The Ringer NFL Show - 33 Preseason Questions—Preseason Revelations, Cuts That Matter, and the Story of the Season (Ep. 133)

Episode Date: September 1, 2017

The Ringer’s Robert Mays and Kevin Clark continue answering 33 Preseason Questions leading up to opening night, including how the Titans have revealed some secret weapons (03:00), why rookie quarterbacks are on the rise in Chicago and Kansas City (09:00), and how another soon-to-be-former Jet could be joining Brandon Marshall on the Giants (12:45). Then, The Ringer’s own Danny Kelly joins the show with a gripe about Russell Wilson (21:15) and a prediction about when the spread-offense bubble could burst (31:00). Finally, Robert and Kevin discuss what will be the story of this NFL season (41:15) and whether we’ve finally arrived in the new golden era of QBs (43:15). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It's the Ringer NFL show brought to you by DirecTV. Robert Mason, Kevin Clark, here with you. And we've got some great news, NFL fans. Direct TV has expanded NFL Sunday ticket this season. Yes. So if you live in an apartment or you're enrolled college student, now you can get NFL Sunday ticket without a satellite. Kevin, that's me.

That's the life that I live. I can't get a satellite. We're millennials. We can't get anything. This is very important to me. I live in an apartment building where I can only get one terrible version of cable. I need my Sunday ticket so I don't have to watch the bears constantly. Yeah, you would be stuck.

with Mike Glennon for like at least 10 games. I would be, I would get the pleasure of watching Mitch Trubisky for at least half the season. I, if there was no direct TV Sunday ticket, would be stuck with the Rams and the Chargers. An Aaron Donaldless Rams team and a Chargers team that will be half hurt by week four. Sammy Watkins just flailing his hands to indicate he's open. I feel so bad for Sammy Watkins. Where do you think Sammy Watkins is feeling right now? How do you think he's feeling?

He doesn't have to live in Buffalo anymore, but he does have to play with Jared Gough. Well, actually, his fortunes are on the upswing because he just found out he doesn't need a satellite dish to watch Sunday ticket. You know what else? He doesn't need a satellite dish for watching the Red Zone channel. Wow. Which is our favorite thing because it's only the good-Som-Walkins will never be on the Red Zone channel again. But the good teams will be. There will be no Jets, no Rams.

You don't have to worry about that. It's all touchdowns all the time. And that's why the Red Zone Channel is important. I don't know where I would be without the Red Zone Channel. You'd be watching a lot of Bears football. Yeah, which is probably what I'm going to do anyway. To see if you're eligible for any of this stuff, go online to NFL Sundayticket. TV and use promo code Ringer at checkout to say 15%.

To the Ringer NFL show, part of the Ringer podcast network. I'm Robert Mays and joining me on the other line. It's Kevin Clark. Kevin, how are you? Bringing more value to this than Joe Hayden will bring to the Pittsburgh Steelers. That's not a high bar, though. I'm not sure how good of a performance you're going to have to put together here. I'm going to mail this one in, baby. As always, we're sponsored by TREC TV in their awesome NFL Sunday ticket package.

Kevin, the regular season is almost here. We are very, very close, especially compared to where we were when we started these 33 questions. We've answered 26 of them. We have seven more. Tuesday's going to be our final show. We're going to ask a bunch of the big questions, you know, the ones that pertain to who's going to win and why as we move forward

into the season. But we're going to come with three more today and including on top of those, a bonus question from Danny Kelly, who's not been here for a while. And he wrote something. thing this week, these 2006 stats that will predict things in 2017. We're going to ask him about that. He's going to ask us some stuff. It's going to be good to have Danny back.

I missed him. I almost messed up the intro of the show because Danny was out of my mind. I was going to welcome him, but he's not coming until later. We can't wait. I know. I especially can't wait. All right, Kevin, here we go. Question 27, our first one of this show.

As the preseason wraps up, I wanted to start off this way. What was the biggest revelation to you? of the preseason. And this comes with a caveat. This is all relative. We don't learn much in the preseason necessarily, but I feel like especially with the younger guys, there's still stuff to be learned. Sure. We can. Yes. We can learn a lot in the preseason. Victor Cruz rose to start him and claimed your roster spot in the preseason. Dak Prescott proved that he was capable of being a starter in the preseason.

And almost, I think people were underestimating Dak last preseason, including myself. I don't think we saw the talent that he showed. I think Wilson was the same way. Wilson was the same way. Because we try to couch it in, well, it's just the preseason. How much can we actually know? Sometimes you can just see it. If you're against the ones and you're really good in preseason, that's an achievement.

And I think that sometimes we throw that out a little too quickly. So I don't necessarily see a scenario where that's happening this year. I don't know if there's going to be a superstar as being crowned this year. In my opinion, I mean, there's a couple of little things we learned. Maybe Mitch Trubisky, maybe it's possible he plays. you know, we'll get to that in a second. I'll be getting to that. Oh, yeah.

Yes. I've got the Trubisky with stuff covered all season. Don't worry about that. We'll always hit that. Someone who doesn't care about Mitch Trubisky, it doesn't care about the Bears or your Cubs tickets. You cannot care about the Bears and still care about Mitch Trubisky. I really don't care about your Cubs tickets later this week.

You were just telling me about. That's, I mean, tonight, you really shouldn't care. Okay. For me, the Tennessee Titans and their skill guys, that's very interesting to me. Taywan Taylor, I, I said Bryce McCain, the cornerback. compared him to T.Y. Hilton the other day. Yeah, I saw that.

That's pretty good, man. That's pretty good. You know, he had a 48-yard catch against your Chicago Bears and wait until, you know, he actually gets to play against NFL team. I'm intrigued to see that. You need to take like two steps back as we continue the rest of this podcast.

And so I just, so Corey Davis has been out. And that's a big, you know, when he lose a top 10 guy like that for the preseason, that's interesting to me. But they're finding guys without him. So now Corey Davis comes back. I'm not as high on Davis as other people are.

But in general, I mean, if you have a guy third round pick and Taylor, then you have Corey Davis, then you have Eric Decker, then you have Richard Matthews. I mean, man, let me tell you something. That's as good a skill position group as you have, maybe this side of three or four teams. We've talked about this a lot, just the idea of when teams throw a ton of resources at one spot

in a given off season. And I tend to like it, if only because it gives you so many rolls of the dice, I'm not saying Corey Davis is going to be bad, but even if he's not a game breaker from day one because he's been dinged up whenever, you have a guy that gives you an element with Taylor apparently. And then they have that tight end, Johnny Smith that I assume we'll get in the game.

They have so many different ways that they've tried to build up that offense. And that's not even counting Eric Decker, who was kind of an afterthought addition to that team. It reminds me of when, remember the Jags drafted all those receivers in the same year, when they got, uh, Robinson, Marquis Lee, Alan Robinson and, uh, Alan Hurons. Alan Hurons was the same year. He was undrafted, but same draft.

And even when Marquis Lee wasn't that good, Hearns was. And I know that speaks to why you don't trade up for receivers, but I still like that. It's kind of what Carolina did, maybe even this year, but what they did with those two defensive tackles. So when they drafted Latouille and the short in the same year.

Latuil is not as good. I asked John Robinson about this because I thought it was a genius strategy too, telling me it was pretty much just a coincidence. That's fine. Yeah. I mean, that's fine. But coincidences are made by what you need. I know.

I know. And also, you can, if you're sort of a in the box GM, you would say, well, we have too many receivers. He sort of went best player available whenever he could get them, whether that's first round, third round, in free agency with Decker. I mean, so it wasn't, it's not that he was going after this, but he didn't talk himself out of it, which I think is admirable. Well, I think Romero, Lombardi and I were talking about this in relation to Gettleman and

why he does it or he did it when he was in Carolina. Just the way they would structure the board based on scouting tendencies they've learned under Parcells, that it tends to group like that. So I don't know if Robinson's necessarily in that same boat, but it does seem to happen, even if you're drafting best player available, it sometimes they cluster because you need guys at those spots. Yep, exactly. And, you know, it's interesting to me, Corey Davis did not have combined data.

He was hurt for that entire process. And so he just had data data like 2,000 catches or however many. Yeah, but I mean, you know, NFL bust alerted with guys who produced in college. Hey, trust me. I understand that. I'm just saying. I mean, that's why he was drafted. No, no, no, no, I get that.

And so I asked John Robinson about that as well. And he basically said it was an interesting thing for him because he just had to go off the tape, which I think we don't even think about anymore because so much of this, you know, in a post-2012 Seahawks world, so much of this is the spark stuff I talk about all the time. He just had to go off the tape. And all he saw was, and I know this is cliche and it's very, you know, NFL analysis-y. But he was just a football player. You know, he just got to see Corey Davis own guys for, you know,

any college games in his last two years. And so it's going to be interesting to see how that translates. I think that he's going to be maybe a physical freak that we don't know about because we didn't see him at the combine. It's kind of interesting, right? Like when you're willing to make that bold proclamation and those bold decisions, it's kind of like with Anquan Bolden, right? He just retired.

He was such a unique entity. Anquan Bolden succeeded in spite of who he was physically. And by saying, well, Anquan Bolden can run a 4-7 and be a great receiver. You're going to, that leads to mistakes. And it's almost the same thing about Jordan Howard last year, right? He didn't run. He was dinged up coming into the draft. We don't know what his 40 time is in a controlled setting.

But you watch him play and it's like, that dude just knows how to run. And then the opposite is true with Dalvin Cook. He has terrible combine numbers. And then you look at him play. It's like, that dude just knows how to run. And we'll see how it happens with Cook.

But we already have seen examples of there are times where you just go off your gut and say, that dude is just a player and it works. Who's your revelation? I'm going to go with Trubisky in Mahomes. I mean, again, in the same mold. that we can't necessarily, the preseason can't be a deal. The preseason can be a deal breaker in some cases.

A guy can be so terrible. Yeah, I once heard Brian Billick say this and I agree with it. You don't know who's great in preseason, but you can figure out who's bad. Exactly. So if you're those two quarterbacks and if you're the Bears and the Chiefs, you just want them to clear a certain bar.

You know, are they guys that can just step in and actually play? And I feel like with both of them, the answer is yes. I think Chubisky's look better just in terms of playing quarterback. Than the homes? Yeah. I mean, Mahomes is incredibly talented.

We see it all the time. I mean, there are throws that he makes on the move, just off when he's not, his feet aren't set, he's off balance. I mean, the guy just has so much talent. But just the stuff that Trubisky did, I mean, there were a couple throws he made in that Tennessee game. The touchdown to Gentry over the down the left sideline was a beautiful throw. There were a couple others, though, where he's just going one to two to three progression

wise. He's accurate. I just love how comfortable he is. And this was even with the ones. It's exciting. And I don't know how much time he's going to. to get. There's a chance they bring him along slowly. I wrote about kind of that dynamic for the ringer this week. You know, when you're the someday quarterback and you have to sit behind the guy who

clearly is just keeping it warm for you, the awkwardness that can come of it and why guys get thrust in before they should. So we'll see. I don't know how long it's going to be before he plays, but I think if you're the Bears and the Chiefs, you made these very big moves, you know, these overtures to get these guys. And at this point, I think you have to be okay with it. I'd say you're the NFLPA rookie thing I was at where everybody was dressed up. I think Josh Dobbs was wearing a tuxedo. Everybody at least had a nice suit on and Trubisky wore like a jump set. Excuse me,

Chubesky wore like sweats. Yeah, that's not surprising. It was amazing. I can't figure out if it was the most boss move of all time or just not a good move. So what I've heard about him is that he's kind of Mario-ish. We've talked about this with Mario, it's very genuine.

Like he just is very single-minded about the football stuff. Sure. And based on everything I've heard. something about that in the ringer.com in a couple of weeks. There we go. So I feel like, who can't say for sure. Everything I've heard about Trubisky is that he's kind of in that same vein. You know, he's just the guy that it's no nonsense. It's a lot of football. He doesn't really care about much else. And that's fine with me. I mean, if the kid can play, which he clearly can, you know, we're doing just fine. Yep. I love, I love Mahomes. I had a good conversation with

Matt Nagy, the offensive coordinator in Kansas City a couple weeks ago. I think he's, I don't know. it is so dependent on what happens the first couple weeks and they started with the Patriots and I gotta tell you that's probably a loss for Alex Smith and so if they start off slow

how quickly do they go with Mahomes do they try to trade Alex Smith they're obviously not huge listeners to the podcast or else they would have traded Alex Smith Jacksonville I guarantee you they will not trade Alex Smith I know they should have it doesn't matter there's no way by the end of the season

they love Alex Smith he's going to be there no matter if he's playing or not he's going to be there John Dorsey would have done it It is so disappointing that they like Alex Smith. They should hate Alex Smith. No, I'm just saying they're not going to win the Super Bowl with them. So it's time to move on.

They could have, what they had to do, we're not going to get into the Chiefs off season again. I ran into this a couple weeks ago. But, you know, they could have surrounded him with incredible talent and made one run for it. But instead they went halfway. They still have Alex Smith. Just move on. Bring the Holmes in. All right.

They're not going to move on. We are. Today's show is brought to you by Ringer University, part of the Ringer Podcast Network, whether you're a Bruin, a Buckeye, or a Blue Double. If you like college football, Blue Devil, why is Blue Devil in here? I got to talk to Ben Glickson about this. Duke doesn't even play football.

But if you do like college football, join the ringers Ben Glickman, Roger Sherman, and Chris Vernon, as they serve up insights, picks, and predictions week to week. So subscribe and listen to Ringer University, available wherever you get your podcasts. All right, bud, let's get to our second question. So the deadline for all teams to lock their 53-man rosters is Saturday. It's a little wrinkle we haven't seen before.

usually there's a middle cut down. Now it's just the perch happens all at once. So there are going to be a lot of cuts made in a very short amount of time. And there probably are some being made right now. So the question about that, you know, big names are going to be floated around, everything else. We just saw what happened when Joe Hayden. But which cut or cuts do you think will actually make a difference that are going to happen this week?

So the way you have to gauge cuts now. And I thought it was interesting what's happening now with the 90. So essentially if you don't know, there is no 75 man cut anymore. There's a 90-man roster and then it gets cut down to 53. That impacts the last preseason game because a lot more third string, fourth-string guys get to play, try to make the team. But it also impacts last week of the season. Teams are trying to line up guys because they can't pick them up off to the 75-man cut anymore.

They're trying to line up guys so they're trading for them. That's why we're seeing so many sixth and seventh and fifth round picks changing hands. It's because they say, okay, we need a cornerback. We're not going to wait for this mad scramble or this 1,200 guys in the street. We're just going to ship a sixth round pick and get some guy. So the way you have to view this is if someone's on the trade block, they're probably about to get cut. That's going on right now in Denver with T.J. Ward, if he doesn't restructure his contract, that was what was happening the other day with Joe Hayden. Oh, they're going to trade him.

And obviously, he got cut and now he's in the Steelers. So for me, I look at what the Seahawks have going on right now. Ian Rappaport, he reports that Jeremy Lane, Alex Collins, and Jermaine Curse are all on the trade. block, which I find interesting because I don't know how, I mean, if Victor Cruz does make the team, that's pretty much it for Victor Cruz, right? I mean, I don't see him helping a team in 2017 if he can't make the Bears. And even if he, I mean, the thing about that is, you know, when Meredith got hurt, you'd assume, well, now Victor Cruz can make the team. They do different things. And I feel like putting Victor Cruz on the outside will help nobody. So even with Meredith going down, I could

still see him not making the team. So Jermaine Curse, if he's not going to get outright released, is at least available. And so him and Jeremy Lane, there's a two NFTA. And so, the two NFL players, in my opinion, who can contribute. Alex Collins, there's a glut of running backs. I don't know how good he is, but he's at least athletic and he has some value. But I think that I would watch the Seahawks roster and what

happens the next couple of days because I think they've got when you have a talented team and you have, you know, stacks at positions, you're going to release some talent. So if I were to bet any team producing talent that helps another team in 2017, it would be Seattle Seahawks. Seattle just has a lot of redundancies

He's a receiver. They have guys that do the same stuff. And Paul Richardson is pretty much just a better version of Germain Curse, I believe is cheaper. So there's no reason to keep Curse if you think that he's going to be a duplicate of skills you already have at a more expensive rate. Case in Williams, by the way. Yeah, I mean, that's too.

I mean, if you think that Case of Williams is 86% of Germain Curse and, you know, one tenth the price, then you just like Case of Williams. I didn't understand this case and Williams thing until I found out he won his high school high jump. That's all you care about. Well, that's all John Snyder cares about. What's Germaine Curse's deal actually look like? He got a second contract, right?

He's making, yeah, three years fit 13 and 0.5 million. That's why. I mean, you can get a guy off the street that does the same thing he does. He does it for 800K. You don't mind losing Jermaine Curse. So I had a couple guys that are kind of on opposite ends of the spectrum. Stefan Anthony could get cut in New Orleans. And they signed a bunch of linebackers this year.

They threw a ton of mid-tier free agent money at the position. Anthony was a first round pick a couple years ago. He was actually that guy in the story about Scott McLuhan, the McLuhan really liked and thought it would go a little later in the draft. What's going on on Twitter? He loves Hackenberg. Whatever, man. I'm down with Scott McClewink on Twitter.

But like, like maybe delete your account. You're only hurting yourself at this point. So Anthony is an interesting case. I just think that we've seen so many guys get stunted developmentally in New Orleans. He clearly has some talent. I mean, he was a first round pick for a reason. And I just think he's the type of guy. Yeah, it's not that long ago.

So it's one of those guys that if he gets into the right situation, if he can get coached up a little bit, a team that hasn't seen him fail. And when you do that in one place, I think sometimes it's harder to bounce back than it would be elsewhere. He's a guy, I'll be curious to see what happens to him over the next 12 months. The other guy is Matt Forte. And they've been trying to trade him desperately because why do you need a 31-year-old running back when you're going to win two games, I think is a reasonable way to think about it. So if he lands somewhere.

Why do you need like 49 and the 53 players on the Jets? I'm writing my power rankings of all 32 teams before the year. And I started with the Jets clearly. And it was fun to write. I'm not going to lie. It's a pretty enjoyable 500 words to crank through. The Jets are not going to be very good. I don't know if you knew this.

That's true. That checks out. So where Forte lands will be of interest to me. You know, I don't know exactly the right team. where would you like if you were to pick where would you go it's a really good question i mean i feel like the jets are the answer you know they don't have any running back talent there aren't that many teams that are desperate for guys at that position or that haven't spent a lot of resources there so man i don't know that's a good question it would be for you he almost went to the patriots two years ago

honestly i don't know if they have the money to do this but the team that i would be interested in just based on what they need from their running backs he can do both of what they asked specific guys to do is the Giants. Ooh. Kind of like that. Works for me. If he goes around like a cheap deal and why, who's on the Giants that you're like, oh no, we got to get Paul Perkins's touches.

You know, this doesn't make sense to me. If you think that that offense can be good, if you think you're a real team, you could always use another guy that can create something from nothing. I think that that's exactly what Matt Forte is. I mean, I know they have Shane Varene, who's a good pass catcher, but it's not as if Paul Perkins is this huge investment that you have to. the let flourish. It was a fifth round pick last year. Google doesn't lie as far as like the top search results and stuff.

I googled Paul Perkins very quickly. And the first headline is Paul Perkins takes Ben McAdoos' criticism in stride. Yeah. So if you, I think you can somehow survive cutting Sean drone and letting Matt Forte get a little bit of run there. He can help a team. That's for sure.

Yeah, I think he absolutely could. I love Matt Forte probably more than is reasonable, but I still think he's got a little bit in the tank. I just want to loop around Joe Hayden, anything left in the tank. I think if they use him in the right way, he can be a useful play. He's actually the perfect player for the Steelers. They can play a lot of zone. He's a guy that he knows the right spot to be in.

For Joe Hayden, it's been injuries. I mean, he's just not the same player physically as used to be. And when you're playing the scheme they were just having to chase guys around all by yourself, he's not there anymore. Pro football focus had 11 players in the entire NFL worse than him at yards per route coverage, which, by the way, not very good. I mean, the money they gave him, they clearly expect him to play. It was a one year.

I saw Breard has had this effectively with the contract structure. It's a one year, $7 million deal. But that's a lot of money. Yeah, no, of course. It just got cut. But when you're giving that money out in late August, you sort of know your salary cap picture. It's a little different than giving that out in, say, March. Sure, but he's not an afterthought.

I mean, you get to give somebody that he's going to get on the field. Can't cut him. Can't cut him. Yeah, there you go. All right. Coming up, we're going to be joined by our great friend Danny Kelly who's got a bone to pick about Russell Wilson. That's shocking.

Who would have thought that Danny Kelly would be upset about something people, something people said about Russell Wilson? Plus, we're also going to decide what the story of the year is going to be in the NFL. But first, let's hear from a couple of our awesome sponsors. 20 years is a long time. And for over 20 years, DirecTV has been the exclusive home to NFL Sunday ticket, which is the only way to get every game live every Sunday. Now there's more good news, NFL.

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And now it is time to welcome our good friend and the ringer's own, Danny Kelly. Danny wrote a story on the ringer.com on Thursday about some weird stats from last year that could help explain 2017. We've got a question about that for him. But first, because he is our guest, Danny, we're going to let you ask us a question. Yeah, I'm excited about that. And I was listening to you guys talk a couple times ago, a couple podcasts ago about the C-Hawks. Thank you. Thank you for listening.

Yes, of course, of course. And you guys talked about Russell Wilson a little bit. So I wanted to get your take on this QB rankings, the QB tiers rankings from Mike Sandover at ESPN. Love Mike. He does that every year. It's always really interesting. Yeah, I thought that was a super fascinating article.

You know, kind of gives you an idea of how the league looks at quarterbacks. And it wasn't always, it's not always the same clearly as how a lot of fans look at it. And since you guys know, I'm a Seattle guy, I wanted to get your take on the Russell Wilson ranking at number 10. He was specifically behind guys like Derek Carr,

who was number seven, Matthew Stafford, who was number eight, and then Andrew Luck, who was number six. Well, I just want to get your guys' take on that. What do you think of those rankings, if you think they make sense, things like that? May start out. But before I answer your question, Danny,

I have a question for you. When you read that, how did you react? Like, did you throw something? Did you swear? Like, what was your personal reaction to reading that for the first time? It was a hard eye roll, I think, maybe. Wow, that's pretty restrained, all things considered.

expecting something more harsh. Well, it's kind of, it's gotten to the point where this is kind of what you expect. And I think that the way that the paper is framed, or not the paper, but the article is framed sort of in the way that it sets up, I guess, quote, pocket passers to be, you know, a little bit higher in the tier. Because it's about guys that can succeed independent of situation. Exactly. So, I think there's still a very strong bias against Russell Wilson because of his ability to

get around and move and get outside the pocket and all that, that people think he's not a good pocket passer, but the stats just clearly point to the fact that's not true. So I just wanted to get your guys to take on that. My reaction was just kind of like, well, it kind of makes sense that people would maybe think that, but I think it's mostly reputation based this time. I don't think Russell Wilson,

I think he's developed into a pocket passer, in other words. I totally agree with you. I feel like a couple of those names that I would throw out just out of hand. Derek Card, no thank you. Yeah. I mean, we haven't seen Derek Carr succeed independent of situation. He has the best offensive line in league, the side of Dallas. Whatever Derek Carr's situation is, Russell Wilson has the opposite of that when we consider that position group.

That's point one. What is Matthew Stafford doing in there? Okay, so you're on the same page as me. Those are exactly my reactions to. Those are the two guys that I would just toss out without even thinking about it. Rivers, I understand. I think that River, I am the president of the Philip Rivers fan club. Luck is the, you know, that's the conversation we've had for five years, right?

Totally. The luck Russell Wilson thing. I know Seahawks fans, nothing upsets them more than when people say Andrew Luck is better than Russell Wilson. But I think the argument is there. I can understand why you would throw him in there. But the other two guys, those they don't make sense to me. I mean, I think that Russell Wilson is a better quarterback than each of them. Independent of situation, you could drop him onto any roster.

And I feel like he would be a better option than both of those two guys. That list, by the way, had a very bizarre quote from a former GM in which they said that Carson Wentz was better than Dak Prescott because Wence can more consistently carry a player from the carry a team from the pocket. That's the most ridiculous thing. Jesus. Yeah, I don't. Are we here yet, really? We're like, we're not to a point where being white doesn't make you a better pocket passer. I can't believe we're still doing this.

Well, here we are. Danny, I totally agree with you. I love Russell Wilson last summer when I was ranking the quarterbacks one through 10. Unlike what most people think I did not rank Andy Dalton number one. He was number two. I ranked Russell Wilson number one. Andy Dalton was number five. That turned both those turned out to be sort of incorrect for 2016,

but I was more correct on Wilson. The thing I compared Wilson to, especially with his deep passing in 2015, I compared him to Dave Grohl in the sense that he did something very big. different at the start of his career. And by the end of his career, he was a different guy. I mean, he was, he was just kind of a, not a bit part, but certainly in the Seahawks machine in 2012. And he got better and better and better to the point that I thought, you know, he had the capability last year being the best quarterback in the NFL. I still believe that. On the last episode of this show, I said that at his best, Russell Wilson plays as well as anybody in the

NFL. That's totally true. And so I totally agree with you. He's better than Matt Stafford. he is better than certainly than than Derek Carr I think at this point we can all agree on that and Andrew Luck I mean is Andrew Luck gonna play this year That's not what this is though I mean I think this is just like

Here's the issue I love Andrew Luck I hate to qualify this every time But I love Andrew Luck But at some point Andrew Luck has had Rib problem, shoulder problems Kidney problems I mean at some point it stops being

Andrew Luck when he's healthy When is Andrew Luck gonna get healthy man? Well, and that's the thing about this, the ranking that, and I'm not going to get into the Andrew Luck thing, Maze, you're completely right. Like, that's like the biggest thing that people talk about in Seattle. I'm not going to get into that. But I do think it's a fire that's fun to Stoke. I'll be honest. Yeah.

Is that what that you just go down to like the water and then down there and everyone just outside at the bar and just saying, I can't believe this quarterback ranking. They're drinking coffee and just shaking their fist at the sky, screaming Andrew Luck's name. It's so funny because, like, people here. because of that, like, hate Andrew Luck. I know. It's incredible. There's no reason to hate Andrew Luck. Like, I don't know.

So I'm not going to get into that. I will say it did seem like some of these guys in this, you know, in this go-around when they talked to a whole bunch of guys. I think they talked like 65 guys or whatever about this. It seemed like there was some people were giving him credit for being hurt. And then they didn't really give Wilson any credit for playing hurt last year. And the fact that Wilson's not missed a game in his career. I don't even know if he's missed a practice in his career.

So they're downgrading him for, you know, what was it obviously a little bit, you know, he had a down year because he was battling ankle, knee, and peck injuries, I think, at different points in the year. And so I just thought that was kind of funny. But at the same time, I'm not going to get into the Andrew Luck thing. I think it's kind of silly the Seahawk fan hatred of Andrew Luck at this point just because I think, you know, there's a lot of that traditional pocket passing, quote, traditional pocket passing, you know, quote traditional pocket passer versus what what russell wilson is kind of considered as like a

you know sandlock guy when he's really not anymore yeah i mean that's bullshit but andrew luck is also a really good pocket passer they both can be like that is a possibility here my thing is so look at matt ryan eight in 2014 11th and 15 13th and 16 we're just cool with him being fifth now on a list that is supposed to exist outside of circumstance i don't like that That just doesn't make sense to me. I think Matt Ryan is good, but it's like, now, yeah, pencil him in fifth. He was so much better. He got so much better at 31.

That doesn't make sense to me. I mean, before last year, weren't a lot of people kind of talking about how like he was, I don't know. I don't know if they were talking about like replacing him necessarily in Atlanta, but like, it definitely changed a lot in a year. You know, so there's tons of recency bias here, I think, too. That's kind of what I'm getting at. Yeah.

That's the NFL. It's true. I mean, like, I don't understand what. So Wilson was, I think, in the top five a couple years ago. What about Russell Wilson's play last year? It was just like, yeah, he's so much worse than we thought. That doesn't stick out to me whatsoever. The guy was dinged up and playing with me in front of him.

Maybe it makes no sense. I mean, are you available to play, by the way? You can probably. Hey, I absolutely. I have. Somebody wants to give me a ring. I'm set. Yeah.

So, I mean, yeah. Mays, if you played 16 games. and you had as many attempts as Russell Wilson, how many passes would you complete? So I'm throwing 35 a game? Yeah. I could probably complete one pass a game. I would say four to five.

I think you would start, you'd start checking in to throws. I'd say maybe one. If you gave me like a week to study some film, I would get in the four to five range. I'm not saying, I'm not going to go that far for myself. I'm not sure I could clear that far.

35 attempts. Okay. Are any of those past the line of scrimmage? Yeah, but they're all checkdowns. So probably not past the line of scrimmage. If you're in there, they're going to have like nine guys on the line of scrimmage, like scaring the crap out of you. That's the thing.

You're going to get hit in the first 30 seconds in the back by some blitzing corner. I'm going to go over for you. I'm pretty tough. I've been hit by two cars in last six months. I was going to say, like, do you want to get hit by another car? Because, yeah, that's going to have it. Danny, only I'm allowed to joke about that. Oh, sorry, too soon.

Too soon. All right, let's flip it around here. Let's get back to what you wrote this week. Again, please go rated at the ringer.com. A very good just way to reset and look forward to this season. When you're doing all this research, talking about the stats that could predict 2017 based on last year, what was the most predictive thing that you found?

Well, I think the thing that really stood out, and it's kind of stood out in the last couple years multiple times, is the fact that the NFL is spreading out so much. Last year, the three-receiver set, our three plus receiver formations and personnel groupings were featured on 66% of all plays. So that was up 6% from 2015 and it's gone up, you know, 15% from, I think, 2010. So, I mean, it's, it's the, you know, the spread thing that everyone talks about.

It's really happening. And what's interesting about that, you know, especially interesting about that is that in that 11 personnel, which is a three receiver, one tight end, one back personnel set. That's become kind of the base offense in the NFL now. That set per football outsiders was 30 out of 32 teams were better in that set than their average. So it's not only happening in terms of it's just being more popular and in everyone's spreading out, but teams are a lot better in those three receiver sets this year or last year. And so to me, I'm, you know, I wanted to ask you Mays too about this,

because I've seen your theory about how as defenses get smaller and everyone starts spreading out, like potentially offenses could start to get bigger and go back to sort of the smash mouth football type thing. But I'm kind of wondering when sort of the apex of the spread system is going to happen because last year it was just super successful for everyone. I think it's coming. You know, when I wrote that earlier this off season, I didn't assume that by this season, the pendulum will swing all the way back. Far from it. I mean, I think we're probably going to see more guys on the field, more receivers. than we ever have.

But I think it's one of those things where, look at the Patriots, they're always three steps ahead of everybody. And it feels like some of the best offenses last year and some of the ones that overcame deficiencies in talent in specific ways used more tight ends. They used a fullback. It just creates so much confusion that if you don't have, if you have certain deficiencies, you can overcome them with that. And then I think that if you have certain levels of creativity, it can take you to a new

peak. So you think about new. England using all those guys. Think about how often Kansas City uses three tight ends and counters and motions, what Atlanta did. I don't think that the numbers are going to bear it out, but I do think that smart, creative, offensive minds are going to look to guys smarter and more successful than them and say, what are they doing? And why am I not doing that more? I'm going to disagree. Interesting. So I've done six training camp tours. And every single time I talked to two or three coaches, coordinators, GMs, team executive, scouts, whatever it is.

And they all say the pendulum is about to swing. Ever since 2011, which started, I think, a stretch of six years in which passing yardage went up every single year and broke a new record every single year. There's never been more passing than there has been at this point in the NFL. Essentially, the short rush was replaced by the short pass because completion percentages rose. because all of these guys had played seven on sevens for years and were able to just complete the four or five-yard pass over and over again. And basically everything became a checkdown in a lot of ways. And so I've been waiting for the pendulum to sort of swing.

And I've written it. I think I wrote it in 2012 and it just never happened. And it's never going to happen, in my opinion, because passing is just too easy. It's a cheat code. It is just, it is insane how proficient these guys are, completing short passes. And I think that a run game is really hard to manufacture.

You need a line. You need, in some cases, a fullback, as we saw with how much San Francisco paid their guy. And so I just think that it's a lot easier to line up, go five wide, and go with a bunch of underneath routes than sort of build a tough game. Because what the Titans are doing is really interesting to me. They're building through a line, but they've also got some of the best wide receivers in the NFL. And so I think they do now. They do now. So that's what I'm saying is it's kind of the culmination of it all and everything coming to a point is having the threat of the run game to effectively set up easy passes.

That's what New England does. It's not about running the ball. It's about breaking tendencies in some ways making your passing game easier to function. Sure. I think that, but I think that it's always going to be easier to also, if you don't want to go through the, the quick fix will always be just going five wide, spreading them out and just throwing a ball over the field. And that's, you know, the trend last year was literally five on five. It was literally was basketball. It was five receivers against five or six defensive backs.

And I think we're going to see more and more of that and less and less of sort of between the hash marks, physicality. I mean, like the look at the giants who did, I think they were in 11 personnel over 90% of their snaps last year. Yeah, and their offense sucked. Yeah. And that's the other thing that's kind of interesting about this is, as you alluded to it, like Atlanta was dead last in using. three plus receivers last year. New England was 28th. So, I mean, you got some really good offenses that still go heavy.

But the question is, like, and I think, I think, Kevin, I think you bring up a good point because, I mean, it is hard to field, you know, both from, you know, just finding the talent in the college game perspective and from a salary cap perspective of building like a really strong offensive line. So maybe it is sort of the salary cap and talent deficiency thing that's kind of played. playing into this as well. I mean, one of the reasons the Titans have been able to assemble a good offensive line is because they hit on two tackles.

Jack Conkron and Taylor Leone. I mean, Seahawks have been trying to do it forever. Lakin Tomlinson got traded this week. He was the 28th pick. I mean, the Lions probably thought they were going through an offensive line. Greg Robinson. I mean,

I think it gets a little bit back to the offensive line crisis that we talk about all the time, which is just that, I mean, even if you try to build to the offensive line, those are not safe picks anymore. Remember of 10, 15 years ago, even seven or eight, years ago. The theory was always, oh, well, you get that tackle, you pencil him in for 10 years.

Man, you may not be penciling him for half a season at this point. That's not what I'm saying, though. I'm not talking about building through your offensive line. I think that in a way, what Atlanta did is a really interesting way to consider it. They picked Jake Matthews sixth overall. He's fine. And they gave Alex Max some money. But outside of that, they bought him of the barrel guys on that line. It's about creating easier jobs for your offensive line through deception, through moment. movement through counters. I think that's what it's about. It's about making the jobs of your players interesting by having this illusion of complexity in your offense when you're really running the same stuff. And I feel like that's what a lot of offensive coaches aren't doing enough of.

It's just on first down, let's line up with a fullback, fake it to the guy who is in the backfield because they assume we're going to run it because most coaches have not come around to what football actually is right now and have an easy completion for eight yards. That's what it's about. It's not about lining up and beating people up. It's about lining up and confusing them. Yeah. I think that's a distinction that you have to make it too. It's not necessarily that they're running

more because I think most teams are still passing more. And they should. It's deception. Yeah. Yeah. There we go. No, I mean, I just, we can go all day about the spread of principles. I mean, I think you can thrive in simple offenses as well as

you can and complicated offenses. I disagree. I think that's not against good. That's where I'm sitting. Okay. I'm going to be really, I'm going to be trying to watch that pretty closely in terms of how teams are using their personnel, whether it's, it's sort of a continued explosion of three receiver sets or if it starts to, if the pendulum starts to go back towards, you know, what Atlanta and New England did last year.

So I think that's very, to me, that's going to be one of the most interesting. I think those, the fact that those are the two teams you mentioned is telling. And think about some of the draft choices that were made. I mean, what is Tampa going to do with O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate? Stuff like that. There's so many teams that. that have, or like Red Ellison and Evan Ingram. There's a reason that the Giants didn't have any tight ends and now they have two.

I feel like that is something that we're going to see something a lot. Evan Ingram's a wide receiver. But he's going to line up next to the tackle. Sometimes. I mean, everything I hear is that he can't even block. Well, that's fine. He doesn't have to block anybody.

As long as he's lining up in certain ways, though. But how is it complicated or how is it deception if we know what Evan Ingram's going to do? I mean, if he ships a defensive enemy, he doesn't have to sit there. I don't want to chip people. We can do this scenario where Russell Wilson, we can, you and I can chip things. It doesn't mean it's going to work.

That's what I'm saying. He doesn't have to be a great blocker. I'm not asking him to blow people off the ball so you can run power to the right side. I'm just saying that it affects the way that teams think, the way they line up with their keys are. I mean, just Jim Schwartz has said this. The way,

the hardest thing to defend in a lot of ways is 12 and 13 personnel in 22 because you don't see it ever. Sure. I think that's the type of stuff that teams are going to start thinking. about is how do we break our own tendencies but still run the stuff we want to run? Ron Rivera talked about the 13 personnel with, by the way, that's one running back, three tight ends

with the 2007 Patriots. And it was really fascinating because you're saying they would go with four receivers or five receivers in some situations and then on the next play they'd go 13 and you just you can't defend that sort of creativity and that sort of diversity. That's what I'm saying is that

you have to have those elements to your offense. The 2007 Patriots also had the most firepower and spread at that point in the history of football. But look at what Atlanta had last year. And they looked awesome when it was Sanoo, Gabriel, and Julio on the field. But then the next play, they're going to bring in Hooper and Toulolo, and you're going to put the Marko in the back field. I think it's just the level of complexity and the layers of your offense are important,

even if you're going to go to those spread principles as the basis of what you do. Sure. I think this is going to kind of separate the really good play callers from sort of the average guys. I feel like that this. I totally agree. It's going to kind of, you know, the cream will rise to the top in terms of you're going to find out who really has a good grasp of play calling. Yeah.

And if you had to list the best five play callers in the league right now, Kyle Shanahan, Andy Reid, and Josh McDaniels would be on your list every single time, correct? Every single time. Yeah. And all three of those guys are the ones that are using this stuff more than anybody else. Absolutely. Danny, thank you for joining us.

Thanks for having me on, guys. Thanks, bud. Okay. last question for today, Robert, number 29 of our overall list of 33 questions. It has to do with the story of the year in the NFL. Last year, I think we can all agree it was the rise of Dak Prescott, the Cowboys, and just their amazing run to 13 and 3, among others. So when we look back at 2017, Robert, what is going to be the story that we talk about?

I feel like we could look at this two different ways. And I know you're going to go with it more from a storyline perspective, which is a smart thing to do. That's what the Cowboys were. for me it's just schematically, what trend story are we going to write in like week six that interests me? And I feel like a lot of teams added the speed element to their offense that can kind of unlock the rest of their weapons. I think you have a couple different guys. You mentioned Taiwan Taylor at the beginning of the show.

And I think that's the type of thing Tennessee will need to let Corey Davis and Eric Decker and those guys eat underneath. I'm thinking of the touchdown that Marquis Good one scored for San Francisco the other day. Just having that as a way to unlock the rest of your offense. And then the last guy is Deshaun Jackson. So I feel like a lot of teams last year added offensive line studs or tried to build that way in order to get their quarterbacks to a certain level. And I think this year we're going to talk about how adding that speed, deep receiver that brings everyone else into play is how you bring your quarterback to the next level.

And I think a couple of the guys that you're going to talk about are the people that I have in mind. So in my opinion, we're looking at a. golden, and I've said this a million times, we're looking at a golden generation of quarterbacks. At some point that has to end. I know that, you know, you're talking about the older guys. I think about the younger guys. I was like, wow, that is a lot of hope. We are not talking about Davis Webb and Jared Goff. Drew Breeze is 38 years old. Tom Brady keeps talking about how he was going to play until he's 50. I mean, at some point, it ends. He's going to be 40 this season when he starts, turn 40 earlier this month in August. So, for me,

Can you see like a newspaper clipping in 2007, though, where Tom Brady looks younger than he does now? It just seems to be in play. It's like Wonder Woman. Like we're just going to find a black and white photo or whatever they're using for color later on. It's going to be like, yeah, he looks the same somehow. I can't wait for that. Just in an Omega Watch ad. And it's just like, wow, he looks great.

Somebody finds out on the ground, it's a little dusty and they wipe it off. And it's a huge revelation in that moment. Yeah, exactly. So we have Brady. We have Breeze. I mean, even Carson Palmer. Aaron Rogers is not that old. But as far as, I think about there are 25 instances in the NFL and history of a player over 33 having a rating over 101.

Okay. 25 instances. 16 of those instances were by quarterbacks who were currently active. That includes Carson Palmer. I thought it was going to be lower than that. Honestly. What, 16? 16 and 25. I thought it was going to be more of them.

I thought it was going to be 23 of them. I'm surprised. It's only 60. Manning. Manning is the, yeah, that's good point. I mean, it would be 20 of 25 if. It's like Wyatt Tittle and Steve Young basically. Joe Montana did it once. Steve Young did like three times. Steve Young ruled. All right. So anyway, Palmer is one of those. Rivers is one of those.

Breeze is one of those. Those guys are starting to graduate out of the NFL. Carlson Palmer is 37. Philip Rivers is around there. Eli Manning is 36, something like that. I think a couple of those guys are going to fall off this year in a noticeable way. I don't know who it's going to be. I'm not dumb enough to predict it because. you know, a lot of graveyards are with the bones,

people who were shorted Tom Brady. You don't want that take out there because if my bones are there. Yeah, man, like we were talking about that the other day. Amongstringer staffers, just the guys who have gone out in public and said, this is the end of Tom Brady and then he wins the freaking Super Bowl in 2014.

And even before that. So I'm not going to do that. Breeze, maybe a candidate, Eli, I mean, it's possible that Eli's already there. We just don't notice it yet because he has Odell Beckham.

He has O'Dell Beckham on a slant for 80 yards. every time he snaps the ball. Anyway, my general point is I think we're going to start to see a little bit of a passing of the torch. We already know that the guys like Carr, Wilson, I mean, maybe if luck ever gets healthy, I'm starting to see those guys. Obviously, Wilson's won a Super Bowl, but I'm thinking about those guys going deeper in the playoffs this year.

Matthew Stafford is now the highest paid quarterback in the NFL. Is this his time to get to a championship game? I don't necessarily believe that, but I think you're going to see that younger generation start to take a leap and maybe take a little bit of the attention. away from that older generation. And that's kind of, my point plays into yours. I think that what the Titans and the Bucks did this year was try to put those guys over the top into that area. One of those guys, Winston Mario is going to have a nice little March to the playoffs this year.

That is my prediction. The type of players they've added are what will lead to that. I think we're going to have a conversation about our weapons and certain types of them, the way that you eventually propel your quarterback to that echelon. Totally agree. All right, bud. That's it. 29 questions.

I just said totally agree. with my own point, by the way. Well, you should totally agree with your own point. If you don't, then I think we're in trouble. If you said you agreed with my point, then I came and agreed with you again. All right, that's 29. We got four more to go. We'll be back Tuesday with our last show of the preseason as we wrap up.

Well, yes, of the preseason because Friday show will be after a game is played. Yes. We will wrap up our questions then. Again, we're going to dig into some season long awards. Who's going to win the Super Bowl? All of that good stuff. The things that really matter. After that, it's football time.

We will be back with real games a week from yesterday. So as always, thank you guys for listening to the ringer NFL show presented by DirecTV. And we'll talk to you soon.