The Ringer NFL Show - Call It a Comeback | The Dantasy Football Podcast (Ep. 279)

Episode Date: August 10, 2018

The Ringer's Danny Kelly and Danny Heifetz break down the fantasy football implications around a few key players’ return to the field in 2018. The Dannies discuss Andrew Luck’s outlook, and whether new head coach Frank Reich can get the Colts signal-caller’s career back on track (02:15). They then take a look Aaron Rodgers’s new-look skill-position group (07:30), why Dalvin Cook might make the leap (13:15), and why the Seahawks backfield will come down to blocking and #grit (18:00) before finishing up with whether they’re high on Chris Hogan and Will Fuller (26:30). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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What's up? Welcome to the Dynasty Football podcast, brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network. I'm Danny Heifitz. I'm joined by my co-host and co-danny. Danny Kelly, what's up, D.K.? Not too much, man. I'm just really excited for the start of preseason. It's pretty dope.

Yes, we are recording this on Thursday. You're probably listening to this on Friday. And we are excited because these games are about to begin. I'm going to be watching Giants Brown. so hopefully that goes well. You're going to get the hard knocks bump there too. Yeah, I can't wait to see what happens on hard knocks. But for our show today, we were talking DK before what we wanted to do this about,

and we were talking really about all the injured players that are coming back this year. And, you know, you call me DH, but I'm not a Ph.D. Neither of us are doctors. We didn't really want to speculate about health, but we were going to focus more on when these players come back, let's say that they are fully healthy and they are fully back to where they were pre-injury, what will their situations look like when they return? Because, you know, you can go up or down on past performance, and it doesn't have to necessarily be because of health.

So we wanted to look at players at each position who are coming back and just see what are they really returning to. Yeah, I mean, basically the idea is we don't really, we can't look at last year and be like, okay, this is what we can expect this year year because, you know, each of these guys that we're going to talk about was either missing for part of the year or the entire year, and a lot of these guys are coming into a completely different situation. So I think it's just, it makes a lot of sense to kind of just hash it out,

figure out kind of what we can expect from these guys, and whether or not right now, I guess they're overvalued, undervalued, or if we're excited about them in the fantasy realm. Yeah, exactly. And we can just jump right into it. We'll start with the quarterbacks, and the first guy is the,

I think the reason we actually did this podcast is Andrew Luck, the perfect example of this, I think, just practically two-thirds of the roster almost has turned over, of the offense has turned over since he last play, the whole coaching staff has gone. Yeah, it's totally different. DK, what do you think about Andrew Luck this year? Well, I mean, just from a football point of view,

he is probably one of the more interesting storylines. I mean, you just, it's rare to have a sort of top-tier quarterback like him be gone for so long and come back. I mean, he hasn't played in like 600 days almost. And so, you know, we just kind of don't have a strong grasp on what he's going to do. If, you know, if you haven't really been paying attention closely, it's kind of hard to remember what he was like before, frankly,

because he was also playing her before in 2016. And so I think he's going to be one of the top guys to watch, you know, this season. It's just going to be really interesting to see not only if his shoulder can hold up, but, you know, what happens in that offense because it's kind of, like you said, it's a remade offense. So going back to 2016, he actually finished. And in terms of fantasy, he was QB4, 20.5 points per game. And that was 4200 yards, 32 touchdowns, 15 interceptions.

And kind of going into it right now, I think people's expectations are pretty low. Right now on fantasy pros, I saw he was QB10. And so I think there's a lot of uncertainty around him and with good reason. Obviously, you know, we don't really know what Frank Reich is going to bring as the new coach there. we don't know if his offensive line's going to hold up we don't know really who he's going to be passing to other than T.Y. Hilton. And so, yeah, there's just a lot of questions.

I can get into all of those details, but what is your kind of overall, like, opinion on him right now? Well, to what you were saying, I mean, the last time we checked in on this, which, I mean, is before Trump was even inaugurated. It was a long time ago. Wow. I know, right?

Time flies. A lot of water on the bridge. But the narrative when he left was Pagano's coach Ryan Grigsman was the GM and luck was this incredibly talented quarterback who had the thinnest second through 53rd roster in the entire league and now he's come back and they actually have filled in the margins of it much better with some first round picks both in defense and offense and the line's gotten the line has improved from when he left and now the question is what do we do with rank and stuff so I'm curious what you think he'll actually be doing and

what do you envision from Frank Wright this this season yeah I mean that's the big question he comes over from the Eagles and so obviously the Eagles are, you know, the hot team right now. They just won the Super Bowl. They were super innovative in terms of, you know, what they did on offense. They were heavy RPO. They used a lot of college concepts. I think that they come, Rick, Rick comes in with this reputation for being able to manage

quarterbacks because obviously after Wentz went down, you go with Foles. He does really well in the playoffs, leads him to a Super Bowl. You know, that, there's some cashy attached there. Obviously, they know what they're doing with quarterback's situation. And so I think kind of the general gist is that they're going to understand, you know, how to manage him. And, you know, he's a former quarterback. So he kind of gets what the quarterback's job is. I think making it easier for him.

And all that stuff, I think it's going to be real helpful. Because, you know, back in the day, luck, back in 2016, 2015. Back in the day. Back in the day. He was kind of known for having one of the more difficult schemes to work in. like he was forced to make a lot of hard throws and that was part of the reason he had a lot of interceptions

and that was kind of the narrative. And so, you know, going into this year, I think I wouldn't be surprised if he was a little bit more efficient just from an interception point of view. I think that they're going to try and make it a lot easier on him. And so I think that's going to be really interesting.

I don't know what to expect from Nick Siriani. You know. Who's the new offensive coordinator? Yeah, he was a chiefs receivers coach, Chargers, QB's coach and receivers coach. So we don't really, you know, there's just no. telling what he's going to be like. And frankly, play calling is different than planning a

offense or designing an offense to writing up plays. Like play calling is an heart. You have to like, you know, feel out the defense and all that stuff. So we don't really know what to expect from him in that sense. And so there's just a lot of variables. But I think right now just looking at it, luck seems to be kind of undervalued. And so I think he's kind of one of those guys to keep in mind, you know, eighth or ninth round, and as you're starting to decide what you want to do at quarterback. I think luck right now is the QB11 on Yahoo, half PPR, and around 104th overall. I think luck's a good example. I think he's good. We can juxtapose at the end of the quarterback round, but he goes hand in hand in my mind with the next guy we're going to talk about who's Aaron

Rogers. And whereas luck is going 104th overall. Aaron Rogers is going like mid-fourth round, like somewhere around 33, 34, which is the opposite. Rogers also the opposite kind of injury, whereas Luck had that mysterious shoulder injury. Rogers broke his collarbone in week six. Everyone thinks he'll be fine this year. Brett Hunley replaced him, and everyone's like, well, turns out you can't replace Aaron Rogers.

And then they fired the Packers offensive coordinator. They fired quarterback coach, replaced him with Joe Philbin, who was actually the offensive coordinator earlier in Rogers' career. They won the Super Bowl, all that jazz. more importantly almost there was a front not more importantly but there was a front office shift as well

they fired long time GM Ted Thompson and then replaced him with Brian Gutikuns who actually for the first time in like a decade they signed free agents which they really Packers had never done and they brought in Jimmy Graham cut Jordy Nelson

so this kind of led to a whole round of who replaces Jordy Nelson in Green Bay and the truth is it can't be done so when Rogers returns I mean the value that Jordy brought He was obviously athletic and just really great route runner and all these things. But the real value in Jordy Nelson's relate was his chemistry with Aaron Rogers.

They obviously divide that incredible, the back shoulder throw that their timing made it maybe the most, I would say the most single most under or impossible route to defend in the entire NFL for probably a two or three or stretch. And that kind of chemistry isn't going to be replicated, I don't think, by any of the guys on this roster right now, at least not in 2018. So I'm more interested in how Jimmy Graham is going to kind of fit into this. Yeah. Because Jimmy Graham, obviously, coming from Seattle, where he led the NFL in Red Zone targets, and he led the – where he was second in the league in touchdowns, and receiving touchdowns with 10.

And he was tied with Devante Adams. So that's really the kind of the question is how can Jimmy Graham possibly kind of replicate, like leading the league in Red Zone targets again? And it's simple. He probably isn't going to be able to. because you wrote a bit this last year where the Searcks did a cool thing, which is a no-brainer,

but Jimmy Graham's like six, Jimmy Graham's 6-7-265 and they would put him outside as a receiver, ISO him on some poor, poor cornerback. And they'd basically just treat him like a four, like in basketball, like he was just a four-a-month. Yeah, and a mismatch. And it's like a point guard,

we'd just feed him the ball in the paint. And that was what they do. They just boxed them out every time. And it was awesome to watch. It took them three years to figure out to do that, which I don't even, let's not even talk about that, it's going to piss me off, but yeah.

I kind of want to pull it out. But yeah, so in short, I don't think there's replacing Jordy Nelson, even though Rogers comes back. You're not going to get that same connection, but Rogers is an incredible quarterback, and he's going to figure out a way to spread the ball around. So I think, sadly, compared to last year, Jimmy Graham

is not going to have as many touchdowns, but he'll probably have enough to lower the ceiling of Devante Adams, at least in the red zone. So I think that distribution you'll see across the Packers board, Ty Montgomery pulling from Aaron Jones and the rest of the running backs there, including Jamal Williams. I actually think that all those guys that it might get distributed enough laterally across their own depth chart that none of them have an awesome fantasy ceiling,

including Rogers himself, because I just don't see how with quarterback being so deep you could possibly be worth something in the 35th. I've changed my mind on this. I actually think luck is a good idea of someone you might take and then pair with Mahomes or Mario or someone you're confident with in a later round, especially if people are afraid of him because on the off chance, he's great.

I'd rather mix and match luck with his ADP than look at Rogers. Yeah, so the Jimmy Graham thing is, I think, a really big point of contention with a lot of fantasy community. I think it's, you know, like you said, last year he led the NFL and targets in the Red Zone 26, and he had 16 targets inside the 10. yard. I think a lot of them came in from like less than like five yards too.

So he was really the Seahawks goal line back. Yeah. Yeah. Seattle had, I think it was like inside the five or inside the ten they had like 13 or 15 rushes. I don't know what the status off the top of my head. They had like

in the double digit rushes for negative three yards last year and zero touchdowns from their running backs. And so you know, he was, he essentially like was their goal line back. And so you're not going to probably see him in that role in Green Bay. I think he's going to be more of like a, you know,

he'll definitely get those goal line targets. But inside the 10-yard line, he could be part of like a decoy. And I could see, you know, like a Randall Cobb start to, you know, get some of his targets too. When you split Jimmy Graham out, that makes the defense kind of react. And then you can have Cobb run like a whip route underneath,

which he's really, really good at. And he, you know, he's been a touchdown score in the past that way. And so, yeah, I think the Packers' red zone scenario and situation is going to be really interesting to watch. I think Jimmy Graham could probably be more efficient in the red zone this year. You know, he's not going to need 26 red zone targets to have, you know, a solid amount of touchdowns.

But, yeah, it's going to be hard for him, I think, to match that, match that total from last year unless he just kind of gets into the zone. And we see like a really, really instant connection with Aaron Rogers. So, yeah, he's definitely an interesting one to watch. I think probably shine away from him a little bit, but tight-end position is pretty weak. And so you kind of have to take your guys where you can. Yeah, and if there's one packer I want,

I still think it's Thai Montgomery for where he's going. He's going like 12th round, still guy I want. But speaking of which, running backs, D.K., another running back coming off, Dalvin Cook, one of the first big names to fall of last season. He was fantastic when he was with the Vikings, got hurt, and now he's coming back, and that's an amazing Vikings team.

So what do you think about Dalvin Cook this season? I mean, when you look at, I can't believe he only played four games because it felt like he was in there for a lot longer. Like he really felt like he'd broken out. And when you look at his, what he did in those four games and you pace it for a full season,

he would have finished with, so he had 18 and a half carries a game for 88 and a half yards a game, you know, in those four games. And so that paced out to a 16 game season would have been 296 carries, which would have been second to Levi-on-Bell. And 88 and a half yards a game,

over 16 games would have been first in the NFL with 1,400 yards, over 1,400 yards. As we try to project him to a full season, I think a thing that always comes up, especially with younger running backs, is game scripts. And how are you able to participate in the game, no matter what the situation dictates,

especially as the fourth quarter rolls in, you're up or you're down by a lot? So how do you feel Dalvin Cook will do in different situations the Vikings face? I mean, he's going into a situation where it's advantageous to him because the Vikings are, in theory, going to be really, really good. Their roster is amazing. Their defense is really good. You know, they've got Kirk Cousins this year, so that's kind of an X factor.

But I think they're going to probably be playing with a lot of leads. I mean, last year, according to football outsiders, they are fourth in average lead to start their drives. You know, they're up by three and a half points to start every drive on average. And so, you know, that just means you're going to be able to run the ball more. It's more about ball control, that kind of thing. And so, you know, when they're not losing by 10 points or whatever and kind of the run game goes out the window, that's good for fantasy for a running back. Obviously, you know, you want a balance too because you want him to be a factor in the passing attack too. But I think there's a chance that he'll have, you know, that opportunity for a lot of, for a lot of volume.

And, you know, Latavius Murray, I think he's a solid backup. But I just think Cook is a lot more dynamic. And obviously, you know, the injury, the knee injury thing is a fact. factor, but it sounds like he's kind of 100%. He's already playing without a knee brace. Sounds like he's doing really well in training camp. And so I think you can kind of go into it with the thought that he's healthy. And, you know, there's a solid chance that it'll be a really high volume guy.

So right now he's going, he's running back 10, depending on what rankings you're looking at. So he seems like a candidate. Do you think he could finish like top three or four and you SERP one of the, quote, unquote, obvious top five guys with Zeke or Kamara or Levi-on-Bel. whatever, do you see him just kind of not really being on that yet? I mean, I think he sound like he might be a top four dude. I think he could, you know, he could be in that stratosphere. It's just a matter of, I mean, how much risk do you want to take in terms of, you know, his health and everything.

I think in the first two rounds, I mean, so he's, so right now he's, according to what I'm looking at, Fantasy Bros, and this is half PPR scoring, he's wide, he's running back 10 and overall 14. So, I mean, it's not like, you know, he's not like falling down. draft boards. He's still really up there. He's like a second rounder. And so I think if you're confident in him, you could take him in the first round

and feel fine about it. I think second round is really, you know, where he's going most often, so that makes a lot of sense to me. He's an elite player. I think he's going to be an elite player this year. All right. Before we move on, let's take a quick break. Today's episode is brought to you by

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Go to MyBooky.orgie.ag and sign up with the promo code Ringer, NFL, to ensure you're eligible for all their future promotions and bonuses. Once again, that's mybooky.orgie. That's mybooky.ag. Use promo code Ringer NFL. All right, D.K. Another running back. One of the guys, we bonded over last season. Seattle Seahawks running back, Chris Carson.

Yeah. I fell in love with Chris Carson last year. It's a seventh round pick out of Oklahoma State. He was unbelievable. I mean, his stats didn't leap off the page, but he was the kind of guy through five weeks that just he was so adept at turning losses into, you know, two-yard losses into three-yard gains. He didn't break off huge chunks, but he is. not afraid of contact, but he's a smart runner who hits holes and he goes upfield, and he really just takes what the defense gives him.

He was one of the most surprising, I think, preseason stories for me anyway, because I'm close to it in Seattle, and I thought nothing of it when they picked him. He was like a throw-in seventh rounder, and it's like, oh, great, another throw-in seventh-rounder that will get cut immediately. But he was legit right away. You know, I think he looked a lot better than his college tape kind of indicated, and so he earned that job, and he was their starter, and that's just kind of crazy to think about.

And then he broke his leg, and he obviously was out for the season to try to come back, but it wasn't the same. But this year, he came back, and he would have been one of my favorite players, and they drafted Rashad Penny 27th overall. They caught some flak for it. They're basically the same size. They're both 5-11 and about 220. Penny was prolific runner against ECH competition.

The ADP on this is just fascinating. Rashad Penny is going on both ESPN and Yahoo between 47th and 50th, and then Chris Carson's going 124th to 132nd. All indications at a training camp, Chris Carson is rolling with the starters, he's with the first team, he looks great with the first team, and Rashad Penny is getting the, oh, he looks great, you know, he's doing good, which they're talking about him, and everyone's like watching Chris Carson, and Chris Carson looks great, which this is a bad. That's already just a bad start.

So the eye test already kind of affirms what we saw last season. But this is where I kind of have a little rant for you, D.K. There's this high pick fallacy where everyone's like, oh, Rashad Penny got picked 27th overall, so the Seawks have to play him. No, the Seahawks just have to win. It's not Seacuan Barclay. They didn't go second. They don't have to play them.

And here's the thing. Rashad Penny is really good in a lot of areas you want, especially from a fantasy running back. He's fast. You know, he can hit holes. He can read. He can catch passes. But really basic premise of football is he can't block.

He cannot block. Not as college tape anyway, yeah. So, pro football focus had 60 qualified running backs from the draft class. And of those 60, Rashad Penny graded 58th. past protection. So you can get away with being kind of bat, but he's terrible. And here's the thing. When you're a rookie, that is a cardinal sin. It's a pass-fail test with your pass blocking. If you cannot protect your quarterback and your coaches don't have the 100% confidence that, not just you're good at it, but you know what to do on a given play, as much as they might want

to protect their 27th pick, they can't do the season without Russell Wilson. And so the way I'm looking at it is, Rashad Penny, if you can't play on passing downs, then, I mean, that's obviously not a three-down back, but the alternative people

have been saying, well, he's not a great pass blocker, so he'll play on early downs. The issue with that is that Warren Sharp of sharp football stats, he tracks something called

early-down rushing success rate, which is, you know, success rate on rushing on early downs. Right, right. You have to pick up a certain amount of yards for... Yeah, you know, really complicated. But the point is, the Seahawks were last in the whole league, which you know.

So they need to start passing on earlier downs because their rushing is so abysmal. And that's why last year it felt like every time Russell Wilson was playing, it was third and ten. And that's because it basically was. So they need to start passing earlier. And it's not as simple to say, oh, they'll just play in first down. It's their absolute worst football team is when they're rushing on first and second. So I just don't know if Rashad Penny's going to have that role. I'm not saying he can't block or he won't get better,

but until I see him protecting Russell Wilson and not just Pete Carroll saying, well, you know, he's making strides. And I don't know, that's how Pete Carroll talks about. Yeah, they did talk about how he looked really good or whatever in Passboro and training camp, but that's, you know, it's a whole other thing to get into a game and do it

and when you have exotic blitzes and stuff like that. They talked about it, but when you're as bad as it as he was, I need to see him blocking for Russell Wilson in a preseason game. And until then, I cannot fathom taking him. in 50th overall. I would not touch him. And Chris Garcia looks great. It's this is and this is kind of one of the reasons we we chose this guy. We chose Jimmy Graham. We chose Chris Carson because it's you know right now

they're they're very hotly contested issues in fantasy and it's it's something that we have to kind of project. I think I kind of land on the side that I think that Chris Carson is going to get a legitimate chance to it. I don't think this is lip service. You know, I don't think this is Pete Carroll manipulating necessarily. I think he, the whole offseason he spent talking about getting competition back. You know, that was a big reason. I think they moved on from Richard Sherman. And part of the reason they moved on from Michael Bennett is like they wanted to recapture

the early competition mantra. I mean, it's literally the whole foundation of his whole philosophy, Pete Carroll's. It's not just like lip service. The other thing is, it's not just Pete Carroll saying that Chris Carson looks amazing, like legitimately uniform from everyone who's been to a Seahawks practice says that Chris Carson looks amazing. And so I think it's, you know, a result of if they start Chris Carson and they let him play and they give him a lot of carries, like it's just a bonus for Pete Carroll because

it's a very strong message to the rest of the team that if you play well and if you work your ass off or whatever, you're going to be able to play. It's like that's the message. I don't think that's the reason they're doing this, though. I think he will literally go with the guy who's playing back. So and does that mean he's going to be, does that mean Chris Carson is going to be the starter? I don't know. Yeah.

Obviously, like you said, we have to watch how it goes in preseason. But right now, almost all indications are he's running with the first team. Dan Graziano posted an article on ESPN today talking about how right now Carson is the starter. Yeah. And so I don't know. It's definitely one of the more interesting situations in the NFL in terms of where do we go with this for fantasy? Because obviously, Penny first round pick. And so that's huge.

but I think, yeah, it makes it very tough because of the disparity between their ADPs. To be clear, I mean, I just, what I'm saying really is until I see the Seahawks comfortable with him blocking for Russell Wilson, I won't be. But I could be totally wrong, because if they get that down and they feel comfortable with him on all downs, then, I mean, he was really intriguing as a prospect.

He was first among all players in the draft class of broken tackles and broken tackle rate per pro football focus, Sam Monson, and then he was really great in their elusive rating, and he can catch, and he's just a really great prospect, and I can certainly see, like, being wrong on this, but Chris Carson is the only player I can think of that he could move up 50 spots, like 5-0, and I'd still think that that would be a pretty great value. Like, because 130, I would take him, 70 would be a steal. Right. So, it's, the other thing, the other factor in this whole thing is, see how sucked that running last year. Yeah, no, they're really bad. So, like,

I don't know. Yeah, I think if you're in a dynasty league, Penny makes a ton of sense. But right now he feels a little bit high. And I think his ADP's actually been plummeting the last like two weeks or whatever. And so you might be able to get him a little bit later than you would have probably about two or three weeks ago. But yeah, I mean, that's, to me, it's just a fascinating situation. And someone. Hopefully, oh, by the way, hopefully he doesn't just go off tonight.

We're recording on Thursday. and he just goes off and makes this whole situation look stupid. But we're basing this all on training camp. I stand by my comments. And someone with the opposite problem, instead of a falling ADP, a rising ADP, wide receiver, Chris Hogan of the Patriots. Yeah, I mean, so the Patriots receiving core

and their backfill really, but their receiving core is really fascinating too because, you know, obviously they lose Brandon Cooks, Danny Amandola's gone, Edelman's going to be out for the first four games. He's coming off an ACL tear. you don't really know what to expect from him early on when he gets back. And so there's just this huge amount of volume in that passing attack to be taken back.

And I saw this. Evan Silva actually was one who tweeted this first. I saw, but Hogan in the first eight weeks of last season when he was playing when he's healthy, he was wide receiver 9 in PPR scoring. He had 33 catches, 348 yards, five touchdowns in those first eight games. I think he hurt his shoulder and he kind of, I think he came back one week during the Reddinger's season and then was out until the playoffs. And so he kind of comes in now as the Patriots number one guy, at least until, you know,

Edelman comes back and then Edelman might turn into sort of the de facto number one. But, I mean, going into the season, you got a guy Hogan who is Tom Brady's number one target. And he seems to me like he's really flying under the radar right now. Yeah, not everything's rocket science in this business. Tom Brady trusts him, and he's really good with Tom Brady. He's a guy who is a really high floor, especially in PPR. And if he goes off, I mean, he's going 28th right. He's the 28th receiver.

And if he was top 10, like you said, no one would bat an I. I mean, this one, this isn't super complicated. The other thing that's interesting is he's actually number two on the team in the last two seasons and red zone targets. And so he's got some touchdown upside too. I just think the rest of that receiver group, you got to watch it close. and you got to kind of choose which guy you think is going to kind of emerge. Philip Dorset apparently has been playing in the slot. They kind of have him eyed as like Edelman slash Amindole Light to start out.

And that could kind of be his chance to break out. Obviously they just signed Eric Decker. So that's interesting. Between Decker and Kenny Britt and Edelman and this is like a GQ catalog now. But. Yeah. And then add in Corderole Patterson or Corderole Patterson. And he is kind of the X factor.

Apparently he's looked really good in Camp 2. And so, yeah, I don't know. That whole group is really interesting. But right now with Hogan in front, I think he's probably really underrated right now. Yeah, I think it would be really funny if Philip Dorset was great. But now, Chris, that's unquestionably, yeah, the right call. I don't understand what's up with Hogan. All right, who's your last?

Who's your last guy? Will Fuller with the Texans. I mean, Will Fuller and Deshawn Watson go hand in hand in this conversation. Obviously, both got hurt last year. Fuller only played 10 games. Deshawn Watson, you know, towards ACL in November. And basically, it's the same thing for both of them. They were just performing at completely unsustainable rates of just touchdowns and just excitement.

Maybe? Maybe. I mean, this is a, this is, you know, not a groundbreaking stuff, but basically Fuller, I think, caught seven touchdowns in his first 13 catches after he came back from a broken collar. Yeah. His toucharm was impossible. And then Watson was throwing touchdowns at a 9.3% rate last year. But that includes the half he played. If you just go the six starts, it was actually over 10%.

Which, again, so Aaron, I got a lot. Aaron Rogers is the active leader in touchdown rate. This is a great rotorwold's stat. Aaron Rogers is active leader at 6.4% in touchdown rate. So Watson was playing more than 50% better than the active leader in this category. So that's the definition of unsustainable. I think that him tearing his ACL probably at the absolute peak of his play. I mean, there's no question he was going to regress from that point forward.

He was the ultimate sell high candidate. And I hate to sound like down into Sean Watson because I love the guy and he was amazing. but you can simultaneously, I think, be like, I love him. He's wonderful. He was so much of what it was exciting about last year. But at the same time, it's unfair and unrealistic to expect him to keep doing what he was doing at that rate. And so what was fun about him? He was just running around the backfield and just dodging defenders and just making stuff as he went along and finding everyone in the end zone.

Great for us as fans. But if you're Bill O'Brien, you went into the offseason, you're like, wow, we can't do that again. Because it's like a bender that, you know, everyone just was fine. But like, they have the worst offensive line in the league, like the worst. And I'm a Giants fan and you're a Seahawks fan and the Texans have the worst offensive line. When we say that, it means something. Exactly. So if they kept the offense that they did last year, which again, they kind of did on the fly after he took over for Savage, his touchdown rate was going to come down.

His interceptions would go up. And you can't have this kind of deep bombing style offense when your offensive line's terrible. Because if... You got to protect him. You got to protect him, one. And it's just bad for his development to be constantly evading pressure. It's not a way to learn.

So it makes sense that as the football outsider's Almanac pointed out, he was one of the best passers in short, like short throws, like within five yards. And it makes sense that they would develop the offense in a way where he's going to be making a lot more short throws, short reads.

He won't be in the pocket as long because the line can't give him that kind of space or that kind of time. And his completion percentages will go up as a result. His deep bombs are going to go down and his interceptions, they'll probably try to curb it. But the issue for me with Will Fuller is,

I don't know how he fits into that. Maybe Will Fuller has the route running crispness and sharpness that he'll be able to operate in that. But my worry is he just becomes Deshawn Jackson. A super touchdown-dependent guy who is stuck in your mind and he's so tantalizing. But in reality, I mean, his final, he didn't finish, I know Tom's, I mean, Deshaun Watson got hurt during the stretch,

but what is more Deshawn Jackson than Will Fuller's, like, final, like, end of the season? 32 yards, 15 yards, 26 yards, 44 yards, 10 yards, 17 yards, no touchdowns. Right. That is Deshawn Jackson me, and his ADP right now is around 70, which is always where Deshawn Jackson went for like five years in a row. I never once enjoyed owning Deshawn Jackson because no matter how great it was that one week he would have like 190 yards and two touchdowns.

Like starting someone at two catches and 18 yards is like, you just feel so stupid as a fantasy owner. It's so stressful, it kind of keeps you up at night. And every week you have to figure out like the odds of a deep. you know, bomb? What can he do it this week? And it's just, it's not even quantifiable. There's just a certain

angst, like, existentially when you're drafting one of those, like, like, deep threat guys at a level that they're supposed to be consistent. Like, if you're drafting a guy at 70th overall, like you still expect a modicum of consistency and Will Fuller is going to be the opposite of that to me. I think he's a glorified, like,

Deshawn Jackson type. I would love to be wrong because I love that offense. Love Deshawn. I want them to be fun. But I don't think they'll be conservative, but they'll be way more conservative, I hope, than last year. And I don't see any world where Will Fuller can take it up from last year. Although I'd love to be wrong. I don't see how.

Yeah, I'm with you. I'm not targeting Fuller. The one thing I will say is, I want to say when Watson was healthy, the Texans used play action more than any team in the NFL. It was like 30-something percent. And I could see that go up again this year. Bill O'Brien, good coach. And I mean, Fuller is the ultimate weapon on play action And just a sense that, you know, if you take one wrong step, you're dead.

I mean, and like we saw against the Seahawks like he attacked Earl Thomas You know, like really early in the game. And so, I mean, it wasn't like they were afraid of anybody. And so I don't know, there is this kind of like hope that maybe what he did was somewhat sustainable. Maybe it won't be 9.3% touchdown rate or 10, 10 plus. but, oh, man, I don't know. But, yeah, I'm not with you, though. I'm not looking at, I'm not going at Fuller this year.

I think he's probably going to be kind of like overvalued, but. I think this is nothing to do with football, and it has more to do with how close to the edge you like to live life. And if you are so much. You talk about staying up at night. I don't have that problem. I will, well, D.K., you should sleep like a baby. You should sleep like a baby.

You should play fantasy football if a roster line-up decision hasn't kept you up at night? Okay, on that note A couple obligatory mentions on an injury show Odell Beckham we talked about at length The Giants last week very quickly Not playing in the preseason game Odell Beckham is I'm not sure about the technical term

I think he's good of football He'll be fine No, I think what we discussed is Will the Giants Better pass-catching talent around him detract from his overall volume And could he be completely healthy but also just not score as many touchdowns,

not have to break as many big plays and be kind of disappointing. I'm not even close to objective on this. So what do you think? Well, I'm still targeting him high. I think he's just that good. You know, I think obviously there's some more talent in their offense and could spread it around,

but I still think he's a double-digit touchdown type of guy, and so I'm targeting him. My answer is the same. You'll have more fun with him than anyone else, and your life will be slightly better, just getting to have him in your life. I promise. David Johnson obviously broke his wrist by half time at week one.

The whole team's changed. I mean, Carson Palmer retired. The whole coaching staff left. He is a completely new offense. The team literally went from contending to rebuilding basically by halftime. I would be lying if I said I had any clue what this offense is going to look like this year. And his usage, I think, such a, again, you have to nitpick at the top, as Matthew Berry said, on Bill Simmons Pod this week.

And my issue with David Johnson is so much of his values to be tied. to how there was an organizational commitment to him being like the focal piece of their offense and that's pretty awesome and now that doesn't exist and I'm not saying he's not just as talented as he was but it's really nice when you have like a top down commitment to this guy

is like the centerpiece of kind of conceptually who we are. Right. So you're taking him number two or three or what? Honestly the... I almost talked myself into him at two in July and now I'm kind of like five maybe six. Yeah, it just scares you a little bit.

I just have a knot in my gut when I think about taking him at four over any of the top five guys and I don't know, it just doesn't sit with me right. My gut, something in my guts telling me no. Anyway, that's fair. Moving on to Carson Wentz.

Yeah, don't draft him. We don't even know if he's going to start the season, actually. Yeah, honestly, it's funny. You actually kind of have the same problem the Eagles do, which is like, do you start him like Nick Foles? So he's going 70th overall. I think he's, this is a very lead-dependent thing.

It depends when you draft and how much information is out there about when he'll start, because that's going to have a huge swing on when he actually goes in your league. Right now his ADPs around 70. I don't think it'll stay there whenever you're doing your draft, so I don't even think that's very relevant. Obviously, you have to monitor his health. If you can get a value on him, if he's out for a couple weeks, he's almost more appealing to me, because if he drops and you can get another quarterback later

to do the first month and then you can just survive and have once later in your season. I think that's better. I'm a huge fan of that. Anytime you can get value in elite players,

I'm a huge fan if they come back later. I'm with you. All right. Well, thank you guys for listening. We appreciate it. And thank you to D.K.

Thank you to Jim. Dika, do you want to thank Jim or you just still hate Jim? Jim is just really just too mean. They're kind of fighting. All right. All right. Thank you, everyone. And go Giants.

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