The Ringer NFL Show - Dissecting the D's in Philly and K.C. Plus, the Derek Carr Conundrum, the Panthers' Rising Stock, and More Big Takeaways Heading Into Super Bowl LVII | Extra Point Taken

Episode Date: February 6, 2023

Sheil and Ben get together to share their reactions to some of the headlines around the NFL as we move toward the big game. First, Ben predicts a tough time for the Eagles offense based on Chiefs defe...nsive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo's impressive resume, while Sheil sees Philadelphia's dominant pass rush causing problems for Patrick Mahomes. Next, they take a look at Derek Carr's future moves and try to tamp down any Saints trade expectations (16:10). This leads to a discussion about how the Broncos' hiring of head coach Sean Payton could signal that the arrow is pointing up in Denver (26:23). After the break, they dissect all of the optimistic new moves happening in Carolina and try to find a ray of positivity for the Bears within the upcoming draft (34:08). Hosts: Sheil Kapadia and Ben Solak Associate Producer: Chris Sutton Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Mac Jones is ripped. Matt Patricia's calling plays. The Celtics are title favorites. And The Ringer has a new Boston show. I'm Brian Barrett, host of Off the Pike, the show covering all things Boston sports. I'll have shows multiple times a week covering your favorite teams and with your favorite ringer and local guests.
Starting point is 00:00:17 Plus, maybe Bill will stop by to rant about the socks. Follow off the pike with me, Brian Barrett, now on Spotify. Welcome to Extra Point Take and Shield Capadia, joined by Ben Solac and producer Christopher Sutton on the the Ringer NFL feed. It is Super Bowl week on the Ringer NFL feed. Ben has a nice sort of painting behind him at an undisclosed hotel room in the Phoenix, Arizona area.
Starting point is 00:00:56 I will be on my way tomorrow. So today, Ben, we're getting into this Eagle Chiefs matchup. We'll hit on some other big league-wide topics, these little nuggets that get, you know, unveiled. The other 30 teams aren't just sitting around saying we're waiting for the Super Bowl. We'll get to that. We'll do it all. How are you doing this evening?
Starting point is 00:01:12 Oh, it's Super Bowl week. I mean, like, you got to get down here, Sheel. It's so sick. And everybody's walking around. The Brian Westbrook jerseys are out. The Randall Cunningham throwbacks are out. Saw a Donovan Mcnaw, blue and yellow alternate. All right, we are living right now on the streets of Phoenix.
Starting point is 00:01:29 They got the, yeah, they got like Super Bowl fans that already going. Everything's like coming to a head. Like, I've got like pages of notes that I've been taking since last week. I'm starting to come to, okay, I like some of this, maybe some of that. here's some, you know, maybe this bet, maybe that bet. It's happening. It's live. It's such a good feeling. I said, I did a similar, you know, I'm not there. I was spending my weekend going through. I've got a piece on the ringer coming up, probably by the time you listen to this, my 25 nuggets for this Super Bowl matchup. Make sure you check that out on the ringer.com. But enough of that, enough self-promotion. Let's get to the takes, baby. That's why you're listening. You're here for the takes. We each offer three, as you know, and Ben will finish with an extra point taken. Tonight, Ben, you get us started. What do you got?
Starting point is 00:02:14 Yeah, so, like I said, notes through for the Super Bowl, figuring stuff out. What I think needs to be, like, said emphatically and highlighted as we enter this week, so much interest in Andy Reid in his offense, so much interested in Nick Seriani, Shane Steak, and his offense, so much interest in Jonathan Gannon and the Eagles defense. Take number one is put some respect on Steve Spagnolo's name, especially when it comes to playoff football. Here's some stats for it. In the last four years, the Chiefs have played 11 playoff games.
Starting point is 00:02:40 so Spag's their defensive coordinator. Only twice have they had a success rate above 50% allowed to the opposing offense. Nine out of 11 games, success rate below 50% for the opposing offense. The Eagles this year on offense averaged 0.1 EPA in the regular season. Nice round number. Only three times in 11 games did the Chief's defense
Starting point is 00:03:02 give up a worse EPA per play to the opposing offense than that point one than what the Eagles average this year. And guess what? The Chiefs won all three. of those games. They didn't even lose those games for the defense key up those points. Last for not least, Eagles this year, 2.59 points per drive. Only four of the 11 games that Spax's coach has the opposing offense done better than that number. And, you know, yes, the Chiefs did play the Steelers in the wild card round of last year. I acknowledge that that was an event that occurred.
Starting point is 00:03:31 I know that that's juke in the numbers here a little bit. But overall, I mean, this is, you know, a Super Bowl against the Buccaneers or Super Bowl against the 49ers. The Bengals, multiple times. Josh Allen the bills multiple times. This is really, really, really stiff competition.
Starting point is 00:03:45 And when you go and you try to look and understand how this is happening, what's cool is that you don't see anything. You don't see, oh, wow,
Starting point is 00:03:52 they really ramp up their blitz rate relative to their season average. Sometimes it goes up, sometimes it goes down. You don't see, oh, they start running
Starting point is 00:03:57 more nickel and more dime than they did in past seasons. They do actually run a little bit more dime, but it's not enough to be like, this really matters. You know, you don't see something
Starting point is 00:04:05 where it's like, oh, they start really pressing these buttons. Like even like Daniel Sorens Remember when you're all making fun of Daniel Sorensen, their safety last season? They still were just playing them in the postseason, right? Reduced snaps, but it was something they did in the regular season.
Starting point is 00:04:19 It's not like they just take them off the field and they hide them. So you start asking yourself, why is this defense performed so well in the postseason relative to the regular season? And when you go into the numbers and try to find a theme, you really don't locate anything. It's just they tend to be really good get off the field and third downs. And then what you've seen in the past two games this post season is to get takeaways. Four takeaways in the past two games they've played. one of them, kind of like an end of the game,
Starting point is 00:04:42 no nothing against the Jaguars when the Jags are trying to get back, you know, down 10, late, whatever. Down 17, I should say, actually late. But in general, they've done a really nice job taking the football way with rookie defensive backs.
Starting point is 00:04:52 And so Spags who's been in the league for forever, man. I was kind of like wondering, like, why doesn't you have any, any like head coaching buzz? Okay, the Rams, you know, stint was so bad. But that was over a decade ago. You don't realize how long Spags has just been around
Starting point is 00:05:05 as a defensive coordinator. Back to those days for the Giants. So much playoff experience. Spags is just rock steady when it comes to playoff performance, especially for these chiefs where his defense is no,
Starting point is 00:05:16 listen, we just got to get a couple of drives. We're going to give him some touchdowns. It's okay. We got to get a sack and enforce a punt and flip the field position. We got to get a turnover
Starting point is 00:05:24 and generate a short field. Our ask isn't that big. This offense will handle itself, right? Those two losses that the chiefs did suffer in the playoffs, Buck's Super Bowl, and then Bengals' AFC championship game last year.
Starting point is 00:05:35 Well, the offense really struggled in both of those games, right? And so usually when the offense works, this Spaggs defense does enough to get the job done, beat legit playoff opponents. I think the fourth coordinator, the one who's getting the least amount of attention, really deserves some love. Spaggs in the playoffs, his lights out. Yeah, it's not a great defense. It's not a shut down defense.
Starting point is 00:05:54 I would agree with you that the brilliance or, you know, the positive with Steve Spagnolo is his ability to come up with a game plan against a specific opponent in a big spot in the playoffs, like you mentioned. And that's going to be really interesting in this game because they're not loaded defensively. I mean, you look at the talent. They've got some nice players. I think, you know, you would put that up against the other 32 teams. And it would be somewhere in the middle of the pack specifically. We don't know about legurious needs injury. I mean, you could be talking about a situation where when the chiefs are in dime, like we saw in the AFC championship game,
Starting point is 00:06:29 they've got four rookies out there in their defensive backfield, four out of six players. You're throwing Carloptera. Now you're saying they get a five out of 11 players. on the field are rookie. So I think, I think he's done a nice job. I think he's done more with less. I think he's evolved this year. Ben, if you look at the numbers like, you know, previously you thought are aggressive, aggressive, man coverage. Blitz has not been the case so much this year. Those percentages have gone down. They've played more zone. They've played more split safety. They picked their spots with when to Blitz. So I'm really interested in his game plan for this
Starting point is 00:07:04 game. I think a lot's going to come down to third down. I think he's going to be be aggressive on third down. I think he's going to cook up some great blitz schemes on third down. That's been an area where the Eagles offense has not been great. Can Jalen Hertz? Can Nick Siriani, can that offense have answers on those third downs where, you know, I think Spagnolo is going to be aggressive. So we'll see. Yeah. I have a sneaky feeling that the chiefs are doing something in terms of defensive backs that is really clever and is going to get caught onto because they have a guy on their analytics staff. I can't recall his name.
Starting point is 00:07:41 I'll find it here. Who won the 2021 Big Data Bowl with a project that was about charting individual defensive players performance and coverage. And then they brought them on as their staff. And the next year, they're playing all rookie defensive backs and all these guys are drafted in the sixth round. And they're all good. They know something, something that we don't know is happening in Kansas City.
Starting point is 00:08:02 Because the play they're getting out of this secondary, Brian Cook, Jalen Watson, They, like, yeah, I mean, like, Watson, I knew he was like, horned his own as a rookie. I remember watching him early in the season being like, oh, yeah, okay. This recent film's been good, good period. Sixth round rookie. I'm, I'm extremely impressed with what they've done with that rookie secondary.
Starting point is 00:08:23 That's really hard to do. There you go. Ben shows back some love for his first take. All right, my first take, also Super Bowl related. One matchup. This matchup will determine who wins Super Bowl 57. It's the Eagles pass. against the Chiefs offensive line and Patrick Mahomes.
Starting point is 00:08:42 I mean, this to me is the game. You look at the Eagles all season long. They've sacked opponents on 11.5% of their past plays, the highest mark for any defense in the last 20 years in the NFL. This pass rush has been historically good. And what's amazing about it is if you look at their numbers when they don't blitz, when they rush four or fewer, the sack rate actually goes up, which is kind of unheard of, 11.8%.
Starting point is 00:09:07 So we know they're not going to blitz a lot. This ski, you know, and some of those sacks that we've seen on film, are they coverage sacks? Absolutely. But you know what? Their film is littered with reps of Hassan Reddick, Josh Sweat, Brandon Graham, Jvon Hargrave, winning their one-on-one battles. And I think that's what this game comes down to. I don't think you're going to confuse Mahomes. I don't think Mahomes is going to look up and say, oh, I wasn't expecting that coverage.
Starting point is 00:09:32 Oh, I didn't think that guy was going to drop there. No, I think he's seen it all. I don't trust the Eagles to win that kind of. to chess match. I think they need to win up front. They need to win quickly. They need to win in high leverage situations. And most important of all, they need to finish. Because you know who is the hardest quarterback to finish Sakson in the NFL? It's not Lamar Jackson. It's not Josh Allen. It's not Jalen Hertz. It's Patrick Mahomes. I think maybe his most underrated trait is his awareness. I mean, you look at him even last week against the Bengals. He's getting pressured.
Starting point is 00:10:07 but those are not resulting in negative plays. He was sacked at the third lowest rate of any starting quarterback this season. And once that I looked up that I like, pro football focus keeps his pressure to sack rate, which means exactly. I was just looking it up to make sure I knew the number in the event that you didn't say it. Yeah, it means exactly what you think it means. How often does a pressure turn into a sack? For Patrick Mahomes, that number is just 10.5 percent, easily the lowest for any
Starting point is 00:10:37 starting quarterback in the NFL. So just pressuring him, you know, coaches, players sometimes you hear him say, nah, sacks are overrated. You just got to move the quarterback off his spot. No, no, no, not against this guy. That doesn't matter. You move him off the spot. Guess what he does. He climbs the pocket. He gets sandwiched and he throws a dart to Marcus Valdez Scantling in the middle of the end zone for a touchdown. He does that consistently. So I think this game will come down to the Eagles pass rush and their ability to finish against Patrick Mahomes. Because I like their matchups on the outside, at tackle against Andrew Wiley, against Orlando Brown, not saying those guys are bad players,
Starting point is 00:11:17 but you give me Reddick, Graham, and sweat against those players for an entire game. I think they're going to win their fair share of matchups. The question is, will those wins result in negative plays, Benjamin Solek? Yeah, so this is very interesting. I want you to help me square something here. So you said, you got to win early. and you got to get them down, right? That's the number one thing.
Starting point is 00:11:38 I agree. It's a very obvious thing, so it feels weird. Like, it's not as bad as me leading the show off with like, they need to win the turnover battle. But yeah,
Starting point is 00:11:45 sorry, go ahead. No, but like, okay, so it is a very obvious thing, but at the same time, it's Patrick Mahomes.
Starting point is 00:11:50 So it's like, if there's one thing you got to do, then we got to talk about the one thing you got to do. If you can't do the one thing you got to do, let's go home, take your ball. I mean, it's not like,
Starting point is 00:11:58 oh, if this is the one thing you got to do against, get Derrick Carr. Like, that's boring. This is like, Derek Carr's listening going, what did I do to you? You know,
Starting point is 00:12:05 I got a Derrick Car take later. All right. I learned I was blocked by one of Derek Carr's brothers, Darren Carr. It turns out there's a third one of whom I was unaware and he has blocked me.
Starting point is 00:12:14 So now I'm anti-Darricar for this reason. Okay, so here's one I need you to help me square. I was doing the work before the Bengals AFC championship game. Mahomes, last 56 games that they've played. This was Breed the Bengals game.
Starting point is 00:12:30 So there's now 57 total games. He had a moment has a time to throw over three seconds in over three seconds in only eight of those games. He's three and five in those games. This is how you make him lose. It's high time to throw, right? On these games, this is where he performs poorly. So there's a bit of like a catch-22 here where it's like, yes, you want to get to him and you want to get him down. But also if you pressure him and he knows the clock is fast and he knows he's going to win on the outside,
Starting point is 00:12:58 pass rushes and so on and so forth, then. he's just going to get rid of the ball quickly. And when he gets rid of the ball quickly, he doesn't lose. You can't beat him. You have to make him hold him hold him to the football. But also when he holds on to the football, he's terrifying because he's Mahomes.
Starting point is 00:13:11 And so a lot of, like, the way I've been trying to think about this, I know this is making no sense, so I'm asking you to square this with me. A lot of the way that I've been thinking about it is like, yes, you need your pass rush to win, but really fundamentally, you need your coverage to win.
Starting point is 00:13:23 Like, they're linked. They're always going to be linked, but you cannot be in a spot where he's able to get rid of the, the ball quickly. Whether you don't pressure him and you, and you know, he's, he runs around, like screwing around back there, like the Bengals safety championship game last year, whether they rushed in three and he's just kind of like forcing him himself out of the pocket and trying to create something. Or whether you are pressuring him, he's escaping, sees Mahomes is what he does. He only gets
Starting point is 00:13:47 sacked on 10% of his pressures. And then he runs out, whether it's like part of the design or not part of the design, you're flushing him intentionally. Whatever it is you're doing with the rush, you have to be sound in coverage. You have to force him to hold on the football. So like, I think there's like a degree to which, like, yeah, you've got to beat him with the rush, but also like even if you do beat him with the rush, if he knows you are and he's just dumping the football off, he's beating you. Like they are good enough in the short game. They're good enough after the catch where like it's not enough.
Starting point is 00:14:13 I really do think, like you said the one matchup is the Eagles pass rush versus the line. I really like I'm getting to the point where I'm thinking it's Eagles coverage versus the receiving core, which sounds great because the receiving course kind of bad. But it's, um, I don't know. where I land on this. I'm struggling to figure out what exactly it is the, what the pressure point is you can hit on the homes that really hurts them. Yeah, I mean, I think there might be some noise with those stats about when he holds on, you know, to the ball a long time. They lose. I mean, if you look at just the numbers when he holds on to the ball and it depends where you cut it off,
Starting point is 00:14:46 but, but they're pretty good. I mean, we, and we have our eyes. He can extend plays. Oh, he, he leads the league over the last three years combined. And expected points at it on dropbacks of over three seconds. Right. But also in the end, Eight, in the five of the nine games he's lost this past three years or whatever the heck it is, he's been low time, he's been really high time to throw. It's been above three seconds. So it's weird. I agree with you.
Starting point is 00:15:09 Yeah, I mean, one of the things you notice when you look up all of Mahomes and splits is just like, if you're an analytic staffer for the Eagles or the Bengals last week, there is no answer. I mean, I was literally doing this exercise this weekend. He's first against man. He's first against zone. He's first when you blitz. He's first when you rush four or fewer. he's first against, I think, single high,
Starting point is 00:15:29 and then I go, oh, he's not first against split safety. He was second. He was second when you play split safety coverage. We got him. Here we go. There's no great answer. Listen, Mahomes, if you look at his numbers, his worst games are an average game for a league-wide starter.
Starting point is 00:15:42 So that's what you're talking about, a different range of outcomes, a different curve you're working with. I just think that on third down in those high leverage situations, and it sounds so stupid, but when you're talking about a defense that has had this many sacks, a historic number of sack, a historic sack percentage
Starting point is 00:15:59 over the last 20 years that they're going to need to win those matchups and win them quickly. So we shall say, all right, what do you got, Benjamin for your second point of the show? Derek Art of the Saints is not a good idea.
Starting point is 00:16:13 We can't, we can't, we can't be doing this. The Saints are $60 million over the 2020-3 expected cap. Hold on, real quick. Let me ask you, trade or at all before you continue? Trade definitely no.
Starting point is 00:16:31 Okay. Acquire and free agency, 2% chance, yes. 98% chance no. Because, right, the same is $60 million over the cap in 2023. And while Derek Carr, if he hits free agency,
Starting point is 00:16:45 is probably going to make less than like the $40 million price tag that he would be at if he were traded, I don't think he's going to make a lot. Like, this is Derek Carr. Like, he's and not, you know, elite quarterback.
Starting point is 00:16:57 He's not an nearly quarterback, but he's a very good quarterback. This is a solid player at once had an MVP campaign when everything was right for him. You know what I'm saying? Like,
Starting point is 00:17:04 this is a quality starting quarterback. So if he's demanding, like if Daniel Jones making $40 million per season, which like that's the, he's not making $40 million. I swear to you, in Mobile.
Starting point is 00:17:17 I swear, I was asking everybody in Mobile, like, all right, Daniel Jones contract. And I was like, yeah, around $40 million per.
Starting point is 00:17:21 And I was like, am I being punked? am I on camera? Did you all come up with this beforehand? That's what people say for Jones. But if people are saying that number for Jones, then Carr's getting around that as well. And I don't know if the Saints have that in their wallet, right?
Starting point is 00:17:35 $60 million over the cap. Now, the Saints' draft pick situation has gotten better than it was previously, right? We talked a lot about them making that trade with the Eagles move up in the first round. It's like, all right, why are they doing this? They're the Saints. They always think they can just kick the can another year down the road. But they got a first and a second back for Payton. So they have all their regular picks in all of their regular rounds.
Starting point is 00:17:55 It's just their first round pick this year is 29 because it's originally the Niners pick. So it's way later than you wish. But other than that, like, okay, draft pick wise, they're okay. So they could, if they wanted to, do the tradeback thing, get some extra picks, start to fill this roster with young talent, settle down underneath the cap, the sort of thing we've been recommending that they do for the last couple of seasons since Drew Brees retired, since Sean Payham retired. You've not been a playoff team these last two seasons.
Starting point is 00:18:22 legitimate playoff team these last two seasons. Well, here we are with potentially moving out for Derek Carr. James Winston's on contract next year for $15.6 million. He has like $15 million with a void money that's going to kick back onto this year's cap if you try to get rid of him, if you try to move on from him. They have to resign Marcus Davenport and David on Yamada. And you say, oh, well, then just don't resign those guys. You can't because you got four years worth of void money that if you don't sign them to an extension, that money is going to kick onto this year's salary cap. And they moved back the, the, the, date, which those void years hit from February 14th to March 17th.
Starting point is 00:18:57 So they have enough time to sign these guys to extensions in the event that they make a move like Derek Carr. Here are the current wide receivers under contract for the Saints. Chris Alaveh, Rashid Shaheed, our boy, big Rashid Shahid fans here, extra point taken. Love him. Big, yeah, big speedster. Treyquan Smith, Kirk Merritt and Kwan Baker. $100 if you can tell me a fact about Kirk Merritt or Kwan Baker. We both know that's not happened.
Starting point is 00:19:20 defensive lineman under contract. Cam Jordan, Carl Granderson, Peyton Turner, Jabari Zuniga, Prince and Mili. That's Edge and Defensive Tackle. Those are all the dudes they have under contract for next year. $100,000 if you can tell me a fact about Jabari Zuniga or Prince Amili. Zuniga went to Florida,
Starting point is 00:19:36 I believe. Dang it. Okay. All right. I owe you to know when you get out here. Well done. The, right, Restrictive for agency, Joanne Johnson, Marquez Calloway. This team has, you know, this is from Jason for Sheld of over the cap. They have
Starting point is 00:19:49 $190.9.8 million in pro-rated money in the 2020 season, 21.2 more than the next closest team. They have $122.2.3 million in the form of restructure bonuses. That's $66 million more than the Buccaneers who are number two in the league. This is the most kick the cap, kick the can down the road, extend the cap. We're always competing. We're always contending team in the entire world. They do it independent of anything. And now they're going to shell out for Derek Carr, who's like the poster child for
Starting point is 00:20:16 don't convince yourself that you can win it all with like a B to C to your quarterback like the car is the poster child for this the Saints like Saints fans always like to laugh and say like oh everybody always gets so upset and so worried about the cap look at the Saints
Starting point is 00:20:33 they get to kick down the can every year ha ha we win you're not winning this is not winning this is bad this is irresponsible you have to eventually take your lumps and Derek Carr is the opposite of taking your lump don't do this all right let me say one thing
Starting point is 00:20:46 about Carr and then I have a follow-up question for you before because I don't know exactly how to respond until I get the follow-up question answers. So first of all with Carr, listen, if you listen to extra point taken, you knew a month ago, I told you no one should trade for Derek Carr. The Raiders are trying to create a market. If you are a team that trades for Derek Carr, now I'm not going to say this, like definitely because we don't know what you give up. You should not do this. They have to release Derek Carr three days after the Super Bowl. He has a no trade clause. They cannot keep him on the roster. Do you want to give up? assets for the right to pay Derek Carr $38 million per year. That is not something you should want
Starting point is 00:21:22 to do. You should chill. You want to add Derek Carr. That's fine. You'll have a chance. They will release him unless one of you teams get suckered. Do not be the sucker and trade for Derek Carr. Told you that a month ago. All right. Now, your whole Saints rant there. I need to know, like, are you operating, okay, so you're operating as Benjamin Solac, objective football analyst say, This is what the Saints should do in the long term to eventually be a team that can compete for a Super Bowl, correct? Yeah. Okay.
Starting point is 00:21:55 But Mickey Loomis is their GM. And that is not the world in which they operate in. They operate in a world of how can we make our team the best it can be next year so that we can maybe get into the playoffs and see what happens. I agree with you. If the goal is to eventually win a Super Bowl, then adding Derek Carr would not be wise. I just told you they absolutely should not trade for Derek Carr. However, if you're operating in a Mickey Loomis world and how the Saints have typically operated and you look at next year and Derek Carr becomes available three days after the Super Bowl and you say, man, the NFC South sucks here. Yes, Derek Carr is not the greatest quarterback in the world, but he is a solid veteran quarterback. We have a solid offensive. wine. We have Chris Olave. Maybe we add one more weapon. Hey, maybe we can win the NFC South next year, go 10 and 7, make the playoffs. That would be a fun season for our fans. That is the world in which they operate it. So if they're operating in that world, then I think Derrick Carr is a reasonable move. If they're operating in a world where they eventually want to compete for Super Bowls and have
Starting point is 00:23:09 sustained success and have flexibility and all that stuff, then no, they should not add Derrick I don't know where that leaves you. So, well, firstly, you should always assume at all times. I'm operating under the paradigm of teams should try to win Super Bowls. That's usually where my logic comes from. I'm never going to be like, all right, well, the other 31 teams, this would be a bad decision. But because the Saints just get to do it they want. And we're like, oh, look at our cute risk-taking team down.
Starting point is 00:23:35 Look at how they ignore money. Look at how irresponsible. But teams do have different goals. Sometimes teams are like, we want to make the playoffs next year. That's awesome. Tell me about the Saints' Playoff appearances these last two seasons
Starting point is 00:23:48 without your breeze. Yeah, that's two seasons, but that's still what they're trying to. How about this? How about if you're a Saints fan? If you're a Saints fan and you're like, you know what? I like to enjoy my Sundays.
Starting point is 00:23:58 I like three hours where maybe the product will be kind of entertaining and maybe we'll compete and maybe we'll make the playoffs. And next year, if we add Derek Carr, maybe that's something we can do.
Starting point is 00:24:08 I don't care about having a chance to win a Super Bowl in the year, 2027, because I might be dead then. Okay. Sorry, this got dark. Yeah. Yeah, that's great for that hypothetical Saints fan brushing up against his mortality, the fleetingness of my shedding off the mortal coil, you know, moving to hedonism. But for Gail Benson and Saints ownership, okay, like, listen, if you want to go that way, whatever. Like, if you're about doing fun things, selling tickets, like,
Starting point is 00:24:38 all right, you're making money, Benson family. That's one. less team in the NFC that my Eagles have to contend with. I'm chilling. Sounds great for me. I reserve the right to three to four times a year, get on a show slash article, and yell about the fact that the Saints aren't trying, right? I mean, like, it's, because here's the thing. It's like, you're bringing up this hypothetical Saints fan who just wants to have a good time.
Starting point is 00:25:01 Firstly, I would love to if we have more time interrogate the idea of, quote, Derek Carr is a good time, end quote, but that's a separate conversation. I think there's a large portion of Saints fans who go, oh, Heck yes, Derek Carr. Oh, look at us. We're kicking the cap again. Oh, look at us. We're contending again.
Starting point is 00:25:16 Oh, we're the Saints were so good. They don't view it as, oh, this is fun. They view it as, yeah, we're a Super Bowl team every year. And that's now you're selling
Starting point is 00:25:23 a false bill of goods. And that bothers me too. So, okay, whatever. If we want to live in this, this construction of like, Saints are just having fun, fine. I reserve the right to get pissed off
Starting point is 00:25:31 about that because I like for teams to try to win Super Bowls. Yeah. I mean, to be fair, I don't think they should add Derek Carr. I knew even the, When the moment you brought it up, I was like, she was just devil's advocating his stupid little,
Starting point is 00:25:43 everybody's about having fun football take. I do think it's obvious that they're, that they are not operating in a world where they're saying our eventual goal is to compete for Super Bowls. I mean, everything they've done since, you know, in the last two years and kind of how delusional they've been in a post-Shon-Paeton era and a post-Drew Breeze era would tell us that. So I agree with you there.
Starting point is 00:26:04 I don't, I disagree. I don't think it's that clear. I think they think this is the, this is Super Bowl. I think this is champions of stuff. I believe that. Yeah. Really? And I think they're wrong. Then they're very delusional. What's your third topic? Because I'm debating between two here.
Starting point is 00:26:18 I want to go in the right order. I have two takes left. I have a draft take. And I have a Panthers take. All right. I'm going to save my Panthers take for the next one. You do your Panthers take next. And then I'll come back all over the top with my panthers take. So I'm going to go to my other take. And we talked about the Broncos last week. And you know what? I spent some time thinking about this. I think Sean Payton was the best case scenario if you're a Broncos fan.
Starting point is 00:26:40 We kicked around all these scenarios last week. And yes, my off-season rule is don't fall in love. But at the same time, if you are the Broncos, and we don't know how great their process was, as you wrote about, on the ringer. But as we've discussed on the show, sometimes you get owners get lucky with the coaches they hire, or sometimes they get unlucky with the coaches they hire. That's part of it.
Starting point is 00:27:03 And so if you're a Broncos fan, you just had a horrible season. you know, you had expectations. The expectations were doomed from the get-go. Your coach was a complete disaster. Your quarterback, it feels like you got completely fleeced by the Seattle Seahawks. And so what can you hope for? Now, they could have brought in, you know, some coordinator or Shane Steichen type, and you say, okay, maybe this guy can be good.
Starting point is 00:27:25 But Sean Payton, like, he probably still doesn't get the due he deserves. I mean, this guy is one of the best head coaches in the NFL in the last 20, 25 years. years when you look at what he did with the stance and one of the best offensive minds in the NFL during that span. I mean, they had a top 10 offense 12 times in 15 years in New Orleans with Sean Payton. I know they had Drew Brees. I understand they had Drew Brees. Russell Wilson is not like, you know, playing quarterback with one hand tied behind your back. He might be shot. Yes. He might be in steep decline. Yes. But he's also somebody who's quarterback top 10 offenses eight times intense seasons with the Seahawks. So is there a scenario where Wilson just falls completely off a cliff?
Starting point is 00:28:11 Yes, it's possible. He's 34 years old. Is there a scenario where Sean Payton isn't the same coach he was in New Orleans? Yes, that's possible. But if you're a Broncos fan, you say, we gave up all this stuff for Russell Wilson. Let's just give it one. Let's give it one more shot. Let's give it one more season. If Russell and stinks in 2023. We know we still have no easy way out, but we can explore our options then. And so I think Sean Payton gives them competence. I think he gives them a high ceiling. I mean, this is somebody who has a winning percentage of 631 in his career. I mean, that's like Andy Reid, Mike Tomlin territory. And so I think you're a Broncos spin, like you're not saying, yeah, we're going to go out there and win the Super Bowl and beat Patrick Mahomes in the AFC West next year.
Starting point is 00:28:56 but the bar is lowered after what we saw last year. Can you compete? Can you possibly be a playoff team? Can Sean Payton bring some respectability back to the franchise? Can he squeeze out whatever is left of Russell Wilson's talent at this stage of his career? And I think that that's a possibility. And the other thing is like, we have to look at Wilson. He wanted to be traded from Seattle.
Starting point is 00:29:19 He wanted to be a certain type of quarterback. He wanted to be thought of as like one of the greats of this era. Well, last year was a rude awakening. If you bring in some unknown, some first time head coach, Russell Wilson is still going to sort of, you know, as we would say back in the day, have the hand in that relationship. But now, whether he's humbled or not, like, this is Sean Peyton.
Starting point is 00:29:38 Like, you have to listen to what Sean Payton is going to say or you're not going to be there that long. Like now you're in a scenario. Last year, there was no doubt. Russell Wilson was like, who's more important? Me or Nathaniel Hackett to the franchise. Right. That was pretty easy to answer.
Starting point is 00:29:52 2023, no, sorry. If this doesn't work for you, Sean Payton just signed a contract, he's going to be the guy. So I feel like Broncos fans during this pod probably for the last four months, you know, we've never really had anything nice to say about them. And to their credit, they've had nothing nice to say about their franchise. Now, at least I think you have a little bit of hope. Russell Wilson, Pete Carroll takes.
Starting point is 00:30:17 Right. We were on the show and we were like, this Broncos thing is a mess. And one of the things that we talked about was like, don't let it be that sense. you can't make a splash, you go and you try to make a bigger splash and try to make a splash as possible. And then like 12 hours later, they traded a first and a second for Sean Payton and presumably gave him like an enormous contract. I think my concerns with Payton to the Broncos has a lot more to do with ownership's process than it does with the end result, which is Sean Payton being the head coach of the Broncos. I agree with you that that sentence, Sean Payton is
Starting point is 00:30:51 the head coach of the Broncos, is generally great news, right? Payton's a really, really, good coach, really good coach. I do think that his clout has a chance to knock Wilson back onto a path where he can be a functional quarterback in his 30s. I'm not guaranteed it's going to happen. I'm not convinced. The more I learn about Russ, the more I think Pete Carroll's a wizard. And it's especially tricky because it's not like
Starting point is 00:31:15 Russ came in as a third round pick and won the job and like Carol kind of shirp at him through that whole process. The bridges are already like very burnt. very toasted in Denver. We're like a lot of the locker room already is not like this guy. So Payton's fighting from downhill, whereas like Carol's kind of fighting from uphill and just in terms of like the Russell Wilson arc overall. So I'm not fully sold that Carol will like fix that,
Starting point is 00:31:40 but they can get out of Russ's deal at the end of next season. It'll cost $39 million in 2024 and $45 million in 2025, but they can do it. And then you move on from there. The tricky thing is that if you have to move on from there, now you're getting a new quarterback for Peyton, and you're doing it with low cap, because of the dead cap hit, and you're doing it with not as many draft picks
Starting point is 00:31:59 because the draft picks you trade it for Sean Payton. And that's where, like, again, like the process starts to be challenging for me. It's like, okay, like I agree Peyton being the head coach of the Broncos, overall good. I do think that losing a first and a future second after you'd already lost future first for trading for Russ is bad. And you really, really need Peyton's replacement value over alternative. Replacement value over Shane Steichen.
Starting point is 00:32:23 replacement value over Brian Callahan, replacement value over Lou Anorumo, replacing value over Adiro Evaro. You really need that to be a big difference in order to have justified sending those picks when you have already sent picks for Russ and when you really, really desperately need picks because you have to get rookies on this team
Starting point is 00:32:40 that can contribute because of what your cap's going to look like in the next couple years if he doesn't fix Russ. So it was in a possible situation. It was tough. There was nothing that was going to be perfect because Russ kind of put them there. But I do think that the entire Broncos process of like Harbaugh to Payton to
Starting point is 00:32:56 Demiko Ryan's to visiting Harbaugh and Ann Arbor to calling Demico the day they hired Sean Payton and he had already committed to the Texan being like no please please please come to us like that's very worrisome I don't feel great about Broncos ownership but if Payton's that dude and there's a good chance he's that dude where there's all water under the bridge so Payton being that goes to Bronco is good everything else around how he got there
Starting point is 00:33:20 maybe not so good yeah it's still not a great situation and still not a high likelihood that this is going to turn out great. But given the bad situation you were in, I think if you're a Broncos fan, you're saying, all right, we can live with this outcome. We have a very good coach. Let's hope he's still got his fastball. Let's hope he's still, you know, whether it's next year or the year after that
Starting point is 00:33:39 can turn us around a little bit after the season we just had. Panthers time? Yeah, let's do it. All right. Let's see if we have the same one here, let's say. Should we say it on three and see if we said in the exact same words? No, no, no, no, no. Just say yours.
Starting point is 00:33:56 I'll tell you if it's the same one. That would be confusing to the listener. I am buying Panther stock in 2023. That's my take is I am in on the way the Panthers have done this. I look at how this new Broncos ownership group is kind of like tried to be flashy, like made some big moves. Obviously, the rush traders before them, but still like kind of new ownership group figuring out their footing.
Starting point is 00:34:16 And then I look at this Panthers ownership and Dave Tepper who like came in, made the big splash, get Sam Darnold and, you know, Matt Rule, seven-year contract, tons of guarantees. I'm going to build a new facility. Like, here we go. And then that was kind of a nightmare. And now, Frank Reich is a head coach. That's that, like, he's a winning head coach. He won in Indianapolis with a variety of quarterbacks. Frank Reich is a good, solid head coach. I believe that firmly. And I think Reich very easily could have taken the Doug Peterson route, taken a year off,
Starting point is 00:34:47 come back next season and been like a really, really nice candidate for his pick of jobs. And which, like, Doug didn't get that. But like, I think Wright could have been a really strong candidate and keeping him from retirement and grabbing him in Carolina to me is a great sign. They just announced today as a recording on Monday, or Sunday, excuse me, the hiring of a Giro Evero, DC from the Broncos. Love this young man. I think is a really good defensive coach. They get him to a personnel grouping that's different than they had in Denver.
Starting point is 00:35:11 It's going to be a challenge. You're going to have to change some stuff. But in general, man, like J.C. Horn doing your Patrick Sertan stuff. Yes, sir. That'll work for me. Jeremy Chin, doing some of your Justin's stuff, playing more second level than third level, but still. Brian Burns doing some of the outside rush stuff.
Starting point is 00:35:27 Yep, that'll play for me. Like there's, there are pieces here that are translatable. Shaq Thompson's a better linebacker than anything Evereux had in Denver and he was getting great play out of those linebackers. Derek Brown? Yeah, so Derek Brown is interesting
Starting point is 00:35:38 because integral player to the Broncos was DJ Jones. Nose tackle, gone up from San Francisco, eat the gaps. Derek Brown's not really that player, right?
Starting point is 00:35:50 But the player that the Broncos would use as their three tech, as their penetration tackle is Draymont Jones. It's like long, lean. Not really Derek Brown. I'm very interested to see how he uses Derek Brown. I have no read on that right now. I'll be curious to see what he says when he has availability.
Starting point is 00:36:05 People are like worried because like he, like he ran a big Fangio 3-4 and now he's going to bring a 3-4 to Carolina and it's got to match their personnel. He doesn't really run a 3-4. Like it's they don't run a lot of 3 down fronts. It's, it's nomenclature stuff. So he's going to get Derek Brown into penetration, I'm just curious if he feels like he's got to be an under tackle for him and play over that center or if he's going to be that overtack will be that three tech, that pass rusher. So I'm curious about Derek Brown. But overall, like the pieces that make sense for Ebro. Frank Reagan Ebro is just a nice, that's a solid coaching staff. I believe in that. They got tons of talent on the defensive side of the ball. They have a star receiver in DJ Moore. They have Terrence Marshall, who I thought was coming along this season. They have a really steady offensive line for the five starters back under contract. And the fifth one had time playing this season because the interjured center, Bradley Bowman. So,
Starting point is 00:36:53 this is a great environment. Just get a young quarterback, something that Frank Reich has not really had, right? Frank Reich was a big part of the development of Carson Wednesday, and wins in Philadelphia, and then he goes to Indianapolis, never really got a young QB,
Starting point is 00:37:05 get a young quarterback, plug him in. First six weeks of the season, he's making mistakes, he's throwing picks, he'll lose in the fourth quarter, that season starts to come to a close. CJ Stroud starts to settle in.
Starting point is 00:37:17 I am buying Panther stock for the 23 season. What's your Panthers' stake? Well, I was wondering, where you were going to go with, get a young quarterback. Because, I mean, that's like a pretty big, you know, thing hanging out there. Get, yeah, get a young quarterback. That would be nice.
Starting point is 00:37:33 So my take, and maybe we can, we might disagree on like the last part of this. But the Panthers should absolutely trade up to number one and draft their quarterback. I have Bryce Young. Yes. As that quarterback, if you think it's C.J. Stroud, that, that's fine. I'm not, you know, you are much more in the. Not only is. this, I agree.
Starting point is 00:37:55 I had part of this down on my notes, but this also dovetails into my draft take at the end. So we are cooking. Shield, we are in Super Bowl form. We are a well-low machine. All right. So here's the case of why now is the right time. I agree with everything you said.
Starting point is 00:38:08 Rike and Everrell, that is competent. You know, I'm not saying that every offense Reich ran in Indianapolis was fantastic. They had the quarterback carousel. They've made some bad quarterback decisions, but I think he's a good offensive coach. I think he's a good overall head coach Everow.
Starting point is 00:38:24 I mean, he did a fantastic job with the Broncos last year, and you look at the premium talent. I mean, the premium positions you want to fill on a roster, left tackle, they drafted Equano, cornerback, one, they drafted J.C. Horton, Edge. They have Brian Burns, defensive tackle. They have Derek Brown. These are all guys at like 24 to 28 years old. These are not old guys.
Starting point is 00:38:47 They're in like three years. Going to be terrible. Right now, love it. There's got so many good guys on rookie contracts. It's great. They can just call Mickey Loomis. He'll help them out when that time comes. DJ Moore, again, wide receiver one.
Starting point is 00:39:01 Like, you, to fill all those premium positions with young, talented players, and these aren't like guys who you're just like wishing on. I mean, we saw what J.C. Horn could do. Like, maybe Aquana, you say, all right, he's got to develop a little bit. We know what Horn can do. We know what more can do. We know what Brian Burns can do. So I think the time is now to take that big swing.
Starting point is 00:39:20 I mean, you can mess around with a deal. Derek Carr or Jimmy Garoppel. But you don't want to have Indianapolis Colts version 2.0 in Carolina. You don't want to repeat of that situation where every one, two, three years, you're looking for your quarterback. You have the ninth overall pick right now. So you look at the 49ers. They traded up for Tray Lance.
Starting point is 00:39:41 They gave up 12. They moved up to three. They gave up an additional two first and a third. So that's kind of the compensation you're looking at. The Panthers would still have. three top 100 picks. They would have 40, 62, and 94. Don't forget they got some picks
Starting point is 00:39:57 from that Christian McCaffrey trade. And you would be positioned from day one, Bryce Young. Don't have to think about it. Bryce Young is your quarterback. You've got the pieces around him. Build this thing. By the way, NFC South completely wide open.
Starting point is 00:40:12 I mean, this does not have to take a very long time. If Frank Reich is the offensive coach, we think he is. If Bryce Young is as talented as I think he is, you just add a little piece here and there, and this can look totally different in 2023. You can absolutely turn around your franchise. So no one likes to give up, you know, multiple first round picks,
Starting point is 00:40:34 but at some point, you have to take that swing and why wait a year? Now with the time you're 9th, I mean, if you win Gavis next year, you're not going to have 9 to trade. Now all of a sudden you're trying to trade from 19, and that becomes a lot harder. And now all of a sudden, all those players you talked about, they've already told another year on their contract. And maybe the draft is as good.
Starting point is 00:40:56 Maybe it's not as good. You don't know what it's going to look like at the top of the draft next year. You don't know if those teams are going to need quarterback next year. Now you know if what we believe about the Bears is true that the number one, the team with the number one pick is looking to get out of the number one pick and gain some draft capital for it. This is a trade that makes sense. This is a trade I would like to see the Panthers make. And I think I would absolutely be in favor of them doing it. Yeah. Okay. Now, you're a big Bryce Young guy. I want to, I want to, I want to, I, I'm, I want to protect you. I want to, I support that for you. I love that for you. This from Theo Ash of the stay hot podcast. The height of every starting quarterback, Frank Reich has coached. Payne Manning, 6.5. Philip River 6.5. Carson Wentz, 6.5. Nick Foles, 6, 6. Andrew Lutz. 6. 4. Rivers again, Wentz again, Matt Ryan, 6, 6. I don't know if Frank's going to like Bryce Young.
Starting point is 00:41:49 I mean, but a lot of those were like, who is available at this time. Frank Reich did not handpick all those quarterbacks and say, I'm choosing them over a short quarterback. Yeah. Right. But it is to say that, that Reich's entire development of his offense has been pretty conditional on the guy being able to see over the line on a three-step drop from gun. And I don't know if Bryce Young can do that. And that's where, like, you know, I just, like, you know, this is not the take. I just want to, as I decide, prepare you as a big Bryce young guy for that sort of a situation.
Starting point is 00:42:19 for anybody watching at home. CJ shroud 6'3, Will Levin' 6'33 so nobody's really like, you know, 6'4. But either way, it's something to watch for. I very much agree that the Panthers are a great trade-up for one team.
Starting point is 00:42:31 If you made me guess right now who trades up to one, I think I probably still take Indy because of the Jalen Carter and Will Anderson of it all, right? If the Bears trade outside of like the top four, they're not going to get Jalen Carter, the defense of tackle out of Georgia,
Starting point is 00:42:46 and Will Anderson, the pass rush out of Alabama. Both those two guys will not be on the board. And they trade back to four is a good chance at least one of those two guys is. And those are the two blue chippers in this draft. Those are the two like, hey, we might be getting indomac and sue right here. We might be getting a franchise changing defensive tackle, right? And that is hard to pass up on it. They go to move to the Panthers at nine. They are electing to move out of that group. So I think I'd still take Indy if I had to guess. But the Panthers are right there.
Starting point is 00:43:12 Right number two is the team. It just, it makes sense. They have an extra second round pick this year, an actual fourth round pick this year, as a result of the Christian McAfree trade, which they obviously made it at this past deadline. Other than that, they're holding on to all their their future picks. So they are loaded up nicely to make this move. And I do think that one of the things that Reich would have said in his interviews is talking about how important it's going to be for him to get a young quarterback. Like, I think if Reich didn't get the vibe from the Panthers that they wanted to go young quarterback, I'm not sure Reich takes the job. Because Reich's got to be burned on these veterans.
Starting point is 00:43:46 There's no way Reich was going to take a team where they were like, we're thinking about Derek Carr. I'm not doing this again. That's a feel thing. It's not like he knows that explicitly, but that's just my read. So I very much agree. Panthers are a good team to trade up for a rookie quarterback. I think they're a good spot to develop that rookie quarterback.
Starting point is 00:44:03 With Frank Reich, we don't really know his offensive coaching staff yet, but with Frank Reich and with the pieces that they have. This brings me to my extra point taken because we're so good at this shield. I think the bears are going to have, some difficulty getting the price tag that they want for the first overall pick. You brought it up. What it's been reported, we are to believe, and what's been reported is that the bears are comfortable with Justin Fields, they're going to have them as their starter entering 2023, and they're going
Starting point is 00:44:32 to trade this first overall pick. I believe that. From what I've been told, my read on the tea leaves, I think, yeah, bears are Justin Fields for sure, and they're going to trade them one overall pick. That obviously weakens their position a little bit. It would have been nice that got out like a month from now instead of getting out right now, but it's out right now. There's another thing that weakens their position a little bit.
Starting point is 00:44:50 This is, again, like my read on the class and also what I'm led to believe by talking to people in the draft space was in Mobile this past week, whatever. When I go to talk about these quarterbacks at the top, Bryce Young, Seeder Stroud, Will Levis, and even Anthony Richardson, the young man out of Florida, who's probably going to be a first round pick as well,
Starting point is 00:45:07 I always end up saying, like, I like all of them. I just don't know if I love one of them. I really don't mind any of them. There's not a single guy. Like when Zach Wilson went two overall, I was like, this is bad. This is not good. There's not a single one of these guys. If that happened, one of them goes top five, I'd go, this is horrible.
Starting point is 00:45:22 This is bad. This is a franchise crippling decision. I like them all. There's not a single one, though, that I'm like, hey, sell the farm, move the house, get up to number one. And as a result of that, that sentiment that this class is generally equal, something that I think is reflecting in how the league views them, at least at this time, that makes it. it difficult to move off the first overall pick? Because Houston's at two, and the
Starting point is 00:45:48 Colts are at four, and the Panthers are at nine, and everybody's trying to figure out who likes who the most, and nobody really knows. I don't think it's going to be clear that there's going to be a consensus one, two, three ranking. I think Houston, this is that Nick Assyria O'Brien, or excuse me, Bill Belichick, GM, really, really oriented on keeping stuff close to the vest.
Starting point is 00:46:09 Right? Last year, like, nobody had the Texans on Derek Stinglin, until like 48 hours beforehand, right? No one was near that until draft week. They play things very close to the best. D'emico Ryan's the head coach there. I can't list for you the heights of the starting quarterbacks or D'emico Rions because Domingo Ryan is a defensive coach with no background quarterbacks, right? So we can't try to prognosticate.
Starting point is 00:46:29 It's to be very hard to figure out who the Texans like it too. And like even the Bryce Young situation overall makes things really tricky because it's not like, oh, some teams are going to have him one and some teams are going to have him two and some things I have him three. There's going to be some teams that have him, 1,000. They are not going to draft a player of his size, period. And then other teams will draft a player of his size. And then you have to figure out where they have him ranked. So this is a very challenging quarterback class to figure out who likes who and who likes them where. And that's
Starting point is 00:46:55 going to hurt the bears. It's going to make things tough. Because if we knew the Texans wanted C.J. Stroud at 2, then yeah, sure, like maybe the Panthers would be out because they don't want Stroud. But if the Colts really like him, then you can really leverage the Colts. You can hammer him. You can say, you will not get this player unless you get this pick. Now with a very occluded class, it would be some deft general managing. It'd be some really good work on the phone lines. If polls can I think drum up a really active market for one overall, before like a couple weeks before the draft. And that's where I think it'll get really tough to really put the screws to a team, really force them to trade that big money. I look back at like when the Colts moved
Starting point is 00:47:33 from three back to six with the Jets in the 2018 draft, they traded, the Jets traded a first, a second, and then two future sec. A first and two. A first and two. future seconds, I think it was, move on from six to three. And I went back and I looked at articles from that draft. And it was like, yep, the Colts, the Jets have moved from six to three, you're going to position themselves to make a move on the quarterback class. Don't really know who they're going to take yet. We think the Browns are going to take Sam Darnold. They might still take Josh Allen, though. Nobody knew. This was in March after the combine. Nobody knew who was going where. And the Jets just kind of moved up just to be in the range. And then they kind of had to just sit and
Starting point is 00:48:07 wait and see how the class was going to come to them. I think it's going to be tough for the bears to really get a strong market for one overall until like maybe in like just the weeks before the draft. It's going to take good GMing for them to get, I think, a really good value for that pick. So I agree with you that this will, this is a fun draft because I do think that quarterback board will look different based on the team, which is, I don't know, it is unusual. It's, you know, there have been other years where that's the case, but it's not every year. However, I'm looking at the ice. All it takes is one desperate team. And I see so much. desperate teams this year. I mean, how can you look at the Colts at number four and not think
Starting point is 00:48:47 they're going to do something nuts after the quarterbacks they've played for the last five years, after the way their owner has operated, after the way they're holding press conferences saying, yeah, we're ready to do something. They're basically telling you they're ready to do something nuts at quarterback. Now, I hear what you're saying. Do they say, well, we're at four. And is Chris Ballard convinced Jim Mersey, no, let's just chill. We might have a shot here. Maybe. But I think that teams will not be like, hey, we can't decide which quarterback we like. Teams will say, this is our guy. This is the, and you're not trading to two.
Starting point is 00:49:19 So there's no risk. Like, if you trade to two and you don't know what one's going to do or you don't know if something's going to trade into one, then it's tough. In many ways, this is like a very advantageous situation if you're looking to trade up because there is no uncertainty. You trade up, you do what it takes, and then you get the guy you have first on your board who teams might feel the same way. you do, but I feel stronger that there will be teams that say, yes, we are in love with
Starting point is 00:49:46 quarterback X. I don't know who that guy is. I don't know if it's shroud. I don't know if it's young, which guy it's going to be. But I think there will be a team that falls in love. I think there will be multiple teams in the market for that pick because it's just, it's just so rare that the number one team with the number one overall pick is looking to trade down. There are good quarterbacks available. You are a quarterback needy team. Like sometimes you just got to look at all those factors and decide and pound. So I disagree that the bear, I think the bears are in a fine spot. I think they will get a nice compensation, market compensation, similar to what we've seen in previous years from other teams in that spot. But we'll say maybe you'll end up being right
Starting point is 00:50:25 and teams will be a little more discipline and patient and weight. So here's the thing. I don't think they're going to struggle to get off the pick. I think if, I think they're going to have offers of the pick, no question. I do think that it might be tough for them to like, like, like, You know, I've seen, like, you know, draft value charts and I've seen, you know, like hypothetical trades. And it seems like there's a big gap between what, like, some value charts suggest they might get, what they actually like what teams, what like Bears fans and Bears media is hoping that they get. Like, I go back and I look at, you know, like you bring up that Trey Lance pick. You're going from 12 to 3.
Starting point is 00:51:03 That's multiple first round picks. I think if you're the Bears, you're looking at that and go from four to one, like, we want multiple first. Like this is the first ever pick Like you said, this is control of the draft And I'm not sure If they take multiple firsts to the Colts The Colts are going to say yes right away I agree with you that the Colts are desperate
Starting point is 00:51:21 And the Colts might end up saying yes Because at this point There's nothing in the world You could tell me Jim Ursay could do And I would be like, no So again like I think they'll get there On trading the pick
Starting point is 00:51:36 And getting a deal that they feel good about But I don't think this is going to be big bidding war. I don't think this is going to be drive the price up. And like, again, same thing. I don't think they're going to be able to put the screws to like, hey, Dave Temper's on the line. Hey, Chris Ballots on the line. We know you like Stroud. Everybody knows the Texans are taking shroud. Give us the farmer. You don't get them. I'm not sure they get that scenario. And if they get it, they're going to get it very close to draft day. And that's just going to be sweaty. It's going to be really sweaty for the bears. Be holding on that pick,
Starting point is 00:52:02 April 23rd. And just, that's going to, that is, that is you are staring down a moving car. Like that's where this this gets tough. And so I, like, if I were to predict right now, I would say they move with the Colts. I would say they get like a future first and then something else. And I think the trade happens in April. And that's my current read. And then we'll see how things go. Again, like, I have not been super impressed by Ryan Poles's tenure less far.
Starting point is 00:52:31 Like, you know, like Rope-Smith trade, Chase Claypool trade, like the huge sell on the cap. Like, I, like, I'm, I'm, jury still out for me on, on the Bears front office. You want to get like a big feather in Ben's cap, which obviously is how you win Super Bowls is me liking what you do. Handle this and get yourself at King's Ransom for this pick. I think that'd be really well done. So I'm, I'm, this is such a cool. First up, we got like two and a half months of this pick and this trade market. And it's going to be a lot of chess moves on the board.
Starting point is 00:52:58 I'm, I'm really excited. Yeah, we said it when the Texas moved out of that, out of that top pick, this is going to make for a more fun two or three months. because not only do we not know who's going number one, we don't know who's picking number one, we don't know who's going to trade up for number one. So we can talk all about it in the weeks and months ahead. Listen, here's the good news. Last week, I was like the Broncos, you know, this staff,
Starting point is 00:53:23 this shouldn't pursue Sean Payton, don't get crazy. Just do your interviews, hire some guy, and then like 12 hours later, Sean Payton. So Bears fans, you're hearing this, buddy. You're about to get four first for number one. We're moving. Coulter attack. So, you know, it's, it's proved Ben wrong offseason.
Starting point is 00:53:38 Don't forget, Ben, it was only a week ago. I said, Tom Brady will be the started quarterback for the San Francisco 49ers in week one. So, yeah, we don't claim to know what we're talking about. We just fire off and takes. Oh, yeah, we're going to run here on this pod. I'm just immediately being totally disproven. That is the point of the show.
Starting point is 00:53:56 All right. This was fun. Thank you to Benjamin Solac. Thank you to Christopher Sutton and for producing additional production supervision by Conor Nevins and our Jewish. Ram Gopal, the Ringer NFL crew will be in Glendale, Arizona for the week. This feed will be filled with your regularly scheduled program. So check it out every day.
Starting point is 00:54:18 We will have you covered there and also on the ringer.com. I will be back Thursday with the scramble. Thanks to everyone for listening. And we will talk to you next week on Extra Point Day.

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