The Ringer NFL Show - AFC Playoff Selection Committee | Dual Threat

Episode Date: December 7, 2023

After the controversy caused by the College Football Playoff this past weekend, Nora Princiotti and Steven Ruiz uses the committee guidelines to pick who they would like to see represent the AFC for the upcoming NFL postseason. The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please check out theringer.com/RG to find out more, or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Hosts: Nora Princiotti and Steven Ruiz Producer: Stefan Anderson Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Musical Elements: Devon Renaldo Social: Kiera Givens and Eduardo Ocampo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, everyone. This is Craig Horlebeck from the Ringer Fantasy Football Show. Join me, Danny Hifetz and Danny Kelly every Monday, Wednesday and Friday to help you win your draft, win your league, and most importantly, avoid that last place punishment. Follow the Ringer Fantasy Football Show on Spotify. Hello and welcome to Duelbray. I'm Norvati. And we are here for the second time this season, I think, Stephen, to revisit the AFC. There's a month left in the year. And I think this is going to be the second time that we've done. done a pod, kind of going back through some things we thought were true about this conference and

what's actually turned up happening. The first time was when we had to question what I had posited at the beginning of the season about the AFC being the obviously stronger conference of the two. This time we're going to look within. We're not comping the AFC and the NFC, but we're just going to look at the AFC sort of power ranking order and who the cream of the crop has turned out to be, which if you look at the playoff picture as it stands right now, the thing that sticks out to me, that has really been the thing that's undermined all those predictions from before the start of the year, is that success in this conference that we previewed by talking about the all-star quarterbacks and how some number of, you know, the 10, give or take, high level

quarterbacks were going to be left out of the playoff picture has actually turned out not to be defined by exemplary quarterback play. It's been the Steelers sort of miraculously winning these close games and winning with defense and just good breaks the ball. It's been the Browns having an elite defense and it's been teams like the Colts with Gardner Minshu now just getting a lot of contributions from players around the roster

who, you know, are not superstars, not people that we sort of expected to lead a team to success at the beginning of the year. I'll ask you first, Stephen, is there anything besides just the randomness of quarterback injuries and the football gods that's brought up us to this point, you think, where we do have four. First of all, I have to commend you for getting through your explanations of why

these teams are winning because it's very hard to explain, especially with the Steelers. It's just like, I don't know, it's just kind of happening. It's just happening. They're the Steelers

and Mike Tomlin is in the stadium, so it just happens. But it kind of just feels random, right? Like it doesn't feel like there is a valid explanation for it because the explanation we would default to normally is, oh, they don't have a good quarterback.

And that's the difference between a good team and a bad team. but you look at the time, especially, like, you don't even have to look at the playoff picture. Just consider this. The two best quarterbacks in the NFL are a combined four team and 10 in the season, Patrick Mullen and Josh Allen. Wow.

Yeah. Like, that's just a ridiculous, everything we think we know about football and how to build a team and how important the quarterback is, like that just contradicts everything we think we know. And I think that's been almost the theme of the season. Like, I know I've been pushing back against Brock Purdy winning MVP, but it would almost be fitting. that he wins it, considering like the struggles we've seen the elite guys at the top of the

quarterback hierarchy have this year. Well, or even, I mean, look, again, if you look at the current AFC playoff picture, the number one seed, and that's because of tiebreakers and stuff, but right now the dolphins are the number one seed. And that's a team where the elite receiver, I think, and correct me if I'm wrong, because I don't know the most up-to-date information on the betting market specifically. but the elite receiver on that team is probably more likely to win MVP than the quarterback. And the quarterback who's not too shabby, right?

But it still speaks to the nature of how that offense works that Tyree Kill probably has a better case on the team than Tua. And that's one of the teams where we're not really talking about them in this conversation, right? Because they have a healthy starting quarterback. He's contributing to wins. All of that. What we're really talking about is, okay, CJ Bethard is going to be the quarterback of the Jaguars for the time being. Sounds like Trevor Lawrence is likely to come back down the road. He's dealing with a sprained ankle, which is less severe than it initially looked like it could have been on Monday.

The Steelers have Mitchell Trubisky starting over Kenny Pickett right now. Kenny Pickett's probably going to come back in a few weeks from ankle injury. but I mean, potato potato is a little bit of case with that one, at least to my eye. Min shoes, um, going to be, uh, the Colts guy going forward. And then Joe Flacco with the Browns, I think is going to continue to start games. They're putting him on the, the, um, practice squad right now, which just has to do, I think, with, with roster numbers, it seems to me that if he can continue, um, looking similar to how he did on Sunday, they're obviously going to, good.

going to want to go, go with him over PJ Walker. But that's four of seven AFC teams in the playoffs right now on backup quarterbacks. And when we talk about why that's happened, I mean, it is just injuries. The other thing is that there are so many injured quarterbacks this season that some of those Steelers wins, right? Those are coming against other teams with other injured quarterbacks and everyone is just playing each other and like stacking wins against weaker opponents and and some of the resumes and some of the um the the collection of victories that have gotten some of these teams to this place is

is I think um a little everything is eating itself is basically what I'm trying to say there are so many injuries that it is making it. you know, it's inevitable that some of those teams are going to be in the playoffs, but also how they got there has to do with some of the injuries as well. I was going to say that's what makes like separating these teams just by using record so hard. By just like looking at the AFC standards, you're not really getting a great picture of the power structure of the conference. Like for instance, the Colts and how we kind of talk about them, there are only two games back of the Ravens.

Like if the Ravens go on like a little Coltrick and the Colts get hot, they would pass them in the standings because they have the tiebreaker. This season is so jumbled that it's just so hard to sort out this mess. Like everyone, like you said, they're just eating each other. And that goes for like the bad teams

against the good teams even. Obviously, you are not actually making this case. But this would be the season to end up with something like, you know, number one seed, the Gardnerman shoe colts. It's not going to happen, obviously, but it's closer within the realm of possibility

than it seems like it has any right to be. So we were having a conversation about this and just the state of things in the AFC with all these injuries, with what the field looks like right now, with teams like the bills currently on the outside, just feeling like we would be missing out by not having that team, by not having Josh Allen in the playoffs. And what did we say, Stephen? What was the thing that we realized we really needed here?

Well, I think we realized after talking about the college football playoff and how everyone was upset about the system or the thinking that went into leaving Florida State an undefeated team out of the playoffs, I was thinking, and I think everyone agreed, like, we say we don't want that. We want it to be earned on merit. But if we have to watch the NFL playoffs and Gardner Minchie was playing PJ Walker on a Saturday afternoon, we're going to be pissed. They were going to be like, God, I wish they did it like the college football playoff. So I think that's what we should do. I'm not saying, none of us are saying, or at least I'm not saying, that we would like to permanently implement the college football playoff committee for the NFL. But I think that we can agree that if you look at this year's AFC,

it kind of seems like a job for the selection committee. It works on two levels, too. It's not only the level of, oh, we get to enjoy better matchups in the playoffs, It's also the thing that we just got done doing with Fowage football, we also get to complain about the system in the first place. Like, we leave the Jags out because Trevor Lawrence does make it. And then everyone's like, oh, they went eight and four. They're winning the AMC South and you let them out.

Like, that's not fair. And there's nothing we love more than complaining about like injustices in sports. That's the whole point of refereeing, right? We get both. We get the best of both worlds. So we thought that we would appoint ourselves. Naturally. A two-person NFL.

playoff selection committee. And we're going to kind of use the rubric that the college football selection committee uses, although I think everybody knows that that's kind of black box in terms of what actually goes on and how it actually works. Either that or they just look at what would get us the best TV ratings and then just make some decisions based on that. But on the website, the committee is supposed to place an emphasis. It says that the committee is supposed to place an emphasis.

on winning conference championships, strength of schedule, and a head-to-head competition when comparing teams with similar records and pedigree. We are supposed to honor regular season success while at the same time providing enough flexibility and discretion to select a non-champion or independent under circumstances where that particular non-champian or independent is unequivocally one of the four best teams in the country. Now, obviously, some of these things are not, are apples to oranges with the NFL, but I think you can kind of loosely say

that we could think about division winners in a similar way. So if a team seems as though it's going to win its division, we're supposed to sort of honor that, sort of think about it, but if there's really strong evidence to ignore that in favor of a team that might come in second in division or something like that,

we can make the decision to do that. And then when circumstances that the margins indicate that teams are comparable, then the following criteria must be considered. Championships won, strength of schedule, head-to-head competition if it occurred. And then this one I thought was interesting. Comparative outcomes of common opponents without incenting margin of victory. This couldn't matter less. This is like the eighth bullet point.

Why don't we care about margin of victory? I care about margin of victory. I think margin of victory matters. I don't know. All the nerds, all the research tells us that it does better. The nerds love margin of victory. And isn't that, like, this is college. So the dolphins don't get credit?

America's colleges are just like ignoring data here. Yeah, it's terrible. Dolphins don't get credit for scoring 70 points. We played the noise every 10 minutes. Does that mean nothing to you? Also, very sneaky of the college football committee, I noticed when you were reading that back, they snuck in pedigree as one of like the,

the facets of their decision making. Yes. I'm going to, I'm going to exploit that. Because I could just be like, oh, yeah, I like this team better. Like, they're just historically better and we like watching. So do you think that's what pedigree means to them? It's not like, it's not a season to season thing about what your results have been and how good a team has actually been in the year.

Do you think it's like, yeah, well, people know Alabama. So we're going to need to. I think it's what you said at first. But I think that's how they end up using it. It's just like, sneaky, sneaky. So that's what it says on the website. But the upshot is basically that we can do whatever we want.

So I hope we take both the writ rules of the game and also the spirit of the college football playoff committee, which is just to fuck around whenever they feel like it. So we're going to apply that to the AFC playoffs and seed this thing as it should be seated. So let's take a quick break. We'll come back and then we'll start doing that. Score early this NFL season with Fandul, America's number one sports book.

Right now, new customers get $150 in bonus bets when your first $5 money line bet wins. We're coming up on one of the games of the season, Bill's Chiefs on Sunday. And the overender, it's at 48 and a half. That seems kind of low for both Josh Allen and Patrick Holmes in a really critical situation. I kind of like the over there. There's also a weekly special for either Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen to record 400 or more passing yards. That's plus 850. I think that's another fun one.

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money wager required, first online real money wager only, $10 first deposit required, bonus issued as non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt. See terms at sportsbook. fandule.com. All right, we're back on dual threat. Steven, without further ado, who is your one seed for the dual threat

AFC NFL playoff selection committees seating? I think this is an obvious one for me. And I don't know about you, but I pick the Ravens. And I pick the Ravens because, one, I think they have the, they've been the most impressive on the film, on the film, on the field,

like however you want to want, when you watch them, they look like a team that's the most complete. Defense and offense, they have an MVP candidate and Lamar Jackson, although he's kind of on the fringes now.

But also, I feel like it's been a while and they've, I guess the Browns game didn't happen too long ago, but they've avoided losses against, like, their competition.

Their losses have come against teams where you could frame them as a trap game, like the Colts game. That was just a weird game that they lost, and I don't, I don't know if they've, came to play. I don't think they played their A game. The Browns game, you could say the same thing,

but when they've played, like, the Lions at home, when you have a chance to, like, prove a point to the league, they proved that point very convincingly. When they played the Bengals earlier in their year, they proved that point very convincingly. And I think they were, I think they would have won that game, that Thursday game before Burrow went out, but like, obviously that kind of throws the wrench in things. But they've beaten a lot of good teams convincingly. And I don't think you could say that about the other teams at the top of the division. Like, the Dolphins' most impressive win. It's probably that Denver game, which, you know, at the time, not as impressive as it is now.

The Chiefs, they haven't looked good all year. So I think the Ravens are a no-brainer. How do you feel? Complete no-brainer. Would love to see this team end up with the one seed. IRL. Clearly the most complete team in the conference.

I think, I mean, we've talked about the case for them having the best defense in the league. Offensively, they can be explosive. They're balanced. We have an all. always seen their best game, but we know what they're capable of there.

I would love to see this team make a deep playoff run just because I'm excited about every game where we get to see the Ravens go up against a quality opponent. One, just because they're a very good football team, it's fun to watch them. But two, because they can, you never know what's going to happen. You never know what the game is going to look like. I think you often use the phrase like styles make fights in the playoffs, especially. And I think the Ravens are really uniquely positioned to take that to other teams, but also to be able to roll with the punches if they get a team like the 49ers.

That's really good at just kind of enforcing their style of football on you. I think that's going to be, we're going to get that matchup in the regular season. Right now, if I had to pick what the Super Bowl matchup feels like it's going to be, I would say, Ravens 49ers. And it's just a really interesting one because when we talk about, the Baltimore offense, they can beat you through the air, but they can also beat you on the ground. They can do it with a combination. Defensively, it is such a flexible unit.

McDonald is such a good game planner, so good in games. They can deal with different types of offenses. So this is me just talking about how much fun I think this year's Ravens team is. I don't even really think that we need to spend a lot of time making the argument for the Ravens as a one seed. the two other currently tied for record teams at the top of the conference are the Chiefs and the Dolphins, and I think both of those teams have looked noticeably more vulnerable than Baltimore this year.

Yeah, I think that's like the interesting question. If like the Chiefs were 9 and 3 instead of 8 and 4 and had the same record as the Ravens, would we put them over them because of the pedigree aspect, because we've seen them do it before. I think it's funny to laugh off the word pedigree, but that does matter in the playoffs, right? Like, I've seen Patrick Mahomes do this.

We've never seen it. We've never seen the Ravens do it. And, like, that would be the one thing, like the only team that I considered putting over Baltimore, and this would be a total college football playoff. Like, I just care about ratings and nothing else was the cheeps. And really, like, the argument makes no sense. If you actually lay it out, it's all based on vibes and haven't seen it before.

So I think the Ravens have the strength of scheduling on their side, too. They play in the hardest division in the conference by far. Like the last place, Bengals are six and six and just beat the Jacksonville Jaguars with Trevor Lawrence playing most of the game. I think they have the best case. Like any way you look at it, they have the best case. And it's also not like, I think, look, the chiefs, and rightly so, the chiefs have gotten a boost. all year in our site power rankings, in most forms of rankings that are subjective,

the chiefs are always going to get a boost because they have the best player in the league. And they just won the Super Bowl. And we've seen them do it and we know what it looks like. And we know that they are never, as long as Mohams is healthy, they're never out of a game and they have more playoff experience and they have a great coach and they have a good defense

and all that stuff. They always get a pedigree. boost. If you didn't know anything about the chiefs before this season, it would be completely rational to think that this was not a very good offense. And I think you have to, I think that has to, I mean that has to matter here in terms of like, are they number two or number three? Not really any lower than that. Also, like, they're still going to easily win their division and in a year when offense is down across the board, they're still a high-performing unit.

But it is still to me more than enough to say that they should be below the Ravens. How much below the Ravens, I can either spoil where I went after this, but I'm curious who your two-seed was. Yeah, let's have that conversation. I think this is the one where I kind of deviated from what I thought I would do.

I'm going to put the dolphins second. after looking at their case. Part of it is kind of just like us fucking around and me wanting to see Patrick Holmes finally play a road playoff game. And that may not happen if he's the two-seat. It's more likely to happen if he's the three-seed. But I think when you factor in how it's looked,

which is something that you have to factor in style points, I think the Dolphins A-game has been more scary than the Chief's A-game this year. And I know the Chiefs beat them head-to-head. but it was a close game. If Tua doesn't like, if Tua and I forget the receiver at this point, but the two of them and that receiver don't have the miscommunication. It probably goes to overtime.

It was on the road in Germany. It was a weird game. Yeah. And I think if they played again, if they played next week on a neutral field, I'd pick Miami to win. So that's really interesting. I put the Dolphins as a three seed and the Chiefs as the two seed.

I agree with you. It would be probably more fun if the Chiefs ended up as the three seed just because it would make it more likely that they would have that game on the road. It's, in some ways I thought about it in a similar way, but just sort of the flip side of the coin, which is that I think the Dolphins A game has been better than the Chiefs A game, but I think the Chief's B game has been a lot better than the Dolphins B game. And we've seen both. So I think the dolphins bottom out in a way that the Chiefs really haven't, even when they've been less explosive, less impressive.

it's a little bit more like, oh my gosh, how did that receiver not catch that pass? But they're moving the ball as a whole and the defense is still good. I trust the chiefs to not get blown out, whereas I can see the dolphins just meeting the wrong defense, getting their timing disrupted. And the one thing that I don't trust about that team

is their ability to find the counters. And so to me, that gives me more questions about them when they start, when they get into the playoffs. So I put them behind Kansas City, but that was one of the, that it's an interesting, close one. Should we use the, like, the tiebreaker procedure that they have? Let's apply it.

Championships one, they're both winning the division. They're both winning the division. Strength of schedule is a good question. I'll look up their strength of schedule. Okay. So far. Head-to-head competition, if it occurred is one. That goes to Kansas City. Comparative outcomes of common opponents.

And then I'm ignoring the margin of victory piece of that because I don't like it. I mean, that would have to go to the dolphins, right? Because for instance, who's a common opponent? The Denver Broncos. That game went pretty differently for the dolphins relative to the Chiefs. The Jets? that game is obviously different quarterbacks, but the chief struggled and almost lost

and maybe would have lost if not for some questionable calls. The Eagles, they both played, they both lost too. I think the Chiefs were more impressive, but not in a significant way, I wouldn't say. I don't think it was like... When they both lost ultimately. Yeah, and they both lost anyway, so... I think it still goes to Chiefs.

I think the Chiefs have the slightly harder schedule, and they won the head-to-head. So I guess you're right. It has to be the Chiefs. Because they have a harder strength, the schedule? Yeah. All right. So I think that does give it to Casey. So we have Ravens Chiefs and the number three is all vends. Who is your four seed? See, this one was the toughest one for me. And I went with the bills. I picked the bills. I'm sorry. I can't make a compelling case for any other team.

Like who would you, if we're, obviously Trevor Lawrence's injury and we don't know the extent of it necessarily. We don't know how it's going to affect him. A high ankle sprain could be, could mean anything, really. We saw Patrick Mahomes win a Super Bowl in a high-enkish brain last year, but we've seen other quarterbacks kind of struggle and that injury linger. So how are you justified... Go ahead. If the Bills and the Jaguar, I know this isn't the whole thing, but if the Bills and the Jaguars play tomorrow, who would you pick? Tomorrow? With C.J. Bethard playing quarterback, I would think the bills.

Or, okay, Trevor Lawrence at 80%. I know they played earlier this year, so they have the head-to-head. The Jaguars have that against working... I would probably... pick the bills if I knew that Trevor Lawrence was going to be playing her. But if we're it like that's what the committee did with Florida State. I guess it's different with Florida State because they lost their quarterback

and the Jaguars might get theirs back. But that's kind of the idea. So you have to justify that this is it's not just a vibes pick because the bills statistically have been a very good team this season. Right. Exactly. They just don't have the win loss record to show it.

But I don't. I don't. know, are we really adhering to the criteria here? If we can put a team, what's the bill's record right now? If we can elevate a six and six team right now, a 500 team, we're making them the four seed? I do think we have to consider division winners a little bit more than that, which is why I put the Houston Texans as the four seed. Because I think if C.J. Bethard is going to be playing, let's say, let's call it the next three games,

something like that. I think the Texans are winning this division. And if that offense, with a quarterback who's been in the MVP conversation, ends up a division winner, ends up with the better record, obviously, than Jacksonville, would,

probably have a better record than the other wildcard teams. Although at that point, if you win the division, I think that that's enough of a, that that fits the criteria enough to say that they should be a higher seed. I mean, can we really make the argument that the bills, the analytics argument and just the presence of Josh Allen? We can make from the foreseed just based on that. It's not just based on that.

though, I don't think. I think it's based on, one, they have the best quarterback of any of these teams we're discussing outside of Patrick Mahomes. Two, they have, their six,

seventh in DVOA. I think they're fourth in the AFC in DVOA. So, like, DVOA at least backs up this take. Their schedule is one of the hardest schedules in the league played so far.

And their losses, like, they're not that bad outside of the Jets game. Well, and they still, what is, they still haven't lost the game by more than six points.

Right. They lose a close game to the Broncos when the Broncos have been playing better football. Like, they had a winning record. It's not like that was a terrible defeat when it happened. If they had lost to the Broncos when Vance Joseph was giving up 50 points a week, sure, but that's not when it happened.

They lose to the Jaguars in England after the Jaguars have been in England for a week already by five points. I don't think that's like a loss that tells us a lot about either team. The Patriots loss is hard to get over. And that's the one thing that's tripping me up here. But I think there's enough around that with like their performance based on stats and the underlying numbers, the fact that they have Josh Allen, so we know the ceiling is very high.

And the fact that they've played a hard schedule and yeah, the record isn't great, but they haven't been embarrassed at really any point the season. They can play with the Eagles. They can play with the Bengals when they have Joe Burrow. They can play with all these teams. They killed the dolphins who we put in as the second seed. I don't see an argument against it other than like

with loss record is the only argument against it. I do think it's a pretty good argument against it though. Because at some point at some point we have to penalize them for not winning the damn games but that means we had to credit like a team like the vikings last year for winning the games and we didn't do that we were smart not to do that and we end up being right in the end because we never refused to do that it's the other side of that things can be a matter of degree right like we could you know spoiler alert i have the bills in in my playoffs where do you have them i have them

See, I put them at number seven. Ooh, okay, that's too well. Okay. Let's put the difference. So here's what it is. I put them at number seven because I just didn't, I felt like the way, the way into the playoffs is to win games.

And they simply have not been able to do that. So I felt like based on, based on the eye test, they deserve to squeak in there. but I just didn't feel like they deserved anything more than that. First of all, the way to get into the real playoffs is to win games. These are the fake playoffs. These are the fake playoffs. You don't have to win games.

I can put the, I'll put the, I'll put the Panthers in the playoffs. I'll put them in the AFC playoffs. I don't care. I mean, but I... So here's the other thing that I would say, though, is that aren't the bills the funniest seven seed? Because you have, you know, say the, the, I mean, if the chiefs wound up with the two seed, that's interesting and that's a rematch of the game. that might have mentally scarred Josh Allen for life.

But maybe it's the dolphins, right? It's the dolphins. You're not thinking about this as Nora the podcaster. Can you imagine the takes off of a Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson wildcard playoff game, one and done? We'd have to have a take about it. And I don't want to have a take about that. No, it actually upsets me.

But no, but the Ravens are going to get the one seed in this world. So that's fine. And then say it ends up being, like, say you're the. Dolph. And you've, you know, you've had real highs this season. You've also had some lows. But you make it through. You win the AFC East.

You're the division winner for the first time in how many years in row of the bills won it? It's like three or four at this point. You finally knock off Buffalo for the AFC East title. You're so excited. You get into the playoffs. Everything has finally come together. Last year ended how it did.

This year seems so much better. Excited. Real aspirations. And then the first playoff game you have, all of a sudden it's Josh Allen, the bill. Like you're getting ready to play the Steelers who can't move the ball at all. Or the Colts are plucky,

but just not a team that has superstars the way that the Dolphins do. You feel really good about the Miami defense. going against Gardner Manchu and that group or something like that. And then it turns out to be Josh Allen. I mean, that's hysterical. That's so sad. That's so annoying. That's scary.

It is a good bit. So I think because the most is the seventh seed is just good drama. Can we do, okay, can we compromise and put them at the fifth or 60? Because I think it makes more sense the way you're doing it because it follows the divisional format. So having the AFC South, the best team from the AFC South, makes sense for them being the four seed. So I will give you the Texans at number four. You'll give me the Texans. I like that pick. And I like them over the Jaguars. I don't think we should even have to explain why we think they're over the Jaguars. Because when these two teams played this year, over the course of

120 minutes, I thought the Texans outplayed them. Obviously, the Jaguars won the last game, but things have changed because Trevor Lawrence isn't healthy anymore. I think that's the justification. And the Jags next three are against the Browns, the Ravens, the Bucs, and then they finish the season with the Panthers and the Titans. I think if you were Jacksonville, you might wish that you could jumble that schedule up a little bit and not have two current playoff opponents in these next couple of games where it really does seem like they're pretty likely to be without Trevor. also gosh darn it Trevor Lauren's not being in that Ravens Jaguars game is annoying Sunday night football

why can't we have nice things I just don't know but I agree with you that that we don't really have to make the argument but also just on a schedule level it seems pretty likely to me that the Texans have

a very good chance of leapfrogging Jacksonville just with who the Jagger are going to have to play without Trevor. Let's go through, let's do five and six, and then let's figure out where we want to slot the bills in. Okay, because I really want to know who you're five and six are if you have the bills at seven. So I had the Jaguars at five and the Browns at six.

Okay. I had the Texans at five. Okay. So the Jaguars at five has to do with the fact that I think it seems like Lauren still has a pretty good shot to be back before the end of the regular season and for the playoffs. As long as he is, you know, you threw out 80%, that makes me a little nervous. But if he's, if he's 85, 90, even, I just, I feel better about Jacksonville, which still is a pretty good defense. I think they've figured a lot of things out offensively. I think they, before Trevor Lawrence got injured, they'd,

and getting better as the season went on, figuring out especially how to use those receivers to their advantage. I think that's a good team. And that's a team that I certainly trust over the Colts, the Steelers, the Browns, who are some of the teams that we would start talking about in this category.

The Browns I put at six, and if we're putting the bills, in, that means essentially that I'm seating the Browns over the Colts and the Steelers. And really what that came down to is that I can tell you the Browns have an elite defense. The Browns do something really, really, really well. Now, the Steelers have a good defense too, but I think the Browns is better. and I also think that

it's not that Joe Flacco was like great on Sunday. But I would rather have Joe Flacko who on the right, who it looks like on the right day is just going to air it out and hope than like Kenny Pickett

Mitch Trubisky throwing you know, behind the line of scrimmage every other throw. This is a stat that I just, I actually was like five minutes late to this podcast recording because I needed to find this one tweet by Jake Trotter, who covers the Browns for ESPN, just because I think it's amazing. And so according to next gen stats, Joe Flacco attempted 19 passes over 10 air yards on Sunday, which was the most in a game by a Browns quarterback.

And I want you to guess, how long? Oh my God. Ten years. Okay, not ten years, but five years. I thought it would be ridiculous, but that is ridiculous. Five years. First game out. First game out comes off of the couch and just is like chucking it.

And there is certainly a world in which that becomes, if Joe Flacko does that every Sunday and tried to do that in the playoffs, that becomes like a five interception game. But it's at least entertaining. And I think, like, I don't care about which teams could lose respectably.

Like, I think the Steelers could kind of, could keep it close and make it weird and make it, you know... I don't want to watch that, though. But I don't want to watch it. Yeah, exactly. I don't care. Get it out of there.

I want Joe Flackett. Blacko to just like pray for DPI on every throw and just make it messy and ridiculous. And then rely on the fact that if a few of those connect, Cleveland has a legitimately very good defense, Jim Schwartz can come up with a good plan, experienced coordinator. There's a world in which they win a game against a team that is objectively much better than them. Because they're just going to embrace chaos more than I think some of these other teams. So that was why probably the more legitimate argument for the Browns being in over like the Colts or the Steelers to me is just that they have one truly elite unit. But there was a little bit of it too where I just like, it's not that I trust Flacco.

It's just that he could do it. There's a world in which when you're at the skinny end of the skinny tail on the bell curve, he does something. something great. I was so exasperated, not because I disagreed with you. It's because I agreed with you and I realized how depressing it is that, like, Joe Flacco is their best option going forward. I chose not to have the Brown. It's, like, very obvious that the Browns quarterback situation is probably a conversation

for another time. But, like, yeah. And for me, that time is not the postseason. Do not let the Browns anywhere near the playoffs. Don't let the Steelers anywhere near my, playoffs. See, I'm, you're like the, who the playoff committee likes to think they are, like how they present themselves. I'm like the person who they actually are. The fans think they are. Like, I only want to see good games and I only want to see good television. So my wild cards are

the Jaguars. I'm going to flip them. So I'm going to have the Texans fourth. I'm going to go with you. I'm going to put the Texans forth. I'm going to put the bills. I'll put the Bill 6th. I'm putting the Jaguars fifth because of the Trevor injury. If he wasn't hurt, they would be for it, the bills would be fifth, the Texans would be six. And then my seventh seed, I don't know if I have a viable argument for this one, but I don't care. I'm putting the Chargers. It's the Chargers. You want a weird game. I'll give you a weird game. The Chargers are going to

give you the weirdest fucking game you've ever seen in your life. Let me, I'll make, I have a case. I have an actual case for this, okay? Okay, make it. First of all, one of the hardest schedules in the league. one of the hardest schedules in the league and they only have lost games by three points. Okay, they lost to the Ravens by 10 points but that game was basically a one possession game.

But outside of that, they've only lost the teams by three points and they're playing some of the best teams in the NFL. They lost the dolphins by two points on a last second field goal. They lost the Cowboys, the team that we think could win the Super Bowl on the last second field goal at the end of a game, or not a last second field goal, but a go-ahead score. They lost to the cheese by 14 points, but I think that game was more competitive than people.

thought it would be, they lost to the Lions, another up-and-coming team by three points. They lost to the Packers, a team that we can't stop talking about by three points because Quinn Johnson dropped. They're playing well, like in a vacuum. Ignore the record. They're a good football team. And they play well against other good football teams.

I'd rather see Justin Herbert go up against Lamar Jackson, or not Lamar Jackson. I guess they would be playing the Chiefs. Justin Herbert versus Patrick Mahomes on Wild Card weekend and you're turning it down for Joe Flacco? Stop laughing. You're turning down because Joe Flacco might throw a DPR I, like you might throw it up?

No, get out of here. I live in the real world, Stephen. I'm not saying that it's what I... There's a compelling case that this would be fun. The Chargers are five and seven. These other teams are seven and five. It's one game. It's literally one result.

You flip one result and they have the same record. First of all, it's two games. Yeah, but that's how wins and losses work. If you win, if you lose a game, you can't win it. So if I take a win away from the browns, that means they have a loss. It's one, it's one head-to-head game. Oh, yeah. That's a good point. I don't know how outstanding. So I don't know how standings work. But I mean, this is, you are on, you have never been more wins are not a team

stat than in this podcast doing this exercise. The Chargers have the same record as the Raiders. We can't like, you started. The bills are one game ahead of them. The pills are one game ahead of them. You started making the case by saying the Chargers only lose games by three points and then mentioned like three games that they lost by more than three. Hey.

The college football playoff does not have to run out. I know they played a closed game against Kansas City one time. The Chargers 25th ranked defense by EPA, I'm sorry. I don't want that anywhere near. What's the offense ranked? though. Like 13th or something?

They're 12. They're fine. That didn't go as well as I thought it would. But if you're making that argument, then let's revisit the bills then. Why aren't the Broncos in over the bills? The Broncos beat the bills. They have the same record.

And they're playing better footballs of late. Because the chargers are like on the precipice of getting their head coach fired. It's this, this charger season, it's like a quantity. defiable disaster. They're on the precipice of having their coach fired.

The Browns have been through four quarterbacks, and they're starting quarterback that you're touting right now is on the practice squad as we speak. Yeah, but those other quarterbacks that they've been through are bad. I don't know. I'm going with the chargers. DBOA, Browns 12,

Chargers 13. But chargers are better and weight at DVO, which puts more weight on the last couple games. for an agent of Canada. Who would win in a game? Who would win in a game if they played? The Chargers are the Browns?

Yeah, the Browns would probably win, but the Chargers would be the third. I wholeheartedly believe the Browns would win that game. But only because of Chargers wonkiness. Like, the Chargers would clearly be the better team. The Chargers have been wonky for, like, I mean, at least a decade. And what had the Browns been?

Chargering is baked into the pudding at this point. But Chargering is losing a close game. Brownsing is, I don't even know what it is. It's a lot of things, but none of it is entertaining. It's like giving Deshawn Watson $230 million guaranteed, or it's like going 0 and 16. I don't want to watch the Browns in the playoffs. Nobody wants it.

No one wants it. I know like it feels like the right thing to do, but it's the Florida State conversation with me. Did anyone really want to watch Alabama blow Florida State out? Would you have like during the game when it's 30 to 7 in the third quarter of you're like, you know what, this game sucks and I don't want to watch it, but I'm very happy that Florida State got rewarded for the season. The Chargers just scored.

Oh, so now that. Oh, so now you don't care about wins and losses. And what did the defense do? I cannot believe what you were doing right now. What did the defense do? If the Brown's elite defense is the reason they're in, zero points it seems pretty

you can't do better than that. Against Bailey Zappy, who is not allowed to throw more than like two yards down the field.

Let's not pretend like Bailey Zappy wouldn't have started like three games of the Browns already this season. Are you serious?

They wish they had Bailey Zappy. First of all, no, they do not. Yeah, that's true. Nobody does. DTR and PJ Walker

with their hands, Like on each other's shoulders in a trench coat with their hands tied behind their back is probably roughly equivalent to Bailey's appy right now. Yeah. And also, So where are we going to land? We've disagreed so much on the last part. I'm not letting the chargers may not be in the playoffs.

Do we need a tiebreaker? Do we need to bring in some producers? I think we might. Producer Stefan, please help us here. Here's what I will say. I will elevate, I will agree to

elevate the bills. If I leave out the Chargers. If we keep the Chargers out of the play. We got staff. Do you want to have that conversation?

Do you want to be, if Justin Herbert, if they're won and done in the playoffs, the Chargers squeak in and then they lose a game where Justin Herbert actually plays very well,

but they lose the game because Brandon Staley mismanages it, or there's a critical drop, or whatever happens. Do you want to have that conversation again? Is this what you want? Is this what you're trying to make happen?

I don't want it, but it's a fate I've accepted. And I'm not weak-minded. I'm not going to just change my take based on the results that have nothing to do with Justin Herbert. So I'm fine with having that conversation. I'll have it again. I'll get on a pot after Brock Purdy throws four touch rounds and tell you he's mid.

You think I'm going to have any issue doing that? What about this? What if we keep the chargers out of the playoffs? But then we just have, we have Brock Purdy and Justin Herbert do the, do like the skills competition and just do a bunch of like one-on-one throwing. And that'll be really satisfying for you personally.

No. So you don't understand what these people do, these anti-Herbert people, they'll just be like, see, I told you, he's all physical and gifts, and it's about what's going on in between the ears. That's all they'll do. So, no, I turn down that offer. I'm not moving off of it. Let's bring in step. He's going to happen to decide. With love, Stephen, you sound like you're in a cult,

documentary. Hey, the cult documentary is much easier to watch than the Joe Flacco playoff game. That's all I'll say. Steph, who do you think should make the playoffs? I'm not going to lie. I kind of, for content purposes, we got to get the charges in. But if I had a pick, I would put the Broncos in. I kind of want to see how crazy is it. I want to see how crazy this gets with the Broncos. Listen, I'm willing to see how craziness gets. That's just my opinion. I regret this. I regret being Stefan immediately. Immediately. First of all, I can't believe you're doing Joe Flacco dirty like that,

producers, Stefan. I mean, for all he's done for the Jets franchise, I think you should be kinder. All right. I'll give in. I think we're doing it. Let's, let's give in. Let's put the, let's, let's put the Broncos in the playoffs.

All right. That works for me. Neither of us are right. Neither of us get our wish. No one's right. No Flacco, no Herbert. Because Steph wants to see Russell Wilson take five sacks on third down. Here's the thing, though.

Here's the benefit of this. In a season that has, I don't know if it's taught us anything because of this, but it has certainly shown what happens when quarterback durability, quarterback injuries just completely destroy the entire landscape of what we thought was going to happen. Something to be said for Mr. Unlimited who never gets hurt no matter how many dumb sacks he takes and how many ill-advised attempts to run around back there. I mean

there are worse things to be said about Russell Wilson than his durability certainly. So for producer Stefan, we are going to make the Denver Broncos the seven seat. So what

that what that leaves us with is Ravens, Chiefs, dolphins, Texans is the four seed, Jags is the five seed, Bills is the sixth seed, Broncos is the seventh seed, and probably some sort of ensuing congressional investigation

for us having allowed an outside party to influence and meddle in the seating to that degree. So, I'll see you at Congress. Mike, I feel like we'll have to bring charges against

staff for exploiting Russell Wilson and exposing him to Mike McDonald's defense. That is just not fair. That's going to end horribly. I don't want to watch that. Oh, it's really good. I kind of do. I'm kind of excited about it. I mean, who knows?

They wouldn't even play. They would be playing the cheat. Oh, my God, Spagnolo versus Russ. I guess we've already seen that. I guess we've seen it. But somehow I think the rematch might be slightly different. All right. This has been fun.

Any final thoughts, David? Anything we missed about the seating, the selection committee? Did you feel like a wash with power? I did. It felt very good to be able to put the charges in the playoffs. Because you went absolutely rogue with some of the selections. You can add this to the Justin Herbert in hypothetical situation memes. In this hypothetical situation, he's in the playoffs.

He's in the hypothetical playoffs. I love it. All right, this has been dual threat on the ringer NFL show feed. I'm Norr Pinsiaznii. He is Stephen Ruiz. Thank you to Stavada Anderson for producing this episode. Thank you to Kiara Givens for her work on socials. Thank you to Arjuna Rangipal and Konaghan's for their additional production supervision. Fed and Sheel will be up next with extra point taken. And Stephen and I will be back on Sunday. Thanks for listening. Must be 21 plus and present in select states. Fandul is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino, LLC. Gambling problem. Call one 800 gambler or visit fanduel.org slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee, and Virginia. Call 1-800 next step or text next step to 533342 in Arizona, 1-88-88-88-88-8-9-777, or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. Call 1-800-9 with it in Indiana, 1-800-522-4-7-00 or visit KSgamblinghelp.com in Kansas, 1-877-7-70 stop in Louisiana.

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