The Ringer NFL Show - 2023 NFL Power Rankings: AFC West

Episode Date: July 4, 2023

Nora Princiotti and Steven Ruiz return to discuss the latest suspensions for gambling in the NFL. Then, they rank the teams in the AFC West from best to worst and adjust their NFL rankings thus far. Hosts: Nora Princiotti and Steven Ruiz Associate Producer: Stefan Anderson Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Musical Elements: Devon Renaldo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, it's Bill Simmons from The Ringer, and this is a podcast called The Rewatchables. We have been doing it. Really since 2017, it started with how much we love the movie Heat. We decided to structure a whole podcast with categories, most rewatchable scene, who of the movie, Apex Mountain, what age the best. But here's the thing. If you want the full archive, you can hear them only on Spotify for free, by the way. So make sure to follow the rewatchables on Spotify. Hello and welcome to the Ringer NFL show.

I'm Norvin Ziyadi and I am here, as always, with Stephen Ruiz. We are going to continue our power ranking series this week with the AFC West, fun division, exciting division. But before we get to that, there has been another bit of gambling suspension related news this week in the NFL. So Isaiah Rogers and Rashad Barry, both of the, the Indianapolis Colts. And then Demetrius Taylor, who's a free agent, were all suspended indefinitely

through at least the 2023 season for having bet on NFL games last year. And then Nicholas Petitrere, the Tennessee Titans tackle, was suspended six games for betting on other sports, so not the NFL,

but doing so at the workplace. So the NFL put those out on Thursday, the Colts then cut Rogers and Barry. And Chris Ballard put out a statement saying that the integrity of the game is of the utmost importance. This, you know, this is coming on the heels of quite a few of these news items about the league uncovering issues with small to medium to large range violations. I believe Barry had bet on a teammates' rushing prop, which does seem like something you should know not to do. But Stephen, as we're seeing more and more of these types of stories,

how are you processing the slew of gambling-related suspensions that seem to be a new fact of life in the NFL? I feel like there's been blowback for the NFL, and I'm all for criticizing the league for hypocrisy, but I feel like this one, I kind of side with the league, and I get it. I get why these players are getting suspended

and why they're so harsh, because the integrity of the game, I know you can compare it to like Deshawn Watson, not really getting the suspension we want it, but it's tough to be a sports league when people think that there's a chance that it's not, like the results aren't on the up and up. So I get why they're being so.

harsh about it. I also think we're not giving these players enough credit. These rules were very clear and they came out last year. I know the NFL went back and like kind of spelled them out a little bit more and made them more clear, but I mean, these are adults. These are adults.

And if you're told don't bet on sports while on team facilities or don't bet on the NFL, I feel like that's a very easy direction to follow. And I just think like the, I think the number will eventually go down. I think we're going to stop seeing these suspensions. One, I think players are going to get smarter about how they bet. Two, I just think

that's just what happens when you start a new rule. Like, I'm sure whenever they started to outlaw murder, there was a lot of people getting caught for murder. You know what I mean? Like, people were still murdering. So, I don't know. I just think that's, that's part of it. I think there's always been a pretty clear, when was murder first outlawed? I feel like that's always been a pretty clear taboo. I just assumed, like, back in like, 500. AD you were able to get away with murder. I don't know. Well, but there was that whole thing where like a Roman citizen

could walk the whole face of the earth free of fear of molestation because of the wrath of the empire. I don't know if that's necessary. Like that's not technically a law, but it's I might be going back to like cave band days.

Did you have that in the can? Did that just like come into your mind or are you waiting with the first time they outlawed murder at probably took a while to catch on. I probably could have picked a better crime. I probably should have been done running a red light. Like once red lights came into,

it was probably hard to follow direction. But yeah, I don't know. I just think like, I think the number is going to go down. I don't think it's this epidemic. And I don't think we're going to see what is it was, it been like 12 players this offseason that have been suspended.

I don't think we're going to see that number reach that double digits next year, for instance. Well, and I am slightly confused. I would love to learn more about the timelines on which we find out about this stuff, because my understanding is that it is incredibly easy for the league because all of the gambling sites and platforms are their partners, are their business partners. My understanding is that it is incredibly easy for them to catch people doing this.

And so in some ways, I think because we've had this trickle of stories and recurring stories with different players, it feels like it just keeps happening. All of this stuff was, it all happened last season. So in theory, it all happened before there were a critical mass of these news stories

that hopefully do have an effect of making players more aware of it. I will just, I have what I think is an unpopular opinion about this, although I haven't really voiced it, so maybe it's not. If I were the league, I would ban player. I would say like, you know what? If you want to be a professional NFL player, you may not gamble on sports, full stop.

Because it seems like people aren't getting the memo. Maybe I'm wrong about that. Maybe if we do another year and the rules are more clearly articulated, that solves the problem in and of itself. Right now, my sense is like something is not coming through clearly. and if that is the league's fault for being opaque in what the regulations actually are, then I suppose that should fall on them. The argument I don't get at all is that it's hypocritical for them.

And like, I hate saying this because, yeah, I don't want to, I don't want to be on the NFL's side with this. But the idea that it's hypocritical for them to be in business with the gambling platforms and then say that that players can't bet on it is ridiculous to be. There are like eight bagillion professions. that touch financial markets or other types of conflicts where if you are a lawyer who represents a bunch of companies, you can't just go buy a bunch of their stock on the stock market. Like agreements like this exist in so many different areas of business and work that if they're

making it clear to people, I think the idea that the NFL is making. making money off of gambling, making it hypocritical for them to not let the players do it. Who, by the way, like, I think revenue sharing, I think the way that that works in the NFL should be different and should reward the players more than it currently does. They still do have revenue sharing. Like, the players are still getting a cut of the gambling profits. Again, I think the cut should be bigger, but proportionally, they are receiving their share. If it's not clear, then that's the NFL's fault, I think.

But if it continues to seem like it's not clear, if I were the league, I would just make it crystal clear by being like, you may not do this. We're getting rid of the like, oh, you can bet on other sports, but you can't do it at the office. No, just you're not allowed to. You can't have a fandal account. I don't care where you're logging out. Like, you're just not allowed.

Congratulations. You're one of like 2,000 people a year who get to play in the national football league. it's an incredible accomplishment. You are going to be relatively well compensated for it during the time when you're playing. You can't bet on sport. I honestly, I'm starting to wonder why they don't just do that.

And I don't think it would be hypocritical at all. Yeah, it's so simple. And I kind of, I find it kind of odd that, like this story is the one that kind of sparked the blowback and the hypocrisy line. Because I feel like this is the most egregious one. The Colts player betting on and over on his own teammate.

Like that is, that has to be based on inside information. At least he didn't bet the under. Yeah, that would have been bad. But I want to know, like, I want to know what game it was. Because if it was one of those games when Jonathan Taylor was like, if he to play, like, that's bad. That is, that's bad. And I don't know.

This isn't the one that I, like, the Calvin Ridley suspension I thought was very harsh just because I don't think it was, I don't think the rules were as, I don't know, as known. I didn't really know the rules back then, but now like the rules are very simple, but I don't know. I can't get on board with the NFL bashing here.

I don't know. I mean, I don't, I honestly, I don't have a big problem with the Calvin Ridley suspension. I guess it feels a little easier in that case just because he's such a good player. He, you know,

obviously he's, he's going to get another clear, Schroat in Jacksonville this year. It is a little tough where it's like these guys might just be out of the league now and that might be how it ends. And that's a sad ending, right? Yeah, yeah.

I just, I have to, I have to be honest. I have limited, I have limited sympathy, especially if it feels like the rules are made clear. And I continue to be a little bit fuzzy on genuinely how clear some of the more minute details about where exactly it's okay to bet on different sports,

like how crystal clear that stuff is coming through. I understand from coaches, from a lot of players, right, is like you walk through the doors for your orientation of the beginning of minicamp or whatever or when you're a rookie. Like, they are hitting you over the head with, you can't gamble on this. So I don't know. My tiny violin is out a little bit. But I also just... I've been sitting on this for like a month,

but I just, like, defending the NFL is not fun. But that's my... My last point, the worst tweets are like the funniest tweets are the players who are like, what's so bad about this? Like Justin Jones, it's like, that's a red flag. Like, the NFL is watching you now because you said that. Well, but it is like,

I think there's a surface level. argument about why is it okay for the league to be airing draft kings, whatever it is, like airing ads for those places and partnering and all the sweets are named after gambling places and like why is it okay for them to have this wholesale embrace of sports betting and then to not let the players participate in it? I think if you don't apply critical thought to that, it seems like, yeah, that's not fair.

If you apply just like an ounce of they are sharing in the profits from this too. And you can't have it both ways. It just will not work. And this is not a unique agreement. There are plenty of other walks of life where you have to make agreements like this to be able to function in your job. it's just like all of a sudden I think that that goes out the window but like you see that all over Twitter

you see it like everybody loves to score points by retweeting some some Shefter tweet about this and being like oh but then brought you know brought to you by but it doesn't make sense just think about it a little it doesn't make any sense yeah the owners also can't bet either

and like execs can't bet either so like they're in the same predicament as the players and that's been our this week and boot licking from the I mean, right. And like, that's what's First of all,

that was funny. What would actually be hypocritical is if somebody catches like Arthur Blank's phanticle count. That would be good. And then nothing happens to him. That's hypocrisy. No, he's also got the

Jonathan Taylor over. But that's not what that's happening. Until that's what's happening, I just, I'm sorry, miss me with all of this. Jeff Saturday had to delete his Fandul account when he got hired by Jim Mersey. I mean, not out of the question that that's the case,

but if he did it, then it's fine. All right, you want to talk about the AFC West? I suppose. Hey, so I put the Chiefs first. Oh, that's a bad take. No, I can't do it.

Didn't even think about it. Didn't look at their depth chart. Didn't even think about it. Number one. I started crafting an argument. I was like, upgraded a tackle over the offseason. And then I was like,

oh, yeah, Patrick Mahomes, Super Bowl champs. It's fine. Yeah, it's going to be fine. Do you want to play this game? Do you think that the chiefs have a weakness? Yeah, I was like trying to convince myself that I could see a scenario in which the offense has a little bit of problems, but even that's relative to like their typical standard.

I do think, like, the Juju Smith-Schuster thing could be an issue because he was so, I mean, he wasn't like Tyree killed to this offense, but he did serve a very important role as, like, the third down target when teams sold out to stop Kelsey. And now you're banking on MVS, Cadarius Tony, and Sky Moore, one of those guys to step up and fill that role. And, like, even if you hit, like, the ceiling of any of those guys, none of their skisings. dealsets really overlap with ju-ju's, and they're not really like, you don't think of Cadarious Tony as like the reliable possession receiver on third down. And Sky Moore certainly wasn't Bill that's that coming out of college. And MVS has always been just a deep threat. So the question is, where do those targets go on third down? When the defense is playing man coverage, like who can Mahomes rely on to get open outside of Kelsey? And that's a big

question mark for me. That said, he's Patrick Mahomes and he'll figure it out. He'll throw it to himself if he has to. Yeah, or and I mean, look, I think if this is the type of thing where the really good defenses have a better shot, but the answer to where those targets go is Kelsey.

Like, that's always, that's, that's going to be the case sort of no matter what. The ceiling is probably more defined by can Cadarious Tony actually have a real breakout? Can the Super

is that going to be what it looks like all the time? If that's the case, great. But if not, I do think you're talking about a huge reliance on Kelsey, which is fine. They've been fine doing that before. But that's where, you know, okay, are you going up against a bottom half defense? Who cares? Patrick Holmes, whatever. Lines good. Running games made some real strides last year. It's going to be fine. If we're talking about can you win another Super Bowl, then maybe that's a different conversation. That said,

they had they had Juju, but still did it last year. So I have no notes. I have no notes. No, I feel like these questions that were asking were questions we were asking last offseason and we were even more concerned about it.

And it turned out fine. They had an even better year. The offense didn't miss a beat. Patcham Holmes maybe had the best year of his career, which is insane to think. And then you look at the defensive side of the ball and the progress they made over the second half of last year and when they really figured out their secondary because they had a bunch of young dudes and I think they finally figured out the rotation and the defense just took off.

And it's always hard to predict like defensive performance year to year, but I have enough faith in spags. Like even if it's a, let's say it's like a mediocre unit throughout the year, like rank 20th in DVOA, come playoff time. I have faith in Spags doing enough to get Patrick Mahomes in this offense over the line because they make his margin for error so big. And I don't even think he needs it. I think he's one of the better defensive coordinators.

So I think when you have a roster that might have tiny holes, but then you look at the coaching staff and they have Andy Reed and Spags, and then you throw Patrick Mahomes on top of it. It's just like, I mean, there are no issues. They're going to win 12 games at least. So I don't know. They're winning the division. Let's just pencil them in that.

defensively, I think the only and this still falls in the category of really trying to poke holes where there really aren't any. There's some question of, okay, what if Chris Jones starts to drop off a little bit? Now, again, I don't know what indication

I'm getting that that's happening from career high, 15 and a half sacks, 29 knockdowns played a full healthy season, just an incredibly impactful player. But at some point, you lose something. And beyond him, I mean, you know, they lose Carlos Dunlap and Frank Clark over the offseason. They've replaced those guys.

You know, I think Carloptera's development is something that they'll be really hoping breaks out. and then they use their first round pick to add a pass rush a little bit in free agency. But you are sort of trying to piece it together unless Carlopterus, I think really, really breaks. But you're trying to piece it together and then hope that Chris Jones is still Chris Jones.

I think it's a decent bet. I do think that that's just the only thing where it's like, okay, say he falls off a cliff, then all of a sudden does that limit what Spags can do just because you don't have that one guy who can really wreak havoc from the interior. And maybe, but these are

these are champagne problems. Yeah, and another champagne problem is that I think special teams, they weren't that bad. Like if you look at like DVOA, but when they lost games, special teams seem to be a problem.

Yeah. But I think there's some regression there because a lot of the problems were just fumbling punts and having Sky Moore tried to be a punt returner, even though it's not something he had ever done before. And I think once they figure that out, there's going to be a hidden boost that we don't necessarily recognize just because we usually don't pay a lot of attention to special teams.

Unless you're Bill Belichick, no one really pays attention to special teams. But I think that was like a big deal for them last year. And it just speaks to how good this team is where like one of your big issues is, sometimes we fumble punt returns. Like this team, there's nothing to be, there's nothing to worry about. Right. And I mean, Tony can help them there too.

Right. Who did you have second? I went with the Chargers. And for me, I don't want to say it was a no-brainer because I did think about my third team. I'm kind of high on my third team, maybe higher than most.

But I think the Chargers figured things out down the stretch. the playoff collapse notwithstanding. I think it's easy to look at that collapse and just have a different memory of how the Charter season went. But I feel like we should be celebrating that what they were able to overcome.

Like you talk about their injuries, like half of their offense was out for a month stretch. And they won 10 games. And I feel like the takeaway is still like, oh, Staly and Herbert, a bunch of losers can never win games. They made the playoffs with half their roster out. It was,

impressive turnaround last year and I thought there were things that they that will translate to next year, especially on the defensive side of the ball. From week 10 on, they were number three and passing PA allowed. That is a big deal and that's kind of the thing you hired Brandon Staley

for and you finally got that down the stretch last year. Like Staley the first year and a half, I would be the first to admit it was very disappointing, but that second half of last year and there were games against the Chiefs, the Dolphins, the 40 Niners, even the Falcons who ended up being a top 10 offense.

So it wasn't like they were just going through Cupcake schedule. So I think there's something really tangible there. And then you have to factor in that when they've played the Chiefs, they've played them very well over the last two years. I think they're the one team that has really given them games every time they've played. So maybe if some of those issues. Other than the Bengals, but yeah. Other than the Bengals, of course.

Yeah. But like if some of those issues that we were kind of like poking holds at with the chiefs come to come to pass. I feel like the Charters do have a chance if they hit their ceiling of competing with them. I still think the Chiefs run away with the division, but I think there is a realistic scenario

where maybe the Chiefs get a little banged up like the Chargers did last year, and they're able to steal the division, even if they're not a better team come January. But I'm still concerned about the offense. Like I know Kellyn Moore has replaced Joe Lombardi and they draft Quinn Johnson, but

I don't like the direction of this team took in the offseason, like re-upping on Mike Williams and Keenan Allen just seemed like, it seemed like Tom Telesco, the GM, like grasping onto the dudes that he kind of hit on in the draft because he's had problems adding talent to this roster outside of the draft. So I don't know. It seemed like they latched on to a team that was kind of past its prime. And that's my one concern, especially on the offensive side of the ball, because this is still kind of a slow offense. So I think that's all fair, and I very much second that in particular, because I think

Quentin Johnson's going to be really good in this offense and makes a lot of sense. That just was the one thing where it would have felt so satisfying for them to get a real, real, real true speedster. And I know they took the other guy later in the draft. TCU really fast. Yes. Yes, yes, yes. So they've added something of that presence, but I do still have a lot of curiosity.

Not that I think it won't work, but just questions about how Kellyn Moore will approach this offensive skill group and trying to take advantage, take more advantage of Justin Herbert's arm. I put them second as well, so I'm right there with you. I would add just as a bullet point in this discussion,

counting on the chargers to be healthier than they have been is not necessarily a bulletproof philosophy, but one can hope. We've been using it since like 2014 with them. The entire team got together and went and hung out with a bunch of black cats and walked under a ladder together, but we can hope it'll be better. Keenan Allen's hamstrings, I think,

are made out of, like, years old rubber bands. You know when you find a rubber band and it's really old and brittle? Like, that's what I imagine is holding that guy's muscle tissue together. Right. But I'm rooting for it to all work. Maybe we should frame the team doctor for sports betting.

It'll place a over under Austin Echler bet. when he's not looking on his phone. That would actually I guess we can maybe we should talk about this when we get to Denver, but as we've discussed the possibility of framing a franchise quarterback for a crime,

here's your crime. This is so easy. Are you kidding me? They could do it at a heartbeat. It's easier than ever. It's easier than ever. Wow. Makes you think. Really makes you think. what do you think about the

the Kellynne Moore takeover of this offense? What's that going to look like? I like Kellyn Moore. I do have one concern because I think there is a little Joe Lombardi in him. The Cowboys... Oh, no! Like, instead of...

Joe Lombardi, instead of running his little hitch routes at five yards, Kellynne Moore runs them at like 10 yards instead. Like, that's the difference. So I do think there's a chance that we see some of the same problems because there is a lot of, like, overlap in their offenses. But I think Helen Moore is a better game planner. I think he's better at setting up shot plays. That was the one thing that I think Joe Lombardi was missing with his little recipe.

Like it was, I don't think like the offensive philosophy. With his little recipe. I'm sorry. Dripping in condescensions, Peter. Yeah, they're so condescending. But like, that's the difference between him and Sean Payton, who was like the guy he coached under. What Sean Payton is so good at dialing up those deep shots, like he does all the stuff that we call inefficient, like the run, and the short throws,

but then you set it up for like a deep 50-yard pass. And we never really got that with Joe Lombardi. I think Kellen Moore comes in and is able to do that. Sean Payton is like the French laundry cookbook, like super technique. You don't, it seems like it should be simple and it seems like it wouldn't be life-changingly good,

but then there's something so particular to it that it actually works. And then I feel like you're calling I feel like you're calling Joe Lombardi like the TikTok recipe people who dump full boxes of pasta into just like dry pasta into a baking sheet and like pour milk all over it. Yes, that's him.

Do you know what I'm talking about? I always get video with this guy who like makes fun of people trying to cook. No, I know exactly what you're talking about. I didn't know the cookbook part. I knew the trash meat. cooking part. I didn't know the fancy one you were referring to at first. There's all sorts of genres for this, you know?

Yes. But I'm generally, I'm generally pro Kellynne Moore. So I think there's going to be an improvement there. Yeah, you know what? I'll take a 10-yard hitch over a five-yard any day of the week. So, and I think, I think Justin Herbert probably would too. You've been pretty, you liked the, you were happy with the Quentin Johnson pick, right? Yeah. I mostly was too. I mostly was too. I think I think that fit will be nice.

Yeah, I, the, the Kenan Allen resigning restructure, I think it was a restructure. I was not a big fan of same with Mike Williams, I think is a good player, but he's a player that's tough to build your receiving core around. And I think when you're paying them as much as they are and how committed they are now, like you're kind of locked into that. And it's, It just makes roster building to not overvalue their own players. Yeah. Right. And I think they do it a lot. So tempting. One good thing is, Storm Norton is no longer on the roster. Storm Norton.

I still think right tackles is an issue. Where is Storm Norton? Where in the world is Storm Norton? That is a good question. I don't know if he's been damaged from the league. Was Storm Norton ever on the? Oh, the Saints. Good luck, Derek.

That's all I'll say. Yeah, there we go. Was Storm Norton ever on the Panthers? Did that happen? No. I don't think so. I only know him as a charter. Okay. Yeah, I guess I only do either.

Anyway, are we missing anything on L.A.? I think that's basically, I mean, Herbert's going to get them pretty far. I felt pretty good about putting them second. Yes. I have the Broncos next, and I think that's a pretty, interesting discussion. But in my heart of hearts, I didn't really, you know, I don't think that

there's a great argument for anybody else coming in at number two other than the Chargers. Okay, let's talk about Denver, but first we'll take a short break. All right, the Broncos. So the thing that I have down is that historically, history tells us that if Sean, if Sean Peyton has a defense that ranks above 20th and DVO1, and doesn't have to start Ian Book, his team will make the playoffs. That's good. I like, those are,

that's great analytics. Those are analytics I can get on board with. I think there's decent odds that both of those things are true of the Denver Broncos in 2023. Okay, but where does, like, Jared Stidham factor into this formula? Is he an Ian book?

Like, what is the Ian book to Jared Stidham conversion rate? 70%. I think Jared Sidham is 70% of an Ian book. So how many snaps does he have to play to throw this formula off? This is my question. Like if he starts two games, then the Sean Payton. So what was it that?

I'm trying to think of how many games Ian Bookstores. But I think like three, three Jared Sidham starts probably equals. I would agree with that. Yeah. Because I think the Broncos are a team that could finish with a winning record? I think it's so easy

because of how comically bad the Russ trade went to discount how bad Nathaniel Hackett was as a coach. And how good Sean Payton is as a coach. And I think he'll get, even if he doesn't get the best out of Russell Wilson, if that version of Russell Wilson is gone forever, I think he's going to get a good version of Russell

Wilson. And I'm basing that off of late career Drew Brees. And when he was hurt and out of the lineup, the offense didn't miss a beat at all. And there's plenty of talent around Russell Wilson on this offensive depth chart that I think Sean Payton is going to be able to cook up like a fringe top 10 defense if he gets average Russell Wilson. I mean, and they fell off a little bit towards the end of last season,

but there's still a lot of defensive talent. They were 10th in DVOA last year. The division makes it tough. The conference makes it tough. but it sounds like based off that and then what you're saying, it wouldn't be crazy for this team to be

sniffing top 10 offense, sniffing top 10 defense. If both of those things are true, they're probably a pretty decent team. And I think you're right to point out that like we've all been on an expectations roller coaster with Denver where it's shockingly easy

to forget that they are in this position because they went all out to try to win a Super Bowl. Now, it didn't necessarily seem like I was going to get them there at the time, but this is still a good team. And now that they went through the Hackett experience, now that last year was just such an abject disaster, I think they are getting a little bit underrated. And I do think that even, yeah, you can look at what Sean Payton did with late career Drew

Breeze and say that that's a really. reason to think that he's going to be able to get a little bit more out of rest and I think that's absolutely true. I also think that you can look at what Russ was doing towards the end of last season, which was not great, but was better than during the hack at weeks. And it sounds like what we're saying is all they need is some incremental gains. And I think there's enough there to assume that the ship's going to be able to stay afloat. And I think that I think it helps.

help Sean Payton that this is being kind of viewed as a reclamation project. Like, it's not the same as last year where Hackett was coming in with those expectations. And then you, and you had the expectations for Russ. Like, it's the opposite now. So I think it will be easier for Sean Payton to install his offense rather than placating Russ. And when I say that, I think he's going to shape his offense to Russ, but it's not going to be Russ calling the shots as much as it seemed like he was last year, where there are reports about him having an office

and doing like really having control over the offense and it turned out really poorly. I think now you're going to see. Champagne made him get rid of the office. He's got to hang out in the locker room just like everybody else. And I don't think there's like a chance of this being

a toxic relationship just because I think Russ is very good at playing the politician. I don't think you're, you're going to hear, like, even during, yeah. Sorry, what? You don't think there's a, you don't think there's a, you don't think there's a chance this gets toxic? I really don't.

I think, I think Russ, like, say what you want about Russ, but I do think he's an agreeable person. I'll say it like that. Like, I think he will fall in line if he has to. Even in Seattle. Russ is, like, deeply angered two separate franchise defenses. That's true. But he usually has the backing of his offense outside of his receivers.

Okay, maybe I'm wrong. Now that I'm thinking this out, like Doug Ball and kind of. famously rubs most people the wrong way. And Sean Payton doesn't seem like a walk in the park either. I don't know, Paul. This is a bad take from the start. But I don't think it will be public. You don't know clear red flags.

I don't know people. I don't know relationships. No, but I think public. publicly it won't be toxic, is what I'll say. Because I think Russ was very good at it. I think Russ and Pete Carroll and that whole locker room were very good about hiding the fact that it was very toxic behind the scenes until after the fact. And like all the reports came out. I don't know.

I don't think. I don't think. I don't think. Russell screamed at Russell Wilson on the sidelines of a game last year. Remember anything Richard Sherman has said? That might have been the wrongest I've ever been, actually. you are one of the best NFL analysts doing this job. You are very rarely off base.

You have been right about things ranging from Daniel Jones to Gino Smith, just some remarkable calls by you about recent seasons of the NFL, particularly when it relates to quarterbacks. I do think that this is your professional low point. is I don't see anyone getting mad at Russell Wilson. That's, yeah, that's fair. That's fair. I'm like Sierra.

I'm just trying to hype up Russ. I'm trying to make Russ feel good, okay? I love it. I love it. Everybody won two-step. How many people do you think attend his birthday party this year? Wasn't that a thing? Like, he threw a party, and Sierra was there, and nobody came.

Which, we talked about this at the time, was on. them. Because you can be mad at Russ all you want. If Sierra's throwing a birthday party, you go to that birthday party. Right. It's very easy to avoid Russ. It's very easy to go to like a $30 million house in Denver and eat and drink for free and hang out with Sierra. And I can't believe that many members of the Denver Broncos failed to take up that mantle.

I will probably never get over it. But anyway. If memory serves me, there were 11 bathrooms in that mansion that you can hide for us. 11 bathrooms. This is how much. I think he's a tough character sometimes. I think that's what we weren't. I made the joke on Twitter at the time.

Meanwhile, Gino Smith was so popular. He was getting punched in the face when he didn't come to his teammates' parties. That was good. That was it. Wow, I forgot about that story. That was a good. That was some good stuff. What a time we've had.

Yes. We've covered a wide range of topics. We're not talking about the bathroom anymore. Now, here is my one concern. We have replaced Ezrault with Veroe with Vance Joseph. And Vance Joseph, I feel like, I feel like there was a time when he was a good defensive

coordinator, but I feel like that time has passed. And my evidence is week one of last year when he decided that he was going to cover Travis Kelsey with Isaiah Simmons one-on-one all game long. And that did not go as planned. And like he continued to have this chaotic game plan for the Cardinals who were a team that were not set up to have that. And I'm worried that we just saw this defense. They played like a sound version of defense.

They played coverage. They played zone. They didn't really blitz a lot. There wasn't a ton of man. and they're going to the complete opposite extreme of that. And I don't know if the personnel necessarily fits that. And I think the transition period is going to be a little rough. So that's my one concern.

I think the offense is going to be fine. You look at this depth chart, top to bottom, if Russ is just anything, like it's going to be a great offense. The defense, I see a little bit of disaster potential if they have some key injuries. Like if Patrick's from hand goes down, I think the whole house of cards comes down. Yeah. And that's the thing to, that's the thing to worry about, right? Because you are still going up against Kansas City twice, chargers twice. We'll talk about the Raiders in a second. I have a lot of concerns, but there's still a fair bit of firepower there. That's not a fun life to live if all of a sudden defensively things are really slipping. But still, I agree, you know, I know I'm making a lot of jokes about there being,

potential for toxicity. I think that's true, but it's not necessarily going to happen. And I do think that Peyton's track record is pretty unimpeachable with quarterbacks who aren't Ian Book. I don't mean for Ian Book to be catching as many strays as he's catching,

but that's fine. It's just sort of a question of like how far it really gets them. And if they're building the right way when, you know, this is Peyton's team now. It's, it's not Russ's, even with the financial commitment. It seems very, very clear from Peyton, also from what they did with the Siddham signing that if he just feels like it's not working, then they might turn it over. Or just that philosophically, they don't feel like, oh, here, we've got rest. We've got to go all in.

with this. I think they're looking a little bit more long term than that and linking their futures to let's let Sean Payton do his thing here. That though is like that's where I think the friction would come as if Russ doesn't feel like he's got the full

commitment then maybe you don't know what happens but they should be pretty good. It's just it's a tough division, it's a tough conference but I think they'd seem like they should be a borderline playoff team. Yeah, same. The Raiders. Let's talk about them.

Let's take another quick break and then we'll come back and do that. Okay. First question with Vegas. Does Jimmy Garoppolo have two working feet? Right. I feel like that's the big key here because if he goes down,

he doesn't play, Brian Hoyer is the backup. And I feel like at this point in Brian Hoyer's career, he's just like a walking clipboard. Like there's no way you can play Brian Hoyer in 2023.

I remember when he had to play, like, it was like a Tuesday night game when like the Chiefs and the Patriots ended up playing. In 2020. And it was really tough. And then Hoyer came as, it was just ugly.

So I think that is a valid concern because if you don't have Jimmy, this is an XFL team. Like I don't know how they win. Like they have some good pieces, but like that's the thing about this team. They have good pieces. It just doesn't make sense when you put them together.

like Devante Adams is good, obviously. You have Max Crosby, who is an elite pass threshold last year. Chandler Jones, maybe not the guy they thought they were signing, but still productive. I like Trayvon Morga a lot. There are some good pieces here, but like you put it all together, and I think this is still a team that struggles to win even six games. And I think there is some room for positive regression because they did blow a lot of leads last year, have to be a decent enough team to get out to those leads.

I just don't see what they did during the offseason. That's going to make it easier for them to close out games. I don't think replacing Derek Carr with Jimmy G. is solving that problem. Well, and they got, I mean, they got better towards the end of the season. But again, right, like, you don't want to bank too much on that based on the quarterback swap. And then again, we just, the whole thing about Jimmy's status is really, really weird.

A little while ago, McDaniels is doing a press conference and he just says, I have no anxiety. You guys might have anxiety. I don't have any anxiety. Red flag. You should have some anxiety. You are in a division with the Kansas City Chiefs at the top. Your quarterback is Jimmy Garoppelow, which some might see is problematic to begin with. On top of that, your backup is Brian Hoyer.

and the contract got signed. You delayed a news conference because there was an issue with the physical. Then it comes out that there's a waiver in place where, I mean, great news. If he's really hurt, you probably don't have to pay him all that much money. Also, that means Brian Hoyer's starting.

I do think Josh McDaniels is what. is one of the NFL coaches who would convince himself that it's okay to start Brian Hoyer for a bunch of games. But then all of us on this team that pushed a lot of chips to the middle of the table two off-season ago, has Brian Hoyer at quarterback? And is in a really bad position.

And at that point, I do think people start asking if the coach is in jeopardy, that's always a tough thing to figure out with that team specifically just because of Mark Davis, but people would certainly ask the question. So it's weird to feel this concerned about a team with this many good players on it, but I think that's justified.

Yeah, it's like the opposite of the lady dots protest too much. Like the coach is a little too chill here with the situation, the quarterback situation. I think he's more worried than he's letting on, Well, first of all, no one should ever say they have no anxiety. That's a bad personality trait. You should have some anxiety. There are many things to be anxious about.

If someone goes through their entire day and nothing makes them a little worried, I don't trust that person. So, Josh. I will say this. If you're still wearing a visor in 2023, baby you are cooler than the rest of us and you don't have anxiety. I think it's time for a rebrand, Josh. Get a hat.

grow up. Get a hat. Get a real hat. I think you guys will be better. I'm looking at the R-Lads depth chart, and Brian Hoyer's name is in all caps, which is just so funny to me. Just like Brian Hoyer.

But their offensive line outside of Colton Miller is not good. And if there's one thing Jimmy G. doesn't do well, it's reactive pressure and manage pressure. And I think even if Jimmy G is completely healthy, clean bill of health, for all 17 games, I think we're seeing, we're going to get the worst version of Jimmy G.

I know he kind of cut his teeth as an NFL quarterback in this offense, and it's the scheme that he learned first, and he looked fine when he had to play in New England. It was only like a game and a half, I think. But in theory, this is not the type of offense, not the type of passing game, at least, that you want to put Jimmy G in. I think they're going to have to have leads.

They're going to have to be able to run the ball. they're going to have to be able to call play action to get the best out of Jimmy G. And in this division with this roster, with all these question marks, it's going to be hard to play that brand of football, which is what we saw last year with this team. Like the Oakland offense last year looked nothing like the Patriots offense the year before, even though they were kind of set up to do similar things. So it's hard.

Like even if you get, even if Josh McDaniels is on his game this year and he's calling plays like he was in his prime in New England, And I think it's just going to be tough with this personnel. All right. Should we put it all together? Let's do it. I have the chiefs at number one overall. Our list as of last week, it was Bengals, Ravens, Jaguars, Lions, Falcons, Browns, Vikings, Colts, Packers, Steelers, Saints, Panthers, Titans, Bears, Books, Texans.

But I think we have a new leader in the power rankings. I am fine with that. I am fine with the Chiefs going number one. Can you imagine if just like 50 minutes into this podcast, you were like, nope, bangles are better. The Bengals and the Ravens are better. No, I think the Chiefs are clear number one. I think it gets tricky when we're placing the Chargers.

I think I'm looking at like that Jaguars Falcon spot. It's really the Jaguars. I don't know where to fit them in. I know the Jaguars just beat them in the playoffs. I'm more comfortable with the Jags being a better team. I would put the Jags over them, but I would slot them in over our beloved Falcons. What about the Lions?

Right now we have Jags, Lions, Falcons in that order. Where I had put the Chargers in was after Detroit. I think I'm fine with that. I think Detroit definitely has a higher floor. I would say that. I think the Chargers do have a higher ceiling, but I think Detroit has a higher floor. I agree with that.

Yeah. they can't get their shit together. So I think for now, that's why I put them below the lions, but they definitely, I mean, just,

Justin Herbert's the man. Like, they have a, they have a higher ceiling. I just, also, also the charter ceiling is like, not a real thing.

It's just something we talk about. It's an ideal. The charger ceiling will never be reached. It's a myth. Yeah. All right. So that, that puts them seventh behind Detroit.

Um, where does Denver go? I want to put them around Cleveland. Like, I think them in Cleveland kind of are similar teams to me, where there are certainly pieces. There's questions about the quarterback. We've seen the quarterback play well recently. There's an offensive, I don't want to give Stefanski the genius label,

but there's an offensive play caller with a good reputation. I think there's a chance that both defenses can be at least league average, which is enough. So I'm comfortable putting Denver over Cleveland. I think that's where they should slot in. Denver over Cleveland. Yeah, right before Cleveland. Just because I have more faith in Sean Payton.

And I have more faith in Russ bouncing back than I think I have in Deshawn bouncing back. I think that's right. I think that's right. All right. So that puts them at nine. And then we just have to put in the Raiders. I think like, I think below Carolina makes sense. What are you thinking?

I'm happy to put them. So I had put them. them below, I'd put them just below the saints who are just above the Panthers. But I would be, I think that there's enough there are enough questions where I would have no problem swapping those two and putting them below.

Yeah, yeah. I think I'm with you. I think right above the Panthers does make sense. I think like on you're just, you're banking on too many unknowns with the Panthers. Like they have a rookie quarterback that we've never seen play, who is also a historical outlier. And we don't know what that's going to look like.

I feel comfortable. I feel more comfortable predicting that Jimmy G. will be decent than I do, that Bryce Love will be like a league average quarterback year one. I think that you're right to, you're very right to point out the offensive line not being very good and how that could significantly affect Jimmy G's production. I default to he'll be okay if he's playing.

I'm just not sure how much he's going to be playing. Yeah, that's a good point. I mean, they have a good. receiving court. Like Jacoby Myers throwing him into like Hunter Renfro and Devante Adams, that's a very good receiving court. That's spicy. There's something there as long as he's on the field. I just, again, like that feels so up near at this point, especially when you consider his injury history. But I think that works. I think I think it's safe to assume

even if the Saints are working with a little bit less around the quarterback. I think I would rather have Carr than Jimmy at this point. We keep them above Las Vegas and then it goes Panthers, Titans, Bears, blah, blah. Yeah, that makes sense.

And then, like, one more thing I think about the Carolina of Las Vegas thing, I think the concerns we have about the quarterback staying healthy in Las Vegas, we should have about Carolina's quarterback

just because, like, smaller quarterbacks tend to get hurt more. Tyler Murray, like, still hasn't finished the season strong yet.

Small. All right. another division in the books. We will be back next week with the NFC West, closing out the West, and then we'll move on to the East, and then we will conclude this series. This has been the Ringer NFL show.

I'm Nora Pintziotti. He is Stephen Ruiz. Stephen, what do you have coming up with Benjamin Solac? It's actually related to this pot. Can Sean Payton save Russell Wilson? Oh, very excited. Wow. What synergy on the feed. That's awesome. That'll be out on Friday. Is that correct? Yes.

All right. Well, people should go check that out. I'm sure that'll be awesome. Thank you again, Stephen. And thank you, as always, to Stefan Anderson for production on this episode and to Connor and Evans and Arjuna Ram Gapal for additional production supervision.