The Ringer NFL Show - Do We Believe in the Colts, Chargers, or Bucs? With Mike Sando.

Episode Date: September 18, 2025

Mike Sando from The Athletic joins the pod to examine Daniel Jones’s resurgence, the L.A. Chargers’ hot streak, and Tampa Bay’s impressive performances, and talk with Sheil about whether the good vibes will be sustainable through the rest of the 2025 season. (00:00) Intro/cold open (3:06) Do You Believe in the Indianapolis Colts? (11:34) Do You Believe in the Los Angeles Chargers? (16:18) Do You Believe in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? (25:26) The Hurry-Up: Mike McDaniel’s Job Security in Miami The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠www.rg-help.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Host: Sheil KapadiaGuest: Mike SandoProducer: Chris SuttonSocial: Kiera Givens and Brian WatersProduction Supervision: Conor Nevins and Arjuna Ramgopowell Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. I'm your host, Shield Capadia. Today, we try to figure out what's real and what's not as we look ahead to week three. A little game of do you believe and to help me sort it out. It's my friend from the athletic, one of the best in the business, Mike Sando. And Mike, I got to start by telling you one thing I do believe, because I was doing some research today. And this is going to catch you completely off guard. So if you don't know what I'm talking about, that's okay.

The Colts mascot, Blue, is the best. in the NFL. Did you see him during last week's game? Do you know anything about the legend of blue? I do not know anything about the legend of blue. Too many games probably going on at the same time. I can see, picture something vaguely. What did blue do? Yes. So, you know, the cold, end of the Colts game. We're going to talk about the Colts today. We're going to talk about a couple other teams. Teams end of the Colts game, the Colts missed that field goal. He collapses to the ground. I mean, he stands right at the goalpost, gets back up. They call the penalty. They make it, and then he does like the pelvic thrust of the Philly Fanatic. I don't think they're

related, but I would imagine he was inspired by the Philly Fanatic at some point in his life. So yeah, big weekend for Blue. I was going on a deep dive, Wikipedia, Instagram, best mascot in the NFL. And I think it's key that, you know, let's face it, Blue hasn't had a lot of things to thrust about in recent years. So to be ready to thrust early in the season. I mean, these guys probably study film of the other mascots, you know, they're like, you know, I want to do some thrusts, you know? And he can finally do it, so he's ready. Stay ready so you don't have to get ready, Blue. You did it. You did a nice job last week. And so you're going to talk Colts, and we're going to talk bucks. And we're going to talk about

Chargers, some kind of early season surprises, what we're seeing. Do we believe it? Do we not believe what we're staying? So let's take a break. We come back. We talk about those teams. This is the Ringer NFL show presented by Fandul, and the NFL is officially back. So if you're going to be in it, be in it with Fandul. They've got. Got the goods, futures, live betting, SGPs, Your Way bets, all of it. The app's clean, it's fast, and yeah, when you win, you get paid instantly, which is nice, because Sunday patience doesn't exist. So get your bets in, build something bold, and make every game feel bigger.

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the show today. Item number one, Mike Sando, do you believe in the Indianapolis Colts and specifically the Indianapolis Colts offense? So they're 2 and O. You and I like the nerd stats. You know, they're first in EPA per drive. Their first in success rate, Daniel Jones's numbers are through the roof. Do you believe what you're seeing with the Indianapolis Colts so far? I believe they're going to be a lot better. This is totally unsustainable. So I stacked all of their, all of the Colts offenses through the Peyton Manning era, you know, by EPA per play. And this would be number two to the 2004 famous Colts that was like maybe one of the best offenses ever. So if we stack all of the offenses full season, you know, since 2000, there's 800 and some offenses. And they're like,

they're like right after the 2013 Broncos, the 2000 Rams and the 2011 Patriots. So that is not happening. But I do think, you know, before the season, I thought, okay, Colts and AFC, Seahawks and NFC are two sort of mid-level teams that are being underrated a little bit because of, let's face it, no one's going to get super excited about Daniel Jones or even Sam Darnold. And there's some questions of moving on from Darnold. But like, you can run your offense with Daniel Jones. So I do think that they, I would say this. I think they have a good chance to be, you know, possibly in the top half of the league offensive EPA. I could see that being for the season for them.

And that would be a win. I mean, I wasn't bullish on him. I was, you know, one of the people you're probably talking about, like, man, they're getting crushed. I just thought we've seen Daniel Jones. And I know it was in a different environment. And I kind of like the supporting cast, but I just felt like he's had all those injuries. And there was a version of Daniel Jones earlier in his career where I said, I see the tools here.

Like in the right situation, he can be a good quarterback. But this version of him after those injuries. are we still going to see that guy? So this is one where my eye test and sort of the analytical part of my brain don't agree on this because I feel like the eye test, I've watched the first two weeks here, Mike, and Shane Steichen is in his bag. I mean, beautifully schemed up, explosive plays.

Tyler Warren looks great. Jonathan Taylor looks great. Michael Pittman, Jr., like they have a nice group of pass catchers that do a bunch of different things. And then I'm given, like, Jones has looked good. It's not just everything schemed up for him. Like he's making throws under pressure. He looks healthy.

He looks comfortable. And so I'm looking at part of it going, the AFC South is bad. The Texans don't look great. Could they be some version of last year's Vikings with Sam Darnold, where it's like this quarterback who was getting beaten up, got in the right situation, and maybe they do really overachieve here? I think definitely in the division.

So Daniel Jones, one of his big issues, he is not consistently accurate, okay? And so he still isn't this year. I mean, shoot, he turns quick game, throws that to the right side. and it goes, he's thrown to, you know, Wilts Shaquille Neal cannot catch this pass, you know. So he had a wide open touchdown, you know, up maybe the right kind of seam,

and he just sails the guy in the end zone. So he's not, it's not like he's been just completely on point, but I think he's consistent enough for Shane Steichen to be in his bag and get some results. And I think what we're seeing is just how hard that was with Anthony Richardson. So if you look, like if you look, I've got a little filter in our,

in our true media shield where it's just all the, quarterbacks by the different air yards bands. And so I was looking at like Flacco and, if you go to start of last year, Flacco and Daniel Jones, they complete 75% of the less than 10 air yards, right? 75%. Well, Richardson's 60%. What's a big difference? Because so much of your offense is like, you know, that area of the field.

So just hitting 15 more percent of the layups, keep some drives alive. You know, you're going to get, someone's going to make a play after the catch and go for 20 yards when you're not expecting it on third and four, right? Those things just can, you're not as limited. I think he still limits you because he's not amazing, but guess what? Trevor Lawrence ain't consistently accurate either. C.J. Stroud is coming off of a tough year last year still doesn't look so great this year. So why not indie, you know?

Why couldn't they? They've been close anyway. Like, I do this thing every year before the year and it's like I pull these people in the league, and we rank the teams in each conference, one to 16. And one of the great comments was, the Colstitch always seemed to find their way, no matter what, to be like within a couple games of 500 or something. There's like this gravitational pull with them. So I think they've raised their floor tremendously by just being able to, maybe the metaphor

is complete 75% of your layups instead of 60%. That's right. So that's the bullish case. You know, I think we've given the bullish case. Now, there is a, I feel like there's another end of this where we remember last year, the New Orleans Saints through two weeks of the season. Everyone's really excited. Derek Carr, Clint Kuback.

Oh my gosh, this offense. And part of me wonders are the Colts just going to be that type of team? Because Daniel Jones, previous three seasons, I mean, statistically has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL. And like you mentioned, the outlier season, man, you just go to the pro football reference page and look at every column. it's like outlier, completion percentage, yards per attempt. Any stat you want to look at it, it's like he's never been anywhere close to this before.

Even in 2022, his career year, Giants go to the playoffs. Like, I think he was around 12th in EPA per play. So it's like he was a little bit above average. So part of me wonder. And so that's where I settled, you know, not to go negative right away. But when I have to answer, do you believe what's more likely that they're really good? You know, let's say top 10 type offense or that their version of the 2020. I go more 2024 Saints, but I think you laid it out.

The most likely outcome is probably somewhere in the middle there where they're competing for a playoff spot in December. And remember with the Saints, too, they were five and five when Carr started. Obviously, the wheels came off. They played a lot of games with super limited quarterback play too. So, yeah, I can totally see that Daniel Jones is not amazing, right? But I do think Shane Steichen, and you know this better than me because you're in Philly. but I think Shane's good, you know, and I think it was just a little bit too hard for him last year with, you know, the super talented quarterback who can't really run an offense yet.

Yeah. Yeah. Definitely he's got to be loving this more than previous years where it's like, hey, at least for the most part, the ball's going where it's supposed to. So the durability thing, you mentioned it with Carr. It's been a big thing with Jones too, has started 12 games or more in his career three times. So that's something to keep an eye as well. I'm worried too because he got freaking blindsided on what I was going through all these plays to scramble. And it was like, don't get down, please.

Yeah. That sort of the thing. No doubt about it. All right, let's take a break. We come back and then we talk chargers and box. Both teams coming off impressive. Monday night wins, do we believe? The Ringer NFL show is brought to you by Fanduel.

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Must be 21 plus and present in select states or 18 plus and press. present in D.C., Kentucky, or Wyoming, opt-in, must-apply profit-boost token on select market, prize pool to be split equally among all eligible participants who made the correct first or last T-D pick, bonus issued as non-mustrable bonus bets, which expire 21 days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.Fandul.com. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-Gandler or visit rg dash help.com call one 888 789 777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in connecticut. All right, back on the ringer NFL show. Item number two, Mike, do you believe in the chargers as real AFC contenders? So two and no to start the season. They host the Broncos on Sunday.

Offense performing pretty well. Defense, very impressive performance Monday night. Can they make that leap? Because I think right now we could say if we had to pick playoff teams, you'd probably, most people, I think, would have the chargers in there. But can they make that leap to know? This is actually a team to watch out for in the AFC. I think they'll win a playoff game this year. I think they'll get over that hump. You know, I'm not in that conference, I mean, look,

we don't know if Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are going to go how far they're going to go, because these teams got a plate, should I didn't play my homes, and they're good. So I just like what I'm seeing. And I'll tell you, I think we were wondering coming into the year, especially, you know, seen last year, like, how's this mix going to be with Jim Harbaugh, three-yard cloud of dust, Greg Roman, super run offenses with Justin Herbert. And the first two games, and even towards the end of last year, they're way more pass-oriented than we thought they were going to be. And, you know, I do the Cook Index, which was kind of making light of

Russ Wilson let Russ Cook. And all we're looking at is how often do you pass on the early downs before the two-minute warning in the first half? It's kind of your new. passing. And they're over 75% in the first two games. The next team's like 65. The league average is like 53. So that, and if you look, late last season, maybe when Herbert was a little healthier and they were getting a little more confident, there were some high games too. So here's my stat. The Chargers, 420 games since 2000. Their first two games this year ranked sixth and ninth in the Cook Index for how often they've passed. And they've had Philip Rivers fling it around with Norfolk. Turner, you know, and they've had guys who threw the ball, you know, and even Herbert early in his career really threw the ball.

So I think I'm believe, I don't know how you go back to putting the lid on the offense when now it seems like they've got a few more weapons. And your quarterback's gained some confidence. It has a couple nice wins early. I think the win and the opener was huge from a confidence standpoint for them. There's been something missing with Justin Herbert. Yeah. I don't know what it is. But I think there's a little bit of mojo gained.

when you win against Kansas City, and now you're actually putting the ball in his hands. It's like a vote of confidence to me. Yeah, it's so funny during that Monday night game, I think they were talking about, oh, I Chargers want to run the ball, and I think all the nerds were like, no, no, they passed the ball a lot at the end of last year,

and in week one, they passed the ball a lot, and that's what they're doing, a lot of play action on early downs, and like you said, putting the ball in his hands, and it's looked good without a, you know, maybe a great offensive line, without a great pass-catching group.

I would say other than Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, just the quarterbacks through two weeks. I mean, I think Herbert's right there with anyone. And then the defensive side of the ball. I mean, Jesse Minter has to be on the short list of right now best defensive coaches in the NFL. I always like to just look at the talent you have and are they overachieving, you know, achieving where they should or underachieving. And I just look at that depth chart.

And I'm like, I like Derwin James. I like Deion Henley. He's emerging as a star. but they don't have, you know, top five, top ten talent in the NFL, and they've been maybe the best defense in the NFL through two weeks. And if you go to the start of last season, I was just looking at this, and I included the playoffs. The charges are fifth and defensive EPA per play.

And guess what? Seattle's seventh. Those are both the Baltimore guys, Minter and McDonald's. So there's something about these guys. They know what they're doing. It seems like to me. They've got good defenses. Yeah, I think they're flexible.

I don't know. You hear stuff like they know. how to teach a bunch of different things and not overwhelm the players, those types of things. And think of this. The Chargers before that had a defensive coach and they were like bottom five. And the Seahawks were bottom five with Pete Carroll for years the last few years. And now you're all a sudden you're on the top 10. You can't tell me that's not coaching. Yeah, no. They've done a good job. So I think I'm kind of with you with win a playoff game. I may know on real AFC contenders. I'm not quite there yet. Just because I look at the talent. And it's like I don't see an above

average offensive line. I don't see an above average defensive line. I don't see an above average pass catching group. Like if they make noise in the AFC, it's going to be a very impressive coaching job. And that's possible or it's possible that like you said with Herbert, this is just a year where in those big moments or in those big games, things click. So I think they have that ceiling, but I can't quite get there where I'm saying I'm putting them in kind of that top tier in the AFC. Same. Okay. All right. Last one. Do you believe Mike Sandow? Item number three. that the bucks are real contenders in the NFC. What do you got?

The last three words in the NFC make it a little bit more possible. I have felt like they're sort of in a tier of their own, where super high floor, you can put them down for 10, 11 wins, but do I think they're going to push all the way through? I kind of don't. But in the NFC, I think there's a different path. like if we were to say, who do you like better, Tampa or the Chargers? Well, if the Chargers were in the NFC, you might believe more, wouldn't you?

Yeah, yeah, no doubt. They would be right up there. But I have felt coming into the year, you sort of had, you know, Philly, Green Bay, and depending on Detroit, maybe if their coordinator situation isn't a disaster, that those were carrying into the top three. And then I put Tampa sort of in its own tier there where I feel safer about them than I do about, let's just say, San Francisco or Washington, there's a couple of those types of teams

that have gone further in the playoffs recently, but have some real question marks. Like, I don't know if they're going to do it. I feel like Tampa Bay is safer than that, but I'm not on them enough to put them above those top three. Does that make sense? Yeah, I think I'm a yes on this one, though. I think I'm a little more bullish than you,

and I wasn't there before this season. You know, I was making, I thought the hipsters, they were like, ah, you know, the bucks are the sleigh. And I'm like, everybody settled down, you know, on the box. They didn't even win a playoff game last year. I thought that win Monday night was one of the most impressive wins by, it's only two weeks. I don't want to go overboard here, but through two weeks, that was one of the most impressive wins of the season. You know, you don't have Tristan Werf's. Your right tackle goes down in the first quarter. You're going up against a defense where the Texans at times,

it feels like they got 14 guys out there who all want to rip your head off, by the way. It's just like the most violent unit in the NFL. And then you face adversity down. the stretch, you lose the lead, 204 left, you're down by 5. To go 80 yards on 11 plays, and I think they had one third or fourth down in there. Like, it didn't actually look that hard to go

right down the field. And just overall, that was, I think, an 84th percentile offensive performance by the bucks, 25 first downs against that Texan's defense. So I looked at that and I thought about the questions I had coming into the season about, hey, you lost Liam Cohen, Josh Grisard,

I'll be honest. I knew nothing. You very little about the guy. You probably knew stuff about the guy. I thought, all right, I don't know that this is going to work out for the box. But the way they move the ball offensively and then a veteran defensive coach, I kind of think they have a chance to make some noise against some of these teams that are talked about top tier in the NFC. I say they have a chance too. I do.

I'm just not going to favor them. Like to me, I think they would lose to a Green Bay. You know, that type of a team is, I think, is a little bit better. But I'm with you that I think they can advance in the playoffs. And, you know, as far as the coordinator thing, I mean, when you keep being good on offense across all these coordinators who know who had never been coordinators before, maybe you just have a good team. You know, maybe they just have a good offense and they have a good quarterback and they don't have terrible coordinators. But, you know, Dave Canales, Liam Cohn, Josh Greer, they're probably, you know, one of them's probably really good. One of them's probably average.

Right. There's not like they're, they can't all three be the key to Tampa Bay being good. I think it's really impressive defensive head coach. Todd Bulls is just setting on offense like, hey, here's some general parameters for how we'd like to play. He's not like running it. So I'm super impressed over a three-year period because it looks good again with their ability to just be good.

You know, I think they're an underrated kind of organization even, you know, to just keep sort of being good and be able to replace quarterback Brady. and then have to be able to do deals with mayfield that aren't at the exact top of the market and stuff like i just feel like they've got it they've got a great thing going so total respect for them yeah there's no doubt about it after the brady era to just kind of not misabedance like anybody could have taken a chance on baker mayfield they did and to your point you're right we we keep trying to look for like oh you know who's helping baker mayfield and this offense but it's like maybe he deserves some credit maybe the infrastructure the offensive line the well like they have a good situation there or maybe Todd Bulls just has the best eye for like offensive coordinators in NFL history.

I don't know, but I wanted to ask you, like Mayfield specifically, you do the great quarterback tier's piece every summer, everybody reads it. What is the view of, because I get the sense that like people in the NFL just like really like sort of what he's about and his personality and the intangibles, maybe more so than we see on the outside if you're just looking at the numbers or watching the film or whatever. I think that's true. I think they do get, they do really. appreciate his story, number one, of bouncing around and just sort of persevering.

There's so much talk in the league about, oh, you know, the league does a disservice to quarterbacks and, you know, hey, they need a better plan to development. Well, look at this guy. He overcame it, right? He's overcome some tough situations over the last couple of years when he's in Carolina and his career was on the rock. So you do have to totally give him credit for that. I think also he's a little bit more under control now.

Like finding that line, he kind of has the wild man, but it's in a, It's in a little bit of a more professional context now. I don't feel like he's as apt to blow the game. It's still going to happen twice this year, where he throws a killer interception trying to put one in there. But I feel like he's kind of got the right amount of letting it all hang out, maybe, like just a little bit more under control wildness. So, you know, is that just maturity or, you know, accountability to his teammates there,

whatever it is? I think that's notable with him, too. There's also little stuff this time of the year where we overreact and I'm guilty of it right now. Just when I was looking at the bucks earlier, it's like, all right, if the Falcons make a kick in week one, if the Texans don't have a disastrous red zone sequence in week two, you know, what are we talking about? And I think you're right about Baker with the, that line is, there are going to be weeks. It might even be this week where he throws like, like he has, he leads the NFL and turnover worthy plays that pro football focus tracks.

He's got six of them through two weeks. So it's like, if guys came down. with a couple of those interceptions? Are we having a different conversation? But I do feel like the end of a game, not that I thought he was going to score, but it feels like he knows what he's doing out there. He knows what he's looking at.

He's going to let it rip. He's got the personality teammates like him. So yeah, I'm more pro-Baker now, maybe than I was a little while ago. Even though he's not an elite talent, he's number one pick. So it's not like he's, you know, it's not like he's some late-round success story.

I mean, he can throw the ball. Now, yeah, he's scrambling to the right and drops the ball. He almost gets his teammate killed, you know, diving for the ball. So there's always going to be some sort of things like that, been a little while. But the other thing was, how about them going for two at the end of the game? I'm like, oh, my gosh. And he's like taking hits and throwing the ball.

I'm like, do you realize it goes the other way? You lose the game. And that's all we're talking about for the next month. Would you just take a knee here? So they lived on the edge a little bit there. But yeah, two and oh, pretty good. And they have a history of being good. Yeah.

I think I think quarterbacks forget that sometime, that the two-point conversion. You can't, this isn't like a, you know, a fourth down where you're like, this is, yeah, it can go the other way and you can cost yourself there. What are we doing here? You're afraid they're going to drive for a field goal? He's entertaining, though. You're right. It's an adventure with him. But if he's on, you know, in terms of that tier of quarterback, I don't know that many of the players in that tier are more entertaining than Baker Mayfield.

So I like this team. Tristan Wurst, get him back. Chris Godwin, get him back. They haven't even been healthy. It looks like they hit on a Buka, the wide receiver. so I think they're going to be a team to watch in the NFC. And Mike Sandow is a NFL writer to watch. You can read him in the Athletic, the pick six column every Monday.

And then he does like, you know, four other guys. He just, you know, he's just turning stuff out. And he's doing big projects on the side. So we all read him. Mike, thank you so much for joining us today. Thanks, you all. Always fun. All right.

I'll be back in a minute with the hurry up. This episode is brought to you by NFL Sunday ticket on YouTube TV. NFL Sundays are back and you won't want to miss the action. NFL Sunday ticket and YouTube TV lets you catch every game, every Sunday, all in one place. And now new users get NFL Sunday ticket for eight payments of 3450 per month. Head to YouTube.com slash Ringer NFL and sign up now. New users pay $276 or eight non-cancelable payments of 3450 per month, first charged at purchase. Availability varies with NFL Sunday ticket for out-of-market games

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The hurry up is our closing segment where I give you a take on news in the NFL. And we have a big Thursday night game here between the bills and dolphins. Now, it's not big because the dolphins are a threat to the bills in the AFC East or anything like that. but it's big because of Mike McDaniel's job security. Miami Dolphins embarrass themselves in week one in Indianapolis, then they lose a close game in week two to the Patriots. And McDaniel came into the season with probably the hottest seat in the NFL. If this team goes to 0-3,

it's really hard to see a scenario where they battle back and are relevant this season. So that doesn't necessarily mean they would just, hey, we're going to fire Mike McDaniel because we're 0-3. optics matter with this stuff. And I do think if it's a national TV game, it's an island game, if they get embarrassed and players are sounding off or looking frustrated on the sideline or Mike McDaniel looks lost, if those types of things happen, then who knows?

I mean, the truth is you should never make a coaching decision based on one game, but we all know how owners operate and they care about that kind of thing. So that's something to keep an eye on Thursday night against the bill. So this franchise is just in a tough spot. I mean, Tyreek Hill, I believe, is a prime candidate for an in-season trade. They're tied to Tua through at least 2026. But that deal was signed with the idea that he'd be paired with McDaniel. If Tua plays in another scheme for another coach, a different type of offense, different

supporting cast, who knows what it would look like. So just zooming out, it's kind of an underrated trade wreck of a franchise. You know, five playoff appearances, one playoff win in the last 25 years. bad ownership, bad front office, and they got to be thinking, if we move on from McDaniel, like, what is our path forward? There is none. There's not a clear path forward for what they should do. So because of that, I personally sort of think he's going to have a longer leash. Like, I think if they just lose this game, it's not that big of a deal. Again, if it's an embarrassing loss and there's stuff going on that's making the team, the organization,

the owner look bad, then everything's in place. So interesting, sort of, of, you know, other than just win or loss on Thursday night, interesting sort of side story in Dolphins bills as we take a look at the landscape of the league and look at some of the coaching situation specifically with Mike McDaniel. So that's what I'll be watching. Thursday night, we'll be back to talk to you tomorrow on the Ringer NFL show. Appreciate everyone listening. Thank you to Christopher Sutton for producing Kiera Givens on social,

additional production supervision by Connor and Evans and Arjuna Ram Gopal. I'm Sheila Kapadia. Talk to you tomorrow. Must be 21 plus and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus and present in D.C., Kentucky or Wyoming. Gambling problem, call 1-800 gambler or visit RG-Helph.com. Call 1-888-789-77-7-7-7 or visit cpgg.org slash chat in Connecticut or visit MDGamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gambling helpline, MA.

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