The Ringer NFL Show - Division Winners, Wild Card Teams, and a Super Bowl Champion | The Ringer NFL Show

Episode Date: September 7, 2020

The Ringer’s Kevin Clark is joined by Nora Princiotti, Kaelen Jones, and Danny Kelly to pick division winners (3:48), which teams will get the wild-card spots (66:06), and a Super Bowl champion (69:17).  Host: Kevin Clark  Guest: Nora Princiotti, Kaelen Jones, and Danny Kelly Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Felt Show, part of the Ringer Podcast Network. I am Kevin Clark. joined today for a very fun show by Nora Prince, DiChalan Jones, and Danny Kelly, all of the ringer.com. Purpose of this episode is to get on the record for our picks for the 2020 season, every division winner, wildcard team, Super Bowl participants, and winner. One housekeeping note, we recorded this to the beginning of the weekend. We did not know at that point that Chedebion Clowny was going to be a Tennessee Titan, signing a one-year deal worth up to $15 million.

Luckily, we baked in some of the Clownie possibilities into the show. You will hear that. because we talked about him a bit in the New Orleans Saints section, it's important to note that their quest to sign Clowny, even though they didn't have the money to do so, might be the highlight of the football weekend. So the NFL Network reported that the Saints were going to find a middle team, middle man, middle team, whatever you want to call it,

likely the Cleveland Browns. They referred to them as Team X in the report. And Team X was going to sign Clowny, pay him $5 million, trade him to the Saints. The Saints were going to give him the rest about $10 million. and the Saints were going to ship a draft pick to Team X. This is very Saints. If you took the names out of this report,

you'd probably guess that it was the Saints and the Browns were talking about this. The Browns obviously under different regime to the Brock Osweiler trade, which was a similar pick for cash relief trade, although extremely different than this scenario, but still kind of the same genre of trade. Unfortunately, for all of us,

the NFL said that they, They probably wouldn't have approved the deal, at least on Sunday. Who knows how that change is going forward. The good news is, is it all of our jokes about the saints that we made at the beginning of the weekend in this show about their cap creativity and how they move money around those age very well. So anyway, onto the show. Join today by Danny Kelly, Kaelin Jones, and Noah Principiati for our NFL predictions episode. Danny, Messi staying at Barcelona. Are you shook?

that's amazing. It's amazing news. I don't follow European soccer or, well, any soccer, really, but that's why I asked you. It's exciting. It's exciting. I was very shocked when he, when he threatened to leave and then seems like they made up. No, it was that he has a contract clause. So now he's just sitting in his house giving interviews and dropping heaters on the president of the team. It's a, it's a good situation. All right. Very fun, very cool episode that we love doing every year. We're just going to pick every division and the Super Bowl participants and the winner. I think we should just get right into it. I don't think there's a lot of complications here.

We will start with maybe, maybe the most complicated division during all of this. It's the AFC East who have the greatest coach in history, a quarterback who at his peak is one of the most talented players in football, but we don't know how close to his peak he is. a rebuilding Dolphins team that won some games that it shouldn't have. And the Buffalo Bills, very good roster. The New York Jets who are the New York Jets. Nor Princiotti, who's winning this division? The Buffalo Bills. Caelin Jones.

The Buffalo Bills. Danny Kelly. Oh, I got the bills too. Holy cow. Oh, my God. We're so weak. We are such weak people. All right.

We're going to, if we all vaporized into mist, it was Bill Belichick. Oh my God. Exactly. We all had to hold hands here and jump to not pick the Patriots. This is us. This is solidarity here. Norr, Princiotti, you know this division better than anybody. What's the tiebreaker between the Patriots and the bills for you?

Well, you know what? I'm not going to say whether or not the opt-outs were really the thing that did it for me. They were for me. I'm trying not to be pulverized. and pulverized into mist, but the combination of the fact that two good defenses between the Patriots and the bills, right? But the bills relied a lot less heavily on turnovers than the Patriots did. So seemingly already less of a candidate for some defensive regression there. And then you add in how badly the Patriots got hit with the opt-outs and point bills.

Kaelin Jones, same question. Tie-breaker between those two. teams. I think it's just the small difference between Josh Allen being a below average quarterback to an average quarterback. If you look at his statistics, it's crazy. Like career, he is, so last year he went 9 and 0 in games where he completed 60% or more of his passes. And for his career, he's 4 and 12 when he misses that mark, when he completes under 60% of his past. So literally just a marginal increase in literally completion percentage. I mean, that's a very small stat to really care about. But I mean, literally just Josh Allen taking a very small step. I don't think you can overstate how much that can help the Buffalo bills as far as, you know, again, competing with

the Patriots. We saw all they pushed them last year for all the points that Nora mentioned. Like, I think that the bills have the roster for it. I think this is their zone. That's the point for me is the bills have the roster for this. And when I think about these two teams. And again, I would not be surprised if the Patriots would be the third best team in the AFC this year. Nothing the Patriots can do can surprise me. But if I'm running this and if I'm doing the Dr. Strange one billion simulations thing, I've seen what this Bill's team looks like with Josh Allen playing like Josh Allen, even if he doesn't get better. We've seen them be pretty good because they've a pretty good roster, an offensive coordinator who knows how to put Josh Allen

in vaguely positions to succeed. I think Brian Dable is a very good offensive coordinator. I think that Stefan Diggs' edition is huge. And I just think if there's nothing, nothing that happens. When I look at how to predict the season, I look at what has to go right, what's the pathway, do they need 20 things to go right, if they need a thousand things to go right? And how likely is that the quarterback edition being a huge thing that has to go right for New England? And I think that, you know, again, the roster is just not there after the opt-outs. The defense is always going to be there because of Belichick, but it's just not going to be the same level of talent.

So I've seen Buffalo and what this can look like. I have not seen New England and what this can look like. And I trust Bill Belichick to, I mean, the most ridiculous narrative of this season was that the Patriots ran tank. They were going to get Trevor Lawrence. Like, no, Bill Belichick is going to game plan every single week. And even if you think, even if this team starts out like, you know, two and four or whatever and looks bad, they're still going to be the biggest threat to any team in the NFL because they have Bill Belichick and they have a decent baseline. talent. It's just, I don't think over 16 games, they're going to win more games in Buffalo bills. Danny Kelly, in general, how competitive is this division? Do you expect anything out of the

dolphins and jets? I don't really have high hopes for the Jets. I think the dolphins are one of those teams that, you know, they're well coached. They definitely finished strong last season. I think they well outplayed expectations last year with Fitzpatrick at the helm. Like anything can happen. I mean, that guy is just the most entertaining, like, veteran journeyman cornerback I've ever seen in NFL history. So they've been hit hard by injuries. Yeah. And I don't think they're, you know, they had a couple of guys opt out too. And so, you know, their offense could definitely struggle.

I would say it's a, it's not like an especially competitive division, but I think at the top, the bills and the Patriots is very close for me. It's a hard decision to make and not to give anything away. but I do think the Patriots are also going to make the playoffs. So, you know, I wouldn't expect a whole lot from the dolphins and jets this year, though. I expect competitiveness and interesting play from the dolphins. Kind of like an elevated version of what we saw last year, where they won games they shouldn't have and looked interesting things. And we're building something.

And that's why I think is important for the dolphins. You're not trying to win 10 games this year. I think the Buffalo Bills have the capability to win 12 games, everything breaks right. And I think the Patriots are probably a nine or ten win team. But I think that the dolphins have the chance to win, I don't know, seven and be the hype team for 2021. Nora Princiotti, same question about the jets, the dolphins. Is there anything there? Dolphins are frisky.

There is nothing there with the jets. Kailin Jones, how good are the bills just in general in the AFC pecking order? Are they the fourth best team for you, fifth best team for you? Where does the division winner here rank among the AFC hierarchy for you? I think honestly, if whoever wins the AFCEs, I think they can end up being the third seat. Like I don't see how Buffalo ends up being worse than whoever comes out of the AFC self. If we're pursuing that, you know, Baltimore or Kansas City are hitting those one-two spots. Yeah, I agree.

Danny, Buffalo, any chance of a Super Bowl path for them? I mean, sure, yeah. I think when you have a defense that can set that foundation in a game and compete with literally any team in the NFL, if you're going up against the Chiefs, man, you need a defense. They have a very, very good secondary. So, sure, I give them a chance. You know, they're not my favorite in this conference, but I certainly think that they're going to be very competitive. And we talked about this before. If Josh Allen can make a jump, anything is possible with this team.

That's a great stat, Kaelan that you put out earlier. just like the marginal increase in completion percentage, like could be enough. Like that is just one of those crazy stuff. He's 11 and oh when he completes 60% of his past. You guys are making me wince because completion percentage is just like such a tense triggering word in Buffalo. We're going to get some responses. It doesn't matter.

It doesn't actually matter. Completion percentage doesn't matter. Doesn't matter, but no, like two percentage points, but yeah. Oh, right. No, no, I get that. That part doesn't necessarily matter, but we'll put a pin in that, okay? Buffalo is the betting favorite at this point. They're plus 110.

New England is anywhere from 135 to 150, I think. And that's fairly recent. Obviously, the Patriots opened up as huge favorites in the springtime and that has flipped, but it's still pretty similar. And up to recently, I could, New England was the favorite in some books. that seems to not be the case anymore. All right. AFC North, there's a Super Bowl contender in this division.

There's a interesting. I was going to say Frisky Steelers team, but I don't think that's necessarily it because I think that there's some pathways there for them to be in real contention. A Cleveland team that we all think is much improved. And then Joe Burrow, who is as intriguing a rookie as there is. Interesting division.

I don't think we're going to have much of a variance on the pick here. Danny Kelly. I'm going with the Ravens. Nora. Ravens. Kaylon Jones. Ravens. Danny,

I'm going to need you to pick the Bengals or something and just defend it. All right. No, we're going to have some real arguments here. Danny also already dropped completion percentage

doesn't matter on this podcast. So let's not pretend that we're not courting controversy. So here are the odds. Baltimore minus 185, Cincinnati plus 1,600, Cleveland plus 450, Pittsburgh plus 375.

Danny, if I'm thinking of a threat to Baltimore in this division, am I thinking Cleveland or Pittsburgh? Pittsburgh. Actually, if I was going to pick a hierarchy in sort of the AFC overall, I think the Steelers might be the third best team. I agree with that.

They have a very good defense, a lot of good, you know, a good pass rush, good secondary. You know, Mika Fitzpatrick does a lot of stuff for them in that secondary. And I think that their offense is going to come back strong this season with Rothesberger, as long as he can stay healthy, you know. So, yeah, I mean, to me, this team, with literally the worst offense in the NFL last year, which finished 8 and 8,

you know, that just gives them a really, really high floor and a really high ceiling getting that offense kind of back on track. So, yeah, I think that they could end up really challenging for the division. And I think that,

you know, just right now I see them as the third best team in this conference. Big Ben also keeping, keeping the player X slimmed down over the off season brand of training camp pipe alive. Which is actually quite rare. He's actually quite rare for Ben.

He normally kind of leans into his bend him. His big bendum. Yeah. Smaller bend, I guess. Right. So a lot of things point to the Steelers being pretty good this year. Number one is that I keep coming back to this. They had the fourth biggest drop in offensive DVOA in the history of DVOA.

And they still went eight and eight. And I think that you learn a lot about your team when you go through a season without your quarterback. And I think generally this is going to be a continuity. season and the Steelers had that on both sides of the ball except they're adding the quarterback. So I think there's there's some real 10, 11, 12-win potential here. Caitlin Jones, Cleveland or Pittsburgh? I agree. Pittsburgh. And for the reasons you guys mentioned, obviously Big Ben is, you know, the biggest name in that

offense. But they also added Eric Eberon. I think that's this offense, the passing game, is going to be a lot more interesting this year. We'll be able to see, like, what the potential the Steelers passing game is without Antonio Brown there with Ben Rafflesberger back. I think it's really intriguing, especially within that division, you know, even though you have the ratings presumably at the top.

I think like Danny said, like they're probably the third best team in the AFC. And at their peak, they'll be able to push everybody. I'm just looking at sharp football analysis right now. Sharp football stats has the Steelers with the easiest schedule in terms of defensive efficiency of opponents. So that's also another like really major thing. They have the seventh. They have the seventh easiest schedule, according to Vegas forecasted season win totals.

So, yeah, that's working in their favor as well. I mean, the Ravens also have very easy schedule. So they've all got. So the Browns, the Browns have an easy schedule. And I think, am I going to have to make the case to the Browns or Nora? Do you have to, do you have a case? I do not have the case for the Browns. Okay. I have a case of the Browns.

Yes. And it's a sum of everything I've been saying the last couple of, of months, which is that we're always a year too early on team instead of a year too late. And interestingly, I was talking to the PFF guy's George and Eric the other day. And they made the case that maybe we're doing that with Dallas this year. Just a thought. Just a thought. But I think that Cleveland, we completely ignored when we all got on the hype train and

we all got on the hype train. We all got on the hype train. You're lying to yourself. You're on the hype train last year with Cleveland. Didn't have the offensive line. Didn't have the coach. just we got blinded by the roster talent and there's a thousand reasons team wins teams win games and general amount of blue chip players on the roster isn't isn't the be all end all and so

mistakes were made on that hype train but i think that generally they're much improved andrew barry's a good GM i like the moves they made to sort of again you when you are bad you learn things about your team and Andrew Barry came in and to plug the holes that were revealed over the season, hire a really good coach in Kevin Stefansky. So I think they're in the mix for the last wildcard team, Nor Princiotti. Why doesn't you have a case for the Browns?

So I didn't hear anything you said after blinded by the hype train because I was just going like, blinded by the hype train. So it's not that I can't make the case for the Browns, right? I mean, I've talked up Miles Garrett to the end of nowhere this whole offseason. I think that there's obviously, lot of talent there, I just simply think that they're the third best team in their division. Does anyone think that they're like a playoff contender except for me? For that final playoffs?

Yeah. Am I on an island? Am I on Brown's Island? No, they're definitely, they'll compete for that final playoffs. I don't know if they'll get it, but they might make that well-consider. It would not shock me. Are there islands off of Cleveland? In Lake.

In Lake Erie. They're all like, you know how Michigan has random islands? Yeah. Yeah. It looks like there's something called Whiskey Island, which I would love to be on Whiskey Island. You're so there. All right. So Baker Mayfield, Ben Ralthusberger, can someone give me a quick rundown of the quarterbacks in this division if they have Joe Burrow better than fourth in this division?

Danny Kelly, expectations for Joe Burrow? I mean, I like Baker Mayfield, but I think there's a chance Burrow could be better than him. I think there's a strong chance, actually. I love Burrow, man. I've kind of turned around, you know, over the offseason. I, you know, he was one of my top prospects in the draft guy. I think he was number two overall. And everything that we've heard out of camp is that he's just lighting it up, like, looks really good, you know.

And he has, for lack of a better word, like that it factor, he's that guy. Man, I feel like we all, I feel like we have all a little bit of collective amnesia. Baker Mayfield, when he was a rookie, had the it factor. He had the it factor until he started doing his weird, like mechanical habits last year, the Freddie Kitchens drilled into him. I don't, yeah. It's, it will be hard.

It will be hard for Joe Burrow to break the record for rookie touchdown passes set by Baker Mayfield two years ago. Yeah. I just don't think it's that much of a leap that Baker Mayfield can get where he needs to be and be better than Joe Burrow. Kaylin Jones, help me walk me through this. No, I kind of, I agree with Danny, like ultimately. I think bro could end up being better than Baker Mayfield.

But my biggest question with Mayfield is like, is this who he is? Because we've had two years of him now. Don't get me wrong. Like you mentioned the mechanics and the fact that, you know, the system didn't really placate to his full strengths last season. And he seemed a little bit off. But my question with Mayfield now is, you know, he's 25 years old, like, what if this is who he is? What if this is, what if he doesn't get any

better than what he is at right now? And that's my biggest question for him. I mean, obviously this year with Kevin Savansky has a better chance of probably, you know, reaching his peak. This is a guy, Stavansky's guy who, you know, unlocked Case Keenum in Minnesota. So there's a chance for him to unlock whatever Baker Mayfield has. It's just my, my biggest question for him is, does he get better? Is there anything more there? Or are we going to be, you know, talking about how the Browns wasted, you know, the lot. of talent that was around it. But I think Burrow has the impact.

I'm generally bullish on Mayfield in his career, but you can't ignore last year. Only James Winston had more clean pocket picks than Baker Mayfield. He was just, man, he just wasn't good. I'm well aware he wasn't good. I'm not trying to defend Baker Mayfield 2019. I'm trying to defend Baker Mayfield 2020 and just say that that there are, There's a path there. That's all.

We're not talking about Baltimore, and there's a reason we're not talking about Baltimore. You can probably figure that out. All right, AFC South, Danny Kelly. So, okay, let's see here. I get the Titans. Nora, what is that face, Nora? I also have the Titans.

Kaylon Joe's tough. I love like when I have a friend, you know? I have the Indianapolis Colts. I have the Indianapolis Colts, too, but I'd like to pick the Houston Texans just to stir it up. Yes. But I'm going to pick the Colts. Nora and Danny, you're on Titans Island.

Nora, you start us off. Yeah, well, I mean, so I think that the thing that's sort of interesting about this division, which was one of the tougher ones to pick, is you have this Tama Hill sample size, and it's small. And you kind of go, is that repeatable? I don't know. But then you also look at Philip Rivers, who had an outlier year in the negative direction last year. and go, can he rebound?

Is it age? Is it needs a change of scenery? Is it, you know, is it what? Ultimately, I am nervous about what the Colts have at receiver. I spent some time talking to Michael Pittman, Jr. earlier this off season, and I really like him. I really liked him coming out. I think he's a really, really interesting player

and one of the more sort of like pro-ready, you know, could contribute right away. but I came away with this feeling of, wow, this guy needs to be ready to be an NFL receiver kind of right off the bat for this team. And he was talking about, like, he's so fun and he was just talking about having only met Rivers a couple times and having a hard time telling that he's not a coach

and accidentally calling him coach and all this stuff that just made me think like, uh, I'd rather have an established connection with AJ Brown than be working with this. And I like, I like the continuity that the Titans have. I think, I mean, we've talked about Arthur Smith. Like, I just think that that's a smartly designed offense that was never asking Tanna Hill to be too much more than he can be.

So even if it's not, you know, he's not going to be one of the most efficient quarterbacks in football again necessarily. But I think he could be good enough. And I just like, you know, I like that they're going after clowny, by the way. I like a team that sort of believes in itself and thinks that it's clearly in its window. So I just, I'm feeling those good, good Titans vibes. I agree. I like the Titans. I will say Arthur Smith is will in 10 years be the only person in the NFL with more money than Patrick Mahomes, which I think is important to know. Although Dave Guttelman hasn't been able to play a running back lately. So we'll just, we'll keep an eye on that.

I'll keep an eye on that. All right. I FedEx some stuff this morning. So you're welcome, Arthur. Welcome, Arthur Smith. All right. So here's my take generally on this. I really like the Titans.

I like their continuity. I don't think Ryan Tannahill is going to have Mahomesian numbers as he did last year. I think the efficiency will go down a little bit. But I still like between Arthur Smith and Tannahill and the infrastructure and the line. and AJ Brown breaking tackles. That's a good team to me. But they've been nine and seven for a number of years. But the fact, they showed me something, obviously, by beating Baltimore, by going

up double digits in Kansas City, I was at that game. I mean, that was, I feel like because Mahomes' comebacks feel so normal now, we probably didn't give the credit that the Titans deserve to them. And I think this is a very competitive vision. And I'd like to say a word for Houston, who I think, and I think, and I think, and I I've said this on a million podcast. Selfseason have been consistently undervalued by fans and the books because Bill O'Brien seems like sort of overwhelmed as a GM and he is and he doesn't understand value,

but it doesn't mean that the 2020 roster and the 2020 coaching staff and the 2020 quarterback can't win this division. I think that there's a real path there. But I'm all in Indianapolis. And I think that putting Philip Evers in that situation where he doesn't have to be over competitive of Phil and throwing it into tighter windows and he should, trying to put the team on his back, whatever, putting him behind a good line, great offensive head coach. I just, I see this working out really well.

Kalan, break it down. Yeah, I agree with you. And when you add Philip Rivers to this offense, I think they were seventh and rushing offensive DVOA last year, but they were 24th and passing DVOA. And, you know, Nora pointed out that for Rivers, it was an outlier year. I think putting him into an efficient offense where you happen to establish rushing game will do all, you know, wonders for them, especially behind the offensive line, which arguably one of the best in the league. And then you look at the defense. I think that, you know,

their front seven, what they have in the Force Buckner, Justin Houston, adding them to that defense. I think that's going to, you know, help them improve this year. And it's a winnable division. I think that the Colts don't have to do as much as probably other teams do. It's going to be a competitive vision. But at the end of the day, the peak, you know, of the Titans or, you know, the Texans isn't as high as what, you know, the chief sort of ravens is. I think the Colts have a really good opportunity to sneak in and probably win that.

Danny, how close is this division? Like, one, okay, let's remove the Jaguars who are doing their own thing. Not in this discussion. One through three, you have Tennessee first. You have Indie second.

Okay. I have the Colts second. And then I have Houston. But how close is that? Very close. I agree with you. that I think that Houston, I mean, yeah, just look at their history, look at Bill O'Brien's history in terms of getting like what he's gotten out of his rosters.

You know, we can talk about his GM skills, but, you know, he's done a really good job, consistently getting this team to compete. So it was very, that was the hardest decision, actually, I think for me as to whether, like, how to, how to like make this hierarchy. I ended up going, yeah, but I ended up going Titans first, Colts second. And I think to your guys' discussion, the Colts have the easiest schedule, according to football outsider's projections. And the Titans have like the fourth easiest.

So those things definitely work in their favor. I actually see the Colts and Titans as two very similar teams. I bet they're going to try and do like very similar things, like very tough on defense, run the ball a lot, use their, you know, running backs to take some pressure off of their quarterbacks, maybe play action. So yeah, I just think these two teams are kind of built similarly and ultimately they have easy schedules. they're going to and yeah so I think that those are the two that are going to come out there.

Nora, who's second of this division? The Colts. I have them making the playoffs. Okay. And then anything there with the Texans? Again, it's just, I think this, I mean, maybe the, maybe the AFC North is sort of like a tighter division. I don't know. In the AFC, it would be either the north or the south to me.

But I, just like you said, I think there's a lot to like about the Texans. I sort of, there's something that feels fundamentally wrong about us saying, oh, Deshaun Watson, like, get out. You're not a part of this picture. But I like the other two teams better. I just, I think that they're overall sturdier. I have an innate sense of fear when it comes to the Texans defense. It's terrifying. I don't blame you on that.

just, I'm not picking the Texans as a playoff team. I'm just saying I'm not counting out Deshaal Watson in the prime of his career. Nor am I. I think that I think he's really good. All right. Hot take. AFC West. Again, not seeing a lot of variance here, but we'll get into the nuance.

Danny Kelly, start us off. Chiefs. Norah? Chiefs. Kaylon Jones. Chiefs. Okay. Let's get that.

We've got that out of the way. And we can talk about the chiefs with the Super Bowl. Nora, anything going on in this division. with another team that has a potential to make the playoffs. No. Perfect. That's exactly what we want here on the ringer NFL show. Danny Kelly.

I want to make arguments for both the Broncos and Raiders to potentially. Oh my goodness gracious. All right. Danny Kelly pandering to Broncos Twitter. Drew Locke. Take us home, Danny. It's not necessarily because of Drew Locke, actually. I mean, I do.

Oh, no. Now you've ruined all your goodwill. They have such a good skill position group. Portland Sutton, you know, I think is going to be an elite receiver, Jerry Judy there. Noah Fant, love that guy. I think that they'll do a good job. Pat Shermore will do a good job of kind of just like using Locke to distribute the ball and get his playmakers going. But I do like their defense.

I think their defense is really interesting. You know, obviously, Vaughn Miller has a chance to be a completely dominant player again. They quietly got Drell Casey over the offseason, which. I thought was good value. And people would love to dunk on John Elway. and a lot of that's justified. But I think he did some good business this offseason. Absolutely.

I mean, that's one of the most underrated moves, I think, of the entire off season. Bradley Chub is coming back. You know, very exciting pass rusher to kind of go across from Miller. And they also have a good secondary.

So I don't know. I just think, you know, their defense is good enough to, you know, keep them in games. And if their offense takes a jump and I think it will, then they'll be competitive.

I don't know if they'll make the playoffs, but I do see them, as a hard out kind of thing. Like they're not going to be easy to beat. Kaelin, any of the three teams have any path, in your opinion, to the playoffs here. I agree with Danny that I think you can make a slimmer case for the Raiders, but like you mentioned, like the Broncos have the pieces when you look at their roster to be frisky. And I think we saw it with the Titans last year.

They're able to sneak in because of their defense, because their quarterback didn't make any mistakes. And the running game was pretty good. I don't think Denver's running game is nearly as good. But when you look at the passing game, they have the potential to, you know, this would be like a quot and leap in terms of development, but they can score with anybody potentially. And their defense,

they have elite pass rushers on both ends. And they have a really dominant secondary, at least potentially. So there's a Broncos thing going on where, you know, we're talking about, we've talked about hype coming a year too early. That's my thing.

It's just, it's not, I don't think it's going to be, this year. And I think they've done, I think John Elway has done some really smart business in particular in getting that roster a little bit younger. They were 14th in football outsiders, snapweighted age in 2017 on offense. And then 18th and 2018, 30th last season. And so they have a younger roster, really promising talent. And they've also just, they're playing a more modern brand of football too. Like when Drew Locke started playing, how refreshing was it to see

a quarterback who could actually, you know, move around a little bit outside the pocket. Replacing Joe Flacco is almost a cheat code. Like if you, it's really, I mean, it's not a million, I love the guy. I love the guy who's on slow newsday next week, but it's a little bit like replacing Jeff Fisher, where there's a bit of just a bounce from just not being Jeff Fisher, right? It's like the opposite of, you know, if you're friends with some model-y type, people are like, oh, I hate being in photos next. for her like it's brutal. Right.

The opposite of that. But anyway, anything, Anna, we'll stop here there. Anything you want to unpack there? No, that wasn't.

Okay. Okay. We're not talking about our personal life. Just generalities. Okay. No, we're just, there just could be anybody.

I'm talking about you, I hate being in photographs with you because it's just so. Um, you wrote about the Broncos for the brinko's for the brinker. com last week. And I'm curious your biggest takeaway. Just that, give the guy a little bit of patience.

Again, I just think this is a classic example of a team that had years and years in draft classes that just did not get them any stars, got them very few starters. And they had to kind of, you know, go through the rough process of figuring out how to, you know, there was never like a full tank there. And it was a little messy because you have this veteran contingent that wants to, to play one way and that wants sort of their needs. And then you also just have the reality of this team's not ready to compete right now. And that rebuild, I think, has sort of been in fits and starts a little bit.

But because of the last two draft classes looking, you know, and that's early returns, but they look really good so far. They have a chance to have that roster be really solid again. But it just is a year too much to ask. Like Broncos Twitter seems to think it is, but I just don't understand why we can't wait a little bit. I think a lot of it is they've been mostly irrelevant since the Super Bowl. And I think for a franchise like the Broncos who are used to competing, I think that fan bases get antsy. And I'm not, I'm not anywhere near Broncos fans on the Drew Locke hype and the hype just around this team.

But I find it understandable why they'd be so excited. I just don't think the height matches the production. Danny Kelly, make your Raiders case. Shit. I was hoping you wouldn't ask me that. You could do it in 15 seconds. It's fine. You don't have to, like, commit to it.

Okay, here's my take. If their offense takes a big jump, I think, then they could come in. And I think, you know, obviously they sunk a lot of resources into the offense. Henry Ruggs, Brian, Brian Edwards in the draft, Lynn Bowden, who I really like. You know, Darren has a chance, honestly, to be a star. Like he could just be like the yeah, I think he already is yeah some ways definitely I mean and it's kind of crazy that was like his breakout year because he already just Incredible story. It looks like he's been around yeah absolutely incredible story I think it was Dan Pompey wrote a piece on on Darren Waller that I really you guys should all read because he has an unbelievable story yeah the background in in beating addiction and all that Josh Jacobs one of the best running backs I think talent wise in the NFL so I don't know and they've always had a

like a good, it seems like they always have good offensive line. So like the pieces on offense are there for them to score some points. I know that in this division it's kind of an arms race because everyone's trying to keep up with the chiefs. And I think it's the same deal with as the Broncos were.

They're probably like a year away. But I guess, you know, if it comes a little earlier than we thought, then they could compete. But I don't really believe it in my heart, but I could see it. That was an amazing, amazing way to cap that off. Yeah, I'm in agreement with you. I think that the Raiders are extremely intriguing.

I don't know this is a little bit, you know, pseudosciencey, but just moving in a weird pandemic year. And I think they had a pretty set plan on how that was going to go and where they were going to have OTAs and all that stuff and when they were going to move from California. And I think that, you know, just like everybody with the weird season and the weird year, I wonder how. how hard it was to do everything this year. But I like the talent. I think Mike Mayock is a pretty good GM. I think John Gruden is a better coach than we give him credit for. He's almost,

I keep saying that's in the Bill of Brian zone, where because he made some organizational mistakes, we forget that he's actually a pretty good scheme coach. And I think it's fine. Anybody have a case for the Chargers? I got nothing. I mean, I think Darwin James fundamentally changes the way they play.

And him being out, just, you know, again, you need a million things to go right. If you don't have an elite quarterback, and the Chargers don't have, that and I think Darwin James

being injured is the first step towards things going wrong. Anybody else there with the Chargers or are we all in agreement that they're kind of done this year? Yeah. Not all at once. Don't all make your case for the Chargers at once. Taste episode is brought to you by Heineken. Hynickon would like to remind you that it's time for seasonal

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Bacardi, do what moves you, drink responsibly, Bacardi USA, Coral Gables, Florida, rum with natural flavors and spices, 35% alcohol by boy. All right, let's get to the NFC East. I've been trying to play every side of this so that the cowboy, I never make a declaration on the Cowboys of the Eagles.

But the last couple of days have brought this into focus. Danny Kelly. I got the Cowboys. Norah. Cowboys. Kaylon Jones. Cowboys.

All right. So I have the Cowboys too. I have a question. And I'll start with you, Danny Kelly. What was your pick a month ago? I think it probably still would have been the Cowboys, but the Eagles have certainly the injury situation that they're having is it makes me more.

are worried about them. I love the Eagles. I love the organization. I love what they did last year. I love what they did when they won the Super Bowl. I think Howard Roseman's great. I think Doug Peterson is great. I think even their draft was better than we give it credit for even though they didn't

necessarily improve the team, all that much for 2020. But I think the pieces were there and the health is obviously a huge thing this year. But to lose Brandon Brooks, to lose Andre Diller, who Adam Schifford, who Adam Schifford, who Adam Schifford said was, quote, dominant in camp. Brandon Brooks is what, the fifth best player in football according to PFF last year? I mean, that just seems that just seems like holes you can't plug. I know Jason Peters is there, but I don't know. I changed my pick to Dallas because of that.

I was hesitant because I was worried about how much my McCarthy could get done in a month, but I got to go with Dallas. Nora, what was your tiebreaker here? I frankly didn't really need a tiebreaker. I mean, I think the injuries make me more confident in it, but I just, I think the Cowboys roster is pretty just solid overall. I mean, it's hard not to feel channelized by the idea of CDLAM jumping in the mix there. I love Jack Prescott.

And I love, I kind of loved a little Mike McCarthy rebrand that's been going on over the last several months. Analytics guru. Analytics guru rules expert, element of surprise lover. Like, I'm all about it. So it's not a tiebreaker. It's just that you love Mike McCarthy's new persona. It's that I love everything that Mike McCarthy. he's about. I think it's chic. And I've been on this train since the beginning. So let's go.

I put out a trailer. We put out a trailer. Corey McConnell made it for Slow Newsday this week. And someone said that the same way that Mike McCarthy was using PFF to launder his image, Jeff Fisher is using Slow Newsday. He's learning how to just be on a print newspaper-based talk show. And that's how he's going to launch himself back into football. You know what? It worked. He's back. He's back. He's the top candidate for 2021 jobs. Kalin Jones, this Cowboys team. How good can they be? You know, they can arguably be what? The third second seat in the NFC, I think.

They have that potential just when you look at this roster. And then the fact that, you know, Mike McCarthy, again, like this whole rebranding, the fact that he's allowing Kellyn Moore to retain, you know, play calling duties, I think that's big, especially when Kevin, like you've been hammering at home. I've been repeating it everywhere. Continuity is the name of the game this year. And so I think when you and Nora mentioned it, you're adding CD Lamb, who will be a number three receiver, if not, you know, comparably number one. Like there's a potential for this to become the first option to have 3,000 yard receivers since like 2008.

And I'm not saying it'll happen. But they just have so much potential offensively that I'm not sure, you know, there was ever a question for me at least whether or not they were going to be better than the Eagles. Just a note on Kellynne Moore staying the play caller, I'm mostly being tongue-in-cheek about the Mike McCarthy stuff. But I do think decisions like that where you see someone put a little bit of ego aside, they always make me feel a lot more confident just in them getting off the runway as he transitions to being a part of that organization. So yes, obviously not having the names on the jerseys and stuff. Like it's fluffy stuff. It's not going to make a difference in wins and losses.

I do think having that sort of continuity and also just the buy-in that comes from not barreling into an organization. organization and saying, I know how to do everything right. You guys don't, we're going to change everything up. Like, that's actually valuable. That's, that's a real thing. So it's not all silly stuff. All right. Anybody have a case that the Giants or anything other than the third best

team in this division? No. Excellent. I love it. That was an IQ test. Just see how it's going. All right. Yeah.

So we're all in agreement on Dallas. I think that it probably, it just makes sense. They've got a good roster. Doc Prescott's a good quarterback. And I want to believe in Philadelphia, but it's just not happening. They feel like the chiefs of the NFC. If there's no chiefs, you know, of the NFC, but if there's any team that was going to be the vet.

I wish the listener could see my face right now. I'm not mad, I'm just disappointed. You're sneering at me. I'm just, I'm not mad. I'm just disappointed. All right, make your case. So the. always had the most yards, most yards per play last year. Then they added CD Lamb. In theory,

they're going to, you know, they're going to get a more effective better Ezekiel Elliott this year. I don't know for that for the for sure. But like he came in. I think he admitted he came in a little bit like not at peak performance last year. You know, I just think the way that they're able to score points, move the ball in the way that the chiefs are just like a buzzsaw. You just can't like, you can't keep up with them. that's what I'm saying. Like the Cowboys have a chance to be that kind of team where they're just going to score more points.

Like it's just going to be really hard to keep up with them. I understand what you're saying spiritually about them being Chiefs-esque. Emotionally, but metaphysically. The Chiefs have the best quarterback and play caller in football. I know. I'm not saying they're the Chiefs. And the Cowboys don't have the best quarterback and don't have the best playoff.

So that's why that was why I recoiled a little bit when you mentioned the Chiefs. Keep me in check, man. Keep me in check. Yeah. What do you think C.D. Lamb would say to being told that he is the Clyde Edwards Hilaire of the NFC? The Hardman. You're a hardman. I listen to Bob Stern, who came on the ringer NFL show on Friday, a great, great

breakdown of the Cowboys and their expectations, what we can expect. I think sometimes coaches get bounces just by not being the other guy, kind of the, the Drew Lock Joe Flacco thing, Kevin's Tafansky with Freddie Kitchens, and Mike McCarthy's not Jason Garrett. And I think there's, there's something to that. Okay. All right. NFC North. Green Bay, the favorites. Actually, pretty close to Minnesota, actually. And in some books, Minnesota is the favorite. And that flipped from the opening line in the place where Minnesota is a favorite. Detroit plus 450 and Chicago plus 400. NFC. North, North, Prince, Iotti. Vikings. Kaelan. Vikings. Whoa. Danny,

I got the Packers. Yeah. I had the Packers, too. I, let's just start out with the team Vikings over here. Kalon Jones. So, look, obviously, Stefan Diggs losing him as a big, huge loss for their offense. Kevin Savansky, play caller, that's an even bigger loss. But when you talk about what they're bringing in, Gary Kubiak's going to be their office coordinator,

what he was able to get out of, you know, Matt Schaubb in Houston. You know, it'll be a pretty similar offense when you talk about the play action game. I don't think that they'll be at least offensively buried too far away from what they were doing before. But defensively, I think that the addition of Yonnik and Gokwe and addition in tandem with what they already have in Danielle Hunter along that defensive line is going to be massive. I think their secondary, what they have in Anthony Harris and Harrison Smith in that in the deep secondary at safety, I think their defense is going to allow them, you know, not only just compete, but I think ultimately it'll allow them to, again, And cohesiveness and continuity going in the next year, I think that they have it. And I think that they have a lot of talent on that defensive side of the ball that makes, that kind of separates and makes the difference in this.

And the fact that they were able to retain a Riley Reef at left tackle, I think that kind of puts them over the edge for me this year. Nora. So, Kevin, you and I had a conversation a couple of pods ago where we touched on the downward trajectory of the Jacksonville Jaguars and also why I don't run the Baltimore Ravens. I'm already, I'm already deeply into this conversation that starts with the, the Vikings and Packers tiebreaker that involves the Jacksonville Jaguars. Go ahead. So if there's one thing that, that is relevant to the dissolution of the good Jaguars, it's misjudging where your roster is. It's, it's kidding yourself about a player that you spent draft capital on and not having a realistic idea of where you are. We also talked about why I don't run the Ravens, which is basically because I would not be good at that.

Quite bad. All of us. I believe that the Vikings are run by smart people. And when they traded for Ngakwe, I said, they're going for it. And I should listen to them because they think that they are in a position to take a swing and to be a really competitive team. And I trust them.

and I think that it's a relatively, you know, it's not a huge, huge gap between them and the Packers, but there are some, you know, you talk about sort of like the key regression red flags, eight and one and one score games, plus 12 in the turnover differential, some things that it would be only natural if the Packers did not get the same amount of breaks

that they got last year. So the way that I feel is that I think the Packers team, at least, you know, in terms of the final record, is not going to be as good. And everything that I see the Vikings doing tells me that they believe that their roster is really good. And I trust them. So I think that there are two ways to look at this. I've gone back and forth between the Vikings and the Packers all offseason. And there are times I've said that the Vikings are better than the Packers and the times said the Packers are better than the Vikings.

I think that there's going to be a little more to work in with the Vikings. I think it's really important. They kept Riley Reef. I'm excited about that. You don't want a hole in your offensive line a week before the season starts. The Ingaqway trade was awesome. I just think the Packers roster for 2020 is a little better. And I don't think there is a Super Bowl contender in the NFC North.

I think that both these teams are really good, but they're really good for the NFC North. don't think they're going to quite get there. We saw what happened when a really good Packers team for the, the best version of this Packers team last year went into San Francisco last year, and we saw what happened twice, and I don't think they've done much to address that. I think even though, strangely, they've tried to become schematically the 49ers with some of their draft picks this year. I think that's more of a long-term project. Still like the defense, like some of the signings that made last year, that carry over under this year, both double-digit-win teams, my opinion. Danny Kelly, how did you make your decision?

I've been thinking this whole time about how I would argue the Packers over the Vikings. It's very difficult. They're very, very close to me in terms of, like, projection. You know, you talk about the Vikings having a really good pass rushing duo, and the Packers have a really good pass rushing duo, and Preston Smith and Sterea Smith. You know, they have a very good interior defensive line. Kenny Clark, very good player. You know, I think that their defense has a chance to be, to take a jump.

I do like some of the talent they have in their secondary. Jayir Alexander, Darnell Savage, you know, he had a really exciting rookie year last year at times. So their defense could make a jump. And I don't know. Like honestly, I don't have a strong, strong take on Vikings over Packers. I just want with Packers because, I don't know, I just feel like I guess I feel a little bit more confident in them just overall. But, you know, you could even go to like right to the Corvac situation. Like I don't even necessarily feel like way more confident.

and Rogers over cousins anymore at this point, though. You know, that that's probably a controversial take. Would you like to expand on that take? No, no, I'm good. Because he will find you and take you down. I mean, I know I picked the Vikings, but. Very quickly. We'll start with you, Nora.

The third best team in this division is who? Oh, the lions. Oh, this is horrible. Lions have a better quarterback. Okay, okay. The Lions have a better quarterback. It's the Lions. Lions have a better quarterback.

The Lions, I feel ill. Matt Nagy's, Matt Nagy's probably a better coach than Matt Patricia. Yes. And better play caller than Darryl Bevel. But I think the Bears have a better roster. I don't really know. Bulls and Trubisky,

each one is struggling to distinguish himself from the other. I'm aware. I'm just telling you. But Stafford is not. This is a Matthew Stafford podcast. It's a Matthew Stafford narrative podcast. Halen Jones, what's your answer? Man, this sucks because, you know, I'm kind of a Matt Stafford homer.

But I agree with you, Kevin. Like, I think the Bears top the bottom, you know, outside of the quarterback situation, which I'm trying really hard not to understate the quarterback situation in Chicago. But, I mean, they just have a better roster. I think they're just more talented, top the bottom than Detroit.

But I do think Stappard can, you know, make things interesting. And I would not be surprised at all if Detroit is, you know, better than Chicago is this year. To be clear, I think a lot of parts of the Bears roster are better than a lot of parts of the Lions roster, too. Danny Kelly. I'm giving, I'm giving the Bears a slight edge. I was just thinking of this. Last year, the Lions started, I believe, were they four and four or three, four and one? Three, four and one.

Yeah, three, four and one. one. They're playing good football. They had that weird ass game in Arizona. Yeah. Just. That was a weird game. Come on.

So, and I kind of see them again as like a 500-ish team. I see they see the bears probably around the same. That's my too. They're both seven win teams for me. I'm not, but I just think it's interesting philosophical discussion. Bears have a better defense. I think the lion's offense is actually going to be really good this year. And that could kind of, you know, keep them in the middle, in the middle of the pack.

NFC South. favorites are the New Orleans Saints, minus 105, plus 145 for the Tampa Bay bucks, Atlanta plus 650 or 950 in some books, and then Carolina is plus 2,000 or plus 1,800, depending on where you bet it, and I do not recommend betting Carolina.

Kaelin Jones, NFC. South. So my pick is kind of dependent on Davian Clowny whether or not he signs with the Saints or not. Right now I'm picking the bucks, but if Clowny signs with the Saints, and I'm picking the Saints. Sorry. Stradling a fence based on one defensive player is a choice.

Also based on the Saints like shaking out their couch cushions. Like what money? I need them to manage my finances. I love. Actually, I don't recommend that. I do not recommend that. This is, if you're from like the Saints, I don't want to look under behind the curtain of the Saints' finances and see it.

probably the most stressful. Like, you ever watch Uncut gems where they're just, just tension on tension, on tension, on tension. Like that is, when a team is up against it on the cap,

I imagine this is the chiefs, this is the Vikings, is the Saints. I just imagine just everybody's tense being like, man, I hope we have enough money to afford the players we have.

I mean, it's crazy. It's crazy. There are multiple teams next year. They're like anywhere from 40 to $70 million over the cap. It's like, how do you function like that? Student loans, essentially.

That's what it is. I heard a story the other night about some people that somebody I know knows got a really nice house. And everyone was like, whoa, that's a nice house. And then people started digging into it. You realize that, you know, the percentage money down was like, yikes, you two better stay together. And that is how it feels. Get some roommates. Looking at the state's salary.

for more information I recommended the Bob Stern podcast for the Cowboys fans for more information on the Saints salary cap I recommend a movie called The Big Short starring Stephen Correll and you can just

learn more about how they're able to kick the can down the road Danny Kelly this division I'm going with Saints no are Prince Yad I too picked the Ponzi scheme team okay I think I think we're all in agreement here

I like the Saints this is Sean Peyton choice Drew Brees choice, the infrastructure there, it's just too good. I think that they're, you know, I was saying this of the day when I started on PFF guys, but there are four teams that are over under is double digits for wins. And I think the Saints are actually the worst team of that group, but that means they're still pretty good. I don't think they're on the level with the Chiefs and the Ravens and even the 49ers.

They lost the Vikings in the playoffs last year, the aforementioned Vikings. But I just don't, I don't think Tampa Bay is there. And I think that in a different offseason where Tom Brady is able to do Tom Brady things. I think this is a different conversation. Nora, having been around Tom Brady, having written about the Bucks for the ringer.com in the last couple of weeks, I guess this week, whatever you want to call it, I've lost all sense of time. Your thought process on the bucks is what? I think that they will have a very good offense. I think, you know, so when I wrote about Tom Brady was sort of taking a look back at the football that he played even before that

he was in the NFL and talking to, you know, people he played with. in high school and thinking about what he was doing and just the football that he grew up thinking about and watching, what struck me was that he, you know, things are starting to change with how much college concepts and athleticism have been prized at the quarterback position. So this is more true when you think of the whole span of Tom Brady's career than when you think of 2020. but what struck me was that he just, he was made into the ideal quarterback for the era of the NFL that he entered. And it made him uniquely adaptable.

So there could be all of these offensive innovations that could sort of come out through him and happen around him. And his ability to just throw the passes that are staples for all NFL offenses, no matter, you know, scheme to scheme, it's helped him have this incredible career. And I think that that still applies as he switches teams. I'm not terribly concerned about, you know, unless his arm is shot at the age of 43,

which I just don't think that it is. I'm not concerned about Bruce Ariens wanting him to push the ball downfield more than he's been used to in New England. Those things are not, you know, they just don't strike me as things that would be difficult for Tom Brady to crack the code on. I actually think that he's going to be delighted

that he has some new receivers who are potentially better suited to take advantage of those throws than he's been working with for the last couple of years. I just think that they, I have them making the playoffs, but it's unproven. ultimately. It's just kind of like a show me thing.

It's, it's no one has reinvented himself, as you said, more than Tom Brady. No one has bent the era to his will more than Tom Brady. And you wonder, and I think that this shows how much of a unicorn, how many unicorns are in that generation of quarterbacks that we are taking for granted that their arms are going to be fine, whether that's Breeze, who's over 40, Brady who's 43. Like the fact that we're just like, oh, they're going to be fine if this advanced age shows you how amazing they are. I think any other people, player would be doubting, maybe the other generation of players would be doubting out of hand. And the fact that we assume they're both going to be elite is pretty amazing to me.

And the fact that their supporting cast will help them. And I think that that wasn't the case last year in New England. It's always been the case in New Orleans. So I'm intrigued to see how that shakes out. But I have the Saints and then obviously the Bucks is a playoff team. Janet Kelly, how close of a choice was this for you? It wasn't that close. This one was pretty easy for me.

I just think the Saints are so balanced. You know, so good on defense, so good on offense. They have good coaching. You know, I just think it was a pretty easy choice for me. I do think the Buccaneers are going to be really good, though. I agree with you. Yeah, I think it's going to be, that's going to be a really fun division. And the Buccaneers, I think, underratedly have a very good defense also.

You know, I was just thinking about like their defensive line, Dumbican Sue, Vita Vaya, Jason Pierre-Paul. They also have Shaq Barrett, who kind of emerged last year as a really good pass rusher. Their secondary is really young. And they have a lot of potential playmakers in their secondary. So, yeah, I think overall they're really, really set up well for a run at this thing. But to me, there's just too many moving parts. Their offense is going to be completely different.

Their philosophy, their style might be completely different than what we saw with Jameson, obviously. So that's just kind of like the only thing that's keeping me from really planting my flag with the bucks is just we haven't seen it yet. All right, real quick. Any cases for Atlanta as a playoff team? I think that their continuity and just the advantage they have with Matt Ryan and Julio Jones will get them to nine wins. I just think it's a bad year to be the Falcons. I just think that they're up against it with this division. And it's a noble team and good team, good roster building and all that.

but it's just, I just don't think there's a path there. All right. Last division, before we get to the playoff picks, NFC West. The favorite is the San Franciscoer 49ers last year's Super Bowl team. It became very close to winning the Super Bowl. Got Mahomes. Second favorite, Seattle.

And then depending on where you look, either tied or a slight favorite to the Los Angeles Rams and the Arizona Cardinals. Danny Kelly. I got the 49ers winning the division. Norprin Seattle. 49ers. Kailen Jones.

49ers. So I do too. Do we all have Seattle as a playoff team? Or is there someone who does not? Yes. I do. I do. Okay.

Danny, if we run this 100 times, season 100 times, how often does Seattle win? Maybe like a quarter, maybe 25% or so. I think that they are going to be really good on offense, and that's going to be kind of their foundation. Their defense is a huge question mark to me, though. you know, that's kind of like the, what could put them over the top if their defense is better than I expected. They don't have a very established pass rush group.

Bruce Irvin is kind of like the only guy that's really established in that group right now. They got Rashim Green who's, you know, shown some flashes. L.J. Collier did absolutely nothing as a rookie. But, you know, obviously they made the big trade for Jamal Adams over the offseason. He's had incredible hype in training camp. The stuff that I'm kind of like hearing behind the scenes is that he's, like fucking amazing basically. So that's exciting.

And he could change the whole complexion of their defense potentially, but I'm not necessarily there yet with that defense. I think their defense could be an issue, especially just because of the pass rush situation. But I'm confident in that offense. This is like a 10-win team every season, you know, Russell Wilson. So I think, yeah, if you run the simulation a hundred times,

there's definitely some situations where the CX will be the, you know, top team in the NFC West. Nora, what are your takeaways in the division? I would even say more than, you know, if I ran that simulation,

it would be more than a quarter of the time, like 35, 40%, maybe. That's not how simulations work. If she ran it. I run the Baltimore Ravens and I run the simulation.

And the NFC and the NFC West simulation. When are you going to pick up on how this goes? She just games it until it gets to be 35%. In my, Nora runs unskewed polls. Go ahead. Just, you know, I just think Russell Wilson is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.

And I think Jimmy Groplo is a wonderful young man, but not quite at that level. So it made it hard to choose this division. But, I mean, I just think that, one, Kyle Shanahan is going to be able to do some stuff against defenses that haven't had a lot of time to prepare this offseason that I think is going to, you know, he's going to clown some people. And there's all the continuity in the world there. Well, my biggest question would be the secondary. We'll see they've obviously been really good, but, you know, Sherman's older. And I wonder if that could fall off a little bit.

But obviously an incredible pass rush. And I think that they can pick up where they left off. Kaelan, anything to the Rams or the Cardinals, or is this to the two-hours race that we all think it is? Ooh, that's a good question because, like, I kind of like, I like the Cardinals a lot. Obviously, they're the, I feel like the off-season hyped up team within that division, kind of similar to the Broncos.

Where in the EFC, you have this really young team, or at least a core that's really intriguing. And then you add DeAndre Hopkins to their passing game, arguably one of the best receivers in the game. They have something there. And, again, I don't think, that it would surprise me if they, you know, snuck into the playoffs somehow.

But I'll be a little bit more tempered this time. Like I think I won't put them a year too early, you know, I think maybe a year or two from now. And then with the Rams, they just have a veteran unit, but they've just lost so much. You know, I think they were built to win, you know, two years ago.

And we've seen what's happened since they failed to do so. Good breakdown of the Rams with Peter Stregor on last week's pod. Their expectations are quite high from, you know, He's talking to them a lot. He's doing a show with them for Hard Knocks. And he thinks that they think they're a position for a Super Bowl. And I think that when you look at the blue chip talent and the coaching, I agree. But I don't think that 1 through 53, they have a division-winning roster,

especially when you have Kyle Shanahan and that roster. And so much certainty. Now that George Kittle is around for, what, five more years. They made that trade in the offseason to retool the defensive line. I think I know what I'm getting was. Francisco. All right, did we all identify our wildcard teams throughout here? So let's just quickly before we get to our Super Bowl participants and winners outline who we think is going to be the wildcard teams, the three wildcard teams. Danny? So my wild cards in the

AFC are the Steelers, Patriots, and Colts. And in the NFC, I have the Buccaneers, Seahawks, and the Rams. Maybe that's a surprise. I don't know. Yeah, can you take us to that for a second? I feel like I'm I'm higher than a lot of people on the Rams. I think their offense is going to. Yes, yes, that just happened. We just confirmed that. Go ahead. I think their offense is going to not necessarily be what we saw a couple years ago,

but I think their offense is going to be good. I think they have, Sean McVeigh is going to come up with a plan to kind of mitigate the offensive line issues that they had last year that really held them back. I think Goff is going to regress positively sort of to where he was two years ago. I think, you know, frankly, having a running back who's better than Todd Gurley is going to be good because the run game is such a foundation of that offense and play action and everything. I do feel like Gurley maybe

was holding that back a little. And so overall, I just like this Rams, you know, offense a lot. And then defensively, you have Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. So that's not, like you said, the one to fit one to 53. They're not the deepest team, I don't think. But, you know, you have two superstar defenders on that defense. And that could be enough to get them sort of like to the middle of the pack and be good enough to make them a playoff team. I mean, they won. nine games last year. And I feel like everyone's saying that, you know, they're, they're not tanking necessarily, but they're going in the wrong direction.

I still think they're a competitor. Kallyn Jones, wildcards very quickly? In the AFC out, the Steelers, the Patriots, and the Houston, Texas. And Indiana. Yeah. Yeah. Titans are out. Oh, yeah.

No, I don't have the time. I think, again, Ryan, I think Ryan Tanahill regresses, but very quickly, like, my point with the Texans is that I think they Sean Watson with the receiving guard. Granted, they lost DeAndre Hopkins, but you look at receiving Gore he has now. Brandon Cooks, Will Fuller, if he could stay healthy, and Randall Cobb.

In addition to that, you have David Johnson, who's a pretty good weapon when he's healthy. You know, I don't know if he'll ever be at the all pro level that he was a few years ago. But again, like we talk about, you know, how important the quarterback position,

how much of a difference it can make. I think this is the year that, you know, Deshaun Watson kind of entretches himself as, you know, in that upper echelon, maybe not elite, elite, but he'll be in that top. quarterback conversation. And then the NFC, I have the Saints,

the Seahawks, and the Packers. Interesting. Okay. Norr-Pensiati. In the AFC, I have the Steelers, Colts, and Patriots. In the NFC, I have the Seahawks, Bucks, and Packers. Interesting. Okay. In the AFC, I have New England, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland. Yeah. I have Cleveland making the playoffs.

in the NFC, I have Minnesota, Tampa Bay, and Seattle. Sorry, sorry, Eagles. I wanted to pick you for the Super Bowl like I always do every single year. All right, we have a few minutes. We're going to get to our Super Bowl picks. Participants in winners, Norr, Preciati. All right. So I have the Saints winning a Chief Saints Super Bowl.

Kailen Jones. I have the Chiefs and the Bucks. and have the Chiefs winning. Danny Kelly. Chiefs. Chiefs over Saints. I went like the chalkiest one. I don't think that's chalk.

Ravens for me. Ravens beating the Sandwichgo. I love that. 49ers. That's fun. It is. It is. It would be incredible to have Lamar Jackson

another season against flat-footed defenders who against defenses that haven't caught up with them because they're on Zoom. Like I just, I feel like the, the, the possibilities there. Norah, defend your pick.

I think the Saints have a better defense, and I think it's hard to repeat. And then the Chiefs and the AFC as well. What's the pathway there, aside from just doing what they did in last year? Yeah, well, I mean, I think that's the pathway. Yeah. Having the best play caller quarterback in football and then doing that again. Remaining what you are. Stay what you are.

It saves the day. There's not a lot that needs to go right for them. And I think that with my Baltimore pick, I think that has a little bit to do with just sort of the moves they made. I mean, I really like guys like Cleis Campbell. That's what smart teams do. And by the way, that's just going to keep happening. You know, I mean, we saw that with the Marcus Peters thing. They take advantage of value.

And even though this is a weird stilted year, I think the Ravens might get better over the course of the season because they have one of the best GMs of football. So it's not just what they have. It's not just what they've done. It's what they have the capability to do. And I just, I don't know. I just like this roster is. All right. Kaelin Jones. I explain your pick. I pick the bucks because, again, I think just the fact that you had Tom Brady leading down offense,

I think that they'll find a way to, you know, if it comes to them playing the Saints or whoever else in the NFC championship game, especially if it's the Niners. I think their run defense when you talk about Bita Baya, the front seven. I think they would match up pretty well against San Francisco, at least against their San Francisco's offense. So I think that they would push the Super Bowl, but I pick the Chiefs ultimately again, because Patrick homes like in one word like yeah or one one one player it's Patrick Mahomes like there's and chalk chalk is going to be important this year and because exactly we've been talking about the last couple weeks like you don't want to be trying to get better or establishing a culture anything like that and 14 pad of practices and I think there's probably a reason we're not going out on limbs here uh we're picking

tom brady and patrick mahomes and drew brees and Lamar jackson and there are reasons for that danny kelly defender pick yeah I went with the chiefs because you know they're just the There's so, it's, so many things have to go wrong for the Chiefs to lose, I feel like. You know what I mean? They're one of those things. I think the Ravens are exactly the same. Like, if you look at the Ravens, you know, playoff loss last year, like 12 things had to go completely haywire for them to, like, have that loss. And I think the same could be said about the Chiefs.

We saw how many times they came back in the playoffs. You know, you got Patrick Mahomes. They have a good pass rush. Chris Jones, Frank Clark. That's obviously typically been very important in the playoffs. And so, yeah, I just think, I mean, anything had happened in the NFL playoffs, but this is like you have so many things have to happen for the Chiefs to lose. I don't know.

I just like that Ravens roster. I like Lamar Jackson in a weird year. And this is, if I'm right and this is the Occam's Razor season and the simplest explanation is the is the most correct, then Lamar Jackson just running dudes over in their face seems like a pretty easy outcome. Again, the same could be said from all. homes, but I don't know. The things I saw last year from Lamar Jackson, I feel like at some point you keep running these simulations, Nora.

And at some point, he went through games zero. By the way, by the way, so much of this is going to come down to seating because only one team now gets the buy. Only one, you know, the home field is probably going to matter so much in a year where travel is so weird. So I just a lot to think about. I think that I think a lot of our preconceived notions because we're all guessing. And teams, by the way, when I'm talking about it, we're talking about,

to GMs or whatever. A lot of them are like, we have no idea what the season's going to look like. Everything is educated guessing, right? And so we're just sitting here in our living rooms on September 3rd or whatever, or December 4th and saying, hey, this is what we think it's going to be like. I think weird things are going to happen. But I want Lamar Jackson running dudes over in my corner. So that's it. All right. This has been the Ringar NFL show, part of the Ringer Podcast Network. I'm Kevin Clark on behalf, Danny Kelly, Caitlin Jones, Norrinciotti. Have a good Labor Day. Have a good season. We'll be back later in the week.