The Ringer NFL Show - Debating the Second-Best Team in the AFC, Discussing Week 3 Trends, and Asking Whether Fans Make a Difference | The Ringer NFL Show

Episode Date: September 30, 2020

Warren Sharp and Chris Vernon are back, checking in midweek to recap the Chiefs-Ravens game (1:00), react to Lamar Jackson’s postgame comments (6:00), and look at leaguewide trends in Week 3 (13:09). Finally, they answer the question of whether the lack of crowds affects player performance (36:00), and more.  Hosts: Warren Sharp and Chris Vernon Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today's Ringer NFL show is brought to you by State Farm. Getting great car and home insurance from State Farm at a surprisingly great rate, that's like drafting a player that becomes an all-pro, the real deal. State Farm agents provide personalized service so you can customize your insurance to fit your needs, like a GM putting their very own roster together. You need a team that supports you, and State Farm's got a great one. In addition to agents, the award-winning mobile app helps you manage coverage, pay bills, file claims, and more.

With a great price and even greater service, State Farm goes from strength to strength. Choose insurance that always brings its A game. When you want the real deal, like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. Welcome to The Ringer NFL show. I'm Chris Vernon. And joining me as he does every week is Warren Sharp.

Hey, Warren. Hey, what's up, Chris? How are you doing? Everything's great. So we did see a big Monday night football game, but it was not a great game. I think most people going into it, Warren, would have said that the Ravens are the second best

AFC team to the Chiefs. Two questions. Are the Chiefs even better this year than they were last year when they won the Super Bowl? And according to the numbers that you're looking at every week, if it's not them, who is the second best team in the AFC? If we assume the Chiefs are won?

Well, look, The Chiefs, the first couple of weeks, did not play nearly as well as what they played last week against the Ravens. And part of that could be the fact that they were trying to disguise some things and hide some things and save some things for that game. Part of it just might have been the evolution that they were planning on doing. But I also think that the reason they looked as good as they did in part is because of the Ravens game plan on both sides of the ball. I thought that the Ravens strategy on both sides of the ball from the defensive game plan that the defensive coordinator, Wink Martindale, planned to utilize, to attack Patrick Mahomes, was an inefficient game plan at best.

I mean, that's the most simplified way to put it. The strategies that he was utilizing just were not successful, and there weren't enough adjustments off of those when it was clear they weren't working. And offensively, I think there's there was. the same type of mindset as they had against the Tennessee Titans when they allowed some points early and they just felt like, well, we're going to have to throw the ball more here. Instead of doing what is in their best interests, which is running the football. And for me especially, it's if you got a rushing attack like they do, and forget Lamar Jackson even for a moment.

Okay, forget Lamar Jackson. You have Mark Ingram gaining 4.3 yards per carry in a 57% success rate. J.K. Dobbins has one run for six yards, and that was a successful attempt. Gus Edwards, when he was running the ball, 9.8 yards per carry in a 75% success rate. This is what Baltimore does best. And I thought there were a couple of instances early on in this game where they had one series where they just passed the ball three straight times and went three and out. they had another series where they got down,

I believe it was their first drive of the game because they got the opening kickoff. They drive down the field, running the ball primarily. They get to second and goal and they pass it. And they get to third and goal and they pass it again. And then they settle for a field goal. And I just felt like they were not doing their most optimal decision.

They were not making their most optimal decisions from a play calling perspective. Well, This is fascinating because I think there's a lot of people that say, oh, aren't you past the ball guy? Aren't you pass the ball on early downs guy? But the truth is, Warren, what I gather is you are do what works guy. And in most cases, these teams are running the ball with lack of success,

where that is just not true with the Ravens. That is what they do best. Yeah, 100%. I mean, there was a point in time where they were averaging 10 yards per carry running the football. And that was after like three series of the game. When you're averaging 10 yards of carry, you know, it is fine to continue to run the football. The reason why most people want to pass the ball more, myself included for most offenses, is because you're gaining more yards per play, moving the ball closer to the end zone.

And that's the ultimate goal. The goal is not to, we're agnostic to the type of play that you're utilizing. we're in favor of efficiency and getting the ball closer to the end zone to score points. So whatever the best way is for your particular team to do that, that's what we want you to do. And in the case of the Ravens, absolutely, I mean, in the entirety of the first half, they were averaging 7.9 yards per carry and a 67% success rate. Now, if they were passing the ball at the same time for 11 yards per pass attempt, than a 75% success rate, then we would say, well, you want to be a little bit more pass, you know, you skew a little bit more to the past.

It's okay if you're still semi-balanced with this rushing success, but your passing is more effective. So let's skew a little bit that way. But their pass plays, we're only averaging 1.5 yards per attempt into 24% success rate. So when you're averaging, you know, yards per play more by running the football, then you want to be doing that a little bit more often. And this, again, is not just Lamar Jackson Scrambles. is also a balanced rushing attack.

And I felt like, you know, I haven't done the numbers yet, but this leads into a bigger discussion on some of the comments that were coming out from Lamar after this game. There were two comments that were most notable to me. The first one was that he said that the Chiefs and Steve Spagnola, who's a very smart, intelligent defense coordinator, that Lamar said that they were playing us the way that Tennessee was playing them. And I noticed the same thing, and I haven't done all of the man in the box charting yet, for this particular game. I'll be doing that Wednesday night and into Thursday morning.

But what I noticed about the game in the playoffs last year against the Tennessee Titans was it is more like one of the things that the Ravens want to do is based upon box count, they want to be able to challenge you through the air. If you're going to load the box to try to stop their run game, they want to be able to challenge you through the air. But one of the things that I was noticing about the Titans game was that the Titans weren't actually loading the box when the Titans were playing with seven. man boxes, which is the standard box count, or six man boxes, which is one less than the standard box count, the Ravens were still trying to pass the ball too much. And they should have been actually

running the ball more in those situations. And I'm really eager to see when I look at these numbers tonight, whether that was the case this game as well, because I feel like they weren't taking advantage of forcing the chief's defense to load the box more to stop the run game. And then when that happens, That's when you will have success passing over the top. There is absolutely no way that Lamar Jackson, as much as I love his upside, and I think he's developed as a passer. There's no way he's like a Patrick Mahomes type quarterback where you can have men everywhere and he's going to fit the ball and pinpoint precision every time in the double coverage.

These receivers are not the types of guys that are used to catching those types of balls. They're best at catching balls when the box is loaded and there's room for Lamar to throw it into space and have these guys run into it. So from that perspective, there were a number of things that I just didn't like about both sides of the ball for the Baltimore Ravens. The second thing that Lamar said that was interesting was that the chiefs are their kryptonite. You know, I think they're like 21 and one with him starting against the rest of the league

in the regular season, but 0 and 3 now against the chiefs. And, you know, that's, it's pretty incredible. It also, it sort of is reminiscent, Chris, for me, of the Steelers against Bill Belichick and Tom Brady's Patriots, right? Like for so many years, the Steelers could do what they want to do as long as they don't face the Patriots on the road to the playoffs. And then when they face the Patriots, then the Patriots are just, you know, going to take them down because they had their number every single time.

Well, this is the fascinating thing to me about the first comment. When he brings up, they played us like the Titans did. If you're a defensive coordinator in future games, is that now the game plan? Are those two teams especially equipped to be able to do that against the Ravens? Or is this what every team is going to look at? And they're going to say, okay, here's the blueprint that the Titans used. Here's the blueprint that the Chiefs used. And so Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are going to be seeing these type of defenses over and over again.

Well, I think more defensive coordinators will try to utilize some of those principles. against the Ravens. So absolutely, it's somewhat of a copycat league and those guys, those future defense coordinators will be studying that. But here's the thing about both of those opponents. Both of those opponents, the Titans and the Chiefs, had offenses that were able to be productive against the Ravens defense and put up points on the scoreboard. And when you're able to do that, then you force the Ravens, this was the first time the Ravens have trailed, you know, all season, was the very first time that the Chiefs took the lead in this game. I think it was seven to three because the Ravens kicked a field goal, and the Chiefs came down on their opening drive,

scored a touch on all of a sudden, you know, one drive into the game for the opponent, and the Ravens were trailing for the first time of the season for them. So they're not used to trailing. They're not used to playing from behind. Some teams are more used to playing from behind. The Ravens are not. So it doesn't, it's not just going to be the defenses, although I do think that defense coordinators will pull from this and the Ravens need to figure out the better way to attack those types of defensive schemes.

but it's also, if the Ravens' offense is not having a lot of success, but the opponent's offense isn't putting up points either, then it's really not going to stress the Ravens attack, and it's not going to force them to go away from their comfort zone. So it takes both sides of the ball for an opponent to really put the Ravens in a corner. But in terms of the second best team, I still think it's the Baltimore Ravens. I think that the chiefs clearly have their number here, and they're not going to meet them again until the playoffs.

and I definitely think the Ravens are getting to the playoffs. I think the Chiefs, we'll talk about some ideas I have for the Chiefs later on in the show from a futures perspective. But I definitely think that the Ravens are probably the second best team in the AFC. I think that they're better than the Patriots. I think that they're better than the Steelers. And I think that the Chiefs, though, are far on away,

the best team in the entire NFL. Well, but if I told you, hey, Warren, I'm setting up a game this weekend. and you're backing the other team versus the Chiefs. Like you get one choice, you would still choose the Ravens, even after what we just saw on Monday night. And what we have seen, I guess, the last three times that they have played, you would still take the Ravens.

Well, the interesting part is I want to see what, for example, I want to see what Bill Belichick's defensive schemes are against this Chief's offense this week. We actually get to see that this week. I was so disappointed with what the Ravens were trying to do. and the fact that it wasn't working and the fact that they weren't making quick enough adjustments on that side of the football to try to limit Patrick Mahomes. Now, the Patriots defense is not what it was the last couple of years. And Andy Reid's offense has been able to move the ball up and down the field on that defense with, you know, with precision and at will more or less. So if you remember the game last year during the regular season, the Chiefs didn't put up much in the second half.

but that's because Patrick Mahomes, it was a cold weather game in Foxborough, and Patrick Mahomes banged his hand, his throwing hand, under the helmet of a player. And they really just decided to go into a shell in the second half, I call a lot of running plays. But more so than not, the Chief's offense has been able to score points against his Patriots defense. And this defense, you know, this is not the same defense. They've had so many opt-outs and whatnot with COVID, that they are not going to be able to put up as big of a fight. That being said, from a personnel's perspective, they don't have the horses like they've had in past years, but I want to see the scheme that Belichick brings to the table. I want to see what they tried to utilize. I think the

Ravens can play the Chiefs better than what they did. I just think that they went into the game with the wrong game plan on both sides of the ball. All right. I know as we complete these weeks as they go on, you are always paying attention to league-wide trends in terms of the way the game is being. played? What is different about this season through three weeks? What are you noticing? Well, there's a few things that I want to talk to talk about. The first thing relates to something regarding depth of target. So I found something really interesting in the data thus far. Obviously, we've only played three games. So these aren't massive takeaways because we've got so much of the season left to go. But through these three weeks, one thing is very crystal clear.

about how some of the very best offenses with some of the very best quarterbacks in the league are attacking opposing defenses. And that is they are being conservative as they pass the ball on early downs, on first down, but far more aggressive on second down. So the way that we can measure how aggressive you're being by down is simply to look at the distance to the sticks. You know, So on the first down, most every first down, you have 10 yards that you have to get to the sticks. So your distance to the sticks is 10 yards. And, you know, past the sticks means you're throwing beyond the first down marker. If I mentioned the names of Aaron Rogers, of Russell Wilson, of Patrick Mahomes, those are three guys.

Plus, we'll throw Dak Prescott in there as well with the Dallas Cowboys. Those are three of the top quarterbacks and the top operatives. in the top operating offenses in terms of efficiency, production so far this season. Those are like some of the best offenses. And one thing that we've noticed across the board with those teams is they are throwing the ball way short of the sticks on first down. So if you rank all the teams from 1 to 32 with the number one team being the team that's throwing it deepest down the field on average on first down, and number 32 being

the team that's throwing it shortest down the field furthest away from the sticks on first down. Seattle ranks 30th. The Chiefs rank 29th, Dallas ranks 28th, and the Packers rank 21st. So effectively, we've almost, almost have four of the 10 teams that throw the ball furthest away from the sticks, the closest to the line of scrimmage on first down. Very conservative offenses trying to go for high percentage shorter passes on first down. But then they totally change course on second down. Again, if number one, the top ranked team is the most aggressive, these four teams ranked number three, number four, number six, and number seven in terms of the aggressiveness of their passing attack, throwing the ball past the sticks. On second down,

these teams were throwing the ball between 2.1 and 0.3 yards past the sticks on average on second down. So they're just being far more conservative as to the rest of the league on first down and far more aggressive on second down and trying to convert these plays by more or less, you know, you want to try to bypass third downs as much as possible. So they're trying to ensure that they're getting solid gains on first down to set themselves up with a second and reasonable. And then they're trying to simply bypass that third down. They're trying to gain a first down on that second and whatever it is. So if it's second and seven, if it's second and five, whatever that is, they're trying to throw that ball beyond the sticks. And this is against what the league average is.

The league average on second down is to pass the ball on average 1.4 yards short of the sticks. And there's a lot of teams that are throwing the ball extremely conservative. Like the Indianapolis Colts, for example, they throw the ball five yards short of the sticks on second down. That's the most conservative offense in the league. They're a good team with a decent offense, but they just have a totally different philosophy than what these other teams that are having a lot of success and a lot of production. Hearing those stats, I am absolutely shocked that the Cowboys are not dead last after I watched 65 failed screens to Ezekiel Elliott through that game. At least that's how it felt. I'm like, if they run one more friggin' screen to this guy, I am going to put a bottle through my TV.

I couldn't believe it, Warren. And it was like, it was over and over and over again to literally no success. And so it's fascinating to me that you're telling me that so many of these offenses, it's not just the Cowboys, that there are a lot of these teams that are throwing the ball on these little short passes. Obviously, you would like to have more success than the Cowboys did on those Ezekiel Elliott flare-outs. But I don't know. Is that just loosening up the defense? thing. You know what I mean? That they are, right? Like, that's the idea. They're not going to,

they're not running the ball into the line, which I know you like. But it is interesting that their shots are obviously not being taken ever on first down or else those numbers wouldn't be what those numbers are, that they're waiting until second down to take their shots downfield. Is that just a, we're loosening you up on, on first down, and then we're going to try to go over the top on second? You know, I don't know with all of these coaches if it's a specific, well-thought-out strategy. I know with some of them that it probably is in others is just variance as we've gotten three games of data. And we'll see where it plays out the rest of the season. But even a coach like, you know, this is obvious.

Drew Brees and the Saints have the most conservative first-down passing offense, but they're also very conservative on their other downs right as well because Drew's just not throwing the ball down the field. But if you look at an offense like the Rams, for example, they are another one. They rank 31st in the league in terms of aggressively trying to throw the ball past the sticks. They throw the ball on average 5.7 yards short of the sticks on first downs. And I think what it is, Chris, is that these guys want to ensure a nice floor on these passes. They have shifted for the most part. Now, the Chiefs actually have been less aggressive.

Their first game of the season, as we know, they ran the ball a ton. So they actually don't rank as high in first down passing rate as they did in 2019. You know, they were the leaders in the league in terms of how aggressive they were from just a pure passing rate perspective. But a lot of these teams are passing the ball more on these first down plays, but they're just trying to ensure that there's a nice floor. So, you know, with run plays on average, you're not running into a brick wall on first down. So most of the time you're gaining a couple of yards.

So you have a floor of a couple of yards, which is not ideal. That's not what you want to average. Whereas with these past plays, you want to try to ensure that you're completing them. And then you have a nice floor of how many yards you're getting. And I just think it's overall, it's a very well thought out strategy for how we're going to play offense and try to avoid third downs. It's not by running on first down. It's throwing short on first down.

All right. So that is how the game is being played. What about scoring and fourth down aggressiveness? Anything changed in terms of those numbers? Yeah, absolutely. So I think one of the interesting things to me, at least, is when we're talking about why is scoring up, right? And how are teams producing more points on the scoreboard on average? I think we're seeing like this is one of the highest scoring seasons that we have that we've seen on record, obviously.

And a lot of these teams, I think the average points per game is about five points higher. The reality is we can actually look and see that it's only a handful of teams that are kind of controlling this offensive outburst. Like if you look at three teams that have gotten a lot more aggressive with their offenses and the amount of passing that they've had and the coordination of these games, none of them changed coordinators, same quarterback, same play caller from the prior year. but these play callers have just been getting more aggressive and these quarterbacks are playing better. It's the Packers, the Seahawks, and the Bills. You look at just those three teams that are averaging between nine and, I mean, the backers are ridiculous, nine and 21 points per game higher than what they did last year. So that's just better play calling, more aggressive offense, but the same guys playing on the same teams.

Then if you look at, you know, the Pittsburgh Steelers, Ben Rothsburger only played one and a half of his first three games last year because he got injured and then they had backups come in. Josh Rosen with the Miami Dolphins, this is a team that only averaged five points per game over the first three weeks in 2019. Josh Rosen played one a half of those games. And this year, obviously, a new offense coordinator and Ryan Fitzpatrick is playing better. They've been playing some easier defenses. They're averaging 23 points per game. So that's a massive increase in a large reason why scoring is up. And then you look at like the Cleveland Browns with a new offense for Baker Mayfield and they moved from 16 points

a game to 25. The bottom line is if you look at just those handful of teams, we're accounting for roughly 90% of the scoring increase. It's just because of those teams. You got the three teams that are being more aggressive and you've got the fact that the dolphins aren't playing Ryan Fitzpatrick and you've got the fact the Steelers are playing Ben Rossisberger. That's about 90% of the scoring increase, just associated with that. So I know there's some discussion. You know there's some discussion that, well, the referees are officiating the games a little bit differently. And while some of that may be true, it's not as substantial a reason as to why we're seeing increased scoring. And then number two, the biggest reason that we're seeing substantial increased scoring is the aggressiveness of teams

on fourth downs. Teams are playing a lot more aggressive than they have in the past on these fourth downs. And it's actually pretty stark. So if you look at some numbers and you look at what these teams were doing, let's say last year versus this year, last year we saw 679 plays the first three weeks, 679 fourth downs. Okay, 679. And of those fourth downs, we saw roughly 64% of them were punts. This year, we've seen 628 fourth downs. downs through the first three games, but only 55% of those fourth downs were punts. So that's 9% difference. We're seeing, you know, a lot fewer punts this season on fourth down. What we're seeing more of are field goals. We've seen 174 field goals, whereas in 2019, we saw only 149.

So from 22% of fourth down plays up to 28%. And then we're just seeing more teams go for it on fourth down. More teams trying to be aggressive and keep the, ball. So when these teams are within range, like borderline range, we're seeing more, deeper field goal attempts being tried from some teams when they have too far to go on fourth down. And when they are close enough to go for it on fourth down, especially in territory where it seems like it's smart to do so, but also sometimes where teams are backed up with some of the better offenses in the league in their own territory, these teams are actually going for it. So it's more so the fourth down aggressiveness is up tremendous.

tremendously way fewer punts from a percentage basis, 9% fewer punts from a percentage basis and just a lot more aggressiveness from these offenses to try to score points. So I think the fact that you've got most of it, in my opinion, a little bit is refereeing, but most of it is the fact that more teams are being aggressive on fourth down. And secondarily, much of the scoring is explained by some of these really aggressive passing offenses, great quarterback play from a few different teams. All right, Warren, we'll get right back to it. I want to remind everybody that today's Ringer NFL show is brought to you by Fandual

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rum with natural flavors and spices, 35% alcohol by volume. One step closer to our guy, Kevin Kelly, in Arkansas's dream, the coach that never punch, right? He's got a lot of unique ideas. I definitely think that one that could work well are these downfield laterals

that he was also a big proponent of. He's a proponent of never passing. Sorry, not never passing. That would be ridiculous. A proponent of never punting. He's a proponent of onside kicking. And he's a proponent of these downfield laterals. And I think those ideas, particularly not necessarily the onside kicking because the rules in

the NFL make that very difficult. But the downfield laterals, while they're risky, they provide such a massive upside if teams investigated that more. If anybody doesn't know who we're talking about, just Google Kevin Kelly, Arkansas. And he is a high school coach in Arkansas that has had insane amounts of success. And he was dubbed the coach that never punts. And he's still to this day. Never punts.

He always goes forward on fourth down. Let me ask you about one of the, I don't know if it's a surprise so far, but it has certainly been rather impressive to see the completely mangled roster of the San Francisco 49ers continue to have immense amount of success. They killed the Giants despite, I was reading, they only had 40% of their salary cap players available. And so now that's two really impressive wins in a row. Is that more about how great that team can be when they actually get their full complains? of players, or is that more just playing too sorry New York teams the last two weeks? What do you think?

It's a little bit of both. So far this season, they have played the second easiest schedule of opposing teams. And I predict, based on my metrics, that the rest of the season, they will play the second toughest schedule of opposing teams. So looking at total efficiency, they've played the second easiest, will face the second toughest. So it's in large part because of the schedule. So it's in large part because of the schedule. But what I will say is that this game, the Giants were a very sharp side from a betting perspective last week. A lot of people that control the marketplace and weigh influentially in it because of the amount that they're betting liked the Giants in this game. And they were betting it down from where it opened at all the way down to like three points.

The Giants catching three, three and a half points. I could not get on that. I went back Saturday night. I watched more film. And I recalled back to what I saw out of the San Francisco 49ers in 2018. And what led me to proclaim that this was the sleeper team for 2019 once they regained health. And that was because they were one of two teams in the league in 2018 to finish top 10 in both early down success rate offense and defense. And they had like a four and 12 record, I believe, in 2018.

they weren't very good from a win-loss perspective. They had so many things that went unfortunate for them, primarily from an injury perspective. But one of the things that we got to look at is Nick Mullins. And we were able to watch him play in 2018. And I was actually very impressed by the way that he ran that offense for Kyle Shanahan and the productivity that he was getting out of that offense, despite the fact that he is not nearly as talented of a quarterback.

And I know that Jimmy G isn't the most ultra-talented quarterback either, but it is clear that Kyle Shanahan's offense does not need a stud, true number one quarterback to be able to compete in the NFL. And that's one of things that I like so much about the way that Kyle operates his offense in general is the fact that he is not only adaptable to his quarterback strengths and weaknesses, but the way that he designs things with this offense, it's just so difficult for defenses to be prepared for what's coming next. The haymakers, the different types of throws.

I mean, they're playing without George Kittle and their quarterback. And as you mentioned, 40% of the roster, hardly any of their wide receivers are in there as well. Running backs are down and they're still productive, almost no matter what they do. They're one of the best offenses in the NFL right now without all these guys even playing. Yes, I know they played two crappy defenses. But the fact of the matter is, it's the system. Kyle Shanahan is doing there.

And it's one of the reasons why I thought that this team was a really strong futures bet in 2019 before that season started. Obviously, they were predicted to only finish third in the NFC West. And we bet them to win the NFC West. And obviously did really well from that perspective. And it's also a reason I could absolutely knock it on the Giants last week is because sometimes sports betters overrate the loss of a quarter. quarterback. And the fact that opposing, sorry, that the teams rally around the quarterback that they have,

especially if it's a good offense coordinator who can dial up the right type of plays and call things that his quarterback is going to be comfortable with, there is an edge when the odds maker puts too much stock in, oh my God, they don't have their starting quarterback. So we're going to adjust the point spread by X number of points. And when you can find areas where you want to fade that and go with the backup, you're going to have some solid edge in the marketplace. And we definitely saw that here. And I think that once they do get more players back, I mean, this is obviously one of the better teams in the NFL.

I don't think their defense is going to be as good as what they were last year, simply because I think they're going to be in general playing better offenses. But secondly, I think that there are some things on that defense that opposing quarterbacks and opposing offenses weren't taking advantage of often enough that. I uncovered when I studied them preparing as I prepare for the Super Bowl. And I think that there is opportunity with those offenses that are in the NFC West, specifically to take advantage of that 49ers defense a little bit more. But I think that offense is certainly capable of keeping score with anybody.

We saw them put up points in a variety of ways last season against a variety types of defenses home or on the road when they needed to. And I think that that's what it may take for them the rest of the season, especially against the second toughest schedule. But really just bottom line here, Chris, is really impressive job by Kyle Shanahan. Well, and it's going to show up when they play against some of those offenses that they lost Bosa, they lost Richard Sherman, they lost D4.

I mean, they've gotten mangled. And some of their best defensive players, obviously, these New York teams weren't able to expose it. It was a second consecutive road game for them. And they, you know, there was the story that they had stayed up in New York for the week rather than traveling back to California and then back to New York as they had the jets and the giants back to back. And I wonder if that played a part in anybody's thinking at all either, that you, as you were talking about the Sharp Side, being the Giants. And I have wondered, as you watch the majority of these stadiums be completely empty, through three weeks, when I see home and road,

is it making any difference at all, considering they're playing in empty stadiums? I suppose there is, you know, I could conjure up that, hey, well, these guys are getting to sleep in their own beds and there's more comfortability when you're playing a home game rather than traveling elsewhere. But how is this season comparing? Do fans in the stands, are we finding out that it does actually matter? the empty stadium record so far. Do I just, do I look at who's at home and who's on the road and say, all right, that's not a factor at all anymore? Well, I think there's two things that are playing out here.

I think that it's primarily the fact that it's easier. And we saw this really clearly on Sunday night with Aaron Rogers and the way that he was able to manipulate the defense in prime time in New Orleans that the, the, you know, the The lack of crowd, and I don't care if it's zero people there or 20% of people there, it's not going to come close to being what it was. And it doesn't, I don't think it affects the quarterbacks one way or another. They are going to be able to communicate better at the line of scrimmage. And so what we're seeing in general is across the league, favorites are doing better than they've

done in prior years. Favorites overall have covered 50% of their games so far this year. That's not something you can bet on. 50% won't make you money at all. In fact, you'll lose money because of the VIG. But it is the best mark in the NFL since 2015. Now, they've won 70%, 70.2% of their games outright. That is the best mark in the NFL since 2013.

So they're covering at a pretty strong rate and they're winning outright at a pretty strong rate. And part of the reason is that most of the time favorites are going to have the better quarterbacks and the better passing offenses. And so those teams are able to take a bigger advantage of the lack of crowds, whether they're playing at home or they're playing on the road. And road favorites so far this year are 12 and 4, which is the best mark since 2003 in terms of their win-loss rate. And they're covering 50% of their games. Since 2010, road favorites only average a 41.7 cover rate. And so they're up to 50% this year.

They only win 56% of their games outright. That's up to 75% this year. So it's the fact that these quarterbacks are able to do more at the line of scrimmage. Some of these teams are passing more, taking advantage of the defenses that is giving a better edge to their ability to outperform historical results. Now, if we look at the other side of that and we look at the road underdogs, road underdogs, so far the shift, year are only covering 50% of their games. That might sound just like the road favorites, but in reality, that's the third worst mark since 2010.

So road dogs, the teams with like the worst quarterbacks and the worst passing offenses are not having that advantage on the road like the better teams with the better quarterbacks are because those road teams that have bad quarterbacks and are the worst offenses in general, they're struggling to make the same types of. of cadence adjustments at the line of scrimmage or audiblying into the right types of passing plays because their quarterbacks tend not to have that skill set, the capability of doing those types of things, whereas the really good quarterbacks, when they're on the road, even if they're favored, are covering at a rate higher than what they've done historically

because they can do those types of adjustments. Yeah, it's fascinating because you brought up, there's got to be a couple of these instances that every NFL fan it comes to mind. You brought up Rogers in the Superdome. And, you know, You know, it's obviously an easier environment when there's not a bunch of drunk maniacs, you know, hollered at you in the stands. But they even brought it up during that Cowboys Seattle game that everybody was watching on Sunday afternoon. There was at least two times that the Cowboys were backed all the way up, one of which ended up being a safety anyway after they had fumbled the kickoff. Tony Piler had fumbled the kickoff at the one yard line. But there was another instance where the announcers were saying, you know, this is the bone.

of not having that 12th man, because when you're backed up within the five-yard line in Seattle, it's just absolute mayhem, right? Like, especially when you're there. Whereas you can hear them through the broadcast, you know, calling out what they're calling out. So, I mean, look, I can hear what they're calling their signals that they're calling at home, much less these guys being able to hear everything on the field. And so I've got to expect that a couple of these places, like playing at Seattle, like playing at New Orleans, it's not nearly as daunting as it would be if we weren't going through this and those were packed houses. Absolutely.

Now, we will see a little bit of regression to the mean when the odds makers finally make the appropriate adjustments for some of this stuff. But in general, I still think until the stadiums are packed, we are going to see advantage. for teams in general who have good quarterbacks and good passing offenses just being able to exploit some of this stuff and that's not going to go away. All right. A couple of quick hitters want to get to before we get out of here today. Strength of schedule observations with what's going on going forward. What are you seeing? You know, you had mentioned earlier the 49ers, right?

You're paying attention to, yeah, they have this record. They've beaten these New York teams. But their schedule is going to get super, super. tough going forward. What have you noticed league-wide in terms of teams that people have a perception of right now that it could be altered going forward because of the strength of schedules? Yeah, so normally when you look back on things by the end of the season, you end up saying that some of the best teams in the league when you factor in strength of schedule have played some of the easier schedules because they don't have to play themselves. So that's not always the case,

but generally they'll have a benefit to that. through three weeks, the chiefs have played an average schedule of opponents, just total efficiency. They played an average schedule. And they're obviously sitting here undefeated. They survived the first couple of games. And then they had a dominant performance on Monday night. And this is a team, fortunately for them, they face, by my metrics, the easiest schedule of opponents the rest of the way. And it's primarily driven by the fact that they play the easiest schedule of opposing defenses the rest of the way. And given the fact that we know that the Baltimore Ravens are now effectively one and a half games behind them from a ability to win the AFC to get that number one seed because they would have to have the Chiefs lose two games because if they lost one and are tied with the Ravens, both teams have a loss now, then the Chiefs have the head-to-head advantage. So the Ravens need the Chiefs to lose two more games than the Ravens lose the rest of the way.

And the problem for the Ravens is that they face a slightly. more difficult schedule than average the rest of the way, whereas the Chiefs play the easiest schedule the rest of the way. So they play the easiest schedule the rest of the season? Yes. And they're already the bad. They're already the best team, probably. Exactly. And so what the trick here is, is that the Chiefs play, like if we look at offensive and defensive schedules, the Chiefs play the easiest schedule of opposing defenses the rest of the season. Whereas the Ravens play, I think it's the second or third toughest schedule of opposing defense. the rest of the season.

So the Ravens play an easier than average schedule of opposing offenses, but the Ravens play a much more difficult schedule of opposing defenses. So that Ravens offense is going to have to come up with some things to modify so they can continue. It shouldn't have a problem against the Washington football team this week. But moving forward, it will be an issue. So I think right now is actually a pretty good time to, if you haven't already done it, and if your sports book is offering plus 400,

or better odds, like anything above 400 or down to 400 odds for the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl, now is a excellent time to take that wager. Some books are lower than that. You know, you're not getting as much return on your investment. But if you're at least getting four to one, given the schedules as I see it, it's a solid plus EV future to take the Chiefs plus 400 moving forward. And there's a number of books that are still offering that. In terms of some of the other teams, like I show the Dallas Cowboys are facing a very easy schedule moving forward, but there's some unique things about their schedule too. They will play the toughest schedule of opposing defenses the rest of the way, but the easiest schedule of opposing offenses.

And so one thing that I think is very notable about Dallas is the fact that they have played, if you look at the offenses that they've had to go up against, you know this better than not even I do because you're a Cowboys fan, Chris. they have played some ridiculously great offenses so far this season. And moving forward, they are so below even the team that plays the second easiest schedule of opposing offenses. They are so, they play such a easier schedule even than that second best team that their defense should. And I say should, we'll see, but should look even better moving forward to rest of the way.

but their offense is going to have to stay on track and be productive because they do have a difficult schedule of opposing offenses. The Saints have the fourth easiest schedule of future opponents so far the rest of the season. Looking at the other side, some of the teams that have been playing well that face difficult schedules, there's three teams that stand out, and these are all three teams that are solid and playoff teams from last year. The Titans face the most difficult schedule in the future. the 49ers face the second most difficult schedule in the future. We already discussed them. And the Eagles face the third most difficult schedule in the future.

And the Eagles, as we know, they're struggling mightily. They're 02 and 1. They tied against the Bengals last week. Now they have to go on the road to take on the 49ers this week. And something that we're going to discuss on the Friday show is going to be East Coast teams playing in prime time on the West Coast. I'll share some interesting trends and nuggets for teams that do that. It's very difficult for those teams to perform.

Speaking of schedule, we know that some of these teams, and I think most exclusively the Houston Texans who have started off O and 3, their schedule has been absolutely murdered. They played the Chiefs, they played the Ravens, and they played the Steelers. Those are the three teams they played against. As you survey, are there any O and three teams in your mind? And at least I bring them up because they've got a good quarterback. And I know their schedule has been ridiculous to start off the season.

Are the Texans dead? Are there any other O and threes that aren't? There are only what, like five or five O and three teams. And if we even count the O2 and one teams in there, most of these teams are kind of done. You know, the Minnesota Vikings, we faded them all the way through. That was a team who's supposed to make the playoffs. They should have won that last game and the fact that they didn't,

I mean, it's just going to be really hard for them to even hit their win total this year, nearly impossible, but we'll see how they do the rest of the way. Obviously, the Giants and the Jets, those teams were never predicted to be good or playoff contenders. I think the Falcons, look,

if you want to look at the cup half full with the Falcons, they had these ridiculously large leads and over two teams in consecutive weeks and they should have been able to put those teams out and win those games. But the negative is this defense is absolutely abysmal. And I don't get what Dan Quinn's doing there on the defensive side of the football, but blowing these leads is not bode well for his future.

And this is a team that is like every other Falcons team in recent memory. Solid offense can nearly score with anybody. As long as Matt Ryan gets some form of protection back there, as long as the O line doesn't get decimated by injuries, they're going to be able to have a baseline of offensive production in terms of points. The struggle for them is always going to be the defensive side of the football. So I don't really envision them as being solid enough team that's going to be able to put things together to make a run. But I think that they're a team that's capable as long as injuries don't get any worse offensively

of competing with opposing offenses and producing points at keeping games. exciting and interesting. Just not a team I would forecast could come back and make a run because of that defense. The Texans are the team that obviously is the closest to doing that. And they've played just to prudals. I mean, who could dial up a worse schedule for them? You know, their schedule has been absurd playing the Chiefs, the Ravens, and the Steelers in consecutive weeks.

And ironically, they had the lead over the Steelers. They should have covered that game against a spread. They should have done much better than they ended up doing in terms of losing that game was at 28 to 21 last week. But the problem with them and the problem as to why the odds makers only gave them seven and a half win total this season is that I currently forecast them to have the fourth toughest schedule of opposing teams moving forward. So much like these other teams like the Eagles, you know, who are another team we can discuss momentarily, they're a team with a ridiculously tough schedule in the future too. So they've played a tough schedule, but they're going

to deal with a tough schedule and they clearly have some issues. I think they're better than what the record is, but can they pull it together and actually go on a run? I think they and the Eagles are the two teams that I think the Eagles more so even than they have the talent to go on a run, have the talent to be able to get back into this thing, especially considering the fact that there's not a single team in the NFC East with a winning record right now. You're talking about can you make the playoffs as a team with zero wins through three weeks, I think the Eagles probably stand the best chance of any team in recent memory to be able to do that as we sit here right now almost at the beginning of October. However, it's maybe why he played for a freaking tie.

Exactly. I mean, there were some definite concerns about why they decided to do that. But I think the coach knows the kicker better than I do, whether or not he could make that. I could not believe that they had the false start on that field goal attempt. You should know by now that defenses are going to try to do that, where they have these shifts at the line of scrimmage at the last second. And you need to be prepared for that. If they're moving laterally down the line of scrimmage, they are not going to move any closer to where you are so that you would have to block them.

And they wouldn't have as good of a chance to block the field goal. So as a defender, you've got to mentally, I mean, these are reps you could actually practice. If you're on the kick unit, you could actually practice going up against defenses that are going to shift laterally and study the movement patterns visually and get this understanding that when the guy's moving side to side, just because he moves, like, I don't, I shouldn't react. If he starts coming forward, that's when I need to react. Then through practice and repetition, you should be able to train your eyes to know what to do.

because obviously, like, you may not be looking exactly at the football. So at any rate, I couldn't believe that false start. But that being said, I think they are a team that they're very beat up, they're very injured. And if they get some of these guys back and considering the division as it is, I think they're the most likely team to go on a run. They suck. I'm sorry, Warren.

They suck. They are struggling way more than I anticipated offensively. I'm sorry. We're breaking ways here. They suck. Wentz is a Frank Wright creation. They're done. They're done.

Nick Foles is flourishing in Chicago. It's all happening. It very well might. However, I think that this team is more talented overall, top to bottom, in terms of caliber of roster. Look, if you were to line up the 32 teams based on roster strength before the start of the season, I think you'd be hard pressed not to put the Eagles into the top five, if not at worst, at very worst, top 10.

And through injuries and through poor performance and poor play, I mean, I can't explain how they're performing as badly as they are from a passing perspective and their production from that respect. But I do think based upon what they still have on that roster, that they can get back into this game. But you're right. You are right. Dallas Cowboys are always like, I don't want to say it's a cryptonize.

for them because they have been able to beat the Cowboys at times in the past. But the Cowboys historically have played a style that is difficult for the Eagles to deal with. And so those two games may end up determining this division. So those games are going to be fascinating. Last thing. Unbelievable Thursday night football game. Broncos Jet. Do you have any thoughts?

Because we won't hear from you until Friday. Any thoughts on that mega Thursday night matchup? No. You know, look. I continue to be let down despite low expectations for Adam Gase. I know that things haven't gone as well as the Denver Broncos would have liked. I personally expected them to do poorly this year, one of the teams that I bet they're under on. Now they're without lock.

Now they're starting ripping in their quarterback. So I want to see what he looks like. Most of all, I want to see what Adam Gase tries to do offensively. I just want to see Gase actually. create a game plan that's tailored to the strengths of his offense and the weaknesses of the opposing defense. There are so many coaches in the NFL that dial up game plans that I feel are strategically optimal based upon who you are this current week and who the opponent is this current week. But Adam Gase is one of the guys on the far opposite end of the spectrum who I feel just

does the same thing because this is my office. offense and this is what I want us to execute and doesn't make enough adjustments for who's in and who's out on his roster and doesn't make enough adjustments for who the opposing defense is and what they struggle to deal with. And so I just want to see what type of game playing he comes up with here. How often he's using 10 or 11 personnel, how aggressive he's being, what he's doing for Sam Darnold, how often he's asking him to take play action from under center versus shotgun. A lot of different things that could optimize Sam Darnold's performance. And I wrote about this.

Like, I think hopefully we get a good look about a good look at Sam Darnold. But just keep in consideration this. This is the one thing I want to throw out there for everybody watching this game. Adam Gase may not be long for the New York Jets future, right? I've heard rumors. I don't know if they're true that he could be fired after this game if they lose. I have no idea if that's true or not, but that's just what I've heard. Look at what Sam Darner has had to deal with since he came into the NFL.

Every single year he's played this as two and entering his third season. His team has been one of the top 10 most injured offensive units in the league. Last year it was the second most injured. This year, it's trending in that same direction as well with all the receiver injuries and running back injuries that they're dealing with. That is difficult to overcome. But his coordinators have been Jeremy Bates and Dowell Loggins. These two guys, I don't respect their style and strategy.

offensively, and that's who has been calling his plays. And his leading receivers the last two years were Braxton, Berrios, and Jameson Crowder. If you have those two leading receivers, like 2019 was Jameson, 2020 so far as Braxton, if you have any other offense where those are your leading receivers, you know, I think those teams are struggling as well. So I am not, you know, throwing out Sam Darnold yet just because he hasn't done as well or lived up to expectations yet. I think this game's going to be interesting to see how he performs in this primetime stage. But in terms of results of this game or outcome of this game, I haven't done anything from a betting perspective. It's absolutely not going to be one of the most intriguing games to watch.

But it's better than the alternative, and that's no Thursday night games. All you need to know about how your team is going, you can go to your fantasy league. And when you realize that the Denver Broncos are one of the top five. biggest ads this week in every fantasy league. I think the Denver Broncos defense being there at like the top of the ads for the week, that's when you know stuff's not going well for your team. When whoever they are playing is being streamed for everybody's defense, that's when you know things aren't going so great.

And so I was able to pick up the Denver Broncos defense. So there you go. I'm hopeful. And I don't think you're going to be. very surprised with the Adam Gase game plan. So don't get your hopes up, Warren. I don't root against anybody. Like some people, please don't think that I'm hating on a particular guy. A lot of these coaches that I've met around the league are far better people than they, you know, appear to be strategists and open themselves up to massive amounts of criticism by being on this stage.

So we're criticizing the game plans, the strategies that they bring. to the table, not necessarily the individuals. I've never met Adam. I don't know him personally, but, you know, I just haven't been very impressed by what I've seen as he calls games. Totally fair. Warren, enjoyed the amazing Thursday night game with the Denver Broncos of the New York Jets, and I'll be listening to you in House on Friday.

I want to give everybody a heads up. Kevin Clark will be on the NFL show tomorrow with his rotating cast of character, so make sure you tune in for that. Warren, I'll talk to you next week. Awesome. Thanks, buddy.