The Ringer NFL Show - DeMeco Ryans' Defense, John Harbaugh's Analytics, No Tyreek, No Problem in K.C., and More Big Takeaways From Week 4 | Extra Point Taken

Episode Date: October 4, 2022

Ben and Sheil start the pod by sharing their reactions to the San Francisco 49er's impressive 24-9 victory over the Los Angeles Rams on 'Monday Night Football'. They then detail how the Raven's late-game collapse versus the Bills shouldn't be an indictment against John Harbaugh's coaching (9:48) but Green Bay's performance in their win over the Patriots should have Packers fans worried.(18:20) Next, they marvel at the Chief's offensive efficiency against the Buc's vaunted defense,(26:42) examine the playoff possibilities for the Falcons,(31:21) and lament the Colt's inertia.(38:44) Finally, Ben ends the pod by offering his weekly extra point.(44:45) Hosts: Sheil Kapadia and Ben Solak Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Associate Producer: Chris Sutton Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What's up, everybody. I'm Brian Barrett, former Boston Sports Radio Guy, and now host of the new Ringer show Off the Pike that'll cover your favorite Boston teams and stories. From Fenway to Foxborough to The Garden and Beyond, we're reacting to all the biggest games and moments with episodes at least three times a week, featuring myself, and some of your favorite guests at the Ringer and in the city. Plus, if the Celtics or the Pats make a surprise trade, if the Red Sox's going to run, or if any news breaks, we'll drop bonus instant reaction two, so you're always up to date with the latest chatter.

Get in on the action and follow off the fight with me, Brian Barrett, now on Spotify. Welcome to Extra Point Taken. I'm Shield Capadia, as always, joined by Ben Solac after Monday night football where the 49ers handed it to the Rams 24 to 9 in an NFC West showdown. Hopefully you know the format by now. We each fire off three takes a piece. And then today, Ben is hitting us with the extra point. We don't know what each other's takes are, and we just react on the fly.

Ben, you're looking good. How are we doing? I'm doing well. I always enjoy a Niners Rams game because it's always McVeigh, Shanahan, and it always feels like there's like 19 critical takeaways from that, even though probably there aren't. It does feel like that rivalry has been like defining of the last few years. Well, you're leading us off.

So what is your big takeaway from the 49ers win tonight? My big takeaway is that while it will be a year too late, Domeco Ryan's got to be a head coach in 2023. At this point, I don't understand what a defensive coordinator can do and still not get hired. Damico should have been a head coach. Last year, he did have multiple interviews.

He denied the opportunity to interview with the Vikings. The second time, he was big on the Vikings list. So very clearly kind of trying to find his spot. And so it's kind of a tricky prediction because Domeco might just decide that he doesn't want to go to any of these teams. He seems willing to be patient. He's only six years into coaching, right? D'Amico Ryans was a defensive assistant for the San Francisco 49ers in 2016.

And this man is now second year defensive coordinator on what has been one of the most electric and explosive defenses of the last two years. We saw again in this game against Sean McVeigh that these the Shanahan defensive coordinators tend to be really dialed in on stopping this offense. They tend to be really, really good at stopping this coaching tree. They kind of know how they want to get. for their spots, know what the plays are going to be, what the calls are going to be third and long,

and what the tricks and the counters are, and they're pretty keyed in. That doesn't matter as much as it did a couple years ago, like when Robert Sala and Brandon Staley were being hired, this offense was a lot more similar across the league. It's kind of, you know, the Green Bay arc and the New York Jets arc, and the Vikings arc and the Cleveland arc. They've all kind of split a little bit more,

but it's still, I think that fundamental idea is there, is that all these offenses want to generate explosives by throwing intermediate middle of the field. And the Shanahan defensive coordinator, Sala and now D'emico are so good at taking that away. There's clearly a coaching development there and interchange of information, Shanahan to the defensive staff and back,

that hiring Domingo just makes sense because you attack this modern style of offense. You get a defense coordinator who's really dialed in on the way that offense is done. And you also get a young guy. It's a super player-oriented dude. D'emico was very recently playing. The players absolutely love him.

He's going to give you kind of the energy you look for in the building when you bring in a new head coach. there's reason to be concerned. Like, Sala is a very good test case against in the sense that, like, hey, when you go, you don't get to bring Chris Kosterick with you. Chris Kosterick's been coached in defensive line in San Francisco for as long as Kyle Shanahan's been there. Unbelievable every single year of the four-man rush the 49ers are.

And that's a lot to do with the defense line coach. Chris ain't leaving. Mike McDaniel tried to hire him. Come beat my D.C. Can be my assistant head coach. He did not leave San Francisco. Chris Kostrick would like to just coach the defensive line for the San Francisco 49ers. every day until he dies.

And I respect that immensely. So you don't get to bring Chris with you. You don't get to bring Nick. You don't get to bring Fred Warner, who's so imperative to this defense works. You're going to play drop seven zone coverage. You better have a Mike linebacker who can run with Cooper Cup. And the Niners have maybe the only Mike linebacker in league

can run with Cooper Cup. So you don't get to bring some of the cornerstones. And that's the scary thing about defensive coaches, is they tend to take a couple of years to get their guys in the building, get everything coached right, and kind of get the plane off the ground. offensive coaches can be a little bit more spark, a little more flash on the plan,

which is obviously exciting. But for Domeko's sake, like they're playing Talaou, Fonga, who's just unfrikin believable, man. Is he an all pro? I was thinking if you were making an all pro team after four games,

he's probably on it, right? I mean, every week he's doing stuff. Yes, I love Tufong are coming out of that class. So good. It was injuries that they kind of dragged him down. And then, oh,

he's not like a cover guy. He is if you can play top down. And that's what they let you do in this, this defense. Look at every single Hufanga, highlight play through forward to the season. He is never not coming forward. They just let him from off the roof. Just all right, we're too high and then rotate down to one.

Two, I rotate down to one. And Hufong is just a bullet, man. He is a missile. He's the little bullet in the Mario games, the black bullet with like the big grin. He's just coming to hit somebody on a straight line. He's awesome. So you have a player like Hufanga who, day three guy fits a role. We're going to maximize this dude.

Kwan Williams is gone. Diomador-Linor in the slot. Day three guy, secondary. Aziz Al Shaiier, Dre Greenlaw, Like, while, yes, you don't get to bring the cornerstones when you hire D'Amico and you're worried, okay, can he get a four-man rush working without Kosterak? Can he get this, this drop seven zone work without Fred Warner? Look at a lot of the guys they've developed in the margins, man, in terms of, you know, the list goes on. Emmanuel Mosley.

We've got Charles of Menehu in the building now, you know, Arden Key, that Solomon Thomas, the guys that they kind of brought in and resuscitated. D'Amico knows how to get his guys into a spot. He can get a player in the building, figure out what he's good at, and get him on the field doing it. And that is fundamental to being a good coach, offense or defense. I thought D'Amico should have been candidate one in the 2022 head coaching cycle. I think he's early doors candidate one in the 2023 head coaching cycle. Boil down to what you're looking for. I mean, there's a lot of things I write a piece every week on how I would identify a head coach.

But when you have someone who has shown an ability to do more with less like he did last year, when they had the fifth most injured defense in the NFL. Josh Norman playing football in 2021, man. Just unbelievable. I mean, they couldn't play man coverage. Think about if you told some of these defensive coordinators in the NFL who make excuses, hey, by the way, man coverage is really not available to you because of the players we have out there and still go produce the top five defense.

Well, that's what D'Amico Ryan's did last year. And now this year, you get your various word. You're getting some better help. They've got the best defense in the NFL, in my opinion, the statistics would say that that's true. They're first in EPA per drive. They're first in success rate. First in yards for play aloud. Yep. And they just shut out the, I mean, you know, the Rams are not these same Rams that we saw last year, but still, they did not give up a touchdown in that game. And I think who Fonga is such a great example of what you're looking for from a coach, you know,

look at their strengths and weaknesses, put them in position to succeed and find the best version of every player that you have at your disposal. And I think he's certainly doing that. So I'm with you. I, you know, I covered Damiko Ryan's. When he was a player, you were, what, kindergarten, second or third grade. Something like that. And, yeah, he was a beloved teammate. I remember he was on those Chip Kelly Eagles teams. And it was funny because I remember asking him once because Chip Kelly would always go on.

And I know, Damiko, you know, he's Mufasa. He's in you. And I was like, D'Amico, you know, you and Chip seem to have a special sort of relationship here. And it was pretty clear that just like every coach thought they had that relationship with D'emico Ryan. He was just like the easiest guy to coach and a great leader and teammates loved him. So I'm with you. Yeah, he should absolutely be at the top of the list if this continues especially. And to that point, like coaches love coaches, players, love players.

Like the football is a community, it's a brotherhood, absolutely. When a guy goes from defensive quality control in 2017, I gave him an extra year accidentally. It wasn't 2016, it was 2017, to inside linebackers coach, 2018, 2019, 2020, to defensive coordinator of 2021, 2022, in the same building. And remember, I just said Chris, Colesrix, like a wizard on the defensive line, did not get the promotion, which I don't even know if you wanted it. Again, Chris Colesrick just wants to go to defensive line.

But you get D'Amico over it. When a guy goes that fast through coaching, and from what I can tell, doesn't make any enemies, that's a special dude. There are a lot of veteran coaches who are not a fan of when these young guys jump up and big leaves and whatever, they, you know, they view as an indictment on themselves, that they were next in line for that role. They put in the hours. That guy didn't.

I don't like nobody talks about D'emico like that. Everybody's just like, yep, he should have been defensive coordinator after being a coach for four seasons. Unbelievable. And that speaks to the fact that I think you have a one of one personality here. So this like 24 to 9 looks bigger than it was, right? Like Devo Samuel catch a run touchdown. What could have been a pick six?

The actual pick six from Hofonga. Like it looks like the Niners really controlled this game. In general, it's just like super slop fest. Nine points for Los Angeles Rams, seven sacks turnover. that was the one thing in this game that wasn't an accident was a Niners defense. And they switched some stuff up. I mean, those blitz is in the first half. It's like you don't, you know, the book was, you don't blitz Matthew Stafford.

Well, there are lines a little banged up. The 49ers typically don't blitz a lot. Well, guess what? They surprised them with a couple and got after them in the first half. All right, I'm with you there on your first take. I'm up here with my first take. John Harbaugh on Sunday again made the decision that gave his team the best chance to win. I know you guys talked about this a little bit.

bit in the reaction pod. I know people are saying, what are you talking about? Shield. Did you see what happened in that game? And I see it. For those who don't know, quick recap, 415 left in the fourth quarter. Game tied at 20. Ravens have a fourth in goal from the bill's two yard line. Harbaugh goes for it. Lamar Jackson throws an interception. The bills drive the length of the field, kick the game winning field goal. Harbaugh gets crushed for relying on analytics too much. We've seen this story play out over the past couple years. And it's probably too on brand for me to be picking this as one of my things. I feel like I've written about it at length over the years. But I think there's two things that we miss when we have these kinds of discussions. And number one is that

coaches too often make decisions that delay losing rather than optimizing chances for winning. You know, if this were a situation where John Harbaugh were to just kick the field goal and then the Bill's Drive and score a TD. Nobody's crushing John Harbaugh. Everyone's saying, all right, he did the traditional thing, even though the data would probably suggest that he didn't do the thing that optimizes winning. But he does it in an untraditional way, in a very well-thought-out way. And so I think that's one thing that we have to keep in mind. And then the other thing is, we have to judge these decisions based on the information we have at the time they are made. You can't, I mean, you don't, like, if they would have gone for it and made it,

Guess what? Phil Sims, boomer, Sison. I don't even know who was on CBS after no one's saying, oh, wow, great, you know, great call by John Harbaugh there. And so it's like sometimes in the national scope, they wait for something to fail and then they rip it. So this instance in particular, what I like about Harbaugh is he explains these decisions whether they work or whether they didn't work. And so what information did he have at the time of his decision? Well, the bills had just gone up and down the field on three of their previous four drives. He knew that if he kicked the field goal and the bill scored a touchdown, he's losing the game. And he knows the win probability when an opponent is down three or an opponent is down seven.

And you're saying, Sheel, what are you talking about? He's making that decision on the fly. The Ravens have an analytical model. They work through all this stuff beforehand. They have meetings during the week where they're planning for situations just like this. And some of the numbers would probably surprise our listeners. You know, Mike McRoberts, who works for championship analytics, I asked him to, you know, pass over some of the data that he has. And it's not like complicated algorithms.

It's just looking at this exact situation that Harbaal was in. And then the team takes over. When a team takes over, like the bills, and they're down by three with about four minutes left, they've won the game 41% of the time. When they're in that same situation, they're down seven. They've won the game just 16% of the time. So this is like a big difference. So it's a risk reward calculation. These decisions are not easy.

There's no simple answer. And what Harbaugh said after the game just really sticks with me. I was making the decision that I thought gave our team the best chance to win. He was doing that using data, using analytical models, using what he thought about his players, all those things. And you have to make a decision that, you know, it might be a 50-50 decision and the coach has to make the call. So I just feel like Ravens fans right now are probably like, shoot, we've lost these two games. year. We've blown it in the fourth quarter. Don't get me wrong. There are concerns there.

But in terms of his decisions, I think Harbaugh over the long run has proven that he is going to give you an edge. I think he's the best in the NFL with his in-game decision making because it's so well thought out. And I think he's going to continue to give them an edge in the future. What it always boils down to for me is this. I got poison ivy two weeks ago. We all know this. We all broke this down. We all made jokes about it. It was great. I like where this is going. Yeah. What was my mistake? Was it while I was pulling out the poison ivy, I didn't have like, you know, I didn't check to make sure my sleeve was tucked into my glove.

And then I, the poison ivy leaf ripped across the sleeve and it traced a line on my arm. And that was where the oil got and I didn't immediately wash. Or was it assuming for a second that I was enough of a capable of a person to remove poison ivy in the first place and even showing up to the building. It feels like the second one. Excuse me. It feels like the first one. It feels like that later moment when I'm there pulling out the poison ivy and I make the error in execution. In reality, the first error, the far more egregious error was not just hiring a man to bring a goat and the goat to eat the poison ivy and then we never had to deal with this problem.

Which is the thing you can do that I learned. You just bring goats. Wait, is that a thing? Yes. You hire goat people and they bring their goats and they and like whenever you want to like do like massive amounts of landscaping because goats just eat everything. So like, oh, you don't want to deal with like roto chilling at an old garden bed and like, pulling up all the old weeds, goat. You just hire a man, he brings a goat for three hours, the goat eats everything, and then

you're done. It's amazing. And then goat poop is fertilizer. It's genius. Let me be clear here. You could be totally making this up, and I would have no idea. Google it. I believe you.

No, I believe you, because it would almost be too far fetched to make up. But I think you're right. Yeah, that self-awareness. Wait, how does that relate to the Ravens again? Yes. You got to let me finish. You got tied up on the goats. The goats threw me off.

Yeah. Right. What a tremendous luxury. What a wonderful thing to have the reason you're losing games be that your head coach in a one-score game in the fourth quarter against good opponents is making aggressive decisions. You know why the Panthers are losing games? Because Matt Ruhl doesn't know how the NFL works.

You know where the Cardinals are losing games? Because Cliff Kingsbury doesn't know how to get personnel on the field. You know why the Rams lost to the 49ers? Because Sean McVeigh watched Alan Robbins and highlights from 2015 and thought he could play X in the NFL in 2022. Let's go. How are, name any team. Why don't know why the Raiders are losing games?

Do you want to know why the Saints are losing games? So many coaches make so many horrendous decisions. Sunday to Saturday, Monday to Friday, game preparation, offseason. In March, they're losing three games for their team because their wrong personnel movements and their general manager ownership is getting involved. The myriad of ways that NFL teams have discovered

to lose games for the dumbest freaking reasons. It's too vast to contemplate. plate. The easiest things are left on the bone. Oh, and we get on get up on Monday morning and we talk about should John Harbaugh have gone for seven instead of three? Because it's right there. It's right in front of us. It's right now. It feels like a thing we can control. It's evident. It's in our scope. It is, John Harbaugh is one of the five best coaches in the league. John Harbaugh was going for two point conversions last year with Tyler Huntley against the Packers, went for it against the Steelers. Didn't get either one of them. And not for a moment. Did anybody in Baltimore

go, we should change the way this guy coaches. We should think about getting a different head coach in here. He'll be the head coach of Baltimore for the next 10 years if he wants to be. It is just because it's right there and in front of us that we think we have to debate it and talk about it. What we should be talking about is these other head coaches who will never hold a candle to what John Harbaugh does January to December, 52 weeks of the year in terms of coaching the Ravens to be a consistent, contending winning team in the NFL period. Yeah, that was well said. And it's again, I have to emphasize, it's a thought. brought out process. It's not always going to work out, but over the long run, I think it's going

to give them an edge. And I enjoyed all those different coaches, just kind of catching astray from you during the John Harbaugh discussion. This episode of The Ringer NFL show is brought to you by State Farm. All right, football fans, the good neighbors over at State Farm wanted me to let you know that you really don't have to get that personal to get the personal price plan. Seriously, there's no need to tell anyone that you still sleep in an old school pair of your team's pajamas. or that you have a breakfast ritual on game days that you insist results in a win. You know, those people, they're way to attach to their high school sports glory days. They've got those weird superstitions with players on their fantasy teams.

That's right. The State Farm Personal Price Plan simply helps you create an affordable price just for you. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. Call or go to StateFarm.com today to create your State Farm Personal Price Plan. Price is varied by state. options selected by customer, availability and eligibility may vary. It's all right. What do you got for your second take?

All right. Speaking of the team didn't really lose a game, but they very well should have. We are officially in I Am Worried about the Green Bay Packers land, which is odd to say after a win. However, when you re-realize that the win was a three-point overtime win against the Bailey Zapi-led New England Patriots, it kind of clarifies it. That was a disappointing performance from Green Bay.

There are reasons to believe that Green Bay is going to pull this thing out of a tailspin. Dan Rolovsky on ESPN, wonderful talkthrough of how the Packers are generating explosive plays. There is vision there. There is thought there. I absolutely agree with that. However, to this point in the season, Green Bay is 14th right now in EPA per play. They're 18th in EPA per dropback. And almost even more importantly, they're 12th in EP per round.

rush. This team really, really, really, really, really wanted to be able to be a running team early in the season. And you've seen a few offenses, Cleveland, Detroit, Seattle, Philadelphia, Arizona, not Arizona, the Giants, Atlanta, a little bit, generate good rushing attacks to buttress a passing attack that had weaknesses for most teams at quarterback. Green Bay put a lot of resources into saying, we have a very good line, and they're putting two backs on the field. They wanted to be a team that ran the ball really well in early downs. That's not working for them. The second thing that's concerning is that, yes, while the Packers still generate high explosive play rate, it's in part because the offense is play action design and they're

trying to get down the field. It's also in part, and this is a little bit of like, you know, reading between the lines, but this is what we're doing here. It's also because it looks like Aaron Rogers just doesn't really give a hoot, right? A lot of the these downfield throws are like very highly contested Alan Lazzard and Randall Cobb targets, which has never been how this Matt LaFleur era Rogers offenses worked. That's not dissimilar to what we saw with some of the Rogers McCarthy offense, where it was like slant flat, slant flat, three-yard run, right? It was so, so, so, so small.

And then eventually Rogers would just lose patience with it and just chuck up a nine ball. And because he's Aaron Rogers, it kind of ends up working a little bit because it's so accurate, he's such a good outside the numbers thrower. but you don't have Devante Adams anymore. So it's like Alan Lazard and it's Randall Cobb and it feels very limited. They've not gone their RPO game working at all. Their wide receiver screen, such an integral part of the offense last year are really, really failing.

This is a fragmented offense. We talk a lot about the siloing of the Bengals offense, how they're kind of one thing and then another thing. There's no connection. That's the Packers right now. There's no fluidity. There's no connection in this offense. So it's an average offense.

Defensively, they are living, by the hair on their chinny, chin right now, man. This Packers defense is the definition of we're going to bend but not break. They give up over six yards per play on first down, the seventh worst number in the league. They give up 5.88 yards per play on second down,

the 11th worst number in league. On third down, they're giving up three yards per play. It's the second best. Pass attempts on first downs, or pass attempts on third downs are converting at only 12% against this Packers team. It's the best number in the league. This team just waits until they eventually

stumble into a third down and then they actually start pitching. This is a light box off cover zone quarters defense where you can get whatever you want against them on early downs. And once you make the mistake, then this defense can implement. And that is unacceptable for the level of talent and investment that has been put in this defense. There is money on Kenny Clark and on Devondre Campbell and on Jaya Alexander. There are first round picks on Quay Walker and Darnell Savage and Ray Sean Gide.

Gary, this is a highly paid for defense that hopes and waits that you screw up until they can stop you on third down. And for a team like the Patriots to go, all right, we'll run it for four yards with Ramandre Stevenson on every down and take you to overtime should be deathly terrifying. Because when you start to look in the NFC at some of these rushing attacks, Philadelphia, San Francisco, we just saw last night. Yeah. It does not feel like Green Bay is in any way, shape, or form solved the issues that prevented them from

long-term playoff runs in previous seasons. And now they have more issues on offense. I'm like, okay, it was nice. They, like, beat the Bears. That was cute. The Bucks game was close. And we saw the Chiefs run, like, run all over, pass over, dominate that defense.

And now they're in one score overtime game against the Patriots. The Packers feel very, very shaky to me right now. Yeah, I think I would agree with you for the most part. I was fading the Packers in the in the preseason. And I didn't know how far I was willing to go. with that. I still had them as a playoff team. But I can't remember if I brought up the armpit test here with you or on the Philly Special Pot, but let me explain it to the new listeners. That is just the test of the opposing

quarterback. Do they need to make sure they put on some of that anti-persprosprint before the game? Or are they just going to be like, cool, I'm chilling during this game. Yeah, I don't really need to shower. I can go home right afterwards. And that is my way of saying, like, what is your way of attacking the opposing quarterback? I don't feel like this Packers defense passes the armpit test. I feel like opposed. I feel like a post. opposing offenses are pretty comfortable going up. They're not like an aggressive getting your face. Like you said, they're a little more passive, a little more bend, but don't break.

They've got talented players. So don't get me wrong. I mean, if Kenny Clark is- I brought up first-round picks. I forgot one of my key points. You can run on this defense. They have a first-round pick and defense attack with Devante Wyatt who does not play football right now.

They can't get them on the field. So they have a massive issue right now in the interior stopping the run. Yeah, I just didn't see a big upgrade from last year to this year other than Jair Alexander, which is obviously going to be a big one. So, yeah, I see them as going into the season. I thought mediocre defense and probably top 10 offense. And you're right, the offense hasn't looked the same. The offense has not been as consistent.

They really have had two mediocre units so far. When you say panic, like what is, you know, what was your initial take? You're ready to panic about the Packers or? I'm scared for the Packers. You're scared for the Packers. As in what? What's like the floor? where if things keep continuing to go down this path,

what does it look like? Because I just sort of see them as still like a high floor team where they'll have those games against the Bears, but they're not necessarily going to be a Super Bowl, a Super Bowl team. Have you peaked at lines for next week? I have not. Okay. Packers at home hosting the Giants,

but do you think the line is? That's the London game, right? That's a Sunday morning. Oh, yeah, yeah. Not actually a home game. Thank you for the save. London game, I would say eight. Is it seven and a half?

You think the Packers cover seven-half against the Giants triple-option offense? I'm not big on the Giants triple option offense, but the Packers are a scary team to wager on because of the points you just made. I will give you that for sure. And so you go and you start looking and you go, okay, they have the Giants, they have the Jets,

they have the commanders, right? That's their next three games. Like, right, sick. They're going to be able to settle the ship. They're going to be able to get right. And then they have the bills, lions, lions, cowboys, Titans, Eagles, bears, Rams, dolphins.

It gets way, way, way tougher. You got three weeks to start very clearly beating the bad teams. Bailey Zapi-Lat pages are bad team. Bears. Yeah. Good, good win. Nice, you know, get the home open or whatever. Giants, Jets, commanders.

Giants are like not good on, they're three in one, but they're not going on advanced metrics. There's three bad teams. Beat them. Look good on offense. Get your sea legs under you. If you can't, this gets so gnarly, so fast. They'll lose the Lions, man. The Lions are going to hang with their running game.

they're going to hang 30 on this on this defense. You better be able to put up 35. And I don't know if this offense has that in them in terms of the passing game. And like I said, like the explosive plays, yes, they are there, but they're very staggered. They're very haphazard. They're kind of just like Rogers off script. It does not feel sustainable. Like, let alone bills, Eagles, like those are just some of the Titans of the League.

Now all of a sudden you're in a position where you're fighting with the Vikings in week 17 for the division. And there's no reason for a team with this much talent to be in that spot. Okay. I like it. Packers are on Ben's radar. All right. My next take. It looks to me like the chiefs have figured out life without Tyreek Hill

just four weeks into the season. Now let me give a little caveat. I'm not saying there's not going to be a game or two the rest of the way, maybe in the playoffs where you say, man, they really could use Tyreek Hill here. But what they did against the Bucks, who maybe had the best defense in the NFL, through three weeks to go up and down the field.

I mean, Patrick Mahomes was treating that game like it was the Super Bowl, his intensity, his enthusiasm on the sideline. They had everything working. They had Mahomes instructor. They had Mahomes out of structure. They had the run game. How about the run game? 189 rushing yards.

That's the most against a Bucks defense since Todd Bowles got to Tampa. And so they had that. They had the Andy Reed. Red zone calls. I know you just like the run game in the Red zone, but I like Andy Reed being a little creative in the Red Zone with Patrick Mahomes pointing over. to the left side. Andy's been doing it for long enough

that Andy gets to do it. Andy's outside of my criticism for Red Zone Chicanery. All right. So that was beautiful. I'm just looking at it and they're creating explosive plays. They're using different personnel groupings.

The run game is a little more varied than it's been in the past. And it's just so impressive to me that four games into this Chiefs version 2.0, you're putting up a performance like that against a fantastic defense on the road. And so things,

have really set up for them well through the first four weeks. I mean, they gave away that Colts game in week three. That's a game if you play it 100 times. They probably win it nine times. And that was the one. And the AFC West is not as good as I thought it was going to be going into the season. To me, they're clearly in the driver's seat. And I guess it's just another reminder that like it's going to be Mahomes and Reed. The other pieces can change. We saw them remake their entire offensive line last offseason. Then this off season, they remake their skill group. and they're getting contributions from Valdez Scantling and Juju Smith-Schuster and all these different guys. And Kelsey is still Kelsey.

And so I just feel like that game Sunday night, you know, we sort of just kind of take the Chiefs for granted sometimes. And that was one of the best performances you will see against specifically a Bulls coach defense. And I think they deserve a lot of credit for that. Yeah. Stephen and Nora on the recap show, I thought had a wonderfully, wonderful, wonderfully like they discussed an exactly correct take on this, which was the Chiefs very clearly came into the season and said, okay, we can't be in a spot like we were last year where defenses start forcing us to be something that we haven't been yet.

They start forcing us to be short passing game, quick stuff fall out right now. What you've seen from, we talked about this in the week two one where I did the bills and the chiefs, the Velociraptors have machine guns thing. You know, this is a quick passing game now. They have the ability to distribute. They have the ability to get to second and five kind of whenever they want.

and even independent of trading away Tyree Hill, which obviously is a move in that direction, they very clearly entered the season and said, listen, if we drop a week three game against the Colts, we drop a week three game against the Colts, we got to make sure we know how to do this. We have to do it in live Sunday reps, and we have to see what the changes are in a second half

from an opposing defense, and we have to adjust to it. And that way, when we get to the playoff time, and we go face the bills, bills never blitz. Rush four, drop seven, played blanket zone coverage. We've seen it. When we get the Bengals, the AFC divisional round,

and they're running their drop-eight stuff again. They're more drop-eight in the second half against Mahomes than any single team and any individual game the last however many years, whatever. We've seen it. We know our buckets. We know how to get to our spots. So there's an intention to that.

That's really cool to see grow week over week over week. Because, like, they were so bad running against the goals. And then they just came back and said, right, let's tweak this, let's get that. We'll block this up this way. Boom. And then we're good. And it's just, you just kind of feel them kind of checking some boxes on a checklist.

We're like, okay, we can do this against these fronts. let's make sure we do it again. We know what we have. Whatever. And then all of a sudden, if in week 19, week 20, we need to pull this rabbit out of the hat, we've been here before. That's planning for January.

And when you're a team that's this good, I respect that approach. Yeah, it doesn't mean that they're going to run for 189 yards every week. It doesn't mean that they're even going to try to run the ball every week. But I think you nailed it there. They want the different clubs in the bag, different tools in the, what's your preferred way to say this?

I like tools in the box. I like tools in the tools. I'm not a big tools guy, as you might have guessed. I also big on arrows in the quiver. I like have a lot of arrows in the quiver. Different arrows in the quiver. I could get into that. Yeah, I think I would be more apt to do in arrows in the quiver.

If there's something to incorporate goats, as you said before, that might be something we can work on here in the future. All right. You've got to Google it, man. It's so cool. Give me your next thing. I went out on a limb for Las Vegas Raiders a couple weeks ago, and that was bad. I still watched that team and I'm like, all right, maybe.

but I'm not going to do that again because they did not pay me off. The Atlanta Falcons is going to take. The Atlanta Falcons are going to be an NFC wildcar team by the end of the season. Now, they beat the Seahawks and they beat the Browns. One possession wins in both of those. They have their one point loss to the Saints and they have their four point loss to the Rams. They have been close in every game. They've been tight in every game.

The Rams game obviously, like the Block Pond was kind of a little bit of an aberration, but they very well could be 3 and 1. They're a little bit of a coin flip team right now. However, Arthur Smith came from Tennessee and so much of what Smith did in Tennessee was all right, like Derek Henry, 11 personnel, play action,

Minterfield, it's like the Sean McVeigh stuff. And it was broad strokes. But the thing about it that was unique to Smith, who remember never coached under McVey, never coached under Shanahan, was that they just had big dudes. Like Tennessee, we'd not have,

Rabel, you know, John Robbins, and GM and then Arthur Smith as the office coordinator. They just had enormous AJ Brown, Derek Henry. They were just a big football team. And he came to an Atlanta team that was not big. Well, it was left with him from Thomas Dimitroff and Dan Cron was not big. And there needed to be a meeting in the middle. There needed to be a reckoning with that.

And their running game, they tried to get it going a lot of times last year. They'd have games that just kind of ran themselves into a wall. This running game has gotten to the point where they needed to be. They found their meeting in the middle. Cordill Patterson on IR, which is worrisome, but the offensive line's playing well. They've figured out a way to get fullbacks on the field, get their extra tight ends on the field.

The Hessey guy who never leaves the field is a great blocker for them. They've got no name back now, right? Like Tyler Algear or Caleb Huntley, there's pulling dudes off practice squad, plug and chug, 5.6 yards of carry. This running game now has become, they're under center, they're in the pistol. They have a fullback.

They're motioning a tight end. They have found the notes that work for this offense. And that is the core of everything that they do. They then get into their play action passing game, which has been great for them. They're sixth right now in play action, total passing attempts. They're sixth in yards per attempt. Their third in air yards to the sticks, averaging 4.5 air yards to the sticks.

Their average play action pass attempt goes five yards further down the field than the line to gain, right? They're averaging 11.96 yards per attempt. It's fourth. So we have our running game and we have our downfield play action passing game. The core of the Falcons is good. The reckoning is coming. There's got no Corderole Patterson. They've got the buccaneers this have coming.

week, the Niners the week following, and then the Cincinnati Bengals. And I think that they're going to take one on the chin. I think they're going to lose to the bucks. I think that those defenses are going to be good. But I think it's going to force them to figure out what they need to do at quarterback because Marcus Mariotta has not been good for them this season. Most recently against the Browns, seven for 19, 139 yards in a pick. He's not bringing anything in the running game, five carries for three yards.

Marioita through four weeks has been a detriment to the team. They have a quarterback who can point and shoot and play action on the roster, and it's Desmond Ritter. This is what Ritter did well at Cincinnati. This is what worked for him. You're going to have Kenny Pickett playing. You're going to see Bailey Zabby out there. The rookie quarterbacks are starting to play.

And if Atlanta loses some of these games right now, tough defenses, box, Niners, Bengals, and they're forced to do a quarterback switch. They get Panthers, Chargers, Panthers, Bears, Bears, commanders, Steelers, Saints. These are defenses you can run the football on. If they put the rookie in there and they rely on this running game, I think the Falcons are good enough to be a 9- and 8 team

and a wildcard team. but these next three weeks are really important because they could either win some of these games be a better team that I thought ride with Marioota playoffs they could lose some of these games switch out Marioada, get ridder in there and I think they can make the playoffs

they can lose some of these games and leave Marioita in there and that would be the big sin you have to be willing to make the quarterback change to your team needs so the Falcons of the next three weeks watch what they are in the running game and then watch what they do at quarterback the Desmond Ritter drum beat starts here

I was trying to decide, are you just picking them to make the playoffs or picking Desmond Ritter to replace Mario to make the playoffs? But you get it if they make the playoffs. The take is that they are a wildcard team. And then the path is I think they run to some good run defenses. They realize it's not enough and they decide to make the quarterback change. The Falcons right now have a top 10 offense in terms of EPA per drive. And so I will give them credit for what they've done through the first four weeks of the season.

Fourth in success rate because they're run, run, run, run, run, play action shot. So they stay very nicely ahead of the sticks. This looks completely unsustainable to me as I look at the Falcons. You mentioned Marcus Marriota, seven completions in that game. They ran the ball 35 times. That's good. You do what you have to do to win the game. I don't think that's going to work most weeks.

Marcus Mariotta, I mean, I wish I loved anything as much as he loves fumbling in the fourth quarter. I mean, has it been every week? Every time they go to Red Zone in the 3 o'clock to 4 o'clock hour, Marcus Marriota is fumbling. And just distill his style of play, the hits he takes when he's involved in the run game or just trying to evade pressure. Like I have big questions about whether he can stay healthy for the whole season. Now, maybe if Ritter comes in and is he going to be an above average starting quarterback right away? I mean, if like Arthur Smith.

Don't need above average. I need average. Competent. I don't even know. That to me even feels like a stretch for a guy to come in. Does he know where number eight is? Can he find the big guy wearing eight? I hope somebody does.

Where is that guy? I don't know. You're going to find that, brother. We're good. They have not scored a touchdown on a play action pass yet. They're over to their only bad play action status. They're over to two on a touchdown interception ratio. Mario is three touchdowns of four interceptions passing.

They do not have a passing game when they get into the tight areas. And Mario does not going to find that. He's never had that in his career. You just, I promise you, man. Just get the rookie in and get through the lumps. He'll be able to get the. this offense to a point where it's, it's floating. It's okay. It's good enough to ride through that back half of the schedule. Didn't even bring up the defense, which is honestly playing pretty good ball.

Like, you know, they're, they are limited, but AJ Terrell, Michael Walker, Richie Grant, get ready, Jerry. They have enough dudes to win some of these games against bad teams. The Valcans could run. They just got to make the quarterback change. I still see one of the least talented defenses in the NFL. So the corner is fine and it's, I mean, the pastures. We'll see. Watch you some Michael Walker, baby. Young man can play. Listen, I like the take. It's a good take. I need to start making my third take be a little prediction for the future.

I like that you did that. So they would have to beat out one of the following teams, either the Cowboys, the Vikings, or 49ers, or Rams. Actually, they don't have to beat out two of those teams, right? Yeah. Well, yes. But that's the thing is, like, the teams that you just named, I don't find particularly scary. Okay. The NFC to me is very, very fragile.

Also, like, yes, I agree for the wild card. They're two and two, Tampa's two and two. So I'm predicting wild card, but also let's get the driver's seat in the division, baby. Settle down. Tammuz offense sucks. It's so bad. Get Grady Jared, baby. Big Grady Jared game.

My third take, this one isn't really going out on a limb, but I'm trying to say the extreme to which it might go. I think things are about to snowball and get really ugly for the Indianapolis Colts. And I've said I found the Colts, you know, boring. but if you just look at this team and the first four weeks of the season how poorly they are playing and it's not just this last week, the loss of the Titans.

I know they came back and it was a one score game. Their minus 28 point differential is the worst in the AFC. Worst than the Jets, worse than, I mean, whoever you think the worst teams are in the AFC, sorry Jets,

I know you won a game. I didn't mean to hit you there. But, you know, I just look at them. Matt Ryan has fumbled nine times, three more than any other player. This is from the athletic Zach keeper. this stat. They've been down by at least 17 points in every game this season. I mean, how is this thing going to get fixed? They're showing all the signs of just a train wreck of a team. They traded for

a 37-year-old pocket passer. They gave him a below-average offensive line and a below-average group of pass catchers. There was a snap I remember in last week's game where like Matt Pryor and Quint Nelson don't handle a stunt well. And Matt on a sack, a late third down sack with the game on the line and Matt Ryan's like yelling at Matt Pryor. Like, dude, this is out of Matt Pryor's control. Matt Pryor should not be in this spot where he's, you're starting left tackle for a team that has notions of making the playoffs. And so all these things I see, I saw Naheem Hines had some quotes about, yeah, you know, the Titans have had some stability at quarterback. We have a new guy every year. So it's hard to kind of figure out, you know, what to do. We have this kind of growth

period in September. I'm seeing all those things. Shaquille Leonard was back. He got a concussion. This is a huge game for the Colts Thursday night against the Denver Broncos. It's a big game for both those teams. But I just don't see a path for the Colts. Like in past seasons, they've gotten off to some slow starts. And maybe they'll turn it around. And this will look like a really stupid take two months from now. But from where I sit, they look like one of the worst teams in the entire NFL.

Their offense is 32nd, I believe, in EPA per drive. Their defense played well in the second half last week. but let's be honest, on a week-to-week basis, that defense is not scaring anyone. It's going to be the most vanilla, the most predictable defense in the NFL when they don't have Shaquille Leonard. Who do they have aside from a couple defensive linemen?

And so whether it's talent, coaching, Matt Ryan being older than we, I mean, all these things adding up, I just have a feeling if they lose this game Thursday night against the Broncos. And I don't know where it ends. I mean, we've seen Jim Mersey. He'll be outside his private jet. Who's he going to be ripping? I don't know.

Our changes coming in the offseason. I know I'm getting ahead of myself, but just watching that team through four weeks, I feel like the consensus might be that, oh, they've gotten some bad breaks. Hey, they beat the Chiefs. You know, they've still got time. I see a team that, quite frankly, might just stink.

Can I shoehorn in one of my larger and simply nerdiest takes into this Colts discussion? So sports, momentum, real or not real? Um, I don't have a strong take on that one, honestly. I'm not like all the way with the nerds or all the way with the yes real. So X physics major Ben hopping in. Momentum isn't real, but inertia is. Team inertia in a game in a season is very real. Physics major, I had no idea.

Right. Momentum is what is the motion, how fast is the motion, how dynamic is the motion, where is it headed? inertia is an object's tendency to resist changes in motion. If something is not moving, it wants to stay, not moving. It is moving. It is moving. It is moving. the cults are inert. It's the best word for them

is they got some good draft picks that Andrew Luck, you know, retired. It was a weird situation and they said, okay, we have to be patient, we have to time this out right, we have to get franchise quarterback correct, we have to make sure the team's ready for a franchise quarterback,

and then they did that for four years. And now there's just no juice. There's no push, right? No juice. That's what I wrote down. No juice to this team at all. Right. Why would Naim Hines believe that this year will be different.

He has no evidence to the contrary. And UI listeners, NFL media as outsiders, might be able to argue and be like, well, we've seen Stafford to the Rams and we've seen Manning to the Broncos. And like, you can get a veteran in here and it can juvenileize.

I talked about Ryan this year. It was all about rejuvenation. It was all about a spark. It was all about breaking out. Like, it can happen. But why would Naim Hines believe it can? Because he's been there and it hasn't. And that's what makes you inert.

Is like, you know, okay, you can say like all the violence. are so much better. Like, you know, Wentz was banged up. Last year he had a foot injury in camp. And Matt is just a professional. He's teaching the guys on the field. Like, it's just so much better than it was.

And that's great until the chips are down. And then you've been here so many times before. Why would you believe it's going to get better? In the same way that like championship teams, Tom Brady, ball gets the ball down eight with four minutes left. And you're like, yeah, he's going to score. Because he's inert. He has inertia.

He has been doing this for so long that he's just probably going to tend to keep doing this. There is belief that is very, very, very, real in NFL circles. And for Indianapolis, and I always feel bad because I've talked about Ballard, I've talked about this team so much. I've been critical of Ballard for a long time. But it's just they're mired.

They are stuck in this muck that like even if things were to get better, how fragile it would feel, how uncertain, how unclear it would be to the players who have been in Indianapolis for so long that this is what it really is supposed to be because they've never seen it before. They've never had it. They never participated in it. And so you take another team and you give them the exact same starts of the Colts,

miscommunications, tons of fumbles, whatever. And you're like, all right, maybe they can get out of it, whatever, whatever. But for India, it just feels so fraught. It feels so destined because this is what they do. They bring in a veteran quarterback. They're exciting in August. And then by October, they're not interesting anymore. Yeah.

All right. What do you have for your extra point? Finish us off. Extra point this week. I was fun. I try to do like, you know, like some nice, you know, exciting, good vibes. things when I do my extra point. And so Gino Smith, man, this is just awesome, right?

Like lean to lean completion percentage over expectation, you know, through four weeks, completing almost 80% of his passes, one of the first quarterbacks to ever do so while still pushing the ball down the field. It's really, really, really cool to see. I'm going to talk about Gino and kind of how that offense works on the play sheet, ringers YouTube, go check it out, drops on Thursdays. What's up? The one thing about the Gino experience in Seattle that really, really is exciting for me,

and I think deserves a clear statement is that he is running the Shane Waldron offense who's an ex-John McVeigh offensive coordinator and there's under center play action wide zone in breaking routes. And it's the same offense we've seen, many different iterations, many different wrinkles,

with the same offense we've seen for so many years, prop up quarterbacks like Kirk Cousins and Jimmy Garapolo and Jared Gough. And we kind of know, Baker Mayfield. We kind of know that the quarterbacks who look really good statistically in this offense have a limit on their seal. They're probably not going to be that much better quarterback.

It's not going to be team elevators. But critically, the quarterbacks who have the traits that work that offense, is a good pocket manager, gets the ball out crisply. He's a smart guy's accurate. He understands how the offense is supposed to work. He's cerebral are very typically attributed to white quarterbacks. This offense has almost invariably been run through white quarterbacks with white backups because those are the cerebral pocket managers.

And black quarterbacks are the guys who run around. round and they make mistakes in the pocket and they hold on to the football and they try to be athletes. And that's been an issue. It's been a stereotype in quarterback evaluation for a long, long time. And like, Russ absolutely plays that way, played that way in this offense. And that's just always been Russ's play style. However, Gino, and when he was with the Giants and when he was back up in in Seattle, was very clearly

a good pocket manager, a cerebral quarterback, an accurate guy with a quick trigger who would execute the offense the way that it's given. and it is important and valuable to see a black quarterback run this offense. Because while, yeah, they run Redoption with Gino and he had a rushing touchdown against the lions and yada, yada, whatever, Gino five step drops, rhythm and throws that thing. The same way Jimmy does and the same way Kirk does. But if we have a black quarterback running this offense from the pocket,

running this West Coast, you know, you kind of just out there point and shoot, you are the cyborg, you are the robot, excuse me this offense. It is to the benefit of the evaluation of black quarterbacks. Do you know who else could run this offense? Teddy and Tyrod. And a lot of the black quarterbacks who have floated around in the league as backups for a while, they could get the same boost that this offense has given a lot of white quarterbacks over the course of the last five years. And so there are so many reasons to love what Gino's doing in Seattle. It's exciting. I can't wait to talk about it on Thursday.

Like, it's just cool that this is a thing that can happen. Like, nobody, like, we all kind of thought maybe it'd be good, but this is really cool. But one of the best and most heartwarming parts of it is that it is another drop. in an ocean of incremental change on a stereotype around black quarterbacks that simply must be done. Shout to Gino, shout out to Shane Waldrow, and shout out to that Seahawks offense.

Well set, 555 yards, 27 first downs. He was operating. I mean, not only operating from the pocket, but some of those throws taking a huge hit in the pocket and still delivering on time. As a play, I put up on my timeline that was gumption, baby. I mean, that was, he had some unbelievable hangs in the pocket. against the Lions. Really cool.

I thought it. Yeah, I'll be honest. I thought it was going to be a one week feel-good thing in week one. And the Seahawks have a top five offense here through the first month of the season in the post-Russell Wilson era. Very well said. Good extra man, you're raising the bar on the extra point taken. I'm really going to have to give it some thought. I feel like because it's the extra point, you have to like. You're doing like a sports reporters or like a 60 admin.

Yeah, you're bringing some real journal. I like it. It's good. You got to give it a different angle. It can't be like, oh, the. Panthers should probably trade Brian Burns, which they freaking should get my man out of Carolina. All right. That'll be mine next week.

All right. I'm hosting the Thursday show. Let me give the plug. Once again, the scramble. If you want to get a mailbag question in, email the scramble mailbag at gmail.com. That's the scramble mailbag at gmail.com. Would love to hear from you. Tuesday on this feed, you'll get the power rankers, Jason Gough, and Austin Gale.

And on Wednesday, Nora Preciati on the island. Ben, did you have a plug? You were raising your hand. I was going to say, I just remember last week. I asked for people to email me last week at the end of the show because you asked for people to email the scramble. And I received a series of wonderful emails. Thank you to everybody emailing me.

It was extremely kind. I appreciate a lot of them. If I haven't responded to yours yet, it's because yours was quite long or required me to look something up. And I was responding to them while I was eating breakfast the other day. And so I didn't have a chance to look something up. But I promise I'll respond. That was very sweet.

I said it as a joke. And to get the email that it was very heartwarming. So thank you. I also got some emails because people said, you know what? Ben gave out his. And so now I know what the email convention is for Ringer and Spotify employees. I was able to figure it. That's okay. Listen, I like to interact with the, what should we call them? The EPT heads, I was going to say. But my wife alerted me that EPT is a pregnancy test. So I don't know. That corner might already be taken. And we might not want to have our listeners be called the EPT heads. But hey, we've got time to figure that out. The place kickers? Because they're the ones who participate. in the extra point, the holders, the long snappers. I'm still thinking about the goats. I got to find myself a goat man.

All right. Let's wrap it up. All right. Thank you to Chris Sutton for producing additional production supervision by Connor Nevins and Arjuna Ramgofal. We will talk to you next week on the ringer NFL.