The Ringer NFL Show - Are People Too High on the Lions?

Episode Date: August 10, 2022

Sheil Kapadia and Steven Ruiz break down things that they think people are too high on heading into the 2022 NFL season. They discuss the Lions' ‘Hard Knocks’ hype, rookie wide receivers, Russell Wilson on the Broncos, and more. Hosts: Sheil Kapadia and Steven Ruiz Associate Producer: Carlos Chiriboga Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It's the NFL preseason. Check out the Ringer Fantasy Football Show on Spotify or wherever you get your podcast. Also, if you need fantasy rankings, we've got our rankings and sleepers at fantasy futtle.com. So come listen to Danny Hyfitts Craig Horlebeck and me, Danny Kelly, on the Ringer fantasy football show. Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. Shield Capadia here, joined by Stephen Ruiz.

Very simple exercise. Straightforward exercise today, Stephen, I think. We're going to pick out three things that each of us are lower on than the public. or the consensus. It could be the betting market. It could be what we think people think on Twitter. It could be what we read, what our colleagues here at the Ringer think. It could be a coach, a team, a player, an idea. And what I like is we've kept these secrets. So I don't know what you're thinking. You don't know what I'm thinking. How are you feeling about this? We're just going to come on here and I guess just hate on a bunch of stuff for about a half an hour. Yeah, this is my wheelhouse. Hating comes

naturally to me. But I hate myself for some of my picks. Like my first pick, I just feel like a bummer, just making this my pick, especially after a certain show started on Monday night. So that kind gives it away. But yeah, I hate myself for this one. Yeah, I felt the same way. I'm like, this is the time of year when everyone's hopeful, optimistic, excited. Everyone loves their team. And we're just going to come on here and dump some cold water on some of these things. So I feel like I've already, my big ones, I've already mentioned on previous pod. So I was like, I'm not going to repeat that I'm lower on Josh McDaniels than everybody, that I'm lower on the Packers, and that I'm lower on Tyreek Hill. So I just wanted to get that out of the way. If you're

wondering, Shiel, why aren't you going after these things? I've already mentioned those. You can listen to those on previous podcasts. But you know what? You just teased it. So I'm going to tee you up. Let's get to your first one here. What are you lower on than the consensus out there? I think I have a guess. Yeah, the Lions. The Lions, as a the whole. And I feel weird, like, coming into it being like, I have to throw cold water on the lion's hype, which is something that I've never had to do in my life because I've never, I've never dealt with lion's hype. But I think we've gone a little too far. And I hope I'm wrong about this because I love Dan Campbell, just like everyone else. I love this coaching staff.

And after watching the first episode of Hard Knocks, my love has only grown stronger for the, for the coaching staff. I hope they do well. But my first bullet point here is, is still the quarterback, and I have that in all caps. And if Jared golf wasn't good enough to get those post Super Bowl Rams to a spot where they were, where we could like, pin them in for 11 wins every year, I don't know how he's going to do it with this lion's roster around him. And that's my biggest concern is we know how important the quarterback position is. We know how important playing in a good environment is for Jared Gauff.

playing with a good game script that's favorable where he doesn't have, you don't have to put the whole game on him, but you don't have to call a lot of straight dropback concepts. He tends to struggle. That's my issue. I don't think this team is going to be in a position. I think they're going to be better than last year, but I don't think they're going to be good enough to put Jared Goff in the

environments that he needs to thrive as quarterback or even just play well as a quarterback. I'm with you, actually. I was watching hard docs. I'm going, wait, should I change one of my things for tomorrow to the Lions? and I'm like, God, that feels kind of mean. They're probably like so excited. You're the perfect person. I'm glad that you chose them.

I'm in the same boat. You know, it's like I feel like they're going to be a cute, fun team. But if we're talking about like eight wins, nine wins, like I cannot get there. I mean, sometimes, like you said, you just got to zoom out and say, what are the chances that this offense is going to be in the top half of the league? It kind of has to be right. Yeah. And it's not like, I mean, they're off season.

So last year, they're 3.13 and 1, and we're 29th in DVOA. Like, this was a bad for his all, for his, I mean, we had probably the most talked about three-win team in a while because we all had fun. Oh, my gosh, what is going on here? They were entertaining. I think if you're a Lions fan, you're probably like, hey, we have a low bar that's kind of all we're asking for is give us an entertaining, fun team we can root for. And I think they could be that.

But you just look at what they did in the office. Like, they didn't make major upgrades. I mean, DJ Shark, a nice addition at wide receiver. you're probably not going to have James and Williams early on there. Defensively, they didn't make a whole bunch of moves. I mean, you add Aiden Hutchinson,

but that was about it. They ran it back with a lot of these players on the roster, which I think is fine. I mean, it's a slow rebuild. It wasn't something you could fix in one year. I do think it's an interesting roster because they're kind of like, to me, a bit of a sleeper team when you look at next off season,

and I know Lions fans are going, dude, can we just enjoy this season? But when you look at next off season, like if there's one of those quarterbacks that pops free, there are some nice pieces. Like the offensive line is good. If you get James and Williams on there, who I love, then all of a sudden you're saying,

man, you could just kind of throw a quarterback in here, and it actually could end up being an offense that we're talking about this time next year, you're saying, wow, they're positioned to make a huge leap. Do you agree with that? Yeah, I do think that. That's why my first bullet point was Jared Kauf. I think if you replace him with like a good quarterback,

then all of a sudden, this offense looks a lot better on paper. And I do have concerns about some of the, of some of the coaching staff, like it's a coaching staff worth rooting for, but it is inexperienced. And like, offensive coordinator, Ben Johnson, first year as offensive coordinator, first year ever calling plays at any level. And he comes from the Adam Gase coaching tree, which I think should set off a lot of alarm bells for everyone. That's who we're relying on to get the most out of this collection of talent, which is intriguing

on paper. But as you kind of alluded to, we don't know what. this receiving core is going to look like because Jameson Williams is coming off the late season ACL tear. We don't know how he's going to recover from that. He is a rookie wide receiver with a limited offseason. That's not usually a recipe for a strong first season. DJ Chark has never played a full season of games. I do think he is a good player. I was kind of surprised the Jaguars let him go. But again, he's never played a full season of games. I'm on Ross St. Brown, who I think became kind of like a cult figure last year among draft

nerds and film watchers, I think he's a good player, but he was a high usage player on a bad team and someone has to catch those passes. And I think that kind of inflated his numbers a little bit last year. And I think people are a little too high on him. He still average 10 yards per reception, which isn't very good. So I have a lot of question marks about even the supposed strengths of this offense. And that's, we haven't even touched on the defense, which I think is bad on the back end. And I really think Aiden Hutchinson needs to have like a Nick Bosa type rookie season

in order to make this front seven good enough where it covers up to secondary issues. God, we're the only podcast just the day after Hard Knocks just coming on and ripping. I mean, this is really, I feel like this is on brand for you. And hey, I'm happy to join it for one day.

I'm bringing you down, dragging you into the muck. Let me give a, all right, here, before we move on to the next one, if Lions fans are going, can we get something, Can you say something nice about him here? A couple things. They faced the fifth toughest schedule last year. So that's going to be working in their fit.

You know, it's not going to be as hard. This year, the third most injured team in the NFL last year, according to adjusted games law. So your depth shouldn't be as tested as much. You get some of those starters specifically on that offensive line, maybe out there a little bit more. There were two, five, and one in one score of games. So they were, you know, competitive in roughly half their games last year.

So if that swings in your favor a little bit, that's good. And then this other nugget, which I really liked from Football Outsiders Almanac, their rookies played over 6,000 snaps last year, most in the NFL. So if some of those guys can improve and make that leap a little bit, then maybe the roster can look a little bit better than we're talking about. I'm sort of with you. I still think mediocrity is the ceiling. I think I've got them at like 6 and 11 this year.

You know, things go right. Maybe they win seven games. If things really go right, maybe they win eight games. But I think that's on the other end of it. But I think if you're a Lions fan, you just want to see kind of encouragement, Campbell's messaging going through, maybe some of these younger players improving and then kind of, you know, feel like you're building towards something. All right, we got the Lions out of the way.

My first one is like kind of out there. I want to get your take on this for sure. I'm lower on the rookie wide receiver hype train than probably anybody else because I've dug up some numbers here. And I want to give you a little bit of a pop quiz here, Stephen. And so past 10 years, 40 wide receivers have been taken in the first round. What do you think like the median rookie season is just in terms of receiving yards? This is wide receivers only, not tight ends, all first round picks last 10 years.

Oh, man. Can we take out Laquan treadwell? Because I think he just like skews the numbers. Okay, I'm going to say, if you're going to take Jamar Chase, you've got to include the one try. That's a good point. Okay. Are we doing receptions, yards, and touchdowns?

Just yard. All I have is, you all. Just, just yards. I would say, I would say $6.50. Good guys. Very good. You're, you're, well, it's a little high, but very close. It's 556 yards, uh, for first round picks.

And so I think for most people, maybe I'm wrong. When I looked it up, I was like, man, that's lower than I would think, let's do it for second round pick. So second round, there have been 50 wide receivers taken. What do you have for second round picks, kind of the median rookie season? I would go. I would say 400. 400.

441. You're doing better than this thing. I was anticipating. You're supposed to be way off so that I can be like, I'm making these brilliant points. You're a little too close. I actually like hacked into your Google Docs and I know all the answers to this. I'm just trying to be modest by being off by a little bit. Very smart. All right. Last one. Fourth round picks. 47 wide receivers taken in the fourth round over the last 10 years, the median rookie season. Ooh, that's tough. I would say 225. 68 yards. Oh, man. The season. 68 yards. So you're saying, Sheel, why are you bringing this up?

What the hell is your point here? So it's training camp. Everyone's getting hyped up. I love it. I like looking at the clips online of Romeo Dobbs, of Alec Pierce, of whoever else you want to say, and you're reading all the team writers, and you're saying, wow, they could really be good.

This is a good baseline. We have to keep in mind. I mean, in my opinion, Jamar Chase and Justin Jefferson, like, ruined this for everybody. Like, thinks that every rookie receiver is going to be Jamar Chase or Justin Jefferson. Those guys are so far in a way, the exception when it comes to just coming in and being

unbelievably productive right away, that you have to keep that in mind. In the last 10 years, 10 rookie wide receivers have had a thousand yard season. So if you want to look at this whole class, you can pick one guy who's probably going to have a thousand yards and the rest are not going to be nearly as productive. So, you know, it comes to mind with some of these teams like the pack. you know, they really, I mean, they're not doing anything. Like sometimes the coaches will be like settle down on this guy. I mean, it seems like they're hyping up Romeo Dobbs as much as anybody. I hope the guy's awesome. I hope he's like the story of this season. The numbers indicate that

over half of fourth round picks have fewer than 100 yards as rookies. So like that, you know, that is the norm there, the Colts. And I might be getting to the Colts a little bit later in this exercise, but they need Alec Pierce to be good right away. The odds are he's not even going to be able to perform as a wide receiver too. The Titans with Trailing Burps, the Cowboys with Jail and Tobert. So my thing is just like we got to settle down with the rookie wide receivers. And God, I hate when sports media tells fans to settle down. Like the point is to be excited and be hype.

So again, this is like we hate ourselves a little bit during this exercise. But it's just I feel like that context is very important with these. rookie wide receivers and expectations for 2022. And I would extend that to all rookies. I feel like as fans, we kind of just assume that, oh, the guy was the first round pick he's going to be an impact starter. I don't know. How many impact rookie starters do we have last year?

Yeah. Especially for teams that were contending. Like Jamar Chase obviously comes to mind, Michael Parsons, but there aren't like clear difference makers. There are going to be rookies that show flashes of being a good player. But I think the ability for rookies to really, impact a team's chances over the course of a season is a little overvalued by us as fans.

And I would say the same thing for receivers. I would also have the Jets to that list who are relying on Garrett Wilson to be something to kind of help Zach Wilson come along. I don't know if that's what you're banking on, these young receivers, especially in New York where they're banking on two young wide receivers to help this young quarterback. I think you might be in for a disappointing season.

Yeah, I totally agree. It's probably the biggest mistake, you know, and I have to catch myself doing with analysis. It's like, oh, they drafted this guy, plug him in. I mean, even in the first round, what 40% of those guys are never going to be, like, quality starters. And so as rookies, especially, it's way lower than that. So I'm with you there.

All right. What's your second one here? All right. I'm going with Russell Wilson. Wow. Okay. I disagree on this one. Let's talk about it. I figured you would.

You covered the Seahawks. I think you're closer to you've seen him up close. You probably have a higher opinion of him than me because of that, which, hey, I've been a Russell Wilson, I've kind of been a Russell Wilson hater my whole career, so I'd not continue it as he goes to Denver. My concern is, it's not so much with Russell Wilson. The Russell Wilson, like we knew at his peak with the Seahawks, I'm kind of concerned after last year because there was one stat where we saw him fall off a little bit, and I think that's a troubling one for me.

And that's his mobility. He wasn't the scrambler, scrambler that he was in years past. And I think with his game, which is very unique, like we've never seen a quarter. quarterback succeed and thrive for as long as Russell Wilson has with this unique style of play, which is really built on on volatile situations. Like he is the one quarterback who thrives under pressure, who thrives throwing deep balls. Like consistently he's good at these things that quarterbacks are never consistently good at. But when you take away that mobility, it's almost like that meme where you have the guy putting

down the little domino and it leads to like the big domino falling. I think that's what we'll see. we might see with Russell Wilson's game. And I could be wrong. Maybe he overcomes this. Maybe he takes another step at like the mental side of the game. And as a pocket passer, he becomes better. But I don't know.

Without that mobility, I think that that really neuters his game a lot. And then the pieces around him are also unconvincing for me, especially after Tim Patrick's injury. I think that's a big deal because of the type of quarterback Russell Wilson is. He's the type of quarterback that's going to trust his receivers to win. And I think Tim Patrick was an ideal target for him. And then you have Nathaniel Hackett, who's a first year, first year head coach. He's calling an offense that he didn't call the offense in Green Bay.

When he called the offense in Jacksonville, didn't really go so well. And you also lose Mike Munchek, who I think is an underrated loss for them. Because we know how important the offensive line is to Russell Wilson. Because of his style of play, we saw, like when he struggled in Seattle, it was always the offensive line, right? And now they kind of lose this piece who really helped to revitalize. that offensive line over the last couple of years. I know he helped Garrett Bowles a lot.

I don't know if like all these pieces, there's just little things that are holding me back from really being optimistic about this. And you could find it at every part of the offense. On the offensive line, quarterback, at wide receiver now with Tim Patrick being hurt in the coaching staff. And then on the other side of the ball that you lose Vic Fangio, I know he wasn't the best head coach,

but that's going to hurt your defense. So I could actually put the Denver Broncos as my pick for this. But I'm going to say Russell Wilson, I don't think this, I don't think the situation is as good as it looked on paper when we first heard about this trade. I don't know how much better it is than what he had in Seattle. And that's really the big thing is like, oh, yes, we saw some decline, but that was mostly on the coaching staff that didn't really adapt to Russell Wilson. Well, I don't know if this situation is going to be much better. I think your points are all fair for sure, especially the mobility one.

I mean, as he gets, if he gets banged up, if he gets some more kind of those nagging injuries, those out-of-structure plays, the second reaction plays, which has just been a part of what he's done, his entire career. I mean, like you said, it's like it is sort of a one-of-one to be that efficient at quarterback when that's the way you play. But I just look at the track record. I mean, 10 seasons in Seattle, they finished in the top eight and DVOA eight times. There were only two exceptions.

Even last year, where we look at last year, and I know like the eye test, you're going, wait a minute, the Seahawks stunk last year, they had some very high highs and some very, low lows when it evened out. They were a top eight in offensive efficiency if you just look at the numbers. And I was looking at the Broncos numbers. I was surprised their offense was top half of the league in DVOA last year.

So I'm looking at that supporting cast going, man, if they were doing that with Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Locke, like Russell Wilson doesn't need to have to be an MVP candidate. He just kind of needs to be better than those guys. I think their run games going to be pretty good. The offensive line to me is a concern. And I'm glad you brought that up. I was looking at Brandon Thorne's offensive line rankings, and I think he had them in like the late 20s,

which was kind of surprising to me and basically anything, you know, I'm going to trust Brandon Thorne on offensive line evaluation over myself. But that said to me, man, that could be sort of a weak spot. You mentioned it they lost Tim Patrick, Nathaniel Hackett, a complete wild card. I just look at the track record with Wilson, and he's dealt with horrible offensive lines.

He's dealt with wide receiver groups that might not have been great. And I think there is some upside there with, with Sutton and Judy, at least in Denver. And I feel like it's going to work out for them pretty well. A change of scenery. I think he's going to be able to lift up some of those pieces, make up for some of those things. But what you said, that would it be completely shocking

if some of those things kind of manifested themselves and all of a sudden you're looking at it going, man, last year it wasn't just the injury. He is on the decline. He is in his mid-30s, which usually you would say a quarterback can still be good, but a quarterback who plays his style, maybe that's not going to last as long as somebody obviously like Tom Brady. So I disagree with you there,

even though I understand all the points that you definitely make a lot of valid points there. Also the division, I mean, you look at it going, shoot, is he going to out duel Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes? And if you like the Raiders as a sneaky team, that's going to be tough as well. If he were traded like the NFC East, I would feel a lot better about saying he's going to be fine. They're going to the playoffs, but we will see there. The NFL week one odds are out, and now's the time to try Fandual Sportsbook if you haven't already.

Get in on the action early this season. Right now, new FandualSportsbook customers can get a no-swet first bet up to $1,000. I don't know. What do you want to put that on? Maybe the Saints under, eight and a half? I don't know. I can't see them winning nine or ten games here. Here's what you do.

You sign up using promo code Ringer NFL, place your first bet, and Fandul will give you up to $1,000 back in free bets if you don't win. There's no better place to get ready for the football season than on Fanduel, America's number one sportsbook and official sports betting partner of the NFL. Download the Fandul Sportsbook app and sign up using promo code Ringer NFL to get started with your no sweat first bet up to $1,000. That's promo code Ringer NFL, Well, 21 plus and present in Arizona, Connecticut, Iowa, Illinois, and Louisiana, permitted perishes only, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, West Virginia, or Wyoming. First online real money wager only refund issued as non-withdrawable free bets that expire 14 days after receipt.

Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fandul.com. Gambling problem, call 1-800 gambler or visit Bandul.com slash RG in Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Illinois, 1-800-N-N-S-E-T-E-N-E-T-E-N-E-N-E-T-E-N-E-N-E-N-E-G-G-G-G-G-G-G-G-G-G-G-G-G-C-T-C-C-G-T-C-E-S-E-E-S-E-S-E-E-S-E-E-S-E-S-E-S-E-S-E-S-E-N-E-S-E-E-S-E-N-E-S-E-S-E-N-E-S-E-S-E-S-N-E-S-E-S-S-N-E-S-S-N-E-L-S-S-S Red Line, 1-800-9-9-7-89 in Tennessee, 1-800-5-2-2-4-7-0, Wyoming, or visit www.1-800-Gambler.net in West Virginia. My second one, I've just got a team here. I've been on the fence a little bit about them, but I feel comfortable where I settled. I want to see what you think, and that's the New Orleans Saints. New Orleans. I love you. I love coming to New Orleans, great city, great fan base. I just think people are papering over like a bunch of huge factors here

thinking that this team is going to get back to the playoffs. Sorry, you're with me there. So I think you look at it on paper and this, you know, what we do, we go team by team. I'm going, okay, you know, they've got Michael Thomas back, Jarvis Landry, Chris Olavé, that's Alvin Camara. That's a nice group. They've got probably a top 10 offensive line. They've got probably a top 10 defense.

So maybe they'll be competitive. The NFC is wide open. But there are two things that I think are just being completely underrated and, they're like pretty obvious, so I don't want to act like I'm making brilliant points here. Like Sean Payton, freaking on, like one of the best coaches of the last, what, 20 to 30 years in the NFL, an offensive savant, a master at being able to do more with less when not, he doesn't have everything at his disposal.

I mean, one over 63% of his games. And now you're going from that to Dennis Allen. I think Dennis Allen has been a very good defensive coordinator, probably one of the best in the NFL over the last five years or something. but completely unproven as a head coach. I mean, his run with the Raiders, and I, you know, we can believe in second chances, but 8 and 28 in his three-year stint with the Raiders.

Now you're coming in. He's still going to call the defense. He's got James Winston as his quarterback. You know, I was joking on a previous pod. For a head coach, you want to come in and, like, replace Urban Meyer. You don't want to come in and try to replace Sean Payton. This isn't the recipe for success. So I'm very concerned about that,

even though they're keeping a lot of the staff and the schemes in place to be able to clock management and challenges and go for it on fourth down and then calling the plays and then the culture and all the leadership and all that stuff that comes with being a head coach. It's just a different job defensive coordinator and head coach. I'm concerned there. And then I think you like James probably more than me, but I'm very concerned about James Winston here. I mean, seven games sample last year.

The numbers were good. I always felt like the I test did not match the numbers there. I thought there was some flukiness there where if he played all 16 games, a lot of that stuff was going to catch up with him. He's coming off of an ACL injury here. And I just feel like he's not the right quarterback for the way they could win games. You know, like if they were like, we're going to win with defense, special teams and just have a quarterback who doesn't screw it up, you know, almost like a Teddy Bridgewater type,

I might be like, okay, I can buy that. We know that's not how James is going to play. He's going to make some highlight real throws. He's also going to make some unbelievable mistakes that even last year, had Sean Payton shaking his head there on the sideline. So I think they're more like a seven-win team than a nine- or ten-win team. I don't think they're going to make the playoffs. I'm a little bit nervous because the NFC is wide open and their division's not good,

so I could get old takes exposed here once the season plays out. But that's where I am on the Saints. Agree or disagree with those points. I agree with the overall take. I disagree with some of the points, especially James, And especially the you calling for them replacing James with Teddy Bridgewater, a Teddy Bridgewater type quarterback. This just goes against everything I think about quarterbacks.

You're taking away. You want a conservative quarterback instead of a gamer, a guy that's going to throw it down field, throw it into tight windows. I totally, I hate your brand of football in quarterbacking already. That's add that to my list. That's what I'm hating on today. But no, I agree. Like Sean Payton is a big deal.

We're not making, we should make more. this. It's not just that. And I realize they're keeping the offense intact. It's like the same offense. Pete Carmichael was his longtime assistant. But I, what I always thought Sean Payton's biggest strength was was game planning, creating mismatches and exploiting bad players on defense. When he's not there, you can't like just having his playbook isn't enough. You need more than his playbook. You need his mind in the game in the meeting rooms, game planning, figuring out how to take advantage of mismatches. And they don't have that anymore. And I do agree that maybe this receiving core isn't the best with James's skill set because this is, like you look at it, Jarvis Landry has never been a downfield guy.

We know Michael Thomas is a slant boy, right? That was his nickname or whatever. That was the meme. He catches shorter passes. Chris Lobby, I do think, has some deep ball ability, but he's more of a route runner, more of an intermediate guy. So I do think there's an awkward fit there. And that's going to be tough for Card Michael to kind of figure out over, you know, his first season really taking ownership of this offense. So I am concerned there. The defense, I, like, Tyron Matthew, I think his name is better than his game at this point. That's what the league said, right? With, I mean, his market, that was kind of, sometimes you just look at the actions of the 32 teams, not to say that they're always correct, but that, you know, that was a surprising one. And that, you know, I says at least

something. I, you know, still can be a good player, but at least says something about him. And his film wasn't very good last year is the thing. Like, he wasn't making plays on the ball like he did in years past. That was a clear one in his stat line. He was missing a lot more tackles. He just didn't, like, the effort wasn't there at some points. Like, against the Bengals, there were plays where there, you know,

Jamar Chase is running down field and Tyron Matthews kind of jogging. It was kind of jarring to see from a player who, who, who, has done so many things on the football field. Like, that's his thing, is versatility. And I don't think you had that versatility last year. He wasn't really the slot defender that he's been in years past. I still think he's a great brain to have on the team and to have on the field. And you want those types of players.

But I don't, like, how are you replacing Marcus Williams? They don't really have a guy to do that. And Marcus Williams was such a big deal for that off our defense and what Dennis Allen did on the back end. I think that's a big loss. And that's an area where, you know, we always make these jokes about Mickey Loomis and he's a cap wizard and the cap doesn't exist in New Orleans and they don't care. But that was a big loss for them.

And I think they've downgraded at the safety position. And that's been such an important position for that team in the past with Malcolm Jenkins and Marcus Williams. And now all of a sudden you don't have that. And like you said, you have Dennis Allen who has so much more on his plate now on game days. That could detract from his defensive coordinator abilities. And we've seen young coaches have problems kind of juggling those two things.

And it kind of affects them in one way or another. Either their play calling remains as good as it was when they were a coordinator, but we kind of see like the game management issues arise. Like we've seen that with Kyle Shanahan, and we've seen that with Sean McVeigh or the other way around. And I wouldn't be surprised if this defense falls off more than we expected to because all the coaches are still there. And then obviously losing pain, the offense isn't going to be as good without them.

It could still be good enough, but I don't think it's going to be as good. So there are a lot of areas where I think this team kind of downgrading. by at least 5%. And when you start stacking those on top of each other, all of a sudden it's a big regression for it. Yeah, there's just so many what-ifs. I mean, Winston has to be healthy and not turn the ball over. Dennis Allen has to be a way better head coach

in his second stint than his first in. Michael Thomas has to stay healthy. Alvin Camara, the suspension is still looming. Chris Olavé has to be a good rookie right away. The defense has to stable off regression when they're coming in with two new safety. So that's where I am on those two. All right, let's finish quickly.

We've got to get to our last two. very quickly. What's your last one here? All right. This one's easy, easy to explain. I'm going with the Rams off and it's because of Stafford's elbow. It's so ominous to me. And I say that because this was a team that really leaned on his arm last year. Without Stafford, this is what the 2019 Rams looked like. Their offensive line was really weak. They didn't really have a run game. But now they had this quarterback who could thrive in situations where the defense knew they had a pass and now all of a sudden if Stafford's elbow doesn't allow them to just throw the ball all around the field, then I think this offense is going to fall off a fair amount. And we got to talk

about the wide receiver situation after losing Robert Woods, after losing Odell Beckham, who was such a big part of their playoff run. Now there's a lot on Cooper Cup's plate because Alan Robinson kind of fell off last year and he's a little older. He has injury problems. Tutu Atwell, it looks like a wasted pick at this point. He's buried on the depth chart. And Cooper Cup himself has had some health concerns. So, I don't know if he can handle this workload for a second straight year. That's a lot to ask of a player. I don't know.

The vibes are bad in that way for me. It's one of the biggest wild cards around the league right now. I mean, I'll give McVeigh the benefit of the doubt. I mean, they've been what, top 10 offense, four out of five years,

three of those years with Jared golf. So it's like if Stafford's at 75 percent, I feel like they'll find a way to figure it out. But you're right. I mean, this could be something we're talking week seven going to shoot that elbow injury was way more serious. Then they let on.

It seems like there's a different report every day. about how he's feeling. So that is an interesting one. All right. Last one for me, and I need your take on this really quickly after I let it rip, because I wasn't sure if I actually believed it or not. Matt Ryan's supporting cast. I mean, I'm looking at this going,

they have a top, bottom five left tackle situation. They're either going to start Matt Pryor or a rookie in Bernard Raymond, a 25-year-old rookie who was a third-round pick. Michael Pittman, I like, after that, I mean, who is catching the football from Matt Ryan? We just talked about how rookies like Alec Pierce. I mean, maybe they'll be. great, but that's usually not the norm. Paris Campbell, I hope he's healthy.

Could be a fun player. He's never played more than seven games. And so I don't like counting on the draft to fill big holes on your roster. I feel like you should have a baseline of competency and then try to draft over those. And I just look at this situation. I still think the Colts are going to be pretty good, but it feels like

they always ask Frank Reich to kind of do more with less and he's able to do that and he's done that with all sorts of quarterbacks, but I feel like it limits their ceiling a little bit, not having these holes filled and potentially having like if Michael Pittman misses a few games, I mean, now all of a sudden it's like the worst past catching group in the NFL. I understand your point, but I think Frank Reich is good enough where the floor is so high

that I don't think it's going to be an issue. And I love Matt Ryan and I'm surprised that a lot of people have written him off and saying he's watched up. I really think his tape last year was good even if the numbers don't show it. I think that combination of Ryan, Reich, and Jonathan Taylor is good enough. to carry them no matter how well they're receiving court performs. I agree, though, that they are relying on some unreliable players in Paris Campbell and then a rookie and Alex Pierce. So I can see it both ways. Yeah, I think there's still a 10-win team. I think the offense will probably be between

the like the 10th and 15th maybe best offense. I think they'll have some fun moments with Rike and Ryan that just kind of bothers me sometimes where it's like, you know, if you got a quarterback this old, fill some of those holes and really take a shot at it. I don't know if that's ownership or what. They're a little conservative there at times. All right. We got all those in there. We had to speed through the final two. Stephen Ruiz, thank you for joining me today. Thanks to Carlos Chiroboga for producing additional production supervision from Connor Nevins and Arjuna, Ram Gopal.

We will be back tomorrow with the Ringer NFL show.