The Ringer NFL Show - Divisional-Round Weekend Picks, Props, and Predictions! | Extra Point Taken

Episode Date: January 19, 2024

Sheil and Ben get you set for the divisional round, which has some amazing matchups and legacies on the line. Can Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs pull off a big playoff win away from Arrowhead? Will C.J. Stroud continue his historic rookie season with an upset victory over Lamar Jackson and the Ravens? Plus, picks, props and nonsense predictions! The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please check out theringer.com/RG to find out more, or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Hosts: Ben Solak and Sheil Kapadia Producer: Cliff Augustin Additional Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The ringer gambling feat is your one-stop shop for all things betting throughout the NFL season. From week one all the way through Super Bowl 58 in Las Vegas, we have you covered every which way. We got our favorite futures. We got props. We'll discuss the lines. And, of course, we'll throw in a few parlets. That's a given. So whether you're a sharp or square better, we'll be breaking it down in terms.

Hopefully, everybody can understand. We'll try to win some money along the way. and be sure to subscribe to the ring of gambling feed on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to Extra Point Taking. Chilke Pottar here joined by Ben Solak, Divisional Round, Weekend, Four Games. Eight teams, four will move on and be within one game.

Other Super Bowl, we'll talk about all of those. We'll talk about our picks, our prompts, our long shots, our contest. Benny Souls, how we doing? Oh, Divisional round? exciting stuff. Lions are in for another week. Means Ben's traveling for another week. Oh, nice. We get Lions Packers of three trips to Detroit in a row. Having a good time. How are we feeling, Shil? How far is Detroit? How long is that drive? Two hours, 10 minutes. Okay. All right. It's nice. It's fun. You get to go to playoff game.

I love it. It's great. The weekend, I took it in the middle of the snowstorm, not as fun. But also then you get there and then you have something to talk about with everybody, which is the important thing, right? You're bumming in all these people you haven't seen an You're bumping into PR, awkward conversations. When everyone knows you just drove through the snow. How are the roads? Ah, it's not that bad. Oh, people don't know how to drive.

Ah, they just do that like 45 times. Love it. Listen, there's nothing I dislike more than that, uh, nontent small talk. Don't talk to me about the weather in an elevator. Uh, I'm not your guy. So I'm glad you have a go-to there that is a smart move. See your wife's beyond your years. All right.

Let's get to it. We don't got time to waste here. We got some big time games. Headliners. Benjamin Solek, what are you going with? Are you going with the obvious? Are you going with a hipster pig? Are you going with something I'm not expecting?

What do you got your eye on this weekend? Yeah, so I will be honest. When I turned in my, I turned my divisional round preview, we did kind of like a roundtable piece for the ringer. I was a little bit late turning it in. So Lindsay, Jones, our editor, who was collecting all of it, hit me up and was like, hey, if you could pick a game other than Bill's Chiefs for games, I'll see, I don't worry about it.

I got you. So I did that in the piece. I won't do that here. of the week is Bill's Chiefs. That's got to be. A bit of a weird divisional round where we have two games where the favorite is about a 10-point favorite. That's Niners, Packers, and Ravens Texans.

Lions, Bucks Lions are a seven-point favorite. And for people who like don't bet, don't care, it's just to say that there's a pretty big margin of expected victory for some of these teams. The winners are, they feel like they're pretty solidly known. Relative to Bill's Chiefs, which, like, everybody knows that's a close game.

Everybody doesn't need a bet to know that that's going to be a tally contested game. to me that's that's the game of the week. The matchup for these two teams is really interesting. We've obviously seen them play before this season. It was a lower scoring game and both offenses. And so there was difficulty there. But we've also seen them play for multiple seasons in the postseason.

We know that Bahamas tends to pull the best out of Josh Allen and kind of get him to play at the highest possible levels because Josh really wants to beat him. Bill still have not yet beaten Mahomes in the postseason yet. And Alan and Mahomes has shared career. there's a ton of schematic juice and, you know, recent rematch, you know, we can look at the film in this. And then there's a ton of year-long juice, kind of multiple year-long. The thing that stands out the most to me is just going to be the play of this Bill's defense. Dealing with an unbelievable amount of injury.

You saw Russell Douglas wasn't able to play last week. Terrell Bernard has been an excellent linebacker for them goes down. So they're continuing to deal with injuries in the back seven. They had a massive list that do not practice this over Wednesday and into Thursday. We're still going to see who comes out on Friday. But the expectation is that when you go back and you look at week one, about half of their week one starters are going to be out for this game in the back seven. And then even some of the guys who came in to replace those dudes are also potentially going to be out. So it's going to be a game where you're going to see Dane Jackson and Kyrie a little bit corner.

This can be a game where you see Tyrell Dodson and A.J. Klein. Actually, Dorian Williams, excuse me, and AJ Klein at linebacker. And you can talk as much as you want about the limitations of the Chiefs passing offense this year. you expect Mahomes to beat Kyrie Elam. You expect Mahomes to beat AJ Klein, even with what this past the game has been. And the more and more they've incorporated Rishi Rice, since week 11 and week 12,

Rishie Rice has gone from a 60% of the snaps player to a 95% of the snaps player. You've seen this passing offense take a little bit of a jump. So I think Bill's defense is in a really tough spot. They need that sort of championship level performance that they're going to hang against the Chiefs. So let me ask you this. So yeah, that's absolutely, you know, the huge story.

Like you said, we're recording this Friday morning. cornerback Christian Benford did not practice Thursday. Linebacker Terrell Bernard did not practice Thursday. Safety Taylor Rap did not practice. Linebacker bail inspector did not practice. Cornerbacker school Douglas was limited. Linebacker Tyrell Dodson was limited. Cornerback Terran Johnson was limited.

This is what like coaches in GM. Hunter Sam Martin, limited, back huge, big. It's not a joke. You're right, actually. I mean, little stuff like that. How many times do we see it in the playoff game? We do hour long previews, and then all of a sudden there's some wonky special teams play or something, and that just decides the game. And everything you talked about is going to come to fruition.

You said it. You said RAMs special teams are losing the game, and then their punt returner. Oh, I thought I had it. And she potted it really fast. And I was like, there's no way she'll almost got that one in. Yeah, so that is good to call out the puncher there. So they've got all these guys banged up. And what coaches and GMs always say is they're like, you can't afford like the plethora of injuries at the same position. And they're like, if you take one guy from here, well, like, all right, fine, you got to build depth on the roster.

But when it's all these linebackers and all these corners, which it is for the Buffalo Bills, and you mentioned, that's already where they're thin. They lost their two best, you know, two of their best defensive players in Matt Milano and Shredavius White earlier in the season. Like, these were already thin areas. And so that is a huge, huge factor. So, you're Sean McDermott. You're prepping for this game. You got Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid on the other side.

You know what you're dealing with. What is your game plan? And I'll tell you my initial thought was this, was that just play it safe. Like just get those safeties deep and force the chief save. And you know from talking to me now for two years that I generally hate this style of defense and never promote the style of defense. However, in this case, has that chief's offense proven, it can string together eight, nine play drives without Joanne Taylor having a false start, without Marcus Valdez Scantling,

unable to locate the ball downfield. Without all these issues, they've had all season long with their skill position players and with their offensive tackles, can they do that? Now, maybe they can. Maybe they can. And you lose that way. But if I'm the bills, I kind of go into this game saying that's how we're going to play defensively.

We think our offense can score. We think our offense can move the ball. Let's just make them work for it and see if they shoot themselves in the foot a little bit. Agree or disagree with that strategy. How do you see it with the ball? Bill's defense given their injury situation. Yeah. When you go back and you watch that week 14 game, what you notice is that the bills were

successful in getting pressure with four. They didn't blitz him too much. They generally forced him to keep the ball underneath. The thing I will say is that the chiefs have been willingly and actively leaving the ball underneath all season, right? That's how they play. Yeah, that's how they have to play. Yeah.

And so you say, you know, do you, like, know, do you really trust the chief string together an eight-played, nine-play drive? The answer was, like, not fully because they certainly haven't been, like, a top five offense over the course of this year. When they did it against the bills, they scored only 17 points. But also, that's what they want to be. That's where they want to be. And so I do, like, I don't mind too deep.

I would like a little, like, let's get on the line of scrimmage. I would like a little, like, you know, let's affect some routes a little bit. Because I think you saw in that game against the Dolphins, if you're going to let Rishik, come off the line and just run a shallow, he's going to hit him in stride. And then chasing that guy is a son of a gun, man. I mean, like, it is not a fun. And like, you are not going to lose to dynamic Travis Kelsey in space. That player isn't around this year. You are not going to lose to dynamic Mikhail Hardman and Cadarius Tony and Richie James touches. They don't trust those receivers enough to get them the ball behind the line of scrimmage on these screens. If you're going to lose to something

in the chiefs where it feels like inevitable, it's going to be Rashire running with the ball after contact and also Isaiah Pacheco running with the ball after contact. So I want to be able to deny those early rice windows, those underneath the rice windows. So I'm okay with like, all right, let's hang too deep. Let's not let Mahomes style on us. But I wouldn't want to be sitting, all right, drop deep and drop intermediate and let everything underneath be connected. So Mahomes has shown this year, like he's going to be an underneath passer.

They were successful getting pressure before, and they were successful beating this line and pass protection. That to me is the key with the chiefs right now is that their tackle play is not super trustworthy. And so if you get them in a point where they're second and past, third and past, The chiefs have a nice, like, 12 personnel, condensed set, play action pass menu. They do. They like to do that.

I don't want to claim that they don't. But they do it on early downs. When they're in late downs, they're going to spread it out and kind of let Mahomes get a picture and have them operate on the field. And once you're five against four in the trenches, you feel like you can win. And then it's, as always the challenge with pressuring Mahomes is get him down and don't let him turn it into scrambles. Don't let him turn into explosives, right?

He had a lower than average explosive rate in this game against the Bills and critically, a much lower than average scramble rate in this game against the bills, one of his lowest scramble games of the entire season. I don't think that would be the case in this game, right? And you were on Patrick Mahomes' rushing yards last week. Mahomes just tends to rush the ball a lot more in the postseason. And so when you're going to rush with four, you know you can win with that, but you have to acknowledge he's going to get out and kind of get his.

You have to be cognizant of that. Yeah, maybe a big Gregory Rousseau game if the, if the Bills win this one. And also, you know, like, if you get that edge pressure, Ed Oliver has had a fantastic season for a career season for the Bills this year. So there are avenues. It's funny looking at that first Bill's Chiefs matchup. It really was a microcosm of the Chiefs year. I mean, if you look at success rate, it was a great game, like one of their best games of the season. But it's like you said, they have to play a certain way. Not have to. I don't want to say happen because they take, like they have opportunities, you know, with Marcus Valdes Scantling and to push the ball downfield. They have not come through. with those. I mean, you look at all the explosive play stuff. They're middle of the pack. Patrick Mahomes in that game, average 6.3 yards per attempt. So even though they were successful and methodical and efficient on a play-by-play basis, they scored two touchdowns on 10 possessions in that game. So that's going to be, you know, maybe the formula again here, but you capitalize on some of those scoring opportunities. Mahomes was below average and scramble rate. They were below average as an

offense. I'm just talking about over their season long games. Below average and scramble rate, they were below averaging yards after the catch and they were above average and pressure. That's the and the bills won that game. That's that those are your three tick boxes. I mean, coaches, we got to be at least this good on third down. We'll be at least good at resident, whatever. For me, like Ben's coach boxes are you have to make sure they're below average and yeah and make sure they're below average and scramble rate.

Like that's how you're going to lose to his offense is Mahomes getting out of the pocket and scrambling and beating you with his legs and they're getting the ball underneath with players in stride and that allows for she rice to turn up field and run. That allows like me Cole and I and Pacheco and even Kelsey like to beat you. with the ball in their hands because it's the connection that's the issue for the Chiefs. You stay there and you're able to pressure him. You're going to have a good day on defense.

Now, a good day on defense got you to, if Cadarius Tony lined up correctly, when you lost. And that's the challenges then on the other side of the ball here. We kind of forgot about it because all the visibility on the Chief's offense and they've incurred some injury. This Chief's defense is still gnarly.

I mean, this Chief's defense is still such a headache. And Gabe Davis, more Bill's injuries we haven't talked about, No Gabe Davis at practice Wednesday, no gave Davis to practice Thursday. So you're looking at Stefan Diggs and Khalil Shakir, which Diggs hasn't really been having a great stretch down the last few games against this corner room. I mean, it's clear Chiefs advantage in the passing game in that regard, which is not a thing we've said about the Bill's passing offense a lot in many years,

but it is clear advantage to the Chiefs in terms of coverage. You have the answer the Duncan King, Dawson Knox question. You'll lose the linebackers a little bit, linebacker coverage-wise, not in not your strength. You've had safety injuries, but still like if you're the chiefs you're like we can glove these guys up we can and last time we saw them they kind of were doing some new stuff Joe Brady had taken over and we were getting used to it and okay they're going to involve James Cook more this way yeah yeah whatever now you've seen it a lot more

like there's there's a chance that like Mahomes Allen part three you know in the playoffs ends like 14 to 9 yeah I mean the first game was 2017 right was the final uh score of that yeah you know you're I had the same impression rewatching that Bill's Chief's game I forgot about it. I mean, second half, Bill's offense couldn't do it. I mean, it really shouldn't have been that close of a game. If they can score on one of those drives, they had multiple possession. I think three possessions in a row where they came away with nothing in that game. And I thought Spags really had Allen's head spending quite a bit there in the second half. He was holding on to the football forever. I think his average time to throw was like 3.3 seconds in that game. When the Chiefs

played zone coverage, it was Allen's lowest success rate of the entire season. They didn't just play zone. They always mix it up. We know they're going to play man. They can do different things. They did fine playing man also, but I think just the disguise, the rotations, and yet just the matchups with their corners against these bills wide receivers. It's wild to say, but the chiefs do have an edge there. So I think this is a, I feel like I'm going against my type with all these takes here, but this is a run the ball type game for the bills. I mean, they've got that physical downhill rushing attack. Their offensive line has been. healthy. And last week, I said, hey, maybe the dolphins can run the game in the weather. And you

made the good point that the dolphins, their style of run game is not exactly the kind of style that gives the Chiefs issues. The bills, I think, let's see, I want to see if you agree, are a different animal. I mean, this is duo. This is downhill. This is physical, offensive linemen. So that Chief's defense, 27th in DVOA against the run. You have James Cook, you have Josh Allen. I do think this is a game where they're going to try to get after it with their run game. Yeah, no, Ty Johnson has become kind of the rotation back behind Cook as well, who's a bigger body. That's the way you want to operate.

Yeah, this line, this bill's offensive line is, it's so frustrating that everything else around the bills has fallen apart. It's to be such a nice story of the season where every single bill's, oh, Josh Allen, it's the fun digs, and incredible throwing the football. And the issue for them on offense has been the play of this offensive line running game and passing game. This entire offensive line has improved. They've been healthy and the same starters for almost the entirety of the, for the entirety of the entire of the, this season. The only lost one snap in the postseason for, it was McGovern, I think, who went down and came back in. Uh, so they've had continuity. Dion Dawkins left tackle is dramatically improved. I think Mitch Morse is playing better ball in these playing in recent years.

Like this is a, Spencer Brown's gotten better. This is, this line has been excellent. You, uh, you, you can win this in the trenches against the chiefs. No one's done it in a bit because Chris Jones is playing an excellent ball and George Carl Loftus, who's their outside edge rush or Charles Omenah who coming back from suspension, but a really nice duo there in the outside, you can beat the chiefs in the trenches because if you can get to that second level and get to those linebackers, you can be successful. Just a hard thing to do. So the, the, uh, the, uh, Bill's offense versus Chief's defense matchups, right?

Where it's like, uh, you know, okay, Sneed gets over Duncan Cade in the slot or if it's Chris Jones against that interior or if it's, if it's, if it's, Carloth that's against Spencer Brown. Like the matchups there are very rich and like really interesting and define the game. I've never even remotely approached a Bill's chief's game. being less interested in either quarterback than I am right now. Right? Which is like, I'm a home.

Like, you're just chucking the ball, only six yards past line of scrimmage, and you're running around discrimming, you're amazing, and you're amazing. And you're amazing. You're great. You're so good, but you're going to throw two bad picks. Like, I kind of, you know, you guys have already made it clear for me what's going on this season. The other guys in this game, those are some of the matches that are really interesting.

But from a narrative perspective, it's always, it's always, it's always, I mean, well, because, like, you're right about the offensive line. It's like, the bills can just never get everything to line up. you know in these seasons like the defense the o line did the the supporting cast ally it's the coaching like it's just it's one year it's this one year it's that and they're always in the mix they can never get it to line up but can i mean they're favorite think about that like you know uh six weeks ago if i said the bills will be favorites in the divisional round with a chance to go to the asc championship you would have been like what in the world happened with their season so you've got

that with all and then my homes like listen i i am having the a lot of the a lot of the little anxiety at counting this chief's team out a month ago or whenever it was, that was one of my takes on extra point taken because, man, they're, there are two games away. And it's just, it never feels good to be going up against that guy. Can he just drag this team? Like every, you know, even for Brady, like the greats, like every year's different, every team's different. Sometimes you're just a juggernaut and other teams. It's just like, all right, that's why you pay this guy. That's why he's the best because he can just drag him along with them. And we're just going to be looking out in Vegas a few weeks from now. And there's Patrick Mahomes,

once again on stage at opening night of the Super Bowl, and they're back in the Super Bowl. So those are the narratives with this game. Are you picking this game, Ben, for one of your three? Okay. All right, then we'll wait. We'll wait for that and we'll, of course, pick every game. All right, let's take a break. I was going to go with, like, I could go with a different headliner, but we're going to talk about all these games throughout, you know, there's only four games. We're going to talk about all of us. I'm picking the other three. So we'll talk about those as we go throughout the show.

We'll take a break. We'll come back. We'll get to our Monday morning storylines. When it comes to the NFL playoffs, you've got to win one game at a time. But when you bet the NFL playoffs on Fanduil, one game can mean a lot of wins. Fandol, America's number one sportsbook has all your favorite bets, like the money line and the spread, plus all sorts of prop bets. Betts I like this week. I do have the Texans plus nine and a half against the Ravens.

Lions minus six and a half against the Buccaneers and the Chiefs plus two and a half and a half and that money line against the bills. And right now, every day there's an NFL playoff game. Fandwell is giving all customers a no sweat same game parlay. That means when you combine all your bets for a chance at a bigger payday, you'll get bonus bets back if your same game parlay doesn't win. So visit fandle.com slash ringer NFL if you don't already have an account. Make every moment more with Fandle, an official sportsbook partner of the NFL.

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What do you got? We are talking about Ravens look vulnerable after a close win against Texans. That's what I think is going to be. Close win. All righty. They go all the way. Close win. Well, no, because they're going to win the game.

That's why I can't make the narrative. Ravens lose is obviously a better headline. You don't think it's going to happen. Yeah, you're whoever, let's put it, I'll put it, I'll frame it this way. Whoever comes out of Bill's Chiefs, so I think that's going to be a question, right? Whoever comes out. That team is going to get a lot of like, oh, you know, the Ravens are here for the first time, you know, Lamar in the postseason, I haven't seen it.

Or even if the Texans win it, oh, C.J. Stroud, first time he's a rookie. It's incredible, you know, whatever. and they're going to be on up against Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes. Either going to be Mahomes, who's been in every AFC championship games that he started, or Josh Allen, who, like, Allen's obviously also like, you know, this is new for him and this is big for him, but he's got a lot more playoff experience and he's got a lot more legacy to him. Whoever comes out of that game is going to be getting a lot of, like, you know, they're going to be the team that makes the run, right?

It's going to be them. Versus whoever comes out of Texans Ravens, unless the Ravens demolish them, right? And they win by 40. I think you're going to see, like, all right, like, Texans we don't trust. or like Ravens, Lamar Jackson in the playoffs who, oh, which Lamar Jackson in the playoffs is one of the silliest things in the entire world. Like, they ran into

D&Ps and DENPs, DENPs, they played the Titans in 2019, and the Titans defense ran a defense that nobody ever ran again or before. They had every player within like eight yards of the line of scrimmage. And also they had like seven, I think seven drops in that game. I mean, there was

some fluking, their defense did not play well in that game. I covered that, I remember covering that game and I wrote a like column about and it was kind of like no no this isn't just like a referendum on Lamar Jackson and who the comments on that bad boy were all over the place so I agree with you there yes everybody wanted it to be and it was like they ran into such like a designer nonsense game where like it it very and this was five years ago they have a different OC Lamar's a different player like it means nothing to me with that said that week one game against Texans ravens

all right Ravens won that thing 25 to 9 and I don't remember it was it was one of the first things I wrote about in the column in week one, where I remember writing being like, this was 25 to 9, but this was way closer than 25 to 9 would indicate. The Texas held the Ravens to negative E-paper dropback. They were below 40% success rate on offense. They pressured Lamar on 39% of his dropbacks. They sacked him on 15% of his dropbacks. They caused multiple turnovers.

A lot of them explicitly because of pressure. And the Ravens were like a mess in their offensive operations, something we talked about a lot early in the season. And they're way better now than they were. but D'emico and this Texan's defense understands, like D'emiko particularly understands structurally how you got to deal with a guy like Lamar. But you have to be willing to be willing to win with four and then win with six and then win with four, but it's not the four that you thought you were going to bring.

If they were to get early pressure on him and the first guy's never going to get him down, you have to send the guy and then send the second guy with the expectation of the second guy thinks that the first guy's mess. D'Amico has an understanding of how to deal with star quarterback. It has this time with Houston. And I, since the time of San Francisco, excuse me, I like the way that he handled Lamar. I also think that matchup-wise, what a lot of people don't realize,

like I was on this Texan team against the Colts and they won big. I was on this Texas team against the Browns and they won big. Why are they doing this? Because defensively, they're a lot better than they were in that week one game. Defensively, they're a lot more improved. Since Week 11, Shield, this Texan defense is 10th by a success rate. This is the, when this defense got Derek Stingley back, and then they've had absentees of Will Anderson and John Grenard,

but over the second, like, chunk of the season, getting healthy overall in the team, they got Jalen Petrie back, and he was a little bit shaky when he came back, and then he's been healthier. This has been a legitimately solid defense. I don't think they're a, we're so good,

we're going to hold the Ravens to 13 points defense. I do think they're, we're going to hold the Ravens instead of some sevens. We're going to take the ball away from the Ravens in midfield to the defense. You know Lamar loves to fumble the football for no freaking reason.

You know he's running around back there with two fingers on the ball, just like, duck in and swimming and jumping and driving and just all sorts of pocket nonsense all the balls on the ground. They're going to get theirs against the Ravens, right? And the Ravens had these emphatic wins against the 49ers and they've had wins against the Browns. They've had these great performances against these top defenses. But they love to shoot themselves in the foot against high pressure teams and high blitz teams. That's always been Lamar. So the

attractions are going to get theirs defensively. And I think that there's so much about see just around Nico Collins. People don't realize Damico has really gotten blood from a stone in this unit. But the proof of the put in is in the eating now. Like this unit can play. They like Will Anderson, John Grenard, they can pressure. Derek Stingley, Jaylon Peter, got Denzel Perryman back. They have

enough coverage guys. And then you see DiMico on the sidelines just tell him Christian Harris how the interception. That was awesome. What a clip for people who haven't seen it. They have unbelievably well coached on that side of the ball. I think the Texans got way more teeth on defense that people realize. That's one of the reasons why I've been betting on this team and and have been

enjoying this team down the stretch. And then offensively, we kind of already know what they can potentially be in terms of the explosive plays that they're going to get. DJ Straub can throw them into games. They're not a good running team and they're not a good rush defense. I think that's what's going to kill them in this one, is that I think they're going to really struggle to keep this on a game script where they can get Lamar and constant dropbacks and they can also keep their offense balance. I think that they might fall behind and have to just throw the way back in and throw the way back in and throw the way back in. But they are capable of doing that. And so I think game script is going to hurt them. I think rush defense is going to hurt them. Overall,

I don't think they're mature enough and talented enough to win, but it's really quite something to see how much De Beagle's gotten out of this defense, let alone Bobby Slowick and his head coaching interviews out of this offense. I think they're going to run into a good team and lose, but I think the Texas is going to put up a real good fight. And then coming off of that, we're going to have more Lamar playoff questions as he approaches a career-defining game against Patrick Holmes, Josh Allen. Yes, statistically the Texans have had a good rushing defense. I think they're second in rushing DVOA, but I kind of... Oh, excuse me. No, it's bad rushing offense.

I apologize. Yeah, they can't run the ball. And when they get into trouble, it's when they're wasting, you know, they're trying to establish it a little too much. Now, I know sometimes you're doing that to set stuff up later in the game. I get it. But I would, like, if they can't run the ball early in this game, I would not like to see them stay committed to the run.

I would like to see them say, this is our quarterback. Ravens don't have Marlon Humphrey. Let's put the ball in his hands and see what happens. and try to win the game. But yeah, you're right about this. You know, I've had questions about this Texan's defense. Stingley was awesome last week. On film, I was like, Grenard is just, I mean, underrated player.

My boy. Like his bull rush. Oh, my gosh, I think it was against the right tackle last week. I mean, he has different ways to win and he can get after it. And the Ravens tackle situation, like they've been rotating tackles. They've had this weird tack. So, like, that is an area where you can get after them a little bit. I think that's probably their best.

Is he not rotating Stanley in the playoffs? I have no idea. To get him to the playoffs, you think it was? To keep him fresh for the playoffs. If we get to the divisional round, or they're still doing a left tackle rotation, I'm going to be like, John Harbaugh, come here. I got to talk to you real quick.

Well, I don't know. You never know with injury stuff. I mean, I don't know. He might be on account. There might be only so much he can handle. He's had injury issues over the year. So I don't know what they're going to do, but either you're dealing with the guy

who has not been playing full-time snaps or you're dealing with multiple guys or whatever. So that's been a strength of, of the Texans is their, is their edge pressure for sure. And that clip, Ben was referring to, for those who haven't seen it, it's awesome. It's Domeko Ryan's on the sideline with the tablet to Christian Harris explaining exactly what to do. And then they go back on the field and Christian Harris has a pick six. I mean, that was that that's one of the clips of the playoffs, I think. That has to be the clip of the playoffs so far. And then you want, you want, you want a little like, uh, lip service,

fan service culture conversation real quick. Nothing out of that from the Texans, right? Nothing out of that from the coaches staff, nothing out of that from the player either. We like, you know, do we go tells Christian Harris about how to get a pixel side. Christian Harris could have told a reporter. Nope, that's not what we do here. Right? And that's, like, I eat that up.

I, be honest, I completely eat that up. But it's like, I like, we just keep in house. Then all of a sudden, NFL films puts it out and whatever. See, me as the former beat reporter, I'm like, you know, like, come on, that would have been a great day after story, you know, you guys. somebody you know Christian come on my man let's give me give me something here the uh you brought up john grenard and i made noises because when you're like a drastic like i am i right i always make noises i'm not like i'm not like a miles garret fan i'm a john grannard fan so i have like a decent

grade on you know what i'm saying like this is this is the this is one of this is their football hipster society it's been a while you know pathologies uh john granard well he he came out of florida but he was a louville transfer and he was at louville with lamar jackson and uh i i i spoke with him during the draft process and he was very adamant that one time of practice he successfully tackled lamar jackson and that lamar will claim it didn't happen but he did and there's video and you can find it so john grenar has been john garland likes playing against lamar he feels very strongly about 2017 Louisville cardinal practices and his ability to tackle lamar jackson so the fun narrative matchup there between the two of them yeah it's um uh Anderson and grenard for the next four or five years we're going to be

talking about him and everybody knows Anderson's name because he's early pick grenard Sheldon rank against Malik Collins on the inside. Derek Barnett's made hay with them. He's found a home with them. Cut out of Philadelphia, ex-first round, again, a second chance with a new team. He's been disruptive. Their rush is legitimate. And if you're going to beat Lamar, you're going to do it by pressuring him.

But not just with four. If you do it with four, he's too smart. And he can get away from one and get away from two and then he's in space. You have to win with four. And then despite your best intentions as a coordinator, you have to say, all right, we've won with four. Now let's win with six for no reason. But you have to be willing to throw him different pitches. You throw him on the same pitch.

Ask the Brown, spell him on the same pitch over and over again. You're going to lose. All right. So my Monday morning storyline somewhat similar, Ben, I think one of these young buck star QBs, and I'm talking about CJ Stroud or Jordan Love, is still alive. I don't know which one. I wish I could tell you which one. I think one of them is pulling off the upset.

that you had the great call last week where you said, is there going to be like a CJ shroud, Joe Burrow-ish type run here in him? And then I'm watching those games last week. And I'm like, one of these guys could do it. Like, I don't know. They could both get blown out. The Niners and Ravens have been juggernauts this season. They've been the best two teams in the NFL.

Like you said, they're both nine and a half point favorites. But I think one of these guys is going to be able to do enough. We're Monday morning. we're just like, all right, this is the next. I mean, we've already been doing it because we like to be a week ahead with our hype or months ahead with our hype. So we've been doing it with Stroud and Love. But I think nationally, the story is going to be one of these two quarterbacks

is going to be playing in the championship game with a chance to get to the Super Bowl way earlier than anyone could have possibly expected and the hype is going to get out of control. So let me ask you this question. If you had to pick one to win the game. out right, who would it be the Packers or the Texans? Texan. Texans, Texas is a more complete team, offense and defense. I think that the Ravens are more beatable for the Texans than the Packers for the Niners,

just because Packers' defense against Niners' offense. The matchup. It's going to be an unpleasant viewing experience for the state of Wisconsin and all surrounding areas. I just have a lot of doubt in that side of the ball in this particular matchup. if you put the Texans against the Packers for me straight up on a neutral field. Oh. Let me look at my numbers really quick.

Let me look at my numbers really quick. The noises. Again, Texans versus Packers on a neutral field, I think I would take the Texans. Texans, I think I would have Texans, Packers. Like,

I would have them like minus two. But the second I say that, I'm like, okay, well, I'm taking Jordan Love with the points against, like, that pastcom,

right? The secondary with the, with the number of weapons, it went the versatility. Oh, let's get a Texas Packers Super Bowl, just for as a treat. It would be a very interesting game. No, I like this take. I think that, like, obviously, I think the Texans are, I think they're going to cover. We're talking with that in a little bit.

Packers, Niners, draw for me the world in which the Packers win this game. Okay, I will. The Packers offense turns in one of the more efficient games of the season. They're stringing together long drives. Aaron Jones is having a nice game. Jordan Love isn't missing, and they are shrinking the number of possessions that the 49ers have. So in a typical game, an offense might have 11 possessions. In this game, the 49ers are only going to have eight possessions because the Packers' offense is going to be on the field for a long time sustaining these drives.

The Packers defense is going to play a high variance style of game. This is not what I just said the bill should do. They're going to throw everything like they have at the wall in this game. And guess what? If they give up 65-yard touchdowns, that's okay. Because it's all about stealing one, maybe two possessions with a turnover, with a sack, with a negative play. And potentially, Rich Basascia is going to have to talk to Matt LaFleur and say, you know what?

I know our special teams hasn't been good at all, been one of the worst in the NFL this season. But I've been working on a couple things here. I've been working on a little fake punt. I've been working on an on-and-side kick. Listen, we're nine and a half point under-dard. dogs here. Let's not be afraid. Let's not play conservative in this game. If we come out and we kick off in the second half and you want to try to steal a possession because it doesn't matter if the Niners start at their own 25 or their own 45, let's give it a shot here. I think we can

catch them off guard. That's the type of game where the Packers win. As you can tell, I've been thinking a lot about this. The problem is in order for that Rich Passacha in Mat LaFleur universe to exist, Matt LaFleur has to be willing to doubt Joe Barry, which is we have seen for last three years, Matt LaFleurr will refuse to do at all turns for some reason. There you go. All right. So we'll talk more about that game as well. All right.

You know what time it is. It is contest. Time. Solac and I going into the final three weekends of the NFL season with our season long contest, where every week we can earn up to seven points. We have three locks of the week. Those are picks against the spread. We have one prop of the week.

anything minus 130 or better, that's worth one point. And then we have our long shot of the week, plus 150 or better. That is worth three points. You can get a total of seven points in any given week. So, Lack, where are we after the wild card round? We are one point difference, show. How? How is this possible? 19 weeks and it's a one point difference? It's unbelievable. You had a 5-point week. I had a 2-point week. Congratulations to you for yet again hitting a long shot.

Dak Prescott over 300 passing yards. Exactly how I imagined it. That's not the way you thought you were going to hit it, and I know it isn't. But still, listen, passing yard over is getting you in garbage time. Congratulations, he cleared 300. Would have cleared 400, brother. Nice and easy cash. Badge Lombs over 20 and a half rushing yards.

I hit for you as well. And then you had the Packers plus seven on the road against the cash. Cowboys. We also had the Browns against the Texans and the Dolphins against the Chiefs. Continuing your stretch of locks of the week having a tougher time than the other categories. For me, I also stayed with Locks to the League being my only successful category. I had the Chiefs against the Dolphins and the Bucks against the spread against the Eagles. And then the rest of my bets were affected by Steelers bills.

I sat on the Thursday pot. It was like, I'm over indexed to this game. And then they moved the game like eight hours later. And I was like, right, sick. I had Steelers plus 10 against the bills. Look like we had a chance to get there for a little. little bit. And then the Steelers faded down the stretch. Even that last possession, we had a chance for a backdoor cover. Mason Rudolph scrambled on that.

No, Mason, just chucking it to the end zone. Come on. So like, we're both on Steelers here. Yeah, which, you know, you were thinking about the outs. I was like, yeah, no, this has been dead in the waters since day one. Or excuse me, since the first nap. Now, I had Najee Harris have over 60 and a half rushing yards. He's been a big part of the running game the last few weeks. They don't run the ball as much. They used Jail and Warren in the rushing game. He stays under. And then my long shot was an under for Chiefs Dolphins, which got home, and an under for Bill's Steelers, which was not played in the snow and accordingly did not get home at all. So two points for me, five points for you. Like I said, it is now 60 to 59.

I am hitting locks at 58 percent. You were hitting locks at 37 percent. I'm hitting props at 32 percent. You were hitting props at 58 percent. And then long shots of the week, 37 percent for me. And still a whopping 47 percent for Sheal-Copadia. 60 to 59 entering divisional round. And if you didn't listen last week, first of all, shame on you.

But we will continue this in the championship round in the Super Bowl. Those will each be worth. Those will each be seven point weeks. We'll pick the games. We'll do our long shot. And then we'll have random other wagers to fill it out to get up to seven points. Listen, you should do the listener Chris. I gave a shout out last week.

Do the listener Chris special. Take Solek on the picks against the spread. take me on the props in the long shot and you're making money this year. Okay, that's what he's doing. That's what you should be doing. All right. Let's get to it. Prop of the week, Benny Souls, what do you got? I like Sam LaPorteur. I have over 41 and a half receiving yards. Receptions was where I was initially looking. Right now, it's over four and a half with juice. So I'm just going to take the 41 and a half. Will it bite me probably. Buccaneers, biggest tight end target funnel defense we had over the course of the season. No team.

No defense has a higher percentage of their targets allowed go to tight ends than the Buccaneers have over the course of this season. And success rate against tight-end targets, they actually haven't been that bad. It's just a function of structurally when you're going to blitz linebackers this much. You're going to firstly create gaps underneath, right, in the underneath voids. You're also going to encourage teams to find ways to use their tight ends in the passing game and look for explosive gains. You're going to encourage teams to say, okay, if they're going to tend pressure packages

and have edge rushers dropping off and have the tackle's dropping off, well, we'll leave the tight-end end in for a beat and then we'll just release him and get on the ball. And we think he can win against some of these matchups. Obviously, a linebacker for the Bucks has been a little bit of a fraught position. Start the season with Levanta David and Devin White. You have some Devin White problems. KJ. Brick gets out onto the field. They have a little bit of a rotation now.

It's still a position that I think is eminently getable in the passing game. And you know that the lines will prioritize getting the ball to Sam LaPorteur. Last week, three for three on targets, only for 14 yards. He was coming off of that knee injury, that hyper extension. Pretty clearly was a. you wouldn't be playing unless it was a playoff situation. He'd go out there for two snaps. They'd move him around.

Like, oh, look, it's Sam Leporta. You have to care. And then he would get off the field for two snaps. And every time he was off the field, like, the coach was like patting his head and being like, you're doing great, buddy. He isn't a lot of pain. Not sure Sam Leporta knew what state he was in in terms of just like his general mental well-being in that one.

A week removed, I expect him to be more efficient. I expect him to be more effective getting down the field. And so over 41.5 receiving yards for Sam Leporta. Leporto also a high Blitz target for Jared Gough. Third receiver on the team behind him on Ra and Jemir Gibbs, in terms of target per route against the Blitz. They're going to use him, I think, pretty heavily against this Todd Bulls team. That's a good one, yeah.

Blitz, RPA, bucks are vulnerable to the RPO game. Also a spot where he could get some targets there. So I like that one. I haven't gone with, you know, as Luke, our spreadsheet, who puts together the spreadsheet for the contest notes on there. he's got the grouch bet who were one of us picking under and i feel like we haven't been picking unders in a long time i was going through and i like an under this week i'm going rachad white bucks running back under 53 and a half rushing yards this lion's run defense first in dv oa this

buck's rushing offense 28th in rushing dv oa this is one of the biggest mismatches of the weekend on paper now i say on paper because anytime you're late it's a The one game playoff for Shod White could have a 40-yard run on the first play from the line of scrimmage. That would not surprise me. But during the regular season, the Bucks really ran the ball at, I think, a league average rate on early downs and they weren't good at it. Last week, though, if you look at it against the Eagles, they came out and they're like, we're throwing the football on early downs. They can't stop us. This is our best chance to win.

And I sort of feel like that might be the case here against Detroit as well. It's an indoor game. You don't have to worry about whether you've got matchups. like on the outside. The Lions have been way more vulnerable to the past than the run this season. And so I think the Bucks might look at this and say, hey, let's do what we did last week and let's throw the football here on early downs. Now, Rashad White generally gets a lot of touches, so it makes me a little nervous. Again, if he just breaks off one and doesn't do anything in the rest of the game, I probably still lose this bet. So that makes me a little bit nervous.

But I think the game script could also work in my favor here. You know, if the Lions get out to a big lead at some point and the bucks are throwing the football. So 53 and a half under on Rashad White rushing yards. There you go. What do you think? Lyons defense, man. Top against the run. I'm telling you this is not, is that not as bad of a defense as people think. Coverage over wide receiver one is notwithstanding. There you go. All right. Next up, we have our long shot of the week. This is the one. If you just get this right and don't get anything else right, like you're feeling okay. You're still in it. You can't have a terrible week.

What do you guys? You would know, Shiel. Yeah, I know. Yeah, that has been my strategy. I shouldn't say strategy. That has been my formula all year. I would like to get everything right. All right. This has to be plus 150 or better. Dolak. What do you got? I have Christian Watson. I have at least 40 receiving yards for the Green Bay Packers. Really? Wow. This is an interesting one. Explain it to me. So here's the thing. I want as much exposure to the Packers passing offense because I I very much expect this team to have to throw the ball for much of the game, right? And you brought up, they're going to want to run it.

I think the 49ers run defense is beatable. I think they're going to want to give the ball to Aaron Jones. And we just saw them against Dallas. Oh, you know, generally an early lead and then we'll go from there. Awesome. The problem is, I don't think that's going to be easily done against the Niners. We obviously just had the visibility of it. We just had the moment of seeing it against the 49ers.

I don't think this can be the case. Watson was a sub-packaged player for them against the nineers. the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the way, right? He ran a few routes to start the game, and then he pretty much just stopped playing. Uh, he had, all of the snaps came in the first and the second quarter. They took him out, and they became a run, the football team. When they're, when they're going to actually push the ball down the field, when they're going to need to generate explosives, you're going to see Watson get back on the field and get out there more often, right? I think they were a heavy 12 personnel team and

multiple tight ends, heavy 13 personnel team. I, I, they're going to have to have more receivers on the field against the 49ers. So now you're looking okay, like, like, somewhat like, this, this, this, this Packers passing offense, it's tough to nail down. Different people pop off different weeks. I was on Romeo Doves under last week. He had a career game. That's how it goes sometimes when you're betting the Packers. The wide receivers rotate all over.

So you can go, okay, you can get Dantavian Wicks to have over 50 yards. You can have Jayden Reed to go over 60 yards. You can have Romeo Dubs to go over 50 yards. Like all of those qualify for this bet. So you go, okay, who are we figuring out? I think they're going to go for Watson because of the explosive play of the downfield play. He doesn't get his downfield targets.

And this 49ers defense is extremely good. good at preventing explosive past. They have been all season. But you can also get him this by throwing behind the line of scrimmage and having him run with the football, which is what I like to do against the 49ers. They're a good tackling team, but they'll tend to give you space. They'll tend to line you up with guys off and go from there. And so I was between Reed and Watson as to the player that I wanted to say, okay, this is going to be the guy who gets the explosive pass. I've bet on D'Otavian Wicks a lot this season. His numbers have kind of a little bit higher than I think they should be. Watson has a nice neat number, 40 yards plus 152, so it just barely clears

our threshold for a long shot. So I said, okay, that's a sign. I'll take Christian Watson. Someone's going, is having big receiving numbers on this Packers team. So I'm going to try to get to that number with Christian Watson, 40 plus receiving yards. And that is the area of the 40. I mean, they're so, I think that the best team in the NFL defending the middle of the field. And so they force you, if there is a weakness, and again, I'm not saying it's a big weakness. They have an excellent defense. They have an excellent past defense. But, you know, you go in 11 personnel. They're in Nickel and are some of those corners, Lenore, Ambrie Tommy, like, are those guys a little bit getable there? I know Thomas is in the slot. But I think you have some opportunities.

You obviously don't want him getting matched up against Chervarius Ward out there. But okay, that's an unexpected one. I feel like I feel like you're generally, you're not a big Christian Watson guy in general, correct? No, I'm not. I'm a big, I bet on a lot of of Packers receivers over the course of the season. Because a lot of the Packers receivers have these weird like two reception 58 yard games, which are nice to bet into because you can get under receptions

and over yards. But the two games before, Watson missed most of the last month the season with injury. The two games before he missed, he was nine he had a nine touches for 86 yards and five touches for 94 yards, right? The two games before he went down with injury, they were really starting to get him sparked and then he goes down and that's kind of been

a story for Christian Watson. He comes back in this game. Okay, he's unhealthy, he's limited. They, the Florida admitted in week 18 that he had played some gamesmanship with him where he was like, he might play against the Bears, and they always knew he wasn't going to play. So I think injury-wise, once they saw they were up 17 against the Packer, the Cowboys,

they were like, all right, we don't really need to mess around with the Christian Watson thing right now. I think that his low snap count and accordingly low betting numbers are not indicative of how he's going to be used if he's back closer to full health in this game, which I expect him to be. So Christian Watson, I think it's going to be your, one of your guys for your Packers' offense.

year or they're actually me this week. All right. I'm going with a very square pick here. Shout out to the swifties out there, many of you, listening. I've taken the under on Kelsey, Travis Kelsey, multiple times this year. I'm using him as my long shot of the week. I'm taking 80 plus receiving yards for Travis Kelsey. This isn't even a plus. This is a plus 188. I mean, talk about a sign that a guy's feeling himself. You know, I almost did a lower number and then attach something to it, but I said, keep it simple. Shield last week, which is DAC Press Cup 300 passing yards. This year, this week, Travis Kelsey, 80 plus receiving yards.

So here's the reasoning. First meeting, Travis Kelsey, week 14, 10 targets, caught 6 for 83 in that game. Last year, 8 for 108 on 10 targets against Buffalo. This is the playoff. Patrick Mahomes is an underdog. Do you think he's going to be trusting all the, these other guys, or do you think he's going to be throwing the ball to Travis Kelsey? Again, I think...

Very heavy Kelsey target distribution against the dolphins. They hammered him, early hammered him often, yeah. You're going to get a lot of zone coverage here. You know, Travis Kelsey freelance, find that green grass, find that open space. Patrick Mahomes, like you mentioned, scramble around a little bit, make a play downfield. Bill's potentially banged up at linebacker in the middle of the field here. And so I think Kelsey's going to get a lot of looks in the passing game. Game script stuff, doesn't it?

Like, I think it's going to be a close game. I think there's going to be either a two-minute drive at the end of the first half or at the end of the game where they're going to have to move the football. And so I think he's going to get opportunities. I'm hoping he makes enough play. Just get me one of those where you break a tackle, maybe a little stiff arm. You know, you get up. You're all excited.

Everyone's going nuts. The camera goes to, is Taylor Swift going to be at this? I would assume she would be at this game, right? Is she going to Buffalo? Yeah. In Buffalo, Highmark. Right. There you go.

How far are we into the pond? We need to bring the fact that the bills get to play. the Chiefs at home for the first time any team is playing Patrick Mahomes on the road in the postseason. Big deal, man. Big deal. But also I feel like this has talked about like Patrick Mahomes isn't going to struggle on the road. It doesn't matter really where he plays. It is interesting.

It's interesting. Yes. Okay. I'll say this. Okay. If the Chief's first road game were against the Ravens in the playoffs, I think it'd be like, okay, well, Mahomes not going to struggle on the road. So what are we doing?

Against the Bills, who I've lost to this team twice in Arrowhead. and then fought tooth and nail to get back to the two seat. It successfully did so. And then beat the Steelers. Everybody shoveling out of the stadium again this week. They're shoveling out. I'm obsessed with the stadium shovel out, by the way. Would you be a stadium shovel out guy?

What's you? You know me well enough to know there is zero chance. I'm going down to the stadium. I was just, I believe it's snowing here. I'm literally looking out of the driveway going, can I convince the kids that it'll be fun for them to shovel the driveway and the sidewalk here so that I don't have to. No, I am not a stadium. I do like it. You know what, though? It's like, it is a unique aspect. And those fans are fantastic. I love

seeing all the photos, but no, I would not be joining. I want to go, I want to go interview these folks so bad. I feel like they got to be everybody who's shoveling out there, I feel like it's got to be awesome. I would be a stadium shoveling. I love being out in the snow. And I feel like the idea of shoveling my part of the stadium, my 1% of the stadium for the Buffalo Bills, I find that very romantic. Regardless, I think the, I think the, I think it's less about the chiefs are on the road and more about the fact that the bills get this guy at home. I think that that's a meaningful impact of this game for Buffalo. Because they feel very strongly about their home stadium.

They feel very strongly about their home field environment. And in particular, they really want to beat this guy. And they finally get him in their place. They finally get him on their turf. I think that's meaningful to the team. So I do think there's some juice on the Buffalo side of things in terms of the home field advantage. Oh, yeah. I mean, that crowd's going to be awesome.

It's always an awesome crowd. But specifically in this spot, there's no doubt about it. is just, you know, I think Mahomes' performance in this game would probably be similar, whether they're at Arrowhead or whether they're on the road. And they could struggle. They have not been, they've been very uneven this entire season. All right. One more break. Then we get to our nonsense predictions. And finally, our locks of the week. All right, we're back on extra point taken. So like, what's one weird thing that's going to happen this weekend? A non-quarterback is going to throw a touchdown.

Oh, love this. Come on. We got 10-point dog Texans. We got 10-point dog packers. We have Chiefs typical red zone foolishness. And then we have seven-point dog buccaneers. We have teams that are big underdogs. Divisional round, man.

This is where if you've got it in your pocket, right? If you've got a little all in the reverse and then flip it and then he goes, then he throws that and he throws it back over this way. If you have it, you got to deploy it. I'll never forget when Sean Payton, this wasn't a non-quarterback. it was just a trick play where James Winston threw the touchdown. But he came and he deployed a trick play for a touchdown against the Bears. The Bears had tried earlier in the season unsuccessfully with that exact design on the field

and scored with it. That is classic. Love of Petty Champagne. Love a petty champagne. But that's right. I think with your big underdogs that you have this week and the propensity for the playoffs to invite some, hey, like, we have to get some designer plays out here. You know, it's your, you even think about the Lions throwing the ball to Taylor

Decker, right? Again, not a non-quarterback throw in a pass, but just a trick play, a red zone designer play to catch a playoff team by a surprise to get a critical seven points on the board. And then always the chiefs, the chiefs are always doing stuff in the red zone. I think we got a good shot for a non-quarterback touchdown. The team for me is the Packers, all this little motion, all these tight ends going this way, that way. All it's nothing. I just get to get to the, 13, put Jaden Reed a motion, do a little quick handoff. Oh, it's Jet sweep, Reed's running behind the line of scrimmage, all of a sudden just launches that sucker up to Tucker Kraft

in the back of the end zone. Matt Loflo's on the sideline, nodding to Cal Shanahan. What's up, Kyle? How are you doing? It's a tie game, baby. I feel like that. That's what I'm looking for you. It's going to be fun. Non-quarterback touchdown coming.

I like that. When you said that, I was going through the teams thinking, aren't, who's it going to be? Detroit wouldn't surprise me. I mean, very creative. They're always trying stuff there. So maybe Detroit would be the number two pick for that category. Mine is not dissimilar.

I think we get a surprise onside kick. I was saying it earlier with the Green Bay Packers. Maybe they're the team. Maybe it's the Houston Texans. Maybe it's the Detroit Lions. You know, I got to give our guy Dave Fipp a shout out there coaching the Detroit Lions special teams. Maybe it's the, I don't know. I don't see the Chiefs bills, that's probably not the game for it.

But I think at some point in one of these games, maybe a team is trailing, maybe a team's a big underdog. we get a surprise on sidekick, not a last four minutes, last two minutes on side kick where a team's trailing something earlier in the game. Not a wild idea for the Green Bay Packers. Literally does not matter if the 49 is still where they start their possession. You're going to have a tough time. If you got something in your pocket, like you said, it's a house. This is interesting for me this weekend. Like Texans Packers, these are house money games. I mean, you got the young quarterbacks. You weren't expected to be here.

Anything you got, anything you've been saving, this is the game to throw it out there. So there you go. When you are a big dog, foment chaos. In quite randomness, yep. You have to fly. And the thing is, that's easier to say in week 12 when there's 13 other games going on. You can be an island game, division, around.

Entire league is going to be watching you. You foments and chaos and it goes badly. You're going to lose an embarrassing game. And that hurts. Do you feel that, right? but you have to pass that over and say, the only way we win this game is if Jane Reed is throwing a touchdown Tucker Crafts.

This is the world we're going to live in. You have to have no shame a little bit. Have a little bit of humility. I understand where you're at. Yeah. Packers-Niners feels right for some foolishness, man. Both from like the Packers perspective, like we're trying to get into this

and from the Niners perspective of like, we've thrown the ball to Christian McCaffrey on seven straight plays because they keep covering him with Preston Smith sort of perspective. I can't believe neither of us picked a 49ers offensive player, right? For either or a long shoter. The numbers were just so high. I wanted to. I'm like, all their guys were going to have monster games, but the numbers were so high. I'm like, I don't feel great about it.

I also, the problem is I can't silo it, right? Usually I want to be like the Buccaneers are the worst against the tight end. So they're going to throw it to the tight end. Here's the thing about the Packers. They're bad against everybody. So I can't, okay, McCaffrey on receiving. McCaffrey on the rushing. Tight end, explosive play.

Longest reception. I, you trust me, I've been trying to find a way. to get exposure? The only thing I have is Brock Pretty over completions. That's what I have right now on Niners' passing offense. And I also have the Niners team total over 30 and a half, just as a general catch-all bucket. They're going to move the ball.

And we didn't talk a lot about this game schematically, but this is just the sort of game where like you think about Dan Quinn last week and Dan Quinn loses to Matt LaFleurr, if you have a structure of a defense that's common and it's been around for a long time and it's been solved by the Shanahan's, you got to like, you have to either evolve or die. Like, that's what the league is, right?

And like the Dan Quinn thinks, watching that LaFleur game back, I did the play show on it this week, it's frustrating to see LaFleur know the rules to have the defense solved and Quinn just kind of sit out there and take it. That's what you're looking at potentially again with Barry into Shanahan. We're like, Barry's defense, man, it's just three, four nonsense. Like, why can they get Justin Jefferson on Joe Barry every time, or Justin Jefferson on Patrick Preston Smith every time the Vikings play the Packers? Because the rules are solved. They know the checks. They know the adjustments.

So how it's watching a shooter on the court. He can get to his spot and he can get to the elbow anytime he wants. And then he's money from the elbow. So you're just going to lose to that player, lose to that coach, lose that system over and over and over again. Talk about foment and chaos for Matt LaFloran, Bridge Passacha, trick plays and onside kicks. Joe Barry, foment some chaos. Send a blitz. Hi, Barry.

Drop a, drop a defense to tackle. Do anything weird. Because if you do the usual stuff, ballgame. Totally agree. Don't worry about, yeah, do not coach that game. Geard, try to create some chaos. It's not about what the stats look like at the end of the game. The stats are not going to look good for your defense at the end of that game.

But can you do a couple things, negative plays, takeaways that, you know, flip the game and give your offense a chance to steal it. I did like, I was looking at the McCaffrey receiving stuff. Those were my favorite ones when I was looking at the Niners. 32 and a half is his receiving yards over under. I like the over there a little bit if I had to pick one. All right, here we go. Picks against the spread.

So we can each pick three games. I've got mine written down. So this isn't one of the weeks where I'm doing game theory and I Ben picked this. It was only four games possible. Yeah, there's only four. Having them written down, you would only have one more written down than you would otherwise. Good point. Their point.

All right. Go ahead. Start us off. What do you got? What's your first lock of the week? Yeah, no spoiler on this one. Houston Texans to cover plus nine and a half against the Baltimore Ravens. I can see this game getting out of hand early.

Texans' explosive. Pass defense can be an issue for them. Lamar and the Ravens coming off a week of rest. Texans have played two playoff games now, right? Colts game and now the Browns game. And obviously, uproarious fun. They win that Browns game at home. It's incredible.

Now, road, hostile environment going against the top team. I could see a big lead generated early. I do think that the Texans are nicely positioned to throw their way a lot and throw the way back into this game. As I very correctly said in the beginning, a bad rush offense, right? Not going to run in the football. And they're going to continue to bang their head into the Ravens rushing game. But you can find success against the Ravens passing game.

They're going to give you isolation stuff on the outside. You can throw a lot of those outbreakers and feel successful. They'll bait and they'll take away your in-breaking stuff. You have to be careful throwing the middle of the field against them. I think Stroud might be liable for a pick, but I think he also might be liable for 350 yards. So I think that even if we get a bad game script, I think there's a way that they can throw their way back into this game. When the Ravens have the ball, though, I think the Texans are going to be able to keep this thing squarely within like seven to 14 points.

I don't think that the Ravens are going to have an absolute runaway day on offense where all of a sudden it's just like a huge explosion. I think you could see this be like, you know, three to zero and then 10 to zero and then 10 to three and then 13 to three. And like it feels like the Ravens are playing really well. It's just they keep getting to the eight and having to kick. And it's like, okay, the Texas are going to hang around for these four quarters. So I think nine and a half is too big for how well the Texas has been playing. I like him to cover. I'm on the same side.

One of my picks, Texans plus nine and a half in this game. The Ravens offense overall, fantastic, huge step up from last year. Todd Monkin, Lamar, it's all worked out. They do have stretches where they're a little uneven. They're a little out of rhythm. And it's, hey, Lamar, just go make a play. And so in this game where the Texans are number two against the run in terms of rushing DVOA, I'm not saying that.

they're going to shut down the Ravens run game, but they have a chance to keep them in check, make them a little one-dimensional, and maybe keep the game close. The other thing I love is CJ Stroud, this has become like my bit, like I like the quarterback who can operate under imperfect conditions and do the hard stuff. And it's like, Ravens' defense could be buttoned up and playing well, and we could just be watching it going, oh my God, how did he make that like high degree of difficulty 1% throw? He's already shown that to us over and over. and over again this year. Nico Collins, ridiculous last week.

Marlon Humphrey, Ravens, best corner out for this game, already out for this game. I don't feel like the Marlin thing is as big of a deal as you do. No? Watch you some Brandon Stevens film? Yeah, man, it's playing. Well, that's one guy. You can't, you don't just play one cornerback.

I mean, who they got? Ronald Darby. Yeah. Arthur Millette, Ronald Darby. Rock you sin. I think there are guys to pick on. Yeah. I can get a safety over top of him pretty consistent.

I play my two high stuff and get Marcus Williams over there and get the Gino Stone. I do my three safety stuff. I think it'll be a three safety game. I think we'll get Kyle Hamill's in the box a little bit. Yeah, this is the sort of game where you'd love to have tank. This is the game where this is the first game since the tank Dell injury would have been like, oh, the tank Dell thing's really going to hurt them because Baltimore will let you complete passes

because they really believe in their ability to tackle. And Nico, who I love, and Nico's incredible. Nico's yak numbers are great because he often catches stuff in stride down the middle of the field and then puts on the jets. He's not really a tackle breaker. Like, that's not as much of why he's successful at yards after the catch. This is where you'd love to be able to throw the ball to Nico on second and 10. Or usually, he'd sort of throw to a tank on second and 10 and be like, all right,

at the very worst, we're getting third and six on this little screen or this little, like, quick pass. But he might actually break a tackle for us and kind of get us back ahead of the sticks. So then they're going to miss tank in this one. Listen, there's a chance that the Ravens win this one by 35. I don't want to make it seem like the tech. They've done that to teams over and over again, specifically at home, but I do think the Texans have a chance here.

CJ Stroud, underdog this year, six and two against the spread. They've typically been good in this spot. All right, so Solek are on the same side for one lock of the week. What's your next one? What do you got? Let's see if we agree on the next one. I do like lines minus six and a half against the bucks.

We got the same. We got another same one. Uh-oh. Is this good or bad? this feels a little bit square versus sharp feels a little bit public versus pro

where like oh but you know numbers in the box offense you know oh Baker Mayfield throwing the ball they've looked better but yeah but you go and you like okay like the bucks

have absolutely looked better down the stretch than they were and like lions oh bad against wide receiver ones like the box just keep it close oh Todd Bowles

blitzing Jared Gough yeah you can like narrative it out if you want when I look at like power ranking numbers the lines are remarkably better team than the bucks like when I just look at

Like how good are you moving the ball and stopping the ball? The Lions are way better at football than the Buccaneers are on. They have been all season. They have been recently. Lions team has just been so good down the stretch. And there are a fun team to poke holes in because it's Jared Gough and it's the other team's wide receiver goes for 250 yards. Fun sort of football to talk about.

It's good narratives. But in general, this is a really balanced team. One critical thing to highlight. And I, you know, I did my John Grenard, Ben like John Bernard, Ben like John Conrad, like, Nico Collins. Ben was wrong on Aidan Hutchinson. Ben, I was an A. Hodgson Doughter.

I thought after his first season as well, I thought a lot of this, his production was just like hustle and grind. Like, that's all great, but I didn't see him as an elite player. This year, they've used him at a high volume. He's been an extremely high pressure player. He's looked a lot better in year two than he did in year one.

I thought he's played great. I remember watching him at camp being like, oh, might be time to swallow the pill on A. Notches in a little bit. He was playing a lot better. And then, right? Because the first three weeks of the season, it was high pressure, low sack.

I'm a disruptive, but I'm not finishing plays. over the stretch recently A and Hutchton been getting quarterback on the ground. And still you get the pressure impact, right? So he brings a holding call against the Rams third down out of field goal range, third and 14. But in general, he's more successfully arriving at the quarterback. They don't have the name recognition on Hutchinson yet,

but they're really starting to get to a player who's got that star edge ability to say, right, well, the stuff behind me ain't perfect, but I can cause enough havoc here, especially against a quarterback like Baker-Mayfield, liable to put the ball on the ground, liable to throw an interception, where I can erase some of these issues.

So defense of front, they're getting James Houston back. I think their past rush is as good, if not better right now than it's been over the course of the season. And yeah, they've got coverage issues, but I just don't think Baker and this passing offense scares me enough. They're going to be in so many second and tens, so many 30-9s because of the rushing attack. You mentioned the game script.

I just did not a tenable game script. The way Buccaneers want to play ball. They want this to be 10-10 in the third quarter, and I don't see the lines ever put up that few points in the first. half with the way this team jumps on you, the way they get ahead on you, the way they're successful in the opening script. I think it's a bad, bad matchup for the Bucks. Lions at home with Campbell and Jared Gough have been very good against the spread, one of the best bets in football over the last couple of years. I just trust this Lions offense against

this Bucs defense. Jared Gough fourth in success rate against the Blitz this season. They have the answers. They will not look like the Eagles did last week structurally. We don't need to talk. notes, don't bring up the Eagle. Okay, I won't bring that on. So I like that from the Lions perspective. I think they're going to be able to pass the football on Tampa. I am a little nervous about that Lions pass defense. I mean, you're right about Aden Hutchinson. Eagle still had four sacks last week against Baker Mayfield. Like that game could have been a blowout earlier if they weren't just taking sacks around midfield and knocking themselves out of field goal range. So I think that certainly is something to keep an eye on. It would not surprise me

if Baker's putting up big passing numbers here against this. against this Lions defense, but I trust Detroit enough. I was just thinking about this, looking at the games. I don't know that I trust a guy with what we were just talking about in terms of you were bringing up the point that if you try something in the playoffs in a big spot and it doesn't work, you're getting clowned by everybody. Who's the one coach who will not care about anything like that? It's Dan Campbell.

He will do what he. It's one of his, he's got a lot of great qualities. I was completely raw. I made jokes about Dan Campbell in columns for years. complete you said you're wrong on Aidan Hutchinson. I was so wrong on Dan Campbell. One of my favorite coaches in the NFL now. One of his best qualities is that he makes decisions based on what he thinks gives his team the best chance to win the game. That's it. Not thinking about anything else, not thinking about the press conference afterwards, not thinking about is he going to get it.

He makes this. And listen, sometimes he goes a little wild. We saw in that Cowboys game where he's taking two point conversions from like his own four from the Dallas 40. That's okay. You know what? he's aggressive. He plays to win the game. And I think that gives him an edge on Todd Bowles, who's gotten better at that aspect, but it's still not totally buttoned up there. I think that gives Campbell a little bit of an edge in this game too. So yeah, I like Detroit minus six and a half. If there's like, like I think they got a chance to blow him out. Again, you're right probably. That's probably the square side a little bit. But that, that's how I see this matchup. The big question for me is when Detroit has their lead and it comes time to run the football,

how successful are they going to be? Is this Buccaneers rush defense numbers-wise, not as a middle-of-the-pack unit, right? Not super impressive, not this, the other thing. The problem is that they tend to have a run defense where if they want to flick the switch on, they can flick the switch on and be really successful because they have a player-league beat a bay on the interior, Elijah can't see a defensive tackle, rookie at a pit. Who!

Young Michael play a ball. All right. They have a stable of edge rushers. They can get big on the interior. This is the sort of team where if you turtle too fast and try to get to zeros, they can sit on you in run defense. They can keep this thing tight,

and they've done it to teams this season. I don't envision Ben Johnson falling into that trap, but the lions are a really good rushing team and want to be a good running team. And they like their trenches against everybody. And there's a way that this becomes, you look back in that second half against the Rams if I like the Lions were just going to keep this thing

as a big difference the whole way down, right? As the Lions spread better last week, I don't like being back here on the lion's spread because that second half offense really struggled to move the football. I think they have to be very cognizant about how they behave with a lead this time around because there's no reason to have your defense, which is the worst explosive past defense in the league

going up against Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and Trey Palmer for one more drive than you need to. Right? So their second half offense now, you need to do a better job managing your leads. Yeah, golf in that second half made me a little nervous with the backwards pass, with the stumbling into a sack, with the firing high pass to, I mean, there were like three possessions in a row where I'm like, uh-oh, he's turning into the Jared golf, everybody makes fun of. But you know what? And he comes through at the end, gets the first down and finishes the game. All right. So we're both on the same side for our first two. I know our last game's going to be

different because I'm not touching Chiefs bills on my lock of the week. You are. What side do you have Benjamin? I like the Chiefs to cover. I like the Chiefs to win too. I think this is a good chiefs game here. I think that the Chief's defense is the best unit in the playoffs left that we've forgotten about, right? I think like week nine, it was all like, man, this Spags group. Oh, this incredible. All the coverage. I wrote like a piece about him. And then like we just don't like, defenses aren't fun. If you're not like the Browns who, you know, Miles Garrett, stack quarterback 19,000 times insane pressure rate, or if you're not the Ravens where it's like, all right, your D.C. is going to be a head coaching candidate. We just lose the narratives. And I think

that the strength of this Chief's defense provides to them has long been forgotten. Oh, only 17 points against the bills. Yeah, but only 20 points given up. And that's not something that Buffalo has been suffering from much other defenses down the recent stretch. It's a hard team to hold a 20 and they did. So I like the Chiefs' Dief's I think that we are under appreciating how well they match up into Buffalo, take away those receivers, force underneath throws, trick Josh Allen into some bad interceptions. But then critically, I think the bills are too are too banged up. And that just sucks. That's not a cool, it's not a fun thing to be happening. No one wants to watch this game and be like, oh, well, if the injuries were

different, this would have been a good game, but it wasn't. But I think it's going to be low scoring. I think that you're going to see a spirited performance in the bill's defense, but I think they just have too many matchup problems left, where there's just a lot of, like guys you can circle right now. We're going to have to play a substantial number of snaps in that back seven, where if you're Andy Reed and Patrick Malmes and Matt Nagy, you're sitting there going, yeah, I mean, if we get him in this, you know, we can beat him in that when he's in zone and we can beat him in space and we can, you know, he can't tackle.

Like there's just, there's, they got a lot of Matt. There's too many to hide in the back seven. So I think the chiefs are going to be able to find those eight and nine play drives that you were talking about. Like I said, if you're, if you're the bills, it's keep Mahomes in the pocket, also pressure him and then also limit the yak. Like, there's just, there's a lot on the menu. to make sure you can actually force this chief's team into three-point drives, into longer drives.

You're going to see Rishi Rice be successful. I think I say Pacheco, which we, you know, the chiefs in December, a few games without Pacheco, and we kind of forgot just how well they can run the football and smash it and get the second and five. You see that a little bit more against the dolphins. You'll see that against the bills. So I like the chiefs to win outright. I do like the chiefs to cover. It's plus two and a half right now at plus 100 on a Fandle.

For anybody who is betting it, I would try to get to three. I think three is an important number in a low. scoring game, but for our competition, it doesn't matter. So plus two and a half for the chiefs. On the road against Buffalo, sorry Bill's fans. Mahomes is going to end your season again. Patrick Mahomes has been an underdog 10 times in his career, Ben, eight one and one against the spread in those spots. Seven times the chiefs have won outright. I mean, if you just, the rest of his career, just take Mahomes as an underdog, you're probably going to come out in a pretty, good spot. I'm not touching this game. I couldn't go against my takes in this game, man.

Like, if I didn't have any previous takes, you're leveraged on the bills, man. Yeah, I'm leveraged. If I didn't have any previous takes, if I didn't a month ago, bury the chiefs, if I didn't two months ago say, don't sleep on the bills, they still have a chance here. Then maybe I would just go with that underdog number and say, I'm not stupid. Just like, it's an even game just to, but you know what? Sometimes you're dug in too deep and I'm dug in too deep. So this isn't one of my locks. I want nothing to do with it. I would never put actual bunny on this game. I do have the bills minus two and a half in this game officially. That's really, yeah, like two huge, like the social team is just really rooting for the

bills in this game. They've got a lot of great shioka-a-potty or opposite. Or it could be the opposite. I mean, they could really clown me. Yeah. They want to build you up. They love it. Okay. All right. So there you go. All right. So my last one, I'm going to Levi Stadium Saturday night. and I'm not, listen, the team of extra point taken, the Green Bay Packers, I'm not giving up on you just yet. Wow. Plus nine and a half Green Bay Packers, my third lock of the week. Am I terrified? Do I think the Packers are going to force one single punt in this game? I cannot say for sure that they're going to do that.

I do not like, I have no argument for them on that side of the ball. However, I think their offense is built, sustain those long drives to shrink the game, to make it an eight possession game instead of an 11 possession game. I think you get a big Aaron Jones game. I think Jordan Love plays well once again against this 49ers defense. Jordan Love, third lowest sack rate in the NFL only behind Mahomes and Allen. Like that's incredible for a first year stronger. What's the thing you always have?

Like either you're the turnoff. You know, high sacrate, high scrambrate, high throw. rate. Yes. And Jordan loves a high throwaway slash interception rate. Like if those two things kind of get molded together, that boy be chucking it. Yeah, good. Pressure's coming.

We're launching this sucker. Yeah, he really doesn't scramble. He's got a low scramble rate. He just throws the football. So I think they got a chance in this game again. They're going to have to invite some randomness. They're going to have to invite some variants. I'm seeing 70% chance of rain, Ben.

Let's go a little weather here, Brock Purdy in the rain, maybe. throws you one, throws you two, something like that, and you're able to steal a possession or two in this game. So I really,

what it came down to was I couldn't decide if I wanted to take the Packers or the Texans, and I said, she'll just take them both. I think one of them at least is going to cover.

And like I said earlier, I think one of them has a chance to win the game. So that's my last pick, Packers, plus nine and a half. If you had to pick this game, what side are you on?

Yeah, this is my 20-foot pole game where I'm like, I'm so certain that the Niners score a lot of points and then I'm very uncertain what happens next. And that makes it challenging to bet at a 10 point line. I think that like general overlooks are good in this game. I think, you know, Packers, you know, if like if we get at the half and it's 21 to 6, I'm going to be taking like Jordan Love passing overs and like, you know, just kind of expecting your typical garbage time run.

The one thing that I will say is that I think that every time I sit down and I break down this Niners team against a playoff contest. I just think to myself like, man, if a team is able to get through the first quarter, and this isn't a huge deficit, they can just keep running the ball, then they can hang in these games. And obviously, like, the Ravens game was going to be the game where you kind of heat-checked that. You're like, all right, what's it going to look like? And then there were four turnovers from the first half. Like, well, this is not a real game script. Like, this didn't help. So you didn't get the kind of the blueprint laid out. But with the way that they used

Aaron Jones in a lot of December and, you know, he was successful against the Cowboys, obviously the story was kind of the passing game. You just wonder, okay, like Aaron Jones is fresh, this office aligns, jelled together and they're playing well. Like, what if they're just able to run, run, run? Like that to me is the universe. I got Jordan loves the story. He's incredible.

To me, the universe for the Packers win this game is a 25 carry Aaron Jones game. And it's not like, oh, because they have a lead. It's guys from Snap 1. They dedicate themselves. Hey, if we get this ball 14 to 3 in the second quarter, you know what we're doing? We're running it on first and 10. We are not going to bite too early on losing to this pass rush and losing to this cover. Ridge, we are going to establish the run. I think that's, that's, that's the universe for the Packers

win this game. Six to eight and a half rushing yards. Aaron Jones was one that I did write down. I think he has a chance in this game. 17 and a half receiving yards, Aaron Jones in this game. I feel like you got to throw a little screen early against this, this 49ers. Luke Musgrave, 17 and a half rushing yards. I was real close to some Luke Musgrave all overs as well. Receiving. There's, receiving, excuse me. Okay. I was like, oh, is he going to a jet sweep or something? Yeah, Okay. There's going to be a Packers Pass Catcher that goes for 70. That is no business going for 70.

And I just want to figure out who he is. That's all I want this week. All right. Those are the locks of the week. All right. So let me give us your recap for the divisional round. What do you got? Absolutely.

Sam Laporta over 41.5 receiving yards is the proper of the week. Christian Watson. 40 plus receiving yards is the long shot of the week at plus 152. Against the spread, I'll be on Texans plus 9. 9.5. Chiefs plus 2.5 and Lions minus 6. and a half. I've got Rashad White under 53 and a half rushing yards

for my prop of the week. Long shot, Travis, Kelsey, 80 plus receiving yards. That's plus 188. Lions minus six and a half. Same with Solac. Texans plus nine and a half. Same as Solac. And then we go to Levi's. Jordan Love, baby. It ain't over yet.

Packers plus nine and a half at San Francisco. I got to check the shoot again and see how we've been doing when we share. I think it's under 50%. three for seven 42.86%. You're on the same side. You're sandbagging me,

you're dragging my locks down and you know your long shot's going to hit for some reason. That's actually true. If I just pick the same locks as you and I can't lose ground there and then I beat you on the props and the long shot, I got a good chance at this thing. All right,

I hadn't thought about that way, but maybe that will be my strategy. Good thing you've come up with us now that next week there's two games. There's three games left to pick in the entire six. We have to pick the same games next week, no matter what.

All right, next year. I'm just doing that every week. All right. Thank you to bed, Solek. Thank you to Cliff Augustine for producing. Thank you to Eduardo Ocampo for his video production, additional production supervision by Connor and Evans and Arjuna, Ron Gopal. Next up, Nora and Stephen this weekend recapping the divisional round games. Solek and I will be back Monday. Maybe some coaching news. I wonder if we'll be talking about some big time coaching hires on Monday. And of course, our thoughts on the divisional round and championship weekend.

enjoy the games this weekend and we'll talk to you next week. Bossby 21 plus and present in select states, Fandall is offering online sports wager in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC. Gambling problem. Call 100 gambler or visit fandle.com slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee, Vermont and Virginia. Call 100, next step or text next step. Do 5334-2 in Arizona.

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