The Ringer NFL Show - Week 1 Bets and the Bad QB League

Episode Date: September 10, 2021

We start by discussing the recent report that Ravens RB Gus Edwards tore his ACL and evaluate the Ravens’ banged-up backfield. Later in the episode we find out that the Ravens signed RB Devonta Freeman, and we debate whether you should add Freeman or Le’Veon Bell to your fantasy team. Then we get into our favorite player props to bet for Week 1, and finally we introduce the Bad QB League on FanDuel. RB Gus Edwards, Ravens (2:55) Week 1 Prop Bets (9:30) Bad QB League (36:58) RB Devonta Freeman signed by the Ravens (46:44) SIGN UP FOR THE BAD QB LEAGUE ON FANDUEL HERE w/ PROMO CODE: RINGERFANTASY Check out The Ringer’s 2021 Fantasy Football Draft Guide here. Email us at [e-mail]. Hosts: Danny Heifetz, Danny Kelly, and Craig Horlbeck Producer: Craig Horlbeck Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey everybody, this is Warren Sharp, NFL analyst over at Sharp Football Analysis. I want to welcome you to The Ringer Gambling Show. Join me on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays each week during the NFL season with guests Chris Vernon, Ben Solac, and Joe House to guide you through the NFL betting landscape. We'll be talking spreads, game totals, parlays, player props, futures, and much, much more. Be sure to follow the Ringer Gambling Show on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to the Ringer Fantasy Football Show. my name is Danny Heifitz. I am joined by Danny Kelly and Craig Horlebeck.

We are recording this on Thursday. Week 1 is about to begin. Bucks Cowboys, we will not be talking about that game because we don't know what happens yet. But a few things. We have freaking huge news. The bad quarterback league is back.

We mentioned this week. It's back. With the vengeance. It's on Fandul. You can play with us. If you have wanted to play in a league with us, you can do it now. Fandual.com

slash bad QB. It's dope. Yeah, back at Grantland, you know, they did it. Shouts out David Jacoby and Bill. Interceptions and fumbles are good. Touchdowns and yards are bad. It's the best league ever made. By the way, it's super cool that if you go to Fandall

and you just look at their side panel in the NBA or the NFL lobby, it's one of its own things. So there's like single game, full roster, blah, blah, blah, blah. Bad QB League. Yeah, so you can find it under game styles. You can just go to the URL, fandul.com slash bad QB. It's also the link to the link to the, The room is in this episode description.

So for this episode you're listening to, so you can find it a thousand ways. It's like three bucks to enter. And it's really simple. It's like, as Craig said, interceptions and fumbles are good. Touchdowns and completions and yards are bad. And you have to pick a quarterback from six tiers.

It's really simple. So like you can't just only have bad quarterbacks. Like Daniel Jones and like Andy Dalton are like the best guys, obviously, tier one. And then Josh, or Josh Allen and Patrick Holmes are like tier six guys. You just got to pick one quarterback from every tier. You can't pick more than one quarterback from you.

tier. It's really fun. We're going to be doing it every week so you can sign up at any point. If you do, our promo code for Fandle is Ringer Fantasy. So use that if you're signing up for Fandle for the first time. And yeah, you compete against us. There's only 10,000 spots. So once that fills up, it's filled up. So enjoy. It's exclusive. It's exclusive. Yeah, Bill's in it. A lot of the ringer people are in it. See if you're smarter than us at predicting who's going to suck. We're going to get to our picks for the bad quarterback league for this week later. We're also going to give a bunch of prop bets that we like for this week that hopefully give you guys an idea of who maybe you should be starting or sitting.

But instead of just giving you starts the advice, we're going to talk about players we like in the form of bets that we like. But first, holy crap, we have news. This just happened. We're recording this Thursday afternoon. Gus Edwards, Ravens running back, just tore his ACL this week. We just got word of it. Confirmed by Adam Schaefter. So J.K. Dobbins, the Ravens starting running back towards ACL two weeks ago. Justice Hill, the Ravens third string running back, tours Achilles a week ago. Now, Gus Edwards is a torn ACL.

That is all three of the top Ravens running backs all out for the season into 10-day span. D.K., what the fuck do we do now? Well, I think Tyson Williams is the main beneficiary here in the fantasy realm, and hopefully you already stashed him because I think he's probably not out there in a lot of leagues right now.

But if he is, definitely go pick him up because he is, I think, looking like, going to be the starter for the romewerexie. Ravens. And, you know, the Ravens are a team that can weather this kind of thing because their scheme manufactures efficiency from the running back position. I'm not saying that, you know, Tyson Williams isn't going to be as good as Jackie Dobbins. He's not going to be as good as Gus Everers either, even, probably. But there's still, I think, going to be efficient on the ground because of the things that Lamar Jackson does in terms of, you know, like his ability to run freezes the

guys on the outside. It helps create run lanes. It just changes the. math for the offense. So I think the run game is still going to be effective, still going to be relatively efficient, probably not as good, like I said, as it would have been if all these guys hadn't kind hurt. But this is a team whose scheme, much like I guess you say the 49ers, you probably can get by with quote unquote scrubs, guys off the street, guys that you probably hadn't heard of before.

So I'm definitely still very much in on Tyson Williams and starting him this week if you have him on your team, things like that. Past him, you know, we're looking. at Trenton Cannon, who they just signed. He's more of a special team. He's kind of like the Justice Hill guy in this equation. So I don't know for sure how many touches he's going to get. But Levi-on-Bell, back from the dead, he's another guy to keep in mind

because he was just signed to the Ravens Practice Squad this week. I'm guessing now, once he gets through all the, you know, I'm guessing to have like COVID protocols and things like that still to go through. But once he gets acclimated to the team, he's, I'm sure, going to get elevated to the to the active roster on game days and he's probably going to be the backup to Tyson Williams. I love that Levion is immediately relevant. And he's on the Ravens.

Revenge to her, baby. It's insane that Levion's relevant. I cannot believe we got to this point. I mean, how often do we talk about people doing their drafts like the Tuesday or Wednesday before the season so that you don't spend money on someone who's hurt before any games are played? Yeah.

We did a bunch of drafts left. I had two different drafts last. And then Gus Edwards still gets hurt the first day of the season. I got Tyson Williams in the ring of draft, by the way with one of my last picks. Thank goodness. Congratulations. Yeah.

Way to celebrate someone's injury. Not celebrating injuries. But how do you feel about that? Did you see that Marcus Peters tore his ACL on the next play at practice right out of the same play? What is going on? What is going on? They said back to back. Also, Marcus Peters had also referenced Gus, like, whose nickname is the bus as

Gus as like he will be on the bus. But like not. On the bus to the hospital. Well, the Ravens actually could get a bus. It would probably be cheaper if they just bust people to the hospital. On that note, I went through the IR, so I believe I have this right. But once Gus Edwards is on injured reserve, I believe there will only be 20 running backs in the entire NFL who are on injured reserve. And six of the 20 will be from the Ravens or Rams.

What the hell? That's bizarre. So you got to add Levion. Yeah, you got to add Levion, stash him just in case he ends up becoming the starter. Yeah, because we don't know for sure if Tyson Williams is like the answer for them. But Levion Bell's toast. I mean, is he, though? Maybe. Maybe.

I feel like if they envisioned Levion as anything, it's because Tyson Williams had very little experience. Gus Edwards is only two or three years in the league, and they're like, we need at least one veteran here. But like, is Levion Bill actually going to get reps? Like, I feel like they have to make some kind of traitor. Signed Todd Gurley. Yeah, but when you say they want one veteran there,

for what? Like, locker room vibes? Levion's not exactly the coolest dude in the world, it seems like, in the locker room. I don't know why. I don't think they need a veteran behind Gus Edwards and Tyson Williams just to like talk talk shop about the running back position. I imagine they envision him at least getting some time. Man.

Why would you bring up Todd Gurley at this point in time, Hyfitts? Because they need a free agent. Oh, oh, because you're upset because he's not signed anywhere and we have a large, a large wager. He plays football again. If the Ravens don't sign Todd Gurley, then I think I'm going to try out for the Raven. He's probably never getting signed anywhere, right? Here's the deal, Hypo, on a serious note, they did have him work out over at some point in the off season. I don't remember when it was, but they ended up signing Levyon Bell over him.

And honestly, I think Levy on Bell is probably in a position where he's more fresh and I guess more explosive at this point in his career. The other guy that you have to keep in mind here is Latavis Murray, who just got released from the Saints. It sounds like he wants to play for the Ravens. He's already mentioned it on the public record. So he could be another guy they add. So, you know, those are some potential ads if you're looking for help if you had Gus Edwards in your lineup already. So do we know anything about Tyson Williams? He's a guy.

Not a lot. He plays football. Here's one thing that's a little bit worrisome. He went undrafted in 2020 in large part because he missed most of his final season in college with a torn ACL. So just put that guy in bubble wrap, you know, and just be careful. There's obviously something, some bad, like voodoo happen. with this. It's like they've got, they've been cursed. Because they didn't sign talk early.

Maybe. He undrafted free agent out of BYU. He originally, he was a four-star recruit. He came out of South Carolina, went and started out South Carolina and then transferred to BYU. Pretty unremarkable college career when undrafted. He has looked good, I would say, in the preseason in terms of like, he's kind of like Gus Bus. He's very big physical, you know, run up the middle of the field, break tackles, bang into people, that kind of runner. I don't think he's much in the passing game,

but he could probably end up being like a low-end RB2 flex just because of the offense he's in now. I think he's startable in week one. Texan Williams is a startable player, if you're thinking about it, which is what a sentence. Here we are. Welcome to the NFL season, everyone.

Okay. Is this week 13? What happened? So crazy, yeah. Yeah, I know. It's going on. I don't know. They should trade for someone.

Who do you want him to trade for? 10 days to lose three running backs is absolutely absurd. All right, let's get to some prop bets. We're going to be doing this. every Friday. We're going to be going through a bunch of prop bets. You can find them on Fendell Sportsbook and we're going to try to make some money here. We're going to keep track.

We're going to give you three over-unders each week. We're going to try to track throughout the season. We're going to see who's going to win. If you have ideas for what the stakes to this should be, please email ringer Fantasy Football at gmail.com. We don't actually have stakes yet. Yeah, it can't be like monetary. It'll be like embarrass each other type things. Maybe something we can do on the podcast.

I don't know. Throw stuff out. Yeah, let me toss out one idea. So yeah, we're going to each do over-unders only and tell you each week. So I'm thinking each week, this is my initial idea, is the guy who gets dead last, the two people above him that week get to, like, write out a sentence or two that the other person has to read on air. And then maybe... This could go south quickly. And then maybe, you know, we can have, like, listeners email us for, like, what the end of the year punishment is or something like that. Again, nothing insane, nothing that'll get us fired. Or if you think of something

better weekly, that's appropriate, yet still tastefully funny. Yeah. Please send that in. It's a narrow scope. I wanted to do the Waffle House thing, and then D.K. gave me the look of, like, I have, like, a young child. I have a family. I'm not spending 24 hours in a Waffle House.

That's something you do before you have children? I'll pay you harder and American currency before I do that. Okay. So with all that said, Dika, give us a prop bet for this week that you like. All right. Oh, and might we add that we are actually putting money on these? This is not something where we give you our picks and then we don't actually place the best. We are placing money on

Fandu on these bets each week. So this is real, folks. Every week. Great note. On that note, my first one is Kyler Murray over 259.5 passing yards. Basically, it has hit 260 this week. I think he can do it. For starters, this is

the second highest. This is Cardinals versus Titans, two teams without much of a defense, especially without much of a past defense. This game has the second highest over under for the week, but only behind the Chiefs and the Browns. Neither team,

like I said, has any cornerbacks. There's going to be a lot of passing. I think there's going to be a lot of scoring. It's going to be back and forth. Looking back before Kyler suffered the injury,

the shoulder injury that he, you know, that kind of had his performance fall off in the second half of season. So basically through 10 weeks last year, he hit the over, this over, six out of 10 games last year. Now,

that was in context. That was in a season without much of a preseason. Dandre Hopkins, who they just acquired, was just getting his feet wet in this offense. Basically, no one else really stepped up in that offense. Now he has a guy like Rondell Moore,

A.J. Green. I know that A.J. Green looked terrible last year, but everything we've heard so far is that he looks like the old, the A.J. Green of old. So we'll see if that actually happens. In theory, basically what I'm saying is I think this offense has a potential to potentially make a jump. Potential to potentially make a jump. I know I said that twice. But I don't know. It's a lot of potential. I'm just looking at this and I'm saying week one,

defenses are going to, I think, have to catch up with offenses here to start the season. And I think Kyra Marie just has the, you know, he's just going to go off in this game and pass for like 300 plus yards. So hitting the over. Let me piggyback in here with mine. I think I'm taking Kyler over 42 and a half rushing yards. All offense. All offense, baby. He did this seven out of ten times last year.

And those ten times, I mean, before he hurt his shoulder, he ran for over 42 yards. Seven of those ten games or he was healthy. Like you said, yeah, this is a. the second highest total, point total the week. Both these teams run a million plays, and both these teams' defenses suck. I don't, here's what I don't buy this year. Everyone's like, I feel like the common narrative is like,

Kyler's not going to run as much. There was that one quote. Yeah, got everyone. Kyler, Kyler said it. He like, he like intimated. He like intimated that he wanted the offense to be more balanced and efficient and they don't want to have to rely on him running.

That is horseshit. He's like the best running quarterback in the league. This dude's going to be scrambling all over the place. 42 seems low in game one when they're going to be putting up 55 points total in this game. I'm happy to taking the over on 42 and a half. So if you guys combine those, because you can same game parlay both those on Fandall, so that actually becomes more than two and a half to one,

if both those things hit the over and the rushing yards. That's a fun one. What is it 50 rushing and 270 passing? It's 42 and a half, yeah. Okay. Two and a half to one if you hit both. Do you think both are possible or it's kind of one or the other? Absolutely.

I think both are possible. I put, The only reason I would push back a little bit on Craig on yours is that Titans don't have much of a pass rush, or at least not that we've seen really. And a lot of Murray's rushing yardage last year was on scrambles. Like, he's an incredible scrambler. So if he doesn't get out and scramble a lot in this game, he may not hit that over, but I could still see it happening absolutely just because...

I just think it takes three scrambles for him to get to 42 yards. Totally. I mean, like, if he has three scrambles and two designed runs, he hits it. Have you guys seen the video that has Kyler Murray scrambling, but there's a soccer announcer doing the over, like during the announcing or whatever, and he just starts mimicking a motorcycle like, bannam! Yes. It's like I can't watch Kyler play without that sound effect in my head, because he just looks like a freaking Dakotty out there. He's just so fast. I'm so torn about all these overs, because on one hand, the way to win.

is like usually just to take unders. Right. Because people get injured. Yeah. Well, no, no. It's just like also they know who bets unders? What kind of person bets the under in life? Like you bet overs to root for shit. No one, like unless you're playing against the team like you take the Kyler Murray over passing yards.

Who bets against Kyler Murray to get under 40 rushing yards? So they have to artificially set them higher than they really are just to normalize the both sides of the bet. So generally if you take unders, they're a better. value, but then you're like rooting for Kyler Murray to not scramble, which is like a not a good way to live life. But the flip side is then in week one, offense is like always now going to have an advantage in his first couple weeks of the season with all this last practice time. So I'm like so torn here on the overs. I'm just looking through our list. We got a lot of overs. So, but that's fine. It's like, do you really have under life? Like life is too short to

bet the under, man. Okay. Yeah. All right. Mine's not as cool as yours. I, I'll start with a cooler one. I was going to talk about Miles Gaskin. We'll get them later. I'll just, while you guys are car, I'll talk about my cool, but I think Patrick Holmes

over 313 passing yards. I'm already going to go off the jump that like this number is very high. Like this number is very high. Because Patrick Holmes can throw five touchdowns and not hit 313 yards. Having said that, Patrick Mahomes might just go down

as the best player in the history of the NFL in September. He has 32 touchdowns and zero interceptions in the month of September. Like, Like that's fucking crazy. He also was averaging 330 yards a game in September. Didn't they run it like 35 times week one last year though?

Are you all worried that's going to happen? And they're playing a team in the Browns who also run the ball at home? That's the thing. So like I think my concern here, if Fandall were to put up a prop over the weekend where it was passing touchdowns, I would hit that over in Patrick Mahomes for sure. But Patrick Mahomes is like the most exciting player in week one every single year. and just the, like, I think my question, you guys, is do you think the Browns can keep it a game?

Because if the Browns are not keeping it up, then I think it's not going to happen. But if the Browns are going back and forth with Mahomes, I think Mahomes just actually explodes. See, that's actually a good reason for betting the overs. Because I do think the Browns have the firepower to keep it close because they have, you know, they have the balance to get first downs

and get like good down to distance on third downs with their running backs. But then also I think, you know, with Odell coming back, it sounds like he's looking spectacular. killer in the preseason. Jarvis Landry, Donovan People's Jones has gotten a lot of hype in the preseason. Maybe they have more like offensive firepower passing firepower than we think.

And obviously, going back to last year, Baker Mayfield finished the season on an absolute tear. So maybe we're just kind of forgetting about him a little bit. But I definitely would take the under, but I can see where you're coming from on this. And I kind of like it. Well, if Warren Sharp is like sharp here, this is the dullest better. I can recommend is Patrick Holmes over. I understand that they have to raise that by 30 yards to even get it.

However, realistically, I think it's like, don't put a lot on it, but like, you do want to be rooting for Patrick Jones a week one. Speaking of this, I've got a Patrick Holmes. This has big, what is betting energy? This has big, like, just logged on to a sports book energy. But yay, maybe it'll hit.

This is, yeah. I'm being transparent. Yeah, yeah. Thinking outside the box here, Hyford. Well, I'm much more excited about my Miles Gaskin one, but I felt like you guys started with Kyler Murray. I got Mao Gaskin over 50 yards rushing, too. I think that's a cinch, but that's not as cool.

Okay. We're trying to make money, not be cool, Danny. I got, I have a Patrick Mahomes one that we might as well do while we're talking about Mahomes. Patrick Mahomes over 14 and a half rushing yards. And so, first of all, this is like one or two scrambles. I think this is going to happen because, number one, Mahomes is just that guy who's going to, like, keep plays alive, you know what I mean?

Like reverse the field, scramble. roll out, do whatever. It's not going to be on a lot of design runs, but he hit the over on this, 10 out of 15 full games last year, based on this number. And the chiefs have a whole new offensive line. I think it's going to take them a minute,

even if they are, even if they have impressed in the preseason, and they're feeling very confident about it. It might take it like a couple of series for them to like figure everything out, especially against a Brown's defensive line that looks really, really solid coming at this game. I mean, obviously they have Miles Garrett. They signed

Ja-David and Clowny. I could just see Mahomes having to run a little bit in this game, especially early on as they settle in. And so, I don't know, this one is the antithesis, I guess, to Haifitz's one, because it's not exciting whatsoever. But 14 and a half doesn't feel like that much. Mahomes is really good at scrambling, and he has some, like, some of the best plays of his careers are scrambles and, like, long runs. And yet, I think he's the least athletic looking

runner I've ever seen for someone who's like good at it. Yeah. Yeah. He just doesn't like he covers ground, but he just doesn't look fast. Well, he's kind of lumbering. He has an odd way of running. He kind of like waddles. He kind of like shuffles. Yeah, and waddles forward. He's got the head tilted to the side. He's kind of an interesting guy. It's kind of like all the stuff we hear about him as a pitcher. He looks like a pitcher trying to get to a ground ball. Like I don't do this all the time, but oh, I, so I'm going to be watching, I'm going to be watching my homes. I'm like, I'm going to be yelling for him to tuck and run. It's probably a sharp. bet them I over the passing yards, but mine's more fun.

Fair enough. All right. Tell us about Gaskin. Why is, why are gascon? Okay. I understand that the Mahomes bet's probably kind of stupid. The Gaskin, what I believe this one, over 49 and a half rushing yards. I just think Miles Gaskin is the guy in Miami and that this is a line that's like pretty

low because for all we've talked about two and stuff, I have been expecting Miami to bring in another running back to compete. They really haven't. Malcolm Brown and like Salvin, like they don't have a ton of guys in that back. think that is a huge sign of confidence that they really liked Miles Gaskin's training camp. And they've kind of talked about him being the three-man back. Flores has alluded to it, the head coach in Miami. I mean, I think that for a team that maybe establishing the run isn't like the best way to win football games, but I do think the dolphins don't want to give up the running game.

Like 50 yards, this matchup against New England's not awesome. But it's kind of a low bar for a game that is, I highly doubt the Patriots are going to run away with this. I just feel like Miles Gaskin's going to get a lot of carries. there's no reason to expect they won't be able to run in all four quarters. It's not like the game script will get away from them. Like, it just kind of seems too good to be true. Yeah, I mean, a starting running back over 50 yards is usually like a solid bet, kind of regardless of the matchup.

Yeah. Yeah, because my first thought in this was, ooh, you're going against the Patriots. Like, their front seven looked absolutely freaking dominant in the preseason. That doesn't mean anything of anything, of course. But like, yeah, but they looked good. They were flying around. You know, they have good players. Matthew Judon looks like the.

truth. But at the same time, at the same time, they're going up against a rookie quarterback. So I could see a guy like Brian Flores just trying to play a little conservative, you know, try and control the football, not get too crazy. Because if you're going to lose to a rookie quarterback, it's because you make turnovers, right? And I could see him basically just being like, we're not going to let it, we're not going to beat ourselves. So I'd actually do kind of like this one. You don't need to be efficient to get over 50 yards with the way I think Miami is going to run the ball in this game. Yeah, yeah.

All right, Craig, what do you got? Nothing like an inefficient 50 yards bet. Look, man, I tell you one that's going to win, you don't like it. I tell you one that's cool, you don't like it. I don't know what you want for me. I don't like any of yours, Hyfitz. That's the thing. Yeah, we'll see what you're all that looks like on Monday.

Let's see. So I'm going Damien Harris over 69 and a half rushing yards this week against Miami. Pat's are three-point favorites at home. You guys just didn't buy my Damian Harris cold water, did you? Well, I mean, hell. They got rid of Ram... I got rid of Cam and Burkhead. Those are the two goal on guys.

He's going to be on the field the entire time. Ramon J. Stevenson dislocated his thumb like a week ago. I really think... Yeah, that sucked. For week one, perhaps things would change down the road. For week one, it's got to be Damien Harris as the guy. I think they want to be a lot more balanced with Mack. And the Patriots are just like a really strong run-blocking team.

In Miami's one of the worst run-stopping teams in the league. The Pat's averaged 167 yards rushing per game last year against Miami. and every time Harris gets touches, he puts up a lot of yards. He had 14 or more touches six times last year, and he averaged 86 yards in those games. And I think 14 touches for him is his floor. I mean, I think he'll easily see 14 carries.

I don't know who else is getting the damn ball on the ground. This is, yeah, this is exactly the same vibes slash analysis as what we were just talking about with Gaskin. It's like, I think Bill Belichick is going to come into this game and be like, look, we're not going to try and put way too much stuff on Mack Jones's shoulder. we're going to run the ball. That's what we're good at. That's going to be our identity. And you know what I mean? Like we're not going to try and just like throw the ball all over the yard,

especially with like, you know, the receiving cord that they have, Hunter Henry's just coming back. I bet you anything that they'll just like try and like smash mouth it, play bully ball or whatever and just go in there and run the ball. And so yeah, I actually do like this. I was just joking about Damien Harris. It does suck though that Romantra got hurt because that really hurts my, my hot take from the other day. Well, and conversely to the to the Gaskin thing, and this is just a great matchup. I mean, Gaskins is a tough matchup, and High Fitz is hoping kind of for a volume push to get over 50. This is a fantastic matchup for Harris. He's the lead guy

with a great old line going up against a bad D line. There you go. D.K. got another prop bet? Yes, I do. Alvin Camara, over 57.5 rushing yards. So they're playing the Packers, and I don't think even really, the opponent doesn't really matter, but I do see this game kind of

probably being somewhat close back and forth. You I don't think that the, I think the, I think the Saints defense is good enough to kind of like keep them in this game. I don't know for sure what we're going to get from the, from the Saints offense in this one. But I don't see this being like a runaway thing where the Saints have to completely abandon their run game. And with Latavius Murray now gone, Tony Jones is a big question mark. To me, it just feels like this all says Alvin Camara is just going to get more touches than he has in the past. Maybe not like a ton more touches. He's not going to be like

Christian McCaffrey style. but instead of, you know, having 12 to 13 touches or running rushes a game, maybe he'll have like 15 to 16 this year or whatever it is. And so last year, this is idiot math, but I was just like, I just did this because it gives you a good visualization. So Camara over his career, his average five rushing yards per attempt. In order for him to hit the over on this, he would need 11 and a half carries. So I don't know, I just see him getting more carries than that, not necessarily like he's going to average. average 5.10 exactly in this game or whatever. But I think he's going to get probably 15 to 18 rushes plus, you know, obviously a handful of catches, but that doesn't really matter in this

one. But I just think that they're going to use him more than maybe we're used to just because they don't have anyone else in this offense right now. I think he's their best player in offense. Yeah, I was really close to it. This number jumped out to me when I was going through the sportsbook. I was like, what? 57 and a half feels so low. I guess my fear is they get down quick. Camara gets a ton of work in the passing game and the Saints offense just kind of isn't really what we expect it to be and we're still kind of operating off recency bias

of the Drew Bree Saints and that, you know, Camara has like a 12 carry for 42-yard game but has nine catches. I guess that's my only fear. My fear is similar in that you mentioned he needs like 11 and a half so it's 12 carries. Well, Camero only averages like 12 and a half carries a game last year

or the last two years. So I think my fear is I just don't think the Saints are going to win this game. Yeah, I mean, you're banking on Latavius being gone, and he gets four or five more carries a game, which I think is super possible. That's pretty much what I was basing the assumption on. I have two assumptions in this game,

and number one, I think that it's going to be a close-ish game. The line is like three and a half. It's not like the Packers are favored by a bunch. And then number two... I wish three and a half. That's way lower than it should be. It's on a neutral field, too, which is kind of weird.

It's in Jacksonville. regardless. My assumption is it's going to be close-ish game and then he's going to get more touches than we're used to seeing just because of this offense and the way it's changed. Yeah, listen, I'm kind of not that in on Camara this year. I think some of the things that have changed in the last two weeks has like brought me back to life a little bit with him. But there is a chance. There's still a small chance that, I mean, it's not like he's the least durable guy in the league. Like, he generally is pretty healthy and plays most games. Like, Sean Payton could just give him 20 carries a game.

Like, he could get 22 rushes week one and everyone's like, oh, shit. They're going to treat him like Zeke this year. And then everything kind of changes. I don't think that's going to happen, but it's certainly in play. Right. I need you. All right. I got another one.

I need your guy's help, though. So the Steelers are playing the bills this week. There are three overunders I'm looking at. And I don't know. I'm so curious. It's like the Steelers dilemma of who's going to get the ball. So you got Deonti Johnson over under 65 yards. Juju is over under 49 and a half.

Chase Claypool's also over over under 49 and a half. I feel like the bills are going to win this game. But I'm curious which of those three you guys would bet on if you had about one of those guys. It's juju and Claypool at 50, Deonti at 65. I don't think it's Claypool. Here's why. I think, I mean, listen, the builds have a great defense,

and they spent their first two draft picks on front seven guys and pass rushers, and the Steelers have one of the worst offensive lines in the league. I think, obviously, the Steelers will try to be more balanced as an offense and not lead the league in passing this year. However, I think they might be forced into, like, 20-20 Steelers in this week where Ben has to get the ball out quick. so these deep shots the claypole might not be as

abundant. So like I kind of think Juju over 49 is like the sneaky play there but the safe one is probably just Deontay over 65. Because we just do under. Is it crazy to under on Claypool even though we like Claypool for this season? The fear there is he has like 200.

Just takes up one big play. That's actually why my first reaction Craig was the opposite of you. I was like, I'd take Claypool because you can get you know like 85% of it on one big play and then he could just have two or three other catches in him. He's in.

So I don't know. I'm just, there is some worry, though, that he's going to get shadowed by the bill's top corner. I'm blanking on his name. Yeah, so that could be an issue. So maybe that's not the best bet. But my first thought was just like, yeah, Claypool, because he's the deep guy. He's the big play threat.

And all it would take is like one or two solid deep shots and you get it. This is the Steelers' conundrum in a nutshell. Yeah. So who's your pick? You got to pick one. I think I'd actually go Juju under 49 and a half. We got to have it under here.

I'm thinking Juju under 49 and a half is actually what I'm going to go with. I like it. All right, Craig, got another propette. Yeah, I want to stay in the same game.

I'm taking Stefan Diggs over 88 and a half receiving yards. This is like half a gut call and half stats. 10 out of 16 games last year, including the game against the Steelers. He had over 88 and a half yards. Against the Steelers,

he had 14 tar. targets, 10 catches, 130 yards of a touchdown. I mean, the Steelers absolutely blow against number one wide receivers. They get shredded by them every year. Every time I have a fantasy guy going up against them, they go nuts. And the Steelers lost two corners this offseason. So I think the bills are going to throw out a ton. Diggs 88.

This is like a classic week one low line. By week four, Stefan Diggs will be at like a hundred and a half each week. So I think this is a no brain. Yeah. I feel like the bills are just going to, based on, how they played last year and then based on how they played in their last preseason game, they're just going to go all out this year. It's just like no holds barred, spread it out, pass 90% of the time and just see where it goes. And I cannot wait to watch this.

Are we at all worried about what the fun digs is knee? I mean, he's not in the injury port this week, so he's probably fine, but. I mean, no, not really. What was it? It kept him out of time out of practice for a little bit. Yeah. But it's probably precautionary. We're just curious. Yeah. I mean, it's, I guess, slight worried. I feel like, I'm worried about all NFL players. Every time an NFL player gets tackled, I'm like, oh, God, he's not getting up. But then they get up.

It's just like, these guys are so tough. Yeah, you can just say, what about Blank's knee and slot in any player? Yeah, for real. Well, he actually missed time for it. I mean, it's valid. It's valid, but still. Yeah, I'm just asking.

All right. All right, so we should run through. So, Hyphids. Who are your three bets? I'm taking juju under 50 yards. I got my home's over 313 yards because I'm an idiot, but I will put, like, very little. money on that just to root for Patrick Mahomes. And then Miles Gaskin over 50 rushing yards.

Yeah. And I got Kyler Murray over 259.5 passing yards. A Patrick Mahomes over 14 and a half rushing yards. So basically two scrambles. Come on, Pat. And then Alvin Camara over 57.5 rushing yards. I have Kyler over 42 and a half rushing yards because that narrative is fake that he's going to stop running. I have Damien Harris over 69.5 rushing yards. And Stefan Diggs over 88 and a half receiving yards versus Pitt. Love it. Let's get all these overs out of our system. Let's also go to a couple long shot here.

Yeah, a little special props. So wait, how are we going to count these? Do these count against us like each week? No. Okay. These don't count for making money. Right, right. Just for fun.

Okay. Special props are immune to the talent. What if you win? No, it doesn't matter. What if it's like a money ball? You make ten times more money than if I make ten times more money to two of you, but I lost the other bets, but I hit one of these, that doesn't count. No.

We're doing, it's the over under battle. These are all coin flip bets. So it's the over under battle. These special props, it's like, DK's picking ones that are plus 120, and I'm picking one that's plus $7.50. So how's that fair? What if we do two separate battles?

No, and the person that ends up one battle. The person that makes the most money on special props over the end of the year wins. How about that? One battle, keep it simple. Well, here's my, I got Jamal Williams, is plus $250 to score rushing touchdown.

So two and a half to one. I like that a lot. Like DeAndre Swift has a groin injury. It seems like he's going to play. I just don't think he's going to get the goal line touches. And even though I think the Niners will probably destroy the Lions, I just think Jamal Williams essentially is a goal line back, two and a half to one to score rushing touchdown.

Also, he's 26 to one to get two, which is nuts. I'm a little psycho, but like, I kind of like that one too. Go for it. I don't know if the Lions are going to score two touchdowns in this game is the problem. That's a problem. Also, on that note, the same one.

The Lions' Niners game, Rahim Mustard is 5 to 1 to be the first person. to score a touchdown? That is literally mine. Are you looking at the dock? Yeah, I wrote that down. I wrote that down. I didn't.

Oh my God, we both have it. We both look, we both have it. Yours is not, I didn't see yours because I don't read the fine print, but mine is literally in the boldness. Are you serious? Wow, look at us. I would have thought. Yes, first TD score of the game

where he moster, because let's be honest, I think the Niners are great the first touchdown. This is going to be like the third play of the game. He's going to take around 80 yards and score touchdown. 100%. Obviously the Niners are scoring first

and you're like, well, if they run, it's probably like, I don't think rookie Trey Sarman's getting the goal line carries and I also don't know if Trey Lances either. Like, I just feel like, it's going to score. If this first quarter happens five times, I think Rahim Moster will absolutely score a touchdown

in one of those scenarios. I completely, yeah, wow, we are on the same way for it. So that's mine. So way to go. Way to read what I wrote. Well, I wish I was in there first. Get out of here. Yours is fine print. I don't read that.

I don't read all the explanations you put. DK only reads the teleprompter. You never read the teleprompter. We got to figure out of shit here. Once again, this is what Hyfitz does every episode. You're supposed to put one bet. He has three. Which one is it?

You've got to pick one. I agree with this normally. First of all, I thought we weren't counting these. I'm just trying to, I'm telling people what I'm betting on. Craig, I agree with you 95% of the time about this, but I have three here for my, for one. The whole point is it's a special prop. We all bet on one special prop. It's not like, well, there's like seven things I kind of like.

That's fair. being transparent. It's unbelievable. Your gripe is fair, Craig. However, I'm just still going to say the three of these. My official one is Jalen Hertz scores a touchdown. Basically, it's any touchdown not passing, so either receiving or rushing. I'm guessing it's going to be a rushing touchdown.

But I also think, so there's three in here that I really like. Jalen Hertz anytime TD is plus 170. If you're feeling really spicy, Jalen Hertz, the first touchdown score in this game is 11 to 1, which I kind of like. I kind of like that one a lot. It's really interesting. And then Kyler Murray,

this goes back to the Kyler Murray rushing thing, Craig. Kyler Murray anytime touchdown, so basically a rushing touchdown is plus 120. So I like all three of those. I'm choosing Jaylen Hertz's touchdown. I'm choosing Jaylen Hertz

anytime touchdown plus 170, but I think that the 11th one that he is going to be the first touchdown score is pretty great too. And that has to be rushing as well, correct? Correct.

It can't be a passing touchdown. It has to be rushing or receiving. That's pretty good. Okay. We will see. I kind of reject the premise that if I lose the over-unders, but Jamal Williams gets two touchdowns and I get plus 20, I get 26 times my money that I should lose. But we will, we will, that's fine, Craig. Here's how you win because you actually get that money. But in the context of our show, you don't get a little tally. But congrats. You just got $400. Yeah. That should be enough, I think. Right. Fine. Yeah, I suppose. Okay. Don't look at gift horse in the mouse, I fits. Let's get to the bad quarterback league. I'm just unreasonably excited to do this every Friday.

Again, you pick six quarterbacks. There are six tiers. So you can't just pick like Andy Dalton and Daniel Jones. Like they're both in the same tier. So you got to pick one. So we're going to go through each tier. We're explaining who we're picking. It's really fun.

Again, Fandle.com slash bad QB. You can play along with us. It's like three bucks to enter. We're doing it every week. It's going to be a lot of fun. So without further ado, the revival of the bad quarterback league, tier one, aka the worst of the worst.

The worst of the worst. Or you could argue the best of the best. Well, yes. You probably should argue. All right, so tier one includes Daniel Jones, Andy Dalton, Jared Goff, Teddy Bridgewater, and Mack Jones.

Who'd you guys take? Who's going to play the shittiest? I have Daniel Jones because... For obvious reasons. Yeah. Mac Jones should not be in this tier. I'm surprised. He got a bad...

He got a bad draw on this one. But Daniel Jones is... I mean, it's both because I'm a Giants fan and, like, self-hatred, but also just, like, he has led the league in fumbles each of the last two years and also has the situational awareness of, like, a deer crossing the road at, like, one in the morning. He's going to get Strip-sacked 100% in this game, which is seven points, right? If you lose a fumble, it's seven points. Where's my prop bet on Von Miller's strip-sack, Daniel Jones, like, on the first drive-in-game?

Where's that prop bet? D.K., who'd you take? So I went with Andy Dalton. Me too. The main reason is, six. Same exact deal as Daniel Jones. I could just see Aaron Donald absolutely obliterating this Bears' offensive line, strip sacking him.

It's going to happen. It will happen. The only thing I like about Andy Dalton Moore is he's not going to be, he's not going to run. And I don't think he's going to pass for as many yards as Daniel Jones. So I think he's going to score more points because he's going to have a worse game and get sacked and fumbled. Right. And just how Russian quarterbacks are better in real fantasy football, Russian quarterbacks are worse in the bad quarterbacks. Like that's why I like Dalton as well.

Also, there's a little sneaky chance that Dalton just gets benched in the second quarter or gets drilled or something. And Justin Fields comes in and he's not going to lose you any more points. Yeah, by the way, for a reference in this league, getting a zero in this league is actually not like the worst thing. Because a lot of these guys, like for instance, Aaron Rogers, if he has a very efficient typical game, he's going to score like negative 25 points in the way that the scoring works. So getting benched is not the worst outcome. If Dalton comes out here and throws three picks in the first half, he's probably getting benched. And then we're good for the rest of the game.

Yeah. So we got one Daniel Jones, two Andy Dalton's. Tier two, the tier two quarterbacks are Sam Darnold, Tyra Taylor, Carson Wentz, Tua,

and Zach Wilson. I chose Wentz because he's Wentz, right? Same. Like, we all did this. If there's anybody that's as bad in the pocket in terms of,

like, fumbling and making terrible decisions, if there's anyone as bad as Daniel Jones in the NFL, it's Carson Wentz. What's your contrarian take, Craig? I zagged and I took Tua. You son of a bitch. Isabelichek?

Yeah, yeah, that's right. I took the guy with a shitty offensive line who has still yet to prove that he's good, going up against the greatest defensive coach of all time in New England. Yeah, give me two. It is a rough draw. It's a rough draw.

He doesn't really run. Wentz could sneak in a rushing touchdown. Tua could throw three picks. I kind of like this. I kind of like this. Shit. DK is such a win sock to it.

It's like any good news, he's like, he's back. Any bad news? He's like, I'm just being pragmatic. But yes. Yeah, you're probably right.

All right. Tier three is James Winston, Jimmy Garoppel, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Baker, Mayfield, and Kirk Cousins. I just want to point out briefly that Jimmy Garaple

quietly was like the fourth best or worse depending you count it quarterback in the bad quarterback league if we had done it last year. He's like... As in he sucked the most. He would have sucked them.

He was like almost on a Daniel Jones level for Jimmy G. But I took Fitzpatrick here. Me too. I took Jimmy Garapolo. James is like the obvious pick, but I come like, I feel like he wouldn't be playing if Sean Payton thought he was going to turn over the ball.

I'm just like Fitzpatrick is still good for like a pick or three. Yeah, and like the charges of a good defense. I mean, Fitz is pretty hot and cold. It's not insane to imagine him with a fumble and three picks in this game, even if he puts up like 300 yards. I think the Washington offense will start out a little slower than people think. I just think that just because Fitzpatrick is smart and old and went to Harvard. It's like he isn't just immediately know the entire offense.

like he's not Tom Brady with the bucks and even they had growing pains so I do think it'll start a little slow So part of the reason I went with Garoppolo And I'm sort of second guessing myself now But like there's an actual chance He plays like half the snaps Like it's not as good as getting benched

But there's a chance he plays like half the snaps As some of these other guys And doesn't accumulate many yards Doesn't it rush You could just throw the ball 11 times Like would that be that surprising to you at all? Yeah Two real hours

I could see that just they beat the lines by that much. All right, tier four. It's Matt, these are where the guys kind of are good. Matt Stafford, Matt Ryan, Ben Rothesberger, Joe Burrow, and Trevor Lawrence. I took Joe Burrow before. I think that's the obvious one, yeah. Before, I though, a giraffe in a zoo in Bat Rouge named after Joe Burrow died of an illness

that happened earlier today on Thursday, which is probably not a great omen for Joe Burrow this weekend. Our condolences to the giraffe and his family. I went with Ben Rathesberger Mainly because I think they're going to fall behind Early-ish in the game And then have to rely on Big Ben to like slinging around And I could just see him throwing two picks in this game Pretty easily

Oh listen anytime Ben is always a candidate to just launch fourth In the game I went with Burrow I don't know the guy's still shaky on his knee Jamar Chase needs stripes on a football in order to catch it Things aren't looking great Stop that

This is why athletes don't speak to reporters. Straight up. Like if you've ever like if you're ever wondering why these guys just don't like the media, it's because Jamar Chase

gives an honest and thoughtful answer of like the difference between an NFL football and a college football and he describes it and now it goes around viral and everyone's like

those fucking idiots blaming the ball for why I get catch. I'm like he was just asked about the difference and I don't blame him for hating everyone now. I was texting my friend

like he was probably just sitting back kind of just having a nice conversation with a reporter and this was probably one of like the 15 things they talked about.

And he was like, yeah, you know, actually it's a bit weirder because the ball doesn't have stripes on it. And now it's like all over the internet. He blames this for his drop issues, accountability. Poor Jemar Chase, bad vibes in the Bengals. Tier 5. Now gets tough. Jalen Hertz, Russell Wilson, Justin Herbert, Ryan Tannahill.

This is hard. I went with Justin Herbert because I think we all need to chill a little bit on Herbert and also the Washington defense is good. I won't chill on it. So I took Hertz because we literally don't know if Jalen Hertz is good at football. We know the other three guys are. Well, he has made all four college football playoffs, so he's good at football.

I went with Hertz too. So I went with Hertz. Last year, he was one of the worst passers. Based on, like, his four-game start stint. His passing was pretty atrocious. It hurts a lot that he's such a good runner. And if he runs a lot and he scores a touchdown on the ground or whatever, like, actually, do touchdowns on the ground count?

Yeah, they're negative six. Okay, so. It's just like the opposite. The inverse. Except for the turnovers, interceptions are like 10 and loss fumbles are like seven. If he does what I think he's going to do, which is run and score touchdowns with his legs, like it's going to hurt. But I also think he was the worst passer of this group by a large, large margin, least efficient.

And it wouldn't be that surprising to have him throw a couple picks, honestly. So that's why I want with hurts. All right, on that note, the last tier six, tier six is good quarterbacks. Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, Patrick Mum, Aaron Rogers. I won't Josh Allen because like, I'll be freaking damned if he can't. still throw two interceptions at a game. You're leaning into this, Josh Allen is actually going to just be

bad at an thing. You have Aaron Rogers who throws like two picks a year. You have Patrick Mahomes who throws zero picks in September and then you got, it's Kyler and Josh Allen and Josh Allen's the most chaotic.

Dude, Craig read my mind. I mean, again, Mahomes had 11 picks in the last two seasons. Wow. Well, I mean, I understand not choosing Aaron Rogers in the homes. I mean, and also they're going up against like TJ Watt, like I don't know,

a strip sack, like it's possible. Okay, that's a, fair. I won't with Kailer Murray, but I get it. I get it. Um, he would have been my second pick, but the rushing thing is scary with Josh Allen and Kyler, but yeah, it's just like, also to Hyvitz's take purge from Monday. Like, oh, what if he just sucks? Like, Josh Allen could just be like a little, a little too chaotic this year. He's still, he's still kind of good, but, but like not as good. On that note, to go back to the props for a second, I don't remember the exact number. The Steelers defense to score like the first touchdown of the game is like 60 to 1 or

something. I was like, if the bills come out and Josh Alters have picked six to Minka Fitzpatrick on like the first like drive of the game would just be freaking perfect. That would be the apex mountain for that take. Well, now we're getting too meta. All right. Well, that's it. Then D.K., you took Kyler, we took Josh. All right. So I've got Daniel Jones, Carson Wendz, Fitz, Joe Burrow, Herbert, and Josh Allen. It's my bad quarterback team. I got Andy Dalton tier one, Wentz, Garapolo, Ben Rothesberger, Jalen Hertz, and Kyler Murray. I'm feeling really good about it. Yeah.

I got Dalton, Tua, Fitz, Burrow, Jalen Hertz, and Josh Allen. Feeling great. I'm feeling great about my team. I am loving this. I'm feeling great about this game. Please play with us at Fandul.com slash bad QB. You can join in. There's only 10,000 spots.

I think, like, good amount of them are already gone, even though this podcast has not got up yet. So, guys, hold on, hold on, hold on, hold on, hold on. Before we go, big news, just hit the Twitters. The Ravens are signing veteran free agent Devante Freeman to the practice squad per Drew Rosenhaus drink This is from Adam Schaefter by the way

That's why I said drink Rosenhaus. The idea is that Freeman will be promoted to the Ravens Active roster What if Freeman gets promoted over Levion Bell? I think I would rather have Freeman than Levi-on-Bel like no doubt. I think so.

Yeah, I think so. Really? Yes, I think Devante Freeman will play more. If either of them are fantasy relevant, I would pick Devante Freeman. Why? Devonte Freeman hasn't had a relevant. relevant moment in like three years. Why is he better than Leveon? I just think his skill set is like if

someone's going to get goal line touches, I think it would be Devante over Leveon. And I also just kind of think he's crazy to say. I think he's more tread on his tires. Hmm. I don't know. I have the opportunity right now to add him and drop Levyon Bell. Do I do it? Oh boy. Look, it's not like the Ravens throat of the running backs. Like, what are you holding on a Levy on Bell for so he can catch? Like, they're not going to do it. They're the same age. They're both 29. I don't know. It's like 46. No offense to any 46-year-olds

listening to this podcast. I don't know. I guess I just don't really get the argument of why Defante Freeman is better than... I think we're approaching the point where it's... This backfield now is a mishmash of like, I don't know

who's valuable anymore. Because I think Tyson Williams will be the starter. But like Gus Edwards was worth rostering because there was a like certainty that if Jacob's got hurt, he'd be good. And also Gus Edwards would have his own

independent role. I feel like that entire concept, the premise that you necessarily want, the backups in this offense is now shattered. Like this is a curse team, and even though there's a ton of rushing, if Tyson Williams is the main guy, I feel like that other role might be split in so many different ways. And the Ravens themselves will be tinkering with the position so much that I don't know who's going to have any consistent fantasy value for more than three weeks at a time other than Tyson Williams. Yeah. So this guy, Jeff Zerevich, probably mispronouncing that. he's a Ravens reporter for the athletic said that the Ravens were interested in signing Freeman earlier in the week after they felt he had a good workout with a path to immediate playing time Freeman now comes aboard unlike Bell he has camp in preseason under his belt could make him more rated to step up there you go that sounds like a point of way of saying someone's in shape and someone is not which again comes back to like how is Loveon Bell going to get reps to be relevant anyway any opportunity I can get to drop Levian Bell I will do it I think this is it all right anything else uh no I wanted to add that when you do, if you're on Fandle,

if you don't want to type in the URL, you can just go to NFL and then it's under game styles. You know how there's single game, full roster, snake, blah, blah, blah. Just go to the bottom. It says bad quarterback league right there under the NFL tab. And if you haven't joined Fendal yet, use our promo code. It's a ringer fantasy. Yeah. A little discount.

It's a big discount. Also, we're doing a green room Sunday morning. Be there. 9 o'clock, Pacific. Yeah, Spotify Green Room. Check it out on Twitter. You download the greenroom map. We'll be doing StartSit, other stuff. and shop, 9 a.m. Cup of Joe in our hands.

Talking shop. Well, I mean, it'll be noon for me on the East Coast, but yeah. Hyphids will have an IPA in his hand, and we will be helping you out. Download the Green Room app, and then you can join. Join in at noon.

All right. Thank you, D.K., thank you, Craig. Thank you to Fandul. Thank you to the Reader. Thank you, Green Room. Thank you, Lord. Lord. Thank you, the White Stripes.

Oh, Jack White. You big Jack White guy? I mean, he's a good. He's our player. Okay. That was him and his wife in that band, right? And then they got a divorce. You're asking?

Did you? Are you telling me? I'm confirming with you. I thought they were confirming to the sister. Well, now I am, but that was what I originally thought. Liquid Mac's situation. Yes, yes, yes. The group consisted of Jack White and his ex-wife, Meg White.

There we go. Thank you very much. Okay. Thank you, Meg White. Icky Thump. Dumb, done, done, done, all, goodbye.