The Ringer NFL Show - 2022 Award Winners

Episode Date: August 31, 2022

Sheil, Nora and Ben pick their award winners for the upcoming season.  Hosts: Sheil Kapadia, Ben Solak and Nora Princiotti  Associate Producer: Stefan Anderson Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hello, friends, and welcome to a golf podcast unlike any other. This is Fairway Rowland on the Ringer podcast network. I am your starter. Joe House every week on Fairway Rowland. It is myself and our PGA tour correspondent on the ground, Nathan Hubbard talking all things, professional golf, amateur golf, amateur betting, professional betting, amateur drinking, professional drinking by Birdie Buddies.

If you want to hit them straight out there, please check out Fairway Rowland every week. Available on Spotify. Welcome to The Ringer NFL show. I'm Nora Pinsiati. I am here today with Shield Capadia and Benjamin Solac. How are you two wonderful men doing? It's very good to see you. I haven't seen either one of you in quite some time.

It's good to be here. I'm doing well. I feel like, you know, I'm like the old uncle of the Ringer NFL show, but when I woke up and saw that Ben twisted his ankle, getting out of bed, I felt good about my role and my status on the show. So, yeah, things are going well for me.

I don't know about Ben. Currently standing 80, 20 weight on my right foot. Thanks for checking in. Loving it. Living life, it's great. Love to be an adult. Sometimes you got to play hurt. Maybe we're previewing some comeback player of the year potential with

Ben and his ankle. But we're going to do some superlatives today. MVP, offensive player of the year, some of the rookie stuff, coach of the year. We're going to go through them. Let's get to it. Should we start with MVP, or should we save kind of the best for last?

I think we should start with it. She'll and I did a pod about MVP odds, and we both picked the same dude at the top. And so I feel like the reveal is not going to be a huge reveal for regular ringer NFL show listeners. So Justin Herbert hours, Bibi. It's great. It's great.

Why don't, I hope everybody listened to that pot. It was fantastic and actually just didn't just include, right? Your guys' top picks and had some sleepers, some sort of middle value candidates. But Sheal, why don't you walk us through the case that you both felt so good about here for MVP? Yeah, I think, I mean, looking at MVP, it usually comes down to quarterback. monstrous numbers and team success. And so he's a quarterback. I think he's going to put up monstrous numbers.

I mean, over 5,000 yards last year. And if you look at Aaron Rogers the last two years, I think he's been under like 4,300 yards. So even if you think Herbert's going to slip a little bit in terms of overall attempts and passing yards, he's still going to be in that range. And then it just comes down to who do you think is going to win the AFC West? I mean, if you think it's the Chiefs,

then you probably should not pick Justin Herbert. If you think it's the Broncos or the Raiders, same thing. I've got the Chargers. This will, of course, not come back to bite me later in the season. But I've got them winning the AFC West. And so if they can win like 12, 12 games, if they can win that division, he's going to put up monster numbers. I mean, he's 24 years old.

It's crazy how much he's already accomplished at this age. He's going to win an MVP at some point. He's the bright new shiny toy, I think, as Solac called him in the last episode. So there's that newness factor. And so that that's a newness factor. So that's the case, I think, for Herbert. And to that point, Bill's fans got mad at me. They were like, well, it's Josh Allen.

You win the division, put up a lot of stats, never won MVP. It's like, yeah, the fact that, like, that brushed past my mind, I didn't like remember right away, oh, Josh Allen hasn't won an MVP is, case in point, he is not the shiny new toy, right? MVP is a narrative award. I would love Fridge VA who is the most valuable player award. It's not. It's who seems like, who vibes as if.

what generally looks like the most valuable player, kind of who do we want to highlight in terms of generating all this bluster? And Josh Allen would be absolutely deserving of an MVP award. But if Alan and Herbert have analogous seasons and analogous records, and they're both, you know, obviously both one season in their conference or in the same conference, they're both shooting for the same thing. Like if they are roughly the same,

the Herbert hype train already has too much steam. I don't, like, Alan doesn't, isn't going to get, I think, a narrative bump the way that Herbert would kind of feel like. And now in his third season, they've officially won the division, they made the playoffs. He's resuscitated the Chargers. He saved them from their playoff curse, the MVP. So you have to remember, MVP is a narrative award. And right now, the narrative juice belongs to Herbert.

Disagree. I chose Josh Allen. Yeah. So there you go. So, okay, I'm with you on, if the Chargers win that division, I think Justin Herbert's winning that award. I think that's a very safe if then. I don't think they're winning that division. It's just too hard for me to get over the chief's hump.

I think the bills are very clearly winning that division. And I do think, first of all, it did cross my mind that Josh Allen has never won an MVP. That to me had a little bit of narrative weight. Two, while I worry a little bit about how things will go without Brian Dable, I think that gives him a narrative bump where there's still a totally more than reasonable amount of continuity on the staff, on the roster. But if he's great this year, and if they're really good, and if they're rolling and, you know, we're watching montages of crazy throws and scrambles and Josh Allen doing all sorts of Josh Allen stuff. And there's all sorts of narrative firepower to, oh, my God, if he'd just

gotten a chance to get the ball back against the chiefs, like, this is really Josh Allen's best chance to get back there and do it. I think he will get a lot of that credit. I think he will get a lot of that credit. I think that will have a lot of narrative weight and firepower. So both as a semi-cumulative, like, not Lifetime Achievement Award, because Josh Allen is still very young, but a slightly aggregated he deserves it, plus the division situation, plus losing table. I think, I think Josh Allen could be like a darling. That said, factored into that is that I don't. think that the Chargers are not my place in that division. So if that were different, I might agree with you.

Yeah. It's kind of like, in terms of who I expect to be the leading horse in MVP race, it's the quarterback of the winning team of the AFC West, unless it's the Chiefs, in which case Mahomes, you know, kind of whatever the word is, we're tired or something. Mahomes' boredom will then lead to kind of like maybe other conversations. But to me like that, the quarterback winner of the AFC West, I expect to be the Chargers, whoever you expect,

that guy's going to have so, so much use. Like, Russ as well, never won MVP, never even got to vote. Like, that's still floating around there as well. Am I hearing Derek Carr MVP buzz? Absolutely. At like 9 o'clock on a Wednesday morning. Okay, okay, okay, okay. I tell you, Raiders beat out the chiefs, the chargers, and the Broncos to win the division.

Oh, totally. Is there a world in which that happens and Derek Carr isn't MVP? No. How good of a season are we prognosticated for Josh Jacobs right now? Yeah, that's got to be the case. I was ready to just answer Is there a world in which that happens? And I was ready to say no

before you even finish the rest of the statement there. I'm with you, I'm with you, Shil. I think Alan is the favorite, I think if you just look at Bandwool or whatever. Because Nora, I think you made a good point. The chances that they are the number one seed are greater than the chances that any other team

is the number one seed in the AFC. And so if they're winning 12 or 13 games, he's going to be the reason why. And so I kind of disagree with Solek with the narrative. I think there will be a fine narrative around Josh Allen. It's like the playoffs last year, nine touchdowns, no interceptions, played pretty much two perfect games. And now he follows it up and they look like the best team in the NFL.

They change offensive coordinators. It doesn't matter. He's putting the team on. When you watch him, it's like he's putting the team on his back. And so I think he'll be fine there. I think those are the two guys I was really debating between. Well, so let's do offensive player of the year because what I love about offensive player of the year is it can be like a freebie for your, the MVP pick that you didn't make.

And I'll spoil mine. I put Justin Herbert as offensive player at the year. Because I think he's going to have a monster season, but I'm not ready to commit to getting over the hump in that division. And I think that would not allow him to win MVP, but there's so much, like, we want to crown Justin Herbert. We want to do it so badly. And even though sometimes that award goes to a position player,

and sometimes that's a good way to acknowledge an incredible season from someone who doesn't play quarterback. I kind of think Herbie would have the juice for it. Ben, who was your offensive player of the year pick? Yeah, so offensive player of the year falls into two categories, right? It is quarterback who could have, perhaps should have won MVP award. However, there was also another quarterback who also won the MVP award, so we got to give this guy something called that the Matt Ryan in 2016, Patrick Holmes in 2018, Cam Newton in 2015, or skill position player who sets record, which is what we've seen in the last three years, Cooper Cup won the Triple Crown receiving in 2021,

Derek Henry, 2,000 rushing yards in 2020, and then Michael Thomas, who caught like 80% of his passes in 2019. So very cool stat skill position, if and only if there aren't two quarterbacks who equally deserve the MVP award. That's kind of how we parse this out. I think, like, Alan is a reasonable case.

I think that you'd take, you know, booms, limoire. There's just so many quarterbacks that recently could win the award. To me, when I look at skill position guy who's going to set a record, I look to Jonathan Taylor, who last year, the MVP case around Taylor

was irritating last year because he was incredible. He was the main reason the offense was working. He was being used at a high volume against heavy boxes and still ripping off explosive runs. He was more involved in the passing game. He was all that in a bag of chips.

And then he had a five touchdown game. And it was like, whoa, we should do Jonathan Taylor MVP hype. that's so like it can't it's not just touchdowns you can't oh he scored a lot here we go he was so deserving of that conversation beforehand derrick henry's been deserving of MVP conversation for multiple years and it's just he didn't rip off a five touchdown game so he couldn't talk about it so it's a little bit of like a we'll never talk about a running back as an MVP so if a guy has an incredible season he's just going to get shooed into the offensive player of the year conversation but taylor was neck and neck with cup last year in this conversation

Cup kind of jumped out week 17, week 18, got that triple crown, finished that work. But Taylor was looking at knocking on the door of a 2000 year out season. Taylor was knocking on the door of a 20 touchdown season. I think both of those things are still within range for Taylor. And so to me, I know that Matt Ryan in the building makes the quarterback play feel more competent.

And accordingly, we think the Colts are going to pass more. But the impression that I get from what they still want to be on offense is Taylor driven, run heavy, and then when we pass, were just more effective. I think that leads to more scoring drive. I think that leads to more fourth quarters where they're not trailing, which just leads to more opportunities for Taylor

to put up your outs and put up touchdowns. So Taylor was in this conversation last year. I have no reason to believe he's going to slow down. The offense's still great. I think the offense is going to be better writ large because he's the feature part of the offense, that'll benefit him. I think that offense will be better writ large too,

but they're also, I mean, they are one wide receiver injury away from, you really got to rely on this running game, no matter how well Matt Ryan's playing. in some ways, like, that's got to be a... Does anybody know the Colts' highest paid receiver? Highest pay... Is he still on the roster?

Yeah. Yeah. Like, as a technicality or... No, no, no. No, I'm talking about, like, currently on the roster, who is making the most money this season? Alex Pierce? Nora?

I mean, it can't be Pittman. It's Ashton Doolin. One year, $2.4 million contract, baby? It's more than Pittman. It's more than Pippman. More than Paris Campbell. None of them were first round picks, and they have no other second contract guys because TY's gone.

And tight end is Moe Alley Cox and Jolani Woods. Ashton Doolin, all right? The linchpin of the passing game, as told by contract value. Okay. The Colts, I mean, they have, what, the third easiest schedule, I think. So, yeah, if they have leads in the fourth quarter and they're giving him the ball, I just do worry a little bit about the, if the volume comes down a little bit from last year, given how run heavy they were, specifically the second half of the season, when they were like,

we are not going to put the ball in Carson Wentz's hands to win these games. And so that would be my only concern. I hate this award. It's like, you guys were defining it and I'm like, I don't even know what this is. I just look at it as the best non-quarterback offensive player. I know that's not what history would always say. But I went with Justin Jefferson. You know, could Justin Jefferson have like a Cooper Cup-esque year this year where he wins the triple crown or whatever with the receptions receiving yards touchdowns. He's going to get a bunch of targets. I know he was like top five last year. He could certainly get that again. And so, you know, he had 1,600 yards last year. So it's not like I'm asking him to make some monumental leap. And so I went with Jefferson just kind of out

of default here. Can I throw one extra out here and see how you guys feel about it? I couldn't commit to this. I don't think it's likely enough for a number of reasons. One, such a high bar to clear to questions about just like what's going on there. Any chance for Debo Samuel? I thought about Debo. I absolutely thought about Debo. The thing for me is I don't know how much he's going to carry the football again

because that was the whole contract dispute. He signed it and whatever. But if we get 18 games, which is really unlikely because of like injuries and also there should be healthier. But if we get 18 games of the last four to six games of Debo last year, he's off at the player of the year. absolutely he's the coolest player ever

and he's going to score a bajillion touchdowns and it's the bomb. And it's I mean and presumably Cooper Cup is not doing exactly the same like I agree with you that there's a path there just wanted to throw it out. I went with Herbie. All right. Ben, let's get your defensive player of the year.

Yeah, defensive player of the year. Much like defensive rookie of the year, I would love to say that we give this award to like very talented players who do good job. So really we give it to guys who play near the ball who do a lot of things, right? Aaron Donald, notwithstanding, we tend to reward counting stats. We've done it with JJ Watt in a couple of seasons, which obviously Watt was incredible and he deserved it. Luke Kikley, we had T.Rall Suggs.

Only two corners have won this award since 2005. It was Charles Woodson in 2009, and then it was Defon Gilmore in 2019. We got to remember, Chauvin DeG's had 10 interceptions last year, and we were like, yeah, T.J. Watt is the defensive player of the year. There's really like nothing a corner can do counting-wise to beat out a as productive as expected, defensive line. So when we go through the list and we look for names

that probably should be on here in Arndt, Miles Garrett is the one that stands out to me. Garrett's not won a defensive player of the year award yet in his career. There was the time at which it seemed like he and T.J. Watt both coming out of that class were kind of neck and neck. I think over the last couple seasons, we've seen Watt declare himself as the better player.

Watt was third in defensive player of the voting two years ago, second last year, and then he won it this past season. Miles Garrett's been also in the time. top three the entire time. Defensive player of the year tends to be a little bit of a lifetime achievement award when a Donald or a JJ Watt doesn't win it. It kind of goes to who's the guy who's been around and me,

Gareth, the guy has been around. Wait, did you say, did you say T.J. Watt has declared himself as the better player over Miles Garrett? Yeah. Really? I don't know. I don't agree with that.

That's counting stats. Watt has been more productive per 16 games since pretty much they stepped into the league. Yeah, but you were just ripping people for going with the counting stats. So that's what you're going with. I mean, if you pulled two separate things. Hold on. If you pulled 32 GMs right now and said you could have Miles Garrett or T.J. Watt for the exact same price. Do you think more GMs would take T.J. Watt over Miles Garrett. I do not.

Yeah, I do. I don't think it would be like 30 to two, but I do. Why? Firstly, you got to remember. GMs don't, like, GMs care less about talent that we think and more about like, You're going to the locker room guy as a behavior. I was going to keep him prepared in the off season. That's true. 32 people who, that's GM voice.

That should be a segment, Nora. I don't know if we can do shorts with this, but I would do after we're done this episode, if we want to do five minutes with GM voice, I would be in on that. All right, let me rephrase that. I want to have Ben, pray, Paul Billi-Bellecheck. 32 NFL people whose opinions you trust.

I'll rephrase it that one. Yeah. I think you'd get like 19, doing math to 13, right? 18 to 14, you'd get Watt over Garrett. I don't think we would have been there a year ago, but at this, like, at this, like, what one football game so the Steelers single-handedly last year? I'll never forget that Chargers game

and Watt just deciding to keep the Steelers in the game for four quarters. The Steelers were the better football team at, or excuse me, the Chargers were a better football team at every single position, except for that guy lined up against their tackles. And it was a one-score game in the four, fourth quarter. The consistent level of dominance, ball production batting passes, ball production in the running game, forced fumbles when, when sacking the quarterback. Like, Watt does everything. So, so, so, so very well. And also, like, I think a big part of this is certainly draft

capital. Garrett was the unquestioned 1-1. T.J. was the 130 in that draft. It's not like, you know, T.J. was 1-5, right? He was, like, a late, late, first round pick. And then also, he's got the JJ shadow that he's got to get out of. But if you look at at Tate, counting stats or advanced stats over the last two to three seasons. There's been no edge rush and more productive than TJ Y. And to me that, to me that we're getting there in terms of public acceptance. Anyway, Miles Gares is going to win the award because he hasn't yet and I kind of wanted to shout him out. Because he's worse than T.J. Watt. But if you ask me right now, like, all right, who's the best defensive player in the league,

right? Donald, Ramsey, probably T.J. at that point at number three. Okay. I love T. you're right. There's a strong statistical. I mean, and someone could send the stats, and you're right, Watt's stats are ridiculous over, you know, pretty much every edge rusher in the league. It kind of boils down to like, you know, Miles Garrett against a great left tackle one-on-one, or T.J. Watt against a great tackle one-on-one, I would take Garrett. But you're right. DJ Watt, his brilliance is in kind of all the different things that he does, and he's always

heard from every game. So I would take Garrett if I was picking one, but I just wanted to challenge you there. You know, you made the declaration. So I'm going to go with somebody who's neither of those two guys. Michael Parsons, who I think, you know, very quickly could belong on that list of top five defensive players in the NFL. Maybe he's already there. Had 13 sacks as a rookie. And if you look at, there were 15 players who had double-digit sacks last year. He rushed the passers 74 fewer times than anyone else on that list. And so if you're Dan Quinn and you're looking at this defense in 2022, I feel like Michael Parsons is absolutely. going to get more opportunities to rush the passer. I thought he passed the eye test with just like eye-popping plays when you watched him. You know, some of the things you mentioned with why, you're just like, all right, you're going

to hear from Micah Parsons in this game. And so, you know, some of the stats, if you just look at like pressure percentage and that type of stuff, he was up there where there's a very easy case that if Michael Parsons gets more opportunities, his numbers, he could easily be somebody who leads the league in sacks, tackles for loss, force fumbles, like all those categories that you just mentioned. Are you worried at all that he plays on the edge less because he sort of did it out of necessity, but then he was incredible. So I'm with you that I can't imagine that they wouldn't want to keep feeding him opportunities there.

But have you seen anything out of Cowboys Camp that indicates to you what his role is going to be like this year? Maybe that they've signed Anthony Barr, you know, kind of late there, that maybe that takes some stuff off of his play. I don't know. I mean, I would just look at it. And as soon as the season ended, I would have looked at it and been like, like, okay, we have to figure out ways to get him to rush the pass or more. But you're right. I mean, he did do a lot of different things and he did a lot of different things really

well for them. So maybe, you know, how coaches are. They like to admire their own brilliance on, oh, we can get him to do this, this and this. it's like, no, just settle down there and get him to rush the passer, especially in every passing situation, every third down. Ben, Michael Parsons. I'm not too worried about the reps issue where he's taking his snaps because we showed

last year that we'd figured that out when we gave him defensive rookie of the year. You know what I mean? Like last year it was like, like when I went to do defensive rookie prep, I was like, okay, this many edge directors have won it. This many linebackers won it. And then I was like when Michael won it

and I don't even really know under which position he won it. You know what I'm saying? He won the first rookie of the year for being really good at all of the spots. What is he going to play this year? I don't really know. I expect him to be very productive

at whatever his distribution of snaps is. And I think at this point, the national discourse knows enough about him to feel confident, voting from if he's producing, independent of what his distribution is. So even if he's inside more, you think that he could have the counting stats and the impact plays that are like very obvious if you just turn on a television and see them. Yeah.

Can you explain that to me a little bit? Because I think the more he plays on the edge, the more he's going to have opportunities to do that stuff. So explain what to you in terms of like the voting thing or terms like the football you feel? Why you don't think it'll matter in terms of his production? Because I think when he's lined up at linebacker, I think he's going to get tackles, batter passes, and forced fumbles. When he's lined up at rush linebacker, I think he's going to get sacks,

TFLs, and forced fumbles. And then I think we're going to see a stat a week from next gen this week and from NFL on prime the week after and from sports info solutions the next week. That's Michael Parsons is the first defensive player in 19 years to X, Y, and Z. And that we're just going to be hammered, hammer, hammer, hammer. But if, like, I don't know, I'm trying to think of a good, like, when Jalen Ramsey in 2020, he was, like, playing a lot. the slot. It was like sick, but it took us time during that season to be like, whoa, like Jalen Ramsey's

playing in the slot a lot. This is really crazy. We're already there with Parsons. Like every single game is going to be like Parsons took staffs in seven different positions and his best player ever. Like we're being hit over the head with it. So I don't think we're going to like lose sight of that. You know what I mean? Love it. So I went with Nick Bosa. in part because when I was I was out in San Francisco or in Santa Clara, however long ago, and was kind of surprised is maybe not the term, but it just really noticeable to me how good they feel about that defense, like obviously an incredible unit last year, but everybody there feels like this could be the best defense in the NFL.

And I think the reason that they feel that way is particularly even just the addition of someone like Traverius Ward. I think they feel like the back end of that defense is going to be just solid in a way that it hasn't been and that that's going to allow their front to kind of clean up.

So he's in a contract year, which I don't always know how much to make of that or not, but I think it could be significant. They've lost some depth. Like they lost Arden Key to the Jags. He's going to have a big workload and hopefully that in combination with the coverage is going to be a little bit better,

so there's less that they're compensating for. I think he could end up having a monster year. I mean, the bar is high because he had 15 and a half sacks last year. But I think there could be some desire to sort of award that team in some way because they're interesting and they're good. It's a little bit hard to say that, you know, I shied away from the Debo thing, right? Because it's a little hard to say we know what we're going to get on offense. But if I want to zig a little bit from the like absolute top top candidates, I like Nick Bosa.

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1-800 gambler dot net also in West Virginia I like that he's going to put up monster numbers and like you said he could be the best

player on the best defense he should be on the short list absolutely best player on the nineers defense is Fred Warner but he'll never win

the award it'll make me sad maybe I was so hoping Nora was about to go Fred Warner and that it was both so I was like

eh lame but like It's not, I love you. It's not going to be credible. I would like to do it for you. However. The other thing, I do have a, it's not, I don't have a bone to pick with you, Ben, but I'm just going to do it with you because your guide to Miko.

So another thing that I discovered is that they used to, they used to have a phrase, I guess, like a catch phrase where, which, was all gas, no breaks. I guess, like, that defense used to have it on. Robert Sala, yeah. Yeah, it was a solid thing and it was on T-shirts. Well, now that's with the Jets. Now that's like, Salas in New York walking around wearing sweatshirts,

let's say, all gas, no breaks. So here we are, the 49ers defense. They need to come up with something new. Do either of you know what they came up with? No. No. I'm scared. Special effort and relentless mindset swarm for short.

Oh, swarm is cool. At first, wait, effort starts with an E though. Yeah, I was thinking Sears in first, but then in the M doesn't work. They serum. Do they turn the E on its side?

Are they like E and then it's a W? We're going to do Coach of the Year and then I'm going to get back to you because now you're, there must have been either like somebody has some real spelling issues or, because you're so right.

And that's what I Red, special effort and relentless mindset, but that can't be right. I guess if it was. Unless it is sperm. Or special effort, you know, like sometimes kids, you know, yeah. Special. We'll, pow, what? Yeah.

Special will. Ben, give me your coach of the year and we're going to figure this out. Okay, so, coach of the year. There are two things I look for for coach of the year if you look back over the last like 10, 15 winners. Number one, you got to win a lot of games. The last coach to win coach of the year, without winning 10 games, at least 10 games, on a 16 game schedule,

was Jimmy Johnson in 1990. He went 7 and 9 and won it, and I didn't bother to figure out why he was allowed to do that, but whatever. Shout out Jimmy Johnson. The other thing you have to look for is guys to have first, right? First year coaches win in a lot. Kevin Sopansky, Matt Nagy, Sean McVeigh,

Bruce Arias when he was in interim with the Colts, Jim Harbaugh when he's with the Niners. All first year coaches all won the award. It also can be that you are the coach of a first year quarterback when Ariens won in Indy, it was Lux's first year there, when Jason Garrett won it in 2016,

which, yes, Jason Garrett won it in 2016, it was Dak Prescott's first year, Lamar Jackson's first year when John Harbaugh won it. So we want coaches who win a lot, and we want first sorts of new things going on in those areas. So if you go and you look at teams with high wind totals, bills, buccaneers, Packers, Chiefs, Rams,

like there's nothing interesting there. But you can get the Colts who have a 10, game win total right now in Vegas, who have not yet made the playoffs under Frank Wright, who have endured a lot of quarterback change and now have not like a first year quarterback because of the draft, but they have Matt Ryan in Indianapolis. I think Frank Wright's a really good coach who's got some issues that he's been dealing with. They keep on giving up big games late. If we get this season from the Colts that we hope to get dominant in a bad AFC South, clean,

crisp, quality football by a really good roster with Matt Ryan there in his first season. Yeah, a 12-win Colts team to me gives Frank Reich a really nice runway to win this award. You could also look at like Eagles Nick Siriani and kind of, you know, talk yourselves into like, okay, it's not really first year, but second year. But when I like look at kind of what's, what's been the Fens Post for this award recently, I like Frank Reich with the Colts. Yeah, I think he would have to win, like they would have to be especially dominant. Like you said, they would have to win 12 games. 12 games. Maybe in the, yeah, be in the running for the first seat or be the first seat. Because, yeah, if they go 10 and 7 and win the AFC South, they're just kind of, you know, where they usually are.

So you're right there. I'm launching a campaign here with my choice. You know, Ben, you mentioned the Russell Wilson has never gotten an MVP vote thing. I'm launching a campaign, which I didn't. Sometimes when you do these exercises, you prep for a podcast, you learn something. I learned Mike Tomlin has never won Coach of the Year. It's so bad, dude. It's so bad.

Matt Maggie has won Coach of the Year. Jason Garrett. has won coach of the year. Mike Tomlin has not had a losing record in 15 years and has never won coach of the year. Mike Tomlin took Duck Frickin Hodges and Mason Rudolph to an eight-need record. How did he not win coach of the year?

It's so bad. I'm not like going on the record and picking the Steelers to make the playoffs, but I'm also not betting against Mike Tomlin. Like there's a scenario where they win nine or ten games and make the playoffs. And you know what? This should just be a lifetime achievement. award. If the Steelers make the playoffs, give Mike Tomlin the coach of the year award. I don't care

about anybody else. He's going to be doing it with either Mitchell Chubisky or a rookie in Kenny Pickett. And so mine was not like an analytically sound. Ben laid out the reasons for the coaches who usually win this. Well, you know what? Those have led to some terrible decision. So let's change how we do this and just look at who we think the best coaches. And Mike Tomlin is probably going to be one of the best coaches in the NFL this year. Yes. Probably. Yes. Absolutely. Tomlin is one of the best coaches. He should win it now just for having done what he's done forever. They should just name it now. I like that.

Let's start the campaign now just name it. Coach of the decade. I guess the decade hasn't been that long. Yeah. We'll work on it. We'll workshop it. He can be the ringer NFL coach of the year. How's that?

I'm sure he'll be very delighted. I like that. By the way, guys, it's special work ethic, not effort. Which is probably on me and mine. So it's, it's, it's swarm. Because the E is still in there. I still like Weffer. I love me some Damico Ryans.

I'm not, I'm worried about Swarm. You're going to work on the message. Swarm is my only concern for the 49ers defense. Who's your coach of the year, Nora? I'm so distracted by Swarm. Oh, boy. All right. Slightly, I guess this is maybe slightly similar to Shields and that this is one that we just

like should have done. I think our guy Kevin Clark wrote a really good profile of Matliflor, who famously has not won coach of the year. And I think that's because largely there's this like, oh, Aaron Rogers just does everything narrative. The last year in Aaron Rogers has maybe indicated that he's not the easiest guy to coach. And if that team just like continues to be the Packers and win double digit games every season and be really, really good, I wonder if there will be a movement, perhaps spearheaded by our guy, Kevin Clark. I don't know why I always have to call him our guy. I think it's because he does it.

But the combination of he probably was deserving in the past and didn't get it, a la Tomlin. And, hey, so the quarterback's on ayahuasca, apparently. Like, this might be a complicated situation. Maybe Matt Lafleur deserves it. So I went with Matlafleur. I also could see, like, I don't know, a Doug Peterson. I just wanted to say the name of Doug Peterson in terms of in front of the two of you and see what happened.

Yeah, Doug Peterson, who rightfully should have won 2017 coach of the year, not Sean McVeigh. McVeigh clearly overrated at this point. Doug won a Super Bowl first. Yeah, the issue with, so like Doug is a good example of the other big factor. I'm talking about like first year coaches and winning a lot of games, but you also have to add a lot to, last year's win, right? And that's a gesturing to what you guys have brought up, which is the fact that sustained success

is punished by this award. We give it to coaches who drastically improve on last year's numbers because it feels new. It feels the Herbert thing. It feels fresh. Stephansky out of five wins when he took over. Matt Nagy added seven. McVeigh added seven. Ariens was nine and three as an interim. The Colts had won two games

the season previous. Harbaugh added seven when he won it. It's also taking a big boost in win total. So we're talking first year coach, Doug obviously had a job beforehand, who boosts win total tremendously. Like if the Jaguars go from what they went two games last year to eight, Doug's a really good candidate in that regard.

All of these narrative arguments, by the way, it's so good that you guys bring up Tomlin on the floor, because the one guy who fits, like, the formula of the best, is Nate Hackett. And I refuse to mention Nate Hackett as deserving of coach of the year. That I categorically

denied. So it's a bad formula. It's just the one that voters tend to use. Well, yeah, But I think there has to be an addendum to the formula for, but you traded for Russell Wilson. Yeah. Because you have to look at, like, there's like a credit pie that matters for these things. And I think Russell Wilson would get,

if they are good enough that Nathaniel Hackett would be a good coach of the year candidate, he won't be. Russ is winning. Because Russ will be getting the kind of for it. Now you're thinking like a sports better, Nora. It's all right. If X happens, got a bet on Y. Yep.

I think, yeah, that's 100% true. So the other guy who I think fits it better than Hackett would be Kevin O'Connell. If they win the NFC North, you know, no one's going to say, wow, Kurt Cousins is a different guy this year. Everyone's going to say, oh, my gosh, Kevin O'Connell came in and got this version of Kirk and they're playing better. And they pulled off the upset. They dethrone the Packers. So he's kind of my, I don't know what to make of him, but he's sort of my sleeper pick that fits the profile of first year head coach. Everyone's feeling good.

Maybe they overachee. I like that a lot in the sense that I feel like if they do that, it's actually kind of almost automatic. I just don't think they can. It's kind of like the Herbert thing because I just, I don't, I don't think they'll be in the Packers. Comeback player of the year. Can I start because I have a question.

Go ahead. Does Lamar qualify? Yeah. Lamar Jackson. He played 12 games, but I also feel like he should get a boost from like the total decimation that was around him. like comeback by osmosis?

I don't know that I would say he qualifies 12 games. I mean, let's see. I don't think it's, I don't think that's going to be enough of a come. Although again, I said the other thing was a dumb award. This is also a dumb award. I don't know what you have to come back from.

So I don't want to tell you that I don't want to say anyone's wrong and that anyone can't make it because I don't understand it at all. But it feels just when you said it, I thought it felt like a stretch. But maybe I'm wrong. as of right now, I'm looking at like an odds kind of accumulator, and I don't see Lamar listed anywhere. So maybe Lamar doesn't count in that regard.

Okay. I feel like, my thing with Lamar is like, I think Lamar is going to have an MVP caliber season. And then I think someone else is going to get the award, and they're going to be like, come back player the year. You know what I'm saying? It's like you could have won MVP toss.

But there are other guys, like the top of books right now is James Winston, which sure, Derek Henry, Christian McCaffrey, Sakeland Barkley, Michael Thomas, Daniel Jones, Mitchell Chubisky, J.J. Joseph Schuster, Alan Robinson,

those are guys who are at the top of books right now. Okay. Permission to stick with Lamar because that list is terrible? That's the top of books in terms of odds, right? And then you have like a bunch of like,

you know, J.K. Dobbins, Travis E.T.N., Chase Young, Trugo Jones. Guys like legitimately had injuries last year. Okay. I will, if it's not Lamar, I want to be in Ravenland.

What about Pose? the Raven. Yeah. He's off the board. I mean, he's the overwhelming favorite. You can't even put any lettuce down on on him. All right. Well, if I can't do Lamar and I can't do Po, then I'll stay in the same universe and

I like the idea of J.K. Dobbins. I just feel like there should be an acknowledgement of coming back from a team health situation that was so untenable to being really, really good.

And I would like to award that. I also think, I mean, there's, there's logic to, um, as much as there can be logic to picking a running back for like any NFL award anymore. I think there's some logic to that just because it seems like this iteration of that offense might not be quite as hell bent on no, we're going to figure out how to throw downfield finally. I think they might be a little bit more just like, let's be who we are this year. So yeah, I'll go if I can't.

My A choice is Lamar, but if that's unacceptable, I'll take Dobbins. Yeah. Dobbins is a fun one because talent-wise, I think Dobbins has shown me to be really, really good in the league and is going to be really, really good in the league, assuming he's back. We have to remember, like, we always like to say, like, you know, ACL tear. He tore multiple ligaments in his knee. This is one of the bad ones, right? Like, Gus Edwards, tore the ACL.

He tried ACL, MCL damage. I think he had LCL issues as well. Like, this is a gnarly one. If he comes back, first, it's truly a comeback. And secondly, I agree. Where I think he's going to be a massive beneficiary to the way they play offense. I'm going chalk. I think Derek Henry should win this award.

I talked about this a little bit on a popular video of the show last week where Henry, man. If, like, Henry is the, he's the, he's the John Snowe against the, the horde. You know what I'm saying? He is the last bastion. I just watched that episode last night. Okay, so you blew out your AirPods, so I read your lips and you said, I just listened to this episode last night, but I want you to know, the audio didn't come through the Zoom because you were too, do I have a register? I don't know, it didn't go through.

But it's a great episode, right? It's so good. Game of Thrones is so good. Sorry. If only somebody had told you, Nora. No, they did. I was just scared, but now I want, it's good. It's great.

Anyway, continue. I love it. Derek Henry had one of a few 2,000-yard season. I'm pretty sure it was the fourth running back to ever do it. two years ago. And then last year he was on pace to do it again. And then had a list, Frank, a Jones fracture, excuse me. If he comes back, his rushing carol said at

1,350 yards. If he comes back and is a 1,500 yard rusher again, at 29, with A.J. Brown gone. Coming off of a foot injury, which is the worst sort of injury. And to me, like, it's like, I don't care what James does. This should be a shoe in.

You know, kind of an acknowledgement of how difficult it is to be a bell cow back in the modern NFL. So to me, Henry, Henry, is deservedly chalk right now and should remain chock for as long as he stays healthy. Can we clip? I don't care what Jamis does. That seems like maybe that would be useful going forward.

Yeah, I think if he does that, right? Like, totally. I just worry about, okay, here's a player who we've been looking at for years and going, how can he keep doing what he's done? And he's proved many people wrong to that effect time and time again. but that's still a factor. And then you add in a foot injury, which is just like a big running back.

But that's the thing. It's a fracture in his foot is scary, scary business to me when he's set that high a bar. Because what if, like, here's the thing, is what if he comes back and has a 987 yards season? There's actually something that's like still kind of remarkable in some way. And I just don't think that it will, will translate in this way

because it's like he didn't come all the way back. I don't think he'd win it if he had a 987 year in season. However, it's like, it's the way like, you know, we hope that GMs run teams. Don't bet on outliers until you find one. Right?

Like, yeah, don't go swinging for the outlier until you very clearly have one, in which case build around it, right? This is the advantage. That's what, to me, Henry has reached the point where there is no player in the league for whom I am more confident could return from a major injury and continue to find ways to produce

because of the ridiculous slanted odds which he has already produced in his career. Henry already should have been tailing up. She's been tailing off two years ago. Look at the amount of players he has to run against the way they run the football, the attention that he gets, he already should have been bad.

He's still good. At this point, I'm overbeating against Derek Henry. And so to me, it's, if, and I brought this up on the podcast with Shield, we've heard nothing. There's been no, like, they're softly bringing Derek Henry and every time it's beat's like yep

and Derek Henry's back and that to me is just astounding in and of itself already so I've got faith in the guy I went with one funny one and one sleeper and so the funniest one Ben you just ran read the list is Alan Robinson because like

what is he coming back from playing with Andy Dalton and being coached by Matt Nagy and being sad I mean what is this honestly yeah but yeah Norah's like yeah that's yeah that you should win it for that Maybe he should. But I just don't understand.

Alan Robinson just crying at the awards presentation gal. I'm like, I've been through so much. And there's like actual injured players in the audience. Yeah. Yeah, there's guys with like two injured Achilles, you know, who ran for a thousand yards. And they're like, you didn't have it as bad as Alan Robinson had it last year. So that's, yeah.

You'd have to read the list. I'd like to thank Blake Portles. Right. So coming back from sadness, I think you, you termed it well. that would be the funniest one. Here's my sleeper is DeNeal Hunter. And he's like way down that list. But he's played in seven games the last two years.

And I just love Daniel Hunter. Like if he's healthy, he could have 15 sacks. He could lead the league in sacks. And so if he gets up there, I feel like I'm naming a lot of Vikings during this episode. That's probably not going to vote well for me this season. I'm leaning all the way in,

I guess. But he was one that I look at a big Minnesota Vikings guy. I looked down the list and I was like, like, kind of like what Nora, you know, when she heard those names, she's like, yeah, I'm not going to pick Daniel Jones here. And so that's kind of what I did. And I kept going further and further down. I said, maybe it's a Neil Hunter.

The long shot pass rusher for me is Carl Lawson, baby. I wanted to see Lawson in this defense so freaking bad last year. And I got to wait a year. I'm just so pumped up to see it again. Carl Lawson. All right. Offensive rookie of the year. Ben, let's go.

Yeah, I hate offensive rookie of the year. It's my least favorite award. Josh Jacobs sort of won it over Kyle Moraine in 2019. It's such BS. Oh, quarterback started 12 games. Here's the award. It's just irritating. So it's actually really fun this year because you have non,

you don't have any quarterbacks projected to start among the rookies. So as long as Mitch makes it like through the first half of the season, Pickett ain't winning this award. It's not going to play long enough to accumulate when he needs to accumulate in order to win the award. Unless he walks out is really good. I got news for you. I do not anticipate this would be the case with Kenny Pickett. So I'm feeling okay about that.

However, if we stay in Pittsburgh, this young man by name of George Pickens, holy smokes, Piggins is really, really, really fun to watch. Piggins is not what we typically see when we talk about this war because he's not a first round player. However, he very well could have been a first round player in terms of talent, and it's not like he's lacking for the visibility of it. It's not like he's like a second round pick out of North Dakota State, Chris and Watson. Like, no, he's, everybody knew who George Piggins was.

He felt because of maturity concerns and he felt because of injury concerns. Pittsburgh is really good at getting production. had receivers, really good to get putting production out of young receivers. They have very clearly prioritized George Pickens. Chase Cable did not play in the slot last year. Chase Cable's playing in the slot this season. That's because Piggins beat him out for the outside receiver spot in camp. They are, as a guy who wrote about George Bickens,

the Steelers are trying very hard to keep how excited they are about George Pickens as quiet as possible. They really, really believe in the talent of this guy. I think that with him, and obviously there's a good receiving core there, but I think with him bringing the outside downfield contested to catch the ball that they kind of need when they're trotting Mitch and Chubisky out there, I think you're going to see a very productive pickings. You level that up against the production

we're expecting from first round receivers. Drake London is injured. Garrett Wilson hasn't broken the depth chart. Olave may be good. Jahan Dodson is not, we expect to be productive with Carson Wentz. And then Trayland Berks, who's struggling.

Like, I expect Pickens to be the most productive of the rookie receivers early. I like him for office a rookie of the year. So I want to hear your, you're, for me, I was really caught between Pickens and Alave. Just because Pickens has been so great through camp up to this point, and it seems like they think so, so highly of him.

The only thing that that really gives me pause is just the overall offense that he's going to be playing in, who's going to be throwing the ball. And that makes me feel a little bit more inclined to think about Alave, just because I have more trust in that offense. What do you, do you think that the picket, Trubisky factor is a factor for pickens? Or like, there's going to be enough there no matter what, no matter what the quarterback play is like.

Trubisky doesn't scare me that much more than like James scares me. I know it's fun to love James. And like, James throwing a bunch of picks isn't going to make Chris Lavet worse. It's going to like take away possessions, obviously. But they're going to be down. They're going to continue to throw the ball. But Tribisky is, in terms of, like,

talent of throwing the football to the receivers, really not that bad. Like, he, he isn't. It's functional enough that he can sustain a rookie of the year production season from a receiver like George Pickens. Saints fans to turn the podcast off. Alave's good, but he's, he is a capped player. It breaks my heart because I love him.

Loves him coming out. But this is a small dude. He is going to be good as a cog in the offense, filling a role. A role, which we should note, like, is a lot of short and underneath stuff that Michael Thomas already does. And I know Saints fans are like, no, they're using him deep down the field. James loves to throw it deep. This is not a big person, man.

Like, there is a limit here in terms of what he can be in that. You don't win off as a rookie of the year by being a deep shot guy. Pickens, to me, has a clearly higher ceiling because he has a three-level usage that the sealers are opening up for him. Whereas for the Saints, I feel like if a lobby is, if they try to give him that feature role over a Michael Thomas, I don't think they're going to get returns on their investment. I love a lot of as a player. It's just he's a role player. There's a new slant boy in town.

Is that what you're saying, Ben? He runs a very nice slam. I think he can run a little bit more. There will only forever be one slant boy. Shout out, Johnson, New Philadelphia. Eagle, Eagles win the Super Bowl. Yeah, I'm surprised we've gotten this far.

I thought you were going to choose Chauncee Gardner Johnson for like every one of these awards. So I'm surprised we made it this far without doing that. I had it between Pickens and one other player. You made the case for Pickens. And I think it's a great case. he's also going to have the clips of him just knocking over cornerbacks at the line of scrimmage, which he did in college and is already doing now, which is fun.

I want with Damien Pierce, you know, because wide receiver is so hard because you have to rely on so many things. You know, you have to rely on the quarterback, the offensive line, you know, that you got to put up your numbers, targets. Damien Pierce is just going to get the ball a lot, I think. And I know he didn't have high usage in college. We'll see if he's able to handle that or not. but I think he'll have the numbers necessary to win it for a running back. And I also just feel like I don't even know what else I was going to. Oh, he has a physical, like, fun running style.

Like, I think he's going to be a fun player to watch. Now, the Texans are not going to be in the spotlight. They're not going to have five nationally televised games. But I think fantasy probably helps a little bit with this. And so I went with Damien Pierce. I'm trying to find a skill position player drafted out. outside of the first two rounds with one offensive rookie of the year.

And I don't know when Anthony Thomas, the 2001 winner for the Chicago Bears was drafted. So we've reached the end of my knowledge of things. The worst part about rookie of the year is that it's based off draft capital. Like I know we're probably about to go to defensive rookie of the year, where 18 of the last 22 winners

have been top 16 picks. It's boring. It's just, are you drafted early? You might win this award. It sucks. Like, Pierce is a good pick, but even with fantasy,

I don't know if enough people literally know, him in order to make it the award. Yeah. Next year when we do this, we're going to order the awards by which ones annoy us the most. Ooh, the hate rankings. I'm in.

The hate rankings. Every single one first. Seven way tie. All right. Well, speaking of, Ben, since you just expressed your deep appreciation for it, do you want to give us your defensive rookie of the year? Wait, we didn't get, did we get your

offensive? Nora? Are you Pickens? You did. Pickens in a lot of back. I ultimately, no, I was tempted, but I went pickens too. Yeah, boy. Big George, good ball player.

Defense a rookie of the year. So 18 of the last 22 picks have been top 16 selections, which sucks. There's also like defensive player of the year is a word that belongs to guys who tackle football players, guys who are around the ball. So we have seven edges, nine offball linebackers, and then also whoever Michael Parsons is.

So that's 17. of the last 22 have gone to edge slash off ball linebacker players. The remaining five. You might be like, you know, corners. It's actually not. Two corners have won it. Marcus Peters in 2015 and Marshall Ladamore 2017. So recently. But we also have three defensive tackles. Aaron Donald in 2014. Shelter Richard in 2013, a little bit of cheating because he was

like defensive end in a three, four. We had three and a half sacks. It's not real. And then Adama can sue in 2010. Accordingly, top 16. picked, plays defensive tackle, can be a member of a great defense, and just deserves shine. It's Jordan Davis.

All right. Big fella. Defensive tackle, Philadelphia Eagles. I do not believe in the ability of any of the pass rushers to be an eight-sack guy in their bookies season. I don't see it from Aiden Hutchinson.

I don't see from Trayvon Walker. I think Thibow could get there, but we're also dealing a little bit of a health issue for Tibodeau right now. So if you're not going edge And you go and you look in the top 16 You ain't final off more linebackers So we don't got pass fresher We don't got a linebacker

That opens the field And so unless you get an incredible season from sauce Or incredible season from Stingley Which I would allow for both Because I love both Dejorn Davis just freaking sitting there at 13 He's going to have a few sacks As a clean-up player

As just a presence in the middle He's going to be on the field And he is going to be ludicrously valuable For a massive defensive improvement And we've seen that we're smart enough to give the award defensive tackles when they play well. Shelton Richardson won it because he stopped the run for a Rex Ryan defense. This has happened.

I'm taking Jordan Davis, baby. Sheal, I'm just going to let you go here. Well, I think if Jordan Davis wins, it would have to be the film grinders, would really have to have a lot of cloud here. I don't think he's going to put up a lot of sack numbers. He obviously did not in college. I know it's a different scheme. I know he's going to be asked to do different things.

Also, the playing time worries me a little bit. You know, they've got Fletcher Cox, they've got Javonne Hargrave. Like, he's not going to be playing, you know, 70% of the snaps for sure. Ben is not worried. He has the bit most unconcerned look I've ever seen. And so, yeah, there could be, you know, if he's just making highlight level plays like he did in sort of their first preseason game where he's just tossing people around and their defense is much improved, which we'll see if it is, then he certainly could be the pick. I went, you know, I didn't do all you. I wish you could have given me some of this research before the pod.

didn't, you know, research the 18 and 22. And so I just like, when you're out here, betting on folks, you're looking up a lot of things. Okay. I just looked at the list that go, oh, sauce gardener. That could be interesting because Jets fans are going to be really sad. Jets fans are going to be really sad about their offense. Jets fans are going to need something that gets them excited. This defense, I feel like could be competent, mediocre.

They've got enough players to be like a, you know, sort of a fun, mediocre defense. And so Soss Gardner, I feel like if he's playing well, he's just going to be so hyped that Jets fans are going to be ecstatic. A lot of people are going to be ecstatic. And so he is my pick. And, you know, he's got the personality. He's got the nickname. He's fun. And so he kind of checks all those boxes for me.

Well, in terms of like a changing league, like I said, like, oh, since 2020, like 18 last 22, whatever, and like give all these defensive linemen and these linebackers, if you do the last seven years, corners won two last seven awards, right? Because the two that have won it have been Marcus Peter. and Marchion on Laddwell. It is possible. You do need to have bad edge production

and bad linebacker production to get there. But I think we can get there, which opens up the world to like your corners, you're Jordan Davis's and, you know, Kyle Hamilton,

but he's not going to win it. Jordan Davis is. It's going to be good. Another way to get there. Another way to get there would be by a player who didn't allow a touchdown in all of college

and has not had a single person throw at him throughout the preseason. which is, to Shields Point, Sauce Gardner. He is my pick because it is unclear that he will give up a catch. It has yet to happen. If nobody throws out of me, he doesn't get any stats. Can't win the award, baby.

If nobody, you know what? I'm not a betting woman. If no one throws at sauce, he should win. If he goes the entire season, I actually would love, like, somehow, if this could happen, it would be the most incredible thing to sort of, like, test how we analyze things. if not a single football goes his way, I think he should win the award. And I have no proof that that won't happen.

So he was my pick as well. I love it, chill. I'm right there with you. Think of the cheeky social content that Jets can do if nobody throws it at sauce. Right? Just think about all the fun, like, Sauce Gardner, what do you do during games?

And just like cut to videos of him, like, you know, like playing cards and like, you know, like reading and like just having a great time. He's not a Game Boy. Yeah. Just just hanging out. Do they make, is, are Game Boy? Absolutely not. They were a thing when I was a child, but I loved it. It was a good reference.

Listen, I like it as, again, as the uncle of the podcast, I'm in on any and all Game Boy references. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, great game back in the day. Pokemon Emerald, man. That was the go-to, long bar rides. I have nothing to contribute other than referencing a Game Boy. All right. Thank you guys both so much. This has been the Ringer NFL show. How do you end the podcast? You do your best You do your best Kevin Clark

invitation. That's what I always do. This has been the Ringer NFL show, part of the Ringer Podcast Network. You've got to cut all of your syllables as short as possible. This has been the Ringer NFL show. Thank you all for listening.

We will be back tomorrow. Thank you, as always, to Stefan Anderson for production on this episode and to Connor Nevins and Arjuna Ramgapal for additional production supervision.