The Ringer NFL Show - Biggest Sleeper Teams

Episode Date: August 11, 2022

Nora and Danny discuss their biggest sleeper teams heading into the 2022 NFL season. Hosts: Nora Princiotti and Danny Heifetz Associate Producer: Stefan Anderson Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hello, friends, and welcome to a golf podcast unlike any other. This is Fairway Rowland on the Ringer podcast network. I am your starter. Joe House every week on Fairway Rowland. It is myself and our PGA tour correspondent on the ground, Nathan Hubbard, talking all things professional golf, amateur golf, amateur betting, professional betting, amateur drinking, professional drinking by Birdie Buddies. If you want to hit them straight out there,

please check out Fairway Rowland every week. Available on Spotify. Hello and welcome to the Ringer NFL show. I am Nora Puntziati. I am joined today to talk about sleeper teams in both NFL conferences by the one and only Danny Highfits. Hello, Danny. How are you? I'm phenomenal.

You're phenomenal. I love that. Tell me why. Because we're doing sleeper teams and I'm excited. Yeah, I'm excited too. So when we were sort of figuring out how we were going to do this, we had to decide what constitutes a sleeper team, which by the way, like, I've always wondered who the first person to say, like, don't sleep on that guy was, as a phrase,

it's a little weird. I don't quite get it. it's also a little bit of... I wouldn't take it literally. Yeah. But it had to come from... At some point, this is a different pod. At some point, we're going to have to explore the etymology or, like, I don't know if there's a different... A synonym for etymology, but that pertains to like idioms and sayings.

I don't know. This is, again, this is a different podcast. You want a synonym for admonology? Well, I do a lot of fantasy stuff. Let me tell you, sleeper term isn't going anywhere. And also, no one knows it means anymore. Well... We could just, we could do the etymology.

you the word animology. I don't know what you want to do here. Again, we're going to save that. We're going to save that. That's in-season content, you know? But we are going to not do anything to solve the problem of nobody knowing what a sleeper team means because I think the closest we came was like, okay, what's a team that didn't make the playoffs that could make the playoffs this year? And that's who we could consider a sleeper team. But we're not holding ourselves to that because, like, you can't call the Broncos a sleeper team. That's just not

right. Like, I would call shenanigans on that. I don't know, Danny, I don't know your team. So maybe you chose the Broncos. But like, it has to, the team has to embody the spirit of a sleeper team. So here's the, yeah, here's the quick problem is, as I was going through the AFC,

it was very clear. There are no sleepers in the AFC. Because sleep at its core, at the very least has to be surprised. And I think the AFC West is the most hype division of my lifetime. There's no sleepers in the AFC West. You can't pick a playoff team to be a sleeper get back to the playoffs. And then you can't pick,

I don't think the cults are really a sleeper because the cults, if they had won the last week of the season, they were in the playoffs. So that's not really a surprise. But here's the thing. Are you, am I going to take the Texans or the Jaguars to make the playoffs? Absolutely not. I'm going to take the Jets or the Dolphins?

No, I have eyes. So it's like, all right, well, I guess I'll just pick a team that is better than I think most, will be even better than people think, even though it's good. And I'm just picking the Ravens. And again, am I cheating? Are they a sleeper?

No. I think that they're a sleeper to be the number, seat in the conference. Because I think that everyone's talking about like Mahomes and Herbert and Russ and Denver and Josh Allen, the Bills, I think that the Ravens could be incredible this year. So I don't know if that's really asleep. But honestly, it's no

sleeper playoff team, but the Ravens, I think will be way better than people realize. Okay. I love that in the first five minutes of this podcast, we have just like completely undermined the concept of the podcast itself. Yes and no, though, because I think that the big picture, the AFC, you look at the AFC playoff picture and it's a lot of

wow, one of these teams has to miss the playoffs. And the NFC, it's more. One of these teams has to make the playoffs. Yeah. I just said that like Jimora did. But I think that the gap between the AFC and the NFC is so huge that it's, it's really sleeper teams to miss the AFC in a way and sleeper teams to make the NFC. So, okay, but so let's talk about the Ravens. What for them to, let's say win that division, what do you think has to happen other than not catastrophic injury luck? So here's the thing. Not much. You know why? Everything. went wrong for the Ravens last year, and almost everything went right for the Bengals,

and the Ravens had eight wins, and then Bengals had 10. So again, it's no shade to the Bengals. They're probably, like, maybe other than the Bills, the single most fun team to root for in all football, like they're in the top tier. They're an amazing story. I don't really want to be some Bengals hater. I'm just looking at it more like the Bengals were only two games better than Baltimore in a year where Baltimore, I mean, had some of the most, other than the quarter position, basically the most games lost to injuries of the 21st century. I mean, they lost all three of the running backs before week one. And they still won eight games.

And now they're one of the best secondaries in football. What? I can't believe that was last year. Well, time has just been diluted. Yeah. But like I remember just that week in training camp where it was like, oh my God, they've just been decimated. Like that's such a moment in time to me.

That's wild. It really took me on a journey there, Danny. But so I think you're right. I mean, the only thing that I could possibly quibble with is just that. that it is hard for me to look at the Ravens and say, yes, that's a sleeper team, just because we've considered, other than having a down year when everybody got hurt,

we've considered the Ravens to be sort of among the cream of the crop in the AFC for quite some time now. Then again, there are no sleepers in the AFC. They came in last. They're worse to first. No, I know it's cheap. But here's the thing, I'm not going to, here's the thing.

I thought about the sleeper stuff. The only two teams in the AFC are the Jets. and the dolphins. I don't think they're going to make the playoffs. Maybe I'm wrong because, you know what? Maybe the AFC West beats up on each other and the AFC North does. But to say put the Jets or the dolphins in, you have to basically say three of these teams will miss the playoffs. The Broncos, the Chargers, the Raiders, the Steelers, the Ravens, the Bengals, the Browns.

That's like, you have to say three of those teams will miss the playoffs. I just don't think that's going to happen. I guess I'm in, say the list of teams again. Well, I'm just saying that basically, if you, you just say like, if you just put the chiefs in and the AFC West and you put, you know, let's, I actually, I kind of think the cult will win the South. So let's even take the Titans out and you put the bills in the AFC East and then you put, let's just say the Bengals and the Ravens with the AFC North.

Now you're talking about teams going for playoff spot. That's all three AFC North teams and all three AFC West teams. It's the Steelers, the Ravens, and the Browns and the Bengals. And then you've also got the AFC West, the Raiders, the Chargers, the Chiefs, the Broncos. To put an AFC East team in is to say that four of those other teams are going to be out. I just, that's not the point. I don't want to get into semantics of three wild-part teams. Here's where I want to understand where you're coming from, though, is because I don't think it's outlandish that, let's say, none of the Steelers'

Browns, Raiders, and Titans make the playoffs. Fine, whatever. Like, let's call that a given. You see from the, like, if there's another AFC East team that's going to slot in there, you see Dolphins Jets

as a toss-up. Yeah, I think the Dolphins are better than the Jets. I'm not a Jets believer. That is where I was going ultimately. Because I, like, I'm not a big to a believer, frankly. But the Dolphins roster is just in a different place overall than the Jets roster is. And I don't know what, like, I may not be a big to a believer,

but I don't know really what Zach Wilson has given us that should inspire some confidence to be able to balance that out. So I, if we're square there, then I'm inclined to to agree with you in that way. But I could not, in good conscience, called the Jets a sleeper team in the AFC. No. I think, really, I guess to shout out Judge John Jus Krems, it's probably the dolphins because realistically you're arguing that the dolphins are better than we think they spent a lot of money in free agency and you know the fc west beats up at each other and those teams have hard schedules and maybe the dolphins sneak in and they beat out like you know justin herbert which would be funny yeah well so i'll give you mine and you said earlier that you don't think they qualify as a sleeper team but i think the colts should qualify as a sleeper team because

they've just kind of been like they've been right on the on the cusp um of fighting for a wild card spot. They almost made it in last season. It seemed at one point, like they had the inside track and then they blew it. But I do think that we haven't looked at them and particularly didn't look at them

with Carson Wentz as, oh, this is a real contender in the AFC. And to be honest, I don't know that they are... They have 98% chance of making the playoffs in mid-December. Oh, God. And then they didn't. It was just unbelievable. I don't know that I see the Colts

as like a contender to win the AFC, to win the AFC championship game. I don't think that just because how stacked the conferences at the top, I don't think that they're deep enough, balanced enough. I don't think they quite have the wide receiver group to sort of punch in that weight class. However, replacing Carson Wentz with Matt Ryan alone, which is replacing a player who's on. target percentage was 72%

with one who was 78% throwing two Falcons receivers last year. Like that alone, when you look at that offense and one of its key weaknesses, I think, is receiver depth. They're going to have to get a lot out of like the running backs, catching passes, and some depth guys making an impact.

I think Matt Ryan is just going to be such a a calming and like rising tide presence. in them being able to do that, that I just think if you take away some of the brain fart, I'm going to underhand an interception nonsense that was going on there last year, I think that plus if Gus Bradley running the defense works out pretty well, which I don't think requires tons and tons of things to go right.

Basically, Darius Leonard's got to stay healthy. And then it's probably Quitty Pay has to have a pretty, solid year. You need that defensive line to be able to get a lot of pressure on their own. And then Steph Gilmore having a pretty good season. Those things go right. I think that's a pretty decent defense. Work that

in with all of the expected regression from the Titans. It feels like you can the Colts should be the favorite in that division is basically what I'm saying. Do you agree with that? I think they will win the division as well. I agree. I don't really think there's

Libre because they literally were not a 98% shit to make it the playoffs and they got a better quarterback. But they basically are. I'll look up the odds right now. But I completely agree. The Colts are. I think if you're going to pull, I'm always like, it's kind of like MVP voting. You're like, oh, you've got to vote for this guy. It's like, all right, you've got to pull someone off. I think the Steelers probably fall out.

And I think the Patriots probably fall out. And that seems really easy and the Titans fall out. Those are the three teams from last year's field, I think are pretty easy to kind of point to be like, ah, I don't know. But yeah, the Colts. I don't know if you saw some of the reports out of to win the division. They're, They're minus 120.

The Titans are plus 165. I don't know if you saw some of the reports out of Steelers camp today, but George Pickens is apparently on the fast track to a Hall of Fame career. Don't get me started. I have a vendetta against training camp high videos. I thought you were saying,

don't get me started on George Pickens. No, it's not what George Pickens is good. The videos to manage training camp are done. He did nothing. I don't know. Out of context videos of drills, where defensive backs are in pads and not allowed to use their hands that break up passes.

I'm like, okay. Yet another entry into the long lineage of brilliant second round receiver picks by the Steelers. It seems like it's happening. Yeah, sure. I just, I just, yeah. I'm getting. I'm kidding.

I don't think we, I'm very happy for George Pickens that he's having what appears to be a phenomenal training game. Yeah, I think, look, it seems like, Mitch Trubisky probably is winning the quarterback competition there. Whatever happens with the Browns, they've still got to play Burrow twice. They've got to play Lamar twice. Not great.

It's not great news. And then the NFC, though, is the exact opposite. The NFC is just more like, oh my God, this is who's competing for a wild card in the NFC. That's kind of my thoughts because you have the NFC East, which is the NFC East. The NFC West is solid, but like the Sealk's lost rust. And then you just kind of look at the middle of this division. you're like the bucks keep having guys go down. I'm curious who you pick as the sleeper team for the NFC.

Yeah, I chose to like go for it with this one. And the problem with this is the more I look at it, the more I'm like, I don't know. But I think the Giants have a shot. And that's basically because of Brian Dable's impact. Just that offense was so stagnant last year with a combination of the play calling being so dull. and the offensive line being bad and hurt and bad and hurt and hurt and bad.

I think we are maybe collectively underestimating how much things could change if you just throw in a little bit of movement, throw in a little bit of motion, a little bit of play action, get the play caller and the quarterback sort of on the same page. Hopefully, you know, the one place they spent money this offseason was on the offensive line. They were so hamstrung that they had to, you know, let James Bradbury go so that they could sign their draft class. But the one place they actually spent money was the offensive line. So I'm bullish on how much that can help them. I worry that that only gets them to, I don't know, seven to nine wins instead of like a playoff spot.

But there's no real heavyweight in the division. I think the cowboys are going to take a step back. so I do, if you want to go in for something in the NFC, I do think the Giants could be like a splashy one. I'm a long-suffering Giants fan. I was literally at training camp yesterday, and I just, I think you're right that people are underestimating just how bad the coaching staff was.

Even though people make fun of the staff all the time, don't forget that the Giants season ended with them right before halftime. They took a quarterback sneak on second and 11 and then third and nine, just because they were so concerned about losing four yards. Since then, they're trending up at every possible way you can ask for. But again, last year, my favorite, or not my favorite, my least favorite football set of all time, the Giants were outscored 79 to 0 in the final two minutes of the first half last season.

Which, I'm going to say that again, 79 to 0 in the final two minutes of the first half. That basically means the opposing offense playing the Giants in the final two minute warning was the best offense in the entire league. And the Giants were the worst offense in NFL history in the final two minutes. it's in like what is coaching if not that so i think the giants will probably be better um they also the easiest schedule in the NFL for warren sharp which is very helpful they and then like again they were so injured last year literally every position basically on the entire team they lost not just

one but really two or three people everywhere i mean they had freaking jake fron who was the practice for quarter for the bills the quarterback and like that wasn't even their most injured unit everybody of importance basically got hurt so they can't really be worse is the point they also were last from touchdowns. They signed Mark Lewinsky. They signed John Feliciano. Like, I don't know that those guys are, you know, those aren't pro bowlers, but they help. What?

Like they certainly help. Mark Lewinsky's not a pro bowler? You big John Feliciano guy? That was my question. No, I, yeah. Look, here's the thing. You know, the Giants got better. You know why they literally couldn't have been worse.

They weren't an NFL team. When your quarterback sneaking in a competitive game, you're not a third and nine, you're not a competitive team. Also, the Giants had 30 free agents. More than half of them as of June weren't signed anywhere, which means the other 31 teams looked at the team and were like, these are not NFL players. We don't want them on our NFL teams.

The Giants were not an NFL team. Now they have NFL players. That means they'll get better. Yeah. I think that's good. Plus, the other, you know, it's funny is like every one of these, if somebody's a sleeper or out of the playoffs or whatever, there's always like teams that are kind of implicated in the take.

The Eagles are kind of implicated in this take. What do you think about the Eagles? I think that the Eagles made the playoffs last year, which I think I forget every time I look at it. When I try to do the playoff teams at the top of the head, I always forget the Eagles just were slaughtered by the Buccaneers in a very embarrassing fashion. That the score doesn't really account for it.

However, the Eagles, I think have the biggest ceiling, right? If the Cowboys don't win the division, it has to be Eagles. Like, I keep coming back to that. My Giants, I think I'm huffing a little optimism. People are huffing optimism in the Giants. The reality is the Eagles added AJ Brown. The Eagles added Jordan Davis. The Eagles got better everywhere they needed to.

and also Jalen Hertz just, I'm sorry, like, he's a winner. Like, I just, you know, I know that's kind of like Tim Tebow-esque. But it's true. He has something about him. It ended so badly. I think there's a tendency to overreact to that, right? Like, and not remember that the Buccaneers defense played a perfect game. And he looked, he looked terrible.

The Eagles offense was terrible. Well, the Bucks basically dared him to do things he can't do. And he couldn't, right. But I think that there's like, that lasting image has maybe sunk in a little bit too much. And it makes it easy to forget that, you know, they're probably, I kind of want to say that the Eagles will win that division,

which probably makes its giants, this Giants take a little bit null and void, but it's more interesting. So plus the Eagles can't be a sleeper, so I had to go with it. Sorry. So who are you pulling out of the playoffs then? the Cowboys?

If you're saying the Eagles or the Giants might win the division taking the Cowboys out because that would be stunning. If Mike McCarthy and the Cowboys didn't get back to the playoffs at the Dallas Explosion.

No, I don't think so. I think I'd, you know, I really want to pull the Cardinals. Yes. They're just too hot of a mess right now. Kyler is amazing.

Like, Kyler is another one. Sorry, I'm just doing like reputational buildup for mobile quarterbacks here. Kyler, like, I also think that we're

forgetting how good Kyler is, which is the only thing that makes me a little bit nervous about this, everything other than that is just like, this team is a hot mess. Cliff Kingsbury is like messing with Kyler by having him called plays at practice. He called him Big Dog.

He said that. He said, I just wanted him to know that, hey, this shit ain't easy. Every now and then he starts shaking his head when I'm calling it in there. I'm like, all right, big dog. Bad. The fact that they did that right on the heels of having to take the video game clause out of his contract, basically the video game contract, whatever they want to say about it means, the owner basically thinks Kyler Murray's a child. Like they can say whatever they want, but that's obviously, you know, someone does.

And the owner is the one at the end of the day dealing with all this. So either the GM or the owner thinks Kyler's a kid. The head coach is like, hey, this is an easy dude. I think that's the cardinals' entire slogan. Overall, here's the thing. If you go back, it's not just now, you can go back to February and someone from the Cardinals are basically leaking that Kyler Murray's. a finger pointer. That's how this all starts. I ask you something, how many times

pick a sport, maybe I'm wrong. Football, basketball, baseball, I don't care. What sport do you hear a drip, drip, all off season of just negative stuff, finger pointing, backstabbing, people acute, no positive news.

The NBA. The NBA. DeAndre Hopkins has spent it for six years. And then the team is great. Like, maybe there's an NBA example I'm unaware of, but in the NFL, I can't think of a team where this was, I don't know, but I just, nothing about what's happened to Arizona is positive.

It's all bad. There's a lot of buzz there too about like, oh, Chandler Jones is gone. So JJ Watts is going to be healthy and have a great year. Like, really? I don't know, man.

The Cardinals have the worst cornerbacks unit. The Cardinals are the worst cornerbacks in the entire NFL and the NFC. West with Cooper Cup and Alan Robinson. They have to guard Debo, Daniel, and they have to guard D.K. McCaff and Tyler Lockett. And they have the worst cornerback group in the NFL. They don't really have good linebackers.

And their defensive line, again, as you just says, depending on JJ Wat, and their best receiver, DeAnd Jo Hopkins, suspended for six games. And they think their quarterback is a child who just plays video games all day. So no, yeah, they're coming out of the thing. Okay, yeah, the Cardinals aren't making the playoffs.

I think the team that could replace them, though, is the Saints. Because the Bucks are getting, I don't know, what, three, four injuries every single day. And not really, but Peyton feels that way. And then the Saints, look, I understand Sean Payton's gone. a big part of me thinks that, not that it's overrated,

it's an incredible coach, but I think that it just will be a much smoother transition. Pete Carmichael has been with the Saints for like 12 years. I think that when you're the number two offensive coordinator for Trump Paine for 12 years, I kind of think the offense will be all right. If anything, they might pass more. Also,

it's underrated how bad the Saints. Like they had seventh round guys last year. They had undrafted receivers and they had Taysam Hill. Michael Thomas, now they have Michael Thomas back. They signed Jarvis Landry. They drafted Chris Olbe from Ohio State. That's a real offense.

James Winston. That is a good group for James Winston. Alvin Camar is probably not going to be suspended for 2022, so he's going to play. They lost the left tackle. I get that. But also, you could argue like, oh, trading all these future first and pushing debt into the future. Who cares if it's bad? It's good for this year.

The Saints have not lost to the Tom Brady Bucks in the regular season. Why can't the Saints win the division? So the answer to that would be if the bucks are too good. Now, obviously. But the Saints haven't lost to the bucks. And the one time they lost was because Jared Cook fumbled at the budget. playoffs and the Bucs won the Super Bowl. But even that game, Jared Cook doesn't fumble. The Saints would be 5 and O against the Bucks in Brady era. That's fine.

If the if the Buccaneers do not continue to lose like three core players a day, which is not a given, that roster is just so good. It is just so good. But the Bucs roster got worse. What do you mean? The Saints went two and O against the Bucks last year. And then the Bucs got worse. Okay, but the Saints were an old. overall worse team than the bucks. They don't just play each other 17 times. I get that, but the Saints, the Saints were dealing with James Winston-Herts,

so they have Taysam Hill playing quarterback. And Taysam Hill, who's not a quarterback, playing quarterback throwing to guys who are Saints receivers who, no shade to them, they're probably very capable number four receivers, cosplaying as number one receivers. Now those guys are number four. I guess I just think that it's,

basically, I think that people forget how actually down bad the Saints were last year, and they still kind of almost made the playoffs. They went nine and eight in the season where I just said the Ravens went everything wrong. The Saints had a lot go wrong too. I mean, they replaced Drew Brees, James, James gets hurt to Tassum Hill. They're nine and eight.

That's not bad. A lot of the logic there I'm totally on board with. I just, okay, so losing Ryan Jensen really, really, really sucks. That's a big deal for the Bucks. We don't know what happened. The Bucks. Yes. We don't know what happened to Russell Gage.

Russell Gage got hurt in practice today, but it's not, you know, it could be that could be a week, that could be a seat, like it's just, we don't know. That would be a big loss, but we have no idea if that's the case. If it is not, and so the backup center looked like he got hurt, but it turned out to just be cramps,

if it is not, you're still talking about a team that has Tom Brady, Chris Godwin appears to be just like going to be ready to go. I don't think he's going to be ready to go. For week one, I think he'll play, but I think that it's still,

that's still going to be eight months after his ACL. I don't think he's going to be like 100%. I mean, I don't know what incentive they, like, okay, if Gage goes down and they start really testing the wide receiver depth there, maybe, I don't know what incentive they have to rush him if he's not ready, though. I do think they're too smart to do that. And I also think that, like, they don't need to. They've got evidence, they've got Hulia.

Like, it's too. again, big picture. The Saints, the only game the Saints have lost to the Bucks in like five years was actually that playoff game. And in the Brady, like they have smacked the Tom Brady, the Tom Brady Buccaneers. And I just think that the Saints, honestly, I kind of think the Saints win the division. Everything's true.

Again, Tom Brady didn't want to be on the Buccaneers. I disagree with it. I think something has to go pretty, I agree with everything you're saying about the Saints, but I think something has to go pretty wrong for the Bucks for them to not win. Does it not concern you that Tom Brady looked at the Buccaneers and was like, actually I'd rather play for a different team? and then was forced into playing for the bucks. It actually really doesn't.

It really doesn't because I think Tom Brady wants to be a business mogul in a way that the dolphins could facilitate and maybe he wanted to go do that and he was upset with Bruce Ariens. But then he found another way to go about it and he spent the rest of his offseason calling Julio Jones and calling Kyle Rudolph

and being like... Yeah, because he retired and those guys were like going to leave and he's like, guys, I'm back. He had to. Come join the team. Yeah, but he had to call people. What's he going to do? You have to, once you put out your retirement and everyone's like, oh, you're retiring.

You have to be like, actually, I'm not. You have to hear it from the source. But he's calling them to get them to sign on to a team, which is an advantage the Buccaneers have that other teams don't have, is what I'm saying. Yeah, but when they were better, last year, it's a better team. The Saints kick their ass. I don't know what, it's okay. The point is, I just think the Saints are underrated.

I think the Bucks are trending down. I think the Saints are trending up. And even when they were not at those areas, the Saints are turning up. I think the Saints are turning up. I'm with you there. Don't discount the bucks, man. Come on. Just don't do it.

I'm going to do it. You know why? Tom Brady discounted the bucks. It's not disres. I don't want to hear Tom Brady saying, oh, the haters. Tom Brady retired from the team and tried to play for a different team. So I don't really want to hear anything about discounting the bucks.

Because Tom Brady was like, actually, I don't want to play for the bucks. Okay. We've melded into Brady Talk, which means it's time to end the podcast. This has been the Ringer NFL show. Thank you all for listening. Thank you very much, Danny, even though I look forward to seeing Tom Brady prove you wrong. It's been very lovely to speak with you.

And it's good to see you. It's always good to see you, Danny. Yeah. Okay, good. I'm glad we're still friends. We're still buds. We will be back tomorrow on this feed, not Danny and I, but some of our illustrious colleagues.

Thank you to Stefan Anderson for production on this episode. And to Connor and Evans, and Arjuna Ramgapal for additional production supervision.