The Ringer NFL Show - AFC Draft Confidence Meter

Episode Date: April 15, 2025

Sheil and Diante return with their patented multi-tiered system to analyze, debate, and speculate on how teams in the AFC and their respective GMs are going to perform in the upcoming NFL draft. GM tiers: Take My Money (4:32) Benefit of the Doubt (12:38) Wild Cards (40:18) Short Term-ism (1:08:38) Lock Them Out of the Draft Room (1:17:06)  The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Hosts: Sheil Kapadia and Diante Lee Producer: Chris Sutton Social: Kiera Givens Production Supervision: Conor Nevins and Arjuna Ramgopal Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

When you hear the word Seattle Supersonics, what comes to mind? Maybe it's Sean Kemp, The Rain Man, or Gary Payton, the glove, or maybe an image of a tall and skinny 19-year-old rookie, Kevin Duran. For fans in Seattle, it's something else. It's tragedy. It's theft. An iconic team with an incredible fan base that packed its bags and shipped off for Oklahoma City. From Spotify and The Ringer, I'm Jordan Ritter-Con.

And in my podcast, Sonic Boom, I talk to players, politicians, owners, and fans about how Seattle lost the Sonics. You can listen to it on the Book of Basketball feed on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. The Ringer NFL show, Shield Capadia here with Deonté Lee, a little two-man pod today. Ruiz will rejoin us later in the week, but hopefully you'll listen to the episode from last week where we did a little confidence scale for every NFC team, GM, decision maker, put them in different tiers. And as promised, we come back this week with the AFC, Deontes. And we got a lot of first-time GMs in the AFC.

So I think we'll look at, you know, there'll be a lot of guys in one certain tier. But then some interesting ones because we have some sort of stable teams in the AFC, you know, the same teams that have been contenders for a while. Does that automatically mean we have faith in their decision-making in the draft? Or is it like, well, you know, they might be good for another reason. So I think it'll be fun to talk through some of those teams. I agree. I think the clusters here are a little bit bigger than it was in the NFC, right? I think we spent a lot of time trying to figure out, well, is this guy more of this tier or this

tier? I think for this one, like you said, because we have a lot of longstanding, long-tenured GMs here, I think we have a long enough track record now where you can be a little bit more definitive. And then on the other side, and I think this is something that's different from the NFC, there have been a lot of turnover over the last two or three seasons in front office. So I think that there's a big portion that I'm sure we'll get to where guys just don't have enough data points for us to really kind of nail down what they are. But the rest of the guys, the guys who have been here, we have plenty of things, plenty of examples to go off of when we talk about what they are as GMs and how much confidence we have with them during the draft. Yeah, this has been a good exercise leading up to the draft. Just taking some time, looking at draft history, what do different teams do with the resources they've had over the years?

Does that predict what they might do this year? That kind of thing. So the tiers for those of you, maybe there's a few of you who didn't listen to the last one. Let me go over the tiers one more time. Top tier. Take my money. I trust you implicitly.

I think we had Howie Roseman and less need in that category for the NFC. So these are the teams you feel really good about. And then this is just for the draft. As a reminder, this isn't all off season. This isn't a GM ranking. This is just going into the draft. Do you think they're going to maximize the resources they have available to them? So that's the top tier.

Then we have benefit of the doubt. Nobody's perfect, but you have our confidence, which means exactly what it sounds like. They might not be all the way in that top tier. Maybe we have some questions, but overall, pretty confident about how they're going to operate. Next tier, wild cards. These are the teams. You need more information. It might be a GM's first draft.

It might be a second draft. You're not sure where to put them so you throw them in the wild card. category. Next year, short-termism. Are you picking to save your job or are you building for the future? I might have put a couple of guys from the AFC in this tier. We'll see if Diante has the same ones and then lock them out of the draft room. You know, change the key card, whatever you need to do. You cannot trust these people to make your draft decisions. And this was also an interesting one where I thought, Do I have anyone in here? Do I want to be nice?

Do I want to be mean? How am I feeling? What's my mood today? You know, that dictates some of these things with where you place these guys. So we're going to go tier by tier, basically. So we're going to start with the top one. Deonti is going to give me a name. If I agree, we'll talk it through.

If I disagree, you know, maybe we try to convince each other, hey, you know, this is where this person belongs and we'll do it that way. So the top tier, Deante, take my money. I trust you implicitly. Give me one team. that you have in this tier? I only have one name here, and it's Eric Acosta from Baltimore.

Me too, me too. All right, we're on the same page. Go ahead. What's your explanation? You know, it's one of those things. You've made the joke. We've all made the joke on the podcast, right? Where you look up around draft day and you get to day two,

and you start looking at, all right, what do teams have as we get into the third round? And it's like, wait, Baltimore got a guy who's projected to be a starter at guard and a starter at safety and a starter at wide receiver or tied in. And then they got this other guy that's got a really high ceiling because they've got comp picks, so they're able to make these multiple dips into the pond in the mid-round. And then you look at what they're able to get in day three.

And this is similar to what we talked about with Philadelphia and the NFC pod, right? When you have a GM that knows that he's safe, his job is safe, a head coach that knows that their job is safe, you get to take a long view at prospects. It means you don't have to pick, oh, we have a whole lot cornerback. We've got to take whatever the quarterback is that's available with the 20-whatever pick, right? Or we've got to trade up because that's a I only were going to get access to a tackle that we need. They've always designed their roster and they've always approached a draft with how can we get guys that have high ceilings that are good football players?

Maybe they didn't test out the greatest, but they've got great technique. Maybe they had whatever issue that held them up in interviews or whatever, and other teams are cold on them, but you know that they're a good football player. They've done a really good job of identifying ways to bring guys into their building, develop them, and by the time they get towards the end of their rookie deal, even if they're not a star player, they're a solid, contributor and their guys similar to what we've talked about with other GMs. When they pick you, you usually stick in the league.

Even if you don't break out for Baltimore, chances are you're a player who can play in the league for a little while, at least for two contracts. And for that reason, I think that he just kind of separated himself from the rest of the pack in that regard. Yeah, I had the same thought that this is sort of like the Philadelphia version in the AFC. You know, this will be the team. This is the online favorite team.

You know, there will be some pick, like you said, Thursday. Friday, where everyone went, oh, the Ravens did it again. How did this guy fall to them? Oh, this is the perfect Raven, that kind of thing. And as much as I want to make fun of that,

you know, I like making fun of the hipsters, as much as the next guy, but you can't really argue with the track record. I mean, it's worked for them. They know what they're doing. They've had a good team for a long time.

Eric DeCosta, if you want to look at kind of the drafts he's officially had, I think you go back to 2019, but he was heavily involved before then is kind of Ozzy Newsom's right-hand man. So it's that stability you talk about. I think about David Ajabo, remember a few years back,

and that hasn't necessarily worked out. But it's like the freedom to draft a guy who's not going to contribute as a rookie, who's coming off of an injury, but you can take the long view. You can trade a pick this year for a pick next year. We will get to some GMs who I can tell you right now. They're not trading a pick this year for next year

because they don't know if they're going to be around to make that pick next year. So I think that stability does go a long way. I was just looking at, you know, their first rounders have been Hollywood Brown, Patrick Queen, Rashad Bateman, O'Dafay O'A, Kyle Hamilton, Tyler Linderman, Tyler, Nate Wiggins. Now you would look at that and you say, all right, there's some hits in there. There's some misses in there. I think for the most part, and we try to do this with all these GMs, take ourselves back to the

time these guys were drafted, were those reasonable picks. and I think those were reasonable picks. You know, getting Hamilton and Linderbaum outside the top 10 to really all pro-caliber players, you know, we'll get to some other GMs who they've had like their last 50 picks. They haven't drafted a pro bowler. Forget about an all-pro player. And it's not like the Ravens are drafting at the top of the draft. So I like that for the Ravens outside of the first round.

They've been able to find guys, Namdi Madibouquet, Travis Jones, like you said, a guy like Gino Stone, a safety who it's like, all right, he's not an all pro, but guess what? He got signed in free agency and was a starter. So I agree with everything you said. I do think the Ravens and Eric DeCosta, I would trust them. It was just like, hey, Sheel, I'm handing you an NFL team. You get to pick, you know, anybody in the league to do your draft this year. I think that the Ravens and that staff would probably be on the short list.

1,000 percent. I mean, you mentioned David O'Jabo. I think about Andrew Voorhees as well, who tears his ACL at the Combine. Everybody expects him to go undrafted. he's hanging around in the seventh round and Baltimore says, we don't need you to start right now. You can come in rehab. We've seen enough on tape to believe that if we can get you back healthy,

you can be a player for us. And now he probably projects to be a starter for them in 2025, right? Or at least be in the rotation. You mentioned David Ojabo. I think about Trenton Simpson. So that way when Patrick Queen gets paid high level starting quality money to play linebacker in Pittsburgh, you have a guy already kind of in the hopper ready to phase in,

even if he's not exactly what Patrick Queen was, you don't have to enter the 2024 season saying, well, this great tandem that we had with Rokon Smith and Patrick Queen is gone. We don't have a way to kind of replicate any of that effects, and now our defense is going to take a hit. And then the thing that I think they do, and even though we're talking about the draft,

I think that this kind of speaks to the holistic approach that they had. I think about them bringing in a guy like Chidobey-Wuzier, right, in this off-season to play corner. And it's like, oh, that was one of the few holes they had, is that they needed another guy in the rotation. So now when they approach the draft, you don't have to look at your first round pick and say, whatever corner is available, we have to take here even if it's a stretch. You're able to keep a Ronnie Stanley so that way you don't have to take the fourth, fifth,

six best tackle in the first round to try to plug that hole. They're just really wise with how they manage their resources leading up to the draft. So that way, they're never put in a position where they have to draft for need. They can always drive for sealing. And more often than not, and we've talked about this a bunch, That's the way that you want to approach the draft. You want to take chances on guys that you think can be star players. Bringing in Tyler Niederbaum would be something that we would critique a lot of other franchises for.

It works for Baltimore because they've got a solid enough infrastructure that you can bring in a guy who's maybe a little undersized, not as powerful as you might want for an interior offensive lineman, but we'll make it work with you. And you look at them now and, you know, you've got an all-pro caliber player starting at Center for you. You said that with Kyle Hamilton as well, we could go down the list of all these different boxes they've checked,

both high-level players and guys who were just quality to high-quality role players. Yeah, they really rebuilt that offensive line on the fly. You know, last summer I was beating the drum of slowdown on the Ravens. You know, I don't know, three new starters on the offensive line. And to your point, they had young guys' worries, Rosen Garden, even, you know, Falay-Lay was giving that. Like, not everyone's a superstar. Can these guys be competent starters and all those guys they were able to find in the draft? So they've been really good at that.

I also like the mentality of they definitely, I know I've heard DeCosta speak and he embraces the whole like, we're not going to out scout our peers. You know, we don't have this special eye where we can watch, all right, we're watching these 12 clips on film and we see something in this guy that nobody else sees. Like he understands that, nope, you want to draft for volume. They've got 11 picks this year. You want to play the comp pick game. You want to make a bunch of bets. They're not all going to hit.

and the more you get, the more chances you have of finding player. So just, you know, that probably shades my philosophy or my opinion on them a little bit is that I've heard him mention those things before. And I do think there's value in a GM and a staff who sort of embraces that saying, let's paint a whole picture of each of these guys knowing that we don't have some kind of magic eye that other teams don't have. So there you go, Ravens. Eric DeCosta, we both have you in that top tier.

the only team we have in there. All right. Next tier is where it gets interesting. I also am curious after we go through some of these if you thought about putting any of these guys in that top tier before deciding not to. So this is benefit of the doubt. Nobody's perfect, but you have our confidence. Again, we'll go team by team.

First team I put in here, Deontay, was the Buffalo Bills. Same. Okay. And Brandon Bean. And so he's had seven drafts under his belt. And I looked at it and I wasn't like, man, I'm blown away. They're crushing it every year. But again, I'm taking myself back to when these players were drafted.

I think most of the time I'm like, okay, this is a reasonable pick. They're not all going to work out. So there's seven drafts, first round picks, Josh Allen, obviously a home run, Tremaine Edmins, Ed Oliver, Gregory Rousseau, Chiarilum, and Dalton Kincaid. And so four of those six have made it to a big second contract. Kier Elam didn't work out. They traded him. Dalton Kincaid, I think is probably on track to get a nice second contract.

So that's a pretty good hit rate there. In later rounds, they found some solid starters as well. And of course, overall, they've been a really good team since Bean took over 77 and 38. So the third most wins behind only the Chiefs and the Raven. So I'll tell you in a minute, why I didn't have him in that top tier. I'm curious what you think, though, about the Bills and Brandon Bean. Yeah, I mean, I'm right there with you. He's got the benefit of the Dallas movement.

When you look when you take the long view and really, you know, kind of evaluate each of the players where they were picked and why they might have been picked then, this looks like the draft history of a team that's been making the playoffs since they drafted their franchise quarterback. And these are the kinds of tough spots that you land in. They have a few drafts where they didn't have a first round pick or they're picking so late in the first round you don't have your pick of the litter. And I think that they found decent value, right? I would say Keon Coleman, for whatever awards he may have or whatever his ceiling might be as a potential number one receiver, I think that he's going to be solid for several years. He'll probably end up being a second contract player for Buffalo as long as he stays healthy. You mentioned Dalton Kincaid.

I would say the same. I think we can quibble about the use of that pick in general, knowing that you already have Dawson Knox on roster. But the truth of the matter is that Dalton Kincaid does bring a dynamic to that offense that Knox does not. And I think that they might have been thinking, similar to, you know, talking about, thinking about the Eagles with Zach Ertz and Dallas Goddard, however many years ago, you start preparing for the day that you're starting tight in might hit a cliff or isn't as useful in the receiving game as he used to be. And I think that Kincaid has been a high-level role player for them. You get Osiris Torrance, who's been a really good guard in this league,

an instant starter, instant impact player. You mentioned Kyrie Elam not working out. But in that same draft, you get James Cook, who is a fringe all-pro level running back, somebody who's one of the best players at his position in the NFL this past year. Terrell Bernard has been a high-level role player for them. You get Christian Benford late in the draft, and he ends up beating out Kyrie Elam for that second starting spot at corner. I do think that there are some hits and misses, but I think that that's indicative of where they draft, and I think that their process is pretty solid.

And if you take it on the whole, if you're a contending football team and you're drafting like this on a year-in-year-out basis, you are exactly where the bills are, which is typically within a driver team of being able to go win a Super Bowl a lot of times or at least make an appearance for a Super Bowl and I expect that to continue as long as Brandon Bean is the GM there. Yeah, the 2022 draft is interesting, the one you just alluded to because they miss on Kayair Elam, but you get James Cook, Terrell Bernard, Khalil Shakir,

and Christian Benford in the later round. So that's a really good draft. It goes to show you. You can miss not you're not always going to hit on the first round pick. You can miss on the first round pick. can you make up for it later in the draft? They've got 10 picks, which I didn't realize until this exercise. They've got 10 picks, three in the first two rounds.

Like, this is a pretty big draft for the bills. And my one quibble, Deonte, why I didn't have them in that top tier, I wish there was like a couple more blue chippers in there, aside from Josh Allen. You know what I mean? They've thrown some resources at the pass rush, which I totally agree with. Smart. These quarterback you have to face in the AFC.

We saw it with the Eagles against Mahomes in the Super Bowl, get a pass rush that can get home with four. They've gotten solid players, you know, Rousseau, Oliver. They haven't got that guy who, and they've tried to chase him now in free agency. They chased him with Von Miller. They haven't got that guy where like the opposing offense

has to say, hold on now. We need a plan for this player because they will, the game wrecker. I really feel like they're a game wrecking, and this is easy for me to say. I know those guys, no growing trees, but a game-wrecking pass rusher away from maybe just getting over that hump. They've been in these games against the Chiefs in the playoffs.

Their offense has played well in those games. The defense has not been able to get stops. And so that was the one thing where I almost looked at it and said it feels like they're kind of high floor drafters, where we just mentioned a lot of useful, good, competent, starting caliber players. Not like they don't have those one or two all pros that you say, all right, this kind of puts them in the top tier. So that was actually the only thing that really held me back from putting the bills in that same tier with the Ravens.

I mean, that's exactly it for me is that the thing that separates them from Baltimore is that Baltimore had a draft that they got Tyler Linderbaum and Kyle Hamilton. And Buffalo hasn't struck on that kind of draft yet while they're in their contending window. If they were able to leave this draft with a high-level player maybe at safety and a guy that's got a high ceiling on the edge, we might come into the off-season or into the pre-season feeling like if these guys are the players that we project them to be, that changes everything for Buffalo's defense.

And that's really all they're missing is that high impact, change the math, offense can't run the play without identifying where this guy is and how he can cause problems on a play-by-play basis. If they can land that, then that really doesn't leave much distance between them, Baltimore and Kansas City as the teams that can go out and win a Super Bowl in the AFC. And you mentioned them having three picks in the top 50, top 60 this season. I think there's a grand opportunity for them to maybe double-dip in the first round if a guy slips. It's a good opportunity for them to really play with draft capital to make sure that

whoever they have at the top of their board is available to them when they want to pick them. So I think that this could be the draft maybe where Brandon Bean, if he nails it, takes that leap from one tier to the next. Yeah, sleepery big draft for the bills. Where you're like, come on, there's probably some bills fatigue. It's like we know what they're going to be. They're going to win 11, 12, 13 games. They're going to be a factor in the playoffs.

haven't been able to get over the hump. Maybe, like you said, next January or two years from now, we're like, man, that 2025 draft, they found one or two guys that kind of got them over the hump. They've got the resources. It's rare to be as good as they've been and had these kind of draft resources. So they've set themselves up to make some picks here in this draft. All right.

Let's take a break. We come back. We get to the kind of other team that has been the AFC powerhouse. Maybe. Maybe or maybe not. maybe they're in a lower tier. We've got some other AFC teams that have been pretty good.

Where do we slot them? We'll talk about all of them when we get back. The NFL draft is here, and if you want to make every pick a little more exciting, Fanduil is where it's at. The app is simple,

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Bonus issued as non-mithrawable bonus bets, which expires seven days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook. Fanduel.com. Gambling problem? Called 1-800 gambler or visit RG-Help.com. All right, we're back on the ringer NFL show. I mean, bad T's out of B, Deonté.

I'm like, well, I don't know where Deontay has these guys tiered. I know what team I'm talking about. So maybe we won't get to them right now. Maybe we will. Who do you have next in the benefit of the doubt? nobody's perfect, but you have our confidence tier. Last team in this tier for me, and I'm got to think that if I'm talking about this team,

that we must be thinking about the same ones, then that's Brett Veach and the Kansas City Chiefs. Yes. And it's funny, right, because we spent the back end of the Super Bowl and we podcasted from the stadium after that game talking about all the holes that exist on this roster. I was talking throughout the season,

especially in the playoffs about, oh, they're missing a piece here that will make things easier for them. They're missing a piece here that will make things easier for them. And that's something they could have addressed in the draft. And I think that all those things are true. All those things are true. All those things are valid. But again, this is a team that is constantly picking 30, 31, 32.

What do you want them to do? And when you look at where they're drafting and what kind of value they're getting from those positions, you can't really be mad at least with their top 100 draft capital. They've done a pretty good job at identifying players who can contribute for them. And even late in the draft, right? I think about Trey Smith. That's a huge win for them, being able to bring in a six-serratory. guy to play guard and now you've got to franchise tag him because he's too valuable to lose

out on right you think about Xavier worthy in the last draft being able to kind of wheel and deal your draft capital to get access to a guy that is valuable in their offense for whatever warts I may think he has as a pure receiver I think that there's a miss with felix and dicky usama but just like we mentioned with baltimore and with buffalo when you're picking that late you don't get to have your pick of the litter especially at premium positions like edge that guy just hasn't worked out, but they come right back in the next round and get Rishi Rice, who might be a top 20, top 25 receiver in the NFL when he's healthy and available. You get guys like Chamari Connor, and I think that this kind of speaks to not just him,

but Leo Channal. You think about Nick Bolton, you think all the guys that they've drafted on the back seven. I think that that's a credit to Steve Spagnolo and the defensive staff, but it does speak to the fact that there's a great, I think, marriage between what Brett Beach wants to do in the front office and what the staff needs in order to. to develop the best versions of their scheme. There's really not as much to be mad at outside of them maybe not keeping a guy like, maybe not getting more out of a guy like Legerius Knee before he leaves.

You only get one real kind of high level year for him before he departs. But they've done a pretty good job, I think, of drafting overall at most positions that they've had needs at on a year-to-year basis. I thought Veach was one of the hardest guys on this list to really evaluate. And there's different reasons for that. I mean, first of all, seven drafts, which I didn't realize that he didn't get named GM until like the summer after they drafted Mahomes. You know, he gets credit for there's all the stories about no, he was pounding the table for Mahomes. But that draft to get Mahomes, John Dorsey was still the GM.

And then Veach takes over in July there. So that was, you know, sometimes, oh, I forgot that that was the case. But the reason he's difficult is because I could easily make the case that having Mahomes as your quarterback, Andy Reid as your coach. and Spags as your defensive coordinator is kind of just the most GM-friendly situation in the NFL. That like if you can't figure it out with those pieces in place, then you're probably not a very good GM. So I was thinking about that. And then I was thinking like you about the conversation we had after the Super Bowl where it was just like, are they maximizing this roster? It feels like it should be better.

And then I do the draft thing. And I kind of landed where you landed. And I almost wondered, is it more like, is this more of an ownership thing about maybe not maximizing your resources in terms of free agency and salary cap and paying cash and trades and that kind of thing because the drafts have been pretty good. I mean, you mentioned all the names there. McDuffie, obviously a good pick where she rice getting him where you got him, Legerius, Steve, even though to your point, but to identify that talent in the fourth round, he goes and gets paid, Trey Smith, Creed Humphrey, you know, even just kind of

the lower level starting caliber corners. And again, that's one. where I go, well, is that Vech or is that Spags being like, I know the traits I want, I'll make it work and it does end up working pretty well. You could go either way. So it's just hard to separate Veach from Andy Reid's preferences, from Mahomes making guys look better, from Spag's making guys look better. But on the whole, I looked at it and I felt pretty good about how they've drafted there.

So yeah, we landed in the same spot. I mean, Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith's in the same draft. That's a huge win. That's a humongous one. You mentioned all the DBs. Brian Cook as a safety, starting for them, giving them quality snaps on a year-to-year basis now. I think if there's something that we can pick nits about, it's something that's just like very visually frustrating, which is the lack of receiving talent. And they've missed, they've had some pretty big, some pretty ostensible misses at that position over the last few years.

Sky Moore has ended up not giving them much of anything. We mentioned even last year, for all the production we got out of Xavier Worthy, there was a lot of that that was kind of gadget, production. I think towards the end of the year, you started to see what he can be as a receiver when he was slotted in a more, I think, effective role for his skill set. But you think about bringing him, Mikol Hardman when they were really trying to spam the speed receiver button. And he ends up not giving them much value outside of being a returner. Clyde Edwards O'Leary was a pretty hilarious miss for them at the end of the first round. I love Clyde Edward Taylor that in college. I'm like, I usually don't take the running back, but I'm like, oh, I get it. This guy's incredible.

Totally get it. Yeah, I remember at that time thinking like, oh, man, he's going to be awesome with that team. Totally get it. But it just ended up work out, right? And now you're looking at that as the 32nd pick in a year where you probably really could have used another starting level player, especially when you get to this stage where you're getting deeper into Mahomes's contract. There's not as much flexibility with free agency spending because you're paying a guy like Mahomes. You're paying a guy like Chris Jones.

You've got to pay these guys along the offensive line as well. Things are tight, right? Like things are tight. the decision making is not always easy, but again, on the whole, I think that they've done a good job at finding players that can play for them. Jalen Watson is a seventh rounder. Isaiah Pacheco is a seventh rounder. We might not love those guys as high-level starters, but they do a role and they do the role well within this scheme when they're healthy and available. If there's one thing that I think kind of sunk how we felt about them, at least in my recent memory, it's probably Kingsley Sua and Mattea not being ready to play left tackle when they really needed a left tackle. Juania Morris, yeah. They've taken a couple swings to try to figure out tackle that have not worked out, no doubt about it.

And you mentioned this with Buffalo and Edge Rushers because you're not making, because you're not landing those, the $15, 17, $18 million, you might have been able to spend or spread a little bit more evenly around the cap around your roster. You've now got to focus all that energy on bringing in a veteran who's probably not going to be worth the amount of money, but given the premium is a position that they play, you've got to overpay to bring them in. And they haven't had a lot of success with that either. So there are just very minor holes that do land you in a position where you're in the Super Bowl. And it feels like Patrick Mahomes and 21 other guys who are just clinging to the cape of Patrick Mahomes. And that might not be a fair representation of them on a year-by-year week-to-week basis. But that can happen just based on being a contending team and just some of the roster attrition and the tough decisions you have to make as a result of that.

It's funny looking at these GMs. Maybe just some guys, you know, they had, I don't know if it's blind spots, but they have a thing that they can't figure out. You know, we just mentioned it. The Chiefs, it's not like they've ignored offensive tackle. They just haven't been able to figure it out. I'm sure Ravens fans will go, all right, thanks for the DeCosta love. But there's been some, for the resources we've spent at wide receiver.

Yeah. You know, Zay Flowers has been good. The term on investment has been a little tricky. Yeah. We wish this looked a little bit better. We mentioned with the bills, Pat, you know, the pass rushers have been good. I wouldn't say that's a blind spot, but again, you just wish maybe you could have gotten a little bit more with the resources there.

In the NFC, we mentioned it with John Schneider and the offensive line. So it's funny how some of these, you know, GMs, you take away kind of one position and you would probably look at it and go, they're doing a great job. Then you add in that position and you go, all right, well, they can't totally figure it out. All right. So we both agreed Bill's Brandon Bean, Chiefs Brett Veach in this benefit of the doubt. Nobody's perfect, but you have our confidence here. Now, you correct me if I'm wrong, you said that was the last team you had in this team.

Those are the last guys on my list. I have some friends guys. We'll get to another two years, but those are the two solid ones I had. So I did the initial list, and I was with you. And then I said, all right, do I need to bump a couple? I had a couple guys that I basically was not sure where to put them, and I ended up bumping them up. So let me go over those one by one. You could tell me where you had them.

We can talk about these teams now, because I just, I was. confused. I didn't know where to put them. I put Pittsburgh Steelers Omar Khan in this category. Interesting. I don't know if it's fair. Where did you have the Steelers in Omar Khan? I have Omar Khan more in short-termism and maybe that's harsh based off the last few drafts. I just have not been a big fan of them identifying talent early in the draft over the last couple of years. Okay. So this was one where I really tried to go back to how I felt about it at the time of the draft. And so some of the things I like, they have dumped resources into the offensive line. Troy Fattano, Zach Frazier, were the first two picks last year.

Broderick Jones, their top pick in 2023. Now, I don't think anyone would look at the Steelers' offensive line right now and say that's an elite offensive line. But at the time, I think most people felt like, all right, those prospects have really high upside. And who knows? Maybe if the Steelers play well this year, we're saying, all right, that investment really worked out. George Pickens at 52 for, you know, I don't know if George Pickens is going to be on this team a whole lot longer, but, you know, it seems like that was a swing worth taking. And the talent has shown. And it's not like he's been a bust or anything like that. Keanu Benton, I remember liking that pick in the second round. So I was just looking at it going, all right, they got Joey Porter Jr. They got Nick Herbig outside the first round. So they've gotten some good players there. Now, there's a Kenny Pickett thrown in there in the first round. And so they still don't have their. quarterback situation figured out. And again, some of those players I mentioned, you wouldn't look at them and say,

hey, if you do a redraft right now, they're going to go really high because they haven't met that ceiling yet. But I thought, all right, overall, the process, see, I remember liking some of those drafts right after the draft being like, all right, what the Steelers did this weekend make sense to me. So it's going back there. It's only three drafts. I could easily put them in another tier, but I ended up convincing myself that maybe

they know what they're doing. No, and I think that you make a strong argument. I think that ultimately the tiebreaker for me was the fact that they haven't landed the quarterback. Yes. And that's why they're in short-termism because it's hard not to funnel everything that they've done in the draft over the last few years through the prism of they've always been good at finding offensive line. They've always been good at finding guys who can contribute to this defense. And usually there's not a lot of stress and strain on their young players to have to contribute immediately because this is more of a better and forward organization. They like to keep guys who are older, who are experienced, who have played the game,

especially in their system for a while. They want to keep those guys around and not put a lot on the shoulders of rookies. And that's probably an optimistic way of putting it. I think the more honest way is that Mike Tomlin doesn't trust young people to not make mistakes. But I do think that on the whole, they draft fine. Roder Jones was, I think, a really good pick based on when they made it. Because they didn't have access to the other top tackles in the class based on where they are. and I want to deal with what teams are in reality.

I don't want to be the guy that's saying, well, they could have traded up to get to seven or six. The Pittsburgh Steelers don't do that. So if I know that they don't do that, I only want to evaluate them based on the way that they typically operate and whether or not they're maximizing who they are as an organization. And for the most part, with these picks, you can see that they've made good moves.

George Pickens, whether he's traded or not, is a success for them, right? That he's ended up being a quality starter for as much as a knucklehead as it seems like he is on a week-to-week basis, is the fact that they've brought in a very duplicative skill set, which makes him a lot more expendable. And they paid that duplicative skill set, a lot of money in a way that makes it seem like maybe George Pickens won't be around for much longer. But I think even going into day three and getting a Calvin Austin who has been serviceable for them in the slot, I think is a success. You mentioned Keanu Benton and Joey Porter Jr. That's a really good use of second round

picks, guys who are quality starters, which is what you're looking for in the draft range when they got those guys. And then last year, I think we just didn't get enough time with Troy Fautano with Zach Frazier to really say like, okay, we know exactly who these guys are as players. I think at the end of next year, if all those guys are quality starters and the only thing they haven't landed is a quarterback. And the reason why they didn't land that quarterback is maybe because ownership said the guy who's in our backyard is the guy that we want to take in 2022. Then I think I might be a little bit more willing to bump him up because they've made good picks over the last few years since Omar Khan has been the decision maker at GM.

I'm just not totally sold because they have not landed that high, high value, you know, kind of game-changing starter at any one position as of late. Yeah, it's definitely the jury's out a little bit. We'll see what it looks like a year from now. Looking at their depth chart, you can kind of talk yourself into, man, if they could just get a quarterback, like there are things to this roster that, you know, every time I look at it, I'm like, okay, reminder, I like this a little bit more than I thought I liked it.

There are some players here. there's a potential on the offensive line. There's pass rush potential. There's a corner. There's a safety. You trade it for the wide receiver. There are things there to like. I don't know how it's all going to come together,

what their quarterback plan is going to be. But that's why I had con there. And then this next guy, no idea where to, no idea where to put him. I mean, I got Duke Tobin and the Cincinnati Bengals here, Deontah. You could tell me you're locking him out. You could tell me he's wild card. I don't know where you have him. He has been with the organization since 1999,

which again, we talked about it with Mickey Loomis on the last spot. Sometimes I'm like, man, I just don't know enough about this person. So this is a helpful exercise. Where did you have Duke Tobin and the Cincinnati Bengals? He also landed in short-termism because it just felt a little unfair, knowing that he landed Joe Burrow, T-Hing, and his Jamar Chase to drop him any lower than that. there's just been a lot of inertia, I think, with this roster over the last few years, especially on the defensive side of the balls.

They've lost veterans and tried to back to those with young guys. We just haven't seen those guys land quite yet. And I think that maybe last year's draft, last year's draft, I think, can turn into something that's really valuable for them. If Amarius Mims continues to grow as a player, if we get to see a little bit more value out of Chris Jenkins as an interior defensive lineman, I think it really hurts them not having Jermaine Burton be a guy who can contribute for them coming out of last year's draft, that would have been a big help.

And then you kind of have to shrug, I think, and just say that almost all of 2020, almost all of 2023 ended up being a lost draft. And I think that that's ultimately what set this franchise back. But it's not necessarily that they're making bad picks. It's just picks that haven't necessarily moved the needle for this team. And they're another team in this conversation, similar to Pittsburgh,

where they just need maybe one more needle mover to change how we feel about them, especially if it came on the edge at cornerback, one of those two, if not both, you know, getting above average or high quality young player at both those positions, I think would definitely change their fortunes. But otherwise now, I think that we're just looking at a team that's about average as a drafting team and got really hot in 2020 and 2021. And that's the reason why they're kind of a fringe contender now. So I thought that to honor that, I decided to drop him in short termism.

Yeah, I think I had him in short termism. And then I'm like, wait, but if the guy that I read that he's been there since 1999, so You know, that's still looking to save the job, right? I was going to do wildcard, need more information. And I'm like, Sheel, how much more information would you make? Yeah. Sample size is as big as it can be. Right, right.

So I had no idea what to do with him. I'm like, am I confident in him? No. Is he top tier? No, would I lock him out? No, that's probably not fair. Oh, just okay. Next time, next year when we do this, yeah, we just need a, you can pick one person for,

don't know what to do with this guy. Just okay. Something like that, because that's really where he landed for me. You laid it out well there. we've made this point before on the show that the process hasn't been bad, you know, Dax Hill, Miles Murphy, Marius Mims, you're trying to get ahead of guys you might lose in free agency. And they just, it hasn't happened. You know, Marius Mims was just last year.

So I think that would be huge. Very talented guy was raw coming out. So if he can develop into a quality offensive tackle, that would be big for them. The other guys haven't really worked out. But at the time, they were reasonable decisions. So that's what left me a little bit. Like I'm not sure in the later rounds, they've gotten guys. T. Higgins was what, a second round pick.

Chase Brown in the fifth. Their linebackers were, I think, day two or day three picks. So they've gotten some guys. But last six drafts, Deante, they've made 51 picks. And two guys have made the Pro Bowl, Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase. That's what hurts. That hurts. That's what really hurts.

If you're picking for volume and they've had a lot, they've had a few drafts or they've had more than just seven picks, And they haven't necessarily walked out of it feeling like the way we talked about with Baltimore where, oh, you landed four starters, right? You landed four starters plus two other, you know, high quality rotational pieces. They just have not had that draft. And once you get in season, you see all those holes. You get to see all those misses in the draft because they're all at positions where they

need young guys to contribute and those players just haven't been ready to do so. Yeah, yeah, no, no. And then I wasn't sure what to do with like the whole, well, how many scouts do they have? They don't have the resources other teams. So I was feeling friendly to Duke Tobin. You know, he might be operating it in a harder position. Like I just mentioned, Brett Veach. All right, I'm sure Duke Tovin would be like,

I would love to have Mahomes, Spags, and Andy Reid. Yeah, I'll give me my two scouts. I'll be able to come up with some better picks for those guys. So it is important to remember that some of these decision makers are in very different situations. But yeah, I ended up putting Tobin in that spot. All right. those are all the guys I have in the benefit of the doubt. Nobody's perfect, but you have our confidence.

So we agreed on Bean with the Bills and Beach with the Chiefs. I was feeling nice to Omar Khan and the Steelers and Duke Tobin of the Bengals. We're going to take a break. We're going to get to the wildcards. There are a lot of wild cards, a lot of very, you know, either first time GMs or first or second year having drafts. And we're going to go over them. And then I'm going to ask Deonté to just look at this crystal ball. Who do you actually feel good about even though we're at an information deficit?

All right, we're back on the Ringer NFL show. Deante, give me your first team in the wild cards need more information category. So this is a much more interesting tier to me than when we talked about the NFC because I actually had to break it up into guys who are actually wildcars to me and guys who I genuinely need more information on. So I have the cluster of three who are wildcars to me are Nick Casario in Houston, Joe Hortiz in Los Angeles, and George Pagan. in Denver. And I think the Hortugia might be able to drop in the need more information bucket

because he wasn't the chief decision maker in Baltimore and he's only got one draft under his belt in Los Angeles. But I think that, again, if he gets to borrow from some of the good equity that's been built up as in his time working with Eric DeCosta in Baltimore, I guess I may be feeling a little bit more positive about him. And I think that they got up some good value out of the 2024 draft in a way that makes me feel really confident about him. Nick Casario, you get CJ Shrout, you get Will Anderson. If I had to place them somewhere, if we didn't have the wild

card tier, I feel like you almost have to put them in benefit of the doubt right now, because I've got those guys, you get Camarie Lasseter, you get Kaelin Bullock, you've got Jalen Petrie in recent drafts. There are a lot of guys that have been early in the draft for them that have instantly become impact starters.

I think there's a lot of reasons to be happy with how Nick Casario has drafted, and I think that more of their misses have been maybe their management of resources and free agency and not being able to find day three guys often who can come in and be contributors for them as well. And then with George Payton, I think he may be the truest wildcard here because the franchise has basically been in two different places. You had the incident, you know, Russell Wilson, we don't even have draft capital with our upcoming picks. Because we

made this move to bring in Russell Wilson, we're building the team, thinking that we're ready to compete instantly. And now they're on the back end of that after having released. them dead cap coming available or coming off the books over the next couple of years. You're starting to recuperate some draft capital. And I need to see what that looks like in 2025 for them. I thought that 2024 walking out of that with Bo Nix, so it looks like he's going to be an average level starter at worst in the NFL is a big win for this team. You're able to get guys to contribute who are young over the last couple of years.

And I think if they nail the next draft, I would be willing to maybe bump them up or make him a little bit closer to a benefit of the doubt guy. as well. So that's kind of my cluster of wildcards. And then all the need more information guys are the guys that I'm sure you have in there as well, right? That's Elliot Wolf in New England and the rest of that group, which I know we can get to as we go on. Yeah, we can get to those guys in a second. I like how you clustered these three guys together. The Broncos are tough because I like Sean Payton's run the, you know, if Sean Payton went in tomorrow and it's like, I want George Payton fired.

They'd be like, okay, he's out here. So I think there were some rumors, you know, in previous years that we thought, all right, after this draft, there's probably going to be a split. Peyton's going to bring in his own guy or whatever. That hasn't happened. You know, George Payton is still there as his GM. You mentioned it. I love the point you made about even if Bo Nix is an average starter, I think we get lost

sometimes this time of year. Like, that's a great use of a first round pick. You know, if you get a competitive. Yeah. Yeah, starting quarterback. Like look at what teams will do on the open market in the trade market for like the number 16th quarterback. So even if that's what you think Bo Nix is going to be,

it looks like after his first year that that's a good use of that first round pick. And then I was looking at Peyton even before, it's always hard because there's two pains. George Payton, before Sean Payton got there, that 2021 draft, they got Pat Sertan and twin minors. That's a nice draft right there. I mean, Barron Brown and gave him some good snaps before he left for Arizona, you know. Right, right.

So, yeah, I thought, you know, even in the years he had before Sean Payton looking at his draft, those were pretty good. So, yeah, we need their wild cards, but it feels like the arrow could be pointing up on those guys there. The Chargers I was with you, you know, might get lost a little bit. It was only one draft, but they had a nice draft last year to get Joe Alt and Ladd-McConkie and then some useful defensive backs on day three. You got to feel pretty good about that. The defense still needs a lot of work. I'm with you. I kind of thought,

all right, Ortiz came over from the Ravens. I'm going to give him some of the benefit of the doubt here that he's coming from a smart organization that this is going to work out for them. Casario was a really tough one for me. Because you're right, if you just look at Stingley, C.J. Stroud, Will Anderson, and he's had four drafts,

you're like, this guy. Can't do much better than that. You can't do much better. I mean, you're literally talking top of the market corner. Will Anderson will be top of the market edge. And even though C.J. Stroud, you know, it wasn't a linear progression last year. I think we both still like C.J. Stroud quite a bit. And to get a quarterback who showed what he did as a rookie, that's a home run. Other stuff, I definitely ripped. I'll be honest, you know, when he trade up for Nico Collins that one year, I was like, what is going?

Because I don't think they had a pick until the third round or something that year. Right. And then I'm like, and they were in the midst of needing to rebuild, right? And I'm like, what are you doing, man? play for you anymore. Yeah. And it's Davis Mill and Nico Collins. It's awesome. Right. So got that.

You mentioned Petre. So he's gotten some really freaking good players through the draft. The process, I'm still, I'd hate to be the nerd. I don't know if there is a process. I don't know if there is.

Yeah, it's like there's another scenario. Now, it's easy like that's, if I were in the league, if I was Casario, I would be saying, shut up,

nerd, okay? I got the picks right. Now you're going to There is something to it like, you know, man, there's another scenario where if that's a different player who he did that for more of a 50-50 bet and it lands on the other side, we're going, what is this guy doing with his resources? So that's the only reason, because you're right. You could make a case you could have them a tier up, certainly with guys you're confident in giving some of those picks. I do think I personally want to see more and learn more because it gets a little harder now when you're not, you know, stinging. was the third overall pick.

Stroud with the second overall pick. Anderson was the third overall pick. To the point you've been making, now once you get down to the teens, to the 20s, now it's not as easy to identify, hey, I think this player's going to be awesome. So I want to see what it looks like

kind of in this next year or two when they don't necessarily have those picks that high in the draft and see if we're still feeling like, no, this guy knows what he's doing. What I will say, when you look at the whole of the, their draft history over the last few years.

These guys are not scouting all-stars. They're not going to South Dakota State to go find some guard that nobody else is paying attention to until they get to the senior ball, right? There's a lot of SEC Big Ten. Saturday night put on whatever the big game is and let's go get that guy. Which, hey, I respect, you know. And it has worked out in terms of getting Stingley Stroud and Anderson, right? Guys who were high-profile players throughout their college careers, very obvious

at their quality players with the high ceiling coming into the league. But then you look at the positions where you have to be really solid in your scouting, especially offensive line. And it's juice scrugs. It's Kenyon Green, right? Guys that have not given them much of anything up front. Blake Fisher, I think probably, he probably projects better as a swing tackle than a guy that you actually have to rely upon to be a day-in, day-out starter.

And he's going to be competing now, I would think, for a starting job as a young player going into 2020. because they've just, they've got such a lot of talent up front. That to me, I think if there is one thing that's going to keep them out of being in that benefit of the doubt tier, it's those kinds of picks. The pictures you're making with volume, not just what you're doing in the top 50, top 60, top 75, but what you're doing after pick 100 when you really got to dig in and be like, this is this guy's athletic profile.

These are all the gaps that you might have in his production, how long he played. He wasn't as athletic as other guys. at his position, but we know that he's going to be a quality football player. That's what Baltimore has done really well. Buffalo has obviously done that really well. Even Kansas City has done that really well. I need to see Houston do that, I think, and that might catapult Nick Casario. Without that, this just looks like a guy who knows how to identify stars, which is great,

but you are now officially a franchise that can't access stars without highly leveraging your draft capital in order to do so because you're going to be picking on the back half of the first round more often than not. and this is going to put a lot of strain on their process, if I'm assuming based on what I'm looking at, is I'm just trying to take big school, big name guys. Yeah, check back in the year. Let's see what it looks like,

how we're feeling about that Texans team. You're right, that's one where the offensive line, maybe that's a little John Schneiderish, when we're looking at it going, because I mean, what they've done there this offseason, I haven't found a person who says, this looks great, they fixed it. You know, I love the guys they brought in here.

So let's see what that offensive line, looks again, looks like for them again next year. All right, you mentioned it. There's kind of another tier within this tier, and these are kind of the first time GM. So these are New York Jets, Darren Mugi. I don't know if it's Mugi or Mugay. I'll be honest. I don't know how you pronounce his last name.

But I'm going to go Mugi. And if I'm wrong, I'll correct it by the next podcast. New England Patriots. You got Elliot Wolf and Mike Brable. So it's Elliott Wolf's second draft. I think we believe, yeah, Mike Rabel's running the show there. You got the Jaguars, James Gladstone. It's his first draft.

And you've got the Titans, Mike Borganzi. It's his first draft. And the Raiders, you got John Spytec, his first draft with Tom Brady in the draft room, with Pete Carroll in the draft room, with Mark Davis in the job. Man, give me a little draft hard knocks in Las Vegas. Man, that is an interesting group there having to come to, some type of decision with a consensus with their picks. All right, who's the first team you want to start with here, Deontay,

that kind of has your interest? I guess I would say SpyTech, right? Because you mentioned it is for all the characters that are involved with Vegas. And I will just say it's like this cluster of names. If you just look at the names, this looks like a detective's room with some, you know, mid-70s. We're trying to bust up the mob in New York types of names. Gladstone, SpyTech, Borgonzi.

Elliot Wolf, this is 1,000% looks like a major undercover operation to take down for families in New York. But I will say spy tech because I think, and I think that we mentioned this coming out of free agency, they go out and get Gino Smith, you look at some of the moves that they're making, you start hearing rumors about maybe it's Ashen Genti. Is it going to be T-MAC? Are they going to go in another direction with the draft? I think that not necessarily that there's tension. There's just a lot up in the air in terms of what kind of team-building approaches this. franchise actually going to take, right? Pete Carroll was all about, I want big athletes, big strong athletes to come play for me in Seattle, right? And it worked for them. I think that Tampa Bay was similar in a lot of ways, but I think that a lot of their focus was on the trenches in a way that

didn't necessarily exist in Seattle all the time. Seattle was really good at finding perimeter talent that were big strong athletes. Tampa Bay a little bit more offensive, defensive line, front seven talent. So I'm really fascinated to see in the top 100 this year how this works out. And I think that would be indicative of how this team views its team building process going forward and who really is going to be holding the keys to the franchise over the next few years. So I'll say, yeah, Vegas is definitely the most interesting in that respect. Yeah, this note from Vic to Four and to Sean Reed, who do a great job covering the Raiders for the athletic, you know, they got this little draft guide up and it says scouting the

decision makers. And it says, besides SpyTech and Carol, new minority owner Tom Brady, who hired both is expected to be in the draft room and who has final say with the number six pick will be fascinating. So like, that's not couch. That's not a rumor.

These are two guys who cover the team who are saying, he Tom Brady hired both SpyTech and Carol and Brady's going to be in the draft room. Man, that is really, really interesting. I really think we're going to find out what to make of this Raiders organization

with that sixth pick. Listen, I love Gentie. as much as everybody else. But to your point in the previous mock draft that we did, the more that eat your vegetables pick is probably going to be Memboo. If he's there, or somebody like that, hey,

build the trenches, be smart. Don't just go for the exciting running back. Do they do that? I could see them doing that with this regime, honestly, Tom Brady and I could see Pete Carroll saying, yeah,

that makes sense to me. So they might all be on the same page there. But one of the more fascinating things, teams in the draft. They've got the sixth most draft capital. They've got three picks in the top 75. If they have a really good draft, can this be a sneaky playoff team? Right. Next year. Yeah, the Raiders haven't been sort of this relevant, this interesting to me in quite a long time. So I think that's a good one to start with there. Let's see. Who will be next year? Next interesting to me, maybe it's probably the Patriots here, Deonté, because

Rape has similar reasons, right? Yeah, same reasons. I mean, Elliot Wolf is still there. Now, sometimes what happens is a team has like a draft thing in order

and then they hire a new coach, but they say, well, we don't want to just fire all these guys now because they've done all the work, especially a team like the Patriots that's presumably been doing work on the draft for, you know, a long, long time knowing

they were going to have a top pick. So this could be one, who knows what happens after the draft. Could they move in a different, direction. I don't think that would shock anybody. I don't think Vrable is going to went to a team this offseason without being like, I'm having final say here. It's my GM's trade and AJ Brown. That's not happening again the next place I'm at. So I do think it's fair to look at this as Vrable's decision. They weren't able to address the

offensive needs they have in free agency in the trade market. And I just don't like, is Vrable good at this in terms of picking players? I'm not sure. We don't really know. based on some of the evidence in Tennessee where he had a GM and John Robinson and then they bring in Rand Carthon. There were definitely power struggles at play there. So I don't know if he's good at it, but man, they've got nine picks, four in the top 100,

and you have Drake May on a rookie contract where it speeds up your clock a little bit if you feel good about the rookie there. So they are another interesting team in this tier for me. As I said with Las Vegas, right, I didn't want to characterize that as tension. I'm not as friendly. I'm not feeling as optimistic about this one.

This one feels a little bit more like tension, knowing what we know about Mike Rable and how much he was angling to get to a franchise that was going to allow him to have an outsized say on what was going on with personnel. And I understand that, right? Because a lot of Tennessee's success while he was there was kind of based on him having his veteran guys

that he was able to get the most out of and his coaching staff and all of that. So I do want to pay a little bit of respect to that. I just think if you're Elliot Wolf now, and this is maybe a tough thing with this franchise, now you know in the top 100, we've got to find offensive playmakers that can instantly change the way that this franchise looks.

And that's maybe the only way he gets to save this job. And if not this saving this job, it's maybe putting this on your resume so that way you can go get the next one. And I don't like when teams are approaching the draft that way. You never want to see teams drafting with that kind of stress and strain. So I'm wondering what they're going to do, obviously in the top five of this draft, do they trade down?

Because somebody is looking to move up to go get a quarterback or an Abdul Carter or Travis Hunter if those guys slip. If they're sticking at 4, what is the pick there? Do you want to get a Travis Hunter there? There's not really a lot of high-end offensive playmakers in this draft except for that guy. So there's a lot, I think, to be kind of figured out. And we might just find out by the time the draft gets here, the Mike Vrable walked in the room and said, here's what you're doing in round one.

Round two and round three, and I'm leaving the road by day three. I can care less what you're doing on day three. That's all you. And now you got Elliot Wolfe of his hands kind of tied behind us back. So I'm really fascinated to see the way that this draft plays out, especially early for New England. Yeah, that's a good one. How are you feeling about the Jets here?

Yante, first draft, new regime. They are true wild cards. I mean, I don't know, like, does Aaron Glenn have? How much juice does he have there? What direction are they going to go in? They sign Justin Fields in the offseason. What sort of has your interest with this New York Jets team? It's really trying to figure out exactly what direction they view the next two to three years to be going in, right?

Like, is this our wide receiver room is really rough. Offensive line is aged, taking on a lot of injuries. Olu Fashano might be the only guy that we really feel like has a strong, strong future with this team. We need to take the long view. Or is this a team that said, hey, we went out and got Justin Fields because we think he can be a baseline, line level starter, and we're going to start dropping in pieces now that are going to allow us to be competitive in the AFC East, right? That to me, I think is what I'm most interested in, and they can go in five, ten different directions in the draft. If they take an edge rusher,

because they've whipped on other edge rushers in past drafts, I would understand, even though this team has spent a lot of draft capital there, because it's a new regime, and they're not married to Jermaine Johnson and Will McDonald and some of the other guys they've taken chances on unsuccessfully in past drafts. If they want to address offensive line, chances are one of Will Campbell and Armand Membue will be available there and they can trade back as well, right? If there's a team that's getting a little anxious about Shador Sanders, maybe New Orleans is sitting at 9 and they're sitting in a lot of signals that Derek Cars may not be playing much this year. So we're thinking about rookie quarterback. Maybe a team feels like they've got to jump to seven to get in front and they're able to recoup some draft capital.

And then obviously that opens up the entire book for what they can do with the draft. Or they could go and look at wide receiver. maybe Tessoroa McMillan is there. Maybe they train back and they go receiver plus offensive line plus something else in the top 50 to 75. So there's just so many different doors that they can open. And this isn't a team that's walking in with a GM that's served for a long time at another franchise where you can look and borrow from some of their decision making in the past and be like, okay, that's what New York's going to look like.

This is also a team that's got some interesting ownership dynamics that we talked about during the season. You don't know who's putting their thumb on the scale and who, in which way, and you don't necessarily know exactly how much Aaron Glenn has to say on this franchise, right? Best case scenario is something like D'Amico Ryan's, or he steps in with an inexperienced GM, and he says, hey, give me impact players, you get me impact players, I'll get you wins immediately. That's the highest level outcome here and probably the hardest to get to, and maybe that's not the case. Maybe Brick Johnson and Woody Johnson say, we brought you in, because you're obviously a hometown guy in terms of where you played in the NFL, somebody that

the fans can get behind. We're going to give this a long leash, but we're the ones making decisions. Us and the GM are the guy and you're just going to take whatever ingredients we give you and you're making the best dish you can. So there's still just not, there's not clarity yet on what kind of decisions they're going to be making. And free agency didn't really give us much in terms of what this team thinks is going to be like in 2025 and 2026.

Yeah, some of these teams that don't have the QB, I would be looking to get some 2026 draft capital, you know, especially for someone who is a first time, like you're in your first year as the GM, you know, you don't feel like you need to nail. I would, now, I don't know, sometimes that's not possible. That's easy for me to say, you might, you need to have the right trade partner. But for a team like the Jets, who signed Justin Fields as kind of this band-aid, hey, let's see where we can go with him, but we're not signaling that he's our long-term guy or anything like that. Next year's draft, whether it's Arch Manning or Nussmeyer, whoever you know, whoever you like, it seems like as of now, and these things can change, that you're going to have

a better chance at landing a quarterback next year in the draft than you would this year where it's kind of Cam Ward and everyone else. So can you get a top 50 pick next year by moving back, whether it's, you know, giving up your first round pick, giving up a second round pick, whatever. that's something I would definitely be looking to do if I were a team like the Jets here. You look at their roster and I feel like a couple years ago was like hey they've got, you know,

they've got a pretty good roster. I don't feel as good about it anymore. You know, it's just going through the debt chart. It's like needs, wide receiver, tackle, tight end, defensive tackle, safety. They have some players I like, don't get me wrong. Linebackers, Quinn and Williams, Soss Gardner, Garrett Wilson,

hopefully Foshana was good. So they've got some players. players I like, but it still needs work. And so I think it would behoove them to really take the long view and be patient and say, hey, let's not kind of, we could draft best player available. I think that's absolutely what they should do, positional value, best player available, but also look to, hey, can we get some draft capital for next season and really build this thing?

So we'll see what the jets do there. Jacksonville Jaguars, another interesting team in this tier. James Gladstone. Again, they are a sneaky, interesting team here, Deontay, because Gladstone's 34 years old, comes from an organization where we all put less neat in the top tier when we did this exercise in the NFC. So he comes from a good organization. Again, young guy, we're not, you mentioned the, you know, spy tech thing. Like, I feel like Gladstone's backgrounds a little bit like mysterious.

Like, wait, what exactly did he do for the Rams there? He was helping with their scouting. I think was the big thing he kind of moved up the ranks there. Does he have some outside the box ideas? At the same time, they got a lot of draft capital. They have the second most draft capital in this draft. They have four picks in the top 100. And if you feel like Trevor Lawrence and Liam Cohen can be an effective combo,

if you have a good draft here, could this be a team that finally turns things around? So I think Gladstone and the Jaguars are kind of sneaky, interesting also in this draft. I agree because I don't. don't we don't really know what director of scouting means unless Sneed has been in St. Louis slash Los Angeles as long as he has been. Just because you're the director of scouting, doesn't necessarily mean that you have final say in what kind of players land where on the board

and how much influence you might have. And I'm just saying that specatively, right? It's entirely possible that Gladstone really was Sneed's right-hand man. And if Gladstone said, hey, we like this guy, we think that you should really angle to make sure that this guy ends up on the roster. and that worked out, that might have been a lead reason why the Rams have been able to kind of pivot their roster out of what it was in 2022 and what we've seen over the last couple of seasons. And if that's the case, then that's great for Jacksonville because what we've seen from Los Angeles over the last few years is they know how to find value in day three. They know how to accrue a lot of draft capital by moving back in drafts by being able to

play around with those round two, round three picks as necessary to bring in a volume of picks that you need to help this roster. And Jacksonville is the exact kind of team that needs that sort of approach, right? I think that they've got a lot of guys that are decent or better in a lot of spots. They don't have high impact players. This would be a year to go get one. They don't, the issue with where they're at now at five is that they don't have control over what's available to them, right?

You can't guarantee that Abdul Carter is going to be there. You can't guarantee the Travis Hunter's going to be there. You can't guarantee that one of the elite tackles are going to be there for you either. So I think that they're in an interesting spot in this. draft, but I'm really fascinated to see how Glassstone views walking into a situation where you've got a top five draft pick, you've got a team

that could use a high volume of picks, but there is going to be a guy at a position of need that you could take at five, and nobody will be mad at it, right? Mason Graham out of Michigan would be a clear pick and obvious one. Nobody would protest that or have any issues with the given the other needs

on, given the need that that is on the roster. But he could come in and shake the whole thing up, right? Maybe he and Liam calling are working kind of in tandem and they say, hey, we want to bring in multiple guys on both sides of the ball. This isn't just to address the front seven draft for us and maybe we can accrue some 2026 draft capital as well. I can understand that from Jacksonville's perspective too, right? So there's a lot open for them and I think similar to New York, the only thing that makes it difficult for this team is that they don't have control over the draft board because they're

drafting behind a lot of other teams that are also looking for blue chip talent at premium positions. All right. Last guy in this tier, I think, unless I forgot anybody. Mike Borgonzi from the Tennessee Titans, join the Titans organization after being with the Kansas City Chiefs. He's got the first overall pick. We all think we know what he's going to do with the first overall pick. And draft Cam Ward. Is there more to it, Deontay, or is it, hey, draft Cam Ward and cross your fingers. Draft Cam Ward, cross your fingers. And you can't make any evaluation until we see what Cam Ward is like with Brian Caller. and in this offense, right? Like another place where you're talking about a GM

and Brett Vich who has been running the operation for a while, I don't know exactly how much influence or what his power was in the building there, what his process was like, and if it's going to be a deviation from what Kansas City did, or if he's just copying and pasting that for Tennessee, now that he's in place here. So we've got to see what the first overall pick looks like is Cam Ward.

And if it works out, then we'll have at least an idea of how he, evaluates that position and then it's going to be a challenge of what it's going to be like with the rest of this roster because this isn't a team that's a quarterback away from competing. This is just a team that can't even get to average or mediocre

until they address the quarterback position. I will give them credit in the offseason. At the time, you're signing Dan Moore to a big contract to play left tackle and it's sort of a head scratcher. You're signing Kevin Zitler, who's one of the oldest guards in the league

and they're saying, what are they doing? Now it comes into focus a little bit, which I think that's smart. If you're going to overpay, overinvest in an offensive line to get ready for a rookie quarterback coming in, that makes a lot of sense to me. So I probably ripped those moves at the time, not having the looking ahead to the draft, because at the time we weren't sure, are they going to draft Cam Ward or not? Now I get it. So that seems like a reasonable plan.

Do everything you can when you're drafting one of these guys high to position them for success. Easiest way to do that. Offensive line, another way, wide receiver. we'll see another one schematically play calling we'll see with those but if you're a Titans fan I think I said this on our mock draft pod like I would be excited let let's

it might not work out but you know what is very exciting as commanders fans can tell you is having a young quarterback who you know has a is good right away or it kind of changes everything right away and that is in play you know to have that I'm not saying that that Jaden Daniels

season could go down as one of the best rookie seasons we've seen in a long time but like Can Cam Ward be a okay starter with some flashes that are really exciting? Yes, that's in play. And an AFC South that might be a little bit up for grabs there. Who knows? You know, you got a last play schedule. It could be an exciting 2025.

But really, you just want to see those whatever. It is a handful of plays every game where you say, we really have a chance with this guy going forward. So I think Titans fans should be excited about that. All right. Last two tiers here, short-termism. are you picking to save your job or building for the future? Who were the teams you already had in here, Deontay, that we talked about?

I had Pittsburgh with Omar Khan and Duke Tobin with Cincinnati. Okay. All right. So who is? I have two other teams in here. You can lead us off. Who is a team you have in short-termism? So I have Chris Ballard here.

Yes, sir. See, and the funny thing, right, is again, I think that we're, this tier is almost being used as a placeholder for like, guy, I'm not all that confident. but has made some okay picks over the years and has been there for a while. So we've got a long enough track record to really be able to evaluate them completely. Because you look at what he's done outside of Brown 1, and there's really not a lot to be angry at, right? I think Di O'Don-Dangbo, good player for them. Jonathan Taylor, you get in the second round, good player for them,

especially where you're getting him as a running back. Michael Pittman as a wide receiver, makes sense as a second round pick, even if he's not a star player. You get Julian Blackman in the third round, who provides value for you. Rockieson, second round pick, who provides value for you. Bobby O'Carike as linebacker, I could go down the list of day two picks that they've landed, that have been starters for them.

He's in a really good job at identifying players in those spots. The issue is that I just don't trust this guy with first round picks, because the first round picks have not really landed as high value players outside of Quentin Nelson in 2018, right? And that's a long time ago now. Right? You don't have, first of all, they don't always have first round picks available to them. That's another thing that I think is really maybe bothered me about their approach is that they don't seem to have the same kind of value on first round picks that I think

they should. And I don't think that their return when they are dealing first round picks is worth giving them away for whatever they're bringing into the whatever picks are bringing in to replace them. And a lot of this also hinges on Anthony Richardson and what he's not as what he hasn't been as a quarterback over the last two years. Right. And that the trajectory isn't looking very optimistic for him either. Not that I don't think that he'll start this year, but based on what we've seen from him as a starter, there's not much reason to think that a ceiling is going to be the highest. That does kind of factor in to the calculus here for me. So I don't think it's bad. I just haven't loved what I've seen in the first round. And ultimately what separates

you as a GM is not necessarily whether or not you can land at volume. Because like you said, with Eric DeCostis quote, none of these guys are master scouts, right? You're not going to beat the game that often. The truth of the matter is that you need to find big time difference-making talent, and you just don't have enough of that with their top picks in the draft. Yeah, I always just look at their roster and I'm like, it's fine. Yeah. Like you described, all right, some solid players here, solid stuff.

I'm never looking at it going they're loaded. I'm never looking at it going they're terrible. Even now I looked at the depth chart. I was trying to be like, where is this team above average? Sorry, Jonathan Taylor, I would say above average running back. You can make the case for the D line, which I don't know that that's for sure above average. I think that's one of those like whole better than the sum of its parts. I don't know if I love any one of those players individually.

Right. All right. DeForest Buckner, Grover Stewart, Quitty Pay. These are, you know, these are some good players. Maybe Lato becomes a really good player, but I'm not, you know, I don't think we're going to be in November next year going, man, their pass rush is unstoppable. So you laid it out well. wrote down some hits, some starting caliber players. But sometimes what I like to deal with the guys who've been around for a long time, all right, well, how was the team performed? And there's 62 and

69 since he took over. So I don't know what the case would be that now I know there's the Andrew Luck thing, which I swear to God, it's going to be, you know, 2048 and they're going to be holding a press conference. Like, no, you guys don't understand though. Andrew Luck retired. It's like, I understand that was like a rare occurrence, but at some point you got to get over it, man. It's been, you know, you got to, you have to figure it out after that. And so I know that was unexpected, but I can't hear about that anymore. In their last four drafts, Deonté, 36 picks have accounted for zero Pro Bowl births now. Pro Bowl, again, it's a low bar with how many guys get in, but they just, it's another example.

It's instructive because it's a low bar, though, right? Yeah, yeah, right. You're giving them the benefit of the doubt with it. Right. And you still haven't been able to find guys there. So I think short-termism is fair. I mean, they are a team that they got to be feeling the heat. You know, they're, I feel like the messaging out of indie has been,

we're trying to light a fire under Anthony Richardson. That type of stuff with me for professional athletes, man. Yeah, I don't know. Like, okay, the best, you know, the best version we got from him was when he felt like he had to fight for. It's like, okay, you know, there are other ways. to reach people, you know, like, I don't know, but maybe it'll work for you. Maybe he'll come out and that will, we'll be reading about how they lit a fire under him and he's having a great season.

I just don't know. I'm not confident that that's going to be the case. They have missed the playoffs for four straight seasons. I mean, NFL, GM, if you go five straight seasons without even making the playoffs, guys usually don't survive that. Now, Ballard has survived a lot. 2017, nine drafts. Seems like a nice guy.

I feel like he'd find another job, maybe not as a GM, but, you know, someone would hire him for their front office, kind of an old school scout type guy who gets along with people, which there's something to be said for that. I feel like he's a poster boy for the guy that you, that annoys you, right? Because everybody in the media is going to say, like, oh, man, he's so great to talk to you. He's such a good guy. And it's only because he'll sit down and talk to you about all the picks that he's made and the contracts he's handed out and the why. And I think he's authentic with that too. But, yeah, that can't be the reason why you're a good GM.

Exactly. Exactly. Do you bring in good football players? Right. And I think that he brings in decent football players. I think that he's got a good enough track record of that. But that next tier up, again, what makes you a Brett Veach, a Brandon Bian, and Eric DeCosta, he is very clearly not that, right, based on the track record that we have so far. Absolutely. All right.

So we both had the Colts in there. Who else do you have in this tier? So this is a fringe guy for me. So I'm really interested to hear how you feel about him. is Andrew Barry and the Browns. That's my other short-termism guy. I have a really hard time looking at their draft history and saying, am I only saying don't lock them out because I like some old draft picks

and like similar to what we talked about with the Coeur d'Ophomanza? I know he's smart. I know he has a pedigree coming from a scouting background where guys made good decisions in Philadelphia, right? So there's a connection kind of piece there. He builds good relationships in the media. another guy that people seem to like and enjoy and he makes for a good press conference. Like, is that clouding my judgment here?

Because you start looking at what the drafts have actually been like. And it's like, I see exactly why this team is in the position that it's in before you even get to the Deshaun Watson piece of it all and using your draft capital to bring in that guy. They just haven't made very good picks as of late. Greg Musum, good pick. Obviously, you give that up to that. Jeremiah Wussu Kouramo, he's got warks, but he's a pretty, decent linebacker, a starting quality

linebacker, you'll live with that in the second round. Jethrick Wills is not there anymore, right? Not on the roster, yeah. Right, you have a need at left tackle now. And even him, I would say they didn't get the most out of what he was. If you're considering what you thought of him coming out of college,

which was another one of those big time left tackle prospects, the D.Bs they brought in outside of Newsom have been kind of up and down, outside of Newsom and Ward, have been up and down as of late. and you look at day three and you're really kind of scraping to find guys that have stuck around that have contributed to winning football for them. And this just has all

the makings of a team that is mired in mediocrity at best and in a constant rebuild at worst because they have lived in a lot of ways and ways that they really couldn't afford to, especially over the last three years after making their deal for Deshawn Watson. So I did the tears one time through Deontay

and I didn't have, I wasn't locking anyone out of the draft room. And so I said, chill, that's soft. You can't be doing this exercise and not locking anybody out. That's the most fun part of the exercises. Who are we locking out of the draft room? And I'm locking Barry out of there. I'm not mad at it.

Which, so this is an interesting nuance, which is why I like having the conversations because it's not just an article where, you know, he's out of there, move on to the next thing. I actually think that if Andrew Barry were fired and I would. was running an NFL franchise and had to hire a GM, I would be interested in being Andrew Barry's second stop, you know, and saying, all right, the Cleveland thing didn't work out for you. I think you're a smart guy. I like your background.

What did you learn from that? Is there a, and I would really, like, I think he may have a bright future in the NFL, whether it's Cleveland or somewhere else. But then I looked at this exercise, and I looked at how we're assessing all these decision makers and he's had five drafts. And we can't just say, well, he didn't have first round picks

because he was the GM when you made the worst trade in NFL history and signed the worst contract in NFL history. So I can't just separate the two and say, well, you didn't have a lot to work with? Because you did a horrible job with the draft capital. You have. It's been an unmitigated disaster. The Deshawn Watson trade.

Some of it was predictable. Some of it was not predictable. I do think if we would have done a, podcast at that time, we would have said, no way, are we doing this trade for this guy, given everything we're talking about with him? This is crazy and the guaranteed contract. So it's not hindsight bias to assess that now. So I looked at that and I said, I can't like absolve him of that right now. So that's why I had him in this, in this category here. And then to your point, I was looking at the picks that he did make, five drafts,

37 picks, one pro bowl appearance. And this Jeremiah Wosu, Coromo, who is not an all pro type player, but made a Pro Bowl one. So they haven't hit on the picks that they've had enough. You look at this roster. Again, this is another one that a few years ago you would look at this and go, this is one of the better rosters in the NFL. You know, that was their whole thinking. If we can just figure out quarterback, we got a lot of things to like here.

Not the case anymore. Below average at wide receiver. Offensive line has taken a step back. You know, you're going into the season right now with Joe Flacco and Kenny Pickett. as your quarterbacks, the defense took a step back next year, even though I think they have some good players on defense. It was just not a place I would want to be, and I can only assess based on the evidence we have.

Now, I will say this. Andrew Berry worked under Harry Roseman for a year or two, and I think Howie Roseman's best strength as a GM is digging himself out of a hole. Sometimes it's been a hole that he's created, but he can, you know, that Carson Wentz contract, he can get out from under that where you say, you can't do anything you signed here. Nope, he found a way.

And I think this really is Andrew Barry's chance to prove he can do that. They have the most draft capital in the NFL. Four top 100 picks. Can you prove that you can get yourself out of this franchise altering misstep and get this franchise again going in the right direction? I think at first it felt like the Watson thing would define him. he actually has a chance, a second chance with the same organization, which most GMs, I don't think get that second chance after something like the Deshaun Watson thing.

He has a second chance here. So a huge, huge draft for him again, overall, if I'm starting a franchise, I wouldn't have him in this tier. I would say, all right, let's talk to him. He's an interesting guy. But based on the evidence, I'm locking him out. Andrew, give me the key card. I don't hate it. I don't hate it.

I mean, that was a conversation I was having with myself, right? like, again, if you're just judging the results, if you're only judging the results and not zooming out, not taking a view of, what was ownership's influence on this deal? I don't think in a, even if an ownership, if ownership group just tells you, we want to trade for this guy and not, he's got to be here right now and I'm going to give him all the money he's asking for, maybe you don't give up all the third and fourth rounders that you do. Maybe you don't give up three first round picks to bring in a guy who was not even actively playing at that time anyways, right? So I do think that, I do think that I do think that.

think he deserves a lot of criticism for how he handled the negotiation there. I think that they could have definitely walked away in a much better position in terms of draft capital and bringing in this quarterback and Dessar Watson than they did. Obviously, the contract kind of is what it is. I do think a lot of that is ownership as well. And if you're taking the most optimistic read on this as possible, you don't necessarily wipe Andrew Barry's hands clean of it, but you acknowledge like, okay, a lot of this is the Haslam family saying what they want to make happen. But I do think to your point. I mean, the drafts have not been great. This is a very analytics forward organization. They've definitely put that out publicly, right? And if you talk, if you speak with them, they will

acknowledge that as well that they try to be on the cutting edge of understanding how to use analytics to bring in players and identify talent. This is the year to take everything that you've learned from the failures in your day three picks, from not having top 100 draft capital, from trying to, you know, doing your advance scouting to bring in veterans to help, trying to identify players that work within your system on both sides of the ball. If Andrew Berry is the GM that you said that you think he can be, that I believe he can be at his best, this is the draft to prove it. You walk out of here not only by bringing in good players, but I want to see him use

this draft capital and leverage it in trades if it's available to be able to bring in a higher volume of picks, especially in the top 100, so that way they can finally start to rebuild some of the depth that they've lost. Because you look at the roster now and you mentioned it. Not only are they missing bodies on the offensive line. the players that they have that we've liked over the last four to five years on the wrong side of 30 have dealt with injuries, right? Joel Betonio dealt with a lot of injuries.

And he's not the only one on that offensive line who has done so, right? I want to see this team finally start to kind of drop those pieces in. It's going to be a long rebuild. You're probably not going to be clear of all this mess until after the 2026 season anyway, given Deshaun Watts's dead cap numbers. I want to see this be the first step, even if they're bad again in 2025, that they're identified how to bring in some starting quality talent that can help make this rebuild a two-year project instead of a five-year project. Yeah. They're another team, to your point, they should be

looking at some 2026 draft capital. They don't have a plan at quarterback, and they have a pretty valuable pick. Now, we're going to do a mock draft with trades later this week. Would there be a team that would call and say, hey, we will give up a first round pick in 2026 because we want to get up there for Travis Hunter or Abdul Carter, man, if I'm the Browns, I would really be strongly considering that because this is not the best draft to have the number two overall pick. That could be much more valuable next year specifically with your need at quarterback than it is this year. So that's something else to keep an eye on.

All right. I think we only have one guy left here, Deante. Chris Rear. I don't think there's any ambiguity about where he's going to land. Well, I don't know. I might have been a little bit nicer to Chris Greer. Are you locking out Chris Greer, Deontay? Absolutely locking out Chris Greer.

This is not even a conversation for me. I gave him short-termism. Okay, make the case for short-termism. And then I can follow up with why he's locked out for me. All right. Short-termism is that the drafts haven't been a disaster. They've kind of been okay. You know, they've had 10 drafts or nine drafts, I think, under Chris Greer.

You know, Laramie Tunsell was a, they didn't hold on to him, but he was a good pick. Mika Fitzpatrick, they didn't hold on to him, but he was a good pick. Christian Wilkins, Wilkins, good pick. Tua has outperformed, I think anybody's expectations. Now, there's some bad ones in there, but, you know, Charles Harris, Austin Jackson, Noah, Igbenagany, those haven't worked out. You got Jalen Waddle, good pick. Jailen Phillips, good pick.

Chop Robinson looked promising last year. So it's been hit or miss. I'm not telling you it's perfect or that he's awesome, but there have been some good picks in there. And later rounds, Javon Holland, Andrew Van Ginkle, Devon A-chan.

So I just looked at it and I thought he was, I was going to lock him out. But then I'm like, I don't know, is this that much different than some of the other track records we've looked at here. So I could see certainly putting him below

and locking him out. I don't think that organization really has a plan. I think he's definitely one of these guys. who cozied up to the owner might be unfair, but obviously, you know, like some of these organizations, the owner has a GM who they like, and that GM has a lot of job security, even if the team doesn't have a lot of success.

And I think Chris Greer falls into that category. So I do look back at that 2020 draft where they had three first round picks, and man, Tua, Austin, Jackson, and Igbenagini, you would hope to do better than that in that draft. So that's definitely not the best one. And I just thought it fits short-termism because they're another team like the Colts where it feels like if this season goes sideways for them, there could be a lot of change coming in Miami. So it sort of felt like there's some, even though he has had that job security, that there could be some pressure on him here.

He's locked out for 20. I mean, 2020 just has an outsized influence, maybe for me. And it's not even about two. I actually think that two is a success. If you just look at the fact that, again, quality starter. Is he a world changer? No. And he does have health issues, right? And that complicates when you start talking about his contract and how long you think you're going to get the best version of him on the field on a season to season basis. So I definitely knowing how I feel about Tua, I'm still kind of up in the air, but I'm willing to give him some credit for that. The issue is that you take Noah Igwinogany and you just look at all the picks that came after. And it's so many starters in the 2020 draft on the defensive side of the ball that they definitely could have used in the defensive backfield. as well. You look at Austin Jackson and it's like the guy basically from day one has just not been

a contributor at tackle for them. They've had to draft over him. They had, they brought, you know, they lost Laramie Tunsel and had to bring in Toronto Armstead because Austin Jackson was not ready to take over at that spot. You go draft Patrick Paul to try to compete for that spot because Austin Jackson's not ready to take that job. And then you look at the management of draft capital in the years after, right? You bring in Tyreek Hill. Really fun move at the time that it happened. He's been a very productive player, so I'm not saying that dealing what would have been a mid to late first round pick for him was the wrong move, given what you got out of the player for the next couple of years. But you look at this roster and the way that they drafted after bringing in Tyree Kill. And I don't know if that deal was worth making if this is the drafts.

These are the drafts you were going to have lacking that kind of capital. They don't have many high value players that they've drafted early. Maybe Chop Robinson turns into something, but that's the guy coming into the NFL. that you knew kind of had some limitations based on size. Can you be a three-down player? Patrick Paul is not showing anything yet. We'll obviously get a bigger look at him this year with Theron Armstead retiring. And I just look at like, Jalen Waddle was good, but Jalen Phillips has been hurt.

Maybe if you land on Jalen Phillips and he's available and he's a high-impact player, on a week-to-week basis, I might feel a little different. But a lot of this to me just kind of centers on you whiff so often in 2020. the best pick outside of two was Robert Hunt, who's not in your building anymore, right? And that hurts as well, especially given their knees on the offensive line. And they haven't done anything in the drafts after

to kind of make up for some of those misses in 2020. And they lost draft capital in trading for Tyree Kill. And I can understand short-termism just from the prism of the draft. And I think maybe it's just hard for me to not look at how they've handled free agency, how they've handled the veterans they've brought in on top of how they've drafted and just look at Chris Greer and say, what is this thing that you have made for us? And why has this window shut on this team ostensibly this quickly after bringing in a guy like Tyreek Hill

and paying to a Tunga Vailoa to be your quarterback of the future? Yeah, he's another one where it's hard to disconnect just the draft performance from everything else because like the trades and the other stuff. You mentioned, and you know the point I made about Ballard where if a guy's been around for a while, well, how is the team performed? They haven't gotten out of the wild card in, you know, since he's been there. And that's overseeing nine drafts. So you can't say that, you know, you're being too harsh.

The team's been good. Well, no, the team hasn't really been a factor. They've had good Septembers and October's. And then we know what's coming after that. And that's with a coach who it feels like is at least doing some stuff offensively. And you've had a system that works. But overall, they're not that relevant there. So listen, I'm fine, locking them out.

You want to change the key card for Chris Greer. He can't get in there. He can go hang out in Miami and do something else during the draft. All right. We got to everybody. That was a lot of fun. I feel like looking at, you know, sometimes you have a vision of a team or a guy or an organization in your head. And then you dig deep and say, all right, when did they take over?

How is the team performed? How have they used their resources? And it reshapes some of those things you think. So it's been helpful for me as we look ahead to the 2025 NFL draft. All right. Later this week, we have our second and final ringer NFL mock draft rule. Louise rejoins. We got trade. So the next 48 hours or so here, I'm going to have to go to the trade machines and look at, all right, what's a fair trade to offer? You know, can I dupe one of these

guys into making a deal with me that they shouldn't make? What teams might actively look to move up? What teams might actively look to move back? Who are the prospects who might be, if they slip a little bit, might draw some of that interest. So that's going to be a lot of fun. We're going to do that later this week. Again, if you miss the NFC version of the show that is in your feed, that was a lot of fun as well. All right. Thank you to Deontay Lee.

Thank you to Christopher Sutton for producing. I'm Shield Capadia. We'll talk to you next time on the Ringer NFL show. Must be 21 plus and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus and present in D.C. Gambling problem. Call 1-800 gambler or visit RG-Help.com. Call 1-888-7-8-9.

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