The Ringer NFL Show - 33 Preseason Questions — Out of Luck, the New Watt, and Super Bowl Picks (Ep. 135)

Episode Date: September 5, 2017

The Ringer’s Robert Mays and Kevin Clark answer the final four of 33 Preseason Questions leading up to opening night, including why Andrew Luck's absence could cost the Colts their season (03:45) and how one transaction from this weekend makes an NFC West team an instant Super Bowl contender (05:00). Then, the guys make their predictions for Coach of the Year (10:00), Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year (14:00), and MVP (24:30). Finally, Robert and Kevin pick all 12 playoff teams (31:30) and make their Super Bowl LII predictions (49:30). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It's The Ringer NFL show brought to you by DirecTV. Kevin Clark and Robert May is here with you, and we've got some great news for NFL fans. Direct TV has expanded NFL Sunday ticket this season, so if you live in an apartment or enrolled in college, you can now get Sunday ticket without a satellite. Big time. This is extremely important news for both of us. We cannot get a satellite. We're millennials. That's just how it works.

We can't have anything. No. Now we have every NFL game at our fingertips. You can watch more than the Chicago Bears. which is very important to my long-term happiness. And health? Yes. Well, health is already out the window.

I've just kind of given up on that side of things. And I can watch more than just the Los Angeles Rams and Los Angeles Chargers. Which is still baffling. I didn't know their training camps were eight minutes apart from each other. I just did this recently. It makes no sense. There was no team at Los Angeles, another or two, within like six minutes of each other. I know that's not where they play and everything else, but I still don't get it.

Wait, the Rams practice? Yes, they do. I watched it happen. Okay. Plus, you can get out. access to our favorite thing in the world, the Red Zone Channel, which, incidentally, Sammy Watkins will never be on. The Rams will never be on the Red Zone Channel.

Now, there's another channel maybe coming where he's just indicating that he's open and never gets the ball. Watkins Cam. They have defensive touchdowns on the Red Zone Channel, though, right? On delay. Sicilianna saying, what happened at the Coliseum? No Aaron Donald, though, so I assume those are going to be fewer and further between as well. There will be none of those.

Golf pick sixes. To see if you're eligible, go online to NFL Sunday Ticket.tv and use promo code Ringer at checkout to save 15%. We're also brought to you by Miller Lite. Miller Light is brewed to not only taste great, but also be less filling. It's brewed with only 96 calories, so you can enjoy it from one game through the next. It's been the original light beer since it first showed up in the stands back in 1975. Come to the Ringer NFL show, part of the Ringer podcast network. I'm Robert Mays. Joining me in the line, it's Kevin Clark. Kevin, how are you?

Could you use a little more preseason games? Yeah, that's what I want. That's what I want. Three more weeks of the third stringers. Because of Labor Day, we were recording this on Tuesday morning, which means we have two days until regular season football is here. And I'm very excited. I don't know about you.

I'm extremely excited. To watch those regular season games, especially on Sunday, remember that we were sponsored by DirecTV and an awesome NFL Sunday ticket package. Kevin, we're here. three questions. We have 29 down. We will get to our final four today. Including the only question that matters. Who is going to win the Super Bowl this season? Plus a couple others that I've interested in. I thought, wait a way. I was talking about comeback player of the year.

Oh yeah. That's definitely the most important one. And coach of the year where we debate Mike Malarkey. And after this guys, this is it for preseason coverage. On Friday, we will be in our regular season schedule. We'll still be coming to you on Tuesday and Friday, but not with these questions because obviously we will have no more of them. we'll just have a fresh batch of questions. Yeah, they won't be as regimented. We'll still have questions. They just won't be in a pack of 33.

This is not the end of the rubric of asking questions on the podcast. That we will never ask another question. That's not exclusive to this. From here on out, it's only answers on the Ringer NFL show. The Ringer Answer show. So we were going to do mostly just looking forward questions, but I felt like after what happened this weekend, there was no way to do that in good faith.

So much stuff happened because of the cut down. and everything else. It just felt like there's a ton more movement than we normally get on the final weekend before the season starts. So I feel like Kevin, we have to ask with the quarterback situation for the Colts, with some of the bigger name trades and pickups that happen, which happening from this weekend of the preseason would have the most impact on the year. Well, it's not the Colts, number one, because we've known that Scott Tolzine is going to start for a while there. I mean, even though, that's terrible in practice. It's true. To me now, though, that it's hammered, that it's real.

that does affect it. Because it pretty much in that division, I feel like the Texans are going to be good enough on defense. I think the Titans are going to be enough overall that if he misses like four games, it could already put them out of it. Sure, sure. Okay, so the answer is Sheldon Richardson to the Seahawks.

That's a good answer. Yeah. So essentially what happened is that the Seahawks took the best defensive line in football or among the best front seven in football, rather, and they added a top 15 defensive front seven piece in the NFL, which I think is...

It's hard to say that just because he might be better than we even know? No, I'm being conservative. I'm being conservative. Top 15 front seven piece overall. Maybe he's a top five defense. I don't know. There's a couple things to be cognizant of when you look at this acquisition. Number one, Sheldon Richardson was playing out of position.

This is not a surprise with the Jets, but, you know, in the spring, Casey Rogers, the defensive coordinator basically said, okay, Sheldon Richardson, he's going to go back to three technique. His linebacker days are over. They had said that for a couple of years now. He's been playing linebacker in a weird way that made no sense. He's a three technique. So what happened when he gets to Seattle? The first thing he says is he'll be playing three technique.

The first thing Pete Carroll says he'll be playing three technique. And so not only to no one give a crap about the New York Jets the last couple of years, but he hasn't even been in a position to thrive. That Jets' defensive line has been, you know, they have so many talented pieces that it's been sort of a work in progress to get them to mesh. And now you have Sheldnerston in his ideal role on a team or they're just going to sort of let him pin his ears back and do what he does best. I,

I'm, it takes a lot for me to just nerd out on football and I am nerding out on the Seahawks defense right now. It's really fun. And the last time I watched, I mean, I've watched him with the Jets, obviously, but the first introduction I got to Shelton Richardson.

First of all, he was the number one recruit in Missouri and one of the top recruits in the nation. When Mazu got him, it was a huge deal. I watched him play in high school that year and he returned kicks. It was the scariest thing I've ever seen in my entire life. Is he going to return kicks for the Seahawks? You know what?

the hell not. At first, at first I wondered if they were just going to convert him to offensive line. So Danny and I were texting back and forth, Danny Kelly, and you were also, you're on the strut as well, but just about the fact that wow, wow, you didn't even, what, what was that? Well, Danny asked me about it specifically. Danny and I were on the town. You were also on the thread. That's fair. Danny asked me about watching Richardson at Mizzou. Sure. And when he got drafted, he had been just a solely a three technique in Missouri's defense. And he was so active. He was so good at it. So when he went to the jets, I was like, well, we'll see how they use him.

And they've done it in interesting ways, but I agree in that it hasn't been in the way best suited for him to succeed. This will be. I think a lot of scheme things in general can be overrated and over-analyzed. I don't think this is one of them. I think when a guy who can thrive as a three technique

is playing a linebacker, that is not a good indication of his best skill set. It's just like when Jarrell Casey does all that stuff in Tennessee, a guy that can do it but might not be best doing all of it. I feel like that's, Richardson's very similar to that. and him. So their nickel pass rush package right now is going to be, I don't even know.

I guess Michael Bennett is sticking to stay outside because you bring Frank Clark in inside. They can do it however they want to. It's going to be ridiculous. And when you consider that they're secondary and that back seven is still intact, and this only makes you more excited about the prospects of the Seahawks being

maybe the best team in the NFC. Yep. I mean, it's, this changes. our conversation later on on divisions, Super Bowl teams. I mean, I really, this side of the Patriots, I don't see a team that stacked. And so, I mean, it was a good trade in that we talked about them cutting Jermaine Curse or letting Germain Curse go.

So you lose Jermaine Curse and his deal. There's some guarantees you're going to have to pay that. Daddy Kelly's been complaining about Jermaine Curse's deal for a long time. So it's, you get that off the book. I mean, obviously you don't get the guaranteed part off the books. Sure. But you get him off the books long term. you have players that can sort of replicate what he does,

even if he was a reliable piece for them. And you only have to give away what, a conditional second, maybe a third for Richardson. Yep. It's not bad, man. But you'll take that every single time.

And he's the kind of player that can just, it's going to be really fun to watch that group. Mine isn't quite to that level. I think Richardson is the answer. Yeah. But the other high profile guy to change locales this weekend and go to a team that I think is interesting coming into the year is T.J. Ward going to Tampa. Because I think that defense,

defense, every level of it was really solid. The safeties were the most problematic spot. You know, you're relying on 34, four-year-old Brent Grimes at Corner, but he had a great year last year. I think Noah Spence is going to be better as an offensive end. They have Chris Baker now. The linebackers with David and Alexander are solid. Safety was their biggest question.

And now they have TJ Ward. And he can just do so much. And I think Mike Smith is creative enough to use him in ways they're going to be fun. So it's just an injection of talent into a team that already had. a chance to be pretty good. I have a question. What's up? T.J. Ward was a really, really good blitzer last year. Not great in coverage. Are we sure Tampa's the team for him? I think they're going to use him enough in the box for it to be okay. Okay. I think they'll put him in the spots so he can play, he can do what he does well. I don't know if it's the perfect team. You know, maybe he goes to

the Rams and does exactly what he could have done last year because Phillips is there. But I still think that he's better than the guys they had. And I already thought this defense had a chance to be pretty good. They were sixth and past defense TVA last year with Chris Conti playing back there. Yeah, no, I totally agree with you. I think the bucks, I mean, I've been hired on the bucks for weeks now. So, I mean, I'm just,

I'm all in on the bucks and we'll get to that later. Yeah, we'll get into the bucks and a couple of their more specific elements that will lead to how good or bad they'll end up being. Before we do that, though, let's get into some specific player stuff with question number 31 here. We're going to hit the bigger awards later in the show, but we want to hit some of the second tier

ones now. So we've talked about the odds for a few of these and the betting show that we did, but this is more who we think is going to win no matter what the odds are. So let's start with Coach of the Year, which we've discussed this in the past. Yeah. It's kind of easy to trace what kind of guy wins Coach of the Year, even though Belichick would win it every year. I had, I had Del Rio winning last year and I didn't even brag about it because it's just, it was a obvious. That's exactly what I said. I see it coming from a mile away. Yep. And I felt the same way. And I assume that your guy is going to be of a similar mold. The team that did not make the playoffs, it's going to be a lot better.

So you and I have very similar guys, and you could probably, it's probably one A and one B at this point. You flip them easily. I agree. You flip them easily. I almost did. My coach of the year candidate, number one, is Mike Malarkey. So there's a couple of things going on here.

I always say that Mike Malarkey, excuse me, the coach of the year, they're so interchangeable. I confuse the terms, Mike Marrick and Coach of the Year. Yeah, exactly. No, I always say that coach... It's like Batman and Bruce Wade at this point. I always say that coach of the year, as we said, is sort of a narrative award. It's the team, it's the team that was taken

from the depths and now have rising tide. But that's also true of Mike Malarkey. And that's also been true of some of the coaches in the past. It's not just the teams that are improving. It's that they want to reward a coach who it's like, wow, this coach finally put it together. We've seen Mike Malarkey in Buffalo and Jacksonville

and he was terrible and now he's pretty good. So I think that there's a dual narrative happening. And that's why I think that if, if both your guy and my guy put together the playoffs seasons and I think they will, we'll get to that, then I anticipate Malarkey in the nod.

I would say that too. I mean, the only reason I pick Cutter is because Milwaukee was off the table as you hit the Google Doc first this time. But it's, and I, I have a holiday weekend, man, you got to wake up pretty early, buddy. I have hope in, I have

more hope in the Titans being good than the bucks being good, in part because I think the back half of the AFC pit playoff pictures are very bad. Sure. So I would say Malarkey's chances are better slightly, but I still think that Dirk Cutter is an easy choice for an NFC coach. Totally agree. There's no other team that could come from nowhere to the playoffs more easily than Tampa

could this year. And I've many times made the comparison between Tampa and Oakland of last year, just in the sense that they're good. They have talent and we shouldn't be looking at them as a sleeper. Because I think a lot of times, as we do with Oakland last year, we say, well, they've got the young pieces. Well, they don't really have that many huge holes to the point that they If they don't win 10 games this year, that's a disappointment.

And I think they should be judged as such. I'd argue that the bucks have fewer holes this year than Oakland had last year, but they're not as good in certain spots either. So the offensive line is not as good. There's more questions about what Winston's going to be as a quarterback. But I think top to bottom, their roster has fewer weaknesses than Oakland's a year ago. Let me ask you this. To use our friend Michael Lombardi's blue chip thing.

Who has more blue chips right now? Oh, I'd say Oakland. I think their talent is at a higher level. I just don't think it spreads as far across the depth chart. I mean, they've got some good players, though, man. Where in Oakland? Yeah, no, no, in Tampa Bay. No, I agree with you.

But, I mean, yeah, the wide receivers in Oakland, Tampa are better. I mean, Mike Evans and Deshaun Jackson is better than Amari Cooper in Michael Crabtree. We can agree with that, right? And that's just a Deshawn Jackson Crabtree thing. No, I think that's Mike Evans. I think Mike Evans is better than the guys. No, no, I know, but that that is generally close, whereas Michael Crabtree and Deshawn Jackson are now. See, I don't, I disagree.

I think Deshaun Jackson and Crabtree are closer. It's hard because they're such different players. Like, comparing them is like comparing guys at two different positions. But I think the production and not only production, but effect of the guys on that side is closer than what Evans and Creight and Cooper are right now. That's just me. And it's my personal preference. Well, Mike Evans love here on the pot.

I love Mike Evans. Anyway, back to our coach of the year discussion. I think our coach of the year discussion is over. I think there's a reason we stopped talking about Coach of the Year. There's more interesting stuff going on. We short circuted and start talking about Mike Evans and Amari Cooper. So let's get into something a little more interesting. I think that's offensive rookie of the year.

Often, not often, but a few times in the last several years, this hasn't been interesting because there just hasn't been much high level offensive talent that comes in, especially at the skill position spots. This year is not that way. We have so many running backs, which is a change of pace. There are a couple wide receivers. I think there are a lot of names you could throw out here. And I'm going to venture a guess that I know who yours is based on.

on the conversations we've had previously. So Diana Rusini, DSPN reported today that Christian McCaffrey has his own playbook, like a separate playbook just from McCaffrey. I don't know what that means exactly. I think that just means it's just an expanded sub package. I don't care. The fact that they've told her this,

the Carolina Penins have told her this, indicates to me that they've got big plans for Christian McCaffrey. It's going to be McCaffrey. I saw Kai and Fahey, he had a, who showed a bet, I guess, about McCaffrey getting a thousand rushing yards, 800 receiving yards, something like that, and then eight touchdowns.

And it's like, I mean, maybe. What were the odds on that? 25 to 1. I was going to say, that they always have to be big. He took it, though. Wasn't David Johnson the first player in NFL history to get 1,200 and 800? I mean, here comes Christian McCaffrey winning rookie of the year, Robert Mays. I love Christian McAfee.

I'm not saying that's going to happen. That was just one thing I happen to see on Twitter over the weekend. If we're, we've made the levy on bell comparison before. If his ceiling is a smaller levy on bell, then that's the type of production you'd hope to get from him eventually. I just don't know if he's going to get the number of touches. Sure. Within the rhythm of offense. Is Cam Newton going to throw to the running back?

We don't know. We don't know. We don't know. It's not even just that. It's, is Christian McCaffrey going to get 180 carries? I would assume with Jonathan Stewart, their answer is no. But Struer can always get hurt, everything else. My only question with McCaffrey at this point, I believe he's going to be good.

I don't know if the workload is going to be there for him to be a fantasy monster, for him to be a rookie of the year, things like that. The guy I feel more comfortable about from this class doing that is Devon Cook, honestly. I just think that he's going to get a ton of work. Between him and Four Nett, just because I think they're going to get them to carries. The workload is going to be there for the production to follow. I just like Cook. I think that that offensive line is going to be better.

I think they're going to lean on him as a means to protect Bradford in a way they couldn't last year, believe their offense finished 28th or 29th in rushing DVOA. It's not going to happen this year. They're going to lean on him. They're going to let him be the guy that can carry them. And I think he can. I wouldn't be surprised if he ended the year with 1150,

1,500 yards. Yeah. No, I mean, I totally agree with you. I mean, I think your guy and my guy both have incredibly high ceilings. Agreed. And I just think that there's a chance Cook is the centerpiece of that offense in

Minnesota just by a number of touches, where I don't know if McCaffrey is necessarily going to be that far ahead of everybody else. That's my only concern. It has nothing to do with talent, ability, or even how they're going to use them. Yeah, I mean, the thing with McCaffrey, I just don't know what that offense is going to look like. Mike Shula is a much better offensive coordinator than he gets credit for. I think that he is, we talk so much about, oh, can they implement the spread stuff? Can they implement, you know, this scheme from college, whatever.

That's a new wave. Mike Shula's been doing that for six seasons now. And so McCaffrey, Ron Rivera, told me that one thing Stanford did really well was blend NFL schemes with spread schemes. And I think you're going to see a very natural progression from McCaffray the season goes along, but it just comes down to A, is Cam Newton healthy,

B, is Cam Newton ready to change the offense to the point that he's going to, those short passes that maybe he doesn't, like, he's got Greg Olson. You know, I mean, if you want to throw the middle of the field, why aren't you throwing the Greg Olson? And so I just... They have to use Olson a lot outside, though.

I mean, it's not always that way. Olson's in the flat a lot. I mean, he's just not a seam, player. So I think that's why he doesn't get a ton of work there. They can use both of those guys in interesting ways. I assume that he's going to get the work as a receiver. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, Olson, you mean. No, McCaffrey. Oh, McCaffrey. I think he's going to get it, even if they happened before. McCaffrey will play in the slot plenty. He will split out and play in the slot. Yes. So if he's on the field for, I don't know how much percentage of their plays, but if they

use him in the slot when Stewart's in there and you can double the chances for his touches, I could easily see this. But yeah, I mean, look at the work that McAfrey did from the shotgun last year as a runner. And that's what Carolina does. Yep. 78% of their plays from the shotgun or pistol last year is the fourth highest rate in the league according to football outsiders. That's what they do. And he's just going to walk right in and be really effective in coming there. Absolutely. All right. Who's your defensive guy? Is there any other option besides the number one pick in the draft? I mean, I guess, I guess it's Miles Garrett. I literally put it on the script here. I guess Miles Garrett. I mean, why wouldn't it be

him. Yeah, no, I mean, there's no, there's really no other option. He looks great in training camp. He is as good an athlete as we've seen since JJ Watt. I just, it's going to be an incredible season. He's also, I mean, I assume the Browns are going to let him do whatever he wants just because it'll be probably a bit of a lost season and it'll be, it'll be great. The only reason I don't think he will win it is if the Browns are so bad offensively that the other team only throws like 12 times a game. So he just can't get any sacks. Other than that, I think he's probably going to get his chances. I think that Brown's office is going to be good enough

that that's not going to happen. I mean, the other thing is that any of the other, there's no real good team. There's not a McAfree situation on defense. What I mean by that is a player who's going to make such an impact that the team is going to compete right away. Like, I think the Panthers are going to be the playoff hunt. That's why I think that McCaffer, and same with Alvin Cook, by the way.

But that's why I think McAfrey's going to get the edge on a rookie of the year. With defensive rookie of the year, you have Garrett, you have Solomon Thomas. I mean, Jamal Adams. I mean, it's not like a blue chip defensive guy with the exception of maybe Hassan Reddick, maybe. The thing about those guys is

with Reddick with who else am I thinking about? Derek Barnett. Guys that are going to good teams, they're not necessarily going to get the playing time right away to have that impact. The other guy that I would throw, Charles Harris may be the same way

and he's going to be behind guys. To Gerriss McKinney is the other guy I would throw out there. Just because he's going to get those snaps opposite Beasley. Yep. So if he gets 10 sacks because there isn't a ton of attention being thrown his way, he could probably be in the mix as well. I thought about him.

I just think that Miles Garrett is significantly better than he is. Of course. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And also, I mean, T.J. Watts is going to be on the field for Pittsburgh. And they have a lot of good players. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he was right there. Kevin Culver was telling me how good T.J. Watts hand placement is. It's elite hand placement that no one thinks about that when I think about athleticism

and guys coming into the league. His brother may be the same way. Maybe. Who's his brother? I never heard of him. Derek, he's the fullback for the Chargers. All right, let's get to another watt, actually. Let's get to the actual what we're talking about. Comeback player of the year for me, I'm just going with a lot.

You have to pick them. I mean, it's, I am contractually obligated. I also just think that we've talked about this. I think he's going to come back and he's going to play well. That's it. I think he's got a back injury and it's going to take him a little longer. I totally understand that. I am picking him.

He's been the best player in the league, arguably outside of quarterbacks for the last five years. I think that if he comes back and plays well, this is going to be an easy one. Seahawks defense last year. Weeks 1 through 13 passes aimed down the field

longer than 10 yards. 69 rating. Six touchdowns and interceptions. After the Earl Thomas injury, the passer rating on those throws went from 69 to 109.3 with a perfect. for a touchdown to zero interception ratio by the quarterbacks.

I know I've talked about this four or five times, but the Seattle Seahawks forgot to play football when Earl Thomas left. This is true. And I think his presence back there, and it's not just, you know, the quote I always think of with Earl Thomas was Pete Carroll talking about Bill Russell, how it's not just the fact that he can make those plays, it's the fact that the offense knows he can make those plays.

And so it changes your entire game plan. So Earl Thomas is back. He's going to be healthy. You have Sheldon Richardson. Earl Thomas is going to eat, man. He's going to eat. Yeah. I mean, that makes the total sense.

I mean, there's no reason to think that's not going to happen. I just don't know if his individual production will be there to the point where he's going to do it. I don't know if they, I'm not so sure they don't give it to him. I just went to full Troy Aikman mode there. Robert, I'm not so sure they don't give it to him if it's Seahawks. Yeah, it's Seahawks. just markedly improve and go 13 and 3. So no quarterback in the league last year had a pass rating less than 69.

69.6 was the lowest, Ryan Fitzpatrick. Tom Brady was the closest to 109.6 at 112. Earl Thomas made everyone in the league Ryan Fitzpatrick. Yeah, and then without him, everyone in the league was Tom Brady. It's great. That's all you need to know. That's all you need to know. I really like that.

I was just an on a whim look up by me. It worked out really well. Congratulations. Thanks, buddy. It's a big moment for me. Big day. Coming up, we're going to make our selections for the MVP award. And we'll also pick all 12 playoff teams, which I assume is going to go horribly for me, as it usually does. We'll also pick who is going to win Super Bowl 52. But first, we're going to take a quick break. 20 years is a long time. And for over 20 years, DirecTV has been the exclusive home to NFL Sunday ticket, which is the only way to get every game live every Sunday. Now there's more good news NFL fans, DirecTV has expanded to service. If you live in an apartment like me or an enrolled college student, now you can get NFL Sunday ticket without a satellite. To see if you are eligible, go online to NFL Sunday Ticket.tv and stream every NFL Sunday ticket game this season to follow your favorite team no matter where you live. Use promo code ringer at checkout to save 15%.

Again, that's Sundayticket.com.com. promo code ringer. We're also brought to you by Miller Miller Light. Miller Light is brewed to not only taste great, but also to be less filling. It's brewed with only 96 calories, so you can enjoy it from one game through the next. It's been the original light beer since it first showed up in the stands back in 1975. All right, Kevin, here we go. This is one of the big ones. This one's often tougher than it seems to come up with who's going to actually win this. Well, it's usually impossible. Yeah, I mean, that's the thing. It's almost impossible every single year. Who did you pick last year?

Probably Russell Wilson. only because I was so into the idea that Russell Wilson was going to... I think I also picked Russell Wilson last year. I think... I ranked Russell Wilson the top quarterback in the NFL last summer, and so it only makes sense then that two months later I would have picked him to be the MVP. But no, I mean, I thought he was going to just join the ranks of the elite to the elite, which he's again on the cusp of, but I don't think he's quite there yet.

I also picked Russell Wilson last year, so that's all you need to know. And this was coming off of the monster second half of 24th. 15 that he had, right? So it makes sense that he'd be the guy that a lot of people would fall on. Speaking of monster second half. There we go. Transition. Good job, bud. Yeah, I was hoping that was on purpose for you. My pick is going to be Aaron

Rogers. There's a couple things. Number one, the safest bet is always chalk on MVP because they want to give it to Tom Brady. They want to give to Aaron Rogers. I don't, I mean, I'm not comfortable taking, and again,

I'm not going to short Tom Brady because as we've said many times, that's a really bad way to get dunked on by social media and life. I think Tom Brady is going to make the Super Bowl as we're going to talk about a little later. But at some point, is production will decline. And I'm just going to start betting that it's going to happen a little bit this year at age 40. I mean, just a little bit to the point that Aaron Rodgers will surpass him in the production standpoint. I think the Packers are pretty much a surefire 12-win team, 11-win team. And if he puts the numbers he put up in the second half of last year, I think Aaron Rogers is

pretty much the runaway MVP. But then, of course, like Matthew Stafford's going to throw 50 touchdowns or something. Brady and Rogers is interesting because you would assume that people are tired of giving it to Brady. It's like, oh, Tom Brady's won the MVP.

How many times? Why would we give it to him again? You went the last time Tom Brady won the MVP is? 2011? 2010. It's been seven years since Brady won the MVP. So if the Patriots go 15 and 1,

it just seems like the type of year that he would get it. He's not my pick because I do think there's Brady Fatigue, fatigue even beyond that award. But I think when people start digging into it, there's going to be a, we give it to him all the time. He also has a lot of talent around him.

That's fair. And I think a lot of time, oh, they went out and got Brandon Cooks, whatever. I think a lot of times we underrate the talent around Aaron Rogers, or we have the narrative, and this is true in most cases, that Aaron Rogers creates receivers. Because there have been, and obviously Tom Brady has that, but they went out and they got, you know, obviously Edelman's out for the year, but I think to go out and to get

Brandon Cooks and to have that sort of, people are calling it almost a warriors-esque super team, which is not true, but that's the media narrative. That's not correct. No, of course it's not correct. Look at how many comparisons there were to the Warriors and the Patriots over the summer. It was ridiculous, but that's the media narrative. It's not about what we believe or what the actual talent is, it's about the media

narrative. This is, like, Coach the Year, is a narrative award, Robert. I agree. And if you want to give it to the most valuable player, it's probably Rogers every year, considering what he is and what the guys around him are. I mean, he is the best quarterback, which is the most valuable player. I mean, Tom Brady is the most productive and the most accomplished quarterback of all time. Aaron Rogers is the best quarterback in football.

There's a difference to those two things. So I can understand that. The other guy I throw out there beyond these two guys that I think has a chance to win it legitimately is Rathlisberger. Just because I think that Steelers offense could easily put up 30 something a game. He could throw over 4,500 yards and 40 touchdowns, whatever, and they could be right in that conversation among the best teams in the league. And in that case,

I just think the production from Bell and Brown and Bryant would be split so much that the quarterback would end up getting it. Yeah, I mean, you do, you get into this with the Heisman sometimes where actually they just give, they split the votes to the point that nobody wins the award. Yeah, I mean, that could be possible.

But I also just think that the ceiling for the Steelers is so high. I agree. That he's also in this conversation. I just don't know if, I mean, Derek Carr is another one of those guys that has good odds. I would rather pick Rathusberger. Rathsperger is 9 to 1 right now, as I sit here and stare at the odds.

I just think that's a fun option when you consider his chances compared to Rogers and Brady. I don't know if they're twice as bad as Tom Brady's. I have a question. I love Derek Clark. When we see him play a regular season game, he broke his leg last year. Are you worried about that?

I'm not worried about that. I'm not super excited about it. That's fair. I just think the broken legs, I'd rather have that than a knee I've been guys come along much quicker than that. I would just like to see him play one game. Isn't he playing the Titans this weekend?

That's going to be exciting. I'm going to look at that before I'm throwing down a with Derek Carr's third favorite to win the MVP. I don't know about that. He also threw 28 touchdown passes last year. You know who might win the MVP Robert? Russell Wilson. I mean, he could. I wouldn't pick him based on the guys playing in front of him.

I think his defense is going to go up four points a game, but I don't know if he's going to be the MVP. Wow. And the odds open, Andrew Luck was tied with Drew Brie's Is he worse now? I assume he's a little bit lower on the list now. Scott Tolzeen is ahead of him. Yeah, I just

MVP is such a hard award to pick. Again, chalk is the best way to go at this time of year. Yeah, I agree. I think the narrative point is an interesting one. I mean, there's going to be competing ones with Brady and Rogers. But if Brady throws for 4,800 yards and 45 touchdowns, who cares?

It doesn't matter what he has around him. They're going to give it to him. Yeah, no. I know. Look, it's, again, it's, it's, it's, it's almost futile to, futile to, um, to pick. Yeah, but it's fun. That's why I like it. Is it? I don't remember having a great time picking the Russell Wilson pick last year. You didn't enjoy picking it even though you were eventually wrong. In the moment, you weren't like, yeah, I got it. I, I don't even remember doing it. So, I mean, I don't have that great. I don't have that great of memories of it. All right, let's get to our final question. But first, we're going to help you guys make some money.

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So, you know, we have a lot of answers here. Kevin, who are your 12 playoff teams? How do you want to split this up? Do you want to go NFC first? Yeah, NFC first. All right, let's do it. The New York Giants, the Green Bay Packers. Okay.

Do you think the Giants win the division? I do. Okay. Wow. The New York Giants, the Green Bay Packers, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Seattle Seahawks. Two wildcard teams will be the Carolina Panthers.

and the Dallas Cowboys. I'm not happy with that Cowboys pick, but I'm just... So the Bucks are out. No, I picked the Bucks win. You pick the buck to win. So Atlanta's out. Atlanta's out.

Yeah, that's great. Okay, Atlanta's out. All right. Okay. God, I also... I'm not happy with that, I'm not happy with the Cowboys off so bad. I'm not happy with the Cowboys pick,

but the downside of leaving out the Cowboys and I'm going 14 and 2 is significant. As I was building my list, I had the same thought. I was like, God, I don't want to put the Cowboys in there. But I also, I'm doing my power ranking. but you can read on the ringer.com all week

and the Cowboys are definitely within range of winning of going to the playoffs. I mean, they're a playoff team based on how I rank them. Michael and Barty are way down on the Dallas Cowboys. I really wanted to put them lower, but I agree. There's just too much downside to putting him like 15th. Well, they just have so much talent that you just don't know what they're going to do. They have so much talent on offense, man.

I don't know how much talent they have on defense. I know you do, but I, they need to prove it to me first. The defensive line still is, I don't know. what's going on there. But again, we went through this all year last year. Everybody is really flawed in the NFL. There is no perfect team. That's not the 80s.

But I just don't understand why the Cowboys would be any better than they were a year ago, which is why they're not winning a division to me. And I think you're in the same boat. I still think they'll be solid, but they're not the team they were a season ago. I truly believe that. Yeah. I know, no. I mean, last year was, you know, I think David Helm from the Cowboys website,

someone asked him, what was a better year? the DES caught a year or last year. And he said, you know, the DES caught a year, which was 2014, was just a run-of-the-mill good team, right? Last year was just like a miracle. That was a miracle. And so that's sort of how I think about last year's Cowboys team. And if they revert to 11 and 5 or whatever,

I don't think anyone can blame them. No, I think that's fine. And we said when we talked about a lot in a couple shows ago that they were going to be worse, that's kind of what I'm thinking is that they'll be in the 10 and 6 range and probably be in the playoff hunt. I just don't think they're going to be this monolith that they were a year ago.

I mean, even when Zee comes back, I don't know if he does come back, when he does. I mean, that's all a question. Yeah, hey, that's the other thing. I don't know what the hell. Like, we're picking this at the beginning of a week that, I mean, is he going to play Sunday? We're not going to know until, you know, middle of this week, basically. If he plays 16 games, I don't think they're the team they were a year ago. It's not based on him.

No, I know. But I'm just saying picking the second NFC wildcard team is really hard without knowing Zieg status. You may not know for even a couple days. So I'm putting Dallas in the, There is one of mine, but the second one was difficult. So let's go division winners first. I pick Seattle, no-brainer.

Green Bay is my, then the north, Atlanta in the south. I'm picking Philly to win the NSC East. I'm not picking the Giants to make the playoffs. Actually, it was very down on them in the rankings that I did as I kind of dug into it. We can discuss that a second if you want to. And then I picked the Cowboys. I really, I guess I'll pick Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay, Carolina, and Minnesota are all right there to me.

And Dallas is in there too. you could slide any of them into that spot and I could totally understand it. I'm going to pick the bucks just because it's on brand for me to pick the bucks. So I will throw Tampa Bay in there because I feel like the best version of that offense is just fun to imagine. What do you like about the Giants? Why do you think they're the best team in that division? I think there's very few teams with the good defense in the NFL. I think they have the talent.

I think they can make a run. I think Odell will be healthy at some point. And I like the additions of Evan Ingram. I like Brandon Marshall. I think the line's a disaster. We know that. I think there was a pro football focused at that they came out over the weekend. It was just the preseason grades for the linemen of the Giants.

And they were all like minus 60, which is not good, folks. And I mean, it's a disaster, but there are so many disastrous offensive. The Seahawks have a disastrous offensive line. They're everywhere in the NFL. I just think, you know, Bill Belichick, when he's scouting, has a really interesting thing. I've heard about from other people who are for Belichick. Don't talk about what a team can't or what a player can't do.

Talk about what he can do. And that's a much better way to approach you because otherwise you start nitpicking and then, you know, small things become big things. Talk about what he can do. And so when I think about teams, I approach it in that way. What can they do? What are they good at? If there's a fatal flaw, that will show up, okay?

And we'll know about that. But I just don't think a bad offensive line is as fatal flaw in a league, where almost everyone has one. That's totally understandable, but they have arguably the worst left tackle in the league. That can torpedo you no matter what else you have on your offense. And it's not as if the guys on the right side are any better. Bobby Hart,

or if they, whoever's going to play right guard, or it's Fluker or John Jerry, nobody's excited about that. And I understand their offense can mitigate that, but that's still a really bad group. And my problem with the Giants is that this idea that we can pencil in them being a good defense,

I understand why they went from the 30th in DVOA to second last year. They added a lot of guys in free agency. Landon Collins went from being a below average player to maybe the best of his position in the league. So tracing it makes sense. But from the defenses that went from the bottom 10 and had the biggest improvements since 1986, according to football outsiders,

they went back down 13.6 spots in DVOA rankings the next year. Defensive regression is real. is real. And if the Giants take a step back to 11th, 12th defensively, I don't think the ceiling for that offense is high enough to make them an NFC playoff contender. That's just my thought presses about it all. Okay. I mean, I believe in roster talent and I believe, you know, the old saying, get the, Sean McDermott is the other day and I've heard it a lot. Get the guys on the bus who are talented. And I believe in that bus, right? I believe in the 53 guys there, especially on the defensive side. And I don't think it was much of a flip.

Luke, as you said, Landon Collins is a good player. Olivier Vernon is a, has developed into a player who, not deserving of that contract yet, but certainly a really good pass rusher. Snacks Harrison. I mean, those guys are talented guys. So maybe there'll be a little bit of regression, but I just don't see a lot of teams. They're going to have better defenses. There aren't that many, but this is still, they were second in the league last year.

I mean, they were the second best defense. They were right there with Denver. If they take even a small step back, I think that will be enough to not. them out of here. I guess. I mean, I just don't, I don't see this as a banner year for the NFC East.

I just don't. I think all those teams are good enough. I mean, I think Philly's going to win that division. I think that they have the best chance. I think Philly's defense is going to be better than Giants defense. Okay. I disagree.

There we go. We've talked about this a lot all offseason. What I think that Eagles defense is a chance to be. I think they're going to be really good. Okay. Do you think that Ben McAddoer or Doug Peterson is a better coach? wash. I know.

I know. This is not. Yeah. I mean, neither of them excite me. This is not a good debate. The Jim Schwartz is the best coach on those entire staff.

Which McCown brother do you want or whatever? I'm not super excited about that. I would say Doug Peterson, but it's not by a lot. Carolina is in or out for you. Oh, they're in. Yeah.

That makes sense. I mean, I wouldn't argue with you there. We both think the defense is going to be considerably better than they were last year. Just with those corners getting better by the end of the season. I think they have the talent. up front. That's a unit that I think the floor is just really high. I think they're wild card. I think the Bucks actually make a nice little run this year.

I think so too. And this is, I just wrote the Bucks section this morning for the power rankings. And you guys can read that tomorrow. It's really real about James. I mean, that is what it's about. Only three quarterbacks in the league through interceptable passes at a higher rate last year than Winston. And their names were Brock Osloiler, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Matt Barkley. That's, that can't happen. If he doesn't turn the ball over and that offense even, approaches its ceiling, I think they're a playoff team. But that's not a guarantee. We like to build these linear progressions for especially high drafted players. And there's never a guarantee that it's going to roll that way. I mean, he might just be this guy. Did you see the Brock Osweiler

Press conference in Denver? I did not. That is not something I spent my time doing. It was amazing. It was amazing. The prodigal son returns. Osweiler said a couple things. The number one, he said, this coming back to Denver was a top five, if not top three moment in my life. which I'm not totally sure what great things have happened to Brock Oswald or aside from he got paid a lot of money yeah I know what number one is I don't know what number two is he's married right coming back I don't think he's married coming back to Denver as a back as Trevor Simeon's backup is number three it's not as if you had a lot of heights as Arizona State's quarterback and then and then they asked Vance Joseph about how he looked and

Vance Joseph said great he looked very tall he always looks tall tall. Always. Great, great height. You know, they say defense travels, tall, height travels.

Who's your final four in that I see? I feel like we should sketch that out. Oh, the four best teams in my opinion would be Seattle. I mean, I guess your final two.

I'm sorry. I mean, who's going to be in the NFC championship game? It's part of the final four in the league is what I met. Seattle Green Bay. That's what I'm going to do as well.

I know it's boring, but I think both those teams are just better than everybody else. I think Atlanta still wins that division because I'm confident in the steps they're going to make on defense. I know the offense may take a step back,

but I still think they have what it takes just top to bottom on that 53 to win 11 games, but I still think Seattle and Green Bay are better. Okay, AFC? Patriot Steelers up top. I mean, that's not a surprise. I have the Titans winning the AFC South. I assume you do as well.

I do. My AFC West team is probably different than yours. I have the Chargers. Yeah, I don't. That's, I've said that for a while. I think they're going to win that division. The Raiders are a wild card team for me. And then the last one's tough.

Chiefs or Texans take your pick. Neither of them excite me. I'm going to go with the Texans because I just think the chiefs are on their way out. Yeah, I agree with you. So here's what I've got. First of all, I think the AFC is a terrible, terrible conference. The bottom half is so bad.

Certainly the Patriots and Steelers. The Patriots and Steelers, maybe, I'm definitely two of the three best teams in league, maybe the top two. I put Seattle right there. I think Pittsburgh is still better top the bottom But I understand Yeah, yeah

I'm just saying that those two teams are really, really good And then there's quite a drop off Quite a drop off And there aren't as many teams That I think are going to be legitimately In the hunt as there are on the NFC I mean, we could have listed three or four teams On that six spot in the NFC

It's harder to come up with one you feel better about in the AFC I mean the Eagles might win I would pick the Eagles to make the playoffs I think the Eagles are better than the Chiefs 10 times at a 10 in the AFC Unless they played in the FFC East. Okay, so Patriots, obviously, Steelers, obviously, Titans division winner. I have the Oakland Raiders win the division. I'm not happy about that, but I'm just going to just go with it.

My two wild cards, number one, be the Houston, Texas. And number two, remember I said it's a weird year in the AFC? Number two would be the Denver Broncos. I just don't think they have it. Their offenses can't be good enough for me to them. I put them in my bottom eight in the league. Sure. I think, A, they have a good defense. I think B, obviously they have a good defense. They have one of the three best players in the NFL. The second part of that is that I think

that their offense was a disaster at times last year and they still were on the cusp of the playoffs. If they beat Kansas City around the holidays, then we're looking at a very different scenario. I just, I kind of believe, again, the same

way with the Giants. I sort of believe in roster talent and that these things even out over time. I like them. I mean, by the way, this could be like eight to eight makes the playoffs. Okay, it could be one of those years or like nine, six and one makes the playoffs. Okay. It could be one of those scenarios. And I just see their ability to get nine wins kind of within grasp. I think the defense is going to take too much of a step back in Denver for any improvement

on the offense to get them to where even the chiefs and Texans are. Trevor Simmons to the quarterback, whatever. And I also, you know, talent matters. more than anything else. I agree with you there. Wade Phillips is the best defensive coordinator in the league. He is no longer employed by the Broncos. Joe Woods is now their defensive coordinator.

I mean, there's the amount of turnover within that organization. I feel like we're just saying it's going to keep on rolling there defensively everywhere else. I don't understand why. There's not a ton of reason for me to think that that defense is going to be anywhere close to it was a year ago. Sure.

And even if they're fifth or sixth, the best, that's enough to take them even out of consideration. I don't think the fifth or six. six best. I think maybe they'll be, I think they'll probably be, I don't know, top four, I guess, if they're not fifth or six. I think generally, I just, it cannot

talk myself into any of those AFC teams. I mean, I don't know what the hell is going on with the chiefs. I mean, there's almost no stability there. The chargers, I just don't believe in them at all. I mean, I love Phillip Rivers, and I I just, the health thing worries me, the move thing's going to be weird. I think it's, I kind of think it's a big deal. I kind of think it's a big deal.

No, I know. Peter King had that in July. I kind of think that's a big deal. Like, I know people who commute like 40 minutes a day and they want to sleep all the time. Now you got Rivers and the Rivers Mobile for two hours a day. Watching film. Two hours is, that's optimistic.

One way, one way. Yeah, I was going to say it. 90 minutes at least. California traffic, man. I think that defense is so good. Let me walk you through it. Number one, if the Buffalo Bills tried to win this year, Maybe they're an AFC wildcard team.

They have not, not only not done that, but they're just cutting anyone or trading anybody. I put them in my bottom three. I mean, the Buffalo Bills, there's a scenario in which I'm putting them in the, I'm talking about six months ago. If they started a path towards contention this year, there's a scenario which I put them as a wildcar team. They still have Sammy Wadkins.

They still have Ronald Darby, et cetera, et cetera. So they're out. The Bengals, just not good enough on any side of the ball. I love what they're going to do on offense. that John Ross injury sucks. The line is not good enough. The line is the problem for me there. I just think that their ceiling on defense

isn't high enough to overcome how bad that line is going to be on offense. The Ravens, I mean, the Ravens are just a worse version of the Broncos. I think the Ravens defense has a chance to be better than Denver's defense, but I don't see any possible scenario

in which they have an above average offense. You can't even start building that for me. What if Joe Flacko play 16 games? I don't think that matters. Okay. I don't think there's any way you can build a top 15 offense for the ravens. Okay, we agree the Colts are going to be a disaster zone.

Okay. Jaguars. Did you give any thought? No. No. The quarterback thing, man. Yep. It's all it is for me.

I honestly think that defense is going to be really good. I feel like they're going to be a top 10 unit, but there's no hope at that offense with those guys a quarterback. There just isn't one. The line isn't good enough to hand it all 40 times a game and just say, this is who we are. Where'd you have the Jets? Deadless. Absolutely.

Okay. That's it for the playoff spots. Should we get to the big question? I mean. Oh, Final four. Steve was Patriots, correct? Um, no.

Wow. Okay. I'm going to do something. I just, I'm insanely bored by my picks. You love the Raiders. No, I don't love the Raiders.

Oh, God. I was hoping it was the Raiders. I think, I think that the New England Patriots will make it. I think they will destroy, absolutely destroy, but they will play. The Tennessee Titans.

Here's the reason that I don't think that it's going to be the Titans and the Patriots. It's because I don't even think the Patriots are going to win the FACC. I know. You think it's the Pittsburgh Stewart? Yes, I do. Make a case. Let's get you on the record. In my opinion, they're right there with New England.

Sure. In terms of overall roster talent. I just believe that top to bottom, I think their defense is better than the Patriots defense. So if you look at that and then I don't think the offense is considerably worse, I absolutely think that Pittsburgh has a better chance of fielding a top five offense and a top five defense than New England does. I just don't understand why they're that much worse than the Patriots are. Yeah, I mean, I think it's a little matter of they played last year. Pittsburgh looked overmatched.

It doesn't, the gap doesn't seem to be closing. Obviously, get Martavis Bryant back. That is the biggest thing to me. I know we don't overstate one player. They got Brandon Cooks back in general. It's not about that, though. it's, I think the Brandon Cooks is an upgrade over what the Patriots had. I think Martavis Bryant changes what the Steelers can be on offense.

The way that New England played the Steelers last year was just that they could throw it to Kobe Hamilton and Sammy Coates. We don't give a shit. That was exactly what it was. That's not an option this year with Martavis Bryant if he's the round. Bell gets hurt in the first quarter. I feel like they did outclass them, but there are traceable reasons as to why. Yeah.

I mean, I agree with that. I could see it happening, but on the same, I would not pick it. I mean, that's just, I didn't even think about that. I actually thought about just going wild and just picking the Titans to make the Super Bowl. I mean, that's kind of, for me, it's like, what fun is it to pick the Patriots to win the Super Bowl? I just, I feel like the NFC is the place to do that. Really? Yeah.

You're just going to, who's your Super Bowl? Well, no, no. I mean, so my Super Bowl pick is the Seahawks, but I also think, I also think the Seahawks are going to win the Super Bowl. Yeah, Seattle's my NFC pick as well. I'm doing the rematch of the 2005 Super Bowl. I'm going to do a rematch of the 2014 Super Bowl, but the Seahawks are going to win. I just think that I really believe in what the Steelers defense can eventually be

with all the guys they have over there. Full season of Bud T.J. Watts is there now. The young corners are going to be better than they were a year ago, almost guaranteed. I don't know what they get from Hayden, but I know it's not a huge drop-off from the guys they had. I just think that defense, the potential is there, the offense, we've already seen what it can be. It wouldn't surprise me whatsoever if they won it all.

Yeah, I mean, look, there's like four teams that wouldn't surprise me in the NFC. And there's only, I don't see a scenario in which any AFC team except the Patriots win Super Bowl. Sorry. That's interesting. I think that Steelers are the second best chance. I mean, obviously, it's harder to get out of the AFC because New England is there. But I think the Steelers are the second best team. If they get there, I think right now they're better than any of the teams in the NFC.

Okay. By the way, by the way, it's close. Can I let you a little secret? Joe Hayden is bad. That's fair. But it's not as if they had these stalwart cornerbacks that he's replacing. No, I know, but I'm just saying Joe Hayden is bad. That's fine.

I just think that the talent they ever, Kim Hayward didn't play in the playoffs last year. No, I know. I love Kim Hayward. They have real players on that side of the ball. And Pittsburgh finished 11th in defensive DVOA last season. I know. They should be a top 10 defense.

Their market improvement on offense, on the offensive line and the defensive line, in the second half of the season, they had the best. sack differential in the NFL. Their offensive line is arguably the best in the league outside of Dallas. They're fantastic. It's them in Oakland is probably two and three. And they don't get the credit they deserve because it sort of came together in midseason.

It also came together without the high profile assets. That's why Dallas and Oakland get all the attention because they either spent huge in free agency or they use first round picks. The CEOs haven't done that. They also. In both of those cases, even though, Oakland and Dallas also get credit.

And obviously Dallas had it before the young quarterback, but just keeping a young quarterback upright is something that people love talking about. And they've done that. We love to do with infrastructure, right? And like, Rothesburg, no one gives a shit if Rathersburg is standing up or not. He falls down 30 times a game.

They had the lowest pressure in the league last year. I mean, they have built this offense in a very cool way. And I think the defensive potential is there to absolutely make them a Super Bowl contender, if not the Super Bowl winner. Okay. I think the Seattle Cia. I think that it's extremely dangerous that none of us is picking the Patriots.

Can we get Danny in there? Danny's definitely not picking the Seahawks, so that would throw a wrench into it. There's no way he would pick Seattle. I just wanted to pick the Seahawks, excuse me, the Patriots of someone. It would give us one chance to pick the Patriots. We'll ask Danny later and see what he has to say.

We'll be on the text chain in which I'm on it, and then you just say it's between you and Danny. It was a Missouri-based conversation. That's what I was getting at. I muted it. I muted the conversation once started talking about Missouri. Kevin, that's it. 33 questions.

We've done it. We got here. Both of us are alive. What a run. And all we got left is real football, guys. So there is a game on Thursday. We will be back with a show talking about that game and week one of the season on Friday. We're going to be back every Friday and every Tuesday from here until the end of time,

whenever football actually ends. But until then, we really appreciate you guys listening. As always, we are presented by TREC TV and 2. days to football. We'll see you guys soon. Thanks guys.