The Ringer NFL Show - Dolphins Are Winning the Offseason, Raiders and Broncos Fans Should Be Cautious, and Predicting Division Winners | Extra Point Taken

Episode Date: March 20, 2023

Sheil and Ben discuss the current winners and losers of the offseason and free agency. The Dolphins have made some key additions that Ben really loves, including Jalen Ramsey, but does this put them at the top of the AFC East? The AFC West was overall disappointing last season and could still trend in that direction with the acquisitions, departures, and spending that the Raiders and Broncos have done so far this offseason. Sheil and Ben also predict the way too early division winners. Hosts: Sheil Kapadia and Ben Solak Producer: Cliff Augustin Addition Production Supervision: Arjuna Ramgopal and Conor Nevins Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, my name is Kevin Clark. I'm the host of a new football podcast called Slow Newsday. I want to tell you about it. On Mondays, Lindsay Jones and I will recap the weekend in football that was, as well as look ahead to what's next. On Wednesday, the normal Slow Newsday, the thing you've been watching for years, current players, current coaches, current analysts,

talking about the football world. And on Friday, it's a wild card. Could be some college football. Could be more pro stuff. It's a video podcast so you can watch it on Spotify or listen to it wherever you get your podcasts. Follow on Spotify. It's Slow Newsday.

Welcome to Extra Point taken on the Ringer NFL. Shield Capade here, joined by Ben Solac, producer Cliff Augustine, the offseason rolling along. We're one week into the free agency period, the negotiating period, all the different dates they have. So don't fact check me on that. It might not be exactly one week. But we've got moves to talk about we're going to do which off season do we like so far? which offseason do we not like so far? And who is the most interesting team going forward?

So a little change up, Benjamin, with the extra point taking a little more format, a little more structure this week so we don't just have to fire off random takes. How do you feel about it? I'm trying to think of a scoring system that has more structured points, but I don't really know. It's bowling. We just like, the pins are decided there's no metaphor here. Yeah, it's the offseason, which means that if we were to do seven takes off the cuff on seven different things. You'd be getting some Ben Powers takes, some, you know,

wow, Leonard Floyd's still a free agent. It's just, it's the bottom of the barrel, unfortunately, this is what we're doing. We'll do that. And then, you know what? We just came up with our extra point before we started recording. We're going to go on the record at this point in time. Who do we feel like, who do we feel like is going to win each division next year? And we'll periodically come back to that after the draft before the season and see how our opinions have change. But let's get started here, Ben, you go first. I don't know how you want to frame this. The offseason you like the most so far, your favorite off season so far, however you want to frame it, what team has stood out to you on a positive note. This was actually harder than I

thought. I think a lot of teams did fine. It wasn't really the sort of offseason where there was one team with $100,000 just going like, best corner, best safety, best wide receiver, right? And like, I think the Texans could have done that, but they're electing not to. I think the Bears thought they were doing that for a second, and I disagree with the any analysis that the Bears did achieve that. So it's a lot of teams that I think just did like a good job with one or two big moves and handling the margins. And to me, that team that has the best off season so far is the dolphins. If we scope this back to include hiring Vic Fangio as the highest paid DC when like every single team was trying to hire Vic Fangio, right, which I guess like you're kind of cheating and

getting that one in there. But Fangio coming in to improve the defense and then the immediate resources that they poured into this defense. David Long, who as you joked on a recent extra point taken, is like every football nerds favorite linebacker is a really good linebacker. And they get him for two years, $11 million total. The trade for Jaylon Ramsey, a third round pick and Hunter Long, obviously they secure some of his future money. They secure some of his future salary.

They guarantee him his salary. But Ramsey hops up on the podium and says, I always wanted to be in Miami. Miami was the team I wanted to come to. This is where I want to be. And so I don't think you're running a risk of kind of Ramsey, you know losing interest in a year i found that to be you know compelling as far as these things go so you have ramsie and long which to me are are impact players on a defense that already had a couple but needed

some of those spots plugged up when you go and you look at names right like just just defensively right now jalen ramsayvonne holland is one of the best young safeties in league i say he's a top 10 safety bradley chub david long and me as a top 10 uh linebacker christian wilkins who's a top 10 defensive tackle all five positions to me they've got a top 10 guy and then they have Vic who's been a great defense coordinator in the league for a long, long time, independent of how much of the league is using his defense. Vic Fangio has been that dude, period.

I think they did a wonderful job in setting this defense on a course where it's going to be able to be successful. And as we know, when you're building out a contender, you don't need like a top five defense. That's not predictive of being a contender. You need a defense that can hang around and if they can get you a couple of stops against a high-powered offense,

you expect your guys on the other side to do the rest. And that's where the question marks remain. They return Rahim Moster and Jeff Wilson and Salvin Ahmed. The entire running back room comes back, which I thought was a little interesting. I would have liked for there to be

maybe one large person in this backfield, but okay, they stay for speed. They switch out, Trent Shirtfield with Braxton Barrios, which to me is just fine. Mike Gassicki leaves, like, you know, so far to me, like you're not moving the needle too much and what was a really, really, really good offense when Tua was healthy.

to a not healthy all the time, but they do add Mike White, I think it's a nice backup. The big question now is your offensive line, where they, I think, have been looking for improvements, they've been looking for replacements, they've been rumored around George Fant, they signed Dan Feeney, but altogether the starting five looks like it's going to be exactly the same

starting five as last year, and that starting five presented problems for them, right, tackle especially with Austin Jackson. And so if they can get a tackle deal done, or if they can get a guy early in the draft who can start, I think that that's kind of the, last big gap plugged up for this offense, but altogether, impressive offseason for the dolphins, I am continuing to buy dolphin stock.

This is interesting. This is not where I expected you to go with this, so it's good. So we didn't tell each other beforehand what teams we were picking. I'm pretty much on board with you on the defense. I mean, you could have just told me Fangio and nothing else, and you would have said, I thought if I tried to get Fangio in there, you'd go, that's not the off season. You go, all curmudgeonly shield on me. Like, that doesn't count.

Yeah, I thought that was coming. I'm in off-season mode. I'm a little more relaxed, maybe the sun is shining. I know, right? Outside, yeah. If this were like, you know, week 15 and you tried to pull something like that, I wouldn't have even let you finish. I would have just jumped down your throat immediately.

But I think that's fair to expect their defense to be much improved. I mean, you add one of the most talented defensive backs, one of the best, I shouldn't even say talented, one of the best defensive backs, period in the NFL and then one of the best defensive minds of the last, what, 10, 20 years, you're going to be better on. defense and as much as I like to make fun of you football hipsters for going overboard with David Long Jr. considering he started 26 games, I believe, in four seasons. I like David Long Jr. And it was a reasonable contract. They didn't overpay. If they would have paid in $11 million, I would have gone settle down everybody, but it was a reasonable contract. It's a talent upgrade

there. So I like what they did there. My questions are on the other side of the ball, though, here, Ben. I mean, they are picking up Tuatunga Vailoa's fifth year option. I think that became official this morning. And I did. Yeah, that's right. It's not my notes because it became official this morning. And I can't, for the life of me, figure out why they're doing that. I mean, the risk with Tuatunga Vailoa, why do you not want to just maintain some optionality there, see what he looks like this year, see how healthy he's able to stay this year, see what the offense looks like, and then do it after the season. So I don't like that move by them,

picking up, making that commitment to him for a fifth year. You obviously have the injury, the concussion stuff with Tuatunga Vailoa, which is frankly, like, uncomfortable to talk about because you can't really predict whether he's going to have another concussion. We don't even know officially how many he had. We know he had at least two, maybe three last year.

We know that two of them were separated potentially by what was it, four or five days when you had a Sunday and a Thursday. And so you just don't come. kind of know what Tutanga Vailoa's future outlook is going to be from a health perspective. And so that one isn't even that fun to talk about. I mean, not fun at all to talk about, but I don't even know if it's worth talking about because we don't really have answers to that. But the one that does give me a little pause, like how concerned are you about defenses now?

See Mike, and I don't want to do the old in all. Defenses are going to catch up to them, you know, cliche. But at the same time, we saw some stumbles from that Dolphins offense in what the last month of the season. I think you wrote about it, you talked about it on this podcast with me. You did a great job breaking it down. How concerned are you that those things that we saw on film in the last month of the season, along with the offensive line, maybe not being a great unit, are going to make this a good but not great offense. Because I think in the AFC, if all of a sudden that offense is taking even a little bit of a step back, then you're not a contender anymore.

I so here's my framework I don't think with an offensive designer like Mike McDaniel who to me we talked about this I remember on a show in season is the closest thing we've ever gotten to the next Sean McVeigh since people have been trying to find the next Sean McVeigh right

one guy has one play off of which he builds a whole series of counters and iterations and machinations and can dominate a defense with it for four quarters so closing to McVevey we've seen since McVeigh, a combination of Mike McDaniel, Tyree Kill and Jalen Waddle, just give me those three.

I don't think that offense will ever be bad. I think that there's too much intelligent play calling and understanding of where your bread is buttered from McDaniel, and then there's too much speed, which is where the bread is buttered, is with the speed of wide receiver, in Waddle and with Tariq Hill. Obviously, you have like a nightmare DefCon 8 scenario

where like Tyreek and Waddle both get hurt, but like that's every offense ever. You know, these guys go down, whatever. So that doesn't really apply. They don't have, yeah, they don't have major injury histories or anything like that. Yeah, I mean, Hill's had hamstring stuff, and he's over 30 and he's a Twitch athlete, and I think that's kind of coming down the mountain. But you see how long you can hold that off.

The reason why I say, I don't think it'll ever be bad is this. If it reaches its, like, worst place, if it gets it to, it's, you know, Tua can't figure out anything. A defense has caught up to McDaniel. At the very worst, it just becomes, like, unstable. It becomes like three and out, three and out, touchdown. You know what I was it, three and out touchdown. Like there's so much big play potential.

It's hard to imagine this offense becoming totally inert to the point where like, you know, you might look at like, you know, okay, EPA per play and then DVOA and they're like 14, 15th, they're like average. You look like drive success rate, like how many of their drives are actually good and they're like 30 first. But it doesn't matter because when they go, they score. You know what I'm saying? They run away from guys. They create these enormous plays.

And that construction of the offense is helpful for me because I go on. to look at the playoff game they lost to the bills where they had skyler thompson back there the entire offense was a mess it looked terrible it was aesthetically disgusting thompson was regularly making the wrong read wrong throws missing guys protection was horrible they scored 31 points right McDaniel's got his got he has like pole position he has conquered this area this this this competitive edge of the NFL that nobody else is in where it's like we're just going to be enormously fast and totally sell out for play action and If that means sometimes we're in third and 21,

sometimes we're in third and 21. But other times it means we scored a touchdown, baby. And that, to me, I buy that. To me, I find that compelling enough that I don't think that offense will ever fully be stopped. Okay, yeah, I think you're a little higher or a little more confident in them offensively than I am. Tua started 13 games last year, 13 the year before. You are right that if he gets injured this year, you're in better shape there with Mike White to maybe keep you afloat. They finished eighth and offensive DVOA last year.

So if you take a little step back again, now if you get to 10 or 11, is what you make up on defense enough there. So I think they're a good team. I don't think I will identify them as a team that's going to make a major leap. Like, do you like their, all right, let's do this really quick. Do you like their Super Bowl chances? And I'll just go through AFC teams, and you tell me if you like them better, the Dolphins or this team, Chiefs or Dolphins?

Chiefs. The Super Bowl. Bills or Dolphins? Bills. Bengals or dolphins. We're tight now. Probably Bengals, though. Chargers or dolphins.

I noticed you skipped over a team there. You think I don't have the list up? You think I know the team you can't skip? Well, I'm going in order what I think the chances are, yeah. I think the Dolphins have better teams to make Super Bowl and Chargers. Jaguars or Dolphins? Ravens or Dolphins. Jaguars probably going to have a home playoff game, but still.

dolphins over Ravens for sure. Jets with Aaron Rogers or dolphins? Dolphins for sure. The list I'm looking at, because I have the Jets fourth on the list I'm looking at, because it's the updated Fandall odds to win the conference. Oh, no, I'm just looking on a standings list. Okay, did I miss anybody?

No, so those are the good teams. The Fandual odds right now to win the conference, cheese plus 350, bills plus 450, Bengals plus 500, Jets plus 750, which is insane. Chargers plus 1,300. Ravens plus 1,300, Dolphins plus 1,400. I have a Dolphins plus 1,400 ticket.

To me, that's badly mispriced. Okay. I like the Chief Spills and Bengals in Tier 1, and I think it's reasonable to put, now I don't know if I'd have the dolphins above all those other teams, but I think it's fair to put them in a tier with those other teams we just mentioned. All right, we'll see what else the dolphins do this offseason. A good segue to my favorite offseason so far,

and most of this comes down to one move. but if I'm a Cincinnati Bengals fan, I am ecstatic right now that you want a big upgrade at left tackle. So I thought Orlando Brown was going to get north of $23 million per year on the open market.

I wasn't the only one. Joel Corey, former agent, does a great job at CBSSports.com. He had him, I believe, at like $4 years, 94 million. Well, Orlando Brown's market did not materialize. And so he got to be a lot. in touch with the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals did not plan to upgrade left tackle this

offseason because they didn't think they were going to be able to upgrade left tackle. They pivoted. They adjusted. They made some move. They decided, yes, this is worth doing. They get a four-year, $64 million contract for Orlando Brown at left tackle. He barely squeezes into the top 10 highest paid left tackles. This doesn't happen in the NFL where a player who is 27 years old, who has missed just one game in five seasons, who has been a plus starter. I know he's not an elite left tackle. He will have some issues in past protection against athletic edge rushers. I understand that. He's still been a plus starter in above average left tackle. He's been durable. You don't get that guy without trading for him, without drafting

him. And if he happens to hit the open market, which by the way, they almost never do, you're paying absolutely top of the market for that guy. The Bengals did not have to do that. They were able to add Orlando Brown on a very reasonable four-year contract here. And to me, their window is going to stay open if they can continue to build the best offense possible and then figure it out with your boy Luanna Rumo on defense. It goes to the last conversation we just had. Build the big bad offense. Figure it out on defense. Have a defensive coordinator who can switch things up from a game plan perspective. And I think they are set to be able to do that. So I just look at the premium positions on offense, quarterback, wide receiver, left tackle.

I mean, who's better position than the Bengals right now for the next three to four years with Joe Burrow, Jamar Chase, and Orlando Brown? And so I love what they did there. I mean, they should just be pouring resources into that offensive line. Give Burrow a chance. You have the weapons on the outside. Your window is now. And so I know they lost players on defense. Jesse Bates I like a lot. Von Bella, I like a lot. I like that they're looking ahead. You know, next year, Jonah Williams would have potentially, would have been a free agent. Well, they filled that gap now. Last year, they were looking ahead. They picked Dax Hill in the first round. I'm not telling you he's going to be a pro bowler. I liked him as a prospect,

but you have a nice option to fill one of those safety spots there, and they signed Nick Scott. So I think their defense could take a little bit of a step back, and frankly, I don't care that much because I think they should just be pouring resources into the offense. And if I were a Bengals fan, I would just be excited that you're strengthening a part of your roster here and an offense that finished third and offensive DVOA now actually has a chance to be better in 2023. You seem like you disagree. Give it to me.

I mean, I'm just looking at the Bengals tracker. This Bengals team has added Orlando Brown, Cody Ford, and Nick Scott, which I would say for the majority of our listeners who aren't sure who Cody Ford and Nick Scott are, it's a backup guard from the Cardinals, Cody Ford, and Nick Scott was the safety with the Rams. He started this past year because they didn't have anybody else who could start. He's a okay backup player. They've lost Jesse Bates, Vaughn, Hayden Hurst, Samagee P. Ryan. Internally, they've retained some special teams guys, Michael Davis, Trayman Williams, Joe Batchie, and then Jermaine Pratt,

which was a nice to retain as starting linebacker for them. they still have as pending for agents that they have yet to return Eli Apple was a starting outside corner for them Trey Flowers who is their Travis Kelsey answer Drew Sample, Max Sharping, Trent Taylor that's pretty much

Mitchell Wilcox who also played a tight end for them there are a lot of guys Overall Bengals lost a lot of talent Those are just names Mitchell Wilcox I mean come on we just name the names here what do I care? Okay okay okay I'm just saying overall

I got Jesse Bates Vaughn Bell Eli Apple. I won't say Trey Flowers as a starting defensive player but okay

I have three defensive starters leaving and they brought in Orlando Brown over Jonah Williams and that's

their only major move and you're like this is the best off season? Yeah they signed the best tackle on the market

for an undermarket price and they were already a Super Bowl contender by the way I mean you have to compare them to other Super Bowl contenders the bills

the chiefs the Eagles the Niners like these are the teams you're comparing the Bengals to it's not like they hit

to fill 10 holes on their roster. And you know, you look at some of the things like, yeah, all right, Eli Apple's a free agent, Chidobe, Awuja, you're hoping to get back healthy there. So it's not like they're just going in blind there. I think they could add another corner if they need to. Like I mentioned, you lose two safeties. Nick Scott and Dax Hill, I'm not telling you they're going to be as good. You're probably going to take a step back defensively.

But offensively, to have a top five offense and then to get better on offense, who else? Is there another team that has done that? I don't think there's another team that can say they've done that this offseason. Best tackle on the market is doing insane work for Orlando Brown. Because he's the best tackle on the market. Sure, I'll give you that. I'm not even sure I agree with it, but I'll give you that.

He's not a top 20 tackle in the league. Top 20? Are you nuts? That's crazy. Want to play the game? Wait, top 20 left tackle or top 20 overall tackle? Overall tackle. Overall.

Okay, well, why am I comparing him to overall? I'm looking at left tackles. I think he is probably a top 10, top 10 left tackle in the NFL, top 10 to 12. Trent Williams, Tehran Armstead. This is going off the dome. Ronnie Stanley. Rashon Slater, Jordan Milata, Laramie Tunsell. Colton Miller's probably better.

No, Columel is on the right. Okay, so I'm at six. Penny Sewell's on the right. Andrew Thomas on the left, that's seven. Penny Sewell's on the right, Cliff. Penney is he's talking to me in the chat. Pennyton's who was on the right. That's seven.

Naming a bunch of, now already naming a bunch of guys who missed games, by the way, who we know offensive line play. Brian O'Neill's eight. Jake Matthews. Ryan O'Neill's a right tackle. Is O'Neill right tackle?

Shoot. A lot more guys on the right than I thought when I first started this again. Jake Matthews, that'll be eight. Jake Matthews. Tyler Smith, nine. What? You're saying these definitively?

Are you nuts? Okay. No. Listen, so I'm on record. I should go back. I should probably find it because it would be an interesting conversation. I'm on record before the Bengals play the Chiefs in the playoffs this year, saying that having watched all of those defensive films on the Bengals against Kansas City,

that Lou Anarumo, the Bengals defense coordinator, has no respect for Orlando Brown. Every time he goes one-on-one hunting, he puts one of his explosive rushers, either Trey Hendrickson or Joseph Osai, which are not insanely talented names, against Orlando Brown and they always win. Like, when Lou learned that the Bengals were signing Orlando Brown to a big contract, I think his head was spinning. That's great. He can show him what his weaknesses are, what they picked on, and you have an improving player.

His weakness is that he's 350 pounds and can't move that fast. I don't know if this ain't much of a show thing. This is now just like, this is reality. I don't rate Orlando Brown highly enough to look at that contract, which the structure of the contract is nice. they can get out of it fairly quickly. There's not actually a lot of guaranteed money in it relative to what was reported.

It's like all in bonuses. They didn't guarantee any base salary, which is kind of Bengals 101. So I don't mind the deal. I just, I don't see Brown as a big enough jump over Jonah Williams to, unless you get like a good return back for Jonah, which I'd be surprised if they do,

because they're going to try to trade him. I don't see him as a big enough jump over Jonah Williams at this contract to say, oh, wow, and the Bengals problems are solved. I can't. I can't get all the way there. Oh, I completely disagree. I think there's a wide gap between those two players.

I will say, so Williams didn't have a great season 2022. 2021, John Williams was like, fine, it was a solid player. I just think you're riding a roller coaster a little bit. I think they're overreacting, unless it's like injury stuff we don't know about that they know about internally. I should jump to the end of the story here. I had the Bengals as my most interesting team because I am very interested to see if Brown details a continued change in the way they run the football.

You saw over the course of the year they became more of a power running team. Orlando Brown obviously leans into that. They were also finding a lot of success being a power running team with Samajai Pyrine and they let him walk. And like all of the buzz pre-free agency was like, what if they cut Joe Mixon?

And they didn't cut Joe Mixon. So I'm not really sure what they're doing running game-wise, which you're like, oh, who cares for the Bengals running game? The Bengals do a lot. They spent the whole season trying to figure out how to make that running game substantial enough, successful enough, and confusing enough. and, you know, versatile enough that they weren't siloed as an offense.

This was a huge problem for them early in the year, was that they could only run from under center, and they could only pass from shotgun. And accordingly, the defenses knew what was coming for the entire first four weeks, and they had to mature and grow their way out of that. So this is a very big deal, is figuring out what the Bengals are doing in the running game. So I found that very interesting.

And then defensively, as you brought up, or excuse me, you didn't bring it up because you were passing over because you were trying to cheat. As I brought up, they lost three starters, right? They lost Jesse Bates. They lost Vaughn Bell. they have the potential to lose Eli Apple. They have the potential to lose Trey Herndon, who I guess it was an important player for them when they played the Chiefs.

All of those guys potentially out the door or potentially out the door. DJ Reader, one more year in his deal, Free Agent in 2024. He's their starting defensive tackle. Logan Wilson, who they're also starting linebacker next to Trayne Pratt, who they extended. His final year of his deal is 2023. He's out the door in 2024.

Akeem Davis Gaither, who's their third linebacker. He's last year of 2023. he's out the door in 2024. Chiodo be a Woozier last year in 2020. This is our starting corner. This is their corner one. One year left in 2023, out the door in 2024.

So, the Bengals, if you had told me on February 2nd, no, that's way too early. If you told me on March 2nd, that's when free agency starts. If you had told me,

okay, predict what the Bengals do. I'd have said, okay, here's the move, here's the move. Cut Joe Mixon, sign to my chair, Piron. You're going to try to get extensions

done early for T. Higgins. who I forgot to bring up, T. Higgins, one year left on his deal, up in 2024. Tyler Boyd, one year left in 2023, up in 2024. So try to get an early extension on T. Higgins. See if you can get that Joe Burrow deal done. Get it done before Jalen Hurts. Get it done before Lamar.

Bengals love to get their quarterback deals done as soon as possible. So they're going to get that done right away. And then defensively, they're going to have to figure out kind of who to stick with and who not to stick with. You don't want to spend any money you don't have to spend. You got to hold this money for Joe Burrow, hold it for Jammar Chase and see who you need to keep on defense. they then did the exact opposite of everything I would have guessed,

which isn't to say it's bad. Like I look at this and I do kind of get it. I do think that secondary-wise, yeah, they probably can just like cycle a few guys in. Cam Taylor Britt played nice for them. They did draft Axel in the first round. Like, I don't think that's necessarily the wrong approach. I just think I really expected the Bengals to go, okay,

T. Higgins is our tent pole, and Chedobuio is our tent pole, and Joe Burroughs is our tent pole. This is what we built around it. DJ Reader to extend to those guys. And instead they were like, Jermaine Pratt. Orlando Brown, even though he's not that much better than Joe Williams, none of what Shield says.

This is our approach. And I found that to be very interesting. So our third segment, after we do teams that we think of the best off season was going to be most interesting, Bengals were my most interesting team. So I'm surprised to see them in your top slot. All right, we'll jump to that.

I'll get to my most interesting in the second, but I need a rebuttal. I mean, I don't think any of those, like they're going to extend Joe Burrow, barring something unforeseen. Like, you didn't have to do that first before doing anything else here. I mean, some of the running back situation, I would not be surprised to see them have a different running back on the roster in week one than they have right now. I mean, they could have done all those things you mentioned. And guess what?

They would have had a left tackle coming off of a injury who didn't play well anyway last year and then have no option to replace him in 2024. I mean, that's a bigger hole than anything else you just mentioned there. Cornerback, you can still address that position. So I think they still have options to adjust the different things, but if I'm prioritizing it, I'm having number one build the biggest, baddest, hardest to defend offense possible for as long as possible to extend our championship window.

I think Brown is a better player than you're giving him credit for it. I'm not even saying he's an elite left tackle. With this contract, if he's the 11th best left tackle in the NFL, guess what? That's perfectly fine. By the way, the other thing is he doesn't miss games. I mean, those players you're mentioning, Ronnie Stanley, Theron Armstrong,

that what kills seasons, what kill stretches for a lot of these teams, and your best offensive linemen goes down. You don't need all pros at all these spots. You need someone who's reliable. He might have some bad games, like I said, against athletic edge rushers. He doesn't miss games. Like you mentioned, with the run game, third in rushing DVOA last year, he's absolutely an upgrade as a run blocker there.

And so, yes, you still have to figure out who's playing running back, but like you mentioned, the run scheme made huge strides last year. it was really the only great running game without a quarterback involved. So I think they deserve some benefit. Tyrant Smith. Okay. All right. I'm sorry.

I'm sorry. Old and injured is your type. Okay. Also good. Old injured and good. Those are you the three main things I look for. Okay. All right.

Let's move on to my most interesting team of the offseason. Then we'll come back to the ones we didn't like. Tyrant Smith played four games, by the way. last year that's really okay but he didn't come up in my initial mental run through and he turns 33 December for a particular reason which he did not play I understand that

I'm just saying we're talking about talent on the field Tyrant Smith is like a Hall of Famer but that's not all that matters we're talking about right now I mean you need reliability you would rather have a younger player than an older player well you asked me to name 10 tackles better than Orlando Brown I've got like 13 at this point and you named ridiculous

ones you named right tackles injured guys you probably went back 20 years ago guys who aren't even in the league anymore. All right. Always think Brian Neal's on the left. My most interested team going forward. I can't believe I'm saying this because I normally find them to be just a huge bore is the Indianapolis cults.

And the reason is, well, I guess the main reason is because they have an erratic owner who at any time could release a video outside his private jet announcing anything and you wouldn't be sure if it was legit or if it was just some hoax or if it was TikTok. is I don't know. I'm not on TikTok, so I couldn't really land the plane there on that joke. But they got to do something at quarterback, right? I mean, they signed Gardner Minshu for $3.5 million, which I thought was a reasonable move to make to kind of give you a floor for a back-end starter or a reliable backup there. But they also hold some cards in their hand. And the biggest one is the number four overall pick. What are they going to do? Are they going to sit tight?

take an Anthony Richardson or a Will Levis, are they going to try to move up to three with the Arizona Cardinals and take whichever quarterback is left, Richardson, Levis, or if Richardson goes in the top two, maybe Stroud or Bryce Young is still available there? If they don't do that, Ben, would this surprise you at all? If they, you know, the draft doesn't go their way. Let's say another team trades up to number three and drafts whichever quarterback the Colts like the most. And whoever's left it for, whether it's Richardson or Levis, the Colts, the Colts, say, shoot, this isn't, we don't really like this guy, we're not going to draft a quarterback. Could they be the team that finally, somebody, I mean, this is just like a forgotten story now,

makes at least a call on the Mar Jackson and says, let's just have him into Indianapolis, all these stakeholders that the sports writers are obsessed with when they go to the combine. Every year, we'll take him to one of those. We'll show them the ropes of downtown Indianapolis. We'll be, you know, maybe we can, we can arrange a meeting with, Peyton Manning or something, maybe he can have lunch with Andrew Locke, who might be in town. And they say, you know what? We have this contentious relationship with Baltimore as is.

Jim Mersey's dad moving the Colts in the middle of the night on the Mayflower trucks. I didn't realize what a huge deal that still is in Baltimore until I lived there about 12, 15 years ago. Still a huge deal. Could they be the team that is a dark horse for Lamar Jackson? even if it's after the draft. So I don't know what they're going to do. I mean, they've been a team that is usually pretty content,

just sitting on their hands and not doing anything. That's kind of been their MO a lot of times, but you just feel like the pressure's on a little bit more this year. And whether it's in the draft, whether it's after the draft, they have to make a big move at quarterback somewhere along the lines. And maybe we will wake up to a wild headline involving the Colts in the quarterback and a quarterback at some point. What do you think?

I absolutely think they got to do a Lamar thing. Even if you're just poking the bear, right? You got to show that you're serious about making a big move at quarterback. You have to put, somebody's got to put pressure on the Ravens too. Like, you want to make it, make sure that they actually have to pay Lamar legit money.

Like if they, you know, we don't talk about this because it seems like 10,000 steps away. But if the Ravens get Lamar on $32.4 million, it's a great value on a contract deal. right? That's a nice little competitive advantage for a year. Go sign somebody. I mean, it kind of is, but all that $32 million goes against their salary cap for this year, and they kind of, you know, they have to wait, like they can't make moves the first week of free agency,

knowing that they're going to have that. They're also going to have an unhappy quarterback. They're also going to have a locker room going, why are you treating the quarterback like this? So, all right, maybe a little bit of an advantage, yes, but I think there are probably going to be a lot of things working against them in that scenario. but sorry, go ahead. When you look, actually, like, I'm looking at capits now for 2023, and Lamarst would be third. So, never mind.

It's not as good as I thought it was. It's not as big of a capite. Salary-wise, it, yeah, they're paying less out of their pocket. That might change pending Rogers, but still. So, yeah, I think the Colts got to do that. I wouldn't say the Colts are, like, interesting. I would say, like, the Colts of the ability to become so. There's potential energy in this machine.

There's not at this time any kinetic energy. There's not any, like, nothing is happening where I'm like, I am engaged. Mostly I'm just looking at it like, this is very, very sad. Now, you know, if you're trying to win the interesting game, they should have kept Jeff Saturday, man. I'd be more interested if this were Jeff Saturday. Just throwing money at every offensive line and he can find, but that's not the game you're trying to win.

Yeah, but as of right now, like in terms of teams that have any chance of making a Lamar move, which, you know, we talked about this situation so many times. of the last month. And I was fairly confident. Like I told you if Lamar gets to the non-exclusive tag, I was like, teams will be tripping over themselves to sign him. And then the exact opposite thing happened. So yeah, come to actual point taken for correct predictions. If there's a team right now that has a percent chance over five, five percent of making

a Lamar off right now, I think there's just one and I think it's the Colts. So I would hope to see that they do it. I just don't, I'm not going to hold my breath at this point. Because it's very clear that Lamar's situation is a lot different than I expected it to be. It felt very weird writing the team Colts next to the word interesting Because I generally have not found them very interesting Have some respect, come on Yeah, I was looking at who could, you know,

maybe make a move here in the next month or so So that's, that was my most interesting team going forward. All right, let's circle back to an off season that we have not liked so far. Who do you have for this one? I'm pretty sure we have the same team. Okay. Do we want to say it at the same time? You want to do a one, two, three, three, three, three.

You got to do three, two, one, and then say it at zero. All right, so we say it after one, three, two, one name. Yes, because whenever you say, all right, on three, there's always confusion. Do you do one, two, it? I'm consistently confused by this exercise in all aspects of my life. Right, this is why you always say, okay, count down from three, because then everybody knows you say it on zero. All right, so do you want to, are you counting us down? All right, so you say three, two, one, bam, right?

Yes, that's what we're doing. And that'll be the way we do it for the rest of time. Okay. Three, two, one, Broncos. Raiders. Oh, Raiders. A little, uh, uh, uh, that was a sleeper. I wouldn't have guessed.

Okay, so. Your boy Marcus Eps went to the Raiders. I am very interested to hear what it is that you say. Um, Broncos, I think that, you know, whenever we, um, uh, whenever we talk about free agency winners and losers, there's always a instinct to say team that has a lot of money did well because they acquired players. And to an extent that's legit, to an extent that's real. I do think Michael

Glinchy at right tackle is better than the alternatives that the Broncos had playing right tackle last season and had a right tackle this off season. So like, yes, in the sense that there are new players in the team and they're better players, the team is improved and they spent a lot of money. With that set... Mike McGlinchie, who by the way is making more money than Orlando Brown. Sorry, continue. Right, which Mike McGlinchie is worse in Orlando Brown. How you feel? We feel good? You feel better? Oh, yeah. I agree with me. Yeah. That's easy. Yeah.

Okay. Okay. With that said, three years, $48 million for Zach Allen, a defense van with the Cardinals who played with Vance Joseph and is a low sack, low pass rush player. Three years, $18 million for Alex Singleton, who's a player that they signed to a one-year deal, a functionally vent minimum last year, had a bunch of tackles in a Gero Eberos defense. Not a Gero Eberos defense anymore, but Singleton three years, 18 million. Chris Mannerts, right, which like three, three, million who cares but still Chris Manners is a titan who doesn't catch Mike McClintchy five years 87.5 million dollars uh about 50 million dollars guaranteed on that deal

ben powers stepping in to replace doll and riser who they let walked for your 52 million dollar samaji pyrine to your contract which i want to say is like five six million i don't know the numbers in front of me three point seven five i three point seven five thank you to report it yeah yeah yeah i don't see one impact player i i don't i i if this were a team that had stars and they were looking to kind of elevate scrubs to middle tier players. Okay, sure, you still spend a ton of money to do it, but whatever. But this is not a team that has that, right? This team has at premium positions, Pat Sertan, which is sick.

Don't get me wrong. Loving that. But then other than that, like edge rusher, they traded Bradley Chubaway and they're trying to rely on Randy Gregory to kind of be a star rusher. And I don't think that Randy is that consistent of a star pass rusher. have at wide receiver, Cortland Sutton, and Jerry Judy, neither of whom are stars at those premium positions, but they're also talking about maybe trading Jerry Judy away, and Cortland Sun's coming off of injury.

Elephant in the room, let's talk about the most premium position, let's talk about quarterback. Russell Wilson is not a star player. Left tackle, Garib Bulls, I think he's fine. Ah, Garib Bulls, better than Lander Brown. Garrett Bulls, I think he's fine. I don't think he's a star player. So this is not a team that had a star's construction. They had, I think, a lot of, like, B-to-C-tier players outside of C-Tier and Simmons.

and then they just added a bunch more B and C tier players. This is like a lot, a lot, a lot of money spent for a team that is anticipating taking on an enormous cap hit for Russell Wilson. A cap hit of, you know, if they do the June 1st thing, could be upwards of like $80 million over two years. Enormous dead cap. Spending so much cash to, I think,

have a better chance of going nine and eight in a division they have no chance of winning because Patrick Bahams is in it. I understand why they took this approach because Sean Payton said, this is my roster now, these are the players I want, we're going to run the football,

I need star tackles, this is how we're going to do it. I get it, I don't think it's appropriate. I don't think it's correct. I think three years from now, the Broncos are going to have a young quarterback, be in a rebuilding phase,

and be looking to get out of Zach Allen's deal, and be looking to get out of my McGlinjie's deal and have no, nothing that happened over the last few, two years to be like, this is good, it was good we signed McClintchy for this, for this week 18 game against the Chiefs,

that if we won it, we would have almost made the wild card round of another thing happen. Like, I just don't, I can't find the juice that's worth the squeeze. Why not just hold on to this cap space, roll it over, and be better prepared for the next era of Broncos football. I thought this was irresponsible spending.

Yeah, I agree with you for the most part. I mean, this is the free agency hall that is most likely, you know, it might be this time next season, but certainly in two seasons, you're going to look back and go,

yeesh, boy, they really spent a lot of money. I mean, they were so aggressive. Like, they could have exercised a little patience. Like Ben Powers, like you mentioned, 12.9 million per year. Isaac Sayamalu got, what, $8 million per year? I mean, Mike McGlinchie gets, I mean, you really, it was like Mike McGlinchie, you treated him as a have-to-have-it type right tackle, paying him at the top of the market, $17.5 million per year when he's had issues in past protection,

he's had durability issues there. So I just was surprised by how aggressive they were. And, you know, I can kind of get it because they've given up all this draft capital for Russell Wilson and for Sean Payton that they feel like they need some players in here. It doesn't feel to me like this is something that's going to go smoothly in year one. I mean, I made the joke. I think last week we talked about it. Like, are we going to wake up to a Jared Stidham is taking first team reps this week in practice or splitting first team reps with Russell Wilson in practice type scenario? I mean, all their moves seems.

to indicate not a confidence with Sean Peyton that he can turn Russell Wilson around, but rather a, hey, let's take stuff off of Russell Wilson's play. And by the way, that could be a perfectly reasonable approach. I will say this about Peyton. I mean, he is very impressive in his way to adjust and coach to the talent he has. I mean, when they had Drew Breeze go down and they were winning game after game with backup quarterbacks there, they were winning with defense and special teams. And so he might just look at this roster right now and say, you know what, It's not going to be a one-year turnaround. This is our best chance to win.

We're going to run the ball a little bit more. We're going to play some defense. We're going to scheme some stuff up. We're going to have good special teams, all these things. And that's going to allow us to be competitive and maybe compete for a playoff spot. But I would agree with you. I mean, there's another side of this where just because a guy was a great coach and I've been on the record, like I think Sean Payton is one of the best coaches we've seen here in the last 20, 30 years.

It doesn't always mean that in that next stop, you know, it might be a little bit different. at the next stop and you might not see the same guy. So Zach Allen, I didn't hate that one as much as you did. I mean, at least there it's a young, you know, potentially ascending player at a kind of premium position that if things work out, he's giving you some pass rush and playing well. I would not have probably paid him that kind of money. But the other ones, the McClinties and, you know,

the other ones you mentioned, the man hurts. It was just like, all right, we're getting a little bit too aggressive here for the Broncos and probably not moving the needle. So I'm with you. Yeah, I have no points. My main thing, my main thing, I agree. I don't mind Zach Allen too much in a vacuum. My main thing is that Draymond Jones,

who was like a great, like, talking about, again, like star player at premium position. Like, Draymond Jones is one of the best past rushing defense tackles in the league, right? He's like, I think, fringe top 10. He signed for like a little bit more than Zach Allen did. 17, yeah.

With the Seahawks. Just keep Draymont Jones, man. You can just keep the good, player that's here, even though you weren't the one who got him here, even though you coached a different guy elsewhere, and you'd be fine. But coaches like guys, they know. And that always, every free agency, I forget. And then every free agency, you see Zach Pascoe get a two-year deal with the Cardinals. And you're like, what? And then it's like, well, because John Gannum knew him from Philly, baby. They've talked before. Ergo, got to sign him. Speaking of which, let's move on

to the Las Vegas Raiders. Wow. Transitions. I mean, that one just fits. too well. I might have had another point, but I'm like, no, that's, that's, we're starting there. All right. So here's, I see all kinds of red flags with the Las Vegas Raiders. And it's not necessarily just with the individual deals. I mean, they signed Jimmy Garapelo. It's really like a one year, $34 million deal or a two year $48.5 million deal. It's in line with guys like Derek Carr and Kirk Cousins. They could have gone cheaper with Jacoby Brissette, but whatever, it's not that big of a deal. Jacoby Myers even, three years, $33 million, that's like fine value for a useful starting wide receiver. I don't have a big issue there. Here's my issue, Ben. We, we zoom out

and I just see a directionless franchise where if you are a Raiders fan, you're looking at the moves, and maybe this is, maybe I'm not answering this question totally correctly because it's a combination of kind of this year, last year in season, last off season. So the sort of thing where if I were to do it, I would be immediately yelled at and chastised, but you can do it. It's fine. Interesting. Interesting. That's correct. Cliff, make sure you mute that and edit that out from Ben from the podcast. So no one hears. So you zoom out and look at the big guy. I mean, it goes to exactly what you mentioned, the familiarity thing. And specifically when you have an ex-patriots coach, it really hits a little harder where Garapolo, Jacoby Myers, last offseason, Chandler Jones, all their big moves

our guys with Patriots ties. And then you have this report from Vic Taffer from the athletic had a line in his column, and he's covered the Raiders forever. The Raiders Brass didn't feel that car fit their culture. Uh-oh. We're getting culture talk. Ah. Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait.

Derek Car's been on the team for a decade. I know. That's what I'm saying. But Josh McDaniels, Josh McDaniels felt like he didn't fit their culture. This is Josh McDaniels, by the way, who is now 17 and 28. in 45 games as a head coach for a winning percentage of 3708. You have an NFLPA report, Ben,

where the Raiders' lowest-graded category was their coaching staff. Player respondents, quote, felt that head coach Josh McDaniels is less likely to listen to his players and keeps them for longer hours than other head coaches around the league. Again, not an issue if your team is winning

and things are going well, but Josh McDaniels has not been winning. Josh McDaniels now has four seasons away from New England as a play caller. Those offenses have ranked 18th, 17th, 30th, and 17th in offensive DVOA. And now I'm supposed to believe that Jimmy Garapolo taken away from Kyle Shanahan and Debo and George Kittle. Now he's going to go to a new place and he's going to perform as well.

Oh, and by the way, he's going to stay healthy for like the third time in his career. Nope, I don't think that's going to happen until you zoom out and I see a team that is just like make it, you know, they don't really have any plan. I mean, last off season, they said, we're not rebuilding, you know, we're going to keep Carr, we're going to trade for Devante Adams, we're going to come in and compete right away. Well, that didn't work. You didn't win games in 2022, and you're probably not going to win games in 2023. And so you can have that revisionist history where you say, last off season, they probably could have traded Derek Carr and gotten something in return. They could have not pulled the trigger on a Devante Adams trade,

who, by the way, he's going to be 31 in 2024 the next time you might have a chance to compete. You would have had more draft capital to potentially move up for a quarterback in this year's draft. Remember, the Raiders, I think, have been reported or at least rumored to have been making calls or involved in trying to move up for a quarterback and do that deal that the Panthers did. But they didn't have the same draft capital and they did not make that move. So I just don't know what is their path to relevancy going forward. were they expecting Tom Brady to come in this offseason? Do they think? Well, Joshua Daniels knows him too.

He knows him. So he would take him. Maybe they'll do something. Maybe they'll make a move during the draft and they'll get a good quarterback, you know, for a longer term solution. Maybe they'll surprise me and the offense will be great with Jimmy Garoppolo next season. But I see a team that really, like I said, directionless does not have a plan and a lot of red flags from kind of coaching management direction under Josh McDaniels.

Your thoughts? Yeah, I see what you're saying. It definitely is like, if we just look off-season in a vacuum, I don't mind the Jimmy contract. I think it's fine for what he is. I like the Jacoby-Meyers contract, to be honest. Like, I'm okay with it. You know, bring back Amir Abdullah, whatever.

There's kind of their major moves where Carr and Waller out, Garapolo and Jacoby-in, and while I don't think that's like a good off-season. I don't think it's like terrible when you widen the scope to be like okay Raiders what's the plan yeah that's where you start arriving at the point where nothing makes any sense there's there's so much if you had just figured this out a year earlier in the Raiders history exactly that it just it feels so much cleaner just in terms of like you know okay gruden situation with like being the enormous contract having the coach tenure that he did but then you know in the Dan Slatter investigation, Gruden's emails come out, and then Gruden's no longer the head coach for the Raiders.

Like that sequence being unanticipatable, notwithstanding, knowing that Mike Mayock wasn't really the guy for the job, if you kind of figured that out. Moving on from Derek Carr, when his value was a lot higher, when you were in a position where it was, it was cap-wise, going to force you to release him, so it was the own contract that you signed and not being in a position to trade him. Darren Waller, like, there's pretty solid reporting that they could have included Darren while they're in the Devante Adams trade and then didn't and then a year later traded up for a third arm pick to the Giants. There's just, there's so much like if you guys had just had a little bit

better vision, just a little bit better patience and a little bit of a longer understanding, most especially with like who the enemies in your division are and kind of what that means for your team building approach, this could have looked so much prettier. So yeah, like your roster's fine, but what were you aiming for? Not fine. you missed and hit fine, and so it doesn't feel as good. You're kind of stuck in the middle, but there is potential for explosiveness if there is, if there are issues with the coaching staff and the players. And yeah, remember, they extended Darren Waller just before last season there.

So yes, if they had some foresight last offseason, they could be in a totally different spot. Let's finish it with our extra point taken. Like I said, we're going to go through the divisions. We're going to make our picks. Now, looking ahead to 2023, we will change these many times over the course of the next several months, and then we'll go on the record August or September with what we actually think. I will never. And we'll laugh at our March selves.

I will never be changing. This is it? You're good. I like that. It's less work to do over the many months ahead. Yeah, but then when we need a concept for a show in June, then we have to change them. It can be which of your division picks do what you most like to change from March. All right. AFC East, I got the Bills. Who do you got?

Yeah. Fandall right now, bills plus 125, Jets plus 230, Dolphins plus 370, Patriots plus 700. I think Bill's easy. I do have a Dolphins bet in. I think bills and dolphins are the two best teams in that division, independent of where Aaron Rogers goes. Are the Patriots going to finish in last place in the AFC East? Yeah. Okay, there we come. AFC North, I got the Bengals. I mean, I can't just do that whole segment on the Bengals and not pick the Bengals, so I like the Bengals definitely in that division. Bengals is to me a pretty easy look. I don't think the Steelers are getting measurably better. I don't think the Ravens, even if they get a little more back, are going to be like...

What is the best case scenario for the Ravens? Can we talk about that really quickly? Like, what is the scenario where Ravens fan is feeling good on week one going into next season? I mean, is it... I don't even know what it is. If he plays on the tag, that's going to be such an awkward, uncomfortable situation. Best case scenario is it's... Lamar Ravens extension.

Contract. Okay. Yeah. Which is a non-zero chance. It's between zero and two percent, but it is non-zero. That's right. The best scenario is not that somebody signs him to an offer sheet and they have to match it. The best case scenario is that no one signs him to an offer sheet if you're a Ravens fan. And then you come back to the table.

You butter him up and you find a deal that works for both sides on a long-term extension. Yes. Even that, I don't know if, I mean, I think there's going to be some awkward hurt feelings, but that's probably the best case scenario for that. Which I was looking into this, and I don't have the details exactly right. I know that obviously in mid-July, there's the franchise tag extension deadline, which is you have up until that time to sign the players on whom you've placed the franchise tag to an actual extension, and then you don't have to worry about them playing on the tag.

I was talking with somebody with an agent who was telling me that if they're stuck with him on a one-year deal, like on the non-exclusive tag figure, which is $32.4 million, they can still negotiate a different figure for the one year. I don't understand how that's going to go, though, so don't call me on that. But, like, there's a lot of time left for the Ravens and Lamar to still keep going back and forth this whole thing. It's the moral of the story. Although we've been saying that for, like, two years. Yeah. I think it's Bengals. And, like, I refuse to engage interest in the Browns, who, like, talk about, like, a team that's just bungled off-season after off-season. The defensive roster on the Browns is

atrocious. Atrocious. All right. They do have Jim Schwartz now, though. Jimbo. Love him. Nice coordinator. I thought they've made some okay moves

on the defensive side of the ball. They signed like, no one's great, but they signed some. Dalvin Tomlinson. The Dalvin Tomlinson signing is a great example of a team being on tilt, where they were like, I got a Javon Hargrave, Fletcher Cox is going to go to one of these big names.

and then all these defensive tackle started signing for huge money. And so they chucked a ton of money at Dalvin Tomlinson, right? And they were like, see? Big money defensive tackle. It's like, yeah, but he's not the other guys. Like, you just gave him a lot of money to make him seem like the other guys. Dalvin's a fine player. She doesn't need that, at that price tag, it's like, all right, you're trying to make him something.

He's not. Yeah, I had him at $10 or $11 million. I think he got over $14 million. Yeah, $15 million. All right. That is the AFC North. AFC South. Jags.

Yeah, I got the Jags. Who else? They're going to be a trendy pick. Well, the Titans, would Titans add Lamar? What do you think about, they would be your favorite team. We get a little Mike Rable and Lamar in there to get, they have no other options at a quarterback. Should they just do it?

I mean, the fire sale. They've cleared a bunch of cap space, right? The fire sale in Tennessee is insane. Do we want to do starting Titans offensive line? Or starting to have an offense right now? Ryan Tan Hill, Derek Carr, or Derek Henry, excuse me, Derek Henry. Receivers are Traylin Burke's, Nick Westbrook-Ekina, and Kyle Phillips, Titan is Chega Conquo.

Who's like a little fun last year? I love it. Offensive line. Offensive line. Left to right. Andre Dillard, Daniel Brunskill, Aaron Brewer, Dylan Raidens, Nicholas Petit Frere. Brother! It is scary stuff on the Titans' death start right now.

I think the Jags are a runaway favorite with that division. Pending Lamar entering it. Texans aren't here. about competing this year. Titans aren't serious about competing this year. Colts are a total mess. Jaguars are in a great spot right now. I might be willing in August to give the Texans a little buzz with a little Demiko Bryce Young combination, if that's what it is. I'm going to definitely fall in that combination at some point. Right now if you look if you look fandal-wise, the strongest favorite to win their division is the Niners, minus 160 in the NFC West. Next is the Chiefs minus 155. The only other team

with minus odds, odds greater than 50% to win their division. Jaguars, minus 145. Dougie P, getting it done. Get the trust. Let's go to AFC West. I'm not picking anyone other than the Chiefs. What are you nuts? Yeah, we all learned our lesson last year, or at least I did.

NFC East. Eagles, Cowboys, so you've got Giants. You know, Giants fans get very offended nowadays. I like the Eagles there still. I like the Eagles. I will say that Eagles Cowboys pretty close to a coin flip for me right now. Cowboys are still... Not with the way Mike McCarthy's been talking this offseason.

Yeah, it's true. The McCarthyization of the Cowboys is going to bite me in the butt on that one. Their player moves have been fine. Yeah, if you told me the player moves and then they still had Kellyn Moore and they weren't talking about, hey, we're going to run the ball all this, then I would be more with you. You had Gilmore. You had Brandon Cooks.

but I would be frightened if I were a Cowboys fan of what Mike McCarthy is going to do to that team next season. All right. NFC North. Who you got? Lions. Me too. Who do you have second? Bears.

We sure the Packers are. Now, I would have to read up on Bill Simmons's complete Ewing theory from back in the day, but I might be the first ringer staffer who's going to jump on board that, hey, Jordan Love might be kind of good. And this must end up being a good thing. I tell you. I tell you. The work the Packers Brass is doing to talk about how much they love Jordan Love is incredible. I would say in the last month, I've had 19 people with some degrees of separation from the Packers' front office and coaching staff.

Tell me how good Jordan Love looks, which means one of two things. One, Jordan Love looks good. Two, Jordan Love looks bad. And off of what I've seen, I'd lean to the first one. I think he's interesting. Yeah, I agree. I just, I just, I go and I go to Packers.com and I go to coaching staff and I scroll down to defensive coordinator and I see Joe Barry and I go, oh, we're not serious yet and then I move on.

Well, maybe they're offense. But who can you call in Detroit to make them the Lamar team for me? Anybody, send a text, send a blank email, something? Yeah, find ownership. I think you were the first one who actually mentioned this idea and that's when I loved it. And then I'm just like, yes. We just got to, we have to buy enough forward F-150s, you and I, to, own 51% of the Ford company.

And then from there, hostile takeover the Lions. This is how business works, by the way. John all this down. And then we own the Lions. And then we trade for Lamar. And we have a lot of trucks. Look at those NFC teams, Ben. And then put Lamar on the Lions.

We're already saying they're the favorites in their division. And now, again, we know Jared Gough played well last year. You don't have to tell us. But you add a nice, young, running element to that offense. and oh my gosh, that is absolutely a favorite fit. In terms of teams, we're about to talk about another one here, but two other teams that I was close to giving best off season to, lions were up there, man.

The facelift in the secondary, Cameron Sutton, Emmanuel Mosley, who's hurt all the time. I know we can't trust Emmanuel Mosley. Johnson Gardner Johnson. I get John Kaminsky back. Alex Anzolone back is like, eh, but I get it, right? You kind of keep linebacker secured and whatever. swap out Evan Brown for Graham Glasgow when he comes back to Detroit.

Lions are, lines are settled in place. We need a little bit more of a punch along that defensive line. Get Leonard Floyd in the building? Nah, I'm cooking with gas. Yeah, the Montgomery signing was weird to me, but I would agree with you with the rest of them. And by the way, they have the number six overall pick.

What's weird about the Montgomery signing? Six million a year for David Montgomery. That's nuts to me with the running back market. What did you know what's got? But it's fine. He got less than that. Three year, 12 million. Yeah.

Three, four. I don't know. Montgomery, statistically, all his numbers from last year are like legitimately terrible. If you look at success rate, all that stuff. At the same time, I watch David Montgomery

and I kind of like him. So he could have a very... He's a solid player. I have no issue with the money. He could have a very good season for them. I just thought that was a very, very aggressive, unnecessary move. at running back.

All right. NFC. Oh, these NFC South odds. What is going on here? These are surprising me. You got in front of you? Read them out. Saints plus 115.

Panthers plus 270. Falcons plus 400 bucks plus 500. If you don't own a Falcons plus 400 ticket, you're outside your mind. Let's go dirty birds. And who's starting quarterback for them week one?

Who do you have? Desmond. Desmond Ritter. Okay. Baby. Listen, again, talk about good off seasons. Falcons, Jesse Bates, into the building, improvement in its safety, trade for Johnna Smith, whatever, who cares, like seven-thron pick, you know them, it's fine. David On Yamada, fine player. He's in the building, improves defense to tackle where they were extremely weak last season.

But then, to me, like the feather in the cap, keeping both Chris Lindstrom and Caleb McGarry was something I did not think they were going to be able to achieve, especially after they paid Chris Lynch from the amount of money they did, which one of the reasons why they didn't get best off-season for me is because they're paying Chris Lindstrom a lot of money. But once they did that, I thought they couldn't keep Caleb McGarry, and they were able to. This office line is really solid. This team is just enormous, right? They bring Mack Hollins in from the Raiders. You go and you look at the height weight of the starting skill position players for the Falcons, right? You just, Drake London's like 6-4, Kyle Pitt, 6-5, Jono Smith is like 6-3. Matt Collins is like 6-3.

Carderl-Patterson, Tyler Algier, like both 6-2. Or no, Alger isn't, but Patterson's 6-2. Big football team. We love us a big football team, Sheel. You, you, may. I thought you were going to pick the Falcons because I saw you tweet about them. And I'm not on board. Like, I like those players.

Jesse Bates, you're paying top of the market. Chris Lindstrom, you're paying away at the top of the market. I mean, Lindstrom and McGarry are making, what, like, $32 million. Is that a, I don't know, is that like a great, it's a very good right side of the offensive line? Is it like elite, level? I don't know. Again, I said this at the time. Lindstrom would have been a first team all pro for me this year,

which you've got one year, so you're projecting a little bit, but still, I think we'll start to use the E word around Chris Lindstrom a lot more frequently over the next couple years. Okay, yeah, no, I believe in keeping your, if you don't have a lot of great players

and you have young, very good, you know, young great players who are durable, go ahead and keep them. I just wonder, like, is it going to be 20, 27, and they're going to be like, this isn't the year we're going to make a move for a quarterback yet. Like, I don't know, how many years do you give a new regime?

This is year three. Like year one, you know, they could have taken a flyer on Justin Fields or Mack Jones. I'm not saying like, yes, they 100% should have done that. Year two, there were not a lot of great quarterback options in the draft. Year three, they have a chance to at least explore Lamar Jackson. They're not doing that. Like, at some point, you got to do something to add a quarterback unless you believe Desmond Ritter and Taylor Heineke is the kid of your success.

So I'm not as high on them as you are. I kind of like the Panthers a little bit. Panthers are good. honestly they're at number two at the quarterback there Who's starting a quarterback for that field? Yeah, I like both those prospects whichever one they want to take.

Stroud or Young, I feel good about it. Trust on the rookie. I'll put it to this way. If you take Panthers plus 270, I don't mind it. If you take Falcons plus 400, you're an enlightened soul. If you take bucks plus 500, I'm not there with you, but I can kind of get it. There's a lot of talent on the team.

I don't think that's crazy. Right. If you take Saints plus 115, we have to have a. conversation. I mean, what is that, that is crazy to me. How are there, how are their odds that high? Name recognition. Name recognition. Think about this. Think about like,

just like your average NFL fan. How many more players they can name on the Saints relative to the Falcons? But who's like actually the better team? It's coin foot. Dennis Allen being 15 and 388 with a 283 winning percentage. I think that has to come in play at some point. Yeah, I would, yeah, that is a bad bet. The, uh, I'm not saying they can't win it, but those. should be much more even than they are. All right. Last one, and then we'll finish out.

The Niners at heavy favorites in the NFC West, correct? Yeah. Yeah, Niners minus 160. And I think that Seahawks plus 450 deserves a little love. But Rams Cardinals, brother, you couldn't make me with a 10-foot pole. The Cardinals are by a mile the longest odds to win their division among all teams. Plus, $2,400 on Fandul. Next closest is the Raiders at plus $1,300.

The Cardinals are a travesty in terms of the 53-man roster right now. And that coaching staff could not be greener. So it's barely a three-horse race. The Rams look like they're passing on this year and doing cap relief and doing that whole thing anyway. So Niners Seahawks. I mean, invariably, there'll be a week 13 game where the Cardinals beat the Niners because it's the West and that's how it works. But all together, they're two-horse race.

All right, let me shoot my shot here to close this out. So at this time next year, we will be talking about it. a Kyler Murray trade because the Cardinals will be able to draft Caleb Williams with the number one overall pick

100% after having finished with the worst record in the NFL so we'll have to find a team for Kyler Murray next off season. All right, good look ahead.

All right, that'll do it for extra point taken on the Ringer NFL feed with me and Benjamin Solek. Thank you to Cliff Augustine for producing additional production supervision by Connor Nevins

and Arjuna Aram. probably back soon on the Ringer NFL.