The Ringer NFL Show - Cowboys Anonymous vs. Their Coaches, and the NFL Analytics Invasion

Episode Date: October 21, 2020

Chris Vernon and Warren Sharp discuss the Dallas Cowboys players turning on their coaches anonymously, break down the takeover of analytics across the NFL, decide whether the Chicago Bears are legit, and more. Hosts: Chris Vernon and Warren Sharp Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. Today we're going to be talking about the Cowboys turning on their coaches as anonymous sources. Analytics in the NFL, the Dolphins decision to start TWA, the easiest and the hardest schedules coming up the rest of the season. All that and more on the NFL show coming up next. Today's episode of the Ringer NFL show on the Ringer podcast Network is brought to you by State Farm. Getting great car and home insurance from State Farm at surprisingly great rates. That's like drafting a playoffel. that becomes an all pro, the real deal.

State Farm agents provide personalized service so you can customize your insurance to fit your needs, like a GM putting together their very own roster. You need a team that supports you, and State Farm's got a great one. In addition to agents, the award-winning mobile app helps manage coverage, pay bills, file claims, and more. With a great price and even greater service,

State Farm goes from strength to strength. Choose insurance that always brings its A-game. When you want the real deal, like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. I'm Chris Vernon and joining me as he does every Wednesday is Warren Sharp. Hey, Warren. What is up, Chris?

All right, we got a ton of stuff to get to this week. Good stuff too. I'm excited for today. Let's start with, I hate to start with this Warren, my beloved Dallas Cowboys, who we talked about last week on the show. Maybe we're getting, you know, not enough credit from the linesmaker. going into the Arizona game. And it turns out they got too much credit from the Lionsmakers

going into the Arizona game. And that's not the big story coming out of Dallas. The big story was Jane Slater, who does a tremendous job covering the Cowboys for the NFL network, went on said outlet yesterday and said that in conversation she has had with Dallas Cowboys players, they have said that the coaches don't teach They don't adjust on the fly, and they just aren't good at their jobs.

Now, who knows who is saying this? Who knows if it is the unanimous opinion of the Dallas Cowboys, but it is certainly not the kind of conversation you want out there surrounding a football team. A football team that, by the way, is unbelievably in first place in their dreadful division. But what did you make of that report? Is it a worthwhile report in your mind? And when I say worthwhile, not mean somebody said it. Are they right?

We cannot know if they don't teach. But in terms of the charge that they do not adjust on the fly and they just aren't good at their jobs, what do you make of anonymous cowboys saying that to the NFL network? Well, I mean, it's certainly interesting. Look, you have to go back to what Mike McCarthy was like back in. Green Bay the last couple of years before he was let go. And was he carrying that team or was Aaron Rogers carrying that team? Why was Aaron Rogers performing the way that he was? Because I am completely convicted of the notion that quarterbacks are so completely and utterly tied to their

play caller. And, you know, Rogers' performance definitely was dropping off. Is that because Rogers can't play football anymore? He can't throw the ball down the field. It can't read defense. all that's failing him? Or was it because Mike McCarthy wasn't helping maximize Aaron Rogers' talent and getting the most out of that offense? So those questions still linger, and then they play into what's going on here in Dallas. Now, Dallas is kind of like the Eagles.

I mean, I tweeted about it during the game Monday night. You could take both of their offensive lines that were playing in the second half of their games this past week, week six. take both of their offensive lines, combine them together, and there's a total of two starters that were forecast to start out of 10. So these lines have been decimated with injuries. The defenses have had injuries. I mean, the Eagles can't trot out any wide receivers, any tight ends.

Not like everybody is down for them. The quarterback for Dallas is down. So there's a lot of things that are beyond the coach's control that these teams have just been ravaged by injuries. So you have to take that into consideration as well. But when players are saying that the coaches are not making adjustments, that is something that appears to be potentially the case. Whether or not they can coach or do their jobs at all, I can't really opine on that. They haven't been doing a good job. Let's say you can say that you can

coach, but you're actually not doing a good job of coaching. So I think that's maybe the case, not that they just can't coach, they don't know what they're doing at all. I think that maybe some of the schemes that they're using are a little bit too complex and they could be dialed back to get the guys playing with a little bit more energy, get the guys playing a little bit more instinctively reactionary in terms of the defense. We've seen other people come out, people that are far more intelligent than I am, who've studied the tape and have the opinion that it's both a execution slash effort issue as much as it is a schematic issue. So I don't know which one is more weighted there, but I think both are

issues. So in general, I think it's an issue about, it is an issue about coaching in general. And I don't know what the ultimate answer is, but I can tell you this, it's going to be hard to get the final answer here, Chris, this season with the players that are currently rostered. It's just hard. Okay. All right. I get it. And I have made my excuses about the offensive line. I mean, and it is such a tremendous shame when you're two, three years removed from, you know, Travis Frederick and Zach

Martin and Lyle Collins and Tyron Smith. I mean, this was as good offensive line as there was in the world. And now two years later, I don't even know any of the people that are in there. That being said, you know, it is the coach's job to get to maximize what you

do have. And there are players that I watch, that I sit there and say, why is that guy not awesome anymore, right? Why, why am I watching? What, what happened to Jalen Smith? What happened? I get it, Vanderas just came back. But what happened to DeMarcus Lawrence? What the F happened to Ezekiel Elliott? Like, what, what is going on? He has never been a guy that is uncareful with the ball. And he puts it on the deck all the time now. Michael Gallup, I mean, just dropping a wide open touchdown in the end zone. I mean, like, just weird stuff where it's like, it's like what you do have.

Even the good players you do have aren't performing like good players. And that's what's crazy to me. Like, what happened to these guys? And now you hear that and you kind of put it together. And it's hard not to think, geez, a wheeze, you know, I went through 10 years of bitching about Jason. Garrett every friggin' week and this is what I get. Yeah, well, I mean, no, I definitely hear you look. If you look at a team like the Philadelphia Eagles, right, and I know you don't like the Eagles,

but they're a team in your division and they're in a similar situation, O-line ravaged with injuries. The one good thing that you guys had going for you, and this is what I didn't really understand, like, let's just talk game plan here. Let's just talk game plan here with the way that you guys started that game. You have Andy Dalton, a quarterback. Now, I know he's, quote, unquote, your backup. And I know he's, quote, unquote, worse than DAC.

And those two things are both accurate. He is worse than DAC. He is your backup. But you know what? He isn't worse than most of the other backups in the NFL. And in fact, he's been a starting quarterback in the NFL for years and years. And a lot of teams would love to have him as their backup in case their quarterback goes out with an injury. And you are designing an offensive game playing.

that you still have all your receivers, right? Like, I know you don't have your Blake Jarwin, your number one tight end, but you have every single receiver. They're up and they're healthy and they're playing fine right now. Design a game plan to maximize the skill set that you have. Instead, their entire game plan was schemed around Zeke Elliott. At one point, I believe they had run 23 offensive plays in the game. And Zeke was the focus of over half of those plays.

between his runs and his targets. He had two fumbles. It was a completely inefficient way to game plan in offense with a quarterback like any Dalton who is still capable of throwing the ball down the field, design a game plan that's going to let him throw the ball on some early downs, get into rhythm, get comfortable. The Arizona Cardinal secondary, we'll see when they go up against the Seahawks. But I am not somebody who is like, oh my God, Arizona Cardinal Secretary. We got to run the ball a lot with Zeke because I'm so scared of these

guys. They are definitely beatable. They've played a very easy schedule of opposing passing offenses year to date. And they could have designed a better game plan. And they did not. And they got into a massive hole. And then that's all she wrote. And you're right. Some of these guys were not stepping up. Some of these guys were not performing. It did not look like the focus was there. And that is the coach's job, right? Like the coach's job is to give these guys the I mean, hell, Texas football, high school football is a hotbed. You have high school coaches all the time, coaching up rosters of players that aren't necessarily as talented as others, but stepping up onto a big stage.

This is Monday night football, a national televised game. I don't care if we don't have all of our best players here. The guys that are here have to do a great job of executing this game plan. All the world is watching you guys on this massive stage perform. And they did not live up to those expectations. It was like they didn't care to be there. Their head wasn't in the game. And that is the coach's job to get those guys ready.

And you usually get the, okay, DAC went down. Let's go win it for DAC. Let's prove that we're going to be okay without him. And you usually get, in many cases, some kind of a grand slam effort when you're down a guy. Because they try to rally around. They know they need to do it as a collective. And instead, they were just an absolute disgrace. Let's move on.

I'm tired of talking about them. I never want to talk about them again. Oh, and six against the spread, by the way. Oh, and six, Warren. Yeah, it's impossible. This ship will be right at some point. The books are not going to continue to let Dallas. But look, this week already, we've got the Dallas Cowboys.

They opened as a two and a half point favorite in Washington. And now that line has been bet down to a pick-em. I'm sure it has. if you bet on the Cowboys, you've lost your ass, trust me. All right, let's get to the video that's making the rounds, which is the pro football talk guys, Mike Floreo and Chris Sims, debating analytics departments in NFL front offices. And in addition to that,

this is all based around the Romeo Cronel decision that took place over the weekend in the Texans' Titans game. So for those that did not see it, At the end of the game, the Titans went up by seven points. They scored, I'm sorry, the Texans scored a late touchdown. Romeo Cronnell decides to go for two. This would be the dagger play that would put them up nine, then make the Titans in a position where they would have to score twice,

in effect, ending the game. Instead, they miss that two-point conversion, and that leads to the discussion of why didn't they just kick the extra point going up eight because if they would have been up eight, then it would not have enabled the Titans to come down the field, score, take the game to overtime, and then win the game in overtime. And so this decision then led to a broader discussion about analytics, its place in the NFL, and whether or not somebody like Romeo Cornell would have made that decision if it weren't for the advent of analytics departments in the NFL.

So first, let's just go through game theory in your mind. Because this is something that people are split on. You go up by seven with, what was it, a minute 20 left. Do you think that the team should kick the extra point or should the team go for two there? On a general basis. Look, all I can say is that this isn't even, like that decision is so far removed from what these guys were actually talking about. And I think this decision has been like probably at this point on Wednesday halfway through the week a little over discussed. So what I'll say is that

I don't really think that this is all that much analytics intensive. This is more game theory type discussion where you're making the decision that you would rather win the game on that play and that if the other team is able to score a touchdown, because that's the whole issue at play here. if the Titans are able to go back down the field and score a touchdown, because it's irrelevant if they can't. So forget the fact whether they can or they can't. You are assuming that they are able to score that touchdown, and you are trying to see if they're going to be, if you're going to allow them to just kick the extra point or not. Bottom line for me is that I would rather win the game in that situation, go for two.

If the Titans go back down the field, they're not going to go for two. These guys are talking about, oh, well, everything will flip on its head when the team that's trailing is going to go for two in that spot. Look, the reason that you're going to go for two yourselves, the Texans, would go for two, is because they're scared of the two-point play that the other team has. And Derek Henry's probably going to be able to score that two-point play. So they want to just be able to win the game. And that's the reason that they did it. But this isn't even, like, it's kind of irrelevant what I think in that situation. The more interesting perspective here is.

the other stuff that these guys were saying during the conversation. But what do you think? Did you, were you upset with their decision to try to go for two there? I think that it is, I think, and this is true of many different sports, and I also think this is true of the whole football guy, analytics guy discussion, that there is, there is room for both sides to be right about this. I don't think it is cut and dry in that particular situation. and it can't just be based upon, it can't just be results based.

I think it was fascinating. I was listening to Mike Lombardi and he was talking about the decision. And the reason this is instructive is because Lombardi was in a lot of front offices for many different years. And so this gives you a sense of what a guy at a front office thinks like. And his sense is if you are up, if you go up seven, that at that point, if I kick the extra point, from that point on, I need three things to go wrong in order for me to not win that game. I need to, A, give up a touchdown, B, give up a two-point conversion, and C, lose in overtime. If I kick the extra point, I only need two things to go wrong for me to not win.

And I know that sounds base level, but that is how a lot of guys view this. And I don't think that that is, I don't think that's ridiculous. I don't think it's ridiculous, right? For a guy to say, what are we doing here? Like, we're thinking too much on this. Kick the freaking extra point, go up by eight. You know, if they come down, they score, they get a two-point conversion, so be it.

We've had both things go wrong. Hopefully we're going to get a stop. That's what, I mean, hopefully my defense can go out there and win the game. All I can say is that, like, let's shift this to the other stuff that these guys are talking about. But all I can say is that if you have a situation where what I'm trying to say is this stuff has been going on for years, with or without an analytics department involved. I highly doubt that some analytics guy was in Romeo Cornell's head telling him exactly what to do

in this situation. We would have to ask him, I haven't heard any confirmation that he has said, well, some analytics guy told me that I should be going for two here. Coaches for years, well before they even invented analytics departments, were like, what the hell, let's go for two here. What the hell, let's just try to win the game here. Like, this has been going on for years. The cool thing about this is that it sparked this massive rant between these two guys on this podcast. And that's really the interesting thing that I want to start discussing. All right. Let me hear what you took away from it that either bothered you or you agreed with.

I'm going to imagine you agreed with nothing. Well, okay. So these guys, you're right. I didn't agree with very much here because I don't really know what the hell these guys were even talking about. These guys are acting as if the analytics gurus that are on these teams are, like hanging out with the owner. They're the owner's best friend.

They're eating every lunch with them. Then they're going out onto the practice field. They're telling the, they're kind of running the practices almost. And the coach is just a robotic yes man to what the analytics people are saying. And working with these guys and being involved in this process myself, I can tell you that that's not what's happening.

Yes, there are reports that are delivered to front offices that talk about analytics. But here's the thing that I have that I really wish was a bigger part of the discussion when it comes to analytics because I always call it the low-hanging fruit. Everybody when they start talking about analytics and football wants to simply talk about fourth-down decisions, go or kick, those types of things. And I always say, that's like the most basic level of analytics. Like the stuff that I'm doing for teams is not, and I know that there's other guys that are involved. in this that might be focusing more on that, right? And it is an important thing to help teams figure that out. But that's like basic type stuff. That influences the game, has a high

trigger rate in terms of like the results, what your decision here is and how much expected points you're adding based upon that decision. But you know what is more influential over the course of the game is what you're doing on first down and second down and those decisions. And I can tell you that a lot of the analytics people that are working on teams are completely involved with helping outline. And that's what it really is. It's outlining strategies that are going to work. And these guys here on this podcast are talking about, well, you know, they're like influencing these one or two plays and they're the ones controlling these types of situations. Meanwhile, these same guys are talking up what Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks are doing.

They're writing about it on their website. They're talking about it on their podcast. how great that is. They're talking up Josh Allen and how much he's improved and how well the bills are doing. Obviously, they lost a couple games, but in general, prior to how great the bills are doing this year. Do you know what those two teams are doing? Those two teams are incorporating more analytics into their game planning decision making and their processes. And that's why those teams are successful. It's because of analytics. It has nothing to do with like necessarily, oh, well, they look at this team, they're getting so much more aggressive on fourth down. League wide, that's happening. We already know that. But look at what those teams are doing on first and second down.

Look how much more of those teams are passing the ball. Look at what their strategies are on a week-to-week basis and how they're changing and evolving. It's because of the analytics that those teams are actually performing to the level that they are. So stop sitting here trying to shit on analytics people or in the analytics space about how we're trying to bully coaches into doing different things when the fact is that most teams are improving because they're incorporating more and more analytics into their daily processes. And that's why these teams have higher thresholds and are performing at a higher rate. So, I mean, I'm not sure what you think of that. I'm sure I'm going to think of some other things to say. All right. Here's what I'll say. I've covered intensively at least seven or

eight different NBA coaches. And along that way, all manner of front offices, including ones that hired, you know, big time analytics guys. And I have seen, I have seen fights between coaches and analytics departments. I've seen myself fight with coaches over analytics. And so this happened to, listen, it happened to baseball first and then it happened in basketball. And now it has made its way to football. And football is always going to be the most, the most difficult, right? And the most resentful about things. Number one, because it is the most team based. And I'm not talking about the play calling and the stuff that you're doing. I'm talking about some of the different numbers. It doesn't always hash out because so much of it is that I think what makes it

harder in football for there to be football coaches and analytics departments, as you say, get on the same page is because of so much noise that there can be within a football game, right? and that if your analytics guys don't understand what is supposed to happen in a said play, then they are automatically discounted. I'll give you an example. So in basketball, right, one of the seasons I sat next to Tashon Prince, who was one of the great defenders and part of the 2004 championship team for the Detroit Pistons. And I sat by him throughout that year.

And I was always a lineup data guy, a, you know, defensive rating, offensive rating guy. Like, I was deep into it, NBA-wise, right? And sitting with him and someone that sees the game completely different throughout a season and him pointing out who messed up a play or why a play was successful or whatever. It made me realize how little I knew just by looking at the numbers, right? Because, and I will also tell you this, Warren, for the first time in my life,

I'm coaching this year. My son didn't have a football coach this year. and I said I would do it. Now, it's just flagged football, right? But I'll give you an example. And I have gained a greater respect for coaches than ever before me having to do it. Because let's just say there was a play in our last game, right? And I call out the play and I've got a kid and let's say his name's Hank. And I tell Hank, I say, look, they've got Bradley, this other kid playing safety. You have got to drag all the way across the field because the kid's a ball hawk. And we are throwing away from him every single time, right? and we're throwing it to sigh up the sideline, our best receiver. So anyway, the play plays out. Yeah, my quarterback goes. I like how you, let me interrupt. I like in this story that you start off by saying like, let's say the name's Hank,

and then you're getting very, very specific with these other guys' names. Yes. Yes. So it is Hank. So I didn't want to call him out. He's fifth grader. It's not his fault. Okay.

But it's a good. Let's go, Hank. And these are fifth graders. So anyway. So you're going to sigh. Yes, we're going to sigh up the sideline, right? So my quarterback drops back, right? He rolls out to the right.

He knows he's throwing a side down the sideline. He throws it to throw it on the sideline. Who picks it off? Bradley. Now, what the F is Bradley even doing over there? Well, he's over there because Hank went the opposite direction from where he was supposed to go, right? And so you can sit there and you can say,

what the hell are you doing? Why are you throwing at this guy? But if you didn't have the understanding that I, what I drew up in that huddle and then the way it played out, that's when I take the step back and I say, all right, this is why football coaches, when they go in the meeting room and they are listening to the guy, give out all the numbers. And the guy that gives out all the numbers can't explain why a play went wrong or why a play went right, that Romeo Cornell says, hey, I know they're telling me I should go for two here, but I really don't want to because my right

tackle's gotten blown up the last five plays, and he recognizes that. But the numbers say something different. All I'm saying is that once you are in the middle of it, I now have a better awareness of why there is this break. And when I say back to the basketball things, I have covered coaches that are simpatico with analytics departments and get those reports and take those reports to heart, and then we'll adjust what they are doing. Line up wise, data-wise, substitution-wise, et cetera,

based upon what those analytics told them. I have seen others that say, this is nonsense. It's nonsense, right? Like, I mean, you don't even know, you don't even know what our plays are supposed to be. You don't even know what player messes up a play. You know, I'm sitting there coaching these guys. I know where the play was supposed to go.

I know what was supposed to happen on this play. and I know why we fail. And your number can tell me whatever your number wants to tell me, but I'm sitting there and I know what their coach to do and what these guys are doing. And this guy F's up all the time. I don't care what his P.E.R is or his offensive and defensive rating and what our lineup statistics are.

I know what's supposed to happen and what is not happening. And now I'm going to defend them on the going out to lunch thing. Warren, you do your analytics and your report. from afar. There are guys in those front offices that do have lunch with the owner. I will tell you, that is true. And they heard that from somebody. You know what I mean? I'm not saying none of that is possible once in a while. I'm not saying that that doesn't happen. I'm not saying that the analytics people don't hold meetings with the owner once a week. Like, first of all, let me go back to your, I got a couple points on this. Let me go back to your statement about the coaches that say that

that analytics is nonsense. Okay, I mean, just so people understand out there, analytics is just the processing of information into an easy-to-digest manner so that you can look at it. You can analyze more data in an easy period of time and make an educated decision based upon the data. That's all it is. It's not some sort of a magic black box that we don't know what's going on there. Let me take a quick 20-second time out. All those coaches that said they were nonsense are no longer coached. Okay. Let me just make that.

So you're not supporting those guys. Okay. No, no, no. We don't have to discuss the people who just want to make off-the-cuff decisions not based on data and just go with their gut, right? And we're also not discussing the fact that coaches can't go with their gut, right? Like on certain plays where guys got injured and you have to substitute or this other team has this lineup out on the football field. And so now we're going to make this adjustment off of. what we were planning on doing.

All of those things come down to what the coach needs to do. It's his responsibility. Ultimately, he has to answer to that. But I think my issue, and it would be instructive if everybody listening was able to go back and hear the podcast and the discussion from Florio and Sims on this notion. But they're kind of talking about the fact that, oh, my God, what if the analytics, can you write a formula to show that,

you're playing the Baltimore Ravens and that they have a defensive line with 300 pounders out there. And actually, actually, yes, you can make adjustments for it. What do you think that the people in the analytics department are doing? You think that people in the analytics department are just like throwing up numbers based on not even looking at like one team versus the other team. We're just looking at, you know, well, in the NFL, if you're, if you're on first and 10, this is what you should do every time. No, you're game planning for an opponent. you're helping a coach figure out what plays that he should be calling based upon who is up for his roster and who is healthy and who he's playing against and what they're doing and their health.

And that's why it's a lot of work. I mean, you're not just like coming up with league-wide numbers. So that's not what is happening here. And it's just funny to think that to boil it down to it's this black and white issue and analytics are only involved in these high leverage situations. No, analytics is involved in everything. And it's absolutely true. I will say this.

It is absolutely true that analytics are in some staffs, in some departments, more of a well-thought-out, more incorporated through the fabric of this team now, what the coaches want to do. And ultimately, there may be some people on that coaching, staff that are a little bit more reluctant or hesitant to do what some data guy is suggesting that they do in a certain situation. And that's why the data guy is just the data guy and the

coach is the coach. And so the data guy helps provide the coach with the tools and the information to make an educated decision. And then the coach does what he thinks. And then ultimately in a good process and this should be with any job, not just coaching, there should be a review of what are we doing? Did it work? Could it have gone better? Why did we make these decisions? How can we improve? These guys on the radio thing are acting as if like that never happens in any other walk of work and line of work and nobody ever has these meetings and these discussions about why they did things. No, this happens in literally every single successful business and enterprise, you're analyzing the decisions that you made, and could you make them differently

next time to get a better result? I mean, this is basic. And this is where I would tell you that the best organizations are the ones that do get on the same page. They hire analytics departments, and there's not this level of resent and smugness from, you know, the, you know, they want to frame it as this 25-year-old wonderkin from, from Harvard or something. And he's telling us, and Romeo Cornell, who's a hundred years old, coach on the sideline, how to coach football, right? Like, they're the ones, the coaches that use this to their benefit and realize that the analytics department is working in concert with them and not against them to make this a better team, those are the ones that will not only survive. They are also the ones that will thrive. In the end, this is what I will tell you.

The moral of this story is you can either get down with this a smarter way to play, a smarter way to play call, a smarter way to make decisions, or you will be phased out. We have had it happen all over the NBA in front offices. That's just what's going to happen and with coaching decisions. And that's just what's going to happen. The guys that are going to be reluctant and they're going to say, eff those nerds and I don't care about your numbers. and you don't understand football, right? Because what happens is the break. The break is you have one side that says,

you don't understand the numbers, and this dude would be so much better at coaching if he just looked at the frigging numbers, which he throws in the trash, and the other side that says, why am I, I don't need these numbers. These guys don't know anything about basketball. They don't know anything about football.

They don't know anything about coaching these teams. They don't know anything about the personalities or the flow of the game or who's getting killed, you know, and why something took place. They don't understand the why. They're just looking at the numbers, not why that number is that number.

And you get this break. It is old school jocks versus nerds. And the nerds win. They won in baseball. They won in basketball. And they will win in football. And the football guys better get down with it. Because these are the same discussions that were being,

that took place years ago in the other sports. Right. And well, I could tell you, look, the bottom line is most of the people that are, and this is the last thing I'll say on this and we can move on because there's other things to talk about this week. But what I will say is this, the guys that are the talking heads in the media right now, especially ex-coaches who are doing this and like talking to some of these other guys and their help formulating their opinions on this type of stuff, these are guys

who never had analytics departments work with them, like especially as expansive analytics departments as exist right now. Those are coaches that are now talking heads in the media that don't really understand, I think, what is really happening on a detailed level behind the scenes. But the end goal here for everybody involved, from the owner on down, is the owner wants his team to win games. And I can assure you that the coach wants to win games and the analytics department wants to win games. And everybody is going to be happier at the end of the day when you win a game than that shitty sinking feeling when you lose a game. And so there is, I don't care if the analytics guys share some information that the coach then doesn't take, says, you know, thinks spur of the moment.

Hey, I know we discussed about this like earlier in this week that we might. do this here, we might call it, but this is really working. So I'm going to try to keep doing these other types of things off of this. And it has success and they end up winning a game. You know what the analytics people aren't saying? They're not coming back to the meeting and meeting room with the owner saying, F this coach, he's so terrible. He did something that worked well in the game, but it wasn't what we told him to do. Like, absolutely not. The goal is to win the game. The end goal is to win the game. So if we're making decisions that are helping us win games, then we want to continue to make, as educated decisions, learn from what we did, and continue

to make those decisions to win games. Add potential expected value to every single play call where possible. And I think at the end of the day, the goal is to win. Incorporate intelligent decision-making throughout the course of the week as you're trying to game plan and then try to make the best decisions during a game that give you the best opportunity to win and let the chips fall where they may, have the coach make his gut decision where he needs to, and we can all go to sleep at night knowing we did everything possible to put ourselves in the best position to win this game. Well, and I think it's best summed up where the reason that a rant like that comes out is because you are hearing from football guys that view analytics and

analytics departments as enemies rather than assets, right? That they are not their, they're not their friend. They're not on the same page. They are the guy telling the owner that you're effing up. They think that we're making, they think that, I'm not going to say we because there's a lot of other smart people that are doing this. They think that the analytics people are making the game more robotic and less interesting.

When in reality, incorporating more analytics into the game. is making it more exciting. It's increasing the output of these offenses. It's unlocking potential. And it's putting a more watchable, interesting, fun product out on the football field that is actually going to benefit these guys and their jobs because they're going to make more money long-term

with a better product out on the field that they're able to cover. So in a roundabout way, using analytics is actually going to help the guys who are slamming their use in the media. All right, Warren, we'll get right back to it. Today's episode of The Ringer NFL show brought to you by Fanduel. I've got to tell you about a favorite bet concept this season. You can play same game parlayes on Fanduals sportsbook,

and it's the most fun you can ever have betting. They're pretty simple. All you have to do is combine multiple bets from one game into a single parlay. This way, the payouts are even bigger when you win. What's cool, too, is Fandual will refund first same game parlays that you lose on any NFL game each week up to $10. That means you can bet a different parlay risk-free every NFL week all season long. All right.

So looking at the games coming up this weekend, the Steelers are playing the Titans. That's going to be the biggest game of the weekend. I think the Titans defense is soft. And I do think you just saw what Deshawn Watson and Will Fuller did against them. I think this week we're taking the over on the Ben Rathosberger yards, and we're going to take the over on Chase Claypool, who has super emerged the last couple of weeks.

So we're taking the over on Rafflesberger yards. We're taking the over on Chase Claypool yards. Now note, risk-free bets apply to the NFL and World Series, not to the Major League Baseball playoffs. If you like my picks, go ahead and bet them. With your first NFL or World Series single game parlay of the week, you'll get $10 back if we don't win. Now, there is a catch.

FanDuel is the only sportsbook app that has these same game parlays. So if you don't already have a FanDuel account, just use the promo code Sharp. When you sign up so they'll know we sent you. That's Van Duel Sportsbook. promo code shark. Disclamer, 21 plus and present in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, and Iowa. Refund issued as non-wetorable site credit that expires in seven days.

Max refund, $10. Terms apply. Gambling problem. Call 1-800 gambler in West Virginia. Visit www.1-800 gambler.net. In Indiana, call 1-800-gambler.net. nine with it in Colorado, call 1-800-5-2-2-4700. In Iowa, call 1-800-bets-off.

All right, let's move on. The bears are 5-1, Warren, and clearly in a great spot at a run, at being a playoff team. Do 5-1s make it almost all the time? It feels like a 5-1 team would make it almost all the time. And how real are the Bears as an NFC contender? because I would say my perception is that people certainly don't have as high opinion of them as they do the Seattle's, Tampa's, Packers of the world.

And part of that's because of who the quarterback is, right? It's Nick Foles instead of Russell Wilson, Tom Brady or Aaron Rogers. Where? So, two-fold. Are the Bears in pole position to make the playoffs and be a playoff team? And do you think that they are or should be considered on par with other? NFC contenders? I don't know that I would, first of all, they are on par to make the playoffs.

I mean, they are in position to make the playoffs. I think teams that are five and one, this year the percentage might be off slightly, but it's between like 87 and 90 percent. I believe somewhere in that neighborhood that a five and a team that starts five and one would get into the playoffs. It's just below the 90 percent threshold and above like 85 percent. The Bears do have the seventh toughest schedule. the rest of the way, although they haven't played, they've played a fairly difficult schedule to date.

I mean, they haven't played like a terrible schedule. It's not like they're playing all these terrible teams from the NFC East. They've only played the giants from the NFC East. They've played a number of other teams that are doing well in their division like the Colts and the bucks. So, but this is a team that's a very, they got to have things to go right for them. They can't afford to beat themselves. They don't have any. margin for error. Every single one of their wins has been by seven points or less. This is not a team that blows opponents out that gets big leads, gains margin. They're averaging only 21 points per game themselves. That's even with Nick Foles as the starter the last three weeks. So this is not, I mean,

in those games, they've scored 11, 20, and 23 points. So this is not a team that's really going to blow the doors off of anybody on a typical week, I guess, unless there may be potentially a terrible team. But if you look the rest of the way, they have the seventh toughest schedule going through the rest of the season. It is not going to be easy for them. They play a very difficult Monday night game in L.A. You have to look at the body clock issue of a team playing in prime time on the West Coast and how those teams perform in the second half of games that adds to the scheduled difficulty for them in this spot. I just think it's a tough schedule. They are in good position. They have to hold serve the rest of the way.

to be able to ensure that they'll get there. But this is definitely above average team. I mean, this is a fine team. I would say that they're a good team. They're a soundly built defensive team. But whether or not they can compete with offenses that really are dialed in and are going to be able to stretch them, that's going to change on a week-to-week basis.

They did a really good job against the Bucks on a Thursday home game with the Bucks traveling on a short week. but without healthy wide receiving core. But it'll be interesting the rest of the way for those guys. All right. Well, I'm glad you brought up schedule because let's bounce to that. You talked about the bear's schedule, what they've had and what they have going forward. Let's talk about strength of schedule and the changes that have happened weeks one through six versus the rest of the season.

Who does it really lighten up for? Who does it get much more difficult for? what is your analysis on the way the schedule plays out from here on now? So one of the interesting things I love discussing the big changes, the teams that have had it really easy and then get much harder. The L.A. Rams have played the number one easiest schedule of opposing teams so far this season. And they're about to play the number three toughest schedule of opposing teams the rest of the way.

They've played, as we know, the entirety of the NFC. East and they lost to the only two teams that are outside the NFC East. We talked about it on the show with House on Friday about the 49ers and I didn't like the Rams in that spot on last week on Sunday night football. They lost that game. They lost to the bills. Those are the only two teams that they played that weren't in the NFC East. They're four and oh against the NFC East.

The rest of the way, they've got a very tough road. I mean, we just talked about the Bears. and then they're going to be applying teams, including the Seahawks twice, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and they got games against the Patriots later on, the Cardinals, a couple of games, and the 49ers another time. So their schedule is very difficult. You could say, isn't the entirety of the NFC West going to have tough schedules in the future because they all have to play each other?

And we know the records of these teams. I mean, nobody is below 500. The 49ers are probably better than their three-and-three record indicates because of all the injuries they've sustained once they get rolling, they're going to be a winning record team, and you've got the Cardinals of 4 and 2, the Rams of 4 and 2, and the Seahawks are undefeated. The answer to that is actually no. The answer to that is no, not every team in the NFC West is going to have a ridiculously difficult schedule. Ironically, the team that's the best in that conference right now from a record perspective

and an efficiency perspective is going to play one of the easiest schedules. In fact, the number two easiest schedule the rest of the way. And why would that be? Well, it's because they've yet to play all these teams from the NFC East. They still have three games against the NFC East games against Washington, the Giants, and the Eagles, plus they have the Jets. So that's Seattle. That's Seattle. Look, if they got the second easiest schedule, the rest of the way, Warren, they have got to be the prohibited favorite in the NFC, I would think.

They, in my opinion, they are because I don't think the bears are going to sustain a, five and one record. The Packers are probably still, in my opinion, the best team in that division, but they've got issues defensively, whereas the Bears have a little bit of issues offensively. The Seahawks are interesting because apart from the bills who are like a middling opponent that they're going to play, the rest of the way, they're either playing like teams in their own division that are good. And we're talking about two games that are good from a record perspective and good from an efficiency perspective. We're talking about two games against. every single person, every single team in that division, right?

You still got two games against the Rams, two games against the 49ers, two games against the Cardinals. And then you have a game against the bills and you have all these teams that are terrible in the NFC East plus the AFC East with the Jets. So they definitely, if they can do what they need to do in the division, even if it's just win their home games. If you just split, if you just split those games versus their division, that you're at eight wins.

And then if you win, right, three of the other four. At least. Yeah, you sweep those games against, you're up to 12 wins. But the key for them is, and this is the key for a lot of teams in both sides of the leisure here in both conferences, the number one seed in your conference must be the priority. There cannot be on any single week taking your foot off the gas pedal because only one team gets a buy and that race is going to be extremely, extremely competitive this year. Interesting. Who does it get easier for outside of Seattle? Who are the other teams that if you are a fan of those teams, you could at least have hoped that the season's going to get better than it has been so far?

Yeah, so the Philadelphia Eagles, they're one of the teams that move up. They've played teams that on average rank 14th, and they're going to go up to teams that on average are going to rank 20th in the league. So their schedule is going to get a lot easier. Another schedule that's going to get easier is a team like the Cleveland. them Browns. Your Dallas Cowboys gets a little bit easier, even though you've played a average to below average schedule. You can bleep that part out if we don't want to talk about them any longer. You're talking about a team like the Texans are going to get easier, a team like the Vikings

are going to get easier. You know, the Texans, we talked about those guys having the number one toughest schedule entering the season. We forecast that they were going to struggle. Las Vegas forecast that they were going to struggle. That's why they said their win total only at seven and a half wins. But if you look at this team, I mean, they've played a brutal schedule so far this year. It doesn't get any easier against the Packers this week, angry Packers team off of that difficult loss. But you look after their buy, which they have a buy that Houston Texans do after this Packers game. They get the Jaguars. They get the Cleveland Browns. They get the New England Patriots. They get the Detroit Lions.

four straight weeks, plus a game against the Cincinnati Bengals. So all those teams rank below average in efficiency at this point in the season. You know, the toughest opponents left that they've got are the divisional opponents. They get two games against the Colts and a game against the Titans. So in general, their schedule does get easier from having to play like the Chiefs and the Steelers and one game against the Titans and the Ravens. Like their schedule was ridiculous. It is going to be much easier for them moving forward.

But, you know, they're still not a great team. they don't have a head coach. Their defense is very problematic. I'm not forecasting that they all of a sudden come back and race to the postseason here, but their schedule will get a little bit easier. Let's not got a couple of these other topics before we get out of here today. Tua is going to get to start in Miami. It was a really cool story to see him get in the game, get a monster ovation at the end of the

Dolphins win on Sunday. And then there was that scene after the game where he is over 300 days removed. from his season ending at Alabama and you could see him just sitting in the middle of the field, soaking it all in. Well, now, a day later on Monday, he finds out he is going to be the starter

for the Miami Dolphins. Now, they have a buy week this week and then two is going to start. Look, they've been good compared to, I think, what a lot of people thought they were going to be. Fitzpatrick's been good and they're a 500 team and

they're second in this division. So what do you make about this choice by the dolphins to go ahead and put Tua in there? He'll start against the Rams for his first game. I don't know if I mean coming off a massive injury of Aaron Donald's the first guy you want to see. But it's either here nor there. He's getting to start an NFL football game. We're going to get to see another rookie, which is always fun. But just this decision as a whole because Fitzpatrick, he's been good for them.

Yeah, he has. No, I mean, there's no doubt. Fitzpatrick, I was posting some numbers on him yesterday on Twitter about how great of a backup quarterback he has been. You can't really ask for anything better than what he's delivered in terms of his ability to keep you in games and win his underdogs, which is certainly what the dolphins have been, his ability to cover spreads, which is what we like if you're betting on these teams. But since we're leaving Josh Rosen in week six of last year, he went 12 and 5 ATES as a starting. quarterback for the Dolphins at 71% cover rate, which is definitely building your bankroll if you're betting on them. And on average, his team was seven and a half point underdogs in these games. And they won seven outright, seven out of those games outright, including four of his last seven starts. So he's done a great job for this team.

And they ruined the Patriots playoff seating. Yes. Remember that? The last week of the season? Yeah, that was one of the most incredible calls by Kevin Harlan. watching the game live where he's calling the Chiefs game and calling the Dolphins game at the same time. Truly a tremendous moment in broadcast history in my opinion.

Maybe, maybe, I mean, if you wanted to go crazy, maybe altered NFL history. Because if the Patriots win it, is Tom Brady in Tampa? Who knows? Like, I mean, you never know the way this stuff plays out if they would have won. Yeah, no, good point on that. It's definitely fascinating to think of, it would have happened. But look, the dolphins, in my opinion, you could not have played this

any more perfectly, right? So you go about last season and you're trying to tank, but you're trying to play the thing out the right way. So you want to lose games, but you want to let your experience with Brian Flores be a good one. And you want to keep guys motivated on the roster and competing and trying to perform well. You want to be able to evaluate these guys. Because if guys aren't trying, if guys aren't performing well, then you're not going to be able to evaluate them properly. So you need to get them playing to their best.

I think they were able to evaluate their roster well enough. They won a few too many games that some people, oh my God, these guys are blowing their opportunity at the number one pick. But you know what? They had identified that Tua was the guy that they wanted. You know, he was, I'm not saying that if they didn't have the shot at Joe Burrow, maybe they wouldn't have gone after Joe Burrow, but they really liked what they saw in Tua.

Tua was obviously the number one quarterback heading into the 2019 college football season. We didn't know Joe Burrow was going to bust out like that at LSU, but heading into that season, Tua is the number one guy. They played it out. They got their number one guy. They had patience with him this year.

They allowed him to finish up the rehab, work through everything so that he could get to this moment. And I think they planned all along to insert him. and I think that this is not a team, my opinion, that believes that Tua is going to be that big of a drop-off from Fitzpatrick. Now, I may disagree with that, but they probably don't believe it is. And even if he is a little bit of a drop-off, I think that their sights are not on winning the Super Bowl in 2020. Their sights are on building a team that can win the Super Bowl over the next several years. So losing a few of these games, even though you're playing hard and trying everything, is in your best interest.

Why? Because you need to see what you've got into. You need to get him, as long as he's completely healthy, into the games, experience what happens inside of as a starter in the NFL so that you can get him to the point where while he's still in his rookie contract, you're competing. You have a stacked roster around him. and you can try to win games in his third year and in his fourth year, et cetera. So I think they're doing the right thing here, even though Ryan Fitzpatrick has been completely bawling out, it sucks to see Fitzpatrick have to go back on the bench. But if there's any guy I've read quotes from over the years who has a better perspective on this, I'd like to see him because Ryan Fitzpatrick is all class. I've got a very strange question to ask you that I did not prepare you for. So get ready.

I read yesterday that the offensive coordinator for the Cowboys, Kellynne Moore, is the last guy to complete a pass in the NFL that was left-handed. Have you ever looked into this at all? Obviously, I remember Steve Young being left-handed. We all remember that. But there has been an extremely low amount of left-handed quarterbacks. Does it alter anything? Are you at any, does that do any teams look at it as an advantage?

or is there an advantage that could come from being left-handed? Is there a disadvantage in your mind from a guy being left-handed? It does feel like it would be very different, right? And even like where guys line up and what hand do you hand off with and which side you roll out to and which side is actually, you know, your blind side, right? Oh, 100%. Your blind side is always your left tackle.

Like, there's a lot of odd things that come with it, and I was struck by, I did not realize. And Kilimore was obviously never a starter and barely completed any passes as an NFL quarterback. That he was the last guy, and that was five years ago. Have you ever, or four years ago? Have you ever looked into it? Well, the sample size is so low with this that it's really hard to pull anything conclusive. But you're right in terms of the adjustments that this team is going to have to make during their byweek to try to figure out how to, like you said, the right guard and the right tackle are now the quarterback's

blind side, whereas before it was the left guard and left tackle. And they got a couple rookies over there that are going to have to be coached up. Now this is the QB's blind side. It's going to be an adjustment for defenses too, but the offense themselves needs to get comfortable with the delivery angles for any quarterback. I mean, even if he's a right-handed guy, the delivery angles, the launch angles, the way the ball comes in, how it drops, out of the sky, whether it's thrown harder or softer. All these things are adjustments that receivers have to make based upon any quarterback, but especially when you have a left-handed quarterback coming in.

Those things are absolutely factors that will play into how this thing will go. And I think that's one of the reasons why it's good to get as much experience with this as possible to try to figure out what you're going to do here. And so bottom line for me is the sooner you can get him out there once he's healthy, this is what you should be doing as a coach in the NFL. This is what a team should be doing. You draft a guy. You let him develop when he's healthy.

And when you think he's capable of playing, that's when you play him. You don't just sit him because your 37-year-old quarterback has been balling out and creating a fun environment. Like Ryan Fitzpatrick is not your long-term answer. They've obviously analyzed that he is very unlikely to win a Super Bowl for them. So this is the direction that you head. and great observation though on your part,

Chris, with the left-handed nature of this, it is going to be an adjustment. All right, last one, before we get out of here, Warren, is there a turn back

to running the ball with great success at a correlation to winning? And I say this because last year, some of the best teams were also the best rushing teams in the league.

And this year, some of the surprise teams are the ones that can run it. And so we went through this phase where it was, you know, the best,

teams were the best throwing teams, the best passing teams. And the running game or running backs certainly became less and less valued over the years. And I do wonder when I'm now seeing so many of the good teams also be great rushing teams or teams that have outperformed what we thought they were going to be great rushing teams, is the pendulum swinging back a little bit on this? So my answer to that is no. And here's why. I went through and I went through and I looked at every single team that is leading their division right now in the standing. So you got an AFC, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, and the Chiefs. And the NFC, you've got Dallas, Chicago, Tampa, and Seattle. Of those eight teams, six of them on early downs in the first three quarters,

which is the most predictive, like this is where coaches can call what they want to call. Six of the eight teams are actually running the ball less. And they're becoming more powerful. heavy. Some of the most dramatic teams that have made those shifts from last year to this year include the Seattle Seahawks who went from 49% pass in that situation last year to 59% pass this year. The Buffalo Bills went from 50% pass last year up to 57% pass this year. The Chicago Bears, they increased their pass rate. Even the Tennessee Titans I looked at it. But DeBorne, that's when they're passing, not, that's when they're running the ball, not how well they're running the ball. I understand that.

that it is, it's better to throw it on first down than it is to just run it, run it, third and long, right? I get that. But there are also a lot of teams that are very good that are also leading the league in rushing yards. Well, I mean, when you're winning games, you're going to have more rushing yards. Even a team like the Tennessee Titans, right? The Tennessee Titans, all we talk about is Derek Henry, and we know Ryan Tannahill is good. But isolating just the games that Tannahill started for them last year versus this year,

They moved from 40% pass last year on early downs of the first three quarters, up to 47% this year. That's a pretty big increase. Small sample size in what we've got so far this year. What we're seeing, though, in terms of what maybe you're seeing on your end from the numbers perspective in terms of the output from these teams on the ground is when you build leads, you're able to run the ball more to gain more total yards. But in addition, when you're choosing the most optimal situations in times to run the football, your rate statistics are going to increase.

So if you're running the ball less on first and 10 at the beginning of a game where those runs aren't gaining very many yards, but then you're able to run the ball in situations which are better to run or the box counts, I think this is where teams are moving to next is you're analyzing what the defense is giving you. This is what Andy Reid did. He admitted to doing it in the rainy game versus the Buffalo Bills on Monday night, the early kick game was he's looking at what the defense is giving them and he's reading the fact that they're they're playing soft they're playing back the box is not crowded they're anticipating passing

they're trying to prevent the big play so on light box counts they're running the ball and this is why clyde edwards allaire went absolutely berser so yeah and so what you would say and what i what i am viewing is what happening now with the successful teams is on first to 10 they throw it they get seven yards now on second and three they might run the ball. And all of a sudden, that guy is getting 9 to 12 yards on second and three, whereas if he was running it on first and 10, that may be the two-yard game.

Exactly. You're running the ball more often when it's appropriate to run, especially given what the defense is playing at that point in time, and the defense doesn't know, are you going to run, or you're going to pass here? It's a great situation to do either. And then their box count is light. So now we've got an extra blocker here.

We got a one-man advantage plus one, plus two, et cetera. So this is when we're going to run the ball. And ironically, you look at the team like the Baltimore Ravens, their offense hasn't been quite as good as it was last year. They were the team that was crushing everybody because of all these Lamar Jackson runs. They were really inflating some of the rushing stats league-wide. We're still having a lot of the teams that are leading their divisions, running the ball more efficiently but less often.

And again, this ties back to the beginning of this conversation, how analytics is helping shape. how these teams are performing, these teams that are leading their divisions, you know, with the exception of the chiefs, because they've gone up against some teams that are playing soft, and so they're taking advantage of that. Most of these teams are actually passing the ball more in 2020 than they were in 2019, and it's helping them earn more wins and get into first place in their division. And this is the influence of analytics in decision-making processes over the course of the week of prep and during the course of the game, not just like the one or two situations

where you could have gone for two or you didn't go for two that everybody wants to talk about and just focus the analytics discussion on that. Whereas I think it needs to be broader, way broader than that, because the influence of analytics really is the fabric of what a lot of teams, successful teams are doing more often

offensively throughout the league. I agree with everything that you said. The only thing that I will take issue with is including the Cowboys and their numbers as a division leader when you are just, They have to be set aside. Seven division leaders is five, right? Don't include their stats as somebody that is doing things the right way, please.

There you go. I won't argue with you. We have got an unbelievable weekend ahead because we've got at least two or three really, really fascinating matchups. And then a couple of teams that their season might be on the line even this week if they don't catch a win. but I know we've got that Titan Steelers game, which is unbelievable, and we've got some other good ones. I know you and House are going to be covering all of it on Friday. Also, Kevin Clark and the crew will be back on the NFL show tomorrow.

Warren, I will talk to you next week. All right, my friend. Thanks, everybody for listening to another edition of the NFL show. Make sure you're listening to Kevin Clark and the crew tomorrow.