The Ringer NFL Show - 33 Preseason Questions — Fear the Lions, Bet on Chargers, and New York is Better than L.A. (Ep. 130)

Episode Date: August 25, 2017

The Ringer’s Robert Mays and Kevin Clark continue answering 33 Preseason Questions *by focusing on the* best bets for gamblers this season, including why the leading passer won’t be named Brady, Brees, or Rodgers (05:00) and how two Chargers are your best bets to lead the league in receiving and rushing (07:30). Then, the guys discuss some truly long-shot bets worth looking at (17:00), an AFC North quarterback who could lead the league in interceptions (27:45), and which games the Jets will be favored in (32:15). Finally, Robert and Kevin pick the safest bets for over/under team win totals (36:00) and debate whether the Packers can get to double-digit wins (39:00). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It's the Ringer NFL show brought to you by DirecTV. Robert Mason, Kevin Clark here with you, and we've got some great news, NFL fans. DirecTV has expanded NFL Sunday ticket this season. So if you live in an apartment or you're an enrolled college student, now you can get an NFL Sunday ticket without a satellite. Kevin, how's that sound? It sounds pretty good.

I can't get a satellite. I can't get a satellite. There is a required type of cable in my place. This is perfect. This is exactly what I need. We can't have anything. We're millennials. We just get avocado toast.

So, you know, we have no access to. satellite soap, but we are football fans. We need football in our lives. I need NFL Sunday ticket. I need the games I want to watch when I want to watch them. You know, if you're a local Chicago guy, so you would just be watching the Bears without Sunday ticket. Yeah, and that's a terrible existence. Who would ever want that? I'd be watching the Rams and the Chargers over and over again. Is that better or worse? It's much worse. Because at least you have, you know, some variety sometimes when the Bears aren't playing. There's always going to be a Chargers or Rams game. Always again. There's no escaping. On top of our Chargers and Bears,

We also get access to our favorite thing in the world, the Red Zone Channel. I know you love the Red Zone Channel. I mean, you wrote about this last year. We did this on a previous podcast, the Red Zone Channel MVP. The Red Zone Channel is the best thing. It's the only good things all the time. It's the only good football. Like, there's a lot of crap football.

There's only good, it is football in its best form. There are no Jets on the Red Zone channel and probably no Rams or Bears either. So that's why it's good. It's just guys, all the good teams putting the ball in the end zone. If the Jets were ever on Red Zone for like more than three minutes, the good people at DirecTV would just start a new channel, just because they know that this is not football in its best form. To see if you're eligible for this stuff,

go online to NFL Sundayticket.tv, and use promo code Ringer at checkout to save 15%. This is the Ringer NFL show. Part of the Ringer Podcast Network. I'm Robert Mays. Joining me on the lines. Kevin Clark, Kevin, how are you? Real beat up at this Jaguarist quarterback competition. It's a tough time for all of us.

I mean, I feel as sad about that as I feel happy that Mitch Trubisky got the first team reps, some of the first team reps with the Bears yesterday. Brock Osweiler. What happens? I'm not, listen, I'm not saying there's going to be any, any shortage of any competitions. I'm not saying there's going to be any shortage of bad quarterbacks, but if there's no Bortles, no Osweiler this season.

It's time. I think it's time for us to move on, just as a nation. As a league? From both of those situations. I'm very happy that we're going to have a DeShon, Kaiser. I mean, I'm not happy with what's going on in Jacksonville, but how can you be? Yeah, it's a bad time to be a bad quarterback. As always, guys, we are sponsored by DirecTV and the NFL Sunday ticket package, which you can now get without a satellite, which, you know, is a good new,

it's good news for us, Kevin. So that's always fun. Absolutely. Week three of the preseason is underway. It is decision time for many of these teams, whether it's a quarterback, whether it's elsewhere. Some things will start crystallizing here as more starters get time. We're going to get some answers league wide. We're also going to get some more answers to our 33 questions that we are asking throughout the preseason. We got through 20 of them so far. We're going to have three more today. We will be back with you next Tuesday as we always are. Today, we're going to go a little specific the same way we did with our fantasy show last week or two weeks ago. I can't remember anymore, Kevin. It's all blending together. It's two weeks ago. Two weeks ago. There we go. That's

how long it was since you were on my couch, which is very sad that it's been that long. So today we're going to go with something else that is very near and dear to NFL fans hearts and that is gambling gambling is a very important part of this for many people not us kevin but many people i don't actually bet on football no me neither so it's just too much of an emotional experience just covering it in the sense that i write these stories if i write a story about the ravens and i need them to win the first three games in season for it to run like that's enough for me like i'm You root for your stories. That's weird.

I root for the stories I have in the can. That's literally the long and the short of it. Yeah. I mean, I still, I care about the bears, but it's not in a way that consumes me. The story will always be more important than the bears at this point. If I had money on it and I was rooting for a story, that would be too much. I'm going to stick to losing a lot of money gambling on golf. Just because we don't gamble, it doesn't mean we don't have some insights for you into what we think are some of the best bets.

we're going to get into some individual categories, you know, awards, season long stuff. We're going to get some long shots for tons of different categories. We do some over under team wins. And then some weird prop bets, which are always my favorite thing about every NFL season. Some of the weird prop bets may be want to become a compulsive gambler. Yeah. I mean, it's stuff that the interest that it just drives automatically is really hard to walk away from. I will admit that.

Yeah, absolutely. All right. We're going to start with some of the individual stack categories on offense. a lot of these are, these are some of my favorite bets every single year. And this is not who do we think is going to win these titles. Who's going to get the most receiving yards? Who's going to get the most rushing yards? That's a different question.

This is, who is the best bet? Who are you getting the best odds on to win these? So Kevin, let's start with the passing crown. Who do you think is the smartest just bang for your buck guy? Okay, a couple guys. Number one, this is not great odds. Tom Brady plus 550. not great odds, but I'm pretty sure he's going to win it only because he had the, I think,

the fourth most yards per game last year, didn't play a full season and has Brandon Crooks now. So, I mean, that's pretty good. I think value-wise, I'm looking at three guys all over plus 1,000. Kirk Cousins plus 1,400. Matt Stafford plus 1,600. That would be my bet. And then James Winston plus 1,600 as well. Matthew Stafford, I think they're going to let him throw as much as seemingly possible.

I could see him having sort of a not a leap season, but I mean, definitely he's going to be the heir apparent of Drew Breeze. We talk about this all the time as far as just he's 36 and he's throwing for 5,000 yards of season. That's Stafford. And I could see that out of him this year. When I'm looking at the odds, I just think the Patriots are going to be too good for Brady to be in that conversation.

I mean, they're just going to be winning too much for them to be tossing it all around. So that's why Brady doesn't make sense to me. reason is obviously he has the best odds as he should every single year. I agree that Matthew Stafford is the best bet. The smallest passing total that Matthew Stafford has had since 2011 is 4,257 yards. That's a lot. And if you think about what that offense could be with the weapons that they have, the offensive line without Decker is still a question.

But I still think their ceiling on that side of the ball is really good. And I think the floor on the other side of the ball for them is that bad. So I just feel like he's going to be slinging it. around. And the fact that he's getting that much worse of a look in this category than Andrew Locke than Matt Ryan. That doesn't make sense to me. I definitely think he is the best of value in that category. Stafford had a the second best yards per attempt last year, a 7.3. He is still, what, 29 years old. I mean, he has the chance to get significantly better. And again, I mean, he's going to start settling into some incredible statistical seasons coming up. And I think it starts this

year. We'll get into kind of the narrative, I think, could unfold for Stafford this year in another category that we're talking about. But let's stick with the just normal, the stats ones right now. The next one we're going to do is receiving yards. Who is the best bet to get the most receiving yards this year? It's got to be Antonio Brown for me. I mean, it's certainly, all right, let me start off the bad here. Drew Breeze wins the passing title every year. And so we pencil him as the champion. T.Y. Hilton won the receiving yards title last year. I'm going to go on a limb here and say with Scott Tolzeen and an unhealthy Andrew Luck. I don't think,

I don't think T.Y. Hilton is going to do it. I think Antonio Brown might just run away with. You know, Odell Beckham, I don't know what's going on with his ankle. He was number two, number three rather, behind Antonio Brown last year. I mean, this is a sort of category where I'm not even comfortable picking a dark horse because I think it's going to be brown. You have Levion Bell. Who knows when he shows up.

I guess he's showing up September 1st, you know, just in time for the first. And so I just think it's going to be a Brown heavy season. I know Martavis Brian is there, but that's only going to help, dude. That's only just going to get Brown more wide open. And if you have the chance to give it to Brown or Bryant, you're going to feed Brown. I wrote last year about this idea of sort of the super targeted receiver in the sense that nowadays, unlike 15, 20 years ago, teams are totally comfortable just giving one player 150 targets where that didn't. More.

Yeah, there used to be this notion that, oh, well, yeah. have to spread the ball around, et cetera, et cetera. Now it's just like we have Antonio Brown, we have Odo Beck and we have Hoyo Jones, who cares? Just throw it to him 15 times a game. You saw that with Marvin Harris 15 years ago, but now it's widespread. Antonio Brown is the perfect

example of a guy that a team has no problem just feeding over and over again. But I just don't think he's going to get there this year. You look at the amount of targets the Bell had last year. He had 94 and 12 games. That's a 125 target pace for the season. Brian comes back. They're clearly going to be more comfortable throwing to

him than they were to the combination of Sammy Coates and Kobe Hamilton and whatever. So that share goes away. I will say this. I think we continue to pencil in Martavis Bryant as 2014, 2015, Martavis Bryant. We just don't know what he looks like. He hasn't played football in two years. It doesn't matter to me. I mean, he's so much more talented than those guys. I think he's going to get more work than they. I get that. So you get Bell for four more games. Even if he bell plays 14 games. I just don't think the targets are going to be there for Brown to be like that pencil in guy. The same way they weren't for Julio Jones last year, right? It just sometimes when you get more.

Of course, but it just, it wasn't 2015, Julio, where he had 2,000 yards. He just wasn't getting that sort of work. I think in a way, Mike Evans is the same way. If he was going to do it, it probably would have been last season. So when I'm looking at teams that maybe don't have that secondary option, they're going to see Fed all the time, I'm thinking of two guys. One, A.J. Green is 18 to 1. and I really like that.

AJ Green at 18 to 1, I feel like it's really good odds compared to those other top tier guys that have better secondary options on their team. And the other guy to me that is kind of intriguing is Keenan Allen at 66 to 1. Whoa. You look at what happened last or two. I know Keenan Allen can't stay healthy and that has to play into. I was just about to say this is a health category. It is a big time health category and that's why his odds aren't very.

good. But if you think about it on the target basis, Keenan Allen two years ago got 89 targets in eight games. That's a 180 target pace. He would have been on, he would have had 1450 yards on the season. That would have been the most in the league if it were last season. Last year, he's in the first game. He had seven targets before he got hurt. He got hurt like a third quarter of that game. Philip Rivers looks for him. And I think this is an opportunity based category. And if he's going to get those sort of opportunities,

if Mike Williams is hurt, you know, I don't think that Hunter Henry and Antonio Gates are the guy that's going to necessarily take away from him. I just feel like there's nobody else in that range that's going to even get close to the work that Keenan Allen is going to get. So if you're looking for somebody that's a shot in the dark,

I think he's a fun one. That's intriguing. I like that. Go big. All right. Let's go to the rushing title next. This is one of my favorite ones. For some reason,

I've gotten every year I get one of these right. And when the Sean McCoy, had his first year with Chip, I picked him to win it. And then the next year I picked Jeremy Hill, which was not correct if you're curious. So I don't know. I either have a really good feel for this one or no feel at all. So this one's interesting because obviously Ezekiel Elliott opened up as the favorite over the summer. Of course. That's not going to happen anymore. And then you have, you know, certain situation. Is Jordan Howard going to do it again? I mean, he was, I think he's plus. I think he's a good bet. 10 to 1. Are you picking him? No, I'm not going to pick him.

I think that's a solid one, though, just because we'll see what sort of work Terry Cohen gets. I think they like him in Chicago, the fourth round pick. I don't know if he'll get enough to take away a huge chunk of Jordan Howard's work. Yeah. So what I was saying was so you get, you get Elliot off the board, and then you have Levion Bell, who was right in that category. I'm not totally sure you'd be comfortable picking him for this just because there's a couple things. number one, what is his sort of carry to reception breakdown? I mean, that could change on a dime.

That's the same, by the way, with David Johnson. David Johnson was an absolute stud their running game, but when you start getting into how flexible is he, what did they want to split them out wide more, that sort of thing? And that gets complicated with the bet like this. And then beyond that. It's the odds, though. I mean, they're both plus 300. It's just, it's not worth it.

That's not nearly, really freaking good. Oh, of course. But what I'm saying is, is Lishon McCoy, five times less likely to win the rushing title than David Johnson? Absolutely not. Right, yeah. And so I but I also still have a little bit of hesitation about what Bell is going to look like in September

and then you don't win the rushing title if you struggle for even three games off the bat. So my guy Melvin Gordon. I just think he is the one who A, they're going to give him the ball a lot and you know everybody else to me has a lot of question marks. I know you

say you're a guy and we'll talk about him first second. I pick McCoy. Just because even if I'm worried about him from efficiency basis, I don't think their offense is going to be the running game that it was last year. But I still think with that running back depth chart, now that Gillisley's gone, I mean, Jonathan Williams is behind him. They really don't have anybody that's going to take carries away from him consistently. And if they don't, there is no way he's, I mean, he's 16 to 1. That's like three odds. He shouldn't be that high when guys like David Johnson and Levyon Bell are three to one. It just shouldn't be that way.

From an odds perspective, I love the bet from a practical perspective. I just worry like hell about that Bill's team. I just don't know what the hell is going to happen there. Are they going to trade more guys? For the price. There's no way I'm going to go up and get him in a fantasy league for where he's being drafted. But in this situation,

it's almost the opposite of that, right? Which is kind of why it almost proves the fantasy thing. Like, Vegas doesn't see a lot from him, but I still think this is way too pessimistic. compared to what the other guys are. I agree with that. If I was putting money down on Shady McCoy, I would be slightly hesitant.

I'm still hesitant to all these guys. I mean, I'm my second one, by the way. He's number two for me. He's an 18 to 1. I love it. Same thing.

Melvin Gordon isn't six times less likely to win the rushing title than David Johnson. I totally agree with you. And I mean, David Johnson, again, you cannot overstate the impact of just the fact he's so flexible in the passing game that he may not just get the rushes to win this title.

There aren't a lot of other. guys here that I like for the money. I think that Furnett is like a sneaky pick just because I think he's going to get so much work that if there's a say there's a down here. Say it's a season where the rushing to King

runs for 1,250 yards. If they give him 310 carries, that's pretty decent at 33 to 1. Why would they give him 310 carries? I know and that's not a shot at your point. It's a shot at the fact that they might give him 310 carries.

The other guy that- ruin his career right off the bat. I'm probably a little bit too excited about, but I think the odds may be right. Delvin Cook at 50 to 1 is intriguing. I mean, that's, that's a lot. That's big odds. That's the same odds as Thai Montgomery has. Delvin Cook's getting more work than Thai Montgomery. I promise you that.

Wow. That's weird. Yeah. Why's everyone so down on Cook? I don't know, man. I think they're going to give them the ball a lot. I think they're going to try to keep Sam Bradford in one piece. We're not even, is everyone just completely out on Jay-Jai?

Yeah, I think that was kind of fluky last year. He had a lot of big games compared to small games on a per carry basis. If you look at the median runs, I don't think it's as consistent as I want it to be. I don't think the fact that he's 10 to 1 and LaShaul McCoy's 16 to 1, give me McCoy all day. I agree. Yeah. Before we move on, I want to point out that for over 20 years, DirecTV has been the exclusive home to NFL Sunday ticket. The only way to get every live game every Sunday.

Good news, NFL fans. Direct TV has expanded the service. If you live in an apartment or are an enrolled college student, now you can get NFL Sunday ticket without a satellite. To see if you are eligible, go online to NFL Sundayticket. TV and stream every NFL Sunday ticket game this season to follow your favorite team no matter where you live. Use promo code Ringer at checkout to save 15%.

Again, that's NFL Sundayticket.com. Promocode Ringer. All right, Kevin, let's keep these going. here with our 22nd question of the preseason. Two thirds of the way done, man. Here we go. We're getting there. This was a fun one.

This is one of the ones I like to do every year. We got into some of these with the actual categories, but independent of category, who are you looking at as your favorite long shot bets to win some of this stuff? So there's a couple of them here. I thought it was interesting that the Patriots to go 19 and 0 is 200 to 1. I mean,

that's just a fun one. I mean, that's just a really fun thing to have in your pocket the entire year. I don't know why it's that high. I mean, listen, I don't think it's going to happen, but it's not Lester City. It's not Connor McGregor here. I mean, like, this can happen. It almost happened a decade ago, and if it pays out 200 to 1, that's pretty good.

By the way, the other one I like, odds that one team goes 16 and 0 is 40 to 1. I think that's, I mean, two years ago. So odds of the Patriots go 16. No, I mean, two years ago, the freaking Panthers almost. So there were a couple of plays away from going 16 and no. I mean, it's going to happen again. So I like those two. You know, I got to tell you, I really like,

I think that the Redskins and the Lions, neither of these teams are going to win the NFC, but I kind of like the bet. The Detroit Lions, for some reason, are 33 to 1 to win the NFC, and the Redskins are 25 to 1. The only teams worse than those three are the Bears, Rams, and Niners,

who obviously are not worth. looking at. The jump is incredible. The jump is incredible. The Rams are twice as less likely. I don't know how to say that. The Rams have half the odds that the Lions do. Both of those teams were pretty darn good last year. I mean, the Lions made the playoffs, obviously. Stafford is a good

quarterback. Kirk Cousins is a good quarterback. I think they're much more likely to win the NFC than some of these teams. You know, the Eagles, the Saints, the Vikings, I mean, the Giants. I mean, I just don't understand how the Giants are almost three times more likely to win than

than the Washington Redskins. I agree with you on that. I do think the Eagles are a pretty good bet there. I think the Eagles at 22 to 1 is a treating to me. The Eagles are almost on the plane with the Redskins and Lions. They're a part of this group. What I'm saying is, I mean, I just, I like those longer odds as a bet. The Eagles to me are my favorite bet of that group at 22 to 1.

Minnesota is second at 16 to 1. I really like Minnesota. The thing about this bet and the overarching point about the NFC is there's no Patriots. The Packers are the closest thing. the Packers looked like a pretty mediocre team for the first, what, 11 weeks of last season, and you just don't know about their line. You don't know about their defense. You don't know if Ty Montgomery is going to be healthy enough to give them 16 games of a running attack.

And so I would guess that they win the NFC, but it's not like there's a Patriot Steelers, you know, runaway group there. And so I think I would pound the NFC with sort of sleeper teams because that's what's going to happen, man. There's going to be some weird NFC outcomes no one sees coming. it's kind of funny because a lot of my long shots are tied to that idea even if it's indirect yeah so for a defensive player of the year i'm looking at these odds and one of my favorite bets is deneel hunter at 22 to 1 and i know that it's he had 10 and a half sacks last year he only had about 415 pass rushing snaps he's going to be more of a full-time starter this year say it's up to

515 and gets five more sacks the rate of that is is high but there's no doubt in my mind he is the talent to be a 17-sac guy. And if he is, those are the types of people that can win defensive player of the year. The other guy in that same wool to me, Clowny's also 22-1. That's juicy to me. That's pretty damn good when, like, Ryan Shazir has those odds. And Aaron Donald is a 14-1. We don't even know he's going to play.

I really like Clowny at 22-1 as well. So I think those two. I think it's going to be interesting when Clowny gets 20 sacks and they give defensive player of the year to Watt who played four games. You know what? He probably deserved it. He inspired Clowny to that greatness. On the sideline telling them, open and hollering.

Great. So the other one that is kind of tied into your alliance thing. And in part, what I talked about was Stafford earlier. Matthew Stafford is 50 to 1 to win the MVP. Yes. I love it. And we talk about this all the time around this time of year that narrative drives so many of these awards. It's just going to be a good quarterback who was good. on a team that got better.

And I think that the Lions aren't going to be a good enough team to eventually get to that plane. I just don't think that they're going to win enough games to have the MVP of the league on their team. The lion's going to go 2 and 14 and we have to burn this pod. It's probably so true. It's just quietly removed from the archives.

Yeah, so Matthew Stafford is 50 to win the MVP. And what I'm thinking about is what happened with Matt Ryan last year. You know, we have this narrative that builds of this guy who's been around forever but finally takes that next step and he's one of the games elite quarterbacks, and we like that. And I don't know if, I don't think the Lions are going to have a historically good

offense, but I could see him throwing for a lot of yards because the defense is bad. Maybe if they eke out a couple of those games, they win 10 or 11, they make the playoffs. It just doesn't make sense to me that he has the same MVP odds as Adrian Peterson or Eli Manning or, you know, Antonio Brown. That's just, that doesn't fit. So in terms of the value, I just think that he's the best kind of throw it. on the dartboard of those guys. Little more talent on that lion's offensive people think.

I think Golden Tate has a lot more broken tackles. I want to say 15 more broken tackles than anybody in the last two years. They have a diversified group of skills at wider. You love Theoretic. I love Theoretic. The lion got better. I mean, I just kind of like it, man. I don't think they're going to win the

NFC North, but I could see a nice little lions run this year. And I think if that's even in play. coaching. Yeah, that's the biggest thing about them. That's why I like them. The bell of check of the NFC. The other one I'll throw out there again, just kind of in the narrative track. Dirk Cutter is 21 to win coach of the year.

And, but what do we do with coach of the year? We give it to a team that didn't make the playoffs that surprises in a way that we don't necessarily expect. The, you know, this playoff team that kind of comes from obscurity to be one of the talks of the season. And I think that they have such a good chance of doing that. that the odds you're getting for him are just really good. Like, I don't think he should be, have less odd.

His odds shouldn't be worse than Anthony Lynn, who's at 16 to 1. Do you remember when Coach of the Year? So that's always how, that's the default coach of the year thing, is just we're going to take the guy who improved the team. But do remember the year that Tony Spirano improved the Dolphins and Mike Smith improved the Falcons and nobody knew what to do? Who won it that year? I don't remember.

I believe Mike Smith won it. Yeah, they were the same team that it was like face off. Like they just said the media members were just like, I don't know what's happening. There's two coaches of the year. They did the same thing. The other one in there that I kind of like, based on some of the conversations we've had recently.

First of all, two guys. One, Marvin Lewis's team is too good for him to be at 50 to 1. That team could win 10 games and he just shouldn't be that low. The other guy, Hugh Jackson is 50 to 1. I'm going to short that. I'm going to be on the other side of that. What if the pounds win eight games? I am rearranged my life.

become a bookie just on that bet to just take that money. This is the long shot category, man. It's all about having some fun. I'm enjoying it. Those are the two guys I think that it just does Marvin Lewis especially. I mean, if that team, oh yeah, I like a double-digit games, your coach

shouldn't be 50 to 1 to win. I'm in on Marvin Lewis. I have a story running on the ringer.com on Friday by the time this gets up about run-pass options and it's a play that's really going to have a moment in 2017 and the Bengals, even though no team really did enough run pass options when you consider how effective they are. And you can read the story to sort of get

an idiot gritty on this. But the Bengals do it better than anybody. The Bengals may have a nice little run this season just based on some of their play calling. AJ Green, 18 to 1, they're in the receiver. I will say this. The run pass options may hurt AJ Green. Wow. You know what? 18 to one. I'll still take the ads. Coming up, we're going to try our hand at some more obscure NFL prop bets, including how many games the Jets will be favored in. It's my favorite one. We're also going to answer some questions about the team over under totals that we feel the best about. But first, we're going to take a quick break for our sponsors. Football season is right around the corner, and it's time to fire up those fantasy leagues again. I don't know about you guys, but I've been

pretty frustrated with the same old platforms for my season-long leagues. There just hasn't been a whole lot of innovation in that space. Every year, I find myself hoping for a platform that works well across both web and mobile. Won't go down on week one and doesn't bombard me with stupid ads. Seems like a simple ask, right? Well, buddy minds show me an app called Sleeper which hosts fantasy football leagues. And let me tell you, it is an absolute game changer. Not only doesn't have a full suite of features to help the commissioner, which we all know is a tough job for anybody,

Sleeperbot also looks amazing. It is a super cool draft board which you can cast to any TV, a fun chat interface that won't have to send you back to email to go back and forth with your smack talk, and an app that feels just more modern, social, and fun than the others. On top of that, they're giving out championship rings to each league winner this year. I know that's something I would want, just, you know, for bragging right purposes.

Now that I've seen it, I'm switching my league onto Sleeperbot this season, and would encourage you to also check out the app. Just search for Sleeperbot in the app store or on the web. Your commissioner and your leadmates will thank you. We also want to tell you about the Ringer's Game of Thrones live after show Talk to Thrones. All season long, Andy Greenwald, Mother of Dragons, Mallory Rubin, Chris Ryan and our very own maister, Jason Concepcion, have been coming to you live after the East Coast airings of Game of Thrones season 7,

and we'll continue with the season finale this Sunday. Talk the Thrones streams exclusively on Twitter and Periscope right after Game with Thrones ends and can be found on the Ringer's Twitter handle at Ringer. They'll be reacting at the same time as you, contextualizing the events and explaining everything that just unfolded. Again, the show is called Talk the Thrones and you can stream it live after the East Coast airings of Game with Thrones on Twitter and Periscope at Ringer. Okay, as a bonus today, we're going to look at some of the weirder prop bets that we've managed to find. Shout out to our producer, Sean Kagan for finding some really weird shit, because I would not have found this on my eggs. Kigs coming up big. It is greatly appreciated.

It is the dark underbelly of profits. I think this is like some dark web shit. Yeah, some people doing this stuff. It'll solicit some sort of help. I mean, you know what? Maybe not. Maybe you got to figure it out more than the rest of us do. But we're going to start with one that's not as obscure, but I still think is very fun. And that is a which quarterback will throw the most interceptions this season. Obviously, the favorite for this category is Blake Bortals, who is five and a half to one. You know, this is, this is no longer the starting quarterback. This is a big time health category and it's, and it's a opportunity category. When we were talking a little bit earlier, I was trying to think, you know, Blake Bortals is the Levy on Bell

of this category. If everything breaks right, if Blake Bortles gets 16 games, yeah, he's going to lead the NFL interceptions. In the same way, Levy on Bell is probably going to lead the NFL in all-purpose yards. But maybe he gets the hook. He may not even start week one. That's a disaster. It's a disaster. If you were one of the sharps who got in early on Bortles,

leading the NFL interception, if you went out during March Madden said, I'm all in on Bortles. You're screwed now. I mean, you would have taken that at plus 550 every single time. It's a tough break for those guys. And a tough break for everybody, really. I mean, it was a sure thing, like three months ago.

So obviously James Winston's going to be involved in this category most years. he's six to one, he's right there with the favorites. Eli Manning is tied with portals. Those guys understandable. You know, that's not shocking that those are at the top. I'm going for some guys deeper down this board. My two favorites actually have the highest odds that I'm looking at right now. Ben Rathesberger is at 25 to 1.

And even though I like that offense and I think the Steelers are going to be really good, Rathlisberger has no qualms about throwing the ball of the other team. In three of the last four seasons, he's thrown at least 13 interceptions. that puts him in the running for this. I'm not saying he's going to win it, but there's no way he should have worse odds than Drew Breeze. That just doesn't make any sense to me. And the other guy who has gotten better in recent years,

but I still think, you know, likes to sling it every once in a while is cousins. He's also 25 to 1. If that offense takes us downfield more and more and more. I think that he's another guy that could absolutely win that. He threw 12 last year even when that offense was good. let's say they sputter a bit without Deshawn Jackson.

If Jordan Reed gets hurt a little bit, I think he absolutely is in the running for this. There's no way he should be 25 to 1. So here's the thing. There's not a lot of guys on this list. We're going to play 16 games. And I worry a little bit about that. Deshawn Watson, Bavada has him at plus 1,200.

I don't think Deshaun Watson's going to play enough games for this. Bortle's the same way. Eli is actually an intriguing bet. He's at plus 55. He's at plus 550. That's intriguing to me because you know he's going to play 16 games. You know he's going to get frustrated. It's going to have like four three interception games that the Giants will win three of them somehow.

I kind of like the field, man. Vovada has the field at plus 275. And I feel like we're going to have a sleeper season. Cutler isn't on here. So the field bet might be pretty good. A hundred percent. You have Cutler. I mean, what if they go change?

had Henny the entire season. Yeah, that's a good one too. The field, the odds aren't good enough for the field though. I know. That's because they know that there's a cutler or a Henny lurking. There's always a guy. There's always a guy who's ready to make the leap as far as interceptions go. Golf is plus

600. I don't like it. Golf's going to get the hook at some point. Oh, I disagree with that. I just think they'll take it out of his hands too often for him to throw it enough to throw 20 interceptions. I don't know. I feel like there's somebody lurking off the board here that's just going to, I mean, I mean, Scott Tolzine is going to play in the NFL. Scott Tolzing may have this wrapped up by September 20th. There's no,

he's playing enough. I get it, but there's no way he's playing enough. All right. So, this is a fun one that was in that list that we got in the Jared Gough spirit of things. Goff is five to three to throw more interceptions than touchdowns. That is a fun bet and it's hilarious, but those odds aren't nearly good enough. No, I would stay away from anything involving Jared golf. Yeah, there's no way. Except the interceptions. I just don't know what's going to happen.

I just, the Rams, I don't want to be, I don't want to watch the Rams. I don't want to see the Rams. If I, I don't want to go within five miles that stadium. It's just, I'm not, I'm not in on the Rams. All right. This next one is also just sticking with the depressing

but fun as hell categories. The over under on the number of games the Jets will be favored this season. It is at 0.5, And that is perfect. Vegas doing an excellent job of getting equal action on both sides. What do you think about this one? Because I'm all right.

So I'm looking at the jet schedule right now. Yeah. And it's kind of brutal, to be honest with you. After their by week, I don't see it at all. Panthers, Chiefs, Broncos, Saints, Chargers, Patriots. Nope. Before that, bills to open the season, just, it's too early for them to be favored. Raiders, Dolphins, Jaguars.

I got one. Browns. At Browns. No, no, no, no, no. Thursday night. at home against the bills. That's the one I was going to point to. Now, I think the bill, I loved, I want to reiterate this.

I love the bills. I love Sean McDermott. I love Brandon B. and I love the talent. I like Tyrod Taylor more than most people do. Having said that, I called for them to go in full tank mode last week. I think they might do some combination of trying to win games to compete while accumulating a little more draft picks.

And so for me, I could see by November that there may be, maybe, you know, two-win team and then Vegas pounds them. I just, I feel like that. That feels like a one-point Jets, Jets line. That one, I think I would say over just because that's in play. We'll see what happens with the Browns.

I think they're going to be better than most people do, but who knows? And then the other one is, let's say the Jags just get hammered in their first three games. They have the Jags at home in week four. So I think that, I don't know if they'll ever be favored by more than three. like if home field advantage will play into this

but I think there are too many games on the table that are possible for you to go under don't sleep on like the Chargers being horseshit on Christmas Eve I will sleep on that I think the Chargers are going to be just fine okay I'm just saying they don't need to be that bad for it to be I mean I'm talking about

if they if going into week 16 they've won like four games it doesn't matter how bad the Jets are all right let's stick with the Jets a little bit here this one's really enjoyable this one is the New York teams against the Los Angeles teams of which there are two now,

which is still surprising to everybody. The odds are 11 to 9, so just over even, that the Giants and Jets will finish with a combined record that's better than the Rams and Chargers. Do you think this is, would you take this at even odds pretty much?

That the New York teams will have a better record than the Rams and the Chargers. I think that's going to happen. I don't. I think the Rams and Chargers win more combined games than the Jets. I think they both combined to win.

10 games, quite frankly. I totally disagree with you. I think the Rams win six. I think the Chargers win nine or 10. I think the Giants won. This is a Chargers. This is a Chargers bet. Because if either of these teams

who win 12 games, the bet is over. Yeah, I don't think that happens for the Giants, though. I don't think it happens. I don't, I completely disagree with you. I think that the Giants have a much better chance of making the playoffs and the Chargers do. I'm totally out on that.

Okay. the chargers play in a division i think is a little tougher i think the i think the nfcces is going to be weird this year i could see them stealing some wins i don't know and the jets do you think the jets it's not the jets are going to go oh and 16 they're going to win like two games okay so the jets win two games let's say two games for the jets with that which i think based on the conversation we just had is pretty generous so do you think the rams let's say the rams won five games you think the giants are three games better than the chargers no i here's here's Here's what I would think.

I think it's probably going to be 11 to 10. And it's going to be the Giants win eight or nine games. The jets fill out the rest. And then the chargers and Rams combined for 10 wins. I would say four. I'm going to L.A. I'm going to say four and six. If I can bet on the L.A.

teams, I would do it. All right. Let's get back to our actual questions. Our last one of the day is the always interesting over underwin totals for each team. We're going to go with our favorite ones of these. And Kevin, why don't you start with a team that you've mentioned before, but you think he's just worth hitting again here. Okay, so there's two of them for me. They're both

7.5 over under. I think the Redskins go over because, again, I've mentioned this many, many times. I see everybody in the NFC East in that 8 to 10 win range. I don't really see anybody running away with it this year, and I think everybody's pretty good in the NFCE.

So I think it's going to be, so everybody is just going to have between 8 to 10 wins. It's going to be weird. It's going to come down to week 17 like it did what in 2012 where it was the Redskins against the Cowboys for the Division title. And so I see like nine wins out of the

Redskins. The Dolphins seven and a half as well. Jay Cutler is going to get you to eight wins. The defense is good. The skill position players are good. You're going with good for the Dolphins defense. That is a statement you want to make. You can stick by that one?

They have talent, I mean. Okay. They met the playoffs last year with Ryan Tannahill. Those are two different things. I am not going with good for the Dolphins defense. I think the dolphins have a high ceiling. I also would not put a dollar on them. I think you're going to get to eight wins. I think you're there.

All right. I mean, the defense was middle of the road last year. It was better than the, it was better than their offense. I disagree with that. I think their offense is better than their defense. I'm in. I'm in on there.

I'm in on Indomac and Sue. I think the, I think Adam Gase is good. I don't know. I agree with those things. They made the playoffs last year. I lived a Jay Cutler life for a very long time, my friend. Having that team just penciled in as a 500 or better squad

is not something I'm willing to do. I don't know. I'm not as hot on this as the Redskins thing, but I just think Jay Cutler's destiny is to lead the Dolphins to 8 and 8, 9 and 7 season. I got two overs as well. One, the Browns at 4 and a half is too low. It's just too low.

No matter what you, think they're going to be can't do it i can't do i can't do that i think they have too much talent on the offensive side of mad more went two and one for the dolphins last year i'm aware of that and i wrote earlier this offseason that i didn't know jaco had a hundred and five quarterback rating and four appearances every point i've made in the last 10 minute stance about the dolphins i'm not backing off of any of this jarvis landry threw a pass right year. Maybe that's, I'm just looking at the quarterback stats here. You got Tanna Hill Moore and Jarvis Landry. I like Adam Gase. I'm in. This is an Adam Gase bet. That's fair. I would also bet on

Adam Gase. I also have watched Jay Culler a bunch with Adam Gase. All right, the Browns's over four and a half to me. I think that there is six win team. I feel like that you're getting good value. They're not the Browns we've been used to. They're over as under's been like four last year, two years ago. It just doesn't make sense. The other one that I think is too low is Green Bay at 10. I just don't see outside of like a bad year how the Packers win less than 11 games. I think they're right in the hunt to win the NFC. I just feel like I see them winning at least 11. And when I can picture it at least a game above where the odds are,

it's just hard for me to say that there aren't better options than that. Yeah, I mean, I don't know, man. It looked pretty shaky at times last year. I'm not saying they're going to do that again. I'm just saying that it's the Packers are not infallible. They're not, again, they're not the Patriots. They're not the Patriots, but they've won double-digit games. how many years in a row.

Yeah, but I'm just, in the playoffs, how many years in a row? This is, it's an Aaron Rogers health bet. Since 2009, the Packers have won less than 10 games one time. They almost,

I mean, look, this is a futures bet, this is not a past bet. It's a futures bet. Is there any reason to think, the best indicator of future performance is past performance?

Is there anything that happened last season, especially at the end, that would lead you to believe that Packers will be a less, The first 10 weeks of the season when they look like horse shit? I'm saying at the end of last year, is there anything about that team? At the end of last year, they looked great. Of course.

Listen, I like the Packers. I think that I said 20 minutes ago, they're probably going to win the NFC, but 10 wins is a lot. Nine wins get you in the playoffs. It's not that many when you think they can win the NFC. 10 to me is low for them. I think they're going over that. I don't know what the over under for the Jaguars is, but I'm picking under. I think it's five and a half.

Under. Under. Yeah, that one's, I know it might be six and a half, honestly. Under. It's six and a half, which I think is born of all the players they add in the offseason. That's too high for me. I mean, it's just, there's no way to feel good about that considering the quarterback situation. I want like what happened with the Raiders last year where they just totally skip over guy.

If Chad Henney gets hurt, I want them to start Brandon Allen. Why don't just start Brandon Allen now? Can he possibly be worse than Chad Honey? I bet he could be, actually. Yeah. probably is true. That's a world in which I don't want to exist, the one where there's a worst quarterback that Chet Henney.

I was calling Brandon Allen, Matt Allen for like a week. It doesn't really matter, does it? If I called Brandon Allen Matt Allen to his face, he would probably answer to it. Yeah, Brandon Allen knows you don't know who he is. Absolutely. All right, that's it. That's all we got.

23 down, 10 to go. We're going to be in single digits by the start of next week's show. We'll be back Tuesday with another batch as we finish out our 33 questions of the preseason. As always, thank you very much for listening to the ringer NFL show presented by DirecTV. We'll talk to you guys soon.