The Ringer NFL Show - Conference Championship Questions and Answers | The Ringer NFL Show

Episode Date: January 22, 2021

Joe House and Warren Sharp answer the most intriguing questions for the upcoming Packers-Buccaneers (20:30) and Bills-Chiefs (57:25) conference championship games. Hosts: Joe House and Warren Sharp Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, everybody, before we get into today's episode, I want to let everybody know that the Ringer NFL show will be going live on Sunday immediately after the final conference championships game. We've been doing it all playoffs. Kevin Clark has been getting on with Ryan Rucillo and Nora Preciati. And it's been outstanding. We're doing it again. We're bringing it back. You can't stop us. It's been fantastic. We're going to. going live. Kevin Clark and Nora are together breaking down both matchups. So make sure you are subscribed to the ringer's YouTube channel at YouTube.com slash the ringer. And follow at Ringer NFL on the Twitter. You can check all the action out. We will be right back. Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. I am Warren Sharp and I am joined by the one and only Joe House to talk conference championships. Only three more games left in the 2020 NFL season.

But we are down to the best four teams in the NFL. I think we got four outstanding quarterbacks. Nobody is a shocker to be here. If you were to look at the beginning of the season, I would think people would be surprised. Buffalo got it here, House. But all these other teams, I think, are absolutely the cream of the crop in the NFL right now.

And I am super jacked up to watch four great quarterbacks and four great teams battle it out, to see who goes to the Super Bowl, but how are you feeling this fine championship weekend? I am just like you, super duper, extra super excited because this is exactly what you said, the four best teams. It's unequivocal. None of these teams caught a hot streak and, and, you know, came out of nowhere. These are the best teams. I will confess to you, Warren Sharp. I am the tiniest, tiniest, very little smallest smidgen of sad

because there's only three games left. And we're seeing these very best teams this weekend in two games on Sunday. I don't know what to do with my life. This is what happens every year at this time of year, Sharpie. Yeah, no, it's, I don't want to even think about it, House. I'll tell you that much. I don't even, don't even talk to me about it yet.

I am so buried deep in research analysis, looking for edges, searching hunting. I'm excited about this week. I think it's going to be a fun week from a viewer's perspective, even if you have no money on the games, which I know we all are going to have money on the games. We can't get by without it. But even if you're just a casual fan, your mom or dad, you know, brother, sister, sitting around your kids, you can watch these games and you're going to be entertained. And so that's all I can really think about right now. I understand. And that is exactly the right way to devote your time and football energy. And you just mentioned it. There are endless permutations to how to size this weekend up because the quarterback stuff is extremely juicy. How great that we have Tom Brady

once again in a conference championship. Love them or hate him. He's in it. We have the MVP, Aaron Rogers. I think if you hate him, you probably would rather he lost last week. But really? I would think so. Okay.

Well, I guess that's deep hate. It's good for football to see Tom outside of a Patriots uniform in a conference championship again. It's very rich. It's a very juicy. storyline for him to stick it to his, his old mentor. I think we now know, right? Was it Belichick or was it Brady? I think we have our answer, Sharpie. But that's for another ringer NFL show at another time.

We have conference championships to sink our teeth into. Before we jump into it, though, let me tell you, I ended up going 500 on the week last week. Okay. in these divisional games. And I won't bore everybody with the jot and tittle of which hit and which didn't hit. I will just say I was extremely disappointed. It hurt my feelings that the Baltimore Ravens only scored three points.

My favorite bet of divisional weekend was the teaser of Green Bay down to a half point, matched up with the Baltimore Ravens, taking them from plus two and a half up through the and the seven to plus eight and a half. And one play basically eliminated the Ravens from the opportunity. Well, we'll say two plays, the opportunity to cash that bet for me. Well, I will say that you're not in the minority. A lot of people, probably most people who are submitting teasers, everybody likes to submit the proper teaser strategy, which is moving through the three and the seven,

provides the optimal value. and they were moving through the three that was the only game that you could do so with. So a lot of people were teasing the Raven. So you're not in the minority at all there. I did think from that perspective, you know, the sports books would certainly love if the bills were able to win by double digits here, knock out all those teasers that people put in there. There were a couple of factors in that game. Obviously, you had the weather. And so when you're losing and you've got a backup quarterback in there now, how are you going to get back into the game, throwing the ball with all that win?

this is not a passing team to begin with. We talked about it on last week's show how the bills needed to get up in this game to force the Ravens to throw the ball. Little did we know that the wind at the moment we were discussing it was going to be so prevalent during the game. I mean, you're talking about things as specific as quarter centers trying to have a shotgun snap. The coaches admitted was getting messed up with the wind.

You're talking about just looking at the game when the guys trying to kick a field goal and the uprights are swaying in the in the, a wind. So you know it was a major factor throughout the course of that game. And it absolutely was a big impediment for the Ravens to try to come back in addition to the fact they don't have Lamar Jackson. So I don't think you're in the minority there. The bills, they did a great job of holding the Ravens down to a low score. Certainly if you don't have the pick six and they, you know, are able to do something else with that position. I think they threw it on a third down anyways. So even if it's an incompletion, you're still not going to have a touchdown. But, but they were

driving to tie the score at 10 and all of a sudden, you know, they fall down 17 to 3. But one thing that's interesting, and we'll talk about this when we get into the deep dive into the Bills game this week house, is that the Bills defense is going to be playing something totally different this week than they were last week. Last week is all about it's windy. Let's shut down the run game. Let's force these guys to throw the ball. And we're going to dare Lamar Jackson to throw the ball over our heads and hit Marquise Brown. And we just don't think he's going to be able to hit those passes. So yeah, Marquise is running wide open a number of plays.

But we don't want that. But as long as we're stopping the run game, we don't think they're going to hit those passes. Here, you're playing a completely different strategy against the Kansas City Chiefs. You are sitting back in this cover two shell. You're trying to get them to run the football. So Leslie Frazier and the Buffalo Bills will have to come with a totally different game plan. I can't wait to talk about this game with you. Yeah, I can't wait to hear what you got for me.

I think maybe in terms of setting this up as we get these games lined up and start, you know, getting into the aspects of the matchups, what if I share with you where I am right now? I have four bets that I'm cogitating on, that I'm chewing on a little bit here. What if I share those with you? And then we see over the course of the conversation, I have a bunch of questions here for you. When we're talking about the matchups, if you want to talk me out of, of any of these plays. Is that a good way to go about this? I think that's the optimal way. I think that's the fair way. I'm looking forward to your questions. But first, let's share with me and the listeners

what you're thinking of right now as you enter the beginning of the pod. Yes. The threshold. The threshold. My favorite bet of the entire weekend, and I'll share some of my thoughts why when we get to the game, is Green Bay minus three. And I'm wondering,

and we could talk about it further. Is there any reason to buy down from the three to two and a half? And we can talk about that. So thoughts on just the buying element, I would absolutely say no. Right now, the line, as I'm looking at it, as we're recording this, in the Western shops out in Vegas, it's three and a half. Elsewhere, it's three with heavy juice. I'm talking about three minus 20, three minus 25, et cetera. So you would be paying a hefty, hefty price to get it down to two and a half.

And I absolutely would just recommend laying the three. But if you did have three and a half, I would absolutely be looking to still lay the three. You want to get the three. You want to buy two, it not off of it. Got it. Perfect. I'm also looking at an underdog teaser. I like the idea of pairing up the bucks from their three points up to nine points with the

bills. So the bucks would be up to nine and a half if it's a three and a half point spread for Green Bay. And then teeds the bills up to nine on an underdog teaser just because the thesis for informing that pairing is these games to me feel like one score games. They don't line up as I kind of, you know, consider these teams as two score games, even though I really love Green Bay. I think it's like Green Bay by a touchdown. I don't see them. It's not Green Bay by 10. So that's the teaser. Then I have a favorite money line parlay. That's Green Bay and Kansas City together. Green Bay on my book is minus 175 to win outright and Kansas City is minus 170 to win outright. And that combination, that money line parlay, according to my books, comes out at a smidge under plus 150.

So that's plus odds for just the two home teams, outright winners, the favorites outright winners, right around plus 150. And then the last bet that I'm considering is the weather in Green Bay, the Lambeau field, snow. there's ice potentially. That total is 51.5. I just love the idea as a square better of a snowy snowball, Lambeau Field Sunday conference championship where it's like, you know, 17 to 10 or 20 to 13 or something like that. So I'm looking at the under in that one.

So those are the bets that I'm sort of chewing on, but I'm eager to start talking about these games. and getting your your thoughts. So let's jump into them. Okay. I agree. Let's jump into the games. I first, though, have got to ask you about the logic of some of these bets here.

And because we can't bypass that and talk X's and O's too quickly. I want to answer all your questions. May it have to help resolve some things. And actually, maybe you'll get a better answer to me at the end is to like if you really like this. and so we keep digging through there. I'm just trying to understand you really think that both of the favorites are going to win, but it's going to be a one score game in both cases. So much so, like to do the money line parley with both favorites,

and there's really no, it's not like it's an advantage parley, right? It's not as if one thing happens, the other is more likely to happen. It's not as if you're betting, let's say, the Packers and the over and your money lining those two, or you're parlaying those two together because if the Packers are getting, up in this game and have the lead, then Tampa's going to be throwing it more than running it, and the both are likely to happen. So here you're two totally independent things and you're parling them, but then you're teasing the dogs on the other side. I mean, you just have that such strong conviction that both favorites are going to win, but it's not going to be easy.

Well, I wouldn't say that it's strong conviction. This is the Thursday dance card. I, you know, I've one thing that informed how I built this out. The only game. that I have any conviction on right now is Green Bay minus three. That's exactly right. That's the only one that I have a really strong feeling about. These other ones are, you know, fun. That's always an important part of gambling for me. Of course, the most important thing in terms of fun with gambling is winning, but I tried to construct here a dance card that is not where all of these things can happen. I can win all four of these bets. I'm not ruling out, you know, any of these, these possibilities by way of, you know,

taking a side that's in conflict with, with another side. And that my overall sense of how this Sunday might go is indeed what we've been talking about, which is the home favorites winning the games, but the games being relatively close. And that also like fits with what I'm kind of rooting for, what I think would be exciting, what I want out of these games. So that's really the basic thesis for it. The snow game, the snowy weather under, I mean, you know, I'll look and see as the weather. I don't mind that one quite as much from a logic perspective.

We'll talk about that one and I get that one. It was just the other one. Let me just tell you because I looked up hearing your strategy on teasing the dogs and moneylining the favorites. Last year, I'll just go through like the last four sequences of four. four or five sequences of these championship games. Last year, it was both favorites, won the game and covered. They won by margins of 11 and 17 points. The year before that, both of the games were supposed to be tight.

Both favorites were only favored by about three points, and both of them lost outright. The year before that, so now we're getting back to 2017, one of the favorites, which was supposed to be close, it was actually the Vikings on the road in Philadelphia. Philadelphia the year, Philly won the Super Bowl, and the Vikings were a road favorite there. They lost the game. They got smoked. They lost by 31 points. The other game was the only time in this span that we're going to be discussing that a favorite won the game but did not cover. That was when the Patriots beat the Jaguars in a close game. And the year before that, 2016, both favorites won and covered. They won by margins of 23 points and 19 points.

and we'll go back to 2015, I guess that year, one favorite, one big, that was Cam Newton's Super Bowl year. They beat the Cardinals. They were only a three-point favorite. They won by 34 points. But the New England Patriots, who were a road favorite, lost the game outright to a home dog. So in most of the cases here, we're seeing the home teams that are favored. They either are winning the game by a large margin or they're losing it outright. There's only been one instance where we saw it was a seven and a half point. line. The Patriots win the game. They actually came from behind. That was, I think, the Tom Brady got his finger cut the week before leading up to it, the game on a helmet.

And yeah, so that's, that's where it is. So it's rare that we're going to see close games in this round, but it's just because it hasn't happened in the last five years doesn't mean it's not going to happen in this game in this series. Yeah. And, and, you know, I don't hate that teaser going from six point up to seven point. I don't mind laying a little extra juice. I haven't done the math to see if that's a terrible idea. But then that makes both of those games over 10

rather than sitting at 9. That would mean both of them are north of our two score games. And the favorites, both favorites can win and cover. And I can hit those teasers. Well, I think the tricky part when putting in the teaser is going to be figuring out where the line is going to go for this first game, the Packers game, the one we're going to talk about in a second, because I absolutely think, and I'll get into logic why we are going

to see continued money come in on the Kansas City Chiefs, and you're probably going to be able to get a three and a half there so you could tease with a six and a half point teaser on that one to get up to 10. And at that point, since you're not going through the three, I absolutely would be looking to try to get to 10 on that particular case by spending a little bit more on your teaser to get to the double digits. All right, my football friends, I got to tell you, the playoffs are my absolute favorite time of the year, cannot wait to bet all the action this weekend, these conference championships on Fanduil Sportsbook.

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That's 1-800 G-A-M-B-L-E-R. Why don't we go ahead and start with the first game. You've got the Green Bay Packers. This is the one that you are the most convicted on against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Love this matchup, Tom Brady versus Aaron Rogers. Even if you don't like Tom Brady, it's going to be fun. You can root on Aaron Rogers if you want, hope that he stomps Tom's face in. If you like Pretty Boy Tom, then you can hope that he comes up and pulls out the upset. Let's walk through this matchup, though. I am here to help answer some questions. I'll also chime in with some other ideas that I have if we didn't get to them.

But what are you curious about when it goes to placing your wagers on this game? Yeah. So let me tell you kind of my thesis as to why I like Green Bay and why this game is the one that I have the strongest conviction of. I just think, you know, the Packers' offensive line was dominant against the Rams. And I know that, you know, missing Donald, the way the Rams were. has a pretty profound effect on what that Rams elite defense wants to do. But still,

Green Bay averaged over five yards a carry on the ground. Aaron Rogers was not sacked against the Rams. He was hit one time. Defensively, the Packers have been playing great. They're allowing an average of 16 points over their last four games. I'm also suspicious of Tampa. They turned three turnovers into short field touchdowns last week. As much as anything, Drew Brees delivered to them the win.

Four turnovers, plus four in turnovers in New Orleans last week, I don't think that's repeatable, especially because Green Bay doesn't turn the ball over. Their first in turnover percentage with Aaron Rogers, who's thrown five interceptions all season long. uh green bay also good against good teams they've beaten three straight playoff teams by almost 20 points they're 10 and three against the spread this season as a favorite of eight points or less uh so they they they cover when they play good teams and you know there is um a bunch of history that shows it's really hard for a team that has uh one on the road it's

first two road playoff games. They have a third road playoff game at a conference championship. One in seven straight up and against the spread. Not a good track record for, you know, three straight wins on the road, which is what Tampa is going to have to do. And you can also maybe talk about a cold weather factor working against Tampa, although, you know, Tom Brady has a pretty good track record of playing in the winter. So that's kind of like, you know, where my head is at on this Green Bay team and Tampa. Tampa's offense, you know, they scored 30 points last week, but there was all short field scoring. They had three, they had like 315 total yards in the game. And it wasn't like they cooked against the Washington defense in Super Wild Card

weekend either. No, you don't have to tell me twice about the bucks being somewhat fortunate in that game against the Saints. Certainly when you're plus four in turnover, margin. Remember we walked through, we literally walked through the exercise at length on last week's pod going through the times that there is a sweep during the regular season and a team plays again, that same team in the playoffs and how the team that won both regular season game is 13 and four in those 17 games that has happened. But the four times that it didn't happen, you saw these massive turnover advantages and the other games featured four, four tournaments. from the team that won the first two games and then lost all these turnovers.

And that's exactly what ends up happening in this game. I mean, think about this scenario. You're the Saints. You're up 20 to 13. Your drive, you've held Tom Brady and the bucks only 13 points. You're in the third quarter. Jared Cook, you just throw the ball. You got a first down.

He's running down the field. I think he's being on like the 45 or almost 40 yard line of the bucks. They've crossed midfield driving for another score. You're already up by seven. It looks like. And then he fumble. the ball. And that completely changes the game to pay the bucks pick up that ball, go in and score a touchdown and then tides at 20 and then Drew Brees can't do anything after that.

So that game was absolutely closer than the final score indicates. I think that the bucks were very fortunate with the way that they were driving in that game. So there's no doubt about that. Well, and and you know, part of it also who could have imagined how important Taysam Hill was. to the Saints game plan. I mean, that was, I don't think when we did tape the pod that we, did you know that the Hill was going to be out at that point? Thursday. I'm not positive if I knew that Hill was going to be out.

No. Because that, I mean, it completely changed the complexion of what that offense, you know, could do in terms of short yardage stuff and all the flexibility that Hill delivers to them. He's a crucial critical piece. And we saw it in Starkleaf on Sunday because the Saints got turned into very much a one-dimensional offense of short passes. They couldn't get Kamara off at all. He ended up with 85 rushing yards.

But, you know, it was all in short chunks. He never got free. They couldn't go down the field because Rubri's couldn't throw the ball down the field. And once Tampa, you know, turned. the the game with that turnover, the Cook turnover was the was the turning point of the game. It felt like the Saints didn't have a chance. I mean, they couldn't do anything. Well, yeah.

And part of the issue too was and then we can talk about this, you know, how the bucks match up with Green Bay. But I think that you've got the the Saints and Drew Breeze and his wife comes out after the season says he's been playing with a torn rotator cuff. In addition to like all his ribs being broken, like there's like eight other injuries that he's been playing through the. season. And then we also find out that Michael Thomas shouldn't even been out on the football field. He was just out there because he wanted to play in Drew Brees' final game, but he was completely unhealthy. And he needs offseason surgery. And so it's not ironic that he's not able to even provide a single catch for the team in that game. He's not able to separate, get off the line of scrimmage, do anything. So, you know, it does suck when you're trying to bet on some of these games

and you don't realize the full extent of the injuries. And the Saints have been a team. that's kind of done this often where they don't let you know exactly what's going on. And I think for competitive reasons as when you're playing, you do what they do. Like that, I would, if I'm coaching them, I would do the same exact thing. But when you're betting on them and you kind of think, okay, Drew Breeze's arms kind of not be that great, but you don't realize he's playing with a torn rotator cuff and all these other things. And you think that Michael Thomas, he's been practicing, he's up and he's not actually able to do

anything. Like, that does change the outcome of that game pretty dramatically because of those two things. but that's why it's called gambling, my friend. Indeed, indeed. Well, there is this curiosity, just a weird sort of turn of fate. Both of these games that we are going to see this Sunday were competed between these two teams in week six,

which is, I don't know, is that one third the sign of the devil? I'm trying to do some numerology here. I'm trying to read the stars and try and make sense out of it. But this Green Bay Tampa game, it was Tampa's best win of the entire season. They beat the crap out of Green Bay. It felt situational way back in week six. And I think over the course of the season, you know, it's kind of Green Bay as a very solid

team has really been validated. And Tampa has been a little bit. We've seen a bunch of these stats about the variability. I think it's like pro football focus or something. The schizophrenia of this, this Tampa team between their good performances and their bad performances and when to anticipate them. But the interesting thing with this game six,

do you think that there, I mean, this game in week six, is there any lessons we can point to that the Green Bay might have learned from getting their ass handed to them by Tampa way back when? No, Well, first of all, we have to look at the availability of players because that's the biggest driver to this. Obviously, there's going to be lessons learned from a coaching perspective, but the first element is who is up for these teams.

And in that game, both David Bactiari and Rick Wagner, two offensive linemen for the Packers were hurt during the game. If you go back and rewatch the game in the second half, I mean, Troy is talking about the fact that, like, Troy Aikman is talking about the fact that, you know, they don't have their linemen in there. And so that's one of the reasons that factored into them pulling Aaron Rogers as quickly as they did. Now, it was inevitable with such a big margin that they would want to go ahead and pull him. And it's also ironic that Matt Lefleur just struggles tremendously off of these byweek situations when he's on the road. He did it last year. He did it. He did it this year with getting his team like getting the right game plan dialed up. They started off well, but obviously he couldn't sustain that. So you don't have David Bacteari in this game. He's still out. But at least you know that, right? It's very difficult to adjust in game. We lost this guy. Now we lost that guy.

You know, whereas if you know and you played for weeks without him, you got a better sense of what you need to do. The other thing was they were still without Alan Lazard in that game. who was injured. And Devante Adams, I don't know, I looked at his game log the other day. I swear he had like 17 targets or something like that in week one, caught like 14 passes in week one of the season, something outrageous. And then he hurt himself week two. And he was out for a while targeting this game after their biweek to try to come back against the bucks.

He didn't quite look like he was ready to open it up all the way. He had a hamstring injury. He didn't look fully healthy to me. Not going to blame the loss on that, but he didn't look as healthy as he looks right now, obviously coming back from a hamstring injury. And then Robert Tonian also hurt himself in this game in Tampa earlier this season. So those are all like, we're talking like five starters for this team that were either injured, not there, or left the game early.

So I think we're going to get a different Green Bay Packers offense in this one. More than anything, though, what the Packers better have learned is how to protect protect Aaron Rogers. Aaron Rogers is very similar to Josh Allen so far this season. If you get pressure on the guy, his performance drops dramatically. They're very good when they're not pressured. You could blitz them. That's fine as long as he gets rid of the ball before the pressure actually gets to him. But if you are actually getting pressure on him, there's been situations where they've struggled. Supposedly, Matt LaFleur went back after this game, studied what was happening and they made some adjustments to their offensive line and blitz pick up and things

of that nature. And they've been dramatically better the rest of the way through. But that is the key adjustment that they must have made, they must, they needed, they need to make in order to have better success in this game is figure out a way to protect Aaron Rogers better. On the buck side of the football, I mean, there's no real, this is the tough part when you beat a team the first game. Like, what more would you want out of Tampa Bay? They had to, a lot of success in this game. Obviously, they didn't start off well, which is the story of their season. They were down 10 to nothing after the first quarter. And not unlike the Saints game, they had a lot of help from turnovers. They had two straight drives where there were

interceptions from Aaron Rogers. One was a pick six that was housed. The very next drive, the guy returns all the way to the three yard line before he was tackled. And the buck scored on their very first play of that possession. They just, Tom Brady just handed it off. And I think it was Ronald John just ran it right in the end. And boom, that's 14 points very quickly for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. So I don't think that there's a whole lot that they need to change, but there are some things that Green Bay needed to change. Well, I'm interested speaking of things need to change. One of your bugaboos with this Tampa Bay offense has been, and you know, every time Tampa plays, you're on the Twitter talking about this, you don't like their run miss. You don't like their run.

You don't like how they run the ball on first down and second down. I think they had a high run rate once again against the Saints. Do you think that they have any kind of adjustments lined up for this Green Bay defense? I do not think that they do. This is just who they are. And yes, like, you could say I'd be out of a job if all the coaches coached perfectly because then I wouldn't have anything really to contribute. But at that point, I would just be talking about how great,

guys are and that sort of thing. But when I'm seeing some obvious inefficiency, the frustration to me, some people might be like, Warren, why do you keep talking about the bucks and their run rates? They're winning games. Like, just leave them be. They're doing fine. The issue to me is, I just want the most efficient offense possible. I see elements of their game that they can improve. The reason, though, I say that they will continue in this game and why it may not come back to kick them in the ass here is because, number one, they're going up against a Packers team that struggles more in the run than did the Saints. The Green Bay Packers defense ranks 19th defending the run. The Saints were top five run defense. So you're probably going to have better opportunities

to make these runs success. We'll talk about in a little bit like where they could be passing the ball to have more efficiency. But yes, once again, last week, they go 58% runs on first down in the first three quarters and they won the game. So it's going to be rinse and repeat. They're going to keep doing the same thing. If they're winning, coaches don't want to change, right? Why would a coach that be, damn it, you know, we won this game by a nice margin, but I really didn't feel great about it. Like, that's the things that I would be advising from a self-scout perspective. I don't care the final outcome of games. I'm always looking for inefficiencies and helping improve them. That's one of the great things that like the Patriots did when they were 16 and 0.

they continue to tweak little things with their team every single week to improve themselves. You don't just look at the final score and say, yep, let's just rinse and repeat because we're winning games. But that is exactly what the Bucks are doing. That's what I fully expect them to do in this game. And, you know, we talked about how the Packers run defense isn't that great. Think about this house. Think about this. Last week, the Green Bay Packers play a quarterback named Jared Gough, who is from California, who is from California.

who has never played in the cold, except for like once or twice when he was terrible, who has a broken thumb or pins in his thumb on his throwing hand. If you're the Packers, are you not saying, we're going to stop the run and make you pass against us? You're saying you're going to have to beat us through the air. You are not beating us on the ground. And yet what happens in that game? In that game, the Packers allow 4.8 yards per carry in a 61, 67% success rate on first half

first down runs on all early down runs the entire game long they allow 5.4 yards per carry and a 71% success rate on the ground so we're talking about a team that as a they're without cooper cup they're with a cold weather quarterback who's got a broken finger that you don't you should not be respecting their past game at all you should be stopping the run game and yet they're having massive production and productivity on the ground so if i'm the bucks i'm looking at that and there is absolutely no chance. I'm saying, yeah, let's throw the ball a lot on early downs. Even though we might be better at doing that, they're going to rinse and repeat and do the same exact thing in this game. I do want to follow up quickly with you on the Jared Goff thing because I thought he looked

awesome. I mean, I was really, it was one of the top five Jared Goff performances in view of the circumstances. His accuracy was outstanding. His arm strength to the outside. was outstanding. He looked completely unaffected. Whatever the thumb was, he was unaffected by that. And he also seemed completely unaffected by the cold. I'm not going to ask you about the future of the Rams, but I'm interested in whether we learned anything about the Green Bay secondary

by way of the success that Gough had. Because I imagine Brady. Now, honestly, I think golf is stronger. his arm is stronger to the outside at the yard you know the yardage range that they were going down the field at then brady is on those outs but um brady's accuracy and especially the synergy he has with his receivers um is is unparalleled what anything about that packer's secondary that's uh indicates to you that they might be in some trouble going up against brady in the bucks i think so i mean in a minute like there's some things if we don't get to it in the

Q and A, I've got some stats on some of the things I think that the bucks can be doing to have more success in this game through the air. But you're absolutely right. Jared Gough on first down passes goes 10 of 12, averages 9.6 yards per attempt and a 75% success rate in the first half alone when he's like, maybe is he jittery? Is he a little bit nervous? He averages 15 yards per pass attempt on first downs with an 80% success rate. I mean, he was very successful, as you alluded. to. That's a great observation on your part. And I do think that that is going to lead to questions as to what you can do against this Green Bay Packers defense. If you really look back at this Green Bay Packers defense, take a look at through the quarterbacks and the offenses that

they've played. I mean, who is really what quarterbacks stand out to you like Tom Brady? What teams are more are going to challenge you through the air like them? I mean, the Tennessee Titans are the closest thing that can. to it, week 16, they played in the snowstorm. We'll talk about that momentarily. But, but they decided to run the ball a lot in that game, a very run heavy, predictable offense. Otherwise, you're talking about some of your last several games. You've got a couple games against the Chicago Bears. You got a game against the Philadelphia Eagles and a game against Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers. We're talking about quarterbacks that don't, that

pale in comparison and passing offenses that pale in comparison with weaponry to what the Green Bay to what the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have. So I do think that there are some matchups that should be avoided by Tampa Bay from a passing perspective and who they're targeting like Jair Alexander, maybe steer clear of the right side of the field. But I do think there's elements of this passing attack that can have a ton of success against this Green Bay Packers defense. Okay.

Well, I have like, you know, one or two more questions for you. And I want to make sure that some of the hard work that you've, done and building out your analytical model for this that we get to it. I want to talk about the snow because I do think that I'm going to play that under if indeed there's prominent snow in the forecast and notwithstanding Brady's comfort in the snow, I don't think that across the board Tampa personnel has a lot of experience playing in those kinds of conditions. conditions. Is there anything about that potential weather threat as you factor this in? As you size this game up, how are you factoring in that snow? It's fascinating because I love

watching snow games, but they definitely play a role in how you should be handicapping things. The current forecast to me right now looks like we're getting snow, but it's earlier in the day. And it may not even be snowing during the game. So it's to be determined right now, whether or not that happens. But let's presume that it is snowing because that's what you're asking about. Let's say if it's snowing, how would that affect the game? And obviously, to me, it benefits the Green Bay Packers a lot more than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The reason is not Tom Brady because, yes, Tom Brady has a lot of experience in the snow playing in New England.

It's the other players on the team. Plus, it's the philosophy, easy for me to say, the offense. So let's first talk about the other players. You've got a whole offense in Green Bay with these guys that have just played in a big time snow game a few weeks ago. And they've played, some of them have played in snow games for a while, whether it's a defensive lineman or if it's the offensive lineman, they know what cleats they need to wear. They know the field surface. They know how they can move and get around on the field if it is a little slick or a little that icy with any of the snow slash ice that sits on the field surface. So these guys have a big

time advantage. They've played in it recently. Whereas, yeah, Tom Brady's familiar, but the rest of his team is not. And the second element is when Tom Brady played in the snow in New England, that was the New England style of offense. And Tom Brady always seemed to have good games. And you know why he always seemed to have good games? Because they knew how to play in the snow. If you recall, This was a team that switched to a dropback quick passing game, very efficient short passes. The defense can't get the defensive line can't get off of the line to rush the quarterback. And therefore, it's more advantageous to throw the football because it's easier to do. And as long as you're not throwing the ball too far down the field, it's not as difficult to catch the ball.

And the DBs don't know what route combinations or what concepts you're trotting out there. So they're trying to react in the snow and possibly slid. or just an extra step behind because they have to start off a little bit more cautiously or slower, whereas the wide receiver knows exactly how he wants to get his release, where he wants to go on the field, when he wants to cut. And the DBs are always a kind of playing catch up and they have to catch up a little bit more when the weather is bad. You can't guess as much because you could be wrong. So there are a lot more problems playing defense in the snow, but that's the New England offense. this offense of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is heavy run rate on first down,

which you saw how well that worked for Derek Henry, right, in the snow game. Like, you just don't get quite the same level of push. I'm not saying they're not going to have any success running if it's snowing. I'm just saying it's not going to be as efficient when you're running the football as compared to when you're passing it. But secondly, this team throws deep at the highest rate of any offense in the NFL, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers do. those passes are much less likely to be completed in this type of situation if there is a bunch of snow falling in the receiver has to look up at the snow and the lights and the ball is traveling further down the field.

It's harder to cast those balls as compared to the shorter balls. I went back and looked at air yard stuff that I use when I'm consulting with teams on like a very specific level to try to understand how the Green Bay Packers were throwing the football in that week 16 game. they only threw on early downs two passes that traveled more than eight yards in the air down the field, two, the entire game. Everything for them was focused on this, whether it was like a bucket of like negative yards or the shorter passing yards up to about eight yards down the field. That's where everything was kind of condensed and confined into and they had a ton of success in doing that. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, so listen to some of these numbers, they are absolutely.

outstanding throwing the football in this short range, three to eight air yards down the field, this like kind of short range where it's not quite, we're trying to get a first down on this pass, nine to ten yards down the field. But we're not throwing it behind the line of scrimmage. It's this nice little comfortable. We should be able to complete a high rate of these. Since the buy week, the buck, the Buccaneers, 74% success rate plus point four for EPA on these types of passes.

Both of those are well above average. one of the tops in the NFL, they're actually number two best. Tampa Bay is inefficiency on these passes. They're the number one offense in the whole playoffs on these passes when they throw them here. But the difference is that the NFL average is targeting this three to eight air yard span across the field about 35% of the time on early downs. New England targeted at an above average rate in 2018, 2019 with Brady. The bucks throw in this area of the field at the second lowest rate of air.

any team in the NFL. So they're great at doing it, but they hardly ever do it. And I absolutely don't think that they would approach a snow game here saying, oh yeah, let's just change everything in with our passing attack to target this area a little bit more. What I do know is this. I think that Chris Godwin, who operates a lot in this area is going to get, is probably going to have a pretty good game. I'm expecting good things out of Chris Godwin in this game. He operates. He lives in this area a ton. the Packers really struggle, especially in the middle of the field and to the Offenses left, not at the far perimeters on either side. The Packers are really good to the offense's right.

And they're a little bit worse, but they're still better to the offenses left. But up in this middle of the field, that's where Godwin eats. The bucks are great throwing there. Packers stink defending it. But I just think that the overall philosophy of the offense is here. if it's snowing, you actually have to increase your ranking on the Packers a little bit more. Give them even more of an edge with snow falling if it is. As long as it's not just like light flurries, but if there's stuff on the field and more snow is falling,

definitely favors the offensive philosophy and the way that the offense is built of the Packers more than the bucks. Well, I think that's very helpful. and we will know come Sunday, whether there is snow in the forecast. Some of what you were describing had me go back to the box score to look at some of Tampa's weapons to see if we can project it all, how Tampa might deploy its formidable receiving core. And, you know, some of these numbers, Mike Evans had one catch for three yards. Antonio Brown had one catch for 10 yards. Gronk had one catch for 14 yards.

Those guys all need to feature more prominently in the Tampa game plan. If Tampa is going to match up with that the most potent offense or second most potent offense in the NFL, depending on your perspective, if you think the Chiefs is the most potent. What do you think they can do in terms of getting those guys into situations? is it perhaps this underutilized mid-range area that Godwin predominates? But like, you know, why can't Mike Evans catch balls in that same range? Mike Evans has had good success there. He also gets targeted a little bit deeper.

He's also the guy that works the sidelines a lot, particularly on the left side of the field a little bit more so than the right. It'll be interesting to see if AB goes. A.B has been the guy down the right sideline. So I anticipate Scotty Miller, who had a big catch down the right side of the field, his only catch the game for 29 yards last week against the Saints. That's where he would do most of his work. And so he would have a difficult matchup against Jair Alexander out there.

So I just kind of think that Godwin is their guy, but the Packers do struggle in the middle of the field. So I think some running back targets as well as some tight end targets could be very beneficial. One thing is for sure that Rob Grunkowski has done a little bit more work in the blocking game, whether, you know, the past pro game here. And so I don't know how much they're going to use him, let him go free in the, in the receiving game. But he would provide a nice matchup, mismatch as well for this Packers defense. And I think he could have a lot better success than he had last week.

He was targeted five times and only caught one ball. Well, they have, you know, Cameron Brate had four catches for 50 yards and Leonard Fournette had five catches for 44 yards against the Saints. So that fits what you're describing. in terms of running back receptions and tight end feature. And, you know, the fact that Grunk only had one catch of the five targets, maybe that's something that shakes loose. I want to move on to the next game in a second here, but I want to touch on something that's been a theme of yours over the course of this season.

And we've, you know, you've had some great observations about first half performance, how important is the first half of the game to each team. And sometimes we've translated that into some half, first half gambling opportunities by taking some overs or unders depending on anticipated first half performance. For these two teams, Tampa and Green Bay, Green Bay has been lights out in the first half. I just know it from the old eyeball test. Tampa feels like a little bit less so. But what are you seeing in terms of first half performance and how important it is to these two teams? Well, it's very important for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers more so than the Green Bay Packers because the Green Bay Packers are the team that you can bet on in the first half.

They're the more reliable team. They're the team that has the number one highest scoring offense in the first half this season. And they've hit like 14 plus points in 15 of their 17 games that they've played, at least 14 points in the first half. I mean, just bank on them being productive. Every game is a matchup and every time has some variance, whether you make or miss a field goal or you miss an extra point. But they have hit that 14 point mark in 15 of their 17 games.

And when Aaron Rogers plays at home, he's played at home in 72 games and he's only lost one when he's had a lead at halftime. He is the anti-Drew Breeze. He's not throwing interceptions late. he's not giving you great field position. This is just stuff that Aaron Rogers doesn't do, and he's good enough offensively with weapons around him such that they are able to keep building on leads

or doing enough offensively to convert third downs to ensure that they're the ones kneeling on the ball at the end of the game and winning that game. So for Tampa Bay, we talked about this to one of the first things you asked me about, the run rate. If Tampa Bay is getting success on the ground, like the Rams were,

last week, then they're going to move the ball here too and they could be in a decent position. But when you run the ball, if you get stopped and now all of a sudden you're in second and long and then you're in a predictable third and long passing situation and you're Tom Brady and you're putting the ball back to the Green Bay Packers here, that's going to be a big problem. You have to try to trade punches with the Packers. It's more than just like, oh, we survive that initial blow. like you have to you have to be right there on the scorecard with the green bay packers after that first round right like you can't you can't allow yourself to fall several rounds back on the scorecards at the beginning of this game and expect to come back it is something that the bucks have had success doing we saw them do it against the saints um but it's just very difficult on the road in green bay in their elements to do something like that and so if green bay gets a lead and Tampa is able to come back and and and and and make this game respectable or even win this game,

then they've earned their trip to play in the Super Bowl at home in Tampa. But they're really going to have to come out with a very aggressive, in my opinion, a very aggressive approach in the first half of this game. Because part of me looks at the two teams that they just played. And to make it to this spot in the NFC championship game, they beat Taylor Heineke and Drew Brees, who had massive injuries and maybe shouldn't even been playing.

I don't know, according to his one. wife at least. So like now you're going up against the number one passing attack like a quarterback who's probably going to win the MVP award playing in his climate, his home field conditions there. You better bring it and you better bring it at the start of this game. All right. Well, let let's move on to the next game after I ask you this question, which is I have team totals pulled up here. You mentioned, you know, just just put it in the book right away. Green Bay 14 points first half. Right now I can play. over 13 and a half on Green Bay at minus 130. Do you have a feeling about that one?

I do. Oh. Okay. I don't think it's a bad wager. Okay. There we go. Well, let's just leave it at that. I think that there's more to it. I think this might be something that, you know, for your paid subscribers or whatever. Maybe you have a perspective on this. I'm looking at Tampa Bay. Their number is 10 and a half. If you take the over on 10 and a half, it's only minus 105. That's not bad juice delay. Do you think that Tampa can score 11 or more points in the first half of this football game? It definitely seems reasonable, right? It seems like it's something that they can do. And they've been able to do that a lot so far this season, barring a disastrous game against the Atlanta Falcons in week 15. But, you know, they have been notoriously.

slow starters. And if you think that they maybe don't fare quite as well in the first quarter, but do a lot better in the second quarter, there's ways to attack the second quarter betting as well from a point total perspective. You can actually bet second quarter totals and things of that nature. So there's some other ways to go about it. It seems like it's within reach, especially if the wind is not whipping here. But a lot can be said if the game, if they are having some success on the ground, but not overwhelming success, how long are these drives that they're chewing up that clock in the first half? If Green Bay gets out to a lead, right? Tampa's going to say, okay, let's just live within ourselves right now. They're going to put it on. They're going to crank it up probably

in the second half. But in the first half, they're probably going to be it. Let's just still be us. Let's be who we are in this game. We're going to have success eventually. And they might still stick with the run a little bit. And if those runs just aren't as explosive enough, can't match some of the explosiveness that the Packers have, you can be looking at some long drives. And if those long drives don't end with touchdowns or points in some capacity, maybe you got, you get backed up at your own 10-yard line. And you could have a really nice, you know, 45-yard drive that made otherwise result in points, but now you're punting from like midfield or, you know, the opponent 45-yardland. You get into a fourth and nine and you don't want to go for that type of

situation. And now you're pinning Green Bay back. That's why there is a lot of variance betting first halves because over the course of the entire game, you're going to have more possessions. It's going to play a little bit truer to form, generally speaking. So it's a little bit more risky betting just first halves. But I have found success when I target certain elements of first half bets or first half totals. And it seems like they could be able to get that point total. But there's a lot to consider as well.

there's another football game on Sunday. The Kansas City Chiefs are hosting the Buffalo Bills. No team is hotter than the Buffalo Bills in the entire NFL. Kansas City in my book is still showing as minus three. You mentioned some books out, Vegas showing three and a half. No, not for the for the Green Bay game. Yes, three and a half.

Oh, I'm sorry. For this game, we are still looking at three. It's getting juicier and juicier. towards the Kansas City Chief's side, though. And I'm guessing that once Patrick Mahomes actually practices in full, which I'm expecting him to practice in full on Friday, if he does that, I think this line goes to three and a half and then potentially beyond three and a half.

I don't think it gets any higher than four. And I think you're going to see Bill's money come in at four. But if I'm a guy who wants to bet on the Buffalo Bills, I have zero interest in betting. it anytime soon. I'm sitting around waiting to see what happens with this number and where it goes from here because I think

Mahomes is 100% playing here but I'm sure we're going to talk about that in a moment. Well, and I just want to lay out this game I don't have a feel for on the side at that number. I mean, you know, it's why I concocted the sort of crazy

matrix of bets at the outset of this. If it wasn't for the Hale Murray that Buffalo encountered in Arizona, they would be on a 12-game win streak. They have been absolutely explosive in the passing attack, and yet that wind last week really diminished their ability to really open up the offense. Doesn't seem like weather is going to be a prominent factor in this game in Kansas City. The chiefs have an awful red zone defense. Their 32nd in red

zone defense opposing teams score on over 76% of their they score touchdowns on over 76% of their trips inside the 20. Josh Allen on the ground has been awesome. Eight of the bill's 16 rushing touchdowns have come from Josh Allen's two feet. We think the chiefs should be able to run the ball against the bills. They had tremendous success running the ball against the bills in week six when they uh uh,

Clyde Edwards and Hilaire had his best game of the season over 160 yards. The bill's defense still allowing over 4.6 yards per carry in the regular season. Only six teams gave up more yards on the ground per attempt. Kansas City is on, uh, what feels like a historical streak of not covering games. They're either 1 in 8 or 0 and 9, depending on the line that you may be using. But in those past nine games, they were favored by a touchdown or more. This is, you know, a very closely handicapped game. The other thing that I like, and this is why I put the bills in the teaser I put them in,

the Buffalo Bills are amazing. 17 and 1 on 6 point teasers this season. 17 and 1 if you play them in a six point teaser. I'm putting the bills in a six point teaser and you can't stop me, Sharpie. Let's talk about this football game. First, you said it. It's all about Mahomi. How's his head and equally important to me,

how's his foot? Because Mahomi was limping around on Sunday. Talk to me about what you're seeing out of Patrick. Look, I've been looking at the video from practice. I think his toe is 100%. I mean, I would, I don't have it. Sometimes I get inside information and I would, I would probably not tell you if I had it.

But in this game, I can tell you I don't have it. Okay. So I don't have any special information than you guys have. All I've done is watched intently at some of the practice videos that have been released. And if I've got a, and I'm just thinking logically, if I've got a quarterback and I legitimately, and we're talking only, about the toe here. I am legitimately concerned about his toe. I'm not sure what I'm going to get out of him. I know that I need him to be as close to 100% on Sunday. I'm not sticking him out there

jogging around a football field and doing all lot of work on a Wednesday. I'm sitting him out Wednesday and I'm sitting him out Thursday and I'm letting him get out there Friday. But we're doing as much rehab and rest of that toe as possible. The fact that he's out there running all around is massive to me, number one. Number two, think about it from the perspective of like, God, I really hope we can get him out there. I really hope he's close to 100%. What we're going to do is we're going to shoot it up.

We're going to shoot it up on game day. They're not shooting him up on a Wednesday to just practice. They're not shooting him up on a third. So the fact that he's on no pain, painkiller, most likely, no tort, or whatever, in that toe. And he's out there doing what he's doing. I think he's going to be fine. I believe he got his toe stepped on.

It wasn't some sort of a massive turf toe injury that would linger. I think it obviously hurt like hell. It impacted his ability to walk normally. But he still scrambled a couple of times without it. That's how he ended up getting hurt. And we could talk about that. But number one, I think his toe, the fact of the practice and the videos I saw lead me to believe that the toe is going to be close to 100%.

And that was actually my bigger concern. house than the head because I saw the head and I do agree that it's probably this this chokehold sensation with oxygen getting cut off for a split second and you see MMA fighters. I'm looking forward to the MMA fights this weekend. I like watching it. I don't know much about the sport, but when you see guys getting choked out, I mean, they're down on the the mat for a while and they're slow to resuscitate them and sit them up and is this whole long process of working them back to the stool and all this type of stuff. But here it was like a split second that he was tweaked and he was obviously woozy and

out of it. But he's jogging to the locker room probably 60 to 90 seconds later. I think he's very in very good shape from the head thing. Now, if he were to get hit in the head, direct shot to the head in this game, then maybe you're having like a compound type injury and maybe that's a problem. But in terms of just being able to play this game. I think the head's fine. I think the toe is fine.

I don't know if they're going to list him as a full participant to practice on Friday or a limited once again. But he's been limited on both the days earlier this week. He hasn't missed a single practice. And that's a great sign for his health. It's a great sign for all of us who want to watch the best take on the best and see Patrick Mahomes at very close to 100% on Sunday. And I think that's what we're going to get. Alleluia. I love it when you talk with all that positivity,

Sharpie. Do you want to hear some negativity though real quick? Well, we're going to get there. Go ahead. I have a whole slew of it, but let's hear what you got. I want to talk to you about this line and the way odds makers opened this line. Okay. I think they were totally stupid for what they did. And we took advantage of it. I thought it was ridiculous. Okay. If Patrick Mahomes is out, this is Bill's minus four, five, seven, somewhere in that range. If Patrick Mahomes is out. If Patrick Mahomes is up, and at 100%, it's chiefs minus three at worst, maybe minus three and a half, maybe minus four, somewhere in that range, okay? The line is never, I will repeat, never going to be the Buffalo Bills minus one to one and a half

to two. But the books said, well, we're going to price in that there's like a 50% chance that he's in and a 50% chance that he's out. So we're going to, we just really want to rush to put out a number on this game. Now, I'm sitting here, tail end of that game. As soon as that injury happened, as soon as he's out, we're looking at the second half of that game. I talked to the guys that I work with and I said, you know, the biggest thing that this is going

to impact, obviously we'll see if they end up winning this game is going to screw up them releasing a number for this game next week. They're not going to put out a line on the Chief's Bill's game next week if the Chiefs advance because we may not get a number until Wednesday when we actually see that he actually participates in practice. What do the books do? They want to hurry up and put out a number. Why? Why are you doing that? Everybody bets offshore anyways. You think people aren't going to bet on this game. People are going to bet on this game regardless, whether the line comes out Wednesday or it comes out on Sunday night. People are still going to bet. But everybody, the bookmakers,

in a rush to put out a number, put up a number that literally will never exist whether Mahomes is in or out. And it's a binomial situation. He either is playing or he's not playing. He either is playing. playing. And even if he's playing and he's not quite 100%, it's never going to be Buffalo minus one and a half. So we bet KC plus one and a half at a couple of the shops when we could. As soon as we saw them post that idiotic number, you have to bet KC plus that spread. And we knew that Patchmoims is probably playing in this game. And we knew that the line is going to be chiefs as a favorite. So I just thought that that whole process, whatever bookmakers are listening to this, thank you for posting a number at a line that would never actually.

exist and I'm glad that we were able to limit bed at multiple times. And please keep doing that. But I think it's stupid to do that in the future. Back in the day, they used to just wait to see if a quarterback is going to play or not, see if he practices or not. Here, you want to throw up a number that's some amalgamation of a couple of numbers with different percentage chance that they're going to play in probabilities. Then fine, put a number that will never actually exist and we can bet it.

I love it. So that's the quick aside, quick rant for the sophisticated betters that we're looking at this game in real time as it came onto the card Sunday afternoon, really, is the first opportunity to get the line out there. The rest of us like me, I just was sitting tight until midweek to see what was going to happen with Mahomes. And I missed out on all the opportunity because as it, as it, It moved quickly to Chiefs minus three by like what Monday. Oh, no, by later that evening. Later that evening that night. They took enough. Some books opened it at a pick, but others were opening it with the bills as favorites. And within, I don't know, I have to look at the line history, probably 30 minutes. It flipped.

And I got some calls from guys that I work privately for that were like, good job. They're like running around Atlantic City, right? Like I work with them. They're running around Atlantic City doing who knows what during the game. They're not even watching the game. They're placing bets and trying to go to different locations and stuff. And so we were able to get down on those games. But yes, it moved very quickly.

I mean, it's not the type of thing that you could even tell a whole lot of people about because how the line was different at different books. Like you want like somewhat of a consensus number to be able to share something like, I like this game, bet this. There wasn't a consensus. it wasn't open at a lot of shops yet, but some of the shops that were open just had a bad line. Well, we're going to talk about, you know,

speaking of moving very quickly, I want to talk a little bit about the Bill's offense because the last two weeks against the Colts and the Ravens, we haven't seen that explosive, expansive, passing offense, and for sure against the Ravens, a big part of that was the weather. But the Colts had a pretty good game plan, it seemed. Is there anything about that Bills, the dynamic bills passing offense over the last couple of weeks that is causing you any reason to doubt what they're going to be

capable of against the Chiefs this weekend? Well, before I answer that, let me ask you a question about this game in particular. because I know you like the Packers more than you like the Bucks. That's probably your favorite bet of the weekend. And we'll find out if that's changed after we discussed that game at all. But this game, it didn't seem like you had a very strong take. Should I read from that that you think this is going to be a close game that plays relatively true to what the point spread is?

That is my instinct on this. Now, I will say, just without hesitation or reservation, I, if there, Patrick Mahomes is healthy. I'm not betting against Patrick Mahomes. The only thing you'll get me to do with the bills if we get the all clear on Patrick Mahomes is play the bills in a teaser. And that's it. I just can't, it can't be a fourth quarter with six minutes left in the game and the chiefs get the ball down, whatever they're down, and they need to go score. I just can't be sitting there as a gambler watching Patrick Mahomes move right down the football field and look myself in the mirror and not say, you dummy. Why would you

bet against Patrick Mahomes? Now, that is an extremely square take. But that's the psychology, you know, that's going to inform how I, you know, structure any potential bets on this game. Look, I can't fault you for it. It's what we all think. We all probably believe that Patch Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL, even though Rogers has had a great year, may probably win the MVP. Mahomes is like the best talent that we have at that position and he's the defending Super Bowl champion and he knows what it takes to win an AFC championship game and how tough that is and he knows what it takes to go to the Super Bowl and win that. And like they are have their site set on repeat champions. Anything less than that's a massive disappointment. Whereas Josh Allen is

taking this big step up. The Buffalo Bills have taken a big step up to go on this. run that they have. And this season is going to be a success for them win or lose this game, which is not the same that you could say for the Kansas City Chiefs. So these are narratives that the media would spin. This is not what the teams in the locker rooms believe. This is not what the players believe. Players on the bills don't look at this game. Say, oh, well, yeah, I'm just going to play Xbox this afternoon because I'm so happy to just be in the AFC championship game. I think I've fulfilled my duty this year. Like, they're trying their ass off to win this game. And I think that they think that they absolutely can. But I see what you're saying. And it is difficult

to bet against Mahomes, especially at a short number like this, because it's rare that you get Patrick Mahomes at home and you're only laying three points. That really just doesn't happen very often whatsoever. So I'm not going to argue too much from that. But in terms of your question, the Buffalo Bills offense, I think we really need to look at the context of what they've been doing. you talk about how impactful the first half of the game against the Indianapolis Colts was where they're backed up inside their 15-yard line every single offensive drive that they had. They still drove the length of the field twice, but you can't call everything. It's going to take longer to score.

You're sealing on how many points you're going to be able to put up in a particular game is going to look differently. So if we're specifically focusing on the offensive side of the football, that is a detriment. Secondly, let's look at the Baltimore Ravens game. You hit the biggest indicator. The wind was ridiculous such that we already discussed. You couldn't even snap the ball and a shotgun snap accurately at times. And now you're talking about a team that is one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the NFL playing in those conditions.

It's a massive detriment. I mean, if you look at that game really and step back and look at it and you're like, we're going to have a shitload of wind. We're going to have kickers miss. four field goals in this game combined. We're going to have snaps that can't be snapped into shotgun. Who do you think that's going to hurt worse? I'm saying 10 out of 10 times, it's hurting the Buffalo Bills majorly.

They are the most pass-heavy team compared to what Baltimore wants to do. Baltimore has a great secondary with great cornerbacks. You got this wind that's going to wreak havoc with the Bills passing attack. And they've got Justin Tucker over there. We don't have Justin Tucker over here. I'm thinking that this is going to be a huge, detriment to Buffalo. And somehow, I know the pick six swings things a lot, and that puts up points on the scoreboard, but somehow they were still able to get past the Baltimore Ravens, despite the fact

that Baltimore completely pulled the old switcheroo on them house and decided we're going to take the most blitz heavy defense in the NFL that doesn't matter who we play, we're coming after you, and came out during the course of the week, wink Martindale. He pulled the wool over all of our eyes old wink. He said, He better get ready for pressure because we're going to be bringing it. And then they don't pressure him at all. They don't blitz him hardly at all in that game. They make the bills say, uh-oh, they're not coming.

They're sitting back. What are we going to do now? Who's actually coming on these blitzes? But they threw a big wrench into what the bills were expecting in addition to all the wind and all those other things. So there are some excuses, I think, to be made for the bills. But at the end of the day, it comes down to this. They just got finished playing two.

top 10 defenses to make it thus far. They played the Indianapolis Colts and the Baltimore Ravens, two teams that have top 10 defenses, two teams that have strength at the perimeter. You don't beat the Indianapolis Colts by throwing it to your wide receivers out wide. You're beating them on the inside over the head of some of those linebackers. The Baltimore Ravens have a couple of really good cornerbacks. And so there's different things you have to do to try to beat them. I think that the flow bills are going to be able to use a lot more of their basic offense in this game. If it's not super windy, I think they're going to be able to do a lot more of what we've seen over the course of the season. And the Kansas City Chiefs defense, while good, is not great.

And it's not nearly as intimidating as the two top 10 defenses that they've played. The one thing that I will say that will add a little bit of intrigue is simply what does Spags choose to do the defensive coordinator for the Kansas City Chiefs because he pulls out stop after stop. If you thought Wink was going to confuse people, Spags, especially in big games, I mean, you don't know what he's going to do. He might blitz a shitload. He might not. He'll play every single coverage under the sun against you as well. So you don't know what's going to actually come from that perspective. And that helps his defense being unpredictable. But I think we'll see Buffalo do a little bit more of what Buffalo does in this game.

They'll look a little bit more familiar to us a little bit. Well, you mentioned the Blitz subterfuge that the Ravens pulled off. The Chiefs in the week six matchup, the Monday night matchup between these two teams, they blitzed a ton. Do you think Spaggs is going to repeat that? I mean, they had pretty decent success with the Blitz. I do think that they probably will because they have some success in doing so. So they're not going to get away from it completely and just say, oh, we're going to just

really trick them by not doing it at all because it worked once against Josh Allen. And that was his worst game of the season in terms of I know it was raining. And so that's a consideration. If you're just looking at the box score, it was raining a lot in that game. And the other thing that I want to throw out there, this is just a sharp angle house to interject. But if you want to go back on Game Pass, if you have a subscription, to GamePass, which is like at NFL.com, and you can rewatch all of the games that you want to, and you can look at the coaches film and different angles, and you can choose, do I want to watch

the condensed version of this game? So I don't have to hear all the announcers between plays. And I'm just getting this game in 30 minutes. No, Steve Levy. No, Steve Levy. No, none of the other peripheral stuff. I just want to see the plays. I want to see what happened in this game. And you can watch and digest it in 30 minutes. I think that's great to do, except if you're watching a weather game, or if you're watching a game that might have had some injuries in it, because then you want to know, oh, the announcer talked about this guy who's sitting on the bench and did he try to get back in the game.

You can see guys getting subbed in and out. You can see more injury situations, and especially you can see the weather and the impact of the weather. They show different angles of the field in those games where it's the broadcast edition, not the condensed version. Anyways, highly recommend. And so if you're watching this week's six game, watch the full out version.

I know it's going to take you two and a half hours, two hours. I guess they cut out all the commercials. It's still significantly longer than watching the condensed version, but it's going to be worth it. In terms of the Blitz specifically, though, it worked. I think Spaggs is going to bring pressure. I don't know if he's going to bring it quite as much. The bills need to be prepared for it.

But one key addition that they have that's going to help them a lot is the right guard John Feliciano. John Feliciano was not there in the game earlier this season. He was actually on IR designated to return. He heard himself. He didn't play the beginning of the season. And the game that they played was week six. It was a Monday afternoon game. And he was not in the lineup.

He has been very good at watching film, understanding protections, understanding what the defense likes to do from different looks and helping Mitch Morse the center call out different protection schemes that they should be using. And the team has gotten much better since he's been inserted into the lineup at being able to pick up blitzes. And this is part of the reason that Josh Allen down the stretch of the season has just dominated when teams have blitzed him. So he was not there that first meeting. I think that his impact should help a little bit. But that's the biggest question here, right, is how does Josh Allen look in this game? And we know he's good when he's thrown from a clean pocket. We know that

he's good when he's just generally being blitz because he gets the ball out quickly. But how is he going, how often are the chiefs actually going to get pressure? That could that could decide this game, in my opinion. I want to ask you about in the lessons learned kind of theme of how we've been talking about these four teams and things that we observed from them last weekend. Cleveland was really resilient. I so admire Sifansky, the path at the Browns. are on. But you saw something about what the Browns did, you know, sort of game plan wise,

that you just know for sure the bills cannot afford to repeat this, this mistake. And it's a little bit under the surface here. What were you observing about what the Browns did against the chiefs they tried to do that the bills have to avoid in this week's game? In my opinion, the bills have to come out guns blazing and leave nothing on the field. They have to come out all the tricks in their bag. You're saving something for weeks for the Super Bowl. Don't. Don't save anything for the Super Bowl. This is your Super Bowl right here. And I felt like the biggest problem for the Cleveland Browns was they got conservative in two areas of the game. The first area was their depth of target and and where they were passing the football.

And the second was with the clock management and their pace of play. Baker throws the ball on first down nine times. Only one of those nine passes actually traveled more than seven yards down the field. House is crazy how short they were throwing the football. He averaged just three air yards per attempt on first downs over the entire game. In the first half, he throws the ball 17 times total. 11 of those 17 were within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage. On average, they were one yard behind the line of scrimmage, short of the line of scrimmage.

They were very inefficient passes. The times that he throws the ball beyond 5 yards downfield, we're not talking like 20, we're talking 5 yards. That's not very far. That's not a high bar to set. He completes 5 of 6, averages 15 yards per pass attempt with the 71% success rate. I mean, they had success when they threw the ball down the field. They just didn't. And they threw a lot to their running backs.

And I know Chub dropped a couple of balls that he should have caught. And there were some easy dunk-offs that they should have had. But it was just too conservative. And I love Stifansky. And I saw he won a coach of the year from the Pro Football Writers Association this week. And we need him to get that AP coaches award so we can cash our big futures ticket on Stifansky to win. So I'm lobbying for that still. But the second was the clock management.

The Cleveland Browns had two drives in this game, two. They were losing on the scoreboard in both of those drives. And they take three minutes and 51 seconds in one and four minutes and 12 seconds in the other. And you know how far they travel? We're talking about four minutes on average here, these two drives. One drive travels 12 yards and one drive travels 13 yards. And then they punt it back. You cannot make the mistake of thinking we're just playing.

playing keep away, we're just shortening the game and we're going to win this game against Patrick Mahomes. Now, ironically, what they decided to do when Chad Henney got in the game is they played even slower. They thought, look, let's not make any mistakes. Chad Henney's not scoring on us, probably. And so we'll have some better success by going even slower and more methodical, make sure we don't make any mistakes. But you actually should be playing faster at that point in time because you now have the better quarterback and the better offense. So playing quick, when you're the best team will benefit you more. You want to get the ball and score it as quickly as possible. Make the other team try an unsuccessful drive and have to give you the ball back with more

time in the game clock to now you can work it. And so I think they completely screwed up the situation when Mahomes left the game. But in general, they approach the game with far too conservative approach. So Buffalo, do what you do. You're a more downfield passing attack to begin with and you're a quicker-paced team to begin with. Stay aggressive. Do not change your stripes offensively because Patrick Mahomes is on the other side of the field. You have to stay aggressive with your offense and just play the chief's defense. Don't try to play the chief's offense. You're not going to be able to do that. Play the chief's defense. Call your most efficient stuff the entire game. Work the ball as best you can with your most efficient play calls. And don't

worry about how much time it takes. Don't focus on playing slow or how much time you're going to give them the ball back. Just try to score every single time with seven points on the scoreboard. Well, look, I'm interested having heard that recipe.

I agree with that recipe. I think Brian Dayball agrees with that recipe. It's something that the bills have been successful with over this great run that they've been on. Let's translate that into some first half opportunities.

We just did it in the Tampa Green Bay game. The numbers that I'm seeing right now, the Buffalo bills over 13 in the first half, if they deploy the recipe you are suggesting Warren Sharp, and I think that they very well are going to go that route, and we don't have any reason to think, as we sit here taping this Thursday night, that weather's going to play a big factor.

Over 13 is available on my book right now at dead even money. Plus 100, I can play the Buffalo Bills over 13. Do you have a perspective on that? Not as strong as I did on the Packers game. But I do think that Buffalo should be able to move the football here. My biggest question is simply how long? is it going to take in this first quarter for the Buffalo bills to make the adjustments that they typically have to make to maximize what they're trying to do? Brian Dable has been great at figuring out

what to do and then getting on to that next thing to do very quickly. So if the stuff on the first driver, the second drive isn't really working, he's great at making adjustments. The question is simply like how many things are they throwing at the Buffalo Bills? early that make it so that the adjustments that he wants to make, oh, we'll adjust to this. And now that third drive, the chiefs are doing something totally differently. Like, I don't know how many types of game plans. If I'm the Kansas City Chiefs, I'm coming out like each series with different stuff that I'm doing defensively so that it limits the ability of the bill's offense to make those

adjustments, which they're so good at making. But what I will say that relates to just the overall outcome of this game, you know, because I think a big part of this game, too, when you're looking at the first half especially, and we talked about it briefly when we're talking about the first game, the Bucks Packers game, it's not just what you can do against that defense. It's also what is that other offense doing against your defense. And we know that in the first meeting, Leslie Frazier, the defense corner for the bills, sat back a time. in like a cover two shell, played it, double what he played during the regular course of the season, and forced the chiefs or tempted them, more or less, to run the football. And they were gaining five, five and a half yards per carry in and moving the ball down the field. And Leslie Fraser kept letting him do that. And I think he thought, look, the less Patrick Mahomes is throwing the ball on us, the fewer yards they're going to gain. Even if they gain over 200 yards on the ground on us, that is not a death sentence.

And the craziest, so, so I'm going to pivot to talk about something bigger, but to your question, you know, what is the bills doing so that defensively, how much time is that chewing up if the chiefs decide to slowly buy into this and move the ball down the field at a much slower rate? How many possessions might the Buffalo Bills have? And especially if the first one or the second one doesn't go so well, then there are some questions. I do think it's important for them to perform well in this game. But I want to take you back to this first meeting, House for just one split second. If you look at that box score and all the great fans of the ringer who are listening to this, go look at that box score.

It looks like a whitewash. It looks like the Kansas City Chiefs just dominated the Buffalo Bills and yardage and first to all these different things. Keep in mind when you look at that box score or if you go back and watch the game, Buffalo leads three to nothing. Buffalo leads 10 to 7. There are 30 minutes in the first half of this game, and the Chiefs are leading in that first half for only 11.5 minutes out of the 30.

They get up at halftime, and they maintain that lead the rest of the way through. They're doing really well in the second half. They're having some successful drives. As great as the Kansas City Chiefs looked running the ball. And as efficient as Patrick Mahomes was when he threw it, I think at one point he was like 19 to 23 or something like that and had close to 200 yards versus a couple touchdowns. He did not have a bad game from that perspective at all, given the fact that he was playing in the rain.

And they had a great day run in the football, too. But think about this, if you will. They score and the Buffalo Bills get the ball back and march down the field in only two minutes and 33 seconds and score a touchdown. And suddenly, the Kansas City Chiefs have the ball with five minutes to play, a little over five minutes to play in their own territory. and they're leading the game in the fourth quarter by only six points. They get forced into a third and 12 at their own 33 yard line, and they're only up six points with four and a half minutes left to go. Most teams are going to struggle to convert a third and 12,

and they're punting the ball back, and now you're Buffalo with the ball, as terrible as they played the entire game, as good as Casey looked, that entire game, and you can have one drive to take a lead, at the end of this game and actually win it, that is the exact situation that Buffalo was in thanks to the way that they played defense in that game. It helped augment their shitty offense in that game by keeping the point total down for Kansas

City. They couldn't pull away. They couldn't pass away from the Buffalo Bills in that game. They were running it and keeping the bills in that game such that one score all of a sudden by the Buffalo Bills pulls it to a six point game late in the fourth quarter. Now, as it turns out, Kansas City converts that third and 12 because Mahomes is a freaking alien. And there was a blown coverage in Buffalo's defense. And they end up tacking on three more points.

They gained like a 40-yard play on that third and 12 and get into field goal range, kick a field goal. And they win by a nine-point margin. But the bottom line here is if I'm the Buffalo Bills and I'm thinking about what defensive strategy I want to take in this game, I know some people out there are analyzing and be like, oh, shit, you better not do the same thing you did the last time because Casey just ran all over, you guys, and the game wasn't close. And is that how you want to end it? And if I'm the Buffalo Bills, I'm saying, sign me up for the chance at being down just six points in the fourth quarter playing the worst my offense has played the entire year.

We are not going to play that bad again in this game. And we were in a one score game with the Kansas City Chief. So I don't necessarily love some of the first half total stuff here. but at the same time, I'm certainly not betting an under. It's a tough game, as you kind of alluded to, to try to figure out who is scoring points here and who's getting stops defensively if both of these offenses are clicking.

Yeah. So the one that I think I am going to play, again, is the over for the chiefs. It's 13 and a half, and I think it's available at minus 120. And again, that feels like, it's a square side. If I'm on the Packers minus 13 and a half in the first half, and I'm on the chiefs at minus 13 and a half in the first half, that feels like a square combo to me. But on the other hand, they're the two best offenses in the NFL. And, you know, I think, you know, no matter

what narrative ends up becoming the sort of pathway for the game, both those teams coming out and scoring 14 points in the first half has a certain, um, comfort to it. Do you want to try and talk me out of it? You're right. It does have the comfort. It's always great to bet on the team that is favored and it's always great to bet that there's going to be points scored. So it does seem extremely square. And you could always take the opposite position and poke holes in all of this stuff. What if the drives take too long? What if they come away with three points instead of a touchdown? What if their kicker like he did last game misses a freaking extra point and you get two touchdowns, but the idiot shanks an extra point.

You know, I literally think that how in games that I've bet over something, last week I took the chiefs first half team total over, which hit. But every single time that I am betting an over, I swear there's a missed extra point in that game. It's almost like I should parlay the over to the odds on somebody missing an extra point. And that would be a massive payday. you're an American hero. You just reminded me what I would be doing

betting that Kansas City Chiefs over especially is just begging to get butt fucked by Butker one more time. I have a history with Harrison Butcher and well I mean, you know, the field goal that he missed against the Titans

with Marcus Marriota threw himself a touchdown pass that missed field goal by Butker. I'll never forget it. In the annals of gambling history, why don't we just call it the anales of gambling history because that's where I ended up because of Buckers misfield. I could just see it that the chief score two touchdowns, but he misses an extra point. And the 13 is the number of the first half number as opposed to the 14 that it should

be. I'm staying away. Thank you. Thank you Warren. I'm not saying it's a bad bet. I'm just saying that like a missed extra point, which he missed in the last week's game is exactly what what could could play a factor there. So I can't tolerate it. I won't have it. But I think I think this game is as tough as you are kind of indicating. And I think it's going to be important that the Buffalo Bills get out to that quick start. You know, you're talking about their first half team total. But I shared some numbers on Aaron Rogers and what he does at home when he's leading at half. You can imagine the numbers on Patrick Mahomes are pretty compelling. And you would be right. When Patrick Mahomes has more than three days of rest, so he's not playing on a short Thursday game. And he has a lead at halftime. He is 30 and

oh in his career. 30 and oh. So he hasn't been doing it quite as long as Aaron Rogers. He's not, and this takes into account road games as well. Aaron Rogers, it was just for home games. But he's virtually unbeatable. Now, some of these games are close, right? We're not the last four. of which and all of those have come this season, the last four have been single score games. He hasn't covered a spread in all of these games, but it's just so difficult to actually come from behind to outright beat this guy.

You could come from behind like Cleveland was able to do or like the Saints were able to do in week 15 and put up points on the scoreboard. But he just has this way, like if you're getting too close, he turns it up to another gear and just keeps it going. And so that's my concern here. I would love to see the Buffalo Bills have some success in this game. And I think that they will.

But it's just, is Josh Allen ready to take that next step this season and knock off Patrick Mahomes, who I feel like is going to be very close to 100%. And that's the biggest question that I have is just can he mentally get up for it? Does he have the same type of ability to put his best stuff out there on the field? And then when it requires more, when the game situation requires something greater to bring out something even more that we didn't think he was going to be capable of, to complete that deep pass down the field that we didn't think he had in him. The pass like Mahomes is pulling out in the Super Bowl. Those are the types of plays that you are going to need to upset Patrick Mahomes

and by the way, you also can't afford to turn a football over. You can't afford to make mistakes. And that has sometimes caused some problems for Josh Allen as well, though he's played significantly better this season. Well, it feels like a lot to ask of Josh Allen. And you touched on this earlier. I mean, the position that the bills are in, they've already achieved an enormous success.

They have made that leap. And the other thing that factors into it for me, from the bill's perspective, this is their first road game. So this will be Josh Allen on the road as opposed to the comforts of home against the Colts and the Ravens. It's just, it feels like too much to ask. I am going to add to my dance card. I do like the idea of that bills over, over 13 in the first half for the bills to go along with over 13 and a half for the Packers in the first half. I'm not going to parlay them, although I might just take a quick look and see what that looks

like, but I'm probably not going to part lamb. But I do like the thesis of the bills coming out hot. And we know what the Packers do at home. So I'm adding both of those to the dance card. So let me ask you this to recap the dance card here. Green Bay, minus three. Did I talk you out of that or you like that one still? I'm playing it.

Okay. On it. Your teaser, the bucks to the bills, taking both up to nine. Oh, by the way, you mentioned if you tease the bills this season, you are, what, 16 and 1? I think you said. 17 and 1. 17 and 1. Okay.

I also looked, anytime the bills have been an underdog in their last 17 games, they've covered 75% of spreads, but they are also 17 and 0 in 6-point teasers. uh, 17. No, and this dates back to, uh, 2000 and 18, anytime they've been an underdog of any point value. They just have a good enough defense and a good enough offense. I'm not saying it's definitely going to happen here just because this happened 100% of times in the past, but, um, they've been very good because you can either get enough out of your offense to compensate or enough out of your defense to help. They're going to need it both. They're going to need offense and defense to get the cover here. Uh, but, but that is, uh, I, I can't argue. with that leg there. The buck's leg, I have a little bit more concerns there. Not that I don't think the bucks have a good shot of winning this game outright, even potentially. But I just feel like there is the potential if the Packers get up pretty big and then the

bucks get into this. We got that pass the ball late in this game. And then you got some pass rush. It's affecting Tom Brady. I don't know. There's the possibility that the game could be higher than 10 points. But on the surface, I can't argue with you too much. let's talk about the favorites money line parley then since i believe in green bay i think they're going to cover

the three um the the juices minus 175 and and now i you know we had a long conversation during the course of that kansas city buffalo um you know the analysis i i like kansas city i i want to gamble on Patrick Mahomes, why can't I play this favorites money line parley? The price is bad. It's Kansas City minus 170. So I'm only getting plus 150 on the parlay. Is that the reason not to play it? No, it's just for me, it's difficult because I shared some of those numbers with you before and the way that some of these games go and we can think that we've got this idea and maybe it ends up happening and your bank account is going to hope that it happens the way that we think like, well, yeah, these teams are, it's a tight line and these teams are all so good. And I just don't expect

anything out of the ordinary to happen here. And if it plays to form, which I think it will most likely, you're going to get a one score game here and the favorite will probably win and the dog will cover in a teaser. The reality is like shit happens in games. And if you have that much of a strong conviction on these favorites, then there's the chance that one, or both of them could end up winning by a pretty large margin because what ends up happening with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line is not that there's any need for the team that's leading the game to gain extra margin. There really isn't. But what ends up happening is the team that's down is like desperate as shit. And they're going for fourth downs on their own 15 yard line,

you know, and it could result in points for the other team if they don't get it, but they're down by two scores and there's no other choice in the fourth quarter. Like there's stuff that happens in these types of games that like with so much at stake here that creates a little bit more variance at times in the final score. Certainly I'm sitting here looking at the games. I'm saying the same as you like, yeah, I think this are both going to be close games. I don't necessarily think that that necessarily both favorites are winning the games, but it very well could happen and both dogs could cover the teasers. But there's just a lot that happens as well. So that's all I can say about that. Go with go with your gut on that one.

but I don't love it. Yeah, I understand. And, you know, maybe I'll toggle a little bit. There's no value in teasing Green Bay as a three and a half point favorite down to getting two and a half. You can always do an open teaser. You know, you can, most books will allow you to pick the first leg and then you pair it with the Super Bowl maybe. You know, you pick the first leg that you really like, if you really like the bills, if that's your favorite one, you stick that in there. and then you leave an open teaser.

Okay. It's always a possibility as well. You don't have to finish the teaser on Sunday afternoon. All right. Well, the last thing we talked about was the snowy weather under in the Green Bay, Tampa game under 51 and a half. I'll probably just play a little bit on that. Now tell me, we never really get into detail on that, but real quick,

what do you like about that in particular? Who do you think this, do you agree with my philosophy that the snow helps the Packers offense more here than it does the bucks. And we don't even know if it's going to snow, right? So you're probably going to wait till closer to kick off to decide whether or not you're going to play that. And if it does snow, you might be interested in playing it.

But share with me a little bit of your logic as to like, do you think it really impedes the bucks if it does snow or what do you like about this game going under if there's a bit of snow? It's the discomfort. We talked about this. It's a discomfort across the board for Tampa. that offense, their personnel, the only player with a proven track record in playing,

even in cold temperatures, is Brady. I mean, you know, all across the board for Tampa personnel-wise, and you talked about the little things, you know, the correct cleats to wear. And, you know, the, what the linemen can anticipate, you know, in protecting Brady, the Green Bay defensive front knows exactly what it's like to play under those circumstances. I just feel like they can create a little bit of an advantage and then enjoy it a little bit

of an advantage that Tampa might not be able to match up with. And that's the reason for it. That's the logic. So if that's your logic, I might suggest a slightly different tweak to your play here. If that really is what you believe and you, believe it could help Green Bay, then you don't want to bet the under on a game total where you actually think you could help Green Bay's offense a little bit here. If your handicap is you think it's going to hurt the Bucks offense, then perhaps just looking at a Bucks team total under would be the way to go

as opposed to the overall game under hearing you talk through your handicap unless you think the snow is going to definitely hinder the Packers offense as well. And so you want a little bit of exposure to that. No, I like what you're saying. So that would be, uh, the Tampa team total is 23 and a half. And you can play that at minus 110. Okay. All right.

Now see, it sounds scary, right? Because you're thinking to your, I know the way that you're probably thinking right now, House and you're thinking 24 points. Are you kidding me? That's what will beat me in this. And I see the bucks possibly able to score, uh, 20 points in the first half here. if the conditions aren't impeding them too much. But if you look at the math, 23 and a half plus 27 and a half, which is the Packers team

total, gets you to 51, which is close to what the game total is right now. So it is a fair number. It's not the wrong number for what the first half would be. But, you know, sometimes when you're thinking the 51 or 51 and a half sounds a lot better, oh, I can go under all of these points. but sometimes looking at the team totals may help you at least realize, okay, this is what I'm actually asking the bucks. They can't exceed this and I'm actually asking the Packers. They can't exceed that. It helps you piece together a little bit of the puzzles as to what

each team needs to do or can't get past for you to win the 51 and a half. And the last thing I'll add to that is, you know, 51 is somewhat a key number in totals. So if you're looking to bet the under on this for whatever reason, I'm not advocating it. I'm just helping you, with your direction if there is some snow. Going under a 51 and a half is not a bad thing to do. And I'll lastly just simply add that looking at my weather app right now, as we speak at the end of this podcast, that the weather on Sunday looks like the snow is coming in between 2 and 6 a.m.

Overnight, Sunday night into game day morning. So they're going to have a tarp on the field. it's less likely for there to actually be snow during the game. It's going to be cloudy. There's a small chance that there could be some snow. But most of the accumulating snow, which they're calling for around two to five inches, would come before the game kicks off. But we shall see.

There's still a couple days left. Well, I'm excited to see. And I, you know, we touched on some reasons to be skeptical of the Tampa Bay offense. I might play that under anyway, just related to the weather. under 23 and a half for the Tampa Bay offense. That's what I'm getting that. Anyway, lots of exciting storylines.

I think we hit on quite a bit, Brother Sharpe. That was another hour and 45 minutes. We just gave out to all the podcast people. How are you feeling? I'm going to go rest my voice for a couple of days and wake up Sunday and play some bets. No,

I'm feeling great. As you can tell, I'm super jacked about these games, spent days and days researching them. Happy to share some of this information with the great listeners and hope that everybody can figure out their own strategies to turn a profit on these games. I think there's not quite as many great betting opportunities. It's evenly matched games. The totals don't seem too far off. The sides don't seem too far off. But nevertheless,

hunt and peck and try to find some advantages maybe based on some of the information we shared here. And do not bet anything that's going to make you regret how great these games are. It's rare that we get championship games that have great quarterbacks and great teams like this in both the games. So make sure that at the end of the day, even if you end up losing a little bit of coin, that you still are enjoying watching what you see out on the football field. Yes, that's the best advice of them all. Great, great discussion with you. When we reconvene this time next week, we will be talking about the Super Bowl.

And that's pretty effing exciting. That'll be much shorter. We're going to do, I think, record still two. podcast, won next week and one the following week. So that our preview pod with more predictions and stuff is going to be the following week. But we're going to get into some X's and O's discussion on this pod and talk some early line moves. And a lot of exciting things are going to be happening very quickly in the betting market. Once those lines get posted after these games, finish conference championship Sunday, boom, Super Bowl line comes up. All the early money gets dumped into the market

Sunday night, Monday morning, presuming no QBs get. injured or anything like that. And so there's a lot that we're going to be able to capture, but it's probably going to be a much more concise discussion with you next Thursday, but I'm really looking forward to it. I'm looking forward to it as well. Happy ROI out there, everybody. Best of luck.