The Ringer NFL Show - Can the Vikings Win the NFC North?

Episode Date: July 28, 2022

Danny Heifetz is joined by The Ringer’s new NFL writer, Sheil Kapadia, to discuss some of his hottest takes heading into the 2022-23 season. Host: Danny Heifetz Guest: Sheil Kapadia Associate Producer: Carlos Chiriboga Additional Production Supervision: Conor Nevins Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It's summertime. The weather is beautiful. What a perfect time to stay inside and look at our fantasy football rankings and sleepers at Fantasy Football. Dot the ringer. And check out our pod with Danny Kelly, Danny Heifitz, and me, Craig Horlebeck at the Ringer Fantasy Football Show on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to the Ringer NFL show.

My name is Danny Hifitz and I have the honor of being joined by our newest NFL staff writer, Sheal Kapadia, it is your first podcast as a Ringer employee. And I have to say that despite you being. from Philadelphia, I am very happy that you're here today. Yeah, honor, curse. I don't know how you want to determine it. I've just been locked up for three weeks with no outlet to release all these takes that I want to fire off about the 2022 season. So you're, you know, for better or worse, you are going to hear them today and hopefully

guide me about what I should make public and what I should just kind of keep between us. Yeah, well, this started, we were on a Zoom yesterday and the first thing you said to me was you and Stephen were completely wrong about the bank. they're going to make the playoffs. Well, I don't know what that was exactly, you know, it was to that effect. You know, you and the great Stephen Ruiz made a strong case about why the Bengals are going to miss the playoffs, love the episode, listen to it, a lot of smart, reasonable, analytical points.

You know, I'm just taking the other side. You know, sometimes you got to kind of go against the nerds, go against the smart people, just have that, you know, like when coaches say they follow the fourth down thing, but sometimes they just go with their gut. usually I make fun of them when they say that, but that's kind of what I'm doing now because, yeah, I'm a little more bullish on the Bengals than you guys are. So you don't, so basically you don't take your own device.

You criticize everyone else with their gut, but that it's like, but your gut's right. I mean, that's pretty much my life philosophy. Yeah, you make fun of others, but yeah, not yourself. Yeah, there we go. That's perfect. So we're going to just do your basically your three most unhinged takes that you've developed here over the last three weeks,

because as we were talking, you were just throwing them out. And we just were like, all right, we got to like bottle this up. Sheal. You've been cooped up for three. You haven't actually done content for three weeks. So what is like, what is like your favorite take that you have honed over the last few weeks? Oh my God. I want to give you the one that I'm on the fence about because I feel like, you know, we've spoken what three times, but I would call this a burgeoning friendship. Is that fair to say? Yeah. So I need a little guidance. There has to be some trust here. And here's the one that I'm thinking about going with, but we still have what, six weeks until the season. So I might just want

to bag it. I'm looking at that NFC North. and I'm looking at the Packers, and I'm looking at the Vikings, and the Vikings have hurt my feelings before. You know, I've gone big on the Vikings before, only to regret it. I'm considering taking the Vikings to win the NFC North over the Green Bay Packers. And I can, I'll give you the case, but what is your sort of gut reaction when I tell you that? I'm also leaning that way. They're plus 300 in Fandall's sports book.

Last week, we were trying to figure out who's going to miss the playoffs from last year, and I just penciled in the Packers to win the division. And I got a lot of crap for that. And I have to say, I mean, especially, they just got worse. I'm just always skeptical when a team gets worse. And I didn't want to admit, because here's the thing, the Packers, I think they're the first team to win 13 games three years in a row, right? Sounds right.

Yeah. So it felt crazy to me to like bump them out. But what put you on the track to just be like maybe the Vikings will take them over? Yeah, I think it does start with the Packers, actually. So let's start with them that you mentioned. It's kind of like I need to fade the Packers a little bit. I mean, they just feel like a team to me. that missed their window. I mean, you just mentioned it.

13 wins, three years in a row, 39 and 10. They don't get to the Super Bowl. And now Devante Adams has gone. Now, hear people poo-pooing that. Oh, they still have Aaron Rogers' offensive line. They'll figure it out. Devante Adams had three times as many yards as any other player on the Packers last year. And just think about like when you're watching the Packers, a key third down, red zone.

They need something. It was just like, oh, my God, the back shoulder to Devante Adams, unguardable. And it's not like they were, I mean, it would be one thing if they replaced him. It was like, all right, they got someone. He's not as good. But, I mean, they almost did nothing. Sammy Watkins? A second round pick on Christian Watson? You know, Robert Tunyon's coming back, coming off an ACL.

Like, I just feel like that offense. And again, we're sort of speaking in hyperbole here. I don't think the Packers are going to go three and 14. I think they're probably still going to make the playoffs. But I still feel strongly that that offense is going to take a step back. And then Aaron Rogers is 39. You know, we sort of take that for granted. Now we're just like a 39.

No big deal. You'll keep winning NBA. at some point, the play has to decline a little bit. The offensive line, they've sort of earned the benefit of the doubt there, I think. They seem to always come up with young players who can fill in. But still, that's the question. David Vaktiari, still not practicing. Elton Jenkins, their other very good offensive linemen coming off of an injury.

And so I just look at that offense and they just scream to me like a team where you're going to be looking at this in week 10 going, man, last year was the year. Two years ago should have been the year. They just don't have it anymore. I think the Packers, it's almost like where the Saints were a few years ago, where the Saints, I mean, they lost the Minneapolis Miracle, they lost the NFC Championship game. They had like almost 40 wins in three seasons and they didn't get there. The Packers are in that spot too. I mean, on the Fantasy Football Show, shameless plug for the Ringer Fantasy Football Show,

we keep trying to figure out, who should we draft from the Packers? Like, is Aaron Jones the running back going to be the number one receiver on this team? Like, is Alan Lazard going to take 100 targets? Like, you can't even figure it out. The defense will be really good. But I think that the reality is the Packers made and the Chiefs. made a decision by trading away Tyree Kill for the Chiefs, by trading with Devonti Adams to the Packers.

They basically admitted we're going to try to extend our window a little bit. Like the core all-in phase is over and now we need to reset for three years. They re-signed Rogers, but honestly, Rogers took so much money in that deal. It's not exactly a Tom Brady discount to maximize a Super Bowl window. That's exactly what they should be operating like the Rams, less need, F then picks, our window is now. And it's exactly what you said. They're operating like the chiefs.

Your quarterback's not 25, 26 years old. Like, where you can't operate like that. Like, I don't care if it's going to put you in better shape three, four, five years from now. You should be trying to win right now. And they haven't been doing that. I'll push back on the defense, too. I feel like this has been a popular area of the football hipsters are all in on this Packers defense. I mean, I don't know what I'm missing with this.

There's a very mediocre defense last year. And you look at some of the performances they got. I mean, Devondre Campbell, what's more likely? He's an all pro again? or he's the guy he was the previous five years, which was a good player, but not an all pro. Rassul Douglas. I mean, anybody could have had Roussel Douglas the last three years. I like Roussel Douglas.

I think he can be a competent starter. Is he going to be intercepting these passes in high leverage situations week in and week out? So I pushed back on their defense that their defense is going to be great a little bit. You know, a couple of the kind of regression things are not working in their favor. They were the seventh healthiest defense last year, according to football outsiders. They were top eight in turnover rate last year. like those things are tough to sustain year over year. So might they be a little bit better?

Yeah, but I'm looking at an offense that's taking a step back and a defense that is probably, I think, going to be mediocre. So when you look, when you're saying the Vikings will in the division, are you just more down on the Packers and the Vikings or the Vikings will compete over the husk of the Bears corpse? Or are you just like up on the Vikings too? Yeah, yeah, it is more on the Packers. But I do look at the Vikings.

And, you know, like the breath of fresh air, like bump when the coach, everybody was like, oh, gosh, this coach, it's been eight years of Mike Zimmer. This guy hates the quarterback. He hates the offense. He hates everything about being the coach of the Vikings when that's sort of out of the building. And now you have a breath of fresh air and everyone's a little more relaxed. I do think that counts for a little bit of something.

And so I feel like if Kevin O'Connell can be like a mediocre play caller, if the offensive line can be. No, seriously. Yeah. Yeah, I think mediocre. I mean, he's not going to hate the offense. He's going to try to score points, which is kind of different than the way they've operated for many years. And so you look at that if the offensive line can be mediocre. I mean,

I look at it. I like guys who like when defensive coordinators have to game plan on Monday or Tuesday, it's like, who are the guys they have to worry about? And there are guys with the Vikings, you know, Justin Jefferson, Dalvin Cook. You know, I didn't mention the quarterback yet. The quarterback's fine. I was going to say, you said like, oh, the defensive coordinators, but you left out Kirk Cousins with Aaron Rogers. Listen, if the circumstances are good, we've seen Kirk Cousins can quarterback a top 10 offense. He's done it twice with the defense. He's done it twice with the Vikings. And so if those other things fall into place, I feel like their offense can be a top 10 offense. And on paper, you know, I disagree with how they built the team and the offseason

because I feel like they're going to be stuck in mediocrity. But if we're just talking about 2022, I think the moves help them. Zadarius Smith, Jordan Hicks, these are good players in the front seven. So they're thin. This could definitely backfire on me. Like I said, the Vikings have made me regret life decisions before that I feel like on paper, there's enough there for them to win. Can they win like 10 games. Maybe they tie the Packers. They're both 10 and 7 and they win the tie break. Maybe some luck goes their way. They go 11 and 6. That's what I'm talking about. I'm not talking about a huge difference. But at the odds you mention, where it's what minus 170? I think it's 3 to 1 basically. And plus 300 for the Vikings. Like there, there's no doubt in my

mind. I would rather have the Vikings in those circumstances. Okay. What's your second, what's your second hot take here? My second hot take. Can we like make? fun of the Cardinals a little bit more. Like, I feel like this has not gotten enough attention. I know they've been in the, I feel like they're going to be a disaster this year, you know, and I don't know how hot that is. That might be. Well, now that Kyler Murray has a video game clause, I think you missed this one by three days. You probably would have been better off. But now, now there's just a lot of memes. Yes. Yeah. They are the gift that keeps on giving. Really, they have provided us with a lot of entertainment. But I'm just looking like, if we

review their last nine months, it's kind of hilarious to me. You know, they totally fall apart. after 7-0 start. They finished the season, getting embarrassed by the Rams. That caps, say, a three-year stretch with Kingsbury, Kime, and Kiler, where they go 24, 24-1. 24-1.

Well, what do you do? When a team can get to 24-24-1, you have to extend the coach and the GM, don't you? I mean, how can you do anything else? So they extend the coach of the GM, the leaks out the building, just crushing, Kiley.

I mean, it's a quarterback ever got crushed, and we don't know exactly, of course, where the leaks are coming from. But do you remember, like, a quarterback just getting crushed by his own organization as much as Kyler Murray has in, like, the past seven months? Look, the video game thing I could talk about forever. I'm fascinated why they brought it up. I cannot get over the fact that they put a clause in his contract.

Like, you have to do four hours a week and not look at your computer. But even beyond that, the fact that in February, Chris Mortensen for Yisbain had that report that was based, like the Cardinals, like team sources say he's a finger pointer and has maturity issues. And then Kyler Murray says, believe that like, this is from the Morton's report, that Kyler Murray believed the team was scapegoating him for the playoff loss. And I'm like, this sounds like Ben Simmons

with the 76ers, honestly. Video games, playoff scapegoating. The whole thing is so bizarre. And then to your other point, if you just take Kyler and Murray out of this, serious question, what are the Cardinals good at? What position group is good?

It's a fantastic question. He sort of, I feel like, I feel like, I feel like Bance Joseph has done a good job as their defensive coordinator, and that's kind of helped Cliff Kingsbury and really Steve Kine. And then their offense is really, Kyler make a play, DeAndre Hopkins make a play. I mean, that's really what it's been. By the way, four hours is so funny. Like I was trying to think of what the funniest number could have been.

I mean, one hour, you can't do one hour. If you would have done like 20 hours, you know, the real film grinders like Peyton Manon would have 20 hours, but I'm 20 hours on Tuesday. Like four hours is just so funny. I mean, that's not even an hour a day of film study in the prep. So I'm with you. I mean, I look at it. They haven't produced the top 10 offense with Kyler Murray.

And if you look at the numbers, I don't know if you've dug into these on the fantasy show, but Kyler Murray without D'Andre Hopkins last year, completed 63% of his passes and averaged 6.2 yards per attempt. I mean, that's, I looked, I tried to see which quarterback does this most resemble? It was in between Andy Dalton and Sam Darnold last year. No shit. No, it was not.

Absolutely. Those are the most... Stop it. And this is, I mean, it's 200 in about 40 plays. So it's not like the biggest sample size, but it's not nothing. I mean, that's what, like six or seven games worth? And so D'Andre Hopkins out for the first six games of the season. They have three offensive linemen who are 32 years old or older.

I mean, they've spent back-to-back first-round picks on off-ball linebackers instead of addressing like all these other holes on the roster. And so I'm with you. Like, if you replace Kyler Murray with whoever you think is the most average quarterback in the NFL. I mean, I think everyone would just agree that this team's going to suck this year. And it's just like that little, there is that little possibility that Kyler Murray just kind of reaches that level because he is talented enough. If he, you know, if he's been putting in zero hours and he puts in four hours, that could make a huge difference. So DeAndre Hopkins is

suspended for six games. And so apparently Kyler Murray without DeAndre Hopkins is basically a mix of Andy Dalton, Sam Darnold. How much better can he get with the four hours of film without the video games? It's a good question. It might off, maybe it offsets it. Maybe, is he like a Baker Mayfield if he studies for four extra hours, like the Oklahoma connection? And I think the four hours is an average, right? So if he does like six, seven, eight, yeah, I think he's right. If he does six, seven or eight without the Andre, it could be like, Kyler, second half of the season, you can, you can chill a little. I don't know if it's an average. He's the most ridiculous clause since the Eddie Lacey weight gain stuff. I mean, this is a really.

So I think they're going to be like a seven or eight win team. And we're all going to look at this in December, January and go, that is like a train wreck of an organization right now. Yeah, they have no cornerbacks. They can't guard anyone there in the NFC West with Cooper Cup and DK. Metcalf and just Debo and they can't guard anyone. And I don't know if they can really block very well. And then Marquis Brown is supposed to replace Hopkins. It's the way he's a hamstring injuring the first day of camp.

None of this is good. He's the speed option of the hamstring. That's a bad start. So I completely agree. I kind of think the Cardinals are going to have top five pick. I think you're on the money here. Really that bad. Wow.

I'm not even willing to go that far. I mean this sincerely. there has not been one positive piece of news about the Arizona Cardinals in the year of our Lord 2020. Like, this has not happened. Nothing good has come out of this freaking team. Everything is one of those that you look back on. You're like, oh, yeah, this was coming, wasn't it? This is a reckoning for them.

They have old people. Okay. What's your third take here? That was really good, but I got to tell you, Shiel, the three weeks off, you really lost the window on being ahead of the Cardinals being bad thing. So give us, what are you ahead of the train on right now? I feel like I'm ahead of this one. I think that Josh McDaniels has put together the best PR campaign the league is since

seen since Mike McCarthy. I mean, Mike McCarthy's was legendary. You remember that, right? You know, he was visiting the pro football focus offices. He was up on analytics. He lies about it. He said he watched every game. He watched every tape from every game in the, I think, 2019.

And then like 90 seconds into his introductory press conference with the Cowboys. He was asked about that. And he was like, yeah, no, that was, I lied to get that. I mean, isn't that like the minimum you should do and apply? Like, just watching the team's games from the previous year. But yes, that too. And so he, you know, it was like, oh, Mike McCarthy's a changed by, well, Mike McCarthy's pretty much been the same guy. He was in Green Bay. And now I'm seeing Josh McDaniels. And I think you're higher on Josh McDaniels than I am, but I'm seeing him get a lot of positive pub and oh my gosh, you know, the Raiders. Like, do we not remember what this guy did when he,

when Bill Belichick wasn't holding his hand? I mean, he's had three years in the NFL. without Belichick. Okay, the first two. All right, but he was, how old was he when he was a head coach? How old is Josh McDaniels? Because he was a head coach like 12 years ago. 33. So people change. I agree. I'm open to the post. So he got the job at like 34. I'm open to the possibility that he's changed. I'm just not going to operate under the assumption that he has changed. I mean, those two years where he couldn't even get through his second year, he had a spying scandal. He got fired midseason. He clashed with the players, everything. Then the next year, he goes to the Rams as the offensive coordinator.

They have the worst offense in the NFL that year. And so, you know, he's done. He did a good job when he had the greatest quarterback of all time and the greatest coach of all time. He did a good job with Matt Castle. He did a good job with Mac Jones. I'll give him those two years. Those are the feathers in his cap.

I think if you want to be bullish about the Raiders and say, no, McDaniels is going to be a good coach. Those are the two years you point to, even those years. You have Bill Belichick there in whatever meetings. You can ask him any questions. can really shape the program. So I'm just skeptical about Josh McDaniels being like an above average head coach here in his second stand.

Again, maybe he will be. Maybe he's changed. Maybe he's a new man. But like, I am not giving that guy the benefit of the doubt. And I'm puzzled as to why everybody is giving him the benefit of the doubt here. This was a long time. I think this one's harsh. Andy Reid was still like three years from being like the coach of the Eagles when we're talking

about this. I mean, so much in life changes like a 12 years is a long. time. I mean, between coaching stints, I kind of am a sap, maybe. I kind of buy the fact that I, look, I think Josh McDonnell's backing out of the Colts job with this unheard of thing and then backing out to go back to being a coordinator. The fact that he did end up getting another job, I just feel like, there is something to the fact that Belichick was like, actually come back, I'll show you the actual. There's a reason I think all the Belichick assistants fail. Like, he doesn't actually care about making them successful. I mean, you could argue the Sean McVeigh coaching tree is already

more successful than Belichick's because none of Belichick's assistants have made a Super Bowl. McVeigh already, at least Zach Taylor for the Bengals did. I buy the idea that Belichick, I think Josh McDaniels said this. When McDaniels went to the Broncos job, Belichick wrote him out like four pages of questions to ask in the interview. And basically, so the Broncos sit him down and he just has literally four handwritten notes of just hear all the questions he was going to ask the ownership. And obviously because Belichick wrote the.

list. It was so much better than anything the other candidates came to. They were blown away. But McDaniels didn't like know that. Belichick told him what to say. I believe there's a difference between knowing what to say in an interview and then like 12 years go by and like actually I've internalized how to run an organization. Maybe I'm just a sap, but like I don't know. I'm, I think he's going to be pretty good. Now you know why I called it the greatest PR campaign. The League of since Mike McCarthy. I mean, listen to these points you're spewing out. I just been gaslit. No, again, I am open to the possibility. I just am not going to say that that's the most likely scenario. I do like that we're going to, I feel like we're going to get an answer right away.

I mean, they have the third hardest schedule in the NFL. If you look at Vegas projected win totals, we know the AFC West is going to be difficult. And I'm looking at that offensive talent. Like if you gave that talent to Andy Reid, Sean Payton, Sean McVeigh, that's a top 10 offense. I mean, Carr, Renfro, Adams, Wall, like the pieces are in place where if the offensive line is okay, that it should be a great offense. And so if he does that, you know, you can call me out in December and January and you can play this clip and say you were way off base. I just feel like, let's wait that long. Yeah, okay, good.

Yeah, September, October. You can spike the football early. That's fine. Let's settle down a little bit with the Josh McDaniels redemption tour. I like this. I think that last point you just made, I'm a little hesitant. I'm not going to lie when you're like, oh, we'll know quickly. But I will say, even though the Raiders are like the afterthought of the AFC West, it's like Russell Wilson, the Broncos, Herbert the Chargers.

and then, you know, the chiefs, Mahomes, and then we have to throw the Raiders in with Devante Adams, but McDaniels is this afterthought. I have to say with the Raiders, though, if you just looked at every team and, like, what are their options on third down? Like, third and, like, four. Devante Adams, Hunter Renfro and Darren Waller,

is incredible. And while I don't think the Raiders should be judged on whether they make the playoffs and, like, the hardest division we've probably ever seen to make the playoffs, I will say that it will be very interesting if this Raiders passing attack does not work after getting Devante Adams.

Yeah, it has to. I mean, it would reflect poorly on McDaniels. Derek Carr, you know, Lindsay Jones talked about in a recent episode. I mean, that contract is really a one-year commitment for all the numbers that were thrown out there. They can move on from that after this year. So I do think they're one of the more intriguing teams in the NFL.

I think they're going to be a fun team to watch because of what you mentioned offensively. I just want to see what happens when they, face a little adversity when it comes down to relating to players, connecting with players, the other things you have to do other than scheming and offense when you don't have Bill Belichick there with you anymore. Maybe he has changed. Maybe he'll be great. I believe people can change your old curmudgeon like house back in the day. That's 100% right. Yeah, no, I'll take on that role.

This is nice. I'll be the young optimist. Okay. So three takes here. Vikings win the NFC North. Cardinals are going to implode. Josh McDaniels is going to be bad again. Which of these are you most confident in it and which of these are you most concerned coming back to butt you in the ass? I think the Cardinals one I feel pretty good about in that. I mean, I would be very surprised if, you know, their ceiling, I feel like is maybe they win a playoff game. And so I don't think that one's going to come back to crush me. And I might be wrong about it, but I don't think there's a high ceiling there. The Vikings one, you know, makes me very nervous. I don't want to be in the camp of bed and gone. Kurt Cousin. So you need to tell me like after this, do I go with that

take in the weeks ahead, do I just kind of just chill out and say, let's rethink that a little bit and go back to the drawing part. Okay, that sounds good. Sheal, I think this is the beginning of a beautiful friendship. A beautiful old, curmudgeonly friendship, but a friendship nonetheless. Sounds good. Thank you, Sheel.

Thank you, Carlis for production help. Thank you most of all to everybody for listening. This is the Ringer NFL show, and we'll see you on Friday.