The Ringer NFL Show - Big Picks, Props, and Predictions Heading Into Super Bowl LVIII | Extra Point Taken

Episode Date: February 8, 2024

Sheil and Ben join forces on Radio Row at Super Bowl LVIII and start their conversation by analyzing the greatness of Patrick Mahomes and the 49ers’ incredible luck with elite personnel. They then dive into their favorite props, official predictions, final picks, and much more. The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please check out theringer.com/RG to find out more, or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Hosts: Sheil Kapadia and Ben Solak Associate Producer: Chris Sutton Video Production: Cory McConnell and Ronak Nair Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to Extra Point Take A Chill Capati here with Ben Solak, our last preview pod of the season. One more game. We've got the contest going on. We'll talk about our picks, our long shots, our props, and what we're looking for in this game. Because, I mean, you don't know that by now. I mean, no one's talked about that. That's differentiating ourselves. The Super Bowl, we're going to talk about what we're watching.

Benny Sol's how we doing? Oh, we're doing well. This pods up on YouTube, right? Full episode going on the ring. YouTube and I realized that ringer NFL ringer NFL yes thank you and I realized that I did my little usual celebration at the beginning and no one's ever seen it and now they'll see it for the first time officially I start every pod but waving my arms like a child legitimately 100% of the pods yeah with me with anyone else it's your trademark yes you very much uh enjoy doing that so all right

then where do we start here let's start with our headliners now obviously there's one game we don't have to pick the game, but like, what interest you? What is the big? It could be scheme, X's and O's matchup, big picture, whatever. What is your headliner for this game? The thing that I keep coming back to is that this is the, this was the season the Chiefs were supposed to lose. This was the offense that was supposed to not be good enough. This was supposed to be the year that the luck ran out and that, you know, Mahomes' ceiling was hit and Andy's ceiling was hit and Travis Kelsey was old and there were going to be questions. We're going to have to reload and have to reconsider philosophy. And if the chiefs win this, like,

as I've said on this pot before, I have no interest in doing Brady, Baholmes, goat talk, and I refuse to do it. I will do it when they're both old and they're both done. You'll do it in 30 seconds when I get to my take. Excellent. But what a win in this game would signify for the chiefs and I think for the rest of the league is like, all right, it's all just silver metal races from here on now. It's all just, we're all, everybody's building to be second place

and to maybe have a shot of getting an Eli Manning running into Patriots, right like the the uh the chiefs have felt like they're going to be the most dominant force but it was last offseason that we were doing like is joe burrow more clutch than patrick mahomes it was two off seasons ago we were doing like is Patrick malmns really better than josh allen like we have been engaging with like oh what if there really is like a one b what if there really is a true contender if they beat these niners these niners are so freaking good unbelievably talented so loaded incredible coach and if they have the season that they did and just decide to kick things into second year for the playoffs, win four games, two of them on the road, one of them on a neutral site,

one of the best runs by DVOA in Super Bowl winner history, right? If you look at DVOA, if the Chiefs win the Super Bowl, they will have the toughest run to a Super Bowl championship that anyone's ever had. That's wild. This is supposed to be the bad team. Yeah. They're going to get better after this year. They're going to have better weapons.

Like, this is supposed to be the beatable Chiefs team. So if they win, I don't know what we're supposed to do about that for the next four months of the offseason. Yeah, I have legacies of Patrick Mahomes and Kyle Shan. as my big headliner. So let's just talk about Mahomes. Now, I know you don't like the, but, okay, so I, I'm anti, you know, QB wins and rings and all that. But when you get to like the best of the best conversations, I'm talking about 20 years from now when people are having that Mahomes and Brady conversation. The titles do matter. And Tom Brady got his third ring age 27 season.

This is Patrick Mahomes, is age 28 season. And to your point, I'm just looking at it like, with this supporting cast, with this version of the Chiefs against these opponents in the playoffs, like if he does this, I mean, I remember, this is before your time, when Michael Jordan came back from baseball,

I did have a 45 Jordan baseball t-shirt as a kid, by the way. I wish I had that. I could have worn that right here. Anyway, when he came back, I remember as a kid, I was probably 12, 13, whatever the year was,

remember being like, I want to watch like every Michael Jordan game. Like, I need to appreciate every moment because this guy is, like, even at a young you're like, this is incredible to watch this guy. And that's kind of how it is with Mahomes. Like, I'm so excited to watch this guy prime of his career, healthy in this spot where he's an underdog

where his team shouldn't even be here. Like this could be a moment for Mahomes we're talking about for years to come in his career. And it's the experience of watching Mahomes that to me, like the goat conversation cheapens that. I don't want to be watching Mahomes and be like, all right, if he doesn't get a touchdown on this, drive and so then it's the fourth quarter and then he gets a touch on on that drive

then it'll be a fourth quarter comeback and that'll strengthen his goat conversation like that that's that's why like the whole like goat like you brought up oh age 27 third ring age 28 third ring I don't give a hoot about what age they got their third ring in I want to watch the guy and should be like holy smokes like I just want to watch the dude to be like I don't care if he's not the greatest in this moment viscerally he is the greatest thing that there's ever been And I don't want to be thinking about the ramifications of if he does it in this way, in this category against these people. I just want to watch him, be like, yo, that throw is sick. And then he does another one.

I'm like, hey, that throw was sick. Like, that's all I want is just to have the lived experience, right? You remember when LeBron broke the scoring record and everybody who made a big deal of like, everybody's got their phones out and they're taking pictures of it? You remember that whole drama? I don't care if you have your phone out or not, but I'm a no phone guy. I'm like, just watch it. Just enjoy it and live it, and that's it. What are you trying to roll reversal or something?

You're a non-foot. What are you going to be? You're anti-twit. You don't like to tweet. You don't like social media. What are the other? I'm supposed to be the old crotchety guy. And now you're saying, put your phones down?

This is incredible. I just saw you literally search, what was it? Depressed Twitter reaction? I was asking so, like, how we got a tweet off with an image so fast, the Sixers-related tweet, and he showed me his computer, and he's like, you search depressed Twitter reaction. And now you want people to put their phones down. Yeah.

Well, first I was, I was, I was, I was, The Sixers traded Jaden Springer. I was depressed. I felt like the little cat in the corner. I was sad and I wanted a picture of like my sadness. I, you, like,

I am only the young guy in this pod because you are so prochity. On most pods, I am the more prochity of the attendees. All right. I'm trying to figure out how to take that. I'm not going to respond right now. Okay. So that's my home.

The other guy I mentioned was Kyle Shanahan. And we touched on this in our last pod so we don't need to go too long on it. But this guy, who's just been such a, we know he's a great coach. We know what he's been chasing. He's been asked like every day about the Super Bowl losses that he's had. He's only 44 years old. So it's like, he should have other opportunities to win Super Bowls.

But like, who knows better than Kyle Shanahan that nothing is guaranteed? And that's to have Trent Williams and Debo Samuel and George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey. And did I miss anyone? Brandon Ayuk. John Jennings. Ray Ray MacLeod. All healthy. Charlie Werner.

Elijah Mitchell. All right. Stop, please stop. All healthy for this game. In most seasons, you're not going to have all those key players healthy. I'm talking about just on offense. I know they lost two Fonga on defense, but they've been a relatively healthy team this year. And like to get to this point, it's hard to get to this point. He knows that.

And then to have a chance to win it, like if he loses, it's not the end of the world. Like, he'll have other operative. But still, he knows how hard it is to get to this point. So that's the other guy I've got my eye on. Like, I can't even imagine what his face is going to be like if he, if he wins or if he loses. Like if he wins, he's probably going on an all-time bender. And if he loses, I was just thinking, like,

I would not want to be someone around Kyle Shanahan for the rest. Basically from now until this time next year. That's not going to be like a nice experience for his assistant coaches, for his friends, for his, whoever. Right. Because he's just going to be in such a tough place. Yeah. So much of the good reporting that's been done this week,

Seth Vigashim of ESPN, Kaelin Caller for the Athletic, has been about just like the really, like rabid and terrifying intensity of Kyle Shanahan as he's on these runs. Like we're talking about cameras in meeting rooms so you can watch back everything and hear back everything that happens. We're talking to, he said on the Wickersham piece, I torture myself about all of this. So I should be torturing my assistance about all this. Yeah, you said that earlier this week.

That's the quote from like the availability this week that like stuck in my head. Yeah, exactly. Holy cow. Torture is a strong word, baby. That's a big word. Kyle beats himself up about this. I don't think he knows a different way to do it. And so it beats himself about a week, seven game,

but then in the Super Bowl, obviously, it's magnified. It's expanded. My Monday morning headline as we transition is, yeah, it's, where do the 49ers go from here? Because I think they lose. And when they lose, I think they're 0-2 in Super Bowls. I think they've been to four of the five last NFC championship games. That's right.

And I think that they've got nothing to show for it. No hardware. And this is, again, very important. The Niners right now are on their extra life. Like, like, it's very, it's so easy to forget that this team traded multiple first round picks for Trey Lance. Because that should have been washed away. He's not even around. We can't even ask him question about it.

He's gone. He got him out of that. When you trade multiple first round picks for a quarterback, right? Firstly, let's actually start from basics. When you draft the quarterback top 15 and he misses, if you look historically, at least the head coach of that team is fired if not the head coach of the general manager. The second you draft the guy top 15, if he doesn't work, he doesn't win games, you are typically fired. If you trade up for the guy and you draft him top 15, like nine out of ten times you are fired, right, if he doesn't work out.

What never happens is the head coach and the GM are retained and the team attends the Super Bowl with a different quarterback. That does not happen. This is extra life. They found a plus one, immortality, bulletproof, golden child, we can do whatever. They have survived a thing you don't survive. So if they lose this game, There's nowhere like to go.

Debo, Brandon, I, George, Kendall, Christian McCaffrey. It doesn't get better than that. Right. Kyle Shanahan calling plays. It doesn't get better than that. Defensively, it's been better than this, right? Like this is the worst Niners Devens.

We've seen it a while. But the reason is because they're on their extra life. They should have like collapsed three years ago. They should have fallen apart. They've been stringing it along and stringing it along, clinging it along, attending on late round picks, trying to keep this entire unit together, running the same system.

So you can just win a freaking Super Bowl. And then they can get younger and let them contracts going, whatever. Like, this, there is no, if the Niners lose this game, there's no, like, oh, well, it's okay, go get a second edge rusher to pair with Nick Bosa, go get another corner and just be back. Like, like, sure, like that might be academically true, but it certainly doesn't feel that way. It feels like, holy smokes, they are never going to get over the hum. So a Niners lost to me, like the Monday morning headline coming off it is like, okay, like,

if this didn't work, freaking what's going to work? I don't think I agree with that. I mean, it's coming, now I've got to go back to being the, you know, the nerd here. But it's coming down, like, they have had you said nothing to show for it. Like, all you can do is try to be in the mix every year and then hope one way, one season, the ball bounces your way. You are rings culture pointing to your ring here. I'm glad we have the video pod. But it's like, like they might lose 27, 24 on the last second field goal.

And that doesn't, like, that just might be how it goes. And then they run it back next year. you make a few tweaks around the edges. You hope to get guys healthy again. But the reason they were able to do what you said and Trey Lance didn't work out is because the head coach is a special head coach who just, until we see otherwise, we should assume they're going to have a top five, top eight offense year in and year out.

And I know that's not really sometimes you get killed with injuries, but like that is his special ability. He is a be more with less offensive coach in the NFL right now, probably in my opinion. As I'm saying that, I'm wondering if I'm missing anybody. but like Andy Reid is a great offensive coach but like when you have that quarterback it's a different story. There are other coaches

who could get to the Super Bowl with Patrick Mahomes. Not to say Reed doesn't elevate him. He obviously does. But what Shanahan is doing like I don't know that how many coaches you could name where you would feel this good about a team with Brock Purdy and this like just coming in taking over being this good so fast.

And again we can't like underrate how good this offense it wasn't just like a good Shanahan often. This was like for Shanahan standards has been an elite Shanahan offensive. I think it will feel like that, maybe in the 24 hours after, but I don't know if I'm a Niners fan. Once the dust settles, I'll be annoyed.

I'll be like wasted opportunity. But when we're talking about this in August, we'll probably be saying the 49ers are among the favorites in the NFC once again. So I view their window as a little. It's kind of like maybe like those Eagles teams with Donovan McNabb and Andy Reid. Now those teams never did win a ring.

However, but like that's what you do. You keep knocking on the door, knocking on the door, and then hope one year, it goes your way. Like other teams, you know, the Ravens, like, haven't even been able to get to this point. The bills with Josh Allen haven't even been able to get to this point. And so they've been in that mix over and over again. Yes, but it is easier to not get to this point and then say, okay, well, now we very clearly understand what we need to do versus to be the 49ers.

Like you brought up like, this is the best Niners offense, right? By EPA per play by like metrics that we've had, right? Going back since 2012, which just has fast, like, click down while you were talking. This is the second best offense in the true media database by success rate. So if you lose your soothing thing, you're like, what do we do better? Like, what do we improve on? I was like, oh, just be the best in the last decade. Like, second best one's going on, just go be the best, right?

That's the problem is, like, this is the best Shanahan office in 15 in five years. They've already made the quarterback change after the Jimmy loss. There's nowhere to go. But like, okay, well, let's just continue to be the best offense, which is not a thing you could just be here. year over year. That's impossible. You can't do it. You can't sustain it. And that's why, like, I would agree with you if this were like year three of Shanahan dominance. If this were like Brock was the initial quarterback. They're on their second quarterback. They have developed

Brandon Iyuk. They went and got Trent Williams. They traded for Christian McCaffrey. They reimagined and reinvented the team off the 2019 loss to make this offense better. This was what it was supposed to look like final image minus the whole trail lands to Brock Purdy thing. If this doesn't work, well, you sit down with John Lynch and you go, okay. So, And extend Brandon Iyuk and Debo Samuels is your order And George Cato's are your order But if we go, we draft this guy in the second round And then we go and do this

You just, you reach an end of a rope Where like you can't even trick yourself into believing Yeah, we can like make meaningful, measurable improvements That don't make us better as a team To increase our chance with the Super Bowl It's not this is it because you're right They can just be back here next year But it becomes harder and harder to believe

This is their bad, this feels like their best chance I would agree with that. We might be looking five years from now And saying, 2023 with their best chance With that talent that health. That's my thing is like you I would agree with that.

You brought up like your summary summary on the Niners was this is the best offense in the league unbelievable cadre of weapons defense. They've had some injuries but they're largely healthy. This is a great team.

They're a dangerous team. They should win the Super Bowl. How likely are we to be saying that in 2026, two years from now? It's just stability in the league doesn't exist. You don't maintain, especially if you're not winning championships

because when you're in championships you feel good. So you want to maintain. When you're not winning, it breaks a little bit. It puts tension on you a little bit. That's true. I would agree with that.

They're stressed on these Niners. So if they lose, I'm fascinated to see what direction they try to head. And if they're able to kind of keep this thing all roped together and hung together, a Niners loss creates a really interesting environment there. Niners win, Chiefs loss, like, ho-hung. Niners deserve it. Chiefs have been championships, whatever. A Niners loss is an interesting thing.

I think this might have been the first time in our podcast history. I think you might have convinced me of your point. Yeah. Yeah. In person, right? You can't just sit back there behind your desk, tune me out, Google a couple of stats. That's, I got enrapture, the narrative. Yeah, that was a nice job by you.

Yeah, as you were speaking, I'm like, yeah, no, I think these are things I generally believe in. So it is going to be harder. It's kind of, it's that middle. It's like they will have chances, but they may not ever have a chance that's as good as this one. All right. Let's take a break. We will come back. No break.

We're not taking a break. No breaks today. I was joking. I got you. How did you know with the hand wave, man? Listen, come on. I'm a veteran. I am a broadcast professional.

Okay. Let's get to the contest. We're going to talk about our props of the week, our long shots of the week, our pick for this game. So, like, where are we after, what has it been, 17, 18, 19, how many weeks have there been 21? Is that right? 18, regular season? Yeah, this would be week 22.

After the regular season, I was up 58, 54. Going into conference championship round shield was very close. It was a difference of two points. And then conference round, man. You choked it. unfortunately. Story of my life. A tough conference championship round.

Sheel and I both have the Ravens covering against the Chiefs. Missed on that one. We both had the Lions covering against the Niners. Hit on that one. She'll missed on everything else. 100 plus receiving yards for Brandon Ike on the long shot. And even got that fluky 53 yarder. I thought that was going to be a sign.

275 passing yards for Brock Purdy, no go. 26-naff rushing yards. Patrick Mahomes. The cheat code. Mahomes rushing. Didn't even cash for you. I was under 86 and a half rushing yards from a cap. He was under it until the final run to set up the game winning touchdown.

He had that big 26-yard run, finished with 90 yards. Zayflower's big receiving day, 60 plus receiving yards. And I had over 44-napp rushing yards for Dave Montgomery as well. I put up five points on the day. You put up one point on the day. It is now 68 to 62 going into the Super Bowl. So it is still mathematically possible if I miss on everything and you hit on everything in our seven-point contest, you to take the lead.

Otherwise, it's a photo finish only if we're... get that seven to a week. All right. So there's seven points available. You're up by six. So there you go. I would have to go seven and O and O. And you would have to go O for seven for me to win. I would have to beat you by six for a tie. And then I don't know what we do. We'll figure that out. If that occurs, everything else I lose. Listen, I'm much more comfortable in this spot. I'm a very mentally fragile person. When the pressure gets higher, I choke over and over again. And so this is good for me. Nothing's expected to me. I make my picks. I'm not expected to win. The pressure's on you. This would be an all-time choke job.

If you lose here. This means mathematically, you have to take the opposite side of me. That's correct. That's correct. On the game. Is that fair? You can if you want that you're trying to win. I know that you and I both think. Yeah, no, for the contest sake, I'm going to have to take the other side.

Yes, okay. Yeah, I'll explain that when we get to it. What do you got some chips there? Are those actual chips? No. Okay. Yes? Oh, yeah, they were just on the table.

Oh, okay. I thought you were playing around. I don't know. I thought you were gambling yourself. Yeah, I don't know. Okay. Okay, let's get to it. The, uh, we start off with,

our prop of the week. This is any prop for the game, minus 130 or better. What do you have, Benjamin Solek? This is worth one point. Yep. I mean, like, Super Bowl, you want to take sexy props. You might want to take. We want to take fun one.

Oh, big points. I know. I felt like mine were a little too boring. But what are you going to do? I'm taking Noah Gray to have over 10. And a half receiving yards. Why? Noah Gray is the second tight end for the Kansas City Chiefs.

For those who don't know, the Chiefs ramp up their multi-tight-end sets in the postseason. They've done this two seasons in a row now. So no great snap count has been jumping over the last several weeks. And then they use him in the play action passing game, right? 10 and a half receiving yards, it's really going to be one reception for him. If you look at total routes run, I hit 18 routes against Baltimore, two targets, eight receptions, 13 routes against Buffalo, three targets, 16 receptions. 13 routes against the dolphin, one target, one reception 20 yards. He gets on the field more. They're, they've kind of moved away from the wide receiver set.

They moved away from Miko Harmon, Kedarees Tony. They update the sky more, whatever. Richard James, they go two tight end and two wide receiver a lot. They go three tight end and one receiver a lot. So, no gray is on the field a ton. They go play action with them. No great receptions have always been a good look for the chiefs when they're against a playoff opponent,

when they're against a really good opponent. They tend to go heavy personnel against those teams. Second quarter, 837 left. No great play action picks up 13 yards. I can sleep easy, no one at worst I'm tying. Say you learn from me. When you're making the Super Bowl prediction, you'd be very specific

because on the off chance that it hits Brandon Graham's trips at I'm ready That is a sexy one I resent you saying you did that That's a fun one I mean who's gonna you would never Who would take that

Now you just watch Now I'm gonna be watching Noah Gray Every snap and hoping he drops It's so funny to me like Because like for you you're like Who would take that For me and like the people that Like you know betting people that I work with

I've taken Noah Gray in like six The last nine weeks I take Noah Gray all the time I love Noah Gray So for me that's a common one There you go Um, DeMarcus Ware just walked by Ben Solac.

I mean, he, he, he looked, he looked, he looks like he could still play. I mean, listen, that guy's in good shape.

That guy's not missing a workout. I'll tell you that much. Love DeMarcus, all right. Great player. Great player. Like such a, like a fun,

that's my kind of edge rusher. Populized a spin move. Yeah, fantastic. See, like a great guy, right? Well, liked by all his teammates. We'll bring him on.

So how you're doing, DeMarcus. We'll bring him on. All right, DeMarcus, all right. my prop is going to be Patrick Mahomes to have a higher completion percentage than Brock Purdy. You loved these.

The Fandall extra pops, you are running through these. You're having a great time with them. That is minus 120. I do have reasoning for this. Okay, this isn't just like a basic bat where I just, you know, scroll down and said, what am I choosing here? There was a reason for this. So, so far this season, Brock Purdy, 608.3 is his completion percentage.

Patrick Mahomes, 67.3%. However, the chance. Chiefs pass defense, I would say, stickier in coverage, going to play more, man. They have allowed opponents to complete 60.5% of their passes, whereas the Niners, more zone heavy, they'll give up some completions. They're allowing 65.5% completion. So you get the edge with the defense Mahomes is going against. I guess the defense Purdy is going up against. And this is just one of my big takes on the game that could be completely wrong that you've heard me say roughly 27 times this week, but I just think it's going to be long methodical drives.

don't think there's going to be a bunch of explosive plays in this game. This is the way the chiefs have generally played. This is the way the 49ers allow you to play zone coverage, rush for. And so I think that style of play with the 49ers may be given up some of those completions, rallying and tackling, the chiefs being a little bit more aggressive in their coverages. I think there's going to be a very high completion percentage game for Patrick Mahomes, maybe even in the 70s here. So I'm not saying Brock Purdy is going to complete 50% of his passes. He's generally pretty high, pretty up there. But I think Mahomes is going to have a high.

I like Mahomes with all the like completions, completion percent. Like not necessarily the yardage, but the efficiency stats more than the explosive stats. So that's why I'm taking Mahomes completion percentage. This season and the postseason, Patrick Mahomes, inaccurate pass rate, 6%. Ludicrous number. Brock Purdy, 20%. Really? That inaccurate pass rate for 30%?

Yep, absolutely. How is that calculated? Do we know the mechanics behind that? It's charted. So it's pretty binary. Yes, no. Like, obviously, there's stuff at the fringes that's, that's difficult to parse. In general, though, Brock's been missing this postseason, and Mahomes has been on it.

And the explosive play rate is a big deal. Chiefs, the best defense, explosive pass rate surrender this year, 49 are fourth best. These defenses are extremely disparate. They do radically different things. They line up in different ways. They prioritize different stuff. There's one thing that both teams do. They do not let you beat them over the top.

So I agree. It is going to be 13 play drives. It is going to be 14 play drives. I very much think we're in for like a boring game. I'm not exciting. Don't turn the pot off. But I wouldn't be surprised at this thing. That's not boring, though.

Long methodical drive. Like that at Rams Patriot Super Bowl that all the hipsters tried to tell me it was actually good. That was actually a boring game. Name one person who told you. This was a long time ago. There were absolutely people at that time being like, I know people don't like this,

but oh, this is a defensive masterpiece. Give me this any day of the week. Get out of here. That was a snoo's fan. As someone who treasures that game, learned a ton about football in that game. See, so it was you. Oh, my, you let me do it.

No, I will not. As someone who, it's like, I'm starting with a prepositional phrase. Very clearly, it's going to be a following clause. As someone who treasures that game, learned a lot about football in that game, enjoyed the reports and the narratives after that game. You didn't enjoy watching it live.

Enjoy watching it on film afterwards. No, you did not enjoy that either. Okay. I think it's going to be boring. Wait, wait, 23 to 9. We got to do, what, long shot? Yeah, yeah. That's not your actual.

score pick, is it? I think I submitted, yeah, I think 23 to 10 is what I submitted. 10? Yeah. You think the 49ers are scoring 10 points in this game? I mean, I think it's more like... I mean, we're not there yet, but holy cow! I think it's more likely they score more than that, but it's, you don't put a prediction

out. Again, you're using my... Last year, I didn't even realize this last year until I went to put in my new prediction for the ringers, you know, staff predictions. Last year, I predicted Chiefs win. Patrick Holmes MVP, 34 to 31. And it was 30 and 35. Oh.

I was close. I feel pretty good about that. And the guy says he's an Eagles fan. All right. Next up, long shot of the week, Solek. This has to be plus 150 or more. This is the one you have to hit. I was on a roll.

Then you jinx me. Oh, she'll so good at these. Shield's hitting me. And since then, I can't hit any of them. So I don't want to hear you saying anything. All right. What's your long shot? I can't get my computer to unlock.

Okay. I'll go first. It's Isaiah Pacheco to have at least 80 rushing yards plus 152. Okay. Pacheco is my biggest exposure on the week in terms of player props. So I've got money on Pacheco to go from 60 yards, 70, 80, 90, 100. I'm to score one, dashed down. touchdowns, the first touchdown. This 49ers run defense is not good. It is period bad.

Like there's no ways around this. There's two ways to beat them. One is to get to the edge, right, and take advantage of these explosive, upfield aggressive edge rushers. You saw the Packers do this a lot in their early drives, wide receivers blocking Nick Bosa, pinpole, right? Toss that ball, get it to the boundary with Aaron Jones. Then against Detroit, right? You saw them working, okay, interior, you know, double teams, right? The Niners are going to give you a four-down front. You just get double team, push it to the linebackers. Make Fred Warner and Drake Greenlock close fast. Make them plug those gaps. And then what do you hit them with? Well, Jameson Williams reversed 42 yards, right?

So you can get downhill on them with double teams and then you can get to the boundary on them. I watched a ton of cheese still over the last couple of weeks. I watched almost every single game that Chiefs played on offense this year. The number one thing I walked away with is that we dramatically underrate how good Isaiah Pacheco is at running the football. This is one of the best pure runners of the ball, put the ball in his chest and let him go that we've got in the league. He played unbelievable when he was healthy this season. Got banged up, missed some time. But at the beginning of the season at the end of the season, man, am I impressed with how

consistently he wins after contact? He finds 30 yards. He is very rarely wrong behind the line of scrimmage. This is the player that I think is the difference maker for the chiefs in this game. They want to run the football. They want to keep explosive 49ers team on the sideline. They want to take the air out of that pass rush, protect their offensive tackles. They want to stay in second and six, third and three.

they want methodical drives. Pacheco's the key, right? Obviously, like Patrick Mahomes and high completion percentage and RPO's, but I think Isaiah Pacheco is in for an enormous, enormous day. So 80 plus rushing yards at plus 150. This Niners run defense is without question the worst unit that will be on the field on Sunday. I'm fading them. I'm taking Pacheco to go big.

All right. I'm going to the other running back for the San Francisco 49ers. Christian McCaffrey 80-plus rushing yards combined with Chiefs adjusted line plus four and a half. See what you've done to me in the finale? This is what I'm doing. That is plus 164. So I like this because this sort of covers me,

multiple outcomes here. Chiefs win or a relatively close loss. I think I had the stat in my column this week. Patrick Mahomes, there's been like four games in his career that he's lost by more than eight points. Like just that is my favorite trait in a team is that like consistent competitiveness.

The Seahawks had that streak with Pete Carroll. It was like a hundred something games where they were either leading or within one score in the fourth quarter. That's my version of how many titles do you have? If you're just doing that, like, listen, you're going to get good luck or bad luck, but man, you are consistently in it. So I don't see a blowout either way in this game. You sound like you do a little bit more than I do. But I think Chiefs win- Define blowout.

Ten points or more? I can see the Chiefs winning by like 11 to 14. Okay. I would be stunned if we get a win by like, 24 plus by either team. I would be astonished. Yeah, I would agree with that. So I think Chiefs win or relatively close loss. And I think McCaffrey is going to have a nice game. I mean, you said the 49ers run defense is by far the worst unit in this game. 49ers fans are probably listening to that Chiefs run defense is not great either. I mean, we forget two weeks ago, the bills had like one of the

most efficient rushing games of the entire season against that Chief's defense. Now, I know their run game is different and they get Josh Allen. involved, but I think Shanahan is just going to look at that and going, we can, like, run all over this defensive front. So I will say Spags is one of the defensive coordinators, who's a big, like, if they beat, like, they'll go up against a team that's got a really great quarterback. And he goes, if they beat us in the running game, like, I don't care. Right.

They take away this quarterback. It was very interesting. Stephen Ruiz brought us to my attention. Last year, when Spags played the Niners, right, 22 to the regular season, they were just coming off play in the Ravens. And they were talking about, like, oh, you got to deal with an elite quarterback. And, like, how do you, you know, go up against the nineers? that offense and whatever.

And the Ravens ran the ball all over them. And Spags asked about it and he said, like, listen, we had to lose to the running game a little bit. And then they asked about the Niners, and he was like, no, like against a team like this, you got to stop the run. The run is foundational to the team. And so the Chiefs' run defense isn't great overall.

They are willing to lose to it at times. When they decide to play up against it, I think they're a lot better. I think they put the bodies up there and they play fast into it. So I'm on McCaffrey rushing overs, but I do think that, like, there's a difference for me

between the Chiefs run defense, which is a lot of like voluntary losses relative to the Niners run defense where they have no answers. That's why like I have the disparity there for Niners. Yeah, I think that's fair and it will be interesting to see what he does. I mean, against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, he was willing to commit resources to the run and take his chances on the outside and Ravens didn't end up running the ball that much in that game. We know Shanahan is going to run the ball regardless. We know he's not going to be afraid about box count or anything like that. You've got to be able to run the ball regardless. So I've got McCaffrey. 80 plus rushing yards, chiefs plus four and a half.

I feel like there's no real game script that's going to take me completely out of that. So that is my long shot of the week. All right. Before we get to our pick, do you have a nonsense prediction for the Super Bowl? What do you got? What's something weird that's going to happen in the game this weekend, outside of the game, in Vegas? What do you got? I think we're getting a streaker.

Just one? Is that just one? What do you mean just one? How dare you? I just predict. going to streak her at the Super Bowl and you say just one. It's so weird because this is like on my final list of three things that

I was going to predict and I didn't choose it. Here's the thing. There's too many things that people are upset about in this game from like Taylor Swift and all the obsession like oh why is he I started on the TV to like there's legitimate people actually upset about Taylor's like real people but like the made up

people you know. And then down to like there's like an election coming up and there's serious geopolitical There's a lot going on. I was going to go, are people really concerned about you? People can't work down these days about geopolitical issues? Elections, what? There's a lot going on.

People are mad. I think people are going to try to get on the field and they're trying to run around. So do you think there's going to be like a message? Like somebody's going to have something painted on there? That's not always a message. You're right. I don't know. I think like I think someone's getting on the field, chaining themselves to a post, right,

gluing themselves to something. You know, whatever. in protest. I'm rooting for a striker because then security takes them out. And that's always a good time. Form tackle, right, closing space,

track the near hand. Well, listen, what's better than security taking them out? Player taking them out. Or like a team, like a random team,

like trainer. Oh, yeah? Assistant coach, just the most jacked person on the... Who's just built like this can't fit through doorways.

Oh, this has to happen. Please let's this happen. Yes. I, listen, as someone who like the halftime show is never really for me I don't really understand who's performing

and what they're doing. My halftime experience, my entertainment outside of the game is fans doing nonsense stuff. So for me, I would like for someone to make a bad decision and get put in jail for my entertainment and go jump on the field during the game.

So lack promoting bad fan behavior. I mean, it'll be tough with like the security of a Super Bowl. I don't know. Has there been a streak around at a Super Bowl? It's hard because you've got to get down close enough to get in the field. Those tickets are very expensive. Anybody who's down there and not wasting it. So it's check.

challenging, but I'm going to get to stadium early. I'm going to be watching, see if people are scoping it out. Yeah, at the same time, it could be someone who's on like a 72-hour bender and they bought the tickets before and they don't know what they're doing. And all of a sudden, one can only hope. They're getting taken out by some strength and conditioning coach. All right. Mine's not that different, but well, it is different.

Only one, he said. Oh, my goodness. I think a media member makes a headline for some type of Vegas-related high-tracks. Okay, right from top five who it might be by name and by outlet. Go. I don't want to go too much further into detail, but listen, the final media availability is later today

than people, we're doing a show tomorrow. People are doing stuff tomorrow, but then as a meet, then you get some downtime. So if you're like me, I'm playing a little golf Saturday afternoon. That's what I like to do.

That's going to be fun. I have zero things planned for Saturday afternoon. You have zero things planned. Other people have different things planned. Whatever they want to get into in Vegas, that's, you know, up to them. I don't judge, but I don't know if it'll be a TV person,

a writer, a podcaster, or whoever it will be. I don't know what the details will be again. I don't want to, you know, it might be a slip. Maybe it'll be something good. Maybe it'll make a headline for something good. I don't know. They win $10,000 at a slot machine.

I don't know. Is that possible? Yeah. Okay. Maybe it'll be something else. Listen, I'm not predicting anyone's career is going to get ruined. It's not going to be something that, that serious. But there will be something that creates a buzz and makes a little bit of a headline.

Hopefully, not no one at the ringer, of course, maybe like a rival of the ringer. I don't know exactly. We'll have to do our top five rivals down the ringer. down the road, but maybe a rival of the ringer. Ah, the athletic. He's looking over there. All right, so that's our nonsense prediction. All right.

Back to the contest. So here's how we got to do it. We obviously only have one lock of the week. So we'll do our lock of the week. And then we're going to do two other bets, anything minus 130 or better. And that will get us to seven points. So, like, start us off with your game pick. As we know, again, I'm going to have to go to the opposite side.

Yeah. What do you got? You and I both like the Chiefs. I'm taking the Chiefs plus two and a half. You've been on the Niners. I'll be honest, I was more confident in Chiefs plus two and a half on Monday as I've spent time here throughout the week, as I've heard the teams talk as I've done more, more look into the game.

I've leaned myself a little bit more towards the Niners side. I still like Chiefs Plus Two and a half. I love Mahomes as an underdog. I think they match up well. I think that Spags has a good sort of defensively advantage of Purdy. I think Purdy's been rattledable over the last two weeks. I think that they can hit him a lot and they can get them to speed up that internal clock. They're a really good tackling team. The Niners are a really good yak team. I think that

we always talk about like like, oh, schemes and football, X's and O's, you get to the postseason about tackling. And the Chiefs tackle so well. I like the way that it's been particularly the Chief's defense matched up to the Niners offense. So I like the Chiefs. The Kyle of it all, the Shanahan of it all, the urgency of it, the elite nature of this offense, I could see them come out and just like, like Kyle spent two weeks doing nothing but just like winning the game on the chalkboard. And they come out unbelievably. on offense, just unstoppable, just every down, and third down this, and designs

and counter punches, and they're just successful and whatever, like, I won't be surprised by a Niners win at all. I think this was quite close. Like, last year I picked the Chiefs be the Eagles. I would have been really surprised with the Eagles won that game. Really? Yeah, I just thought the Chiefs just, we talked about this. We were here the other last year.

I remember what our podcasts were like last year. I don't remember what you said, like, one segment ago. Who are you picking? I like the Chief Plus 2 and a half. If the Niners, if the Niners win, congrats. There's so many reasons for that team to win. I think it's going to be a close one. I do like the cheese with the points.

You think it would be a close one? Didn't you just say your prediction was 23 to 9? What is your official prediction for what the score is going to be and what the game is? The written one is. All right. So that's your official. Or 23 to 10 is what I know. All right.

So you think it's going to be a 13 point win for the cheese. Absolutely. It's going to be a close game. All right. Now, 23 to 10 can very easily be 16 to 10 for most of the game. So is that well? Okay. So that's what you think is going to happen.

Okay. So it's a close game. And the Chiefs pull away with a touchdown at the end. This is one of our great conflicts, our great frictions. I'm a probabilistic thinker, right? It's like betting and it's like outcomes. And so for me, like, it's ranges of outcomes. I don't think one thing is going to happen.

I think it's likely that this thing happens. It's also a little bit less like it's so possible that that thing happens. The whole concept of our podcasts are to have takes and make picks. You can't have a wide range of outcomes. You got to go on the record. We all understand you think that. We all understand. You don't know what's going to happen before you have to go on the record with a pick of what you think is going to,

what you think it's going to be. That way, either you get credit. You with the blue line down here. First of all, check the ringer.com, much better than that. 39% telling me the yellow line, 58%. I'm a volume shooter. I'm a volume shooter. How to predict games.

I'm a volume shooter. That's you down there telling me of you. Google, Shield Capadia, Brandon Graham, Super Bowl. And I rest my case. Okay. All right. So Solac is predicting a close game. Chiefs pull away at the end, 23 to 10.

That's what I've got you on the record with. All right. Take offense. that probable. I'm a probable. How do you pronounce it? Probabilistic. Probabilistic. Okay, it's hard to say. But yeah, I like a probabilistic. Everything I do is a probabilistic, but sometimes you got to have a take. I'm going to go back and listen to old pause where you hedged. You're like, it could be this or could be that. Exactly. I do it, but then it comes time to make the pick. So now having said that, I'm making two different

picks with this game. All right. So my official pick, I'm going to make this very clear. Because I don't like when people go on one piece of media and make one pick and then do another one and make another pick. So that is not what I'm doing here. My official pick, I'm with Solek. I've got Chiefs plus two and a half. I've got Chiefs 24, 23. The bottom line here for me is that 49ers defense and I'm really trying to avoid the recency bias, but I can't get their performance against Jared Goff, Jordan Love, and those run games out of my head. They've looked terrible. They've looked like a terrible defense in the playoffs and now they're going up against Patrick Rick and Mahomes and Andy Reid after two weeks. So that to me is the difference in this game.

We talked about it earlier in the week. I just don't think they're going to be able to come up with answers in two weeks because their answers are generally pass rush, play better, control the game better. And like, I don't know that that's going to work in this game. So I'm actually more bullish on the Niners overall offense than you are. Like, I think they could light up this Chief's defense. I don't know that it's going to happen. But I think it's going to be a back and forth game.

I like Mahomes and the Chiefs get the ball with, let's say, 90 seconds left, drive down the field, Harrison Butker, 41-yard field goal. Chiefs win 24, 23. in game. We're going to get a fun game. How am I the pot? What is going on here? I'm Team Sunshine all of a sudden. Look what you've done to me. All right. So that's my pick for this game. Before we get to our

other picks, let me tell you about Fandual. Football fans. Van Duel has the perfect way for everyone to get in on the Super Bowl. 58 action with a no sweat same game parlay. You heard mine earlier. Christian McCaffrey over rushing yards and then adjusted line with the Chiefs plus

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states gambling problem called 1,800 gambler or visit the ringer.com slash RG. Minimum three-leg parlay required refund issued as non-mithrable bonus bets, which expires seven days after receipt. Max refund $5 on this otherwise specified. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fandle.com. All right, Solac, we each have two more bets to make for the contest. What do you got? Isaiah Pacheco to score a touchdown. Every I tell you, Pacheco, my goodness. The Chiefs have been a little bit poor in the red zone over recent games.

They also have done the most foolish red zone chicanery, top one Andy Reed nonsense. Mekyll Harmon jet touch into a fumble at the half-yard line and Kedareas Tony this way and shovel option that way. And, you know, that's something they had in the Super Bowl with the Niners. They had the little emmary lines in the backfill. Everybody does a spin. A little Rose Bowl to play, right?

Yeah, exactly. And so Andy's known for this, and I'm certain he'll have something right. We remember, of course, against the Eagles in last year's Super Bowl, they were like, hey, like, we can just send a guy in motion and send him back. Yeah, I don't think it's going to be that easy this year. So Andy, I acknowledge that Andy's designs Super Bowl-wise, like he's going to come with some foolish stuff. However, the 49ers run defense is push off the volleyball.

They win within the trenches. They're an excellent short-yardage rushing team. Pichekles an excellent short-yardage back. And like I said, I expect him to be a high-volume player. To me, the recent red zone struggles of the chiefs aren't going to make Andy Turtle. They're not going to make him, you know, scrap all of the pitchy, pitchy woo-woo nonsense design plays. But I do think that you're going to see when they get into the red and specifically into the low red. They're going to be oriented on hand in the football.

This is not, this is really, really, really not the game for turnovers, not the game for wasted points. This is the Super Bowl. So I think you're going to see a high-volume Pacheco in the backfield. I also think it can still spring one, right? Bichko has scored actually quite often from 10 plus 15 plus out. He scored as a pass catcher a couple times this year. So you're getting more than just the goal line carries. I think it's such a high volume game for him that minus 25 for a touchdown is nice and

implied odds. Chiefs Red Zone is always so fun because when it works, you're just like, that was amazing. And when it doesn't work, you're like, what were you doing? It's the number one like results oriented analysis thing, right? Where it's just every time it works, you're like, of course, that's incredible. And every time it doesn't, you're like, yeah, no, of course that wouldn't work. Why would Andy ever think that that would work? You give Andy read extra time.

Like, yeah, he's not going to get sick. simpler, but that's not a bad one. They will have opportunities down there. 49ers, third lowest rushing success rate in the red zone this year as a defense, which they're the fourth lowest by rushing success rate in the whole field anyway. But it's not like when the areas get condensed, they get better. They get worse. I've got one, and I'm just, you know, expected value, who cares?

This is plus 106. Oh! But I'm going with the one I talked about on East Coast Bias yesterday with you. Total first downs in this game over. 41 and a half. This might be my favorite bet for the Super Bowl. We've been saying it over and over again. Long methodical drives, both teams. I think that's what we're going to see. I think both teams are going to be able to run the ball. Chiefs have allowed the fewest plays of 20 plus yards. You mentioned the explosive play rate earlier. But in the regular season, I mean, that surprised me when the playoffs started. The fewest plays of 20 plus yards in the NFL this year allowed the Kansas City Chiefs. And on the other side, we just know this isn't an explosive chief's offense.

So efficiency game, not an explosive game. I'm just leaning into that all the way. Now, it's going to be 38, 35 bombs away, 25 plus yard completions. But that's what I'm going here. So I also think it's going to be a close game. So ended the game. If you're close, maybe you steal a few first downs and you get over that number, 41 and a half combined first downs.

Why are you shaking your head? Because it's going to be such a fun one to track. I'm just envisioning sitting next to you in the box. And I'm waiting for Isaiah Pichenko touchdown, right? That happens on one play. I'm waiting for Noah Gray over. 10 out receiving yards. It happens on one play. You were just going to be sitting there going right. That's number eight.

Okay, that's number nine. That's number two. Updating the ESPN stack card, adding them together. Okay, eight plus nine. Yeah, 17. That's a fun one to track throughout the game. We like those. And then I'm going to be asking you if you think Patrick Mahomes is the goat yet after every possession. No, don't do that. I do. I do. And no results tomorrow will really sway me out of the direction. It'll be a boring question for you. Super Bowl doesn't matter, says Ben Solich. Okay. Wins are not a team staff. Wins are not a quarterback.

What's your last one? What do you got? So figuring out who the 49ers are throwing the football to has been one of the most interesting things. This is very tough. Yeah. So part of it is because the chiefs are a really interesting defense. The chiefs lead the league in split field coverages, right? They play middle of the field open, two deep safeties, more than any defense in the league. Most of those teams are zone teams.

And most of the teams that are single high teams are going to be cover three, cover one teams. So you're going to get a lot of man coverage. The chiefs are top five in man coverage rate. This is a team that will play a lot of split field and play a lot of man coverage. They walk up and they press. and then they rotate and they get into really weird stuff. They'll send their blitzes, rotate a single high, and then they'll end up in man coverage again.

They'll end up in fire zones. Like the numbers here are very tricky. And for the 49ers, who gets targets against which coverage is very clear. Debo Samuel, 3.2 yards per route run this season against zone coverage, 0.7 against man coverage. Just from next-gen stats, it is the biggest difference, the biggest delta

in yards per route run by zone and by man of any receiver in the league. Brandon Ayuk and George Kittle are the, recipients of the vacated yards, right? They are both significantly higher yards per outrun against man coverage and they are against zone coverage. The problem is, when you look at middle field open numbers, Debo Samuel's the guy. Brandon and I, you and George Keil don't succeed as much.

And so the typical way that I handicap receiving props, which is to do with coverage shells and with man's own coverage, really tricky for this game. The prop I landed on is Debo Samuel over four and a half receptions. Oh, okay. Debo tends to be the player that the Niners and Calhashanan prioritize first activating in their key games. I was Christian McCaffrey. But then they'll look at Debo handoffs. He's at 16 and a half rushing yards.

A huge number. He'll get him the ball behind the line of scrimmage, quick screens. We'll get him the ball underneath. Debo's the player they think can be like the tone center for them, the chess piece for them, kind of the ace up their sleeve. Like I said, he's low yards per route run against man coverage. But he still is decently high target share against man coverage. You will still get targets. And the Chiefs are a great tackling team,

and Debo's all a yak guy. So if LaGeriya Sneed gets him down, if Justin Reed gets him down, it might not be a big yardage day for Debo. Is that 58 and a half yards? I still would be surprised if they don't get enough target to Debo that five receptions should be reasonable.

Remember, a lot of these targets are going to be at or near line of scrimmage. So I don't need like eight targets to get five catches. I need like six. Little jet sweep. Yeah, that counts as a catch if he tosses it. And for me, expecting a game script

who the Chiefs have a lead. Close game. The Chiefs have a lead. should be a little bit pass happier for the 49ers, get Debo the ball quickly, kind of try to create him, let him create in space, let him bring yardage for you.

And so, Deepa over 4-napperception, minus 122. That's what I'm taking. I needed at least one-niners receiving prop. I had to feel like I figured out something, and that's what I felt like I figured out. It was hard because,

yeah, I was not, like, I think a bad strategy would not be to, like, or would be to, like, go under receiving yards on, like,

three of their wide receivers, and, like, two of them will hit. Because it is hard to figure out who's going to be under, Like, I like the unders in the 49ers passing game, but it's hard to figure out who to just put my stamp on. This is going to be the guy who's not going to get. So here's a really interesting question.

Like, I played this game mentally with myself to kind of like figure out how I felt. I tell you one of the three Niners pass catchers, Kiddle, Debo, O, and Ayuk, goes for over 100 yards. Which one is it? I was actually thinking, because you were right. Kittle and Ayuk against man coverage, both have over 400 yards this season. This is via True Media and PFF. Debo Samuel 131.

Yeah. So you would say, all right, if you think the chiefs are going to be more man heavy, then those would be the guys. But then I'm like, I'm with you,

like Debo in a big game, healthy early on. Right. They're just, they're not going to forget about Debo Samuel. And I do like those chiefs corner. So I'm like, there's kind of,

I think I would just, hmm, I don't know, over a hundred. Say over a three. One of the three gets it. Who is it? Say it on three.

One, two, three. I, kiddle. So really interesting. that from next gen stats. Kittle. We should just do the whole podcast like that.

That was fun. That was the most fun thing I've done in Vegas so far. We were like laughing earlier about stuff. I don't know. Listen. That got me pumped. Kittle this year, 471 receiving yards against the Blitz,

127 more than the next closest tight end. He has been a big blitz outlet for them. They'll get him on an intermediate breaking route, running away from a tight end, running away from a safety. And when they hit him and hit him in stride, he can beat that tackle, and then there's open space.

I think if any Niners pass catcher pops off like crazy, I think it's Kittle. I've looked at Kittle MVP. I probably won't take it, but I do think if someone has an astronomical day, it's short. Do you think Spags is going to blitz a lot in this game? Because it's something I've been thinking about. I don't think he is. I think, oh. I think it's under their season average in blitz rate.

So here's the tricky thing. I think if you get the standard, typical Niners offense, I think he blitzes a ton. I think the Niners are going to walk out in some of the heaviest freaking person. I don't think Kyle Ushchuk's going to leave the field, dude. I think they're going to be under center a ton of ton. They're going to be tight ends into the formation. Charlie Werner's going to get snaps, and Usticks are going to get a ton of snaps. And they're going to try to put the chiefs in a position where they can't blitz.

Because the threat of a heavy power run is so present that if you call it wrong blitzing or wrong run, it's a Christian McCaffrey's 75-yard touchdown. If I were, if I got a call from Kyle on Friday, it's like, Ben, what do I need to do? You know, in this game. Like, Kyle, you should hit me up earlier. We could have talked. The thing I would say is, like, you have to be able to run spags out of blitzes. because the number one thing that, like, Brock pretty against the blitz right now.

If you look data-wise, oh, he's unbelievable. He's top five in EPA. He's top buying success rate in yards. But a lot of those numbers are wrong. They're janky because they're counting five-down defensive linemen all rushing as a blitz. That's not a blitz. When you look at four down fronts where there was at least a fifth rusher, Brock is a negative EPA per play, right?

He has like 14th in yards per attempt. When he's actually blitz, not like these dummy numbers, he's actually blitzed. He's not been great. He gets, he gets, the clock speeds up. He doesn't like getting hit. He makes bad decisions. Ask the four, ask the Ravens how it went.

So to me, if I'm spags, all in, I'm begging for third and six. I can win third and six. Niners have to run the football to get him out of those splits, looks. All right.

So since I could not decide on which receiver I wanted to fade, I'm just going Brock Purdy under 246 and a half passing yards. In this game, I mean, this Chiefs pass defense, I think, has been very good. They've passed all these tests,

opponents averaging just 100. and 81.5 passing yards per game against Kansas City. I think the 49ers game plan, as I mentioned earlier, is going to be to run the football if they can. You know, it might look a little bit like that Bills game in the divisional round. Josh Allen only threw for 186 yards in that game. The Bills were able to run the football and they kept running the football. I think that's what it could look like,

even if the 49ers are playing well and even if the 49ers win this game. So so far this season, Pertie's been at 267 yards per game. So this is well under that. 246.5 is the number. He's capable of putting up big numbers, but I think the Chiefs tackle well. They don't allow a lot of explosive plays. So I'm hopeful with this that that continues.

Again, it's a one-off game. It might not. He might go for 200 by halftime. You never know, but I'm going under Purdy passing yards in this game. Yeah, I generally agree. The head-to-head matchup on Fandwell for passing yards, has Patrick Mahomes a minus 12 and a half more passing yards than Brock Purdy? I really feel like, like, I would be, that feels to me like Mahomes look.

And I think it has to do with, like you said, like, you don't love Mahomes yards, but Purdy, man, like the only way he's got a high, a high yardage total is if they rip off multiple explosive pass completions. And again, no defense this year or better at stopping a 20 plus yard pass completion than the Chiefs. Yes, but the 49ers have, I mean, you're like, like, when you think about all these, like, it's like, oh, that Ravens again, there haven't been a lot of examples. Like, like, that was one example.

So, I don't know, we just said. This could be Kyle Shanahan's best offense. He's ever coached. They found ways to create explosive plays. Not all those are downfield. There's obviously yards after the catch one. So it's a boring piece of analysis to say, you know, whichever team wins that battle of explosive plays.

Chiefs defense versus 49ers offense. But that is obviously a key. All right. So la. That's it. Give us your recap. Give us all your bets. One last time.

I have Noah Gray to go over 10 and a half receiving yards for my prop. My long shot, which was plus 152. when we started and is now plus 1-148, I officially got it in under the bar. You can attest, I was looking, I was looking at it right before we started. You can attest. This is actually great for me, because if I lose just based on that, then I can hold it over your head for it. We love that for you.

Yeah. Isaiah Pacheco to have at least 80 rushing yards plus 152. I have the Chiefs covering plus 2.5. And then for my additional props, I have Isaiah Pacheco to score touchdown minus 125. And I have Devo Samuel over four and a half receptions. All right, I've got for my prop, Patrick Mahomes to have a higher completion percentage than Brock Purdy for my long shot. I've got Chiefs plus 4.5 and Christian McCaffrey, 80 plus rushing yards. That's at plus 164 for my official pick for this contest.

I've got 49ers minus 2.5 for my actual pick of what I think is going to happen. It's on the ringer.com. You can check it out. I've got Chiefs plus 2.5. And then my last two total first downs over 41 and a half. my favorite bet in this game. And then I've got Brock Purdy under 246 and a half passing yards. All right.

Last picks, props, predictions, pod. I get that off of the season in the books. But don't forget, we got one more pot on the ring around NFL feed on Friday. Nora, Ruiz, Solac, me. Dual extra threat, taken point. There you go. We're going to have one more pod for you. So be sure to check that out before the game.

All right. Thank you to Christopher Sutton for producing additional production supervision by Connor Nevins and Arjuna Ramgapal. Remember, YouTube, Ringer NFL, subscribe. You can see us. You can see Solax reactions, you know, when I needle him a little bit. That's, come on, that's worth subscribing right there. So be sure to check that out, everyone. Thanks for listening.

We'll talk to you tomorrow on the Ringer NFL fee.