The Ringer NFL Show - Cashing in on Wild-Card Weekend | The Dantasy Football Podcast

Episode Date: January 3, 2020

We offer a comprehensive breakdown of each wild-card game this weekend and highlight the players to start and avoid, including cheaper options to help fill your lineup. Then, we hear about a new fanta...sy football playoff format before building our daily fantasy lineup. Hosts: Danny Heifetz, Danny Kelly, and Craig Horlbeck Guest: Bill Simmons Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:00 Hey, it's Liz Kelly and welcome to The Ringer Podcast Network. We published some great episodes in the month of December, including a rewatchables with Quentin Tarantino on Dunker. Sean Fennessey sat down with Greta Gerwig to talk about her new film Little Women on the Big Picture. And Adam Sandler and Kevin Garnett appeared on the Bill Simmons podcast to talk about their newest film on Cut Jems. Happy New Year from The Ringer. To the Dantasy football podcast on the Ringer NFL show on the Ringer podcast network. And welcome to 2020. My name is Danny Hyphitz, and I'm joined as always by my co-host and my co-danny,
Starting point is 00:00:56 the hero we need, the analyst we deserve, the Dark Knight himself! Danny Kelly! D.K. Welcome to the playoffs. How are you doing, D.K.? I'm doing excellent, and it made me very happy to hear you say 2020. I've been trying for basically the last decade to get people to stop saying 2002 and 2003 for, like, the years. I just think it's stupid.
Starting point is 00:01:17 I like 20-20. I like going with, like, the 1900. style, you know, whatever, format. So I'm really happy about that. That's huge for me. Yeah, on New Year's, they just had like this super cut of like Barbara Walters just being like 2020, 2020, 2020, this is 2020, like 25 times in a row. And it was obnoxious.
Starting point is 00:01:36 But then I was actually really like impressed that they leaned all the way into the bit. Are they going to, is anybody going to say 20 or 2020? No, I will because I know it annoys you. I'm sure that. Craig, how's your 2020 going? Not bad so far. 2020, the year of perfect vision. We're going to have a perfect playoffs on daily.
Starting point is 00:01:55 I'm excited. I'm excited as well. We're going to run through a bunch of players we like in their matchups this week. We're going to run through our fan dual lineup of the week at the end. But first, can we just say 2020 a bunch more times too? No. First, we're going to run through some categories of some DFS players we like, some matchups we like. Obviously, there's only four games this weekend, wild card weekend.
Starting point is 00:02:15 We got Texans, bills. We got Patriots, Titans. We got Vikings Saints, Eagles Seahawks. Bad weather Russell Wilson. That's a real thing. Unlike cold weather, Lamar Jackson. That is fake. Windy Russell Wilson.
Starting point is 00:02:27 That is real. All right. Half PPR as always. DK., shall we dive in? Yeah, let's do it. My first guy for the Go Big section is Michael Thomas of the Saints, 8,900, going up against a very bad Vikings past defense in this season. Obviously, yeah, Xavier Roe.
Starting point is 00:02:48 just hasn't been good this season. They just have been underperforming in that area. We came in thinking they would have a really, really good second area. It just hasn't been the case. Yeah, I mean, Rhodes was their number one cornerback, one of the best cornerbacks in all football this year. It's been the worst year of his career and was arguing with Mike Zimmer on Monday Night Football a couple nights ago,
Starting point is 00:03:05 and now he's like a part-time player kind of benched and was bad when he was playing, and now he's not even playing that much. Yeah. It's just a strange kind of scenario. So Thomas, he has been limited by hand injury. week. So that's kind of something to monitor, but there's no indication so far that's going to keep him out. We are recording on Thursday afternoon. It looks like he's trending in the right
Starting point is 00:03:25 direction. The Vikings this season, like I said, 26 against opposing receivers per fan duel scoring. Thomas coming off a bit of a down week against Carolina and what was basically just a nothing game. He had four catches, 37 yards. 5.7. It was crucial because he finished with 149 receptions, which you know that he feels like it's like the Jordan Belfort thing, where it's like, I made 49. million dollars, which really pissed me off because I've won shy, like a million a week. It's that round number, yeah.
Starting point is 00:03:53 Michael Thomas getting to 1.49 instead of 150 will probably eat at him the rest of his life. Like, everyone else is like, congrats, and he's like pissed. But, I mean, like, we've talked about him all season. He is an absolute volume hog in that offense. Going back to week 16, 17 targets, 12 catches 136 yards on touchdown. Week 15, 12 targets, 12 catches, 128 yards of touchdown. Week 14, 15 targets, 11 catches 134 and 1. So he's just absolutely the focal point of this pass offense.
Starting point is 00:04:24 I think that's going to get back to how that is. I think he's going to get back to being that next week, this week against Vikings. Obviously, you know, last week it was a bit of an aberration just based on the fact that it was sort of a meaningless game. It was a complete blowout over Carolina. But I think it gets back to him being the absolute focal point of that passing offense. So I think he's a good bet to, number one, have a high floor, but also have a high C. doing. I wholly endorse this. The Vikings have had trouble defending opposing number one receivers like all year. Like Cortland Sutton had a big game against them. Amari Cooper, Tyree Kill,
Starting point is 00:04:56 like just number one receivers have done really well because the Vikings have no cornerback depth. Rhodes has been awful. Trey Waynes, like McKenzie Alexander, like those guys are just not really capable of defending someone of Michael Thomas's caliber. And then they're not really going to be able to help those guys as much because Eric Kendricks, who's their inside linebacker, their middle linebacker is dealing with an ankle injury. Even if he plays, he hasn't practiced since week 16 when he heard it against the Packers. He's the number one graded linebacker on Pro Football Focus. So whether he's playing and injured or he's just out,
Starting point is 00:05:29 like they're not going to be able to devote as much as they usually would because they're not going to have the middle of the defense. I mean, they were bad with Kendrix in the lineup with their cornerbacks. So it's going to be worse with Kendrick's out. And the way the Saints do their offense with those intermediate and short passes to Michael Thomas, like whether it's those option routes where he can kind of break it in either direction, and they kind of mutated during the game to see what defenses are doing, which is why they're so hard to stop.
Starting point is 00:05:49 And then Kamara and Jared Cook having those option routes, and then also just Thomas on the slant. Like, it's really bad for those cornerbacks when Eric, it's not Michael Kendricks, different guy. Eric Kendrix is out. Yeah, I mean, I just like him a lot. I think Thomas separated himself as like, if not the best receiver in the NFL, like one of them for sure.
Starting point is 00:06:07 And it's one of the top three for sure. So I'm riding with him this week for sure. Craig, who are you going big on? I'm going big on Kamara, sticking with the Saints. he's the second most expensive running back behind Derek Henry. In the past three games, Camarra's average 5.6 yards of carry, four touchdowns, 13 catches.
Starting point is 00:06:23 He's kind of been a different player since he's recovered from that ankle injury that kind of plagued him the whole start of the year. Last year in the playoffs, Saints played two games. Camara averaged 20.5 touches, including an 11 catch day against the Rams and the NFC championship. I like Camar because I just want to rely on players
Starting point is 00:06:38 who kind of earn the trust of their quarterbacks, which he has with Breeze. He's kind of game script-proof, like if they're getting killed or if they're blowing somebody out, he's going to get the ball no matter what. And if Minnesota shells out to do everything possible to slow down Michael Thomas, this could end up kind of being the Alvin Kamara game.
Starting point is 00:06:54 And I just like that he's healthy. It gets kind of all rounding into forms, kind of getting hard at the right time for Kamara. All right. Enough numbers. Let's get down to brass tacks. Do the saints, like, destroy the Vikings because they are so upset about losing the Minneapolis miracle game two years ago?
Starting point is 00:07:09 It's definitely a thing. Or do you think this is close and the Vikings are being underrated in this game? The spread is. And I wonder if it's like two points higher because of the revives. Zimmer's piss. Zimmer cited the spread. I coach Mike Zimmer was like, we are seven point underdog. I think it's eight now.
Starting point is 00:07:22 It is eight now. Yeah, yeah. Dick, do you think this game's close or not? That's so tough, man, because everything is close in the playoffs, it seems like. But the Saints are just playing so well right now. And I can't really say the same about the Vikings, you know. And I think a couple weeks ago I would have been much more confident in the Vikings. But this week, I'm kind of just riding that Saints' way.
Starting point is 00:07:43 wave, they just look really, really strong. And they're getting stronger as they go along. And the Camara pick, I think, is great, too, just because he's finally starting to look like the Camara of old, you know, slippery, explosive. He just, he was not that guy for a pretty big chunk of the season as he was, what was it, knee and ankle injuries, or at least an ankle injury. And so, yeah, I just think they're back to kind of who they are, and then they've got all those trick plays that they can do.
Starting point is 00:08:07 And I just, I'm very confident in the Saints right now. Yeah, spoiler alert, we don't have any Vikings in our daily lineup this week, but we should use this as an opportunity to talk about Minnesota's offense a little bit. You beat me to it. Kirk Cousins, my contrarian play of the week. Not quite a galaxy brain, because I don't think it's a galaxy brain.
Starting point is 00:08:23 But I think that, I mean, I love the Saints offense. I think the Vikings offense has a path to having a really good game here. The game that I think they're going to emulate is the 49ers game plan against, I mean, there's only like a month ago where the 49ers dropped 48 freaking points in the Saints. that is the dream thing that the Vikings could shoot for
Starting point is 00:08:45 and not just because the 4-9ers played really well but because that's their ideal game situation, right? Because the Vikings have remade themselves in the image of kind of this Gary Kubiak-style, zone-running game play-action passing. That is what they are. Gary Kubiak learned that from Mike Shanahan. Mike Shanahan also taught this guy named Kyle Shanahan.
Starting point is 00:09:06 So like the 49ers having this zone read play action system is actually kind of similar to what the Vikings want to do. I mean, Jimmy Gropel and Kirk Cousins actually both did play action this year at, like, the identical rate. Like, my cousin did it be like, identical. Like, 39% play action of their passes were play action. I think that the Vikings, like, could do that.
Starting point is 00:09:26 Like, that first half of the Saints game when the 49ers had like 14 and a half yards per play, which was crazy. Jimmy Gropel had like a perfect passer rating on play action in that game. It was his second best play action passing game of the whole year was against the Saints. And they crushed him. Raheem Ostered had like 95 yards or something in the first half on like eight touches.
Starting point is 00:09:45 It was crazy. And the Vikings are probably going to try to emulate that exact gameplay with Cousins and Cook, with Dalvin Cook, that is not Jared Cook. Yeah. And I think that it does help that they get him back. Is he healthy and on track for everything this weekend? He's going to play. It believes him to take off the injury port. And I think it also helps them that the Saints had Marcus Davenport and Sheldon Rankins,
Starting point is 00:10:05 where they're great, like defensive end for Davenport and defensive. attacked for Rankins, and they both got hurt in the Niners game. So I think there's a world where the Vikings are way more competitive than this than possible, and Kirk Cousins gets a few deep shots. Yeah, they're going to be low-owned on daily sites, too, I imagine. The reason I have Kirk is my contrari, he's tied for the cheapest quarterback with Tom Brady. I think that's crazy because I, it's such a... I know it's like, oh, well, the Vikings will just do what the Niners did.
Starting point is 00:10:32 It's a way easier path to me than, like, Tom Brady being great against the Titans defense. Another guy worth owning Adam Thielen. It's kind of healthy, rounding uniformity. he's pretty cheap on Fandle. Do you think so? Yes, he's cheaper, should we play him? He is cheap.
Starting point is 00:10:45 I mean, he's cheaper than Cole Beasley, John Brown, and Edelman. So he missed, I forget how many games of that hamstring injury, but he hasn't had more than like 27 yards since like October. Well, we have to factor in what Marshawn Lattimore's going to do,
Starting point is 00:10:56 and if he ends up covering Stefan Diggs, then this could be a fat feeling game. Diggs quietly, number two... Are you not worried about the Green Bay collapse? Like, how absolutely, like, terrible they looked against... Packers. They had seven first downs in that game.
Starting point is 00:11:12 I think the Packers have a much better pass rush. I don't think the Saints have like two or three great pass rushers like the Packers do. I mean, it's concerning for sure, but I... Yeah, so I, that's the price. To me, the prices are probably a bit like, you know, recency biased towards that
Starting point is 00:11:27 complete collapse. Whereas in the regular season, for the most part, the Vikings' offense was really explosive. And Kirk Cousins looked really good on like play action and all that. But yeah, he just I mean, they just looked absolutely, you know, just terrible against the backers. And then they played a lot of backups last week. So I just don't know what version of the Vikings are going to show up.
Starting point is 00:11:49 Yeah. When Kirk Cousins is the cheapest guy by a lot on Fandall, I'm like, I'm kind of like, well, I mean, there is a world here. And especially because I think they're also the other key to this and it's contrarian and this is why we do it is like, no one's going to pick Kirk Cousins this week. No one goes into Wildcard weekend like, yeah, I'm going to make a DFS lineup. I'm going to have all these exciting players. I'm going to pick Kirk Cousins. But that's how you win. you pick in the one no one else does.
Starting point is 00:12:10 So that's kind of why I'm into Kirk. It's a fun. That's an interesting and fun one, so I like it. All right. Next up, someone you're going home on, D.K., who's an expensive person you're out on this week? So D'Andre Hopkins of the Texans makes me a little bit worried this weekend. 8300 going up against Buffalo's elite corner Tradavius White.
Starting point is 00:12:29 It's probable that White will follow Hopkins around for the majority of the game. White had an outstanding season. In fact, he's been incredibly underrated pretty much as whole. whole career, I think. Per PFF, Tredavius White in 2019 had 599 snaps in coverage and gave up zero touchdowns. Is that good? And it's decent. It's definitely decent.
Starting point is 00:12:54 And per Sports Infros Solutions, SIS, he was actually the most targeted corner in the NFL without a TD allowed. So just really, really impressive. He was targeted 81 times in coverage. So 599 snaps plus 81. one targets on those snaps, zero touchdowns allowed. So you're very much asking to kind of go against the grain if you're betting big on Hopkins. Now, I will say the last time that White gave up a touchdown, it was actually against
Starting point is 00:13:24 Hopkins last season. However, that was, I still don't think you can necessarily rely on that because when Hopkins was in, when he was getting covered by White in that game, it was only two catches for 27 yards. So to me, Hopkins feels a little bit like touchdown or bust, and the odds of a touchdown just feel low based on the fact that White's going to be falling around. So that one just makes me really nervous based on how good Tradavius White is. If I'm going to invest $8,300 in a player, I'm just going to probably go somewhere else with that. Yeah, and the other thing that's so interesting to me for this Texans game is that Will Fuller is a game-time decision for this contest.
Starting point is 00:14:00 Yeah. It's groin injuries questionable. It's kind of a trope now that like, oh, like Will Fuller changes the Texans game. passing offense. He really does. He does. He really does. And I was looking at it this week, and this kind of blew my mind,
Starting point is 00:14:13 on deep passing, pro football focus tracks deep passing, which they define is passes that are more than 20 yards downfield. So the ball is to travel 20 yards. It's not like you can do a screen. Like, that doesn't count. It's when the ball travels 20 yards or more. And in the games that Will Fuller played this year,
Starting point is 00:14:28 Deshawn Watson was basically the best deep passer in football. Like tied with Patrick Boms for number one in deep passing touchdowns, and number one in passing a year. and adjusted completion percentage. He was like number two. And adjusted completion percentage is just like, if a receiver drops the ball that counts as a completion for Watson. And if he, like, throws the ball away that does not count his attempt.
Starting point is 00:14:47 So it's just like, it makes sense. So in adjusted completion percentage, he was like number two. But in the games that Will Fuller did not play, Deshawn Watson went from like number two in completion percentage to 25th. Tied with Josh Allen. Who was terrible on deep passes. So Deshawn Watson is basically the best deep passer in football with Will Fuller, and he is Josh Allen when Will Fuller does not play.
Starting point is 00:15:13 Yeah, and it's not just deep passing necessarily. It's like their whole offense is a lot worse with Will Fuller off the field. It's actually pretty remarkable. I saw this from Kevin Cole, PFF. This is the EPA stats on their offense. Deshawn Watson's dropback splits with Fuller on and off the field in 2019. 337 plays with Fuller on the field. His EPA was 78.2.
Starting point is 00:15:38 Off the field, 247 plays, negative 4.3 EPA. Remind me what EPA is? Expected points added. So it's, you know, it measures the overall efficiency of your offense. EPA is used in like DVOA and a lot of those stats. It's not necessarily a, you know, it doesn't necessarily describe exactly how good the quarterback is specifically in those plays,
Starting point is 00:16:02 but it's just the offense in general. But, yeah, EPA in terms of expected points added per play or whatever. And so Fuller just made a huge, huge difference in that overall offense. So him being a game time decision, and it looks unlikely that he'll play, can definitely make a huge huge effect on just the overall effectiveness of the Texans offense. So that's why, again, that's why I'm worried about Hopkins. I love Hopkins. He's one of the best players in the NFL, but this specific matchup, I think, makes him a little bit scary.
Starting point is 00:16:32 Craig, anyone you're just out on? Derek Henry, I think. I don't know. This is like more of a gut feeling just because he's playing the Patriots and we do it every year. I mean, not every year, but... No, it's every year.
Starting point is 00:16:46 It's every year. We're riding off the pats. Everyone's doing it. It's fun. All the cool kids are doing it at least. Yes, this is like writing off the Spurs like three years ago, like everybody used to do four years ago.
Starting point is 00:16:58 I don't know, man. Belichick is known for... He's notorious for stopping the team's best player. They design their entire game plan around it. The weather's going to be shitty. I know that like to you said that that would help the run defense, but that might just like, I mean the run
Starting point is 00:17:12 offense, but I just think it'll hurt the whole game in general. New England's the worst fantasy matchup for running backs. They've allowed 0.3 rushing scores per game. I don't know. I'm just betting on Belichick stopping Derek Henry, who's kind of like the whole focal point of the Titans' entire existence. I'm torn
Starting point is 00:17:28 because on one hand, it's, if you just zoom out from this season, and you just look at how, like, ignore the details. And every single year in the playoffs, it's like, oh, I don't know about the Patriots this year. And then they're fine. And they make the AFC championship game, and you feel stupid.
Starting point is 00:17:42 Having said that, I'm, especially with this year, I am really just anti-using the Patriots season-long defensive numbers for anything. Because in reality, they have two seasons. They had the first seven games, and then they had the previous nine. In their first seven games, the Patriots had the best point differential. Like, they outscored their opponents by the most in, like,
Starting point is 00:18:02 99 years, which is good. And then in their final nine games, they outscored their opponents by 20 points, which was 13th in the whole league. So, like, not great. Like, their defense has just noticeably just been worse last six weeks. Like, their secondary was completely
Starting point is 00:18:18 healthy. They had Jonathan Jones now has an injury. Jason McCordy has an injury. Stefan Gilmore has been, who's a defensive player of the year, I think probably going to win, is now in doubt because it got shredded by Devante Parker. Your boy, wait, we didn't even discuss this. I know.
Starting point is 00:18:31 I was going to say the defensive player. player of the year just got shredded by the offensive player in the year. Do you want to take a moment and do a victory lap for just like shouting Devante Parker from the rooftops from like July onward and now he's like unbelievable? I think he needs to come on this podcast. It's really my crowning achievement and his name is close to Danny. Be careful what you wish for because he might just replace you. Honestly, I'd be fine with that. That's probably your dream.
Starting point is 00:18:54 But anyway, the point is that Parker shredded Gilmore and now this Patriots defense is just not as good. Like they couldn't stop the dolphins last week. And the Titans offense in basically the same time period because Ryan Tanhill started playing in week seven. So Titans' offense have lead the league in yards per play. Tanhill leads to the league in yards per attempt since then. Derek Henry leads the league in literally every Russian category that matters since then. And A.G. Brown leads the league in yards per route run since then.
Starting point is 00:19:19 So I'm kind of hesitant to just be like the Patriots defense is this world-destroaring force when they really haven't been so in like two months. I don't know. I'm afraid. Yeah. I'm still scared. But we feel, yeah, I guess, but it feels stupid to go against Bill Lelichick. I just wrote about the Patriots today about kind of how this is like their hardest path back to the Super Bowl in forever, essentially.
Starting point is 00:19:42 Like, they haven't played in the wild card round in a decade. Yeah, that's insane. Dicke, what were you doing in 2011? Sorry, 2009. 2010? I don't know what year it is anymore. 2009 was last time they played in the wild card round. I don't remember. I don't even remember what was happening like two years ago.
Starting point is 00:19:59 go to me honest. But yes, the one thing I will say though is like I am very still very confident in this defense. It's unbelievable to me that they lost to the dolphins. But at the same time, I still think that Belichick like Craig was alluding to, can just scheme the hell out of it and figure out a way to take away Henry. So that's, I'm kind of, I lean, I'm worried. I'm less confident in the Patriots in terms of their inevitability as like a postseason team. However, I do think that defense is still very, very good. It just doesn't feel right that this is all going to end because they lose to the Titans. You know?
Starting point is 00:20:33 Deserve got nothing to do with it. I'm quoting Snoop right there. Do you think this is a tough match? Like is this, this is a bad matchup for the Patriots, don't you think? Yeah. Well, here's the thing. Gilmore just got shredded by Devante Parker, right?
Starting point is 00:20:48 Like, the only person who has been better than Devante Parker since week seven is Michael Thomas and AJ Brown. That's it. Those are the two players who have been better than, like, by receiving yards, like almost anything you want to look at, yards per route run, A.J. Brown. So it's not like Stefan Gilmore's just going to do better this week necessarily. I just think there's a chance that Tanniel is no one to throw it to. And also, Belichick has played Tannahill like 10 times, which also kind of scares me.
Starting point is 00:21:14 I don't get why those stats are being thrown around because it implies like that the Dolphins-Tanhill seasons have anything to do with this current Tannihill like existence. And they don't. I'm surprised how often people are citing like the, yeah, like the Adam Gase Ryan Tannhill thing. Clearly, if we've learned one thing about Ryan Tannihal, then. Clearly, if we've learned one thing about Ryan to handle this year. It's like, this version is not the same. Does not compute? I don't know. But having said that, a rule principle of this podcast we always come back to is when in doubt, do the thing that will make you feel less stupid. And the thing that will make us feel less stupid is probably like, oh, yeah, we went against Bill Belichick in the playoffs. So to summarize, maybe be a little hesitant to spend $9,300 bucks of your Fandle money on Derek Kennedy.
Starting point is 00:21:51 All right, glad we did that. And having said that, though, and we're back. And we're back. I'm still hesitant to do the Pat's defense because you're not going to get a discount. They're basically the most expensive defense. Like $100 less. So they're number two, but they're basically number one. And the Titans are rolling. Like the Titans have looked absolutely amazing on offensive late. Other side of the ball in that game,
Starting point is 00:22:12 anyone you guys like, Craig? I like James White. Little Goldilocks action? Little Goldilocks action for James White. Tennessee allows the third most catches of running backs, which is obviously James White's forte. Edelman's banged up and Brady is not throwing deep balls anymore. he's averaging 6.1 yards per attempt
Starting point is 00:22:30 over his last 10 games. So this sets up well for James White, who's pretty much the only other reliable Patriot not named Julian Edelman in Brady's eyes. And he's proven himself. Last year in the playoffs, he touched the ball 28 times in their three games. He hit a 15-catch game
Starting point is 00:22:45 against the Chargers in the divisional round. I think White's just like always a safe bet for the pads. Dika, what do you think? About James White or am I middle-range sweets pot guy? James White. Well, I do like it. And like Craig said, you know, they tend to go to him a lot.
Starting point is 00:22:59 And the trust factor is big because in that offense, they just got a bunch of dudes who Brady doesn't trust. And that's been a huge part of what's happening with their passing game in terms of why it's struggled so much. Sunu is new. And then you got Harry who's a rookie and still probably not in the right spots all the time. He has less catches than Stefan Gilmore, I think. And the Titans, like their best cornerback is Logan Ryan,
Starting point is 00:23:19 who probably should have been a pro bowler and he's a slot cornerback. So he's going to be an informer patriot. He's going to be going against Julian Edelman. They also have great safety play. I mean, teams have been pretty successful just bracketing Julian Edelman and be like, get open everyone else and they can't. So not a great match for Edelman.
Starting point is 00:23:35 The only thing that worries me about White, though, is just the unpredictability of the Patriots backfield rotation. Will this be the Sony Michelle game or are they going to use Burkhead on 20 carriers or something like random? You know, it just never really know what to do with the Patriots backfield.
Starting point is 00:23:49 But I do think White has that receiving upside. And, you know, if their run game isn't clicking, then they're probably going to rely on White quite a bit. Rex Burkhead confuses me. because he hasn't played more than 31% of snaps, like according to the internet and like official sites, but I swear to God he's in on like three quarters
Starting point is 00:24:06 of the Patriots plays. No one understands Rex Berks. I'm just confused. Like anecdotally, like watching Patriots games, I feel like he's always on the field. And then it's actually not. Doesn't he also seem like one of those players
Starting point is 00:24:16 where he wouldn't make the roster of like any other team, but for some reason, like the Patriots like him? Yeah. Basically. All right, we're going to keep going. D.K., you're going to give us your Goldilocks. But first, we're going to take a quick break. January is here, and that means January sports are here.
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Starting point is 00:26:14 Things, players. They're human beings. D.K., who's a middle-range guy you like this week to outperform that price on them? All right, so I'm going with D.K. Matt Kaff for the Seahawks rookie receiver who has emerged as a big playmaker for them. 6,200 against the Eagles. He got a career high, season high, 12 targets last week, caught 6 for 81 and a touchdown. Russell Wilson has really been feeding him kind of like in big moments and crunch time. And he's stepped up for him.
Starting point is 00:26:44 Obviously, there's a few rookie mistakes here and there. He had a couple unfortunate drops and fumbles during the season. But overall, he's like a big mismatch type guy that Russell Wilson does not have any fear throwing it up for him. and you can go deep. He's very, very fast. So there's a lot to like there. I should note the previous game before that, he only had one target and zero catches.
Starting point is 00:27:06 So it's not like he is an every week just monster. He's definitely a big boom or bust type of guy. So his floor is low, but I also just really like his ceiling a lot. The other one note to thing here, the other one thing to note here is there has been reports that could be really windy on Sunday in Philly. Right now, I checked the forecast.
Starting point is 00:27:27 It was mostly sunny 40 degrees and 17 miles an hour. So 17 is not nothing, but it's not necessarily, you know, way too crazy for like any passing game to happen. What's the deal with Russell Wilson in the wind? I don't know so much about the wind, but like when it gets wet and rainy is when he really struggle. And that happens a lot in Seattle. I don't know if you ever notice that. But he's just not, he hasn't been an excellent bad weather quarterback in his career, which I guess kind of goes against.
Starting point is 00:27:55 Who is? Is there anybody who an excellent? The narrative? No, but Russ is particularly bad. Okay. I mean, they played earlier this year and he was awful. I mean, he's, he's bad relative, for sure, to, like, what he is in, like, a dome or in good weather. So that's definitely, like, a factor.
Starting point is 00:28:12 It wouldn't necessarily completely scare me away from Metcalf, but if it is going to be, like, 30-mile-an-hour wins, you know, as we get closer the weekend, that's definitely a time to adjust. However, also, like, just this matchup looks really, really good. From Sheel Capadia, the athletic. Great writer for the athletic. He had posted a... He predicted the minute mark that Brandon Graham would strip sack Tom Brady in the Super Bowl, like literally to the sky. So listen to what he says.
Starting point is 00:28:39 That was like the most incredible call I've ever seen in my life. Like, insane. Yeah. So anyways, trust Sheel is the point. Anyway, he posted a article that kind of broke down how the Seahawks could beat the Eagles. And for the record, he was a long time both Seahawks and Eagles B reporter, so he knows these teams very, very well. He said, number one, relentlessly attacked their corners downfield.
Starting point is 00:29:03 And per shield, here's a rundown of where the Eagles defense ranked against outside receivers during the regular season. Yards loud per game, 144.9, dead last. Explosive receptions, which are 20 plus or more. 31, which is tied for 29th in the league. Touchdowns, 17, which is dead last. Yards per target, 9.09, which is 27. So they are awful against outside deep receivers.
Starting point is 00:29:27 So that matchup just really bodes well for Matt Caff as long as Wilson can get going. So I don't know. I just think to me I love that matchup. He's definitely a good sort of middle range price right now. And he's got a huge upside. So I just really like that one. We also can't talk about this game anymore
Starting point is 00:29:43 without me just reading the Eagles injury report, which I feel like this is something just filibustering, like the Senate right now. But running back Miles Sanders has an ankle injury. Darren Sproles is on injured reserve with a hip injury. Zach Ertz, questionable the ribs injury. Alshan Jeffrey, injured reserve of the foot injury.
Starting point is 00:29:59 Deshawn Jackson, injured reserved of an abdomen injury. Nelson Aguilar, an injured reserve of the knee injury. Right tackle Lane Johnson, questionable to ankle injury. Guard Brandon Brooks on injured reserve of the shoulder injury. Defensive tackle Fletcher Cox, questionable with a triceps injury. Defensive end, Derek Barnett, ankle injury. Linebacker, Camusier-Hill injured reserve of the back injury. Cornerback Ronald Darby, injured reserve of the hip hip.
Starting point is 00:30:23 injury. Cornerback Jalen Mills has an ankle injury. Cornerback Sidney Jones has a back injury. Cornerback Yvante Maddox has an abdomen injury. Why are the Seahawks only favored by a point and a half? Because they've been pretty badly. They actually lost three of their last four games. So that's the thing is like here's I think the weird paradox of this game. On paper, the Eagles are like how on earth are they going to compete, right? Because they've had this no name group. I mean, I mean, look, you know what? Sometimes, you know, this is our job. We got to know stuff. I'm going to be honest.
Starting point is 00:30:53 I did not know who Josh Perkins was two weeks ago. Full disclosure. Deontay Burnett, Robert Foster. I had no idea who any of these people are. I get paid to this for living. I had never in my... Not Robert Foster. He's on the bills.
Starting point is 00:31:06 I don't remember. Like, DECAD, you were doing draft expert. Did you know who Deonté Burnett was three weeks ago? I knew who he was. Here, I'll say this, Danny. I knew who he was. I had no idea he was on the Eagles anymore. I thought he was on the Jets.
Starting point is 00:31:20 Greg Ward is like an A.AF receiver. he's like the most well-known player they have at wide receiver right now after J.J.R. Segal-Waideside. And so you're like, oh, well, how is this going to work? Well, it's working because the Eagles are, I believe they're one of the four best teams on third down still. Carson Wentz is making this work somehow. And yes, they shredded bad defenses like Washington, Giants, like not a ton of
Starting point is 00:31:41 play for, not a lot of going on great in their secondaries. Having said that, this Seahawks defense is not much better than those teams, especially of Kandre Diggs, who defensive back that Dika, you can explain better than me, has changed the Seahawks defense. And if he misses this game, like he did the last couple of weeks, Seahawks defense, is it that much better than, oh, wait, this is my opportunity. Hey, D.K., what Seahawks defense? I know, I fucked it up.
Starting point is 00:32:04 Damn. Tell me about the Seahawks defense. Tell me about the – yeah, I've never done that in the reverse. But is this Seahawks defense much better than Washington or the Giants? Like, can't the Eagles just do what they did? No. I mean, not right now, and especially not with the injuries. Like, Jadavian Clownie, he's been fighting a core injury, and he is a big,
Starting point is 00:32:23 big factor for them. I think if he can get healthy and be sort of 100% or whatever, because when he was not 100%, he's been a non-factor. He got completely shut down against the 49ers last week. And I don't know if you remember going back to, I think it was like week 10 or 9 or something like that. He absolutely took over the game versus the 49ers in that game. So his health is a huge, huge question mark.
Starting point is 00:32:46 Chondre Diggs is due back this week. It sounds like positive that he's going to come back. But since he's left, the Seahawks secondary has just been a disaster, especially in the middle of the field. Lano Hill has just been not good, and it really affects everything they do because they just can't do the things they want to do schematically.
Starting point is 00:33:05 They can't play one high stuff if they don't trust the guy in the back. And that just affects everything. There's like a ripple effect everywhere. So anyways, the point is they're just banged up. They have not been good even when healthy. So when they're not healthy, it's just especially grim for that defense. I think the Eagles will win this game outright. I think that taking the Eagles points
Starting point is 00:33:24 and if you want to throw me in a tease or whatever is the best bet I see this week for a simple reason. The Eagles offense and Doug Peterson is coaching this team like they're very aware of who they are. They're very aware that they are banged up and they're just trying to do what they're just trying to survive. They're not going down field anymore. They dink and dunk and they dink and dunk
Starting point is 00:33:42 and they call their third down plays knowing when they're going to go front and forth, which is why they've been amazing unsustainably, quote-unquote, great on third down for three years. it's because their fourth down charts change how they call plays in third down. And it works and they do what they do. The Seahawks, and tell me if I'm wrong, D.K., the Seahawks, like Pete Carroll's not really treating the Seahawks defense like they're bad. They're treating it like they're still like, have Earl Thomas at safety.
Starting point is 00:34:08 They don't. And because, as you said, Lano Hill's not playing great at safety. Like, they don't have this great, especially Shaq Griffin, their great quarterback is not healthy. They're playing like this fantastic secondary. they don't really know who they are. They're not adapting. When in doubt, I'm going to go with the team who is really firm in their identity and at home.
Starting point is 00:34:28 Yeah, and that's what I wrote, actually. I wrote about the Seahawks earlier this week, or last week, earlier this week. I can't remember exactly when it was. Time all blends together. We don't know what decade it is. I said, end quote, Carol must at the very least stop coaching
Starting point is 00:34:43 like he's protecting a subpar quarterback with the best defense in the world because he has neither. And it's pissed me off. It pisses a lot of Seahawks fans off, too. Like, he plays so conservatively on offense because he, and he, like, they, like, you know, punt when they're at the 35-yard line of their opponent because they think they're going to pin the, you know, pin the offense back and let their defense go to work.
Starting point is 00:35:04 But the problem is they don't have a good defense. And so it just absolutely pisses a lot of people off. And, you know, Carol definitely deserves the benefit of the doubt from 10 years of, you know, very sustained success. And I'm not calling for his firing anything like that. But it's definitely been one of those things that's. been really, really frustrating is how conservative they are with Russell Wilson and how much they trust a defense when it's not even playing well. So it worries me. And last year we saw the
Starting point is 00:35:31 exact same thing. They went into Dallas and just tried to run the ball the entire game. And Dallas absolutely stuffed them. And they never, and they waited way too long. They did not never do it, but they waited way too long to go to Russell Wilson and let him start doing his thing. And I'm really worried that's going to happen again this week. When they don't even have like they're down to like their fifth string running back at this point. Exactly. Like you just said earlier the Eagles, the best way to attack them is their outside cornerbacks. Do you think the Seahawks are coming into this game being like, you're going to throw outside really aggressively the whole game? No way. It would surprise me. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:36:05 But I love when you get angry though, so I'm kind of loving this. I love angry Dekechis. I want you to be angry. If there's one thing that makes me angry, it's sort of the in-game decision-making for the Seahawks. And so yeah, that's, I'm really, really hoping they come out aggressively. Okay. So we're fading. Fating Russell. Wilson in this game because bad weather Russell and also who knows if they're actually going to take advantage of a good matchup. Right. We like DK Matt I'm skeptical of DK Metcalf honestly.
Starting point is 00:36:28 I know you like him because of the matchup. I don't know if they're going to take super advantage of it, but they usually will hit DK Metcalf. Yeah. And let me say again, it is, he has a boom-buss element to him for sure. All right, contrarian play Craig. We cut against the grain. I don't know if this is that contrarian, but I think they're
Starting point is 00:36:44 like the least sexy offense in the playoffs maybe, but I just love the bills this week. I like everyone on the bills, just like I liked that Falcons Bucks game, which kind of was decent last week. My Fandle team of all Falcons and Bucks was like in the top 38%. Did you win money? No, I did not win money. But if it was a 50-50 contest, I would have won money.
Starting point is 00:37:06 But it wasn't. How did the Robert Griffin lineup go? I forgot. Don't worry about it. All right. Mind your own business. I like the bills this week. I don't know what all of the prices are, all their players combined. I don't know, $32,000.
Starting point is 00:37:19 They're playing Houston. So let's start with Josh Allen. I'll be quick here. The Texans allow the fourth most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks per fandal scoring. And Allen's got that floor. He's got that rushing floor. He's first in rushing T's with nine this year, third in yards with 510. He was the QB6 this year.
Starting point is 00:37:37 He's kind of had a rough end of the season, but he's played a lot of really good defenses. And Houston is not really that. And that's why I don't mind John Brown or Cole Beasley, which we'll get to our lineup later. But the Texans corners are not good. They have 35-year-old Jonathan Joseph. They got Vernon Hargraves from the Bucks, and they got Gary and Conley from, I think, the Raiders. Hargraves and Conley have allowed 11 touchdowns combined
Starting point is 00:37:58 in their coverage this year, which is terrible. So I kind of think whether it's John Brown-deep, Cole Beasley under, I like them both. I like Devin Singletary, too. The Texans are 25 against the run. Since week nine, Devon Singletary's had 16.5 rushing attempts per game since they've benched, or, you know, since he took the leading spot from Frank Gore.
Starting point is 00:38:17 So I also think the... the bills are going to win this game. I love the bills. I want to talk real quick about Josh Allen because I feel like last year we all talked about him, you know, after last year, I should say, about how he was absolutely going to regress as a rusher. And in some ways he did, you know, he finished with fewer rushing yards this season, but he actually scored more touchdowns than he did as a rookie. He led the damn league more than Lamar Jackson. Yeah, so he had eight touchdowns as a rookie. And I remember thinking at the beginning of the year, like, oh, that's definitely going to go down. That seems like an outlier. He had nine. This
Starting point is 00:38:48 year. So I just think, you know, he is that kind of guy, not calling him Cam Newton necessarily, but he is very dangerous in the red zone because of what he can do with his legs. And so that gives you a little bit more of a boost. How do you feel about Devin Sincletary in this game, D.K.? I like Singletary too. I mean, I just been a huge fan of his. I think... Running back for the bills. They'll probably get him a good amount of touches. And I think that's an important thing to do when you're talking about sort of like these middle of the road priced guys. And yeah, I just think he's very elusive.
Starting point is 00:39:19 You know, he doesn't have a ton of upside as a pass catcher, but there have been a few games in there where he's gotten good amount of targets. So maybe he'll, you know, if he can get like three to four targets in that game, in this game, that would be great. Who's your contrarian for the week? My contrarian play of the week, and I hate myself for this, but it's Tayson Hill of the Saints. Why do you hate yourself? That's a great pick.
Starting point is 00:39:41 Love Taysson Hill. So he's actually listed, he's listed as a tight end, you know, because a lot, for a lot of season. On Fandil, not in real life. Yeah, at least in, on like Yahoo and ESPN, I believe he was still only listed as a quarterback, so you couldn't really plug him in as a tight end despite the fact that he was getting a good amount of touches.
Starting point is 00:39:58 But he's listed as a tight end on Fanduel, so that kind of gives him some either like low end, like bargain bin, tight end or flex appeal. It's the most mad and creative player dude that there has ever been. He's playing tight end running back. And quarterback sometimes. And receiver quarterback, special teams.
Starting point is 00:40:16 I kind of expect them to play defensive end at some point. Maybe kick a field goal. Dude. Yeah. He gets looks in the red zone. It's just one of those things where he is also another sort of boom or bust guy.
Starting point is 00:40:27 If you look at his scoring totals, it's been like double digits one, double digits three. You know, like he's kind of hit or miss. But Payton, Sean Payton is definitely obsessed with using this guy at the most random. I'm obsessed with using the guy. He's amazing.
Starting point is 00:40:41 Real gadget guy. He's the definition of a gadget guy. I don't know. Gadgett implies it's not essential. He's like an iPhone. It's like I don't think I could live in an NFL world without taste of hell. He's the glue. He's the glue guy of this team.
Starting point is 00:40:52 Yeah. So he's 5200. And so I was pretty much deciding between putting him a contrarian or bargain. And I think he's absolutely a bargain with too because 5200, that's the same as guys like Deonté Burnett, who we just talked about, Ola B.C. Johnson, David Moore. Some of these guys that are going to get like one target in a game. again he has a little bit of a bust potential but he's used in so many different ways it would not surprise me whatsoever
Starting point is 00:41:20 if he got like two touchdowns in this game so yeah he's my contrarian sort of slash bargain men play a week so we yeah we had to like kind of retire the galaxy brain because we felt that galaxy braining in the playoffs was kind of like a lie like there's not actually a galaxy brain there's four games yeah
Starting point is 00:41:36 they're all good teams and however I have reached cosmic apotheosis once more and I have a Galaxy Brain. Let's hear it. Linebacker he landed Roberts for New England Patriots.
Starting point is 00:41:50 I like that one, yeah. He's not priced because he's not actually listed. But So it's real galaxy brain. It's real galaxy brain. Did you hear what he said this week, like after he had a
Starting point is 00:42:02 touchdown? I guess this is too, no, against the dolphins, he had that long touchdown. Yeah, he did a touchdown. Did you hear what he said? No. He said, quote,
Starting point is 00:42:11 I run through a motherfucker's face. Offense, defense, special teams. I think that's why Bill likes me. That's a, remember how people were getting all up in arms about George Kittle, stealing Marshawn Lynch quotes? That's a Marshawn Lynch quote, too. Yeah, Marshawn had that quote, like, when you run through a motherfucker fast or something
Starting point is 00:42:31 like that? Face, it's face, it's face, I think. Oh, was it face? Rips from Marshawn Lynch? Yeah, yeah. Remember that interview? He's like, you run through a motherfucker face? Yeah. And he's like over and over and over again.
Starting point is 00:42:42 Okay, so Elan and Roberts is, off my galaxy brat. I can't believe he's plagiarizing. Plagiarizing Marshall Lynch is not allowed. Paying homage to Marshall. Yeah, you're right. Fine. Yeah, it's an homage. Amage or homage?
Starting point is 00:42:53 Amage. Paying homage. I don't even know. Homage. Let's move on. I'm kidding. I'm kidding. Let's get out of here. Bargain bin of the week.
Starting point is 00:43:04 D.K. Get us rolling. All right. My bargain bin in the week is Kenny Stills of Houston going up against Buffalo. We've kind of talked a little bit on the show about how we don't really like use and that much this this week. But with Will Fuller out, I think that gives Stills potential for a little bit more volume. More importantly, though, I think is the deal with White probably shadowing Hopkins throughout the game.
Starting point is 00:43:27 I think that just gives Stills a better matchup potential. Because if you actually go through the games that Will Fuller has been out this year, Stills hasn't had incredible numbers, like 322, 4 catches 52, 4 catches, 27 yards, 2 catches 8 yards. Those are the four games without Will Fuller. So it's not necessarily just because Fuller is out, but I just think, you know, based on the matchups, based on this particular matchup with Buffalo, I think it gives him a chance to move around the offense,
Starting point is 00:43:54 do some things, give Deshaun Watson an option other than Hopkins who's going to be, you know, being guarded by one of the best defenders in the NFL. So kind of like him from that sense. In his last four games, part of the season finale, which he sat out with a knee injury, which is he's still been limited. had limited with that knee injury, but it's looking like he'll play. His four games before that, nine targets, five catches 57 yards.
Starting point is 00:44:19 The game before that, he had three targets, three catches, 35 yards, two touchdowns. And then he had a touchdown two weeks before that as well. So he's, you know, he's definitely a bit of a boom-buss, but I just like this matchup. I think he's very, you know, cheap based on what he's going to get in terms of snaps and routes run. So that's one I kind of like for this bargain bin right now. Beautiful. Last one for me, my bargain bin, just.
Starting point is 00:44:41 just Tennessee defense maybe playing against the Patriots. But I think we have special guests to discuss this one, curious about. Titans defense is the cheapest defense available on Fandall this week. That's crazy. I know. The Pats have no receivers that can get open. Well, he's Julian Edelman, but he's... What's the overrunner on trick plays this weekend from the Pats?
Starting point is 00:44:59 We were just talking about this on my podcast. Four. One flea flicker. There's going to be one double reverse. Edelman will throw at least one pass. And then Sunniu might throw a pass. Oh, wow. You know, Sunil will throw a pass.
Starting point is 00:45:11 And then we know we're running the Allandand Roberts play again. It was our best play of the year. Do you think Atlanta Roberts catches the pass from Sunu? Yeah. I mean, did you see the athleticism? Get to reach over his head and then turn around. He ducks, he ducks the guy out. I think there's a fake kick or a fake punt potential.
Starting point is 00:45:29 They're going to be kitchen sink in this. How worried are you about playing the... Do you usually have plans a wild card weekend? Like, what do you usually do? No, it's my favorite weekend of the year. I love the four games in a row because the games are always close. You know, this reminds me like, my mom, her favorite week of the year is when the Giants are on by. Because she loves watching football without having to worry about the Giants.
Starting point is 00:45:48 Is that why Wildcar Weekends your favorite weekend of the year? I just, I love the gambling. I have the dream of going 11-0 against the spread every year. And every year, it goes down in flames either in one or round one or two. Well, you got to get an over-unders. I like the fantasy draft stuff, like the daily. And then the reason I want to come on, this, my East Coast draft, I'm in the playoffs. and we have the greatest system of all time
Starting point is 00:46:12 that I want to tell your listeners about. Top four make it. Protect six up to six from your team. And then here's what the breakdown is. And I was going to ask you guys what you thought I should do with my pick. Oh, you haven't made this decision yet. It's the email draft just started.
Starting point is 00:46:29 Oh, wow. Okay. So the top team, it's two quarterbacks, three running backs, three receivers, one tight end, one D, one kicker, one wild card. who can be any position, could be a quarterback. Wait, so this could be a three-quarterback league?
Starting point is 00:46:42 Yeah. Oh, my God. Could be Landon Roberts, who knows? Totality of the playoffs. Everything adds up. Wow. So if you have Tannahill, and he ends up making the Super Bowl
Starting point is 00:46:52 and you get four Tana Hill games, he might end up getting, like, what, 100 points. You know how you're, like, obsessed with collecting quarterbacks? Yeah. And you'll have six on a one quarterback league. It would be great. This is your quarterback.
Starting point is 00:47:01 This is your time. Can't have more than three. So the top guy protected, Deshawn Watson, Henry and Lynch Lockett and Marquise Brown and Bucker The second guy's like
Starting point is 00:47:13 I don't like any of my keepers Even though he had Debo and Ingram I don't understand why he didn't want to keep those He's like I'm cleaning slate I'm not protecting anybody He got rid of Mark Ingram? Yeah It's a bad decision
Starting point is 00:47:21 It was bad decision My guys are Lamar I have no running backs Tyree Killen Hopkins Kiddle Ravens D Tucker And then Rob Stone My buddy
Starting point is 00:47:35 Drew Brees, Comara, A.J. Brown, Kelsey, Cook, and Robbie Gold. It's pretty tough. But snake draft. So now we're snake draft in it. I'm third. Stoner's fourth. So he's behind me. So I'm ahead of him. I'm sorry. It's not snake draft. It's just top pick every round goes to the top guy. So every round I'm third. So you get to draft from all the dudes who didn't make the playoffs. So first pick, Patrick Moves. Obviously. Yeah. Second pick, this was a doozy. Russell Wilson. Wow. So right now on the board for me. That's interesting. That's a bad pick.
Starting point is 00:48:17 Yeah, I thought that was a bad pick. They could easily lose this week. Well, I think his thinking is he's betting Wilson wins this week and then plays next week. So he's getting at least two games, right? So on the board for me are Aaron Rogers, who's not playing this week. Jimmy G not playing this week Aaron Jones
Starting point is 00:48:39 not playing this week Davin Cook Ingram Michael Thomas who is playing this week I have my thoughts in this week DK what do you think So in my opinion
Starting point is 00:48:54 The choices are Rogers or Jimmy G who do you think is going to go further I actually I think the Niners are the best team Yeah DK you agree Well I
Starting point is 00:49:04 I was going to say, if you're not going to pick a quarterback, you definitely get Michael Thomas. But if you absolutely want to pick a quarterback. I think Michael Thomas might outscore Aaron Rogers in the playoffs. I don't think you should pick Rock. So if you're doing within the quarterbacks, I don't think the Packers are the move. I mean, football outside is. I'm not on the Packers. I think they could lose.
Starting point is 00:49:21 They're the second worst 13-3-team ever, Aaron shots at football. The Pythagorean stuff where they should have won 9.6 games. I saw that. Jimmy G, though, I think I can get three games out of him. In our league, a quarterback's even a little more. valuable because if you get a long pass, you get extra points. And Breeze isn't out there? Breeze is gone.
Starting point is 00:49:39 So for me, the choices are Michael Thomas and hope the Saints go the whole way or Jimmy G. Now I would have Jimmy G. Kittle and Gould. And Ingram's still out there too? Ingram's out there too. Wait, sorry. Are your receivers again? Well, I have Hill and Hopkins. If you have Hill Hopkins and you add Michael Thomas.
Starting point is 00:50:00 But then I, then that's, I'm set at receiver now. I would only be able to use my wildcard position. I have three running back holes. So that would be the case for Ingram. I just don't know, like, what am I getting at Ingram? Quarterbacks score the most points, and they're the most reliable. And at a certain point, I think you do want to, if you could get three quarterbacks, that would be ideal. So I was thinking, if I get Jimmy G here and then I don't go for another four picks, Rogers will go.
Starting point is 00:50:24 But then Tanahill Brady, Allen Went still available. What is this league? How important is it to get points in the first, in the wild card round? It's just total. Oh, it's your total for the whole playoffs. Total. Oh, that's cool. So, ideally would want to get three or four games out of whoever I'm picking.
Starting point is 00:50:40 So that's why you have to put the playoff strategy in. This is why this is such a good league. That is, all right. That's really fun. D.K., would you go like Michael Thomas? And Craig, too, would you guys go like Michael Thomas, or would you guys go like Jimmy J? Trying to get three games.
Starting point is 00:50:53 I think I would, well, he has to fill a roster, though. That's the thing. Right. So you think running back, maybe? But the thing is, with quarterbacks, because I can have up to three in my roster, which is another really fun wrinkle. If I grab one now, and I need to have two anyway,
Starting point is 00:51:07 and then potentially my wildcard could be the third quarterback. I think you go Jimmy G. And then try and grab Ingram on the way back. And hope he's there. Yeah. So you figure the next ones will be Rogers, Jimmy G, Thomas, Aaron Jones are the next four in some order. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:51:25 Well, so you're going to have to... And then Ingram could be available coming back to me in the next round. So your third running back is going to be like Rex Burkhead. Oh, it is going to... I'd be delighted to get Rex Burkhead. I could be looking at Matt Brita. I could be looking at Devin Singletary for one game. Wait, where's Rahim Mostert?
Starting point is 00:51:43 Is he on this list? He's on the list. Oh, he's out there? No, he's available. Oh, my God. Okay, so here's what... Reheme, I would... I'm not kidding.
Starting point is 00:51:50 I would pick Rahim Mastert first among all the running backs. I would pick him over Mark Ingram. So I can get him next round. I would snatch him. So I could... The other thing... Did Jimmy G and then get Mastard? Well, people have won this way because I already have Kittle.
Starting point is 00:52:03 Where I just like, I'm all in on the Niners. I think the Niners are playing three games and I have all their guys. And we won't post this podcast until you draft Mostert, so don't worry. Right, right, right. We're not posted this for a while. So I think I should take Jimmy G. Because Michael Thomas, who they play next round? No.
Starting point is 00:52:20 It would be New Orleans at Green Bay probably. If they win, they would play the two seed, yeah, because they're the three. So they would play the Packers, which is good for you because that means the Saints will probably win. Also, here's the thing for you. You also like, like Jimmy G. you want to root for him. But at a certain point,
Starting point is 00:52:35 like, when you're on the fence about stuff, I always feel that take the players you love and want to watch on TV. I think the Niners are really good. I'm just so impressed by them this year. They're the team I feel the best about in either conference. So it would make sense for me
Starting point is 00:52:50 to load up on them in this league and hope I'm right. More than the Ravens. The Ravens still have a little, haven't really been there before feeling. Not that the Niners have been there, but the Niners, I've played in so many playoff games this year already.
Starting point is 00:53:05 You know, they've been in some wars. They're conditioned for this. Whereas the Ravens have... How many actual big games have they played? Like three? The one where they wallop the Patriots. Well, that one. That one happened.
Starting point is 00:53:15 I remember that one. KC. game. And then the San Francisco game. Those are their three biggest games, right? Yeah, but that was a weird. The weather was great. The Ravens have an incredible amount of swag. I don't even worried about, like,
Starting point is 00:53:28 the not haven't been their factor, I think. They're just so confident. They actually remind us, me a lot of early Seahawks where they just didn't give a shit. They didn't give a shit about prior, you know, like, act like you've been there type of thing.
Starting point is 00:53:42 They're just so swaggy. I love that part of it. I'm curious. That'll be a great Super Bowl. I don't really cares when the Super Bowl as much as I kind of just want the final four teams to be Ravens Chiefs in the AFC Championship because I think those are the two best teams in the NFC.
Starting point is 00:53:56 49ers Saints and the NFC Championship. And then I just want the four best teams. I'm curious who you and DECA, I'm curious who you guys think would come out of those. So if it's 49er Saints, then I get three Ingram games, so that would lead toward the case
Starting point is 00:54:07 to her Ingram. But I just feel like Jimmy G is more valuable. Well, no, because that would be two because he's not playing this weekend. Yeah, but I'm saying I can get three maximum
Starting point is 00:54:16 out of Jimmy G. If I think they're beating the Saints, I still get my three Michael Thomas games. Here's the point. This is why I wanted to come on. This is a really, this gets me caring about this league for 21 weeks versus 16.
Starting point is 00:54:29 I just like it more. And the top team is still rewarded. the team that won our league because he gets picked Pat Mahomes and he gets the fifth pick and the ninth pick. He gets to cherry pick everybody. And then when we're picking our teams, like Stoner who finished fourth,
Starting point is 00:54:45 but he has Breeze and Kamar, he has Kelsey. He took a couple of playoff guys hoping they were made the playoffs. And then they made the playoffs. Yeah. Do you think this could work as dynasty? I like this as a style. And Danny, didn't you bring up
Starting point is 00:54:59 the idea of playing DFS but where you only get points of team? win. It's somewhat similar to that. That's my dream fantasy. How I think fantasy is like the platonic ideal of what it should be is this but a season long where you
Starting point is 00:55:14 your players get their points if they win the game combined with this where they also get in the playoffs because the whole thing is like every player say after a game when they did well and they lost. They're like well none of it matters. Yeah, they get a zero. So imagine if your fantasy season whether it's DFS or like
Starting point is 00:55:30 season long your players just got goose egg. And so this year we're like, oh, Sequin wouldn't go one. Even McCaffrey wouldn't have been great. That should be a DFS league every week where you should... It should be tied into whether it would be really fun. Imagine writing Derek Henry and Ryan Tannihill, but it's like they're winning, so they're actually the best because they're winning and that's what matters instead of garbage time. That's how you care garbage time. That's how you kind of reconcile the difference wherever it gets annoyed of like you're rooting in the fourth quarter for garbage time points.
Starting point is 00:55:56 No one cares. And then I would love that combined with this. Well, Tannehill is going to end up on my team because I think they're going to... at least have one big game. Okay, so let's get this pick made, though. So you're between D-Kade. Do you think Aaron Jones or Michael Thomas or Jimmy G right here? I think it's Jimmy G.
Starting point is 00:56:12 I think that's the right move. Only because quarterbacks are worth more in this league. That's what I, yeah, that's what I was going to say. It's like anytime you have multiple quarterbacks, those guys really carry your team. And so I can see that. Like, I think there is an argument for Michael Thomas, but I can definitely see just grabbing Jimmy G
Starting point is 00:56:29 and then getting boasted on the next round or Ingram if he's still alive. I'll post all this stuff on Instagram so your listeners can see it. Before I go, Danny, I just want to say, congrats because the Eagles plus two momentum has already started. And it's all heading toward that game
Starting point is 00:56:46 actually being played and people going, oh shit, Russell Wilson's on the other team. What were we doing? Why did we think Boston Scott and Greg Ward and all these dudes were going to beat Russell Wilson in a playoff game? God, we're idiots. But you're the Cold Weather Lamar guy.
Starting point is 00:56:59 What about windy Russell Wilson? Bad weather Russell Wilson. How windy is it? How windy is it going to be? 17 miles an hour right now is the forecast, but it could be higher. Oh, Christ. Also, the wind in the Pats game, 23 miles an hour. It's going to be windy there.
Starting point is 00:57:12 Oh, my God. That's going to kill Brady. Do you think it'll just topple over? Brady's bad in zero-degree wind in the first quarter. You can't just cut through the wind anymore? You think Nikil Harry ever played 38-degree weather at Arizona State? James White's going to catch like 15 screen passes. That's what you would have said last week.
Starting point is 00:57:27 We threw them three times. I just want, I want them to use Nikil Harry. like they use Patterson. When he's on the field, he's a constant reverse, swing pass, just use his athleticism versus just sending him downfield doing these back shoulder throws that Brady, like, can't really throw anymore. Or when he throws, it's like one out of every three times. Our best bit on this pot is that Craig has a great theory
Starting point is 00:57:52 that I think is the secret to play a football, which is we focus on where teams are from, but it's like guys who play for the Packers aren't like from Lambo, Wisconsin. It's like it's really about where they're from. and how many jackets, how many cold weather Instagrams do they have? Jared Goff has never left the city of, or the state of California in his whole life.
Starting point is 00:58:09 I believe in this. I don't think the Patriots have many guys who have jackets or like cold weather Instagrams. It's just Tom Brady. But like Isaiah Win, Georgia. Sonny Michelle, Georgia. Like, these guys are not... Do you think Brady's hair keeps them warm,
Starting point is 00:58:22 whatever's going on up there? I have to go. Thanks for having me on. All right, thank you, Bill. That was... We didn't even know the title of that. I don't know. I don't know who's...
Starting point is 00:58:32 Flout of that? Did he find that online? Or did they make it up? I don't know, but that's pretty sick. It's a great league. We should all do it. Yeah. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:58:40 All right. Here's our Fandle lineup of the week. Dika, who we got. All right. So I'm going to start off with Josh Allen, quarterback of the bills, going up against Houston's poor defense. As we talked about earlier,
Starting point is 00:58:50 we like his touchdown potential, his rushing floor at running back. Alvin Camara, 8200, going up against the Vikings. We got Devin Singletary at the other running back spot against Houston at a wide receiver one position we got Michael Thomas obvious choice 8,800 going up against the Vikings rough pass defense and we like D.K. Metcalf at our second receiver spot. Really hoping that we don't see the wind game version of Russell Wilson in that one. And then our third receiver spot, John Brown. We got the Josh Allen, John Brown, singletary stack, hoping the Bill's offense kind of explodes against a bad Houston defense.
Starting point is 00:59:29 All right. And then we got at tight end, we got Jared Cook at home against the Vikings. We got Travis Homer on the Seahawks. The Seahawks pass catching back. He's been good, actually. Yeah, he's our little bargain play. He's going to be our flex. And then rounding us off at defense, good thing Bill's still not on the pod here.
Starting point is 00:59:48 Or maybe he would endorse this. I actually think he would. Tennessee Titans defense playing New England, $3,600. Yeah. We got Wendy, Tom Brady. Who knows where these balls are going? Who knows where his toupee is going to go? The only thing we know
Starting point is 01:00:01 where this podcast is going which is it's over. Okay. Thank you, Craig. Thank you, D.K. Are we still thanking Eli Manning? Or is that over? That's over.
Starting point is 01:00:12 It's over? All right. Well, we can still hope Tom Brady collapses. So thank you to everyone for listening. Best of luck this weekend. We'll see you guys next week.

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