The Ringer NFL Show - Who To Start Over Russ? Plus Championship Week Bold Predictions

Episode Date: December 23, 2020

We begin the show by playing a start/sit name game with Russell Wilson before offering up our gut calls and bold predictions for the Week 16 slate. Then we look back on our Week 15 predictions, build our million-dollar daily fantasy lineup, and finish the show with a fun fact. Sit or Start Russell Wilson? (2:48) Week 16 Predictions: Darrell Henderson, Rams (16:20) Chase Edmonds, Cardinals (19:28) Tom Brady, Bucs (20:58) Salvon Ahmed, Dolphins (24:18) Tyron Johnson, Chargers (27:08) Austin Hooper, Browns (28:22) Leonard Fournette, Bucs (34:17) Marvin Jones, Lions (36:20) Jeff Wilson, 49ers (38:26) Lil'Jordan Humphrey, Saints (39:05) Million-Dollar Lineup (45:11) Fun Fact (48:51) Email us! [e-mail] Hosts: Danny Heifetz, Danny Kelly, and Craig Horlbeck Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On today's episode of the Ringer Fantasy Football Show, it is our last episode before the fantasy football championships. So we play the name game with Russell Wilson and give who we would start over him. Hint, it is a lot of people. Then we give our gut calls and bold predictions for Week 16. And then Craig complains our bowls are unbold enough because he didn't get enough sleep or whatever. He was just mean today. Then we give a special edition of the million dollar lineup.

Stick around. Welcome to the Ringer Fantasy Football Show. My name is Danny Heifitz, and I'm joined by Danny Kemp. Kelly and Craig Coralbeck. Are you guys ready for a fun fact? Absolutely. All right, fun fact, there will no longer be any Friday shows for us the rest of 2020. Obviously, it's Christmas and then New Year's over the next couple weeks. So we're not going to do Fridays again. We will check back in with our schedule for 2021. So this is our last episode before the fantasy football championships. So we're going to help you guys get ready. But there's one question on our minds for this weekend.

I think I know what it is. What do we do with Russell Wilson? Spoiler alert. I mean, we have all personally been affected by this and then we've got so many emails about it. It's ridiculous. Yeah, is he dangerous anymore? I mean, I'm living, I'm living this dilemma right now. I'm in the championship of my league, you know, not to brag or anything,

but my team went 12 and 1 this year. Wow. Because it's a super flex league with Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray. And I was just freaking dominating for most of the season. Then all of a sudden, thank God, Kyler is, because he had a little mini slump too, but now Russell Wilson, I honestly don't think I can start him.

I have two, Ataga Vyloa as my backup, and sorry, I butcher the name, Tungavila. I have him as my sort of, like, third quarterback backup, and I'm pretty sure at this point

I'm starting to over Russell, which is, it's wild. I'm right there with you, D.K. I am in a championship, and I have Russ as my one quarterback, and I do not know what to do. So this will be worth it for a lot of people. Yeah.

Do I have to say I'm in a championship too now, like to be fantasy? Alpha Mail? Is that required now? Yeah, one-up. You're a two fan. I'm in three championships with Russell Wilson, and I don't know what to do. It's like that Kristen Whig-Sanel character. He was like, my dad actually invented the moon. He built the moon

himself and lives there. My father, the inventor of the Toaster Struddle. Okay, do you guys want to just roll through the ESPN rankings for this week and just kind of talk about whether we would start this person over Russell Wilson? Because I feel like this is weird. I mean, we can give a brief like, so I just wanted to note that Russell Wilson has not scored

more than 20 points since week nine? Here's the thing with Russ, and here's why we're down on him. Sometimes players have bad stretches where, you know what, they have a system, they're of an approach,

game plan, and it's work sometimes, doesn't work sometimes, and you roll with the player because you like the talent, you like the situation. That is not what's going on here. It's not something changed

with their success rate. It's not an injury. The Seahawks changed what they want to do in offense. DK illuminated this. Yeah, we're shot Penny's back. I mean, is there really any other explanation? It's an earthquake right there,

like the beastquake. But, no, D.K. illuminated this. Basically, when the Seahawks had, what is it, four turnover, four turnovers against the bills, three against the Rams, Pete Carroll buckled down because turnovers are, I mean, I don't even know. It's kryptonite. There's nothing worse than turnovers in the Pete Carroll-like world.

It's one of the biggest focuses of the entire franchise, other than just competing about everything, is protect the football on offense, get the football on defense. Those are like the two major tenets of his whole system. So, yeah, the fact that Wilson started just turning the ball over at that rate, that was just like, okay, we're done. We gave it a shot. We'll see how this goes. It did not go well. And so they were willing to air the ball out in the first half of the season, I think a little to his chagrin.

But in part because the running backs were all really hurt. So they kind of had to. And also the defense was so bad that they just got in shootouts. But then the defense got a little healthier. The Dauphin started turning over the ball over and the running backs got healthier. And so they went back to this kind of, they don't care how many yards they gain. They don't care how many points they score. they want to win the game, that's just Pete Carroll's life.

So this is a different team. You see Russell Wilson, the little picture of him is the same guy that got you 50 points like six weeks ago. That guy's not playing anymore. He's gone. You know who doesn't think that? Yahoo! In projection.

Exactly. I don't know what's going on. He's projected for 21.4 or 5 points, something he has done once since November 8th. Why are they continuing to do that? He scored 11 points the last time he played the Rams. He's playing the Rams again. The 21.45 is screwing with you because you go and you look at the streamer options. They're all averaging like 17.

You don't know what to do. He had 121 yards last week. 121 yards passing. Yeah, he only saved his day because he ran for like 50, 60 yards. And he was mostly on one run. He was a 38-yard run. It was a long as the Seahawks season. You take that away.

I need a pretty bad day. All right. So I'm just going to tick off the top six here. It's Mahomes, Rogers, Josh Allen, Tom Brady, actually. Kyler Murray, Jalen Hertz. You're starting all of those guys over Russ pretty easily, right? Yeah. Yes.

Then we go to Sean Watson, Lamar Jackson, Justin, Herbert. That's the top nine. All those guys pretty easily, right? Yeah. Okay. Now we get into the real situation. So where are we at? 12 right now? That is the top nine. Okay. Now, now we're getting a real business.

Russell Wilson or Mitchell Trubisky. Trubisky's going against the Jaguars. Oh my God. This is a very, I mean, this is the perfect example of why we're having this discussion. I'm like actually thinking about Trubisky because he's been playing pretty well. I'm starting to lean the other way about this and just this game matters to Russ.

Like this is a very important game. He's maybe like the third best quarterback in the league. Like talk about which one's going to give you a bigger hangover. It's got to mix. No, but the thing is that Trubisky is playing the Jaguars and Russ is playing the Rams. And it's hard because we've been like, oh, well, the Rams are the best defense, blah, blah, blah. Now they just lost to the Jets. But I still think the Rams played the Steelers really hard.

Also, I hate that logic, to be honest, because it implies the Rams don't care. So am I, am I absolutely crazy for thinking I'm going to start Tua over Russell? if we're still having the Mitch Trubisky discussion right here because I would assume Tua is probably ranked lower than Trubisky at this point again. Well, the next rest of it's Trubisky, then it's Baker. Tanahill, Russ, Matt Ryan, Tua. And then Mario Tanooga. Why is Tannahill so low?

So Tannehill 100%. I'm sorry. Tannhill should be higher. That's really close. Tadhill is absolutely. Go through that slowly high. Let's read that list again. So again, QB10 for the week on ESPN is Mitchell Trubisky.

11 is Baker Mayfield. Tan Hill is 13 I skip 12 I don't know but regardless Russ then it's Russell Wilson Matt Ryan Tua and then Marcus Marioota for the Raiders

Stafford and then Rothesberger I'm absolutely playing Russell Wilson over Rothesberger Russell Wilson over Drew Breez Russell Wilson over Gardner Minchu Russell Wilson over Jared Gough All that's easy Russell Wilson over Cam Newton I agree with those I agree with that's easy Would you all let's process of elimination here

Russ over Marcus Mariotta Have to right I would go Russ. I would go Russ. Russ over Matt Ryan. Now the Falcons are playing the Chiefs. I think that's the highest over under the week. I'm going Russ in that.

I don't trust Matt Ryan. I know he had a good game last week. I don't trust him still, though. Especially if Julio doesn't go. A decision I have to make, Russ against the Rams or Baker against the Jets. I think I go Baker. Baker's been good lately.

Baker is on fire. I don't care about any of like the actual schematic stuff. Like people are, you know, saying he's not making any tough throws. they're scheming everything up. I don't care. He's been pretty good in fantasy. And I think I would rather ride him, you know, in terms of it, he's kind of like riding

the hot hand or whatever because he's been playing well, been putting up points. Their offense is working. Wait, so are we the version of Bruce Aaron? Playing the Jets. We hate playing the hot hand. We're like, just stick with one guy. He has 11 touchdowns to one pick in his last four games. I think I actually have to make this decision.

And it feels nuts to take Russ out of my lineup. But I think Baker, again, again, it's just Baker against the Jets. Like it just at a certain point kind of makes sense. So I think the discussion, the heart of the discussion really is, it's very difficult to look at Russell Wilson, who is, I still think one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL full stop. However, the way the Seahawks are playing right now is what really worries me. It's not that I think Russell Wilson is bad. It's that they're going to slow the game down. And I see the, honestly, I can see the Rams doing this too.

A lot of running. It's going to make the game go really, really quickly. There's going to be not as many possessions because they're just going to be run. running a lot. The clock's going to be running. You know what I mean? Like I could see the Seahs getting like four possessions in the first half. You know what I mean? And so this is what worries me. And I could see them just being very careful with Russell Wilson. There is a universe. There is there is a scenario where he absolutely goes off. But to me, it's, it's much more likely that it's just like a very slow, sloggy game where Russell Wilson is just like the game manager. They're running a lot

and trying not to turn the ball over to the Rams. point about him being careful. In the first nine weeks of the season, he had five touchdowns of more than 40 yards. Five. And then in the last six weeks, he has zero. Yeah, but he's still taking the shots. I mean, he literally pretty much had one to swain last week.

That's true. That was like out by an inch. The only thing about this is like... So, you're right. The Rams run the ball a lot. There could be like a kind of a game style situation. Cam Acres has heard he's not going to play, so they're going to be probably using Daryl Henderson. The Seahawks are kind of good against the run.

this game is super important. They're in Seattle. I don't know, man. I guess it's just like... This is impossible. It comes back to the thing I always feel that can help people make these decisions when you're on the fence

is imagine you make both decisions and they both go terribly wrong and that if you had... And that is the reason you lost your fantasy season. Like you would have won the championship if you had just made that decision correctly. And you imagine it both ways which one makes you feel less dumb.

What will be easier to sleep at night knowing I benched Russell Wilson for this player? Or is it easier to sleep at night knowing you lost because you started him? And I actually think as crazy as it is to say, if Russell Wilson goes off on your bench, obviously it depends who the other quarterback is. But I have him in multiple leagues. And I think that right now, I'd actually feel dumber if Russ gets nine points in my starting lineup. When we can all sit here and give six reasons for why that would make sense. as opposed to

if he goes off all right he had a great player at a great game against the great team but there's so many reasons to think that they're just the Seahawks aren't trying

to do what they did in the first half of the season you're not trying to get Russ to be like that again because the Seahawks aren't trying to get Russ to be like that again so I'd feel pretty dumb

if I ignored a stated philosophy change from the team just trying to like make something happen in my lineup so I actually think

I can sleep at night easier if I bench him even for Trubisky. A week ago, I was mocking the idea. This is funny. I like hearing what's your thought process and what's going on in your brain on this one. You want me to just throw out another thing

that's just going to make this even more difficult for you? I don't know if I do. Brian Schottenheimer is being considered as a head coach candidate in this next wave of coaching changes. What if this is Shottie's like audition? He's like, I'm just going to go Buck Wilde against, I had a buddy of mine texting me about this. What if he's just going to go buck while against the rounds this week?

It's going to be his resume builder. Get some momentum so he can get a head coaching job in this next little round of. Ultimate shot in Freuda right there. Okay. So we talk about Turyiski. They're going up against Jacksonville. Here at Chubisky's last, this is since he's come back as a starter. He's scored 2013, 24, 14.

It's kind of like Wilson. It's exactly the same. It's pretty much exactly the same. So who are you really going to bet on to have the explosion game? I think the line for me is Baker. Baker is where I'm really not sure and Trubisky's right around Baker for me I think it's actually pretty easy about

Herbert Lamar Deshawn Jalen Kyler Brady Allen Rogers Mahomes those guys are really easy and Tannahill's in that group too I think it's hard with Baker and Mitch and then I actually I think Matt Ryan and Drew Breeze are interesting as well I think Matt Ryan

Matt Ryan's above the line to me I think just because they're playing the Chiefs I know I think I disagree with DK there just because they're playing the Chiefs and I think they can make it happen although you're right the Chief's been really good on defense the line for me is probably I'd play Russ over oh man Russ and Stafford's kind of tough too

this is awful No so right now it's We're recording this Tuesday afternoon So Stafford might not even play He's so banged up It's tough to make that determination right now I'm going with Wilson over Stafford I think we could come to

We should probably come to a consensus on this I think we all probably are leaning Wilson over Trubisky barely right Like, that's kind of like, it's the Trubisky line. I think you can cut Russ if you're not going to play him. I think you can cut him for something else. Sure.

But, like, if you're not and you're on the fence here. So am I? I agree with D.K. I think it goes, we like him over Stafford. I think we slightly like him over Chubisky. I think next up is Matt Ryan. Who we doing here? I'm going, Russ.

I'm going Matt Ryan. I don't like, I like Russell's floor more than Matt Ryan's floor. Matt Ryan's floor in New Orleans In week 11 he scored seven points Yeah Matt Ryan is prone to just have an absolute fucking dud He could go off, that's fine

So could Russell Wilson Russell Wilson at least has the floor I'd rather go Matt Ryan Because I feel like the odds that Matt Ryan Passes for 400 yards against the Chiefs Are higher than Russ passing 400 yards against the rims But the point is you have to talk about it And that's just not good

Okay so am I nuts Am I nuts then about Tua? Should I not play Tua over? The Raiders. The Raiders don't have an impressive past. Yeah, but we've been having this whole discussion. I was assuming that Tua would be ranked lower than Mitch and a lot of people's list. Well, he is, but on ESPN, but who cares?

So why am I going Tua over Russ? Is that insane? Because you love Tua. It's fine. I don't know if I would do that. This is going to be impossible. You're going to take some rookie QB who's been kind of fine of over Russell Wilson? I have not started them one time all year. Well, how much is the fact that they're playing the Rams factoring into this?

A lot. That's a lot for me. Also, to be clear, two has been better than Russell over the last three weeks, like unambiguously. As a player or in fantasy? In fantasy?

Yeah, he has. But he like, he like punched in two rushing touchdowns against the Patriots. That's probably not going to happen every week. Yeah. Russell was one of the longest run of the Seahawks season every week.

Anyway, the point is, most people aren't probably talking about Russ versus two. Don't, is it the whole reason of fantasy is bet on talent? Isn't that what everybody says?

You start talent? No, the point is win. Honestly, there's no rules. You justify how you won later. Just win and then you pretend to be really smart and you gloat about it. There's no rules. It's all about picking the right players, buddy. That's all you got to do.

Just win. It doesn't fucking matter. I think this whole discussion, the point is we got to all just play best ball. Like, fuck this. Yeah. Fuck this is our conclusion. I think we say that Matt Ryan and Baker are the only people that we would be okay with you starting over Russ in that bottom tier. Yeah.

Don't speak for me. No, we can disagree. People can listen to this and make their own conclusions. I thought you agreed with that, Baker and Matt Ryan. Didn't you just say that? I think that's the range that we're in together as a podcast, and it's up to you as a human adult to make your decisions there. Realistically, we're doing this on Tuesday because of Christmas.

The reality is that we're coming kind of early in the week. Like, you know, things can change. COVID can change. We don't know. So, yeah, figure it out. All right. I think I'm going to start Wilson over to a, okay, fucking a. All right, let's get into gut calls, bold prediction.

I love it, D.K. Let's get. All right, well, why we're here, just, DeK, just give us your gut for the week. Championship guts. Let's stick with the Seahawks-Rams game because Cam Acres went out with a ankle injury last week. Actually, he has a high ankle sprain.

So it's shocking to me that he came back and played in this game. He finished this game. This is actually a perfect example of something that we've talked about before, which is a lot of times players can have just like the adrenaline going in a game, get it taped up, come back out, and then the next day it hurts like hell, and you can't walk on it, you know, for a week. or whatever. So Cammakers out

at least week 16. I think that makes Darrell Henderson an interesting flex play. And I'm going to say for him top 24 and that's exactly what it is like a flex play, borderline flex play type guy. I'm not going crazy because I know that the Rams are going to have a little bit of rotation

with Malcolm Brown in the backfield. But again, to go back to what we were talking about, I think he's, I think there's going to be like a run game, heavy matchup, slog like both teams are just going to be trying to control the clock. kind of shit. And honestly, the Seahawks have been okay on defense lately, but they've been middling against

running backs throughout the whole season. Going back to the last few games, McKissick, J.D. McKissick scored 21.2-half ppr. points against the Seahawks. Week 14, the Jets didn't do anything against the Seahawks, so that one, we're just kind of throwing that out. Week 13, Galman, 13 and a half points. Alfred Morris had 17. Week 12, the Seahawks did hold the Eagles running backs and check, but that offense was just

a complete mess at that point. That was before Hertz came in. Week 11, the Seahawks gave up 12.9 to Chase Edmonds and 14 to Kenyon Drake. Week 10 against the Rams, Malcolm Brown had 18.1. Henderson had 9.8 and Acres at 3.8. So the Seahawks have been giving up not like a huge amount of numbers to opposing running backs, but solid double digits to most of their starters. So I would say he's a pretty good, like I said, RB2-flex type play this week because Akers is out.

Well, I mean, has Henderson even been bad when he's gotten the full load? I mean, he's been good. I think he's a slasher guy. He's not the same, I guess, category as Acres, where you're giving him 30 touches a game, almost surely. I think they're going to probably have a two-man committee in this game. But he's more prone, in my opinion, to break off a big run or two. He's pretty good in the passing game. So I think he's still a good player.

And just because Akers is out, it's going to give him a bigger opportunity. So I feel pretty good about Henderson. All right, Craig, who's your gut call for the week? I think Chase Edmonds is startable this week. I'm saying he's going to score double-digit fantasy points. Chase Edmonds has been up and down. He's kind of been one of those guys that you never start all season, but then every week he kind of puts up like a levit on your bench.

But like you never start him. You never think about him. And then you look at him at the end of the year and you're like, oh, he was actually not that bad. So Kenyon Drake got kind of dinged up last week. He was in and out of the lineup. Edmonds out touched him 14 to 12. He had 66 yards in a touchdown.

I think Edmonds is better than Kenyon Drake. He looks better. He seems to always outperform him in games. They're playing the Niners who have a good run defense, but this game doesn't matter for them. Edmonds is the guy in the passing game. If anything, Edmonds will provide at least a nice 10-touch floor for you if you're debating, you know, some long shot running back or flex option.

Edmonds is like a little safe. He plays in the red zone with Kyler. I kind of like him this week. They're playing Saturday. So along those lines And with these gut calls We're not necessarily saying like venture stars And start these guys

If you had say like James Robinson Who may miss this week with an injury If you had Moster who is definitely out this week Acres who is out this week These are the types of guys that could potentially be a replacement for him And I like that call Totally and keep an eye on Drake's health Like even if he plays and he's dinged up

Maybe he won't receive a full workload But that's something that you kind of won't know Going into the game But like if it says like Drake questionable But then on Sunday it's like he will play I wouldn't let that deter you because I still think Edmonds will get his floor of like 10 touches, which he usually does every game. Could be more.

Yeah, on that note of just what D.K.K. was saying, we're not saying just bench your star, but there are certain people that come out each week and you need to replace them. I think that the main one for me this week is Tom Brady. That's kind of my call. I think you should, if you're someone who's kind of had a quarterback platoon this season, we have a few good players or a couple good players and one of them is Brady, you probably want Brady in the lineup this week. unless it's like Mahomes, Rogers,

I mean, the bucks are going against the lions. That secondary is in shambles. The team is kind of recovering from the Matt Patricia shambles. They're getting a little better, but now the secondaries. It's a great word. I like that word. They are mid shamble,

and I'm in mid rambal, but the lions are just getting rocked. Like we had Ryan Tannhill last week. He was one of our gut calls. Tannhill went off. And I'm not just going to Tanyhill again this week. I'm going back to the well against the lions. Like this is not,

this is one of those teams where, you can pick on the week, especially at this time of year in fantasy football. I'm sorry to say it. But the lions are like that little limping buffalo in the herd that the lions hunt down.

And that's kind of like what Tom Brady's going to do to them this week. I think that the bucking the fantasy herd here. I like it. Yeah. I actually like Brady a little less if Stafford can't play

because I'm not sure Chase Daniel can make it competitive. But I think Brady is going to end up being a top 10 quarterback. I think that if you have, I mean, if you have Stafford, if you,

I mean, there's a lot of quarterbacks we can do here. I think Brady's a really strong option. And I think the Bucks romp. And similarly, I'd play Gronk if for some reason you have a couple options at tight end. But I just think the Bucks have a good week against Detroit.

But do you guys, along the same lines, this is off the cuff. And I apologize for springing this on you. But like, what do you make of the receivers in this group? Do you have confidence in any of the three receivers? Yeah, three receivers with the Buccaneers? I think the Buc's offense is a collection of players that aren't really a team yet. I kind of expected them to be a little more cohesive. You know, you're three months into the season.

And I understand that in October, it was like, oh, Brady and Gronk are the only ones who really know what each other wants on third down or in the red zone. It still feels like that. It still feels like Brady went from Mike Evans and him went from they were 50-50, perfect versus completely on the wrong page, especially in back shoulder throws. Evans is just in the wrong spot sometimes. That one from 50-50, it's still like 70-30. Mike Evans is in the right spot versus the wrong spot. I just thought they'd be a little better off by now, quite honestly. Yeah, I think that's how everybody feels.

Yeah. Like, I feel like Evans is a starter. I'm going to start Evans. Oh, yeah. Pretty confidently. Godwin is where I start to waffle because his targets over the last two games, five and three. That worries me. You know what I mean?

Like, that's like a, he's obviously a very good player. And he's had two, he's had a touchdown last week to kind of salvage what would have otherwise been a pretty weak game. But with the way that Brady is targeting Antonio, Brown now, man. It just makes me worried. And plus he's been kind of a... Scottie Miller is getting involved. I don't know. Definitely Glensburg. Godwin's been a Glansburg for us.

Yeah, no, Godwin is one of those tougher calls, actually, because especially because this is such a good matchup, you'll feel pretty dumb if he goes off this week and you had him in your lineup for the bad ones and then keep him on your bench. He's just, yeah, he's just a poor-life guy for me. Especially because Brady wanted A-B on the team. Like, there's no two ways about it. Yeah.

All right, so who's your next gut, D.K. Wait, what's your benchmark for Brady? Oh, he's top-ton quarterback this week. Top 10. All right. So my second one is Savon Ahmed for the dolphins going up against the Raiders. And this is a little bit contingent. I just want to make the disclaimer.

Like if Miles Gaskin comes back, it changes things. But right now, Gaskin, as of Tuesday, he's on the COVID list. There's no indication whether he's going to come off of it or not. He did test positive for COVID. He's eligible to come off the list this week. But a lot of the time, honestly, we don't find out until like Saturday if these guys are coming off or I guess it's a weird week. Whenever they're playing,

they're playing on Saturday, so we probably won't find out until Friday. So monitor this situation, but I think if Gaskin does not come off the list, I really like Ackman this week as a flex running back. The last three games that he's been featured

as kind of like their lead guy, week 10, he had 15.5 points, half PPR, 85 yards a touchdown. Week 11, 9.9.9.5 p.r. He had 12 carries 43 yards, plus five catches and 31 yards. In week 15, last week, 19.2 half PPR had 23 carries,

122 yards, a touchdown. He had a two-point conversion on a hook and ladder. Actually, people were yelling at me that it wasn't a hook-and-ladder. Danny, did you see this play? I saw it. It was like a screen and ladder. It was so cool. Well, regardless, like, yeah, I guess technically it wasn't a hooker route.

Is that what people were... Oh, yeah, people all like, ooh, the hook-in-ladder. It's a hook-in-lateral. Yeah, anyways, it was a fun play. It was a fun play. It was a fun play. Yeah. He scored a freaking conversion on a lateral.

Like, that was sick. And that is not used enough. He came sprinting out of the backfield. They threw the ball to the slot receiver, whoever on the wing, and then the wing guy tossed it to come in. He went in for a 20- coaches are so hesitant to do the lateral play

because you're putting the asking skill players to put the ball in jeopardy. But my God, when it works, it is just, the defenses are just, they have no idea what just happened. It works every time. In addition to his usage,

which has been strong, they're playing at the Raiders this week who are one of the worst teams, against the run this whole year. They suck. Their third most points to opposing receivers and fantasy. In week 15, actually in week 15, they didn't do terribly. They had an Echler got had 9.9, Belage had 7.1.

But week 14, go back, they play the Colts. Jonathan Taylor dropped 30 on them. And Nahem Hines had nine and a half and half PPR. Week 13, Ty Johnson had 18.7. Week 12, Eto Smith had 15.5. In week 11, Edwards Allaire for this chiefs had 20. and Bell had 10. So they've been giving up pretty good numbers,

not only to one running back, but to two running backs typically. So I just like Occamette's chances to have a solid floor in this game. Again, the disclaimer is if Gasson comes back, it creates enough of uncertainty that I'd probably go in a different direction as to like the workload,

but if Gaskin is out, for sure, go with Ahmed. I like that. Craig, who's your next gut call? Well, I was, Gronk was a guy that I was going to mention, but you already kind of did it, so I'll move on a side. somebody else. I want to talk about Tyron Johnson again on the Chargers. So again, it's Tuesday, so it's kind of tough. This is contingent on the health of

Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. If only one of them is out, I think Tyron Johnson is a legitimate play. He's had 14 and 13 points in the last two weeks. He's had a touchdown in each of them. He gets consistent targets. He's, as D.K. said, he's like a big athlete who's a good prospect. And they're playing Denver, who's literally their whole defensive back regime is out. Josh Allen just tore him up last week. I think Herbert is on hardcore rookie of the year watch and is just trying to sling it. Because Justin Jefferson is doing the same thing.

But especially if Keenan Allen is out, Mike Williams played like 28 snaps last week and he's like struggling through his back injury. But they've had 10 days to rest. But if Tyrone Johnson is on your bench, as he is mine, check in, you know, Thursday, Friday and see how the health is of those guys because if they're iffy, I think Ty Johnson's a good play. I was looking at his grades on PFF or really.

strong too. Like, he's played well. So he's, yeah, he's kind of an interesting guy in like the dynasty world, too, to kind of keep in mind. Yeah. My second good for this week is, I think you should stream Austin Hooper if you've been streaming tight ends. If you, or like, if Mike Giske, we don't know if Mike

Kisicki's going to play this week. So however that works out, if you had Ebron, if you had Gisiki and he doesn't go, I think Austin Hooper is going to be a top 13 tight end. I was going to go top 12, but 13's my lucky number. And also, you know that some random tight end like Dan Arnold's going to end up being like top five.

Dan Arnold. On the off season, we're going to have a Dan Arnold conversation. Dan Arnold. No, but I just think Austin Hooper. Yeah.

He sounds, no, Dan Arnold is, well, should we be making fun of a Dan if we're two Danis? We kind of, I mean,

we're kind of pretty prejudiced against Dan's. I mean, I feel like we can. We're uniquely qualified to make fun of Dan's. In this world, there are only Dan's and not Dan's.

So, I was Dan, I was Dan for a large part of my life. Is that right? Yeah. Why did you switch to Danny? I feel like usually it goes the other way. It was kind of a joke. Yeah, it's because I was getting older, and my dad, it was like, he just doesn't like his name.

His name is Rich, and so he tried to get people to call him Rick, and it didn't take. You can ever start it yourself. I know, and it was like, this is weird. I don't want to call you that, and it just didn't really work out for him. And so I thought it was funny, and I started calling myself Danny, and everyone was like, no, we're not doing that. That's stupid. Why are you doing that? But I did it long enough.

and like I was consistent enough about it like keeping this joke going that it just stuck. Wait, so you just kept calling yourself Danny as a bit and then we all call you Danny Kelly? Yes, it was a big to start. Yeah. The other thing, the other part that played a big part and it is like I, when I first started writing about football,

I went by Danny online. So like a lot of people that I like came into my life via like my career started just knew me as Danny so like everyone was finally just like fine we'll call you Danny but some people still call me Dan So you gave yourself the name Danny

So by the rule that we all agree on it was tongue and cheek Yeah But the rule that we all agree on Which is no one can give themselves a nickname Means that Craig and I could start calling you Dan Kelly If you want Dan I would like to stipulate This was a joke I wasn't actually trying

To get people to call me Danny It was as a joke Wow I wasn't like trying to make up a new nickname. This is like your origin story. This is unbelievable. All right. I don't remember. I was going to talk about Austin Hooper. I feel like I've told. I feel like I've told you this before. Hi Fitz. It's funny that you're so shocked by this because I'm pretty sure I've told this story before. Yeah, I probably forgot. Yeah. Let's get back to you touting my nemesis.

Yeah, Austin Hooper. Yeah, yeah, two origin stories here. Anyway, it's really simple. The Browns are playing the Jets. The Jets are particularly suck against tight ends. Don't be fooled by the Rams game. The Jets have given up the most receiving yards to the tight end. ends. They've given up the most receiving touchdowns to tight ends. Austin who prepared a touchdown last week. He got more involved. He had four or five targets, four or five catches. If you're going to roll the dice on a tight end

streaming for this week, roll it against a good tight end who's in a good offense, who will probably romp against the league's worst defense defending tight ends. It's really simple. And also, he beat up Craig once playing basketball. I don't remember the story. He remembers at this point. I remember gave Craig a wedgy and

was a swirl. Shubbed him in a locker. This is libel. This is libel. No. Lival's when it's written. This is slander. Whatever. There's no altercation. You definitely are that guy

who's like, technically that's wrong. What? Are you like with the law? Oh my God. No, you know, this is just a casual conversation.

I feel like you don't need to correct people. That's not how you make friends. There was no altercation. So many friends. Craig has so many friends by never correcting people. So many.

I hardly have time to do this podcast. I'm always in their friends. Except during the pandemic. Okay. I'm being good. You know Craig's not of his real name? He was just Dan, he started

about going like Craig as a bit. There was no altercation. He was just like, you know, kind of a shitty guy to play sports with. That's all. And I'm sure the Browns could occur. We'll see. I'll have to ask.

No, he'll do great for you this week. Just a shitty guy to play sports with. Anyway, Austin Hooper, top 13 tight end. Book it. And if not, we'll shove him in a locker. He looked a little sluggish after the appendectomy.

The same. Doesn't look very conditioned. He looks kind of thick. He put on some LBs during his appendectomy? Yeah, he's just laying in bed for a week. Craig's, like, secret life goal is to just be more famous than Austin Hooper at his 10-year high school reunion. Brag to the people that made fun of you in high school, like Austin Hooper. We didn't go to the same high school.

We only went to middle school. I know, but I'm rewriting history. If you want to be Mr. Technical, Danny. Technically, we only went to middle school. Can I tell a funny story about one of my friends in his high school reunion, by the way? Sure. I'm not going to say his name because it's hilarious, but he, so. He went to his 10-year high school reunion,

and he had literally just broken up with his girlfriend, and he was moving across country. So as he was driving across country, he stopped and went to his high school reunion. And at the time, he had just broken up his girlfriend. He didn't have a job, and he was literally living in his car. And I was just like, imagine. Maybe skip that one.

Imagine, like, talking to people at your high school reunion. So what are you doing? you know, nothing, nothing really. So where are you living? He's like, just outside that door? Parking spot 11? I mean, he probably hates me right now. Because I bring this up every chance I can.

It's literally the funniest story, I think, in the world. Ten-year high school reunion. They got to make a movie about this. Yeah, can we have Breakfast Club 10 years later? I've always wanted to see what that movie would have lunch club. We're just off the rails here. Is it bold time? That's a bold story.

Bold to go to your 10-year reunion of living in your car and bold time for bold predictions? I respect it. Yes. All right. Are these the last bold predictions of the regular season? Well, the playoffs. Yeah, the fantasy playoffs.

So, okay, I got two. I like to cheat a little bit on this. The first one, and since I hit on this last week, I'm just going to run it right back. Leonard Fernette against the Lions. Lions are the worst. Man, this is not bold whatsoever. Ronald Jones is not going to play.

Have you seen Leonard Fernette run the ball? he's like starting running back on the box you're going to say he's going to be good what are you saying about Leonard Frenet well fine put it we'll put this into the guts anyways my Rojo is not back this week he's out so Leonard Frenet he's a good flex okay fine

oh my god that was gonna be your bold my god all of the analysts are like he's a fringe RB1 because it's not a bold prediction yeah geez all right fine honestly I was a little I was a little wondering if you guys were going to give me shit for Tom Brady top 10 because as I was thinking about it

I was like probably should just the top seven but I got away with it. When we get into last week's predictions when we look back at them I look at all your guys is they're all so much easier than mine. Mine are hardcore and they never work out. Is that how you weren't friends? Your guys are so easy. You're like, I think Brian Tanahill will be good. It's like what is this?

We're trying to help people make actual sit-start decisions not tell them to put stupid players in their lineup, Craig. No, you're telling people to start people they've already are going to start because it's Ryan Tannhill and Tom Brady. No, these are real life things. I said Jeff Wilson to be a top 10 running back for my bold. You also said JK. Both of you said J.K. Dobbins.

He said D'Andre Swift. These guys are all people you're starting anyway. They're fringe. They're fringe. No, they're not. Marvin Jones, 10 plus versus Tampa Bay. How about that? That's my bold.

Number one, we have to kind of wait and see what happens to Stafford. Stafford's like the toughest player in the NFL potentially, so I think he'll probably end up playing. But if the Lions decide to kind of like sit him down for the rest of the season, that could change things. But Jones's average 10 targets a game over his last six games. He's eighth in weighted opportunity rating over the last six games. 27% target share in that stretch.

He has two 20 plus games in that stretch. And then his other two were 6.8 and 7.8. So, you know, it's not a terrible floor either. So I think there's some upside here. He's the number one guy on that offense. Holiday's not coming back. Why are you smirking about that? He is smirking.

I don't know he's going to say it, but he's so smirking at that. He doesn't think it's bold at all. Greg thinks you've got four games. guts. There is a cloud over this podcast right now. Fine. Clay is so hardcore judging D.K. Here, Craig. Here's one that will make you happy. Play Rashad Penny. He's your RV2 this week.

No, I think to be clear, there's two things going on. Craig is calling out D.K.'s gut calls as not bold. They're not supposed to be bold. They're just, what do you think is going to happen to your gut? And then D.K. also came to this episode with four gut calls. And also, there is an issue is we let D.K. get away with the Leonard Fournette as a bold one last week. and that we let that one slide. And I could tell that that is some residual carryover to this week.

I see it in great eyes. The dude was inactive the week before. We didn't know who was even going to play. I think I'm just bitter looking back at last week's predictions. Like, God, all there's hit. And I'm like, well, it's Ryan Tannahill, J.K. Dobbins, and Dandre Swift.

Of course it hit. He said like 10 points each. The statute of limitations I'm bitching about this is over. We almost made it the full season without a full-fledged argument on the podcast. Oh, we were this close. You guys are going to love my bold.

It's fucking random as hell. Just a bit outside. All right. So Marvin Jones, 10 points? My bold, since we're bitching about last week. I don't like your tone, Craig. All right. So Mario Jones, 10 points.

All right. Well, anyway, since we're bitching about last week's things, I'm running back by Jeff Wilson thing. I said it'd be a top 10 running back last week for my bold. He wasn't. He was, he had 12 points. He was outside the top 25. But he had 12 points.

I'm running it back. Jeff Wilson, top 10, running back again. Rahim Moster is on injured reserve. And so Jeff Wilson's going to get the bulk of carries. I think that Jeff Wilson's play him. He's going to be great. Agreed. Go Craig giving me crap.

How's Gabe Davis doing for you, Craig? Mine is going to be. D.K. liked him, too. Didn't we all have Gabe Davis? Gabe Dave? All right. Mine is... Yeah, we like Gabe Davis.

Okay, so my idea for this was like, you know, I went with, like, Chase Edmins, Ty Johnson. Like, I want people who are struggling. and are like sifting through the waiver wire to find people, you know, or like the guy at the bottom of your bench, should I start them? So this is for all my dudes out here

in 14 team and 16 team leagues. This is my bold's coming for you guys. If you're in the championship, you got Julio, you got whoever, Juju sucks. Like, this is what you're doing. If you really are desperate, Lil Jordan Humphrey on the Saints.

Oh my God, dude. No wonder you were giving us shit. What the fuck are you talking about? This is a, isn't this bold prediction? Lil and Jordan Humphrey? Listen. Is this the practice squad guy? Yeah.

Listen, first of all, his name deced you because he's not so little. He's 6-4-2-10. He was an absolute stud at Texas. His junior year, he had like 1,200 yards, nine touchdowns. He was really good. Last week he had a touchdown because the only receivers in the Saints are Emmanuel Sanders in this guy now. Michael Thomas is gone.

Deonté Harris is on IR. Marquez Calloway is on IR. He came in after Trey Quint Smith went down, scored a touchdown at four targets. He's the biggest target on the Saints who can run. I'm just saying this could be the random guy this week who has 80 yards in a touchdown against the shitty Viking secondary. I really hope someone starts Lil Jordan Humphrey in their championship weekend. Tell us if you do. If this happened, if little Jordan Humphrey gets 80 yards at a touchdown,

I think we have to really seriously consider naming this to Craig. Craig Deceit football podcast. Craig Casey. All right, Craig, so circling back to your little Jordan Humphrey pick here. What is your, what's your benchmark for him? Over seven over seven have PPR points.

D.K., what do you know about? After all that! What do you know about little Jordan Humphrey, D.K? I know enough about him to think this is a very intriguing. To me, he's like a good dynasty stash. I probably wouldn't be starting him this week if I was in the championship.

I do think this is, awesome as a bold, bold thing. And honestly, to be like, to look at what the Saints are doing, a guy named Joanne Johnson was running routes for them this last week. You know, they're kind of, like you said, they're down to the drags of their receiver position. Humphrey is a big guy with a huge catch radius. The Saints seem to like these guys, you know, especially running down the seam for

Drew Brees where you can see these guys, you know, open up or whatever. He's a red zone threat. He probably, he maybe would have been better off coming like a tight end. Maybe he'll turn into a tight end, gain 20 pounds and turn into a tight end for them. But this isn't just for the championship, people. What if you're playing for third? What if you're just trying not to get last in your toilet bowl? What level of league are you starting little Jordan Humphrey in?

Would you start a 12-teen team league? I said 14 or 16. I mean, this dude might be the starting wide receiver for the Saints alongside Emmanuel Sanders. I'm just saying. That's all I'm saying. If Lil Jordan Humphrey goes off, this is going to be the greatest prediction ever made on this podcast. I could seem catching a touchdown for like six yards, which Drewbee's last week.

But, wow, that was a journey we just had. I don't agree with it, but I like it. It's a bold prediction. Much more bold than my Marvin Jones one. Let's recap last week. I'm saying we'll have only three less points than you said Marvin Jones one. That's a good point. Love it.

Point. Okay. We already recapped all these freaking ones from last week. But at this point, I said, what did I say? I said, Jake Dobbins will be top 20 running back, correct? I said Ryan Tannels were starting to be a top 10 quarterback. That was correct. 37.

He had 37 points. He had a lot of points. Ridiculous. We love the points. Yeah. And I said Jeff Wilson be a top 10 running back. And that was wrong. But he did have 12 points.

So if you flexed him, hopefully he worked out for you. Yeah. Deke, how did you do, which in your incredibly weak and meager predictions, according to Craig? Your frail, frail, frail predictions. Meager is an underused word. I had Dandre Swift, 12 plus. He had 20. He was the RB9, so that was a hit.

J.K. Dobbins was my other one on there, and Hyphins already said that. And then I had Donovan People Jones. This is actually kind of a little Jordan Humphrey-style one. He had seven points. Did not hit the benchmark of 10, but he wasn't a complete best. That should have been your bold. I know, right?

All this, that whole argument happened because Craig forgot T.K. talked about Donovan People's Jones last week. Well, it was his gut. It's all out of whack. Make it you're bold. My bold was Lenny Ford's 10 plus, half Pee, are you at 20 so hit on that one too but Craig just doesn't think any of these are hard enough so honestly that's all that whole conversation happened because you should have just had letty as a gut

and people's Jones is appalled and none of that honestly maybe are we sure that I didn't I'm actually looking at my doc from last week now donovan people Jones was my extra bold it was a bonus bold so all of this is for nothing this was all based on a slight error yeah someone forgot to hit command B on the prediction and now it's all it's all of it's all over. We were word for you. I'm just saying both of you guys are the smartest guys not in this platoon.

You're just whipping out, taking right outside this pitoon. We're going to get Craig bounced that of the spatoon. Okay. Who's that? Craig, what are your glorious predictions from last week? I said Gabriel Davis would be a top 30 wide receiver.

He was not. He had 2.7 points. It was a massive disappointment. I'm sorry, everybody. My other gut was that Kendrick Bourne would have over eight fantasy points. That was correct. He scored 16 and a half on a crazy Hail Mary at the end of the game. You nailed it.

You nailed that. Like your prediction of Crazy Hill Mary at the end of the game. Yeah. So I hit that right. And then Irv Smith, I said it would be a top seven tight end. He was not. He was the tight end 27. He dropped a touchdown.

So I think that would have been closer. Yeah, that sucks. But right in, you know, in spirit, it was all right. But like, you know, I have Kendrick. Born is my gut. You guys have J.K. Dobbins. That'll be the new thing. Did you guys win your fantasy title?

It's like, in spirit. Spirit. Craig is like trying to. get into the salty spatoon so you can stay there all offseason. I see what's happening right here. It's like a hostile takeover of the spittoon. This is like a boardroom meeting where they're informing you. This is like what they did at Zucker or Zuckerberg did to Edward Savenan in the social network. Like you just show up one day and you're like, I own this pitoon now. We diluted what's happening here. Diluted your spatoon shares. Okay, let's go in a million

dollar lineup before we kill each other. Every Friday we're making a Fandul DFS lineup. We're playing for a million dollars. It's actually $300,000 now. It's different. But anyway, We're still trying to make a million dollars a week or a third of a million, whatever. The year I turned 26 as the head of my own brokerage firm, I made $49 million, which really pissed me off because it was three shy of a million a week. Did we win a million?

We won $9 last week. We won nine. That's pretty good. Do we break even on the year or no? We're still down. We're up. We are up. Oh, nice.

We are up. It is green. You know, we can't disclose the, the real number up for, you know, what is it? Pride, but we're up. For pride reasons. For credibility reasons. It's illegal, but it's pride.

Okay. Last week went pretty well. We had Tan Hill, Derek Henry, Jeff Wilson, Jefferson, Alan Robinson, Brandon Ayuk, Irv Smith, who was awful, Tony Pollard. We swapped in Tony Pollard on Sunday, which really is the reason we did well. And then the Pats,

because once Zeke was out, we swapped in Tony Pollard. All right, this week's lineup, this is me. I pushed for this. Hyfitz put this in here and Craig and I both have questions. I pushed for this.

Our lineup this week is Daniel Jones, quarterback, Jonathan Taylor at running back, Miles Sanders at running back, Marquis Brown at wide receiver, Jarvis Landjardt wide receiver, T.Y Hilton,

and then we have Jack Doyle, All-Faitha, tight end, AJ Green at receiver, and the Ravens defense. What do you guys think? I see what's happening. Yeah, see, I figured it out too. This is just our,

Burn Book line it. I said, so we do this every week, and I sent this in the Slack channel, and you guys were like, what are you doing? And I was like, I was like, I was like, Daniel Jones against the Ravens. Do you know something that we don't know? I decided that week 16. We have $4,400 remaining. I decided it's week 16, and we have to one time put the burn book as a DFS lineup.

Okay, but didn't we just burn Russell Wilson and Tyler Lockett? Can we put them in there? And let's do that. Okay, that's a good point. Okay, we'll put Russell Wilson and tire lock in it instead. So we can remove, obviously, Daniel Jones. Yeah, we'll get rid of Daniel,

we have plenty of money to do it. Yeah, we'll get rid of Daniel Jones. We get rid of AJ Green instead. And AJ Green, yeah. Yeah, we're playing the bird book as a DFS lineup for sure. I like it. This is going to be fun,

and it would be as like high comedy if this wins this money. Oh, it would be glorious. It would be jubilation. It would be justification for, like, burning fantasy players. Like, we just, we start, did we make a whole factory out of it?

Okay, so we're going to win. We'll only win 300K though, but it's all right. We'll split it. It'll be great. Okay. All right. Quick German word update from D.K. Yes.

We continue to get very informative updates from our German listeners. This one is an update on the word in German that means you're rooting for and against a player in two different matchups. And I'm going to butcher this again. So, Zvikmule. I think it's pronounced. Zvikmulee? Zvikmule. I think that's good.

Like we know the answer. I don't know. Craig, or hyphids. Well, Craig, Horubeck, isn't that a German word? Isn't that a German name? Yes, but I mean. No, you don't know it. Okay.

If that qualifies me, then I'm screwed. Anyway, that was from Gabriel and Munchin. So thank you for that. Nice. Thanks, Gabriel. Okay, I got one fun fact to get us out of here. Yes. This is from my friend, Chris. Okay.

He texted me this maybe four days ago out of the blue, and it just made me laugh. literally had not texted the entire day, and then I just got this. There was no intro. Charles Darwin had a pet tortoise that died in 2006. Oh, my God. Oh, my God. That's a fun fact. Is that true?

I don't know. Yes, it's true. Steve Irwin took care of it. Wow. Steve Irwin was taking care of Charles Darwin. It was 186 when it died. Jesus. That's one of my favorite fun facts you've ever had of the show.

For a little context, Charles Darwin died in 1882. It died in 2006. It's like there were like 40-something states at the time. Oh, my God. It's so much better that the tortoise died in the 2000s because if it was in the 90s, it wouldn't have hit as hard, but 0-60s, it's so funny. sixth. That's when Spotify was founded.

That's like Nancy Pelosi was Speaker of the House the first time. TORTs is the limit. All right. Let's get the hell out of here. This was a cathartic episode, I think, for everyone, except that tortoise. R. AP. Rest in peace.

All right. Thank you, Craig. Thank you, D.K. Thank you to everyone for listening through this. Thank you to Charles Darwin. You did a lot. We appreciate it. Best of luck to everyone in your fantasy championships.

And, of course, thank you, Lord. Lauren. Good luck in the championship, Lauren. Thank you, Christina Aguilera. Ooh, Aguilera. Nice. There you go. We'll see you guys on Monday. And happy holidays to everybody.