eagle's because it will be fun. I'm not betting against my friends. That's a good, like, friendly betting strategy. You put money on your friend's teams, you have a good time. I'm not going to bet against them. That's the thing.

So that's my only thing I'm really asking is I don't want to bet on, I don't want to bet against the Eagles this week. I got a good one for you. Or maybe, you can tell me. Fanduel has a bunch of weekly specials for the wild card weekend,

which are really fun, I think. One of them is Jalen Hertz to throw one plus touchdown and rush, so one touchdown and one rushing touchdown. And it's plus 250. That's not too bad. I think that all... I kind of like that one. You know what those bets, though, are like...

And look, Love Fandle. Fandle's a sponsor this pod. We got the Fandle listener league. Love Fandle. Having said that, what I'll just say is that those special bets... You know when you're in the supermarket and there's like the display

right at the end of the aisle? I'm falling for it, hyphen. And it's like, it's more expensive because they paid to put it in front of your eyes and they're hoping that they can charge more money for... It's like... If they make the beer... Shove it to the front of the page

to give it to you, it's probably not the best odds. They make like a big display of beer that looks like a giant thing of, it's like a field goal, the uprights and stuff, something like that. Someone had to make that.

That's what I'm saying. What do you call that thing? The field goal uprights? The goal posts? The goal posts. The ones that you move to explain what Jimmy G. I was definitely trying to find that word. Could not find that word.

Okay. Craig, I have another one while we're talking, before we move on. Don't tell me to Steelers back. Chiefs to win every quarter against the Steelers. six to one. That's a good bet.

Six to one. That's one of the other fan. The problem though is if they tie. Yeah, I know what it's fun. In a quarter. That helps Craig get his visceral anger at his team. Better go to the Steelers' futility.

Let me quickly, I want to go look at this, I want to look at the past game they played and see if that happened. Because I believe after the first quarter, it was 14-0. It was. So the Chiefs won three out of four quarters. They lost the fourth seven.

to six. That's the problem. If it's like you expect, though, the Steelers will win the fourth quarter. That's the problem with that bet, but it's funny. You might as well bet the first half, though.

The first half, the chief's winning by the first half by a touchdown seems way better. Well, it's seven and a half. So they gotta be about 10. Oh, yeah. Oh, still, whatever. You better go double-digit lead.

It's fine. They'll get it. It was 23-0 at half the last time they played. 14-0 after the first. I mean, I don't know what we're doing here. Every time I'm like,

oh, well, Mike, Tom. No, this team. team is, I don't know what we're doing here. You're right that the, I think Craig's convincing me that the chiefs are even with the 13 points are great, even though it is the obvious bet of the weekend. All right. Other, let me give you a couple of my, I told you about the Eagles and honestly, I don't have a ton of rationale.

Like, I'm going to actively talk myself into it because it'll be fun. An actual take I have. So when I look at these wild card weekend, I'm like, well, who do I want to root for? Like, what games jumps out at me? Just screams Bengals. Everything in me screams Cincinnati. Like, Burrow, ice in his veins. you have Jamar Chase, T. Higgins, Tyler Boyd.

Raiders, letdown game, emotional letdown, short week. Tie, and I'm like, everything in me is like, I want him for the Bengals. And I'm like, this is obvious. George Costanza. Do the opposite. It's about the Raiders. Like, this is the game that everyone, no one will expect every Wildcore weekend. There's a game that you're like, oh, can't believe that happened.

We are stuck in this specific moment in time where we are transfixed with these two incredible games that Joe Burrow and Jemar Chase just had. We're all on the Bengals now. No one cares about the Raiders. We're focused on other things. No one gives a shit about the Vegas Raiders. And in reality, the Raiders have a pass rush, which the Bengals haven't had to deal with for the last few weeks. The Bengals don't block

well. Max Crosby hits Burrough for the third time in the first half. People are going to be like, oh, right. The Bengals don't have a great offensive line. And as much as I don't want to bet against Burrow, I don't really want to bet on Cincinnati's offensive line against the Raiders D line. And I kind of, I kind of think the Raiders getting

like six points is like a really good value this week. Did you know that Max Crosby finished with 101 pressures this year, which was more than any other player, including Aaron Donald? Isn't he the first guy to like significantly have more pressures than Aaron Donald in like five years basically? I mean, I don't know off the top of my head, but probably. Yeah. But yeah, he's incredible. Yonnik and Gakway is, I mean, we'll see, he's kind of tailed off. But like, I just think you saw it against the charges, right? Like Max Crosby. is like, dude,

he was dominating. Storm Norton. Yes, but like the Bengals don't have a great offensive line either. So I'm curious what you guys think about that.

Like, I think the Raiders money line, let me pull it up. So the Raiders money line, I just think that this is a much closer game. I think that this line should be like the Bengals giving two and a half. And it's already down from six to five and a half

that probably means smart people like the Warren Sharps of the world are like betting on it. But like, I just look at this. You can get two to one basically if you bet on the Raiders to win. I think five and a half points is a lot for a team that as weird as the Raiders are, like Derrickard can move the ball.

Like, it's going to be competitive toward the end, don't you feel like it? Wouldn't you be surprised that this was double-ditching game? I think you hit the nail on the head. This is the perfect, this is the Costanza bed of the week. This is the chicken salad.

Go against everything we want to bet. Every instinct. Yeah. Can we explain the Costanza thing? What was the last thing we explained it? So on episode of Seinfeld, they're at the diner and George is just so downtrodden about his life and decides to actually,

he says every decision he's ever made in his life has been wrong. So he decides to do the opposite. Every choice he makes right on is the opposite of his instinct. So at the diner, he typically orders like tuna salad on-ride with a cup of coffee so that he does chicken salad on sourdough and a cup of tea. And then he goes up to the beautiful woman at the county. He's like, I'm depressed. I have no job. I have no hair. My parents think I'm a failure. And she's like, call me. My name is George. I have no job. I live with my parents. Everything is coming up. Coming up George. This is the Costanza. Benegger against Joe Burrow. Because when the Bengals lose, everyone's going

be like, what? But like, it's kind of sitting right there. Like, they had this game against the Ravens. The Ravens don't have a pass rusher like Crosby. They have to blitz to get pressure. And then they went and they did this against the Chiefs, which similarly, they have Chris Jones and guys, but like the Chiefs don't have that like edge rusher.

The Raiders blitz less than any other team in the NFL. And they actually can get pressure with four fairly effectively, which I think is going to be a problem for the Bengals. Here's something. Okay, so I think this is very intriguing because my instinct. I like this one immediately was like, let's bet the over on Joe Burrow because he's just locked in ice in his veins. We love him. Joey B.

He called his receiver's freak shows, which is hilarious. He goes, because someone asked him about the balance between run and pass and how they've done it throughout the year because obviously the last few games that Burrough started, they were very pass-heavy relative to what they were earlier in the season. He's thrown for like 971 yards and two games. He's like, and he said something like, well, yeah, they got to worry about a run game, but that or something like to the effect of like they got to worry about both the run game and the freak shows we have running downfield which I'm just like that's classic burrow um I would do all the unders on burrow if for no other reason I've said then everyone's going to bet on the overs for burrow and like I know again unders win more because they're not fun but like if you want to win burrow with the 900 yards everyone knows he's had to go to couple weeks I actually think the burrow unders would get the last time these two teams played for the record and again this isn't a while ago, so things have changed since the beginning of the season, but this was in week 11.

Burrow threw the ball. Hold on. Let me pull it up here. He threw the ball 29 times for 148 yards. Yeah, dude, I'm telling you. Joe Mixon ran 30 times. By the way, Joe Mixon's over under on carries is 19 and a half. I kind of feel like, how do you beat a pass rush that's just freaking getting after your

quarterback? You run on them. That's a good take, too, of just like hitting the mixing overs. and then, like, getting Burrow under. It's pretty good. I also think this, I think the Bengals are, if the Bengals lose,

I think it'll be, like, the most emotionally draining loss for, like, football fans of the weekend, right? Like, everybody wants Borough to win this game. If you look at every other, the game,

I feel like there's not that much emotion or connection to any other specific guy. Like, Burrow is, like, America's guy right now. Yeah, he's the only guy that's, like, an underdog, like, all the other guys are, like, Mahomes and Brady.

Yeah, like, so fading that and Kostanzanzing, Raiders bangles. It sucks. I don't want to bet against Burrow, but I'm kind of down. Okay, so let's, so those are off. Do you have any other games you guys want to talk about? Because if not, we're going to circle back and actually make our bets here. I'm glad, can I just point out, I'm glad we didn't talk about Cardinals Rams. That was on the untouchables list for me. Just, I'm not. Oh my God, yeah. The Cardinals Rams is beyond.

I want nothing to do with that game. Shameless plug, I wrote about Andrew Whitworth for the Rams this week for the ringer. Go check it out. He's 40 years old. He's the second old's player in the NFL. It's a cool story of like you know a lot about Brady but like you're a left tackle in the trenches and you're still 40 years old and he's like the number one pass blocking left tackle on pf which is pretty crazy having said that i have no idea what to do with this game because matt stafford has seven picks in his last two games quite frankly this is like one of the bigger games of matt stafford's life probably number one probably if you get me drunk enough you could convince

me kail murray's actually been in more big games than matt stafford has which was probably not true but feels true like i'm talking about kailer murray who played like three texas state championships and stuff and like been in the college football playoff in Oklahoma. I don't know. Like I just kind of look at Stafford and like there's so much pressure on this team. Stafford has been so bad in every like huge clutch moment. I just kind of, I'm very curious to see him, but I can't look at this team with confidence right now. I'm very curious to see how Stafford plays.

And then there's the Cardinals who. I mean, just limping into the playoffs. Yeah, I have no, I have no like conviction. And they're super beat up. Edmonds and Connor are hurt. they obviously don't have Hopkins. Kyler's been really up and down. I'm just like, oh man.

I mean, didn't they just lose to the... If they put it this way, if those teams are playing other teams, they'd be famous. They lost those Seahawks. It's not that bad. It's pretty bad. Okay, all right.

We're going to go to the Beck's moot, which is a dumb name, D.K. and I came up with. You know, like, Game of Thrones, like the Kingsmoot? We're doing the Bettsmoot. Craig has no idea what this means. It doesn't remember the part of the In the Throx. I don't remember that.

He doesn't know it. But if you know, you know, it's like they do the Kings move, right? It's like the Iron Islands and they're like, all the Kings show up and I don't know. What is dead may never die, which we're doing a, we're doing a Batsmoot.

That's all I know. The Lions. The Lions. That's what the Cardinals lost to, D.K., not only they lose the Seahs and lost the Lions. We're even listening to anything I just said?

Well, once you said Bettsmoot, I tuned out. Do you really not remember the scene from Game of Thrones where they're like Kingsmoot and they all show up and that's where Yaron shows up or whatever? Okay, so I googled it because I'm a fucking nerd. A Kingsmoot is an ancient ceremony in iron-born tradition where the new king is selected to rule the islands following the death of a

previous king. So in other words, we're going to battle it out for which. I don't know what it means. The point is all the kings, anyone who wants to be king, like raise your hand. So we're doing this? It's like, raise your hand. That's what we're calling it. I can't. So we're doing a bet smoot. And it's like, I'm going to compile these. And it's like, if you want this bed in, we're going to do it. We're going to figure it out. Okay. You got to convince us. Things I've heard. The Iron Islands, iron Islanders. Things that have been thrown out there, we're going to try to figure how to combine a list. Craig wants the chiefs. I think that's where Craig's conviction is, like, the conviction Craig has says, I want to bet against the Steelers. Yeah. Because they suck and they've

caused you pain. I've also just watched them and I think it's a, it's a financially prudent choice. I desperately want to, I desperately want to bet on chiefs to win every quarter. Get you a bet who can do both. Okay. Chiefs given 13, maybe Chiefs to win halftime or whatever quarter wherever. D.K's like, I want to bet on Achilles, Josh Allen, but like in a weird way, doesn't really want to bet on the bills, but like wants to bet Josh. Basically, Josh Allen's rushing overs and Josh Allen's throwing unders and maybe Devin Singletary. Is that accurate, D.K?

Yeah, Josh Allen's throwing unders because I think he's going to run all over the yard. It's going to be a cold grind-out game. Yeah. So under 243 and a half. And then I like Singletary going over to $15. I want to bet on the Eagles just because I just will be watching the Eagles fans. And I would like to make that happen. Do we have to make these bets together?

Or is it like, I don't, no, no. I think we're going to piece them together in ways that makes sense. Okay. So I want to start by throwing. And then we have this weird Niners Cowboys situation, which we have not figured out. Yeah. I want to start by proposing the very obvious. And basically inverting, if the most obvious bet this week is everyone putting chiefs giving, teasing or parlaying, the chiefs and the buccaneers together, I want to flip it a little bit.

Two-team teaser, Chiefs giving seven to the Steelers, which isn't a great number, but whatever. because they're going to be a more of the touchdown. And then I actually wanted to do the Eagles giving 14 and a half. So it'd be Eagles giving 14 and a half. Getting 14 and a half. Sorry, yeah, Eagles getting 14 and a half against the bucks. Chiefs giving seven. I know you want to bet the Eagles,

but wouldn't it just be easier to tease the bucks down to minus two and a half and then like all the got is win by three? No, because then I'm rooting against the Eagles to win the game. DK, what do you feel more comfortable with? Bucks minus two and a half or Eagles plus 14 and a half? Okay, I already know from your face, you don't want to do it. I will do the Eagles thing alone. That's fair.

I'm the one watching. Fine, fine. How about this? How about this? Did I convince you? How about we do the Raiders getting 11.5 and the Chiefs giving seven? Which actually would already be, it's already done to 12 and a half for the Chiefs. So that would be a new math on ice.

Six and a half. Oh, that's better. If you six and a half. So a touchdown would now work, which is huge, actually. Okay. So to be clear, Raiders covering, what was it? Sorry, sorry. Let me get the Raiders getting 11 and a half

And then the Chief's giving six and a half Which is perfect because now if they win by seven And that's like a hundred bucks would win like 70 And 75 can we sprinkle in Chief's first half line Seven and a half line? Well I had a teaser. I don't think you can tease a full game with a first half line No, no I'm saying this is a separate bet

Just a little something else for us in that Chief Pittsburgh game I like that one a lot So are we down with this? Because we can have multiple list here I want to just list all these out So we're going to go with, I like this as number one. So Chiefs minus 6.5 and then Raiders plus 11. I like that bet a lot.

I like that one a lot too. And then I'm down to do the Chief's first half one. I don't want to do the all four quarters because it's like the Chiefs can win by 40. I know. It's not a very good. It's a dumb one. So the Chief's giving seven in the first half? Yeah, seven and a half.

Seven and a half, which sucks. I wish it was seven. That's such a bad. It's a terrible bit. I want to do it. You know what we need. We need to be like, you know how it's like, oh, a certain amount. of units. Like, oh, put like 10 units. We need a better word for that.

Well, yeah, for people who don't know, a unit essentially a percentage of your bank account. So somebody says put like one unit on something. It means one percent of your bank account or like the money you have ready to gamble. One percent of that money on something. So 10, 10 units, 10 percent, 20 units, 20 percent. And with love for everyone that we like in the space who does gambling work, all I'll say is that like most people don't have like a dedicated bank role to gambling that they hash out with percentages in units. I feel like quite frankly, if you actually deal with your betting in units, you probably don't listen to our podcast for advice. Right. Most people, people who are listening to us from the advice, throw 100 bucks into Fandle and then throw 20 on a game.

Wait, I just Google, because we do have to differentiate, though, my stupid Eagles bet to root my friends versus what we're doing here. So can we pick a synonym for unit? I'm doing, we're doing this live. Synonym for unit. I got component, section, constituent, subdivision. How about, how about Nugget? I like nuggets. One nugget. One nugget. A couple nuggets. A module?

Chop a nug on that. I kind of like subdivision portion. You don't think that's going to get a little more confusing? Three subdivisions? Subdivisions. Come on. No, we're not doing that. By the way, oh, Craig, I looked upon Fanduel.

I was looking on the wrong page. Chiefs six and a half first half spread. Oh, my God. So there you go. Oh, six and a half, then that's a fucking slam. We're going to triple the subdivisions. I'm putting 50 nuggets on that. 50 subdivisions.

Throwing a nug on there. It's officially a nugget. I like that a lot. Okay. How do we want to do this with... I already dread this. Just picture like we're gold prospectors. One nugget.

Just drop a little nugget on like the scale there. Speaking of gold nuggets, we got to figure out the Niners situation. Yeah, we do have to do the Niners. I... I just want the Niners. I know Hyfitz wants the Niners too. Who do you think is going to win the game?

You know, no, no. I've come to this. All right. I kind of want the Cowboys. Because if the Cowboys lose, I'll be thrilled. It'll be great for content professionally. I'll get to steal my Cowboys fans.

So you want to make it a win-win for you. Happy personally. Cannot lose if the Cowboys lose. That's such a great scenario. Or I should root against them losing, but I don't know. I don't want to bet on the 49ers beating the Cowboys. However, I'm willing, I would go and bet on the 49ers offense having like a good game. Like I was saying, like my Garapolo, Eli Mitchell.

I'd go on all of those. Do you want to stick with props in that, basically? You guys can definitely bet. do we all have to come to an agreement here? No, no, we can do our own thing. You guys talk it out with the Cowboys minus three. What do you think, Craig? What is a bet look like?

You're basically saying you want to stick with the Niners plus three, or do you want to partlet it with something on your T's? Or you want to just do Niners plus three, or a Niners money line, one and a half to one. You guys don't like anything about this Pat's Bills game, or maybe you want to go Pats, I want to leave bills. But if we're going to remove that, I think if we're going to do anything,

I just want to bet the Niners Money Line. Niners Money line. I just think they're going to win the game. I will go in a little on that I'm not as confident as like the Raiders one I'm not either but I do think that the Niners could win this game and I think it's pretty damn close to even in my mind so let's do Niners Money Line plus 140

and if you're going to do that then there's no reason not to parlay that with the Raiders because like if both those things win and those are both underdogs if that were to both happen I got it Niners Raiders be plus 605 6 to 1 so 6 to 1 Yeah, that's pretty good. So let's do that.

And we'll figure out the actual portions or subdivisions we're going to put on that. But 49ers and Raiders money line. Wow. My contribution to this game would be, I think I like the Eli Mitchell going over 77 and a half rushing yards. That one makes a lot of sense if we're saying the Niners going to win. Eli Mitchell's probably going to hit that if the Niners going to win,

the Niners are not going to win this game with Garoppolo, like having air it out, right? The only fear is that he's like banged up. He like has a knee thing. But yeah. Well, this is why it's probably smarter to two player props after the injury reports come out. Okay. All right.

Do we want to do anything with the Patriots' Bills game? You know what? Part of me is like, if the Bills win, are they really going to beat the Patriots by double digits? Are they going to blow the Patriots out in snow? I think it's going to be a close game. The flip side is like the Patriots teasing is also kind of intriguing of like putting the Patriots with Patriots

Raiders. That's right there. We could do Raiders 11 and a half, Patriots 10. two double digit digit teams we actually think can win, then they're both on Saturday, too. I don't know why, but I think the bills are going to win by a lot. Because the bills are really good.

It's weird, right? These are just two better teams than usually would be playing each other this weekend, it feels like. But at the end of the day, I'm like, is Bill Belichick going to get rocked? That's happened once in like, or once or twice in 10 years. When I look at,

so the last game, last time these two teams played, like Josh Allen was absolutely out of his mind good. And he almost, he almost there's there's a like a universe where they didn't win that game because he almost threw a pick to I think it was J.C. Jackson

and he dropped it. And then after that, Alan did his thing and like he ran for a fourth down conversion. He had like a crazy touchdown. He had a, I think he had a two point conversion too. Like he just like went off and it was like

this whole different like universe where if he threw that pick like the Pats actually win that game. And that was, with Josh Allen playing like perfect. And my contention that I started with here is that Alan is not going to be great as a passer, but he's just going to run all over the place. So my favorite one still here is Josh Allen under 243 and a half yards passing,

especially since it's going to be nine degrees. Is Josh Allen scored touchdown? Craig, is there, are the odds too bad? If we do Josh Allen score a touchdown, if it's plus 160, so basically like you put down a dollar, you would get back like $1.60. Is that bad? A rushing touchdown? It feels inevitable, doesn't it?

It does. Yeah. You know, let me just toss this out, toss this by it. I'm looking at the Patriots schedule. I know this is like really basic research, but like this is how, this is how you make a terrible bet, which is the goal of this show.

Here's who the Patriots have, in my mind, pretty much one good win this year. Mm-hmm. Here are the teams they've beaten this year. The Jets? In order. The Jets, the Texans, the Jets, the Chargers, the Pants.

The Panthers, the Browns, the Falcons, the Titans, that's the good win. They beat the Bills in a blizzard. That game means nothing to me. And they beat the Jags. Like when it was like 50 miles an hour or 50 miles an hour away. When they threw it three times. Like I know it's like a coaching cool thing that Belichick did that. But like those conditions are never going to happen again.

That doesn't tell me anything. They've literally, the Titans is their only good win this entire year. Maybe Chargers. I guess. And they also like the Cowboys, they lost the Cowboys, but that was an overtime. That was almost a tie. All right. But like, they've pretty much just beat up on Jets, Texans, Jags, Panthers, Browns, Falcons.

Like, that is the bulk of who they are. I've had one or two really actually, like, impressive games. And the bills are fucking good. I just, I get that. I just feel like the Patriots are not going to lose by double dishes. Like they did last time? The bills don't have a ton of big wins on their resume either, Craig. I was going to say the bills, Craig, by that metric that you just use, the problem,

the bills are actually worse. The bills have been the Chiefs. They beat the Chiefs, which is a good win. They beat the Saints. They beat New England. Okay, fine, they're better. I mean, they beat the Chiefs in New England. They lost to the Titans.

They lost to the Jags. Yeah, I don't know about that. They lost to the Colts. They lost. They did also lose to the Patriots, and they lost the Buccaneers. So here's the thing. I guess I'm basically being like, I look at it from this. Like, if you zoom out, again,

wildcard teams have covered 15 of 18 games in the last four years. The theme of this season has been parody. and like no great teams. And in doubt, I'm like, I kind of want the points and the greatest coach in like of our lifetimes. Especially if it's going to be nine degrees in snowing. Yeah. So if we can't agree.

All right. So Craig, if you were going to build a bills bet then, what would you want to do? Do you want to just take the bills giving four or do you want to parlay or you want to tease it to get the bills plus points and they just have to win or you want to just do a money line? I wanted, I wanted to pair Bill's money line with something else. Chief's money line. But what I really like to do is Niners bills.

That's what I wanted. But. Niners bills. Okay. That gives you a plus two 50. Early 90s. So you want the early night. Well,

I guess depending on the Cowboys in the early 90s. But okay. So that would be if you want the Niners, Bill's money line, that comes out to, why am I stuck in teasers? It's 250.

Plus 250. Plus 250. Okay. All right. Bills, Niners plus 250. This is a very, this is a complex Kingsmoot or Bet's moot.

Sorry. Yeah. What did we decide on? I'm throwing them all out there and we're all going to be like, oh, yeah, yeah. So, like, okay, D.K., if you're talking about, you're talking about betting with the Patriots, right, DK?

I want to bet. Are you really just talking with that theme? I want to bet Josh Allen underpassing. Yeah, okay. And that kind of goes with a theme and it allows me to, I don't care who wins kind of deal, but I just think he's going to run all over the place.

You're just a nihilist. That's what you like, he's averaged like 68 rushing yards or something like that over the last few games. He's like a 6 foot 5. 240-pound fullback. He runs like a gazelle. I want to see that.

I want to see him going crazy on fourth down with his legs. I think that my version of this is actually going to be what I said earlier. I think the Patriots getting 10 and the Raiders getting 11.5 as a teaser and then basically doing the same thing but in case they both win as like a money line parlay.

So like Raiders' paths each getting double digits. And then if they both win the games outright, then suddenly that would be like plus two and a half to one, which is actually better odds than what Craig's getting. How many things you put in the Raiders with? It feels like every bet you got is with Raiders plus a lot. I got, I got, I got, I guess two.

We got the Raiders chiefs one. And then I think the question is, and then also doing, we have the Bay Area Moneyline Parlay, which is Raiders and Niners. That's a good thing. And then the Raiders pass, which is a Saturday. No wonder Craig wants to bet on the Niners. Which is the Saturday game.

So I'm going all on of the Raiders this week. That's my like pivot thing. I'm in. You're Costanzaing it. Yeah. I'm Cassanzaing it. So that's my,

my, I'm doing the Costanza, I'm planting my flag on the Raiders, pirate style. Is anyone with me? Bettsmoop style. I'm with you on the Raider stuff.

I think it makes a lot of sense to Costanza this and go against America's darling, Joey B. I'm so sorry, Joe. Okay. Dika, are you in with us on that or no?

Sure. Yes. I'm in. Okay. Chief's first half line we like a lot. Oh yeah. Six and a half? Six and a half, baby.

Six and a half. I'll go in with Craig on the Niners' money line. I do want to root against the Cowboys now that I'm thinking about it. I'm not going to, but I'm going to do, I'll hedge and I'll take Eli Mitchell over 77. And a half. God, Jerry Jones's face if they lose is going to be so good. D.K. is also going more like Josh Allen under the passing yards. I'm not going on with Craig's Bill's Niners plus $250 parlay.

I am going to instead just, I'm going to do my radar. Patrick's, Saturday, Parley, and a money line tease. Okay. Can I throw out one more that I think is fun? The bets moot. The long, so one of the long shot specials from Fanduil, total points in Wildcard Weekend, the over under. Oh my God.

It's 289 total points. 2809. A half total points. I have no, I didn't do any research onto like where this is like what we should bet. I just think it's funny and that we should bet. Total points for the weekend. Here's the invisible the invisible value you're getting.

Ultimately, what you're buying there is the ability to root for every touchdown all the time and all points for ever drive. But now that they've put a game on Monday, you actually get an extra day of joy because you might win that bet with the Monday night scoring. So here's the take.

It's 289 and a half. If you average it out, that's 24.1 per team per game. There are, there's 12 games, there's 12 teams, right? Two teams on by. Yep. Okay.

So yes, 24.1 per team. Teams this year, by the way, average 23 points per game. So these are better than average teams. Last year, in Wild Card weekend, I did the math. Teams scored 303 points. That was boosted, I will say, by a 48-37 Browns win over Craig Steelers.

So that was a lot of points in one game. You completely lost me, but like, sure, I'll bet on the over for the game. I have no idea what you're talking about, but I'll do it. I'm looking at that. So if we're going to hit the over, we'd have to, teams would have to average more in 24 points per game. I love the under. Okay.

You love the under. Gotta do the under. What are we doing? I think the under makes more sense. The under is literally always the answer. You should never actually bet an over. Plus, like, with like, the cold weather in Buffalo. I don't know.

You should not really bet on the over. Steelers are going to score zero points. So it's really only 13 teams. Last call on the Bettsmoot. Does no one want to do anything with me for the Eagles Teased to 14 and a half? No one wants to bet against Tom Brady with me? No one?

I want to bet on Jalen Hertz. One touchdown and one touchdown. One passing touchdown and one rushing touchdown. I think the odds you're getting on that is disgustingly. I don't care. It's my personal opinion. D.K. doesn't care about your odds. DK. is like, ooh.

Never tell me the odds. Okay. All right. That's the official Bettsmoot. I think the thing we all agree on the most, though, is the Chiefs giving six and a half Raiders getting 11.5. Yeah, first half. First half.

Okay. Bet against Ben Rothesberger. That's the theme. Okay. Wow, that was our first best move. Incredible. Those are the worst picks of the week. Those are the worst picks for Wild Card Weekend, everyone. You are welcome. Unbelievable. They come to you for free. All right. We have a couple of emails here. I want to shout out. We just did a mailbag episode last week. And I think the most popular email we got by far was someone

asked like if you were a thief but you would only steal things to like mildly inconvenience the person you were robbing like who what would you steal and we had great answers Dalton emailed us to say when I would go to frat parties in college I'd sometimes hide some of the stuff in the house if the hosts were dicks and twice I collected their TV remotes and put them in the mailbox

wow that guy's asking for a beat down which reminded me of the John Mullaney bit which I can't believe we didn't come up was like when he was at high school and one of his like friends like born was house once and he had this like weird walk in closet sketchy room in his room and they opened the door and just lined wall to wall with like old family photos but like not of his family oh that's right and John Malaney's like what are you doing and he's like why would you steal these and he's like because it's the one thing you can't replace god

geez ridiculous okay I also want to shout out Jacob who emailed us Jacob is a Jacob recorded all of our showdown time trivia answers. Oh my gosh. From the entire season, who won the trivia? And then also kept track of who did the best with the player that they got. So not necessarily the guys recommended. So who gave the best advice based on who won the showdown? So he tracked the whole thing for us.

Honestly, better than we did ourselves. I could barely, I'm not even smart enough to understand that spreadsheet. I could hardly figure it out. So I think the key takeaway is that I won the most. most showdown times. By one. By one, but that's called winning, D.K. Be clear.

It's called victory. And I actually, he did have actually interesting things. So, like, I was the best of predicting, like, the immediate plug-and-let play spike weeks for running back some receivers. D.K. with the dynasty brain was the best that, like, past catchers across the whole season. Like, from the moment, D.K. recommended someone through the end of the year, his receivers and tight ends were, like, by far the best.

Nice. And then Craig was the best tight-end streamer by a lot, actually. Well, question, though. So, Havid, you got the most trivia question. right, but is that, is that, is the amount of questions you were asked accounted for? Because some people didn't receive as many trivia questions as others. You know what I mean? That I, I'm not going to, I'm probably normalized in the spreadsheet and it's like above my level.

Okay. But on the whole, and also it's like if we all were like, oh yeah, you should pick up Cordrell Patterson in week two. I think only one person got credit for that. So it's all a little. But like, honestly, the point is shout out Jacob for like incredible work. That was honestly like above and beyond. Yeah.

Like we all looked at that for a long time in disqual. disgust it. We were just like, whoa, we should have thought of this. So thank you for that. Okay. I think that's all we got. Emails at ringer fantasy football at gmail.com. If you're particularly inspired, we think, if you have any ideas for our bets moot or worst bets, please hit us up.

We're like, I think this is fun, but if you have any better ideas or if you take any of these bets, emails, we'll follow along. Thank you. Anything else? Craig, D. Ringer Fantasy Football League. Yeah, the ringer listener league on Fandwell. Fandul.com slash ringer listener league.

The link for that is in this episode description. Thank you, Craig. Thank you, D.K. Thank you to Yaron Greyjoy for the Betzmoot. Thank you for Kingsmoots in general, Giorgera Martin.

Thank you, Lauren. Thank you, Pixies. Nice. Have you done them before? Feel like you have. I don't know, maybe. I bet he's repeated. We need that guy.

Who is that guy who sent us that email? I don't. Shout out the other person who also kept track of all the bands, D-K has shout out. Another thing that we should be keeping track of and we have not. I apologize if that was the two-plicated. I think it was like Colby or something?

We could find the email. Cole sounds correct. Yeah, something's C-O-L Colby, Colson? Let me pull up his name. We can find that. He deserves it. This is really good. He did a great job.

Yeah. Pixies is nice. Hold on. We can figure it. Not that I listen to them at all, but I know that. Tyson. It was Tyson. Tyson.

That Tyson, not Colby. Shout out Tyson, who kept track of a ridiculous amount of... Did I use Pixies before? No, because he only kept track really until you, like, had not really got comfortable enough. When you were made. Yeah, when you were like, I'm actually going to share the bands I listen to instead of like the hey fellow kids. Instead of trying to fucking, like, relate to you, zoomers.

The first ones you did, just for the people who are listening who don't really know how Far Dike's come when he was just trying to relate to people. The original ones he did, Jay Z, Kanye, Katie Perry, Jesus. Piancee. This is what I think young kids listen to. It's just like the code. That's like a Coachella lineup. yeah he's got weezer they got taylor swift post malone

you said taylor swift like five times she's very popular he said katy perry yeah he said katy perry twice she's also popular yeah american popular song yeah do you ever feel like a plastic bag see a sunday

fifting through the wind katy perry yeah to start again What's like, what kind of line is that? Do you ever feel like a plastic bag floating through the wind, hoping to start again? Is that like an American, American Beauty reference? I don't know.

You know the plastic bag that he just videotaping? Oh, yeah. We're floating around. Plastic bags are the modern tumble beads. That's deep. That's better. Maybe Katie was ahead of her time.