The Ringer NFL Show - Big Coaching, Playoff, and Draft Predictions Heading Into the Postseason | Extra Point Taken

Episode Date: January 9, 2024

Sheil and Ben start the pod by analyzing some of the possible coaching scenarios for Bill Belichick before shining a light on the job Antonio Pierce did for the Raiders as their interim leader. Speaking of Las Vegas, Sheil has an idea that Jim Harbaugh and Justin Fields should join forces, while Ben breaks down the most exciting teams in the wild-card round (23:56). The boys end the pod by discussing the futures of some of the teams that didn’t make the tournament this year and debating some of their draft and playoff predictions (48:27). The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please check out theringer.com/RG to find out more, or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Hosts: Sheil Kapadia and Ben Solak Associate Producer: Chris Sutton Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Musical Elements: Devon Renaldo Social: Kiera Givens and Eduardo Ocampo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Welcome to Extra Point Taking. Shield Capote here, joined by Ben Solek the 20, 23. Season is over for 18 teams. 12 teams are getting ready for a playoff game. And as Solek would say, the 49ers and Ravens are just chilling for a week until they find out. Just living. I would never say just chilling. Come on.

You say chilling or living? You say living. We're living. Okay. All right. Well, listen. First old man moment of the podcast, many more to come. here. We've got five head coach openings as we record this. Maybe another one will happen as we

record this. And we've got more to come also. So so much to get to Benny Souls. How are you feeling? Dude, that season went fast. That's the fastest the season's gone in a bit. I felt like it blessed by. I felt like it was a great time overall. 10 out of 10 season would recommend good chaos. I'm very sad we didn't get. I'm very sad that we this, this Dennis Allen, Arthur Smith touchdown scored, James of Winston. Devastated this happened week 18. We needed two or three weeks of this. We needed a rematch. That was the only mess. Other than that, great season. I would agree with that. That feels like it would be one that you or I

would predict on like a on a Friday show. So yeah, we missed out on that one. But listen, that was a good little twist to week 18. All right, we're going to get to all of it. I don't know what Solex theme is for this. My theme on a couple of my takes are I need to like start making some offseason predictions because stuff could be happening at any moment here. I'm not talking about. trades or, well, I might be talking about one trade, but more so, where are the big chips falling with these head coaches? Like I said, we've got five openings right now. We've got Washington.

We've got Atlanta. We've got Carolina. We've got the Chargers. And we've got the Raiders. Potentially coming? New England Patriots may be coming. Tennessee Titans. Other than that, I think we're probably talking about it would be a surprise if other jobs open, but there absolutely could be a surprise. That happens every year. So I'm starting us off, Ben Solac, with the story, biggest story. We've already committed many, many, many minutes and segments to this man. And the man is Bill Belichick. But I feel like things are happening quickly in the NFL.

And so I need to get out ahead of my prediction of what I think is going to happen with Bill Belichick. So here it is. Take number one. Bill Belichick is coaching the Atlanta Falcons in 2020. 4. All right. So where did this come from? Now, I got to give a shout out to Diana Rossini of the Athletic. She's the first person I saw who reported this writes a terrific column on the weekends with kind of the intel she's gathered throughout the week. And she wrote on that caught my eye. I'm blogging on Saturday morning reading it. She says, keep an eye out for Arthur Blank to take a big swing for Bill Belichick if he moves on from Arthur Smith. This isn't a rebuild in Atlanta anymore. As the weekend goes on, you hear Bill Belichick linked to Atlanta a little bit more. You know, you always have to take all these reports with a grain of salt. Is it agent-driven?

Is it somebody trying to create a market? All those things happen this time of year. There's no doubt about it. But the Atlanta Falcons were the first team to announce their coach firing this weekend. I mean, Sunday night before, you know, you went to bed. We were two minutes into Black Monday. I was writing a column still. Arthur Smith was out there.

And quite frankly, that surprised. me. I think they were justified in firing Arthur Smith, three straight, seven win seasons. They had higher expectations this year. It didn't happen. But I also don't think that was like a clear no-brainer. They weren't like a train wreck or anything. You weren't like, oh my God, this is the worst coach in the NFL, anything like that. I could have imagined a scenario where Arthur Blank said, I like Arthur Smith personally. It didn't work out this year. I'm going to give him one more year. Let's see what we can do a quarterback and go forward. That did not happen. He was out of there right away, which makes me wonder, Ben, does Arthur Blank already have a good idea of what

the market's going to look like and who he's going to hire? So case for Belichick is pretty simple here. You've drafted three skilled position players in the top 10 the last three years. You've got the eighth pick in this draft. You're paying three offensive linemen, $10 million or more per year. You signed veterans on defense last season. The division is wide open. We all saw this, a terrible division. Falcons didn't win it. Bucks win it for the third straight season somehow. But it's reasonable to believe that you can take this falcons team with a good coach and some solution at quarterback, maybe add a veteran in the offseason, and you can win the NFC South next year. And maybe you can be the best team in that division for years to come. So it's not like a rebuild

in Atlanta. They are pretty much in like we want to be competitive right now with a couple more moves here. So that's the case from Atlanta's perspective. From Bill Belichick's perspective, he's going to have options, but like, you don't get, you know, you don't get your pick of like any job. You know, they're going to be somewhat limited. So you have to compare what's this job going to give him that other jobs might not. I mean, Carolina's a worse situation, given the owner, Vegas seems like it would be a weird fit. The Chargers, maybe. But ultimately, I feel like Belichick's decision, and again, he's still coach of the Patriots right now. I don't think that's going to be the case for much longer. And I think his decision's going to come down

to Atlanta and potentially Washington are the two teams. I kind of have my eye on here. And I think the case for Belichick for Atlanta is like you're not drafting a quarterback number two and having to develop him. Like this is a, you know, you can add a veteran quarterback hopefully and you can be ready to go right away. So if that's what you want, if that's what you're chasing, if you want to chase these wins, if you want to just have a competitive team, you want to get back in the playoffs, you want to be relevant once again in this final phase of your career, I think Atlanta could make a lot of sense. What do you think? Bill Belichick, Atlanta Falcons coach, 2024. So I like it because I think Bill Belichick is still a good coach, and I think that Atlanta's got good pieces, right? Obviously,

I never endorsed the Falcons as winning the division on this podcast. I never endorsed that they're making the playoffs on this podcast. I never, ever, ever any time said they were going to be good. However, I do like some of the pieces that they have, right? Offensively with Drake London, with Bejohn Robinson, even with Kyle Pitts, with that offensive line investment that they've got, like there's good pieces there. And then defensively, and this is where things I think start to get a little tricky. There's young players to like. I think that Zach Harrison had a good season.

I think that Nate Lamb and the lineback had a good season. AJ Terrell, Jesse Bates, like there's stuff that you like. I really like what Ryan Nielsen did as their first year DC. I think that Nielsen got more out of that defensive unit than you would expect given the resources there. If I'm Atlanta, I like my position to bring in like a really revolution,

like a nice young offensive mind, say, hey, we got some pieces for you here. Go get a quarterback that makes your system work, right? If you're a go to QB Run guy, go get Justin Fields, get a Shanahan and I and go sign Kirk Cousins. And then we've already got office line for you. We've got weapons for you.

And keep Nielsen in the building. I think you can recover this team pretty quickly. I think that's a good path for you. If you go the Belichick route, then you're losing Nielsen, and you need to get a good OC in to address that side of the ball. And Belichick's OC hiring is like, it's spurious, right? It's something that you and I have a lot.

It's going to be Josh McDaniels, isn't it? I mean, it just feels like that's going to be. So I'm not sure I'm more excited by Bill Belichick, Josh McDaniels, and, you know, insert, you know, probably Steve Belichick here. Steve Belichick. I'm not sure I'm more excited about that than I am about like Ben Johnson and Ryan Nielsen in on this thing. I think like that gives me some juice.

when I look at the jobs, like let's say in the world of which Belichick is picket of the litter, right? Let's say every single team is putting it off on the table for Belichick that's open. I think we're underestimating just how valuable the Chargers job is with Justin Herbert in hand. If you go back and you look for like equivalent times where a quarterback that was this definitely good,

like I don't need to do it. Oh, top three, top four. Very clearly like a great young quarterback. You go and try to find jobs that open up with that guy. it's hard. It's like Andrew Luck with Frank Reich, but then he was coming off of injury stuff and kind of we knew how that went.

Like, DAC, technically, again, like with Garrett into McCarthy, he was also a little bit older than Herbert was. Like, you don't really find mid-20s guys who are definitely good at quarterback. You don't find that head coaching job open very often. I think that the surety that you get from Herbert as opposed to Washington with a draft pick,

Atlanta with a draft pick and trade capital, Vegas with kind of nothing. Like, the first thing you need is a franchise quarterback when you go to pick a job and the charges have it. It's done. Like the keystone is in place and everything else you try to figure out. I think that if he had his pick of the litter, like he used to land of Washington, I think if the charges put an offer on the table for him.

Like if I were in his shoes, that'd be the offer, I'd be taken. Yeah, it's always so hard because we don't know, we always assume we know what each guy's motivation is. And certainly Bill Belichick's motivation is going to be. be different than someone like Ben Johnson's motivation, you know, at this stage in their careers. If you're Ben Johnson, you're like, I want to, you know, be somewhere where hopefully I can be the coach for a long time and I can develop and grow and we can win and we can build a thing. I don't know exactly. I just think Bill Belichick probably wants to keep coaching. He probably

wants to win games. He probably wants to break that record. And obviously, you always want to win. You always want to win Super Bowls, but there's other stuff that comes with that. Are the Chargers going to be willing to pay what other teams are willing to pay? Does he like the ownership structure. How does he feel about the rest of the roster there? All those different things. From a quarterback perspective, you're right. I mean, that's a no-brainer. So I think those are the big questions with Atlanta. One would be quarterback situation. You'd have to be sold on, hey, I can bring somebody in that can fit with the other pieces. And the other thing that's interesting there is they still have a GM in place in Terry Fontenow. Like they fired Arthur Smith. They did not fire the

GM. And I think they said the GM is going to help with the coach search. So I don't know if that's something that Belichick would be comfortable with or not. We're going to find out a lot in the next maybe just this week, week, two weeks about what is Belichick looking for from kind of a power structure perspective? Is he open to working with somebody as a GM who he doesn't know? Is he saying, I will hire a GM, but it's going to be someone who I have a background with. And that's the way we're going to go. I don't think, and maybe I'm wrong. He's going to be like, I'm going to go in and I'm going to be the guy calling all the shots at this point in my career. But maybe he will be.

Yeah. Who knows? These coaches say a lot of things, but ultimately they generally don't like giving up some of that power or that control. Can I get a percent chance he actually ends up staying with the Patriots? I have it under 10 percent. Can I get a zero to 10 shield rage if he ends up staying with the Patriots? I mean, I don't think you're going to get a shield rage.

I disagree. Like, I think I do disagree with the consensus that like he's absolutely still a top-tier coach in the NFL. I think can he scheme a defense up? Absolutely. Come up with a game plan, the experience. I'm not arguing with the resume. I'm looking at what you need to win in the year,

2024, I guess I should say now. And so much of it, you know, I write my, you know, my coaching rules, like so much of it is, can you put together a great staff? This guy has had two chances to find an offensive coordinator the last two years, and he's got absolutely nothing. He goes from Matt Patricia to Bill O'Brien. So that to me, you know, is a huge, huge problem.

And so if you can't really come up with an answer for the offense, and again, maybe it'll just be Josh McDaniels and that'll be fine. That's going to raise your floor a little bit. But, I mean, they've had, I think there are three teams that have fewer wins than the Patriots in the last two seasons. Like, I don't care that the team, you know, plays. Like most teams play hard, unless you just have a coach who everybody hates, most professional athletes, most professional football players are going to play hard. they have a personal pride. So, like, I don't give him too many points for that. I think there was some recency bias with kind of how they finished out the season.

They were more competitive. This was a team that was getting blown out. This was a team that was losing to, like, the Washington commanders this season. This was not a well-coached team for most of the season. So I don't know that I'll have rage. I mean, I'll just feel like, what are you doing? This is like, I feel like this was, this was the extra year. Yeah.

You know what I mean? Like, I was fine. Like, all right, like, he's earned it. Give him another year. see how it shakes out with a non-mat Patricia. That was this year. I don't really know what you're doing if you're going from this and say,

keep him again. I mean, that team needs a lot of work. When it's theory, you're like, I don't know if they'll be rage. If this comes to practice, you're going to hop on the Monday show, but my first take,

Robert Kraft, what are you doing? Like, a classic shield little tempo. That's probably right. And you're doing this, like this week. Like this, it'll come out for sure.

It'll come out. I buy it. All right. That's probably right. All right. There you go. Give me your on the record, though. Where do you think Belichick?

Because we don't know how fast this thing can move. So I'm saying, Atlanta, what is your, if I have to pick right now, water gun to my midsection, where's Bill Belichick coaching next year? 24 hours ago, I would have told you the commanders. I don't think it's the commanders anymore. I think Atlanta and Chargers are your leaders in the clubhouse. What I find really fascinating by the Patriots job, and I tried to get a take on this, and I couldn't really get it square.

so I just, we'll just talk about it. It seems like people really want this job, man. Like, there's the whole Rable rumor, like Rable would leave Tennessee to go to New England and coach there. I've heard that if and when John Harbaugh about to coach in the national championship game in an hour and 15 minutes when we're recording this podcast, ascends to the NFL at the end of the season.

I've heard that Harbaugh is the Patriot's job is the one that he wants. Like, guys want to go there. Yeah? You're excited to build DeMario Douglas? Yeah. Excit. City Sal and a little Marti Mopu, that's the roster you're trying to. And like, those guys, like, I bring up those guys because they are legitimate developmental players.

But it's like, you know, there's other rosters with younger dudes and star dudes. Like, it's interesting to me that people want that job. I'm assuming it's the craft commitment, right? That's the number one thing. Ownership. You talk to the coaches around the NFL. That's the number one thing is they don't want an owner who's going to sort of get it. They want an owner who's going to give them resources to succeed and an owner who's not going to be too meddling.

get in their way. And I'm sure they look at Robert Kraft and their success over the many years. And I think Robert Kraft wants to win. Like, not every owner wants to win. They all say they want to win. Not all of them want to win. I do think he wants to win. So I think that's probably the number one thing.

These coaches have huge egos. They'll look at that roster. I mean, you think Jim Harbaugh is looking at that roster. And that's not like, he's probably looking at that going, oh, man, you know, we make a couple tweaks here. We're winning that division next year. That's how good coaches think. And so they think they could fix anything there.

So, yeah, it'll be interesting to see what they do. All right. So you've got Falcons or Char. I'm going to give you charges because I took Falcons, and it's not that fun if we pick the same thing. All right, what do you got? What's your first take? My first take is this. The Raiders should not give Antonio Pierce the job without a coaching search, but he is the leader in the clubhouse for the search. You're giving me that smile you give me that smile. You give me a Raider's take. My next take is on the Raiders, so give me your take, and then I'll build right off it. We got a big Raider segment here. Excellent work by Antonio Pierce, who seems like the man. let us start there, right?

Because obviously I just said, they shouldn't hand him the job, and that kind of stinks a little bit. I know Raiders faithful are excited about it, their chance in AP as he jogs off the field. Devante Adams, before this past game, right, before the division went over the Broncos,

saying, this is the guy that I want. I like him in the building. Max Crosby after the game, saying it's hard to find leaders of men. We found one. You know, fuck it up. Like, that was his legit quote. He was like, you're going to mess with this?

Like, he's, like, those are your offensive and defensive leaders. Those are your two most important players in the building without question, saying, I'd like to be the head coach of the team. Now, that, like, you know, it matters to a degree. Players tend to really like player coaches,

and that's what Antonio Pierce is. And so you got to take it with a grain of salt, but still, those are meaningful endorsements. Also meaningful is going five and four down the stretch, which is what Antonio Pierce did. Going three and one against the division, the division, which is what Antonio Pierce did, right? This team definitely got better from a personnel perspective

and make Devante work and stars are happy, and Jack Jones is going to earn snaps for us. Like, from a player management perspective, they got better. They also got better just like schematically. Like they just worked better on the field, right? Like the plays worked better. Offense defense. Patrick Graham, their D.C., that unit really stepped up,

sort of punching above their weight for the talent. They had Malcolm Coons. I forgot about the boy Malcolm Coons. Great finish of the season for the young men Malcolm Coons. So proof of the pudding is in eating. Like he did good work. Now, the interim tends to do good work on a roster that's spicy that's got some talent. And in general, when you promote an interim, it does not go well.

The last interim we got promoted to the permanent job was Doug Maron. In 2016, he held on to that Jags job for a few years. Had that Blake Bordell's run. That was fun. But in general, I don't think you look at the Doug Marone era as like, yeah, that was great. Mike Malarkey got the interim after Ken Wismundt, got fired with the Titans, held that job for a year. Yeah, got made at the playoffs in 2017, and then they kicked them out of there.

Not doing that. Romeo Cronel replaced Todd Haley, held on that chief's job for a year. Went 2 and 14. In 2010, we got to less than. Preser, who held onto that job for a few years with the Vikings. Again, not really a great run. And then Jason Garrett. Jason Garrett got the interim job over Wade Phillips in 2010,

held onto that job until 2019, made some postseason runs to Tony Roman, and Dak Prescott. And Garrett's pretty much your most successful interim to head coach example. He held him to the job for the longest, and he made multiple postseason runs. Besides him, you have, you have Tom Cable, you have Mike Singletary, 2009. You have Mike Tyson in 2001. You have Dick LeBone, Dave McGinnis in 2000. That's all of them in a year starts with the two.

In general, promoting the interim is not this sort of model for a team working well. The other thing that makes the Antonio Pierce promotion really interesting, and in my opinion, a little bit tricky, is that he lacks a lot of experience. He's really an unknown. Antonio Pierce's first year of coaching shield at the collegiate NFL level was 2018. is at Arizona State for two years, for four years, excuse me, and then he was with the Raiders for two years. He's got two years of NFL coaching experience, dude.

Like, that is a, you can make a good argument, but he's a blank slate. You might have discovered a diamond in the rough, right? He's got a ton of juice, got a ton of ideas. You can also make the argument that he just, he does not have a lot of connections, man. I mean, remember, this was McDaniel's staff, right? And Pierce came and, and Al Davis gave a great quote this week

where he said, you know, I didn't ask him to coach. I asked him to lead. I asked him to delegate, right? That's what he said. He was like, I had more such like, you know, captain the ship here. You can only ask a guy for that for so long. Eventually, you got to go out and hire some dudes. Do you know some dudes?

Like, what sort of connections do you have? What's your process for evaluating other coaches? How well are you going to ride the ups and the downs? Like, you know, the storybook Raiders, it was a great, great time. Everybody had a blast. But eventually at some point, the team's going to be bad. You're going to lose several games in a row. And like, are you prepared to lead the men through that?

You haven't been a coach for a long time. There's a lot of unknown with Antonio Pierce. So I think the Raiders should open up a search. I think they should bring other candidates into the building. I think they should also give Pierce a legitimate interview and say, like, all right, we know what you just did for last nine weeks. Tell us about the next three years. And Pierce deserves to be the leader in the clubhouse, the guy at the top of the short list

when those interviews start. But I do think that the Raiders got to go through a search. And if they go through the search and they say, you know what, we like our hand that we've been dealt with Pierce, we think that it's going to be good for us. Go for it. Who cares about the history of interim? It doesn't happen that often. And you got a real young guy that you like a lot.

It's okay. He's already in the building. He knows the staff. you're going to be able to keep a lot of continuity, you're going to be able to go forward. I wouldn't fault in that at all. I wouldn't come up here and say, oh, what a bad decision because Mike Malarkey didn't work. Like, no, nonsense. I would totally get it.

But I don't think you can go without seeing what else is out there. I don't think you can go without talking to your Ben Johnson's and your Mike McDonald's and your Bill Bello checks. And there's some nice coaching candidates in this cycle and see if one of them really speaks to you. And so I think the Raiders got to go for a search. I think it's a tricky situation with the interims because you're generally in a situation where people disliked the person they were replacing. And this is the like absolute prime example of that.

You know, how did the players feel about that environment playing for Josh McDaniels and what that experience was like? And all of a sudden you have a new voice, you have a refreshing voice, you're winning some games, you feel like you can be yourself more, you feel like you can cut loose a little more. And so I understand why the players really like that. That's not to me enough reason to keep the guy, but like that's good. I think relationships with players really matter. They were a competent team.

I mean, you mentioned it. Like they were much, they played better. They legitimately played better under him than they did. Under his coaching, no doubt. Yeah. So that's another feather in his cap. You know, I think he obviously had game management stuff with, which I vehemently disagreed with. But that's the type of thing that, like, you can learn.

You can develop that aspect of it. That's the type of thing that's going to show up when a guy hasn't done it before. And he's kind of maybe going with his gut a little bit. or maybe he's not sold on some of the more aggressive moves that a lot of the coaches have now. I mean, I think the big question for him would be, well, I think there's two. One is like, what current successful coach would you envision Antonio Pierce being like? Tomlin. It would probably be like a Tomlin or a Harbaugh, I was even going to say.

You know, these guys, like they're not going to call the offense. They're not going to call the defense. They're going to be like leaders, CEOs, good relationships with players. And so like that model has worked before. that model can work for you, Tonyo Pierce. I mean, I would have to know, like, what's your plan for this offense? Because, like, that is a huge question mark. Like, do you have guys you can bring in?

What kind of scheme do you want to run? That's everything. Defense, I mean, they did more. They were the more with less club this year, him and Patrick Graham. 100%. Patrick Graham, man. Every, once every six weeks, I watch the Raiders film a lot, but once every six weeks, Patrick Graham's unit comes out and just dunks on.

This going back until two years ago, we were just like, they had some drop eight stuff. I remember. I want to say it was against Herbert two years ago, where I was just like, what in God's name? Is Patrick Graham up to? He's fun, dude. How about Mahomes in that game?

I know the Chiefs' offense has struggled, but man, he had nothing in that game against the Raiders a couple of weeks ago. They held the Kevin O'Connell Vikings to three points in a game this year, which was really impressive. The problem was, those are the only three points scored. Yeah, and then the, yeah,

and you saw, you know, the Vikings put up 400. So I think there's a case for him. I'm with you. I'm not in the camp of, you got to give him the job. He's earned it 100%. I'm also not going to kill them if they do hire him.

So I'm with you there. I don't think that's how it's going to play out, Ben. I was going to say, if your take on Antonio Pierce is the same as mine, then what is your take? What else is going on with the Raiders besides the Antonio Pierce thing? Let's take a break and we'll come back and I'll tell you how I think it's going to play out.

Cliffhanger. Tees. All right. We're back on extra point. All right. My second take. I told you I'm throwing out some predictions in this episode. And so I got my Belichick Falcons one in there.

Las Vegas Raiders, week one next season. Jim Harbaugh and Justin Fields take the field for the Las Vegas Raiders. Wait, is Jim the Michigan one? I got it wrong earlier. I corrected you. I never know which one. Yeah, I corrected you.

It was okay. Jim Harbaugh. Thank you. I appreciate it. Now we're recording this right before the national championship. We wanted to get it out of the way so that we can. pick that game. I like the Huskies. Who do you got? Yes, sir. Me too. I like him too. All right. Congratulations to Michigan on winning the National Championship.

36 to 10 Wolverines. All right. So listen, Jim Harbaugh couldn't be, it couldn't be any more clear that the guy wants to get back in the NFL. I mean, you've just heard that over and over and over again. He's tried in the past a little bit. Nothing has worked out. That Vikings job looked like it was close. I would love to, I need to read, 10,000 words on what actually happened once he got in that building in Minnesota and interviewed because it sounds like however he acted or, you know, whatever his assumptions were. Listen, they fell bass backwards into Kevin O'Connell. That's a big win.

That's a big win. So the question is, what franchise will want Jim Harwell? I feel like it's going to happen this offseason. You know, he's a strange guy, but he wins wherever he goes. like he is clearly a very good football coach here. And so I'm looking at the different organizations here. And this feels like a very raidery type move. Remember, Jim Harbaugh, I think an NFL network reported,

hired Don Yee, who is Tom Brady's agent. We're getting inside football a little bit here. Hired Don Yeh, who is Tom Brady's agent. Brady has the obvious ties to the Raiders trying to get potential ownership stake there. It has a relationship. with Mark Davis. This to me looks like the most likely destination for Jim Harbaugh. It's between that and the, I could see the Chargers.

I could certainly see the Chargers. That would make a lot of sense as well. But I have a feeling that he's just going to come out as a wildcard after this national championship game, and he is going to end up being the head coach of the Las Vegas Raiders. And then I was thinking, well, they don't really have a quarterback. Who could their quarterback be? And the other big offseason question is where one of the other offseason questions is, where is Justin Fields going to end up?

I don't think Justin Fields is going to be the Chicago Bears quarterback next year. I don't think he's going to be on the roster. I think he's going to be traded. I was looking around and I thought, you know what? Harbaugh has shown a willingness to adapt to different quarterbacks. He will use the quarterback in the QB run game. It's not going to take a lot to get Justin Fields. I think, I think probably you're looking at a day two pick and maybe something else.

Raiders still have the 13th overall picked so they can get a blue chip player there. I think next year, week one, Las Vegas Raiders, Jim Harbaugh is the coach. Justin Fields is the starting quarterback as they begin a new era.

All right, so what do you think? You made the case for Antonio Pierce. You said, do the search. Now that I lay out the case for Jim Harbaugh, you think it makes sense? It doesn't make sense.

Not going to happen. What's your take? How expensive is, I think Jim Harva is going to be real expensive, right? It's going to be a big, big, big contract, big fat contract, yeah? Probably. Most coaches are going to cost money. That's always the issue with the Raiders, right? It's just what's the money look like for that.

Because from a ownership perspective, how much money does each ownership group have? The Raiders are like bottom one, bottom two, and in terms of the Davis family. Now, you can still be fine. Like, I think it's not like they're spending cab space. Remember, cabsays is not spent on coaches. This is just the pockets of the Davis family. but I don't know if I want to be, if he's like, hey, can I get Sean Payton's deal?

Because I imagine that that's something that Jim Harbaugh is going to say and do. I think that makes things a little bit questionable. Other than that, heck yeah. Very clear winning coach. Excellent.

I was going to say excellent culture guy. Excellent at setting his culture, right? Probably not an excellent culture, but very good at establishing his culture. Right. Excellent. And then culture guy is one word, right? kind of in that construction. So you get everybody on the same page,

going to run a tight ship. I think, like, a lot of the issues you ran into McDaniels, like the players didn't like him. And I think with Harbaugh, it's not that, like, the players love him the way they, they love like an Andy Reid,

or they love like Mike Tomlin or whatever. But he and the players, I get oneness of mind, right? The spearhead is set. Like, they move in one direction. You've seen it with Harbaugh's team over the course of decades now, NFL and collegiate football.

So I think overall, I think it solves some of your McDaniels problems. Justin Fields, the thing with the Raiders is like, if he's getting that job, he's getting it to definitely be the starter. Like, are you saying when he goes into camp, like, fight with Aiden O'Connell for the job? Like, I guess probably it's how you're framing it. But I feel like he'd win that, right?

I think so. Which I think a lot of the constructions for Fields right now are like, oh, like he's going to end up here and like maybe get a job. I fight for a job. If it's the Raiders, because the Raiders, remember, they went eight and nine. They don't have an early draft back to go out and get a guy. this is a spot where I think he would go

and very clearly start and I'll be curious to see for the Bears if they take Fields' desires into consideration like that tends to be more of like a star player thing but this is an amazing landing spot

for Fields. Devonte Adams and I think a clear starting gig you can't ask for much more so I think it's good for Harbon it's good for Fields it'd be a boon for the Raiders it'd be a big win for the Raiders.

I'm not sure they have the muscle to pull it off but I've doubted of the Raiders before and then they went and traded two first round picks for Devante Adams so live your job. dreams. Yeah, I never know with the ownership money thing. I mean, they obviously paid a lot to John Cruden. They had enough money to pay Josh McDaniels. So who knows, you know, what he would be asking for, whether that would be a deterrent or not. But that's, that's when I can just

picture in my mind, Jim Harbaugh, in that Raiders hat with Fields as his quarterback. All right, what do you got? What's your second take? One more thing on Fields real quick, because this was, I didn't get, I was going to have a take about this. I didn't have a take about this either. did you see the Peter King? He added this in the column where he said the Bears can get so much for the first overall pick that his expectation, he didn't say his expectation,

but he said, overall, I wouldn't be surprised if the Bears trade the first overall pick for a huge boon of picks and then presumably keep fields. I did not. No, I did not see that. So draft notes in Peter King's column, the Bears at 1 should be able to get a 22-like ransom for the pick

with so many good quarterbacks in the pool. I expect GM Ryan Poles to trade the pick, but it's too early to say that with certainty. That's what King wrote about that. Again, he didn't explicitly say anything about fields. I want to make things very clear. I almost wrote this in the column last night, and I deleted it. I wish I would kept it in.

Every single report that has the Bears are seriously considering keeping fields and training the first overall pick, I don't believe it. I will not believe it. This is like, you and I are very big on like putting up the fence posts during the offseason to me and like, all right, this is misinformation to you. This is what you're about to hear. It's not true. I'm christening the 2024 offseason with our first one.

I absolutely not. There's no chance that Ryan Poles gets a ring from any GM. They're like, hey, I'm interested in trading for fields. And he's like, well, we're probably moving off of the first overall picks or not. You're listening to every offer. There's no chance it's anywhere close. And so I think, I'll put the chance that bears on the fields next year at 6%. I think that he's very clearly gone.

And I think that the bears are going to try to acclude that to get a better price for him, and I'm here to cut through the smoke and tell you they're trading fields. I 100% agree. I will come up with something. I will be willing to do it if they keep Justin Fields and he's their starting quarterback in week one. I'm not telling you it's the easiest decision. I'm not telling you Justin Fields stinks.

I'm actually looking forward to watching Justin Fields at his next stop, wherever that's going to be. And hopefully it's a good situation because his highs are very high and he's a very entertaining player when things are working for him. It's just... the way organizations work, for the most part, you don't get three years of a guy like this and still not know and then pass up the possibility

of drafting a Caleb Williams or Drake May with the first overall pick. That just does not happen from how I see it. I've been wrong before, but I'm with you. I will not buy any of that. The bear's job right now is to create the possibility, the illusion, I should say, that they are willing to hold on to Justin Fields and trade out of the first pick.

They want to create a market for Justin Fields. They want to maximize value for whatever his value is in a trade. And that's what they're going to be doing from now until the draft. And then on day one of the draft with the first pick, they are going to draft a quarterback, number one overall. If I'm wrong about that, we'll replay this. I'll laugh at myself. We'll do something.

I'll run, I don't know. I'll run down the street in a Dick Buckkus jersey. I don't know. We'll come out with something that I have to do. But I feel very, I'm with you. You said 6% that, yeah, I was definitely saying under 10. I feel like I could even go lower. I think it might be under 5.

That's the percentage I put at them keeping Justin Fields. All right. Nice. So we're on the record with that. I was disappointed. You wrote the column where you said they got, I was sure we were going to be able to get more arguments out of this, but you had a very well-recent column where even you had Justin field.

Tell Metropolitan Chicago it was well-reason. It was not taken well. He had a well-recent column I read on the ringer where Solek is a Justin Fields fan but he was still saying they got a draft a quarterback. Anybody can check my credentials on fields.

I have believed in the man through thick and thin. It's time for the Bears to get new quarterback. All right. My second take. Wild card weekend coming up, Sheal. However, I want to give you the two biggest wild cards of this postseason. Wild cards here being

the team that I could see making and winning their conference championship game or also losing their first round game. These are the teams to me that they run hot, legit run, they run cold, they're gone in the first round and then questions abound kind of about the teams,

right? So I'm talking about the biggest leverage teams. NFC will start. The Detroit Lions, I think I have a chance to make a, I think the Detroit Lions are very clearly the second best team in the NFC wildcard picture. I shouldn't say the second best team.

What I'll say is this. I think that the Niners are clearly the best. I think the Eagles are clearly following. off. So you have Detroit and Dallas kind of in that conversation for the second best team. I'm telling you right now, okay, if we get Detroit Dallas in the divisional round and that game is back in Dallas, all right? Because that's where, if Detroit wins, they're walking around. They're playing in Dallas for division. That's set. That's where they were robbed Taylor Decker, dad skipper. I've been in the team's facility a

couple times. I'm writing a piece about them this week. I promise you, if they get Dallas, they are beating Dallas and Dallas. on everything. They want that game bad, okay? They're beating Dallas. They're going to the NFC championship game. So I shouldn't say they're the second best team, but I do think they're winning a Dallas rematch if they get it.

Now, I would put them in the NFC championship game. Now, Niners are clearly better team than the Lions, but one game is one game, right? This is how it goes in the NFL playoffs. It's a best of one. A lot of chaos can happen. This is not the sort of postseason where Chuck wins out, which is more common in your NBAs,

your MLBs, and your NHLs, where there's much larger series, there's one where a lot of chaos can happen. For Detroit to beat a team like the 49ers, they really need, I think, a surprisingly good defensive performance. But I would argue that, well, we doubted Detroit's defense

for a lot of October and November. They are better, I think, than a lot of public understanding is right now. They are not top 10 defense, all incredible, but Aline McNeil is back from injury. Johnson Gardner Johnson is back from injuries. They've had two key starters who have returned

for them over the last couple of weeks. Ify Melofonwu, who, dude, if you had told me in August, I was going to be talking about Ify Melifonio won on January podcast. Amy Melifonu, who was nearly like a camp cut for these guys, has really had the light come on. He's been a starter at safety. He's been a high-impact player. Sacks turnovers.

He's been impactful. This team is a lot more reliable defensively than they were in terms of their personnel. They are still a little bit lacking for stars. They are in a really bad place against wide receiver ones, right? So when they are going to struggle against their CD-Lams, they're going to struggle against your Debo's Hamils and your brand. They're going to give up there. There's no doubt about it.

Justin Jefferson just dropped 192 yards on this team. I'm not trying to claim they're going to like batten down the hatches. But we saw this team hang for four quarters against Dallas, right? And okay, they got a fumble out of the end zone became a touchback.

That's what it takes. It takes key moments, key defensive plays. And they have defensive playmakers. They have Aiden Hutchinson, who's a high pressure player. They have a female affrontu, Johnson Gardner Johnson. Those are good safeties who attack the football.

They have Brian Branch who attacks the football. They have the ability to create splash plays on defense. So they have enough to run hot. there. And get lucky in one game against the Niners, you're in a Super Bowl. Like, I think that they have that window. Now, hold on. I can't let that pass because I feel totally differently about this

lion's defense than you do. I like the Lions. I am terrified of this defense in the playoffs. I mean, just that as somebody who in our contest took the Lions minus three and that game against the Vikings, I'm like, all right, I got this. Oh, wait. Big completion of Justin Jefferson. All right, they scored again. I got this. Oh, wait. How is George? Gordon Addison running free down the field with no one near him for another touchdown. They just gave up 448 yards to Nick frickin Mullins and the Minnesota Vikings.

So I'm not telling, like, I'm with you. We should zoom out and look at larger samples. And I don't know where they finished in DVOA this year. I think it was middle of the pack. It was they were not like one of the worst defenses in the NFL. And you're right, they're getting healthier. You're right to call them a wildcard because you could tell me that the defense creates a couple turnovers, but my goodness, you could tell me and this will lead into whatever you're

going to say now, I think, that the Rams put up 520 yards against them this weekend, and they're out of the place. So I have massive concerns about their defense. All right, go ahead. And that's the thing is, as overall this team is 13th in defensive DVOA. I think, I think if you ask. That's better than most people with that, 100%. Especially how we talk about them, you'd assume they're in the 20s, right? They struggle against, like, Gino and they struggle against like Kevin O'Connell, right? And listen, I understand. The Niners are waiting. Like, that is the. royal boss of all of these offenses.

I'm just saying, I'm saying, I think the Lions path to the end of the NFC championship game is cleaner than people realize. I think they're winning a Dallas rematch. And once you're there, roll a couple dice and see what you can get, right? If the NICS championship game, just win it. It's four quarters, it's a tough game. Get lucky. Now, you got

the Rams a wild card weekend. Here's the thing about the Rams, shield. If you can't stop wide receiver ones, okay? You can't stop boundary receivers and Cooper Cup, Pook, and Akua and Matthew Stafford are coming to town, they have the potential to roast you alive, right? You, you you don't want to have to win three shootouts in a row, which is what you're going to have to do if defensively you can't hang.

And there's a good chance that they have to win three shootouts in a row. There's a chance they have to run hot for three weeks instead of just getting all that luck in that Niners game. They got the home field advantage. It's going to be an unbelievable environment. Matthew Stafford are coming back. The emotions are going to be extremely high. And I figure you're going to see the lion team come out and be successful.

But I also think that Sam LaPorte is not going to play. Right. And so you've lost your second primary target. I know Dan Campbell said he's got an outside shot. We'll no more in 48 hours. I'd be stunned. if he's able to turn it around at one week,

given the way that that knee injury seemed to be predicated, he just carted off the field. So I don't think you're getting on the border for this week. That's your second biggest target. Again, that's one of your primary stick movers,

third down, red zone. So now Amon Ross St. Brown has put the world in his back. And he's been doing this for a long time, but still, like, that is a huge ask for him. Okay, James and William's going to come back. Do you really trust James and Williams?

They are right for the plucking with the Rams, where the Rams can just go score for score with them, wait for Jared golf to make a mistake, wait to get a good run stop, get them in second and ten, third and ten, force me become a drop-back team, and then to start to pour points on them. So the Lions, to me, I can see them losing that Rams team.

I can see them getting a game against the Niners and making it for four quarters. I think they are the leverage team in the NFC. Fair? I thought you were going to go with another team, if I'm being honest. I thought you were going to go with the Rams in the NFC as a team that if they get hot, they can beat the Lion.

I mean, if they get hot, they can beat their offense. Who's playing better than them offensively right now? They're getting healthy at the right time. They've got all those weapons. They've got a quarterback with experience. They've got a coach with experience. So I actually thought, I think your choice of the Lions is fine. I agree.

Their defense scares me. And the Rams don't have a great defense. So their defense scares me as well. But when you started this exercise, I thought the team you were going to pick in the NFC with the Los Angeles Rams. So, and that's the thing is I think that arcs-wise and arrows-wise and late-season Jared golf, like, it feels that way. It's, oh, like, Matthew Stafford, like, here come the Rams.

Like, what a surprise. Metrics-wise, the Lions' offense is better, and they've been better recently, right? Now, like, you know. Doc was excellent in that game, by the way, against the bike. I mean, he is, yeah, when their offense is cooking. Performance-wise, the Lions are the Lions are absolutely can get hot. But, like, that's the same argument as the Lions, and the Lions have just been better for longer than the Rams have been. Rams have been dealing with more injury, though, offensively, right?

Which I do want to acknowledge. Rams are certainly, I just said they can beat the Lions and walk hard round, right? They're certainly squirrelly. So, okay, there's your NFC. I will say one of the other reasons I didn't take the Rams is because Sean McVeigh beat Kyle Shanahan on Sunday with Carson-Wens

versus Sam Donald and then he did beat him in the NFC championship game. Other than that, can't beat the guy, right? He's like, she's like two and eight against him and like one and eight were starting quarterbacks. I still think there's big brother or little brother there and I don't like picking McVeigh against Shanhan any day of the week. AFC.

Houston Texans. I, listen. Whoa. Whoa. Shocker. You can't tell me that you watched that that CJ Stroud performance late against the Colts and knowing that that is in the bag for this team you're going to feel good at any point four quarters playing them. I look at it and I think like the Cleveland Browns are very reasonable and response to this as well because of what they are defensively.

I think Cleveland absolutely is legit Cleveland has a great argument for this. I don't fault saying it's Cleveland at all. I totally get that. The thing for Houston for me is that I think Houston is a much better pressure team than people realize when they're fully healthy. and they expect to be getting John Grenard back at being able to play Grinard and Will Anderson and Jerry Hughes, have Malie Collins on the interior, have Sheldon Rangings on the interior. This is a good front that can generate pressure that can beat you with four.

And so they're efficient there. And then offensively, right, which they just had this incredible Nico Collins game. Okay, Tank Dell is hurt. When it is Stroud behind this healthy line, they have been a good passing team against every team they've played, except for the Carolina Panthers, which I refused to. explain. But if you go and you look at it's where it is, it is shroud behind the line, they are an unbelievably efficient and explosive offense. They are, they are moving the sticks reliably. They're pushing the ball down the field. They're connecting down the field. And really,

if you look at numbers wise, since they lost Tank Dell, it's hard to figure out because like after they lost Dell, they lost Brown for a bit and Schultz for a bit and Shroud for a bit. But in general, the offense is, it doesn't seem like it's hurting the tank Dell lost that badly. I think they're still already, are one of the most explosive passing offenses in the playoffs, AFC or NFC. I don't want to have to deal with that. I don't want to have to face that. We have Cleveland coming up.

Cleveland was, they were a three and a half point favorite over the Texans. We knew Case Keenham was going to play. There are two-point favorite right now when we know C.J. Strauss playing. Tell me, Stroudsworth one and a half points over Keenham? I don't know about it. I feel like he might have a little bit more. And this sort of a defense, right, is structurally the sort of defense that

C.J. Strauss has been very, very, very good. against, right? I think that a lot of the belief in Cleveland will be an upset team. I think that Houston matches up into them pretty nicely. I think they do quite a lot. So, okay, then you go to the divisional round and anybody can come out of any position here in the AFC. I'm not going to pretend to figure out, okay, this team goes to that team. You have Chiefs, dolphins is going to be a mess. I think Bill Steelers is going to be a mess. It seems like there might be like torrential wind and snow in that game. Super sick. Seals are going to win it six to three. Can't wait. So I'm not going to prognosate the other games.

But I don't see a defense in the A.I. FFC post season, that if the Texans get past the Browns, they'll then struggle to get past that defense. I think that like Spags presents different problems for them and the bills demons have been great down the stretch. But I think their biggest defensive challenges ahead of them. I think if they get past that, then they're in shootouts all the way home. Hello, Baltimore Ravens? What are we talking about? Okay.

I was going to learn about Baltimore. Week one, the Texans played Baltimore. Oh, come on. That is a long, a long time ago, right? Baltimore is a lot better than they were. offensively certainly a lot better than they were. Texans are a lot different of a team. I remember watching that Baltimore Texans games.

I was so excited to see what the new offense looked like. Todd Monkin and Mike McDonald in year two and everything. I remember walking away from that game being like, man, Houston played Baltimore a lot tighter than I thought they were. I agree. He said, Will Anderson gave him troubles off of the outside. And they had a good guy who covered. Petrie had a great game.

They had Denzel Perryman at that time. It's like injuries, everything is different. But I'll tell you, Houston's seen Baltimore before. And I think that game ended up like 25 to 9. Kind of out of 13, something like that. I didn't look big on the scoreboard. On the film, man, that was a close, a highly fought game. All right.

That game lives in the back of my mind. It has for a long time. Texans, I feel like they're the spoiler in the AFC. All right. So they would have to, yes, they would have to beat Cleveland at home. And in the most likely scenario there, right, if the other stuff is chalk and you don't know that it's going to be chalk, is that then they would then have to go to Baltimore in the divisional round.

I would not pick that. I don't think so. I would not have. I mean, they're going to be, they're going to be six and a half point dogs to Baltimore if they get that game. All right. It's going to be a big spread.

Yeah. I mean, I was looking at these games and trying to figure out, who am I going to pick this week. And I was leaning, I am leaning Browns in that game. Browns are now two and a half point favorites at Houston. And then,

but I was still, I'm like, God, I do not like being on the other side of C.J. Shroud in these games. I mean, he is just too good. He can.

pull plays out of nowhere. He's so accurate. He makes the right decisions. He pushes the ball down field. So I don't know where I'm going to end up on that game. So I would agree with you that it's not comfortable being on the other side of C.J. Stroud. I just feel like they don't have enough this year. And I feel like it's far, far, far more likely that they're out of there in the first round than that they're playing in the AFC championship game. But I could be wrong. What would the comp be? The comp would probably be maybe like Joe Burrow a couple years ago, right? It was like, yeah. Well, those Burrough Bengals, they had better defensive performances than people realized.

And then Burrow just clutched it up. Like, he didn't play amazing, but he clutched it up over and over and over again. And they had star receiver talent. Now, I don't think Nico Collins is Jamar Chase, but I do think, and I've been big on Nico Collins all year. This isn't a, oh, Benwatched the Colts game. Nico's been my boy. Nico's a headache, dude. That is a big, long, strong, fast man who loves contact.

I love him so much. All right. So I was not expecting you to say either of those teams. So good take by you. Yeah, you surprised. Like, you can predict all the fine. I think like, oh, the dolphins are going to be a spoiler. No, they're not.

Too, I can't play. Like, absolutely not. Like, oh, the package is going to be a spoiler. No, they're like 24 years old. No. Be careful. Have you learned nothing as an NFL content creator? You can't say Tua can't play and think you're going to get away with it.

Michelle, I've watched enough Tua. All right. We're doing TWA for the play sheet tomorrow. Trust me. Oh, my God. The Tua takes are coming. Be careful out there. All right.

I'll take a one more. break, get to our final takes. And then my extra point taken is actually a little bit in the vein of what you just had, but I've got some stuff on other teams. So we'll get to that as well. All right. My final take here, Ben, I'm looking at these 18 teams that did not make the playoffs. And I tried to put them into buckets of should their fan bases feel good or should their

fan bases not feel good. I came up with seven teams where I think, all right, your team didn't make. make the playoffs. You're kind of, you know, you're mad, you're sad that you don't get to watch them play football anymore until September, but you should be feeling pretty good about your team as you go into the off-season. So I'm going to give you those seven teams. I want you to tell me if you disagree with any with me that their fans should feel good. And then I'm going to give you the teams that I left out and you tell me to know, shield, that team, uh, they should also feel good. Are you ready? Hey, me. You get the exercise. It wasn't too confusing, right?

Yeah, I'm with it. Okay. Cincinnati Bengals. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, my case for them was simple. You found a good backup. Their coaching staff did a very good job.

I mean, with Jake Brown. I was going to say the way you get worried is if Brian Callahan leaves. He's getting interviewed for this Panther shop now. That's true, too. Coaching-wise, is the most impressed I've been by their offensive coaching staff in a bit. I agree. They go nine and eight. You get burrow back.

You're contending for a Super Bowl next year. Fix that defense. Yes. Indianapolis cults. I know you're going to be a yes. You're a big stiking head. Stuyken does a nice job. You get Anthony Richardson back next year.

You're overachieve this year. You're feeling good. You're not feeling good right now because of the way that game ended on Saturday night, but you're still feeling good overall. Number three, the team we talked about, Las Vegas Raiders. You got rid of Josh McDaniels. It was terrible having to root for a team coached by Josh McDaniels because the players did not enjoy it.

You did not enjoy it. He had some fun games to watch down the stretch. Could have been much worse. Now you figure out what's happening going forward. Raiders, yes? Yeah, absolutely. Okay. Minnesota Vikings, we talked about them before.

You knew they were going to come back down to Earth this year, got killed by the Kirk Cousins injury, didn't go great, but I think you're still feeling pretty good about Kevin O'Connell after, you know, they did some things with backup quarterbacks. They didn't fall apart. They were competitive. You got Brian Flores coaching the defense. They came back down to Earth, but he's shown he can be creative and find solutions,

even when he doesn't have the talent. Jordan Addison looks like a good pick there, had an excellent rookie season. Minnesota Vikings, you with me? Absolutely. If the Vikings hold on to Flores and get anything decent at quarterback with Kirk kind of probably even free agency

off the Achilles, I'll be picking them to make the playoffs next year. I'm very impressed with Kevin O'Connell. I'm very impressed with Brian Flores. I think talent-wise, like obviously, Justin coming off major injury, like that is what it is. But like Jordan Addison,

I thought was impressive. I thought Ty Chandler was impressive. Defensively, it was blown away. Josh Mattelis and Ivan Pace, they hit on some dudes. Vikings are going to be good. Good offensive tackle situation. Yeah, there's a lot to like there in Minnesota.

Next one, I think you're also going to be in agreement with me. Chicago Bears, legit, good team. Second half of the season. I mean, Bears fans, you haven't had a lot to root for. That was a fun second half of the season. You got the top overall pick coming. Defense has a lot of fun young players. DJ Moore looked excellent.

That trade worked out. Iber Fluse finally showed you a little something in his second season. So Chicago Bears is a yes. All right, two more. Washington Commanders. I mean, come on. A new owner. You've been waiting for a new owner for decades, and now you got the new owner.

I could say nothing else in the Washington commanders qualify, but I made the case last week. They're in a great spot for a rebuilt. New owner, number two pick. They lock that in, as we discussed last week. You're going to get a new coach. You're going to get a new GM. You're going to have a clean path towards a young quarterback. You've got some talent on the roster.

Commanders, things are looking up. And the last one, Arizona Cardinals, competitive team. I was completely wrong. Listen, I thought they were going to be a train wreck, a laughing stock. I thought they were going to be one of the worst teams we've seen in the long time. That was not the case. They were a competitive team. I think they really found something with their OC, Drew Petzig.

I mean, their offense had some real nice moments earlier in the season. And then down the stretch, Johnny Gans. I got to get, listen, that fake field goal was a big of beauty. I mean, that's the thing. I don't understand how it worked. I got to find it on the L. 22. Me neither. That was a beautiful fake field goal.

they've got a lot to figure out but you had a nice start to your new era here with Johnny Gans and you can stick with Kyler Murray and he played some of his better football I thought here down the stretch so those are my seven did you disagree with any of those? No I liked all of those

I'm trying to look at the other teams here I'm going to read them to you yeah and I don't think you missed on a one I really don't okay Jaguars oh god can't feel good Broncos no yeah no Jets.

I mean, oh, God, some, I'm so sorry. Mrs. Solek. Mama Solac, there's, Jets fans. I'm so sorry.

I would say like there's stuff to like, but the problem is it's the same stuff to like from two years ago. So you can't feel good about it anymore. You're counting on Natty Hackett being back in Aaron Rogers in his age 41 season. Tennessee Titans. Who knows? We could be talking about Mike Fable going somewhere. Levis looks like he might be a thing,

which is nice. But, yeah, your coaching staff might be weird. It's a moment. Chargers. can't feel you can't feel good about the way that is wasting Justin Herbert's rookie contractor. Oh my God. Patriots no.

Seahawks, no. You underachief. Saints, I mean, it's like the season played out exactly how it was supposed to play out. 9 and 8, don't make the playoffs. And Dennis Allen is getting cursed at as James Winston's giving a weird press conference.

The worst part of yesterday, from a betting perspective, was that so many people in the offseason took the Saints win total over. they were like, Derek Carr's going to be good, and this team's going to be good. And I was like, absolutely not. What are you talking about? And I was like, I can't wait for all these people to get their just comeuppance. And now the Saints are 9 and 8 and all the wind total overs cash, even though they're not actually good.

8.5? Was it 8 and a half? It was 8.5? It was 8 half early. It jumped to 9 and a night. Well, congratulations to everyone who had those Saints tickets. Atlanta Falcons, no. I mean, come on. You were expecting to compete this year. We don't need to talk anymore. Giants, you're coming off a playoff season. And this is the season you have. And then the Panthers. I mean, your owner is an embarrassment. So, yeah, I don't think any of those fan bases feel good. I think the seven I mentioned earlier, you feel good about this offseason.

The rest of you, go ahead and yell about your teams, rip your teams, the coaches, the GMs, the quarterbacks, everyone else, and hope for better days ahead. So there you go. That's why I break down the 18 teams that saw their season's ending. All right, you're with me. All right, what do you got? What's your final take? All right. Two-parter.

One. a team will trade up into the top 10 of the 2024 NFL draft to select a quarterback. Two, it will be one of the three following teams. One, the Minnesota Vikings right now are picking at 11 overall. I think they have a good shot to trade up and go get a guy. I think that they ran the full gamut on some of their developmental bridge pieces this season and very clearly didn't like what they saw, given that they went from Josh Jobs,

Jared Hall to Josh Jobs and Nick Mullins to Jared Hall to Nick Mullins. I'm pretty sure I have that order, correct. Team-wise right now, draft capital, they moved a third for a fourth as part of the Hawkinson deal. They have a little bit less of 2024 capital than you typically do, but they don't have any future picks leverage into anything. The general manager is Questio, Opho Menza, who's a heavy analytics guy.

And typically, this is like an all-in move, and a lot of draftics of the quarterback position, a lot of eggs in one basket, not really the approach of the analytics community. With that said, there's always a... Although, his mentor, or he were Andrew Barry, and look at what they did for Deshaun Watson. And there's a Howie Roseman quote that lives in my head.

He gave it after the Eagles went to the Super Bowl with Wenz in 2017. He was talking about Wharton, I think, where he was like, there are some moves you just have to make. Like, there's some realities that you, you know, oh, like, analytics, everything. Eventually, at some point you got to trade picks

to go get a guy. Like, there's some, there's some pillars that don't get moved. And so I do think that the Vikings have a chance here. The other reason is because, you know, you got a star receiver and Justin Jefferson. You got to get that young man a quarterback, right? You got to like, hey, we're going to, you know, you're going to produce 1,700-yard seasons, and you're going to be a star-wide receiver.

I'm not saying, like, oh, Justin's leaving the Vikings tomorrow. I don't want to present like that. But you don't want to have this caliber of a receiver and be screwing around at the quarterback position. Jordan Addison looks like a nice hit, in my opinion. You spent big money on T. T.J. Hawkinson, I think, Kevin O'Connell has shown you he got the goods. There's one piece left to this puzzle.

And I think you know that because you saw what Kirk was doing this year. You can confidently say if we get quarterback right, we can kick and rip it. And so to me, Vikings at 11 are a good chance to trade up for a quarterback. Next up, the Denver Broncos at 12. I don't endorse this decision. But I get, I feel like this is going to be very seriously considered. Whenever the head coach gets the reins of the front office, which I think is happening very clearly in Denver,

you can expect more aggressive decisions, right? Head coaches don't care about fourth round picks. They, like, do if it's all they've got in the Sean McVeigh life and they're like, this is the only thing I get to spend any time on. But in general, they don't want, oh, let's make nine picks. They don't want to do that. They want to attack, right? They want to spend capital now to build a good team now because the coach is evaluated

on whether or not the team wins now. The general manager is about whether or not the team is healthy later, wins later. But the coach is about right now. And so if you're Sean Payton and you're like, listen, I got. to make this, this, this teamwork, right? I want to compete. I hated watching Russell Wilson last year. That was terrible.

I'm getting a new quarterback in this building. I don't care about a hoot about 2026 draft picks. We're going for it. And that's the thing is, obviously, the Broncos made that Russell Wilson trade. But right now, they're not, it's not like they have, oh, future first round picks tied up in that move, right? They have all their firsts. They don't have their second this year because they traded it to the New Orleans Saints

to get Champaign. But altogether, it's not like they're like still suffering with draft capital losses from that trade. They traded players, and they traded a few picks, and they've already gotten through all of that. And so, I think the Broncos at 12 are a decent candidate in that regard. The final team that I would say has a chance of trading up in the top 10 to go get

a quarterback are the Seattle Seahawks, who currently pick at 16. Now, the Seahawks drafted Russell Wilson in the third round, and they got a win with them, but they got a huge hit, unbelievable hit the best possible hit you can get. The Seahawks, then when he left, had Gino Smith on a

backup's contract, and they got a hit with him, and they gave him a big deal and rightfully. So the C-Oaks have not had to trade-up to go get a top quarterback. John Schneider is not a trade-up guy at all. They don't have a second round pick this year because they sent it to the Giants with Leonard Williams. They do have two-thirds. This is very out of character.

There's no like, oh, because of this, then that, whatever. I think this is more shot in the dark gut feeling that there's anything else. But if Pete Carroll and John Schneider feel any semblance of heat on their jobs, which I don't know if they do or not, but I don't think it'd be outside of the realm of possibility for them to feel some heat. you could see them prioritizing the establishment of a future out quarterback after Geno Smith's contract just to give themselves something to hitch their wagons due for the next few years, right? Not to say, oh, we paid Genos, the expectations we're competing right now in the NFC,

but more so to say, hey, we paid Geno because we thought we could compete in the NFC, but also we're investing in the future. So it's not like all of our eggs are in the geno basket. We still have like a 2026 vision and a 2027 vision. I think that would be an understandable career move for the brain trust of John Snyder. and Pete Carroll. 16 to 10 to go get the third best quarterback. It's not the craziest thing in the world, right?

I've seen like the Alex Smith, Patrick Mahomes kind of comparison used, right, as a framework for this. I think that's set in the bar way too high. I don't think Patrick Mahomes simply makes it to 12, right? Like, that's like, you can't go swinging on the fences for that. I think that was a once-in-a-lifetime thing. But I do think that if this quarterback class gets really

oversaturated at the top, which can be very possible, right? and like, let's say, QB1, 2, and 3 all go through in the first five picks, I see Seattle getting itchy on making sure they have a future guy, maybe a future guy who's played in the Pacific Northwest for a couple of years. I don't think it's outside their own possibility. So, Vikings, Broncos, and Seahawks. I think somebody's making a trade up into the top 10 to go get a quarterback between now and April 24th, 25th.

Whatever the draft starts. All right, so here's my question as somebody who has not jumped into draft stuff quite yet. And a reminder, we are recording this. before the national championship game. But when you said trade up to the top 10, like one and two, I mean, I don't think anyone's even call it. Like, you're not getting those,

I don't think you're getting those picks. No shot. No shot. Caleb Williams, Drake May, in whatever order it's going to be, it's going to be one and two. So after that, we're talking Jaden Daniels and Michael Pennix,

correct? That'd be my expectation. I think Bonix is going to see his name flit around that conversation, but I think it's going to be those two guys. Okay. So you think, like when you said Vikings at 11, my head was going, I started having visions of Michael Pennock just being there at 11, them drafting him and him throwing bombs to Justin Jefferson next year and us getting really excited on week one of extra point taken. So do you feel like to get a like, like where do you basically acknowledging that you have the right to change your mind in the next three months when you do 400 hours of draft content?

as of right now, January 8th, where are you thinking a team would have to get to to draft Jaden Daniels or Michael Pennings? I think the Jane and Daniels conversation is going to start at three overall. Okay.

With the New England Patriots. I think that there's a legitimate shot for that. Conversation is going to start. I don't think we might get to March and we know for a fact it's not happening, but I think it's going to start there. I also think that the Giants at 6 aren't going to rule out quarterback.

It doesn't make sense for them too, firstly, like over the course of the next few months of smoke screening. And then also, like, an actual team perspective, it also makes sense for them to think about it as well. And then Atlanta at 8 is the team that I'm circling going, I want to get in front of that Falcons team to make sure I can go get potentially QB3. I think your Jane and Daniels range is going to be somewhere from like three to eight, three to ten. I think Panics range is going to be more so like eight to 16, you know, nine to 16. The one thing I would say is that as a general rule,

if you are drafting a quarterback in the top 15 or so picks, you have traded up to go get that guy or you've earned the first overall pick, right? Well, it's kind of like after one and two. Typically, if you are drafting a dude somewhere between like four and 15, there's exceptions, Daniel Jones, Mac Jones. You have traded up to go get that selection. So, like, if we are to argue a quarterback will be taken, QB3 will be taken from four to 10,

then just numbers-wise, it's likely the team that did it trade it up for that pick. And I do think with the Chargers at five, who the Chargers, like, if they stay in draft Marvin Harrison's sick, the Chargers at five and the Titans at seven, even the Bears at nine, And there's already a few candidates of like, oh, like those teams, yeah, training back makes a lot of sense for those guys. And so I think it's going to be a movement heavy group because I think the quarterback kind of Western showdown between a lot of teams after two overall.

I think there's going to be some big stare down, some big smoke screen season, some big, if they do this, then we do that. You're going to see a lot of movement and there's a lot of rumor mongering. I think everybody's QB2 is going to be a debate. I think QB3 is going to be a debate. QB4 is going to be a debate. And you can see some movement accordingly. So I'm in for an active draft season.

There you go. Yeah, Vikings obviously have to make a decision, whether it's Kirk Cousins or doing something else or drafting somebody. The Broncos are just like the ultimate wildcard. What are they going to do, given their situation? And I do feel like the, I mean, the Seahawks, if Anthony Richardson fell to them last year, I mean, you know, I don't know. I sort of feel like they would have taken Anthony Richardson in that spot. So the way they structured that Gino contract was very smart in that they could, like, they're not taking any pain if they, sort of draft over him or, you know, they could even have this guy sit for a year if they felt

like he wasn't ready. So I think that is another good one. All right. Extra point taken. Here's what we're finishing with. I'm stealing your bit. So like, you had a good bit, you know, you just do three things. Give me like, I like the three things. Oh, no, this is my bit. How do you? Listen, it's the show's bit. And so I'm going with it. I won't use it every time, but I had to use it this time because you and I have to turn in some predictions. It's a reminder to you on behalf of our editors. We got to turn in our pre-off predictions by tomorrow for the ringer.com. You know, fun staff post. You see who everybody's picking to get to the Super Bowl. I have not turned mine in yet. I have not, you know, given strong thought to mine yet. I'm going to need to do so

in the next 12 to 16 hours, let's say. So there's a few thoughts I'm chewing on. And so I'm giving you three. And I want you to rank, as you have me rank, which one you're most on board with, Two, which one you're least on board with. All right, here we go. Number one, the Buffalo Bills win the Super Bowl. The most absurd team of all time just, you know, out there. Shout, by the way, Sheel Capadia, the lone man, the John Snow and the Battle of the Bastards. I will not give up on the Buffalo Bills.

And shout out me, not endorsing that take, but being present the whole time and not saying no. That was also, it was good. Great work, She'll also been on the wing, on the coach. Tales. Shout out, Ben. All right. So, number one is Buffalo Bills win the Super Bowl. Number two, a team other than the San Francisco 49ers comes out of the NFC. So I'm giving you the feel. Cowboys, Lions, I'm not even going to say Eagles, Rams, Packers, whoever you want there comes out of the NFC. That's number two.

And number three, the Cleveland Browns are playing in the AFC championship. So they, you know, you mentioned the Texans path, same path for the brinkers. rounds. They would need to beat the Texans and then most likely they would need to go to Baltimore. Joe Flacko going to back home, M&T Bank Stadium and beats the Baltimore Ravens and the Browns are your surprise team of the 20, 23, 24 playoffs and they get to the AFC championship. So there you go. Those are the three. Bills win the Super Bowl. A team other than the Niners comes out of the NFC. Browns playing in the ASE championship. Give me. your ranks of which takes your most on board with to least on board with,

help with my thought exercise as I get my predictions ready for the ringer.com. I think the Niners not winning the NFC is the most likely. Really? The Niners are so good. The Niners are great. They're excellent. They're the best team of the NFC. I don't trust their quarterback.

All right? I don't trust Brock. Man, you're just, you're letting it all rip to a two of, bro. you're saying like, oh, you're letting it all rip. Everyone knows I've had these takes for years. You've been letting it. Yeah. Here comes Ben with us.

No, I've been very clear about how I football. Brock's a good player, right? I don't trust him in a postseason environment. I don't trust him against top defenses. I've been there on Brock since the beginning. So I don't trust him. I know, you know, Niners fans listening to be like, Kyle Channing and choke artists.

I don't think that's 100% true. You know, everybody loves to bandy around the stat. Oh, Kyle doesn't win these games for his team is losing in the fourth quarter. News slash, like most coaches don't lose. don't win most games, but their team is losing in the fourth quarter. Like, that tends to get over-estated that Kyle Shannon kind of chokes these games. With that said, not a lot of postseason success for Kyle, and I do think that's meaningful. I do think that, you know, that shadow can live over the top of your head.

And like I said, it's a best of one. And when it's the best of one, like the chaos, like the Niners only have to play two games and not three to make to the Super Bowl. I acknowledge that. But the chaos, I think, is something that goes understated in these playoffs. And so I think that's the most likely. I would say Bills to win the Super Bowl. That was the take, right? Win.

Yeah, see, yeah, that one's less likely than I was one. Win the Super Bowl is hard, man. They got to win four games in a row, all right? Something about the Bills, I think, like, listen, this Bill's run has been amazing. It's been so cool to watch. Again, shout to the Shield for predicting it, whatever. You don't know a little dirty little secret that we're not talking about with this Bill's run?

It took the off-sides against Cadarius Tony to beat the Chiefs. They worked on Dallas. Gudos to that. They beat the Chargers by two took a game winning drives to beat East and Stick, all right? They beat the Bailey Zappy Patriots at home by six and then it took a punt return to beat the dolphins, all right?

They have not been dunking on cats. They've been hitting fade away long twos. The bills are very, very good, but it's not like they're fully fledged. Come on, like they're amazing. It's been shaky even on the winning streak. One of the most high variance teams I can remember.

Like I said, they're either winning the Super Bowl or they're losing in the dumbest imaginable way where they have like 700 yards of offense, but they score like 14 points.

I honestly think it was good for them to experience the three turnover Allen game against the Dolphins and still win because that way when Allen has two first half turnovers in the divisional round, you're like,

ah, we just meet the dolphins. We just beat the dolphins two weeks ago. We're okay. At least like that I think is the Browns. I think

I think the rug is going to come out for the Browns a little bit. I'm in the postseason. I just think, like, Flacco has just been living off of play action and deep shots. I said it's on a pod a few weeks ago. I understand that Flacko has always lived on play action and deep shots, but the game plans get more bespoke. Whenever you get to the playoffs, they always do. They get more curated for you.

I think you're going to see a team defensively put the Browns in a really tight spot where, like, they're rushing attack with their offensive tackle injuries with the running with no Nick Chub. Like, I don't think they can matriculate the ball as well as they'd like to. and if you're not successful in the intermediate shots and the deep shots, I think you can get the Browns to a real low-scoring place, real tough place offensively, and then it's just a matter of can you survive against this defense. And there's enough good offense in the NFC, I think they can. So that's my order for those three.

There you go. All right, I'm going to chew on that as I prepare my predictions for the ringer.com. All right. We're going to have Nora and Stephen with dual threat coming up next on the feed. And then Solek and I will be back on Friday. We'll be talking more. in depth about these matchups, these games, our picks, everything else for a massive wild card weekend. So thank you to Solek. Thank you to Christopher Sutton for producing. Thank you to

Eduardo Ocampo for the video production, additional production supervision by Connor and Evans and Arjuna Ramgopal. We will talk to you Friday. Thanks for listening and have a great week. Must be 21 plus and present in select states. Fandwell is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC. Gambling problem. Call 100 gambler or visit fandle.com slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee, Vermont, and Virginia. Call 100 Next Step or text next step to 533442 in Arizona. 1-88-78-9-777 or visit cccg.org slash chat in Connecticut.

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