The Ringer NFL Show - AFC Power Rankings: How Many Teams Are Better Than the Chiefs?

Episode Date: October 14, 2021

Nora and Mal rank the top five teams in the AFC and tell you why other AFC contenders are better than the Chiefs. Hosts: Nora Princiotti and Mallory Rubin Production Assistant: Isaiah Blakely Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What's up everybody? I'm JJ John Gstromski. And I'm Jason Gough, and if you haven't heard, the ringer has gone local. I'm bringing the fire. I'm bringing the rain from the Big Apple with my show, New York, New York. And I'm reping Shy Town with my new show The Full Go on All Things Chicago. We've got episodes three nights a week with all the reaction to the local teams and guests. Plus bonus episodes around all the big games and storylines.

So whether you're uptown, downtown, downtown, in the burbs, or a transplant. Make sure you follow New York, New York, and the full go on Spotify or wherever you get your podcast. Hello and welcome to the Ringer NFL show. Hi, as always on Thursdays, I'm Nora Pinciotti here with Mallory Rubin. Mallory, how are you doing today? Hello. Great to be here with you today, always. This Thursday, every Thursday.

We just had a little conversation about, with our wonderful producer, Isaiah Blakely, about how Batman kind of sucks and he just has a lot of money and gangs up on people. We're really just getting you. into the superhero talk week after week. And by the time the NFL playoffs roll around, will not only be talking about the NFL playoffs, you'll be coming off a four-hour Spider-Man, No Way Home Breakdown Pod, you know?

We'll find out if I will indeed be coming off of that, Mallory, but I believe wholeheartedly that you will be, and I will support you in that. Speaking of superheroes and superpowers, We're going to talk today about the AFC and particularly the context of the AFC around one team, the Kansas City Chiefs, who I think a lot of us looked out at the beginning of this season and felt like they're Superman. They're unstoppable. Superman's unstoppable, right? That's his whole shtick.

Well, carve out some time for me later and we'll talk about kryptonite. Okay. Okay. Okay. All right. Well, we're going to talk about kryptonite because we're going to talk about Cryptonite because we're going to talk about. about which teams in the AFC right now are better than the Kansas City Chiefs. Who would get the top few spots in the AFC power rankings, whether or not that's Kansas

City, whether or not those are other teams. Spoiler alert, I think the Chiefs have, you know, fallen a little bit. They're sitting at two and three right now, which obviously is not something that anybody expected. Right. So I think what we're going to do is I'm going to go through my list, of the teams that I have ranked above them. I'm going to see where it matches up with yours, And then we're going to get in with each team into why they're better and why they've been able to exceed expectations, even for these teams whose expectations were pretty high coming into the season. Right. Because if we are putting them, you know, above the chiefs, I think that represents some sort of jump here. And then we're going to answer some mailback questions.

And it's going to be a lot of fun. I love it. I love it. If there's time at the end, we can talk more about the. eternal for us at least. Rigatoni versus Pente debate. But we'll see where we are on our TRT. We've come out the other side. Maybe we'll get into Bucatini in Tilly this week.

Okay. Bucatini. Bucatini is the Bucatini. See, here's the problem. I want to call Bucatini the Kansas City Chiefs of Pasta. But as we have seen, it is not so easy to be the Bucatini of NFL. Yeah. That might mean you have four other pastas ranked above Bucatini right now. Never, never, never, never ever.

But without further ado, my number one team is the Buffalo Bills. How about you? Nora. Yeah. Same buddy. Bills at the top. Look at the synergy. All right.

All right. Then I've got the chargers. Me too. Ooh, okay. Look at this. Now, the moment of truth in the number three spot. The Baltimore Ravens. I have a different team in number three.

I have my beloved Baltimore Ravens. Thank you for that verification. Yeah, you're welcome. I just thought that was important to, you know, state for the record. Yeah. So I think not to give too many spoilers, I think we may have, I at least have some conversation about, the number one and two spots,

but I think the hardest choices for me were how to round this out. Because I have the Browns at number four and then the chiefs at five. And I flip-flopped those two about 10 times as I was trying to settle this down. Where are you on Brown's chiefs if those are indeed the remaining two teams

in your top five? Nora, today we find ourselves in perfect harmony. because, oh, wow, I also have Cleveland, KC at 4 or 5, and I had a really hard time landing on the order here. I went back and forth on this a lot. I started off with KC at 4, Cleveland at 5, and then the more I looked into it, the more I wanted to change my mind, and I'm eager to discuss it with you, and maybe we can come to shared clarity at the end of today's episode at what we actually think the current 4 or 5 pecking orders. I think clearly we agree on

the top three, and clearly we agree on the top five. Maybe the exact order inside of that varies a little bit, but one of the reasons that I was really excited that we were talking about this today and why this feels like the right week to do this. Like on the one hand, you could say, okay, we're between weeks five and six. You know, we're only a handful of weeks away

from opening the season with the, can anybody beat the chief's narrative and conversation, right? That's not that long ago. And it's not impossible in any way to envision that we could return to that moment at some point, except that, as we will discuss as we go today, the problems that have surfaced for Kansas City so far are not ones that feel isolated

or the result of certain matchups. They feel like they are potentially season long and season-defining questions and concerns, particularly on defense as we'll discuss more as we go. But we have this interesting moment here with the head-to-heads. of the teams in question. The top three teams on our shared top five here

happened to be the three teams that have beaten Kansas City head to head, right? And that's not a coincidence. The teams in the four or five mix have also played, and that was a close game. And I think one of the things I'm interested to hear your take on when we get to the Browns later is whether you anticipate a different result

if that matchup took place in week six instead of week one, right? It's not just the overall records, though, of course that is part of a set. team standing. It's the head-to-head showing. And it doesn't mean that it couldn't go a different way, of course, if they played again or crucially that it couldn't go a different way if they played in the postseason. But right now, the pecking order feels clearer than it often does at this point in the season because we've had these faceoffs. And we happen right now to be in this bookend moment where we got Chiefs Bills and Brown's Chargers last week. And we're heading into Chargers

Ravens this week. So this is really an interesting moment to assess all of this, I think. Yeah. And I want to talk about Kansas City for a second. And then we can we can go through the other teams and kind of compare contrast. But this is our baseline. Yeah. There is this just sort of vestigial sense of, come on, this can't be real. Right. Like it's the chiefs, which I think is in some ways legitimate because as you just said, we're going to end week six. There's still a lot of time. I think one of the things that's most concerning for them is just given where they are in the division and given how well the chargers have played, there is that sort of like playoff math problem. But just in terms of pure ability on the field, this is still a team with one of the best,

if not the best offenses in the league, offense typically, you know, if you're going to be really good on offense and really bad on defense or the other way around, you'd rather be what the chiefs are, right? which is really good on offense and really bad on defense. But I found the football outsiders DVOA rankings and the write-up that comes with that for this week, really, really, really fascinating. Yeah. Because they went and looked at similar teams historically that have just been like really, really, really great on offense, but really, really, really bad on defense and how they ended up faring.

And that was one of the things that I felt like kind of gave me permission and convinced me that, like, okay, yeah, this is a really, really, really big problem. Because there's only one team they found historically that had offensive DVOA and defensive DVOA over 25%. And if you don't look at DVOA all the time, positive numbers are good for offense, bad for defense. So being over 25% in both categories means you have a really good offense and a really bad defense. That team that they found was the 2013 Chargers, who, like the Chiefs, also started two and three. And they wound up finishing nine and seven,

and they made the playoffs, they beat the Bengals in the Wildcard round, and then they lost to Peyton Manning and the Broncos in the divisional round. That's not the type of outcome that we expect from the Kansas City Chiefs. And it's a very, very, very small sample size, right? That in and of itself, though, is sort of telling

because this just doesn't happen a lot. Like, complementary football is the thing that exists. Usually, if your offense is that good, you're scoring that much, you're keeping possession of the ball. Your defense is protected in a way. So there have just been some, like, we're still in that early season. It's only October place where there's a lot of time for them to write the ship, get better, carve a path that feels like, I mean, look, I do not want to be the division

winner that would end up playing the chiefs in the wild card round. Like, that is just drawing the short straw. That's a tough one. But I just, I want us to sort of work from a baseline here that is, this team is really in trouble. Like, the more that I looked into this, the more I felt like, okay, yeah, they are certainly more likely than not. I mean, just in terms of gut feeling, but also in terms of the probabilities and the simulations that various outlets run, more likely than not to be a playoff team. But in terms of that sort of automatic Super Bowl birth thing that that we've come to, expect really, really, really not the terrain that we're operating in.

Right. Yeah. I think that where we are in the season point is a good one because, like, again, recency bias, primacy bias. Like, it's so early still that there's all of this runway I had to change it. But part of what we're assessing is not only the performance so far, the stats, what we're actually seeing on the field and what the numbers are telling us, but what our expectations sold us, as you noted, right?

And that is just, that is part of this. Like, Mahomes had never lost in September entering the season. And so this is just a completely different equation than what we are used to seeing from Kansas City. And also what Kansas City under Mahomes is used to experiencing. And I think that's part of what's interesting too, right, is how the team will ultimately respond and be able to adjust, whether it's through perhaps a trade deadline act. or two to attempt to bolster the defense or any other type of schematic change. But like if you look at what the biggest question marks and concerns are, obviously the defense

is far and away number one on the list. But you can point to the turnovers as well as something that is really uncharacteristic for Kansas City to this point in the season. You know, Mahomes has six turnovers in the past three games. he has six interceptions on the year so far, which is the total that he had last season. And the reason I mention that is not because Patrick Mahomes turning the ball over is actually something that I'm worried about long term. It's not.

But because of the way that it has seeped in already to the conversation around the team and the conversation that the team is needing to directly engage in, you know, this week, there's an ESPN piece from Adam Tyshire about Mahomes addressing the question of whether the defense's play is responsible for the turnovers. And of course, Mojams is saying, you know, that is that is not the case. He's not putting any of the blame on the defensive unit. But this is just not something that we are accustomed to having to even discuss with the chiefs. And then if you look at the defense itself, I mean, 163 points allow.

That's worse than the, worse than the NFL, you know, the 32nd ranked defense. The overall defensive grade right now in PFF, 46.2, the run defense grade, 32.4. I mean, that is, that is abhorrent. That is concerning. Terrible. Here's a little nugget from Friend of the Ringer NFL show pod feed, Sam Monson, PFF.

This is, uh, this is from a tweet of Sam's this week. Kansas City defense allowing a touchdown on 41.7% of its drives this season. It's astounding, right? I mean, that's not. Not great, Bob. He noted that no other defenses is above 33.3% in that metric. That's not a gap. That's a chasm.

That's the type of thing that becomes season defining at a certain point. And so to your larger point here and the purpose of assessing this today on the pod, that doesn't feel actually like an overreaction five weeks in. That feels like the kind of thing that has shifted formally from reservation into this isn't to be the Kansas City team that we thought it was. So are they going to be able to get back to the level to ultimately knock out the teams that have already proven superior to this point in the season? They still have Mahomes though.

Yep. Eighth worst defense ever tracked by DVOA through five games, but they've still got Mahomes. So we got to talk a little bit about how these other contenders have proven themselves capable of beaten the chiefs because there's still always going to be that sense, right? like if they meet up in the playoffs, they have to go head to head. Yep.

You don't view that as a soft and squishy friendly matchup. There's just no way. It doesn't matter. So let's start with the bills. And I'm going to offer you a fairly simple explanation for why they have improved to be not just better than the Chiefs, but for my money, the best team in the NFC, which is balance.

And I think we. We can talk about that as balance offensively. We can also talk about it as, okay, very good offense, very good defense, right? Like, they're the thing that the chiefs are not, which is capable of winning games in multiple ways. They don't have to win a 42 to 40 shootout every single time. But I'm going to get into it a little bit more by saying that the thing that I think has contributed the most to the bill's balance is that if you looked at where they struggled last season, they were a great team last season. But if you looked at places where they weren't particularly productive, the two were the running game and pass rush outside of Jerry Hughes. It was just sort of like the Jerry Hughes show.

And if he wasn't getting pressure on a regular basis, the bills weren't either. They went out and drafted Greg Rousseau and Carlos Basham. Both of those guys have been really, really productive. So far, Rousseau has three sacks, was particularly rookie of the week aggressive against the chiefs. Yeah. and then Basham has a second half. So that's great. The other thing that they've done is this run game is like they don't prioritize the run.

They don't put a lot of resources into it in terms of roster building. They don't call it very much. All that's fine and good. But it still helps if you can keep teams off balance that way and win in multiple ways. And what I've loved about what they've done this season is they've gotten Josh Allen involved in the quarterback run game. we've seen tons and tons of highlights. We're really used to seeing Josh Allen scrambling around, right? Throwing on the run.

That's always been a part of his game. But for the most part in the past, those have not been designed runs. They've just been cuby scrambles. He senses pressure, rolls out, does something crazy. Very cool. But this season, they have had him go on 19 designed runs so far. The only quarterback who's done that more is Lamar Jackson. Right.

A quarterback who's done that the exact same amount of times is Jalen Hurts. this was not how Josh Allen was playing football in seasons past. This was not what they were asking him to do. And it's been really, really effective. And it's helped them just make their overall offense a little bit more balanced, a little bit more potent without taking away from any of the explosiveness, the great downfield passing, the aggressiveness that Josh Allen adds as a passer. So I think, you know, this is what good teams do to be great.

they're already advantaged because they don't have these big, horrible weaknesses, but they just address the little ones. And when you look at how that all comes together, I mean, they're the top ranked team in DVOA right now. But they're also the 36th team in history to have, I forget exactly the number that they've reached, but it's like there's 36 teams who have gotten off to this good of a start by DVOA. And the outcomes for those teams were really, really, really good.

Eight of them won the Super Bowl. Nine of them made the Super Bowl but lost it. 13 won their division but didn't make the Super Bowl. And then two won wildcard spots but didn't make the Super Bowl and then three missed the playoffs. So you put it all together and you have a team that's performing the way historically. One of them was the Chargers. I read it and I was like there's no way one of these teams wasn't the Chargers. And sure enough, it's like the 2005 Chargers for something.

Incredible. Can't catch a break. This is pre-Brandon's daily. But you put it all together and you have a team that, look, like you are what your record says. You are as a little bit of a cliche in some ways. But what good teams do is beat up on bad teams. And the bills have had an easy schedule, but they've absolutely trounced their competition.

And then you saw them do it against a much more formidable opponent in Kansas City. So when we move on to the Chargers, I want to. hear what you have to say about the bills. But when we move on to the Chargers, I did have like a little bit of, gosh, maybe the Chargers should be number one. I was, I was tempted a little bit. Okay. I'm really, I'm really eager to hear why. Because I think, you know, for, I think for me, the bills are clearly number one right now. And, you know, forecasting the rest of the season. Could we see a Chargers Cardinals Super Bowl? Sure. Yeah. That was. wouldn't shock me. That would be incredibly fun and exciting. Right now, I think we're heading

toward, you know, Bill's bucks, Bill's Cowboys, maybe. And the bills seem like clearly the top team in the AFC for exactly the reason that you outlined that balance. I mean, that's, that's my feeling on it as well. You know, you mentioned first in DVOA, top scoring offense, top scoring defense, not to be too reductive about it, but pretty good combo. You love to see it as the kids say, you know? And Josh Allen is playing well. You know, he's continued to develop as a passer, continue to develop as a more consistent and accurate passer.

But he has not been the best quarterback in football. And I say that not as a critique, but as a credit, as a credit to the bills. Right. You know, he and Diggs are, of course, remain one of the true times. top tier like must see connections in the NFL. Alan's really vibing with Dawson Knox and finding a great flow and like trust in that connection. Alan's got 16 big time throws already.

He needs to still improve the turnover worthy plays. He's not actually turning the ball over a lot, which is, which is like a subtle but important distinction. You know, he's got two picks, three fumbles. But his turnover worthy play count sits at nine. and his percentage is at 4.2%. That's like, the company that that puts him in is Zach Wilson and Ben Rothlisberger, right?

Yeah, he wants to do it so badly. He just like is dying to throw a pick. I know. So that's always, of course, something to watch. But that said, like, even if we break down the turnover so far and the turnover-worthy play so far, you know, two of those three fumbles came in a week one game against the Steelers

that we talked about at length in our initial panic meter podcast. And basically, I think our consensus was we can throw that one out. You know, like that was not going to be a replicable game plan for other defenses and other teams. And it hasn't been. And if you look at this most recent game, not only the quality of the competition, as you noted, but, you know, despite the low completion percentage from Allen in the KC game, his strongest overall passing game of the season. And I think that the point you made is the key one. because of the balance,

when Josh Allen plays like one of the best quarterbacks in the league, it's amazing to watch and the bills feel like they're going to win the title this year, right? Or at least seriously contend for it. But they are built to survive a week where he doesn't play that way. And that's the true measure

of a championship caliber roster. And the defense is the best in football and a huge reason why, in addition to the balance within the offense that you cited, you know, the top graded D, first in defensive DVOA, leading the league with 12.8 points per game allowed.

Like, teams are not able to score on the bills right now and the bills are able to score on them. Again, like you boil it down to the essence. That's a winning formula. Leading the league in takeaways also. Pretty good way to win football games. It is a pretty good way to play to football games. It's 15 takeaways, right?

So the forcing turnovers. Real credit here to the coaching staff, the draft picks, as you cited, to Leslie Frazier. And that year over year improvement, I think when you just zero in on the matchup against Kansas City, it's so telling. You know, playing largely in cover two and seeing that leap. It's such an encouraging sign. Here's a little string of nuggets that Doug Farr had in his USA Today piece this week that I thought was really telling.

I'll just read this quote here. Quote, his yards per attempt average of 5.04 was the lowest of his career. This is Mahomes versus Buffalo defense last week. His 70.9 pass rating was the second lowest of his career. Behind the 62.8 he put up in 2018 against the Jaguars defense worlds better than it is now. And his adjusted yards per pass attempt of 4.11 was also the lowest he's ever posted for a single game in his NFL career, end quote. So you look back just as recently as last year, Mahomes was able to play like Patrick Mahomes against the bills. And this year, he was delivering one of the worst games of his career.

So again, I think we're on the same page here that Patrick Mahomes is still Patrick Mahomes and at the end of the day, you'd rather have Patrick Mahomes than almost anybody else in football, probably then anybody else in football. But the fact that Buffalo was able to contain him with that defense and then, of course, with ease,

run through the Chief's defense, what have we seen so far this season, at least that makes us think the game wouldn't play out in similar fashion in January? Yeah, not a lot. It's been a big year for men named Leslie. Bill's Ted Lassow. I love Leslie on Ted Lazo so much.

I know me too. Every time someone opens a new door or a window and there he is and it's like, did you get kicked out of your office again? It's such a good bit. Really enjoy it. Oh, Leslie. What a jam. All right, let me hear why you think the Chargers have a case for number one because I'm fascinated by this.

Yeah, well, so when I sort of went to put down my, my why they're better bit, what I, what was coming to mind was that they are similarly balanced to Buffalo, but they're actually getting better quarterback play. And then I thought about that and I went, kind of sounds like I'm saying they've got a little more going on. And the thing that ultimately sort of couched that for me was just the results haven't been the same, right? They haven't, I mean, they've had much better competition overall, but, which is obviously part of it. Um, but they haven't just totally blown through teams the way that,

that the bills have. And they're also, they're less experienced, right? Like Herbert's just younger, a little bit less battle tested. Although, again, I think running through that gauntlet of a division on a regular basis, there's got to be something to be said for that in terms of kind of what you've been through and how ready you are for everybody's best punch. And quality wins already in the in the 401 record. I mean, obviously the head to head against Kansas City, but also Vegas and Cleveland. Like Washington as well. I mean, those four, four quality wins and three pretty strong wins, two really good wins.

Yeah. Yeah. So it was, this was very close to me, even though a lot of the advanced metrics would say, like, you can't control who's on your schedule and what good teams do is. is just absolutely beat up on bad teams, which for the most part, you know, that's, that's a lot of what the bills have done early.

But Herbert, man, like he's third in EPA. He's PFF's eighth graded quarterback. He's so great on late downs. He's still just crushed it on, on third down and they go for fourth all the time. He's always going to be great in terms of EPA, as long as he's playing well,

just because that values late downs really heavily. He's not, if you sort of look at him head to head with Allen, he's not throwing as deep as Josh Allen. So some of the completion percentage stuff has to factor that in. But, okay, he's completing 67% of his passes. Josh is at 62.

Herbert's plus 1.7% completion percentage above expectation. That's a next gen stat metric. Josh is slightly in the negative on that. Minus. 0.5. I think that's pretty skewed by the first. game. Again, also, you know, he has rejuvenated Emmanuel Sanders into this like crazy downfield threat, right? Like, he's throwing it really far. He's attempting greater degree of

difficulty passes on a regular basis. Whereas Herbert, while, you know, not a dink and dunk guy by any means, he's still been relatively a little bit more conservative than Allen. So it's, you know, not, not all completions are created equal. Still, Herbert's been slightly more, more just steady and consistent in terms of that. And then I think you just look at them as this sort of prototypical modern team. They're really, really, really built well to match up against the best teams in football right now. We had our conversation on the Sunday ringer NFL show after they beat the chiefs about how there's really no one better in football than Derwin James to match up against Travis Kelsey. Right.

And one thing that the Chargers and the Bills have in common is these defenses that are built first and foremost to limit big plays. The bill is actually, I think the first, ooh, first pass, first play of over 20 yards that they'd given up was against the Chiefs, but they only gave up one. They've given up one explosive play on the entire season. Unbelievable. That's, so that's not, that's not an edge that you give to the Chargers here, but it is something that. they are built to do. You know, as Staley talks about, like, you build a roof and you keep everybody underneath it, right?

Ben Sallak was talking about that on our Sunday show as well. And so for these, I think it's interesting that for these teams at the top of the AFC, we're just noticing these modern tendencies, right? You limit the big play on defense. You go for a lot of fourth downs, aggressive offense, and great quarterback play. That's the formula. And they both have it. I ultimately gave the edge to the bills, but I think it's closer than maybe. I don't want to put words in your mouth.

But I think you could argue that there's a greater chasm between one and two than I really think there is here. You know, well, again, the Chargers have a big one. Big one coming up this week against my Baltimore Ravens. And I'm really, I'm interested to see how that game. goes, I'm glad that you mentioned Derwin James because obviously we and everyone else and football media is talking a lot about

Herbert and justifiably so. I'm not sure that there's a defender I enjoy watching more than Derwin James. And it's honestly been the case for me since the Florida State days. I remain absolutely baffled and confounded by his fall

in the draft. But right now the result is that we get to see him in a Brandon's daily defense. And it It is just so thrilling week after week. And I think only going to get more so as that defense continues to gel and mesh. You know, Herbert's playing like one of the absolute best passers in the league. He's got a PFF grade of 90 right now. 90.

That's his third best offensive grade among quarterbacks. He's only behind Brady and Wilson right now. He's been excellent when pressured. You mentioned the third down efficiency. I encourage everyone who, who hasn't yet listened to Wednesday's ringer gambling show with Sharp and Solac to listen to their Chargers Ravens preview because I thought the third down, first down discussion was fascinating. And one of those things that ultimately, if you choose to look at it a certain way is an area where a critique of a team can actually be one of the encouraging signs moving forward, right? Because if they make a slight adjustment and actually,

start to let Herbert loose on first down more often and port over, as Sharp and Solock we're outlining many of the third down tendencies into earlier downs, they could be even better and more explosive and more efficient than what we've seen so far. The connection that Herbert is building with Mike Williams, incredible to watch. I got to be honest. This is, maybe number one on my list of worries heading into the Ravens game. We're going to talk more about, I think, the Ravens defense and some of the tackling concerns when we get to the Ravens in a few minutes. But how the Ravens are going to stop Williams and Allen while also accounting for

Eckler is worrisome. Honestly, worrisome. I'm really curious to see what Herbert is able to do against that defense. And then just more broadly, you know, we talked about the Chargers last week as is, you know, one of our surprise teams of the season so far. And obviously, Herbert was a big part of that. But so was Staley. And this just feels like one of those potentially very special quarterback coach combos. Echler is staying healthy so far, making defenders miss in space.

Staley is, of course, a defensive guy. but just his overall approach, as we've discussed so far, has just been so impressive. You know, he's been very analytically inclined and sound in his decision making, bold and aggressive. And it's just all so encouraging so far. So let's move on to the Ravens. And what I will offer you as why they are better,

Lamar. Yeah. Not just Lamar being Lamar, but Lamar downfield passer first in the NFL in average depth of target. I love it. 11 yards. Just a joy to witness. This is exceptional, Mallory Rubin.

Yeah, it's a delight. You know, the comeback against the Colts was one of the true thrills of my personal sports viewing experience. What a wonder that was. I loved it. I'm glad. Oh, I loved it, Nora. I did want to ask you if, you know, because one of the through lines of commentary about other teams has been the need to win dominantly against inferior teams. So is that something that gives you pause about what we've seen from the Ravens so far?

Because on the one hand, they're four and one, right? First place in the IFC North. The only loss is a week one overtime loss to Vegas. They have a win against Kansas City head to head. That's all encouraging. but the Detroit game and the indie game required historic late game outcomes. You know, the Justin Tucker kick against Detroit and the Lamar comeback against the Colts. Now, I, of course, I'm looking at that as this is a team that is perhaps in the midst of a special season,

where magic is unfolding before our eyes and they're never out of it. Damn it, never. But I'm wondering if you, as someone who is a little further removed from the situation, looks at that and says they're not winning dominantly against the teams they should be. Or if that's not a concern so far. Well, so the reason that they're, I, the Ravens I have some trust issues with in some ways. Because there is a fairly solid argument that Lamar, for instance, is playing better than Justin Herbert, who I just said was playing better than Josh Allen. The problem is one of the reasons that they haven't been winning dominantly is because they are making mistakes in high leverage situations that have a disproportionately large impact on outcomes. And what I mean by this is that the Baltimore Ravens play as if they are one of the best teams in football.

However, there are invisible lasers at various points on the field. there is absolutely one at the goal line and the others are placed strategically to occasionally hit their receivers in the hands. Yeah. This is a, this is a rude take.

Lamar is playing so well. He is so well. He's fifth in PFF passing grade, eighth in EPA per play, seventh in completion percentage above expectation. And again, that is happening while they are pushing the ball

aggressively downfield, which tends to have a bad an adverse impact on those efficiency metrics, right? And so we've seen they got hit by all those injuries. This is a tough team, right? They've had, Lamar's had three game-winning drives, and they've dealt with all the injuries that they had early, and it hasn't seemed to, you know, knock their confidence.

And it's actually forced them, I think, to change for the better because they have embraced that early down passing aggressiveness that Ben and we're talking about and they're taking those downfield shots. I think it's all really impressive. It's just, yes, they do have this thing where it's like you fumble at the goal line or you drop a pass that just really shouldn't be dropped. You tape those things away. We would be looking at this team as an absolute juggernaut.

I don't quite know what that says, right? Because it's like, well, if you would just cut it out. Right. Yeah. But I don't know if that's necessarily going to happen perfectly. But I certainly don't think that it's, you know, it's a. much bigger deal that Lamar is playing like this than that he's had a fumble, that he's, that, you know, there have been some drops. Yeah, it's of a piece, I guess, with our,

our discussion from a few minutes ago, obviously the specific thing we're highlighting is, is different, but it's of a piece in the sense that the knock can ultimately be a boon if it's fixed, you know, so even if we look at the drops for a second, obviously that's, that's something that was plaguing both, you know, Hollywood and Mark Andrews. different points. But Mark Andrews and Hollywood Brown have both woken up. I mean, they were incredible against Indy. They are in sync with Lamar. And I think that's part of what overall is so encouraging to me. You know, if we look back at the discussion that we had about the Ravens coming out of week one in our panic meter episode, we weren't panicking in part because so many of the things that

we were identifying. Obviously, health, you know, was a huge one. And remains so at, at, on the offensive line, crucially. But I think we kept returning to the idea that they needed time to find their flow. They needed time to get into rhythm together with this group of players. Now, has the running game been the running game that we expect to see from the Ravens? It has not been, right? It has not been. But Lamar is humming.

I mean, he's playing like an MVP again. He, I'm of course not surprised by that. but I am delighted by it. You know, the passing game hitting that stride without Bateman is one of the things that I actually find most encouraging because Rashad Payman is about to come back. You know, their first round draft pick, an elite receiving talent who can, I think, unlock so much more

for this offense and this passing game in terms of not only, not leveling up, but consistently achieving at that level, right? he could be back as soon as this coming week against the Chargers, hopefully. And if not then, then very, very shortly thereafter coming off the groin injury. So when you look at that average depth of target stat that you cited, you know, already 11 yards, tops among starters, Lamar's got 13 big time throws already tied for fifth best in the league. Bateman can just add another layer that continues to enhance what we're already seeing.

Now, the Chargers have a better past defense than many of the ones the Ravens have face so far. You know, the lions, the Colts, the chiefs are among the worst past defenses in the league. So this is a good early test. My two big concerns for the Ravens, because I am, again, as high as I could possibly be, I think, on Lamar. The continued questions about just health on the line in particular and the lack of consistency in the run game. But the defensive tackling, you know, I'm starting to get worried about this. I am. And they've got the second worst grade on PFF for tackling right now, 42.5. And you just, you honestly see it every game if you're watching. You see it every game outside of Marlon Humphrey, who I adore, as you know,

the past defense and the ability to stop anyone other than the number one receiver who Humphrey is going to be going against, compounded by that like middle of the pack pressure ability that we're seeing from the defense so far. When these are the other teams that we're talking about and these are the offenses and the quarterbacks that we're talking about, of course, it has to be part of what we assess in terms of the ability to ultimately match up with them moving forward or beat them in the playoffs. You know, Solac noted on the gambling pod this week that their fourth in DVOA, this was

really like an eye-opening one. Fourth in DVOA against number one receivers. Again, that's Humphrey, right? 23rd against number two receivers. That's a drop off that is concerning and ultimately most concerning when you think about going against Herbert this week or in potential future matchups, Alan Mahomes, etc. So I'm feeling very good, but I think that this L.A. matchup this week will be actually be really telling in terms of where the team stands. There was a while. There were a few years. I think they're still doing it. I'm not sure. But I think they are. where the Ravens were doing joint practices every summer with Washington.

Tackling can't have been great. I don't know if they did that this off season. I think they did, though. Just can't have been great. Oy ve. I think we just went through the three teams where we were really confident that, you know, those are our top three. Right.

Now let's talk about the Browns because we both put them above Kansas City, but neither one of us felt great about it. Yeah. this is a tricky one. I'm really curious to hear your assessment. I think one of the things I kept going back and forth on was that like the week one game, which of course Kansas City won, but it was close. And the Browns were in control often throughout.

And even though I ultimately like looking ahead and forecasting the rest of the season and the playoffs, it was hard for me to shake like an almost core ingrained confidence in Kansas City over Cleveland. But then when I thought, if they, if they played again right now, who would I pick? I would pick Cleveland. I would too. I would too. And that was ultimately why, you know, okay, so they lose 33, 29. But that was ultimately why I had to put them at four.

Because so the weakness, if you compare them to Kansas City, is a quarterback, right? Like offense, sort of, but these are two very good offenses. You just don't have anywhere near the trust in Baker that you do with Mahomes. And he's been really up and down, fundamentally. I'm putting the Browns above them because I just think that everything that's around Baker is better to a good enough degree that it makes up for the rest of it. I mean, so the Browns are sixth in offensive DVOA, they're 12th in defensive DVOA, and fourth in special teams. I also think that the way that they're designed with that good offensive line, really powerful running game, and a secondary that has a, lot of guys who can, you know, turnovers are pretty random, but guys who can get their hands

on, on balls in the air, um, in a year where the chiefs are 31st overall and turnover differential. I really, really like that matchup in particular. When it comes down just to Baker, who's been really up and down, obviously you don't have the trust that you have in Mojoms. I do think he can get a little bit better, uh, particularly because he's been a top 10 quarterback from a clean pocket. But when he's been pressured, he's really, really struggled. Ultimately, clean pocket passing is more stable than under pressure passing. So you would expect that to stay consistent, whereas he could get a little bit better when under

pressure. Another quarterback who actually is in a similar situation so far this season is Aaron Rogers. So, you know, that's not bad company. But yeah, I mean, this is not, I'm not here to make the argument that the quarterback comparison is, is anything other than what we know it is. But I just think that the Browns, they're a good matchup for Kansas City particularly. And then overall,

they just have a lot of different things working for them. So I think, yeah, I would pick them in a rematch right now. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, it's obviously, to be abundantly clear, not at the level, of course, of what we're seeing from the bills. But they are also boasting that balance, you know?

I mean, they're PFF's top overall graded team right now. 88.6, top three offense, top three defense, top five special teams. So that balance across units, as you noted, I think does feel sustainable. And then if you look at the defensive dominance and like how well Miles Garrett is playing, you know, leading the league and sacks grading out as a top 10 overall defender, what you're citing about Baker in the past game and, you know, performance under pressure, I mean, of course, if you forecast ahead to a potential playoff game against Buffalo, say, well, that's like troubling, right?

And hard to imagine that shaking out well for Cleveland. But I think in terms of what we've seen from Cleveland so far in terms of just getting there, potentially getting to a game like that, I really do believe that they can. I mean, the pass blocking has not been outstanding, but the run blocking has been superior and really encouraging. And again, that part feels sustainable, like not necessarily in line with how we would talk about the way modern offense should look in the NFL. But in terms of how the Browns are structured and built right now, if Chubb can stay healthy and can be there the whole way and they can chew clock, like the version of football that they're playing right now, is going to keep working for them.

I really, like, it's, I will not be remotely surprised if the chiefs win the Super Bowl this year, still. Or if they're in the Super Bowl, none of us will. Like, it's Kansas City. It's Patrick Mahomes. It's Andy Reid. But right now, with everything we've seen so far, the concerns about Kansas City and the encouraging signs that we've seen from Cleveland, it really is, like, head to head with those two. It was the toughest one by far.

But I think I'm with you just that slight, slight edge right now while reserving the right to change my mind at any point. Slight edge right now for Cleveland. I'm going to blow your mind, Mel. Okay. If we're saying that the argument for the bills is they score way more points than anybody else and they give up way fewer, the argument for the Browns is they've got a lot of really good players.

There you go. Just a lot of really good football. ball players on that team. You'll love to see it. You really do. I've heard worse arguments. I'm compelled by that candidly. All right. Well, there you have it. We got bills, chargers, ravens, Browns, chiefs. We've worked it out. Those are our AFC top five. We will see how it plays out the rest of the season, of course, including in a couple of big matchups this weekend. And Mal, I'm really glad that we got to do this processing of our size together. I feel really good.

Me too. This was fun. You know, it's so early. And yet we've learned so much already and so much knowledge and insight awaits. We, just like these teams, you know, we're only five weeks in here, right? We have the whole season ahead of us to change our minds. Love a disclaimer. Love a disclaimer.

You know what else I love is a mail bag, Mel. Let's do it. All right. Our first question is from Jordan Miles. who asks, which team do you think is in the most dire need of a win this week? Mel? What an interesting week six preview question here. I'm going to go with the Indianapolis Colts.

They are one in four coming off the aforementioned heartbreaker, from their perspective, against the Ravens. They're playing the Texans. So this is a must win, a must win for a team that opened with, you know, not top tier, but like, yeah, present playoff aspirations and has been off to a slower start than expected in that respect. The Titans in the division have struggled too. So it's actually not too late. I mean, we could do a whole podcast, by the way, on Derek Henry and how exceptional he has been. But overall, the Titans have struggled compared to expectations. So it's not too late for the Colts to still try to maneuver their way up to the top of the division

pecking order, but there is no more time to waste. Like if the Colts win here, they're two and four. If the Titans lose this week, which I think is reasonable to expect against the bills in prime time, then they'll fall to three and three. So it's not ever yet for Indy, but this feels like the week to narrow the gap in a meaningful way before it feels like it's out of reach. So that's my pick. What about you?

I like that. I'm going to go with the Seahawks, who are without Russell Wilson. They're two and three. And so Gino Smith, Seattle Seahawks. The Gino Smith, Seattle, Zahawks who are playing the Ben Rothesburger, Pittsburgh, or Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday night football. I believe Al Michaels is missing this game, and I'm oddly envious of him. However, the Steelers depends on when Wilson's healthy, but they have three games before

they're by. They play the Packers out of the buy. that stretch is Steelers Saints, Jacks. And even with Gino in there, that feels like a stretch where they could go two and one. And they kind of have to because they're two and three. They've got to keep pace in the NFC.

And if they can get through, if they can take two out of those three games, I think they're going to be in, you know, decent enough position to do that. But they've got to keep themselves within striking distance during this period when they're without, us. That's a good one. I like that one. I'm weirdly so, so intrigued to watch Gino.

I can't wait. What a sentence. All right. Last question. Okay. John Nassif. Oh, Mal. This is, this is, this one's for you. Um, John asks, if AFC quarterbacks were Marvel characters, who would be who and why is Baker Hawkeye? I don't think we have time to compare all of the quarterbacks. So I'm just going to ask you the second part. Why is Baker Hawkeye if you agree with the premise? So funny. We definitely don't have time to do all of the all of the comp. So perhaps one day we will. You know, when you complete your, when you complete your, I was going to say MCU rewatch, but I think MCU initial watch and you're all current and you're, you know, you're, you're booting up Disney Plus to watch the Hawkeye premiere with me. This Thanksgiving.

getting hyped. This made me laugh. This question really made me laugh. I guess I would say for the, the, the wise Baker Hawkeye part, you know, poised for a big holiday season,

Hawkeyes come into Disney Plus, late November, before ultimately seating the spotlight to superior superheroes later in December, you know, making way for Spider-Man and in Baker's case,

the other quarterbacks who will be leading their team to a Super Bowl champion, Jace. I think that the overall vibe, you know, I sent you, the vibe check is what I wanted from you because I sent you the Hawkeye trailer and asked, does what you're seeing here from this trailer without any knowledge about who Clint Barton is or how we work some bow and arrow, does it give you Baker endorsement vibes? Yeah, so I'm totally out of my depth here. But Jeremy Renner is doing the same bit as Baker in the progressive commercials.

Like that whole time, that's just the same acting school, same method. I love it. You know, Hawkeye, just like a regular guy in the Avengers, surrounded by superpowered beings, but finds a way, finds a way still to be there among the Avengers. I really do think it fits. This is a great one from John. It's a pretty good com. All right.

On that note, this has been the ringer NFL show. I'm Nora Princeati. She's Mallory Rubin. Ben Solac, Stephen Ruiz, and Kaylin Jones will be coming up next on this feed, previewing the week six games this Friday. I'll be back Sunday night with Kevin Clark, Solac, and Ruiz to break down all the NFL action from week six. You can check out Mal on the ringer verse feed on Fridays with her new co-host, Joanna Robinson.

And we will be back next Thursday and every Thursday for the entire NFL season. Our thanks to production assistant Isaiah Blakely for production on this episode and to Arjuna Ramgapal for additional production supervision.