The Ringer NFL Show - Daniel Jones Has Played Like a Top 10 QB | The Island

Episode Date: January 18, 2023

Each week, a guest tries to persuade Nora Princiotti to agree with an argument they feel strongly about. This week’s guest is The Ringer’s John Jastremski, who contends that the Giants QB has played at an elite level this season. Host: Nora Princiotti Guest: John Jastremski Associate Producer: Stefan Anderson Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Peace! We're out of here. Brian Dable, probably reason number one, for Daniel Jones Renaissance. But I'm going to take a 1% sliver of credit because his career year happens to come on the year where he debuts on New York, New York. So I'm just saying, I'm just saying good vibes all around. Hello and welcome to the island on the Bringer NFL show feed. I'm Nora Prudziati and I am joined for the second time this season by the one and only, the legend. John J.J. Ustremski. How's it going, buddy?

So great to have you here. my pleasure. I'm happy to be on the show. I'm happy to come and add whatever I bring to the table. And I guess that means things are going well in New York football land where the folks over at the island and the ringer NFL feed, they actually need me these days. So like last year when basically the only questions you'd be asking me were, who are the Jets and Giants going to take in a draft? This year has been a lot more fun, Nora. We can we can kind of measure the state of professional football in, New York by your appearances either on this feed versus the draft feed. And hey, we got a little Jets earlier this year on the island. And now we're going to talk about the giants, I think. So without further ado, we're here on the island, which means that there's a take. Lay it on me what you got for us today, JJ. All right.

And maybe I'm partial. Maybe it's because I've spent a lot of time with him, Nora, because he comes on my New York, New York show once a week. This is the first year we've had, this Daniel Jones, Johnson-Stremsky partnership. But I'm saying it. Daniel Jones in 2022 has played like a top 10 quarterback. That's it.

Drop the mic. Case closed. Look at the guys he's throwing the football too. That is a bottom five group of playmakers in the NFL. There's no other way around it. I know Isaiah Hodgins is a nice story. Richie James. The ghost of Kenny Gallaudet.

Daniel Belliger, like you think about what Daniel Jones has been able to do with those dudes. You think about the fact that he's taking a team to the playoffs. He's won a playoff game. He's cleaned up a lot of the bugaboos that were a part of his game, whether it's the fumbles, the turnovers, you name it. And Nora, you know this. The advanced stats back me up on this.

He's played like a top tank quarterback this year. I'm in. Take for the island like a record, spinning on a turntable. only now that record is skipping you're in you're all in okay so the thing that we'll have to get to is

if this is true if Daniel Jones has played like a top-ton quarterback and all of these things hold up what does it mean for the future of the Giants but let's just bask in the glory of this season so far because what is undeniable

is that we've gone from the start of the season where the Giants decline is fifth year option which at the time and maybe even still, like in terms of process, makes all the sense in the world. But since then, first of all, he stayed healthy. Can't forget about that. Second of all, he has really eliminated the turnover problem, which was the biggest negative in his game up to this season.

He had a career high, 472 pass attempts this year, career low five interceptions. I didn't realize this until this morning when I was looking stuff up. He leads the league. He has the best interception percentage, as in the lowest, in the entire league. Daniel Jones, who would have thought? 1.1% of dropbacks. He's throwing picks. It's kind of unbelievable. Then we talk about how much more they've used him, used his legs, used him on the ground,

which was such a huge part of that win against Minnesota. He's developed in this way under Brian Deable, and then they have this overperforming season, and then he goes out and wins a playoff game. What to you has been the most impressive part of all of that? When you look it at, you know, you mentioned the supporting cast, but when you look at the season as a whole, what stands out to you is like, whoa, I didn't know Daniel Jones had this in him. Okay.

For me, it's the athleticism and taking it to the next level. He always showed glimpses of it, Nora, but the previous coaching regimes, the Joe judge, Jason Garrett, Pat Schumer, they did not get this out of him where they're making

it kind of the calling card of what he brings to the table a quarterback where it's like, wow, he's not just kind of athletic. He's a guy that can go and have nine carries for 70 yards and 75 yards like you did against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday. That to me has surprised me. The other thing I'm super impressed by, and this is more a narrative of being in New York and just knowing how the market is and how the city is.

Totally. Nora, you don't overcome starts historically like the one Daniel Jones got off to. You just don't. Like, your cast aside, you're thrown at a wolves. People are ready to move on. And look, I think Giants, truth be told, when they didn't pick up that fifth year option, this was basically a one-year audition to see, okay, do we have our quarterback or not? And when they didn't pick up that option, their initial thought process probably was, Nora.

I don't think we have our quarterback. But you know what? For one more year, let's see what you can do. Let's give this a shot. Daniel Jones had everything to play for this year. He has maximized everything he can do with this team around him. And that to me is super impressive. It shows me a sort of intestinal fortitude that you have to have if you're going to play in New York.

I'm sorry, New York is not for everybody. Not every player in the NFL, not every player in baseball and basketball and hockey is wired to play in this town. That's just, no way, that's all there is to it. Like playing in New York is very, very, very difficult. different than playing it, I don't know, Carolina. No offense, folks in Carolina. You have maybe one reporter standing,

greet you after the game. Like, it's just a, it's different. It's way more intense. Right. It's way more scrutinized. And to see him handle all of that and shine and rise above it, that to me is kind of a thing that stands out more than anything. You've been talking to this guy,

week in and week out, as all this stuff is happening. I don't know him. really at all, my defining memory of seeing Daniel Jones just as a guy, not as somebody making plays on a field, was, it must have been his rookie year. There was just one game. Maybe he was even preseason. He played in Foxborough. And I don't even remember, I think it was preseason now that I think harder about it. But I just remember seeing him come into the tunnel under Gillette Stadium. And I'm sure I've told the story before. But you see, like, even if it was, I'm pretty sure it was a preseason game.

Tom Brady's still wearing, you know, he's decked out in Tom Ford and everybody knows they're on camera. And, you know, the degrees of flashiness may vary. But everybody's, everybody knows that there's a lot of cameras and a lot of photographs being taken. Daniel Jones strolled into the tunnel wearing a North Face fleece and a Jansport backpack. like the uniform of just every, you know, high schoolers across America, right? And it's so chill and it's so, there's absolutely no pretense. There's no, I just thought it was kind of cool because I just went like, you know what?

That's a guy who's just only really thinking about the thing. And at that point, it wasn't going super well, right? But that to me is like the only sort of anecdotal evidence I have of what his demeanor is like. it seems like when you watch him in press conferences and hear what he says, he is kind of that down to earth doesn't always say that much, but just like, chill guy.

What is your sense of that and how it's been applied, how that attitude has been applied to just going through this season and facing some of that sense of the team might be ready to move on, but then dealing with it as he has this year? I think you've described them pretty well. He is super down to earth. He is a very pleasant guy.

Like whether the Giants win, whether the Giants lose, he kind of deals with me the same way, which I super respect and answers all my questions. And listen, sometimes it doesn't give me the answers that I'm looking for. But I know that's part of playing the game. That's the way it works if you're an NFL quarterback. I get that. I understand that. But he's not fake.

You know what it is, Nora? Like you describe them the North Face and the Jansport. like I think he is like a very chill down the earth kind of dude you know I think after a game he sits back has a couple beers has a few less he's not going to be a rah-rah guy and that's fine I think he's very true to himself and I think it's the sort of element

that if you bring that to a huddle guys they know what you're about like I think he would be the sort of guy where if he was like all rah-rah people will be like, dude, that ain't you. You know what I mean? And I do believe this, Nora,

he's got a lot of Eli in. And maybe it's because he spent a year with Eli Manning. I don't know, whatever the case may be. But like his mannerisms, the way he deals with the media, just that like all shucks type of demeanor, he's got a lot of Eli Matting in him.

Now, we'll see if he has the post-playing career that Elon Manning has had. When you find out Eli Manning is hilarious and has this, like, great, witty sense of humor. And I sense a little of that from DJ, but, like, very, very similar personalities. Like, not going to give the media a ton. Going to be very, like, cool, very, like,

calm, cool, collected. Go about it the right way. But that's their vibe. They're not going to fake it. We got to find out if he's into pranks. Because that was always the Eli Manning thing, right? Is that, like, he wouldn't give that much in front of cameras? My sense would, my sense would,

My sense would be Nora. He's not. That might be where they differentiate, but hey, you never know. Oh, gosh. I think you're probably out

to something there, but I hope you're not. Just for the sake of, can you imagine if we're about to find out that Daniel Jones is like putting packing peanuts in people's cars or something like that?

It might have 30 years of pranks from the giant quarterbacks at this right, you know? Never know. All right. So let's talk about the future here. He's had this on, reasonable season.

They won a playoff game. They didn't pick up the fifth year option. So where do you think the Giants go as far

as getting a new deal with Daniel Jones from here, franchise tag, based on how he's performed this year,

what would you like to see them do going forward at the quarterback position? I think it's pretty simple. Daniel Jones is a

giant quarterback. That's all there is to it. And I understand that it's going to end up costing them a lot more than maybe they initially thought at the beginning of this year, at the middle of this year, or even two or three weeks ago. But it's pretty simple.

He's their quarterback. He vibes with the head coach. He's done a wonderful job. And I think now, Nora, you want to see what he can do with more talent around them. I think that's going to be my great question whenever this giant season comes to a close. Because they're playing with house money. they already have had a marvelous season. They had a marvelous season if they lost to the Minnesota Vikings.

Now they beat Minnesota and they want a playoff game. Whatever happens in Philadelphia is gravy. Who knows? Maybe they even go to Philadelphia and shock the world. But anyway, Daniel Jones is the quarterback. I don't know if it's on the franchise tape. I don't know if it's a long-term deal. The owner does not want to lose them.

You could tell last year John Merritt in talking to the media made it clear, hey, we failed Daniel Jones. I think he sees that. I think he now sees what this quarterback has become. And I think Joe Shane and Brian Daibel want him here. So I think it's pretty simple. How they get there might be a little bit more complicated. But let's put it this way, Nora.

I don't see this being a situation in which the giant fan is sweating out whether or not Daniel Jones is back. I know it's a business. I understand all of that. The Giants are going to take care of Daniel Jones. That's my take. right. I think that certainly feels like the direction things are headed, right? I'm going to throw a couple numbers at you because I do think it's a little bit complicated just because the middle class quarterback contract does not really exist, right? This is a league where you've got nine quarterbacks

on contracts averaging 40 million or more annually. That's Rogers, Wilson, Kyler, Deshaun Watson, Mahomes, Josh Allen, Derek Carr, Dak Prescott, Matt Stafford. Then you got four more, Kurt Cousins, Jared Gough, Carson, Carson, Wentz, and Matt Ryan, between 30 and 40 million a year. Then the only, and this could change by the time we get to next season, but the only semblance of a real quarterback middle class right now is two guys. And it's Tom Brady and Ryan Tannahill. Tannahill, I knew you were going to go there. I knew you were going to go there. So there's two names that are where we're really going to go there.

But Brady and Tannahill are both between 25 and 30 million. Then it drops down to James, who is 14 million a year plus incentives and keeps going down from there. So that 25 to 30-ish area is really, history tells us that it is hard to get a quarterback deal done there based on where everybody's shaken out right now. Now, I said that Tannahill was one of the names that we were going to have to talk about. Tana Hill's deal was for four years and 118 million. The other name that we should talk about is Blake Portals. Oh, boy. Who is a quarterback, somewhat like Daniel Jones, different,

but somewhat like Daniel Jones, where you have a highly drafted guy who, for a few years, does not play up to his draft status. And then there's one year where all of a sudden the team is far more successful than they had been, gets to the playoffs, wins a playoff game, wins a couple in Jags example. After that 2017 year, they did a two-year extension with Bortles. The difference was they'd picked up the fifth-year options. So the fifth-year option was $19 million, and then they added a two-year extension on top of that at $17 million a year,

which wound up at $54 million over three years for Bortals around $18 million. year. If you account for the salary cap inflation, the equivalent deal right now would be around $23 million a year. So $69 million-ish would be the equivalent deal for Daniel Jones. That said, one, I think Jones in and of himself, like what he has contributed to the offense has been more impressive than what Bortles contributed to that offense that year. And he's going to be a free agent. So let's say that three years 70 would be like the absolute low point. If they could get that deal done,

do it in a heartbeat. I don't think they could. The franchise tag is... I didn't think I'd have to pay more than that. I agree with you. I didn't think I'd have to pay more than that. Because the franchise tag, and you know, obviously that's one year,

but that's 32 million. So if we went up to three years, a hundred. still feeling good? I think you have to do that if you're the Giants. I ask you this, Nora, what's your alternative? Yeah, no, it's... You know what I'm saying?

Like, look at some of the awful starting quarterbacks there are in the NFL and think about some of the guys who are going to get opportunities. Like, give me a name. And he played well for the Rams. I don't want to totally destroy him. Baker Mayfield. Like, you live in a world where Baker Mayfield comes in as your quarterback.

So, like, if you're the job, Daniel Jones bet on himself. You're probably going to have to pay him a little bit more. You're not going to love it from a salary cap standpoint. But to me, Nora, he's earned that. I think Giants want to move forward. And I think the other thing that helps you, I don't think Daniel Jones wants to go anywhere.

I could be wrong. Maybe I'm misreading this. I know the NFL is a business. So money talks. I get that. But I think he's very comfortable with the coach. I think he's very comfortable in the system. Remember, this is a guy.

he's had a bunch of different coordinators. He's at a bunch of different coaches. I think him having some stability, I think matters to him, playing on a winner. Right now the Giants are a winner. I think it matters to him. So it might get a little messy.

But I do think at the end of the day, even if it's beyond that Ryan Tannahill contract, I think Daniel Jones will end up with the Giants. Like I'm very, very confident in saying that. I think I would be willing to go to something like three years, 100. For what it's worth, I'd probably rather do two years at... More money.

I always like two years more money. Always. Kick the came down the road, you know? You asked what the alternative is. And I agree with you that it's often the grass is greener. Grass is always greener approach. Ends in tears

for end of all franchises. We see this all the time. That said, this is an interesting year, right? Because what I don't think the Giants should do, and I think Daniel Jones has been really, really impressive, but what I don't want to see the Giants do is close themselves off to thinking about things like,

what if Lamar Jackson really wants out of Baltimore? I mean, we've seen what Daniel Jones's legs have been able to do in this offense. Can you imagine Brian Dable and Lamar Jackson? I don't think someone like a Derek Carr or a Jimmy Garoppolo is particularly compelling, given where they are. I would stick with Daniel Jones in that case. But you don't want to close yourself off

from attacking the spots where you can get a difference maker at quarterback. Because as good as Daniel Jones has been, I struggle with the idea that he is a quarterback who even based on this season, his best season by far in the NFL, that he's a guy who is going to be, you know, a difference maker and an elevator of the players around him.

Now, based on this year, what I would do is try to do that two, three year short-term deal. The franchise tag is there, but you'd probably rather use that on Sequin, maybe. And if you can do a- Especially with his position, with the nature of his position, no doubt. No doubt. Cheap, easy, low commitment, great. then what I want to see them do is improve particularly the receiver talent around him.

One, because it's a weak spot on the roster. You know, no shame to those guys who have outperformed a lot of expectations, but get some difference makers at receiver because the thing that I want to see is can he add, can Daniel Jones add a downfield element to his game? Because despite all the success that he's had this year, Still only averages 6.6 yards per attempt.

It's 26 in the league. He's tied for last among starters with only 20 deep passing attempts this season. And only one of the 35 passes that he threw against Minnesota traveled more than 20 yards through the air. So as good as that game was, you know, his EPA per dropback was 0.39. That's compared to a season-long rate of 0.08s. It's around four times as many expected points. points added per dropback. He's still not testing defense's downfield. And I think if you watch him, he misses opportunities. It's not just about the guys who he's throwing to. I think sometimes

he takes the checkdown too easily and doesn't always see the entire field. So if you do a short-term deal, I think he's earned that. And I don't know, you know, save for some moonshots like Lamar being desperate to get out of Baltimore or something like that. You're probably not going to have a better option for next year. And I doubt the Giants would go in that direction too, for what it's worth. I just don't see the Giants in Lamar Jackson with that. I'd be stunned. I think the Jets, I think you could sell me far more on the Jets with their sense of desperation

going in that direction. I think the Giants, to be honest, nor are their franchise. They haven't had much of it, the life. 10 years, but they like continuity. They don't like, they don't like up send the apple card. They're not one of these big, big wheeling, big shifting, big move type of teams. They like

drafting guys. They like seeing guys grow and they like their guys. That's normally how they roll. Lower case C conservative franchise. Totally with you there. I think that's right. That said, the league is trending more towards taking big swings, right? Absolutely. You've

got the right coach. You've got some budding, young franchise cornerstone players that you've gotten through the draft in recent years don't close yourself off to the ability to take a big swing in the right moment because we are seeing and we can see the downsides to that approach

with a team like the Rams this year we're still seeing that win Super Bowls. And you take the Super Bowl. Nora, amen to that. I speak on behalf of the Jeff fans where a majority of them who are listening did not see Super Bowl three. they are craving one.

Someone like me who did not see the 72 dolphins and the 73 dolphins, I'm all for the big swings when need be. Here's a big swing for the giants next year.

And I have no idea if this is possible. DeAndre Hopkins in a giant uniform. Now that's a big swing I like. So I love that. I love that. I totally love that.

Because, you know, I'm making all these arguments about, you know, keeping as a friend an eye open to the possibility of doing something splashy and being able to go all in. And we love to talk about teams going all in in the modern NFL, right? We talk about it all the time. And it's more and more, as per the Rams point, it's more and more common.

The current counterpoint to that strategy in the league is the bills. The bills are the good team. If you look at the, the chiefs are sort of a unicorn just because of Mahomes. The chiefs in some ways do this too. But the bills are the team that is in a Super Bowl window that is still relatively speaking careful about their resource allocation. And where did this entire giant's brand trust come from? Buffalo. And they followed a similar pattern to what the bills did when they got Allen in there.

They actually didn't think he was going to start in that, start right away, and we're trying to use that first year to just clear dead cap money, just clear the salary cap. The Giants were doing that this year. They just happened to turn into a good thing. About this story, James Bradbury is playing against the Giants

in the division around this year. The Giants never in a million years thought they'd be playing in this game this Saturday. Zero shot. Never in a million years. But hopefully, and I believe that this is true, because I believe the people running that team are smart, they're not going to let that success

push them off the path, right? And the path was, let's make our cap health, let's fix our cap health in this one year, take some short-term pain, right? I'm sure the Giants would love it if James Bradbury was on their side and not on Philadelphia side in this game,

but that was the type of thing that they needed to do to put themselves in a financially healthy situation as a franchise, now going forward, all of a sudden, they're in great shape. And when that happened in Buffalo, what did they do? They went and got digs. So it seems reasonable

that if the big swing is not a quarterback, which I agree with you, I think at this point it looks like Daniel Jones is probably going to stick around there. Hopkins, receivers are always plentiful through the draft, but use that money or use a high pick or use both on a difference-making receiver and see if that can change

Jones's results in the one area where I do still really struggle to say, okay, yeah, he could really be the long-term guy, which is just the downfield passing. But do that. See if the improvements in how he's able to use his athleticism, use his legs. see if the improvements in the turnover rate stuff, see if all that holds, and then see if he can develop a little bit and pushing the ball down field

if he's got better receiver talent around him, if you're somewhere in the low 30 million a year allocation to get the answers to those questions and to at least, you know, to have this type of year as your baseline, I don't hate it. I'm okay with that. And Nora, he can throw the deep,

I know this year the numbers are not great. His first year, he was slinging it down the field. So, like, I do believe that's there. I think it's a matter of getting it out of them. And I think, to your point, you get him a couple of playmakers that can stretch the field. I mean, it can make all the difference in the world. I mean, think about, now, not every guy's Tyree Kill. I understand that.

Tyree Kill is a cyborg. He's a top three receiver in the sport. All right, Dolphins fan. I mean, no. I'll tell you this. Tyree Kill wanted had 40 yards of receiver. against that giant defense on Sunday. I still cannot believe

Justin Jefferson only had 40 yards of receiving. And I love a JJ. I mean, obviously, I'm partially of very much any JJ on the planet. Maybe not JJ Redick, but that's the story for a different day. But you get a guy like that, it changes things for a quarterback.

That's the digs with Allen, Hill, with Chua. That's what I want to see for Jones next season. It would be fascinating, especially given the good coaching infrastructure and quarterback coaching infrastructure that they have there to see if he could get back to that a little bit. Because you're right to point out that he would pull the trigger on a deep ball

a little bit more earlier in his career. And I wonder if there's some trepidation left over from, you go through those difficult years. You have so much turnover in who's coaching. And then you get to this year, and there's a lot of pressure to just have a good, stable offense. You're worried about the offensive line,

especially more so at the early parts of the season. And maybe he just got in his head a little bit about just move the chains, just short gains and fell into that a little bit too much. So I can see an offseason

if it's something that they add an impact player, they add a deep threat, and Daibel really attacks that. as a coach and and talks to him and they work on that and go, here's how you're going to kind of adopt a mindset of,

okay, we want to run a good efficient offense, but we want to push it a little bit more too. I would be super curious because this is the question we always ask with quarterbacks, right? Is like, what's nature,

what's nurture? How much does situation matter and how much can we just look at these guys and go, nope, this is how good this player is on his own, independent of all those other factors? And I think that would be a really, that would be a very fascinating test case for, to see that happen with Daniel Jones, especially with this coaching staff. And I think they'll do it.

I maybe have a tablespoon more worry about if this is something that they really, really should do. But I'm with you that I'm pretty sure it's what they will do. Like I think this is the path for the Giants. I think Daniel Jones is tough to kill him for it. Let's be honest, it's tough to kill him for it. I mean, the guy's taking the team to the playoffs. They won a playoff game. Like, that's the sort of thing that you want to reward in the NFL, in my opinion.

You know, we see way too many teams reward way less than that. Like, quarterback won you a playoff game. Like, give the man to still. All right, JJ. I'm on the island with you. Yes. I'm on the island with you. I think he's.

We weren't going to go off for two. We couldn't. We couldn't go over two. I think Daniel Jones is QB1 in New York in in 2020. I have all the, you know, be careful, be smart. I would like to see it on if they could get a two-year deal done with him, home run, even if it's a little bit more per year. 35 million a year, over two years, great, cool, done, do it.

Three-year deal, fine. anything longer than that, I would, I would preach a good deal of caution, just because I would like to see a little bit more of the deep passing stuff change. But it's been such an incredible season, and I agree with you, this is the type of stuff that you do want to reward as a franchise. I mean, Sequan's calling him an elite quarterback after the win in Minnesota. It seems like the guys really love him. Seems like he has a really good thing with Dayball.

It just seems like there's a lot of good energy with the, the giants and you want to capitalize on that. And I think getting a deal done with Daniel Jones would be certainly a way to do that. JJ, thanks for coming on. So good to see you as always. Nora, my pleasure.

And I mean, listen, Brian Daibel probably reason number one for Daniel Jones Renaissance. But I'm going to take a 1% sliver of credit because his career year happens to come on the year where he debuts on New York, New York. So I'm just saying, I'm just saying good vibes all around. When you come on each and everybody's show, hey, I was teed up on it with TV the other day.

So I'm running with it now, Nora. That's all right. It's a shameless plug for our show. Yeah. And I think you're going to go, we're taping this. It's Tuesday afternoon. I believe when you're done here with us, you're going to go chat with the man of the hour with Daniel Jones himself, getting ready for New York, New York this week. Is that right?

That is correct. that will be doing it from the conference room at S&Y with a film succession. So I'll try to do my best Logan Roy and I'll have the beautiful backdrop and the sun will be setting and everybody will look miserable. But yeah, that is happening in about an hour. So look forward to that. That's incredible stuff and everybody can go check that out. I'm sure it'll be great. JJ, thank you so much for joining us on the island.

This has been the island on the ringer NFL show feed. Thank you for listening. We will be back next week. But for now, Shiel Capadio will be up next on the feed to, tomorrow going in depth on NFL news on the scramble. Thank you to Stefan Anderson for production on this episode and to Connor and Evans and Arjuna Ramgapal for additional production supervision.