The Ringer NFL Show - Carroll Out, Vrabel Fired, and Strengths and Weaknesses of Playoff Teams | Dual Threat

Episode Date: January 11, 2024

Nora Princiotti and Steven Ruiz open by discussing the news of Pete Carroll stepping away from coaching and Mike Vrabel being fired by the Titans. Then, they conclude the episode by breaking down the strengths and weaknesses of each playoff team. The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please check out theringer.com/RG to find out more, or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Hosts: Nora Princiotti and Steven Ruiz Producer: Stefan Anderson Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Musical Elements: Devon Renaldo Social: Kiera Givens and Eduardo Ocampo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, everyone. This is Craig Horlebeck from the Ringer Fantasy Football Show. Join me, Danny Hifetz and Danny Kelly every Monday, Wednesday and Friday to help you win your draft, win your league, and most importantly, avoid that last place punishment. Follow the Ringer Fantasy Football Show on Spotify. Hello and welcome to Coolpe. I'm Norfolk, and we have a breaking news packed show today. We are recording on Wednesday, January 10th. It's a little bit after 4 p.m. Eastern time. I feel very compelling. to say exactly when we were doing this, because it has been a crazy couple of days as the NFL coaching carousel begins turning. Yesterday, the Titans fired Mike Brable, which seemed like it was going to be the most

out of the blue coaching decision coach firing that happened to this cycle. And then this afternoon, the Seahawks announced that Pete Carroll was not fired, but was out as head coach and is moving quote unquote up. stairs into some sort of advisory role. Pete Carroll is actually mid press conference as we are recording this right now. He said that he agreed with ownership that it made sense for him to step back from the head coaching job. He doesn't totally know what his new role will entail. It seems like we have to read between the lines to figure out what actually happened here because I'm shocked that this news broke today.

What is your read on the Pete Carroll situation, Stephen? First of all, leave it to the NFL to stretch out what used to be Black Monday, a one-day thing, into a three-day event now, like they did with the draft. And it started, I mean, with Arthur Smith, it started like two minutes after midnight. That's true. They dominate the calendar. Sunday into Monday. And now we're still going.

It's black Wednesday now. We had Black Tuesday. We had Black Monday. We had Black late Sunday night. suppose. No, no, no, no. This is what it is. This is what it is. It's Black Monday still. And then you wait till Wednesday for the old guys. So it's like gray Wednesday. And then Mike Rable went out on Tuesday. So it was Salt and Pepper Tuesday. Got it. I like that. I like Salt and Pepper Tuesday.

The NFL firing cycle presented by Just for Men. I love it. This is like marketing and action. This is genius. You're welcome, Roger. This is a great concept. Somebody's got to pick it up. I'm really surprised. Should I answer your question now? Yeah, tell me what you think about it. And you said something about hair care products.

And that was the end. No, I think I don't think this is that big of a move, to be honest with you, as long as Carol isn't just like a figurehead and he does have some say over the direction of the organization because like it feels like that's what he evolved into as the head coach. So this isn't too much of a transition period, especially if they hire Dan Quinn,

who has been brought up as the overwhelming favorite for this job. And it would just make so much sense at this point. And it feels like Dan Quinn is waiting for the right job. He has the luxury of doing so, like being in that spot in Dallas, where you know your defense is going to be good because you have all these stars. You're always going to be in consideration for a head job. I think this is the job he's been waiting for for his second chance.

And he's working alongside a guy, if he does take the job, he's working alongside a guy that he's worked with in the past. So I think you're going to have the same feel around the organization. You'll probably see some of the same coaches stick around if they do stick with Quinn and they do stick with Pete as an architect working with John Schneider. So I was shocked like everyone else. It's going to be different without him on the sideline, but I don't think like Seattle was going to change. That makes sense.

And particularly if Quinn is the choice there, it makes a lot of sense, as you said, every insider seemed to bring up the possibility of likelihood that Dan Quinn would be a presumptive favorite to take over in that job within minutes of the Zahawks making their announcement. I do, I don't want to treat that as total fea completely just because there's something

about these surprise moves happening within a cycle where the names are a little more high profile potentially at least than we're used to. You know, we don't know exactly how interested in making an NFL return Jim Harbaugh is, but that's a name that's involved in this coaching cycle. Bill Belichick obviously is still under contract in New England, but we're expecting that to change relatively quickly. The fact that he might be available is going to change the way that some teams act,

presumably. The funny thing is now, I mean, Pete Carroll is not available at least. least presumably to other teams, although I wonder how done of a deal that is just because he's spoken so recently about wanting to continue coaching that I kind of wonder if they're projecting that, oh yeah, he's definitely moving upstairs when it's a little bit of a, well, if he gets a great offer another opportunity, then maybe he'll take it. But otherwise, he's 72 years old and we could still use his help. But Quinn definitely seems like the favorite. There's just something about the timing that at least makes me feel like we should be open to the question of did they do this in part because there are some names potentially out there in this cycle that are just not normally out there.

Do you think there's any possibility that whether it's John Schneider, whether it's ownership, has some colonel in the back of their mind about a Harbaugh or even a Belichick or just one of those types of names that's not. Dan Quinn? Like, I think we have to wait and see what Pete's actual role in the front office is, if he does end up taking this role that they're talking about. But no, I wouldn't be surprised if they go outside of like the Pete Carroll family tree, so to speak, because John Schneider isn't from that tree. I know they worked hand in hand, but he came over from Green Bay. And I think he might like go back to that well if he had his choice of head coach.

Because it wasn't like, oh, I was. the GM with all the power and I hired Pete Carroll. It was kind of like, oh, these guys were brought in together. And Pete Carroll had, he had more clout in that situation than Schneider did. So it will be interesting to see where Schneider goes with this. And if the dynamic in Seattle change is where it's more like what we see in Philly where it's clear who's running that ship, it's Howie Roseman. And he has a head coach that I think people, I don't want to detract from Nick Siriani, but I think people will say like he's more of a figurehead type. Like even that's harsh.

I don't want to say that. But it seems like he's more answering to Harry Roseman and not working hand in hand like we've seen in other places around the league. Well, I mean, Roseman's outlasted multiple head coaches. Pete was so long tenured in Seattle that that was obviously not the case there. But given the fact that, I mean, he's a lot older than John Schneider. So that's part of it too. But now Schneider is the veteran guy who,

kind of gets to be the tenured dude who is really, really in control there, especially because there's a lot of messiness going on with with that ownership group, too. So you get the sense that Schneider really is entrenched. And especially now that he's had a couple good, good draft classes and seems to sort of be on a high stretch, that he's accrued a lot of sway. And so we'll see how they use it. Now, if it's, if it is Dan Quinn, which I have to say I like, I like it. I mean, I don't know how, I don't know how a lot of Seahawks fans would feel about that just in the sense that it's maybe not the most exciting. I don't think they would like it. I think they were getting tired of, I don't, I think they were already kind of tired of Carol's, I would say his outdated philosophy,

quote unquote. I don't believe it's like terribly outdated. But I do think they were kind of, they are, they already had one foot out the door with him after the Russell. I just wonder if there's a world where some of those concerns are a little bit, would be a little bit overstated because maybe, you know, say Quinn does get the job, I wonder if that does come a little bit hand in hand if they did go in a defensive direction with Shane Waldron becoming a bigger and bigger presence in the running of that team. And he's someone obviously coming out of the McVeigh tree who does. have a little bit more of a

younger, newer forward thinking philosophy. Now, look, if we're talking, if all of those are euphemisms for like fourth down decision making, then like Sean McVeigh is not necessarily the totem that he would be held up to be as like a young

forward thinker. So, but still, just in terms of I like the way that Waldron has run that offense. that combination does seem like two smart coaches who make good schematic choices. And then the other thing is that, yeah, you should go get the head coach who's the best possible fit for the job and who you think is going to do the best job. But if Pete Carroll is going to be there, there has to be some consideration given to how is he going to work with the new guy?

because if you go completely out of the family, insert, I mean, insert Jim Harbaugh, right? Like, what's that going to be like if Pete Carroll's upstairs? Or even like Belichick's like, any of like the golden geese candidates, I feel like would have that type of clash with him. Right. So there's a lot of moving pieces just because there is some small part of me because literally a couple weeks ago, Pete Carroll was talking about how energized he feels

still as a head coach, how invested he is in the job, that wonders if there's any wiggle room in the decision for him to stay with the organization where if he got another opportunity, he might take it. But if that sticks, then I do think it narrows down the candidate pool pretty substantially. Yeah, I think it narrows it down to one person. And that's why we heard Dan Quinn's name so readily so quickly. If you're Dan Quinn, are you cool, great, done deal? Or do you want to poke around a little bit and see if there's a different opportunity, potentially somewhere with a clearer quarterback situation,

just because I wonder what this means for Gino if Pete Carroll is moving on? He has over $17 million in dead cat money if they wanted to move on before next season. But they're getting to the point in that contract where it's realistic that they could want to make a change, want to find someone younger, want to find someone for the long term. I think Dino's played well, so I would think twice about it. But if they're moving on from Carol, I wonder if there will be a more holistic wiping of the slate. what do you think about the attractiveness of that job for Dan Quinn or for somebody else and to how Gino fits into that picture? I think Quinn needs to poke around the Seattle job.

Like I think he needs to not take its sight unseen just because of he's working with someone he's worked with before because I don't care how Seattle's framing this. This is at the very least, if it's not a firing, it's a demotion because it's being framed as him moving upstairs and taking on a different role, but he's had that in his title already. Let me get the exact title. He was already executive VP of football operations. So he's not adding a new role.

He's just dropping the head coach role, which to me sounds like a demotion. It sounds like maybe, especially with like the ownership up in the air still, like maybe Pete Carroll and John Schneider don't have the sway they once did. And if I'm Dan Quinn, like that's the reason why I would want that job

is because I have the security of knowing that, like, my bosses are guys that have worked with me in the past. And I already know what to expect from them. It would have to depend a lot about a lot on the Schneider relationship because it does seem like, I mean, again, and he's talking right right now, Pete is saying this happened because I want him being John Schneider to have this chance. That was the biggest fact. And maybe that's some face saving a little bit if he was pushed out. But that's the type of talk that you hear about, you know, someone like Todd Bowles, right, taking over as a coach in Tampa a little bit less often. I can't think of another time when I've heard a coach be like,

I'm relinquishing this role or being pushed out of this role so that our general manager can be, be the head honcho. And now those two have a very longstanding partnership and are close and have run that team together for a long time. So if there was anyone who was going to do that and kind of say like, yes, we've been partners, but I'm the more senior person and I have kind of run the show, but John deserves the chance to really be the top person organizationally. Seattle's a very reasonable place for that to happen. It's just not, it's really not every day that you have a head coach on his way out being like, well, this happened because our general manager should run everything and make every decision,

including the selection of the next head coach, which Carol said he's not going to have any input into. And then it'll totally be Schneider's call. So I agree with you that if it were Quinn, more important than poking around other jobs is poking around what are the specific dynamics of the Seattle job. But what it looks like is the buck stops with John Schneider. and that's probably likely to be the case if Quinn gets the job

or candidates interested in that job would have to be okay with that. Which probably a lot of people would be. I mean, John Schneider has a pretty good reputation both as a personnel guy, but also just as an easygoing dude. Obviously, the golden geese don't want to have to answer to anybody.

So that does, signal that that's sort of a pool that they're operating within. I think that the question of Gino Smith, I think that's more where if I'm Quinn, I would want to look around and weigh my options. Like if Los Angeles is offering me a job and I can work with Justin Herbert, like, I'm taking that over Gino Smith as highly as I think of Gino Smith. But I do think that speaks to how unsettled this organization is at like the three top levels. Obviously, there's a vacancy at head coach now, but like, there's a little weirdness around the GM spot after Carol's comments and after Carol kind of is getting forced out of the head coaching job or however you want to frame it.

And then, again, the team needs to be sold and like the ownership is in limbo right now. That doesn't sound like a head coaching job I would want. I don't know how attractive this job is. But if I am Dan Quinn, I'm looking at the pool of candidates this year and I'm looking at how stacked it is of like the names on it. and I'm worried about a musical chair situation and I don't want to pass up on an opportunity that maybe is like one that I have been waiting for. It's a tough call for like Quinn

more so that I think like Seattle hiring him. As good as the regular season is, there is nothing like NFL's Super Wildcard weekend. Six games, three days. For these teams, it's win or go home. But you'll always have a spot in the playoffs with Fandul, America's number one sports book. Fanduel has so many ways for you to pick up a W.

It's supposed to be really cold in Buffalo this weekend. And Steelers at Bills, definitely going to be affected by the weather. Bills still favored by 10 points. That seems maybe a little steep, given the fact that having to emphasize the ground game probably plays into the Steelers' hands. Also, just going to be a low-scoring game. 10 point spread, probably hard to make up.

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first online real money wager only, $10 first deposit required, bonus issued as non-witrable bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook. Fandwell.com. Well, so maybe let's use that as a jumping off point to get into the Mike Grable situation, which came out on what did you call it, salt and pepper Tuesday, that Titans owner Amy Adams-Strunk had made the decision to fire Vrabel. First of all, there was a whole hullabaloo about the fact that he was not traded, which the Titans explained as having been too complicated and working it out between potential suitors, Brable's contract, Brable's willingness to accept a trade, would have put

them behind the curve on going after other candidates, which I thought was an interesting thing. I mean, they literally posted about this on the team website about why they hadn't traded him, which I thought was an interesting sort of tacit admission that everyone assumes people want to hire Mike Rable. I was shocked by this one, too. That's like the Lamar thing last year, when the teams were putting on their official sites,

articles on why they didn't want Lamar Jackson, like the Falcons did this and the Panthers did this. Just really strange that teams are doing this now. Well, so then do you think that this will work out in a similar way? Is somebody going to get Mike Rable as their head coach going forward and make everyone look silly in the same way that Lamar has? I mean, I wouldn't be surprised. I know a lot of people are talking about Harbaugh and the Raiders.

I think Mike Rable is the perfect Raiders coach. Okay. I think that's the higher. Like, it just makes so much sense. Make the pitch. You're Rabel, you're in the meeting. You're staring across the P.F. Chang's table at a century. bowl cut. What are you saying?

Wait, hold up. I have to pitch Mike Vrable. It should be the other way around. I should have to pitch that guy across the table to Mike Vrable. That's the, that's the hurdle that we have to get over is those two meeting. I don't know how that meeting ends. I want to see that handshake.

Yeah. I want like biometrics from both guys on the handshake. You know what I mean? The dots. The next gen stats, dots. The next gen stats. I want like infrared. I want to know what's Davis's heartbeat. I want to know the group strength of the shake. I want to know everything. I want next gen stats.

All right. We'll get, we'll get aura rings for Mark Davis and for Mike Brable and we'll put him in a room together and we'll track the data and see what happens. I wonder if there would be do you think there would be some trepidation going back to the quasi New England well,

although arguably that's not actually Mike Brable's coaching tree, but he has a lot of that affiliation. Obviously, Josh McDaniels was worked out so horribly. I wonder if I wonder if that feels a little poisoned or is that an unfair connection

to draw between McDaniel and Braybill, McDaniels? Ah, that, I think it's a question worth asking. But then again, I think we have to think about... Can I just say this is nothing to do with anything? It's really frustrating to me that there is a McDaniel, a McDaniels, and a McDonald's.

It's so annoying. It's, I just like, saying names. I live in fear. Anyway, sorry, I cut you off. Continue. No, I don't think so. I don't think like, like I think, I think, I think, I think Davis will think about it, but I think Davis is the type of owner who isn't, like, scared off of, scared off by past mistakes. I think the John Grudenhier, the John Grudenhire is an example of that, I would say. And it seems like he's going to make the same mistake you made last time and

buyer his interim head coach who turned the team around to get a flashier or higher. But the one thing I would say to Mark Davis is I just Googled Mike Frable Viser. And to my knowledge, according to Google Images, he's never won a Viser. So I think they're safe. Few. Few. So the Raiders, I mean, I wonder if the Chargers and the big question there to me is how much are they willing to spend just because I think in a lot of ways that's an incredible

incredibly attractive job just because of Justin Herbert. We've seen in the past guys like Sean Payton who ostensibly have choices, be really, really interested in the potential ability to work with Justin Herbert. But the one thing that I just don't think anybody really knows a clear answer to is how much are they willing to spend? Because this is a team that's used to paying their head coach four or five million bucks a year. and some of these guys in the cycle are going to be asking for four times that. And I just, I don't have an answer for you on whether or not that's going to be a real impediment or if they're going to say, you know what, we ought to make this happen with Herbert.

We've got a special quarterback. Let's just pay up and get the guy we want. Rable to me is interesting just because I think if they were to fall short of someone like a Harbaugh in that way, I wonder if he's a little bit like a little bit like a poor man's harbough. Yeah. And I could see, you know, if they're going after a disciplinary and a program builder,

someone who's good with players, but who you would not consider like a traditional sort of players coach in that mold. I think it's, I think that's interesting. And then obviously New England, if they move away from Bill Belichick, I think he's an incredibly interesting candidate for the Patriots, just because it seems like the air,

parent is assumed to be Gerard Mayo. But the one thing that you've got to be, that I think they have to be pretty seriously concerned about there is, is one, just the fact that you're actively choosing to continue the Belichick lineage in a way that doesn't step away from that sort of ethos of how you run a team and how you play football, which sometimes looks a little bit incongruent with how you win in 24 and then two just the inexperience and i and rable does kind of shortcut both of those things like first of all obviously he's been a head coach he's got a lot he's been in the playoffs he's had different quarterbacks he's he's got not only experience as a coordinator more than mayo has but

obviously he's he's been in the top job for a long time and then two you know he's been in college he's really more developed under Romeo Cronnell and there's a little bit more like influence in his background than just New England. And yet he's also this sort of like iconic player. So I just wonder if the fact that he's out there is in real time sort of changing the way that the Patriots are thinking about how assuming they have a vacancy, how they're going to fill it. So I think he will have a lot of opportunities.

just to step back, the way to me it seems like they got to this point in Tennessee has to do with the org chart. And it came as such a surprise, and in the way that they talked about it, the thing that really stood out to me is, you know, Strunk releases this like very long,

very sort of wordy statement about everything that had happened. And what she went in depth on was, and I'll read it, as the NFL continues to innovate and evolve, I believe the team's best position for a sustained success will be those who empower an aligned and collaborative team across all football functions. Last year, we began a shift in our approach to football leadership

and made several changes to our personnel to advance that plan. As I continued to assess the state of our team, I arrived at the conclusion that the team would also benefit from the fresh approach and perspective of a new coaching staff. So the way that I read that is not really Mike Grable got fired for performance. It's got a winning record. They made the playoffs three times. But more so because they've had this push pull over the last couple of years of whether

or not they're truly in rebuilding mode. And it seemed like John Robinson, the former GM, kick started that. In 2022, when they traded away AJ Brown, then that in some ways backfired because of his success in Philly. And also because of how well the Titans started the following season. And then Rable, who hadn't liked that trade, which I mean, no coach is going to like when you trade away their star receiver. But he had not been pleased with that. kind of made his case for, no, we should continue trying to compete now. And then at the end of that season, the team crashed and burned.

Obviously, this was not a successful season. And so it seems like, and now that Rand Carthon is the general manager there, they're fully committing to the rebuild. And my assessment, at least based on that statement, was that Brable got fired because he just couldn't get on board with that, couldn't or wouldn't. Does that seem right to you? Or is there a different, I mean, how do you think we got to this place?

I mean, yeah, because that seems to be the track record in Tennessee over, I would say over the last six years, seven years, maybe eight years, whenever. I think John Robinson came to Tennessee in 2016, 2017. Mike Mularky was already the head coach. They go to the playoffs. They actually win a playoff game and he fires Marquis to get his own head coach in there, which, like, I don't think that was a bad move. No one was complaining about the move even though they won the playoff game. But then you have this vicious cycle where you have this overlap all the time where Robinson hires Fribele. Frable kind of wins that power struggle.

That's the kind of how it was framed. And now Rand Carthin comes in and now you have another overlapping situation where the head coach had another GM and that. And now you have that situation again where Rand Carthin presumably is going to be in charge of leading the search. and he's going to hire his guy, and you have to wonder, like, if things go south for this new head coach, who's going to be the first to be like, probably the GM who was there before,

the last failure. And it will just lead to another situation, another overlap situation with the new GM. It's just, I don't know, it's tough. I feel like if you are going to, if you are going to transition into this new way of running the team, like the owner said, I think it should have started.

She said it started in 2020. 22, but I think it should start it with a clean break. That's what they were going to do. And that's not what they did. Like just, again, if you look at the last couple of years with the Titans, in some ways, I think they're sort of victims of their own overachievements. Yeah. At times, because they've been doing this back and forth dance with where are they really

as a franchise? Because I think the most telling move was that AJ Brown trade. And that really said, we have to prioritize the future over the present. We have to get younger. We have to get cheaper. We have to experience a little bit of short-term pain for the long-term, which is a philosophy and sort of like a GMing attitude that I think in general, I tend to look kindly on.

I think the consensus tends to look kindly on. And the specifics of the A.J. Brown trade just because that is such a special player, are maybe a little bit different, but in general, I think that's responsible GMing. But then in December of the following season, when Robinson got fired, they were winning the division.

Rable was somehow, you know, they were playing good defense and they were staying afloat on offense and, you know, with every, Every carry Derek Henry got, it was like, oh, man, what's going to happen? When are injuries and age going to catch up to this team? But for a time, he was making a case and then it all fell apart. And but it seems like by that point, some indecision that manifested itself in the decision to fire Robinson when they did.

but then also in the off season, in this last off season where they mostly were looking towards the future, but they didn't, you know, they could have, they could have really blown it up by trying to trade Tannahill, trade Derek Henry, like trade those big names. They just didn't quite go there. No.

And they added Hopkins. You're right. They added Hopkins. They went, like, it felt to me, like, the Panthers situation from a couple years ago when Matt Ruhle kind of came in and it was like, are you rebuilding? Like, you get rid of Cam Newton and save $18 million. That makes perfect sense. And then you turn around and give that money to Teddy Bridgewater, which makes no sense, like for a rebuild.

Right. And I think, like, that's what we're, like you said, like, it's a mixed message we're getting from this team. Like, what are you guys doing? And I think that as good as Rable is, I do think it's justifiable as an owner to look at this the last couple years and be like, this is not. We're not on a good track right now and something needs to change. Do I agree with the thing that needed to change was firing the head coach?

Not necessarily, but I wouldn't be surprised if this move ends up, like, working out. Because, like, as good as Brayville is, it wasn't working out. Because the thing that's interesting is, like, I think, okay, if we separated into the buckets of coaching versus personnel decision making, I think coaching has been more superlative in Tennessee than the personnel decision making. And that's mostly due to the sort of indecision about, okay, are you really staking a claim to a rebuild or is it something murkier than that?

But the rebuild is a good idea. They need the rebuild. Like, I mean, now more than ever, obviously, because Derek Henry is a free agent, Ryan Tanna Hill has dealt with all these injuries. is it's obviously completely time whether or not that is around Will Levis or if they feel like that's not going to be it is a bigger and longer term question. But like the rebuild is the right thing. So even though I think Mike Brable was doing a better job getting more out of less with his players,

it's sort of like if he was truly against the rebuild and wasn't going to be willing or able to oversee that, then I guess I get it. But it's, It's just, it's tough because he's a good coach. And those don't grow on trees. So it's sort of like, it's too bad if we take, not their word for it, but if we sort of read between the lines and are correct in that, that the reason this happened was less because of his actual job performance and more an inability to get aligned in terms of the direction of the organization. we don't have eyes in the room, so it's hard to say whether or not that's letting egos get in the way,

bad people skills, whatever, or if it truly had to happen. But it's just a shame because Mike Rable seems like a good coach to oversee a rebuild. Although, obviously, if he was completely unwilling to do it, then here we are. But, like, imagine you're Robert Kraft

and you've just heard that, that conversation we just had about a coach who is getting more out of his players, but the problem is his personnel vision isn't necessarily in line with where the league is going. I've seen this movie before. Yeah, and the defense still plays really hard and it plays really well, and it's well designed, and we just don't have a quarterback, and we don't have the skill players because we made some questionable decisions. Like, that sounds like a movie we just watched in New England for the last three years,

and it played out just like it did in Tennessee. So I do think if there is one Belichick-Rabel connection that would scare me off upon the Patriots, it's what has happened in the last two years with both of those guys. It kind of looks the same. I think there's a couple caveats, though. One, Rabel probably doesn't have quite the concentration of power to necessarily go and demand a lot of personnel input. That's fair. And he hasn't had it for that long if he has had it.

Right. Two, he has, he is connected to younger offensive coaches. His network, I mean, you know, for better for worse, like does Arthur Smith automatically become his offensive coordinator wherever he goes? Those two have obviously, they've worked together. They are very good friends. You go to any NFL event. Mike Frable and Arthur Smith are like sitting next to each other at dinner. It's a little bit of a different pool than the Josh McDaniels, Bill O'Brien, not Patricia, then what appears to be the

Belichick pool of people he's willing to hire as top assistants. So maybe, and I'm not saying specifically Arthur Smith, although actually, Arthur Smith is an offensive coordinator in New England. I can't say that I totally hate that idea. And then the third thing is,

Rable is an odd. It's hard to put him in a box because I would not say that he is like a players coach. But players do really like him. And they play hard for him. And he does seem to have a good way of convincing the guys on on his team that he is going to put them in positions to succeed, which is something that I think Belichick has really struggled with lately, where there's just not a lot of trust.

And so I do, my point is that I do think he's meaningfully different from, from Belichick in some of those ways. But I, but you got to ask the question for sure. Yeah. Especially with like, I feel like this class of like new head coaching candidates, like I'm counting Dan Quinn or even like Jim Schwartz who has been a head coach, obviously Harbaugh, Belichick, Brable.

There I throw the name out, Brandon Staley. I think he's probably a defensive coordinator at best next year. But a lot of them are defensive coordinators, which is not something that like we're used to. We're used to it being a bunch of like offensive scheme boys from the McVeigh or Shanahan Hedry. And really

it's Bobby Slowick maybe and I think he's still like a year away. But no one's getting excited for Frank Smith from Miami. I think it's like Mike McDonald's that's because he has the world's most generic name. That's true. And I have no idea. I'm sorry, but no one is ever getting excited about Fred Smith.

This is our head coach, Fred Smith. Like, Fred Smith hoisting the Lombardi trophy winning his 18th Super Bowl as head coach of the Los Angeles Chargers. Like, not happening. No, it's not happening. But even the retread, even the retread candidates, like, those are all defensive coaches for the most part. Like Belichick, Dan Quinn, Jim Schwartz, like I said, Frable. These are all defensive coaches.

So, like, I feel like this is a different pool of candidates than we've seen over the last year. And I do wonder how that changes things. And I wonder which organizations kind of go for the big names and which ones go with the trends we've seen over the last couple years and go for Brian Johnson. Or maybe they do take a chance on Bobby Sloick a year earlier than I would personally. Do you have any, do you have any feces on that? Like who might go in what sort of, who might be looking for what sort of archetype? I think the Jaguars and I think the Falcons first and foremost, the Raiders are always tough because of Mark Davis's financial situation.

But I think the Jaguars and the Falcons are the ones that are going for the big names, no matter what. I agree with you that I think, like, the Chargers have been linked. with those big names because of Justin Herbert and people just assume the coaches that get to hand pick their jobs are going to want him. But it's it's the coaches that can't pick their jobs are going to want him. And it's also, I think there's an overwhelming assumption that the chargers need a program builder because they're cursed. Right.

And they like Mike Rable, I feel like is what you would want to bring in after the problems we saw with that defense. The, uh, the powder blue problem. as you. The powder blue problem. I love to point out. I will say this about Mike Rabel. When he took over the Titans,

their primary uniforms, they had white helmets and powder blue jerseys. And that changed in two years. Back to Navy. So he would make the change you've been clamoring for. Something to consider.

But so, okay, so the Jaguars and obviously, you know, but you think that they, in theory, would be interested in something big and splashy. Belichick, Harbaugh, I think. I wonder if you have to justify the decision to move on if they did.

I don't know why I said the Jaguars. I think the Jaguars were a team that was a team that could, if they had fired the coach, I think they would have been in the market for one. But I think that we're having these conversations all over the place, like the fact that Seattle pushed out P. Carroll, I think it's because of the big names. I don't think it turns out like this. I don't even think there are whispers about even Mike McCarthy I've seen his name thrown about if they lose. We've talked about it.

I think if Nick Siriani loses, I think the Eagles will have a conversation. It's like hardball and Belichick are out there. I think the Jaguars had that conversation already with internally as evidenced by them cleaning house on the defensive side of their staff. So I think it's going to force conversations. And I do think we're going to go against the type of hiring the young offensive minds this time around. and the big names are going to, I think they're going to steal the show. And I don't know if that's a good thing.

I think there's a reason why all... It'll be really fascinating. I think there's a reason why all of these veteran head coaches are available. And I just think the league is going away from that archetype. I do think Braybill is the one that kind of blends the generations. And maybe that's why... Again, he's really hard to categorize, which is, I think, to his credit in a lot of ways.

but it also makes it hard to predict who would be really, really, you know, who's, he seems like he could be almost anybody's second choice, but it's hard to pinpoint unless you sort of follow the New England trail exactly who's going to be like, oh, let's go get Mike Brable right now. Like, that's the guy that we need. To your larger point, it's just, it's a fascinating coaching cycle. I mean, in the last 48 hours, it's just, it's taken on a totally new. dimension. And if those, if those teams do end up being enamored by the big fish and going in

that direction, one, to what you just said, it'll be a really interesting test case of if it feels like the league is moving away from those types, but because some big names became available this offseason and teams went in that direction. Does it work out? And what do we learn based on that? And then the other thing is just that if you're someone like Ben Johnson or Bobby Sloick or Fred Smith, this changes the outlook, right? I mean, Ben Johnson at one point a month or so ago seemed like the bell of the ball,

the potential bell of the ball of this this coaching cycle. And oh my gosh, you know, what are we talking about? Ben Johnson would never go coach the Panther is he's going to have so many options. He's going to deal with that kind of dysfunction. What are you talking about? If Ben Johnson wants to be a head coach this year with these people, this is how you become head coach of the Carolina Panther. So it's just a really interesting sort of butterfly effect.

Get ready to learn 510 quarterback, buddy. And Adam Silver meme to him. Get fluent. But no, the funny thing about the funny thing about the friends of McVeigh thing that, like, everyone mocked. We all mocked it. We were like, this is like nepotism slash cronyism. Like, this is the problem with NFL hiring. The thing is like, it all kind of worked out.

Like, Zach Taylor went to a Super Bowl. You know what happened? The thing that like, and I guess I'm grateful it happened. happened because we got a lot of good jokes off based on this formula. It was the flippin Cardinals. Putting out that press release being like, and Cliff Kingsbury is friends with Sean McVay. And then one, that was just an absurd thing to do.

And then Cliff was not good. And based on mostly that, the meme that all you have to do to become a head coach is no Sean McVeigh and teams are hiring all these unqualified people based on that kind of stuck. But then

now, obviously, Kingsbury is sort of the exception, but also they didn't really work together. They just kind of knew each other and they're also like both young and wear tight pants. Yeah, they just had similar vibes. They just both like wanted to have fancy glass houses.

They take shots. hours daily. Right. Other than Cliff Kingsbury, who again didn't really know Sean McVeigh that well, basically everybody who has followed that philosophy has gotten a good coach or coordinator or whatever. Like, it's mostly worked out.

And Cliff won 11 games. That's true. That's true. Great. You know who hasn't won 11 games since 2017? Doug Peterson. I'll just leave it at that. Really pushing a Doug Peters.

Are you advocating for the Jaguars to fire Doug Peterson and hire Cliff Kingford? Absolutely not. No. Hey, hey, him replacing Press Taylor, I wouldn't hate it. Someone else is buying a one-way ticket to Thailand. All right. Again, the coaching stuff this year is just shaping up to be really, really interesting. So I don't feel bad that we've spent 40 minutes talking about it on this podcast.

we did plan to have another whole segment about, you know, the playoff teams. So we'll run through that when we get back. But let's take a quick break before that. All right. We are back on dual threat. Obviously, we just spent a considerable amount of time talking about the coaches. But I think it was worthwhile. The other thing that we were going to do today is go AFC and then NFC through the playoff teams.

and do strengths and weaknesses. What's the reason that team could win the Super Bowl? What's the reason they could be undone? And the way that we decided to divvy it up was we'll do AFC first and then NFC. For the AFC, I'm going to give the strengths, and then Stephen's going to give the weaknesses. And then for the NFC, we're going to flip it. So you'll do the strengths and I'll do the weaknesses.

Sound good? Yeah. The Baltimore Ravens. Greatest Strength. Little quarterback named Lamar Jackson. Just your league leading MVP candidate has taken his game to a new level this season. He's fourth and success rate overall,

10th and EPA per play. Eighth in CPOE. I tried really hard to find one measure that really encapsulates it, but you can't because the thing about Lamar this year is that he has proven what we all, maybe not all, but many people long expected, which was that if you emphasized the drop back passing game

in this Baltimore offense, gave him some real weapons, the run game would stay just as potent, and the passing game would get a lot more exciting. That's exactly what's happened. The run game, it's still top five. It's always top five with Lamar, but he's just a special player. to me he is the MVP of the league.

It seems pretty likely that will be awarded. And he is the most threatening quarterback in these playoffs based on how he's performed this year. And that's a field that includes Patrick Mahomes, but I really still think that that's true. Yeah, I mean, when you want to win in the playoffs, the three things you want, a good defense, which they have,

a run game, which they have, obviously, because of Lamar and party. and then you want a good quarterback. And they have all three of those things. And they're the one team that I think has the balance that I think every team wants. Like when we look at the teams that were expected to win the Super Bowl, like the reason why they aren't in that position, a lot of them, like the bills and even the Chiefs and the Eagles is because they don't have that balance.

And this is the one team that I think does without having a question mark at quarterback, which will get you in the NFC. So this one was tough for me. finding a reason why, like finding a weakness. Instead, I found I picked out a reason why they're not going to win the Super Bowl. And my reasoning is because they could get spagged. And that's the best I could come up with because I cannot find a weakness on this team. But I will say this, Lamar Jackson has struggled against cover zero shells.

So I don't think he's seen a lot of them. But you go up against spags and he's looking at the film from all season and he sees these teams aren't blitzing Lamar. And I think he thinks in his head, nothing else is worth. worked, why don't I just go back to what I do best? And why don't I just blitz the hell out of him? And I think that's the one question, Todd Monkin as an OC has to answer, is will he provide answers for those looks? And I don't know.

We just haven't seen it. So to get to that point, Kansas City would have to feed the dolphins and then win one more. And then they would play in the championship game in Baltimore. I'd still, I would like Baltimore in that game, but it would be a rule. really interesting test case. And you're right. Maybe maybe the one thing the Lamar sort of hasn't checked off. Although in general, his performance against the Blitz has been very strong and has been one of those things where you get to see the proof of concept in this offense.

And it's like most things with Baltimore, it's looked pretty good. Okay. Buffalo. So I chose something here that probably is hard. to say is like the true greatest strength of this Bill's team. But it's something that I want to pick out that is a solid thing that they can rely on, which sometimes feels like it's hard to find the Buffalo, which is Josh Allen not taking sacks. He takes 1.4 sacks per game. It's first in the NFL. And it's something that's really worth highlighting in terms of what makes him a successful quarterback because for all of his issues, this is a reliable thing that keeps them

in positive down and distances. Yes, he turns the ball over a lot. Yes, he is mistake prone in a lot of ways. But sacks are really meaningful mistakes, negative plays for a quarterback. And an underrated thing about Josh Allen is that he just does not take that many of them. And the bill's offensive line is part of this too. They are one of if not the only units in the league, I believe, that's had the same group all season. But it's also his mobility. It's also just for whatever reason, one facet of the game where that screw that he has loose just like tightens itself up.

And he's good when he faces pressure. He does not let a lot of pressure turn into sacks. And it's something that makes the bill's offense really good. And it's something that I think they can rely on, which is the nice thing for them to have to, you know, to go into the playoffs, having had this roller coaster of a season, that I do think is something that they're going to be able to hang their hat on. And in this AFC field, there are some pretty spicy defenses, right? I mean, Baltimore, but even the Browns, the Steelers, the Texans overall, you know, that's not a, that's more of middle of the defensive. the pack defense, but they can, they can pressure a quarterback. The chiefs, certainly. Josh Allen can get spags just like anybody else, but the ability to avoid sacks. We all can.

You have a cover zero blitz right behind you, Nora. Look. No. No, yeah, I agree. And I think I went with the strength you picked out as their greatest weakness. And it's the reliance on Josh Allen to create and to do that stuff and to do it while having no margin for error and not needing one at times. But as we saw in the Miami game, like, he wasn't taking sacks, but he did throw two interceptions into the end zone. So I just think we've seen it enough this year where those mistakes happen and they cost Buffalo. And I'm not putting those losses squarely on Josh Allen. I think the fact that he did turn over the ball is the reason they lost, but that's expecting him to be perfect, which they're set up right now.

There's no way he can play without turning over the ball, but I do think that's going to hurt them in January. Joe Brady since taking over, he's gotten a lot of credit for this turnaround where they're winning all these games in a row, but their offense is worse across the board. Like EPA, yards per play, points per drive, anything you want to look at traditional metrics, advanced metrics, they are worse. And I think we saw last week kind of the cracks in the idea that he settled Josh. Allen down and this offense doesn't rely on that playmaking as much as it did.

The last couple of times we've seen him play against the Cowboys and against the Dolphins in big games, he's gone to that mode when he's had to. And I still think this is the same offense just with a different guy in the headset. And I think the same concerns we had about this offense before they fired Ken Dorsey are the concerns we should have going into the playoffs. Yeah. No, I think in some ways that's what made me want to choose something that feels. is a little bit more reliable.

I think it's really telling that we picked kind of two sides of the same coin for Buffalo because that's just that's been them and we'll see how far it takes them. Kansas City, I went with past defense. There's only four teams that have scored more than 20 points against the Chiefs all year. That young secondary that sort of grew up in the playoffs last year has been a huge part of how they've been able to hang in it even with their offensive deficiencies this season. And in particular, in this game against the dolphins, if you're too, I think that's pretty scary because when they last played, he threw for 193 yards.

I can definitely see something similar happening. And obviously part of that is you can get spagged. And those DBs are a big part of that. But in general, they can just lock down. in coverage. And it's sort of telling that I'm choosing something that's not Patrick Mahomes,

but I do think that it's hard to separate the quarterback from the rest of the offense. And if we really look at what's helped this Chief's team win games this year, I think past defense is where it starts. Yeah. And my pick is basically the opposite of that.

Do you know who can lock down receivers? Anyone going up against this one, this group can lock down receivers. Air, grass. Yeah. And like when it's third and long, I think that's the problem. Like, who do you trust on this team to make a play? The answer is obviously Patrick Mahomes, like, out of structure.

And then the answer used to be Travis Kelsey. Like, I think Kelsey's still a very good player, but he's not the money guy he was on third down last year. Or at least he hasn't been to this point. Maybe he gets healthy in the playoffs. Maybe he's been nursing an injury. He did hurt his ankle. But this current version of him isn't the guy. he was last year, and I don't think they have the pieces to scheme around that.

Like, I don't think Andy Reed, I don't know, I just don't think he is elevating the players as much as we thought he would. Like, I think that was one of the reasons why we weren't so worried about the receiving court was because Andy Reed was here. I guess he is. They are getting open and they're not catching the ball, but there are still, like, mistakes in terms of miscommunication, which I kind of put on coaching as much as the player.

So I just don't think he's getting enough support. That's the reason why I would count out Mahomes and AD Reid, which is something that I, like, I think we have all vowed over the last couple of years never to do, but I'm going to do it for this year. It kind of feels like he's on the Brady, the Brady track, but he skipped like that first part of Brady's career where he, like, won a bunch where he was a quasi game manager at the beginning of his career, where, like, he started out in the 2007 era and he just came, hit the ground, running through 50 touchdowns his first season. And then now he's in that 2016. era where Croc is old and gets hurt.

The receivers are bad. They can't separate. The defense is still very good. But there's just so much pressure on the quarterback that when they lose, it's not a surprise anymore. And I think that's where we are in this dynasty. Well, and it's, I mean, with this team, it's sort of like, okay, if we think about who we like them matching up against, it's funny because I would like them against a defense

that struggles against running backs, which is a weird place to be, right? Like, they're just better off when it's Mahomes working with Kelsey, but also with the running backs and when it's the ground game powering them, then throws to the wide receivers. That's weird. That shouldn't be the case, right? And it's an interesting comparison with the Pats trajectory

because how did they get out of that? It wasn't, I mean, you know, Gronk really had a renaissance and they got great play in seasons from guys like, even like Brandon Cooks who have sort of like plus skill sets

and abilities. But a lot of that was like, it just needs to get a little bit better and all of a sudden it's like Chris Hogan. And you're winning with guys where if you have a quarterback like that, it just has to be just enough. And I do think that they are below the bar

this year. But it's, it's, it's instructive in how little you need to get over the bar. But I guess that's a little bit more of an off-season conversation. For the Houston tax ends, it's CJ Stroud. And in particular, his, and maybe you can help me figure out the right way to sort of encapsulate this. It's the fact that I, and maybe I'm just like buying into the hype, but I do believe that he's,

different in meaningful ways from a lot of rookie quarterbacks who might wind up in this situation. Normally, I really don't like the idea of a rookie quarterback playing in his first playoff game. I just think often that's a recipe for a stinger. But if you look at how Stroud has played this year, the mistakes are so rare and so few and far between. He has five interceptions on the season and three of them came in one game. his accuracy and the arm talent just makes me believe that he's going to be able to go into this, this first playoff game of his career against a good Brown's defense and not freak out. He just seems like maybe unflapability is the way to call it.

But to me, it shrouds ability and in particular the way that, he has approached this season as someone who I just don't think the moment is going to be too big for him. Yeah, he is definitely one of those quarterbacks where he never loses control of the situation. Like he doesn't make a bad play worse, usually. It's not like that Jimmy G thing where when he's in a bad situation, you're about to see the worst interception you've ever seen. You just don't get that from him. And I think that's like one way he's different from other rookies.

I also think another way he's different from quarterbacks he can be compared to because of the offense he's in. I think he is in this Shanahan offense getting a lot of the same benefits that these other guys get, but he has the blue chip talent to go along with it, and that's what makes this so different. But, like, my thing is, he's still a rookie at the end of the day. And I think we are, like, I agree with you, and I think, I think they're going to beat the Browns. I just don't see them going to Baltimore, which they would have to do, assuming the Chiefs win and beating and beating Baltimore in Baltimore against that defense. That's my concern.

And then I just think, I'm going to combine the Browns and the, and, and, the Texans here. The quarterback for the Browns is too washed for them to win a Super Bowl. The quarterback for the Texans is not washed enough for them to win the Super Bowl. He's too pre-washed, if you will. He needs to be like stone-tumbled or whatever that thing is

that they do to make like fabric softer. All right, let's do the Browns. So your weakness is Flacco? You think what is it going to be? Is it going to be the... It's a quarterback. Come on. That's not to take anything away from Flacco. He's not... He's playing well. But there's a clear expiration date on this.

Like we've seen the games, even the games where he looks legitimately impressive. Like he's still like kind of yoloing the ball up there. And Mari Cooper is like catching the ball and dragging two toes and one hand. It's like crazy. I don't think it's sustainable. The thing that's going to happen is whether it's against the Texans or if, you know, I can see them winning that game. But then if it were against Baltimore, he's going to have a game where he throws like three picks.

because that's what it's been with Blacko. It's either it's bombs or its picks, and it's been a wild ride, and we'll see how far it takes them, but I feel very confident that that is going to be what does them in. The strength, however, is that here's the thing. For a team that might have to withstand a game in which Joe Flacco gives the ball to the other team,

I don't mind one that has the top-ranked defense against the paths because, I mean, one, this is just a great defense, it's a defense that's going to give any opponent trouble, but two, they're one that I, that can withstand a few lost possessions. Yeah. Just because quite often they're going to get the ball back pretty quickly. So just, just quite simply for Cleveland, and it's defense.

They could definitely slop it up. And this is like the perfect year to have that style of play, like the slop it up style. Like this, with the chiefs down on offense and the bill's kind of being consistent on offense and the dolphins having their own problems

with like injuries and consistency. Like this is the year to have that style of play. So I definitely think like they have a chance to make more noise than maybe people expect. I just, there's no chance to win the Super Bowl. Never say no. Playoff Joe.

That's true. Right, Miami. So the greatest strength of the dolphins is the greatest strength of the dolphins. And it's the team speed. And now that can be severely affected by who's healthy, who's up for the game against the chiefs. Rahim Moster and Jalen Waddle were both listed on the injury report as limited yesterday. Now, that was a presumptive injury report for if they had had a practice, they had the day off. But hopefully those players are moving in the right direction.

But caveat, obviously, with health. I think we talked about this a little bit on Sunday. For the dolphins to beat the chiefs, which I do not believe that they will do, but for it to happen, they need an early lead. They need to be playing from ahead. Because one, you're playing from behind,

that's a good way to get spagged. And by the way, this is, this is, spags is now just like fully in my book. And it's also a good recipe against his chief's offense that, as we've talked about, is really limited. And the thing that they have, that that Kansas City defense, which is good, is really good, has been one of the best in the league and is well coached, good young players, is that at least when they have a relatively full compliment, they are just faster. And that's the Dolphins, that's their identity, that's their bread and butter.

they are in that respect lucky that it's something that could help them against Kansas City in particular. I don't have a ton of confidence that we're really going to see that, but that's the formula. Yeah, I think their biggest weakness is the injuries, their health, but to not pick an obvious one, I would say they're seeing. Their path to the playoffs to the Super Bowl is their biggest weakness. They go to Arrowhead. It's expected to be zero degree temperatures on Sunday. to his 0 and 4 and starts under 45 degrees.

To be fair to him, only one of those starts has come under McDaniel, but it was his only start under 30 degrees. And it was not a good showing against Buffalo last year in the loss, minus 0.13 EPA per dropback, 6.7 yards per dropback, well below his season averages. But even if they win that game, they go to Baltimore. And the forecast for next weekend in Baltimore is high of 34, 12 to 13 mile per hour wins, both Saturday and Sunday.

So he's not avoiding it. And then I didn't check the weather report for Buffalo, but assuming Buffalo is the team they would go to next, I'm assuming it's going to be really fucking cold. That's my weather report. That's my early forecast for Buffalo. That is actually the weather report for Buffalo until further notice, is it's just RFK, really fucking cold.

So, K is not what cold starts with. No, it's like the cool way to spell. It's like in like the late 90s when they put like Z at the end of things to make them seem cooler. Yeah. So for Miami to, like, run through the playoffs

and make the Super Bowl, too, it would have to do something he has literally never done and you'd have to do it three times in a row. And he could also get spaxed and he probably will get spas

this weekend. As we've said, anyone can get spags at any moment. That's a good lead into the Steelers because I'll give you, as you said, it is supposed to be very cold

this weekend in Buffalo and also until further notice. Uh, my greatest strength of the Steelers, I went with the elements because it's going to be cold. Wins 20 to 25 miles per hour, gusts up to 35, single digit temperatures, snow. I know you love a snow game. This is not, this is not a team that really has any business beating the bills. But it's a team that's 12th in rushing offense by EPA. They've got a good run defense and they've got a good defense overall. And they're less reliant on moving the ball through the air than the bills. That's one way to put it.

That's putting it lightly. Josh Allen, a quarterback to play in bad weather, Josh Allen is such a good guy for that. Fantastic. Strong arm. He can rifle one in there, cut through wins. 35 miles per hour it's too many miles per hour

it just the advantage of that goes away and it flips into the team that is just less likely to be reliant on the pass has an advantage so I think the weather report could be a really significant factor in that game and I think it really does play into Pittsburgh's hands

if a snow game costs us Josh Allen in the second round and we have to watch Nation Rudolph like I'm going to just, this is my agenda. Like, this is why I've said this. This is why I don't want, I don't like snow games. This is a pro global warming podcast now. Steve!

No, no, no, I'm joking. I'm not so. You're going to get us canceled. But someone who might be is their biggest weakness to me, Mason Rudolph. That's, do I have to explain more? He's the biggest weakness. No, that's fine.

You can just leave it at that. So, so Bill's Steelers, two iconic AFC franchises. The preview from the Ringer NFL show, it's Snow versus Mason Rudolph. And I think that's a pretty good game preview. We don't have to talk about it anymore.

No. All right. I'll kick it over to you. You want to do the NFC and do the hit me with the strengths? Yeah, I guess we'll start with the 49ers. Best offense in the NFL. At times this year, they've looked like the best team in the NFL. And I think their biggest strength is their balance on offense.

They're the one team that I don't want to call them like independent of the quarterback because I don't want to take away from what Purdy did and get 49ers fans on my on my back. But I also think we've seen that if you can make the game about the quarterback, that's when you lose. I don't see anyone in the NFC that can take advantage of that. So I think their balance on offense, which could be like a weakness against the Ravens. I don't think it's a weakness right now. I think that's their strength against the rest of this field, which in the NFC, I feel like is more reliant on, like outside of the lions. I think like the Cowboys, they just go get a bucket for us, DAC.

Same with the Rams with Stafford. Obviously, they have a run game. And then the Eagles, I don't think it should be set up where Jalen Hertz is, has to carry the load, the playmaking load, but that's how it's worked out at the end of the year. So balance for the 49ers. So I'm glad you brought up. sort of how how that fits into the greater NFC field and who can kind of take advantage of that or not because as I suppose is sort of the flip side of that I have the fact that

interceptions have really come in bunches for Purdy. In general, overall, pretty clean player. This offense has mostly been a juggernaut. But in the four losses that he's played in, he's thrown nine, picks on 120 pass attempts, that's an interception rate of 7.5%, which is a lot. And he does, he has seemed like a quarterback where once you get to him, whether it's sort of tensing up, whether it's pressing and feeling the need to get it back or make a play, or whether it's just a symbol of the teams

that are able to intercept him have picked up on if he's telegraphing his reads, if he's predetermining his throws, whatever it is, it seems as though if you can get him once, you can get them twice or three or four times.

As you said, I don't know that there are a lot of teams in the NFC that I'm particularly worried about taking advantage of that. The injury to Stefan Gilmore is potentially really sort of significant in this way. He has said that he expects to play Sunday against the Packers wearing a harness on his injured shoulder.

But just in terms of impact players in the secondary, when you start to get really worried is a Super Bowl matchup with the Ravens potentially. And obviously one of those games that we're talking about is the Baltimore game. So if you get good Brock and you're not forcing them into those moments, great. But as we've seen, when it goes bad, it goes bad in a big way. And if I'm San Francisco, that's the number one thing that I'm worried about, even if it seems unlikely to really show up until pretty far along the line. We never got a chance to talk about this because we recorded the day before the game.

but at the end of that Ravens game, he kind of got benched. He was ready. He was clear to go back. Right. And he got benched in part because of the reason you're bringing up is because the mistakes compounded. And then you saw at that moment,

like, Kyle Shannon was like, enough. We're going to call screen passes. We're going to run. And then you see the Michael Parsons tweet, which I think was like actually like a very astute tweet and like kind of rare to get a football player to drop a take like that about another team. But I do think it was a good point, and I do think it speaks to what you're saying.

Like, it's not just that Brock has that in him to kind of have that, like, quick sand type of game where he just, like, kind of slowly sinks and falls apart. It's that I don't know if Kyle trusts him if he starts to see that. And I wonder if the leash is a little shorter after that Baltimore game. Because it seemed to be because he kept Darnold in there. And, like, what Purdy said after the game, which I thought was the most telling was, like, based on the type of game it is, like, wanted to darn old out there. And I think that meant like a drop back passing game. Well, and I think you might have, I think there's sort of a, based on the type of game

can mean the score was what it was. So what's the point in risking the injury? But I do think you're right to point out that that that's not what happened in that game. And it's a helpful, it's a helpful scapegoat. But you could see in, you know, Shanahan's holding the play sheet in front of his mouth. so nobody can see what he's saying. But you could see Purdy, you know, nodding. And it, we don't know.

You know, we're not in the headset or whatever. But that was your sitting down. Yeah. This wasn't hurts, like, getting benched, quote unquote, benched against the Giants. After he dislocated his finger or whatever and, like, they're down by 20 points. Sam Donald got them within, like, striking distance of that, of the ravens if they get, like, the onsite kick. So I think that's true.

I wish they had to, I wish teams had to. designate that. I wish it was like an injury status update thing where it was like so and so is out benched and you like there should be a rule where you can't bring them in again unless it's for injury and you have to say who's benched. I don't know who whose purpose that serves other than mine being nosy but I would like to know. It's like you get the opposite of the turnover chain too. You get like a benched dunce cap or something that you have to wear. Are you, no, you get tethered to the bench. Like you literally get you get handcuffed to the bench. Now this is turning into like

1920s like boarding school tactic. Yeah, this is pretty bad. Should we move on to the Cowboys? Yeah, let's do it. I was going to go with the easy one and be like, Dak Prescott, they have the best quarterback in the conference. Like, of course that's their strength. But I honestly, the more that I think about it in the playoffs where I think game plans matter more and being able to wreck game plans on defense matters more. I'm going to say Michael Parsons is their great strength. think the ability to have that player that you can line up anywhere. And, like, he is not, like, Judevian Clowny, for instance, when, like, Houston used to

line him up, like, as, like, a stand-up linebacker, but you knew he was blitzing because, like, he's not going to drop into coverage, really. But Micah could kind of do that. And we've seen the Cowboys do that. So I think having that kind of wild card on defense will serve them well against some of these, like, challenges that this is, I would say, the NFC challenge on the offensive side, are. on the defensive side, going up against those offenses is much steeper than on the AFC side. Because even like the dolphins who are maybe the scariest offense,

like the equivalent of the 49ers in the AFC, they have their problems with the injuries. And obviously Tua is a questionable guy. So I think they're going to need this defense to play really well against the Rams, the Lions, the 49ers, but any of these teams they go up against, starting with the Packers. For sure. I think Parsons makes a lot of. of sense to me and it fits into, in some ways that fits into the weakness that I chose from them, which is just they're not built to play from behind. And I think there's a conversation that was

probably, that probably would have been worth having, but that got co-opted by the home road splits thing with Dallas this season, which really wasn't about playing at home versus playing on the road, but just that this is not a team that's built to come back necessarily. And in some ways, it seems like they should be because they have a good passing game. They have a great quarterback. But first of all, they're not good defensively against the run. They're 31st in success rate against the run. Big reason why they have had the results that they've had against the 49ers. And it's players like Parsons who make such an impact, but who are at their best when when you can pinnear's back a little bit.

And when they're not dealing with an offense that can be a little bit more balanced, and when they on the flip side on offense are not feeling the need for DAC to do too much and getting into that mode where they're sort of pressing, because I do still think that in this offense that's made a lot of strides, there's still just this like anxiety to them sometimes. So to me, I think it's, are they playing a team that can take advantage of their weakness against the run in particular, but also that can can get up on them quickly and sort of force them into that mode because I just think they're significantly less comfortable when the game script is going that type of way.

And I don't really trust them in close games. And like this is going to be related to my next one on the Rams. I think the clear strength of the Rams compared to the rest of the field is they have Matthew Stafford, who is a quarterback who you can rely on to get a bucket, so to speak, on third and long. The difference is he's not coached by Mike McCarthy and Dak Prescott is. So that's why I didn't pick Dak as their biggest strength because it's a partnership with McCarthy. Now, the partnership between McVeigh and Stafford, I think is like the best trump card outside of obviously the 49ers skill players. I think it's the best trump card in the NFC right now. it's really funny where the Rams are at this place relative to sort of like how it felt.

And I do agree with you. That combination feels worthy of considering them in every game. And now maybe I guess I have to think about if I really mean that against the 49ers, particularly just given McFay's history against Shanahan. But with potentially that exception, there is no team in the NFC field that I don't feel like this Rams team on a good, on a day when that partnership between McVeigh and Stafford is really clicking where they can't be in it. Here's the problem. And we started getting into this a little bit on Sunday. The Rams kicking game is an abject disaster.

Like just, just the worst in the league. at kicker. So they are, actually, excuse me, they're only 31st in the NFL, but they're only hitting 80% of field goal and extra point attempts. They started the season with Brett Marr,

who then got cut in October after missing a bunch of kicks. Then they moved on to a rookie that they took off the Browns practice squad, Lucas Haversick, and then cut him after he missed a bunch of kicks and went back to Brett Maher, who, by the way,

in the playoffs last season missed six out of seven extra point attempts. So, yeah, that's kind of rough. This is bad, I would say. It's a good thing playoff games never come down to kicks. Right, good thing. We just spent this chunk of this conversation

being like the Rams, they've done such a good job, they can stick with it in any game. The problem is they might have to line up for a game-winning kick or a game tie and kick, and there's a really solid chance they miss it. Yeah.

I suppose in some ways this is a feather in their cap because to be a team that was widely considered bottom five, if not worse than that, at the beginning of the season, and now the thing that can undo them in the playoffs is just the kicking game. Good on you, but it's not going to make anybody feel any better

if the game comes down to a little. field goal or even an extra point. I will say this. We thought they were going to be bottom five because like in April, they literally had no special teams players on the roster. They literally did not have a specialist on the roster. That's a very astute point to bring up. I can't believe it turned out like this. Should I move on to the Lions? Like I think it's very clear. Their offensive line, their run game and like that's the thing that tends to matter in January. Maybe I'm like resorting to old school cliches, but I think that's a good strength to

have. I think a bad weakness to have is Derek Goff as your quarterback, but that's besides the point. I think they can avoid having to rely on Jerry. You couldn't resist. It's my job to do the weakness. At least I didn't do it for the 49ers.

You have to give me credit for that. I'm going to make it up to you with my next team. Because I don't have an answer for my next team. I try. I did not put Jared Gough as the weakness for the Lions. I did put Jared Gough against pressure.

He's got a QBR in the single digits when he's pressured. It's just he has always been someone who really struggles with that. And this season has been no different. He's thrown most of his interceptions against pressure. his interception rate is more than twice the league average for pressured quarterbacks. So that's not twice the league average when he's pressured. It's that when Jared Goff faces pressure, it coaxes him into picks more than twice the average rate. You can pick, I mean, there's just a grab bag of ways that you can illustrate it.

He has unique difficulties when pressured. Now, the good news, obviously, it's that run game. It's that offensive line. It's the way that Ben Johnson melds that together with their passing game when in the situations in which they're in positive down a distance and they can get into their play action stuff. And they can take advantage of how defenses have to sell out and stop the run. It all works. But another team that doesn't like to play from behind, if he's got to drop back and just make some throws, if it's against a team that can pressure the quarterback, it's a it's. historically meant very, very bad quarterback play for Detroit.

And that is equally true, or maybe not equally as a bad word to use, but that has remained true as the Lions have had success. And again, this is not until you start talking about the Cowboys, and then especially, the 49ers, this is not the scariest set of defenses in these NFC playoffs. So they might get away with it. But if an opponent can figure out how to pressure Jared Gough, almost always it leads to very poor performance.

Yeah, I'm not going to push back against that. I know that's a shocker to you that I'm not going to defend Jared Gough at all. All right. So then tell me what the buck's greatest strength is. I see, this is the one I struggled with. I literally did not pick one. I was like, I'm going to come back to these notes, and I'm going to pick one later, and I never did.

And the reason why I struggled to pick one, even though there seems to be some obvious picks, like Mike Evans, the receiving core, or like Todd Bowles' defense has looked really good at times. Is that I don't, like, their run defense is really good, for instance. But I think, like, having a good run defense can, like, there's a point of diminishing returns where teams refuse to run against you and now they're passing.

They're playing, like, in a more efficient style of offense. So it's almost like their biggest strength on defense is partly their biggest weakness. And I think Todd Bowles, like at times when he is cooking, like we saw in the Super Bowl against the Chiefs, like he is one of the top defensive coordinators, top play callers in the league. But he's kind of got that Vance Joseph in him where it's like either boom or bust, either we're going to dominate you or you guys are going to put up 30 on us. And I think that's why I hesitate to make him the strength of the team. And then like looking at Mike Evans, why I hesitate to make the receiving core of the strength of the team is that means Baker-Mathes.

that means Baker Mayfield has to pass a lot to take advantage of that. And I don't think that's how this team is structured. So I don't know. I'll leave it up to you. You can tell me what their strength is. All right. You would have flip? I can give you.

So here's, I think the greatest strength of the bucks is that Mike Evans has genuinely been playing at like an all pro level and is one of the, I mean, if you can make a short list and these NFC playoffs, they include, you know, C.D. Lamb is in there. But Mike Evans is really right up there in terms of who are the receiving threats that you are most scared of. I mean, look, this Bucks team, I think is, well, now I'm going to say this and they're going to go beat the Eagles who can't defend anyone. But overall, over the course of the year, this Bucks team probably has the worst resume I guess anyone in the playoffs other than maybe the Steelers. And in part, they're in the field by virtue of the conference that they're in,

which credit to them, they managed to win. Others have tried to know. In part, in part is very generous. But there is a little bit of a one of these things that's not like the other situation. I put Baker Mayfield's pocket presents. Yes. as the weakness and sort of outlined some of the caveats that you were referring to, which is just like the passing game in some ways has been good.

It hasn't been great, but it's been pretty good, mostly because Mike Evans has been otherworldly. But there's still, you know, Baker's still only 20th in success rate overall. And in particular, he's got, he's got his arm, but he gets jittery in the pocket. and that's something that good teams tend to be able to exploit when facing him. And I would imagine that when the caliber of competition increases and the playoffs is going to show up a little bit more, although also this team scored nine points against the Panthers.

So quality of competition might not actually matter. Nine points and no touchdown. So, yeah. But I have come up with the biggest strength. The biggest strength is that they face Matt Patricia on Wild Park weekend. That's the biggest strength. It's a nice way to live. All right, let's talk about the Eagles then.

The offensive line, like, what happened last year, I think that's the biggest strength is the memory of last year and that the fact that it's the same players around and that the bones of last year's team are still there. This isn't the same team as last year, though. And that's why I can only say the bones are the strength. it's kind of hard. It's getting harder to find the strength.

Obviously, the offensive line is the best part of the team, the heart and soul of the team. But I don't think it is as dominant as it was last year. So even that relative to last year isn't the strength that it was. But it has to be the offensive line. No, any other place you look, there are question marks. Like, even receiver where they have the most talent, there are injury concerns. Jalen Hertz also has injury concerns. It hasn't been playing good football.

coaching staff is totally under fire and under question right now. The defensive line, they're not beating blocks like they used to. The linebackers, they've been picked on. The secondary is old and they've been picked on. This team is not good. Right. I think, like you said the Bucks have the worst resume. If you ignore it, recid the Eagles have the second race resume.

I guess this iteration of the, yeah. This, yeah, this iterative. It's hard because they, like, there was a time this season when they did things that were genuinely impressive. It's just that this is not that team anymore. Yeah. A lot of options to choose from her weakness, but I do think that the worst of all of them is the past defense.

In particular, if you're a team that can kind of do the dink and dunk, pick apart short throws stuff, which plenty of these teams, especially ones that come from the

Shanahan, McVay, that lineage, it's really fun to play offense against the Eagles defense. It just teams passing on this defense look like they're passing on air most of the time recently. And again, I could have chosen the fact that a recognizable and expensive defensive line cannot get pressure. But I just think you got to sort of encapsulate the whole picture because, as you said, linebackers get picked on. Secondary is varying degrees of banged up and ineffective.

And that front just has not been able coming off the season when they had that historic sack total. They have just not been able to even come close to getting that type of pressure. So there are a lot of problems, but I think that that felt like the worst of all of them. that feels like a three-level problem for their defense at this point because like you said, the pass rush isn't what it was and that used to be the saving grace for a back seven that, I mean, maybe that's unfair to the cornerbacks, but like the safeties and linebackers,

there have been question marks for as long as I can remember with this team. And those question marks are even bigger without an elite defensive line or pass rush. All right. We have two more, right? No, we already hit the Rams. So just the Packers. Yeah, it's Jordan Love, which is kind of crazy to say. And that is the default answer.

It almost has to be the answer. It's not like a young receiving court. It's not the young offense, the youngest team in the NFL. It's not experience. It's not Joe Barry in his defense. That's for damn sure. That defense gave up 30 points to the Panthers. It's Jordan Love and it's Matt LaFlor and their connection and what offense they've been able to build,

which I think is the biggest indictment of, the Aaron Rogers Jets era is that the Packers' offense has looked so much improved after he left and after his guys left too, the guys that he brought with him to New York. And I think it's because of what Jordan loved, because

he's a clean slate, so to speak. He doesn't have these preferences that Aaron Rogers had built in. I mean, he probably has them, but he's not going to be vocal about him. He's not going to push back about him like Rogers would have and could have. So I think that's the biggest strength right now, is they have an offensive system rather than

an offense built around the quarterback. Unfortunately, let me tell you about the defense and, and, and, and, and, coordinator Joe Barry, uh, this is, is definitely to me, the Packers' weakness. I guess if you want to

categorize it very specifically, it's the fact that they just still play this very soft defensive style and I think the good teams really, really thrive against it. Uh, they are 20th in EPA against the past. overall this year, offenses have averaged 335 yards per game against them. And there are quarterbacks like Bryce Young and Tommy DeVito who have had their best games of the season going against this defense. I do think that it has to do with the style and the scheme and the coordinator. There are talented players here, but they really give a lot up, especially in the short and intermediate.

and I just think that when they face better competition, it's hard to see this not being a significant problem for them. Yeah, and I think, like, I think the problem is that Joe Barry basically sits there when he's following plays and has a sign that says, like, free five yards on first down. Do you want five yards on first down? We'll give it to you, no matter who you are. Bryce Young, you can have it to. I know you haven't enjoyed this at all this season, but on first down, you guys can have it.

they are giving up a their past success rate on defense. So defensive success rate is 40% on first down, 41%. That is not good. That is bad, especially because teams run a lot on first down. And so you're seeing a lot of play action. You're seeing a lot of quick game. Those are the two arcic, like two styles of passes you're seeing. And they're not good at defending either one.

They give up passes on play action and they give up passes underneath that allow you to stay ahead of the chains. and I just think that's the worst setup for January football. All right. On that note, I think we should call it a pod here. Obviously, a lot to discuss. This will be probably one of our longest shows of the year, but you can thank the Seahawks for that. So this has been dual threat.

Ben and Sheel will have you covered on extra point taken later this week. And then we will be back both on Saturday and Sunday, recapping the Wild card results. Thank you to Stefan Anderson for producing this episode. Thank you to Connor Nevins and our Juno Rappell for their additional production supervision. Must be 21 plus and present in select states. Fandwell is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC. Gambling problem, call 1-800 gambler or visit fandwell.com slash RG in Colorado, Iowa,

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